Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/17/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
930 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
Just adjusted cloud cover lower across much of the central and
east as only the far west has any clouds as of 9 pm CST. Some
light rain showing up on Billings radar but HRRR runs do not bring
this into the west neither does CONSShort guidance. Will leave out
pops tonight for now.
UPDATE Issued at 617 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
Based primarily on current wind conditions and snow cover lowered
the minimum temperatures across the James River Valley and the
western Devils lake Basin. For the sky grids slowed the cloud
increase until late later this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
Mild and mainly dry conditions highlight the short term period.
Currently, upper level ridge centered over the Great Plains into
south central Canada. Westerly surface flow and 850mb temperatures
of +10 to +15C contributing to another mild day. SCT-BKN upper
level clouds and some areas seeing light winds under 5 MPH has
hindered the warmup in some locations across west and central ND,
while other areas have warmed above their previous forecast
highs. Thus a tricky afternoon temperature forecast but overall
mild and well above seasonal normals.
Ridge axis continues to our east tonight allowing southwest flow
into the region and a cold front into the central Dakotas. This is
expected to be a dry frontal passage with the main result an
increase in clouds from west to east in advance of an embedded
wave. Temperatures tonight remain mild in the upper 20s to mid
30s.
The potent embedded S/WV trough slides east into eastern Montana
by 12Z Friday, then across North Dakota Friday daytime. Models
have been keying in on bringing QPF to my north Friday
morning/afternoon so introduced chance POPs there. Cooler
temperatures due to weak CAA and more sky cover, though still very
mild in the upper 30s and 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
The long term period will be highlighted by continued mild
temperatures through early next week, followed by a cool-down
thereafter. For precipitation chances, three well defined waves
look to bring moisture to our region Sunday night-Monday, across
the north Tuesday/Tuesday night, then again late in the period
Thursday/Thursday night.
Overall models are in fair agreement with all three waves and thus
the Forecast Builder model blend inserted high chance to likely
POPs for all three above mentioned periods across the region.
Temperatures profiles suggest a mix of rain/snow for the first
two S/WV`s as we remain warm. The late week system will occur
under cooler conditions favoring snow, with accumulations very
possible.
Definitely a more active period beginning Sunday night and
onwards.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
VFR conditions will prevail across the region again tonight and
Friday. Low pressure in northern Saskatchewan will keep a dry
southwest to west windflow across the region. Increasing winds
aloft will cause some wind shear conditions surface to 2 thousand
agl after 08-12z. A slight chance of rain after 21z northwest and
north central will bring scattered to broken clouds 35 hundred to
6 thousand agl KISN-KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
550 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 506 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
At 300 PM...A prominent upper-level ridge was over the central US
and central Canada, and a warm front extended from northern
Manitoba to western Minnesota and into Iowa. The Northland had
scattered upper-level cloud cover and breezy southerly winds,
except the Duluth area had light easterly flow from Lake Superior.
Temperatures across the Northland were in the 30s.
Tonight...The warm front will move through the Northland. Some
partial clearing by sunset will contribute to radiational cooling
and the development of the near-surface inversion. Light winds
will develop. Several models are indicating stratus and/or fog
will develop tonight. The NAM, GFS, RAP, and HRRR are among these
models. Considering the added moisture from the today`s melting
snowpack, think this is certainly possible. Some of the models
seem too excessive with the extent of the low-level stratus
though, a pattern seen over the past few weeks, so focused on
forecasting tonight`s cloudier skies to where the models had good
agreement on where the depth of the saturated layer will reach
about 925 to 900 hPa. This resulted in forecasting broken/overcast
cloud cover for the Iron Range and inland Arrowhead, as well as a
bit for the Duluth area. Think this stratus will develop after
sunset. There will also be some lingering upper-level clouds
tonight, so the 40% to 60% cloud cover forecast for other areas
not only accounts for this upper cloud cover, but also for the
possibility of some low stratus. Think there is a bit too much
wind flow to add fog to the forecast, but there could be isolated
fog. Lows should be in the middle to upper 20s.
Friday...Very unusually warm air will build into the Northland
amidst westerly winds aloft. For instance, the 850 hPa
temperatures will build to 9 to 13 degrees Celsius. A very shallow
inversion, and the lack of wind flow in the shallow mixing layer,
though, will prevent the Northland from fully realizing this
warmth. Nonetheless, light southwest flow and sunny skies will
help temperatures climb to near-record territory. Leaned on the
warmest model guidance, namely towards the regional Canadian,
given the scenario. Avoided forecasting quite as warm as the
regional Canadian, though, given the lack of low-level mixing.
Highs should reach well into the 40s, and in some areas the low
50s. The forecast and respective record temperatures for the date
include Duluth (48 and a record of 51 in 1951), International
Falls (52 and a record of 1907), and Brainerd (51 and a record of
54 in 1951).
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 506 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
Unseasonable warmth will continue through the weekend, but a
storm system is forecast to bring a mix of rain and snow, and a
chance of isolated thunderstorms, to the Northland early next
week.
A high-amplitude ridge axis aloft will be located east of the
Northland Friday evening with a potent shortwave trough stretching
from the northern Canadian Prairies into the Northern Plains.
Moisture is forecast to be extremely limited with this system. A
period of increased cloud cover will be the only sensible weather
feature to mark the passage of the system`s weak cool front. Very
mild conditions are expected through the weekend and into early
next week. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to middle
50s with overnight lows from the middle 20s to the upper 30s. The
mild temperatures should work to melt some of the snowpack across
the area, which will support the development of fog overnight
Saturday, Sunday, and early Monday morning.
A more significant pattern shift will arrive late Sunday
afternoon continuing through mid-week. A deep upper trough will
advance eastward across the Rockies Sunday and into the Midwest by
Monday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast in Colorado and Wyoming
early Monday morning with the storm system lifting northeastward
into northwest Ontario by late Monday night. With the upper-level
ridge pushing farther east of the region, southerly flow and a
surge of Gulf moisture will be available for the early week
system. A mix of rain and snow is favored for our northern zones
Monday and Monday night, with mainly rain across the southern half
of the CWA. The deterministic models all have non-zero MUCAPE
along and ahead of the advancing cold front, so have introduced
isolated thunderstorms with the rain showers Monday afternoon and
evening.
Another weak disturbance will move across the Northland late
Tuesday night and Wednesday yielding a slight chance of rain or
snow showers, mainly over far northern Minnesota. Temperatures are
expected to remain above to much above normal through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
VFR conditions were occurring across the Northland as of early
evening. Continued warm air advection will lead to increasing
clouds overnight, first mid and upper level clouds and possibly
lower ceilings as the night progresses. The models remain mixed on
if LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings form overnight and how widespread they
would become. The combination of lowering winds, added moisture
from snowmelt, and warm air advection will bring the threat for
lower ceilings to portions of the Northland. We did delay bringing
in the lower ceilings at most TAF`s tonight by a couple of hours.
There may also be some fog that forms tonight.
We left the mention of drizzle/freezing drizzle out of the
forecast for now as the probability is too low to include at this
time.
Conditions will improve to VFR through the day Friday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 506 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
Record Warmest Lows for February 17...
Duluth................ 34 in 1981
International Falls... 33 in 1998
Record Highs for February 17...
Duluth................ 52 in 1981
International Falls... 52 in 1907
Record Warmest Lows for February 18...
Duluth................ 35 in 1981
International Falls... 35 in 1981
Record Highs for February 18...
Duluth................ 53 in 1981
International Falls... 49 in 1954
Record Warmest Lows for February 19...
Duluth................ 35 in 1930
International Falls... 32 in 2016
Record Highs for February 19...
Duluth................ 51 in 1930
International Falls... 47 in 1994
Record Warmest Lows for February 20...
Duluth................ 33 in 1954
International Falls... 32 in 1915
Record Highs for February 20...
Duluth................ 54 in 1877
International Falls... 48 in 1990
Record Warmest Lows for February 21...
Duluth................ 33 in 1878
International Falls... 29 in 1981
Record Highs for February 21...
Duluth................ 57 in 1877
International Falls... 50 in 2000
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 28 48 33 46 / 0 0 0 0
INL 26 48 32 42 / 0 0 10 0
BRD 28 51 33 48 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 24 50 32 48 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 26 50 33 49 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde
CLIMATE...WM/Huyck
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
953 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
.UPDATE...
The previous forecast is in good shape. Two main changes made.
First: We broke down the weather forecast for Friday keeping the
20 percent chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms only across
the southeast in the morning and leaving it across most areas east
of a Bowie to Lampasas line during the afternoon. This is mainly
based on the HRRR and TTU WRF. Second: Have increased the wind
speeds a little on Saturday based on forecast pressure gradient
shown by the NAM.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 556 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/
VFR conditions are expected through 06z Saturday. As an upper
level low currently over northern Mexico moves northeast, we will
have an increase in mid-level moisture across North and Central
Texas Friday. There will be a slight chance of showers and maybe
some elevated isolated thunderstorms Friday east of a K0F2-KLZZ
line. The chances at the TAF sites is way too low to mention in
the TAFs at this time. South winds 8 to 10 knots this evening
will become south around 15 knots by 15z Friday and winds will
back around to the southeast around 10 knots after 00z Saturday.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/
Mostly sunny skies prevail across North Texas this afternoon with
temperatures running about 5 degrees above normal and generally
light southerly winds. The nice weather will continue for the next
couple of days before the approach of a strong storm system late
this weekend that will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area.
For the remainder of today and tonight...light southerly winds
will prevail under partly cloudy skies. Water vapor imagery shows
a fairly large upper low spinning over north-central Mexico that
will head in our direction overnight and this will spread some mid
level moisture into the region after dark. This should result in
an increase in cloud cover by morning. Temperatures tonight will
be about 10 degrees warmer than last night.
For Friday...as the core of the upper trough gets closer to North
Texas...lapse rates will steepen. The bulk of the mid level
moisture that gets transported north tonight will begin to spread
off to the northeast by mid morning. However...forecast soundings
indicate that even shallow moisture above 700 mb in the presence
of these steep lapse rates could result in some high based
convection. Despite mostly sunny skies...by late afternoon as
stronger forcing for ascent spreads across the area...we could see
some isolated high based showers or possibly a thunderstorm. Will
have a 20 PoP to account for this. The main threat with any
convection tomorrow would be strong winds and small hail.
Saturday should be mostly quiet across the region with mid level
ridging passing overhead. Some low precip chances may linger
across the far northeast counties where weak ascent persists in
the presence of low level moisture. Otherwise it will be partly
cloudy with temperatures warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
As we head into Sunday...a much strong upper trough will dig well
into Mexico. Increasing deep layer southerly flow will become
established across the Southern Plains by late in the day. This
will help rapidly transport Gulf moisture northward and will allow
a fairly narrow axis of modest surface based instability to
develop from the Coastal Bend northward into North Texas (mainly
west of I-35). As stronger forcing for ascent spreads in from the
west during the late afternoon...scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop. Lapse rates are initially
fairly steep with strong deep layer shear profiles...although
unidirectional. This initial activity Sunday afternoon could pose
a low end severe hail risk.
Of more concern Sunday night will be an increasing threat for
training precipitation echoes...especially across the southern
half of the CWA. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
to overspread North Texas and deep southerly flow will generally
suggest that these will move quickly from south to north. The
whole area of precipitation will gradually move east overnight
Sunday night into Monday morning. Precipitable water values
forecast to be around 1.6" in our area will be near record highs.
As of now...it looks like the strongest forcing will pass to the
south of us...which would likely mean the heaviest rain would stay
to the southeast of our area...closer to the coast.
Nonetheless...with recent rainfall over the last few days...any
additional training heavy rains could produce some localized flash
flooding. All of this activity should move to the east during the
day on Monday.
Weak shortwave ridging in the wake of this system should result in
mostly dry conditions through mid week with temperatures in the
70s.
Dunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 46 71 55 78 55 / 0 20 5 5 0
Waco 45 71 53 81 57 / 0 20 5 0 5
Paris 42 68 52 69 52 / 0 20 10 20 0
Denton 45 71 52 76 52 / 0 20 5 5 0
McKinney 44 69 53 73 52 / 0 20 5 10 0
Dallas 48 71 56 76 57 / 0 20 5 5 0
Terrell 45 69 54 76 55 / 0 20 5 10 0
Corsicana 46 71 55 76 58 / 0 20 5 5 5
Temple 46 71 54 81 57 / 5 20 5 0 10
Mineral Wells 43 72 47 78 51 / 0 10 0 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
58/58
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
634 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017
12Z raobs/latest wv imagery and RAP analysis show a confluent nw
flow aloft over the Upr Great Lks btwn deep closed lo over New
England and an upr rdg over the Plains. At the sfc, hi pres rdg axis
extending fm near Hudson Bay to Lower MI is moving slowly to the e.
Les that was ongoing this mrng over the ern cwa has ended with the
passage of the sfc rdg axis, but plenty of mainly mid/hi clds are
present over the cwa associated with general waa on the wrn flank of
the slowly departing hi pres rdg. Local radars show a band of hier
returns extending fm sw Ontario acrs wrn Lk Sup to over wrn Upr MI
to the ne of sharp h85 warm fnt separating 12Z h85 temps as hi as
10C at The Pas Manitoba and 13C at Aberdeen SDakota/Bismarck fm -7C
at YPL and GRB. Although the dry lyr shown btwn h85-6 on the 12Z INL
raob as well as some very dry near sfc air over the cwa are limiting
the coverage of the hier returns/pcpn reaching the grnd, some sites
near Thunder Bay have reported some lgt sn/flurries under persistent
lo clds with upslope sse flow off Lk Sup. Farther upstream in the
Plains on the warm side of the sfc warm fnt, temps have surged well
into the 40s/50s.
Main fcst concerns in the short term focus on cld trends/temps.
Late today/tngt...Axis of some sharper isentropic ascent/hier rh
depicted on the 290K sfc /h8-7/ extending thru the central cwa late
this aftn is fcst to drift slowly to the e ahead of aprchg h85 warm
fnt. Band of thicker mid clds/perhaps some flurries associated with
this sharper waa wl shift to the e and exit the ern cwa late tngt.
Since the llvl flow is fcst to remain more sse ahead of the aprchg
sfc warm fnt most of the ngt, concerned some lo clds may linger,
especially in areas that would experience upslope flow off Lk MI as
is obsvd right now near Thunder Bay with upsloping off Lk Sup. With
a steady s wind fcst at h925 and some clds, expect a much warmer
overngt than early this mrng.
Fri...As the sfc warm fnt shifts slowly to the ene, expect lingering
lo clds to give way to more sunshine w-e. Over the far w fm IWD to
Ontonagon, max temps wl likely reach at least 50 with more sunshine,
a downslope wind component, and under h85 temps fcst to climb as hi
as 12C. But over the e with more persistent cld cover and later
arrival of the sfc warm fnt, the mercury may have a hard time rising
much above the freezing mark.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 358 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017
Guidance pulled no surprises in the forecast upper level pattern
compared to last couple days through most of the long term. Upper
ridge over central Conus moves across the Great Lakes Fri into Fri
night before it gets flattened by stronger shortwave/sfc low
crossing northern Ontario Fri night into Sat. Models are not showing
as much low-level moisture this weekend so that favors warmer
temperatures and stronger mixing potential. Mixing to 925mb-900mb
supports highs reaching the 50s Sat, especially over west half of
Upper Michigan. Continued to favor bias corrected ECMWF and NAEFS
MOS guidance. SW-WSW flow will result in temps staying in the 40s
over east cwa downwind of Lk Michigan. On Sun winds shifting NW
behind the sfc low crossing northern Ontario and Quebec on Sat
should keep eastern cwa cool again with gradient flow resulting in
readings staying in upper 30s or near 40F. Less lake moderation over
west half will again favor readings back above 50F over west half.
Both days could feature local lake breezes even where gradient flow
is not strong.
Record highs for the weekend (2/18 and 2/19) at various locations:
Ironwood: 2/18 is 58 (1981) and 2/19 is 60 (1930)
Iron Mtn: 2/18 is 51 (1930) and 2/19 is 62 (1930)
NWS MQT: 2/18 is 52 (1997) and 2/19 is 46 (1988)
Mqt city: 2/18 is 52 (1954) and 2/19 is 62 (1930)
Newberry: 2/18 is 46 (1997) and 2/19 is 47 (1994)
Another ridge builds across central Conus to Great Lakes Sun into
Mon. Stronger shortwave/sfc low moves into scntrl Canada late Mon
night into Tue. Looks like main precip from the low does not move in
until Mon night, so increased temps on Mon since h85 temps aloft
will be warmer than the weekend. SE winds ahead of the low should
keep central and east cooler than the west, even though they may see
more sunshine into the aftn. Since upper Great Lakes will solidly be
in warm sector with the system (H85 temps 8-10), looking at ptype of
rain Mon night into Tue morning. Strength of sfc-h85 moisture
advection surging into Upper Great Lakes on h85 winds SW at 40-50kt
with sfc dwpnts over 40F could also support risk of thunderstorms.
Showalter index never falls blo 0C but the overall pattern of lower
SI/s from models and strength of moisture advection and persistence
of those signals supported putting in slight chances over far west
cwa Mon night.
Rest of long term is muddled. Large scale flow turns more zonal by
midweek but there are hints of additional weaker shortwaves working
through the flow pattern. Best chance for precip, mainly in the form
of rain showers would be over scntrl Tue night into Wed morning.
Then somewhat stronger shortwave arriving later on Wed could lead to
rain and snow showers turning over to snow showers Wed night into
Thu with best chances over the north near Lk Superior. GFS coldest
with h85 temps so could be mixed precip issues even into Thu if
warmer ECMWF and GEM work out. For now just went with colder GFS and
have mainly snow showers but chances are low.
Just beyond the long term, central Conus storm system is still
showing up at the end of the model runs for next Fri/Sat (24-25
Feb). GFS and somewhat the GEM are more closed off and separate
looking with h5 low and associated sfc low. GFS is quite different
than before as it would now keep the system mainly south across the
central Mississippi river valley. ECMWF and to a degree the GEM keep
system more progressive and bring precip into Upper Lakes next Fri.
ECMWF would be too warm for any snow while with the GEM idea though
we would be on the northern edge of heavier qpf, it would be plenty
cold enough for snow. We will have to wait and see if those wanting
a return to winter like weather will get their wish or whether it
will just be a continuation of the rather mild stretch we will be
experiencing this weekend through much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 631 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017
Although there wl be considerable mid/high clouds into this
evening ahead of an approaching warm front, expect VFR conditions
to dominate. But later tonight, an upslope sse wind off Lake MI
wl probably bring some low clds into SAW as the approaching warm
frontal inversion lowers. These clouds are likely to linger thru
Fri morning before lifting in the afternoon. Downslope nature of
the southerly flow at CMX and IWD wl limit the low cloud potential
there, so fcst VFR conditions to predominate there. &&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 340 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017
Expect ssw winds up to 25 kts under sharp pres gradient on the
wester flank of retreating hi pres to prevail thru Fri night. Then
following the passage of a lo pres thru nw Ontario and accompanying
lo pres trof over Lake Superior, winds will shift to the wnw and
increase up to 25-30 kts on Sat/Sat night. These stronger winds will
diminish as early as Sat night over the west with this trend
continuing thru Sun over the entire lake ahead of an approaching hi
pres ridge. After this hi pres ridge shifts to the e on Sun night, e
veering s winds will increase up to 30 kts on Mon under the
sharpening pres gradient between the departing ridge and a lo pres
moving ne thru the Plains. Expect winds to shift to the w on Tue
following the exit of the lo pres into Ontario/passage of associated
cool front. Since a trailing hi pres will quickly approach and
weaken the pres gradient, wind speeds should diminish steadily on
Tue.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...KC