Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/08/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
554 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
Plan to allow the freezing rain advisory to expire as scheduled at
6 p.m. Latest radar and surface observations indicate all the
precipitation has moved east of Clark and Taylor Counties. There
are still some returns evident from the KDLH radar but the 07.22Z
RAP and HRRR both show this staying well north of Taylor County
as a surface trough slips east. The forecast soundings from the
RAP do not show any vertical motion remaining this evening at
KRCX, so keeping the remaining precipitation north of Taylor
County makes sense.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
Some drizzle/freezing drizzle has persisted this afternoon ahead of
the stronger push of low-level cold advection/drying. Reports from
Taylor/Clark Counties have indicated some continued slippery
stretches on roads. The drizzle will gradually end through the
afternoon as the drier air advances eastward through the
afternoon, with maybe a few flurries as the cold air pushes
eastward with steep low level lapse rates. A frontogenetic band of
light snow will continue to progress quickly eastward across
north central WI this afternoon ahead of a secondary upper wave,
but otherwise expect mainly dry conditions by early evening. Gusty
northwest winds will continue into the evening before the
pressure gradient begins to relax and surface to 850 mb winds
decrease. With temps falling into the single digits and teens
tonight, any remaining water on road surfaces could freeze and
result in some slick spots.
For late tonight into early Wednesday, a fast-moving band of light
snow will slide southeastward from NE/SD through parts of IA and IL
aided by a weak upper wave and strong 800-600 mb frontogenesis. The
07.12Z NAM/GFS along with some of the high res models (NSSL WRF,
HopWRF, etc) keep any precip just south of the area, while the ECMWF
does clip parts of NE IA into far SW WI with a brief period of light
snow early Wednesday. Will have to watch for trends through the
evening with this system, but right now just have very low precip
chances into NE IA. Otherwise the rest of Wednesday will be much
colder and dry with highs in the teens to low 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
High pressure will continue to build across the area Wednesday
night into Thursday. The coldest 850 mb temps (-17 to -20C) will
be located over the region Wed night as the surface high center
drops into the central Plains. Lows Wed night will fall into the
single digits on either side of zero, coldest in north central WI
where wind chills may dip to -20 for a time early Thursday. Highs
Thursday will be in the teens to low 20s across the area.
The upper flow will begin to flatten late this week as an upper
shortwave trough moves across Southern Canada. Strong 1000-850 mb
warm air advection will develop ahead of this system Thursday night
into Friday. The strongest 850-700 mb frontogenesis ahead of the
wave is expected across northern Wisconsin Thursday night/Friday
morning, so a bit of light snow/mix is possible over north-central
WI, but light amounts. 925 mb temps warm considerably through the
day on Friday up to 3-8C by late afternoon. With southerly winds
becoming southwesterly, good warming is expected on Friday, even
after a chilly start in the single digits and teens. Highs on Friday
into the low to mid 40s are possible over much of the area,
although a bit cooler into north central WI. The ECMWF has
remained consistently milder than the GFS for Friday and into the
weekend, so far now have continued to follow a middle of the road
solution.
Some slightly cooler air does invade behind a weak cold front for
Saturday, but temps still will remain above average. The biggest
concern for the weekend, however, will be precip chances late
Saturday into Sunday as an upper trough swings through the region.
This could bring a period of wintry mix to the area Saturday night
into Sunday with GFS/ECMWF consensus tracking a surface low from
northern MO into the southern Great Lakes. Like many systems this
winter, the thermal structure both at the surface and aloft will
play a role in precip type. It`s still too early to have
confidence in amounts, and especially precip type, with
uncertainty in track and temperature profiles.
Behind this system, the Upper Midwest will be under the influence of
northwest flow and surface high pressure into early next week. It
looks like any cold air will be bottled up across eastern Canada
with seasonably mild air persisting over the area. Precip chances
also look pretty low Mon-Tue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
Watching an area of clearing that has been working across southern
Minnesota. The last few satellite images suggest this clearing may
have significantly slowed down its eastward progress so for now,
plan to stay with the clouds remaining which will maintain the
MVFR ceilings through much of the night at KRST while improving
just enough for VFR conditions as KLSE. Will continue to monitor
the cloud trends as the 07.22Z RAP would suggest this clearing
will continue to spread east and bring VFR conditions to both
sites this evening. High pressure will build in from the northwest
Wednesday bringing some drier air to allow the ceilings to improve
to VFR and for the clouds to begin scattering out.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
918 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Milder air and occasional rain, will be over the area tonight as a
low moves through the Great Lakes. A cold front will swing
through early Wednesday, ushering in colder air and scattered rain
and snow showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
915 PM update...
Tonight has been a sobering reminder of how poor the models...even
the high-resolution models...are at forecasting cold air damming
over our eastern forecast area. Conshort, RAP, and the HRRR have
provided no help this evening with their forecasts for
temperatures along our eastern border.
With the obs along the I-81 corridor jumping 2 to 4 degrees in the
last 90 minutes, it appears the cold air will finally be scoured
out of the east. In the meantime, we are handling pockets of
freezing rain with an SPS.
3 PM update...
Cold air has been stubborn to leave this afternoon over the far
north and east. Latest batch of heavier rain has not yet brought
in the milder air however temps are rising quickly behind it so
hopefully this will be the end of the icing. Overnight, warm air
advection continues and surface temps will continue to rise. Best
lift associated with the upper jet and overruning will have
lifted north by the end so rain will be more spotty, especially
over the southern zones.
Cold front sweeps through late tonight beginning a return to more
seasonable air. Temps will begin to fall over the west before 12Z
and continuew to fall across the forecast area through the day.
Not a whole lot of support for any precipitation with the cold air
advection strong but quite sheared and with a limited lake fetch.
As the showers chage to snow they will diminish through the
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued a winter storm watch for our far southern counties
including Luzerne, Lackwanna, Pike, southern Wayne in PA and
Sullivan County in NY for Wednesday night through Thursday. All
models show a low-level baroclinic wave dropping east-southeast
from the midwest Wednesday. This low-level feature will intensify
as it rapidly tracks northeast to near the middle Atlantic coast
by Thursday morning. The upper level trough will dig in to the
Carolinas Thursday and go negatively tilted. The low-level cyclone
rapidly works northeast with significant lift and frontogenetical
forcing mainly across eastern PA to southern New England. Our far
southern counties get grazed so we issued a watch for 5-8 inches
of snow to cover. Based on all the guidance we looked at, unless
a shift to the west occurs, most of our forecast area will be
spared the brunt of this storm. But if the storm slows down more,
the heavier snow would fall farther west and north. For now we
will mention this in our HWO for counties north and west of the
winter storm watch for the potential of several inches of snow.
Issued a DSS briefing which covers this potential as well for
this westward trend of more snow. It is something for later shifts
to monitor.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For Thursday night, northwest flow along with 850 mb temperatures
around -20 C will help develop some lake effect snow across
north central NY with otherwise just some scattered flurries and
cold temperatures rest of central NY and northeast PA.
Late Friday into Saturday, warm air advection pattern develops
and will produce from light snow into Saturday morning. Another wave
will approach for Sunday producing another batch of mixed
precipitation changing to light rain.
Then for early next week, colder air will surge back into the
region with more lake effect snow showers.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure over Lake Huron will track into southern Ontario
overnight and drag a cold front through the terminals toward
daybreak.
In general IFR/alternate required conditions will continue through
the overnight period. At KITH/KBGM, alternate minimum conditions
will occasionally occur through late evening. Late tonight as the
prefrontal trough moves through conditions will improve slightly
with improvement to MVFR/VFR during the mid morning hours on
Wednesday.
Low level wind shear will continue through 09Z across the region
with s/sw winds at 2k feet around 40 knots. Surface winds e/se at
10 knots with gusts to 20 knots on the hilltops shifting to
southwest around 09z then westerly toward daybreak.
OUTLOOK...
Wednesday night-Thursday...Possible restrictions in snow at KAVP
and KBGM, with mainly VFR otherwise.
Friday-Friday night...At least scattered snow showers, with
associated restrictions.
Saturday - Sunday...A wintry mix, with associated restrictions.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
evening for PAZ044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
evening for NYZ062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...RRM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1044 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will come through the area tonight
providing a chance of thunderstorms. Another system will come
through Wednesday night and provide a chance of showers and
possible thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air will filter into
the region Thursday into Friday with breezy conditions Thursday
afternoon. Fair and warmer Saturday and Sunday. A weak front,
with limited moisture, expected to come through Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Shortwave trough over the Southeastern US will shift east across
the area overnight. Surface low over the Great Lakes region will
shift northeastward with an associated cold front moving into
the Western Appalachian region. Regional radar as of 0330Z
shows showers and thunderstorms moving northeastward across the
FA. Precipitable water values are currently around 1.3 inches,
but the deeper moisture will shift toward the coast overnight.
A few moderate to heavy showers are currently across the
central and eastern Midlands, but storm movement will preclude
any type of flooding threat. Severe threat has diminished given
lack of instability. Shower activity will mainly be east of the
forecast area by daybreak Wednesday morning. Mild overnight low
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level shortwave will be moving east of the area Wednesday.
Broad scale subsidence and drying mid-levels will prevent
precipitation through mid-day. High temperatures will be in the mid
to upper 70s, near record values, with warm advection over the area
ahead of an approaching cold front. There is a slight chance of
convection Wednesday afternoon. However despite some weak potential
instability there will be a significant dry layer and mid-level
inversion hindering development. The HRRR suggests high level clouds
will move over the area during the afternoon. Depending on the
timing this may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than
currently forecast.
Wednesday night, a digging upper level trough and associated
cold front will move across the region. Moisture will be limited
during the frontal passage and models have been inconsistent
with precipitation chances. Scattered showers will be possible
through the evening with the best chances in the northern
Midlands where the dynamics are stronger.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad upper level trough will move east of the region late this
week bringing drier, cooler air in to the forecast area. A tight
pressure gradient will lead to windy conditions Thursday with gusts
from 25 to 35 mph. Surface high pressure will move over the region
Friday, weakening the pressure gradient and wind speeds. Temperatures
will be near normal.
Models have been consistent indicating upper level ridging over the
region for the weekend and early next week. A warming trend will
bring temperatures back to above normal for the weekend with some
moisture return as the surface high shifts off the coast. Models
show some indication of a backdoor cold front moving in to the
forecast area near the end of the extended period increasing
the probability of precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through
the area until around 08z associated with a surface trough and
mid-level shortwave trough. MVFR restrictions are likely with
IFR conditions possible. High low-level moisture and added
cooling behind the upper feature will likely lead to ifr stratus
and/or fog. Stratus may be favored because of some continued
mixing. Heating and mixing should lead to improvement late in
the morning or early in the afternoon. We leaned toward the GFS
LAMP for the timing. Also followed the LAMP guidance for the
wind forecast. Expect mainly southwest winds around 5 knots
tonight and 10 knots Wednesday. Shear will be high associated
with a low-level jet tonight, but based on the NAM believe
conditions will be just below the criteria for inclusion of LLWS
in the TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Deeper moisture is forecast Wednesday night associated with a
cold front supporting showers and associated restrictions.
Thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday night.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
908 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
.UPDATE...
No major changes are needed to the forecast for the remainder of
the evening. Moist northwest flow aloft will continue to spread
high cloudiness across the region through tomorrow. The cold front
is currently located across southern Kansas and will continue to
slide south faster than the global models are indicating. It
should be entering our far northwest counties by morning and will
continue to push through the remainder of the area by afternoon.
Our main concern will continue to be fire weather potential as
winds will become northwest and gusty behind the front in an
environment that remains dry. This threat will diminish later in
the day with cooling temperatures and slightly higher humidity.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 547 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017/
The upper level pattern across the CONUS for the next day or so
will be defined by a deepening trough across the Eastern Seaboard
and a strengthening ridge over the Intermountain West. The
resulting northwest flow aloft across the Central U.S. will force
a cold front southward though the Southern plains tonight and
into North and Central Texas on Wednesday. Ahead of the front,
westerly winds behind today`s dryline should back to a more
southwesterly direction over the next few hours with speeds
generally in the 5 to 10 KT range at all TAF locations. The
current forecast will indicate FROPA in the DFW Metroplex around
16Z and KACT an hour or so later. The primary concern will be the
likelihood of north flow at DFW by late morning. One change to
this set of TAFs was to include gusts Wednesday afternoon, as some
of the projected 25 to 30 KT 850 MB winds mix down. Gusts will
subside after sunset Wednesday evening. Otherwise, conditions
should remain VFR areawide.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017/
It`s been quite a warm and breezy day across the region, with
temperatures this hour running some 15 to 20 degrees above normal
although these are, admittedly, a bit under what I would have
anticipated yesterday. Relative humidity values are running in
the teens to the west of I-35, and in the lower to middle 20s to
the east. Wind speeds continue to gradually diminish as the core
of flow aloft translates eastward, although gusts of 20-25 mph are
still occurring across parts of Central Texas. Elevated fire
weather concerns will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon before winds come down below 10 mph area-wide early this
evening. Relative humidity will recover nicely, into the 50-60
percent range overnight.
Moisture will try to surge northward tonight as southwesterly 925
mb winds increase into the 30-40 kt range, but latest indications
are that the brunt of this moisture will remain just south and
east of our forecast area. As a result, do not anticipate another
round of low clouds and fog across the southeast tonight.
Our next feature of interest is a cold front which is currently
moving southward across the Central Great Plains. Short-term
trends reveal that the global models are doing a poor job handling
the forward speed and level of dry/cool air behind the front.
Current surface observations reveal a greater thermal/moisture
gradient associated with this front across Kansas and into
Nebraska than coarse-resolution model data would portend. Given
this, along with forecasts of respectable pressure-rises
developing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles tonight, opted to
significantly increase the front timing on Wednesday. This is more
in line with forecast solutions from the NCAR ensemble, NSSL WRF,
and latest iterations of the RAP and HRRR, which move the front
across the Red River as early as the mid-morning on Wednesday. As
a result, lowered high temperatures into the 60s to near 70 across
most of our Red River counties where cold air advection will take
hold in the morning. Elsewhere, high temperatures will be in the
upper 70s to middle 80s.
In addition, given upstream observations of dewpoints in the teens
and single digits, dewpoints were lowered region-wide tomorrow and
wind speeds were increased. The end result of these changes is
the potential for another round of elevated to near-critical fire
weather concerns on Wednesday as RH values fall into the 20-30
percent range with breezy north to northwesterly winds. At this
time, it appears that wind speeds should remain just under
critical fire weather thresholds, but this will need to be
monitored closely.
Cooler conditions (although still near or slightly above normal)
are in store on Thursday. This will be short-lived, however, as
breezy south winds will return on Friday. Temperatures by Saturday
across our western zones may soar well into the 80s once again,
and another round of elevated fire weather concerns appears
possible west of I-35 on Saturday afternoon.
Another cold front will slice through the region on Sunday, and
have favored the faster ECMWF solution given its fairly shallow
nature. A period of unsettled weather is in store Sunday and into
next week as warm and moist air begins to ride up and over this
shallow and cool airmass. Overall, the threat for thunder appears
low next week given limited instability, but some isolated storms
cannot be ruled out, especially Sunday afternoon and overnight.
Carlaw
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 54 76 39 61 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 49 83 41 65 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 50 74 37 58 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 47 73 35 58 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 47 75 37 58 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 56 76 40 60 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 51 76 40 61 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 54 80 42 64 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 50 84 44 67 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 47 76 37 62 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1006 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track eastward across southern Quebec
through Wednesday. Snow will be transitioning to sleet,
freezing rain and rain tonight and into Wednesday morning.
The precipitation will taper off in most areas on Wednesday
morning as low pressure moves east, pulling a cold front across
the area during the day. Low pressure passing offshore may
bring another round of plowable snow to the area Thursday. Much
colder air will follow this system for Thursday night and Friday.
Weak low pressure could provide another round of light snow Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Update...Now not even the HRRR is keeping pace with the
magnitude of low level cold across the forecast area. At this
point the most likely ASOS/AWOS site to climb above freezing
might be HIE on downsloping winds. Otherwise...I have trouble
see any location outside somewhere on the immediate coast going
above freezing before about 09z. Srn NH may see the surface warm
front edge into the area between 09z and 12z. KGYX 88D data
shows correlation coefficient min gradually lifting Nwd. That
is mirroring the transition to sleet well...which is to be
expected. The good news is that low level cold is deep enough
that dry slot precip is probably going to fall as very light
snow rather than freezing drizzle. The area to watch will be
precip just ahead of the occluded front...which could fall as
freezing rain across a good chunk of the forecast area before
coming to an end Wed morning.
Previous discussion...Complex weather situation continues to
unfold with arctic high pressure situated in place to our north.
This is locking in cold, Arctic air in the lower levels on
gusty northeasterly winds late this afternoon. Pool of cold air
with low dew points will continue to dominate the lowest levels
of the atmosphere, more than all available guidance would
suggest otherwise. Models also in stark disagreement with the
timing of warm air entering northern New England aloft. Leaned
towards cooler GGEM temperatures aloft, keeping the
precipitation in the form of snow for the a prolonged period of
time over central and northern areas as strong warm air
advection continues ahead of large surface low moving towards
the eastern Great Lakes.
Over the south, warm air will initially attempt to enter the
region aloft over far southwestern New Hampshire. Transition
zone will march slowly to the north overnight. However, in the
meantime there will continue to be pockets of moderate to heavy
snow with the visibility falling to near a quarter mile at
times. Have issued an AWW for Manchester airport. Will be
updating this product shortly.
Snow will continue during the late night hours which will allow
a few of the central areas to have slightly higher accumulations.
A band of snow that was quasi-stationary in nature early this
morning over central Maine will add to the snow totals for this
system. Have used the snow amounts from PNS tool to bring this
additional snowfall into the snow total products.
Have gone below model temperatures overnight. QPF close in line
to the RFC guidance.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any leftover mix ends quickly from south to north Wednesday
morning. Flow becomes westerly with dry air quickly advecting
into the region. This will allow temperatures to climb well into
the 40s across much of the region. This will leading to melting
of the precipitation.
A cold front will sweep through the region Wednesday evening.
This will allow much cooler air into the region and allow a
refreeze of precipitation. Icy roads may become an issue.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The models are in decent agreement on the longwave pattern through
day 10. We begin the period with digging shortwave energy over
the Great Lakes that quickly carves out a significant trough to
our west. This feature gives rise to a surface low that exits the
coast vicinity of the DELMARVA and subsequently races east-
northeast. The low will remain to the south and east of the
40N/70W benchmark but close enough to give southern and coastal
sections of the forecast area measurable snow on Thursday. Over
the past day the numericals have trended further west and north
with this storm system. The upper trough lifts out into the
maritimes early Friday followed briefly by a ridge of high
pressure. In the wake of the upper trough...broad west-southwest
flow will usher milder air back into the region with overrunning
clouds and the prospect of some light warm air advection snows
Friday night into Saturday. We`ll see a brief break Saturday night
before a more significant shortwave and associated surface low
bring a round of mixed precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night. In the wake of this surface low...an upper trough should
produce plenty of clouds along with a few snow showers in the
higher terrain both Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...LIFR and IFR conditions. Snow transitioning to
sleet and freezing rain from south to north overnight. VFR
tomorrow with gusty westerly winds developing by late Wednesday.
Long Term...
Thu...MVFR with areas of IFR near the coast in sn. N sfc wnd
gusting to 25 kt.
Fri night - SAT...MVFR in -sn with areas of IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Gales continue over the outer waters and Penobscot
Bay. SCAs continue for Casco Bay tonight. Will need to
transition the gales to scas late tonight.
Long Term...
Thu - Fri...Small craft conditions are likely...with gales
possible outside the bays.
Sat - Sun...Small craft conditions are possible outside the
bays.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Wednesday for
MEZ012>014-018>022.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for
MEZ023>028.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ007>009.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Wednesday for
NHZ005>010.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for
NHZ001>004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for
NHZ011>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ153.
Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Legro
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
919 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
.NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 919 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
Cellular deep convection along the cold front was dropping into
northern middle TN. Based upon the 00Z OHX sounding, surface based
instability is lacking as these storms push southeast. However, steep
mid to upper level lapse rates exist. The HRRR expects this activity
to die off as it moves southeast, while the NAM indicates some
potential to develop further southwest into the narrow instability
corridor that extends into MS. With this in mind, will go with a 20
POP late tonight, although if coverage expands, we may need to raise
the pop in our southern TN and perhaps northwest AL counties.
Otherwise, low ceilings remain and some patchy fog could still
develop. Clearing is not making any progress to the northeast, so
widespread dense fog may not occur.
.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
Showers and storms may develop ahead of the cold front as a
shortwave trough deepens across the Midwest to the Southeast.
Elevated/surface instability parameters and weak to moderate wind
shear appear to support the possibility storms to increase in
intensity during the early morning hours on Wednesday. However, the
forcing looks to be displaced somewhat from the instability/shear.
Even without that, these discrete storms could have deep sustained
cores with a brief microburst and small hail threat. Then forecast
soundings and plan view instability parameters show an increasingly
unstable environment during the early to late afternoon (noon-4pm).
Surface based CAPE is currently forecast to rise to 1000-1700 J/kg
with modest wind shear (0-3 km bulk shear up to 30-40 kts, 0-3 km SRH
up to 200 m2/s2). This could mean an episode of discrete cells with
gusty to damaging winds up to 60 MPH and hail threat. Some things to
keep in mind for the afternoon scenario is the limiting factors: 1)
cloud cover may not break enough to increase surface based
instability, 2) any storms/showers that develop in the early morning
may mitigate or keep surface based instability lower, 3) the surface
front is to the north of the region and shouldn`t pass over the area
until late Wednesday evening.
So, given these limiting factors, incorporated thunderstorm timing
to capture the morning convective activity and chance of activity in
the afternoon. Another item to keep in mind is the daytime high
temperatures will likely rise into the low 70s (convective
temperature) in portions of the area which is heavily dependent on
how expansive the morning activity is.
The front should then finally pass over the region in the late
afternoon and evening bringing a substantial cool down. Some
lingering rain may mix with some snow in the higher elevations early
on Thursday morning, but this will be dependent on how quickly the
precipitation moves off to the northeast. Overnight lows should drop
rapidly into the low to mid 30s by Thursday morning. With the now
longwave trough almost atop the region, windy conditions and cold
conditions are expected on Thursday with strong NW winds of 10-15 MPH
with gusts up to 25 MPH are possible. Wind speeds of 30-35 kts at
850mb and 100-120kts at 500 mb could cause some momentum mixing
especially with the clearing sky. Cloud cover over the northeast may
actually persist until late morning. As a result, the winds could be
even higher depending on how much mixing occurs. Daytime highs should
hold in the low 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
The extended forecast will start out on a warm and dry note thanks
to sfc high pressure across the region and returning southerly flow.
Daytime highs on Friday will jump towards the 60s and overnight lows
will improve from Thursday by nearly 20 degrees cooling only into the
upper 40s. Dry conditions will persist into Saturday morning as the
sfc high continues to shift eastward. Plentiful southerly flow will
improve temps further this weekend, with some close to 70 degrees on
Sunday! However, some isentropic lift will provide a slight chance of
showers Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Also continued to go a
little below guidance on the weekend POPs. A cold front will extend
down into the region from a sfc low near the Great Lakes on Sunday.
This front will weaken as is progresses southward and moves into the
TN Valley early Monday morning bringing the next round of rain and
more seasonable temps.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
Low ceilings of 010-015agl (MVFR) will likely fall below 010agl (IFR)
by 03Z with vsbys also beginning to drop into the 3-5sm range. By
~08Z, vsbys may drop to 2sm or below and ceilings down to around
005agl (near LIFR). Conditions will be slow to improve on Wednesday
morning until drier and warmer air arrive by midday. Ceilings should
lift back above 030agl (VFR) during the afternoon hours. There is a
risk of isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon, but the probability is too low to include in the terminal
forecasts at this time.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...SL.77
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...17
For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1036 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain well above normal through Wednesday.
An approaching cold front will bring the risk of showers and
thunderstorms. The cold front will move across the area Thursday
morning. Strong Canadian High Pressure will bring dry and cool
weather Friday. The high will then move off the coast allowing
for a warm up over the weekend into early next week. A cold
front will drop south Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1030 PM Tuesday...The latest KLTX 88D trends combined with
output from the latest HRRR and HiResWARW models, all indicate
their respective timing of the northeast movement of the pcpn
into the southwest portions of the ILM CWA between 11 pm and
midnight. It`s continued progress across the FA will occur
during the predawn Wed hours thru daybreak before finally
exiting NE to E of the coastal counties by mid to late Wednesday
daylight morning. There continues to be a borderline threshold
for either sfc and/or elevated CAPE for convection. Enough to
indicate isolated thunderstorm activity in the local and various
forecasts. Have adjusted overnight hourly sfc temps/dewpoints
due to current trends but still keeping the fcst overnight lows
in the mid to upper 50s. Have included the immediate coast with
possible onshore movement of sea fog thru the overnight and well
into daylight Wed. Although it`s onshore movement will become
limited due to low level winds becoming WSW during daylight Wed.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Potent shortwave will be exiting the area
Wed morning. SW winds will veer to the west behind this
shortwave allowing for some drying in the mid levels through
Wed. The drier air and subsidence should limit shower activity
once any lingering convection ends associated with shortwave in
the morning. This should allow for clouds to break up heading
into the afternoon and temps to soar into the 70s once again.
May see a stray shower in the aftn associated with localized
convergence.
Expect another round of showers and possible thunderstorms
overnight Wed into Thurs as a cold front makes its way through
the Carolinas. Gusty southwest winds will increase late Wed into
Thurs and may see some stronger gusts in isolated convection
possible ahead of cold front heading into early Thurs morning.
Plenty of dry air and subsidence will follow the cold front on
Thurs with clearing skies and much colder air making its way
late Thurs into Thurs night. Temps should plummet to below
freezing by Fri morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Cold front offshore Friday will lead to a
cold and blustery day locally despite abundant sunshine. Temps
Friday will likely remain well below climo with highs only in the
upper 40s to low 50s, but as has been the case many times this
winter, the cold will be short lived. Large surface high pressure
pushes across the Gulf Coast and then offshore by Saturday, while
highly amplified ridge blossoms across the southeast through the
wknd. This suggests a very nice wknd locally, with highs climbing
well into the 70s by Sunday and Monday in a continued dry column. On
Tuesday a weak cold front will drop southward into the Carolinas,
but at this time it appears moisture starved with only subtly cooler
air behind it.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 00Z...Southwest winds will prevail through the period as
surface low lifts across the Great Lakes and trailing cold front
drags across the MS/TN river valley. Strong/severe convection
ongoing across the Gulf Coast states ahead of potent mid-level
shortwave will move east and remain south of the area, but weaker
shower activity could affect the terminals after midnight. There is
potential for IFR late tonight which, if it develops, should improve
to VFR by around noon Wednesday. There is also the potential for sea
fog development tonight as mid-upper 50s dewpoints extend over
cooler shelf waters and could result in drastically lower
visibilities at KCRE and KMYR. Confidence is too low to include in
the forecast at this time.
Extended outlook...Cold frontal passage Thursday will be
accompanied by scattered showers and periods of MVFR.
Otherwise, expect VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 PM Tuesday...South flow will veer to a Southwest
flow direction during late this evening and overnight. A modest
gradient will exist with 15 kt sustained speeds with some gusts
to 20 kt later tonight into Wed. A sfc trof of low pressure
will push from west to east across the local waters during
daytime Wednesday morning. This will further veer the winds to a
temporary WSW-W direction by late morning Wed. With sfc
dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 moving across near shore
SSTS in the upper 40s to low 50s, sea fog development will
become a reality. The south to southwest flow will occasionally
push the sea fog onshore. Horizontal vsby may drop to 1nm or
less which is the threshold for dense fog across the area
waters. Dense fog thresholds onshore is less than 1/2sm.
Significant seas initially will run 2 to 4 ft and will build to
3 to 5 ft especially across the ILM NC waters.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Winds veer around to become more off
shore and lighten up after shortwave moves through Wed morning.
This will help to briefly lower seas, especially near shore
through the afternoon hours on Wed. The winds will increase
again heading into Wed night as cold front approaches from the
west. Winds should increase from 10 to 15 kts up to 15 to 25 kts
with higher gusts by Thurs morning ahead of cold front and will
continue strong as they veer around to the NW behind front
through Thurs aftn. The stronger off shore flow will keep seas
much higher in the off shore waters. Seas will run 3 to 5 ft
early Wed but will decrease with brief period of lighter off
shore flow Wed aftn but then will ramp up above SCA thresholds
Wed night into Thurs with seas peaking up to 6 to 8 ft in outer
waters.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Gusty winds behind a cold front will ease
quickly early Friday, with some residual 3-5 ft seas leftover
through the first few hours of the period. Thereafter, high pressure
builds overhead the waters, leaving a weak gradient Friday into
Saturday before SW winds begin to increase Saturday and Sunday as
the high pressure settles offshore. Wind speeds increase to 10-15
kts Saturday and remain elevated on Sunday. Highest seas occur very
early Friday as noted, before falling to 2-3 ft much of the
remainder of the period.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
937 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 936 PM EST Tue Feb 07 2017
The cold front has just begun to enter the forecast area. Winds at
French Lick and Huntingburg in southern IN have shifted to
northwesterly. The storms mentioned in the previous update have
moved into southwestern portions of central KY. Some small hail
could be possible with these storms. Further to the north, showers
and storms have had a hard time developing, though a few sprinkles
have been noted on radar. Pops were therefore lowered in this area.
The best chance for storms over the next couple of hours will
continue to be across south central KY.
Issued at 648 PM EST Tue Feb 07 2017
Some light showers continue across the Bluegrass region this
evening. To the west of the forecast area, a few storms have
developed just ahead of the cold front that will be pushing through
tonight. Mesoanalysis shows these storms have formed in an area of
instability with SBCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg and effective
bulk shear of around 40 knots. The axis of instability and shear
extend into southwestern central KY. Some hail has been reported
with one of the storms and if they hold together, this could
continue to be possible for the next couple of hours. The latest
HRRR runs continue to initiate storms along the rest of the cold
front across southern IN. However, instability is lacking, so not as
confident in that developing. Some showers may be more likely. Grids
were updated to account for the current radar trends, but no major
changes made.
&&
.Short Term (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017
Showers and isolated storms were mainly along and east of I-65 as of
3pm this afternoon. Expect this convection to continue to move east
through early evening. This should be the end of the widespread
soaking rains for today.
However, upstream the cold front was still located over IL, clouds
are thin or becoming scattered, and instability is building again.
Looking at satellite, some cu are starting to become enhanced very
close to the cold front. Some high-res models do indicate
convection re-firing this evening along the front and moving east
through the area through the late evening hrs. Think that there is
a decent chance that we could see one final round of scattered
showers/storms later this evening between 7pm-1am. Strength of the
storms will be in question. Think that severe chances are very low,
but a strong storm or two could produce small hail or gusty winds
according to the latest soundings. Convection will largely diminish
after midnight with lows mainly in the 40s.
For Wed, expect a mainly dry morning with another round of showers
and possibly a rumble of thunder tomorrow afternoon courtesy of an
upper level trough. The best chance for t-storms will be over south
central KY. Highs will range from the mid 40s to lower 60s.
Wed night, colder air will filter into the region changing over any
left over light precipitation from rain to light snow or rain/snow
mix. Little to no snow accums are expected but snow
showers/flurries many linger over east central KY into Thu morning.
Low temps should fall into the 20s.
.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 335 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017
Thursday morning we could see some lingering snow showers/flurries
over east central KY. Most precipitation should end by midday with
skies becoming partly cloudy late in the day. High temps will only
be in the 30s Thu afternoon.
Friday will be a dry day before rain returns on Sat as a warm front
lifts north through the region and we enter a moist, unstable
airmass. Rain chances will increase through Sun as another strong
cold front approaches. The front should move through the region
some time late Sun or early Mon. Although we kept t-storm mention
out due to lack of confidence in timing, it may need to be added Sun
or Mon. Temps ahead of this front look to warm up into the 60s
maybe approaching 70 this weekend.
Monday night and Tues will be dry behind the front in a cooler air
mass.
&&
.Aviation (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 615 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017
Surface cold front will pass through central Kentucky between 00-
03z. Current radar shows isolated to scattered showers developing
across southwest KY, which may impact BWG around 02z. Otherwise, dry
weather is expected at the terminals.
Behind the front, MVFR ceilings will spread over the TAF sites then
begin to lower into IFR range overnight. Expect IFR ceilings with
some vsby reductions into Wednesday morning. With light winds and
baggy surface pressure fields, the IFR conditions could persist into
Wednesday afternoon.
Another disturbance will quickly pass over the area and bring the
potential for scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm at BWG.
North winds will develop toward the end of the period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...EER
Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
643 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
Updated aviation discussion.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 235 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
In the near term, the main focus is on the cold front that
extended from kmvn to 20 mi west of kpof at 19z. Latest 1930z
visible satellite images indicated a line of developing cumulus
along the front from kmvn to north of kpof. As previously noted,
deep-layer drying in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough has
inhibited growth of updrafts. The 17z rap model soundings
indicated the leading edge of dry air will remain just ahead of
the front as it reaches the Lower Ohio Valley early this evening.
Any convective development would be confined to the deeper
moisture ahead of the front. The hrrr model has been indicating
some convective cells will develop over the Pennyrile region of
west Kentucky after 21z. Will keep chance pops in the forecast
through early this evening, mainly east of a line from the Wabash
River to kpah. Cold mid-level temps and moderate shear could
result in a few strong cells, but the overall severe threat has
become very minimal.
Once the front moves east of our region this evening, colder north
winds will lower temps into the 30s and 40s by morning. Areas of
post-frontal stratocu are depicted by the model low-level rh
forecasts late tonight.
On Wednesday, a 500 mb impulse will move southeast from the
central Plains. There is good model agreement that this system
will produce some light qpf across parts of our region. GFS
ensemble mean qpf is representative of the 12z model blend, which
targets areas north and east of kpah for light precip. The precip
type will be rain due to warm boundary layer temps, however any
precip that lingers into Wed evening could be wet snow. Highs Wed
will vary widely, from the lower 40s along I-64 to the mid 50s
along the Tennessee border.
A shot of cold air will arrive Wed night, with 850 mb temps
falling to around minus 10 on Thursday. Despite abundant sunshine
associated with a strong surface high, temps will only reach the
30s (except for some lower 40s in the Ozark foothills). As the
strong surface high moves to our east Thursday night, winds will
become southeast. Forecast lows are in the 20s, but a slightly
slower movement of the surface high would bring calm winds and
lows in the teens.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
High pressure will be centered over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
This will keep our region in south to southwest flow Friday into
Saturday night. This will result in well above normal temperatures
through the weekend, with our warmest day on Saturday with highs in
the 60s. Models indicate warm air advection ahead of an approaching
cold front will trigger some showers across our region Saturday into
Saturday night, with the better chances across southwest Indiana and
west Kentucky.
Models bring the cold front across the PAH forecast area on Sunday,
and precipitation chances will be more uniform across the area
Sunday afternoon, gradually tapering off from northwest to southeast
Sunday night. A few showers may linger in our far southeast
counties Monday morning. Along and ahead of the front, GFS and
ECMWF indicate LIs of 0 to -4, and CAPE values of 200 to 600 J/kg,
with ECMWF being the more impressive of the two. Introduced slight
chances of thunderstorms across our southern half of counties for
Sunday, with just showers after 00z Monday.
We will cool down behind the front for early next week as high
pressure builds to our west. Cool down is a relative term, however,
as readings will still generally be 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal
normals.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 643 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017
As a cold front continues to pass through the region this evening,
any remaining low clouds will eventually erode away to the east. A
broken line of showers and tstms along the front will remain in the
Pennyrile region of KY, clipping the Purchase area near the lakes.
This activity is expected to decrease in intensity and eventually
end in the early evening as it moves east-southeastward. Winds will
turn into the northwest behind the front.
Later tonight, winds will become northerly and then northeasterly
Wed morning. A low cloud deck will likely move south into the
southwestern IN, northwestern KY, and southern IL area by daybreak.
Not sure if an MVFR cig will form then. Late in the 00Z TAF period,
cigs of at least the MVFR variety will probably form across
southwestern IN and the Pennyrile region of KY ahead of a mid level
impulse, and along with an increase in wind, showers are possible.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY/DB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
237 PM PST Tue Feb 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A warm frontal boundary across Central and Northern
Oregon this afternoon will drift weaken tonight. Another warm front
moves into the Southern Oregon coastal waters late tonight then
slowly moves north Wednesday. Offshore low-level flow strengthens
late tonight and Wednesday, which will pull colder air into the
Columbia Gorge. A very moist frontal zone reaches the coast Wednesday
afternoon and slowly pushes inland Thursday. Residual cold air in and
near the Gorge will bring the potential for mixed precipitation as
far west as the Portland metro area Wednesday morning. There is the a
high potential for significant icing in the Western Columbia Gorge
Wednesday through Thursday morning. Snow will be the predominant
precipitation type Wednesday and Wednesday night for the Central
Gorge, Hood River Valley and Wind River Valley. The freezing rain
threat will persist in the Central Columbia Gorge, Hood River Valley
and valleys near Mt. Adams Thursday. After a
few lingering showers Friday, high pressure is expected to develop
late Saturday and hold through Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...Moisture associated with a
warm-frontal boundary pushed more north than most models expected.
Snow has been falling since this morning in the Hood River Valley and
around Hood River, as well as the Cascades and foothills. Water vapor
imagery early this afternoon shows darkening along the Central Oregon
Coast. A long moisture fetch extends from Northern California to near
Hawaii. The 19Z HRRR model indicates the surface low over
South-Central Oregon. The low drifts east and weakens through the
evening. The offshore low-level flow (KTTD-KDLS) peaked around -5 mb
early this morning. As of 20Z the gradient had fallen to -2 mb. The
low-level east or up-slope flow has helped promote the steady
snowfall in the Hood River Valley, Central Gorge and valleys near Mt.
Adams. Expect snowfall to diminish through the evening with the
weakening up-slope flow.
The frontal boundary weakens through tonight, but really never goes
away. The primary weather event will be Wed morning through Thu.
Another deepening low pressure area in the Central Pacific this
evening throws out a warm front over the coastal waters late tonight.
This new warm front becomes attached to the remnant frontal boundary
left over from today. In any event, strong warm advection develops
late tonight and Wed. This also strengthens the offshore low-level
flow through the Gorge. This system has some decent precipitable
water associated with it...around 1.50 inches with a moisture tap
that goes SW across Hawaii. It also has impressive integrated water
vapor transport, on the order of 1000 to 1100 kg per m per second
directed at the south and central Oregon coast 12Z Thu. However, the
directional transport is from the SSW, not as favorable as SW to W
direction. In any event, this system will produce another round of
significant precipitation Wed afternoon through Thursday. By 06Z Thu
the GFS and NAM indicate an impressive 60-80 kt SW 850 mb wind into
the Oregon Coast Range, which will result in premium orographic
enhancement to the precipitation. At this point, it appears this
system may produce around 2 inches of QPF for the inland valleys, 2-4
inches for the coast, and 3-6 inches for the higher terrain by the
time the parent upper trough swings through Thursday night. Given the
warmer temperatures and existing snowpack in the lower elevations of
the Coast Range and Cascades, there are definitely some hydro
concerns with this system.
The Columbia Gorge, Hood River Valley and areas around Mt. Adams in
the South Washington Cascades will be under the gun for significant
winter weather precipitation. A NAM sounding near near KCZK suggests
light snow Wed morning, but transitioning to moderate -FZRA by early
afternoon. Columbia Basin temperatures this afternoon are generally
in 20s, so there is a decent source of cold air available to get
pulled into the Gorge Wed by the strengthening offshore flow. Enough
low-level cold air may linger in the PDX metro for some brief
freezing rain Wed morning, but for the most part it appears the ice
storm threat will be in the Gorge. Given the copious QPF associated
with this system, there may be some damaging ice accumulations in the
Gorge. Will be converting the Winter Storm Watch for the Western
Columbia Gorge to an Ice Storm Warning valid 15Z Wed through 18Z Thu.
The most likely zone for significant icing Wed through Thu seems to
be from near Multnomah Falls to around KCZK. Areas to the east and
also the Wind River Valley should see more snow, or a later
transition to -FZRA. The big winners for snowfall will likely be
eastern Skamania County, where up to 2 feet of snow may occur near
Mount Adams...including Trout Lake (just across the border in
Klickitat County). Cold air is notoriously stubborn in these areas in
easterly flow, and much lower snow levels will likely linger in
eastern Skamania County than for western portions of the county. Will
go with a Winter Storm Warning for these areas Wed morning through
Thu afternoon.
Another concern with this system is wind along the coast. The latest
NAM not as impressive as its previous runs with the 850-900 mb wind
field. The 12Z run shows 55-70 kt 900 mb wind along the coast Thu
morning, with the most favorable north-to-south surface gradient
along the central and north Oregon coast. The ECMWF is not quite as
strong with the wind field. The 12km WRF-NAM suggests coastal jet
development late Wed night through Thu morning with 55-60 kt wind
gusts. Will go with a High Wind Watch valid 08Z Thu through 00Z Fri.
The primary baroclinic feature finally pushes through the region late
Thu or Thu evening. However, the upper level trough does not rotate
through until Fri. Models hint at a cold front or well-organized
surface trough reaching the coast 12Z Fri and pushing across the area
during the day. Snow levels fall to 3000 to 4000 ft Fri. Weishaar
.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Tuesday...The upper level trough
moves well east of the area Friday night, with high pressure
developing in the Eastern Pacific. Shower activity diminishes Friday
night, but will linger into Saturday morning. The ECMWF actually
holds on to some showers across tlhe far north into Saturday
afternoon. Models in general agreement showing an upper level ridge
building across the Pac NW late Saturday through Sunday. This should
bring a reprieve from the wet weather this weekend, but with abundant
surface moisture and relatively light winds expect patchy fog to
develop across the area at night and potentially linger well into the
morning hours through early next week. A weak wave dents the ridge
Mon, but not expecting any precipitation from this feature. High
pressure and associated offshore low-level flow returns Mon night and
Tue. Weishaar
&&
.AVIATION...Mix of IFR, MVFR, and VFR cigs this afternoon with
the worst conditions in the south and better conditions north.
Expect conditions to begin improving after 23Z with most
locations improving to VFR overnight. First half of the overnight
period should be dry at most locations before precipitation
begins to spread over the area again Thursday morning from south
to north. Visibilities will worsen gradually as the precipitation
moves in. Expect a brief period of freezing rain Wed morning at
KTTD, but temperatures should quickly rise above freezing by
later in the morning.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected into the overnight
hours. Cannot rule out occasional MVFR cigs with any of the
heavier showers this afternoon, but not likely enough to include
in the TAF. Deteriorating visibilities and ceilings Wednesday
morning as precipitation moves into the area. Very slight chance
for freezing rain at precipitation onset, but expect temperatures
to remain above 32 tonight. /Bentley
&&
.MARINE...Winds will start to increase tomorrow morning ahead of
the approaching low. Will keep start time of 14Z for the Small
Craft Advisory for Winds, but the start time may need to be
pushed up for the southern waters as both 18Z NAM and GFS
indicate 25 knot southerly boundary layer winds in the south half
of central Oregon marine zones as early as 09Z. In addition, will
need to monitor the start time for gale conditions. 18Z GFS
brings gale force wind gusts to southern waters as quickly as 18Z
Wednesday and 12Z ECMWF and GEM also hinted at the possibility
for an earlier start time, especially for southern waters.
Also worth mentioning, the 18Z GFS came in with a stronger
solution and a large area of storm force winds over our waters.
Still not ready to pull the trigger on any type of storm watch,
especially given the 12Z ECMWF and GEM both keep winds shy of
storms. However, both did show increasing BL winds from the 00Z
model run. Taking a look at the GFS ensembles, it appears the
operational run is on the stronger end of the spectrum with a
minimum pressure Thursday morning of 980mb. Most ensembles are in
the 981-982mb range which would lean towards a model solution
somewhere between the GFS and ECMWF. The NAM fits this mold,
therefore, went with NAM winds through the storm. Only
modification was to limit gusts below storms at this time until
confidence increases about that possibility.
Still considerable model uncertainty on Friday morning as the NAM
and GFS hang the surface low offshore Vancouver Island on
Thursday and then swing the surface low into the WA or OR coast
on Friday. Meanwhile the ECMWF and GEM swing a front through the
area, but send the surface low center into BC. If the NAM or GFS
verify, another period of gale force winds are likely Friday
morning. Hopefully model solutions will come into better
agreement with this feature in the next 24 hours.
Seas will come up Wednesday night with max seas expected Thursday
morning. Latest ENP came in a bit higher with seas over 20 feet,
but overall ENP guidance has been very consistent the last few
days hovering between 18 and 21 feet. Guidance has trended
towards shorter periods during the highest seas which further
alleviates high surf concerns. Ran coastal flood guidance tools
this afternoon, which also showed a slightly decreasing trend
for coastal flood risk, but not convinced we are completely out
of the woods considering the high flows expected from rivers and
the presence of astronomically high tides. /Bentley
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Cascades
in Lane County-Central Columbia River Gorge-Northern
Oregon Cascades-Upper Hood River Valley.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 PM PST Thursday
for Central Columbia River Gorge-Upper Hood River Valley.
Ice Storm Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for
Western Columbia River Gorge.
High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon for Central Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Central
Columbia River Gorge.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 PM PST Thursday
for Central Columbia River Gorge-South Washington Cascades.
Ice Storm Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for
Western Columbia River Gorge.
High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon for South Washington Coast.
PZ...Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon
for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR
out 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for winds from 9 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday
for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head
OR out 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for winds from 6 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday
for Coastal Waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out
60 nm.
&&
$$
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
735 PM MST Tue Feb 7 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM MST Tue Feb 7 2017
The 00Z run of the NAM is showing the potential for some wind
gusts near 70 mph coming at least part way down the eastern slopes
of the Pikes Peak area, the Wet mtns and the Sangre De Cristos,
late tonight and Wed morning. The most likely time-frame for this
to occur looks to be from around 09Z to around 15Z. On the other
hand cross-sections from the latest HRRR show winds that are not
as strong as the NAM, but does show a similar time-frame for the
strongest winds along the lower east slopes.
Have made minor changes to winds along the Rampart Range for later
tonight and early Wed. Also updated the fire wx grids for tonight
and Wed using the 00Z run of the NAM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM MST Tue Feb 7 2017
Strong jet stream is currently moving through the western U.S. with
area radars quite active along the Continental Divide with snow
spreading in. Visibilities have been poor at times over Monarch and
Wolf Creek Passes and even Leadville has been getting some off and
on moderate to heavy snowfall today. This is expected to continue
tonight into Wednesday with the heaviest snow falling through
tonight. The heaviest amounts will fall across the Sawatch and
Mosquito ranges where favorable orographics from NW flow will help
boost snowfall totals into the 10-20 inch range. Although less snow
is expected across the Eastern San Juans and La Garitas...with
amounts more in the 5-10 inch range...had to extend the advisories
through 12z Wed as latest model runs continued to show some moderate
accumulations through at least 09z.
For the southeast mountains and plains...this will mainly be a wind
event. Model cross-sections and soundings show quite a bit of
forward shear tonight with the jet moving in overhead...and not much
of a mountain top stable layer...so thinking mainly mountain peaks
will see high wind gusts of 75 mph or greater...though could see
some spotty gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range along the lower eastern
slopes. Have upgraded high wind watches to warnings for the higher
peaks above 11kft and included the Wet Mountains above 10000 feet
zone as well. As the trof axis swings through in the morning...the
southeast plains come under subsidence with mixing bringing strong
winds down to the surface. I-25 corridor and adjacent counties to
the east will be most under the gun for seeing critical fire weather
conditions. Leaned more heavily towards the drier GFS sfc dew
points given NAM12 high bias. Combined with strong downslope
flow...should see Red Flag conditions develop by afternoon. Hedged
the start time earlier due to the potential for some stronger
winds to surface in the morning. There is the potential for some
spotty high wind criteria to be met along the I-25 corridor
through Wednesday with gusts around 55 to 60 mph at times. This
will be due to pure mixing. Decided not to go out with a high wind
highlight since it looks marginal in coverage. Later shifts may
need to re- assess but with flow more northwesterly...this usually
isn`t as favorable direction for southern CO...aside from the Air
Force Academy area.
Snow will decrease across the central mountains during the
evening...and cold front will backdoor into the eastern most
counties Wed night. Meanwhile...continued northwesterly flow aloft
and lee troffing along the I-25 corridor will result in warm
overnight lows. Upper ridge axis translates in for Thursday with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s across the southeast plains.
Winds look lighter...though we may still be flirting with
critical fire weather conditions along the I-25 corridor Thursday
afternoon. Will hold off on any fire weather highlights for
now...given its more marginal potential.
Otherwise...looks like temperatures will come close to record highs
over the next couple days...but should stay just shy. Records are
Colorado Springs Feb 8: 70 in 1954, Feb 9: 71 in 1996.
Pueblo Feb 8: 76 in 1954, Feb 9: 78 in 1996.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM MST Tue Feb 7 2017
Main longer term meteorological concerns continue to be
temperatures, pops, gusty winds and elevated fire weather
concerns at times as well the potential for some locally heavy
snow at times by this weekend.
Latest computer simulations, forecast model soundings and PVA
analysis continue to suggest that transitory upper ridging in
combination with southeastern Colorado surface lee-side troughing
will allow generally dry and warm conditions in combination with
gusty to strong winds at times to be noted over the majority of
the forecast district from Thursday night into at least Friday
night.
Next Meteorological concern is the amount of impact that closed
upper low provides forecast district from later Friday into
Sunday night. 18Z/7th GFS model simulation suggests that closed
upper low initially located over southern California at 12Z
Saturday shifts into central Arizona by 12Z Sunday before dropping
into far southeastern Arizona by 12Z Monday and then to south of
El Paso, Texas by 18Z Tuesday. Also, healthy northerly to
northeasterly moist surface surge is still expected to move
across eastern sections of the forecast district Saturday night.
For sensible weather, expect that precipitation will develop over
for western sections of the forecast district from Friday evening
into Friday night with precipitation shield(including the
potential for heavy snow at times) then developing over the
majority of the forecast district by Saturday night with
precipiation then decreasing/ending across the forecast district
by later Sunday night/Monday.
It still appears that the highest potential for gusty winds
during the longer term should be noted from Thursday evening into
Sunday.
In addition, longer term above seasonal early to mid February
temperatures are also expected to continue over the majority of
the forecast district from Thursday evening into Saturday with
warmest temperatures/conditions expected on Friday. Temperatures
are then expected to run near to below seasonal averages from
Sunday into next Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 348 PM MST Tue Feb 7 2017
The KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites should continue to experience
VFR conditions during the next 24 hours in combination with gusty
westerly to northwesterly surface winds at times.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM MST Wednesday for COZ226>232.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Wednesday for COZ059.
High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Wednesday for COZ073-075-080-
082.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MST Wednesday for COZ058-060.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for COZ066-068.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1020 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
The first of two cold front will pass across the central
Appalachians overnight, triggering rain showers for the mid
Atlantic. A stronger cold front will pass across the area
Wednesday night, followed by a weaker weather system for the
weekend. A variety of weather and a large swing in temperatures
from unseasonably warm to very cold will accompany these weather
systems over the next few days.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1010 PM EST Tuesday...
Short range guidance still keeping the best probability of
rain before 06Z/1AM. HRRR and RAP guidance look reasonable with
current precipitation trends and have the highest coverage of
showers between Wilkesboro and Halifax and between Bluefield and
Lexington. Have adjusted forecast for these trends. Minor
changes were made to temperatures overnight.
Overall rainfall amounts will be low, generally a tenth of an
inch or less. The first cold front will pass across the area
during the early morning hours of Wednesday, but lacks any truly
cooler air. As such, overnight temperatures will remain quite
mild for early February, and should remain warmer than record
high minimum temperatures for February 8th. Whether or not these
records remain intact depends on the timing of when the much
colder air enters our area Wednesday evening.
Rainfall is expected to exit our area toward the coastal plain
by the beginning of the workday on Wednesday, with winds
shifting westerly in the wake of the first cold front. The
downslope westerly windflow will help low clouds to break up
from east to west such that skies are expected to become partly
cloudy by late morning east of the Blue Ridge, with breaks in
the cloud cover further west. Winds will gradually shift more
southerly by early afternoon as our second Arctic front
approaches, which will help afternoon temperatures to warm into
the low/mid 60s for the mountains and the upper 60s/low 70s for
the Piedmont. While still well above normal for early February,
Wednesday afternoon temperatures are not expected to break
records for the date.
Shower activity will begin to increase across the mountains
after sunset as the second cold front nears our area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...
A surface reflection tracking across the Tennessee Valley will
merge with another reflection over southern Virginia Wednesday
afternoon. While this merger is taking place, a strong cold
front will temporarily stall across the southern Ohio Valley. By
sunrise Thursday morning, the merging reflections become a
deepening wave of low pressure that will track northeast off the
Delmarva coast during the afternoon and become a Nor`easter off
the New England coast.
Light to moderate rain showers will be persistent from the
southern Appalachains Mountains to the panhandle of West
Virginia Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts of a quarter to half
(0.25-0.50) an inch are possible, especially if the front is
slower than advertised. As the wave moves north Thursday, so
will the heaviest rain. Light showers will accompany the frontal
passage east of the Blue Ridge with amounts up to a tenth
(0.10) of an inch over the foothills and a quarter (0.25) of an
inch in the piedmont. Northwest winds increase through the
morning, ending rain showers east as the front moves to the
coast. Rain showers will transition over to snow showers across
the mountains during the early morning hours. These mountain
snow showers, mainly along western slopes-flurries elsewhere,
will persist into Thursday night. Snowfall amounts of 1-4 inches
are possible in western Greenbrier to 1-2 inches along western
slopes of SW VA and NW NC. Liquid-snow ratios become higher
through the event and amounts on western slopes could be higher,
especially since the short wave axis dips into the Carolinas.
With our recent warm spell, accumulations on roadways may take
awhile as cold air enters the region slowly in the morning.
Again, snow accumulations will primarily be along western slopes
and higher elevation. Across the rest of the mountains,
scattered flurries and maybe a snow burst or two could coat the
ground with a dusting to half (Trace-0.5) an inch.
A second threat will be strong winds in wake of the cold front
Thursday into Thursday night. A tight pressure gradient over the
southern Appalachains between the low off the coast and high
pressure over the Mississippi Valley will bring windy and gusty
conditions to the area. The strongest pressure rises, cold air
advection and low level jet will peak Thursday evening. Wind
advisories are possible for counties along and near the Blue
Ridge.
High temperatures across the mountains will likely occur in the
morning, possibly before sunrise, with temperatures dropping
into the 20s by late afternoon. Temperatures east of the Blue
Ridge should peak before noon, then remain near steady in the
afternoon, then falling into the 30s during the evening hours.
Temperatures Friday morning will range from 5F across the
highest elevations to the mid teens in mountain valleys. Low 20s
are expected east of the Blue Ridge. Wind chill values in the
single digits are possible Friday morning. However, the winds
will not be as strong as Thursday. Temperatures will rebound
back towards normal Friday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...
Cold high pressure will make a brief appearance over the region
Friday, then moves off the southeast coast Friday night. A warm
front will spread high clouds over the region Saturday while
temperatures warm 10F-15F warmer than normal. Sunday will be
even warmer with afternoon temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.
These temperatures are around 20F warmer than normal. Some warm
air advection, jet-induced showers are possible across the
mountains Saturday and Sunday afternoon.
The next chance for rain areawide will come with a weak frontal
passage Monday. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal but
a little bit cooler than the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 PM EST Tuesday...
A low pressure system was over eastern Michigan with a cold
front extending into Arkansas. The front will reach the central
Appalachians by Wednesday morning. High confidence of scattered
to numerous showers ahead of the front tonight with the best
areal coverage over the mountains. Mostly likely time for MVFR
ceilings and visibilities will be with these showers and before
07Z/2AM. Wind will remain gusty from the southwest at higher
elevations. Lower confidence for how fast wind speeds will
diminish tonight, especially at KBLF. Bufkit suggests strongest
winds will be before 06Z/1AM. Ceilings east of the Blue Ridge
are expected to fall to MVFR for a few hours toward dawn before
rebounding again during late morning.
Expect spotty upslope showers to linger through Wednesday
evening, along with scattered MVFR/IFR intermixed with VFR
ceilings, mainly west of the Blue Ridge. Shower activity will
increase during Wednesday evening, after 00Z/7PM as another low
pressure system passes across the area, which will help push
the cold front through on Wednesday night.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Rain showers will change to snow showers across northern and
western areas of the forecast area overnight Wednesday as much
colder air moves into the region. Wind gusts of 30 to 50 knots
will be possible along and west of the Blue Ridge Thursday.
Upslope driven sub-VFR cigs along with snow showers and gusty
northwest winds likely to persist western mountains behind the
system into Thursday evening. Overall VFR returns elsewhere
Thursday and continues across the region under high pressure
Thursday night into Friday, although a weaker weather system may
bring sub-VFR conditions to western areas over the weekend.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...
Record High Minimum Temperatures for Feb 8th:
Location Record High Min Year Forecast
Bluefield WV 50 1965 43
Danville VA 49 1991 53
Lynchburg VA 48 1965 52
Roanoke VA 52 2009 52
Blacksburg VA 47 1965 46
Record High Temperatures for Feb 8th:
Location Record High Year Forecast
Bluefield WV 64 2001 61
Danville VA 73 2015 71
Lynchburg VA 75 1925 68
Roanoke VA 73 1925 67
Blacksburg VA 63 2015 62
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/NF
CLIMATE...NF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
949 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017
.UPDATE...
All severe watches and warnings are no longer in effect.
MCS has progressed eastward into central GA and E FL. Behind this
area, showers and storms (non-severe) have developed in an area
ahead of the mid level trough and cooler air aloft. The trend
overnight will be for this area to progress eastward and weaken
with time. Therefore, the precip forecast is trended in this
direction.
Fog is a distinct possibility overnight with the recent rains,
moist soils and residual low level moisture. Highest probability
will be across SE AL and SW GA but anywhere that experiences light
winds will have the possibility.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [646 PM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Summary: The threat for severe weather will increase this afternoon
through the evening hours. The best chance of seeing any severe
weather is across portions of the Florida panhandle and southeast
Alabama, although isolated severe weather is possible across the
entire area. The main threats are damaging wind gusts and large hail
with localized impacts to trees and power lines, although an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Analysis: This afternoon`s water vapor imagery shows the base of a
vigorous upper level shortwave is now moving through eastern
Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Ahead of it, the environment
has destabilized fairly significantly for this time of year with
SBCAPE values over 1500 j/kg extending well inland into southeast
Alabama and southern Georgia per the 18z SPC mesoanalysis. Shear
values are still fairly low in our area, but shear is higher to the
west across portions of southwest Alabama and southern Mississippi,
and this airmass is forecast to move eastward through the evening
hours. The RAP runs today have remain consistent in showing a
stronger low level jet than the NAM, GFS, or ECMWF, and looking at
the velocities from the KMOB radar, the RAP may be closer to the
truth. Thus, there remains a threat of severe storms across the
entire area through the evening hours. The greatest threat continues
to be across the western half of the area. SPC has extended the
slight risk area eastward a bit compared to this morning`s outlook,
which makes sense given the more impressive appearance to the system
than this morning. The CAM guidance continues to suggest a QLCS will
move into the area with some CAMs explicitly showing 50 knot gusts
or higher. Most of the activity should be out of the area by
midnight with the potential for areas of fog to develop in its wake
late tonight.
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Southwesterly flow will continue from Wednesday through Wednesday
night across our area as an upper level trough approaches our area
from the northwest. However, in the wake of the MCS that will
have moved through our area the previous night, a fairly stable
airmass will be in place over inland regions early Wednesday,
resulting in dry conditions during the morning and early afternoon.
Moisture is expected to gradually increase from south to north
during the afternoon and evening hours, with PWAT values
increasing to 1.0-1.5". A cold front will then move across our
area overnight, with best chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms from Tallahassee east through the FL Big Bend and
south central GA. Cooler and much drier air will move into our
area on Thursday, with clear skies and highs in the mid 60s to
lower 70s. Lows Thursday night will dip into the mid-upper 30s
inland, with 40s along the Gulf Coast.
.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The upper level trough mentioned in the short term discussion will
move to our east on Friday, and will be replaced by an upper ridge
over the eastern CONUS from the weekend through early next week.
With a broad area of high pressure at the surface, expect dry
conditions to prevail throughout this period. Seasonably cool
conditions on Friday (highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s) will
quickly give way to warmer than normal temperatures through the
weekend and early next week. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s
are expected from Saturday through Tuesday.
.AVIATION [Through 00Z Thursday]...
Line of strong to severe thunderstorms currently traversing the
middle part of the CWA in N FL and SW GA. Behind it, expansive
area of stratiform precipitation with embedded thunder. The whole
line is moving east at 40 knots. This line will be on top of
TLH/ABY now and VLD in the next hour. Expect rain to persist
through the evening hours. Overnight, degraded vsbys/cigs due to
recent rain and lingering moisture at all terminals. Expect IFR to
LIFR conds overnight. Conds improve by mid morning Wednesday.
.MARINE...
A line of thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, will move
through our marine zones this evening. Strong wind gusts and
frequent lightning will accompany the storms. Otherwise, expect
winds generally around 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 3 feet
through the next few days.
.FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday, much
drier air is expected on Thursday. Strong transport winds will lead
to high dispersions across much of the area. RH values will stay
above the threshold for red flag conditions.
.HYDROLOGY...
Some heavy rain is possible this evening with the thunderstorms,
but storms will likely be moving too quickly to pose a significant
flooding threat. No heavy rain is anticipated from Wednesday
through the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 59 77 62 70 37 / 90 20 30 0 0
Panama City 64 71 63 67 43 / 70 20 20 0 0
Dothan 59 75 56 64 36 / 80 20 20 0 0
Albany 59 75 58 65 35 / 100 20 30 0 0
Valdosta 58 76 61 70 37 / 100 20 30 10 0
Cross City 60 76 63 74 38 / 90 20 30 10 0
Apalachicola 62 71 63 70 44 / 80 20 20 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Scholl
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Lahr