Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/10/17

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
810 PM MST Thu Feb 9 2017 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sat... The general threat of wintry mix is gone from northeast Montana aside from a few fleeting hit and miss periods tonight based on the latest high resolution models. Some of this expected precipitation may not even reach the ground. Left mention of it in the grids, but felt it was best to go ahead and cancel the winter weather advisory as expected this evening. NAM and HRRR are the only models showing anything left over and they tend to err on the side of caution with virga more likely. BMickelson Previous short term discussion: A warm front continues to push across northeast Montana this afternoon with areas of freezing rain continuing in the northeast zones. Further west where precipitation is ending, the winter weather advisory was canceled. Temperatures are rising above freezing and will continue to do so further east this evening. Travelers should keep in mind that ground temperatures will remain cold even with rising air temperatures long after precipitation comes to an end. As a result do expect difficult travel in some places to continue for the next several hours. Expect clearing skies on Friday and warmer high temperatures for most places thanks to efficient boundary layer mixing. However the trade off will be an increase in wind speeds across the area. It is reasonable to expect west winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. Normally windy locations like the Malta South DOT site, South Sawmill, and some of the Big Sheep Mountains may see occasional gusts in excess of 40 mph. A new shortwave trough will push across Montana from the west on Saturday bringing with it increasing clouds and eventually a chance for a rain/snow mix due to mild thermal profiles. Look again for windy conditions behind this system in the afternoon and evening hours with higher momentum air mixing to low levels as that wave pushes through. Maliawco .LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu... Very little changes were made and the period seems fairly benign of any impactful conditions. TFJ Previous Discussion... Warm and dry weather will dominate the extended period. There will be NW flow aloft Sunday and Monday. A shortwave trough within the NW flow aloft will bring a dry cold front through the area Sunday Night. Upper Ridge builds into Montana Monday Night and Tuesday from the west with dry weather continuing. A dry shortwave trough will flatten the ridge somewhat either Tuesday Night or Wednesday and then the ridge rebounds on Thursday. Although temperatures will be very warm aloft between Tuesday and Thursday with +8 to +10C at 850 mb based on the ECMWF forecast (GFS is not as warm). Lingering snow cover and low level inversions will likely limit warming at the surface. Forrester && .AVIATION... A warm front has brought very warm air into Northeast Montana causing ice to melt, possibly making slick surfaces. KGGW upper air sounding at 00Z had 860mb temperatures at 56F degrees. With the wind in place, some of this warmer air may mix to the surface. Expect west winds at the surface and aloft tonight and Friday. Surface winds west to 20 kts are expected Friday. LLWS: Strong west winds 1 to 2K ft AGL with speeds to 50 kts will cause LLWS into Friday. Otherwise, ceilings will gradually rise tonight with clearing Friday. TFJ/SCT && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
541 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Temperatures will be the main forecast concern in this period, with some chances for precipitation, mainly Saturday night. Water vapor imagery, in combination with the latest RUC model initialization, showed a ridge building east across the Rockies. Considerable mid and high level moisture continued to stream into the western CONUS. Fairly thick mid level cloudiness that was over the area this morning had shifted east by early afternoon. Cirrus clouds were increasing though to our west and northwest. At the surface, high pressure had shifted off to the southeast and we should see southerly flow overnight. That will bring in warmer low level air, with 850 mb temperatures in the teens Celsius by sunrise Friday. Lows should mostly be during the evening, with steady or rising temperatures overnight. Highs Friday will be tricky for several reasons, which include the following. There will be lingering snowcover, especially across the northern half to two thirds of the forecast area. Winds will not be overly strong, so the amount of mixing is in question. A front drops down from the north, bringing in some cooler air during the afternoon. Will stay conservative for highs Friday where more than a couple inches of snow are still on the ground today, but go near MOS guidance for highs in the snow free areas of southeast Nebraska. Deep layer moisture will increase from the Nebraska panhandle to southeast South Dakota and the northern parts of northeast Nebraska by Saturday morning, so some light precipitation is possible. Chances look a little better for Saturday afternoon, as the moisture and forcing shift southward. As noted yesterday, there will also be some lower level moisture trying to push into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa from the south on Saturday. Will hold off on any mention of drizzle, but that may need to be added with later forecasts. Colder air pushes south Saturday night and we also see mid level frontogenesis moving down through the area. Will mention some chance of mainly light rain, but a bit of snow and or sleet also seems possible. Sunday looks dry and cooler with highs in the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 Trough axis should have pushed well off to the east by late Sunday, and the closed low to our southwest should have moved into southern Arizona. That is expected to move eastward through the mid part of next week, and not have any impact for our area. At the same time, a ridge will amplify from California up into western Canada. Initially fairly mild west/northwest flow should turn more to the north/northwest. Fortunately it appears that the bulk of the cold air that will be pulled down should end up more to our east. We expect highs Tuesday through Thursday to be mostly in the 40s, and any precipitation chances look to be 10 percent or less in that period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 VFR conditions are forecast through Friday afternoon with only scattered to broken high clouds expected. However low level wind shear will be a concern as south then west winds at FL020 kick up to 45kt at all sites overnight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...Dergan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
939 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 .UPDATE... Updated hourly temperature/dewpoint forecast through 13Z to fit current observation trends. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... A increasing surface pressure gradient and strengthening low- level jet are expected to increase southerly winds and associated gusts through the overnight hours. Both the NAM12 and HRRR suggest the gustiest winds will be along a northwest to southeast line from KGAG/KWWR to KOKC/KOUN. Therefore, expect limited cooling across northwest/central Oklahoma during the overnight hours as the boundary layer is not expected to decouple and establish a defined nocturnal inversion. Elsewhere, a little more cooling is expected as winds are forecast to be lighter. This may include areas such north central Oklahoma, southwest Oklahoma, and parts of north Texas. Mahale && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017/ DISCUSSION... Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below. AVIATION... Winds will remain elevated tonight around 10 to 15 kt. Skies will generally remain clear with a few passing high clouds expected. Wind speeds will increase late tomorrow morning through early tomorrow afternoon. VFR will apply. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 43 74 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 42 78 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 42 79 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 43 81 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 39 72 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 41 70 57 82 / 0 0 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for OKZ008-013-019-020-025-026-028>032-040>042. TX...None. && $$ 10/03
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
935 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017 .DISCUSSION... Light southerly wind will continue through tonight, and may even increase in parts of eastern OK overnight in response to tightening gradient. Normally more sheltered valley locations have seen enough decoupling of winds to allow temps to reach near forecast lows with potential for a few more degrees of cooling through the night. Have lowered mins a few degrees across far southeast OK, otherwise forecast is in good shape. Fire weather conditions Friday will be deteriorating quickly through the morning as winds increase significantly. While some degree of moisture return will commence during the day, RH values may still drop to near or below 25%, especially over northern sections, per last few operational HRRR runs. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 534 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. South winds will stay around 5-10 kts tonight...and increase considerably by Friday morning and afternoon with some gusts over 30 kts possible across northeast OK. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 PM CST Thu Feb 9 2017/ DISCUSSION... Sfc ridge has shifted east of the region with sustained southerly flow overnight keeping temps much more mild. A further increase in wind speeds are expected Friday with frequent gusts of 25 to 40 mph. These winds will combine with unseasonably warm temperatures to noticeably raise fire weather concerns. Forecast dewpoints were trended lower along the northern periphery of the moisture return which lowers humidities across NE OK into the upper 20-lower 30 percent range. Any fire starts tomorrow will likely spread aggressively and a fire weather watch has been posted accordingly. The unseasonably warm conditions will continue Friday night through Sat with record highs likely for a few locations. Continued the trend of warmer than guidance highs for Sat given the warmth within the thermal ridge. Dewpoints will also trend upward and winds are likely to be slightly less than Friday. That said the condition of fuels will continue to allow any fire starts to spread quickly. Cold front passes Sat night with a low chance of light precip for southern locations. Temps cool nearer seasonal normals for early next week with the evolution of a closed low developing over the southwestern states being the focus for precip potential thereafter. The favored solution w/ this forecast is for a slower eastward progression of the upper low with rain chances increasing primarily Monday night and continuing through Tuesday. The heavier precip amounts continue to look more likely across the southern portion of the forecast area. That said, these type of systems often result in widely varying solutions and the later portion of the forecast period should be understood to be of low confidence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 44 75 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 36 73 55 83 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 45 73 61 83 / 0 0 10 0 BVO 35 75 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 36 69 54 78 / 0 0 10 10 BYV 33 69 55 79 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 37 73 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 39 71 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 F10 43 74 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 39 73 57 82 / 0 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....99