Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/05/17


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1000 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic air mass accompanied by very brisk winds will bring bitterly cold wind chills to the region tonight. A significant warming trend follows, with temperatures likely back into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, along with some rain showers at times. Mainly dry but colder weather returns Wednesday night and Thursday. Forecast confidence becomes quite low Friday into next weekend, but appears a decent shot for unsettled weather at times. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 10pm update... Forecast on track for the most part. Temp decrease a little slower than previously forecast, so will adjust for that toward latest short-term guidance, but the end result is the same, so no need to adjust wind chill headlines. Otherwise, forced all POPs offshore of Cape Cod as the window of influence is generally closing at this time. Previous discussion... Tonight...Main issue over land is expected to be wind chill due to the combination of a very cold air mass, one of the coldest of this season, and a tight NW pressure gradient. Even with the wind mixing, temperatures across the northwest interior may reach 0 to 10 below and in the 0 to 10 above range across the rest of the area outside of the Cape and Islands. This is especially impressive given the lack of a snow cover. The only precipitation risk is just a slight chance of snow showers grazing the outer Cape as low level winds turn slightly more northerly. Confidence is low since the surface gradient becomes slightly more anticyclonic and subsidence may tend to inhibit band formation as far west as the Cape. Latest HRRR keeps snow bands offshore. Models depict a 35 to 40 knot low level jet across the area tonight at 925 mb. Although not all of that will mix to the surface, still expect to have gusts persisting into the 20 to 25 knot range across exposed terrain and the near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunday...This period should be dry and sunny with some moderation of temperature after a very cold start. Anticipate high temperatures to reach the upper 20s to around 30, which is still below normal for this time of year. Winds will be somewhat brisk but there will not be the gradient to support winds as strong as today. Most gusts will probably be in the 20 to 25 knot range. Sunday night...This period should be clear and dry. With a ridge of surface high pressure reaching New England, winds should become very light and allow for efficient radiational cooling. The air mass begins to moderate but that will be at least partially offset by the radiational cooling. Even colder temperatures would result if we had snow cover. Even with a lack of snow cover, we anticipate temperatures reaching 0 to 5 below across NW Massachusetts and in the 0 to 10 above range for much of the rest of interior southern New England. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highlights... * Dry Monday with moderating temperatures inland from the coast * Mild Tue/Wed with some rain showers at times * Mainly dry, but turning colder Wed night/Thu * Unsettled weather possible at times Fri into next weekend, but precipitation types/temperatures are highly uncertain Details... Monday... Still appears that high pressure will move east of southern New England during the day. With fairly light winds, expecting slightly above normal temperatures to return for most of the region. There is some question whether winds become light enough for seabreezes to develop, which would be a big deal temperature-wise along the coast. Even so, water temperatures were close to normal high air temperatures for this time of year. Monday night and Tuesday... An intensifying low pressure moves north from the Dakotas into central Canada. This track will first push a warm front past our region Monday night, leading to well above normal temperatures Tuesday. Dry weather should give way to an increasing risk for showers from late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. Depending upon the exact timing, there is still a window for a period of freezing rain or sleet late Monday night. Expecting most of the precipitation to fall as rain during Tuesday. Tuesday night and Wednesday... Cold front probably crosses the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will be the period with the greatest risk for rainfall. Dry weather will probably dominate by Wednesday afternoon, and the cold air will lag behind this front. Still thinking above normal temperatures for Wednesday. Wednesday night and Thursday... Mainly dry weather follows in the wake of a cold front, but still cannot rule out a spot rain/snow shower or two. Colder weather will return with high temperatures back to near normal levels Thursday. Friday into Next Weekend... This remains the period of lowest confidence in the forecast. It`s about this time that differences back on Wednesday amplify to the point which become significant late next week. 04/12 GFS is definitely the warmest solution, while the ECMWF solution opens the door for the possibility of some snow Saturday night. With over 100 dam spread in 500 mb heights during this time in the GEFS, lots of uncertainty remains. For now, will continue to mention a chance of rain and/or snow. It appears likely these differences will not get resolved until sometime in the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight and Sunday...High confidence. VFR expected. Only exception could be pockets of MVFR CIGS across the outer Cape, which could be grazed by ocean effect snow bands tonight. NW winds will continue to gust between 20 and 30 kt tonight, and generally gusting to 20 to 25 kt Sunday before diminishing late in the day. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday...High confidence. VFR. Late Monday night into early Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Periods of MVFR-IFR conditions likely in low clouds/fog patches and some rain showers. Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Moderate confidence. Return to mainly VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Extended the Gale Warning for Boston Harbor a few more hours. Latest observations still showed frequent gusts too close to 34 kt for comfort. Issued a Small Craft Advisory for Narragansett Bay to take the place of the expiring Gale Warning. This will be the general trend overnight: Gale Warnings downgraded to Small Craft Advisories for most of the near shore waters. Its just a question of timing. Will adjust the marine headlines overnight, as conditions dictate. Previous discussion... Winds and freezing spray remain the issues for the short term. Extended the Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay Gale Warning to 7 PM. Have continued the Gale Warning over the other waters as previously indicated. For those marine zones where the Gale Warning expires, we will need to post a Small Craft Advisory, which will probably last through much of Sunday. The Freezing Spray Advisory remains in effect tonight for most of the waters where we anticipate with fairly high confidence a number of hours of moderate freezing spray. Winds should gradually diminish Sunday. Our mixing tool suggests wind gusts over most waters 25 to 30 knots during Sunday morning and 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon before diminishing further toward sunset. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday...High confidence. Northwest wind gusts and seas diminish across the waters as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds should turn south to southwest Monday night. Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence. High pressure moving east of the waters, coupled with strong low pressure lifting well to our northwest, will result in an increasing south to southwest flow of air. Wind gusts approaching 30 kt are expected over much of this time period. A long southerly fetch should also allow for seas to build to near 10 feet across the outer southern coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories likely for most of the coastal waters. Thursday...Moderate confidence. Gusty west winds continue. Will likely need to continue Small Craft Advisories for some of the waters. && .CLIMATE... Record Lowest Max Temperatures for Sat March 4... BOS...21/1896...tied record, previous record set in 1896 PVD...23/1943 BDL...23/1943 ORH...18/2017...new record, previous record 19 degrees in 1943 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Chill Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for CTZ002>004. MA...Wind Chill Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MAZ002>005- 008>012-026. RI...Wind Chill Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for RIZ001. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ231>235- 237-250-251-254>256. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ230>235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for ANZ236. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ250-254. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Thompson NEAR TERM...Doody/Thompson SHORT TERM...Thompson LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/Thompson MARINE...Belk/Thompson CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
741 PM MST Sat Mar 4 2017 .UPDATE... Weak wave was shooting across central zones this evening and producing scattered light showers northeast of Billings. Introduced low PoPs for these locations tonight. Activity should drift northeast out of the area by midnight, but lingered a low PoP for northern Rosebud county to account for slightly slower movement. HRRR no help with this activity, but the GFS did hint at it, so followed it. Adjusted winds a touch at Livingston as winds were still gusting to 45 mph there. Winds will be on the decline tonight and this handled well in current forecast. No other changes. TWH && .SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon... Mainly dry weather can be expected into Sunday with best precip chances confined to the Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy mountains and adjacent foothills as southwest flow aloft sets up over the region. A few inches of snow are possible on southwest to west faces of the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains. An isolated shower or two is possible across the plains generally west of Billings. Gusty winds will continue along the western foothills, but should be lighter than the past couple of days. Models remain in overall agreement in an upper low and trough moving into the Pac NW and moving through the central and northern Rockies Sunday into Sunday night. Showers are progged to form along a cold front moving through the area Sunday afternoon and evening with a transition to snow showers overnight into Monday. At this time, it looks to be a quick shot with only minor accumulations. Far eastern areas toward the Dakota border will have the best chance at some accumulating snow as a surface low gets organized across the central plains. A couple inches are possible across the east with higher totals over the Bighorn Mountains. Gusty northwest winds will accompany the frontal passage and snow showers, reducing visibilities. Subsequent shifts will need to monitor for potential winter highlites. High temperatures are expected to be near 50 west to the lower 60s in the east on Sunday. Much cooler temperatures are expected for Monday behind the frontal passage with 30s to 40s for most locations. STP .LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat... Heights build Tuesday through Thursday as a quasi-zonal pattern sets up over the Northern Rockies. This will bring a warming trend with generally dry weather to the plains as downslope flow dominates. Shower chances will continue over the mountains with moisture and energy streaming in overhead from time to time. Breezy conditions should develop during the midday and afternoon hours for most areas Tuesday- Thursday as 700 mb height gradient tightens up a bit and mixing brings down the wind to the surface. Strong gap winds are possible at times Wednesday and Thursday. Models continue to prog a frontal system dropping in from the north Friday and into the weekend bringing the potential for cooler temperatures and snow. High temperatures should be in the 30s and 40s early in the work week...then climb to the 50s for Wednesday-Friday. Central areas could warm into the 60s on Thursday, with a cooling trend expected Friday and into the weekend. RMS/STP && .AVIATION... Winds will decrease this evening but still gust to 35kt at KLVM. Clouds will increase overnight with showers developing over the mountains and moving into the adjacent plains after midnight impacting KLVM and locations northeast of KBIL. VFR conditions expected with some mountain obscurations late. borsum/TWH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 038/058 030/042 026/044 031/058 039/063 037/050 028/043 12/W 32/W 11/N 11/B 11/E 23/W 33/W LVM 035/047 020/032 019/037 030/053 038/055 036/049 025/037 24/W 42/J 32/J 22/W 10/N 23/W 33/J HDN 031/061 028/043 024/044 025/060 033/063 032/051 026/045 12/W 53/W 11/N 11/B 11/B 13/W 33/W MLS 033/062 031/041 025/040 024/051 032/058 034/047 028/043 21/B 75/W 10/N 11/E 21/E 23/W 33/W 4BQ 032/064 029/041 023/040 023/057 031/063 034/052 027/045 00/B 76/W 10/N 01/B 11/B 13/W 43/W BHK 032/064 029/036 022/035 018/046 029/056 030/044 024/039 00/U 47/J 10/N 01/E 11/B 23/W 33/J SHR 031/059 027/037 020/039 022/057 032/062 034/053 027/042 01/B 65/W 11/N 11/B 11/B 13/W 33/J && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
531 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 310 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 As a long wave trough enters the U.S. via the Pacific Northwest, surface low pressure was developing in the lee of the Rockies this afternoon. In response, strong southerly flow has developed and will increase tonight and produce strong warm air advection. Yesterday morning when there were low temperatures well below zero in the northland, the 8h temperatures were around -10C. By tomorrow morning 8h temperatures are forecast to be in the signal digits above zero, and rise even more during the day. This big return of warm air will be brought into our region and a strong 50 kt low level jet. This jet will also bring an increase in moisture, but the models, especially the NAM, seems to be bringing in moisture a bit too quickly, considering that surface dewpoints were still in the 20s at mid afternoon. But by later tonight we should see a layer of stratus develop over the northland as the winds decouple and an inversion ensues. This is caught well in the condensation pressure deficit prog of the local HRRR model. The challenge for tomorrow is forecasting the dissipation of the stratus deck as the clouds will make or break the high temperature forecast. With the higher March sun angle and resulting mixing, expect the inversion to relax and give us some sunshine. If this happens later in the day temperatures will not recover and reach the forecast highs, so this is something to keep an eye on. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 The operational deterministic models and various ensembles continue to be in decent spatial and temporal agreement on the strong upper level trough and surface low that will affect much of the Upper Midwest Monday/Tuesday. The surface low is expected to track to the west of the DLH CWA, across North Dakota, and to near the Manitoba/Ontario border region Monday night. This will result in the warm sector making a strong push northward, along with associated strong wind fields and warm/moist advection. This will result in a good chance of rain and a few embedded thunderstorms beginning late Sunday night and continuing through Monday. The best chance of thunderstorms appears to be across eastern Minnesota and much of northwest Wisconsin Monday afternoon and Monday evening along and ahead of the strong eastward surge on the cold front. As is typical this time of year with cold temps aloft, a few of the stronger updrafts could briefly produce some small hail and perhaps some gusty winds, but the risk of any severe storms appears exceptionally low this far north. Enough low level instability and moisture wraps around to produce some showers across mainly the northern CWA Monday night and Tuesday, with a fairly steep gradient from north to south due to moisture availability. Rain should also rapidly change to snow as much colder air wraps around the south side of the closing off mid level low and interacts with the TROWAL region, and this could result in a few inches of new snow Monday night/Tuesday across the northern CWA. Ridging builds in for Wednesday, and is expected to result in the coldest day of the week. We have lowered the min temps a tad from guidance during the mid week period, especially across the north. Thereafter, confidence is much lower as the various model solutions diverge beyond mid week, and we have stayed very close to the consensus guidance for now during this time period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 VFR at the start of the forecast with strong warm advection underway and plenty of cirrus comes with it. All model forecast soundings are pointing toward MVFR ceilings developing between 03Z and 06Z at all terminals, with patchy IFR. With plenty of dry air in the low levels, confidence on this occurring is low. Best spot to see MVFR ceilings is HYR where some of these ceilings are just off to the southeast. Mention of LLWS still looks good for tonight. Ceilings should improve to VFR by mid afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 28 49 40 51 / 10 10 30 60 INL 30 52 37 51 / 10 0 20 60 BRD 32 57 44 58 / 0 0 20 50 HYR 31 55 45 57 / 0 10 40 60 ASX 29 55 41 57 / 0 10 40 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLC LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...GSF
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
853 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 .UPDATE... Mostly light shower activity across the eastern two-thirds of the area as of this writing. Best chances for rain for the rest of this evening into Sunday morning are expected east of I-35 and coastal plains. An upper level trough currently over west Texas is forecast to push across the area late this evening into Sunday morning and interact with plenty moisture pushing to the north out of the Gulf. Drying conditions are expected from west to east as the upper level trough moves east of the area Sunday. Adjusted weather grids for Sunday to show an early drying trend than previous forecast. Updated zones product and sent several minutes ago a PNS with the past 12 hours rainfall reports. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017/ AVIATION.../00Z Update/ Upper level trof and associated precipitation continues to move east across the area. The back edge of the light to moderate rainfall is currently along I-35 and continuing to shift east. Areas of light to moderate rain are possible along with drizzle and fog into the overnight hours through early Sunday morning. Currently all locations are reporting IFR conditions and these are likely to remain in place overnight. Could see periods of MVFR cigs, but greater part of the night IFR will prevail. Will see slow improvement to MVFR after 17z Sunday then to VFR after 20z. At the 30 hour TAF sites will see a return of the MVFR cigs around 03z. Winds will be easterly at 5-10 knots tonight then becoming S/SE at 7-12 knots. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)... Throughout the day thus far...rainfall rates associated with the widespread shower activity has remained light to moderate. Instantaneous rainfall rates have peaked at about a half inch per hour thus far this afternoon. VAD wind profile at KDRT indicates a southwest wind flow at 8kft and according to RAP forecast soundings, should feed drier mid level air into the western CWA and continue dissipating the rain shield from the Rio Grande eastward. TTU-WRF/HRRR/NMM/ARW all agree that the rain shield should continue to lessen in coverage out west and while upper level support from the passing shortwave pushes east, will shift the rain area east of the I-35 corridor around 00Z. As a result, have stepped down the PoP chances overnight out west and focused the higher PoPs to the east. Most rain should be completed in the CWA by 18Z tomorrow other than areas in the extreme eastern zones. Additional rainfall amounts between now and 12Z tomorrow morning will be around 1-2 inches south of the I-10 corridor and east of the I-35 corridor with areas north and west will see generally less than an inch. LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... A rich moisture environment will continue for the region over the next several days and allow for slight chance PoPs through Monday. A cold front passage on Tuesday will up rain chances from the northern and eastern zones again before clearing overnight and cooling temperatures back into the low 70s Wednesday and Thursday. A quick warm up is expected come Friday and into the weekend and model guidance is advertising low to mid 80s for KAUS by Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 57 70 62 80 65 / 90 40 10 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 57 70 62 80 66 / 100 40 10 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 57 71 61 80 65 / 90 30 10 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 55 66 60 77 61 / 90 20 10 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 56 74 58 81 60 / 30 - - 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 56 67 61 78 64 / 90 40 10 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 57 72 60 80 64 / 80 10 10 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 58 70 62 80 66 / 100 30 10 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 59 70 64 81 67 / 100 50 10 10 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 57 71 62 80 65 / 90 20 10 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 59 73 62 80 66 / 90 20 10 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...10 Synoptic/Grids...17 Public Service/Data Collection...Williams
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
702 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 700 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 With winds decreasing and relative humidity levels improving this evening, went ahead and allowed the red flag warning to expire as scheduled. Otherwise, the fire weather watch for both tomorrow and Monday remains in tact. No additional changes necessary to previous forecast at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 445 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Apologize for the delay and briefer-than-usual product today, but for our coverage area (CWA) the fire weather situation for these next 4-5 days (including this afternoon) may be the most serious stretch of fire weather/danger this forecaster has seen in the past 5+ years, and considerable time was spent trying to pin down wind/relative humidity (RH) details, coordinate Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches etc. It is not very unusual for our CWA to see perhaps two (maybe rarely 3) consecutive days of fire weather headlines, but the potential exists here (counting today) for at least 4 days in a row, with the overall-most serious combo of strong winds/low RH looking to be Monday and Tuesday. From this point forward, will defer all discussion of fire weather issues to the separate Fire Weather section below. Glossing over the current/recent weather scene: High temperatures have slightly exceeded expectations this afternoon with most areas reaching the 70s, despite a bit more high cloud cover than anticipated especially over northern zones. In the mid- upper levels, broad low amplitude ridging prevails. A decent lee trough and deep mixing is driving the south winds with widespread gusts over 30 MPH in all but the far northern/western CWA. Now briefly mentioning forecast expectations through these next 24 hours... This evening/tonight: Winds die down to more so 10-15 MPH around sunset, but will pick up again somewhat later this evening as some low level jet induced mixing kicks in. With slowly-increasing low level moisture, there could be an area of low stratus that perhaps invades parts of the eastern CWA, but most of these should slide just off to our east. Even if the low stratus misses us, some patchy fog cannot be ruled out especially in central areas as winds lighten again toward sunrise. Low temps range from near-30 far west/northwest to upper 40s far east/southeast, a decent gradient. Sunday daytime: Expect at least mostly cloudy skies unless any low stratus in the east hangs around for part of the morning before mixing eastward out of the area. In many ways, similar to today but not quite as windy overall and with higher dewpoint/humidity levels especially near/east of Highway 281. High temps aimed into at least low 70s all areas, and upper 70s far southwest. Sunday night: This will be a windy night out of the south(by overnight standards) as a strong low pressure system approaches. The NAM models suggests some spotty drizzle in our east, but have left this out for now as confidence is low. Extremely mild low temps aimed into the mid-40s to low-50s range most areas. .LONG TERM...(Monday daytime through Saturday) Issued at 445 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 General overview: Not surprisingly given all the Fire Weather talk, the vast majority of the forecast through these 6 days is dry/void of precip chances and continues a prolonged stretch of above normal temperatures. By Day 7 (next Saturday), however, there are now some small precip chances (PoPs) mainly for rain showers in the forecast, although a few wet snowflakes may not be out of the question in the overnight/early morning. Also, there is some uncertainty in temps by next Saturday, as although the official forecast calls for highs in the 50s/60s, at least one model (ECMWF) suggests we could be cooler in the 40s. Many details to work out here. Briefly covering some daily details... Monday: A potentially serious fire weather situation with strong west- northwest winds and RH 10-20 percent, even despite what could be slowly falling afternoon temps behind a strong cold front/dryline. have continued to keep any shower/thunderstorm chances out of our CWA, but it could be a close call with some models firing them up within only 50-100 miles east of our eastern border. Tuesday: Cooler and not quite as windy as Monday, but still a bad fire weather setup despite highs only in the 50s. Wednesday-Thursday: Broad ridging looks to prevail with southerly breezes and temps rebounding back into the 60s Wednesday and 70s Thursday. Friday-Saturday: Kept the Friday daytime forecast dry, but various low chances for rain showers enter the picture for parts of the CWA Friday night into Saturday, and perhaps a few wet snowflakes at night/during morning as the next low pressure system arrives. As mentioned above, plenty of uncertainty in Saturday`s temps, which may not be as warm as we`re currently advertising. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 540 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Gusty southerly winds are expected to diminish some over the next few hours...and as they do...expect LLWS to increase by mid to late evening. Expect southerly winds to remain strong aloft...with model soundings indicating around 50KTS between 1500-2000FT AGL. This wind shear should diminish by early Sunday morning when focus shifts to stratus and the potential for some fog at the terminals. HRRR is indicating dense fog could develop by 12Z, but at this time...opted to only include MVFR VSBYs for several hours during the early morning. By mid morning, winds will once again increase and become gusty out of the south with gusts to 25 KTS possible at both terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 445 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 As mentioned in the opening paragraph above, at least in terms of prolonged, multi-day fire weather threats, these four days (including today) are a pretty serious fire weather threat for our CWA. Briefly covering each day`s situation: Late this afternoon: A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for a few more hours for roughly 2/3 of the CWA, especially those areas south of a line from Miller-York (including KS counties). As expected in in an "update" discussion earlier today, a critical combo of RH/wind speeds did in fact jump several counties north of original expectations from preceding shift. At least briefly critical conditions are likely affecting counties outside the ongoing warning, but in general most of these other counties should fall slightly short of meeting the 3+ hour aspect of Warning criteria. Sunday: Fortunately for much of the CWA, especially the eastern half, increased dewpoints/RH should keep serious fire weather issues at bay. However, much of the western half is expected to see at least "near-critical" parameters, with our far southwest (Furnas/Harlan/Rooks/Phillips) most favored to at least marginally breach critical levels. As a result, these 4 counties have been assigned a Fire Weather Watch. Monday-Tuesday: Both of these afternoons are looking fairly serious for fire weather/danger within the CWA, thanks in large part to stronger west-northwest winds which especially on Monday could feature sustained speeds of 30+ MPH and gusts to around 45 MPH. As a result, a CWA-wide Fire Weather Watch is already out for Monday. In all reality, Tuesday afternoon could probably justify a Watch already as well, but with this still being 72 hours away and so much else going on headline-wise before then, opted to hold off on any Tuesday fire weather headlines for now. Wednesday: At least for now, fire conditions on this day do not look nearly as "bad" as the preceding two days, but at least a "near-critical" combo of wind/RH is possible. Closing with a quick review of our local fire weather thresholds: "Critical" means the 3+ hour overlap of relative humidity (RH) of 20- percent-or-lower and sustained winds/gusts of 20+MPH/25+MPH (in the presence of sufficiently-dry vegetation/fuels). "Near-critical" means the overlap of 25-percent-or-lower RH and sustained winds/gusts of 15+MPH/20+MPH. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 445 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Although currently/officially expected to fall just short, it could be a close call with record highs on Sunday afternoon at our two primary climate sites. The details are as follows... Record high temperatures for March 5th (Sunday)... Grand Island: 78 degrees, set in 1978 Hastings: 75 degrees, set in 2009, 1950 & 1910 The current forecast high temperature for both Grand Island and Hastings is 72 degrees. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for NEZ082-083. KS...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for KSZ005-017. && $$ UPDATE...Rossi SHORT TERM...Pfannkuch LONG TERM...Pfannkuch AVIATION...Rossi FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch CLIMATE...Pfannkuch
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
919 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 918 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Warm front was located from central Iowa into central Illinois at mid evening with southerly winds staying up over the area caused by a tight pressure gradient. Current temperatures are running above normal highs for this date, and have only made minor adjustments to going forecast lows. GOES-16 imagery is showing low clouds moving northward in several channels into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The RAP and HRRR show these low clouds moving into central and northeast Missouri later tonight. Britt && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 404 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Quiet weather is expected tonight after gusty southwest to west winds diminish after sunset. Overnight lows should be 10-15 degrees warmer than last night. Another unusually warm March day is expected on Sunday, but increasing cloud cover may keep highs slightly cooler than they were on Saturday. 42 .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Next Saturday) Issued at 404 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Not a lot of changes to the prev forecast overall. Trended aoa the warmer guidance for Sun night thru Mon ahead of the cdfnt. Raised PoPs Mon night with somewhat better agreement in timing of precip. Not much has changed with this system. Limited moisture return will limit amount of CAPE across the area. The cdfnt, and associated precip, will push thru the area Mon night and perhaps linger into Tues morning after sunrise. However, even the slowest NAM soln suggests precip exiting our ern/sern counties by 12z Tues. Sfc ridge will build into the area behind the fnt bringing a brief cool down, tho still fairly warm max temps for this time of year. The next wrmfnt will lift nwd thru the area on Thurs. The next upper trof will approach the region late next week into the weekend. Have capped PoPs at high chance range for now with differences among guidance. Do not have a lot of confidence in the GFS soln for the s/w and associated sfc low as it seems overdeveloped. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 548 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Dry and VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the period. Winds will be out of the south and will gust into the 20-26kt range during the day on Sunday. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be out of the south and will gust to around 22kts during the day on Sunday. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
550 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 A fairly quiet day today with mostly clear skies across the region. Southeast winds continue to be brisk as we remain between a strong high over the northern Great Lakes, and a trough of low pressure across Montana. The short term period looks dry locally, but the tough part of this forecast is the cloud cover for tomorrow. The GFS/NAM are just some of the guidance that wants to saturate the lower atmosphere very quickly. This response makes sense as winds turn more southerly tonight and surface dew points rise into the 30s. This also means overnight lows will likely be above freezing for much of southern MN and west central WI. The stratus building across Oklahoma this afternoon is expected to advance northward through the night. There are questions though of how far west that cloud cover will extend by the time it reaches the Upper Midwest. My concern is the models over-emphasizing the dew point surge on the cloud cover as 925mb moisture explodes across this region this evening. I find the HRRR/ECMWF more trustworthy in this case with sky for tomorrow morning and through the day, which keeps much of western MN under partly cloudy skies. Expect stratus east of there, which will make for a big difference in daytime highs tomorrow. Highest confidence in cloud cover is from Albert Lea through Eau Claire. Expect highs to reach the 60s in western MN, while western WI remains about 10 degrees cooler given the current snowpack and cloud cover tomorrow. Southerly winds of 10-15 MPH with gusts to 20 MPH are expected. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Things get busier quickly as we head into the longer term, then the guidance quickly becomes clueless in terms of forecast confidence toward the end of the longer term. There is reasonable agreement with the main system of concern, which is a strong surface low which will take shape over the High Plains Sunday evening then quickly intensify as it moves northeast to near the Minnesota/Canada border by Monday evening. There are some minor differences in the position of the surface low and timing of the cold front across our area, but things are in much better agreement than a day or two ago. The ECMWF is by far the slowest of the deterministic solutions with the front, so its forecast is washed out to some degree by blending guidance from the GFS, Canadian, and NAM. Will bring some PoPs into the area overnight Sunday night then shift them eastward through the day on Monday into Monday night. The best chance for precipitation still looks to be over the eastern portion of the forecast area, as it gets the greatest moisture return before the arrival of the forcing associated with the cold front and upper short wave. Thunder still looks to be a possibility over the central and eastern portion of the area Monday into Monday evening, and included that possibility across an area fairly consistent with what is shown by the SREF probability of thunder guidance. It`s a bit too early to say if there is much potential for severe weather, but cannot rule it out given the forecast wind fields, even if instability is marginal. Large scale strong winds will arrive behind the front, and look to increase further on Tuesday and continued cold advection helps to further destabilize low-level lapse rates and allow for strong winds aloft to mix to the surface. Continued to mention sustained winds above 30 mph across the typically windier locations on Tuesday, with gusts near 50. Some of the guidance suggests even greater wind potential, so will try to refine things as we get closer in time. After the Monday system, confidence in the forecast specifics wane as the week progresses given the disparity of solutions from the deterministic guidance and the absurd amount of spread in the ensemble solutions. Included a chance for some light precipitation Wednesday afternoon/evening across the north and east as we see a week short wave trough embedded in northwest flow move through the area. Another shot as some precipitation looks to move through later Thursday into Friday as a weak surface low track from the northern Rockies toward the Great Lakes. However, by this point the guidance is quite a bit different in position and timing of things, with the ECMWF quite a bit farther south in comparison to most other guidance. As a result, the ECMWF still drags more cold air south into our area by Saturday as it begins to develop another surface low over the southern Plains. However, it should be noted that the ECMWF isn`t as bullish with the cold air as in previous runs. Wind up mentioning some chance PoPs for Saturday, but if the baroclinic zone is shunted as far south as the ECMWF indicates then it may wind up cool and dry. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2017 Stratus over WI is expected to continue riding southeast low level winds to the northwest toward the arrowhead. Only location that may get into it is EAU. Even if EAU sees MVFR cigs, expect them to clear out by 6z as they continue to head toward Duluth. After that, we wait on where stratus currently coming out of Oklahoma ends up tomorrow. AXN is the only terminal that we have high confidence in saying they will not see MVFR stratus Sunday, with MVFR chances increasing as you go east, with it almost looking certain by Sunday morning in EAU. Followed a GFSlamp depiction for these cigs for now, with them coming up across RST/EAU, but remaining east of the rest of the terminals. Cigs really do not look to tank everywhere else until Sunday evening when 50 degree dewpoints begin nosing into southern MN. Wind shear continues to look like a strong bet, with both strong speed and directional shear as 2k ft winds out of the south between 40 and 50 kts lay over the top of our southeast surface winds that will be sustained around 15 kts. Wind shear signal looks greatest between 8z and 14z. KMSP...Have continued to take a more optimistic track for cigs this period, holding off on MVFR cigs until Sunday evening as low levels of both the GFS and NAM look overly moist. With that said, the HRRR currently ends with low stratus slamming into MSP at 15z, so this is a lower confidence optimistic forecast, but will wait until we can get a better handle on how stratus currently over Oklahoma tracks toward this direction tonight before getting too aggressive with cigs. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...MVFR ceilings possible. Chc shra/tsra. Winds S 15G25kts bcmng SW 20G30kt. Tue...VFR and Windy. Winds W 30G40kts. Wed...VFR. Wins WNW 10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPD LONG TERM... AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
345 PM PST Sat Mar 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The weather will remain active this weekend, as a cold upper level trough begins to shift into the region. Look for snow showers primarily over southeast Washington and the central Idaho Panhandle through this evening. The threat of snow will spread across the remainder of the Inland Northwest tonight and on Sunday. More snow will be possible on Tuesday before turning wet and mild around mid week. Temperatures will warm above average Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Sunday...A complex weather situation tonight as a large low pressure system off the Washington coast sends a strong short wave into the region. Ahead of this wave...a mid level and surface boundary lingers over SE Washington into the Central Panhandle Mountains. Through this evening...attention will be on the convection that continues along this boundary. Snow rates up to 2 inches per hour have been observed under the heavy showers as low as 1500 feet. These rates are fast enough to stick on roadways and thus a winter weather advisory remains in place. The past several HRRR runs show these snow rates persisting through the evening in localized bands. Will be expanding this advisory to include the Lewiston area and Camas Prairie above 2000 feet where heavy snow showers have been observed on area cams this afternoon. Under heavy showers snow can be expected at all elevations. The next wave moves in overnight and models solutions vary greatly with qpf. The reason is the depth...and track of a surface low that develops over Oregon. As of 1 pm this low had already developed over North Central Oregon and was about 2-3mb deeper than all guidance. With a deeper low forecast leans in the direction of the GFS but with a slightly stronger solution. With the low tracking towards Moses Lake overnight easterly upslope flow and isentropic ascent into the Cascades...Wenatchee area...Waterville Plateau will produce light to moderate snow totals. The low then tracks up into the Okanogan Valley and Highlands Sunday morning with a band of wrap- around snow on the back side of the low. Will be adding these areas to the winter weather advisory beginning overnight tonight. Slight variations in the low track will impact snow totals so confidence is precise amounts is low. Elsewhere a quick shot of snow is expected with about an inch of snow accumulation...except 1-3 inches of additional snow for the Camas Prairie and Central Panhandle Mountains with added upslope flow. Once this low exits showers linger into Sunday afternoon due to steep lapse rates that result from daytime heating and a very cold atmosphere with 500mb temps down to -38C. Soundings continue to support snow or graupel out of these showers. JW Sunday night through Monday Night: The Inland Northwest will be under a cold and unstable upper level trough of lower pressure. Mid level lapse rates will be very unstable Sunday night and Monday at around 8.5 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer. Models show the center of the upper level low pushing across Sunday night. The associated vorticity maximum will produce some lift and looks to track mainly across southeast WA and into the Central Panhandle Mtns. Southwesterly flow will also result in favorable orographics across the Northeast Mtns and in the ID Panhandle. The vorticity maximum that tracks across will be weak with orographics likely playing a more dominant role. With how unstable the atmosphere will be, it will not take much mechanical lift to get air parcels to lift freely up in the atmosphere. A strong convective component will open the door for bursts of heavy snow showers and potentially some lightning for the afternoon on Monday. Lifted condensation levels will be cold in this air mass, so it will be tough to get much charge separation but a few lightning strikes is not out of the question. Expect the potential for 2 to 4 inches of snow in the Panhandle valleys. Moderate snow accumulations over Lookout and Stevens Pass with winter travel conditions will be possible as well . ...LIGHT VALLEY SNOW AND MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW ON TUESDAY... A strong warm front will move up across the region on Tuesday. All areas will start out with snow in the morning. Temperatures at 850 mbs will be between 6-7 Celsius below zero at onset of the precip. This colder air will take some time to warm up through the day with snow expected in the valleys across much of the mountain areas and the northern and eastern basin (including the Spokane Area and eastern portions of the Palouse). Surface temperatures should see some warming though now that we are in March. This will result in heavy wet snow, especially during the afternoon hours. Most valley locations that will see snow is expected to accumulate around 1 to 3 inches with local accumulations of around 4 inches in the northern mountain valleys. I lowered high temperatures a bit from what we had previously since we will see precip through the afternoon. Conversely, I also warmed the overnight low temperatures a bit for Tuesday night, since we will continue to see WAA into the region as another surface low develops southwest of Vancouver Island. Snow levels will continue to rise through the night with snow changing over to rain across the basin by the late afternoon/evening. Heavy snow will possible over the mountains. A 12-18 inches will be possible over the higher terrain of the east slopes of the northern Cascades and 5-10 inches possible over the higher terrain of the Okanogan Highlands to the ID Panhandle. /SVH Wednesday through Saturday... A continuous, steady stream of moisture flowing off the Pacific Wednesday into Thursday will bring widespread valley rain and high mountain snow. Light to moderate rain and much warmer temperatures will likely cause another meltdown of mid and low elevation snow which in the recent past has caused the following impacts: *Rising creeks and streams although no mainstem rivers are expected to flood. *Local ponding of water in areas that still have snow to melt and urban areas with clogged storm drains. *Windy conditions in the mountains and Breezy conditions across the Central Basin and Palouse Longer range models have been in pretty good agreement that anywhere from .5 to 1.0 inch of precipitation could fall in extreme eastern WA and the Idaho Panhandle Wednesday into early Friday morning. Higher amounts of precipitation are likely in the mountains with snow levels rising above 5000 feet in most areas Thursday. Models do start to diverge by Friday with how quickly the cold front will push through. The GFS being the most aggressive would shunt preciptiation to the south and cool off the region significantly by Friday. The ECMWF is less progressive allowing another wave to move out of the northwest potentially prolonging precipitation into the early weekend period. Regardless, confidence is increasing that a significant and prolonged mid to low elevation rain event will occur centering around the middle to late next week. Everyone should prepare their areas if local flooding has been an issue in similar melting scenarios from recent past. TC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: A stalled frontal boundary over SE Washington into the south Idaho Panhandle will produce numerous showers falling as a mix of rain and snow in Pullman and Lewiston this evening. This will keep the boundary layer very moist with MVFR conditions common with occasional IFR conditions at KPUW from 02Z-05Z. Some model guidance suggest these showers may reach as far north as Spokane area TAF sites in the evening but consensus gives KCOE the best chance. Still the moistening boundary layer over the palouse and low level south-southwest winds may advect enough moisture for a brief period of IFR/MVFR conditions for KGEG/KSFF this evening between 06Z-10Z. As this wave tracks north overnight into Sunday expect a 3-5 hour period of snow and lowering CIGS/visibilities near KEAT as well. Behind this wave gusty southwest winds quickly develop for KGEG/KSFF/KMWH into Sunday. TC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 28 39 24 37 24 37 / 40 80 50 70 40 100 Coeur d`Alene 27 39 24 37 23 37 / 50 80 60 80 70 100 Pullman 28 38 25 38 25 40 / 90 40 70 80 60 100 Lewiston 33 45 28 44 28 46 / 90 40 60 60 40 90 Colville 26 39 23 40 22 37 / 10 80 50 50 20 100 Sandpoint 27 37 24 36 23 35 / 40 90 70 80 70 100 Kellogg 27 35 23 33 22 34 / 90 90 80 90 90 100 Moses Lake 29 45 26 41 25 42 / 60 30 20 20 10 90 Wenatchee 28 42 25 41 24 40 / 70 30 30 30 10 100 Omak 25 42 21 40 21 38 / 50 80 30 20 10 90 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST Sunday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties- Lewiston Area. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Sunday for Idaho Palouse. WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Sunday for Northeast Blue Mountains. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon PST Sunday for East Slopes Northern Cascades. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM PST Sunday for Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon PST Sunday for Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
741 PM PST Sat Mar 4 2017 .UPDATE... Convective nature of precipitation was becoming more evident based on latest satellite and radar imagery with main band developing from San Francisco to the northern Sacramento Valley this evening with smaller bands on the west slopes of the Sierra beginning to move into the Tahoe Basin. Latest HRRR reflects these trends well and along with the 00Z NAM, suggest snow showers will continue to intensify from Alpine County northward and occasionally move into the Sierra Front late this evening and ahead of main band which will move southeast through the area mostly overnight. Heaviest and most pronounced snow should reach the Tahoe Basin between 05Z-07Z and then spill over into western NV between midnight and 4am. This front will then hang up over the central Sierra of Mono County as it awaits a secondary cold front that will finally push across Sunday morning. With the cold air in place, a secondary round of snow along the Sierra Front will bring more potential impacts for the early to mid morning period Sunday. Other than to delay weather across Mono County this evening, the forecast is on track. A couple of minor updates will be issued to reflect trends in Mono County and again later to remove the wind advisory headline on time for the Sierra Front and northern Washoe County. Hohmann && .SYNOPSIS... Winds will remain gusty this weekend as a cold front moves through the region. Heavy snow is likely for the Sierra tonight and Sunday with some snow accumulation across western Nevada north of Highway 50. Snow showers will gradually diminish through Monday but temperatures will remain below normal. High pressure returns by mid to late next week for warmer conditions forecast. A return to a wet pattern is possible next weekend. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 220 PM PST Sat Mar 4 2017/ SYNOPSIS... Gusty winds will continue this evening as a strong cold front moves into the region. Heavy snow is likely for the Sierra beginning late this afternoon through Sunday. Snow accumulation for western Nevada is likely Sunday morning north of Highway 50. Much colder Sunday with snow showers continuing with less showers on Monday. High pressure returns by mid to late next week with warmer and drier conditions forecast. A return to a wet pattern is possible next weekend. SHORT TERM... Overall, the forecast remains on track for the next 24 hours. A few changes were made, but they are more to indicate the confidence we have in the next 24 hours. WINDS: Sierra ridges are gusting to 90 mph with many valley locations seeing gusts 40 to 55 mph, in line with the forecast. There are a few higher gusts to 70 mph in wind prone areas and this will continue through the evening. All wind statements will continue through expiration. Even Lovelock/Fallon getting into the act with good mixing and there is dust coming off the Carson Sink. Added dust to the forecast for this evening there. The winds will gradually diminish some overnight, but not completely weaken. They will remain brisk tomorrow with some gusts 30-40 mph which will make for a decent wind chill. We did issue a Lake Wind Advisory for Pyramid Sunday after the Wind Advisory is set to expire. SNOW: Precip is increasing across Northwest CA and will continue to push east this evening. Everything is on track, and it now looks as if the main frontal band will occur after the snow levels will drop to the valley floors along the Sierra Front. The heaviest bands are still expected from 10 pm tonight through 10 am Sunday and shift from north to south over that time. The main change was to issue a winter weather advisory for the Sierra Front with the higher confidence in snow sticking to the roads, especially above 5000 feet. Elsewhere, a modest increase in snowfall was made for the Sierra due to the convective nature of the snowfall. Large dendrites are likely and snow rates will reach 2 inches per hour in the heavy bands. After the main front and bands move through, convective snow showers will continue Sunday with much colder temperatures, a good 20 degrees colder than today. A few more inches are possible in the Sierra. While lake effect snow would be a good possibility with 700 mb temps down to -16 C, the 700 mb winds are 40 kts, and the shear will be too much for anything organized. Snow showers will gradually wind down from south to north into Tuesday. By Monday afternoon, most snow showers should be confined north of a South Lake Tahoe to Lovelock line. Tuesday, much drier except for a small chance of showers north of Susanville and Gerlach. Temperatures will also warm up quite a bit Tuesday as 700 mb temps begin to approach the freezing mark. Winds will also diminish with just the ridges being gusty at times. Wallmann LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday... Model simulations continue to show the storm track retreating north into the Pacific Northwest midweek, supporting relatively mild conditions. Expect slightly above average afternoon temperatures (55- 65 lower valleys, 44-55 Sierra valleys) Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday night and into next weekend, model simulations continue to differ on the strength of a blocking ridge over the Aleutians as a trough drops south out of British Columbia. This has implications both with respect to how much cold air moves south into CA/NV for Friday into the weekend and also as to how much Pacific moisture gets entrained into the westerly flow pointed towards the west coast. Atmospheric river outlook tools show a weak signal for the weekend but with an increasing signal for the first half of next week. The upshot is expect a return to active winter weather Friday and this weekend with snow levels likely below pass levels but otherwise highly uncertain at this time. JCM AVIATION... Strong surface wind gusts 35-50 kts at area terminals will generally be strongest now through this evening. However for KMMH/KHTH the strongest gusts are expected just before FROPA between 06-12z tonight. For KTRK/KTVL expect a decrease in winds after the snow arrives with gusts 20-25 kts after 03z tonight. For western NV terminals the strongest gusts should also decrease somewhat after 03z but peak gusts 30-40 kts could continue through at least 12z. LLWS potential increases again tonight after midnight post-FROPA as the surface winds may decouple from the strong winds aloft. Widespread IFR conditions due to snow are likely in the Sierra after 00z this evening through Sunday. A foot of snow accumulation is likely at KTRK/KTVL during this period. Snow spreads south reaching Mammoth Lakes around 09z with up to 6 inches possible at KMMH by Sunday afternoon. As far as western NV terminals including KRNO/KCXP/KMEV, expect at least an inch or two of snow between 06Z- 12Z (10PM Saturday to 4AM Sunday) Sunday. Between 12Z/4AM and 16Z/8AM Sunday, additional snow showers could bring another couple inches but this is much more uncertain and depends where the heaviest snow showers set up. JCM && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Sunday NVZ002. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening NVZ003-005. Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday NVZ001-004. Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST Sunday NVZ003. Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Sunday for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004. CA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Sunday CAZ071-072. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening CAZ070. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Sunday CAZ073. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno