Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/28/17
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Upper low evolving over UT and nrn AZ at 23Z will slide to the east
and southeast and into wrn and nrn NM around 28/12Z. Unsettled wx
with lower elevation rain and high mtn snow showers along with isold
tstms will increase across the region with occasional mt
obscurations. Prior to 06Z, showers will more likely produce gusty
variable winds to around 35kt rather than precipitation as the lower
levels of the atmosphere are initially rather dry. West to northwest
winds will strengthen aft 28/18Z as the surface low intensifies over
east central NM, although the exact track and location of both the
upper and surface lows are not being well forecasted by the models.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
The storm track remains active across New Mexico this week. A pair of
systems through the weekend will bring periods of rain and high
elevation snow. The main impacts from the first system will be across
northeast New Mexico Tuesday night through Wednesday morning with
potential for heavy snow across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
Raton Pass. Good lower elevation rains will be possible for much of
the plains. Another system may impact New Mexico Friday through the
weekend with another round of valley rains and mountain snows.
Temperatures will generally be below normal thanks to the increase in
cloud cover and precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A difficult forecast this afternoon due to models diverging on the
track of the next two storm systems. The first storm system is
already impacting NM as showers have developed across the northwest.
The HRRR and GFS have been showing a band of precip focusing across
the ABQ and SAF metro areas this evening and overnight, but the
latest HRRR may be slightly shifting eastward over the higher
terrain of the Sandia/Manzanos and Sangres. Nonetheless, should be
rather light with snow levels around 8000 feet. Additionally, these
same models develop another band of precip across the eastern plains
toward sunrise in an area of weak surface convergence and on the nose
of the upper jet.
Questions arise tomorrow regarding the track of the system. The GFS
takes the center of the low across northern NM and by 06Z Wed,
centers the low over NE NM. Meanwhile, the ECMWF dives the low
southeastward and by 06Z Wed, centers the low over southeast NM. The
NAM low is closer to the GFS position, while the GEM is closer to the
ECMWF. All ensemble means also favor their respective operational
model, so not much help there. The 120-130kt jet on the back side of
the system suggests that the EC/GEM may be onto something. The
differences between the low position will have significant impacts on
where precipitation will fall. The GFS outcome will favor
precipitation across the northern mts and northeast NM, whereas the
ECMWF will favor precip across much of the eastern plains. In either
case, the snow levels will be low enough (~7500-8000ft) for
potentially significant snow amounts across the Sangre de Cristo Mtns
and the Raton Ridge. Thus will hoist a winter storm watch for these
areas starting at noon Tuesday. At lower elevations, rain will be the
p-type. Periods of heavy snow and moderate rain are possible which
may reduce visibilities.
Precipitation will wane Wednesday evening, then shortwave ridging
will move over the area on Thursday. Thursday`s temperatures will
warm 5-15 degrees over Wednesday`s highs.
The break will be short-lived as another storm system will be
impacting NM Friday into the weekend. Initially models agree on the
track of this system, shifting the low over the Four Corners on
Friday night. Thereafter, however, the EC quickly scoots the low
across northern NM, where the GFS dives the low southward along the
AZ/NM border, then eastward along the Mexico border. Thus,
significant differences in precipitation potential and timing. Too
early to say which model has a better handle on this system. Another
system may be in store early next week. Needless to say, this is a
low confidence forecast this afternoon.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An unsettled weather period is still on target beginning tonight
over NM as an upper level low takes shape over the area and moves
slowly east/southeast through Wednesday. Scattered valley rain and
high terrain snow will gradually develop over the state tonight then
spread into most of the region Tuesday. A few storms are possible
just about anywhere. Wetting precip is possible for central and
western NM with greater potential for moderate to heavy precip for
the eastern plains Wednesday and Wednesday night. The stronger west
winds that were advertised Tuesday are now more into southern NM as
the parent upper wave is trending farther south on latest guidance.
Meanwhile, temperatures will become cold enough for snow, possibly
heavy, over the Sangre de Cristo Mts and the Raton Ridge. Winds will
become northerly all areas as the low exits into the plains.
Flow aloft will become more zonal Thursday with drier and warmer air
shifting into NM. Spotty marginal critical conditions are likely
along and south of Highway 60. Winds will remain elevated over ridge
tops Thursday night ahead of the next upper wave. Model guidance is
really falling out of agreement with this next system which shows a
slower and farther northwest placement initially late Friday. As a
result, a dry slot with deep mixing and unstable conditions focuses
over the southeastern third of the area. Critical conditions are
possible Friday afternoon for the east central and southeast plains
and perhaps the southern fringes of the middle Rio Grande Valley and
the south central highlands.
Any critical conditions will end from west to east as the upper wave
moves into NM Friday night through Sunday. As noted, confidence is
decreasing on the timing and placement of the overall feature but
regardless a cooler period with higher humidity, cloud cover, and at
least scattered showers is likely for the weekend.
Guyer
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for the following zones... NMZ512>515-527.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
918 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Dense fog has formed over many portions of northern North Dakota
so have gone ahead and issued a dense fog advisory. Latest HRRR
seems to have been working out pretty well on the timing of the
leading edge of the dense fog, though has not been doing as well
with the back side of the fog. Past and current runs have been
clearing out the backside, but satellite shows that fog over
southern Manitoba has been reluctant go to away. Anyways, will
keep advisory going through mid-morning Tuesday, and if clearing
does actually develop over the northeast later we can always trim
back on the advisory.
UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
For early evening update have advanced timing a bit on the fog
setting in over northern locations as it has already pushed into
the Minot area. As for precipitation, convective showers over
central North Dakota appear to be on the decrease, so will let
chances diminish through the early evening. Next round of light
precipitation trying to push into northwestern parts of the area
at this time. A look at latest soundings still shows the
potential for a little snow/rain mix over the far northwest. Over
the far north central a little freezing rain/sleet will not be
out of the question, although chances for this remains quite low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Forecast challenges in the short term period will be stratus and
fog coverage tonight & tomorrow, along with precipitation
chances/placement.
Currently, embedded mid level impulse moving easterly across
western and central North Dakota combining with weak instability
and an easterly upslope flow to result in a scattered showers
along a west to east orientated stationary front from eastern MT
through McKenzie-central Dunn-Mercer-southern McLean/Sheridan
counties. Expect this activity to linger through the
afternoon/early evening before dissipating. Stratus and areas of
fog remain over my north central and far northeast.
Another area of light precipitation will move across northwestern
and far north central ND tonight associated with another embedded
wave now moving into northeastern Montana. Otherwise the main
concern tonight will be stratus and fog. High res models have
persistently shown the low cigs/fog across the north developing
south with time tonight with the exception of the southwest on the
other side of the frontal zone. Also, dry air associated with
high pressure over northern/central Manitoba will eventually work
into the area tonight eroding the areas of fog over my
northeastern counties. Basically followed the HRRR guidance for
placement of stratus and fog which develops a northwest to
southeast orientated area from northwest ND to across the James
River Valley. Fog will likely linger into Tuesday morning.
Another mild day Tuesday with decent chances for rain over
southwestern ND. Mainly dry central and east.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Mild/above normal temperatures will continue through the period.
Best chance for precipitation looks to be late Thursday night-
Friday-Friday night when a northern stream S/WV trough pushes
across the Northern Plains. Otherwise mainly dry conditions will
prevail.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions in low cigs and fog are to
continue developing over many parts of northwest into central
North Dakota, particularly along and north of a line from KMOT to
KJMS. Remaining locations will see areas of MVFR with localized
IFR conditions. Southern locations will see improvement to VFR by
mid-day Tuesday, while northern locations may improve to MVFR with
localized IFR cigs.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ001>005-
010>013-021>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1001 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Have updated short term forecast to increase fog wording across
the northern tier of counties in our CWA. Strong clearing taking
place as subsidence and drier air entrained into northern Iowa
from high pressure across northern Minnesota. High confidence
winds will be less than 5 kts overnight. Sfc dwpt depressions
already less than 4 degrees across much of northern Iowa.
Monday evening RAP has been handling clearing the best, and HRRR
starting to join the game. Looking at fog beginning to develop
between 04 and 06z...possibly reaching Dense Fog Advisory criteria
of sustained, less than 1/4 of a mile from Kossuth county to
Cerro Gordo county and northward. Vsby reductions also possible
down to Waterloo... but as of now, vsbys look like they will stay
in the 3 mile or above range as clearing may not make it that far
south/SE. Dense Fog Advisory potential is medium-high. Will
continue to monitor closely.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
The low pressure system that helped continue the abundance of cloud
cover and showers across the south moved off to Illinois, being
replaced by a weak inverted high pressure ridge moving into Western
Iowa. Clearing/erosion of western/northwestern edge of the cloud
deck proved slower than overnight hi-res guidance suggested,
resulting in continued blanketed cloud cover over the state and
keeping highs down in the upper 40s/low 50s. Hi-res guidance has
continued to appear overly aggressive in clearing out cloud cover
over northern and western Iowa, especially taking into consideration
performance through the day today. Have thusly kept with generally
overcast skies across the CWA with low level moisture remaining and
only mid-upper level drying to occur. While cloud cover will remain
overnight limiting dense fog potential, with the ridge passing
through have introduced patchy fog across a fair amount of the CWA,
and especially the north where winds will be lightest.
While winds will be easterly tomorrow, with the thinner cloud
deck temperatures should be able to jump a few more degrees into
the mid 50s in most locations. A bit more erosion of the
northern/northwestern edge of the cloud deck will likely occur as
well Tuesday before the next system once again keeps the region
blanketed in cloud cover.
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday night through Monday/
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Primary focus in the long term will continue to be on the relatively
active weather pattern...with cool and wet conditions continuing
over Iowa and the central Midwest.
Tuesday Night thru Thursday Night: Forecast Confidence = Medium/High
The next in the wave train of low pressure systems is expected to
slowly track across the southern plains from Tuesday night into
early Friday. While the most robust low level moisture and
potential for severe wx will likely remain well south of
Iowa...persistent WAA/isentropic upglide and deep moisture
convergence will lead to widespread precipitation development by
early Wednesday morning. Periods of deformation zone precipitation
will then continue off and on right into early Friday. While most
of the precip will likely fall as rain...kept a mention of a
rain/snow mix across far northern Iowa on early Thursday morning.
Little or no snow accumulation expected. Total rainfall in this
period will likely range from 1-2" across the southern half of the
state...with 0.25" to 1.0" across the north. Did not see much river
response with the weekend rainfall...but with soils more saturated
now...will need to keep an eye on river trends by midweek. With
overcast and rainy conditions...highs on Wed/Thu are expected to be
a bit below climo avgs...generally in the 40s to perhaps the lower
50s south. Overall...rather dreary and raw.
Friday and Friday Night: Forecast Confidence = Medium
A brief lull in the action is expected on Friday as weak high
pressure builds into the region. However...model soundings and time
sections still show considerable RH/saturation in the lower
levels...thus expecting partly to mostly cloudy conditions to
continue. If we can eek out a little sun...highs expected to rise a
few degrees into upper 40s to lower 50s on Friday.
Saturday thru Monday: Forecast Confidence = Low
Higher uncertainty in the forecast late in the period as the
deterministic and ensemble solutions track yet another closed low
across the southern U.S. Have maintained chance PoPs in the
forecast for Saturday into Sunday for now...but the overall trend of
the solutions have been slower and further south with this low.
Plenty of time to fine tune this period in the upcoming days.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening/
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Made notable changes for KMCW, KFOD, and KALO by reducing vsbys
overnight tonight. If clearing becomes more pronounced, especially
KMCW and possibly KFOD may reach 1/2 SM vsbys or less. Fog should
lift by 15z Tue. CIGs likely to hover near 3000 ft, meaning it
will be difficult to pin down MVFR vs VFR with confidence for
Tuesday afternoon/evening until 12Z and 18Z Tue TAF packages.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kotenberg
SHORT TERM...Curtis
LONG TERM...Small
AVIATION...Kotenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
923 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Updated the forecast for tonight to bring in fog a bit earlier and
extend farther east to include all of tri-cities. I suspect a
portion of the CWA may really tank late tonight as both the HRRR
and SREF indicate that this is a distinct possibility as we will
be on the west edge of stratus and we cleared late in the day for
much of the CWA. HSI even temporarily dipped to 2 1/2SM earlier in
the afternoon when sun broke out and warmed a soaked ground. Will
monitor to see if it is prudent to go any further with fog
potential.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Current stratus has been slow to erode this afternoon, but the
western and northern areas have seen a little sun this afternoon.
The southeast may struggle to get much sun unless it erodes a little
faster. The clouds have also impacted temperatures this afternoon
and will likely cool things of a little.
With the stratus not going away, there will likely be some more
stratus and some fog tonight. With the surface high gradually moving
to the east, there will be a more easterly component to the winds
this evening and tonight.
Late tonight there will be an upper level wave that approaches from
an upper low on the high plains. Some light rain should move into
the western part of the forecast area late tonight. On Tuesday, the
upper low continues to move slowly into the central and southern
plains. The chance of precipitation spreads to the east and much of
the forecast area should get some precipitation by late afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
The upper level low will move to the east Tuesday night through
Thursday and is expected to continue to bring chances for
precipitation to the area. The best chances will be from Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. Precipitation should be fairly
widespread and there should be some beneficial rain for most. By
Thursday, the upper low is moving to the east and precipitation
should move out of the area during the afternoon.
Thursday night and Friday there is a weak upper level ridge moving
through the area and a surface high drifts through. This period
should be dry, even if there are some clouds around the area.
Friday night through Saturday night there is another upper level low
that moves out of the Rockies and through the central and southern
plains. The models have some differences in them that could lead to
some changes in the weather. The ECMWF has more of an open wave that
moves through a little faster than the GFS with a cut off low in the
southern plains that is slower. There are still some good chances
for some precipitation, but with the model differences, there is a
little uncertainty. That uncertainty continues into Sunday through
Monday. Currently have followed more of the ECMWF with the open wave
that gives a break during the day on Sunday, then brings in another
wave Monday.
Through the period, temperatures will be a few degrees either side
of normal or this time of year. A couple of the nights may be a
little on the cooler side and there could be a mix of snow. Have
tried to keep this to a minimum since it has been so warm it may be
a bit of a challenge to get much snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Biggest issue will be chance of fog. Being on the west edge of
stratus and light wind will put us in a position of potential
lower fog than in the forecast. This will be monitored closely,
and visibility may need lowered, despite some models not picking
up on any dense fog.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Heinlein
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
633 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a shortwave
trough moving over northeast Minnesota and western Lake Superior
early this afternoon. Scattered showers continue to develop ahead
of the shortwave over north-central and far northeast WI. Think
will see the showers continue to develop through the rest of the
afternoon. But drier air lies just to the west, with the leading
edge of the clearing approaching Rice Lake and Hayward. Meanwhile,
high pressure is building south over Manitoba. Forecast concerns
include shower potential extending into this evening, followed by
cloud trends and fog potential.
Tonight...Shortwave trough will continue to move northeast over Lake
Superior tonight. Mid-level moisture will depart with the shortwave
early in the evening, so think the light shower activity will have
mostly departed by 00z. Attention then turns to cloud trends.
Nearly all guidance shows drying coming in from the north as
Canadian high pressure builds into the region. How quickly that
occurs varies from model to model, and generally sided with the
slower RAP, which was not that different from the previous forecast.
If clearing does occur late in the evening into the early overnight
across northern WI, then there is potential for dense fog/low
stratus to redevelop as temperatures cool under light winds. With
the late departure of the clouds over central and east-central WI,
however, do not think will see those same trends further south. Low
temps falling into the mid 20s north to the mid 30s south.
Tuesday...High pressure will continue to build south into the
region. Any lingering low clouds and fog will look to dissipate by
mid-morning as dry air gets mixed down from aloft. Then should see
ample sunshine for the rest of the day. Quite a difference of 925mb
temps in the models, but trended warmer towards the ecmwf, since
think bias corrected grids may be influenced from the cooler/wetter
pattern of the past few days. Highs ranging from the mid 40s near
the lake to the mid 50s over central WI.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Quiet weather to start the long term, then a low pressure system
will bring precip chances to the area Thursday into Friday, but
the 12z/27 models have shifted south, keeping the bulk of the
precip south of the area. However, questions still remain if this
shift is temporary or if it will stick. Near normal temperatures
are expected Wed-Fri then above normal readings return for the
weekend.
Dry conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as
surface high pressure slides across Ontario and mid-upper level
ridging pushes across the Great Lakes. Mostly clear skies are
expected to start Tuesday night, but mid-upper clouds will be
approaching as moisture increases ahead of the next system, so
not expecting much sunshine on Wednesday as mid clouds are
expected with highs mainly in the 40s.
Attention turns to the system ejecting out of the southwest U.S.
on Wednesday. GFS remains farthest south with the track and
associated precip, and now has the system completely missing the
area. Canadian trended south on its 12z/27 run, with most of
central and north central WI missing out on any significant
precip, but still brings up to 0.75" of liquid to east central WI
Thursday and Thursday night (seems to be the outlier now). The
12z/27 ECMWF trended to the south as well, keeping the swath of
heavier precip just to our south across southern WI and only a
tenth or two of liquid over far east central WI. Models are
trending south, but a flip- flop is always possible with these
systems so confidence on how this system will play out remains on
the low- medium side.
Bottom line...the chances for getting any accumulating snow and/or
heavy precip looks to be diminishing at this point, due to a
southern shift to the system keeping the bulk of the precip over
southern WI. Plus, ground temps will be pretty warm, with much/all
of the frost out of the ground across east central WI thanks to
the recent rain and above freezing temps. Would need to get into
the heavy precip to cool the boundary layer sufficiently for snow
and to get anything to stick on the ground. Will reduce POPs
significantly across central and north central WI and keep nearly
the entire area dry on Friday.
Canadian shows lingering moisture in the cyclonic which would
keep a few showers around Friday night into Saturday morning, but
other models are dry. Will lean toward the drier models. A mid-
level shortwave will cross the northern Great Lakes on Saturday,
with a secondary shortwave right on its heels for Sunday. Both
could touch of a few showers, but at the surface weak high
pressure will be in place, plus there will be no deep moisture to
work with so activity is expected to be isolated at best. In
addition, not much skill in trying to time these fast moving
features this far out. Will keep POPs on the low side or out of
the forecast all together until the picture gets a little clearer.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
MVFR ceilings clearing from northwest to southeast overnight,
though low clouds could form where skies are clear for several
hours. So look for some clearing this evening but possible areas
of low clouds late tonight where skies do clear. Skies should
become mostly clear by 15z Tuesday with good flying weather
Tuesday afternoon and evening.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Bersch
AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
205 PM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region tonight
through Wednesday before another fast moving a potentially windy
storm system drops into the Great Basin on Thursday and Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Northwest flow continues over the region with
strong and gusty winds over the Kern County Mountains and desert
and to a lesser degree the west side of the San Joaquin Valley.
Gusts thus far have been as high as 64 mph at Cache Creek Weigh
station on Highway 58 and 57 mph at California City. Current
surface pressure gradient is 9.4 millibars between Bakersfield and
China Lake and 16 mb from San Francisco and Las Vegas. Latest HRRR
model keeps gusts to over 45 knots going in the desert through
around 8 pm, thus the advisory and high wind warning will remain
in place. Winds subside quickly overnight per the same model.
Given the continued northwest flow into the Grapevine area, pops
will remain in place for upslope drizzle or light rain mainly
along San Joaquin Valley facing slopes through the evening.
Models are in good agreement in building a ridge over the region
Tuesday and Wednesday for a warming and drying trend along with
much lighter winds. The flow will become easterly over the Kern
County with some light offshore or pseudo Santa Ana winds over
the Tehachapi`s. The next system is progged to push southeast into
the Great Basin Thursday afternoon and evening bringing a
returned threat of strong winds over the Kern County mountains and
desert and some quick hitting light precipitation in the Sierra.
More ridging follows for the weekend with models bringing a very
similar tracked low into the region on Monday. All in all a roller
coaster ridge of fast moving lows and ridges.
&&
.AVIATION...
In the San Joaquin Valley and Grapevine region widespread mvfr
and local ifr in clouds and drizzle along south end of valley
through 12z otherwise VFR over entire area through 00z Wednesday.
Gusty winds to 50kts possible over Kern County mountain passes and
desert through 06z.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ095-098-099.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ089>091.
&&
$$
public...Dudley
avn/fw...Dudley
synopsis...Dudley
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
852 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Changeable conditions will persist for the next several days.
There is a chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms Tuesday
and again Friday and early Saturday. The weekend should be dry
with an increasing chance of showers early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM Monday...Have followed closely to the HRRR model
for pcpn this evening which pretty much has it dissipating by
now in conjunction with what the latest KLTX 88D is displaying
attm. However, both the RAP and HRRR are somewhat in unison in
re-developing pcpn just southwest of the ILM CWA during the
pre-dawn hrs and pushes northeast and affects the SW thru W
portions of the ILM CWA toward daybreak Tue. Have re-vamped
POPs to low chance in these areas. Have continued the increase
in pops for showers and tstms during Tue morning ahead of the
approaching dynamics aloft. The instability avbl for thunder
will be borderline but given time of day and marginal being
advertised by SPC for the ILM NC CWA, have kept thunder included
thruout the FA. Tonights lows in the 50s to near 60 needed very
little tweaking.
Although the official surf zone forecast season has not started
yet. It bares to mention that local beaches will see some
increase to rip current activity during Tuesday. This a result
of a healthy SE ground swell affecting the local waters and
increasing the surf.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Mid level ridging moving slowly across the
Tennessee Valley will be the main player through the short term
period. This will allow high pressure to migrate from the Great
Lakes region into a cold air damming scenario by early
Thursday. With a cold front moving offshore early in the period,
pops will not be an issue through the period. Expect mostly
sunny skies Wednesday with some low level cloudiness developing
in with the wedge early Thursday. Expect another warm day
Wednesday with highs possibly reaching and eclipsing 80 degrees
before the cool down Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Strong high pressure centered across
Quebec Province Thu morning will ridge south across the eastern
Carolinas. The ridge will drift offshore during the day Thu and
Thu night. Strong low pressure across the Midwest Thu night will
move to the northeast and gradually weaken. Its attendant cold
front will move across the area Fri night. Deep moisture will be
tapped ahead of this system, but the best upper level support
will pass by to our N. Still expect a likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms Fri and Fri night. Drier air will gradually build
into the area on Sat as high pressure slowly builds from the NW,
but with cool air aloft, can not rule out an isolated shower or
thunderstorm. Upper ridge late in weekend will move offshore
during Mon and this will allow a very potent southern stream
system to bring a heightened risk of showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern Carolinas as it lifts NE from the Gulf Coast
states into the southern Great Lakes region and brings a surge
of deep Gulf of Mexico moisture northward.
High temps will be above normal through the period, lower to mid
70s. Lows will be mainly in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...VFR conditions for the evening and much of the
overnight. The evening`s convection has pretty much dissipated.
However, dynamics aloft toward daybreak Tue become conducive for
possible MVFR conditions from either plain shra or an isolated
tstorm. The better chance for MVFR and isolated IFR conditions
from convection due to better instability and forcing mechanisms
occurs between 13Z Tue thru 21z Tue. The cold front will lag
behind the convection and will likely push thru late Tue night
or early Wed. With plenty of clouds at different levels,
radiational type fog tonight should not be widespread if it`s
even able to develop. Generally looking at SSW to SW winds 5 kt
or less overnight and picking back up to SW 10-15 kt during
daylight Tue. Could see a weak resultant wind bndry that backs
winds to the S 10-15 kt across the coastal terminals during Tue
aftn.
Extended outlook...MVFR and possibly IFR Conditions due to
widely scattered Tue evening showers/thunderstorms. MVFR and
possibly IFR conditions possible from fog Wed morning. MVFR/IFR
conditions due to scattered showers and thunderstorms Fri/Fri
night.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 815 PM Monday...Looking at SSE to SSW winds around 10 kt
for the overnight period. Ridging from the offshore high will
drop south of the area...allowing winds to become more SW during
Tue. The sfc pg will tighten-some during Tue with wind speeds
increasing to 10 to 15 kt.
Significant seas will generally run 3 to 4 ft tonight and 3 to 5
ft during Tue. A well established SE ground swell at 10 to 11
second periods will dominate the seas spectrum tonight thru Tue.
Even with an increase of wind driven waves during Tue, the SE
ground swell will remain the dominant input to the significant
seas. Both WaveWatch3 and local SWAN highlight this ground
swell. The swell is coming from a rather deep low pressure
system well offshore from the SE U.S. Coast that is moving
northeast, further away from the U.S. mainland.
Boaters navigating to and from area inlets on Tue could
encounter rough wave conditions especially during an outgoing
tide combined with the incoming 10+ second period swell.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Expect changeable winds through the period as
initially a southwest flow of around 15 knots will be in place. A
cold front will quickly move across the waters by 12z Wednesday
with a weak west to northwest flow. This modest flow will be in
place for about six hours or so before a surge from the
northeast commences. This surge will last through the remainder
of the period with winds from the northeast on the lower end of
a 15-20 knot range. Significant seas will be 3-5 feet early and
late in the period with 2-4 feet in between.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...A Small Craft Advisory may be required
for all waters Fri and Fri night.
Strong high pressure centered across Quebec Province Thu morning
will ridge south across the waters. The ridge will drift offshore
during the day Thu and Thu night. Strong low pressure across the
Midwest Thu night will move to the northeast and gradually weaken.
Its attendant cold front will move across the waters Fri night. High
pressure will gradually build across the waters from the NW during
Sat. The wind direction will be from the NE Thu morning, veering to
the E Thu afternoon and SE Thu night. S winds Fri will veer to SW
Fri night and then shift to W toward Sat morning. Wind speeds will
be 15 to 20 kt Thu and Thu night and may increase to 20 to 25 kt
Fri/Fri night. Wind speeds on Sat will be 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be
3 to 5 ft Thu and Thu night, building to 4 to 7 ft Fri/Fri night
before subsiding to 3 to 4 ft Sat afternoon.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...DCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1030 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.UPDATE...
The Aviation Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
An active forecast period is expected for Central Indiana as
several troughs and ridges rotate through the area. The first
system is currently approaching the forecast area and is expected
to produce showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight.
After that, weak ridging will result in dry conditions for mid-
week, but another system will approach from the southwest on
Wednesday night. This will keep high rain chances in the forecast
through the end of the week along with the threat for additional
thunderstorms. At that point, the pattern will almost repeat again
with a dry period for the weekend followed by another system late
in the extended period.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Rest of tonight/...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Radar mosaic shows an area of showers across much of central
Indiana at 10 pm. Currently no lightning showing up across the
area. However HRRR and RAP continue to show some elevated
instability available over the next few hours across the southern
half or so of the area, so kept a slight chance for thunderstorms
going for that part of the area until 6z. Rain will continue over
much of the area until moving out from west to east starting
around 6z during the overnight, with dry conditions expected
everywhere around daybreak. Cloudy skies will be the rule with low
center moving through the area and being in the wake of the low
after it moves east. Could see a decent gradient in low
temperatures as the northwest could drop into the mid 40s before
daybreak as the low moves east (currently a couple obs of mid 40s
in northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana), but most of the
area should stay in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Thursday/...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Rain showers will end from west to east very early tomorrow
morning, and then dry conditions will prevail through Wednesday
evening as ridging strengthens aloft.
Focus then turns to the next system, which will start impacting
Central Indiana on Wednesday night. This system will take almost
the same exact path as the near term system, approaching from the
southwest. Inserted mention of thunderstorms with this forecast
issuance starting Wednesday night across the southwestern
counties, spreading northeast across the forecast area on
Thursday. As of now, any severe threat with this system is
expected to stay south, but this could change quickly with any
shifts in the path.
Temperatures through the period will be in the 60s, increasing to
the low 70s by Thursday as warm advection increases with
aforementioned system. Meanwhile, overnight lows will generally be
in the 40s with some 50s across the southern counties.
&&
.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Timing of showers will be the main focus for the long term.
The general weather pattern will remain the same through the long
term with alternating Pacific upper lows and ridges. Each upper low
will dive southeast across dessert southwest and southern Plains and
then lift northeast over the Ohio Valley.
Thursday night will start off with the first upper low over the
Ozarks. It will open up and move east over the Ohio Valley on
Friday. Southerly flow along and ahead of the associated frontal
system will bring deep moisture and some instability to the area as
well as synoptic forcing. Thus, expect widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms from Thursday night through Friday. An upper ridge
will follow and should keep the weather quiet from early Saturday
through Sunday morning. Then, the next in the upper train will bring
shower chances back to central Indiana by Monday.
Low level thermal progs and expected cloud cover support slightly
above normal blend temperatures with highs in the mid 50s to mid
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 28/0300Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
With the update...went more pessimistic at KLAF with low MVFR/high
IFR developing already and upstream sites showing several obs with
IFR ceilings. For KIND added some light showers for the next couple
of hours but not convinced these will impact category until after 4z
or so. Rest of TAFs on track. Previous discussion follows...
Scattered rain showers will bring MVFR conditions over the next
few hours for TAF sites across Central Indiana. These scattered
showers will move out of the area by midnight leaving behind
ceilings that will lower into IFR by sunrise. Some isolated fog
will be possible, but with low confidence it will be left out at
this time. Ceilings will begin to rise by mid to late afternoon to
MVFR and will remain there through the evening. Winds will remain
less than 10 knots and generally be north to northeasterly
through the period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...White/CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1159 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017
Have eliminated the thunder in the far east as the leading edge
has moved into West Virginia and Virginia. Also freshened up the
POP trends as the southern cold pool showers gradually move east
and dissipate. Updates have been sent.
UPDATE Issued at 1112 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017
The severe threat is over, as the last of the storms will exit
far eastern Kentucky before midnight, with just some cold pool
showers following on its heels, as well as another area of showers
affecting locations along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and
Highway 80 corridors. These showers will exit southeastern
Kentucky in the next few hours. There will be lull in the activity
following this, until the surface cold front and short wave
trough axis nears before dawn. Have allowed for an uptick in
showers once again that will carry into Tuesday, before finally
diminishing by Tuesday night. Patchy fog will also be seen
overnight, especially in areas that saw locally heavy rainfall.
Temperatures will not move much from current readings in the mid
to upper 50s.
UPDATE Issued at 843 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017
Ongoing complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is gradually
winding down as it heads east well ahead of the parent forcing.
There are still pockets of severe wind gusts following a
persistent lead supercell in the central portion of the forecast
area. Expect a continuing gradual decline of this activity through
10 pm, with a lull in the action until a short wave trough axis
approaches from the west overnight. This will likely bring an
uptick in convection once again, but mainly just showers.
Freshened up the POP timing based on the radar trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 440 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017
A shortwave trough is expected to dampen as it moves into the OH
and TN Valley regions through tonight and then across the
Appalachians on Tuesday morning and then the Eastern Seaboard by
the end of the period. At the same time, a surface low will track
near or north of the OH River through this evening and tonight
and then into the mid Atlantic states through the end of the
period. Height rises and mid and upper level ridging area expected
behind the shortwave with surface high pressure nosing into the OH
Valley on Tuesday night.
Isolated to at times scattered convection continues to move
across parts of central and eastern KY in advance of more
organized convection over western and west central Ky and western
and middle TN. This earlier convection has produced some hail
across the region and marginally severe hail and some wind would
appear to be a threat over the next couple of hours. MLCAPE of 500
to 1000 J/KG over the far south and MUCAPE of 500 to 1000 J/KG
across the area combined with 35 to 40KT of 0-6km shear would
support this although much of the area has been worked over and
the southwest part of the area should be the first to destabilize
again per RAP and model forecasts though much of the western part
of the CWA is expected to reach ML or MUCAPE near 1000 J/KG for a
time in the west. Satellite trends would also support another
window for heating in the south. The far southwest counties remain
in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch through 3Z. Trends will continue to
be monitored for Severe thunderstorm chances further east, but
much of this area has received convection this evening or in the
case of the VA border counties has lower sfc dewpoints due to
downsloping effects.
Some of the convective allowing models bring the convection into
east KY around 23Z to 01Z but weaken the eastern line segment as
this will near sunset and boundary layer should begin to
stabilize. The models generally take the westernmost line east or
southeast with the recent HRRR runs favoring southeast while some
previous runs brought some of that convection more toward Lake
Cumberland. However, pending strength of cold pool, the first more
northern line segment of convection may not weaken as quickly as
models project as it moves in. Wind appears to be the primary
threat with any of this convection with bowing line segments and
possibly marginal hail from the strongest updrafts. Locally heavy
rain will also be possible if storms could train in an area.
Chances for thunderstorms will begin to diminish overnight with
shower chances also decreasing late as well as the surface low
tracks into the mid OH Valley and the cold front works into the
area and the axis of the 500 mb trough approaches. Chances for
convection will decrease through the day on Tuesday as the trough
and low pressure system exit to the east and northeast and mid and
upper level as well as sfc high pressure begin to build in. Low
level moisture is expected to linger well into Tuesday night, but
if the low clouds thin, radiational fog will be possible and
subsidence could bring some stratus build down late Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017
The extended period should once again feature good chances for
showers and thunderstorms from late Thursday morning through early
Friday evening. The trigger for this activity will likely be a
slow moving area of low pressure that is progged to move across
the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley regions. The slow forward
motion of the system should keep rain in eastern Kentucky through
Saturday morning. Thunderstorm chances should come to an end
around 0Z Saturday, as the best upper level support and overall
lift should be east of the area as the low pressure system moves
off to our east. The rain should begin quickly tapering off
around dawn Saturday morning, with the rain being completely out
of the area before noon on Saturday. The weather should remain dry
from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night, as an area of
high pressure settles over the region. Our next round of rain
could move into eastern Kentucky very early Monday morning, but
due a lot of uncertainty still exists that far out in the period.
Temperatures will continue to run well above normal, with daily
highs ranging from the mid to around 70 on most days. Thursday
looks to be by far the warmest day, with forecast highs on that
day in the 70s. Nightly lows should generally be in the 40s and
50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 843 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017
Showers and thunderstorms will exit east across the area through
03z. The stronger cells will contain IFR or worse visibilities
with wind gusts of 35 to 40 kts. Ceilings will gradually lower
through the night down to IFR levels, as winds shift from the
southwest to west northwest behind a passing cold front. Scattered
to numerous showers will also continue through dawn, before
diminishing from west to east through the day on Tuesday. Ceilings
will gradually improve towards the end of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
653 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
The SREF...HRRR...HRRREXP and RAP models suggest one more round of
fog developing late tonight and affecting areas along and east of
highway 83 across ncntl Neb. This one looks more like an advection
upslope fog event but the models suggest visibility could fall to
1/4 mile. Areas of fog are in the forecast.
The rain event for Tuesday continues on track. There have been only
minor changes to the forecast...mainly regarding timing. The model
consensus is a bit slower with the onset of the rain moving in after
midnight tonight.
The RAP model indicates precipitable water will increase to around
0.75 inches which is above 200 percent of normal and a very modest
30kt low level jet develops tonight aiming the moisture up the high
plains. The moisture advection should continue Tuesday until severe
weather gets underway across the Srn Plains. Thereafter easterly
upslope winds will draw moisture into the storm affecting wrn and
ncntl Neb.
The forecast uses a blended approach for rainfall. The SREF and GEF
were the wettest solns. These models were able to focus more
moisture advection farther north.
Temperatures...winds and dew points are a blend of guidance plus
bias correction for lows in the 30s and 40s tonight and highs in the
40s and 50s Tuesday which was very close to a blend deterministic
model data with or without bias correction.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
An active pattern this week across much of the country, as a series
of Pacific storm systems track east and amplify, creating widespread
rain in the plains and mountain snow. Some snow may mix in across
the western high plains, but accumulations seem unlikely at this
time due to mild temperatures.
The first system will slowly cross the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
A shortwave trough will dig southeast from the Pacific northwest,
and be located across northern New Mexico by early Tuesday evening
where it will have closed off. Deep southerly mid and upper level
flow from TX to NE ahead of the system, with bands of rain moving
northward within the flow Tuesday night. By Wednesday evening the
system will have migrated to western Oklahoma or southern Kansas,
with a deformation band of rain located to it`s northwest. It
continues to appear that our far southeast portions from Broken Bow
to North Platte stand the best shot of getting in on this
deformation band of precipitation, but a slight northward shift of
the system would mean more of the area seeing precipitation from the
band. By Thursday this will all begin to shift east of the area with
some sunshine by afternoon in area of subsidence aloft behind the
system. Right now thinking a widespread 0.50 to 1.25 inches of rain
will accumulate from this first system, with the 1.25 inch amounts
most likely across southwest Nebraska.
A second system takes a similar path and dives southeast into
northern New Mexico by Saturday. It too is forecasted to close off
and then track eastward across the central and southern plains
through the weekend. Chance to likely pops will remain in the
forecast for this system, with the best chances at this time
appearing to reside across southwest Nebraska.
As far as temperatures this week, mild conditions with near normal
highs in the 50s. Low temperatures, however, will average a bit
above normal in the 30s to near 40 degrees due to abundant cloud
cover and expected precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Clouds will increase from the west tonight with stratus developing
generally after midnight. Ceilings will lower into IFR categories
with MVFR visibilities as light rain developw over western
Nebraska through the early morning hours and slowly moves east.
Widespread light rain will continue over most of western Nebraska
through the day on Tuesday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Power
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
716 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Still have some pre squall line storms popping up with hail and some
winds. Just had a report come in from Nelson county of quarter sized
hail. Other line is just along our border with JKL.
Main line has cut through roughly half of the forecast area, so went
ahead and cut out part of the watch box behind the line. Watching
the bowing segment over southern Indiana as well, but the FRH AWOS
site only gusted to 27 knots as the line went through.
Issued at 520 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Latest RAP mesoanalysis has not been handling the amount of
available CAPE well, as we`ve had several hail reports, mostly
quarter sized or less, though cannot rule out some larger hail in
the pre-frontal airmass from FTK east to KLEX over the next few
hours.
The other area of concern is with the more linear feature moving
near the I-65 corridor in Central KY this hour. This area has the
most potential instability to work with, as temperatures are well
into the 70s along our border with TN. Seeing some bowing segments
within this line and have issue warnings accordingly. HPX radar was
showing winds closer to 70 mph with this line, but have not had any
reports near that level just yet.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
...Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon and Evening...
Strong to severe storms are likely this afternoon with much of the
area under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch through this evening. These
storms are courtesy of a low pressure system moving northeast
through southern IN/northern KY. 1000-2000 j/kg of CAPE has
developed south of the warm front which was over southern IN as of
315pm EDT. 30-40 kts deep layer shear is supportive of both discrete
cells which we`re seeing on radar in our region currently and will
be supportive of the line of storms over western KY which is progged
to move east through the region between 5pm-midnight tonight.
========================
Storm Threats & Timing
========================
Cellular convection will pose a large hail/damaging wind/isld
tornado threat between now and 8pm EDT.
Expect mainly a damaging wind threat with the line of storms but
small hail and a brief spin-up will be possible as well between 5pm
and midnight EDT.
=========================
Convection should decrease after midnight with elevated showers and
perhaps an isld t-storm during the early morning hours in the wake
of the evening complex. Overnight lows will range through the 50s.
For Tuesday, expect some lingering rain showers mainly east of I-65
before the area becomes totally dry late in the day. High
temperatures will be in the 60s. Lows Tues night will range through
the upper 40s/lower 50s.
.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017
Expect dry weather on Wednesday before the pattern turns active
again for the latter portion of the week. A strong low pressure
system will bring the chance for showers/storms to the region
beginning on Thu/Fri. Depending on exact evolution and timing, some
of these storms could be on the strong side. Thu looks to the be
the warmest day in the long term period with highs in the mid to
upper 70s across much of the area.
For the weekend, expect dry weather and slightly cooler temps with
highs dropping back into the 60s. Another low pressure system looks
to approach the area again by the beginning of the work week next
week.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Line of storms now getting into LEX, with residual rains, occasional
lightning, at the other sites. Will see the worst of it end in the
next few hours, then get a break by just after midnight before some
lower ceilings kick in. Have gone low-end MVFR at BWG/SDF around
daybreak, but went worse for LEX through the morning hours, based on
time height sections and longer time in the moisture overnight in
the east. Lower ceilings should stick around for much of the day
Tuesday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...RJS
Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...RJS
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
958 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land and marine areas below.
&&
.UPDATE...Upstream deep convection on the wane as forecast. Will
have to watch because there are still some marginal strength
updrafts updraft for SPS/sub-severe criteria. Those updrafts will
continue moving very slowly east in the flow until they weaken
altogether in the next few hours. MLCAPES down 200-600 J/KG from
3 hours ago. Did have one multicell with a large weak echo region
/ very reflective elevated mid-level reflectivity core that moved
across Wayne Co., MS and into Choctaw/Washington Co., AL border
region. Getting some verification from that where we suspect hail
diameters from between 1-1.5" diameter. We appreciate the reports
received thus far.
Did a quick update to the grids and text products to better
describe the fog evolution overnight. Also left a slight rain
chance to the north through midnight. Finally, removed headline
for high rip current risk (see earlier discussion).
&&
.MARINE...42012 is back on-line (now with dewpoint). Significant
wave heights across the marine area generally anywhere from 2-3
feet with wave periods 5-6 sec. No changes to marine package
overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/
DISCUSSION...See updated information below.
UPDATE...Main impact to our area next few hours will be broken
line of multicells-supercells now moving into NW corner of our
area (Choctaw Co., AL). These updrafts will be capable of
supporting severe hail (1-1.5" in diameter) and possibly damaging
straight line winds. Developing updrafts further SW, to affect our
interior SE MS counties within the hour. As thought all along,
Choctaw- Wayne, Clarke and Wilcox stand the greatest chances of
experience an isolated severe thunderstorm through mid- evening.
The line will proceed east early this evening and main impact
will be large hail and possible damaging straight line winds.
MLCAPEs in ambient environment ahead of line range from 750 J/KG
NW zones to near 1500 J/KG closer to the coast. Instability trend
is down past few hours, of course given time of day. Nearly 35-40
kt of bulk shear supporting both multicells (with observed new
cell growth on low-level SW flank) and occasional supercells
(observed deep persistent rotation where propagation forces storm
motion to right, temporarily). Latest guidance shows these storms
will be affecting our region with waning intensity through 9-10 PM
and that should just about do it.
Will allow High Risk of rip currents to finally go to `Moderate`
around dark, thus RP.S will expire.
Did make some tweaks to grids to reduce rainfall amount for
interior sections tomorrow afternoon. /23 JMM
AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Pretty much a forecast of persistence overall, as
with last night. With sunset, will see mainly stratus rolling
inland again by 03Z from S to N with mainly CIGs falling into
IFR-LIFR range through midnight. Condition persists with
occasional sfc vsbys at some TAF sites dropping below 1 SM from
6-10 UTC. After sunrise, VFR conditions by 15 UTC regionwide.
Tomorrow afternoon, cloud streets will keep some occasional broken
MVFR CIGs around int he afternoon. Light S winds with low end
gusts subsiding by 02 UTC and resuming after 16 UTC tomorrow,
especially near the coast. /23 JMM
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/
NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...Thunderstorms developing over
central MS to northern and central LA within an airmass
characterized by increased afternoon instability (MUCAPES having
increased to 2000-3000 J/KG). Latest high resolution HRRR is more
robust on carrying activity eastward, showing a series of
organized convective clusters passing over the interior zones this
evening. A few of the storms could produce marginally severe hail
and localized damaging wind gusts. The other guidance, NSSL WRF-
ARW and the 3 KM NAM are not as pronounced with their respective
solutions. Late afternoon and evening updates to storm coverage
over the interior will likely be required depending on convective
trends upstream.
Upper level storm system/trof axis over the Mid-South to begin
the near term, makes steady eastward progression across the
Appalachians Tuesday morning. A narrow zone of deep layer moisture
(pwats around 1.25") hangs back across the interior tonight and
provides enough moisture to maintain a small chance of
showers/storms over the northwest zones late. Surface pattern
remains mostly unchanged. A ridge of surface high pressure off the
Mid-Atlantic, ridging southwest into the central Gulf maintains a
persistent, light southerly flow and dewpoints well into the 60s.
This synoptic pattern favors the development of overnight fog
which could become dense in some areas. Overnight lows in the
lower to mid 60s. Despite, short wave mid-level ridge moving
eastward across the forecast area Tuesday, east to west zone of
deep layer moisture holds which supports the potential of showers
and storms during daytime heating when instability is better.
Though, with the presence of the upper ridge and its associated
sinking vertical motions to act as a counter to convective
development, will only keep probability of showers and storms in
slight chance ranges Tuesday. Tuesday`s highs in the lower to mid
80s interior and mid to upper 70s beaches. /10
SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...A significant
weather event is forecast for Thursday and Thursday night as a
strong storm system approaching the region from the west moves
across the area. A 100-120 knot 300 mb jet max over the far
western conus will carve out a highly amplified upper level
trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico by Tuesday
evening, with an embedded closed low forming over the desert
southwest. This upper trough and low pressure area will then
advance eastward over the southern Great Plains midweek. The
closed low is forecast to be over eastern Oklahoma Thursday
morning, take a turn to the northeast, reaching extreme southern
Illinois by late Thursday night. Meanwhile the southern portion of
the trough is expected to swing quicker to the east, aided by a
90 knot jet streak, and possibly become slightly negatively tilted
over the region late Thursday night.
A surface low pressure area is forecast to develop near the north
Texas/southwest Oklahoma border Tuesday night ahead of the
advancing upper level trough, and move east over eastern Oklahoma
by Thursday morning. This surface low will also take a turn to
the northeast, also reaching extreme southern Illinois by late
Thursday night. An associated cold front approaching the region
from the west Thursday evening will sweep through the forecast
area after midnight.
A deep southerly wind flow ahead of the system will advect
moisture northward across the region, with precipitable water
values climbing to between 1.5 to 1.7 inches Thursday afternoon
and evening. Both the ECMWF and GFS models are advertising MLCAPE
values between 500 to 700 J/KG on Thursday, with SFC-1km storm
relative helicity values ranging from 100 to 200 m2/s2. A 30 to
40 knot low level jet is also expected to accompany this system.
Upper level lapse rates will be in the 7 to 7.5 c/km range. The
pre-storm environment will favor the development of strong to
severe thunderstorms throughout the day Thursday into Thursday
night as a line of numerous storms advances east through the
region. Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are all
possible with this system. Heavy rainfall will also occur with
widespread 1 to 2 inches likely.
Otherwise it will be dry Tuesday night through midweek as an
upper level ridge moves east over region, along with a surface
high pressure ridge across the southeastern states and eastern
gulf remain largely intact.
Low temperatures each night will range from 58 to 62 degrees
inland areas, with mid 60s along the beaches. Warm temperatures
will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs ranging from 80
to 85 degrees inland areas, with mid to upper 70s along the
coastal sections. /22
Low temperatures each night will range from 58 to 63 degrees
inland areas, with mid 60s along the beaches. Warm temperatures
will continue Wednesday with highs ranging from 81 to 86 degrees
inland areas, and from 75 to 80 degrees along the coast. /22
LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...The precipitation will then
taper off from west to east late Thursday night and early Friday
in the wake of the cold front, followed by high pressure building
in from the west. The dry period will then persist through the
remainder of the week as an upper ridge and surface high pressure
dominate the southeast states. Precipitation chances will increase
once again early next week as yet another upper level trough
develops to our west and advances east over the southern plains,
with scattered showers and thunderstorms forecast for Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. Above normal temperatures will
continue through the long term. /22
MARINE...High pressure to the east maintains a light onshore
component of flow through the middle of the week with seas 2 to 4
feet in range. A stronger onshore flow and resultant fetch brings
higher seas Thursday ahead of a frontal boundary approaching from
the west. Increased coverage of showers and storms are expected
as this weather system approaches, with a few strong to severe
storms possible late Thursday. Winds decrease and seas show a slow
subsiding trend going into the upcoming weekend. /10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
624 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Updated for 00z aviation only.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Near term convective (svr) environment continues, with best
threat area appearing now to be shifting to Lakes/eastward across
southern Pennyrile, where best dew point surge/area of some
breaks/highest MU Capes coexist. Area of ongoing convection has
picked up steam, from around 32Kts earlier today to ongoing around
40Kts now, and this is anticipated as upper jet is moving in.
This should propel convection thru southern Ky fairly quickly,
with HRRR modeling the ongoing activity reasonably well, and
taking bulk of its pcpn thru the area/into scntl Ky/cntl Tn by
23Z. Will go near certainty Pops til then, and cut into them
drastically afterwards. May maintain upper trof/instability shower
chance or slight chance, esp east, overnight however.
After tonight, Tuesday offers a pause, with the upper ridge
nudging across the mid Mississippi/Tennessee valleys. Then another
robust storm system takes shape and ejects across the southern
Plains, moving its convection into the lower and mid Mississippi
valleys Wed night-Thursday, with maybe some warm sector/advection
chances showing up earlier, esp west, during the day Wed. A
similar environment is encountered so we are outlooked SWODY3
Marginal to Slight risk for late Wed night into Thursday morning,
with the 15% bubbling across western Ky Thursday, not too
dissimilar to today.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
A very active split flow pattern will continue across the CONUS
later in the week. The ECMWF has been less consistent than the GFS
with keeping the flatter northern and the amplified southern stream
unphased (phasing tended to result in faster forward movement).
However, the 12Z runs of the deterministic models seemed to be back
in reasonable agreement, and the consensus is that the PAH forecast
area will be affected by two systems in the extended forecast, one
on Thu/Fri which should hold together and move across our region,
and another probably on Mon which may become an open wave as it
approaches.
Overall, PoPs should remain rather high Thu/Thu night with the first
large low pressure system, though there may be at least one interval
of dry slotting in the warm sector sometime during the day Thu.
Thunderstorm chances should diminish from west to east Thu night,
but there might be a resurgence of instability during the day Fri
for the eastern half of the region under the mid level low.
At this time, the weekend looks mostly dry under mid level ridging
and a ridge axis of high surface pressure. As early as Sun night,
showers associated with the next low pressure system may occur in
the west, and expand across the region Mon. However, at Day 7, there
were significant model differences regarding the timing and
positioning of the system, so the forecast is subject to change.
Expect unseasonably warm temps Thu, followed by a drop of around ten
degrees on Fri, and a slow rebound through the rest of the extended
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
After a brief break in the cloud cover expect MVFR cigs to return
overnight and likely stick around for most of the valid time of
this issuance. Cant rule out isld shower as the low pulls out and
winds slowly shift to the north all locations between 3 and 6z
tonight. As the low deck builds and winds decrease there will be
some MVFR fog overnight until after sunrise Tuesday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...KH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
949 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southerly flow will continue tonight into Tuesday, with
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. Low
pressure in the Ohio Valley with a trailing cold front will lift
east tonight into Tuesday. Behind the front, drier air will
arrive for midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 940 PM EDT Monday...
Changes to the forecast this evening amount to mainly very
short term adjustment to chances of additional showers and and
storm through the next few hours. Adjustments will be based upon
the latest radar trends, which place isolated to scattered
coverage across the far southeast portion of the forecast area,
and soon-to-be arriving scattered showers and a few storms
across the far western portions of the area. As the night
progresses, the forecast will reflect progressively increasing
chances of showers from west to east as a cold front approaches
the area through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...
Isolated to scattered convection developing ahead of the cold front
this afternoon in the warm and unstable air. This convection is
developing ahead of a lead shortwave moving ahead of an upper trough.
The convective outlook for Day 1 places the marginal risk of severe
weather to our west with the best instability and dynamics. Highres
models like the HRRR and ARW showed isolated convection developing
this afternoon into tonight, especially along the southern Blue
ridge. Models enhance lift and low level convergence across the
Blue Ridge into the foothills after midnight into the overnight
as the front approach the Appalachians. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the upper 40s in the mountains to near
60 degrees in the Piedmont.
A strong cold front will move across our region Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will develop ahead
and along this boundary. The SWODY2 has placed eastern portions
of CWA in a marginal risk for Tuesday. The timing of the
shortwave on Tuesday with a favorable area of forcing for ascent
moving across eastern portions during the afternoon during peak
heating. The shortwave should move offshore around 29/00Z. The
strongest storms could produce hail and locally damaging wind
gusts. High temperatures Tuesday will vary from the upper 50s
in the mountains to the mid 70s in the Piedmont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 349 PM EDT Monday...
A cold front will move across the region Tuesday night with showers
exiting the piedmont during the evening. Some low level moisture may
squeeze out a few showers along western slopes overnight as the
theta-E boundary tracks south across the mountains. There is not
much cold air air behind this front, so any precipitation along
western slopes or across the mountains will be liquid and not frozen.
High pressure will move south out of Canada Wednesday, then wedge
down the east coast Wednesday night into Thursday. This wedge will
initial be dry and mostly clear Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon
temperatures will warm into the 60s west to 70s east. A strong area
of low pressure will track out of the Rockies Wednesday then across
the Midwest Thursday night. This system will throw warm moist air
over the wedge, increasing clouds and eventually the chance for
rain/drizzle. Saturation of the environment should not occur until
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Isentropic lift
increases during the day Thursday. With this in mind, we have
delayed the onset of stratiform rain/drizzle until late Thursday
morning and moreso along eastern slopes of the North Carolina High
Country and Grayson Highlands. The combination of rain falling into
a linger wedge will produce cool temperatures with highs in the 50s
areawide Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 349 PM EDT Monday...
A strong area on low pressure will track from the Midwest to the
south-central Appalachian mountains Thursday night into Friday. This
low will erode the wedge of cooler air that moved into the region
Wednesday. Dynamics from this low and with a retreating wedge
boundary, there is the possibility strong storms could develop across
the region Friday into Friday evening. However, timing is everything
with this event. Currently, models have dynamics and retreating
wedge environment occuring during the morning, which lowers the
threat for severe weather. If this event occurs later in the day,
then the threat for severe weather will increase. With an eroding
wedge, temperatures will increase Thursday night and into the day
Friday. Lows Thursday night will occur around midnight (upper 40s),
then rise into the low to mid 60s Friday afternoon.
This low pressure system and associated showers will exit the mid
Atlantic coast Friday night. Dry high pressure and near normal
temperatures will follow for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 805 PM EDT Monday...
Widespread mid and high VFR clouds will cover the Mid Atlantic
region tonight and Tuesday ahead of an upper low that will cross
through the Ohio Valley. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected
through 06Z/2AM. A cold front will extend from a low in Ohio
across the Tennessee Valley by 12Z. Numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and visibilities are
expected late tonight and through Tuesday along and ahead of the
front. MVFR to IFR ceilings will develop late tonight along the
Appalachians. Low confidence with how extensive the lower clouds
will be. Winds will be from the south to southeast ahead of
the front and from the west behind the front.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
The cold front exits the Virginia and North Carolina piedmont
after 00z Wednesday with lingering sub-VFR cigs in BLF/LWB with
VFR in the east of the Blue Ridge.
High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday into Thursday with
next storm system moving in the Mississippi Valley. A threat
for sub-VFR cigs appears likely as the high wedges southwest
Wed night into Thursday for most sites. The highest probability
of rain will be on Friday.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
200 PM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure aloft will bring gusty west winds to the mountains and
deserts through early this evening. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies
will prevail west of the mountains with temperatures a little below
normal. High pressure building into the Great Basin will bring
locally gusty northeast winds below passes and canyons tonight and
Tuesday. Mostly clear skies will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday with
warmer weather. Another low pressure system will move by to the
northeast Thursday and Friday and will bring strong westerly winds
to the mountains and deserts and cooler weather. Fair and warmer
weather will prevail next weekend under high pressure, with another
low pressure system possibly bringing cooling again early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
Partly cloudy skies prevailed west of the mountains with a small
amount of lingering fog along the coastal mountain slopes. The
marine layer was generally 5000-6000 feet deep which resulted in
the slow clearing in the valleys and foothills. West winds were
strong in the mountains and deserts with a 59 MPH gust at White
Water West just east of San Gorgonio Pass at mid-morning, though
most windy areas had peak gusts between 40 and 50 MPH today.
Local WRF model, HRRR and Cansac-WRF show these winds continuing
through around 7 PM tonight, then weakening somewhat as offshore
flow develops.
The low pressure trough axis was over So-Cal with two main waves but
not enough moisture for precipitation in our forecast area. The
trough will shift to the Four Corners tonight with rather tight
height gradients under NW flow behind the trough. A surface high
will build over northern Nevada late tonight and Tuesday and
contribute to moderate offshore flow, with surface MSLP gradients
around 10 MB from west-central Nevada to San Diego, though very much
northerly in orientation versus northeasterly. That will result in
winds below E-W ridges, mainly San Bernardino County, with some
winds in the Santa Ana Mountains. Mountain waves will not be
particularly strong, with most of the winds below the crests but not
as much in the valleys, except briefly late Tuesday morning after
surface heating results in some mixing. Overall, peak gusts will be
45-60 MPH. San Diego County will see very little of this wind due to
the northerly gradients. Winds will mostly decrease by Tuesday mid-
afternoon. By Tuesday morning, most areas will be clear, so that
combined with the cold low having exited to the east, will result in
5-10 deg F warming in most areas to slightly above normal. Wednesday
should be quite warm with temps around 10 deg F above seasonal
normals, which means a lot of 80s in the Inland Empire and far
inland valleys of San Diego County.
Models continue to have a deep low tracking from far northern
California to far northern Arizona from Thursday to Friday. This
inland track will most likely keep our area dry, but the mountains
and deserts could have strong winds, especially late Thursday and
Thursday night. Temperatures will decrease, though just to near or
very slightly below normal by Friday. The low will track east over
the weekend with fair weather to follow. Offshore flow will be
rather weak though. Temps will increase again to 5-10 deg F above
normal by Sunday. Another inland closed low could drop down from the
north early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
272040Z...SCT-BKN025-035 Tops 5000 ft through 03Z. An intermittent
ceiling near 3000 feet is possible at KSAN and KCRQ through 12Z
Tuesday. Mostly clear skies Tuesday.
Strong westerly winds 20-40 kt over the mountains and into some of
the deserts tonight with areas of strong up/downdrafts and LLWS over
and east of the mountains. The winds shift northeasterly after 04Z
Tuesday, surfacing in the Inland Empire through 23Z impacting KONT,
KSBD and possible KSNA with strong up/downdrafts and LLWS.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for strong northwest winds and
rough seas through Tuesday. Northwest winds will increase again
Thursday and continue through Friday leading to more choppy seas and
hazardous boating conditions.
&&
.BEACHES...
West to northwest swells will bring elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet
most of the week with occasional sets to 7 feet.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Apple and Lucerne
Valleys-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Tuesday for
San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland
Empire-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for Riverside County
Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass
Near Banning.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Coastal Waters
from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm-
Waters from San Mateo point to the Mexican Border Extending
30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Maxwell
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Moede
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
612 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Shortwave trof that brought rain across the area into early this
morning has moved east of the area, and continues to wrap low clouds
back southwestward into the forecast area. Starting to see some
breaks with the afternoon sunshine, but think this may be short
lived. Lingering cloud cover should hold overnight lows in the 40s,
with highs on Tuesday rising toward 60 most areas. High pressure
moving in from the north keeps northerly winds early, becoming east
southeast into Tuesday afternoon. Was hoping for some breaks in the
clouds, but as winds veer around from the east this would aid in
keeping low clouds lingering across the east. Western counties
should see an increase in mid/high clouds by late afternoon, with an
outside chance for rain far west in the late afternoon, but think
better chances are later in the evening and overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
The weather pattern in the long term looks and cool and wet. The
models are in good agreement in the mass fields with two more
significant upper lows moving through the southern plains this
forecast period.
The first should emerge into the southern plains on Tuesday and
then slowly move ENE with the 500 mph low reaching SW Missouri by
18Z Thursday per the 12z ECMWF which is expected to be vertically
stacked with the surface low in the same location. The 12z GFS is
in the same general area with the upper low, but it is northwest
over eastern kansas. With respect to the sensible weather in
northeast Kansas, all the 12z synoptic models are reasonably close
with a prolonged period of cool rain. There is enough elevated
instability to justify thunder in the forecast. QPF should be high
and there might be local flooding issues if the rain can focus
over a given area long enough.
The second upper low approaches the southern plains by this
weekend. We can expect 36 to maybe 48 hours of dry and cool
weather late this week into the weekend before the precipitation
associated with the next upper low moves in. There is certainly
more model differences with the next system, but there is enough
confidence to forecast more rain.
Overall, we can expect below normal temperatures through the
period in the pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
The RAP and NAM have tended to keep MVFR CIGS over the terminals
as 925MB winds back to the northeast and east. With satellite
showing an expansive cloud shift to the northeast, this makes some
since. There could be some tempo VFR CIGS this evening, but think
MVFR clouds should be predominate most of the forecast period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters