Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/03/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
916 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper disturbance will move across the region tonight into
Friday with gusty northwest winds and colder temperatures. The
cold and breezy conditions will hang on into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
9:20 PM Update...Snow showers across Southeast Aroostook county
are gradually diminishing. Some slick and snow covered roads
will likely persist in this region. Otherwise, tonight will be
cold with winds diminishing just a bit. Forecast remains on
track. Dew points were lowered a couple degrees across the
north. Otherwise, no major changes since last update.
Colder weather has arrived with gusty wnw winds which will
continue through Friday.
The latest analysis showed the cold front moving off the coast
w/the upper trof set to move through this evening. This feature
shows up well on the latest Satl WV loop. Radar showed some snow
shower activity across northern areas and this is was backed
well per the webcams and the latest run of the RAP guidance. The
Canadian GEM did a nice job in picking up the snow shower
activity. Metars and spotters reported vsbys down < 1/4 mile at
times w/winds gusting to 35 mph. Mdl sounding support the gust
potential to 35+ mph into the evening. Snow showers are expected
to wind down this evening w/some partial clearing. Across the
downeast and especially the coast, winds could gust to 40+ mph
into early evening and hence the Wind Advisory will remain in
place through 7 PM. Temps will drop off significantly overnight
reaching well into the single numbers across the northern 1/2 of
the CWA while central and downeast areas will see lower teens.
Some areas across far n and nw areas could see readings go below
0F. Winds will lead to wind chills dropping below zero by Friday
morning.
As stated above, Friday will be a colder day and continued
windy. There should be more sunshine than today as the mdl
soundings showed airmass drying out. Winds gusting to around 30
mph possible. Daytime temperatures will be below normal for
early March.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Below normal temperatures can be expected for the first weekend
of March. A 500 MB low is expectd to cross the region Friday
night and then move east on Saturday. Gusty northwest winds are
expected later Friday night and especially during Saturday, as
the low low pulls off to the east. Low temperatures Friday night
are expected to fall well below zero across the north and near
zero across much of downeast, except for the immediate coast.
The combination of the very cold temperatures and gusty
northwest winds will necessitate the issuance of wind chill
advisories for most of the forecast area Friday night into
Saturday morning, except for the immediate coast. Wind chill
warning criteria is not out of the question for far northwest
areas.
Saturday will be a blustery and bitter cold day with mostly to
partly cloudy skies expected. High temperatures are only
expected to climb to 5 to 10 above across the far north and mid
to upper teens downeast. This will result in temperatures some
20 to 25 degrees below normal for this time of year. The big
story will be the gusty northwest winds that are expected at 15
to 25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph across portions of the
region.
Saturday night will continue blustery and cold with partly cloudy
to mainly clear skies expected. Wind chill advisories may once
again be needed for northern areas.
Sunday will be a milder day but still below normal for this time
of year. As the high starts to build east, winds will diminish
somewhat, but still remain on the gusty side with mainly sunny
skies expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night will be mainly clear and cold as high pressure
builds across the region, along with light winds. The high will
move east on Monday, as a broad upper level ridge builds toward
the area through the first part of the week. A warm front is
expected to lift across the region later Monday night into
Tuesday. This will be followed by a cold front Wednesday.
Expect the chance of some light rain later Tuesday through
Wednesday with the passage of the fronts. Highs by Tuesday and
Wednesday are expected to climb to well above normal levels,
with highs in the low 40s north and mid 40s to near 50
downeast. Colder weather will return for the second half of the
week. However, the late week forecast remains quite uncertain at
this point. The 12z GFS hints at a potential clipper type
system with some snow for Thursday but this is not supported by
latest EC.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions across the northern terminals into
the evening w/some snow showers and then VFR later tonight into
Friday. Gusty nw winds will lead to some ocnl blowing snow. For
KBGR and KBHB, VFR conditions to prevail into Friday.
SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period
except, for local MVFR cigs possible across the northern sites
Saturday. Gusty northwest winds can be expected Saturday into
Saturday night.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds are coming up to near Gale force attm. Gusts
hitting 35 kts and expected to climb through the evening to
around 40 kts. Seas are running 9-10 ft which are below what
was previously expected by the local wave model. It still looks
as though seas will come up this evening into the overnight at
10-14 ft. There is a swell interaction from the sse w/periods of
9-10 seconds. Winds will drop off by early Friday morning to
sustained speeds of 20-25 kts and gusts around 30 kt.
SHORT TERM: Gale Warnings will likely be needed Friday night
into Sunday for gusty northwest winds. Freezing spray advisories
will likely be needed on Saturday. Winds will diminish below
headline criteria by early next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Duda/MCB
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...Duda/Duda
Marine...Duda/Duda
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1019 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
The roller coaster weather pattern continues in Central PA
with a shot of wintertime cold, periods of snow and below
average temperatures tonight through Saturday night, before
spring conditions and milder temperatures return for next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Wind gusts have died down over most of the area to between
10-20mph.
The low-level water vapor channel (10.7 microns) continues to
show very dry air over eastern PA where surface observation
support this with just some clear to scattered skies.
Deeper moisture extends back into the Gr Lakes under the
increasingly cyclonic flow aloft. Regional radar shows numerous
cellular snow showers back into the midwest all rotating
eastward.
The models show a short wave and cold front sweeping into
Pennsylvania overnight into tomorrow. The HRRR shows the best
chance of snow over SWRN Pa where 1 to 2 inches of snow is
produced in the more upslope flow into the higher terrain of
Somerset County. The cold air advection and strong northwesterly
flow will likely bring snow showers to the NW behind the cold
front as well. This is an anomalously chilly air mass for March
leading to a very cold and windy day Friday.
I suspect the CAMS are showing how orographically focused and
convective in nature the snow will be. Thus our guidance for
grids using non-convective allowing models is likely too wet
and has too high POPS. Most areas east of the Laurels will
likely see just flurries and a few brief snow showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
That said, most of the mesoscale models show instability and
hints that we could get some organized snow bands and perhaps an
elongated snow band Friday under the strong cold advection.
Blending high resolution guidance we got a streak in our grids.
As the HRRR forecasts evolve and the 0000 UTC tonight NCAR
ensemble run finishes we may get a handle on this potential snow
squall/band issue.
So generally cold day lots of clouds. Best chance accumulating
snow in southwest mountains with short wave then upslope. Lake
enhanced upslope in northwest and perhaps some instability squalls
in central and eastern PA.
But for most areas mostly cloudy, flurries, windy and c o l d.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Brisk and cold conditions with lingering snow showers Friday
night into early Saturday should improve by Saturday night as
a strong high pressure system/1040mb moves over the area. Min
temperatures on Sunday morning will be 10 to 20 degrees below
early March climatology with potential for sub-zero readings
over the northern tier given favorable radiational cooling and
abnormally dry airmass. Warm advection starts on Sunday with
moderating temps ahead springtime frontal system pushing east
from the Central U.S. Maximum precipitation potential based on a
blend of the NBM, WPC and EC ensemble MOS guidance is in the
Monday night - Tuesday period with model uncertainty regarding
the eastward progression of the aforementioned frontal system.
Temperatures should cool off and trend lower/toward seasonal
averages Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong gusty flow emanating from a mid level trough will keep
gusty westerly winds across the winds overnight. These gusty
winds streaming through the Laurels will bring snow showers
with periods of MVFR to IFR cigs possible at JST and MVFR
possible at AOO and BFD. Latest GOES shows increased clouds
streaming through western PA and should overspread central PA
overnight. This will bring lowering clouds to the west,
especially southwestern Pennsylvania. Light snow showers will
continue to spread across PA through tomorrow as the secondary
cold front passes through the region. There should be
improvements of any restrictions after 21Z.
Outlook...
Fri...Light snow/reduced VIS possible, mainly BFD. Some snow in
KJST and to southwest.
Sat-Mon...No sig wx expected.
Tue...Reductions possible in -SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Grumm/La Corte
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Grumm/Ceru/Evanego
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
450 PM MST Thu Mar 2 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1024 AM MST Thu Mar 2 2017
17Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated broad troughing
across central and eastern portions of the country with ridge over
west coast. At the sfc, high pressure was settling over the area.
Pressure rises and stronger than expected winds suggest a weak
frontal passage may have been obscured by this mornings decoupled
sfc winds.
Although winds a bit stronger than expected initially, they should
decrease and become light and variable overnight. A few mid clouds
may develop along H7 thermal ridge do to persistent WAA, but
shallow moisture profiles and stable conditions would keep precip
threat essentially zero. As sfc high departs...expect to see
southerly return flow develop along KS/CO border. This will likely
keep temps up a few degrees...while valleys to the west and south
cool rapidly with lighter winds and very dry air.
On Friday...dry conditions will prevail as H5 ridge shifts to the
east and nears the CWA. With the exception of some mountain
generated cirrus...expect sunny skies and warm temperatures to
prevail. With deep westerly flow think leaning on the warmer/drier
solutions are in order and pushed deterministic forecast towards
that envelope of solutions. Will briefly see a period of stronger
winds...similar to today across southern CWA as single digit
dewpoints move in from the west. Could see an hour or two with
near critical fire weather conditions...but even taking the worst
case data it appears very marginal and below confidence for a
fire weather watch.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM MST Thu Mar 2 2017
High pressure slides eastward on Saturday with flow becoming
southwesterly aloft and at the surface. Very dry air will be in
place over the entire region with the western half of the CWA
experiencing mixing ratio values in the 1.3 to 2.0 g/Kg range.
Relative humidity will fall into the lower teens and perhaps even
into the single digits in the eastern Colorado counties. Winds will
be gusty and the latest data indicates that the 850 mb wind speeds
will be in the 20 to 40 knot range with the axis of higher wind
speeds located mainly east of the CWA. Most guidance at this point
keeps the surface wind in the 10 to 15 mph range with gusts in the
20 to 25 mph range. Given the borderline nature of the situation, I
went with a fire weather watch for Saturday.
Continued warm and dry conditions will prevail on Sunday. Winds
could gust once more into the 20 to 25 mph range with RH values
falling into the single digits to lower teens. Additional fire
weather headlines may be needed for Sunday.
A cold front will push through the region early Monday. Previous
guidance suggested slight chc PoPs; however, the latest guidance has
backed off the precipitation chances with the strong likelihood of a
dry frontal passage. The post frontal air mass will be slightly
drier than the existing air mass with mixing ratios in the 0.80 to
1.33 g/kg range. Although temperatures will be slightly cooler on
Monday, we are still looking at the strong possibility of fire
weather headlines as post frontal northwest winds will be gusting to
near or just over 30 mph in the presence of RH values in the lower
teens.
Moisture values slowly rebound as we head into Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain above average but will be cooler
than the Saturday through Monday time frame. RH values during the
afternoon will be in the middle to upper teens on Tuesday and will
approach 20 percent on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 442 PM MST Thu Mar 2 2017
VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the TAF period
with mostly clear skies and light Southeast to south winds
overnight turning southwest after 17Z Friday.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for KSZ041.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
533 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017
An arctic front is backing into Ncntl Neb. The RAP has the better
handle on the front and it appears to be backing west to near hwy 83
by morning. The model sounding at KVTN would suggest fog but at the
same time midlevel frontogenesis will be underway and the cloudiness
from the fronto would limit radiational cooling. Patchy fog is in
place across some areas east of highway 83...not expecting anything
widespread.
All indications from the models are southwest winds will take hold
Friday and scour out the arctic air across Ncntl Nebraska by late
afternoon. Generally sunny skies are predicted by the models. Some
high cirrus is indicated in the GFS across Nrn Neb. Indications are
the denser cirrus emanating from the upper level disturbance near
British Columbia will remain across the Dakotas.
Temperatures tonight and Friday are blended guidance plus bias
correction for lows in the teens and 20s with highs in the 40s...
50s and 60s. Warmest readings Friday are expected south of I-80.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017
H850mb temperatures rise to 10-15C Monday and then fall back to
-5C Tuesday with the passage of a Pacific cold front Monday. The
March sun is expected to melt most or all of the snow cover across
Nrn Nebraska supporting highs mostly in the 60s to lower 70s
Saturday and Sunday.
The temperature forecast through Monday generally uses blended
guidance. The GFS high cloud procedure indicates bouts of cirrus
moving across the Rockies Saturday and Sunday and precipitable water
suggests a moisture plume moving in off the Pacific. For now the
forecast is for thin cirrus with little impact on the heating cycle.
Midlevel cloudiness associated with the passage of the Pacific cold
replaces the cirrus Monday.
All rain or snow chances Sunday night through Monday night are a
figment of the ECM. The 12z GFS and 00z GEF were dry. The 12z GEF is
dry. POPs are slight chance along and north of highway 20. The ECM
has been suggesting this for at least 2 model runs. The midlevel
frontogenesis in the model is fleeting.
Some sort of high pressure remains in control Tuesday...Wednesday
and Thursday. High temperatures moderate back into the 50s to around
60 Wednesday with caveats. The ECM suggests an arctic front would
back in Wednesday while the GFS indicates the same Thursday. WPC is
holding this front across the Dakotas which is in line with the GFS
ensemble. If WPC is correct then mild weather would continue into
Thursday and the forecast is in-line with WPC.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017
Visual flight rules expected over western Nebraska tonight into
Friday with south to southwest winds 10kts or less and some
increasing high clouds over the north through the day on Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017
RH falls to below 15 percent across the Frenchman basin and Loess
plains Friday through Sunday. The MET and MAV guidance give winds
less than 15 mph Friday suggesting conditions for fire development
would be elevated but not critical. Boundary layer winds Saturday
and Sunday are 15kt or less suggesting elevated but non-critical
conditions for fire development.
The situation Monday is more straight forward. The passage of a
Pacific cold front will increase winds to around 20 mph with gusts
to 30 mph across all of Wrn and Ncntl Neb. A fire weather watch may
needed later this weekend as the specifics of this event become
clear. The 12z GFS suggests areas along and south of I-80 would be
favorable for range land fire development.
Conditions Tuesday through Thursday remain dry with opportunities
for range fire development...especially Tuesday. Humidity falls to
around 20 during the 3 day stretch along and south of Interstate 80.
Winds Tuesday increase to 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
809 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017
.UPDATE...
IR satellite imagery shows a band of low and mid level clouds,
associated with the cold front, pressing south along the Florida
peninsula. Surface winds have all turned northwest, with the
exception of along the east coast metro region. These persistent
NW winds should keep the layer well mixed and disperse any
developing ground fog. Short range models show greatest surface
convergence and lift along the Atlantic coastal region.
In the update, trimmed back PoPs over the interior and maintained
chance PoPs over the Atlantic. Thunder was removed from tonight`s
forecast, due to the lack of any appreciable instability in the
mid levels. Otherwise, all other forecast variables appeared on
track.
&&
.AVIATION...
Front continues to approach the region with a clear band of low/mid
level clouds as supported also by surface observations upstream.
Ceilings should remain mostly VFR into the early morning hours with
an occasional MVFR ceiling that can be handled with with tempo or
amendments as needed. As main band of low level clouds approaches
the region towards sunrise, MOS guidance as well as ensemble of
ceiling forecasts suggest possibility of a few hours between that
time and mid late morning or even early afternoon of mvfr ceilings
especially from fll north on east coast and for apf but cannot be
ruled out elsewhere either. This is reflected in the forecast but
will reassess overnight and/or amend as needed. Combination of drier
air pushing in and wind profiles do no favor patchy fog formation
and vis restrictions at this time. Winds will turn wnw and north
overnight around 5-10 knots and increase to 15-20 kts and gusty
tomorrow from around mid to late morning onward all sites. Will
leave mention of vcsh overnight along east coast sites. This might
need to be extended into tomorrow but given uncertainty in the
forecast and lack of any forcing and instability with the system
will revisit overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Through Friday morning: Latest surface analysis shows a cold front
draped along central Florida with surface high pressure centered
over the Southern Plains. The approaching front created southerly
lower levels flow, which allowed both the Gulf and Atlantic sea
breezes to develop. Currently, a north to south surface boundary
exists in the eastern portion of our CWA. The most recent high res
model runs, including the HRRR and WRF ARW, show activity mainly
confined along this boundary through the rest of the evening.
Forecast SB CAPE values over the Atlantic waters and adjacent
coast are relatively unimpressive, mainly 500-800 J/KG, which
could potentially produce a thunderstorm storm or two. Thus, have
maintained a slight chance of T-Storms in the grids through
sundown. As seen on this mornings sounding, a strong temperature
inversion exists at around 700mb thus, making it difficult for
convection to grow very tall. Later tonight, as the aforementioned
front drops further south and becomes rather diffuse, flow will
turn northerly. Residual moisture and weak lift will maintain the
chance of showers over the Atlantic waters and east coast metro
region.
Friday afternoon through this weekend: Increasing northerly flow
will advect a cooler airmass over South Florida during the day
Friday. Maximum temperatures may only reach the mid to upper 70s
over a majority of the CWA, with low 80s over the southwest portion
of the peninsula. As the main band of mid and upper level clouds
associated with the front sags south, expect mostly cloudy
conditions along with the chance of light showers over the eastern
portion of the peninsula. This weekend, surface high pressure
will strengthen over the southern CONUS and meander eastward. For
South Florida, this translates into very persistent northeasterly
flow and cooler weather. Strongest winds will generally exist
along the east coast beaches, but will remain breezy elsewhere.
By late Sunday, models prog the strong surface high reaches the
Carolinas, shifting our flow to the east northeast. Maximum
temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 70s during the
afternoon, nearly 5 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Although moisture will be remain limited, a few light showers can
not be ruled out along the immediate east coast.
Early to mid next week: Winds will gradually turn east and diminish
slightly early next week, with slow rising temperatures. Models
continue to hint at another cold front possibly approaching the area
by mid to late next week.
MARINE...
A passing cold front will bring sustained northeast winds 20-30 KT
to the water from Friday morning through Monday morning. Seas will
also build during this time to 7 to 12 feet in the Atlantic,
highest along the Gulf Stream, and 6 to 8 feet in the Gulf. Refer
to the small craft advisory for more details. Northeast flow will
bring a slight chance of showers to the Atlantic waters through
the period, Winds and waves should begin to decrease by mid day
Monday
BEACH FORECAST... The risk for rip currents on Atlantic beaches
will rapidly increase on Friday behind a cold front. Persistent
gusty northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph will likely lead to a high
risk of rip currents on Atlantic beaches, along with increased
surf, this weekend and possibly into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 69 77 66 75 / 40 40 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 69 79 66 75 / 30 40 20 10
Miami 69 80 66 76 / 20 40 20 10
Naples 65 80 58 79 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Monday for
AMZ630-650-651-670-671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Monday for
GMZ656-657-676.
&&
UPDATE...27/JT
DISCUSSION...27/JT
MARINE...27/JT
AVIATION...52/PS
BEACH FORECAST...27/JT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
958 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2017
.DISCUSSION...
A reinforcing shot of cold air will move in tonight with a cold
front. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis
indicates a broad upper level trough from the Northern Plains
eastward to the Northeastern U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast
to rotate through the Central and Southern Appalachians late
tonight into early tomorrow. This trough along with the surface
front will provide enough lift for a few light snow
showers/flurries late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Model
soundings indicate a brief period of low level saturation around
200-250 mb deep across NE TN and SW VA centered around 12z. PW
values increase to around 0.3 inches. Due to this, there was
enough evidence to increase PoPs some late tonight into early
tomorrow morning. Additionally, stretched them a bit further to
the south with a few flurries possible as far south as Knoxville.
However, the lack of moisture and the brief window will lead to
trace amounts up to half an inch in the higher elevations in SW VA
and extreme NE TN. These values are below thresholds for any
winter weather products. Additionally, will forgo an SPS with
amounts more than a dusting being limited to the aforementioned
higher elevations.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 55 30 60 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 50 27 55 / 10 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 33 50 26 56 / 10 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 47 22 51 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
MA
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017
The upper level flow across the plains will continue to be
northwesterly aloft. A shorter wave length upper trough was embedded
within the northwesterly flow aloft across IA and eastern NE this
afternoon and will dig southeast into the OH river valley on Friday.
A weak surface front was pushing southeast of the CWA at 2 PM, and
temperatures behind the front have remained steady in the mid 50s
across east central KS with lower 50s across north central KS.
Tonight, expect clear skies as a surface ridge of high pressure
builds southeast across extreme eastern KS and MO.
Friday, the surface ridge of high pressure will shift southeast
across the lower MS river valley. Southerly winds increase through
the day, as a pressure gradient tightens between the surface ridge
to our east and a deepening lee surface trough across the central
high plains. Highs across north central KS will reach the lower 60s
with mid 50s across northeast KS.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017
Saturday an upper level trough will approach the Pacific Northwest
from the eastern Pacific. This will cause a ridge to build across
the Central Plains with heights rising through the day. pressure
gradient will increase as low pressure deepens in the Western High
Plains. Gusty south to southwest winds will user in low level
moisture through the day with dew points gradually rising.
Temperatures warm into the upper 60s across the area. Sunday morning
low level moisture increases across eastern Kansas and some light
rain or sprinkles during the morning hours within the moisture axis.
Still some model differences with respect to the upper trough moving
across the Plains Monday and Monday night. Timing differences with
the speed of the dryline and front moving across eastern Kansas.
Best chances for any thunderstorms looks to be in the far eastern
counties or off into Missouri and Arkansas. Shear along with some
instability and some steepening lapse rates so there is some
potential for a few severe storms. Monday high temperatures will
warm into the 70s dry air behind the dryline will cause afternoon
relative humidity to drop into the 15 to 25 percent range so very
high fire danger will be likely on Monday. Dry northwest to a nearly
zonal flow is expected Tuesday through next Thursday. Each afternoon
will have low relative humidity, however lighter winds are expected
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs mainly in the 60s are expected for the
latter half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017
Still a wind forecast as northwesterly winds lighten up and veer
around to southeasterly by morning. Speeds pick up quickly and
become gusty and more southerly for the afternoon hours. LLWS may
become an issue just beyond this forecast period when surface winds
diminish next evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017
The RAP model this morning showed deeper mixing occurring across
northeast and east central KS which would have caused dewpoints to
drop into the teens. However, the mixing behind the front was not as
deep as the RAP and the 12Z NAM. It is still possible that we may
mix a bit deeper between 3 and 5 PM, so I`ll keep the the red flag
warning going through 6 PM. Wind gusts have generally been in the 25
to 35 MPH range across the red flag warning area of northeast and
east central KS.
Friday, the wind speeds will increase 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 25
to 30 MPH. The mixing does not looks as deep as an EML overspreads
eastern KS. Afternoon dewpoints will remain in the lower to mid 20s
and with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s, minimum RHs will only
drop into the 23 to 30 percent range. Expect a very high fire danger
across much of north central and east central KS Friday afternoon.
Very high fire danger is again possible on Saturday with stronger
winds from the south around 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon with
gusts over 30 mph. Low level moisture gradually increases which
will keep afternoon RH in the 25 to 30 percent range.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ011-012-023-
024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67
FIRE WEATHER...Gargan/53