Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/15/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
953 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
Main forecast problem tonight will be possible fog development.
Currently, mainly clear skies across western and central ND. There
is some high cirrus dropping south through Saskatchewan that will
be moving into the western half of the state shortly. In the east,
a band of mid clouds over Manitoba is beginning to move into
eastern ND and may clip eastern portions of central ND overnight.
Most of the forecast area is cloud free. Just this past hour a
couple of observation sites (Linton and Harvey) briefly dropped
down to 5SM visibility, otherwise no fog was reported. A few
webcams did look a little fuzzy. Temperature/dewpoint spreads are
low and although short term models are overzealous in developing
fog across central ND this evening, the potential is certainly
there for areas of fog as we head into the overnight hours. Latest
NAM and it`s numerical guidance is not as robust with low level
moisture and fog over central ND tonight, but with current trends
of low temp/dwpt spreads, will basically stay the course with
patchy fog along and east of the Missouri River. As warm advection
increases from west to east late tonight, models suggest any
stratus/fog will be shunted eastward toward eastern portions of
central ND, thus this area looks to be the most favorable to see
low stratus/fog tonight into Wednesday morning.
Made some minor adjustments to temperatures in the far north
central where temperatures dropped to below forecast lows briefly
this evening, but have since rebounded some with mid level clouds
beginning to appear. Updated text products will be sent shortly.
UPDATE Issued at 622 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
A backdoor cold front is situated across central North Dakota
this evening and will eventually move back east as a warm front
tomorrow. In the meantime moisture convergence between northerly
flow over eastern ND and a return southerly flow getting
established over the west will provide an area for possible fog
development tonight across central ND. Mesoscale models are
hinting and some fog/stratus developing across central ND and
latest forecast has a good handle on this. Current dewpoints are
in the mid 20s to lower 30s and forecast lows are in the upper
teens to mid 20s, which indicated the possibility of fog
development. Winds will be lighter tonight with good radiational
cooling at least through the evening. There may be a band of mid
clouds dropping south later tonight. Will continue to monitor but
see no need for any significant changes at this time.
For the early evening update we lowered sky cover a bit across
the central this evening. We populated the latest sensible weather
elements and interpolated to mid evening temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
Warm air advection highlights the short term period with record
highs in the west. Patchy fog/clouds along and east of the
Missouri River highlight the tonight through Wednesday morning
time period.
Visible imagery shows mostly sunny conditions with high clouds
pushing from northwest to southeast. The latest water vapor imagery
indicates a shortwave now into southeast Saskatchewan, initialized
well by the RAP13, will advance to near Minot by 22z/4PM CST, and
into Linton by 00z/6PM CST. Again, expect mostly high clouds,
with some mid level cloud component per upstream observations and
BUFKIT soundings through early evening central ND.
One additional minor shortwave now over south central Alberta will
slide across western and central ND Wednesday with little or no
consequence at this time.
Warm air advection continues to strengthen from west to east
tonight. Snowmelt resulting in a shallow moist boundary layer
with warmer air/stable conditions aloft will result in patchy fog
and/or stratus developing tonight mainly along and east of the
Missouri River. Used the HRRR as a basis for the clouds and
visibility trends. It appears the James River Valley could hold
onto the lower clouds through Wednesday morning, and this can be
refined later this evening as higher resolution model extends
farther out through this period.
Otherwise a mid/upper level ridge axis over the northern rockies
will gradually shift/tilt into the northern high plains Thursday.
In doing so, warm air advection will peak Thursday with 850mb
temperatures forecast of +12C to +14C. Used a blend of the
previous forecasts and the max of all GFE models. Still looking at
record high temperatures Wednesday at Dickinson and near record
highs at Williston as highs reach between 50F and 55F. Elsewhere
highs will be in the upper 40s central to upper 30s Turtle
Mountains.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
Record high temperatures are expected at Dickinson Thursday with
near record highs at Williston and Minot. Expect highs in the low
to mid 50s west and central to lower 60s southwest. The coolest
readings will occur from the Turtle Mountains south into the James
River Valley with highs in the mid 40s.
As the ridge axis shifts east Friday, the mid/upper height fields
flatten as a series of shortwaves begin to eject from the west
coast into the central/northern plains. Thus, Friday through the
extended period and beyond, we will see a return towards a west
coast trough, resulting in a more active period for western and
central ND. Expect to see the effects of this pattern change
really begin to show up Monday as a progressive shortwave trough
slides through with a chance of rain and snow. Another shortwave
is forecast for Tuesday night into Wednesday, with perhaps a
stronger system Thursday or Friday. However beyond the Tuesday
time period, the GFS and ECMWF diverge on the path/location of the
stronger system late next week. High temperatures through early
next week are forecast mostly in the lower to mid 40s most areas
with upper 30s north.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 933 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
Vfr cigs/vsbys until 06z Wednesday. Thereafter, mainly along and
east of the Missouri River, KISN/KMOT/KBIS/KJMS will be
susceptible to patchy fog and mvfr vsbys at times until 17z
Wednesday. However high resolution model trends indicate that KJMS
will experience the lowest cigs of 500FT/IFR cigs, and/or mvfr
vsbys from 06z Weds through 17z Weds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
Unseasonably warm temperatures across the region will continue
this week and will speed the snow melt. Up to this point, the melt
rate has been very mild with water being trapped in the remaining
snow, or in the upper few inches of the ground. As warm
temperatures persist, pathways will open for meltwater to reach
streams and rivers, and levels will rise.
Overall, this early melt should be beneficial with helping
remove excess moisture from river basins in the southern and
western parts of North Dakota. Watersheds including the Knife,
Heart, and Cannonball Rivers should be on the watch for rising
water levels and an increased risk of ice related high water near
the end of the week. To a lesser extent, the Apple and Beaver
Creek basins may also see the onset of runoff this week as their
robust snowpack proves more resilient.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1008 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A little light snow is expected during the overnight hours...but
the Wednesday and Thursday time period will feature the most
active weather. Snow showers and snow squalls...producing quick
bursts of heavy snow and near whiteout conditions...are expected
Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday night into Thursday will feature
more widespread snow...especially in the mountains. Difficult
travel is expected. Quieter weather returns for the weekend with
moderating temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1008 PM EST Tuesday...Finally starting to see some light
snow moving into northern New York and the northern half of
Vermont. This will continue through the overnight hours with any
snow accumulations generally less than an inch.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 343 PM EST Tuesday...Winter Storm Warnings for Western Slopes
and Northeast Kingdom from 12z Weds through 00z Thursday for 6
to 12 inches of snow.
Winter weather advisory elsewhere for 3 to 6 inches with localized
higher amounts across the northwest facing slopes of the Adirondack
Mountains.
An extremely challenging forecast with regards to both synoptic and
mesoscale features and placement of heaviest snowfall/qpf fields.
Latest global models are in decent agreement with tracking potent
northern stream energy and associated clipper like area of low
pres...but have no clue on placement of inverted surface trof
associated with yet another coastal bomb and the potential for
a strong blocked flow/upslope event.
For weds morning...GFS/NAM and RAP in good agreement showing ribbon
of 925mb to 850mb fgen forcing and associated 850 to 500mb moisture
lifting from southwest to northeast across our cwa. This weak
forcing and moisture will produce a general light snow with
accumulations of a dusting to maybe a couple of inches...especially
mountains.
We see a brief break between warm front lift and potent 5h energy
and digging mid/upper level trof approaching our region by 15z Weds.
The combination of surface heating...cooling aloft (-38C at 500MB)
will create very steep mid level (700 to 500mb >8.0 C/kg...along
with a band of moderate 850 to 700mb fgen forcing associated with
cold front. Have also noted a very strong Elevated Mixed Layer (EML)
signal...showing instability aloft. This energy and instability...
combined with deep 850 to 500mb moisture...supports the potential
for widespread snow showers and embedded snow squalls. These
snow squalls will be capable of quickly dropping vis below 1/2sm
with a quick couple inches of snow possible...creating hazardous
driving conditions.
Still seeing lots of convective signals in the high resolution data
with high composite reflective values and omega bullseyes. Thinking
snowfall will be highly depend upon where the convective elements
occur...with amounts ranging from a dusting to 3 or 4 inches in the
most persistent snow squalls/snow showers. Some graupel and a rumble
of thunder is possible.
As potent energy transfers to the coast...rapid cyclogenesis occurs
off cape cod on Weds Night...with weak inverted trof like feature
extending across central/northern VT. Pin pointing exactly where
this feature setup...is extremely challenging and will make or break
the forecast as we move forward...in terms of the location of
heaviest snowfall/qpf. This feature combined with mid/upper level
closed 5h/7h circulation will advect back deep Atlantic moisture
into our region with a general widespread light snow for Eastern
Dacks point eastward. Meanwhile...a band of moderate snow is likely
across the Northeast Kingdom where moisture is deeper and lift is
stronger associated with inverted trof. This produces a general 2 to
4 inches...except 4 to 8 inches across the northeast Kingdom on Weds
Night.
Late Weds night through Thursday Night our attention turns to a very
favorable period of upslope precipitation and associated strongly
blocked flow with froude values between 0.25 and 0.60. Have
integrated the mesoscale models to reflective qpf/snowfall in the
grids...with highest values along the western slopes from Camels
Hump to Mt Mansfield to Jay Peak...and west toward the Champlain
Valley. Additional snowfall in the blocked flow/upslope will be
highly terrain dependent with 6 to 10 inches western slopes...and 3
to 6 inches for the eastern Champlain Valley and northern Dacks.
Snowfall will taper off away from the blocked flow/upslope regions
to a dusting to couple inches at best.
Temps mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s Weds...with lows in the mid
teens to mid 20s on Weds night under modest low level cold air
advection and only in the upper teens to mid/upper 20s on
Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 241 PM EST Tuesday...Seems we`ll finally get a break in
active weather as the extended period looks relatively quiet
with only a couple minor features to deal with. To end the work
week we remain under cyclonic flow on Friday as low pressure
over the Canadian maritimes continues to exit northeast with
residual moisture in the low levels producing some scattered
light snow showers, especially across the higher terrain of
northern Vermont. High pressure then builds into the region for
Friday night and largely dominates the North Country`s weather
thereafter through the remainder of the forecast period except
for Sunday/Sunday night where weak shortwave energy and a
surface low passing to our north could produce some rain/snow
showers across northern areas, but overall impacts should be
negligible.
Temps through the period start relatively close to normal for
Friday/Friday night with highs ranging through the 20s and lows
in the single digits to teens, but thereafter a noticeable
warming trend is expected with highs each day in the 30s,
possibly 40s on Sunday, and lows mainly in the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00z Thursday...Overall looking at VFR conditions with a
gradual trend toward MVFR overnight with light snow moving
across the area. More active weather moves in between 12z and
00z with fairly widespread snow showers developing. While
conditions will generally be in the VFR and MVFR
categories...bursts of heavier snow will be possible with the
snow showers creating brief and localized IFR and LIFR
conditions...especially between 16z and 00z.
Outlook 00z Thursday through Saturday...
00z Thursday through 12Z Friday...Periods of light snow or snow
showers with IFR/MVFR conditions likely.
12Z Friday through 00Z Sunday...Mainly VFR as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST
Thursday for VTZ002-005-009-011-019.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST
Thursday for VTZ001-010-012.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday
for VTZ003-004-006>008-016>018.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST
Thursday for NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST
Thursday for NYZ028-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/MV
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Evenson/MV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
938 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore tonight. A low pressure system
will move through Wednesday followed by high pressure through
Friday night. Another storm system will affect the area
Saturday and Saturday night, then high pressure will prevail
through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Not much change was made from the early evening update. Suspect
temperatures are about to level out, if not rise slightly as
low-level jetting takes hold. Did end up lowering the low at
KCHS based on 15/02z observations, but the overall low
temperature forecast was maintained. Precip still looks to hold
off until after 12z. The latest RAP shows modest tornado and
wind parameters for Wednesday, but the degree of surface-based
instability is still unknown. Noted SigTor parameters of 2-3
with SHERB-S values >1 within a corridor of SBCAPE 400-700
J/kg. Wednesday certainly looks like it could be interesting and
the severe potential continues to be evaluated and refined.
A dry and relatively warm night is in store for Southeast South
Carolina and Southeast Georgia as low pressure moves out of the
lower Mississippi Valley and into the South Carolina Upstate.
Expect mostly clear skies to prevail this evening, characterized
by mainly thin cirrus, but thicker altoform and cirriform cloud
canopies will be on the increase from west-east after 3-5 am
Wednesday. There are signals that some patches of stratus could
develop south of I-16 just before daybreak, but confidence in
this scenario remains low. Do not anticipate a full decoupling
of the boundary layer with pre-frontal low-level jetting
progged to increase after midnight, so this should result in a
fairly warm night with lows only dropping into the mid 50s well
inland to the upper 50s elsewhere. These numbers could be a
little cold if some of higher resolution trends verify, so some
adjustments may be needed with the late evening forecast cycle.
A broken line of showers/tstms will likely be approaching the
western zones at 6 am, but no measurable rainfall is expected
before then. Have lowered pops slightly through 12z to reflect
this. However, rain chances will be on the increase after 8-9 am
Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday: The main issue for the short term period will be the
possibility of severe weather late morning into early afternoon
while a low pressure system and associated cold front push through
the Southeast. Models continue to suggest that a southern stream h5
shortwave will try to phase with a northern stream longwave trough,
weakening in the process, but also increasing in speed while
tracking over the Southeast. This feature will help push a sfc cold
front into the area from northwest to southeast by late morning,
providing sufficient forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity as
increasing levels of moisture and instability develop within the
warm sector of the passing low pressure system. However, there are a
few questions in regards to how unstable the atmosphere will be able
to achieve due to strong isentropic lift producing widespread cloud
cover over the area ahead of the approaching front. Latest guidance
suggests a high shear/low cape scenario with SBCAPE approaching 600-
800 J/kg, bulk shear around 60 kts and low-lvl helicity values
approaching 200-300 m^2/s^2.
Strong unidirectional wind fields and modest mid-lvl lapse rates
suggest the primary threat from stronger and/or severe thunderstorms
will be in the form of damaging straight-line winds and small hail.
However, there is a concern for isolated tornadoes over Southeast
Georgia where instability and shear parameters are greatest.
Regardless of the outcome to the severe weather potential, PWATs
near 1.5 inches suggest most areas will see a couple hours of
moderate to heavy rainfall as the low passes and the cold front
moves offshore. Overall high temps will approach the upper 60s north
to mid 70s south. These temps should support breezy conditions over
much of the area given mixing into strong wind fields aloft.
Thursday and Friday: A quiet period of weather is expected as dry
and cooler high pressure builds over the Southeast behind a
departing cold front. Thursday high temps will be noticeably cooler
despite mostly sunny skies. In general, temps should peak in the
lower 60s over most areas. Thursday night lows should range in the
mid/upper 30s over inland areas to lower 40s in Southeast Georgia.
High pressure will slowly modify through Friday with temps returning
in the mid/upper 60s Friday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A southern stream shortwave will move through Saturday, bringing
a chance for rain to the area. Otherwise, dry weather and above
normal temps anticipated.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR for most of the night. Low-end risk for stratus impacting
KSAV roughly 10-14z, but only a few guidance members are
suggesting this. Risk for MVFR and IFR conditions will increase
mid-late morning and persist through mid-afternoon as a line of
showers/tstms impacts the area ahead of a cold front. Greatest
convective coverage looks to occur over eastern South Carolina,
which impacts KCHS, while farther south at KSAV there are mixed
signals on how much convection will occur. Given this
uncertainty, will go ahead and show prevailing MVFR vsbys
roughly 16-21z at KCHS and low-end VFR at KSAV in showers. Will
also include a tempo group 17-19z for IFR vsbys in TSRA at KCHS
given convective trends noted in the higher resolution guidance.
TSRA will not be included at KSAV just yet.
There is a low risk for marginal low-level wind shear at both
terminals roughly 10-15z during the peaking of the low-level
jet, but current thinking is that there will be enough of a
surface response to keep winds below thresholds. This will need
to be watched.
Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no concerns with a greater
than 30% probability of occurrence.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: The gradient will begin to increase as a storm system
approaches from the west. South winds will veer to the southwest
and increase to around 15 kt by after midnight. Seas are
expected to build to the 2-4 foot range.
Wednesday through Saturday: A strong cold front will push through
the waters Wednesday, supporting solid Small Craft Advisory level
conditions for all waters late Wednesday morning with a tightening
pressure gradient ahead of the front and through Wednesday night
with cold air advection over waters behind the passing front. By
Thursday morning, quiet conditions will return and continue through
the upcoming weekend.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar remains out of service. Additional parts are on
emergency order. The radar will likely not be available for much
of Wednesday. Users should use adjacent WSR-88Ds for radar
information. These sites include KLTX, KCAE, KJGX, KVAX and
KJAX.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM EST Wednesday for
AMZ330.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM EST Wednesday for
AMZ350-352-354.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday
for AMZ374.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1033 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushing through in the morning will be accompanied
by snow showers and a few squalls. Northwest flow will then
bring lake effect and higher elevation snow accumuations into
Thursday. Thursday will be the coldest day this week, but then
the temperatures warm up significantly for the weekend and even
beyond.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Timing of arrival pretty good, but the passage of the front
overall looks to be just an hour or two faster than current
forecast. Will "hurry" it up accordingly.
Prev...
Lower clouds invading from the north. The cold front is around
Saginaw Bay at 00Z. The front will enter the far NW by 09Z, and
SHSN will result. The gustiness of the winds will be of concern,
but instability will likely be limited a little by the time of
day. However, there is some lightning over central lower MI
attm. So, there will probably be a few heavier squalls.
Accumulations will be minimal overnight, as the showers will be
moving quickly and moisture is minimal. The model data plays out
a scenario where the gusty front comes through and the squalls
will likely break up as they move down the Allegheny Front and
espedcially as they move into the Susq valley. Clouds across the
north and SW flow ahead of the front will make it tough for the
temps to drop to freezing before the front arrives in the NW.
This could make for icy roads as the snow may melt on the roads
and then freeze up.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The newest NAM and meso guidance both show a drastic reduction
in ersatz radar and model QPF over the southern tier for the
entire day Wed. Will just shade things a little toward a lower
POP there. This may also put the potency of any squalls in
question. Will hold onto the mentions of squalls for the time
being, and allow the future shift to analyze the latest meso
models for a more-clear shift toward or away from this thought.
The faster passage of the front will also likely increase the
winds a bit faster and perhaps in speed.
Prev...
Latest HRRR runs show a decrease in moisture, however the
strong 850 mb winds across the lake should provide enough
moisture to enhance the bands though the latest model runs have
weaker winds doe to a slackened gradient. However should still
need to monitor potential for snow squalls tomorrow morning.
Latest NAM Snow squall parameters following fropa shows decent
CAA but has weakened with the latest runs though lapse rates
remain fairly steep.
Model guidance shows triple point low development near the New
England Coast Wednesday afternoon/evening, with the new low
rapidly deepening as it tracks through the Gulf of Maine into
the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday. Northwest flow/cold air
advection on the backside of the storm will support long-
duration lake effect/upslope snow possible over the NW PA
snowbelt by through Thursday night. Have held off on any
headlines due to less moisture available to the system. So have
highlighted possible snow squalls in HWO and lake effect snow.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The first few days of the medium to long range period will
feature a fairly well-aligned NW flow with below normal daytime
temps (departures of minus 3-7F), and numerous snow showers and
areas of heavier LES across the NW mtns and Laurel Highlands.
Significant snow accum will likely occur over a fairly long
duration, and snow accums will probably not reach heavy snow
criteria of 6 in/12 hours. Thus, we decided against the issuance
a LES watch for Warren/Mckean counties at this point. However,
can easily see LES/Winter Weather Advisory criteria being met
during respective 12-hour periods within the 12Z Wed through
00Z Friday timeframe.
The deep, NE U.S. upper trough will lift off to the NE across
the Canadian Maritimes by the upcoming weekend, followed by
significant height rises via a full-latitude ridge (flattening
out as it moves from the upper midwest to the New England coast
by Sunday).
Afterward...GEFS and EC guidance still indicates above normal
1000-500 mb thickness and 850 mb temps with a distinct split
flow pattern across the central and eastern U.S. The passage of
a weak northern stream trough that will bring a few periods of
clouds and generally non-measurable sprinkles to the northern
and western mtns later Saturday into Sunday, will be followed
by yet another sharp ridge aloft and sprawling sfc high will
bring fair and unseasonably mild air right through early next
week, with little threat for measurable precip before the middle
of next week.
For Sat night through Tuesday night, overnight low temps (in
the 30s Central and NW PA...to near 40F at times in the SE) will
be consistently mild and near normal highs in the greater
Harrisburg area, and as much as 8-10 deg above what we see at 2
pm in mid February across the NW mtns and Laurel Highlands.
Daytime highs during this same period will vary from the upper
40s to near 50F across the NW mtns...to the mid and upper 50s in
the SE (a whopping 15-20F above normal highs).
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major changes made.
03Z TAFS sent.
Like the last 2 events, cold front and strong dynamics will
trigger bands of snow showers along and just behind the cold
front late tonight into Wednesday morning. Like Sunday night
and yesterday, the airmass is not that cold (about the same),
thus not looking at a large response from the Great Lakes.
Snow showers will likely linger into Thursday night, as winds
aloft remain northwest, and it will be rather cold aloft.
Temperatures will moderate by the end of the week into next
week, as high pressure moves off the east coast. VFR conditions
will return to the area by Friday. IFR conditions will be
possible with the snow showers, mainly at BFD and JST, prior
to Friday.
Outlook...
Thu...Sct shsn/VIS reductions possible BFD/JST.
Fri and Sat...No sig wx expected.
Sun...Mainly VFR conditions.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Ceru/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
941 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017
...Windy with Strong to Severe T`storms Possible on Wednesday...
.UPDATE...
The forecast area remains in the warm sector ahead of an approaching
cold front and sfc low. The low pressure system was located in LA
with trailing cold front southwest into the western Gulf of
Mexico. As the system translates eastward tonight...increasingly
moist southwest flow expected above the sfc with a period of low
clouds beginning later tonight and continue into early Wednesday
morning. A few showers near the outer coastal waters this evening
will continue to push eastward and out of the area...while there
is a slight chance for showers moving in late tonight over the
western zones as deep layer moisture moves into GA and the FL
panhandle. A few tweaks to the forecast tonight for the above
normal low temps which will range from mid 50s north zones to
upper 50s to lower 60s elsehwere. Have trimmed POPs a bit but
keeping a slight chance over the Suwannee Valley and portions of
SE GA after 06z tonight as some patches of rain may move out ahead
of the main prefrontal trough approaching. Any tstms are expected
to be on Wednesday as instability/forcing is too weak for the tonight
period.
For Wednesday...forecast still on track for windy conditions to
develop as ~1001 mb sfc low pressure moves through GA and SC and
trailing cold front pushes through allowing for a chance of
strong to severe storms. Localized wind damage and hail are the
primary threats with isolated brief tornadoes possible. Timing of
convective activity looks to be starting around 9 am to 11 am
over the western zones...with a broken line of showers and storms
possibly organizing around noon-1 pm from about the Brunswick GA
area to the FL big bend...then pushing through the rest of the
area through the aftn and offshore between 20z-00z. Some limiting
factors for more robust and widespread convection are rapid
drying aloft after 18z and too little directional shear above the
boundary layer.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR expected the next few hours with sct-bkn cumulus
around 5000-6000 ft near the east coast. Developing low clouds in
IFR range likely to start over the inland north/northeast FL
zones and move into GNV terminal first around midnight...though
this may be a bit too early. Low clouds may expand in coverage
and move to the rest of the terminals in the 08z-12z time frame
with some light VSBY restrictions as well...especially south of a
GNV- SGJ line. However...overall confidence in widespread low
cigs is somewhat lower than earlier today based on recent trends
of the HRRR guidance and it`s possible that if and when low cigs
develop they may be relatively short-lived.
Timing of showers/tstms for Wed placed in around the 15-20z time
frame for now as a prefrontal trough or individual shower/tstms
cells move through the region. Winds will mainly be southwest at
5-8 knots tonight...with only a marginal case for LLWS around the
06z-12z time frame. Southwest winds increase to 15-20G30kt by
14-15z Wed and then shift to mainly westerly after 21z.
&&
.MARINE...Winds are presently southerly near 10 kt but are
expected to shift to the southwest overnight and increase. Just
minor tweaks to the tonight forecast but SCEC for tonight and SCA
for Wed are on track.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 57 76 40 62 / 20 80 20 0
SSI 60 75 47 62 / 0 60 30 0
JAX 60 80 46 64 / 10 60 20 0
SGJ 61 79 48 65 / 10 60 20 0
GNV 60 77 46 66 / 10 60 10 0
OCF 60 78 48 67 / 0 60 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday
for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL
from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to
Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday
for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach
FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.
&&
$$
Shashy/Peterson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
349 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
.SHORT TERM...
The biggest concern through Thursday will occur over the next 12
hours or so as a frontal boundary associated with a weakening
upper level low moves through the forecast area this evening. A
band of convection associated with this frontal passage is
expected to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to the area through the evening hours. Later tonight, the boundary
should be east of the area, but cloud cover should linger through
the morning hours tomorrow as an upper level trough and secondary
frontal boundary slide through.
After reviewing the latest mesoscale model guidance and the 18z
special sounding, it looks like overall instability parameters
will be fairly limited and shear values should also remain on the
lower end of the scale. Given this, the threat for severe weather
has diminished over the northern half of the CWA. However, closer
to the Louisiana and Mississippi coast, slightly deeper moisture
and a bit more instability could still support a few strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms through the late evening hours. The
HRRR guidance indicates that a few discrete supercell
thunderstorms could impact areas along the immediate Louisiana
coast and further offshore this evening. Farther to the north, a
weaker more linear feature could bring more run of the mill type
thunderstorms to area along and north of the I-10 corridor. If
supercells do impact the immediate coastal areas of Louisiana, all
modes of severe weather will be possible including isolated
tornadoes, hail, and strong damaging wind gusts.
By tomorrow afternoon, strong deep layer ridging will firmly take
hold and expect to see clear skies in place by tomorrow evening.
These clear skies should linger through Thursday night as strong
subsidence dominates through the atmospheric column. Temperatures
will also cool as an airmass from the northern Plains descends
towards the Gulf Coast. Temperatures are expected to fall to
levels about 5 degrees cooler than average for mid-February
tomorrow, and then modify slightly back to more seasonal levels on
Thursday.
.LONG TERM...
Friday should be a day of transition as the deep layer ridge axis
shifts to the east, and another vigorous upper level trough ejects
out of the Southwest CONUS and into the Southern Plains. This
system will have a high degree of dynamic forcing associated with
it, but a lack of deep layer moisture and instability will result
in reduced chances of convection from late Friday through early
Saturday. As a result, the current forecast calls for only
moderate to locally heavy showers affecting the area. Rainfall
chances and amounts should be greatest closer to the coast where
overall moisture profiles are expected to be greatest. Onshore
flow in advance of the approaching low should allow temperatures
to climb into the upper 60s by Friday afternoon.
The fast moving negatively tilted trough axis will quickly pull
out of the region Saturday morning, and strong negative
vorticity advection and ridging will take hold by the afternoon
hours. Expect to see rapidly clearing skies and continued warmer
than normal temperatures as the system advects in a Pacific based
airmass. In fact, the forecast calls for highs to warm further
than on Friday due to the increased subsidence throughout the
column expected by Saturday afternoon. Highs should easily climb
into the middle 70s during the the afternoon. Temperatures will
also remain above average on Sunday as the ridge of high pressure
lingers over the area with highs climbing into the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Southerly flow in the low levels will also bring
increased low level moisture to the area resulting in somewhat
muggy conditions by Sunday afternoon.
Heading into Monday and Tuesday of next week, the medium range
guidance has come into much better agreement. Both the Euro and
GFS indicate that a cut off low will form over northern Mexico and
southern Texas Monday night and then slowly drift through the
norhwest and northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Increasing
positive vorticity advection and a highly difluent upper level
pattern in advance of this cut off low should support the
development of showers and thunderstorms from late Monday through
Tuesday. Have chance POP in place to reflect this risk.
Temperatures will remain well above normal in the 70s during the
day and the 50s at night.
&&
.AVIATION...
Much of the convection should be of the shower variety over land
areas with perhaps some TSRA in vicinity at KMSY and KHUM in the
next 2-4 hours. Otherwise a wind shift to westerly later this
evening with low pressure passage with IFR ceilings developing and
lingering through late Wed morning before improving to MVFR for the
afternoon. 24/RR
&&
.MARINE...
Squall line should sweep eastward through the coastal waters this
evening at about at 30 kt clip. This will onset breezy westerly
winds with the passage that maintains Small Craft Advisory
conditions overnight before settling down Wednesday afternoon.
Northerly flow continues through Thursday night before veering to
easterly and southeasterly through Sunday and continuing through
Tuesday. 24/RR
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...Monitoring convection in outlook area this evening.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 48 60 35 64 / 70 0 0 0
BTR 50 61 39 65 / 70 0 0 0
ASD 53 62 37 62 / 70 0 0 0
MSY 53 61 44 62 / 60 0 0 0
GPT 56 62 41 61 / 70 0 0 0
PQL 56 63 36 62 / 70 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Wednesday for GMZ532-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Wednesday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
959 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will approach the area from the Gulf
states and an approaching cold front will move in from the west
tonight. High pressure will build in behind the front Thursday
through Saturday. Low pressure will pass to the south Sunday.
High pressure will build in from the west Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 955 PM Tuesday, current remains on track. High cloudiness
continues to stream in from the west and increase as dewpoints
slowly continue to climb. Based on a very dry airmass below 700
mb in the 00Z MHX sounding, think chances of precip will hold
off until Wednesday morning. Most of the high-resolution model
guidance including the HRRR and RAP support this idea.
Temperatures will drop a couple of more degrees over the next 2
to 4 hours and then should level off or possibly rise as S/SW
winds increase later in the overnight hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 pm Tues...As the mid-upper level low deepens into
the Southeast region and the low pressure system (southern
stream sys) from the Gulf states tracks towards the Carolinas...
and finally gets absorbed into the mid-upper level trof.
Increasing rain chances across the area with the main bulk of
precip to occur mid-late morning through early afternoon.
Models continue to show precip will taper off from W to E after
21z. Highs to reach into the mid/upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...
A cold front will be to the east of the area by the start of the
long term period. Any lingering showers associated with the
front will be to our east by Wednesday night. A good pressure
gradient behind the front Thursday will keep winds brisk
through the day. Winds will be strongest near the coast and over
the far northeast, where the gradient is stronger.
High pressure builds through the gulf coast and off the east
coast of Florida later Thursday and Friday. The return flow
around the high Friday afternoon will boost temps well into the
50s inland. We will remain dry through Saturday with gradually
warming temps.
Our next shot at precipitation will come Saturday night into
Sunday as a low tracks over Florida and well off the coast by
Sunday. The Canadian is the farthest out to sea with this low,
but still brushes our coastal counties with light rain Saturday
night. The EURO and GFS are farther north with the coastal low,
but also show some light rain inland in association with an
upper level low moving out of the Tennessee Valley. For now a
blend of models looks good which gives us 20% chances for rain
inland, to 30-40% along the coast. An expansive ridge builds
into our area early next week. Look for dry weather and spring
like temps!
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through 00Z Thursday/...
As of 635 PM Tuesday, VFR conditions will prevail through the
overnight hours as high cloud bases gradually lower as deeper
moisture is slowly advecting into the region from the south and
southwest. Widespread sub-VFR conditions expected to develop
Wed morning, as rain overspreads the terminals late morning into
the afternoon. A period of IFR will be possible, but will keep
pred MVFR right now. Conditions will gradually improve from west
to east late afternoon/early evening as precip pushes off the
coast.
Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 245 PM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected to return Wed
night through Sat as high pressure builds in from the W thru Thu
night then slides offshore Fri into Sat. Mainly VFR Saturday
night and Sunday but brief MVFR conditions possible in showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /through Weds/...
As of 955 PM Tuesday, based on persistent sea/swell at Diamond
Buoy, did adjust the SCA for the central waters to start as of
03z. Otherwise, no changes to current advisories in effect.
Winds are currently S/SW 5-15 knots with some higher gusts
around Diamond buoy. SW winds will become gusty at 20-30 knots
overnight before becoming west then northwest by late day
Wednesday. Seas will build to 4-7 feet after midnight area-wide,
then will peak at 5-8 feet during the day on Wednesday.
Long Term /Wed night through Saturday/...
As of 245 PM Tue...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to
continue over the nearshore waters and sounds through late
Thursday night.
Gusty NW to WNW winds of 15 to 25 kts late Wed through Thu
night as front crosses and cold high pres builds in from the W.
Prefer the higher resolution models which depict frequent gusts
over 25 kts during the period. We may see a brief period of
Small Craft conditions on the Albemarle Sound early Thursday
morning based on our current forecast. The duration is too short
and our confidence is not high enough yet to include this sound
in the advisory.
Seas will peak at 6 to 8 feet outer waters Wed
night then drop below 6 feet by late Thu night. High pres will
crest over the region early Fri with NW winds less than 15 kts
becoming W and seas subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. WSW winds 10 to 15
kts and seas of 2 to 3 feet expected Sat with high pressure to
the SE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 10 PM EST Thursday
for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday
for AMZ156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday
for AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...RF/CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/EH/BM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
709 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
Currently, Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin lie between a
strong 1036 mb high over the northern Rockies and a deepening 995 mb
low south of Hudson Bay. This strong pressure gradient has led to a
gusty day with winds gusting out of the northwest at over 30 mph.
Yet another day where you can`t go high enough with temperatures,
with highs exceeding all guidance at reaching the low-mid 40s. The
Euro & HRRR continue to have the best handle on the warm daytime
temperatures so went with a blend of those for temperatures through
the evening.
The pressure gradient across the upper Midwest will decrease tonight
as the Hudson Bay low moves off to the east, leading to diminishing
winds after midnight. Some low-mid cloud cover is expected to
develop tonight as the upper-level vort max driving the
aforementioned low moves overhead. This cloud cover, mixing from
winds remaining 5-10 mph into the early morning and the continued
lack of snow on the ground should keep our lows from totally
cratering overnight. Raised low temperatures a few degrees from the
mid-teens north of I-94, to around 20 across southern MN and in the
Twin Cities metro. Upper-level ridging and high pressure begin to
dominate our weather Wednesday morning, leading to a pleasant but
"cool" day with highs in the low-30s across western WI to the low
40s across southwest MN.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
An unprecedented very mild temperature event will unfold by late in
the week as an anomalous upper ridge builds across the Upper
Midwest. Temperatures across western Canada, east of the Rockies
have risen into the 30s/40s this afternoon which is near record or
above record territory. As of 2 pm, Cold Lake, which is in northern
Alberta, was setting a record high of 48 degrees. These type of
temperatures are forecast to move southeast across the Northern
Plains, and Upper Midwest by Friday.
Standard anomalies of 25H/50H and 85T are much higher across Canada,
vs the Upper Midwest from today through the Saturday, but still
considered near record territory for our region. This will translate
into highs in the 50s, and 60s across southern Minnesota, with 40s
in western Wisconsin, and where snow cover still exists across
central Minnesota on Friday. Another reason there is higher
confidence in the high temperatures is that a similar pattern was
noted the same week back in 1981. The Minneapolis/St. Paul Airport,
St. Cloud and Eau Claire, Wisconsin had a string of record high
temperatures during this time period (1981) which lasted for several
days. The analog run based on the Upper Midwest, centered on the
17th of February, 1981, had highs in southern Minnesota in the low
60s, with 50s as far north as Duluth. Later forecast can redefine
highs for this period, but expect the above normal temperatures to
continue through early next week.
A weak front will move across the Upper Midwest late Friday, but the
air mass behind this front is still relatively mild for the middle
of February. Therefore, it will remain mild for both
Saturday/Sunday.
Next week remains on track for the continuation of a very mild
period, especially Monday where models forecast a storm system
moving northward across the Northern Plains. The Upper Midwest will
be on the warm side of this storm, so deep moisture, accompanied by
very mild temperatures will surge northward. Dew points Monday
afternoon could rise into the 50s which is again, very anomalous for
February. There is even a chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon
as instability parameters increase. Although there is some
differences in the placement of the storm system next week,
confidence remains high enough to warrant likely pops.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
VFR expected tonight and tomorrow, but high clouds will be on the
increase - winds will continue to decrease.
KMSP...
VFR expected with little in the way of aviation weather concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE at 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S at 5 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind W at 5 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ETA
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
700 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2017
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated an amplified pattern with a
mid/upper level ridge from the western CONUS into
Alberta/Saskatchewan and a trough from Hudson bay into the northern
Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extended across central
Upper Michigan from low pressure northeast of Lake Superior. A
shortwave moving into wrn Upper Michigan combined with daytime
heating supported an increase in snow showers across the area.
However, with 850 mb temps only to around -11C and Spring-like
warming over the land, the snow showers were more cellular and
disorganized resulting in little or no accumulation.
Tonight, expect that the snow showers will increase in intensity and
coverage this evening as the disruption from daytime heating
diminishes and low level conv increases across most areas of nrn
Upper Michigan favored by strong nnw flow. The LES will continue
overnight but should diminish over the west where subsidence and
850-700 mb drying is strongest behind the shrtwv. Although the
snow is later to develop than expected, 1 to 3 inch amounts are
still possible. Locations east of Marquette should still see
additional acumulations in the 2 to 4 inch range. The strongest
isallobaric component and gustiest winds are expected this evening
with some gusts to around 40 mph. The stronger winds overnight
are expected to shift into the ern cwa.
Wednesday, nnw winds will continue with 850 mb temps remaining
around -14C. This should be enough to keep light to moderate LES
going over mainly the east, downstream from the longer fetch.
Otherwise, inversion heights dropping to around 3k ft will result in
only light LES over the west.
Even with little snow this afternoon, the winter weather advisories
were retained as conditions are expected to deteriorate this
evening, especially in locations exposed to the stronger winds.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2017
Generally the extended is looking quiet with well advertised warming
trend still on track starting on Fri. Should be warm enough for just
rain early next week as stronger storm system crosses Great Lakes.
Upper trough and cold enough air with h85 temps down to -17c keep
lake effect snow going Wed night for areas favored by NNW-N winds
near Lk Superior. Forecast soundings at P53 (Munising) and Grand
Marais show inversions to 4kft with most of of lake effect layer in
the dgz. Low-level flow slightly cyclonic as core of cold air works
just north of Lk Superior. Intensity will be light so nothing more
than 1-2 inches with light winds limiting impact. As high pressure
ridge moves in on Thu, inversions lower blo 3kft but sfc winds
veering more NE will still keep plenty of clouds overhead and may
keep light lake effect snow showers or flurries going ncntrl cwa.
Will stay on cooler side with max temps low 20s east cwa to near 30
over west cwa.
Upper trough heads east Thu into Fri helping to spin up stronger
storm across far eastern Canada vcnty of New Brunswick/Newfoundland
to Nova Scotia. Meanwhile upper heights will be sharply on the
rise from central Plains across Great Lakes and and as far north
as Baffin Island in northern Nunavut to the north of Hudson Bay.
No doubt will be a low level inversion in place as very warm air
spreads across Great Lakes for the weekend as temps at h85/4-5kft
rise up over +10c. Even so, forecast soundings look too moist in
lowest 1kft Fri through Sun so mixing is likely too limited.
Based on what occurred on ydy/Mon when it mixed to 875mb and
850mb with h85 temps of -2c, think even with increasing warm air
aloft we could mix to H9 and that is probably low since mostly
sunny skies are expected under the building ridge. Used 900mb
temps to gage how high max temps could be. Expect at least low 50s
for some areas Sat and Sun and, if there is full sunshine, would
not be shocked to see readings reach upper 50s to near 60F in some
areas of western Upper Michigan. Dwpnts could rise slightly above
freezing but should for most part stay blo 32F for the weekend.
Thus not expecting a lot of fog even with the very warm daytime
temps as min temps should drop just below freezing Fri night and
Sat night.
GFS, ECMWF and GEM are in really good agreement in showing
stronger shortwave trough breaking through the ridge Mon into Tue
of next week. Deepening sfc low pressure will move from the
central Plains across the upper Great Lakes. Surge of deep
moisture with sfc dwpnts pushing 40+ should bring area of showers
across Upper Michigan Mon night into Tue. With h85 dwpnts nearing
+10c and sharp theta-e ridge/strong h85-h7 moisture advection
nearby would not be out of question for some thunder Mon night.
Deep sfc low could result in windy conditions both ahead of and
behind the low and given such high sfc dwpnts advecting over snow
cover, probably will be fog too. Widespread showers likely
diminish to rain and snow showers later Tue into Tue night as
cooler air returns to the upper Great Lakes region. But, with
overall west to east upper level flow persisting beyond next Tue,
the colder air for mid to late next week does not look too
drastic.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2017
Increasingly colder air moving into the Upper Great Lakes will
lead to lake effect snow showers across the area tonight under nw
to nnw winds. At KIWD, prevailing MVFR conditions should set in
this evening as some increase in coverage of -shsn occurs. At
KCMX, expect prevailing IFR conditions this evening with BLSN
adding some restriction to vis. However, as is typical for lake
effect, conditions will be quite variable with MVFR and brief LIFR
at times. As somewhat drier air arrives overnight, expect
prevailing MVFR conditions at KCMX. At KSAW, MVFR conditions
should be the rule tonight, though some periods of IFR are likely
this evening. Under an influx of drier air, -shsn will diminish
for Wed. MVFR conditions should prevail at all terminals, but KIWD
should break out to VFR in the aftn.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 418 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2017
Winds will increase to gale force late this afternoon over most of
Lake Superior as a strong upper disturbance slides into the Upper
Great Lakes and tightens the pressure gradient through tonight.
Since colder air will be arriving at the same time, heavy freezing
spray warnings were hoisted for tonight and Wednesday for most of
Lake Superior. Winds will gradually diminish from Wednesdy afternoon
into Wed evening.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ001>004-
084.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ006-007-
085.
Lake Superior...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST Wednesday for
LSZ264>267.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ266-267.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ264-265.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PST Tue Feb 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A wet and mild storm system will bring a threat for freezing rain
in Central Washington and rain in Idaho and Eastern Washington.
The warmer and wetter weather pattern will bring a potential for
flooding in portions of North Idaho and Northeast Washington
through Friday. A showery and unsettled weather pattern is
expected for the second half of the week into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: High pressure currently delivering dry and mostly sunny
weather will begin to shift east tonight and a rich plume of
atmospheric moisture will begin streaming toward Central WA. Dry
weather will persist through the evening but clouds will be
thickening across much of Central WA with precipitation expected
after midnight. Timing has increased a few hours which will bring
the potential for a few more hours of a light wintry mix to folks
in Central WA prior to the Wednesday morning commute. Satellite
derived PWATS off the WA Coast are quite impressive with values
near 1.5". As this plume surges inland overnight, precipitation is
expected to fall as a mix of freezing rain and sleet with some
high mountain snow possible in the North Cascades. As of
1PM...temperatures on many SNOTELS south of Lake Chelan were in
the upper 30s to mid 40s likely capturing the remnants of our
subsidence inversion...however as this layer begins to moisten and
wetbulb overnight...cooling will be minimal as 40-50kts of
southwest winds kick up within the 800-700mb layer drawing in
warmer Pacific air. Consequently, precipitation should be in the
form of rain and sleet vs snow. A look at the 1PM observations
indicates wetbulb temperatures at the surface will remain below
freezing increasing the risk for freezing rain with this event.
Further east, we are seeing mountain temperatures currently in the
40s and 50s and valleys ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Expect the mountains to cool very little but strong inversions to
once again setup in the valleys under clear skies (at least
through midnight) and potential for areas of freezing fog in the
NE valleys. /sb
Wednesday through Thursday night: The Inland NW transitions to
a more active pattern with opportunities for moderate rain, some
snow and some freezing rain and some sleet. The risk for the
winter mix has been highest toward the Cascades and lee-side
zones. However models are little quicker to expand precipitation
northeast Wednesday morning, which may bring some freezing rain to
northeast WA and north ID. In the big picture a long-wave trough
moves toward the coast and an occluding frontal wave draws that
trough inland Thursday. Through Thursday morning the region
remains in the warm sector of the system as the jet rounds its
east side. That jet taps the next atmospheric river, with PWATs
around 0.7-0.95 inches (200-300% of normal), to bring the
likelihood of precipitation until things gradually decrease from
the west Thursday into Thursday night behind the cold front.
Through Wednesday the best threat of more moderate precipitation
will be toward the western Columbia Basin and Cascades. Further
east the precipitation will be more periodic/less persistent. Then
Wednesday night into early Thursday the heavier/steadier
precipitation threat expands throughout the region. Some areas may
see between 0.40 to 0.80 inches of rain, with local amounts near
an inch or so. As such flood watches were hoisted for northeastern
WA and north ID for Wednesday night through Friday morning.
Snow levels/precipitation-type: ahead of the cold front the
challenge will be how strong the warm tongue is aloft and what
surface temperatures do. A warm tongue rides in aloft, centered
around 800mbs, but there are disagreements its strength. The
forecast leans away from the warmer NAM, but the warm layer is
plenty warm over much of the region to support a mixed
precipitation threat for some areas.
Wednesday starts out with surface temperatures near or below
freezing across much of the region. Snow levels average between
3-7kft from north to south, save for around the Methow Valley
where snow levels were placed around 2-3kft. The best threat of
freezing rain will be across the Cascades, Wenatchee Area,
Waterville Plateau, Okanogan and portions of the Moses Lake and
north and western Upper Columbia Basin zone. Freezing rain
advisories remain in place for these areas. The Cascades/Wenatchee
Area will have to be monitored should the freezing rain be
heavier/more persistent, which may require an upgrade to an ice
storm warning. However the potential for snow and sleet will also
be mixed in toward the Methow Valley where the colder air may be a
bit deeper or the warm tongue may be a little weaker. A modest
threat of freezing rain will also expand toward the NE WA Mountain
zone early Wednesday. So the freezing rain advisory was expanded
to include that zone. A threat of freezing rain will also spread
into the Spokane/C`dA area Wednesday morning, primarily over the
north and western regions. Confidence in that region will see
appreciable icing is low, so this region was left out of the
freezing rain advisory for now. This too will be monitored.
Late Wednesday morning to afternoon the main freezing rain threat
will retreat toward the Cascades, Wenatchee Area, and far western
Columbia Basin. The snow threat will retreat to the higher
mountains and rest of the region will mainly see rain. Between
Wednesday night and Thursday night the warm tongue starts to shift
southeast and the atmosphere starts to cool from the top down.
This will allow for some potential mixture of snow/sleet/freezing
rain around the Cascades/Okanogan Valley through Thursday morning.
Then by the afternoon mainly mountain snow and valley rain is
possible. Finally by Thursday night, especially overnight, there
could be a mix of rain/snow down to the valley floors but by then
the best overall risk of precipitation will have retreated to the
mountain zones and southeast. /J. Cote`
Friday through Tuesday...An active and unsettled late winter
weather regime will dominate the region through the extended
forecast period. Models are in overall agreement in maintaining a
mean upper level trough offshore through the extended period
maintaining a moist southwesterly flow into the region...although
it does not appear any unusually deep atmospheric rivers will
directly hose into the region. Periodic weak to moderate strength
waves and disturbances will eject through the region...so many
actually that no period in the extended forecast can be
confidently forecast as dry although there is enough agreement to
suggest that Saturday will bring the best chance of widespread
precipitation...certainly at least moderate mountain snow and
probably light accumulating snow in the valleys and northern
basin Saturday and Saturday night. Further disturbances of note
appear to impact mostly the mountains north and east of the basin
Monday and again on Tuesday...but a chance of daytime rain or
non-accumulating snow showers and overnight light snow
accumulating showers will be possible just about anywhere.
High and low temperatures through this period will remain close
to normal...maybe a bit less than normal in the Cascades lee
areas...but there will be no significant air mass exchanges to
bring unusually cold or mild temperatures in this progressive
pattern. /Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
...FREEZING RAIN TO IMPACT WENATCHEE AND MOSES LAKE WEDNESDAY...
00z TAFS: Areas of fog remain in the lower Columbia
Basin and look to persist between Ritzville and Moses Lake through
midnight. Cigs did lift at Moses Lake but confidence is now low
that they will clear and in conjunction with HRRR guidance, could
lower again after sunset. Next aviation threat comes with freezing
rain Wed morning...possibly continuing arnd KEAT throughout the
day. Moisture comes in two waves. The first wave to bring light
amts of -ra/-fzra to the TAF sites aft 09z. Confidence highest for
-fzra arnd Wenatchee and Moses Lake. Spokane carries lower
confidence and thinking any -fzra will be short-lived with a
quicker switch to -RA but overnight lows will make or break any
chance for -fzra for NE WA. The break in pcpn will be indicated by
periods of drizzle, possibly falling as -fzdz in Central WA. Cigs
will also be lowering throughout the day as warmer air and rain
fall over the resident snowpack. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 25 41 36 45 30 41 / 10 70 100 80 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 26 41 36 45 31 42 / 0 50 100 90 40 30
Pullman 35 46 37 46 34 44 / 0 40 90 80 50 10
Lewiston 34 48 40 51 35 48 / 0 20 70 60 60 10
Colville 24 37 36 44 32 41 / 10 70 100 80 30 30
Sandpoint 19 38 36 43 32 40 / 0 40 100 100 50 50
Kellogg 25 41 36 44 33 40 / 0 30 90 100 60 50
Moses Lake 25 34 33 42 27 42 / 30 70 100 30 10 10
Wenatchee 26 32 30 39 29 38 / 60 90 100 40 20 10
Omak 21 34 33 42 29 38 / 40 80 100 60 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for
Northern Panhandle.
WA...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for
Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area.
Freezing Rain Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
Wednesday for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-
Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
Freezing Rain Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM PST Wednesday for
Northeast Mountains.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
921 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
Current gridded short term forecast for the remainder of the first
period (tonight) still appears on track with both the high
resolution/CAM guidance and even the more larger 12-20km
resolution numerical model guidance. No measurable changes needed
to current forecast in force.
Between 03z-05z (9 pm-11 pm tonight) there may be an increase in
precipitation efficiency from a Poplar Bluff to Sikeston MO line
as the deformation zone along and northeast of the closed low in
Arkansas is maximized. However, the closed low is forecast to
weaken/fill/reform further to the south between 07z-09z (1 am-3am
CST) in Northeast AR/Western TN, intercepting the moisture flux
from the Gulf of Mexico, starving Southeast Missouri and southern
sections of West Kentucky from meaningful lift/moisture advection
for significant precipitation. There should be a rapid reduction
in precipitation across the WFO PAH CWA through 5 am CST Wednesday
morning.
UPDATE Issued at 533 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
Well, it appears that the northern edge of this afternoon and
evenings east-to-west oriented rain band will be at least a county
north into our area. The latest HRRR guidance supports the 12Z GFS
and the latest radar trends, and was followed fairly closely
through tonight. Looks like any measurable rainfall will fall to
the south of a Cape Girardeau Missouri to Greenville Kentucky
line. The KY/TN border areas will remain wet through the evening,
and then the rains will dissipate quickly after midnight. There
is no concern for wintry precipitation at this time.
A cold front will move through the area late this evening and
overnight. This will lead to some gusts up to 20kts and much
cooler air throughout the area for Wednesday. Highs will be just a
bit below normal, but if low clouds are a bit thicker than
currently forecast, the forecast may be on the optimistic side.
The surface ridge will quickly settle over the region Wednesday
evening, and winds will be back out of the southwest by 12Z
Thursday. Rising heights and strengthening southwesterly low-level
flow will lead to a nice warm up for Thursday. Most locations
should reach well into the 50s. This forecast is likely on the
cool side for highs Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
High pressure centered to our southeast will keep us dry with
southwest flow on Friday. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees
above seasonal normals Friday and Friday night, with highs in the
60s and lows in the 40 to 45 degree range. On Saturday, models are
now a little more organized showing some showers possible with an
upper level low moving across the region. Precipitation amounts
remain light but are more widespread than yesterday`s model runs, so
went with slight to low chances for showers Saturday into Saturday
evening, with the slightly better chances across west Kentucky. More
cloud cover on Saturday will drop temperatures back just a few
degrees.
Continued south to southwest flow will lead to warming temperatures
Saturday night into Monday. Models are trending slower with an
approaching cold front for the early part of the work week. ECMWF
and Canadian hold off any precipitation making it into our far west
until Monday afternoon, while the GFS now holds off for at least
another 24 to 36 hours. Went just a little slower than the latest
ECMWF/Canadian solutions, and included some slight chances for
showers in the Ozark foothills Monday evening, with chances slowly
increasing and spreading east Monday night into Tuesday. Prefer to
keep possibility in the chance category and below due to low
confidence in timing.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 533 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017
VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the period. The
only exception may be at KPAH from 12-16Z where there may be MVFR
cigs. -RA possible at KCGI/KPAH for the first few hours as a
weather system slides by to the south of the area. Variable winds
AOB 5 knots early will gradually swing around to the north in the
08-10Z time frame, then become gusty after 15Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
842 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east along the Gulf Coast states tonight into
Wednesday, all while a cold front enters and then moves across our
region. High pressure will gradually build into the area Thursday
into the start of the holiday weekend. Weak low pressure will bring
the next chance of precipitation to the area on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 842 PM EST Tuesday...
Some sleet is mixing in with the light rain in portions of
Northwest North Carolina tonight. Posted a quick SPS to
highlight the light wintry mixture of rain,snow and sleet
tonight. Modified temperatures tonight with latest surface obs
and shaped towards GLAMP. Adjusted POPs and weather for this
evening into tonight. Nudge pops up across the north to match up
better with the latest HRRR and HiRESW-arw-east. The Best Window
of precipitation looks to be 06z-15z. More adjustments later
tonight.
As of 545 PM EST Tuesday...
Made some minor adjustments to temperatures utilizing latest
surface obs and trends. Also modified pops and weather with WSR-
88d images and trends. Shaped this evening into tonight towards
the HRRR. More adjustments later this evening.
As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...
Tonight, low pressure will track eastward along a warm front
that is positioned across the Gulf Coast states. Precipitation
on the northern extent of this feature is expected to move
eastward through at least the southern half of our region
starting this evening. By midnight, the activity is expected to
be east to Danville, VA, and north as far as roughly route 460
in WV and VA. This activity will occur about twelve hours in
advance of a cold front that will sweep through the region
during the day Wednesday. As winds back in advance of the cold
front, look for a small jog north of the main precipitation
shield to encompass territory north of route 460, especially in
areas east of Roanoke, VA.
Low level temperature profiles support primarily a rain versus snow
forecast tonight, with the snow confined to primarily the mountains,
with measurable snow in the one to two inch range at elevations at
or above roughly 4000 ft MSL. Coating level amounts are expected at
elevations down to approximately 3000 ft MSL. Portions of the
Northern Mountains of North Carolina may see a layer of melting and
refreezing yielding some pockets of sleet as well.
The cold front is expected to sweep through the region late tonight
through the morning hours on Wednesday. This feature will shunt the
moisture associated with the southern stream system out of the area.
In its wake, increasing northwest flow will yield upslope rain/snow
showers across portions of southeast West Virginia, south into the
Northern Mountains of North Carolina Wednesday morning, with
decreasing coverage Wednesday afternoon. The prevailing northwest
winds will also help to erode cloud cover Wednesday across the
Piedmont by noon, with most of the mountains seeing more sun than
clouds by the mid-afternoon.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s
across the mountains with upper 30s to around 40 across the
Piedmont. Highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 30s to lower
40s across the mountains with mid to upper 40s across the Piedmont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM EST Tuesday...
Pronounced mid-level low to our north and east induces another
(brief) shot of colder temperatures for Wednesday night and
Thursday; however, we start to moderate on Friday as mid-level
heights begin to rise.
For Wednesday Night: As frontal zone pushes south and eastward,
surface ridge builds in and with focus for PoPs restricted to the
upslope areas in western Greenbrier and northern Summers counties.
This is all snow for these upslope areas, as 850 mb temperatures
crash to values -8 to -12C thru 12z Thursday under rather strong
cold thermal advection across the entire forecast area. Focused
highest PoPs (Likely) along the western portions of Greenbrier
County, generally lowering to Chance by early morning. This
coincides with partially saturated -12 to -18C dendritic snow growth
region, but limited QPF to around a few hundreths in western
Greenbrier. However, the better moisture is confined further
northeastward. This leads to accumulations from a coating to 1" in
eastern Greenbrier and northern Summers Counties to 1-2" western
Greenbrier. Northwesterly winds will increase as well overnight in
the cold advection; however, based on current indications and per
local post-frontal cold-season wind guidance research, it appears
that wind gusts may be largely sub-Advisory except possibly in the
NC mountains and perhaps into Carroll and Grayson Counties in VA
along the Blue Ridge. Will continue mention in HWO for now, but
outside of these areas wind gusts of 25-35 mph appear most likely.
Factoring in teens to low 20s temps in with breezy to gusty
northwest winds along/west of the Ridge, wind chills look to fall
through the teens into the single digits overnight hrs. From the
Roanoke Valley into the foothills and Piedmont, conditions should be
marginally warmer with lows in the mid/upper 20s.
For Thursday: Deep 500-mb cyclonic gyre and associated 1000-500 mb
thermal trough establishes itself across the northern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. Cold advection aloft generally
weakens as we advance into the afternoon hours, but that will still
render warming temps due to sunshine ineffective to some extent.
Temperatures will certainly climb but I`ve opted for a very slow
rise in areas along/west of the Blue Ridge to highs in the lower to
mid 30s; in the foothills, temperatures look to warm into the
40s before falling.
For Thursday Night: 500-mb low and associated cyclonic flow over our
area begins to ever so slowly propagate northeastward. An 850-mb
baroclinic zone then sets up across far western parts of the
forecast area and into the eastern Tennessee Valley, separating
much colder air to the northeast with the building anomalous
warmth southwest of it. Today`s 12z NAM and GFS have shown a
weak, narrow ribbon of vort energy that ripples along the
baroclinic zone, on the southwestern periphery of the 500 mb low
Thursday night; this may trigger a redevelopment of snow
showers in southeast West Virginia. Shown slight to low Chance-
level PoPs for snow showers Thursday night in these areas;
however, I`ve also extended isolated flurries downstream into
the Alleghany Highlands and into the southern Shenandoah Valley.
Best chance of any limited accumulation would however be in
southeast West Virginia aided by an upslope component. Lows in
the 20s to near freezing across the area.
For Friday and Friday Night: Moderation out of the cooler
temperatures begins in earnest on Friday continuing into Friday
night. 500 mb low loses its influence, with mid-level height rises
replacing it leading to mostly sunny skies and a clear evening. By
Friday evening, our 850 mb temperatures return to positive levels
(+2 to +5C). Looking at upper 40s to near 60 for highs and lows in
the mid/upper 30s to near 40 along ridgetops governed by radiational
cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 PM EST Tuesday...
Global models and their ensemble means remain in good agreement that
the background mid-level height pattern will feature height rises in
the mean throughout much of the period. Aside from a southern-stream
deamplifying mid-level low Saturday night, precipitation chances
through the rest of the period are nil. It would appear that the
next significant chance of precipitation after Saturday night is not
until Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Anomalously warm temperatures are expected through the forecast
period. 850 mb temperatures "cool" to +4 to +6 on Sunday, but are
then around +8 to near +10C into midweek. Though lows will trend
above normal as well, highs are well above normal. The anomalous
warmth is reflected nicely as high probabilities for above normal
temperatures in CPC`s 6-10 day temperature probabilistic outlooks.
In addition, MEX MOS guidance are some 10 to 15 degrees above normal
on both the highs and the lows after Sunday. Just another
illustration of how anomalously mild the period projects to be, as
MEX MOS guidance typically trends toward climo in the latter time
ranges. Used SuperBlend as a starting point, but modified these
somewhat using MOSGuide and bias-corrected highs/lows to better show
the diurnal range. Bias-corrected temperatures are sure to do quite
well in the latter ranges of the period. Monday looks to be the
warmest day of the stretch as forecast highs are in the 60s to low
70s.
Given the generally dry forecast period, the anomalously warm
temperatures and the likelihood that sunshine will steepen low-
level lapse rates and lower afternoon dewpoints, I suspect that fire
weather would be a focus particularly after Saturday night, at least
in a general sense. Fuels should dry out, even though winds are very
light. Something to keep mind of and will be better refined as we
continue into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 652 PM EST Tuesday...
VFR conditions will prevail this evening into tonight. Ceilings
will gradually lower to MVFR in the west late tonight into
Wednesday morning and low end VFR in the east thanks to
increasing moisture in the low levels, and the onset of light
precipitation. The precipitation will fall as a mix of mainly
light rain and light snow, temperature and elevation dependent.
A few locations near the Northern Mountains of North Carolina
may also experience some light sleet.
A cold front will cross the area late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Look for winds to become gusty from the northwest, and
the bulk of the precipitation to exit the area to the east.
Lingering upslope rain and snow showers will be possible across
the preferred regions of southeast West Virginia, south into
the Northern Mountains of North Carolina. By Wednesday afternoon,
gusts across the mountains will be in the 20 to 25 kt range.
Clouds in the east will clear early. Pockets of MVFR ceilings
will continue where rain/snow showers are more probable.
Low to medium confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds
during the taf period.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Gusty northwest winds will continue across the area into
Thursday or Thursday night. Patchy MVFR cigs possible between
KBLF-KLWB.
Upper level shortwave ridge moves over the area Friday into
Saturday. Look for light winds and VFR conditions all locations.
Weak low pressure moves through the region Saturday night into
Sunday. Pockets of sub-VFR conditions return along with light
precipitation. Drier weather is expected Sunday night into
Monday night.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...DS/KK