Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/17/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
930 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 921 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Just adjusted cloud cover lower across much of the central and east as only the far west has any clouds as of 9 pm CST. Some light rain showing up on Billings radar but HRRR runs do not bring this into the west neither does CONSShort guidance. Will leave out pops tonight for now. UPDATE Issued at 617 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Based primarily on current wind conditions and snow cover lowered the minimum temperatures across the James River Valley and the western Devils lake Basin. For the sky grids slowed the cloud increase until late later this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Mild and mainly dry conditions highlight the short term period. Currently, upper level ridge centered over the Great Plains into south central Canada. Westerly surface flow and 850mb temperatures of +10 to +15C contributing to another mild day. SCT-BKN upper level clouds and some areas seeing light winds under 5 MPH has hindered the warmup in some locations across west and central ND, while other areas have warmed above their previous forecast highs. Thus a tricky afternoon temperature forecast but overall mild and well above seasonal normals. Ridge axis continues to our east tonight allowing southwest flow into the region and a cold front into the central Dakotas. This is expected to be a dry frontal passage with the main result an increase in clouds from west to east in advance of an embedded wave. Temperatures tonight remain mild in the upper 20s to mid 30s. The potent embedded S/WV trough slides east into eastern Montana by 12Z Friday, then across North Dakota Friday daytime. Models have been keying in on bringing QPF to my north Friday morning/afternoon so introduced chance POPs there. Cooler temperatures due to weak CAA and more sky cover, though still very mild in the upper 30s and 40s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 The long term period will be highlighted by continued mild temperatures through early next week, followed by a cool-down thereafter. For precipitation chances, three well defined waves look to bring moisture to our region Sunday night-Monday, across the north Tuesday/Tuesday night, then again late in the period Thursday/Thursday night. Overall models are in fair agreement with all three waves and thus the Forecast Builder model blend inserted high chance to likely POPs for all three above mentioned periods across the region. Temperatures profiles suggest a mix of rain/snow for the first two S/WV`s as we remain warm. The late week system will occur under cooler conditions favoring snow, with accumulations very possible. Definitely a more active period beginning Sunday night and onwards. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 617 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 VFR conditions will prevail across the region again tonight and Friday. Low pressure in northern Saskatchewan will keep a dry southwest to west windflow across the region. Increasing winds aloft will cause some wind shear conditions surface to 2 thousand agl after 08-12z. A slight chance of rain after 21z northwest and north central will bring scattered to broken clouds 35 hundred to 6 thousand agl KISN-KMOT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WAA SHORT TERM...NH LONG TERM...NH AVIATION...WAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
550 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 506 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 At 300 PM...A prominent upper-level ridge was over the central US and central Canada, and a warm front extended from northern Manitoba to western Minnesota and into Iowa. The Northland had scattered upper-level cloud cover and breezy southerly winds, except the Duluth area had light easterly flow from Lake Superior. Temperatures across the Northland were in the 30s. Tonight...The warm front will move through the Northland. Some partial clearing by sunset will contribute to radiational cooling and the development of the near-surface inversion. Light winds will develop. Several models are indicating stratus and/or fog will develop tonight. The NAM, GFS, RAP, and HRRR are among these models. Considering the added moisture from the today`s melting snowpack, think this is certainly possible. Some of the models seem too excessive with the extent of the low-level stratus though, a pattern seen over the past few weeks, so focused on forecasting tonight`s cloudier skies to where the models had good agreement on where the depth of the saturated layer will reach about 925 to 900 hPa. This resulted in forecasting broken/overcast cloud cover for the Iron Range and inland Arrowhead, as well as a bit for the Duluth area. Think this stratus will develop after sunset. There will also be some lingering upper-level clouds tonight, so the 40% to 60% cloud cover forecast for other areas not only accounts for this upper cloud cover, but also for the possibility of some low stratus. Think there is a bit too much wind flow to add fog to the forecast, but there could be isolated fog. Lows should be in the middle to upper 20s. Friday...Very unusually warm air will build into the Northland amidst westerly winds aloft. For instance, the 850 hPa temperatures will build to 9 to 13 degrees Celsius. A very shallow inversion, and the lack of wind flow in the shallow mixing layer, though, will prevent the Northland from fully realizing this warmth. Nonetheless, light southwest flow and sunny skies will help temperatures climb to near-record territory. Leaned on the warmest model guidance, namely towards the regional Canadian, given the scenario. Avoided forecasting quite as warm as the regional Canadian, though, given the lack of low-level mixing. Highs should reach well into the 40s, and in some areas the low 50s. The forecast and respective record temperatures for the date include Duluth (48 and a record of 51 in 1951), International Falls (52 and a record of 1907), and Brainerd (51 and a record of 54 in 1951). .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 506 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Unseasonable warmth will continue through the weekend, but a storm system is forecast to bring a mix of rain and snow, and a chance of isolated thunderstorms, to the Northland early next week. A high-amplitude ridge axis aloft will be located east of the Northland Friday evening with a potent shortwave trough stretching from the northern Canadian Prairies into the Northern Plains. Moisture is forecast to be extremely limited with this system. A period of increased cloud cover will be the only sensible weather feature to mark the passage of the system`s weak cool front. Very mild conditions are expected through the weekend and into early next week. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to middle 50s with overnight lows from the middle 20s to the upper 30s. The mild temperatures should work to melt some of the snowpack across the area, which will support the development of fog overnight Saturday, Sunday, and early Monday morning. A more significant pattern shift will arrive late Sunday afternoon continuing through mid-week. A deep upper trough will advance eastward across the Rockies Sunday and into the Midwest by Monday. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast in Colorado and Wyoming early Monday morning with the storm system lifting northeastward into northwest Ontario by late Monday night. With the upper-level ridge pushing farther east of the region, southerly flow and a surge of Gulf moisture will be available for the early week system. A mix of rain and snow is favored for our northern zones Monday and Monday night, with mainly rain across the southern half of the CWA. The deterministic models all have non-zero MUCAPE along and ahead of the advancing cold front, so have introduced isolated thunderstorms with the rain showers Monday afternoon and evening. Another weak disturbance will move across the Northland late Tuesday night and Wednesday yielding a slight chance of rain or snow showers, mainly over far northern Minnesota. Temperatures are expected to remain above to much above normal through Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 550 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 VFR conditions were occurring across the Northland as of early evening. Continued warm air advection will lead to increasing clouds overnight, first mid and upper level clouds and possibly lower ceilings as the night progresses. The models remain mixed on if LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings form overnight and how widespread they would become. The combination of lowering winds, added moisture from snowmelt, and warm air advection will bring the threat for lower ceilings to portions of the Northland. We did delay bringing in the lower ceilings at most TAF`s tonight by a couple of hours. There may also be some fog that forms tonight. We left the mention of drizzle/freezing drizzle out of the forecast for now as the probability is too low to include at this time. Conditions will improve to VFR through the day Friday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 506 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Record Warmest Lows for February 17... Duluth................ 34 in 1981 International Falls... 33 in 1998 Record Highs for February 17... Duluth................ 52 in 1981 International Falls... 52 in 1907 Record Warmest Lows for February 18... Duluth................ 35 in 1981 International Falls... 35 in 1981 Record Highs for February 18... Duluth................ 53 in 1981 International Falls... 49 in 1954 Record Warmest Lows for February 19... Duluth................ 35 in 1930 International Falls... 32 in 2016 Record Highs for February 19... Duluth................ 51 in 1930 International Falls... 47 in 1994 Record Warmest Lows for February 20... Duluth................ 33 in 1954 International Falls... 32 in 1915 Record Highs for February 20... Duluth................ 54 in 1877 International Falls... 48 in 1990 Record Warmest Lows for February 21... Duluth................ 33 in 1878 International Falls... 29 in 1981 Record Highs for February 21... Duluth................ 57 in 1877 International Falls... 50 in 2000 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 28 48 33 46 / 0 0 0 0 INL 26 48 32 42 / 0 0 10 0 BRD 28 51 33 48 / 0 0 0 0 HYR 24 50 32 48 / 0 0 0 0 ASX 26 50 33 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Grochocinski LONG TERM...Huyck AVIATION...Melde CLIMATE...WM/Huyck
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
953 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 .UPDATE... The previous forecast is in good shape. Two main changes made. First: We broke down the weather forecast for Friday keeping the 20 percent chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms only across the southeast in the morning and leaving it across most areas east of a Bowie to Lampasas line during the afternoon. This is mainly based on the HRRR and TTU WRF. Second: Have increased the wind speeds a little on Saturday based on forecast pressure gradient shown by the NAM. 58 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/ VFR conditions are expected through 06z Saturday. As an upper level low currently over northern Mexico moves northeast, we will have an increase in mid-level moisture across North and Central Texas Friday. There will be a slight chance of showers and maybe some elevated isolated thunderstorms Friday east of a K0F2-KLZZ line. The chances at the TAF sites is way too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. South winds 8 to 10 knots this evening will become south around 15 knots by 15z Friday and winds will back around to the southeast around 10 knots after 00z Saturday. 58 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/ Mostly sunny skies prevail across North Texas this afternoon with temperatures running about 5 degrees above normal and generally light southerly winds. The nice weather will continue for the next couple of days before the approach of a strong storm system late this weekend that will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. For the remainder of today and tonight...light southerly winds will prevail under partly cloudy skies. Water vapor imagery shows a fairly large upper low spinning over north-central Mexico that will head in our direction overnight and this will spread some mid level moisture into the region after dark. This should result in an increase in cloud cover by morning. Temperatures tonight will be about 10 degrees warmer than last night. For the core of the upper trough gets closer to North Texas...lapse rates will steepen. The bulk of the mid level moisture that gets transported north tonight will begin to spread off to the northeast by mid morning. However...forecast soundings indicate that even shallow moisture above 700 mb in the presence of these steep lapse rates could result in some high based convection. Despite mostly sunny late afternoon as stronger forcing for ascent spreads across the area...we could see some isolated high based showers or possibly a thunderstorm. Will have a 20 PoP to account for this. The main threat with any convection tomorrow would be strong winds and small hail. Saturday should be mostly quiet across the region with mid level ridging passing overhead. Some low precip chances may linger across the far northeast counties where weak ascent persists in the presence of low level moisture. Otherwise it will be partly cloudy with temperatures warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s. As we head into Sunday...a much strong upper trough will dig well into Mexico. Increasing deep layer southerly flow will become established across the Southern Plains by late in the day. This will help rapidly transport Gulf moisture northward and will allow a fairly narrow axis of modest surface based instability to develop from the Coastal Bend northward into North Texas (mainly west of I-35). As stronger forcing for ascent spreads in from the west during the late afternoon...scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Lapse rates are initially fairly steep with strong deep layer shear profiles...although unidirectional. This initial activity Sunday afternoon could pose a low end severe hail risk. Of more concern Sunday night will be an increasing threat for training precipitation echoes...especially across the southern half of the CWA. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to overspread North Texas and deep southerly flow will generally suggest that these will move quickly from south to north. The whole area of precipitation will gradually move east overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Precipitable water values forecast to be around 1.6" in our area will be near record highs. As of looks like the strongest forcing will pass to the south of us...which would likely mean the heaviest rain would stay to the southeast of our area...closer to the coast. Nonetheless...with recent rainfall over the last few days...any additional training heavy rains could produce some localized flash flooding. All of this activity should move to the east during the day on Monday. Weak shortwave ridging in the wake of this system should result in mostly dry conditions through mid week with temperatures in the 70s. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 46 71 55 78 55 / 0 20 5 5 0 Waco 45 71 53 81 57 / 0 20 5 0 5 Paris 42 68 52 69 52 / 0 20 10 20 0 Denton 45 71 52 76 52 / 0 20 5 5 0 McKinney 44 69 53 73 52 / 0 20 5 10 0 Dallas 48 71 56 76 57 / 0 20 5 5 0 Terrell 45 69 54 76 55 / 0 20 5 10 0 Corsicana 46 71 55 76 58 / 0 20 5 5 5 Temple 46 71 54 81 57 / 5 20 5 0 10 Mineral Wells 43 72 47 78 51 / 0 10 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 58/58
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
634 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 340 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017 12Z raobs/latest wv imagery and RAP analysis show a confluent nw flow aloft over the Upr Great Lks btwn deep closed lo over New England and an upr rdg over the Plains. At the sfc, hi pres rdg axis extending fm near Hudson Bay to Lower MI is moving slowly to the e. Les that was ongoing this mrng over the ern cwa has ended with the passage of the sfc rdg axis, but plenty of mainly mid/hi clds are present over the cwa associated with general waa on the wrn flank of the slowly departing hi pres rdg. Local radars show a band of hier returns extending fm sw Ontario acrs wrn Lk Sup to over wrn Upr MI to the ne of sharp h85 warm fnt separating 12Z h85 temps as hi as 10C at The Pas Manitoba and 13C at Aberdeen SDakota/Bismarck fm -7C at YPL and GRB. Although the dry lyr shown btwn h85-6 on the 12Z INL raob as well as some very dry near sfc air over the cwa are limiting the coverage of the hier returns/pcpn reaching the grnd, some sites near Thunder Bay have reported some lgt sn/flurries under persistent lo clds with upslope sse flow off Lk Sup. Farther upstream in the Plains on the warm side of the sfc warm fnt, temps have surged well into the 40s/50s. Main fcst concerns in the short term focus on cld trends/temps. Late today/tngt...Axis of some sharper isentropic ascent/hier rh depicted on the 290K sfc /h8-7/ extending thru the central cwa late this aftn is fcst to drift slowly to the e ahead of aprchg h85 warm fnt. Band of thicker mid clds/perhaps some flurries associated with this sharper waa wl shift to the e and exit the ern cwa late tngt. Since the llvl flow is fcst to remain more sse ahead of the aprchg sfc warm fnt most of the ngt, concerned some lo clds may linger, especially in areas that would experience upslope flow off Lk MI as is obsvd right now near Thunder Bay with upsloping off Lk Sup. With a steady s wind fcst at h925 and some clds, expect a much warmer overngt than early this mrng. Fri...As the sfc warm fnt shifts slowly to the ene, expect lingering lo clds to give way to more sunshine w-e. Over the far w fm IWD to Ontonagon, max temps wl likely reach at least 50 with more sunshine, a downslope wind component, and under h85 temps fcst to climb as hi as 12C. But over the e with more persistent cld cover and later arrival of the sfc warm fnt, the mercury may have a hard time rising much above the freezing mark. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 358 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017 Guidance pulled no surprises in the forecast upper level pattern compared to last couple days through most of the long term. Upper ridge over central Conus moves across the Great Lakes Fri into Fri night before it gets flattened by stronger shortwave/sfc low crossing northern Ontario Fri night into Sat. Models are not showing as much low-level moisture this weekend so that favors warmer temperatures and stronger mixing potential. Mixing to 925mb-900mb supports highs reaching the 50s Sat, especially over west half of Upper Michigan. Continued to favor bias corrected ECMWF and NAEFS MOS guidance. SW-WSW flow will result in temps staying in the 40s over east cwa downwind of Lk Michigan. On Sun winds shifting NW behind the sfc low crossing northern Ontario and Quebec on Sat should keep eastern cwa cool again with gradient flow resulting in readings staying in upper 30s or near 40F. Less lake moderation over west half will again favor readings back above 50F over west half. Both days could feature local lake breezes even where gradient flow is not strong. Record highs for the weekend (2/18 and 2/19) at various locations: Ironwood: 2/18 is 58 (1981) and 2/19 is 60 (1930) Iron Mtn: 2/18 is 51 (1930) and 2/19 is 62 (1930) NWS MQT: 2/18 is 52 (1997) and 2/19 is 46 (1988) Mqt city: 2/18 is 52 (1954) and 2/19 is 62 (1930) Newberry: 2/18 is 46 (1997) and 2/19 is 47 (1994) Another ridge builds across central Conus to Great Lakes Sun into Mon. Stronger shortwave/sfc low moves into scntrl Canada late Mon night into Tue. Looks like main precip from the low does not move in until Mon night, so increased temps on Mon since h85 temps aloft will be warmer than the weekend. SE winds ahead of the low should keep central and east cooler than the west, even though they may see more sunshine into the aftn. Since upper Great Lakes will solidly be in warm sector with the system (H85 temps 8-10), looking at ptype of rain Mon night into Tue morning. Strength of sfc-h85 moisture advection surging into Upper Great Lakes on h85 winds SW at 40-50kt with sfc dwpnts over 40F could also support risk of thunderstorms. Showalter index never falls blo 0C but the overall pattern of lower SI/s from models and strength of moisture advection and persistence of those signals supported putting in slight chances over far west cwa Mon night. Rest of long term is muddled. Large scale flow turns more zonal by midweek but there are hints of additional weaker shortwaves working through the flow pattern. Best chance for precip, mainly in the form of rain showers would be over scntrl Tue night into Wed morning. Then somewhat stronger shortwave arriving later on Wed could lead to rain and snow showers turning over to snow showers Wed night into Thu with best chances over the north near Lk Superior. GFS coldest with h85 temps so could be mixed precip issues even into Thu if warmer ECMWF and GEM work out. For now just went with colder GFS and have mainly snow showers but chances are low. Just beyond the long term, central Conus storm system is still showing up at the end of the model runs for next Fri/Sat (24-25 Feb). GFS and somewhat the GEM are more closed off and separate looking with h5 low and associated sfc low. GFS is quite different than before as it would now keep the system mainly south across the central Mississippi river valley. ECMWF and to a degree the GEM keep system more progressive and bring precip into Upper Lakes next Fri. ECMWF would be too warm for any snow while with the GEM idea though we would be on the northern edge of heavier qpf, it would be plenty cold enough for snow. We will have to wait and see if those wanting a return to winter like weather will get their wish or whether it will just be a continuation of the rather mild stretch we will be experiencing this weekend through much of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 631 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017 Although there wl be considerable mid/high clouds into this evening ahead of an approaching warm front, expect VFR conditions to dominate. But later tonight, an upslope sse wind off Lake MI wl probably bring some low clds into SAW as the approaching warm frontal inversion lowers. These clouds are likely to linger thru Fri morning before lifting in the afternoon. Downslope nature of the southerly flow at CMX and IWD wl limit the low cloud potential there, so fcst VFR conditions to predominate there. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 340 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017 Expect ssw winds up to 25 kts under sharp pres gradient on the wester flank of retreating hi pres to prevail thru Fri night. Then following the passage of a lo pres thru nw Ontario and accompanying lo pres trof over Lake Superior, winds will shift to the wnw and increase up to 25-30 kts on Sat/Sat night. These stronger winds will diminish as early as Sat night over the west with this trend continuing thru Sun over the entire lake ahead of an approaching hi pres ridge. After this hi pres ridge shifts to the e on Sun night, e veering s winds will increase up to 30 kts on Mon under the sharpening pres gradient between the departing ridge and a lo pres moving ne thru the Plains. Expect winds to shift to the w on Tue following the exit of the lo pres into Ontario/passage of associated cool front. Since a trailing hi pres will quickly approach and weaken the pres gradient, wind speeds should diminish steadily on Tue. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...Voss MARINE...KC