Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/20/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
939 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Dense fog continues over northwest North Dakota per latest webcams and observations. Latest HRRR tries to spread the dense fog east but so far it has been a bit reluctant to do so and visibilities further east have been holding above a couple miles so far. Will continue to monitor and if need be expand the advisory if visibilities start to diminish. As for rain chances, have brought a slight chance of precip in a bit earlier over the far west with development over eastern Montana. Otherwise, remaining changes were minimal. UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Dense fog has developed over portions of northwest North Dakota, with visibility in the Tioga and Stanley area dropping under a quarter mile. Latest HRRR spreads this out over the northwest this evening so have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the northwest 5 counties in North Dakota. Will keep it until early Monday morning when models suggest things starting to clear out. Will monitor surrounding areas to see if they need to be added as the evening wears on, but for now they look to be good with a few areas dipping down a bit. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 314 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Tonight, a shortwave trough will begin to sweep across the Northern Plains. A cold front associated with it will shift through western and central North Dakota, with increasing chances for precipitation after midnight. The bulk of the precipitation should be rain, however, light freezing rain is a possibility across north central North Dakota tonight into Monday morning. Temperatures should only marginally support freezing rain for a few hours during the early morning hours. Therefore, impacts should be limited, but even a brief period of freezing rain can cause hazardous travel. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 314 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Monday looks breezy as the surface cold front and upper shortwave trough sweep through. The system looks a little faster than previously forecast, so the bulk of the low level cape and shear should be further east by the time afternoon heating kicks in. This will limit chances for thunderstorms to far southeast North Dakota. Another system slides through beginning Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon, mainly affecting northern North Dakota. Colder air will filter in behind this system late Wednesday into Thursday. Rain is forecast to change over to snow across the north Tuesday night. There is the potential for up to one inch in the far north. Across the south, expect mild temperatures Tuesday with highs in the 50s, and possible lower 60s southwest. Cooler Wednesday with highs in the lower 30s north to mid 40s south. Another system slated for Thursday through Friday continues to trend snow chances south of Interstate 94. Because of this more southerly track, colder air via a northerly flow will encompass all of western and central North Dakota. Expect highs only in the 20s Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 630 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Widespread LIFR condition in fog will continue to develop over northwest North Dakota tonight and remain into Monday morning before gradually improving. Areas of IFR visibility will be possible over north central into portions of south central North Dakota tonight into tomorrow morning with some fog and light rain. Conditions will gradually improve throughout the area mid-day Monday into the afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ Monday for NDZ001- 002-009-010-017. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
712 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Currently the KBRO radar is showing an area of convection firing up west of Zapata County moving up to the NNE. The 00z BRO sounding continues to show a CAPE of 2800 j/kg. However a fairly strong cap remains in place over the RGV. The latest HRRR model run looks to be initializing on the ongoing conv pretty well with this model showing the conv primarily impacting the northern and western counties through around 09z mainly staying clear of the lower RGV airports. The HRRR then brings a more ragged line of conv through the lower RGV during the morning hours tomorrow. The conv will then end after midmorning tomorrow as drier and more stable air moves into the region as the 500 trough axis moves east. So will bring down the ceilings to MVFR/IFR levels late tonight into early Monday generally in line with the trends indicated by the HRRR with VFR conditions returning late in the current TAF period. && .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below. && .MARINE...Surface obs from across the marine locations indicate that the winds across the bay have dropped down below SCA levels while Buoy020 is showing stronger SE winds at 20g25kt with swells near 6 feet this evening. Expect the PGF ahead of the surface low pressure system to our west to remain stronge enough for the Gulf waters to maintain hazardous winds and seas through around midnight tonight. So will post up an SCA for the Gulf waters. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/ ..Potential still exists for marginal severe weather threat across portions of deep south Texas this evening through early Monday morning... SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Satellite and radar images indicate showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to develop across portions of northern Mexico northward across portions of southwest Texas and the Big Bend region ahead of the 500mb trough moving eastward across the southwest United States and northwest Mexico this afternoon. The cap across the area continues to inhibit convection across the CWA this afternoon but models indicate the cap will erode across northern and western portions of the CWA late this afternoon into early this evening. This will allow showers and thunderstorms...some possibly develop rapidly across western portions of the ranchlands and extreme western portions of the Rio Grande valley this evening through tonight before evolving into a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) and moving eastward across the CWA late tonight into early Mon morning. There still is some uncertainty if the cap along the coastal sections will erode and what impacts that would have on the potential squall line reaching the eastern portions of the CWA. Will continue to mention high pops for tonight into Monday with heavy rainfall/severe wording for tonight. Per the latest SPC outlook...the main severe threat appears to be damaging winds but large hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out especially is isolated thunderstorms develop ahead of the main line. The bulk of the rainfall should be north and east of deep south TX tonight into Monday but heavy rainfall can be expected with thunderstorms associated with the QLCS. Drier air will filter into the western portions of the CWA Monday into Monday night as the flow aloft veers from the south to southwest and eventually west as a cut-off low develops across southwest TX and moves across deep south TX Tues night. Rain chances will diminish from west to east Mon afternoon through Mon evening as a result. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): The forecast begins with a closed 500mb low over the middle Texas coast Tuesday morning. The mid level low will eventually move eastward over the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some wrap around moisture on the backside of the 500mb low will support some isolated convection along the Lower Texas coast Tuesday. Differences continue between the GFS/ECMWF with the placement of the mid level low and the amount of available moisture. Subsidence will prevail across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday courtesy of northerly flow aloft and at the surface. Winds become southeast on Thursday as surface low pressure develops across the Plain states. A dry cold front is expected to move across Deep South Texas Friday night. Breezy northeast winds Saturday morning quickly veer to the southeast Saturday night as surface high pressure moves east. MARINE: Tonight through Monday night: Seas were near 5 feet with south to southeast winds near 18 knots at buoy020 early this afternoon. Moderate to strong south to southeast winds will prevail offshore the lower Texas coast tonight with light to moderate south to southwest winds across the Laguna Madre before a convective frontal boundary/weak cold front moves across the coastal waters late tonight into early Mon morning. Winds and seas will be considerably stronger and higher as a line of showers and thunderstorms...likely a squall...moves through the coastal waters late tonight into early Monday. In the wake of the cold front...winds will be shifting to the north and northeast in the wake of low pressure developing along the frontal boundary offshore the lower TX coast Monday. Light northeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters Mon night as the weak frontal system offshore moves farther east into the western Gulf of Mexico. Tuesday through Friday: Light to moderate northwest to north winds will prevail across the Lower Texas Coastal waters through Wednesday as high pressure spreads over the area. Winds will gradually turn to the southeast Wednesday night then south on Thursday as high pressure moves east. Low to Moderate seas expected through the period. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ150-155- 170-175. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV Short Term...60 Long Term...64 Graphicast/Upper Air...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
640 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will continue to run well above normal this week. A cold front Tuesday will not even be able to break the streak. A stronger system Friday will bring colder air back to the region for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Slight increase in cloud cover overnight as cirrus streaming around the upper level ridge arrives with periods of partly cloudy skies. There is also a considerable gradient noted in dewpoints across central Ohio at 23Z with 35 degrees observed FDY/MNN and 45 degrees at DAY/CMH. HRRR model data shows extensive fog expected to develop across much of Indiana and southern Ohio in the moisture rich area. Did introduce a mention of patchy fog overnight in the southwestern counties as a light east to southeast wind will put these locations on the fringe of the expected fog/stratus deck. Previous discussion...In general high pressure will be in control across the area tonight. Skies will be clear through the evening and with light winds...temperatures will fall quickly toward and after dark. The remnants of a back door cold front will press across NY...and this may bring cloud cover into northwest PA overnight. The bulk of the cold air stays northeast of our area...but will likely see temperatures dip below freezing for far eastern OH and nw PA. Others will be in the 30s. A decent amount of drying has taken place today and not expecting fog to be all that bad. Confidence is low...but would be most likely across the southern locations where dewpoints remain a bit higher. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The surface high will be shifting east of the area on Monday and winds will come around from the east-northeast to the southeast...and eventually south by Monday night. We will warm nicely again tomorrow...with the exception of the immediate lake shore where winds will remain northeast. Another spread of upper 40s near the lake...upper 50s for most...and a few spots hitting 60. Southerly flow Monday night will keep areas warmer than the night before. There is a cold front Tuesday. It has remained on target for the daytime hours. Most of the guidance brings showers into Toledo in the morning...midday Cleveland Mansfield and takes showers across the eastern part of the area in the afternoon. Coverage still does not warrant higher than 60 or maybe 70 percent. Bulk of the upper support will be north of the area. Will still go above guidance temperatures. There will be time for the central/eastern areas to warm well. Guidance has been running cool would be expected in a unseasonably warm regime. There is room though for those temperatures to not pan out...but it will not be too far off. Again no real cold air behind the front and with high pressure returning to the Ohio Valley...a southwest flow will mean another really warm day. Made no change to the mid/upper 60s we had going. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ridging is progged to continue across the area and our spring pattern will continue into late week. One of the west coast storms will dig across the southern Rockies mid week and lift out late in the week. In the meantime, the models are coming more into agreement of a weak front, or at least frontogenesis, across the lower Great Lakes on Thursday. Not sure how much rain might occur but will include at least a chance or slight chance of showers in most areas. Warm frontogenesis will occur Thursday night into Friday. The warm front should move north of the area on Friday in the increasing south flow. Again, not very confident on the amount of showers that will occur. We will likely break into the warm sector for a while and I suspect Friday will become very warm, perhaps nearing 70 again in many areas. The models have been suggesting the passage of the strong cold front will come between late Friday afternoon and about midnight or so Friday night. Will have higher pops for the frontal passage and will include thunder and wind. Colder and blustery on Saturday. Temperatures will likely drop back to near normal. It will be colder aloft and could see a few snow/rain showers, especially downwind of Lake Erie in the wrap around moisture with the trough aloft. High pressure should build in on Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... The weak cold front should settle over the central part of the area tonight. Not expecting any cloudiness with the front but the weak convergence associated with the front may aid in helping some surface moisture pooling over our southern airports tonight. Dewpoints have dropped late today as the airmass has mixed with the daytime heating and not sure if the weak frontal boundary will be enough to pool moisture to the point of having a lot of fog form like last night. Will take a middle of the road approach and go for some fog late tonight in the south with only a few hours of possible ifr for fdy and mfd where wind direction should loose the northerly component by the end of the night. Also, the cirrus moving in from the west should help limit fog development. Generally expect partly cloudy skies on Monday once we evaporate the fog in the south with patches of high clouds and a light east to ne wind. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR may develop Tuesday and continue into Tuesday night. Non-VFR will develop again Thursday or Thursday night and continue at times Friday. && .MARINE... Have had some brisk west winds over the central basin this afternoon in the vicinity of a weak cold front dropping across the south shore of Lake Erie. Those winds will diminish quickly and veer north and then east tonight and Monday as high pressure slides east across the Great Lakes. The next cold front is due later Tuesday. South to southwest winds will pick up nicely ahead of the front and become southwest to west behind the front. Not expecting enough wind for a small craft advisory. A light to moderate southwest flow will persist until the next front drops across the lake on Thursday. Then winds will veer northwest Thursday but come quickly around from the southeast on Friday as low pressure tracks across the plains. The low will be a significant storm system as it tracks across the northern Great Lakes Friday into Friday night pushing a strong cold front across Lake Erie Friday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...KEC/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Kosarik AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Kosarik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 ...Updated for aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Boundary layer moisture continues to increase this afternoon, as observed with dew points across our south central Kansas counties making it to the 50 degree threshold. Fog and expanding stratus could redevelop just as the loss of isolation begins across that region. Additionally, the NAM family of models has been in general agreement with spreading showers and embedded thunderstorms north across the area from western OK around 00 UTC and though central Kansas though midnight, with precipitation generally ending after that. As the precipitation moves off to the east towards early Monday morning, the HRRR at this time developing another round of advection fog through the highway 183 corridor, which may cause travel problems in those areas as was the case last night and this morning. With a wave moving through the region, the fog won`t linger anywhere near as long as it did this morning, as westerly downslope surface winds develop by around 12 UTC Monday. On Monday, an 850 mb ridge shifts across western Kansas with breezy northwest surface winds preceding light winds heading into the evening and overnight. Temperatures may be similar to what we`ve seen on Sunday. The initial 850 mb cold pool will quickly be replaced with adiabatically warmed air with NAM taking surface temperatures into the 60s by mid afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Moderation right back into the climatological abnormally warm regime through mid week is expected starting Tuesday. Looking like 80 degrees can`t be ruled out any of the days Tuesday through Thursday near the OK line. The next wave continues to be advertised by the models by late Thursday and Friday timeframe, with a chance for snow and rainshowers precluding a colder and windier Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 600 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 The wind will gradually shift from the south to southwest toward 12z ahead of a cold front. The front will pass around 15-16z with a wind shift to the northwest at 15 kts. VFR conditions are expected to persist at DDC/GCK but MVFR CIGS will return for a few hours at HYS along with a few showers between 04z and 08z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Hamilton and Kearney counties were added to the Fire Weather Watch primarily covering northwest KS and northeastern CO for Monday afternoon. Any combination of slightly warmer temperatures or drier dew points than the models are showing could easily send the area (or more) into the red flag criteria for around 3 hours or so late Monday afternoon. Notably the ECMWF has much drier dew points than our current mesoscale model runs. Other than that, dry fuels and breezy winds it the afternoon would discourage outdoor burning across the entire area west of highway 283. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 46 71 37 75 / 30 0 0 0 GCK 40 69 32 76 / 10 0 0 0 EHA 39 68 35 76 / 10 0 0 0 LBL 40 71 33 77 / 20 0 0 0 HYS 48 69 36 75 / 30 0 0 0 P28 52 74 39 74 / 60 10 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for KSZ061-062. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Finch FIRE WEATHER...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
558 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 421 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 We added a light shower to the forecast through early evening over portions of northeast Minnesota. A few observations have reported light rain under those echoes seen on area radars over northern Minnesota. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 342 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 The focus remains on the rain likely for Monday. There was little change to the forecast. It still looks like the Northland will see a period of wet weather, and there could be isolated thunder. Tonight...The Northland will continue to see very unusually warm southerly flow, with 850 hpa temperatures about 8 to 10 degrees Celsius. There will be increasing upper-level cloud cover overnight as low pressure works its way east from the High Plains into the Northern Plains. There will be increasing dew point temperatures later tonight in advance of the approaching cool front in the Dakotas. The cloud cover and increasing dew point temperatures will help to bolster the overnight temperatures to very unusually warm levels more reminiscent of high temperatures for this time of the year. Lows will only be in the 30s to lower 40s, so there will continue to be a bit of melting of the snowpack overnight. Monday...The Northland will see a surge of moisture amidst the very unusually warm southerly flow ahead of an approaching cool front and potent upper-level trough from the west. The precipitable water values will increase to around 1 inches, quite high for overall atmospheric moisture for this time of the year. A period of deep saturation and rain will develop as falling heights and a 100 to 120 knot jet streak develop substantial atmospheric lift across the Northland. Strong south-southwesterly flow aloft, combined with embedded shortwaves in the southerly flow, could develop isolated, elevated thunder across parts of the forecast area, primarily the southern half of the forecast area. Several models have up to a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, including the GFS, SREF, NAM, and regional Canadian. The storms would likely be relatively weak, mainly just providing some rumbles of the thunder. There will likely be widespread rainfall of 0.25" to 0.5" and isolated areas could get quite a bit more, all depending on the track of and/or training of any heavier showers or storms. The melting snow, combined with the rain and difficulty any rain will have penetrating the relatively frozen ground, will likely contribute to ponding on low-lying roadways. Monday Night...There could be lingering showers across the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin in the early evening, but cooler and drier air will filter into the Northland amidst the westerly flow in the wake of the cool front. Lows will likely be in the low to middle 30s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 342 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 A rain/snow mix is possible for much of the Northland Tuesday evening and Wednesday and then a significant storm system takes aim on the region Thursday night through early Saturday morning. Quasi-zonal flow expected to return behind the departing occluded system Tuesday morning. A weak shortwave trough is forecast to scoot across far northern Minnesota during the day increasing cloud cover across the Northland. The lack of moisture behind Monday night`s cold front will keep the risk of precipitation low. Cloud cover will increase Tuesday night as a clipper system moves out of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas and southern Canadian Prairies. A compact shortwave trough and a slug of Pacific moisture will raise the potential for a rain/snow mix across much of the Northland. The best chance of precipitation continues to be focused over the northern half of our CWA. Raised QPF amounts with this forecast. Precipitation will begin as light snow and change to rain Wednesday morning. Even with the higher QPF, we are only carrying one-half up to an inch of snow accumulation in our northern tier of zones. Temperatures will trend cooler on Wednesday, and especially Thursday, behind the clipper. Even with the surge of cooler air however, temperatures will be closer to, but still above, normal. Focus then shifts to the Thursday night through early Saturday morning time period. A significant trough will dig into the western CONUS Wednesday night and emerge over the Central Plains Thursday morning. The quasi-zonal pattern over the Upper Midwest will quickly shift to a southwest flow regime ahead of the approaching trough. Baja Pacific and Gulf moisture will stream northward into the Mississippi River Valley ahead of the approaching low, setting the stage for a potent storm system to affect the region late this week. The surface low is forecast to track from southwest Colorado Thursday morning to somewhere in the Great Lakes and eastern Canada by Saturday morning. Deterministic solutions diverge considerably in handling this system with the ECMWF moving the surface low to near James Bay by Saturday morning, while the GFS low is centered over southern Ontario, and the GEM farther west over Upper Michigan. Ensemble members feature a wide envelope of solutions, too. Continued to lean on the consensus for now, which brings accumulating snow to an area from Lake Mille Lacs to the Twin Ports and all of northwest Wisconsin. Snow will move northeastward into central Minnesota and east- central Wisconsin late Thursday night or early Friday morning and spread across all but far northwestern portions of our CWA by noon Friday. The highest confidence continues to focus east of the I-35 corridor and across all of northwest Wisconsin. Snow will slowly diminish late Friday night and early Saturday. There is a potential for a period of lake effect snow over snowbelt areas of northwest Wisconsin through Saturday night. With considerable uncertainty regarding the track and intensity of this system, confidence in snow amounts is low, other than the expectation that measurable to plowable snow seems likely for portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Anyone with travel plans late this week is encouraged to keep up with the latest forecast as details become clearer. High pressure will build into the Northland Saturday afternoon and winds will veer northwesterly behind the departing storm. The fresh snow pack and northerly breezes will bring near to below normal temperatures back to the area Saturday and Saturday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 558 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 VFR conditions were occurring across the Northland with mid and upper level clouds covering most areas. There are some light showers over parts of northern Minnesota that will continue into the evening before moving north of the International Border. Confidence in stratus development later tonight into Monday is higher than the past few days. The RAP was doing a decent job depicting the MVFR/IFR ceilings over OK and forecasts those to lift north and east tonight on a strong low level jet. We have at least a chance for these ceilings into most TAF sites late tonight with them becoming prevailing through the day Monday. Some light rain or drizzle will be possible late tonight with the coverage/intensity increasing through the morning into the afternoon. A few thunderstorms will also be possible as CAPE increases late tonight into Monday. The low level jet will also create non-convective low level wind shear for most areas into at least Monday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 937 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 For record highs and record warmest low temperatures for Duluth and International Falls, please see the Public Information Statement (PNSDLH) issued by our office this morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 37 49 33 50 / 10 90 60 0 INL 37 48 32 46 / 20 90 50 0 BRD 44 54 33 54 / 10 80 0 10 HYR 41 53 35 54 / 0 90 70 0 ASX 37 53 37 54 / 10 80 60 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Melde SHORT TERM...Grochocinski LONG TERM...Huyck AVIATION...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
605 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 602 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017 The Winter Weather Advisory for the San Juan Mountains has been allowed to expire. Please keep in mind that lingering snow showers are anticipated through this evening with locally up to 2 inches of additional snow fall possible for the San Juans. The Winter Weather Advisory for the Central Colorado Mountains remains in effect through 7 AM MST Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 349 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017 The closed low bringing the clouds, rain and snow continues to open this afternoon and will become an open wave/trough by later this evening. There is hardly any change to forecast thinking as plenty of moisture remains in the atmosphere and continues to be worked on by the trough as it moves through. Widespread precipitation is being reported across the CWA with snow at higher elevations and rain at lower elevations. Snow levels vary across the area but 9,000 feet still looks good for the going advisories which continue at this time. The NAM continues to show the trough syncing up with another wave well to our north later tonight. When this occurs, winds will become northwesterly and precipitation will pick up especially over favored northwest facing slopes ending by daybreak. Do have some concern that advisories for San Juans may end too soon (6PM) this evening and may need to be extended as latest guidance does keep some precip going through tonight. However, HRRR and RAP not too enthusiastic about this precip. Either way, next shift will need to keep an eye on precip and where focus sets up. Also, a few lightning strikes were reported in Cortez which makes sense as instability from the low pressure aloft caused some low top thunderstorms. Included the chance of storms for southern valleys through the rest of the afternoon for the off-chance a few more pop-up. The rest of the forecast area will see showery precipitation through this evening and overnight with plenty of clouds hanging around. These clouds will moderate temps somewhat keeping lows a little bit warmer than yesterday. Expect some areas of patchy fog to form overnight in those normally fog-prone areas, too, thanks to increased moisture from today`s precipitation. On Monday, clearing conditions will kick in as the trough shifts well to our east. Partly cloudy skies are expected with partly to mostly cloudy skies for the mountains. The jet stream then becomes oriented from the southwest to northeast over the Intermountain West. Little ripples of energy will work through the jet stream bringing plenty of rain and snow to central and northern California up through Nevada and into Idaho while we stay just to the southeast of this precipitation. A few showers are not out of the question, especially for the Uintahs and our far northern zones, but with most support to our northwest, little precipitation is expected. No big swings in temperature either so similar highs and lows remain in the forecast. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 349 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017 The jet stream starts dropping southward Monday night into Tuesday as a trough starts digging down from the Gulf of Alaska. As the jet starts dropping, some showers are possible over the highest terrain though no appreciable accumulation is expected. These showers will start forming Tuesday and persist through Wednesday. Again, these look to be more nuisance showers than anything of much consequence. As the base of the trough drops down to central California, an area of deformation looks to set up over central Nevada through Utah and into our northern valleys. This deformation looks to persist Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning when the trough finally moves through during the day. Once it moves through, light precipitation will persist into Friday. As this is occurring, a deep area of low pressure will be dropping down the West Coast. As it does so, the low will eject a short wave that will bring a reinforcing shot of rain and snow for the central and northern mountains late Friday night into Saturday morning. Like the last disturbance, once the short wave moves on showery precip looks to continue through Saturday. So Monday through Wednesday look to be the nicest days this week with more widespread precipitation moving in Thursday and beyond. Temperatures will run warm through the same timeframe and then dropping to at or below normal to end out the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 523 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017 A storm system continues to pass over the forecast area this evening, supporting MVFR conditions and lingering shower activity. This storm system should exit the area around midnight bringing an end to shower activity. Once the system exits the area mid and high clouds will scatter out but low clouds and fog will become a possibility through roughly 1500Z at most terminals. VFR is anticipated at all terminals on Monday. Forecast confidence is moderate tonight and high tomorrow. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM MST Monday for COZ009-010-012- 013. UT...None. && $$ UPDATE...Larry SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...Larry
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
543 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 .AVIATION... Not too many changes to the TAFs for the 00z package. Primary short term issue will be lowering cigs, and possibly some sea fog at the coast. Later tonight we`ll be keeping a close eye on evolution of storms expected to organize into a line west of the region and then move into SE Tx after 8z. Latest HRRR runs are a bit faster with timing of the line & closer to what the Tx Tech WRF has been depicting. (maybe leading edge CLL 8-10z, UTS/CXO 10-12z, IAH/SGR 11-13z, HOU/LBX 12-14z, & GLS >14z). We`ll watch trends and update for timing best we can, but there is uncertainty with a lot of variables in play. Will likely see the heaviest rain along the leading band, but possibility for steady moderate rains for several hours in its wake are expected as well. Should see slowly improving conditions later in the afternoon. 47 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/ Cloud cover starting to break up this afternoon with some mixing. Where we are seeing the sun, temps have already made it to the upper 70s, so SE areas will likely see some 80 degree temps this aft. It is breezy and very humid as well for Feb with sfc dw pts in the mid/upper 60s areawide. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement that widespread showers and storms will develop early this eve well west of SE TX across central/north TX ahead of a slow eastward moving longwave mid/upper level trough. Meso models show that an area of showers and storms will develop out ahead of this main precip. band across western portions of Se Texas just after midnight and this lead band will be a slow mover across our W/NW areas during the early morning hours. With PW values peaking around 1.8 inches Mon morning, and upper level divergence increasing Mon morning as well as a split jet structure develops, key parameters are in place for heavy rainfall. The fairly unidirectional s/sw flow in the low-mid layers of the atmosphere points to the possibility of cell training in this very moist airmass. Think this all equates to widespread 1 to 3 inches late tonight and tomorrow as well as the threat for localized 4 to 6 amounts. Given that the ground is fairly moist from previous rainfall, have issued a flash flood watch for most of SE TX beginning during the early morning hours on Mon and continuing through most of the aft. The heavy rainfall threat should end by the eve hours. A trailing mid/upper low that hangs around on Tue and this feature will extend the chc of showers into Tues, but no heavy rainfall is expected with this feature. Dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected on Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will move through on Friday aft/eve and bring a brief cooler airmass to the region early next weekend. 33 MARINE... Southeasterly flow very slow to come up this afternoon. Throughout the evening hours expect winds to increase and will continue with the SCEC for winds increasing to 15-20 knots...lighter in the bays. Moisture still rich but with shorter residency over the warming shelf waters and more mixing expect fog to be lighter throughout the night with areas from around Freeport to Galveston probably dropping to 1 to 3 miles. Will hold off on a Marine Dense Fog Advisory as it isn`t as clear cut as last night. Seas building to 5 to 6 feet toward morning. Storms will move in from the west and will be capable of gusty conditions and significant reduction in visibility in heavy downpours. Shear is a little higher over the southwest waters between midnight and 8 am and will have to keep an eye out for fast moving spinners/waterspouts over the far waters. Pacific cold front eventually pushes through Monday night with a gusty northwesterly winds probably below SCEC. Another Pacific cold front late Friday may boost offshore winds to SCEC for Saturday morning. Long southeasterly fetch develops Sunday and may see a period of elevated seas/tides/sea fog late Sunday through Tuesday. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 72 57 76 55 / 90 70 10 20 10 Houston (IAH) 69 72 61 76 59 / 80 100 30 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 68 70 63 72 62 / 60 90 50 30 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flash Flood Watch from 3 AM CST Monday through Monday afternoon for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos... Burleson...Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston... Grimes...Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda... Montgomery...San Jacinto...Walker...Waller...Washington... Wharton. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
842 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 835 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Latest surface map indicating the weak area of high pressure that pushed across central Illinois today has shifted off to our east this evening. This has allowed a southeasterly flow to develop over the forecast area which should help keep overnight lows from dropping too far tonight. That coupled with a large area of cirrus tracking across the Midwest this evening should also keep the temperatures up most of the night. The main forecast concern will be another night with fog overspreading the area from the south. Already seeing visibilities dropping off to a quarter mile in a few locations over southeast Illinois and expect that trend to continue to shift north and northwest late this evening into the early morning hours. Hard to beat how well the RAP and HRRR did with the stratus and fog last night and both of these models through much of today have been advertising a large band of low clouds and fog tracking north and northwest tonight again. Two negative factors for widespread fog that has us a bit concerned about going too far west and north with any advisory are the extensive high clouds and then a southeasterly wind that is expected to hold between 5 and 10 mph overnight. Forecast soundings continue to show quite a low level inversion in place through the night with the boundary layer wind fields more east to southeast bringing the stratus and fog more northwest into our forecast area, similar to what the high resolution models have been advertising for quite some time. As a result, we will be needing a Dense Fog Advisory soon for far southeast and east central Illinois and then wait to see how far west and north to take it later tonight. Have already sent an updated ZFP out to address the widespread fog starting to develop in the southeast early this evening. Once we have determined the areal extent of any advsiory, we will have an additional ZFP update later this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 312 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Dry weather will continue tonight as a weak weather system develops to the west and moves toward the area for tomorrow. Fog will be an issue again tonight as there has not been any change in airmass since this morning and the HiRes models continue to forecast fog across the area. Will have patchy fog in the west with areas of fog in the west. Fog will also linger into the morning hours. Fog could become dense again, but hoping enough mixing has taken place today to keep visibilities from going as low as they did this morning. So advisory is not being issued at this time. Models in good agreement on timing of precip with all models suggesting that all precip will remain west of the I-55 through afternoon. However, some showers could be possible east of I-55 during the late afternoon as the system moves into the state. Temps during the day Monday will remain well above normal, with records again possible. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 312 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Models are in very good agreement with the bulk of the precipitation coming into the CWA Monday night and then being out of the area by Tuesday afternoon. System is not very strong and looks like a simple front/mid level wave coming through, so most of the precipitation will be showers. However, very warm temps and an increase in moisture means that some isolated thunderstorms will not be out of the question. By Tuesday morning, most of the precip will have moved off to the east with only the eastern part of the CWA left with come lingering showers. By Tue afternoon, all the precip will be out of the area and well east of the state. Dry and warm weather will return for Tue night through Wed night as the CWA sits in a some-what zonal flow. This flow will keep the area in a very warm airmass for middle of the week and into the latter part of the week. Then another system will be developing in the southwest US and move out into the plains Thur into Thur night. Models are in agreement that this will be occurring but differ on timing and location of the weather and surface features, including a warm front. The Canadian has the warm front further south than the GFS and ECMWF and with such warm air we have been having the last week, believe Canadian too far south and am more inclined to side with the other two models. This system will also be deepening some as it moves out of the southern plains. There should be plenty of moisture and with dynamics increasing, showers and thunderstorms appear likely, especially in the warm sector and probably along the developing warm front. Current forecast models indicate the timing of the front through the CWA could be late enough that the best instability and dynamics would be in eastern IL Fri afternoon, then pushing east into Indiana for Friday evening. This is 5-6 days out and lots could change between now and then. However, believe showers and storms warranted in the forecast for Thur night and Fri across the CWA. As the system lifts northeast into the Great Lakes region Fri night, showers will linger in the east with any wrap around precip being north of the CWA. Dry weather then returns for a brief period for Sat and Sat night and temps will drop to slightly below normal for Sat during the day and also that night. However, this cool down will be very short lived as warm temps will quickly return for next Sunday. A weak wave will lift northeast across northwest IL and some precip is possible in northwest part of the CWA during the day. Temps will remain above normal through most of the week, but then cool briefly for Sat and Sat night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 505 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Fog with LIFR/VLIFR conditions expected to overspread the area from south to north this evening roughly in the 03z-06z time frame. Low clouds and fog/hz late this afternoon were confined to areas south of our TAF sites. However, after sunset we should see the fog start to develop and then expand across the forecast area. The fog will slowly lift after 15z on Monday as increasing southerly winds ahead of our next storm system develop across the area. The stratus deck looks to improve only to MVFR category by afternoon. The winds tonight will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts and then southeast winds will increase on Monday to between 12 and 17 kts with a few gusts up to 23 kts possible in the afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 312 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Sunday Feb 19th... Peoria........ 71 / 50 Lincoln....... 71 / 46 Springfield... 70 / 54 Champaign..... 68 / 46 Bloomington... 70 / 47 Decatur....... 66 / 48 Danville...... 70 / 54 Galesburg..... 63 / 52 Charleston.... 72 / 53 Effingham..... 70 / 45 Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Monday Feb 20th... Peoria........ 68 / 46 Lincoln....... 70 / 46 Springfield... 74 / 46 Champaign..... 71 / 45 Bloomington... 67 / 45 Decatur....... 70 / 47 Danville...... 70 / 48 Galesburg..... 64 / 41 Charleston.... 73 / 48 Effingham..... 68 / 54 Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Tuesday Feb 21st... Peoria........ 69 / 46 Lincoln....... 69 / 45 Springfield... 69 / 48 Champaign..... 67 / 47 Bloomington... 69 / 46 Decatur....... 68 / 48 Danville...... 67 / 50 Galesburg..... 68 / 40 Charleston.... 71 / 52 Effingham..... 73 / 52 Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Wednesday Feb 22nd... Peoria........ 71 / 51 Lincoln....... 71 / 52 Springfield... 71 / 53 Champaign..... 69 / 49 Bloomington... 70 / 53 Decatur....... 72 / 51 Danville...... 71 / 54 Galesburg..... 61 / 45 Charleston.... 71 / 52 Effingham..... 74 / 55 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Smith SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...Smith CLIMATE...Auten
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
629 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 100 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Unseasonably mild conditions will continue through much of the upcoming week. Weak winds associated with a departing ridge of high pressure will likely lead to fog formation once again tonight, with a potential of some dense fog late tonight into early Monday morning. Dry conditions will continue through Monday afternoon, but rain will become likely Monday night into early Tuesday. There is another chance of rain Wednesday night as a system tracks north of the area, but the greater chance of showers and a few thunderstorms is expected by Thursday night and Friday as a stronger storm system takes shape across the middle of the country. Wednesday is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with highs reaching into the 65 to 70 degree range. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. High temperatures on Monday will range from the mid to upper 60s across northwest Indiana, to the mid to upper 50s across south central lower Michigan. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 254 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Areas of fog were able to form in a shallow cold layer with overnight radiation last night. There should be a similar situation tonight with fog reforming over at least the southwest half of the forecast area in light return flow. The HRRR appears to have a good handle on this scenario. Otherwise, the mild pattern will continue with lows tonight staying above freezing. Highs Monday should be in the 60s, except possibly of over far northeast areas. Highs Monday should be well above normal in the 60s again and approach the records of 67 at Ft Wayne and 65 at South Bend. && .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 254 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 The unseasonably mild pattern will persist through most of the upcoming week with highs well above normal as the long wave upper trof persists over western North America. A leading short wave was near the Four Corners area this afternoon and has moved out of the main long wave trof. This system will move east and should reach the forecast area Monday night and spread showers over the area into Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF are still in good agreement with the timing of this system along with the Canadian GEM suggesting the best chance for rain Monday night and early Tuesday. Otherwise, there will be a little break in the rain Tuesday night and Wednesday before a stronger system reaches the area Thursday and Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed part of the forecast area in the Day 6 severe weather outlook. Several factors were coming together for the chance for severe storms including the advection of an elevated mixed layer. Kept thunder in Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures should still be mild into Friday, but then turn much colder Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 623 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Stayed with previous TAF idea of fog/stratus development overnight with some minor adjustments to timing per latest hires guidance. HRRR handled fog/stratus well last night and appears to have handle on residual stratus over OH valley late this afternoon. Followed this model rather closely which is in line with previous TAFs. Latest guidance is a bit slower to bring in lower VIS and CIGs from the south and trended a little later. Latest Consensus Short model has trended a bit further south with northern extent and keeps the lowest Cigs and VIS just south of terminals but still very close. Expect mixing by late morning to help dissipate morning clouds and fog with VFR by afternoon. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...Skipper LONG TERM...Skipper AVIATION...Lashley Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
National Weather Service Jackson KY
653 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 653 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2017 Narrow band of clouds continue to hold on just north of the I-64 corridor. While the erosion of the clouds has slowed some with sunset, the subsidence building into the region should help to gradually erode the remainder of the clouds as the night goes on. Something to note is that we have a nice boundary showing up on JKL radar this evening associated with the differential temperature boundary from the cooler/cloudy areas in the north today to the areas that cleared out to the south. This boundary appears to be sagging southward towards our office. Behind the boundary, valley locations have already reached the upper 40s. We should see a sharp fall continue with temperatures in the valleys this evening. MOS guidance is supporting some mid 30s and based on current conditions, this doesn`t seem that unrealistic. Thus, will drop the valley locations a bit colder tonight. Regardless, temperatures will fall well under cross over temperatures, setting up a good night of radiational fog. Current forecast has this covered well. Also tweaked sky cover down overnight. Outside of the clouds in the north early on, probably only dealing with some high clouds moving in late tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 335 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2017 19z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving over Kentucky. While rather weak it has mustered enough strength to start the clearing process through the southern two thirds of the CWA. With the returning sunshine temperatures have rebounded into the lower 60s in the south but still are in the low 50s under the clouds for locations north of Interstate 64. Dewpoints, meanwhile, have held rather steady in the mid and upper 40s along with light and variable winds. Look for the ceilings continue to erode into the early evening with most places seeing clear skies through sunset. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a strong ridge passing over Kentucky and the Deep South tonight through Monday in advance of a full latitude trough crossing thr Rockies. This trough starts to split apart later Monday night with the southern portion closing off as it exits into the western Gulf. Meanwhile, the northern portion pushes quickly into the Great Lakes stretching the energy with this trough. Some of that energy will look to ride over eastern Kentucky early Tuesday ahead of the main trough axis. Given the decent agreement among the models have favored a general blend with a significant lean toward the higher resolution HRRR and NAM12 in the near term. Sensible weather will feature mostly clear skies to start the night leading to good radiational cooling. With the fairly high low level moisture in place we will likely see fog develop rather early in the night in the valleys and spread through much of the CWA - becoming dense late - particularly in the valleys. Have hit this in the grids (and TAFs) and will highlight it in the forthcoming HWO. Later shifts will need to monitor cloud cover and vsby changes tonight for a possible SPS or Dense Fog NPW. The fog will burn off quickly Monday morning with a very warm day on tap ahead of the slowly approaching cold front. For Monday night, the front starts to move into the state, but likely remain too far west through dawn for any significant rain chances. Will also apply some patchy fog to the valleys early Tuesday under increasing and thickening high clouds. Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for the grids through the short term portion of the forecast. Did make some adjustments to temperatures each night to account for a small ridge to valley difference tonight and a bit larger one tomorrow night. As for PoPs, kept them as initialized with no impact expected before 12z Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2017 The extended portion of the forecast will begin on Tuesday with an active and progressive pattern setting up. At this time, the main features of concern will be a wave tracking across the northern CONUS as well as another low tracking over the lower MS Valley undercutting the upper level ridge along the Front Range. During this time, eastern Kentucky falls in between the bulk of the forcing of these two features leading to a bit less QPF over the area, especially as it seems this boundary passing through the area begins to shear out by Wednesday morning. The super blend seems to hint at some lingering moisture behind this feature but with the new 12z Euro showing no indication, will leave pops out on Wednesday. By Thursday, a vigorous low ejects from the Front Range and into the central Plains as strong southerly flow develops just east of the MS River. Model profile indicate some good instability developing with the formation of the warm front on Thursday and into Thursday night. Therefore have introduced some thunder into the forecast during this period. By Friday morning, the warm front has lifted north of the area putting eastern Kentucky firmly in the warm sector. In fact, expect highs to reach into the lower 70s across the area. For this period, some of the best baroclinicity develops that has not been seen for a few weeks. Model profiles indicate a renewal of some good instability with the developed cold front. Have indicated some thunder for late Friday and into Friday night as well. While severe convection is still a low chance for eastern Kentucky, it is worth noting that SPC has highlighted a slight severe chance in central Kentucky for the Friday period. After passage of the most significant cold front not seen in a few weeks, temps on Saturday morning and into the day on Saturday will either be slowly rising or steady through the day. At this point, the bulk of the CAA is slow to enter the area with much of the moisture exited by the time the colder air filters into the area. While now apparent at this time, a post front would chance this chance but it seems the profile dries and clears out after passage, which also means for some of the coldest low temps of the extended. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 653 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2017 Some MVFR cigs will hold on north near I-64 over the next hour or two, before slowly eroding. Attention will then turn to fog formation as we have fairly high cross over temperatures. This will allow for an earlier onset of fog than normal late this evening. This will allow the fog to become dense in the valleys overnight. The fog may try to creep onto some of the ridges around daybreak Monday, but confidence is somewhat low on this potential. Fog will burn off Monday morning with VFR conditions returning by 14z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...KAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
533 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 121 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 The primary issue in the very short term is the impact of an area of low cloud cover on near term temperatures. This stratus deck has been advancing northeast while also eroding from the sides. It has not been particularly deep but has been deep enough to limit sunshine and keep temperatures cooler. On the other hand, as it continues to advance it will keep temperatures warmer overnight. Precipitation chances become the focus after 9 PM as an elongated neutral-tilt upper trough is moving across the plains. Upper flow overhead is quite meridional with ample deep moisture advection into the region. Several short wave troughs were moving toward the NNE out of the main longer wave trough. One of particular interest was evident over the Big Bend region of TX in WV imagery. This appears that it may be the first piece of lead energy to provide focused ascent for precipitation locally. Model guidance has generally increased the expectation for precipitation late this evening into early Monday largely tied to the trajectory of this energy. Hi-Res guidance such as recent runs of the HRRR and RAP support the larger-scale model theme, and seem to focus the optimal timing for precip in the local forecast area between midnight and 8 AM with a gradual SW to NE precip transition. There is some potential to linger a bit longer in the far east as the upper trough slowly moves east and another slight chance for precip mainly in far northern KS late in the day as the surface front eventually moves into the area. PWAT values are forecast to flirt with record values for this time of year with some forecast values approaching 1.3-1.5". There should also be some modest elevated instability, and the combination of the two features may allow for a few areas of decent rainfall to materialize. Duration will not be very long with the progressive waves of energy, but wouldn`t be surprised to see precip amounts range from very light in north central KS to potentially a half inch or more where better convection develops. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 121 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Conditions will dry out for Monday night through Thursday morning. Expect quite a bit of sunshine through Tues/Wed with dry air just above the boundary layer likely to mix to the surface. Similar conditions in recent days have led to warmer and drier than expected conditions so at this time have been forecasting a bit warmer and a bit drier but will want to monitor for any potential to go warmer and drier yet. Luckily wind speeds are unlikely to exceed 20 mph either day so explosive fire conditions are unlikely although MinRH could fall below 20% each day. On Thursday, model agreement is still strong in a strong jet streak crossing into KS with surface cyclogenesis in southeast Colorado. Expect a strengthening frontal zone to extend across northern KS by late Thursday with cold air being pulled into north central KS by Thursday evening. Guidance remains split on how soon and how impressive the intensification of the upper low will be but the overall message remains generally the same. Expect windy conditions with the strengthening surface low, and continue to see decent potential for snow over mainly northern KS northwest of a Minneapolis to Clay Center to Marysville line but this could obviously change substantially between now and the end of next week. If snow develops, some accumulation is possible but expect a sharp gradient in accumulation and could very well end up nearly snowless especially with the warm ground temperatures. Colder air overtakes the entire region for the weekend, but even while it is much colder than the current airmass it will still be fairly close to normal values. Another very weak system will bring precip chances for Sunday with rain or snow possible, and the active weather pattern looks to continue into the following week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday) Issued at 533 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Models are in good agreement with the good surge of moisture moving across eastern KS along with some PVA. Forecast soundings even show around 500 J/kg of elevated instability overnight. With the moisture advecting northeast, MVFR CIGS are expected to return along with some 3SM to 5SM BR. Timing of this is a blend of available guidance and the timing of the precip is based largely off the HRRR. By Monday afternoon, models push the deep moisture axis east of the area and shift winds more to the southwest. This should allow for the low level moisture to scour out and conditions to improve to VFR. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Wolters