Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/04/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
524 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 304 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Temperatures and winds will be the main concern for tonight and Saturday. South-southwesterly flow aloft increases late evening through the overnight hours, with a low level jet around 40 to 50 kt developing across much of the region late tonight. Southerly winds at the surface will become gusty as well, reaching 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Strongest winds will be focused in southwest Minnesota and parts of south central SD. Used a blend of the CONSMOS and HRRR wind guidance. Think that winds will generally remain below advisory criteria for most locations, but may briefly spike up at times. Not planning on issuing an advisory at this time. Mid to high clouds increase from the west this evening, which along with the strong southerly flow, will keep temperatures mild overnight. We will likely see temperatures bottom out this evening before slowly rising late tonight into Saturday morning. Cold front slowly tracks east through the region on Saturday, beginning in south central SD late morning. Gusty south-southwest winds persist ahead of the front and decent mixing will allow temperatures to warm near to just above freezing for much of the region. Kept highs on the warm side of guidance. Frontal passage should remain dry, with relatively dry lower levels remaining in place. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 304 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 Saturday night into Sunday morning will see a cool surface high pressure filter south through the Dakotas. This ridge of high pressure will settle into the James Valley late Saturday night and should provide some decent radiational cooling, assuming cloud cover remains in check. At this time there does not appear to be any major problems with clouds so will aim for single digits in central and northern parts of the James Valley to as mild as around 20 in parts of northwest IA where the wind should remain around 10 mph or so into Sunday morning. Sunday should be a fairly pleasant day without too much in the way of wind or cloud cover. Should see highs from the mid 20s along highway 14 to the mid 30s along the Missouri River. South to southeast flow will gradually increase Sunday night into Monday so lows and highs will be milder. Some question on Monday on just how well we can mix and whether or not we will try to get some stratus to develop as the surface to 925mb dew points looking to increase to around 32 degrees or so. If these higher dew points interact with a cold ground, especially if we can melt a little snow on Saturday and Sunday, we may see fog and stratus develop. So, will not go too warm on Monday because of this. Monday night into Tuesday will see a northern stream wave helping cold air settle south into the Dakotas while a southern stream jet moves into Nebraska and Kansas and tries to bring broad support for precipitation across the enhancing low and mid level boundary. Initially Monday night into early Tuesday the layer just above the surface to about 800mb remain a bit mild and dry so precipitation with some of the better lift may not happen. But by Tuesday afternoon and evening as cold air deepens so does the dendritic layer so the chances for snow increase during this time as some lift and saturation look likely. So, will raise pops a little from what was initialized and increase winds too as the models are in pretty good agreement on a strong pressure gradient. Wednesday into Friday will see this fast moving, progressive pattern continue with cold conditions on Wednesday, rebounding temperatures on Thursday and warmer on Friday. And hopefully this will be the start of a slightly more extended period of warmer conditions as we head into the next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 522 PM CST Fri Feb 3 2017 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Southerly winds will pick up after 03Z tonight, gusting to around 25 kts at times through Saturday afternoon. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...JM