Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/06/17
See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
While temperatures have topped out in the 60s and afternoon humidity
has fallen below 20%, most area winds are only in the 10 to 20 mph
range. As such the fire weather headlines have been cancelled.
Main focus remains on the strong low pressure system that develops
across North Dakota for Monday. GEFS mean sea level pressure
anomalies with this feature are 4-5 standard deviations below climo
which is the reason we are expecting such strong winds, although the
GFS is on the lower end of the spectrum when it comes to MSLP
compared to the NAM/Canadian guidance. Regardless this will be a
strong wind producer.
Initially the strongest winds will actually be across the Coteau
with pressure falls of 10mb and 1/2km winds of 50kts. While not the
best mixing conditions these two factors will result in strong
sustained southerly wind in the morning which may reach advisory
criteria. By mid day this core of strongest wind will pass to the
east. Timing on post frontal winds is still variable between
guidance. Despite weak cold advection in the post frontal
environment, pressure rises of 10-14mb/6 hours and 1/2km winds
between 50 and 65kts suggests most of the area will have some
location reach high wind criteria. The core of strongest winds does
seem to make a rapid jump across the CWA between 21Z-00Z according
to the GFS but it takes that model between 18Z-21Z to cross our
Missouri river counties. The NAM/Canadian are more progressive but
with weaker 1/2km winds which fits with the differences between the
surface pressure.
Winds will remain steady overnight with a gradient and pressure
rises. Mixed winds going into Tuesday remain quite strong with very
steep low level lapse rates. While not included in the forecast,
mulled over adding some diabatically driven snow showers to boot.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
Main challenge in the extended period will be precipitation chances,
with a couple of systems forecast to move across the area. High
pressure will be over the area Wednesday, then gets pushed east by a
low pressure system approaching from the west. May see a few
rain/snow showers across the northern CWA Wednesday night into
Thursday morning with little in the way of significant accumulations.
Will see a brief respite in precipitation Thursday afternoon, then
another system begins to move in from the southwest, bringing decent
chances of precipitation late Thursday night through Friday night,
with a couple of inches of snow accumulation not out of the
question. The models are not in great agreement after that, but a
few of them do show the potential for yet another system toward the
latter half of next weekend. Will introduce high chance pops on
Sunday for now, with changes likely to come in the next several
days.
Will see a gradual cooling trend through the extended period, from
highs in the mid 30s to lower 50s Wednesday, to highs in the mid 20s
to mid 30s on Sunday. After a night with lows in the 20s Wednesday
night, overnight lows will generally be in the teens the rest of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
Making a couple of changes, mainly to the KABR/KATY TAFs, given
the latest short range model guidance and the continued advection
of higher amounts of surface/boundary layer moisture into east
central/northeast South Dakota overnight in tandem with some
strong pressure falls out ahead of a surface low and cold frontal
passage. Guidance is indicating the potential that some fog and/or
low stratus may be developing on favorable low level south-
southeasterly upslope winds over the prairie coteau later tonight
after 06z including at KATY. Further north and west, KABR will be
closer to a surface trof of low pressure and markedly lighter
winds overnight (favors fog formation?). KABR is also expected to
see less cloud cover and for a longer period of time than at KATY.
Started KABR out with an MVFR ceiling later tonight and will begin
ramping up fog mention, if guidance continues to lean more in that
direction for KABR.
KPIR and KMBG are still likely to remain VFR all the way through
to Monday afternoon before any potential caa/mixing stratus or
strato-cu starts to show up.
Something else that short range, hi-resolution models are hinting
at is the potential for some moderately strong elevated convection
by late tonight persisting through early Monday afternoon out
ahead of and in conjunction with the strong cold frontal passage
forecast on Monday. If trends in placement/timing of convection
begin to line up better in the short range guidance, will work to
introduce some sort of thunder mention at whichever TAF site
confidence is highest. By early afternoon, the front should be
east of KPIR and KMBG with the potential for some very strong
west-northwest winds to develop there for the rest of the day
into the overnight hours. It takes a little while longer for this
strong front to pass the KABR/KATY terminals. But, when it does,
the same can be expected there; namely very strong westerly winds.
There is also the potential for some post-frontal rain/snow
showers Monday afternoon through late Monday evening behind this
strong cold frontal passage.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 9 PM CST /8 PM
MST/ Monday for SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048-051.
High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
for SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-036-037.
MN...High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
for MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
840 PM MST Sun Mar 5 2017
.UPDATE...
Made another update to push the winter weather advisory farther
west into Rosebud, Treasure and northern Big Horn counties. Radar
shows showers developing quickly. High resolution captures this
and lingers strong returns over these areas tonight. The question
will be how quickly will the rain showers change to snow. Should
happen pretty quick with cold air rushing in and low dewpoint
temperatures. Yellowstone county will be tricky as the eastern
part of the county may pick up advisory type of weather, but only
expecting around an inch over the western part of the county.
Midnight crew will need to monitor Yellowstone county closely. Did
raise PoPs again for central zones to account for the above. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...
Dynamic 24 hours expected as a strong cold front will sweep
through the area tonight with very strong winds behind it. Ahead
of the front airmass is mostly dry but becoming unstable
facilitating deep mixing. Just to the west snow is as far east as
Dillon with temperatures in the 20s in Lewistown. Upper trough
over the Pacific Northwest with strong shortwave passing through
the base of the trough in northern CA with height falls causing
surface pressure falls across central Montana. Front to the west
will jump into this surface trough later this evening and the
approaching shortwave from the southwest will trigger another
round of pressure falls over northern Wyoming and southeast
Montana later tonight. Bottom line is front causes a significant
transition across the area tonight and the second round of
pressure falls spins up a focused area of precipitation and
increased wind over later tonight and early Monday for eastern
areas.
HRRR guidance shows visibilities dropping quickly along the front
tonight as it make the jump into south central Montana but do
expect warm ground to limit snowfall amounts. Will be a dramatic
period when the front arrives and strong northwest winds combine
with brief heavy snow. Further east temperatures will be cooler as
the precipitation intensifies allow for better chances for
accumulations. Pressure rises increase from the west late tonight
with strong cold air advection with 850mb winds over 50kts for
southeast Montana and southern Big Horn County and Sheridan
County. Winds look to be strongest in Sheridan County and have
issued a high wind warning with LAMP guidance showing multiple
hours with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Better precipitation
amounts expected as far west as Rosebud County but think early
precipitation will be rain with warm ground decreasing
accumulations amounts. Combination of snow and wind over southeast
Montana will cause difficult travel late tonight and early
Monday.
Tuesday is a quieter day as heights rise and the airmass dries out
and winds decrease. Temperatures will still be cooler and remain
in the 40s with some mountain snow showers. borsum
.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...
Major changes were not needed to the long term forecast. The main
area of concern in the long term period, beginning Wednesday,
will be periods of snow. Upper level flow through most of next
week will be westerly, with a good feed of pacific moisture
embedded in the flow. Cold arctic air entrenched over Canada will
move south into eastern Montana, and central zones such as
Billings and Roundup, as a large upper level low over the Hudson
Bay forces this air south and west. While confidence is high
regarding the general circulation pattern over our region, snow
amounts and locations will vary based on how far this arctic
boundary can slip into Montana. The EC is not as aggressive with
this boundary, and thus was a little drier and warmer through most
of next week, and kept the snow over northern Montana. The GFS
has this boundary much further south and west into Montana, with
much better moisture overrunning this arctic boundary. Kept a
chance of snow in the forecast each day through next week until
details become more clear. For temperatures took a mostly even
blend, though this will all depend where the arctic boundary sets
up next week. Dobbs
&&
.AVIATION...
A cold front has crossed through KLVM, KBIL, and KMLS, with gusty
northwest winds, showers, and periodically reduced flight
conditions. The front will bring a transitions from gusty SW winds
to west and northwest winds behind the front, along with
increasing rain/snow showers to KSHR by 06z, and through the
remained of southeast montana by ~10z. VFR conditions continue to
prevail across the region, but are expected to transition to
MVFR/IFR through the remainder of the evening and overnight as the
cold front continues eastward. Mountain obscurations will persist
through Monday afternoon as the storm system intensifies over
eastern Montana. Expect to see very strong wind gusts from KBIL
east to KMLS, KSHR, and the Dakotas by 12z Monday, with gusts
reaching 35 to 50 kts. Higher gusts are expected east of KSHR. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/042 025/043 027/051 029/043 014/028 012/033 009/026
63/S 11/N 22/W 33/O 64/S 33/S 33/S
LVM 020/034 020/036 028/047 033/045 021/036 023/037 017/033
53/S 22/J 24/W 53/R 65/S 44/S 34/S
HDN 025/043 022/042 021/050 026/043 012/031 011/033 009/028
85/S 11/N 22/W 33/O 54/S 43/S 33/S
MLS 028/041 023/038 020/045 025/038 010/024 011/028 007/022
78/S 10/N 12/W 53/S 54/S 33/S 33/S
4BQ 027/041 022/039 020/051 025/046 015/034 015/037 013/030
68/S 10/N 01/E 33/O 64/S 43/S 34/S
BHK 027/037 021/034 015/042 022/034 006/022 008/027 004/021
57/S 10/N 01/E 43/S 65/S 33/S 23/S
SHR 026/037 019/039 020/052 030/049 018/041 019/041 017/034
86/S 11/N 11/B 22/R 23/S 33/S 34/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 3
PM MST Monday FOR ZONES 30>33-36-37-57.
High Wind Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 2 PM MST
Monday FOR ZONES 38-58.
WY...High Wind Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 2 PM MST
Monday FOR ZONE 99.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
515 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
Aloft: SW flow will cont overhead thru tomorrow as a deep (-2
sigma) trof progresses thru the Wrn USA. This trof will be just W
of the fcst area (FA) at 00Z/Tue.
Surface: Strong 1040 mb high pres was over Ern Canada with
deepening 991 mb low pres over MT. This low was along a strong
cool front making its way thru the Wrn USA. A broad warm sector
was over the Plns. The low will deepen further as it heads across
the Dakota`s into Srn Manitoba tomorrow. The FA will remain in the
warm sector until the cool front emerges onto the Plns and
crosses the rgn tomorrow.
This Afternoon: RFW was cancelled at midday. RH`s were not going
to be low enough where winds were highest...and winds were not
going to be high enough where RH was lowest.
P-M/cldy until sunset. Thick cirrostratus was moving thru. So
sky cover was increased.
Tonight: Becoming m/cldy. Very mild. Low temps will be 10-15F
above normal. It will become windy for most of the FA with gusts
of 30-40 mph...highest N-cntrl KS.
The stratus that surged N within the plume of mstr over Ern
Neb/KS last night is not far away per GOES16 vis and obs. It
should move back W tonight per the 06Z/12Z NAM/GFS. The main
question is how far W. The HRRR and LAMP are the best guidance
with low stratus and blending them suggests no further W than Hwy
281. This has implications for aviation fcsts. Regardless of how
far W it is...multi-layered mid-high clouds will still turn the
sky m/cldy. Rapid clearing is expected from W-E after 3 AM.
Mon: This will be on the most serious fire danger day we`ve seen
since Oct 18 2012. Biggest concern is wind. A HWW was issued W of
a line from Ord-Kearney-Alma and my main concern is fcst winds are
not high enough and the coverage of the warning is too limited
(i.e., much more of the FA could be affected by high winds vs what
is currently depicted).
When conds become this extreme...we as fcstrs can be too
conservative because the models are not fully depicting what will
occur.
I compared the sfc map from 21Z Oct 28 2012 to what is fcst
tomorrow and the similarities are very strong. Peak winds of
50-60 mph were widespread with 63 mph at GRI and 70 mph ODX.
Wind: The 15Z HRRRX has widespread G40-45 kts with a few pixels of
50 kts at some time steps all they cross S-cntrl Neb and Rooks/
Phillips Counties in N-cntrl KS.
The few times winds have been this strong since I arrived at this
office...blowing dust occurred. So it`s in the fcst now.
RFW conts as posted.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
Aloft: Low amplitude WNW flow prevails thru next Sun in the wake
of the trof that moves thru Mon eve.
Surface: A series of mstr-starved lows will slide SE along a front
that will be oscillating over the region (NW-SE).
Temps: will be up and down as the front drifts back and forth...
but overall average warmer than normal.
Precip: Very little or none.
Tue: Another RFW will be needed. Another windy day...but not as
windy as Mon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 511 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
Main concern for aviation for this period will be winds. Breezy
conditions are expected to continue through the night and on
Monday expect there to be strong west winds. Have maintained some
low level wind shear late tonight before the winds increase even
more during the day. During the afternoon, there could be some
blowing dust reducing visibility.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
RFW conts as posted for the entire area Mon. This will be the most
serious fire danger day we`ve seen since probably Oct 17-18 2012.
W winds will gust 45-55 mph...possibly higher in a few spots over
S-cntrl Neb.
Tue another Red Flag day.
Light winds Wed.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Monday for NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM CST Monday for NEZ039-046-
060-061-072-073-082-083.
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Monday for KSZ005>007-
017>019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...JCB
FIRE WEATHER...Kelley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
939 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
.UPDATE...
Most shower activity has shifted northeast of the Houston metro
this evening as low level forcing from a jet streak located
around 925-850 MB and weak mid-level forcing from a shortwave
trough moves away from the region. However, scattered shower
activity continues to develop along a low level convergence zone
stretching from Matagorda Bay north towards Caldwell. Have
adjusted rain chances for this evening to reflect current radar
trends as well as to add a mention isolated to scattered showers
across Southeast Texas through the night as a 35-40 knot low level
jet expands across the region. While overall cell motion tonight
should help mitigate against a widespread heavy rain threat
(moving about 25 MPH per latest radar trends), will have to keep
an eye on radar trends for any training that occurs with the KHGX
VAD showing a fairly unidirectional wind profile and precipitable
water values forecast to remain between 1.2 and 1.5 inches. Would
also not be surprised to see a few 30-40 MPH wind gusts as heavier
downpours are able to transport winds associated with the low
level jet to the surface. Minor forecast adjustments were also
made to temperatures and dew points based on observations.
Huffman
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017/
AVIATION...
Cells continue to train across SE TX and the latest HRRR and RAP
keeps things active for the next couple of hours. The s/wv
responsible for the rain has moved east but a weak low level
convergence zone and a plume of deeper moisture will keep
intermittent showers in the forecast for the next 24 hours. Still
expecting MVFR cigs overnight and intermittent cigs falling into
IFR. Winds look strong enough tonight to limit the fog threat. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 81 64 74 53 / 30 30 20 60 10
Houston (IAH) 65 81 68 77 56 / 70 30 20 60 20
Galveston (GLS) 67 75 69 75 61 / 30 30 20 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Monday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CST Monday for
the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay.
&&
$$
Discussion...14
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
912 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
Lots of clouds over the area this evening and am expecting this to
continue during the overnight hours. Cloud cover and gusty winds will
keep temps from dropping too much more than what they have already
fallen to. Gusty winds will also continue overnight. Therefore
current forecast is handling current situation well. No update
planned at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
Strong southerly winds of 15-30 mph and gusts of 25-40 mph prevailed
this afternoon across central IL and will continue Monday ahead of
an approaching cold front. These strong southerly winds gave milder
temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s, despite mostly cloudy skies.
Weakening 1038 mb high pressure over central Quebec and ridging
southward toward eastern VA/NC. Deepening 992 mb surface low
pressure was over central MT. Latest forecast models deepen surface
low pressure of 975 mb over ne ND by sunset Monday while bringing a
cold front east across western IA and nw MO. Increasing low level
moisture into IL ahead of this front with persistent strong
southerly flow. This will bring small chances of light rain showers
into southeast IL overnight and across CWA during Monday morning.
Continued chances of thunderstorms over areas west of I-57 Mon
afternoon, mainly late. Milder lows tonight in the upper 40s and
lower 50s, which is a few degrees above normal highs for early
March. Mild highs Monday in the mid to upper 60s with west central
IL near 70F.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
Showers and thunderstorms will be in the area to start the period
ahead of a cold front that will be approaching western Illinois at
00Z Tuesday. The showers and storms will be most widespread across
the forecast area during the evening, but will begin to taper off
from northwest to southeast overnight in the wake of the cold front.
Recent model runs suggest a few severe storms are possible, mainly
Monday evening, with pre-frontal bulk shear values of 50-60 kts and
MU CAPE values possibly reaching 1000 j/kg or a little higher. The
best chances will occur over west-central Illinois where the
instability will be higher. Locally heavy rainfall is also a threat
with precipitable water values of 1.25-1.5 inches ahead of the
front. The rainfall threat will quickly come to an end Tuesday
morning, if it has not already done so, as the front races to the
east.
Gusty westerly winds are expected in the wake of the front Tuesday,
with gusts to 40 mph possible by Tuesday afternoon. Forecast
soundings suggest fairly deep mixing will develop to support these
wind gusts, but this will also likely result in low Relative
Humidity values in the afternoon. We`ll have to watch the threat for
high fire danger Tuesday afternoon if current model trends persist.
The models continue to struggle with the precipitation risk for the
end of the week into the weekend. A fast west-northwest flow regime
aloft will be in place for most of the week behind the early week
storm. Model spread and run-to-run variability has been high with
the low amplitude waves expected within this pattern. The best
chance for organized precipitation (mainly rain) at this point
appears to be Saturday. Although a risk also exists late
Thursday/Thursday night, and possibly Friday. Numerous adjustments
to the current forecast will likely be needed as the low amplitude
waves are better resolved by the guidance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
MVFR cigs have arrived at all sites except PIA and CMI. However,
CMI should get there soon given that other MTRs to the west are
already MVFR. Based on HRRR forecast, PIA should see MVFR cigs
starting around 02z. MVFR cigs will continue rest of the night and
through tomorrow as lots of low level moisture will advect into
the area from the south tonight and continue through tomorrow.
Models differ on if it will be continuous or have a period of
better cigs at SPI and DEC overnight. Have decided to stay
continuous at all sites with cig height dropping to around 1.5kft
overnight and continuing through tomorrow. Models show possible
light precip in the area tomorrow so will keep the VCSH already in
the TAFs. Winds will remain gusty out of the south overnight and
through tomorrow. Cig heights could improve tomorrow afternoon,
but models differ on this solution. Will decide how to handle for
next issuance.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
956 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2017
Thicker mid-level clouds are nosing in from western Kentucky,
with a few light returns showing up across south central
Kentucky, as isentropic lift ensues. The eastern valleys continue
to drop off, with temperatures in the low 40s currently, while
ridges remain in the mid 50s. Thicker clouds look to overtake the
entire area after midnight, so a few upper 30s may be the low end
of the cooler readings in the east. Further west, some mid 40s are
currently being reported at the cooler sites. These temperatures
should not cool off much more, as thicker clouds are already
entrenched along and west of I-75, and look to remain so through
the rest of the night. Relative humidities are still in the 20 to
30 percent range on some of the ridges in the east. Given the low
level flow to remain more out of the south instead the southwest
through the night, this supports delaying the POPs longer into
Monday morning, especially further east. The latest 00z NAM and
last several HRRR runs, have also shown a slower trend with the
POPs, as the better isentropic lift remains further west. Updates
will be forthcoming.
UPDATE Issued at 718 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2017
Plenty of mid and high level cloud cover has moved in across
the area. Relative humidity is recovering, although some of the
more mixed places remain near or below 20 percent. These should
recover in the next hour or two. The dry low level air as well as
the southerly flow in place, have allowed for valleys to
decouple, with around a 10 degree split thus far in the east.
Have mainly adjusted the diurnal drop off through the night, as
increased clouds, and eventually the threat of some showers, will
likely mitigate the split in the western half of the forecast
area. Will allow for a more sustained split in the east, given the
lower POPs and thinner cloud cover. Updates will be out shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 346 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2017
Afternoon surface analysis shows warm front has lifted north of
the region this afternoon, and this is also seen on the model
theta-e mag. This has shifted winds out of the south to southwest
this afternoon leading to well above average temperatures. This
has also been aided by dry air mixing down and subsequently
leading to teens and lower 20s for RH values this afternoon. This
will lead to the potential for fire weather concerns through the
evening. GOES-16 VIS is showing some AC/cirrus is moving through
the region this afternoon, and did increase sky some in the Lake
Cumberland region to account for this.
Tonight clouds will continue to be on the increase, as an upper
level disturbance advances north and east toward dawn. Overall
given the lower chances felt like scattered POPs seemed best based
on the low chances of measuring and higher cloud bases will play
a role as well. Overall models have remained in good agreement
with this including the CAMS. After this progresses north Monday a
drying trend will occur in the southeast through the day, with
chances of showers continuing along the western CWA border.
Then all eyes turn toward the strengthening system across the
Plains. The surface low becomes vertically stacked across southern
Canada and a trailing cold front will approach the region toward
dawn. Some showers are possible ahead of the boundary, as upper
level waves ride up along base of the trough. Overall think the
better chances will reside beyond the forecast period, with front
expected to make it into western KY by 12Z at best based on the
latest guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2017
The models are in fairly good agreement through Wednesday, but then
diverge with significant implications by next weekend.
On Tuesday, a cold front will move across the area, bringing
widespread showers. Instability looks rather limited, but will carry
a slight chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday which is in agreement
with the latest SPC Day 3 outlook which shows general thunder across
all of KY. With the passage of this cold front cooler air will
overspread the area, and dry weather will prevail from Wednesday
into Thursday.
As we move into the latter part of the week, the GFS maintains
rather zonal flow with a series of low amplitude short wave troughs
bringing periods of showers, and temperatures remaining mild.
However, the ECMWF shows a more amplified pattern with colder air
moving into the area next weekend. In fact the 850 mb temperature
differences by next weekend are 10 to 15 degrees between the GFS and
the ECMWF. The operational GFS looks a little warmer than the mean
of the GEFS, but even the GFS ensembles support a warmer solution
than the ECMWF. The superblend and WPC support the warmer solution
as well and this is what was followed. This translates to highs next
Saturday and Sunday in the lower to middle 60s, with lows Saturday
night mostly in the 40s to lower 50s. Will also carry thunderstorm
chances for Saturday. If the ECMWF was followed we`d end up with
maximum temperatures only in the 40s next weekend, and overnight
lows in the 30s or upper 20s. Needless to say confidence is low in
the forecast for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2017
Clouds will increase and generally lower through the majority of
the period, as moisture increases out ahead of an approaching
system from the west. Will maintain VFR conditions through the
forecast, although places along and west of a line from KSYM and
KSME may flirt with MVFR at times between dawn and noon Monday, as
showers threaten. Shower chances will likely diminish towards the
end of the period, with ceilings likely raising as well. South
winds at 5 to 10 kts through the mid-morning hours on Monday, will
increase to around 10 kts, with gusts of 15 to 20 kts during the
afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
928 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
Area remains cloudy at mid evening with temperatures remaining
well above average for early March. Southerly winds are gusting
out of the south in a tight pressure gradient. We should still
begin to see scattered showers develop across southeast Missouri
into southwest Illinois around midnight. Latest runs of the RAP
continues to show low level moisture convergence in this area
under southwesterly flow aloft. Otherwise, only made minor changes
to temperatures.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
The surface pressure gradient across MO/IL will begin to tighten
overnight due to a developing surface low over the northern plains.
A southwesterly LLJ at H85 will develop and strengthen overnight
before shifting eastward on Monday, and a jet streak aloft will also
approach the area from the west. These factors will lead to windy
conditions on Monday with sustained winds of at least 15-25 mph and
gusts of at least 30-40 mph. Stronger gusts are possible depending
on the depth of mixing on Monday, and a Wind Advisory may eventually
be needed.
Cloudiness is expected to persist overnight due to persistent low-
level moisture advection ahead of the aforementioned low pressure
system. Overnight lows will be warmer than last night due to clouds,
rising dew points, and windy conditions. Monday still looks
unseasonably warm with highs in the mid-60s to low 70s.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA may develop on Monday afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front, but the best opportunity for widespread
precipitation will be on Monday night (see below).
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
Focus at the beginning of the period is severe weather threat Mon
night into Tues morning.
The NAM continues to suggest more available CAPE with this system
compared to the GFS along with a slower fropa. This slower soln has
support from the ECMWF/local WRF, while the GFS/GEM are in better
agreement. Have kept cat PoPs across some portion of the CWA
overnight with fairly good coverage expected at some point.
Believe the GFS convection scheme is aiding in the lower CAPE based
on progd soundings. Still, given the 60+ kts LLJ ahead of the fnt,
TSRA that develop will pose a wind threat. Some mdl guidance suggest
TSRA developing ahead of the fnt. Believe the CAP in place shud keep
any convection suppressed ahead of the approaching cdfnt.
Focus then turns to a variety of issues on Tues. With a strong pres
gradient, expect fairly high winds/gusts, esp during the afternoon
hours as a s/w rotates around the base of the upper trof. The main
focus for these winds will be across the nrn half of the CWA. The
GFS suggests mixing much higher, to around 600mb, than other
operational guidance. This wud suggest much higher gusts than are
currently forecast. For now, have taken a middle of the road trend,
which is close to the local WRF. Will need to continue to monitor
winds for Tues with an Advisory being possible. With much drier air
advecting into the region, will also need to monitor fire wx
concerns. Winds and low RH conditions are met for nrn and wrn
portions of the CWA. The only question remaining is fuel moisture.
Granted, in these setups, fuel moisture drops quickly, but with the
RA expected Mon night, will hold off on a Watch for now. Another
focus will be max temps on Tues. Have trended warmer, but if deeper
mixing does occur, going forecast is not warm enuf.
Looking into the extd, have capped PoPs Thurs afternoon/evening due
to a large shift in mdl guidance. Mdl differences only increase
beyond and have kept PoPs in the lower chance range if not dry.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
Ceilings are expected to improve from MVFR to VFR this evening
before decreasing back to low MVFR overnight. There may be some
scattered showers across the area overnight into early Monday
morning. MVFR ceilings are expected through the day on Monday.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area
on Monday afternoon. Gusty, southerly winds will continue across
the area through the period.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Ceilings are expected to increase above 3000FT
AGL by mid evening before falling back below 2000FT AGL by late
tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected through the day on Monday.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected at the terminal
on Monday evening. Gusty, southerly winds will continue through
the period.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
805 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017
.UPDATE...
The 00Z MFL sounding indicated a moist layer near 850 mb, drying
the mid levels, and increasing moisture aloft. Confirming these
observations, IR satellite imagery displayed low level strato- cu
streaming in from the east, and scattered high cirrus clouds
pushing westward over the peninsula. Sustained winds 20-25 KT
were noted in the boundary layer. The main story tonight will
be the breezy conditions along the east coast metro and coastal
waters. For the interior, winds will decrease slightly through
early morning to around 10 mph. Short term models, including the
HRRR and Hi- Res WRF, prog sporadic light showers to move onshore
from the Atlantic through the next several hours. Slightly
increased PoP coverage inland to account for current radar
trends. Otherwise, forecast appeared on track.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 716 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with some
occasional cigs of 050-060, There still is some potential for
brief MVFR with passing SHRA if any. However, coverage of showers
is too sparse and light to include VCSH at this time. Winds will
decrease some overnight but still remain out of the east in the
10-15 kts range. Tomorrow winds increase again around 13Z-14Z
with ENE wind around 20kts with occasional gust 25-30kts.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM EST Sun Mar 5 2017/
DISCUSSION...
The 12Z MFL sounding from this morning showed sustained east
northeast winds 20-30 KT from the surface to near 850 mb and west
northwest wind aloft. Also of note, a moist layer at 850 mb was
topped by a temperature capping inversion. Latest surface analysis
indicates strong high pressure centered over Virgina, which is the
feature responsible for generating the tight surface pressure
gradient and strong easterly flow. The highest wind speeds have
occurred along the immediate east coast metro region, where gusts
from 30 to 40 have been common. Further inland, surface friction
has kept winds mainly below 30 mph. GOES-16 IR satellite imagery
continues to show bands of low clouds streaming east to west
across the area. Hi-Res models, including the HRRR and WRF prog
isolated showers to persist through this evening and into tonight,
affecting the east coast metro, typical of an easterly flow
pattern. However, not expecting much in the way of accumulation as
forecast PWAT values remain below 1 inch. On Monday, as the
aforementioned surface high edges east and out over the open mid-
Atlantic ocean, winds will shift to from east northeast to east
and remain breezy. Again, the strongest winds are forecast right
along the immediate east coast and slightly weaker across the
interior. Expect maximum temperatures Monday in the mid 70s along
the eastern peninsula and near 80 degrees further west, a few
degrees cooler than normal for this time of year. Tuesday, as
surface high pressure continues it eastward journey, away from the
CONUS, surface pressure gradients will begin to ease. This should
translate to slightly weaker winds and a shift to the east
southeast direction. High pressure aloft building over the area,
will generate warming conditions with maximum temperatures near
80 along the east coast and lower 80s to the west. Weak
instability and modest moisture in the lower levels will lead a
slight chance of showers along the eastern portion of the
peninsula through the period.
Mid to late next week: Winds should decrease significantly on
Wednesday, as surface pressure gradients weaken. With high
pressure ridging dominating the synoptic weather pattern, maximum
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be allowed to climb back
into the low to mid 80s. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to hint
at another cold front approaching the area by Wednesday
night/Thursday. However, this front appears to be rather weak by
the time it crosses our CWA.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all local waters...
Wind gusts to gale force possible for offshore Gulf and Atlantic
waters...
Strong high pressure to the north will allow for 20-30 knot winds to
continue across the local waters today, with the flow gradually
veering from easterly to southeasterly with time. Gusts to gale
force will be possible through tonight for the offshore Gulf and
especially offshore Atlantic waters. Seas will be 5-7 feet in
the offshore Gulf waters, and 7-11 feet in the Atlantic, highest
in the Gulf Stream. Winds and seas will gradually decrease for the
Gulf waters Tuesday morning and Atlantic waters late Tuesday.
BEACH FORECAST... A High Risk of rip currents for the Atlantic
beaches will continue through at least Tuesday evening with
continued strong onshore flow and rough surf. &&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 67 76 68 79 / 20 20 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 68 76 69 78 / 20 20 20 20
Miami 67 77 68 80 / 20 20 20 20
Naples 59 80 61 82 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651-
670-671.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ610.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.
&&
UPDATE...27/JT
DISCUSSION...27/JT
MARINE...27/JT
AVIATION...52/PS
BEACH FORECAST...27/JT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
603 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
Warm and moist air continues streaming in from the Gulf this
afternoon as dewpoints have climbed into the upper 40s and even a
dew sites have topped 50 degree dewpoints. There is quite a
difference in temperatures across our forecast area this afternoon
with far western MN observing temps in the mid 60s under sunny
skies, while western WI has been pinned under overcast stratus with
temps held in the 40s.
Stratus is quickly expanding from south central MN through the
metro. This trend will only continue this evening as expect further
expansion of the ceilings to the west tonight. Continued to
advertise fog and drizzle overnight as dewpoints in the mid 40s to
50 degrees and weak lift under the inversion try to produce drizzle.
Lows tonight will obviously be very warm for this time of year
given the very high dew points advancing into our area behind the
warm front associated with the developing low pressure system in
Montana.
Much of the same will be the case tomorrow morning as we remain
socked in the warm/moist sector of this system. This will certainly
bare watching as the cloud cover/fog will bare impact on tomorrow`s
highs (which are expected to exceed 60 degrees across most of the
area), and the potential for thunderstorms along the cold front
late in the day and tomorrow evening.
During the day tomorrow, still anticipate showers moving through
but without a focused starting point and broad lift across the area,
kept the pops fairly broad and limited in the chance category
until after 18Z. The deepening surface low will be pushing east
across southern North Dakota tomorrow afternoon. The threat for
thunder exists tomorrow afternoon, mainly in eastern MN. However,
the front looks to have slowed a little bit from the previous
forecast.
So, the long term section below will delve more into the details of
the thunder/severe potential along the cold front.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
Although the tail end of the long term period could become somewhat
busy with snow (or possibly mixed precipitation) chances, the
guidance remains abysmal in terms of run to run consistency and
agreement between deterministic runs and ensemble members. So,
focused primarily on the beginning of the long term, which will
certainly be busy given chances for thunderstorms and perhaps some
severe weather Monday evening along with very strong winds from then
into Tuesday night.
The guidance has continued to slow down the progression of Monday`s
system, and most solutions now delay the cold frontal passage until
the evening hours over the central and eastern portion of the area.
That slower timing could allow for thunderstorm development a bit
west of I-35 during the late afternoon, with some potential for
severe weather as it races east through early evening. Instability
will be limited, and much will depend on when we see thinning of
cloud cover and/or breaks to get additional insolation and heating.
The dry slot associated with the large scale system does look to
precede the arrival of the surface front, and most of the guidance
allows for some clearing by evening from south central Minnesota
into portions of Wisconsin. Even without clearing, advection alone
will get temperatures into the 60s across much of the area. Best
guess is that we`ll see MLCAPE values from 250-750 J/Kg ahead of the
front in the early evening. Forecast sounding indicate a good
portion of this will be in the 0-3km layer. Not surprisingly, shear
will be abundant, both low-level and deep layer. With 0-3 km shear
on the order of 40-60 kt, oriented fairly perpendicular to storm
motion, there could certainly be a wind threat with any storms that
develop. The environment could also support low-topped supercells
for a brief period of time, so cannot rule out the possibility of a
short-lived weak tornado. Regardless of storm development and severe
potential, we should see a burst of strong winds behind the front.
These should calm down some overnight, allow it will certainly
remain fairly windy.
The strongest widespread winds still appear to be most likely on
Tuesday, as we see extremely deep mixing from late morning into
early evening. The GFS and NAM both suggest mixing well into the
layer of 50+ kt winds, and some CAM solutions are now beginning to
show this sort of gust potential. A high wind watch seems warranted
from late morning Tuesday into Tuesday evening, particularly across
the typically more windy western and southern areas. Much of the
remainder of the area will likely need a wind advisory as things get
closer in time, but since these locations could see winds exceed
warning criteria a watch seems prudent.
We`ll slowly see winds calm down Tuesday night and Wednesday as the
system moves away from the region. From Thursday through the
remainder of the forecast period there are PoPs for much of the
time, but very little confidence in the details of where and exactly
when the best chances for precipitation will be. As mentioned
earlier, solutions have been bouncing around quite a bit from
Thursday onward, and the spread apparent in the ensembles suggests
there is little point in trying to pick a favorite, unless you want
to wish-cast a snow storm. For the most part, however, whatever
precipitation we see during that time, looks like it would be all or
mostly snow given the forecast temperature profiles from the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017
CIGS are mainly VFR to start, with main sub-VFR cloud field now
crossing I-80 in central IA. Given strong low level wind fields,
these clouds will not take long in getting up here and delayed
arrival of MVFR CIGS to closer to a GFSlamp timing. Still expect
CIGS to drop tonight, but IFR and lower cigs are currently way
down in the OKC/DFW areas, so continued to be more optimistic than
the HRRR with cloud heights. Though can`t rule out some dz/-ra
tonight through the morning, moisture depth just doesn`t look deep
enough to warrant a precip mention, so kept terminals dry. Best
chance for rain looks to come along the cold front that will be
blasting across MN tomorrow afternoon. 18z hi-res NAM reflectivity
isn`t too far off from what we were thinking for line of TSRA
development Mon afternoon. Behind this front, SW winds will be
humming when looking at forecast soundings from the NAM, so really
boosted wind speeds at the end of the TAF periods for RWF and
MSP.
KMSP...Confidence is low on precip potential late tonight through
Monday morning, hence it`s removal from the 00z TAF. Our greatest
window for DZ/-RA looks to be between 8z and 15z. Front looks to
come through MSP right around 00z, with thunderstorms certainly
possible as it comes through, so added the prob30 for TSRA with
that in mind. Winds look strong Monday night through Tuesday
behind the front, with significant cross wind issues looking
likely during this period.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR and very windy. Winds W 30G45kts.
Wed...VFR. Winds WNW 10-15kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds NE 5-10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-067-073>075-082-083-091-092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
732 PM MST Sun Mar 5 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 719 PM MST Sun Mar 5 2017
Updated to end red flag warning for this evening. Also made some
changes to the High Wind Warning, adding lower elevations of
Teller County beginning tonight, and the San Luis Valley for
tomorrow. For Teller County, HRRR suggests strong winds spilling
down the slopes of Pike`s Peak late tonight/early Mon morning,
with potential for strong winds in the Cheyenne Mountain area
after midnight. Winds may be lighter farther north (i.e. Woodland
Park area), though east slopes of the Ramparts will likely
approach high wind criteria at times Mon morning. For the San Luis
Valley, given 45 kt gusts at KALS earlier today and even stronger
gradient and upper level winds forecast for Mon, 50 kt plus gusts
look possible, especially late morning/early afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 322 PM MST
Sun Mar 5 2017
...Damaging Winds with High Fire Danger Southeast Mountains and
Plains...Wind Driven Snow for the Continental Divide tonight
through Monday...
Upper trof over the Great Basin will translate eastward across
Colorado tonight and Monday bringing a myriad of fire...high
wind...and snow highlights to the area. Snow has already ramped up
along the Continental Divide this afternoon...and this will continue
through Monday...as focus gradually shifts from the southwest
mountains tonight, into the central mountains on Monday. Snowfall
amounts will come up into the low end advisory numbers (around 4 to
8 inches) but with winds gusting up to 75 mph at times...the blowing
snow will be the primary concern with impacts to travel across the
high mountain passes. Winter Weather Advisories for the continental
divide will continue until 6 PM Monday...but southern areas will
probably be able to be cancelled a little sooner.
Meanwhile...Gusty winds and low relative humidity values have
resulted in Red Flag conditions across much of the southeast plains
this afternoon. Its been a little slow to materialize across the far
east plains but with a few more hours to go...most areas will likely
verify. Will maintain the current Red Flag Warning until 7 PM.
Meanwhile...upper jet is already translating in from the west with
120+kt southwesterly jet setting up across southern CO by 06z. Winds
at mtn top level will increase into the 60-70kt range...and although
there will be quite a bit of forward shear...especially towards
12z...we should still see a burst of high winds with the bora cold
front as it moves across the mountains later tonight. Already
seeing gusts up to 70 mph across some of the mountain sensors. So
have hoisted High Wind Warnings beginning at 7 PM for the southeast
mountains...spreading into the southern I-25 corridor (south of
Colorado City) and Wet Mountain valley after 11 PM...then into the
southeast plains after 6 AM. Suspect we should see some gusts up to
85 mph across the mountains...with gusts to around 60 to 65 mph
across the plains. Unfortunately with such low relative humidity
values we should see another day of critical fire weather conditions
with dangerous fire behavior and rapid rates of fire spread
possible. Thus another Red Flag Warning goes into effect at 8 AM
and continues until 7 PM on Monday.
Winds will gradually diminish Monday evening and snow will taper off
across the mountains. Tuesday will be much quieter wind-wise across
the area...though still breezy across the mountains. Conditions may
come close to critical fire weather parameters across Teller and El
Paso counties Tuesday afternoon...but it is expected to be be too
brief for any additional fire weather highlights. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 322 PM MST
Sun Mar 5 2017
There is good agreement between the models and ensembles through
the end of the week, but major differences Friday through the
weekend.
Tuesday night through Friday...zonal westerly flow is forecast
across Southern Colorado during this time period. Warm
temperatures are expected with 70s for highs across the Plains.
Overnight lows will also remain warm with 30s to 40s. A weak
wave embedded in the flow may produce isolated showers over the
Central Mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Dry
relative humidity values and light winds are expected to prevail
through Thursday. By Friday the upper pattern begins to diverge
with elevated fire weather concerns across the Plains as winds
begin to increase.
Saturday and Sunday...models are quite different as we head into
next weekend. The GFS brings a strong upper level shortwave trough
across Colorado. This would bring a much higher fire weather
concern to the area Saturday, and especially on Sunday.
Temperatures would remain warm with 60s and 70s across the region.
In addition, snow would move into the Continental Divide on
Saturday and Sunday with a cold front dropping south across the
Plains Sunday evening.
The ECMWF on the other hand is much different. It builds an upper
ridge over Utah over the weekend. It does drop a cold front south
on Saturday with cooler temperatures behind the front with 50s and
60s for highs by Sunday. This would also limit snowfall over the
mountains to isolated activity over the Central Mountains only.
The gradient across the area would also be much weaker with a
reduced risk of fire weather conditions. We will continue to
monitor the model trends over the next few days. Mozley
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 322 PM MST Sun Mar 5 2017
Southwest winds will gust to around 25-35 kts in the TAF sites
through 02z. Could see a window for low level wind shear in KCOS
starting around 02-04z and persisting until winds pick up later in
the night. As the upper jet shifts overhead...mountain top winds
will increase to around 50-60 kts sustained by around 03z. Should
see a surge in winds come down the eastern slopes into the TAF sites
overnight 08z-10z timeframe with gusts to around 30-40 kts. Wind
gusts will be a lot stronger for the mountains...with localized
gusts to around 65-75 kts. Winds will shift around from the west
Monday morning with sustained winds approaching 35 kts by afternoon
with sporadic gusts to around 50-55 kts at times.
IFR conditions will continue along the Contdvd...and should become
more widespread by this evening. Widespread LIFR conditions in SN
and BLSN will persist along the Contdvd through Monday. Wind in the
40-50 kt range with gusts to around 60-70 kts will be possible over
the higher areas. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM MST Monday for COZ069>071-
083>086-089-093>099.
Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM MST Monday for COZ222-226>237.
High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Monday for
COZ078-087-088.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MST Monday for COZ072>075-079>082.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Monday for COZ058-060-066-
068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT