Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/16/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
854 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
Main areas of concern for this update are temperatures and
precipitation chances. H85 warm air advection will continue across
western and central North Dakota tonight. This in combination
with the clouds should help keep temperatures from falling off too
much overnight. Will show some small temperature fluctuations in
the hourly temperature forecast, but overall do not expect
readings to change too much in most locations.
Decided to keep the slight chance pop in the southern James River
Valley. The latest HRRR suggests there could be light
precipitation in the southeast part of the state, while the RAP
and 16.00Z NAM look drier. The 00z Bismarck sounding had quite a
bit of dry air above H9 to overcome, so it appears this could be
more of a virga/sprinkle type of situation.
UPDATE Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
Main adjustment for this update was to increase hourly
temperatures in the southwest part of the state late this
afternoon. Some spots in the southwest have climbed into the 50s
and lower 60s which was warmer than our hourly temperature
forecast.
Will continue to monitor local radars to see if any light
precipitation tries to develop this evening in the southern James
River Valley as per the GFS and NAMNEST. The high resolution
short term models have generally been dry in that region and focus
more on the next round coming from eastern Montana. Will hold onto
the slight chance small pop for now in the southern James River
Valley which reflects the lower confidence in that area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
A warm front will move push through late this evening, ramping up
warm air advection significantly. Some models (GFS, SREF,
NAMNEST)indicate some light precipitation will impact the southern
James Valley along with this warm push. If this pans out some
light freezing rain will be possible around midnight with surface
temperatures still below freezing. Confidence isn`t high enough
at this time to warrant anything more than a slight chance.
Breezy westerly winds will develop tomorrow as a cold front swings
through late morning west and early afternoon east. Even though we
will likely be cloudy for the majority of the day, those westerly
winds will mix down much warmer air aloft leading to temperatures
in the 40s and 50s. A surface low will pass just north of North
Dakota Thursday/Friday with the cold front trailing down through
North Dakota. Most of the global models have some light rain
following the front Thursday. At this time it appears northern
North Dakota has the best chance of seeing some light rain due to
the location of surface low and best forcing.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
The long term will be a roller coaster with a series of
waves moving through the region. Overall this will maintain a
mild weather pattern with several passages of pacific cold and
warm fronts.
Friday will be a windy day with 20 to 30 mph northwesterly winds
as strong cold air advection and pressure rises move into the
region.
The western upper level ridge builds back up again into
the Dakotas Saturday, followed by another strong clipper moving
east across southern Canada Sunday/Monday. There may be a quick
shot of rain or snow Sunday/Sunday night. The models depict a
storm system moving into the west coast Monday night and deepening
over the west coast Tuesday. This system could bring us at least
a couple of days worth of rain or snow beginning Tuesday night,
though models differ greatly on phase and placement of the
system.
Temperatures will be variable, with highs ranging from the 30s to
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
The short term models still suggest the potential for mvfr to ifr
cigs, primarily towards KJMS for tonight. MVFR cigs could also
develop Thursday afternoon in northern parts of the state.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
828 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017
Subsidence associated with a weak upper level PV anomaly passing
to the north along with deeply mixed boundary layer will allow
westerly winds to increase to near 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph by
late Thursday even into the SW Nebraska Panhandle. Latest short
range models are consistent in bringing in critical RH values
around 15 percent in this same area with the HRRR time-lagged
ensembles giving a 90 percent probability of critical fire weather
conditions. One caveat is the potential for more cloud cover
associated with the shortwave which would reduce the amount of
insolation and prevent RH from reaching critical thresholds. In
light of all this, decided to go with a Fire Weather Watch for
zone 313 to allow the later shifts to monitor trends in the cloud
cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017
High clouds continuing to stream across much of the CWA but
clearing from the west with the upper ridge moving slowly east
into the Rocky mtn area. The ridge will move across the area while
weakening overnight leaving a generally zonal flow over the CWA
Thursday through Friday. Another warm day across the CWA Thursday
with plenty of sun and dry downslope flow. Max temps will be in
the 70s east of the mtns...nearing 80 across the southern Neb
Panhandle.
A cool front will sink south across the plains Thursday night as
a shortwave moves across the northern Rockys into the northern
plains. Dry air will preclude pcpn for the most part though a few
light showers not out of the question Thursday evening over
northern parts of the CWA closer to the shortwave. Friday will be
dry and cooler especially over the plains where max temps should
be about 15 degrees cooler from Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017
A warm and dry weekend is ahead with upper-level ridging remaining
in place and H7 temperatures in the +6C to +8C range. Larger scale
subsidence will yield little or no chance for precipitation. Highs
will likely be in the 70s along/east of I25, and possibly even low
80s in the southern NE Panhandle or Platte River Valley. Mid-level
flow remains westerly through early next week, but a cold front is
expected to push temperatures back into the mid/upper 50s for much
of the area. May see a period of showers in the mountains and over
our northern zones with the fropa, but overall the weather pattern
will remain quiet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 551 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period. Main
forecast concern will be a period of stronger wind gusts on
Thursday as a shortwave passes to the north. Could see westerly
gusts to 35 kt for a few hours beginning in the late morning over
the western TAF sites and during the afternoon for the Nebraska
terminals.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 809 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017
A period of enhanced fire weather conditions are possible late
Thursday morning into the afternoon for parts of the SW Nebraska
Panhandle. Winds will be increasing ahead of a shortwave passing
to the north with afternoon RH values between 15 and 20 percent.
Decided it would be prudent to issue a Fire Weather Watch where
fuels are driest and where dewpoints are progged to be the lowest
Thursday afternoon in zone 313.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for NEZ313.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEL
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...DEL
FIRE WEATHER...DEL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
With newest NAM, RAP, and HRRR runs am less impressed with precip
chances in the south for the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Started
trending back on POPs a bit, but will wait for the GFS and another
high res cycle before pulling them completely. South winds and
clouds have keep temps in the upper 20s and low 30s, dropping a
bit into the 20s later tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
The primary forecast challenge for the short term period will be
freezing rain potential for late tonight into the day tomorrow,
before an A.M. wintry mix...or freezing rain...turns over to all
rain as temperatures climb into the upper 30s by noontime and into
the low 40s across the south by mid afternoon.
Models continue to indicate a band of precip beginning to develop
across eastern SD into s cntrl ND late in the evening (GFS/GEM)
to early morning period (NAM)...however the high res models
continue to be much drier or void of precip in the overnight
period, although latest RAP has began to indicate precip across
SE NoDak tomorrow morning (early runs were showing precip
developing earlier in the overnight period). With uncertainty in
timing and northward extent, prefer blended solution with best
chance for development in the 09Z to 15Z timeframe across SE ND.
Ice accumulation models do indicate a couple hundredths of an
inch across Ransom/Sargent/Richland counties...which agrees with
latest WWD guidance. Therefore this will need to be monitored
closely for potential impacts during the Thu morning
commute...mainly south of the I 94 corridor.
Overnight lows across west will be impacted by some cloud cover
and 10 to 15 mph winds overnight, with the eastern zones remaining
mostly clear but breezier than last night. Temps will be much
warmer across the east, generally in the low 20s, as opposed to
near zero in areas last night. Although QPFs decrease east of the
valley, a wintry mix could cause some areas of slick spots later
into the day. ForecastBuilder is showing freezing rain or sleet
through noontime east of the valley, and then a gradual change
over to rain...which is supported by latest BUFKIT soundings and
GFS plume models. A low pressure system moving across southern
Canada will bring increased chances of precipitation across the
far north late in the period into the early long term period (see
discussion below).
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
The main concerns in the extended forecast are 1) chances for light
rain, and perhaps freezing rain/mix in parts of NW MN, Thursday
night into Friday and 2) temperature variations due to the active
zonal pattern aloft.
Thursday night into Friday, a surface low/upper level wave passes by
just north of the international border, bringing precipitation
chances to an area along/north of US Hwy 2 and generally along/east
of the Red River. With relatively warmer air brought in on Thursday
by southerly flow, mainly light rain is expected Thursday evening.
Chances for light freezing rain/drizzle/wintry mix will creep in
overnight and into early Friday morning, especially for areas
northeast of a Hallock-Bemidji line, as temps cool aloft behind the
cold front. However precip amounts will be quite light, generally a
tenth of an inch or less, so very little, if any, ice accumulation
is expected in those areas and impacts should be minor. As this
system clears out, cooler northwest flow will bring temps to near or
slightly above normal values with breezy conditions for the rest of
Friday/Friday night.
With the next upper ridge and its associated surface low developing
in the Northwest and high pressure rushing through the Northern
Plains Saturday, temperatures will warm considerably from Saturday
to Sunday. Sunday and Monday will be the warmer days for the next
week. On Sunday, expect high temps in the 40s to 50s. Maintained
some slight chances for rain in the northern half of the forecast
area Sunday due to uncertainty in a mid level dry layer. On Monday,
highs will still likely be in the upper 30s to 40s. Early next week
looks relatively dry with cooler air and high pressure pushing in
for Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
Some MVFR stratus has started to move into the southern forecast
area this evening. This has started to creep into the KFAR area,
although do not think it will last long. Have a TEMPO group for
MVFR conditions but think all sites will be back to VFR by mid
evening for the rest of the night. Increasing mid and high clouds
will move in from the west tonight and tomorrow morning, with
more MVFR stratus coming in towards the end of the period. Have
most sites down below 1500 with a few below 1000 by late tomorrow
afternoon. Some light precipitation will be possible, but models
are inconsistent with the first round that will lift across
western MN during the morning, slightly better with precip across
the north late in the period. Have a VCSH at KDVL for now and can
add more precip for later issuances as things become more clear.
South to southeast winds will stay around 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1035 PM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 PM EDT WED MAR 15 2017
GOES 16 IR and low level water vapor indicating the area of CU
continues to erode in the far east this evening. Most of the
guidance wants to hang on to clouds a bit longer, but at this
point keep at best a few to scattered through the night in the
grids. That said the biggest issue tonight will be how low do we
in fact go low temperature wise. Earlier this afternoon GOES 16
VIS/NIR bands did show areas that received snow showers/squalls
yesterday into yesterday evening. This is in fact playing a
important role in temperatures this evening where a swath from
Bath County southeast to Letcher County are cooling much quicker
under clear skies and maximized radiational cooling.
Interestingly enough the HRRR has a decent handle on the location
of this and therefore leaned in that direction. The other issue
will be the fact that the surface high will not truly crest
across the region. Therefore think this lowest temperatures will
occur in the SW toward to Lake Cumberland region where best
chances of decoupling will occur. The MAV/MET have this thought
and therefore leaned in that direction for the far eastern valley
spots. Otherwise more minor changes were made to align grids with
latest obs and trends.
UPDATE Issued at 741 PM EDT WED MAR 15 2017
GOES 16 IR showing CU continuing to erode across eastern KY, as
an area of high pressure builds east into Western TN. This
surface high will also aid in weakening the pressure gradient and
mixing will also decrease resulting in decreasing winds through
the night. This will lead to quite the chill across the region,
with NAEFS suggesting upper levels temperatures approaching 4 STD
below normal for this time of year. Overall the forecast grids are
in good shape with more minor adjustments needed this update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 333 PM EDT WED MAR 15 2017
Satellite shows an extensive cumulus/stratocumulus field across
eastern KY, and radar shows some possible flurries mainly in the
northern and eastern part of the area. However, have not seen any
flurries or snow showers on web cams today, and radar trends have
been diminishing. Will carry a few more hours of flurries in parts
of the north and east before ending early this evening. High
pressure will build into the TN Valley tonight. This combined with
the loss of daytime heating will result in a decrease in clouds
after sunset. With mostly clear skies and lighter winds tonight
expect a ridge valley temperature difference to develop. This was
not depicted in the initialized grids but it was in the previous
forecast so have lowered temperatures in the colder valley areas
for tonight which is more in line with the previous forecast.
As high pressure slides east on Thursday temperatures will slowly
warm, but remain below normal. As warm air advection kicks in
Thursday night and the valleys decouple should see another ridge
valley temperature split develop. The pattern Thursday night is
more conducive to a significant ridge and valley difference than
tonight`s. It is very possible that the ridge valley temperature
difference depicted for Thursday night in the forecast grids is
not great enough, so would not be surprised to see this modified
in the coming forecasts. Thursday night will see temperatures once
again well below freezing, so will need to issue another freezing
warning.
May see some light precipitation develop by early Friday morning
in advance of an approaching warm front. Temperatures will be
rising late Thursday night and early Friday morning, but it is
possible the precipitation may start early enough that a brief
period of wintry precipitation could occur before changing to rain
on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED MAR 15 2017
The models are in good agreement aloft through the extended
portion of the forecast. They all depict a brief relaxation of the
pattern over Kentucky on Friday ahead of the next trough rolling
toward the Great Lakes. This will bring another round of falling
heights and mid level energy to the Ohio Valley for late Friday
into Saturday. In fact, the core of this trough will actually cut
right through eastern Kentucky later that day and into the night
- most impactful from the ECMWF than the GFS. This trough then
moves off to the east by Sunday morning with rising heights to
follow for the state. We can then look forward to slight ridging
through the rest of the weekend and into Monday morning. This does
weaken with time, though, so that by Monday night northwest flow
will bring renewed batches of energy to our region south of a
large and dominant low over the Hudson Bay. Falling heights will
be the rule through mid week as the Canadian low shifts its
influence south to the Great Lakes with prolonged northwest flow
continuing along with some energy breaking off and making it south
into Kentucky. The northern low then eases off to the east on
Wednesday. Given the model agreement will favor a general blend
with higher than normal confidence in the broad overall pattern.
Sensible weather will feature departing cold air on Friday morning
with chilly valleys mixing out towards dawn. This may yet have sub
freezing readings around as the next wave of WAA pcpn moves in
just after sunup. Accordingly there is some concern for a mixture
of light p-types at the onset. For now, though, will keep it clean
as just a rain/snow mix, though some sleet or a brief period of
freezing rain in the valleys cannot be ruled out. Temperatures
will warm through the day, Friday, getting up back into the 50s as
a prolonged period of showers sets up lasting through a much
milder Friday night. The pcpn chances will come to an end by
midday Saturday as a slow moving cold front presses southeast of
the area bringing in another bout of cold, but not frigid, air.
This chilly air will moderate later Sunday into Monday before
another system from the Southern Plains approaches and slides into
Kentucky bringing another shot at rains through Tuesday. Drier
and again cooler air follows for Wednesday.
Made some minor adjustments to lows for a couple of the nights
based on terrain differences, but for the most part went along
with the blended starting point for temps through the extended.
As for PoPs - tightened them up with the arrival early Friday
morning and then upon departure Saturday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED MAR 15 2017
The upcoming period will remain VFR with an area of SCT to BKN CU
at around 5 KFT to start the period. Based on SAT trends this area
of CU will continue to erode from west to east and already seeing
clearing skies at SME/LOZ. High pressure across Western TN will
build east into Middle TN tonight and keep the mostly clear skies
going through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds could remain
gusty in the east for a hour, but the gradient will relax and
some will decouple thanks to high pressure build east.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until noon EDT Thursday for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
Freeze Warning from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM EDT Friday for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
659 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
Early afternoon visible satellite imagery together with RAP13
surface analysis showed high pressure and clear skies across most of
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Despite the light winds, temperatures
warmed above freezing at most locations along and north of I-94,
with cooler temperatures near I-90 where there was more snow cover.
Over the next 24 hours the ridge of high pressure will shift
eastward and warm air advection will move from the Dakotas into
western MN and lead to isentropic ascent, mid level clouds, and some
light precipitation on Thursday. The narrow band of precip will only
be a few hundredths, but could see some mixed precipitation in the
morning across western Minnesota based on the thermal profiles.
Temperatures should warm close to 40 by Thursday afternoon as the
precipitation changes over to all rain.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
The longer term concerns are timing of a couple of fast moving
fronts across the region and overall temperature trend.
Initial cold front sweeps across the region Thursday night into
Friday morning. We should see stratus lift into the cwa thursday
evening per trend of 0.5Km condensation pressure deficits on most
deterministic runs indicate saturation developing. SREF probs for
<3 and <1sm are quite high >60% ahead of this feature. Models are
not overall positive on QPF for the front...with any real chance
of measurable over the far eastern cwa Thursday night. Models
indicate could be a light mix...with surface temperatures forecast
close to freezing and an elevated warm layer associated.
Somewhat cooler air follows the front with a warming trend
expected into the weekend. Forecast highs will be determined by
the amount of snow cover that remains over the area. Much of it
should be gone by later Sunday. The next front is forecast to
move through Sunday night into Monday but models are trending dry
at the moment. The 12z ECMWF which remains more progressive and
weaker with the wave...as much of the energy rides north of the
cwa.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
Narrow band of MVFR cigs that has been slowly moving across
western MN during the afternoon is the first problem. 18z NAM and
RAP soundings show this band making it to at least MSP, so brought
it in at STC/MSP, left it out of RNH/EAU for now, but would get to
these fields after 6z, so we`ll watch this cloud banks trend
before bringing into WI. There is another batch of mainly mid-
level clouds to about I-29 and this will work across the area
tonight through Thursday morning. Biggest limiter for precip with
these clouds is deep and dry sub-cloud layer, but looks like
enough moistening happens Thu afternoon to start generating some
precip in eastern MN/western WI, so introduced some vcsh to
STC/MSP/RNH. Toward the end of the period, the NAM/GFS show the
low levels moistening enough ahead of a front moving into western
MN to allow low stratus to form. In all likelihood, the models are
overdoing this moisture, so have a bit more conservative approach
to the end of the TAF periods then the MAV/LAV and especially MET
have.
KMSP...MVFR clouds to the west have showed no signs in slowing
down, so timed them in at about 5z. They have been hanging out at
locations to the west for about 3 hours, so they will be out
before the morning push starts. Confidence low on precip reaching
the ground, but the threat is enough to allow for the introduction
of a VCSH. Low confidence on CIGS in the final 6 hours. GFS/NAM
would say we go IFR/low MVFR, but suspect that is over done.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...MVFR/-SHRA possible early, then VFR. Wind NW at 10g25kt.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW at 10kt.
Sun...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind S at 15g25kt.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1103 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
MVFR/IFR ceilings will develop at all sites early Thursday
morning. VFR conditions will return to all sites by late morning
or early afternoon. South winds of 6 to 12 knots overnight, will
increase to 12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts, by late morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 613 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Stratus currently across the Interstate 10 corridor will spread
north this evening, resulting in MVFR/IFR conditions first at the
southern 3 sites, then spreading to KABI and KSJT by late evening
or early Thursday morning. VFR conditions will return to all sites
by late morning or early Thursday afternoon. Expect south winds
of 6 to 12 knots overnight, increasing to 12 to 18 knots, with
higher gusts, by late morning or early afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)
Low level moisture continues to stream northward across West Central
Texas this afternoon, with low clouds persisting from I-10 northward
into the Concho Valley and Heartland. Clouds finally starting to lift
and break up, allowing a little more sunshine and for temperatures
to start climbing towards forecasted values. Cloud cover will return
tonight, with the HRRR and the TTU WRF showing a little bit of
drizzle or very light showers across the Northwest Hill Country.
Will continue the mention of drizzle in the forecast for down there.
Otherwise, cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees warmer
over what we saw this morning, with lows in the mid and upper 50s.
Similar day upcoming on THursday, with morning low clouds giving way
to some afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will eventually be pretty
close to what we are seeing today, with highs in the mid and upper
70s. Although it may take until late afternoon to get there.
LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Warm and above normal temperatures are expected to prevail
through the middle of next week for our area, with occasional
shortwave ridging aloft. Winds will be mostly from the south
during the next several days. A weak cold front could sag south
into our far northern counties Friday night before stalling, then
lifting back north as a warm front on Saturday. The possibility of
showers and thunderstorms with this front looks to be just north
and northeast of our area.
Early next week, a cold front is progged to move south into the
northern and western parts of our area on Tuesday before stalling.
The GFS indicates a possibility of showers and thunderstorms with
this front, and is faster with the timing than the ECMWF. With
low certainty, keeping PoPs below 15 percent and will monitor
model trends and consistency. Temperatures should be several
degrees cooler behind this front across the northern part of our
area. A deep upper trough is progged to move east across the
western and southwestern CONUS on Wednesday, and across the
Rockies Wednesday night. With an unstable airmass progged over our
area with the approach of this system and associated cold front,
the chance for thunderstorms could be increased by Wednesday
night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 57 78 59 85 / 5 5 5 5
San Angelo 58 77 59 85 / 10 10 0 5
Junction 59 77 60 81 / 10 10 5 5
Brownwood 55 75 58 83 / 10 10 5 10
Sweetwater 59 77 59 85 / 5 5 0 0
Ozona 58 77 58 83 / 10 10 5 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Daniels