Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/01/17

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
931 PM MDT Fri Mar 31 2017 .UPDATE... IR imagery showing warming cloud tops across the region and radar is showing a solid decrease in activity. HRRR continues to dissipate the activity by 09z so only expect another inch of snow at most over the Big Horns so have cancelled all highlights. High clouds moving in from the northwest may slow the development of fog in areas where precipitation has ended but a lot of moisture is around so expect some patchy fog to develop. Update sent. borsum && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun... 850 mb frontal zone has been extending from the Bighorn mountains northeastward through southeastern Montana for most of the day today. Have seen an inch or more of rainfall in the foothills today and several inches of snow in the Bighorn Mountains over the last few hours. Have started to see weakening trends on radar for the bands over Sheridan and Big Horn counties, but rain chances will continue into the overnight hours in those locations. Possible fog development tonight over the central Plains with weak winds and copious low-level moisture remaining from the rain. Clearing and warming conditions expected this weekend with temperatures in the low 60s expected during the day. The next system arrives Sunday evening, which is a bit earlier than previous model runs. Models have had significant differences in the qpf locations through Monday. Bottom line, unsettled and cooler conditions for Sunday night and Monday, with rain to rain/snow mix in the lower elevations and a couple inches of snow in the mountains. Walsh .LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri... No big changes to the going forecast this afternoon. Pacific trof drops through the area in an open wave fashion Monday into Tuesday, with less of an opportunity for a discrete circulation to develop. This continues a trend that began yesterday toward lower precipitation totals though chances for a shower remain fairly high. Best chances for rain/snow look to arrive Monday night into Tuesday. Amplified ridge builds in for Wednesday and may persist into Saturday before another Pacific trof builds in. This provides several dry days in a row with temperatures in the 60s for the area. Chambers && .AVIATION... Expect MVFR over south central MT and north central WY through this evening. Rain showers with local IFR should be confined mainly to south of KBIL and KMLS and near KSHR through this evening. Fog/low clouds with IFR-LIFR could develop mainly after 05z tonight across the lower elevations affecting KBIL, KMLS, KSHR and KBHK. The mountains will be obscured this evening. Obscurations will decrease overnight. RMS/Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 039/061 044/059 035/049 031/050 032/058 039/065 042/066 21/U 13/W 54/R 53/W 11/B 11/B 11/B LVM 033/058 038/056 028/045 025/049 028/057 034/064 038/064 20/U 24/W 44/O 42/W 11/B 11/N 11/B HDN 039/062 041/061 034/051 030/052 030/059 034/066 038/068 21/U 02/W 54/R 53/W 11/B 11/B 11/B MLS 040/062 044/062 038/052 033/052 032/059 035/066 041/070 21/B 11/B 35/R 54/W 11/B 00/B 11/U 4BQ 039/061 042/061 036/050 031/048 029/056 033/063 038/068 41/U 01/B 64/R 54/W 21/B 01/B 11/U BHK 037/060 040/061 035/051 031/049 028/054 030/062 037/067 21/U 01/B 45/R 55/W 21/U 10/B 11/U SHR 035/058 037/056 032/047 029/047 028/055 032/063 036/065 61/U 13/W 56/O 54/W 11/B 11/B 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
706 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 With cyclone departing acrs the eastern OH RVR Valley, a large high pressure complex will look to slide in behind it acrs the upper Midwest. A passing bout of upper ridge lobe also to adjust itself acrs the region for the start of the weekend, while the next weather maker cyclone organizes over the southwestern CONUS. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Tonight...The big challenge will be timing of clearing and resultant effect on temps and possible ground occurring phenomena such as fog and/or frost. Clouds have been stubborn to clear locally, and may have to wait until diurnal processes shut down toward and after sunset for a more hastened erosion south out of WI and MN. Also ridge-riding vort max aloft seen on current water vapor loop spilling down acrs eastern IA currently, not helping any clearing trends until it passes into east central IL by mid evening. Have used current satellite extrapolation and timing off latest HRRR ESRL CIGs prog to try and time clearing from the north. This generally brings clearing of the lower stratocu deck down to I80 by 8-9 pm, and almost out of the southern CWA by midnight. Then just a few streaks of cirrus into the early morning hours. With light winds with arrival of sfc ridge, the clearing skies, and moist sfc layer, the concern turns to fog development by early Sat morning. But most fog progs and HiRes VSBY solutions don`t produce much fog besides ambient 3-6SM toward dawn which would not be really zone mention worthy. The processes may go more into shallow layer ground fog, heavy dew or frost production, if sfc temps can cool into the mid to lower 30s like forecast. But will expand at least patchy fog late tonight acrs the north central into eastern third to half of the CWA, in areas most likely to stay calm under clear skies the longest. But low confidence in this, and if the entire area clears out, the entire CWA may be suspect to at least patchy and valley fog by early Sat morning. Saturday...We should have at least partial sunshine in the morning to midday especially acrs the eastern half of the area, before mid and high level clouds thicken from the west and southwest ahead of the next incoming impulse. This should allow for enough insolation to help temps reach fcst highs of the mid to upper 50s in most of the area, although still wet terrain and weak mixing make for worry of a temp bust...not to mention if clouds come in even faster. Half of the various 12z or later model runs keep the area dry thru 00z Sun, while several others break out overrunning light precip acrs portions of the CWA especially north of I80. Will keep the fcst dry and bank on dry low to mid layers to keep any precip that manages to form aloft, in virga form. A few sprinkles at worst. ..12.. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through next Friday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Near to slightly above normal temperatures and several periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms are the main highlights of the long term forecast period. Saturday night, synoptic forcing associated with a large upper low moving out of the southern plains will be on the increase. A few showers may spread into the far southwest counties before daybreak. The initial wave will produce widespread showers through the day on Sunday. Confidence is lower regarding the path of the second, more potent wave. Synoptic models continue to indicate a variety of solutions for Sunday night into Monday, ranging from the mainly dry GFS, to the ECMWF, which spread significant rain over the entire area. The best course for now is to keep pops in the 30-50 percent range. If the ECMWF ends up closer to reality, temps will need to be lowered quite a bit on Monday. Looking ahead, the upper ridge will traverse the area Monday night into Tuesday, ahead of the next significant system. Model spread is still quite large, as the system will not come on short until late Sunday. Thus, forecast confidence in track, timing, and impacts remains very low. Rain is possible as early as late Tuesday afternoon, and could even extend into Thursday if the less progressive solutions verify. Have added some isolated thunder for late Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning, which looks to be the favored period for WAA. Some severe weather cannot be discounted with such a strong system, although details are still uncertain. Some snow could even occur Wednesday night across the north. Thursday night into Friday, the amplified upper trough will begin to head east as cool air settles over the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Low clouds with MVFR bases will dissipate from north to south this evening. Then, VFR conditions will prevail with fair skies and light northerly winds and possibly light fog toward morning. Saturday will be fair with increasing high clouds in the afternoon as winds shift to light easterly. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Latest trends support cancelling the flood watches on the Wapsipinicon River near DeWitt and the Iowa River at Marengo. DeWitt has crested below flood stage and is on the way down, while Marengo is now forecast to crest around a foot below flood stage. Elsewhere, rises continue on the Rock River. Latest forecasts call for crests near flood stage. Looking ahead, additional rainfall Sunday into Monday does not look to be enough to cause significant additional rises. However, another more potent storm around mid week shows some potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...12 SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...RP Kinney AVIATION...Nichols HYDROLOGY...RP Kinney
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
914 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Made a few adjustments to the cloud cover rest of tonight, but otherwise forecast seems on track. Low clouds were decreasing along and north of I-80 at mid evening and will decrease from north to south overnight over central IL, lasting longest in southeast IL into Sat morning. Lows by dawn to range from lower 30s from Lincoln north, to the upper 30s to near 40F in southeast IL which stay cloudy tonight. North winds 5-15 mph this evening to be 5-10 mph overnight. 02Z/9 pm surface map shows 1004 mb low pressure over sw PA while a deepening 1002 mb low pressure was just off the mid Atlantic coast. Aloft a 553 dm 500 mb low/trof was over western NY/PA and extending into central VA. Models deepen surface low pressure off the southern New England coast by dawn Sat while upper level trof pushes off the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile upper level ridge over the central plains shifts eastward toward IL/MS river valley by Sat morning. 1025 mb surface high pressure along the southern Saskachewan and Manitoba province line to build over IA by dawn. This will continue to decrease the MVFR clouds from north to south over central IL overnight and over southeast IL Sat morning. Overcast low clouds holding temps in the low to mid 40s at mid evening. But once low clouds decrease, temps should slip into the 30s, while southeast IL from I-70 southeast only drops to around 40F where low clouds continue rest of tonight into part of Sat morning. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Clouds continue to blanket central Illinois this afternoon, with the closest clearing observed well to the north across central/northern Wisconsin. As low pressure currently over eastern Ohio moves further away, this area of clearing will pivot southward tonight. HRRR continues to suggest skies will begin to clear north of Peoria by late evening...with clearing advancing southward into the Springfield area toward dawn. Given a continued N/NE fetch within the cloud-bearing layer, think the eastern KILX CWA along and east of I-57 will remain cloudy through the entire night. Overnight low temperatures will be coldest in the lower to middle 30s where clearing occurs soonest...but will remain around 40 degrees further southeast where clouds will persist. Low clouds will eventually exit the E/SE KILX CWA on Saturday: however, increasing high clouds ahead of the next system will generally yield a partly sunny day. Despite the partial sunshine, a cool northeasterly breeze will keep high temperatures in the middle to upper 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 The upper air pattern over North America is expected to remain very active through this forecast period as a powerful 250 mb jet tracks across the central Pacific. Several low amplitude waves embedded in the fast flow over the Pacific track into the western U.S. and amplify as the move into the longwave trough position over the western U.S. Based on morning upper air analysis, there appears to be at least 3 distinct waves that we will have to deal with over the next 5 to 7 days, bringing rain chances to central Illinois just about every 2 to 3 days. Unfortunately, with such an active/fast flow across the Pacific, timing and magnitude of these low amplitude waves into the country and east through the southern Plains and Midwest are a challenge for models and continue to be so with the 12z runs. This will continue to keep chance POPs going a majority of the days in this forecast period. The first of these waves shows up quite nicely on satellite data over northern Arizona and with track east across the southern Plains with most models continuing to shift the upper wave mainly to the east early next week. The main question with this sytem will be the amount of low level moisture able to advect north with as much convection that is forecast along the lower Mississippi Valley later in the weekend into early Monday. The latest ECMWF, and to a certain exent the NAM, show quite a bit of convection well south of our area with both models suggesting some convective feedback issues resulting in a further north track with the surface low. Based on the stronger 500 mb wind fields displaced further south, the track suggested by the GFS looks more reasonable at this time. Rain with this system will approach our area later Sunday as low level warm advection increases in advance of the upper. Shower and low thunder chances continue Sunday night into Monday as the surface wave tracks south of the region with the highest rain chances along and south of I-72. With the next upstream kicker/shortwave trough already pushing into the central Rockies later Monday, the early week wave should progress east of the area Monday night into early Tuesday taking most of the precip to our east. Models continue to suggest a more vigorous system amplifying across the Rockies and into the Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region. Main question with this system will be with the amount of low level moisture available ahead of the strong wave as the previous shortwave that brought the rains to our area on Monday will scour out the low level moisture as it shifts off to our east Monday night into Tuesday. However, models have trended slower with the mid-week system which may allow Gulf moisture to return, at least over our east and southeast counties Wednesday afternoon. Believe the slowing trend seen with the 12z models may be the way to go with this more amplified upper trough, as we see little in the way of a significant upstream kicker/shortwave to its west as the system closes off a low at 500 MB just to our west late Wednesday. Showers, and at this point, low thunder chances will push into the west late Tuesday, more likely Tuesday night and Wednesday with any pre-frontal convective activity slated for Wednesday afternoon/evening based on the slower trends in models. As the system, shifts across our area Wednesday night into Thursday, a weak wave trailing along the southern periphery of the deepeing upper trof may bring a continuation of the showers along with a change to colder weather for the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 1004 mb surface low pressure over sw PA and 553 dm 500 mb low over the upper/eastern Ohio river valley, will track off the mid Atantic coast by 06Z/1 am tonight. Upper level ridge over the central plains will shift east into IL by 18Z/Sat while 1024 mb high pressure over southeast Saskachawan settles into IL. Widespread MVFR ceilings of 1-2.5k ft over central IL early this evening (as low as 900 ft at BMI) while these clouds scatter out north of IL over southern WI and northeast IA. Went a couple hours slower than the HRRR model with scattering out these clouds at PIA around 05Z, along I-55 between 07-09Z and at DEC and CMI 10-12Z. Will see scattered to broken cirrus clouds around 25k ft spread into central IL Sat morning. NNW winds 7-13 kts early this evening to weaken during tonight and veer NE during Sat morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...07 SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1151 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 .UPDATE... The Aviation section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Cool...cloudy weather will persist through early Saturday as low pressure moves away from the region. A dry and seasonable weekend is then expected with high pressure moving through the Great Lakes. The active and unsettled weather pattern of late will return for next week with two separate systems impacting the Ohio Valley during the early and middle part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 1045 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Going forecast is in excellent shape, although did tweak min temps down slightly per latest HRRR and obs trends, which particularly pointed out the northwestern portion of the area with potential to get a couple of degrees cooler than forecast. Previous discussion follows. Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Chilly..raw and damp day ongoing across central Indiana as the region resides in the backwash of the surface low tracking east into western Pennsylvania late this afternoon. Trailing surface trough extending W/SW from the low remains across the southeast portion of central Indiana with the bulk of the steadier light rainfall and drizzle focused near and east of the trough. Temperatures had slowly fallen over much of the area as the afternoon progressed. 19Z temps ranged from near 40 in the lower Wabash Valley to the mid 50s just ahead of the boundary over the far southeast sections of the forecast area. Upper low and aforementioned surface wave will continue to move away to the east with energy transferring to a deepening surface low off of the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. More persistent and widespread light showers will move into Ohio by late this afternoon with the surface trough. While some lingering spotty light showers and/or drizzle will remain a possibility through early evening...expecting dry weather tonight as surface ridging begins to encroach on the Ohio Valley from the west. While the drier air will progressively expand into the region tonight...the focus will be in the mid levels with deep moisture remaining trapped within a shallow layer in the low levels. Model soundings and RH progs indicate a sharpening to the inversion tonight due to the advection of the drier air above 5kft. This will maintain the thick stratus deck residing across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes all night for much of the region. Cyclonic flow persisting over the region will support a continued northerly flow tonight with winds at 5-10mph. Cannot entirely rule out pockets of drizzle at times overnight as well...but confidence is not high enough for a mention in the forecast at this time. Temps...MOS guidance looks far too cool tonight considering presence of the stratus and likelihood that the lower levels cannot decouple. Raw model guidance matched low level thermals much more closely with lows ranging from the mid 30s north to around 40 south of Interstate 70. && .SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/... Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Forecast challenges focus on how quickly the stratus mixes out on Saturday...temps through the weekend...and rain/thunder potential Monday with the next storm system set to impact the Ohio Valley. Progressively drier air and subsidence will overspread the forecast area from the northwest on Saturday and should finally work its way into the boundary layer by late morning which will finally weaken the inversion and enable scattering of the low clouds around midday. The center of the surface high will drift across the region Saturday night into Sunday keeping weather quiet and bringing partly cloudy skies at a minimum. The sun will make its reappearance for Saturday afternoon with a period of mainly clear skies lingering into Saturday night before more expansive mid and high level clouds lift up and overtop of the expanding ridge aloft and across the region. Focus for the latter half of the short term is on the deep upper low currently residing across the Four Corners region this afternoon. The upper energy will kick out east into Texas and the southern Plains by late weekend before being drawn northeast into the Ohio and Tennessee V6alleys by late Monday. Initially Sunday...east-southeast winds will maintain dry air through the lowest 10kft or so even as mid and high level clouds continue to increase as moisture aloft surges into the region. Saturation within the boundary layer will likely not come until the predawn hours Monday as deeper isentropic lift commences through the column with the expansion of moisture into the Tennessee Valley along a developing warm front. Will hold off on any precip mention until late Sunday night as a result...with the combination of moisture overrunning the frontal boundary and increasing lift supporting a rapid expansion in rainfall coverage over the region by early Monday. Still some model differences in play at this point...but overall consensus is for the frontal boundary to set up near the Ohio River on Monday with a surface wave set to track along it. Precip water values will rise above 1.25 inches over most of the forecast area Monday and the combination of deep moisture and lift warrant categorical pops. Enough instability aloft noted across the area to continue with a mention of thunderstorms for Monday as well. Looks like potential certainly there for another spring soaking with up to an inch possible for most of central Indiana by early Tuesday once the system departs. Temps...considering the uncertainty with how quickly the low clouds mix out Saturday...trended highs towards the cooler MAV guidance in the mid 50s most areas. Should see temps surge into the 60s for both Sunday and Monday and low level thermals support. Utilized a model blend for lows through the period. && .LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Monday night a system will be moving through to the south of the area keeping rain and chances for storms in the area early with precip ending from northwest to southeast by morning as dry conditions advect in. Tuesday brief upper ridging will slide through to keep dry conditions in place until Tuesday night, when a weak wave will bring in some shower chances overnight. An upper low will wrap up before swinging out of the plains and through the Midwest, and this will bring chances for rain and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night, with more showers possible Thursday. Thursday night in the wake of the cold frontal passage temperatures will plummet, and it looks like these cooler temperatures will hang around for a couple days at least. With some upper forcing rotating through the upper low north of the area could see some chances for a rain/snow mix to end the week. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 01/06Z TAFs/... Issued at 1151 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Widespread MVFR ceilings will persist through the night. VFR conditions appear likely to return tomorrow afternoon. Widespread cloud cover noted on satellite imagery trapped beneath a stout subsidence inversion aloft. This inversion will persist through the night and into Saturday, which will keep the cloud cover in place. Clearing has progressed across northern Illinois but has struggled to make eastward progression. Will have to monitor this overnight. Ceilings will gradually lift Saturday morning and VFR conditions will likely return by early afternoon. Winds throughout the period will generally be northwesterly through northerly at 10KT or less. No significant obstructions to visibility are expected through the period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ryan NEAR TERM...Ryan/NIELD SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...NIELD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 Main forecast concerns are timing and amounts of precipitation, especially from Saturday into Sunday. System that brought rain to the area earlier in the week continued to move off to the east, and a new closed low was over the four corners region. That system had 12 hour height falls of over 200 meters this morning in Arizona. There were also 120 knot jetstream level winds on the west and south sides of that system. 850 mb moisture across the southern and central parts of the Plains was pretty low. Tonight, we should see some breaks in the cloudiness which will allow temperatures to fall into the 35 to 40 degree range for lows. Surface ridge axis will slide east, and just how much that will affect the development of showers is not known. The RAP and experimental HRRR runs seem to suggest showers are possible by around sunrise Saturday across southeast Nebraska. The 12Z NAM also developed precipitation, but much heavier. The main closed should drop to the southeast through Saturday, then move east or southeast through Sunday and start to open up. By Sunday evening, a shortwave trough should be digging southeast toward Idaho. That will move southeast and strengthen slightly. In general, model agreement is OK from Saturday Night into Monday. Chances for amounts of 0.25 or higher will be across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, closest to the forcing from the system to the south. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 The 12Z GFS and Canadian models develop a closed 500 mb circulation near the NM/CO/OK border area by mid day Tuesday, then track that northeast through Wednesday. Current indications suggest there will be enough elevated instability for some thunderstorms into the southern parts of the forecast area for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. But the operational GFS solution looked too strong with the 500 mb low. A ridge over the Rockies on Wednesday/Thursday, should build over the region with dry conditions Thursday night into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017 VFR cigs near FL040 and light northeast winds can be expected through at least 06Z, then cigs will lower to MVFR at KLNK and KOMA before 12Z. Areas of MVFR fog are also possible at all sites around 12Z. Rain is forecast to move in from the southwest, initially spotty much of the day Saturday so was not mentioned in TAFs. More widespread rains affecting KOMA and KLNK are expected after the end of the TAF period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Dergan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1136 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east across the region and move into thew Atlantic ocean tonight. High pressure will build across the region for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1130 PM EDT Friday... Upper level low and vorticities waves beginning to move east of the Blue Ridge late this evening. Deep northwesterly flow has cleared rain out over the piedmont. Same northwest flow across the mountains has thick low clouds with rain along western slopes and drizzle elsewhere. Precipitation, especially along western slopes, will continue through sunrise with low clouds lingering into the afternoon. Not much cold air behind the front. Morning lows will range in the 40s across the mountains to near 50F east. As of 535 PM EDT Friday... Updating PoPs as convection tracks east of the area earlier than expected. Upper level low continues to spin over the Ohio Valley this evening to keep bands of light showers rotating across the mountains. Highest PoPs through the night will be along western slopes of SE WV. Pressure rises behind the front will also bring breezy and gusty conditions to the mountains tonight. As of 320 PM EDT Friday... Residual cool wedge across northeast portion of forecast area this afternoon will erode as warm front pushes north this afternoon into tonight. Meanwhile, cold front continues to march east into the mountains. This cold front will move east tonight and push further out into the Atlantic ocean overnight. High pressure in the Ohio Valley will build southeast into our region on Saturday. Severe threat will be rather short lived, with the convective line reaching the Atlantic coast by/just after sunset, nocturnal stabilization and the advancing front should allow for threat to drop off quickly. The best chances of strong storms are where temperatures have warmed into the lower 70 degrees F with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Across southern portions of Forecast area, 0-3 km lapse rates are steepening and may aid in leading to potential for localized damaging winds as storms develop and intensify. Strong southwesterly low- to mid-level flow (40-55 kt at 500 mb) will serve to organize updrafts. The main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the stronger cores as storms develop eastward near/along the NC/VA border this afternoon into tonight. The Storm Prediction Center in SWODY1 has outlooked areas east of a LYH-DAN line for Slight Risk of severe weather for this afternoon into tonight. Shaped the pops in isc grids towards a blend of HRRR and HiResw-arw East. In the wake of cold front, conditions will improve with clearing taking place tonight. As High pressure builds in for tonight, expect breezy conditions with northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph. West of the Blue Ridge, and more so for the higher terrain of WV and far western VA and into the NC mountains, some lingering low clouds and light precipitation (showers) may continue per shallow moist northwest flow. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s in the northern mountains to near 50 in the Piedmont. Northwest flow aloft returns for Saturday. Under cold advection aloft, 850 mb temperatures by early afternoon cool to values ranging from +1 to +5C. Any lingering upslope showers along the western slopes will dry up quickly. Utilized the NAM and continuity for pops on Saturday. High temperatures will vary from the the mid 40s in northwest Greenbrier county to the lower 70s in the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 319 PM EDT Friday... High pressure is firmly in control at the start of the period. Winds will have begun to die down as the pressure gradient weakens. Skies will be sunny providing a benign Sunday with high temperatures in the 60s. Overnight on Sunday into Monday, the high will begin shifting eastward as a low begins to track toward the region from the midwest. Increased cloud cover will begin to move in ahead of the low and also from a shift to a southerly flow. Showers begin to move into the region Monday morning, beginning mainly in the mountains of northwest NC. Over the course of the day precip looks to be limited along the ridge early until larger scale forcing moves in to cause the PoPs to be more likely everywhere. The heaviest amounts be along and near the Blue Ridge. Isolated thunder within the showers can be expected. All in all, the situations looks to play out very similarly to what we have seen the past 18-24 hours. Heaviest and mostly likely PoP looks to occur during the afternoon into the evening. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 319 PM EDT Friday... Winds will begin to pick up Monday night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient begins to strengthen around the low. These increased winds should first be noticed along the southern ridges as 850mb winds during the morning are between 40-50 kts from the south at this point. Post frontal passage, winds will shift westerly and stronger gusts will be seen throughout the region. Wrap around moisture from the low will continue to be an issue for the region Tuesday into Wednesday. This will be particularly noticeable in the northwest ridges which are typically susceptible to upslope precipitation as well. Models still have a lot of variance regarding the timing and strength of the next system to reach the region on Thursday. As of now, leaning toward the European solution which shows the onset of at least some light precip early in the morning Thursday. After this system passes, temperatures will be noticeably cooler for the end of the week into the weekend, so much that some nocturnal snow may be seen along the western ridges late Friday night. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 722 PM EDT Friday... An upper level low pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to track east to the Mid Atlantic region overnight. The trailing cold front will move east of the piedmont (KLYH-KDAN) by 01Z Saturday/9pm Friday. Skies will remain cloudy across the forecast area through midnight then downsloping winds will help scour clouds east of the Blue Ridge. Upslope winds and low level moisture will keep skies cloudy across the mountains into Saturday morning. A few light rain showers may pass over the mountains overnight, but any reducing visibilities will be those along western slopes (KBLF). Ceilings along western slopes will also remain MVFR to tempo IFR into Saturday morning. Across the rest of the mountains, ceilings will range from 2500-3500 feet. Pressure rises and gradient will keep breezy and gusty conditions along and west of the Blue Ridge into Saturday afternoon. Breezy conditions are expected across the piedmont once inversion breaks by 9 AM Saturday. Medium confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Aviation Discussion... VFR will return for Saturday evening through Sunday under diminishing winds as high pressure slides across. Next similar low pressure system to that seen at the end of this week will approach by Monday with sub-VFR conditions likely returning Sunday night into Monday as rain again transitions to showers and storms to start the week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK/RCS SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR AVIATION...KK/RCS