Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/17/17

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 921 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Late evening radar mosaic shows much of the rain has exited the
eastern forecast area, while showers in eastern Montana are now
entering southwest North Dakota. Have added a small chance of rain
southwest through midnight, which is in line with the HRRR/RAP.

UPDATE Issued at 747 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Sent another update to capture the latest radar trends, which
seems to have accelerated the back edge of the rain as it treks
east. With temperatures hovering around freezing in Rolette
County, we made a few calls and it sounds like there are now a few
slick spots on area roads, especially towards the Turtle
Mountains. Since the precipitation will be ending in the next hour
or so, opted to handle that with a Special Weather Statement.

UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Late afternoon radar mosaic shows light rain diminishing from
west to east across central North Dakota. The latest HRRR and RAP
agree this trend will continue with much of the rain exiting by
03z.

The initial surge of cold air advection tonight should bring a
period of increased winds. Winds could settle down again in some
locations before speeds increase again Friday due to improved
mixing.

UPDATE Issued at 448 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Rain a quick update to capture the latest radar trends. The
remainder of the forecast is on track so the only other
adjustment was to blend in current conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Today...a surface low and cold front will sweep through. Along and
ahead of the front light rain has developed. Light rain will
continue to overspread most of northern North Dakota, with patches
further south. Rain will come to an end this evening, then the
winds will kick in. Cold air advection and pressure rises will
increase winds to about 25 mph tonight. Much stronger winds will
be present aloft, but forecast soundings indicate a sharp
inversion near the surface preventing these winds from mixing
down.

Mixing should improve tomorrow late morning and early afternoon.
This could lead to winds as high as 35 mph briefly before the
pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure moves in.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

An upper level ridge quickly builds back into the Dakotas
Saturday with strong warming over the west. There should be a
large temperature difference across our area, with highs reaching
into the 60s in far southwestern ND while the Turtle Mountains
remains in the lower 30s.

Another strong clipper moves east across southern Canada
Sunday/Monday. There may be a quick shot of rain along the front
Sunday. The models depict a storm system developing along the West
Coast early next week. The latest runs have this system moving a
bit slower and not impacting North Dakota until Wednesday. This
system could bring us at least a couple of days worth of rain or
snow beginning Wednesday, though models differ greatly on phase
and placement of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Light rain will exit KMOT quickly this evening, so did not include
in the latest TAF. Will monitor KJMS for visibility restrictions
as a brief shower or sprinkle passes this evening. Winds are
expected to increase tonight and again Friday as colder air moves
into western and central North Dakota. The colder air could also
bring MVFR cigs with it.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CK




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cleveland OH

 1004 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Kentucky will move off the east coast on
Friday. A clipper low pressure system will cross the Great
Lakes Friday and Friday night dragging a cold front across the
local area Friday night. A secondary cold front will drop
across the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday. High pressure from
the plains states will move east across the area Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Updated...Did make minor timing adjustment to wx and pop grids
for Saturday to slow onset of precip by an hour or two but
forecast is largely the same. Also made adjustments to sky
grids for the overnight, but again, no big changes.

Original...Winds have backed enough that any remaining flurries
in eastern Erie County PA will end by forecast time (6 PM).

High pressure will be almost overhead early tonight. Dew points are
low and temperatures will drop quickly this evening especially where
snow cover remains. Went a little below min guidance temperature
especially where there was snow cover. Lows from the lower 20s to
the teens where there is snow cover.

Clouds will begin to increase from the west later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A swath of precipitation will move across the Great Lakes on
Friday, a combination of warm advection and a short wave aloft.
Snow should develop across northwest Ohio Friday morning. There
is some concern for a short period of freezing rain as it warms
aloft and temperatures remain near or below freezing at the
surface. The models have been trending an hour or two slower
with the arrival of precipitation on Friday. Also, with the
evaporational cooling aloft, the model soundings prog
temperatures aloft warming above freezing roughly the same time
or later than at the surface. This minimizes the threat for
freezing rain of any significance. Indications are that we will
see snow simply mix with and change to rain.

By afternoon it should be warm enough for most accumulations to
be on grassy surfaces although if it snows hard enough some
slushy snow could build up on the pavement in some areas for a
short time. Temperatures on Friday will rise though the 30s.

Hard to tell exactly what time the weak cold front will sweep across
the area on Friday night. Cold advection is weak but it will
gradually cool down enough that rain showers will mix back with
snow. It may never warm up above freezing at the surface across
sections on inland northwest PA and will mention freezing rain
there on Friday night.

Rain and snow showers are likely on Saturday as the trough
aloft/closed low drops across the Great Lakes. Current thinking is
that there will not be enough QPF to worry about much in the way of
snow accumulations except for perhaps some localized accumulations
in the higher terrain in the snow belt. high temperatures on
Saturday will likely be close to 40 but could drop back into
the 30s when the showers of rain and snow occur and downward
transfer increases.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Little change with the long term. Guidance is not too far off from
one another and generally went with a blend. High pressure overhead
Sunday. Cold front sweeps across the Great Lakes on Monday with area
of showers. Secondary trough Tuesday brings in enough cold air, that
provided there is enough moisture, could bring scattered lake effect
snow showers late Tuesday/Tuesday night across the snowbelt. Cool
high pressure settles across the region for mid week. Guidance does
begin to spread with next system coming out of the Rockies and
across the Plains which would bring a warm front to the area
Thursday/Friday. Overall seasonal temperatures through the period. A
brief warm up Monday ahead of the cold front. Wednesday looks to be
the coldest with eastern parts of the area sitting slightly below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Latest HRRR and RAP showing precip arriving slower than previous
forecast on Friday. Won`t slow down the precip arrival quite that
much but will add another hour or two of delay. Still looks like
precip can be snow or rain changing to mostly just rain from sw to
ne as the day progresses but ERI likely to be just snow thru 00z Fri
evening.

West to SW winds of 10 knots or less backing to south tonight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Friday night into Saturday. Non-VFR likely again
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure moving across the lake tonight will calm winds and
back them to the south by morning. Low pressure will track from
the upper lakes southeast across western NY on Saturday. This
will bring winds around to the west and then north-northwest
through the course of the weekend. Speeds should not be enough
to need a small craft advisory. Southerly flow returns Sunday
night with the next cold front slated to cross Lake Erie on
Monday. Northwest winds in the wake of this system may bring 4+
foot waves for Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...TK/Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Adams/Oudeman




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

 1012 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Decided to issue an advisory for much Central WI for the
overnight hours. Observations to the west with the band of
precipitation approaching central Wisconsin were reporting mainly
rain, while surface temperatures at 9 pm were around the freezing
mark with surface dewpoints very dry. Still may turn to more snow
due to evap cooling overnight, but 850 mb temps rise to near or
just above zero over central wisconsin to support more of a mix.
Later shifts may need to expand the advisory overnight especially
across the north. HRRR and latest NAM keeps the precipitation west
of GRB through 12z.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A round of wintry precipitation tonight into tomorrow, otherwise
fairly quiet weather for the next week.

The large scale pattern will deamplify and then reamplify some
during the next few days. After that, the main change will be a
gradual evolution toward a more split flow regime next week.
Temperatures will warm to a little above normal for the weekend,
then drop back to near or a little below normal for much of next
week. Precipitation amounts will probably end up a little below
normal for the period.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Clear and dry conditions this afternoon will give way to snow or
a wintry mix overnight into Friday morning before surface
temperatures warm above freezing, resulting in a change to rain.

Temperatures across the area reached the mid 30s to lower 40s this
afternoon. Dew points to the west of the Bay and Fox Valley were
mostly in the single digits, while teens dew points were common
farther to the east. Relative humidities were in the 15% to 30%
range in most locations. The dry air was evident on the 12Z GRB
sounding which showed some signs of moisture around 700mb but was
otherwise quite dry with a PWAT of 0.10".

Radar mosaic loop through early this afternoon showed an area of
precipitation across the Dakotas and far western Minnesota. This
was associated with an approaching mid level short and surface
system. 12Z models were slower in bringing precipitation into the
forecast area, which seemed reasonable based on the amount of dry
air in place. Based on forecast soundings from around the area,
precipitation should start out as snow late this evening with the
potential for some freeing or mixed precipitation toward morning
in central Wisconsin. Freezing/a mix is possible across northern
Wisconsin Friday morning while the rest of the area changes to all
rain as temperatures warm. A change to all rain should occur in
the north during the afternoon.

Highest QPF is forecast to be between 06Z and 12Z over the western
part of the forecast area, and 12Z to 18Z in the east. Snowfall
totals should be mostly in the 1.5" to 2" range across the north,
with 0.5" to 1" farther south and near Lake Michigan. Ice
accumulations in central and north central Wisconsin are expected
to range from 0.01" to 0.04".

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Scattered snow showers and flurries are likely Friday night, and
possibly into Saturday, as a strong mid-level shortwave digs into
the central Great Lakes region and begins to close off.
Trajectories will become favorable for lake-effect snow showers
off Lake Superior to reach north-central Wisconsin on Saturday,
but by then drying and large-scale subsidence will serve as
limiting factors.

Quiet weather is expected Saturday night and Sunday as high
pressure shifts across the area. The return flow on the back side
of the high looks to be strong enough to ensure temperatures are
above freezing before precipitation chances increase ahead of the
next shortwave and frontal system that will approach from the
west. A return to cooler temperatures will follow the passage of
those systems.

Other than some adjustments to PoPs and weather in the first
couple periods of the long-term portion of the forecast, no
significant changes to the initialization grids were necessary.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Cigs will continue to lower overnight as mixed precipitation
moves into the area. A mix of mvfr and ifr cigs and vsbys
expected by Friday morning. Conditions expected to gradually
improve to a higher end MVFR or lower end VFR Friday mid afternoon
in the wake of the surface front. Scattered mvfr cigs due to snow
showers will return over northern Wisconsin with colder air
returning to the region.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CDT Friday for WIZ030-035>037-
045-048.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......TDH




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

 1025 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure extending across the area will move off to the
east this evening. Precipitation will develop on Friday well
ahead of a cold front that will move through Friday night. High
pressure will slowly build in during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure off to our southeast will continue to
drift east this evening. A strong band of WAA out ahead of the
disturbance will push east and arrive by around 12z Friday
morning. Currently this band of light precipitation can be found
out in Illinois. Returns remain extremely light. The main
concern with this will be surface temperatures. Already
temperatures have started to fall below freezing this evening
but lows for tomorrow morning will likely be reached by 2 or
4am. After this time surface high pressure will be far enough
east to allow for weak southerly winds to return to the area. As
this happens a slow warming trend in temperatures will
commence. The other main issue will be how quickly will forecast
soundings saturate. The 17.00z KILN soundings shows plenty of
dry air in the low levels. Dewpoint depressions are also mostly
above 10 degrees across the area. Taking a look at pavement
temperatures currently across the area also shows many upper 30
degree readings thanks to the full sun this afternoon. The old
runs of the ARW and NMM along with the NSSL WRF do show a period
of freezing rain though. The old NSSL run also keeps
temperatures close to 32 degrees into mid- morning.

Given current radar trends, latest HRRR/ RAP runs, and current
pavement temperatures will hold off on any type of advisory for
now and will stick with the SPS. It should be noted that any
slightly cooler surface and pavement temperatures will allow
for slick spots to be possible. Strength of the WAA and
isentropic upglide will also be key. For now motorists should
plan on leaving extra time to reach your destination Friday
morning. By tomorrow afternoon surface temperatures will be
warm enough to support all rain across the forecast area.

Prev Discussion ->
Surface ridge axis extending into the region this afternoon will
move off to the east this evening. Southerly flow will increase
late tonight. High and then mid clouds will thicken during the
latter part of the night. With clear skies, weakening winds and
a dry air mass, temperatures will fall off quickly this evening.
Guidance has trended colder and the forecast follows suit. But
readings will be rising later tonight. Freeze warning was
reissued for counties along and south of the Ohio River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Increasing moisture and lift will spread west to east across the
region Friday morning. This will cause light precipitation to
break out and move across the area through the day. There is
plenty of uncertainty in terms of how fast temperatures rise
with a little less uncertainty in when precipitation starts
reaching the surface. West central into central Ohio may begin
as snow before changing to liquid. Elsewhere, precipitation
should be liquid with the surface temperature determining
whether that is rain or freezing rain. Likely there will be a
period of light freezing rain before changing to rain.

An additional complication is that a road model suggests that
pavement temperatures will be lagging the air temperatures and
not rise above freezing until mid to late morning. So rain could
still cause slick conditions on roads even after air
temperatures are above freezing.

Rain will continue through the afternoon and then end during
the evening. The warmest temperatures will spread in behind the
precipitation and ahead of a cold front that will drop southeast
through the area Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid/upper level trough axis will push east across the Great Lakes
region through the day on Saturday as an embedded short wave drops
down into the upper Ohio Valley. This will lead to a chance of
showers on Saturday with perhaps a bit of an uptick through late
morning and into early afternoon as the low level lapse rates begin
to increase. Expect the best chance for any showers to be across our
northeast, closest to the better upper level forcing. This will also
be accompanied by a shot of low level CAA which will allow for at
least a mix of rain and snow showers, if not predominately snow
showers. Highs on Saturday will generally be in the low to mid 40s
with some upper 40s possible across our far south. Mid level ridging
and a drier airmass will push quickly east across the region through
the day on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 40s north
to the lower 50s across the south.

Another short wave will push across the Great Lakes Monday into
Monday night, bringing the next chance for showers. Some timing
differences remain among the models and depending on the exact
timing of the onset, there could be a brief period of mixed
precipitation if it comes in early enough on Monday morning. In
general though, we should be warm enough to support primarily rain
through the event. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 50s north
to the lower 60s in the south. A drier and slightly cooler airmass
will filter into the region for Tuesday into Wednesday with highs in
the mid 40s to lower 50s. A chance of showers will return for
Thursday as a warm front lifts north into the area. Highs on
Thursday will range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure off to our south and east will continue to
pull east this evening as the next upper level disturbance
approaches from the west. High clouds can already be seen
streaming into Illinois this evening. Given this, VFR
conditions should be expected until about 12z Friday morning.

As 12z approaches though cloud bases will continue to lower
starting across the western TAF sites as a band of strong WAA
moves in. Eventually the lower levels will completely saturate.
As this occurs there does appear to be a window of when freezing
rain will be possible. CVG/ LUK appear to have the smallest
window as rising temperatures will likely keep any frozen
precipitation to a minimum. At the rest of the TAF sites the
latest GFS and NAM forecast soundings all show a window from
around 13 to 17z of frozen precipitation. The NAM is slightly
more aggressive than the GFS with warming the 850 mb layer.
Friday afternoon all precipitation will change over to rain with
ceilings quickly falling from MVFR to IFR by late afternoon.

GFS and NAM forecast soundings then have dry air moving into the
mid-levels which would support a transition to drizzle. Towards
the end of the TAF issuance this trapped moisture will help keep
both ceilings and visibilities restricted. Ceiling restrictions
to LIFR will be possible by the end of the TAF issuance.

OUTLOOK...Wind gusts up to 30kt possible Saturday. MVFR
ceilings may linger Saturday night into Sunday. MVFR ceilings
and visibilities possible again on Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Friday for OHZ077>079-081-088.
KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT Friday for INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Haines




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

 647 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A narrow band of sprinkles has just formed from St Cloud to the
Twin Cities and Faribault and is headed east. Another band will
develop to the west of this initial, weak band which will expand
in intensity and areal coverage late tonight over Wisconsin. Low
level moisture is increasing, but will remain meager for much
meaningful precipitation. It will even take a while to develop
lower level clouds. As this band heads east, it will encounter
drier and cooler air and may be mainly snow until warmer air aloft
moves in later this evening. At that point precip may turn to
rain or freezing rain, depending on the thermal profile. Due to
the light amounts and the possibility of precip becoming plain
rain, decided against an advisory for now but travel problems
could result if it is predominately freezing rain.

The front will swing through late tonight with gusty west winds
developing for Friday. Decent low level lapse rates should allow
for gusts of 30-35 kt by afternoon. Believe models are overdone on
low level moisture, particularly given the mixing, so will
continue with a partly cloudy forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

The longer term concerns remain the warm up for the weekend
followed by the temperature moderation through midweek and
potential of a significant storm system affecting the central and
northern plains by later next week.

Initially we have colder air filtering in behind the departing
cold front into Friday night on gusty northwest winds. This should
provide for somewhat cooler readings into Saturday...close to
normal. Then the next trough moves east across the Dakotas and
into Minnesota later Sunday and Sunday night...providing
increasing southeast/south winds and much warmer air. With most
deterministic models showing H85 temepratures from +8 to +12c
across the CWA Sunday afternoon as the surface front moves in.
This should yield/mix out to at least 50s for much of the
area...especially if the snow cover over the southern CWA is
negligible/gone by then. We may see lower 60s to the southwest.

This system moves through with only minor cooling behind...and a
small chance of showers/light mix Sunday night. Cooler
temperatures are expected into midweek out ahead of the next
significant western CONUS trough which moves ashore around
midweek. This will provide rising heights and overall warming
trend by the end of the week. The deterministic models lift a
closed circulation northeast affecting the region later Wednesday
and Thursday. At present...cyclogenesis is forecast to occur over
western Kansas by early Thursday...eventually lifting northeast
toward the Great Lakes with the upper low. It is too early too say
for certain what the eventual track will be...but models suggest
we will start out warm enough for rain/showers for most of the
event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Initial band of precip materialized over the Twin Cities around
21z is now a healthy band moving across WI, so introduced
prevailing precip groups for RNH/EAU. There is a secondary band
forming over the Twin Cities as main upper forcing moves in based
on IR/WV satellite imagery. This will keep precip going much of
the night for EAU. Short term models are keeping RNH/EAU warm
enough where it looks like a mainly rain scenario for both
locations. NAM/GFS in particular are once again way over done on
low level moisture and their resultant cloud potential, so
continued to stay close to timing of previous TAF, with delayed
arrival timing based on the HRRR. Have high confidence MVFR cigs
are coming to WI, but the HRRR shows these clouds remaining east
of MSP, so it`s not unreasonable that our MN terminals remain VFR
until we go post frontal and clouds currently up in southern
Alb/Sask make a run for central MN in the morning. Frontal timing
looks similar to what the previous TAF had, with deep mixing
resulting in gusty WNW winds by Friday afternoon.

KMSP...Low confidence on if MSP will even see low clouds before
the FROPA, with both the HRRR and RAP keeping pre-frontal MVFR
cigs to the east. We may continue to see some sprinkles for the
first couple of hours of the TAF, but precip tonight, like the
MVFR cigs, looks to be confined to WI. We`ll have to watch how far
south the post frontal MVFR makes it, but the HRRR indicates we
may be seeing them by late Friday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kt.
Sun...Chc MVFR in afternoon. Wind S at 15g25kt.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 730 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 417 PM EDT THU MAR 16 2017

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a vigorous shortwave into
southern Saskatchewan and eastern Montana in the strengthening wrly
flow off the Pacific. At the surface, light winds prevailed over the
cwa as dry high pressure dominated the western Great Lakes.
Southerly winds were increasing across MN ahead of a trough through
the wrn Dakotas. The visible satellite loop and sfc obs indicated
increasing mid/high clouds from MN into nw WI with the waa pattern
ahead of the trough.

Tonight, The models have continued with the slower trend with the
pcpn arrival supported by 290k-295k isentropic lift ahead of the
shrtwv which is reasonable considering the very dry antecedent
airmass. Forecast thermal profiles suggest that there may be a deep
enough layer 1C-2C above freezing over the west for some freezing
rain or sleet to mix with the snow. However, many locations will
also see temps climbing to around freezing after mins this evening
as clouds thicken and the srly winds increase. Overall snow amounts
should remain in the 1 to 3 inch range, consistent with SLR at or
slightly below 10/1.

Friday, the precipitation will spread across the rest of the cwa
during the morning and early afternoon as the shortwave digs into
the upper Great Lakes with mainly snow at the onset. As temps climb
into the mid to upper 30s and mid level drying move in, expect
the precipitation to change to rain/drizzle. Most areas should
only see an inch or two of accumulation given low SLR values below
10/1.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 416 PM EDT THU MAR 16 2017

Upper low will be deepening across western Great Lakes on Fri night
with sfc low tracking across Upper Michigan Fri evening and to near
Detroit by 12z Sat. GFS/GEM/ECMWF indicate strongest shortwave and
associated lift tracking more over southern portions of the western
Great Lakes instead of across Upper Michigan. Therefore even as
initial arc of warm air advection/isentropic ascent precip affects
eastern cwa in the evening, dry slot at h7 crossing Upper Michigan
will result in diminishing trend to precip though may see light lake
effect/lake enhanced snow over northwest cwa with h85 temps falling
to -6c. May also be a weaker shortwave working across late Fri Night
into Sat which could enhance the overall light lake enhanced snow
regime. Overall expect a higher pop but lower qpf/snow setup with
most of the snow over west and northwest cwa where NW winds also
could provide additional upslope lift.

Upper low and sfc lows head to the east coast by Sun morning with
high pressure ridge bringing end to any light snow/drizzle by Sat
evening. Deep low pressure heads out of the Canadian prairies Sun
morning moving to Hudson Bay on Sun night. S-SE winds btwn the low
and departing ridge results in most cloud cover on Sun over east
half. Where skies will be partly sunny, temps over west could reach
well into 40s on Sun but the clouds could keep temps in the mid to
upper 30s. On Sun night, warm front to the south of the strong low
will bring light rain across most of Upper Michigan. Forecast
soundings and expected warm air advection in low-levels led to
slightly raising min temps to have more rain instead of fzra.
Soundings showing max tw aloft over 3c indicate snow chances with
main batch of rain Sun evening into early Mon morning are slim.

Weak cold front moves in later Mon but not a whole lot of moisture
around to justify having much precip. Temps on Mon may surge up well
into the 40s and could even reach 50F over scntrl if there is enough
sunshine into the aftn. Stronger cold front arrives Mon night into
Tue morning. Temps on Tue will tumble into the teens and 20s and may
not rise much over northern cwa on Tue. Continued to have chance
pops for lake effect Tue into Wed. Coverage and intensity of lake
effect will be held down as even even with h85 temps falling down to
-17c to -19c, there will be a lot of dry air, especially after Tue.

Cold temps linger into Wed then warm air advection should increase
later Wed into Thu. Again there will be a lot of dry air around to
start that period, but by late Thu into Thu night should be enough
saturation for light snow to develop into the Upper Great Lakes.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 730 PM EDT THU MAR 16 2017

VFR conditions to start for this forecast package as high pressure
exits to the east. The trough over the northern plains will spread
rain and snow into the western U.P. late tonight with this
precipitation reaching KSAW around 12Z. There remains a possibility
for light freezing rain early on as well. Ceilings are to fall to
IFR levels when the snowfall reaches max intensity in the early
daytime hours with MVFR visibilities. KCMX and KSAW may see some IFR
visibilities for a time under the more intense snow bands. Phase
change transitions back to a mix of rain/snow and then precipitation
is expected to change to a mix of rain and snow and then to all rain
as temps rise through the day.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 417 PM EDT THU MAR 16 2017

As a high pres ridge passes across the Upper Lakes today, expect a
period of winds under 20kt. A low pressure trough will then cross
the Upper Lakes Fri/Fri night. S to se winds should increase up to
25-30kt over the e half of Lake Superior ahead of the trough. Behind
the trough, nw winds to 30kt are expected across much of Lake
Superior for at least a portion of Fri night into Sat.
Winds will then diminish to under 20kt from w to e Sat aftn and Sat
night as a high pres ridge arrives. A cold front will swing across
the Upper Lakes Sun night, bringing another round of stronger winds
for Sun aftn thru Mon, especially on Mon behind the front as winds
should increase to gales up to 40 knots, especially over the eastern
half of Lake Superior.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

 707 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Updated to expire the Red Flag Warning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Currently...

Except for a band of high cloudiness covering parts of the plains,
skies were mostly sunny across the region/ Temperatures were quite
warm with readings in the upper 70s to low 80s across most of the
plains. Breezy conditions were noted over parts of the region, mainly
east and along I-25. marginal red flag conditions were noted in some
areas.

Rest of today and tonight...

As for record highs...COS is 9 degrees away from the record as of 2
pm, so it will likely not occur at COS. Pueblo was 81 and the record
is 85, so it may be close, but considering we have already mixed out
the chances are less than 50%. ALS was 4F from the record and it
will be close.

As for RED FLAG conditions, HRRR is hinting that the winds should
continue to relax, so believe RED FLAG conditions will remain
marginal and spotty across the region until later this afternoon.

A weak cool front will come down the plains tonight. No significant
winds are anticipated with the frontal passage. temps tonight will
be unseasonably warm with readings in the 40s across most if not all
of the plains and 20s and 30s in the mtns/valleys.

Tomorrow...

Somewhat cooler max temps expected, although temps will still be
running ~15F above normal for this time of the year. We will see
more clouds tomorrow, especially over the  higher terrain. It is not
out of the question that a few light showers may occur across the
southern mtns and higher elevations of the Pikes Peak region during
the mid afternoon hours. Max temps will be in the 60s to mostly 70s
across the plains, with 60s in the valleys and 40s and 50s in the
mtns. Light northerly winds in the morning will veer around to light
south-southeasterlies  by afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

...Hot and Dry with Increasing Winds and Fire Danger through the
Weekend...

Friday night-Sunday...Upper level ridging across the state on
Saturday gives way to increasing westerly flow through the day
Sunday, as Eastern Pacific energy moving onshore across the Pac NW
translates across the Great Basin. Warm air aloft under the ridge
will support very mild overnight lows across the area, with
increasing downslope slope flow supporting near or above record
highs both Saturday and Sunday. Current records for March 18th and
19th are 78F and 77F at COS, both set in 1907, 85F and 86F at PUB,
both set in 1907 and 69F and 72F at ALS, set in 2007 and 1907,
respectively.

Will see breezy south to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph across the
area Saturday afternoon, with gusty westerly winds of 20 to 40 mph
expected areawide on Sunday. This will lead to areas of critical
fire weather conditions on Saturday, with more widespread and
dangerous fire weather conditions expected Sunday afternoon and
evening. With as dry as it has been, care will need to be taken
across the area this weekend to prevent any wildfire starts.

Sunday night-Tuesday night...Moderate westerly flow across the
region Monday becomes more southwest through the day Tuesday, as the
passing system across the Northern Rockies Sunday night continues to
move east with upper level ridging building back across the Great
Basin and Rockies into midweek, ahead of a stronger system digging
across the West Coast. Passing system sends a weak backdoor cold
front across the Eastern Plains owning to cooler temperatures across
the area for Monday and Tuesday, though will still be above seasonal
levels. Could see a few showers along and west of the ContDvd Monday
and Tuesday with the westerly flow aloft, with the cooler and
slightly more moist upslope flow across the plains likely limiting
critical fire weather conditions for early next week.

Wednesday-Thursday...Latest longer range models continue to indicate
a pattern change starting later next week, as the West Coast system
continues to dig into the Great Basin through Wednesday and then
ejects out across the Central Rockies on Thursday. Models continue
to show differences on strength and location of this system with the
12Z operational GFS digging the system further south across the area
and closes it off across the Southeast Plains on Thursday, where as
the 12Z ECMWF is further north and east with the system. The further
south solution supports better chances of precipitation across south
central and southeast Colorado, however it is Way too early to say
where this system will go.  Time will tell as always, however. at
least the models are showing signs of a break from the hot and dry
pattern we have been in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

VFR next 24h at KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Light diurnal winds.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH