Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/09/17

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 906 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

Current radar trends show virga across south central North Dakota
with current low POPs looking good for this situation. Only minor
changes to current forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

Low level dry air across central North Dakota probably
contributing to the lack of rain reaching the ground this evening.
The CAM models generally limiting the QPF across teh region to
just spotty showers. Trended the POPs down into the lower 20s
across the central and left around 30 southwest. Rest of teh
forecast looks ok.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

Breezy conditions in western and central areas will subside through
the evening. Meanwhile, SPC has highlighted the south in a general
thunderstorm outlook and current CAMs are also hinting at the
possibility of a thunderstorm or two in the south. However, while
shuffling through convective parameters in the 19Z RAP and 12Z
GFS/ECMWF, the ingredients needed for thunderstorm development are
lacking. There is little indication that thunderstorms will
occur. Though, South Dakota does have a higher probability and a
stray storm or two may cross the border.

Sunday, a surface low will scoot across NE/SD. The majority of the
associated precipitation will impact SD and southern MN. Though
southern areas of ND will have chances for rain, far southern areas
will have the best chances. Breezy conditions are also expected
Sunday. The current model suite of the GFS/SREF/RAP40/ECMWF are in
good agreement on surface winds phasing with mid level winds of
around 20 mph with gusts of 35 mph. Nothing too crazy is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

Warm with occasional chances for rain sums up the long term.

Monday starts off the forecast period with below average highs in
the 40s. Though a warmup will commence Tuesday with seasonably warm
conditions prevailing through the remainder of the period.

On the side of precipitation, progressive flow aloft will lead to
occasional chances for rain. An impulse in the southwest flow aloft
will result in chances for rain Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow and/or
a rain snow mix will be possible during the early morning hours of
Wednesday. Also, an upper level low will create chances for rain
Thursday night through Friday. The aforementioned low is wobbly thus
the where/when is uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

A region of surface high pressure remains centered across
southwest North Dakota at 6 PM CDT. A cold front extended across
the southern Prairie Provinces of Canada. The cold front will
move through the state late tonight and Sunday with very limited
weather but bring a wind shift to the northwest. VFR is expected
at all TAF sites through the 00Z TAF period. Only weather in the
TAFS was VCSH (Vicinity Showers) at KDIK Sunday morning.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...WAA




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Forks ND

 710 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

considerable high and mid level cloud cover over the area. Actual
cold front/wind shift just exiting the forecast area. Expect
thicker band of mid clouds DVL-GFK-HCO region to spread southeast
tonight. Any sprinkles have moved into SE Manitoba so dry tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

Sprinkles in the north this evening and more substantial
precipitation in the south later on will be the main issues for
the period.

Surface trough axis has moved into the central CWA, with some
light radar returns just behind the wind shift. However, no obs
sites are reporting precip and web cams seem dry. Will continue to
keep an isolated sprinkle mention going this evening across the
north but think that most is evaporating before reaching the
ground.

Later tonight, southwesterly flow aloft continues with the nose of
a 300mb jet streak starting to approach the Dakotas. The RAP and
HRRR have some light QPF developing over south central ND
overnight, but fizzle it out before it reaches our counties.
Continued to keep some low POPs in the far south to blend with the
neighbors, but am not too excited about seeing anything measurable
until later on Sunday. Tomorrow, the cold front will be pushing
through the CWA, with the main surface low over eastern Neb. The
Canadian run still brings some precip into our southern counties
by tomorrow afternoon, although many of the other deterministic
models have the drier northerly flow winning out and keeping much
of the precip south. However, any little shift in the system could
bring some more precip to our southern counties, so will keep some
chance POPs going. Any precip will be mostly rain, as Showalters
stay positive behind the cold front.

As for temperatures, we will still be under the thermal ridge
overnight with plenty of high and mid clouds. Will continue to
keep lows fairly mild in the mid 30s north to mid 40s south.
Readings on Sunday will be tricky with the cold front coming
through. For now have mid 40s in the north to low 60s in the south
but will have to watch for any non-diurnal temperatures during the
day tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

Monday through Tuesday...Temps will be cooler for the early week
period as high pressure builds in behind the front. Readings will
be near to slightly below average for Monday but back up above on
Tuesday as a surface trough develops to our west and southerly
winds kick back in. The domestic models bring another shortwave
trough/upper low into western ND by Tuesday night, although the
ECMWF and other ensemble member lag a bit with that system. Will
keep some low POPs going for now and adjust for timing later.

Tuesday night through Saturday will continue the run of above normal
temperatures for the second week of April. Expect temps to max out
in the 50s and low 60s, which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal, and
lows in the 30s. Overall dry weather looks to continue with some 30
to 40% chance PoPs confined to Wednesday and Friday as 500mb short
waves move across the region. The system on Friday appears stronger
and with a track across southern Manitoba could bring higher winds
to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 707 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

VFR thru the fcst pd. Considerable high and mid level clouds
tonight with some clearing mainly north Sunday. Winds west-
northwest tonight more north on Sunday 5-15 kts tonight and 12-25
kts Sunday

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

The river at Windygates appears to have crested and is receding. The
upstream locations from Windygates has also receded and the flows
will continue downstream on the Pembina River. Walhalla appears to
be cresting below moderate flood stage and will slowly recede over
the coming days. The stage at Neche remains in major flood and will
remain so through the next 5 days.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...Riddle
HYDROLOGY...Hopkins




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

 725 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

As with Friday`s forecast, mid/high level moisture kept temperatures
from rising into the 70s across eastern Minnesota, and parts of west
central Wisconsin as of 3 pm. However, once the clouds thinned out,
temperatures quickly rose into the 70s, with a few lower 80s in west
central Minnesota. Slowly before sunset this evening, there will be
a period of more sun than clouds. Therefore, 70s are still likely in
eastern Minnesota prior to sunset.

Moisture has begun to surge northward this afternoon as dew points
have risen into the 40s, with a few near 50 along the Iowa border. A
cool front, or mainly a wind shift line in the eastern Dakotas this
afternoon, will move eastward and stall in southern Minnesota by
Sunday morning. This front and associated elevated instability,
along with strong isentropic lift behind this front at mid-levels,
will likely be the focus late tonight for shower/thunderstorm
development. Precipitation chances for late tonight, and into Sunday
are highly dependent on this frontal position, and elevated
instability/mid-level isentropic lift. Any a slight deviation from
those positions/strength of the aforementioned
front/energy/instability will reflect higher or lower on
precipitation chances. This is evident in the latest RAP/HRRR
which has shifted the onset of precipitation later in the night,
and further to the northwest across west central/central
Minnesota. However, the EC continues the southerly trend of the
frontal boundary across far southern Minnesota/northern Iowa
Sunday morning. This contrast between the models places the higher
precipitation either along the Iowa border, or in central
Minnesota. This forecast is a high bust potential based on these
scenarios as if the front is further south, more widespread
precipitation will affect the southern half of Minnesota, compared
to central Minnesota with the northern bias of the front. Not
only does this create problems with precipitation chances, but for
temperatures as well.

Another element to this forecast is the possibility of severe
weather, especially along the Iowa/Minnesota border where the
frontal boundary is likely to stall or be near the area. MLCAPE
along this surface boundary rise above 1500 J/KG, wind shear values
are also strong (above 35 kts), and helicity along the front will
likely be enhanced as the surface low tracks along this front.
Spotters need to pay attention Sunday morning on where the front
finally stalls and where the thermal boundary sets up.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

The severe storm threat quickly transitions to a snow threat late
Sunday night and Monday. At the beginning of the period, an upper
low over northern Nebraska will keep the band of moderate to
occasionally heavy precip going from southwest Minnesota to
northern Wisconsin. Colder air aloft will accompany the upper low
as it tracks northeast across southern Minnesota during the day
Monday. Drier northwesterly flow in the boundary layer will allow
for diabatic cooling and surface temps in the low to mid 30s in
the area of heaviest precip, likely stretching across the central
CWA. The 12Z model suite, led by the ECMWF and GFS, shifted back
southeast a bit and favors a Redwood Falls, to Twin Cities, New
Richmond line for steadiest precip. Temperatures will be very near
a critical threshold for a transition to all snow. Heavy snow
rates despite the somewhat mild temps (33-35F) would still produce
several inches of snow at least on grassy areas. Messaging with
this storm is difficult at best. Complicated by the shifting band
of precip, a sensitive temperature forecast, and recent warm
weather makes it not so easy to calculate a deterministic
snowfall forecast. For now, am calling for an inch or two across
west central and central MN into northwest WI with the potential
for more if the predominate p-type is snow. Feel the best bet is
more of a rain/snow mix which by nature would limit any
accumulation potential, and above freezing temps would probably
allow roads to remain wet unless rates exceed an inch or more per
hour.

Precip will dissipate Monday evening. Surface high pressure will
track southeast across the Great Lakes to the east coast mid to
late week with a weaker wave than advertised in the past few days
pushing through Wednesday. Chance PoPs continue for that system. A
stronger system will develop over the northern Rockies late week
and track well north into central Canada next weekend. Broad
southerly flow will bring milder and more humid air northward with
showers and thunderstorms returning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 725 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2017

Cold front on the doorstep of AXN/RWF as we start these TAFs and
only minor delays were needed in timing of wind shifts in
previous TAF. This cold front will get down into NW IA over to SE
MN by Sunday morning. Lots of uncertainty still with how precip
will unfold, but one thing is for sure, low levels remain dry, so
delayed arrival of mvfr cigs quite a bit and was not as aggressive
as the LAMP guidance. There has been a very noticeable moist bias
the last couple of months with models bringing warm sector low
cigs in and think we will need to wait on the surface low getting
closer before CIGS really drop and that sfc low will just be
clearing Omaha 24 hours from now. Still seeing two camps for where
precip comes in this period with the ECMWF saying SW MN toward
the Twin Cities and the GFS west central across central MN. Like
the timing of the HRRR in terms of moving precip in Sunday
morning, though it is on a more GFS track and we could see that
precip come in a bit further south of what the HRRR shows. Beside
cigs dropping, the end of the TAF will likely see TSRA running
along/north of the stalled out boundary, but lots of spread in
the guidance on if, where, and how widespread tsra activity will
be in MN/WI, so removed it`s mention until we can narrow down the
TS window to something under 4 hours at any one location.

KMSP...First things first, threw out that 18z NAM for this TAF
package as it looks to really miss the boat on precip generation
and expect something more in line with the GFS or ECMWF. If recent
history is to be a guide, the southern solution will win out,
which would put MSP in line for the heaviest precip. That precip
could certainly start out earlier than we have in the 00z TAF, but
dry low level air will likely delay things initially. In addition,
we will likely see TSRA, in that final 6 hours of the TAF, but
would want better confidence on timing/placement of TSRA activity
before adding it into the TAF, especially when we are 24+ hours
out from the TSRA threat. By the end of the TAF, the low will
likely be near the SE tip of MN, so we could very well end this
TAF period with cigs much lower than we currently have, but will
wait for better confidence on cig trends/heights before hitting
them too hard.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. -RA likely. Chc -ra/-sn in afternoon.
      Wind N at 10-15G25 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts bcmg SW/S late.
Wed...VFR. Chc MVFR/-ra. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...MPG




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 902 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 422 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2017

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a ridge extending from the
southern Plains to Hudson Bay. On the backside of the ridge, one
shortwave is lifting ne thru Saskatchewan into Manitoba while
another shortwave trof has moved onshore over the western CONUS. At
the sfc, low pres associated with the former shortwave is just nw of
Lake Winnipeg with a trof extending s thru the eastern Dakotas.
Closer to home, mainly thin high cloudiness has been spreading into
the Upper Great Lakes today. It`s been a very warm day with temps
reaching 70F at a few locations over western Upper MI. It`s also
been very dry as RH has fallen to as low as 20pct at some locations.
Combined with southerly winds gusting over 20mph, wildfire
potential is elevated across much of the area.

Short term fcst concerns revolve around a small potential of -shra
tonight and then the increasing shra and even thunder potential on
Sun. With a 40-50kt low-level jet quickly translating e across the
area tonight, there is some concern for elevated convection.
However, as was the case with model runs view yesterday, 12z runs
today show elevated instability largely lagging the low-level jet,
decreasing the potential of pcpn. Antecedant dry air mass also
diminishes the potential. At this point, will retain a shc mention
over the central and e tonight due to more persistent isentropic
ascent indicated in that area and due to some developing overlap of
weak instability with the low-level jet. Expect warm night for early
Apr with min temps ranging from the lower 40s east to the lwr/mid
50s west.

On Sun, sfc trof reaches Upper MI and will probably end up bisecting
the area by late aftn. This trof and an axis of weak instability
along/just ahead of it may support some -shra development on Sun.
However, attention will be turning to vigorous shortwave moving out
CO/WY late in the day and lead energy tracking into the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Lakes. This will lead to an increase in
deep layer forcing/isentropic ascent toward the fcst area in the
aftn. In addition, right entrance of strengthening upper jet over
northern Ontario will provide increasing upper divergence with
low/mid level fgen also increasing. As a result, will spread higher
pops into the area from the sw in the aftn. Some thunder is also
possible, mainly across the s where mucape will be increasing to 500
to possibly as high as 1000j/kg. Could be some stronger storms if
the higher instability is realized.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2017

Looking at a system moving through the region Sun night into Tue
night. While placement, timing and amounts of QPF are uncertain,
should see precip move in Sun evening, with potential for
thunderstorms mainly over the south central (also an outside shot at
stronger storms if enough instability can develop). An additional
round of precip may then develop over possibly western portions of
the area later Sun night into Mon morning, turning to scattered to
isolated precip during the day Mon. Ptype, while expecting to mainly
be rain, precip would change to freezing rain or sleet if the cold
outlier NAM verifies. At this point, have the greatest confidence in
all rain Sun night, possibly mixing with some snow over the higher
terrain of the west later on Mon, but with no significant
accumulations.

Mon night into Tue morning will see thinning precip as the system
moves out. Ptype is uncertain as ice presence and thermal profiles
will lead to potential for rain, snow or a mix. Amounts, ptype, and
coverage are all in question, so not able to get very specific at
this time.

Let blended initialization handle things without any edits after Tue.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 836 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2017

Given the very dry conditions in place and lack of snow cover
upstream which would aid low-level saturation as moisture advects
nne, opted to retain VFR conditions thru Sun morning. Otherwise,
expect a low-level jet moving e across the area tonight to lead
to LLWS at all terminals. Increasing moisture and lift along an
incoming frontal boundary will lead to a better chance for
afternoon showers on Sun especially at KIWD and KSAW with clouds
possibly lowering toward MVFR at KSAW late in the day.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 422 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2017

Ahead of an approaching trof, s winds up to 20-30kt are expected
over eastern Lake Superior tonight with lighter winds over the w. As
the trof settles over Lake Superior on Sun, winds will become light,
under 15kt. A cold front will drop across Lake Superior Sun night
with low pres then tracking along the front. This will result in
strengthening ne winds late Sun night into Mon. Gales will be
possible. Winds will begin to diminish Mon night and then more so on
Tue as high pres ridge approaches. By late Tue aftn, winds should be
under 15kt across the lake. These light winds will continue into Wed
morning. Depending on the track and strength of the next low pres
system moving across the western Great Lakes early Thu, there may be
a period of stronger winds.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Rolfson




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Portland OR

 855 PM PDT Sat Apr 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build across the Pac NW tonight for
decreasing clouds and showers. A strong cold front will reach the
coast late Sunday afternoon, bringing a quick shot of rain late
Sunday afternoon and evening, followed by a trough of low pressure
Sunday night, possibly resulting in some thunderstorms, brief gusty
winds, and small hail especially along the coast. Snow levels will
lower below the Cascade passes, with a few inches of snow possible
in the Cascades Sunday night and Monday. The associated upper low
will move onshore into Washington Monday, with showers decreasing as
the next ridge of high pressure slides across the region. The next
moderately strong low pressure system is expected to spread another
round of rain northward into the region Tuesday. Depending on the
strength and proximity of this system, gusty winds will be possible
again late Tue into Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...Radar showed showers
continuing Sat evening across nw OR and sw WA, but were decreasing
both in intensity and coverage as the result of stabilization from
both loss of daytime heating and subsidence from ridging. With the
ridge of high pres moving across overnight, winds will generally go
light and some clearing will allow temps to cool below normal. With
dewpoints in the 30s in the valleys, may see some patchy frost by
morning.

Remainder of short term discussion unchanged...Model cross sections
suggest high clouds return ahead of our next frontal system as early
as the pre-dawn hours Sunday...looking at latest water vapor and IR
imagery, this seems reasonable...so we kept cloud cover fairly high
for the forecast Sunday. This will likely hold high temps in the 50s
for most of the district Sunday, despite a warmer air mass with 850
mb temps 0 to +2 deg C versus today`s -2 to -4 deg C air at 850 mb.

The milder air aloft will be short-lived, as a strong cold front now
crossing 138W is expected to barrel through the forecast area Sunday
afternoon and evening. This system is being hurried along by a 125
knot zonal jet, which only slightly eases by the time the front
reaches the coast around 00z Mon (5 PM Sun PDT). Latest runs of the
NAM and some higher resolution guidance show a distinct surface
trough associated with the cold front...stronger than typical.
Additionally, the upper level low will be trending toward a negative
tilt as the front approaches. This seems to point toward a dynamic
frontal passage, with a brief period of gusty winds with the front
itself along the coast. As the front races inland, there will likely
be a sharp drop in snow level in the Cascades Sun evening.

Perhaps more impressive than the front itself will be the
post-frontal surface trough that follows. Convective-allowing
guidance such as the WRF show a well-defined line of convection
moving onshore around 11 PM Sun...and surprisingly holding together
fairly well while moving across the Willamette Valley just after
midnight Sun night. NAM/GFS 500 mb temps also seem support a rapid
increase in instability behind the front, dropping from -27 deg C to
-34 deg C between 03z and 09z Mon. Given the favorable dynamics... in
the left exit region of an 80-100 kt jet, diffluent flow aloft, and
decent instability parameters for being in the middle of the night...
we decided to enhance the thunder wording a bit Sun night for the
coast, including a gusty wind/small hail mention. We also expanded
the mention of thunder inland late Sun night through early Mon.

Showers/thunderstorms should decrease Monday from SW-NE as the next
shortwave ridge builds in aloft and at the surface. Cool air left
behind by this system may result in another near-freezing night Mon
night/Tue morning, depending on how many high clouds push in ahead of
our next system. Models still vary on the details with this system,
but the majority show a deepening low approaching the Oregon coastal
waters from the S-SW. More on this in the long term and marine
discussions below.  Weagle

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)...No changes.
Previous discussion follows. Deep upper-level trough digs down out
of the Gulf of Alaska toward the West Coast, bringing a fairly
strong low pressure system up from the south along the Coast. Bare
in mind there is still some uncertainty on the track, but right now
the track would indicate more windy conditions for the Coast Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Rain will accompany this system,
spreading inland from southwest to northeast late Tuesday into
Wednesday. The front from this low pressure system appears to hang
offshore through Wednesday, keeping rain over the area. Finally, on
Thursday the cold front moves through, bringing westerly flow behind
the front, and more orographically driven showers Thursday night, at
least decreasing on Friday. Models diverge significantly on Friday
with precipitation chances. While the GFS gives us a bit of a break
from the rain due to a transient shortwave ridge, the ECMWF keeps
the broad upper-level trough more stationary over our area keeping
showers across our area through Saturday.

With broad upper-level troughing bringing cooler air in aloft,
expect snow levels to come down below the passes, to around 3500
feet on Thursday. Snow levels on Friday may drop down to around 2500
feet, but with showers likely decreasing we should not see any
significant accumulations on Friday or Saturday. -McCoy

&&

.AVIATION...Showers have greatly diminished over the last couple
hours. Mainly expect lingering shower activity to remain over the
Cascades and the ocean waters for the rest of tonight. Expect
VFR to prevail for the bulk of the next 18 hours a combination
of winds and increasing mid and high cloud cover will limit low
cloud development. Next front will lower cigs to MVFR at the
coast around or after 23z Sunday. That same front will bring
rather wind gusts 25-30 kts to the coastal terminals after 16-18z
as well.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR should prevail with a minimal threat of
Cigs below 040. Cigs may fall to 030-040 after 10/02z. /JBonk

&&

.MARINE...Building high pressure across the waters this evening
should continue to allow winds and seas to continue dropping,
falling below 10 ft shortly. Will allow the SCA for seas expire
as planned.

The next storm system will be an occluding front that will be
oriented south to north as it moves eastward into the waters
Sunday. Gale Force wind gusts of 40 kt appear likely to spread
into the outer waters late Sunday morning and linger through the
early evening hours on Sunday. As a result, the Gale Watch was
upgraded for the outer waters to a Gale Warning. However, given
the orientation of the front and pressure gradient relative to
the coastline, am concerned these stronger winds will have a hard
time reaching the inner waters. With that said, Gale Force winds
of 35 kt may have an easier time reaching the inner waters along
the central Oregon coast due to its position relative to the
surface low pressure. The inner waters remain marginal for
frequent gale gusts at best as of the currently available data.
HRRR and other hi-res model data don`t quite cover the time
period of interest just yet. Similar to the prior shift, will
punt the decision for one more period so they may have a
confirming look at the fullest suite of data. It currently
appears the inner waters may catch only an hour or two of gusts
around 35 kts late Sunday afternoon.

As pressure gradients relax Sunday night and Monday, winds and
subsequently seas should subside. Models then suggest another
unusually strong for this late in the season, surface low
pressure will develop and move north or northeastward off the
Pacific Northwest coast towards the middle of next week. Our main
global weather prediction models are beginning to converge on
the idea that a 990-1000mb low pressure will move northward just
off the coast, which could certainly bring Gale Force winds to
the waters. As a result, trended the forecast in this direction,
but did not go as strong as some model solutions suggest given
there remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the strengthen,
position and timing of the low pressure. Unsettled weather looks
to continue through the end of next week, but confidence in
details beyond Tuesday/Wednesday is even lower. JBonk/Neuman

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Waters from Cape
     Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to
     Florence OR out 60 nm.

     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar from 3 AM to
     8 AM PDT Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar from 3 PM to
     8 PM PDT Sunday.

&&

$$

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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.