Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/08/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1032 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1023 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 Not much new to report at this hour. Incredible surface pressure gradient between 965 mb blizzard across northwest Ontario and 1026 mb high pressure over central Plains remains. Luckily winds have largely decoupled across most spots. Winds will ramp up once again after daybreak as we get into better mixing. Current wind advisory looks fine, though a few isolated gusts to high wind warning criteria (58 mph) appear possible, especially near the Lake Michigan shoreline. As far as tonight goes, still breezy or actually brisk now with slow cold advection continuing. Very steep lapse rates overnight moving in from the west may spark a few rain or snow showers. APX 08/00z sounding showed very dry air to overcome at mid/low levels with a precipitable water of only 0.15 of an inch. Even so, the RAP along with other hires model guidance even prints out a few hundredths of an inch qpf which may be hard to do. Current 30 pops look good for now and will monitor to see what develops. && .NEAR TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 308 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 ...Very gusty winds bring in a progressively colder airmass... High Impact Weather Potential: Very gusty winds through Wednesday could result in additional tree damage and power outages. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Very gusty southwest winds found across the Great Lakes, a product of a very tight pressure gradient between still deepening low pressure over western Ontario (nearing 970mbs) and broader high pressure centered over the Southern Plains. Cold front and attendant shower threat now well removed to our east, with overhead dry slot actually bringing quite a bit of sunshine to much of northern lower Michigan. Cold air advection now fully estabilished, with much of the area falling through the 40s. Next surge of even more intense cold air advection rotating southeast across the northern plains, with sub -30c h5 temperatures helping drive an increasingly agitated, but elevated, cu field back across South Dakota. This surge of cold anomalies will race east, entering our area early this evening. This sets the stage for a much colder and very windy Wednesday, when another round of wind headlines will be needed. Primary forecast concerns: High impact wind concerns through the Wednesday. Addressing rain and snow shower potential tonight and lake effect snow concerns Wednesday. Details: First order of business tonight remains the winds. Widespread wind gusts in excess of 40 mph through the remainder of this afternoon, strongest across eastern upper Michigan. Winds are expected to subside some tonight, but gusty winds will continue. As mentioned, corridor of very cold H5 temperatures slides overhead quickly this evening, helping drive H7-H5 lapse rates to above 8c. Not a ton of moisture for sure, but nearly all guidance goes upscale with that upstream cu field, kicking off band of showers in the processes, and drives such through our area this evening. Given satellite trends, hard to totally discount this idea. Will introduce this potential, and with cooling low level thermal profiles, will also introduce a rain/snow mix with time. Definitely not looking like anything significant. Deep mixing depth via continued cold air advection helps tap into another robust low level jet Wednesday, bringing another round of very gusty west winds. Most intense portion of low level jet passes by just to our south. Still, bufkit soundings show good mixing up through 50 knot jet, bringing a good portion of this momentum down to the surface. Could easily see widespread wind gusts in excess of 40 mph, with more isolated gusts of 45 mph to 50 mph. This makes for a complicated headline scenario across northern lower (earlier issued wind advisory for eastern upper already goes through Wednesday). Per collaboration with surrounding offices, will go ahead and expire current wind advisory for northwest lower upon forecast release this afternoon, issuing an area wide wind advisory during the day Wednesday. Secondary concern Wednesday centers around development of lake effect snow showers. Most persistent activity expected in the snow belts of eastern upper where deeper moisture and simple longer upstream fetch reside. Could see an inch or two north of M-28 by evening. Airmass is a much drier one south of the bridge, with strong and elongated inverted-v signature noted on forecast soundings. Simple breadth of caa will kick off some lake clouds and a few flurries/very light snow showers, with only a dusting of snow expected. && .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 308 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Winter will make a return appearance to northern Michigan for the end of the week, at least with regard to temperatures. Several reinforcing shots of cold air associated with weak shortwave/fropa`s Wednesday night through Friday. Extreme amounts of overlake instability developing by Thursday into Friday, with delta T`s near 30 DegC. This would normally evoke a strong lake effect response. But in this case, not so much. The main limiting factor throughout this time frame is moisture. With PWAT`s around 0.25 inches and only brief bouts of slightly deeper moisture, robust lake effect will be difficult to achieve. The exception to this will be north of M-28 in eastern upper Michigan, where slightly deeper moisture will reside and extend through the DGZ, resulting in more persistent snow shower activity and likely at least minor snow accumulations. Over northern lower, not much. Moisture just not deep enough and not extending through the DGZ. Some of the coldest air of the year plunges into the northern lakes for Thursday night and Friday, with H8 temperatures of -22 to -24 degC. Most areas only in the teens for high temperatures on Friday, with some areas possibly remaining in the single digits over eastern upper. Quite a change from the temperatures we have experienced recently. Primary Forecast Concerns...Nothing significant. Will have to watch the lake effect activity to see if we can generate more accumulation than currently anticipated over parts of eastern upper. Hard to see this becoming anything significant but several inches of snow possible up toward Whitefish Bay along with breezy conditions, so some areas of blowing snow a possibility. Temperatures are the other thing to watch, as low temperatures below zero likely in some areas toward the end of the week - which might be some of the coldest temperatures of the winter in some areas. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 Colder air will continue to filter into the forecast area as the Great Lakes remains on the eastern periphery of a strong high pressure centered near southern Alberta. Light lake effect snows will be possible over eastern upper through Sunday as sufficient moisture lingers along with the cold 850mb temperatures and northwesterly wind regime. The next chance for widespread snow will be Sunday night through Monday night as a developing low pressure system over the central Great Plains tracks through the southern Great Lakes. At this time this system appears to have the potential to accumulate 2-4 inches of snow. An area of high pressure will then move over the forecast area providing a brief period of precipitation-free weather through Tuesday afternoon before models hint at another system moving through the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will remain in the mid 20s to low 30s throughout the forecast period, while lows will be cold, in the single digits above zero to low teens. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 628 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 ...Very gusty winds, especially Wednesday... Winds are not nearly as gusty as they were earlier today, though they will still be a little gusty tonight. The lower wind speeds will lead to low level wind shear at all taf sites through early Wednesday. Surface winds will ramp back up again Wednesday. There could be a few passing rain or snow showers later tonight but otherwise dry air should win out with no cig/vsby related issues expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 Gale producing wind gusts expected across all nearshore waters through Wednesday. Strongest core of southwest winds expected through this afternoon, with another surge of very gusty west winds expected on Wednesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WIND ADVISORY from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ016>036-041- 042. WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ008-015. LH...GALE WARNING until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349. LM...GALE WARNING until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AJS NEAR TERM...MSB SHORT TERM...JRK LONG TERM...TJL AVIATION...AJS MARINE...MSB
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
859 PM MST Tue Mar 7 2017 .UPDATE... Winds have decreased across most of the area and this handled well in going forecast. Temperatures have dropped into the 20s to around 30 degrees with limited cloud cover. Clouds were increasing over the west and this should help to slow down the descent. That being said, did drop forecast lows a couple of degrees, more in line with MAV guidance, with low dewpoints hover over southern Montana and northern Wyoming. Current PoPs look in good shape. Warm advection pattern producing the clouds over the west and this, along with the tail of a jet, should produce areas of light snow over parts of the western and central zones. Emphasis seems to be over the northwest zones and latest HRRR runs support that. Will leave PoPs alone as the projection of snow chances increasing as the night wears looks looks good. TWH && .SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu... Blustery day as strong west winds rocked the region. Gusts 45 to 50 mph were common in many locations. We do expect the winds to quickly back off after sunset this evening from west to east as the stronger 700 mb wind speeds exit the area and low level lapse rates decrease. We also have some popcorn like convection showing up on radar this afternoon. Low levels are quite dry (single digit dewpoint at Billings), so most of this is virga. This should diminish after sunset as well. For tonight, a weak shallow surge of cold air into the CWA which sets up some overrunning will combine with a Pacific impulse moving over the region. The focus of lift then centers around our northwest zones from Harlowton to Roundup. This area may pick up an inch or two of snowfall overnight. We could even see some light brief precipitation as far south as Billings by morning, but probably not measurable this far south. The main forecast problem for this shift though is the significant discrepancy between the ECMWF and GFS concerning the placement of QPF for Wednesday night through Friday. This is largely being determined by how far the Canadian air mass to the north slides south, and the depth of the cold air as well. The ECMWF keeps the main pocket of precipitation over the east central section of the state such as Lewistown. The GFS and NAM are suggesting a deep portion of this cold air slipping down at least as far south as Yellowstone County. While the ECMWF keeps the deepest colder air further north through most of this event. While we believe the sharply colder air may be dense enough to slip south well into our CWA with little help, we are concerned about the strong westerly flow in the mid levels limiting its southern intrusion. We will bank on the deepest cold air (and thus best overrunning) to stay a bit further north than what the GFS/NAM suggest at this time. We have trended our snowfall totals and QPF somewhat further north than the GFS guidance which limits snowfall in the Beartooth foothills and place the heaviest from Billings northward and northwest. At any rate, confidence in how this turns out is low, and we may need to deal with this systems evolution on the go or in the eleventh hour. That said, we are coming up with totals over six inches from Billings northward. This seems reasonable based on overrunning and associated jet dynamics involved. We have decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for these locations Wednesday night through Friday. Please see website for potential snowfall totals. By Friday night the main precip threat should end as the jet dynamics push to the Dakotas and upslope and moisture decrease. BT .LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue... Weather pattern will remain active through the weekend into the first part of next week. Location of Canadian frontal boundary will be a problematic feature with regard to both temperatures and snow potential across our cwa. Snow will continue Friday, shifting east over time as the cold air shallows along our western foothills, eventually ending with shortwave passage Friday night. Greatest snow amounts during this time should continue to be over the mountains and away from the foothills, per downslope component of 40-50 kt westerly flow at 700mb. Friday-Friday night may also offer the greatest potential for snowfall across our eastern zones. Though model spread in sfc temps remains high, pressure tendencies suggest the colder Canadian airmass keep easterly winds and temps well below normal across the plains on Friday, so have lowered expected highs a few degrees. Temperature forecast will be difficult Saturday through next Monday as Canadian front remains nearby, with occasional cold surges offset by brief periods of downsloping off the foothills, courtesy of a couple Pacific shortwaves. Will stay near a model average for now, with temps likely to be above normal along the foothills and below normal in our east. Lower elevation snow cover could help to keep lee side surface pressures elevated, so a leaning on the cold side of the model spread seems prudent at this time. A series of fast-moving shortwaves will keep the chance of snow showers going from Saturday night through Monday, again keeping in mind that the location of the surface boundary will be important. It does appear that the ridge axis will shift east and allow for a greater chance of warmer downslope winds spreading east across our cwa by Tuesday. With this in mind have raised temps to above normal with highs into the 50s by next Tuesday. JKL && .AVIATION... Gusty NW surface winds will continue to decrease this evening. Gusty SW winds in KLVM will decrease to light easterly around 06Z, then increase again from the SW early Wed. morning. Expect LLWS over KLVM when the winds become light. Chances for snow will increase over the area from W to E overnight. On Wed. morning, chances for snow will be confined to KLVM to KBIL to KMLS N. The snow will be accompanied by MVFR/IFR conditions through Wednesday. Chances for rain and snow showers will occur across the entire area Wed. afternoon. Expect LLWS over KBIL on Wednesday. Widespread mountain obscurations will affect the Beartooths, Absarokas and Crazys through Wed., while localized obscurations will affect the NE Bighorns. Arthur && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 023/048 026/033 017/031 020/033 020/037 021/041 030/054 43/W 76/S 75/S 31/B 22/W 33/J 22/W LVM 028/049 031/041 027/046 027/043 030/051 029/051 036/056 34/W 66/O 66/O 21/B 33/W 33/W 22/W HDN 022/051 025/035 018/031 015/031 016/037 018/041 026/054 24/W 66/S 65/S 31/B 22/W 33/J 22/W MLS 014/037 021/027 014/027 012/023 010/029 011/034 023/048 13/J 24/S 77/S 41/E 43/J 32/J 22/W 4BQ 019/047 025/036 017/029 015/033 018/039 017/041 027/055 11/E 44/S 66/S 51/B 22/W 42/J 22/W BHK 010/035 018/025 008/020 010/022 012/028 010/031 020/045 01/E 23/S 57/S 52/J 44/J 32/J 22/W SHR 018/050 027/041 023/042 023/045 025/051 024/051 029/058 11/B 33/O 33/S 51/B 12/W 32/W 22/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon FOR ZONES 28>31-34-35-41-42-57-63. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1051 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push east across the state tonight and early Wednesday. Windy but relatively mild conditions with a decent amount of sunshine will follow the front for Wednesday. A weak area of low pressure will likely track south of PA on Friday. This system will likely bring between 1 and 3 inches of snow to the area from late Thursday Night into Friday. Another weak low moving south of PA on Sunday may bring more light snow to the area on Sunday, mainly across the southern part of the state. A third and more complex area of low pressure may target the area Monday Night into Tuesday with additional light snow. Temperatures will trend below normal by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Radar loop at 0330Z showing a distinct line of showers along cold front pushing through the northwest mountains, with a trailing area of light rain associated with upward motion beneath jet streak entrance region. Model timing of front ranges from 04Z-06Z across the central mountains, to between 08Z-09Z over Lancaster County. However, expect post fropa showers to continue for a couple hours in region of favorable jet streak dynamics. By dawn, expect the last of the showers to have ended, as cold front passes well east of the area and jet streak forcing lifts northeast of the state. Based on latest model soundings, have added the chance of snow wet snow mixing with the rain before ending across the high terrain of the north, but no accums expected. Temps by dawn expected to range from the mid 30s over the Allegheny Plateau, to the mid 40s over the southeast counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Based on the HRRR timing and the NCEP NAM/GFS, all the significant shower and rain activity should be to our east on Wednesday. The HRRR shows the lower dew points into the lower Susquehanna Valley around 8 AM. After a mostly sunny start to the day across the entire region, expect increasing clouds and widely sct showers to develop across northern Pa associated with steepening lapse rates ahead of a weak secondary cold front. Increasing flow aloft will begin mixing to the surface as boundary layer warms/deepens by late morning. Although much of the area will be rather windy by afternoon, Bufkit soundings continue to indicate the strongest gusts of around 40kts will be across the western half of the state. A wind advisory remains up for the western portion of our county warning air from mid-morning into the evening. Note the strongest winds will most likely be confined to near the ridge tops and especially down the eastern slopes of the higher terrain. The air mass behind tonight`s cold front will be far from chilly for early March. 850 temps between 0C and -2C along with deep mixing should translate to highs Wednesday from the upper 40s over the northwest mountains, to around 60F across the Lower Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Some light snow indicated by the models and WPC after 06Z Friday, as a weak low tracks east from the plains. Went close to the current fcst. Heaviest snow most likely will fall across the Laurel Highlands. Hard part of the fcst is to figure out why models have nothing to the west of PA before 00Z Friday. Increasing confidence in dry/chilly weather later Friday into Saturday, when all med range guidance shows surface ridge building southeast from the Grt Lks. There could be some upslope snow showers early across the Laurel Highlands, but the flow is rather northerly. A 1048 MB high is fcst to build into the northern plains, with abnormally cold air this weekend. Another weak low moving south of the region on Sunday may bring some light snow to the area (mainly southern PA) early on Sunday. 12Z EC and some other models show almost no snow for PA now. I did cut POPS down some, but did not want to flip, flop the fcst. Still a third system possible with more light snow on Tuesday. This system will likely be followed by another large high with abnormally cold air. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... This evening, one batch of steadier rain can be found across the Middle and Lower Susquehanna Valley region, with a second area of showers poised to move into far northwest portions of Central Pennsylvania associated with the cold front. Mix of variable, and sometimes rapidly changing conditions across the region...with VFR to IFR conditions being reported. In general...look for restrictions to prevail most of the evening into the overnight, until the passage of the cold front. The air behind the front is rather dry so improvement in conditions expected to occur rapidly after the frontal passage. Frontal timing looks to be 02-04 UTC in the northwest...06-08 UTC in central areas...and 09-12 UTC in the southeast. VFR conditions Wednesday behind the front, but winds will be brisk and gusty. Could see frequent gusts 28-32 knots by 16-18z...with the higher gusts at the western airfields. Outlook... Wed...Mainly VFR. Isolated SHRA possible in the Northwest. Thu...Mainly VFR. Though possible MVFR moving in overnight. Fri...Possible MVFR and IFR with snow in central and southern areas. Sat...Mainly VFR. Sun...Chance of some light snow and restrictions. && .FIRE WEATHER... It will be windy on Wednesday and RH levels will fall. However, rainfall last night and today will result in things starting off damp. Thus not seeing an elevated fire risk at this point. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ004-005- 010-017-024-025-033-034. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Lambert NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Grumm/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...Jung FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
858 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 858 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017 We extended the Wind Advisory for northwest Wisconsin, excluding Price County, and Pine County in Minnesota through midnight and the rest of the Wind Advisory through 9 AM. The frequency of the higher gusts may diminish but we still expect some into advisory thresholds. UPDATE Issued at 709 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017 Deep low pressure located well north in northern Ontario along with continued cold air advection has led to strong winds across the Northland into this evening. The cold air and cyclonic flow with embedded shortwaves was also causing snow showers and they will continue tonight. The wind has diminished in spots this evening but still remained high. Several observations continued with sustained winds around 30 MPH with gusts 40 MPH to 50 MPH. Forecast soundings show a gradual decrease in the depth of the mixed layer tonight as would be expected, but the RAP does show mixing to a bit higher than 850MB through Wednesday morning. We monitor trends in the wind over the next hour or so but may have to extend the Wind Advisory for portions of the Northland. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017 A gradual downtrend in wind magnitudes are expected for this evening before ramping up again during the day tomorrow. Through this afternoon, most places have been gusting between 35 and 45 knots, with some gusts up to 50 knots observed over the Duluth area. Model soundings are indicating gusts will continue through the evening before boundary layer mixing weakens a bit overnight. Winds will still gust between 25 to 35 knots, which is below the Wind Advisory criteria. 850 mb level winds progged in the synoptic models will gradually weaken overnight, but could still remain strong through the evening, although the wind threat is a bit more marginal. Thus, extended the current Wind Advisory through 03z tonight. Will let the subsequent shifts make the decision regarding to drop the Wind Advisory early. Winds are expected to continue to be gusty Wednesday, but not as strong as was observed today as the stronger low-level jet flow will move off to the south and weaken. Winds could still gust between 25 to 35 knots during the day Wednesday. The Northland is expected to remain under the cyclonic flow from a potent sfc low pressure system that will translate across northwest Ontario and northeast towards Hudson Bay. The associated mid-level shortwave trough is expected to eject a couple of embedded positive vorticity advection lobes through the region, keeping some modest support for a chance of snow showers, especially across the northern portions of the forecast area. Coupled with the gusty westerly winds tonight and Wednesday morning, there is the potential of some blowing snow, mainly along the Iron Range and points north. Chances of snow showers will come to an end Wednesday afternoon as the better mid-level support advances to the east. Temperatures will actually be below seasonal averages tonight and Wednesday, thanks to enhanced cold air advection as the system departs. Lows tonight look to drop into the single digits north and the upper teens southeast. Highs Wednesday will range from the mid teens north to the upper 20s and near 30 south. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 312 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017 The upper level low will continue to move off to the north and east Wednesday night, but the upper level flow will continue out of the northwest for the end of the week and into the weekend. Some scattered snow showers will be possible at times along the south shore of Lake Superior, but overall, winds look a bit too westerly for any appreciable snow accumulation. Otherwise, it is shaping up to be a dry and relatively cool period from Wednesday night through Saturday night. The next real chance of precipitation should arrive on Sunday, and move out of the area on Monday. The GFS brings the most prolonged period of light snow, with the ECMWF indicating a quick shot of light snow during that time. Temperatures will be below normal for much of the long term period with highs in the teens and 20s from Thursday into Saturday with some moderation late in the weekend and early in the upcoming work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 544 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017 Very strong winds continued across most of the Northland this evening and they will only slowly decrease tonight but remain strong into Wednesday. Snow showers will also occur and will increase in coverage for a time this evening before diminishing late. Mainly VFR ceilings will occur but some drop to MVFR is expected. The visibility in the snow showers will drop to IFR at times or even LIFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 12 20 6 24 / 50 10 0 0 INL 5 16 -2 14 / 60 30 0 0 BRD 13 27 10 27 / 50 10 0 0 HYR 17 27 10 29 / 30 20 0 0 ASX 17 24 12 28 / 40 30 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ001>004-006>008. Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ009. MN...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ038. Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ018>021-025-026- 033>037. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Melde SHORT TERM...JTS LONG TERM...DAP AVIATION...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
917 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A moist cold front will cross the region through the morning Wednesday. Dry high pressure will then build in and persist through Thursday before a weak area of low pressure quickly passes by on Friday. A stronger low pressure system will cross the area late Saturday into Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures and beneficial rainfall. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 910 PM: Turns out virtually all guidance was far too slow in moving the prefrontal rainfall through the area. What was left of the primary rain shield is now a showery area over the I-85 corridor and vicinity. This is moving east at about 40 mph, and there should be a lull in activity before a narrow band arrives within the frontal convergence zone (as currently seen along the upper Ohio River and as far south as eastern KY). Since guidance is universally handling the timing of the first wave poorly, the grids basically have been drawn by hand. Followed the HRRR on the later band, as it seems to be on track with that feature. Temps are being adjusted per RAP, which will keep values warmer until they fall fairly rapidly late in the night. Behind the front on Wednesday, little post fropa cooling is expected as the replacement airmass originated over the southern/central Rockies. Thus, although dewpoints will fall off by nearly 20 degrees, afternoon highs Wed will be fairly similar to those Tue given abundant insolation, especially over the Piedmont where downsloping flow will prevail. All said, Wednesday looks to be a fairly nice day across the region with modest nwly 15-20mph gusting possible outside of mtns, gusting in the 25-35mph range over the high terrain. Given the drier air advecting into the region as mentioned above, RH levels look to fall to critical levels across the vast majority of the fcst area during peak mixing on Wednesday. Depending on the eventual placement/amounts of rainfall associated with the fropa tonight, fire danger statements may be needed. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 210 PM Tuesday, a fast quasi-zonal/low amplitude upper air pattern will be in place across much of the eastern half of the Conus during the short term, with dry (but warm) surface high pressure dominating early in the period. Max temps will remain well (i.e., more than 10 degrees) above climo through the period, while the dry air/good radiational cooling conditions should allow Wednesday night`s min temps to fall close to climo. A strong short wave trough digging into the Northeast/upper Mid-Atlantic late in the period will send another cold front toward the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia on Friday. A consensus of operational model guidance indicates moisture will be limited primarily to the lower levels, while even that may dry up as the front pushes east of the mtns within a westerly low level flow regime. Pops will therefore be mainly limited to the mtns, and even there, only 30-40 percent chances appear warranted attm. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 2pm Tuesday: For the extended forecast, the main forecast event will be the passage of an upper trough/frontal system Saturday night and Sunday. This event is expected to bring a half inch to three quarters of an inch of rain to most locations, with some snow at the highest elevations in the mountains. The cold spot in the forecast will be behind the front Monday morning with freezing temperatures at higher elevations, and frost possible in the Piedmont. A brief period of northeasterly surface wedge flow is possible on Saturday with a small surface high setting-up over eastern VA, but this will be quickly disrupted by the next system, though cold surface wedge in place will preclude any sort of deep convection with that system. EC and GFS models are fairly consistent in the handling of the Saturday/Sunday system with precipitation moving across the TN/NC line Saturday evening and exiting the area eastward by Sunday afternoon. EC is somewhat heavier with precip., though a model blend will be the best guess at this point. Temperatures Sunday morning over much of western North Carolina will be cold enough for some snow mixed with rain, but accumulations of up to a few inches are only expected at the highest elevations in the mountains. A fairly strong surface low develops off the Carolina coast as the upper low moves east of the mountains, which will strengthen the system as it exits the area and bring some stronger easterly winds to Piedmont areas. Northwesterly flow aloft continues behind the system passage on Monday and Tuesday with some slight chance for precipitation from an embedded shortwave, but dewpoints and moisture are kept dry with persistent northwesterly 850mb flow. GFS tries to develop a trough with precip. into western parts of the CWA early on Tuesday, but this is ill-defined at this point, and is a detail completely lacking in the EC model. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and Elsewhere: A cold front is set to cross the area during the early morning hours. Preceding this front, patches of DZ and SHRA will move across all sites in some fashion, before a more contiguous band of RA arrives. Some guidance indicates a third narrow band will develop in the convergence zone right along the front later tonight. Guidance and upstream obs suggest the greatest chance of prolonged restrictions will develop with that "middle" band and persist for some time after it moves past each affected terminal. While guidance supports mainly MVFR, obs suggest spotty IFR cigs/vsby will develop therein. IFR could also return if the later band develops. Lifting/scattering back to VFR, along with the post-frontal shift to NW winds, is expected in the wee hours at KAVL/KHKY and just before sunrise at the Piedmont sites. The southwesterly flow overnight will bring some occasional minor gusts, with more brisk gusts occurring under CAA regime during the day (particularly at KAVL). Outlook: Dry high pressure persists Wed night and Thursday. Another cold front will likely move thru the area on Friday, however it appears to be mostly dry. A passing low pressure system late in the weekend might bring some precipitation to the region, and if so would likely cause restrictions for at least some of the area. Confidence Table... 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z KCLT High 97% High 89% High 100% High 100% KGSP Med 76% High 90% High 100% High 100% KAVL Med 70% High 91% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 87% High 93% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 83% High 87% High 100% High 100% KAND High 95% High 80% High 100% High 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...CDG/Wimberley SHORT TERM...JDL LONG TERM...WJM AVIATION...Wimberley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
350 PM HST Tue Mar 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather is in store for portions of the state into Thursday. A strong upper level trough passing over the region will create the potential for heavy showers and strong thunderstorms during this time, especially along a stalled band of low level moisture currently stretched over and near Maui County and northern Big Island. A weak ridge will settle near the state on Friday, bringing light winds and humid conditions for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... A complex pattern remains in place this afternoon, with heavy showers and thunderstorms favoring the eastern half of the island chain. A band of low level moisture and convergence, the remnant of an old front, has been stalled over Maui County and northern Big Island all day, with precipitable water (PW) values hovering around 1.25 to 1.6 inches. Meanwhile, a strong mid to upper level trough centered about 300 miles northwest of Kauai continues to dig toward the state. This feature is already producing enough instability to trigger isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms along the low level moisture band. The mid to upper level trough is also driving a weak surface cold front that is being obscured by a band of layered high clouds just northwest of Kauai. Sandwiched between these features, a somewhat dry, northerly low level flow with dew points in the lower 60s deg F range is fading over Oahu. The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable tonight and Wednesday, upping chances for heavy showers and possibly strong thunderstorms. Although the details remain elusive, the GFS and ECMWF models are both showing a roughly 100 kt jet stream setting up over the islands late tonight and Wednesday as the upper level trough digs over the region. Temps at 500 mb will fall to the -13 to -16 C range, which is very cold by Hawaii standards. As a result, CAPE values increase, especially along the stalled low level moisture boundary, while 0-6 km bulk shear values remain elevated at 35 kt or more. This instability will set the stage for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms as early as late tonight, but chances are higher during the day on Wednesday as CAPE is maximized. The greatest threat will remain along the low level moisture boundary centered over Maui County and northern Big Island. We will also have to monitor the dissipating front moving over Kauai tonight, since the HRRR model is suggesting that thunderstorms could develop due to orographic forcing late this evening. Though the threat is marginal, mainly due to the isolated nature of the potential heavy showers, we felt that a Flash Flood Watch is appropriate, since there will be a prolonged period of heavy shower potential and the possibility of anchored showers under light winds. The Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all islands, with the greatest flood potential remaining along the low level moisture boundary. By Wednesday night, the GFS and ECMWF show deeper moisture surging northward over the state, maintaining the threat for flash flooding. On Thursday, the upper level trough will gradually weaken overhead, but conditions will remain rather moist and unstable. The Flash Flood Watch currently runs through Wednesday night but may need to be extended into Thursday. The flood and thunderstorm threat will diminish on Friday as the upper level trough weakens and pushes eastward. A weak low level ridge will build just north of the state, ushering in weak trades. The ridge will shift over the islands during the weekend, promoting light winds and humid conditions. && .AVIATION... For the eastern Hawaiian Islands, moisture from a remnant frontal boundary between the Big Island and Maui will continue to be the focus of showers into the evening. At this time, this is highlighted with VCSH for the nearby terminals at Kona and Kahului. Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions will remain possible into the evening for these locations and will continue to monitor radar trends closely for the possible addition of tempo groups to highlight heavier showers and thunderstorms for these terminals. For the western Hawaiian Islands, the next frontal boundary will move eastward across Kauai this afternoon into the evening and eastward to Oahu and Maui overnight. This will allow for an increased chance of showers with thunderstorms with gusty winds and MVFR conditions possible as the boundary moves through. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscurations remains in effect for windward sections of Maui. As moisture encroaches from the west with the next frontal boundary, this may be needed for Kauai and possibly Oahu overnight. && .MARINE... The west-northwest swell (290-320 deg) currently impacting the islands and its resulting surf will gradually ease through early Wednesday. The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery showed a gale- force low centered around 1000 nautical miles north-northwest of the state tracking back toward the south-southeast. The latest ASCAT pass late this morning still showed an area of gales out of the northwest associated with this feature focused toward the local area. This will result in a large reinforcing swell out of a more northwest direction (330 deg) with expected impact to the Hawaiian waters Wednesday through early Friday before gradually trending down into the weekend. The ECMWF-Wave solution still brings this swell in a bit earlier across the local waters with a peak up to a couple of feet larger than the WAVEWATCH III. If this larger solution verifies, surf may near warning levels late Wednesday through Wednesday night. For now, have issued a High Surf Advisory for exposed north and west facing shores for Wednesday and Thursday. Large seas will also be an issue with this swell, so a Small Craft Advisory will be needed. Seas and surf trend down once again Friday through the weekend. Local winds will remain light through the week as another front approaches and moves into the area through mid-week. Periods of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms remain in the forecast due to a combination of this front and a disturbance aloft setting up over the region. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM HST this evening through late Wednesday night for all Hawaii islands. High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 6 PM HST Thursday for Niihau-Kauai Windward-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Oahu Koolau-Molokai-Maui Windward West-Maui Central Valley- Windward Haleakala. Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island Summits. && $$ Public...Wroe Marine...TS Aviation...Woodrum
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
958 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the area late tonight with a few showers possible. High pressure will build in through Saturday in the wake of this front. Low pressure will bring a chance of showers late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 10 PM Tuesday...Broken band of light rainshowers impinging upon the CWA from the NW while a shower or two are skirting the coast over our eastern fringes. Coverage will gradually increase but given latest under-whelming depictions from high-res guidance see no need to increase POPs from present chance levels. Previous discussion follows: A warm day will transition to a warm night as SW return flow around offshore high pressure persists ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusty S/SW winds have reached 20-25 mph this aftn, and while gusts will ease tonight, sustained winds will remain elevated as the gradient pinches ahead of the boundary. This will keep temps elevated tonight, with mins expected to drop only to a degree or two either side of 60. At the same time, southerly flow may try to advect a few showers onshore this evening, but have capped POP at SCHC for the coastal sections. A better chance of rain occurs overnight and into the first few hours of Wednesday, associated with the cold front. High-res guidance including the HRRR and ARW both suggest precip coverage will be waning as this front pushes across the region, exiting offshore early Wednesday morning. Have capped POP at high CHC, with the highest QPF expected across northern zones. Even there, total rainfall will only reach around 0.1 inches, with less forecast to the south. Cold advection behind this feature is weak to non- existent, which combined with a rapidly drying column and increasing W/NW (downslope) winds, will allow highs on Wednesday to reach equally high, if not slightly warmer, than those which occurred today. Highs on Wednesday will jump into the low to mid 70s, with the warmest spots possibly being just away from the beaches where downslope warming is maximized. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Basically a zonal mid level flow will continue across the area through the period with high pressure building at the surface. The subtle downslope component will keep temperatures rather warm, some seven to ten degrees above normal moreso for highs Thursday which range from the lower to middle 70s under mostly sunny skies. Good radiational conditions will allow Thursday morning mins to dip to near seasonal values in the lower to middle 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Strong Canadian high pressure should be able to push a backdoor cold front through the area late Fri and Fri night and we can not rule out a light shower during this time. The front should push back into the area by Sat night. Waves of low pressure will move along the front bringing a likelihood for showers and some thunderstorms Sat night into Sun. There is some potential for significant rainfall given the magnitude and depth of the moisture return. As the final wave moves across and then strengthens offshore, it will take the front offshore. Cool and dry high pressure will follow from the N and may attempt to wedge into the area early next week. Highs in the lower to mid 70s Fri will cool into the 60s for the remainder of the period. The coolest night will be Sun night when most locations will dip to the upper 30s to lower 40s and some spots could drop to the mid 30s. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 00Z...A cold front will cross the terminals Wednesday morning with scattered showers and increasing clouds, but VFR will remain predominant. BKN to OVC cloud cover will overspread the terminals ahead of the cold front, and MVFR is possible in showers overnight. Our northern-most terminals of ILM and LBT may see a brief period of IFR for low cigs in heavier showers. Otherwise, the primary concern will be gusty S/SW winds of 10-15 kts through FROPA, becoming W/NW daytime Wednesday. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR except MVFR conditions possible in showers Sat night. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 10 PM Tuesday...Southerly winds now in the 15 to 20 kt range with seas of around 4 ft in advance of the next frontal system. Forecast in good shape with no changes needed. Previous discussion follows: S/SW winds will steadily increase through tonight ahead of a cold front which will cross offshore early on Wednesday. Winds will rise to 15-20 kts this evening and tonight while slowly veering more to the SW. Winds will then veer further on Wednesday as the FROPA occurs during the morning, with gusty W/NW winds of 15-20 kts easing slowly through the evening. These gusty winds will create amplified short period waves, briefly reaching 3-5 ft overnight, but will otherwise be 2-4 ft, falling on the offshore winds late in the period. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...The period begins with a light northwesterly flow of ten knots or less with somewhat weak high pressure to the west. By the end of the period the high will slowly recenter offshore with a weak return flow developing. Once again the gradient/systems are rather weak so it will be hard pressed to get any winds over ten knots. Expect 2-4 feet seas early with the range dropping off to 1-3 feet. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Strong Canadian high pressure should be able to push a backdoor cold front through the waters late Fri and Fri night. The front should push back into the waters Sat night before finally getting shoved offshore by another front Sun or Sun night as low pressure moves across the area and offshore. The gradient may become pinched between building high pressure and departing, but strengthening low pressure Sun and Sun night. SW winds Fri will shift to the N and NE Fri night. NE winds will become E Sat and then veer to SE and S Sat night. The wind direction on Sun will be SW, shifting to N Sun eve. The strongest winds will occur Fri night, 15 to 20 kt. However, even stronger winds are possible Sun and Sun night and a Small Craft Advisory may be required. The highest seas will occur Fri night and into the weekend, around 4 ft with 5 ft seas possible across the outer waters. Seas could very well build to 6 ft or higher during Sun and Sun night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...JDW/SRP SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...REK MARINE...RJD/JDW/SHK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
956 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017 .UPDATE... Light winds prevailed across the Midsouth at midevening. Skies were clear over most of the region. High clouds from convection along the central Gulf coast prevailed over northeast MS. 00Z GFS depicted this high level moisture exiting during the overnight, leaving clear skies. Current setup favors efficient low level radiational cooling and patchy fog formation in the low lying areas overnight. 9 PM dewpoints were warmer than forecast overnight lows, but should continue to slowly fall, in parallel with temps overnight. Last several HRRR runs depicted low probabilities for dense fog, but will continue to monitor. PWB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017/ UPDATE... Updated to include 00Z aviation discussion below. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM CST Tue Mar 7 2017/ DISCUSSION... The cold front has moved east of the area this afternoon, with much drier air advecting into the CWA in its wake. Dewpoints have fallen into the lower 30s across portions of northeast AR and the MO Bootheel. Winds will become light and variable this evening as the surface anticyclone settles over the area. Skies will continue to clear and the dry air will promote radiational cooling. Saturated soils should limit temperatures from getting below freezing tonight, but we do anticipate a fair amount of low to mid 30s overnight, especially in low-lying areas and river valleys across west TN and north MS. Farther west, return flow on the backside of the surface high should keep the boundary layer a bit more mixed. Patchy frost may be an issue overnight in the colder, sheltered areas. Generally benign weather is anticipated Wednesday and Thursday. Southerly winds will resume across the area under strong quasi- zonal flow aloft. The jet stream will remain well north of the area tomorrow, settling over the Great Lakes. This will keep sky conditions mostly sunny with afternoon temperatures of 65-70 degrees. Mid/high clouds are expected to increase across the Mid- South by Thursday afternoon, but no precipitation is anticipated through sunset. The increasing cloud cover could temper the afternoon warm-up a bit on Thursday, but temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 70s across the area. A compact, low-amplitude shortwave trough is progged to approach the Mid-South Thursday night. Rain chances will increase during the evening hours in the warm advection regime ahead of this trough, but the primary focus will be the attendant cold front diving south across the CWA during the late night and early morning hours. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along this front. SPC has highlighted part of the area in a marginal risk for severe weather, but the greater probability of strong storms will be farther west. Drier and cooler air will move into the Mid-South on Friday, shunting rain chances south into northern MS. High temperatures may remain in the 50s across the northern portion of the CWA, but are still forecast to warm into the mid/upper 60s south of I-40. Generally dry weather is expected Friday night, but a stronger shortwave trough is progged to affect the area on Saturday. A reinforcing cold front is progged to sweep across the area during coastal low deepens along the Gulf coast. Rain chances will quickly ramp back up into the likely category (60-70%) Saturday with a few strong storms possible along the cold front, mainly over the southern counties. As the wave pulls out, cooler and drier air will move into the CWA, bringing rain chances to an end overnight. There is a brief window where a bit of light wintry precipitation cannot be ruled out. A rain/snow mix was included Saturday night, mainly north of a Jonesboro to Camden line. The more likely scenario is that the precipitation pulls out before the colder temperatures arrive, but there does remain considerable uncertainty. We`ll continue to watch how this system evolves and fine-tune the timing. Both the Superblend and National Blend of Models indicate rain chances on Monday, but the neither the GFS nor the ECMWF deterministic solutions support this. Thus, dry weather is currently forecast for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Sunday, with highs on the 50s, but should warm back into the 60s early next week. We`ll have to watch temperatures on Sunday morning as there is a potential for a few areas to experience a light freeze. Stay tuned... Johnson && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs VFR conds through the period. Winds light and variable overnight, becoming southwest 4 to 8 kts after 08/14Z. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
720 PM EST Tue Mar 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front passes this evening. High pressure Thursday. A cold front crosses early Friday. Another system for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 730 PM Tuesday...Made minor adjustments to refine PoP based on radar trends and timing of frontal passage through the region over the next few hours. As of 645 PM Tuesday...Slightly tweaked sky cover with clearing behind the front later tonight based on current movement and meso model guidance. As of 440 PM Tuesday...Updated PoP to reflect current RADAR trends as two bands of rain push through the region this evening. The first band is pushing through now and the second band is associated with the cold front and will make it to the Ohio River around 00Z. Between these two features I went ahead and lowered PoP to slight chance with a clear gap indicated on RADAR. However, I kept the forecast PoP fairly similar to the previous forecast with the passing of the actual cold front. Distinct clearing line behind the front seen on visible METSAT, and next update will likely entail at what time to clear out skies overnight. As of 100 PM Tuesday... Main forecast challenge hinges on timing precipitation today. Leaned fairly heavily on a blend of HRRR, NAMNest and RAP guidance. One area of showers moving through the northern mountains early this afternoon will continue east away from the CWA. Have more scattered showers for a time across central CWA, before next band of more organized showers arrives from the west. This band is currently making its way into SE Ohio, so start with likely POPs there this afternoon, and gradually march those across CWA from west to east. Models all fairly insistent on another very thin line of shower with the actual cold front which will move through this have another line of likely POPs right with the front. Thought about taking out thunder completely, but in the end decided to still leave an isolated rumble in this afternoon across the central and southern CWA. Not a real cold punch behind the front, and have fairly mild temperatures tonight and Wednesday. Do expect some gusty winds on Wednesday. It`s fairly marginal, but decided to post a wind advisory for the high terrain of Pocahontas and Randolph counties late morning through the afternoon. Even across the lowlands, winds will be on the gusty side...and with very dry air at the surface we could hit some fire weather RH/wind thresholds. However, ground should still be fairly soggy after today`s rain, so fine fuels will likely not dry out enough to cause enhance fire conditions. Will need to monitor this tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Tuesday... The upper westerly flow transitions to a more northwesterly component this period. This will allow a clipper type short wave to push a cold front south and east across the area Thursday night. A large Canadian high pressure system with much colder air will then filter in behind the front. Enough moisture and decent dynamics will be available to bring a band of light rain showers with the front Thursday night, and change to snow showers in the northern mountains before ending early on Friday with little accumulation. Look for highs Thursday in the 60s to highs Friday in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM Tuesday... We still have a low pressure system to monitor over the weekend. However, the models have shown a southward shift in the track of the low across the southern states for Saturday and Saturday night. It appears the northwest flow aloft over the eastern U.S. will be be slower to lift out, thereby shunting the system farther to the south. Thus, even though most of the models do show most of the area experiencing at least some precipitation from this system, the heaviest looks to be in the southern portions of our area, while the heaviest of precipitation will be south of the our area over the Tennessee valley and Carolinas. On the other hand, this will help allow cold air to hold over the area so that any precipitation that falls will tend to be snow or a mix of rain and snow. Snow accumulations are quite uncertain at this time frame as the track keeps being adjusted by the models. It will definitely be a cold weekend with temperatures well below normal. Then look for a warmup early next week as the upper trough lifts out. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 750 PM Tuesday... Cold front will be pushing through tonight with light rain and low ceilings. Behind the front there is some drizzle and low stratus before eventual clearing later tonight. Timing this feature based on upstream observations and radar is a bit tricky, but overall only thinking these IFR ceilings will last about 2 hours or so. Dry air moves in behind a cold front for around midnight and moves from west to east through early morning. VFR conditions are expected with mostly clear skies tomorrow. Southerly winds will turn west-northwest behind the front. Will be rather gusty on Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight and high tomorrow. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions could vary with passing cold front tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M H M M L H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M L M M L M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M L L H H H H M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for WVZ523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MPK