Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/14/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
845 PM MDT Mon Mar 13 2017 .DISCUSSION...The 00Z run of the NAM model is a little dryer than the previous run tomorrow for areas north of Baker City and McCall. In addition, the latest runs of the HRRR keeps the area near Baker City and McCall dry during the day as well. So...we will trim pops back a bit in those areas. Otherwise the forecast remains on track for warm and dry weather tomorrow. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Skies will be partly cloudy with with increasing and thickening cirrus clouds later in the day. && .AVIATION...VFR with scattered-broken high level clouds, mainly northeast of KBNO-KBOI-KJER. Surface winds: Variable 10 kts or less. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: West 10 to 20 kts. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...Upper level high pressure continues to bring warmer air into the region. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the year so far, with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s in the Snake Plain. Temperatures will be around 15 degrees above normal, although still below record highs (which is 75F for Boise on Tuesday). A chance of rain showers is possible Tuesday morning as a system passes by to the north, mainly over the higher terrain north of a line from Baker to Stanley. Slightly cooler temperatures expected on Wednesday as clouds increase and rain showers move into the region from the west. Snow levels expected to be around 7500-8000ft with the onset of the precipitation. A slight chance of thunderstorms may need to be added to the forecast on Wednesday afternoon across southeast Oregon with weak instability across the eastern Oregon mountains. LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Saturday...A shortwave trough will move through the region Wednesday night, brining a round of showers to most folks, with the heaviest precip in the mountains as usual. A cold front will send highs lower, but we will still be around 5 degrees above normal for Thursday`s high. Showers will move out Thu afternoon, and Thu night will be dry and cool. Friday and Friday night will be relatively dry and mild, with a chance of showers mainly in the north. Southwest flow will continue on Saturday, and temps will warm up further. High are forecast from 65 to 70 in the lower elevations, with 50s in the mountains. Saturday night through Monday...Model agreement and run to run consistency are unusually good for the last couple of days of the long term period, so confidence in timing is above average. A shortwave trough embedded in southwest flow aloft will cross eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho Saturday night and Sunday, with most of its energy staying north of our area. We can expect scattered to numerous showers over our northern mountains, with isolated to scattered showers further south. Snow levels will be between 6000 and 7000 feet. On Monday a weak upper level ridge will build over the Intermountain Region, ahead of the next Pacific weather system. Temperatures will be around 5 degrees above normal. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JB AVIATION.....EP PREV SHORT TERM...KA PREV LONG TERM....SP/JT
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
815 PM MDT Mon Mar 13 2017 .UPDATE... Upper ridge building in from the west was creating mid level warm advection, which was generating quite a bit of clouds across the area. Temperatures have fallen quickly this evening despite the cloud cover and needed to make adjustments downward on low temperatures as some current readings were already exceeding forecast values. Warm advection will spread to the lower levels and temperatures should level off shortly. Raised PoPs into central zones this evening with some weak echos showing up on KBLX radar. One last thing, added patchy fog to parts of the southeast. HRRR was indicting the possibility and MET guidance was also showing that as well late tonight. TWH && .SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed... Most of the activity is out of the area, although some light snowfall is lingering in Carter and Fallon counties. The jet that has been producing the snow will move out into the Dakotas tonight. Behind it, another strong jet will move across the area late tonight and into tomorrow. This will bring another chance snow overnight. Going into tomorrow temperatures will warmup into the 50s and 60s across southern Montana. This will see snow change over to rain. This will result any any light accumulations of snow melting quickly. However as temperatures cool overnight there will be a chance for freezing rain across mainly Carter and Fallon counties tomorrow night. Models continue to show that there is some chance that with some evaporative cooling this could be short lived. The models have been showing this signal fairly consistently so have continued some areas in the east. Going into Wednesday things will be dry, and temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal. Wednesday night the ridge will begin to break down into more of a zonal flow. Reimer .LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon... Message remains consistent for the extended forecast period. Temperatures will be generally above normal throughout the period...with a progressive weather pattern bringing periodic precip chances across the region. A Pacific trough will cross the region through the day Thursday/Thursday night. This trough should bring a few showers to the region...but forcing is precipitation amounts should be light. Ridging builds in for Thursday night through Saturday, bringing dry weather. Ridge begins to break down on Sunday as southwest flow aloft brings in disturbances and Pacific moisture over the region, resulting in scattered showers Sunday and Monday. These disturbances look weak and fast-moving, so precipitation amounts again should be light. High temperatures on Thursday should be about 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday`s readings as low-level flow turns northwesterly and brings in cooler air. Friday`s high temps should generally be around Thursday`s readings. Some downsloping develops on Saturday, which should bring high temperatures to the 60s across the lower elevations. A cold front looks to drop southward on Sunday, bringing a cooling trend to the temperatures for later Sunday into Monday. RMS/Reimer && .AVIATION... VFR should prevail tonight over much of south central MT and north central WY. Low clouds and fog should develop over southeastern MT including KMLS after 06Z. Scattered showers with MVFR are possible near KBIL and KLVM by early morning. Walsh/RMS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 032/051 037/068 043/059 033/056 038/066 044/062 035/050 25/W 10/E 14/W 20/B 11/B 12/W 22/W LVM 042/054 038/065 041/055 030/055 037/065 043/059 034/051 45/W 20/N 24/W 21/B 11/N 32/W 22/W HDN 030/047 032/067 038/059 030/055 032/065 039/062 032/051 24/W 20/B 15/W 40/B 01/B 12/W 22/W MLS 021/037 033/056 038/056 031/053 032/062 038/056 032/047 13/W 30/B 13/W 20/U 01/B 12/W 22/W 4BQ 026/046 032/067 037/060 030/054 031/068 039/062 033/049 14/W 30/B 05/W 40/B 01/B 12/W 22/W BHK 015/034 029/053 034/055 028/049 029/060 036/056 029/044 22/J 31/B 14/W 20/U 00/B 11/B 21/B SHR 032/051 035/068 040/061 031/055 033/069 043/063 035/052 22/W 10/B 05/W 51/B 00/B 02/W 22/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1131 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A major winter storm will bring heavy snow to central Pennsylvania tonight through most of Tuesday. The eastern half or more of the commonwealth will see over 12 inches of snow. After a period of lake effect snow during mid-week and brief high pressure at the end of the week, an unsettled pattern will return. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... * Major to even crippling storm possible for the eastern half of the state. Very little change made to the onset timing of the snow, period of heaviest snowfall, and forecast snowfall amounts. Region radar mosaic loop shows the expansive shield of light snow to our west, combining with the quickly northward advancing light to moderate snow shield moving into our SE zones attm. Phasing of the potent up trough diving SE from the Upper Midwest and Western Glakes region, and the lead shortwave lifting NE up and over the stationary coastal front will cause rapid phasing of the features aloft and intensification overnight of the current elongated sfc lows from the Carolina coast to the NE GOMEX. EC and NAM much wetter than the GFS. The high QPF seems on- order in the east where the greatest 8H easterly wind anomalies advect copious moisture up and over the sharpening and steep 850-700 mb front. A gradually pivoting belt of enhanced 850-700mb FGEN forcing and associated band of enhanced adiabatic cooling from the strong uvvel is see late tonight through the late morning hours near the I-83, 1-81 corridor from York, Harrisburg and Lebanon, northeast to Pottsville and Hazleton where the NCAR ensemble excessive snowfall probability hourly loop indicates a high probability of snowfall rates easily in the 1.5-2 inch per hour range. There is increasing concern that we may have to tighten up the east/west snowfall gradient between the Susq Valley and Central Mtns, based on the NCAR data and after looking at the latest few runs of the HRRR (which shows LEQ QPF of 2-3 inches in a nearly stationary 30-40NM wide, intense and slowly pivoting FGEN snowband close to the I-83/I-81 corridor between 06Z-12Z Tuesday). Snowfall rates as high as 3-4 inches a few hours, along with some flashes of lightning/thunder are possible should this snowband come to fruition as some higher res models depict. Previous late afternoon discussion... Satellite images showing a rapidly advancing shield of low clouds moving northward from Central VA. Deepest moisture is still a few hours away, with all models now very well-agreed on timing. Sfc low will deepen rapidly tonight, but even more- so on Tuesday as it passes our latitude. Snow rates will become 1-2"/hour in the heaviest mesoscale bands. Thundersnow is also possible in those bands. Where and when these bands set up and how/when they pivot is the major factor of where the totals will be highest. These details are not easily seen even at this close range. HRRR and RAP will be important tools in this situation. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The challenge with this forecast lies in where to make the really deep (>12") snow taper off. Placement of highest QPF is generally E of State College by all models, but SLRs will be greater/fluffier in the W. The sfc air is dry and winds generally 10 mph sustained. The wind will certainly be stronger closer to the coast and in eastern PA. However, no guidance gives any of Central PA sustained winds of blizzard criteria (frequent >=35mph gusts). Blizzard conditions are very rare this far inland. The biggest threat lies in the timing of the heaviest of the snow. 1" and 2"/hr rates may be common between 3 and 10 AM. This will create an extreme amount of trouble for travel. Deformation snowfall will persist into Tuesday afternoon with additional light accumulations in most areas. Far eastern areas will continue to significantly add to their totals while remaining on the western periphery of the heaviest snowfall associated with the offshore coastal low. The western counties will have the wind go northwesterly and additional snow will come first from perhaps a lingering deformation band and then some lake effect. The winds Tuesday night will be stronger than during the rest of the storm. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A reinforcing surge of cold air will follow behind the big storm with snow showers and a breezy NW wind Wed-Thu. Temperatures well below average Wed behind the system with below average temps continuing through the week. Another wave drops across the region Fri into Sat with light snow (rain/snow south) likely. Additional scattered snow showers will impact the NW mtns through the weekend as breezy and chilly flow returns. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An intensifying storm moving up the east coast will spread snow across the entire region overnight. The heaviest snow, with visibilities between 1/2SM to 1/4SM, will fall over the the eastern half of the state overnight through late Tuesday morning. Across the western half of the state, expect lighter snow, but still IFR conditions. Improving conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening across the eastern half of the state, as the storm pulls away. However, lake-enhanced upslope snow should continue to produce IFR conditions at BFD and JST through Tuesday evening. Winds will pick up on Tuesday PM, as the storm pulls away from the region. Bufkit soundings indicate there will be frequent gusts of 20-25kts with occasional gusts of around 30kts, especially at JST/AOO/LNS. Outlook... Wed...Mainly VFR, with residual MVFR conditions in snow showers, especially in the west and north. Windy. Thu...Mainly VFR, with residual MVFR conditions in snow showers in the west and north. Winds slowly diminishing. Fri...Mainly VFR. Sat...Chance of rain and snow showers. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ006-011- 012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ004-005- 010-017-024-033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Lambert NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Lambert SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Lambert LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
951 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 949 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Radar, surface observations, and trends from the HRRR confirm that the snow band will continue for another few hours, and I have upped pops to categorical, and increased amounts to a half inch from the Quad Cities eastward. This minor event will be over around 2 AM. UPDATE Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Visibilities under 2 miles in many locations, and a few under 1 mile show that there are more than flurries headed toward our eastern 1/2 of the CWA this evening, and have put in snow showers into the forecast. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Analysis at 2 PM CDT shows slow clearing with cold Canadian high pressure moving into the region as storm has moved to the southeast. Local tools all support clearing next 12-18 hours with main issue the speed of clearing. Amount of subsidence per local nowcast tools all suggest most models are likely too slow on this clearing. Upstream energy shows after Wednesday a return to zonal flow and near normal temperatures will limited moisture into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Short term forecast confidence assessment...poor or below average. Timing of clearing could be off by 6 hours or more with main risk is clearing is too slow by late evening into the overnight hours most areas. If this occurs then mins may be too mild by 3 or more degrees many/most locations. Areas that will have at least 2 inches of new snow could be too mild by 5 or more degrees. This is the main issue for evening shift to monitor and update as needed. Tonight...Clearing to slowly occur with northerly winds of 5 to 15 MPH. All or almost all the area should be mostly clear by sunrise with main risk clearing is too slow. Forecast mins of upper single digits to around 20F may be off by 3 plus degrees. Local techniques suggest with light winds and clear skies for several hours overnight in 2 plus inch snow locations suggest lows may be 5 degrees too mild. Tuesday...mostly sunny with some cold air strato-cumulus mid day to mid afternoon hours suggested. North to northeast winds of 5 to 15 MPH. Highs should be with mid March sunshine still reaching the upper 20s north and northeast to well into the lower 30s south sections. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Quiet and cold conditions will be seen across the area Tuesday night as high pressure settles over the Midwest. The near calm winds and relatively fresh snow has the potential of producing near record lows. Refer to the climate section for specific numbers. Quiet and dry conditions will continue Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will average below normal. On Thursday moisture will flow back into the area. Thermal profiles show relatively cold, dry air initially over the area as the increased moisture aloft and forcing move into the area. Thus precipitation should initially start out as snow and slowly change over to all rain during the afternoon. Any new snow accumulation Thursday morning will melt as the snow changes over to all rain. Thursday night on... A weak storm system will move through the area Thursday night/Friday morning. How much moisture will be available for the system is somewhat in question. However, the rain will mix with and change back over to all snow Thursday night before changing back to all rain on Friday. The model consensus has chance pops Thursday night and chance to likely pops on Friday. Friday night through Sunday the model consensus has dry conditions for the area as high pressure moves through the Midwest. Temperatures are expected to average above normal. Sunday night/Monday the solutions of the global models diverge considerably on where the next system will track. As a result the model consensus has mainly dry conditions Sunday night with slight chance to chance pops on Monday. Precipitation type will depend upon the track of the storm but a rain/snow mix at night that changes to rain during the day looks reasonable. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 MVFR CIGs around 2000 ft will continue this evening along with flurry and snow shower activity, especially in Illinois. By midnight, clearing should begin to spread over the region, with VFR weather through the early morning and day on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 Record Lows for March 15... Moline.........3 in 1890 Cedar Rapids...3 in 1979 Dubuque........2 in 1979 Burlington.....9 in 1951 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Ervin SYNOPSIS...Nichols SHORT TERM...Nichols LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Ervin CLIMATE...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
901 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 ...Widespread Rainfall This Evening... ...Much Cooler Tomorrow through Thu... .UPDATE...Stratiform rain on the northern side of a Gulf Low was overspreading the forecast area this evening. Deeper convection was well south of the forecast area nearing the SW FL coast with the HRRR now only supporting a low isolated chance of embedded tstorms across Marion...Putnam and Flagler counties as well as the adjacent coastal waters over the new couple of hours on the northern side of the surface low as it tracks across north- central Florida. After this wave of stratiform pushes offshore of the coast through midnight...a fading pre-frontal area of scattered showers will approach from the NW associated with the actual surface cold front. There will be an ongoing chance of light showers after midnight due to rainfall potential with this line...but also expected a gradual erosion of showers through daybreak as mid/upper level dry slot now across the western FL panhandle wraps northward across the local area as the upper trough begins to lift out to the NE. Min temps tonight will range in the 40s across SE GA to 60s across our southern FL zones under cloudy skies with some gradual clearing from the west after midnight as the dry slot punches across the area. && .AVIATION...Prevailing LIFR ceilings are expected through tonight with recent guidance suggesting the potential for VLIFR 06Z-12Z at JAX and SSI. Widespread stratiform rainfall will blanket the terminals through midnight with rainfall gradually tapering off from the west by 06Z with only a low chance of early morning showers Tue morning through about 10 am ahead of the surface cold front. Breezy WNW flow will increase before sunrise to near 10-15 kts ahead of the surface cold front then trailing the front later in the morning wind gusts up to 20 kts are expected by mid- morning. Drier air will begin to mix down and erode low clouds trailing the morning frontal passage with prevailing VFR conditions expected by midday. && .MARINE...Small craft advisory conditions expected later tonight trailing surface frontal passage. Rip Currents: A low risk of rip currents expected on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 44 60 34 55 / 80 0 0 0 SSI 48 61 39 54 / 90 0 0 0 JAX 51 62 36 57 / 90 0 0 0 SGJ 52 64 39 57 / 90 0 0 0 GNV 50 66 38 59 / 100 0 0 0 OCF 52 67 39 61 / 100 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM. && $$ Enyedi/Struble/Corless
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1017 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 PM EDT MON MAR 13 2017 Further adjustments have been made to hourly temperatures based on recent trends. Snow has been mixing with rain at times per AWOS and spotter observations from Pulaski county northeast to Rowan County if precipitation has not changed to snow entirely. Also, snow has likely fallen at Black Mtn. with a little over a tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent since the temperature has fallen to 32. The temperature adjustments led a tenth or two more of snow accumulation in some locations, although attempts were made to fine to snow ratio to better highlight the higher ridges and lower elevation valleys. At present, we have about 1 to 1.5 inches forecast for the top of Pine Mtn above 2500 feet and around 2.5 inches for the top of Black Mountain at about 4000 feet. Lower elevation locations should pick up generally a dusting to a half of an inch in some locations. Even with the quicker cool down, accumulations should mainly be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces. The SPS will be freshened up a bit based on these changes. UPDATE Issued at 805 PM EDT MON MAR 13 2017 Recent sfc analysis indicates a surface low over the WV coalfields east of the CWA east of KSJS and KPBX and south of KCRW and west of KBKW. The cold front trails south southwest into East TN. A The temperature on the top of Black Mountain in Harlan County has wet bulbed down to the 33 degrees per KY Mesonet site data and snow has likely already started to fall there. Temperatures on NW flow cold advection have dropped into the mid to upper 30s in the eastern Bluegrass Counties just east of Lexington while some of the Big Sandy valley locations are in the lower 50s. LEX recently reported -SN and 37. The combination of earlier cold air advection and wetbulbing has led to temperatures cooling off a bit faster than the previous forecast. Therefore, temperatures have been trended a couple of degrees colder especially over the next 6 to 9 hours with a lean toward recent HRRR runs. Further fine tuning of the temperature curve will be needed over the next few hours. In addition, with preceding low level dry air ahead of the band of precipitation, qpf has been lowered across northern and eastern sections to better align with recent observations. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT MON MAR 13 2017 ...Some Snow Tonight & Tuesday...Hard Freeze Tuesday Night... 19z sfc analysis shows low pressure centered near STL as high pressure remains strong along the East Coast. This, and down sloping in the eastern parts of the CWA, is helping to slow the arrival of any pcpn from the west ahead of that low. Even the clouds are having a tough time pushing into eastern Kentucky resulting in more insolation sending temperatures toward 60 degrees through much of the area. The warmer temperatures and still very dry air at the sfc are making for another very low RH afternoon for our eastern counties. Based on satellite trends, the sky should cloud up over the next couple of hours improving the low RH as temperatures fall. Dewpoints vary from west to east as well ranging from the upper 20s over the Cumberland Valley to the 10 to 15 degree range in the east. Winds have also picked up in the east with the deep mixing resulting in sustained values from 5 to 10 mph and gusts up to 20 mph from the southwest. The models are in better agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the twin troughs moving in tandem through the breadth of the country. The southern one is running along the northeast Gulf Coast this afternoon as the northern one plows into the Great Lakes. While the southern one whips up the Southeast Coast, the main portion to the north settle south toward the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This brings sharply lower heights to Kentucky along with a stream of mid level energy flowing over the state. Heights fall further through Tuesday night as the mid levels bottom out just to the northeast with huge impacts along the Mid Atlantic to New England. The models coming together will make for higher confidence with this forecast and the blends a decent starting point. Sensible weather will feature the area clouding up by sunset with rain moving in early along with falling temperatures. Snow will start to mix in during the early morning hours tonight in the highest elevations from northwest to southeast. Extra warmth this afternoon will make for warmer road temperatures lingering well into the changeover late tonight and into Tuesday morning. This should prevent any of the snow from sticking to the roads, though falling temperatures in the upper 20s northwest may result in some slick spots on bridges and overpasses there. Will highlight this in a forthcoming SPS along with a discussion of light accumulations anticipated through Tuesday afternoon for our ridges and higher elevations. Expect scattered to numerous snow showers through the area tomorrow with most places hard pressed to see any accumulations outside of ridges and places at elevations above 2500 feet. The highest peaks could pick up as much as two inches of snow before all is said and done, but the vast majority of the area will see little more than a dusting and mainly on grassy/elevated sfcs. Temperatures will not go too far on Tuesday setting up a very cold night into Wednesday morning where mid teens will be possible for lows - missing record status mainly due to the post `Storm of the Century` lows of 1993. Will issue a freeze warning for this night starting at 8 pm Tuesday and lasting through noon Thursday as readings will not make it far above freezing on Wednesday. Again used the CONSShort and the ShortBlend as the starting point for the grids throughout the short term portion of the forecast. Made only minor changes to the lows tonight and Tuesday night given the higher moisture tonight and CAA into Wednesday morning. Worked with the PoP grids to slow the higher values arrival this evening and to fine tune them later tonight into Tuesday for some upslope flow enhancement. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 308 PM EDT MON MAR 13 2017 High pressure will settle over the area from Wednesday through Thursday evening. The abnormally cold conditions will continue with temperatures on Wednesday struggling to reach freezing. Then lows Wednesday night may fall into the lower to mid teens areawide, setting up the coldest night of the week. Given this long period of sub-freezing temperatures, will keep the freeze warning going through Thursday morning. A shortwave trough will then cross the Ohio river valley Friday and Friday night with our next good chance for rain. Temperatures should warm enough ahead of this system to yield all rain. While it does cool off in the wake of this system on Saturday, not nearly as good of a push of cold air this time, so may see a few wrap around rain showers into Saturday afternoon. We dry out again by Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure again crosses the area. Rain chances will start to ramp back up on Monday as our next system starts to approach the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT MON MAR 13 2017 A band of rain is moving across the area on the backside of surface low moving across the Appalachians and in advance of a mid level wave. CIGS will continue to fall into the MVFR range at the TAF sites over the first 3 to 5 hours of the period with KSJS expected to reach MVFR last. Conditions will continue to deteriorate down to IFR between 03Z and 09Z, with snow mixing in with the rain starting by 3Z at KSYM in the northwest and the highest elevation near VA first then mixing everywhere by 7Z. CIGS should improve from northwest to southeast between 10Z and 16Z as drier air moves in at lower levels and lingering snow showers diminish to . Winds should average out of the west and northwest at 5 to 10 KT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 8 PM Tuesday to noon EDT Thursday for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
850 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 .UPDATE... 850 PM CDT No big changes planned to going forecast at this time. Lake effect snow has been blossoming this evening, largely consisting of multi-banded structure into NE IL and SE WI as the previously semi dominant single band over SE Wisconsin weakened. The array of hi-res model guidance is in good agreement in depicting strengthening low level convergence through the night with already favorable LES parameters actually growing even more favorable with time. Eventually, would anticipate this multi- banded LES structure to begin to transition back to a more dominant and intense single band, though how long that process takes to occur is the big question. Given recent observational trends, increasingly leaning toward a later development of the single banded structure, possibly not until closer to sunrise. The more multi-band structure should result in a more widespread snowfall, but likely less intense snowfall rates. Snowfall intensity/rates will increase significantly when single band eventually develops, with snowfall rates exceeding 2"/hour likely at that time. The later the transition to single band occurs, the likely farther east placement of the heaviest totals. Starting to look like the highest totals tonight into Tuesday could be across eastern and southern Cook County, though Lake County IL is not quite out of the woods yet. Have decided to add Lake Co IN into the warning as such strongly favorable parameters will likely keep the intense snow rates going through at least midday tomorrow with a good chance of at least 6 inches of snow in northwestern Lake Co IN and double digit totals not out of the question by late tomorrow afternoon. LES should begin to weaken somewhat tomorrow afternoon, but continue into tomorrow evening. Parameters tomorrow night again look quite favorable for heavy lake effect snow. While inversion heights will be somewhat lower and we`ll lose the added synoptic ascent, instability and low level convergence look stronger than tonight. We are far enough out that there is an urgency to issue any headlines for Porter Co, but this is something the midnight shift will likely have to contend with. Will leave the expiration for Lake Co the same at 06z tomorrow night, but that may be a bit soon and could need refining tomorrow. Will get updated WSW shortly, updated grids and forecasts will follow, though perhaps not quite as quickly! Izzi && .SHORT TERM... 311 PM CDT Through Tuesday Night... Heavy lake effect snow continues to be the primary forecast concern and forecast challenge this afternoon. Overall, the same thinking holds true, with the potential for localized areas of very heavy snow tonight into Tuesday across the warned area. The only change to the headlines was to add a lake effect snow advisory to Will county and Lake county Illinois, where lake effect snow showers are likely to lead to some accumulations. Lake effect snow has been ongoing across southeastern Wisconsin for much of the day. In spite of the fact that these snow showers have yet to focus into a single band, reports under these snow showers have been for periods of moderate to occasionally heavy snow, with visibilities of 1/2 to 1/4 mile. Therefore, the confidence in lake effect snow impacting northeastern Illinois tonight into Tuesday is high. Overall, we expect the focus for the lake effect to shift southward into northeastern Illinois by mid evening as a lake induced boundary layer convergence zone sets up over southern Lake Michigan and extends onshore over far northeast Illinois. This convergence zone should help focus the lake effect snow showers into a more organized band by mid to late this evening. HiRes forecast guidance including the latest HRRR is in favor of this thinking. Overall, we expect this lake effect band of snow to be quite intense at time as thermodyamics over the lake remain favorable for good lake effect through into Tuesday. Therefore, snow rates of 2"+ per hour are likely under the band of snow. The main challenge with lake effect snow events such as this is forecasting snowfall accumulations over a broader area. Because the heaviest snow showers are likely to be in a band only about around 15 miles wide, there is likely to be considerable variability in snowfall amounts over short distances. Some of this large variably is likely to occur over the Chicago area. Areas falling under the heaviest band of snow, which at the present time looks to favor portions of Cook...eastern Dupage and at least southern Lake county Illinois, a good 5 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts appear likely. The main band of heavy lake effect snow appears that it may gradually shift southward or waver across Cook and Dupage counties through the night. This would suggest that the lake effect showers will begin to impact portions of Will and Lake county Indiana, especially later tonight into Tuesday. Additional heavy bands of snow may then shift back over far northeastern Illinois by Tuesday morning. For this reason, it appears that there could be a prolonged period or two of heavy lake effect snow over portions of the warned area, and this could result in isolated higher amounts than currently forecast. Lake effect showers will be possible through Tuesday for northeastern Illinois, before the main focus for lake effect begins to shift over northwestern Indiana. Additional headlines for lake effect may be needed for more counties in Indiana, but since most of these areas will not get in on most of the lake effect snow until either later Tuesday or Tuesday night, we have opted to hold off on this for now. Its even possible that the current advisory in effect for Lake county Indiana may need to be upgraded to a warning if it becomes apparent that heavier snow will fall there on Tuesday. KJB && .LONG TERM... 328 PM CDT Wednesday through Monday... Following the lake effect snow, which should wind down over over northwestern Indiana on Wednesday, cold surface high pressure will build over the area. As a result, daytime temperatures on Wednesday are likely to remain in the 20s. However, with the cold surface high moving overhead Wednesday night, this may set the stage for cold temperatures over the area into Thursday morning. However, after this cold morning, temperatures should begin to moderate later in the week as the surface high shifts east of the area. Another fast moving storm system looks to take aim on the area later in the week (Friday into Friday night). This system could produce another period of mainly rain over the area, though it could onset as a mix of rain and snow Thursday night. Otherwise, temperatures should become more seasonal later in the period. KJB && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Tricky forecast regarding lake effect snow potential tonight with high confidence in lake effect snow in the region, but low confidence on the extent and location of the more intense snow. Presently, tracking one more pronounced WSW-ENE oriented band over SE WI and anticipate this band to continue moving southward and likely to impact the NE IL terminals later this evening. Big question is how progressive this band will be and whether or not it will stall over any of the terminals. For now, took a somewhat more optimistic approach in the TAF with a short duration of heavier snow. Its possible the heavier lake effect snow band could evolve and take shape just east of ORD/MDW overnight and while confidence isn`t high, have opted to go that route for now in the TAFs. Some hi-res guidance suggests the lake effect band could wiggle west for a time Tuesday morning and covered this potential in a prob30. Overall, a low confidence TAF and additional amendments will likely be required as smaller scale lake effect features begin to reveal themselves. Winds should favor NE direction initially, though to the west of more prominent band development, land breeze should result in a backing of winds to a more northwesterly direction. Izzi && .MARINE... 253 PM CDT A period of strong is expected through Tuesday, as strong high pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, and deep low pressure lifts north along the Atlantic coast. Winds of 30 kts are expected later tonight and Tuesday, with some gale force gusts possible. Winds will slowly ease Tuesday night while backing to the northwest, and will further diminish Wednesday night into early Thursday as high pressure ridging moves east across the area. Winds will then increase from the south late Thursday night into Friday, as the ridge moves east and an area of low pressure develops northwest of the Lake. This low will deepen and track east across the region Friday and Saturday, with gusty south winds becoming westerly Saturday and then northerly Sunday. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Lake Effect Snow Warning...ILZ006-ILZ013-ILZ014 until 4 PM Tuesday. Lake Effect Snow Advisory...ILZ022 until 4 PM Tuesday. IN...Lake Effect Snow Advisory...INZ001...4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 9 AM Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory...IN nearshore waters until 9 PM Wednesday. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
752 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 .UPDATE... Latest model data suggest a push back of the expected showers and thunderstorm activity to late tonight, thus delay the higher POPs closer to midnight. The HRRR shows a define line of thunderstorms around midnight with another round of showers in the morning hours with the main frontal boundary moving across the peninsula. SPC continues to keep a marginal risk of damaging winds for Southwest Florida Gulf Coast where the threat is maximized due to slightly higher moisture and instability compared to the rest of South Florida. Once the front moves through the area, drier air makes its way into South Florida. No additional changes were done to the forecast. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017/ Showers and Thunderstorms Tonight, some may become strong... DISCUSSION... Weather pattern changes tonight into Tuesday as a low pressure system moves across the area. If you thought it was time to put the sweaters away, don`t do so yet, as this system will bring cooler air into South Florida this week. Near term: As shortwave trough digs southeast towards the lower MS Valley this evening into tonight, deepening surface low pressure over northern Gulf coast moves east into the Florida peninsula. Ahead of this system, wind fields strengthen over South Florida tonight, with deep layered shear of 50 knots by late evening hours. This will enhance showers and thunderstorms into the overnight hours with some possibly strong. As this low approaches the area from the eastern Gulf coast, isolated showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop and increment becoming more scattered in the evening and tonight over South FL. Main focus of showers/thunderstorms will come in the form of a squall line or band of embedded thunderstorms moving west/east across the peninsula. Upper jet stream of 140+ knots over North Florida along with strengthening wind fields down through the low levels will provide sufficient dynamics and forcing for potentially strong to even severe thunderstorms. Storm Prediction Center continues to keep a marginal risk of damaging winds for Southwest Florida Gulf Coast where the threat is maximized due to slightly higher moisture and instability compared to the rest of South Florida. However, the potential for a few strong storms with gusts over 40 mph are certainly a distinct possibility elsewhere over South Florida as the showers and storms spread east during the overnight hours. The shower activity will continue through early Tuesday as the associated cold front moves across the peninsula. Abundant dry air behind the front with cooler temperatures will filter into the region giving way to clear skies by Tuesday afternoon and pleasant daytime temperatures. Expect a west to northwest wind flow with high`s remaining near 80s degrees for the southern counties and . upper 70s out west and interior. As high pressure continues to settled into the area, the cooler temperatures will begin to be felt into Tuesday night, with temperatures dropping into the upper 40s to near 50s. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to reach the 70s despite the mid-March sunshine, and probably stay in the 60s along the Gulf coast. Through the Upcoming Weekend: The cool, dry pattern will prevail as continental high pressure dips deep into the Southeast U.S. and remains in control of the weather pattern for the rest of the week into next weekend. This will deliver the first extended period of below normal temperatures to South Florida since late January. Coldest night will be Wednesday Night/Thursday morning with lows around low 40 degrees west of Lake Okeechobee to the mid 40s rest of interior and Gulf coast, to the lower 50s SE Florida metro area. Some moderation in temperatures is expected for Friday and the upcoming weekend, but still mainly below normal with low humidity levels. MARINE... SE to S winds continue this afternoon, highest over the Atlantic waters, will increase out of the SW tonight as the low pressure area shifts into the Atlantic and deepens. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the Atlantic waters and Gulf waters continuing through Tuesday night. Expect periods of winds in the 20-25 knots range and seas in excess of 7 feet. Conditions gradually subside through Friday as the high pressure area moves over North Florida and winds begin to subside. AVIATION... Latest model data suggest a little push back of the expected showers and possible thunderstorms to later tonight, thus VCTS starts now around 22Z and continues through 06z for all terminals. Breezy periods are possible through the evening hours with overall speeds in the 12-15 kt range with higher gusts. MVFR is possible at time with the heaviest showers or with passing thunderstorms tonight, especially over the Atlantic terminals. Once a frontal passage moves across the area, VFR and drier conditions will begin establishing on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 67 81 52 69 / 70 20 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 71 82 54 71 / 50 20 0 0 Miami 72 81 56 72 / 50 20 0 0 Naples 69 73 51 68 / 60 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656- 657-676. && UPDATE...67/MT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
723 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Shower activity now located over only the Plateau portion of middle TN. Upstream shortwave axis is located over western TN at this time. This feature will reach our Plateau around midnight. Thus, the deeper moisture will quickly move east. However, weak impulses upstream may carry some pva across our eastern half of the cwa after midnight. Furthermore, freezing levels will be dropping and should be in the 700 ft to 1000 ft agl range after midnight across northern areas, and then southern areas after 09z. Hrrr does show some patchy areas of precipitation late, so there lies the light snow potential. Lower level vv`s are generally negative so precip amounts, if any, will be very light. Current fcst appears to be on track with a low chance of rain and snow after midnight. Will likely rerun zone formatter just to clean up wording as we move toward the 9pm or 10pm hour. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Rainfall will gradually end at CSV around 03Z, then a brief period of MVFR VIS and CIGS with possible IFR CIGS is expected to develop at all three TAF sites. Any VIS or CIG reduction should begin lift after 08Z as a tightening pressure gradient causes northwest winds to intensify, with peak wind gusts near 20kts possible after 15Z. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 7 PM Tuesday to 10 AM CDT Wednesday FOR Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb- Dickson-Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson- Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry- Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner- Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ DISCUSSION......21 AVIATION........05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1044 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture should increase ahead of a developing coastal low pressure system this evening. This complex winter storm will impact much of the region through tonight into Tuesday. Colder air with gusty northwest winds should follow later this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1020 PM EDT Monday... No changes planned to the headlines, though confidence is falling on snow amounts, especially in the valleys. Latest mesoanalysis shows 1007 mb low southeast of Cape Fear NC, with a 1012 low near Bristol VA. The models have been overdoing the warm nose a bit over the NC mountains and up the Blue Ridge as temperatures are below freezing in the 900-850 mb level, as seen in places like Bent Mountain VA, Silverstone and Boone, NC. Still warmer air aloft is occurring west of Bluefield as Richlands south to Chilhowie are running in the mid to upper 30s. Temperatures elsewhere were generally in the lower 30s. The latest RAP and HRRR showing the band of mainly rain, mixed with sleet from the Triad of NC northward to Buckingham VA, with next band of precip moving into SE WV to far SW VA as of 1015pm. This is the band of precip we will have to rely on to give us our accumulating snow. Models continue to show good lift and frontogenetical forcing sliding to WV/VA highlands after 06z tonight. However, this band will have to stay ahead of the dry slot that is now moving toward SW North Carolina per WV loop. Snow to liquid ratios will stay pretty much at 5 to 10:1 through most of the overnight, then drop after 12z but by then the synoptic portion of the system will be lifting out replaced by upslope snow showers. Made some adjustments to the snow totals, where the higher ridges will still see a few inches, but looking less in the Roanoke Valley east Lynchburg. Some of the models even are showing some pockets of freezing rain though given ground temperatures, should only see a light glaze on metal objects. This mainly will occur just along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge from Patrick County northeast toward Buckingham. Still looks like enough snow/sleet issues overnight to cause travel headaches and greatest totals will be north of a line from Hinton WV to Blacksburg to Lexington to Amherst, where 3 to 6 inches is likely. This is just for tonight, with more expected in the upslope areas of SE WV to NW NC Tuesday. Visit our winter weather page for snow graphics at Previous early evening discussion... A mixture of snow/sleet and rain ongoing from NC into VA mainly east of the WV/VA border, with mainly rain in the piedmont. Models are showing warm nose intruding this evening as low over the low off the SC coast starts to lift north- northeast, along with another warm nose over the southwest with front moving in from far SW VA. This will lead to mixture of ptypes with predominately staying snow over the Alleghanys, with mixture of rain/snow/sleet elsewhere. The better lift and forcing arrives around midnight and expect dynamical cooling to allow for more snow in the west, with models showing a band of snow passing from Srn WV into the New River and Southern Shenandoah valleys after midnight. Will still be a battle between rain/sleet/snow along and east of the Blue Ridge south of a Roanoke to Bedford line, so not expecting much accumulation through early overnight for places like Rocky Mount to Lynchburg, but more toward 4am. Current headlines still seem in good shape, so no changes planned. Previous discussion from early afternoon... An approaching clipper system with an associated upper level trough over the Ohio River Valley will merge with a developing coastal low pressure system along the North Carolina coast tonight. At this moment, radar only shows precipitation entering Southside Virginia and the North Carolina Piedmont. With temperatures currently in the mid 30s to the mid 40s for most locations, the boundary layer will not be able to allow any frozen precipitation to stick. Most locations may see rain mixing with sleet during the evening, but appreciable accumulations will not materialize until later tonight. Based on the latest snowfall amounts in this update, we will be adding Tazewell and Smyth counties to the Winter Weather Advisory. No other changes to the headlines are needed at this time. As better isentropic lift arrives overhead, precipitation rates should increase tonight enough to allow atmospheric cooling aloft. This pattern supports a mix of sleet and snow for along and west of the Blue Ridge with some mixing of sleet and rain to the east. The coastal low pressure system should undergo significant cyclogenesis overnight as it heads northeastward. Eventually, most locations should see a mix of snow and sleet toward Tuesday morning with temperatures near the freezing mark in the Piedmont and lower into the 20s elsewhere. Although the precipitation should gradually wane during the morning, upslope snow showers will persist along southeast West Virginia through the day. Northwest winds will become gusty by the afternoon, and temperatures will struggle to reach the 40s in the Piedmont. Some parts of southeast West Virginia may see temperatures gradually fall during the day due to the strong cold air advection and snow cover. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... Northwest flow will prevail in the wake of the strong cold front. This will yield upslope snow showers across the preferred locations across portions of southeast West Virginia, south into the Northern Mountains of North Carolina. Cold air advection will be significant with the surge of air behind the front, with maximum pressure rises occurring during the early morning hours of Wednesday. The area of our region near the crest of the Blue Ridge from roughly Floyd, VA, southwest into the Northern Mountains of North Carolina may be candidates for a Wind Advisory during this time period. Also, the combination of the strong gusty winds and decreasing temperatures may yield wind chill values across the higher elevations in the Wind Chill Advisory levels. Will continue to highlight both of these scenarios within the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Scattered snow showers across the western parts of the area will continue on Wednesday, but gradually decrease in coverage as the day progresses. Wednesday night into Thursday, anticipate a gradual decrease in wind speed, with isolated snow showers becoming confined to western Greenbrier County, WV. Outside of the area of upslope snow showers, the vast majority of the region will have little if no cloud cover Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average ten to fifteen degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Upper trof moves offshore Thursday night with 500MB ridging on Friday. An upper low develops over the Great Lakes on Saturday then moves off the New England coast on Sunday. At the surface, the axis of high pressure crosses the Mid Atlantic states on Thursday night. A cold front will push across the area on Friday night. The high that follows Friday night`s system will arrive in the area on Monday morning. The low level jet backs to the west southwest with 850 MB wind speeds of 45 to 55 knots Friday night. Ahead of this system, temperatures warm back above freezing. Then cold air advection Friday night at Saturday low 850MB temperatures back below zero on Saturday and continue to lower through Sunday morning. Persistent northwest winds until Monday morning. May not erode all the 1ow level moisture and upslope showers until that time. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 715 PM EDT Monday... Expect deteriorating flying conditions this evening into overnight with most if not all taf sites sinking to LIFR or lower with mixture of rain/snow/sleet across ROA east to LYH/DAN with more wintry wx in the BCB/BLF/LWB corridor. All sites except DAN should see all snow toward daybreak. The main system lifts out Tuesday morning then northwest flow kicks in, which should keep BLF/LWB MVFR or worse through midday then some VFR after 18z. Further east looking at improvements to VFR between 13-17z. Winds will be gusty from the northwest. Extended Aviation Discussion... Gusty northwest winds along with upslope snow showers should persist well after the winter storm heads toward the New England coast. Periods of MVFR/IFR should linger at times over BLF/LWB into Wednesday. Meanwhile, confidence is higher for VFR at the other TAF sites by Wednesday afternoon. Eventually, all sites should reach VFR on Thursday with northwest winds slowly dissipating. High pressure builds overhead on Thursday night. A weak low pressure system should arrive from the west by Friday and Saturday. Although precipitation appears mainly liquid, periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings should accompany this system. && .CLIMATE... Record mins and record low maxes are below for March 14th and March 15th: Tuesday 03/14/2017 Site MinT Year LoMax Year KBLF 8 1993 18 1993 KDAN 15 1960 34 1993 KLYH 17 1968 28 1993 KROA 16 1993 23 1993 KRNK 8 1998 32 1960 Wednesday 03/15/2017 Site MinT Year LoMax Year KBLF 6 1993 24 1988 KDAN 12 1993 34 1993 KLYH 7 1993 34 1937 KROA 9 1993 34 1988 KRNK 4 1993 22 1993 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ009>014- 016>018-022-023-033-034-045>047. Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ019-020-024- 035. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ007- 015. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ002. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ001- 018. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for WVZ044. Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for WVZ507. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ042- 043. Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW/WP NEAR TERM...PW/WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...PW/WP CLIMATE...JM