Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/02/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
311 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Water-vapor imagery overlain with RAP model analysis shows a weak, dry upper trough moving into southern Coahuila at this time. Only local effect seems to be increased cloudiness along the coast. Surface dewpoints continue to rebound, which will combine with relatively light surface winds later tonight into early Thursday morning to allow areas of fog across much of Deep South TX. Still uncertain about the thickness of the fog, as MOS guidance showing a preference for low cloud ceilings vs. thick fog. Will keep inherited mention of areas of fog in the grids and let swing shift take a closer look. Models (especially NAM & GFS), as well as WPC, have changed their tune regarding the southward progression of a modest cold front currently analyzed across north-central TX. Previous solutions never really brought the boundary into the CWA, even by Friday. However, latest guidance brings it into the area later in the day on Thursday and into the evening, progressing from NW to SE. This will be more of a wind-shift, with winds veering to NE and not a lot of cooling. Basically left the ECMWF out of the mix for the wind-shift line/front, blending the rest of the guidance, as the ECM seems to be an outlier with lagging the front. For Thursday`s max temps, blended the inherited forecast with Superblend (again, less the ECMWF), which had the effect of lowering max temps 3-5F, still in the low-mid 80s for the mid-Lower RGV as FROPA will be later in the day. Forcing will not be strong with the front, per model-time height plots of omega, but isolated light showers are possible as the boundary sloshes southeastward and eventually loses definition. Some uncertainty on any lingering low-grade PoP`s for Thursday night, depending on position/strength of the aforementioned boundary. Will gradually taper to silent 10`s for now. .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): Fairly quiet long term period as upper level flow becomes zonal across the southern US this weekend and into early next week. The overall pattern begins to shift by the middle of next week as an upper trough moves across the middle of the country sending the associated cold front south across Texas. Biggest changes in forecast were on Friday due to a boundary pushing across the CWA on Thursday. Lowered temps on Friday and Friday night a few degrees, but confidence in temps is low and will greatly depend on location of boundary. Surface high pressure will bring south to southeasterly flow back across the CWA this weekend and into next week, increasing low level moisture and in turn cloud cover. Maintained a slight chance of pops Saturday as low level moisture increases, but confidence is not high. Otherwise, continued above normal temperatures will remain the big story, as highs push into the 80s each day. && .MARINE:(Now through Thursday night): Latest ob from Buoy 020 indicates SSE winds at around 12 knots with combined seas of 3 ft. Generally favorable winds and seas are expected through the short- term. Marine fog is possible on the Laguna Madre and near-shore waters late tonight into early Thursday morning. The approach of a modest cold front from the north will veer winds around to more NE by Thursday evening, but speeds expected remain 10-12 knots or below. Seas remain fairly steady-state at 2-3 ft. Friday through Monday: Northeast winds Friday will gradually shift to the southeast by Saturday as high pressure extends across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate south to southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas expected through the weekend and into Monday. Marine conditions will remain fair with no SCEC or SCA conditions expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 79 63 77 / 0 20 20 10 BROWNSVILLE 64 82 63 79 / 10 20 20 10 HARLINGEN 63 82 62 79 / 0 20 20 10 MCALLEN 63 84 63 81 / 0 20 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 61 83 62 81 / 0 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 75 65 72 / 0 20 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 53/58
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
441 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 ...Updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Surface high pressure continues to build into the central High Plains in response to an upper level disturbance currently tracking through the Great Lakes region. Mid level cloudiness was spreading southward into west central Kansas early this morning. Metar sites along and north of the Nebraska border showed that lower level stratus was also building south. This trend will continue through the morning hours. Mesoscale models like the HRRR and RAP13 continue to show some patchy fog developing over far west central Kansas for a few hours around and shortly after daybreak before diminishing so am still looking for some patchy fog to develop mainly along the Highways 96/50 corridor west of Scott City and Lakin. For the rest of today we should see low to mid level cloudiness lingering across the north with a little more sun farther south toward the Oklahoma border. With cold air advection continuing, high temperatures today will top out several degrees cooler than on Tuesday...ranging from the upper 30s around Hays to the mid 40s along the Oklahoma border. Surface winds become more easterly with time tonight, especially over central and western parts of the forecast area which could aid in the development of some patchy freezing fog and freezing drizzle generally west of a Wakeeney to Elkhart line. Have lowered overnight lows a few degrees from the previous forecast. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 Patchy freezing fog and drizzle should diminish Thursday morning but expect cloud cover to stick around. Low level warm advection persists into Saturday with some low level moisture moving up from the south and taking a swipe at south central Kansas. Model soundings support some freezing drizzle generally along and east of Highway 183 through the early morning hours on Saturday. This should be changing over to liquid and ending by mid to late morning as warm air continues to spread back north. The next chance for precipitation will be around next Tuesday afternoon and evening as the models show another wave moves out of the west and colder air gets pushed back southward into central and southwest Kansas. At this time, chances for measurable precipitation do not look all that great. After collaborating with surrounding offices, have lowered probabilities into the slight chance category and have them mainly confined to central Kansas. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 439 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 VFR conditions will prevail tonight with increased mid level clouds towards sunrise. The GCK terminal may be reduced to MVFR around sunrise but most of these conditions will be found across far western Kansas. Winds will generally be form the northeast tonight shifting to more of an eastern direction by late morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 19 32 19 36 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 20 31 18 36 / 10 10 0 0 EHA 21 33 21 40 / 10 10 0 0 LBL 21 33 20 39 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 20 31 17 35 / 0 0 0 0 P28 24 36 22 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gerard LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
456 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 134 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017 Main issue will be chance for light wintry precipitation tonight and Thursday morning, from northeast Colorado to Highway 25. Latest forecast soundings and model output suggest light snow will be the primary precipitation type. Low level saturation is deep, up to 5kft by 12z, but also cold, reaching -10 to -12C, where ice crystals will likely be introduced into the column. Soundings slightly warmer in western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, which might see the best potential for freezing precipitation. Latest HRRR supports a mix there, so will go ahead with the advisory in those locations after coordinating with surrounding offices. As for snow accumulations, generally expecting less than a half inch, with perhaps up to one inch in northern Yuma County. Thursday will be cloudy and cold with precipitation threat ending by 18z. High temperatures expected in the upper 20s to lower 30s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 136 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017 Extended term should be a relatively quiet period. Models were advertising patchy light freezing drizzle/fog for Thursday night into Friday morning on previous shifts. Chose to remove that from the forecast due to the forecasted high dewpoint depressions at the surface and the lack of moisture shown by the 12Z GFS model soundings. Future shifts will re-evaluate setup to see if it requires addition to the forecast again. Our CWA will remain downstream of an upper level ridge through the weekend. Next chance for precip comes Tuesday into Wednesday when an upper level trough should move through the region. Low confidence on exact track of the associated surface low pressure at this time, so I elected to put just a chance of rain/snow showers for our northern counties. Temperatures during the day Friday look to be a touch below normal with highs predominately in the 30s. Otherwise, temperatures look to be above normal through Tuesday with highs predominately in the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s, and lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Temperatures will cool back down with the aforementioned system && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 415 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017 At GLD, MVFR conditions due to low ceilings will transition to IFR after 06Z due to lowering ceilings with a chance of light mixed precipitation that would include light freezing drizzle and light snow mainly between 09Z and 15Z with intermittent LIFR around sunrise. Expect any precipitation to end by 17Z with a transition back up to MVFR after 19Z. At MCK, initial VFR conditions will transition to MVFR between 08Z-10Z due to lower ceilings. MVFR will persist through 17Z and transition to VFR again after 17Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ091-092. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...SME AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
614 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... 02/00Z Issuance...Light onshore flow tonight, increases to around 10 knots tomorrow. The onshore flow brings slightly increasing moisture to the region, with some potential for late night fog. Fog may become locally dense with visibilities dropping to LIFR categories in some isolated locations (especially near the coast). Scattered cumulus tomorrow, but no lower level ceilings expected. 12/DS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Will start the near term with a narrow surface high positioned from the eastern Gulf extending to the southwest Atlantic while a frontal boundary is draped from off the mid-Atlantic coast, westward to across the Red River Valley of Texas/Oklahoma. The orientation of these features is favorable for the formation of overnight fog in the presence of modified surface based moisture. Multitude of high resolution model guidance (RAP, HRRR and the NAM12) indicate an increased potential that late night fog could become locally dense with restrictions to visibility lowering to a half mile or less. Latest short range ensembles (SREF) probabilities show a large swath of 50%+ of this occurring along the southern half of local area. With that, a dense fog advisory may become required, but think next shift will be in the better position to consider placement and duration upon assessing/monitoring observational trends. Overnight lows generally mild, ranging from the lower to mid 50s on average. For Thursday, morning fog is likely to mix out/visibilities quickly improving after sunrise. Weak frontal boundary eases slowly southward, lining up across the heart of the forecast area by late in the day. A small chance of showers look to accompany the front. Daytime highs to remain some 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals, lifting up into the lower to mid 70s. /10 SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...A weak cold front is expected to extend east to west across South Alabama by Thursday evening and slowly sag southward across the Northern Gulf Thursday night. Spotty light rain shower activity will be possible Thursday night through Friday but accumulations if any should remain light. Winds will turn northerly in the wake of the front allowing cooler air to slowly filter in. Overnight lows north of Hwy 84 should range from the mid 40s to near 50 and low to mid 50s south. A broad upper level trough aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy through the day Friday and daytime highs are expected to climb into the 60s most areas with low 70s possible over the Florida Panhandle and South Central Alabama. Temperatures Friday and Saturday night will be considerably cooler than what we`ve experienced lately...ranging from the upper 30s in the interior to upper 40s closer to the coast. While daytime high temperatures Saturday only climb into the upper 50s to low 60s. /08 LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Initially, low amplitude pattern persists with a high zonal flow continuing aloft. However, surface temperatures begin to rebound Sunday and moisture increases as surface high pressure builds into the Southeastern States and a southerly wind flow develops. ECMWF and GFS both depict a shortwave trough moving through the flow aloft potentially triggering some scattered light rain shower activity during the day. Daytime highs climb into the mid 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows Sunday night generally bottom out in the low to mid 50s. Spectral models are consistent in beginning to amplify the upper level flow Monday in response to an upper level shortwave trough moving eastward across the Rockies. However, consistency breaks down on the strength and potential timing of the developing low pressure system by Tuesday. Have carried a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast from Tuesday through Wednesday to address the potential for an active convective period. Would like to see more run to run and model to model consistency before increasing probabilities. At present, temperatures are forecast to trend well above climatological norms Monday through Wednesday. /08 && MARINE...Potential of fog over bays and sounds tonight, possibly locally dense. High pressure breaks down Thursday with a weak frontal boundary sinking southward into the coastal waters by early Friday morning. The front makes complete passage by Friday evening. A small chance of showers accompany the front. Although the front brings a northerly flow in its wake, wind speeds appear to be generally light. Little change in seas. High pressure in place Saturday through Monday. /10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
534 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017 .UPDATE... FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Cold front/stationary boundary has crossed into the mid state, and for the most part, has a stronger dewpoint gradient compared to the temperature gradient. Currently, temps in the southern part of the mid state are in the mid 60s with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s, and near the KY border, temps are in the mid 50s with dewpoints around 30. Models still want to break out some precip this afternoon and into the overnight hours as the cold air progresses southward, and forces the warm moist air aloft. This will be helped by a subtle shortwave that will move through the upper flow this evening and overnight. It looks like precip will be mainly confined to southern areas where overnight lows are going to be in the mid to upper 30s, so for now left out mention of any frozen precip. Should precip creep a bit further north into the colder surface air, might see a few flakes mix in, however the moisture will be lacking in northern areas tonight. Thanks to the cold air sinking southward overnight, highs on Thursday will be right around seasonal normals in the mid to upper 40s. Models have backed off on the rain chances, and pushed them further south. This looks largely to be a result of the colder drier air moving further south as well, so mainly have rain chances Thursday morning and overnight/during the day Friday in the southern areas of the mid state. Again with the colder air further south, have in mention of mixed precip during the late evening Thursday into the early morning Friday. QPF output from the models is very low, so not expecting too much out of this event. Most of Saturday still looks to be dry, with precip chances moving in during the late afternoon/evening timeframe. Models are drying out the initial onset of precip right when it would be most likely to see some frozen precip chances. So have some rain/snow mix mentioned for areas close to the KY border Saturday evening, but with the approaching shortwave trough aloft, WAA looks to take effect during the overnight hours. This will warm up the surface and low levels enough to see rain be the primary precip type. It is still pretty close though, so if models trend just a little bit cooler and moisture arrives sooner, there may be a larger extent of mixed precip chances to mainly impact areas north of I-40 and the Plateau. For now, just have the rain snow mix mention in near the KY border before 06Z Sunday. Still have rain chances in during the day Sunday, with drier conditions Sunday night into Monday before the next trough arrives. The initial shortwave will bring rain chances back starting during the day Monday, and increasing overnight into Tuesday. During the overnight hours into Tuesday, WAA will again be on the increase, as well as instability. Have thunderstorms mentioned overnight Monday through the day Wednesday when models show instability over the mid state. Now, as for the larger trough moving in mid week, the GFS and ECMWF have moved further apart compared to their solutions 24 hours ago. They both still agree on the magnitude of the cold front and strength of the cold air moving in, however precip timing and intensity differ quite a bit. Stayed with a consensus blend for now as to not get too jumpy on each solution. So, models do agree that Tuesday will be wet, with some chances for thunderstorms, but the GFS is dry overnight into Wednesday and the ECMWF is still wet. The ECMWF also has the Midwest trough strengthen considerably, and dig south towards the Carolinas early on Wednesday. This will place the cold front through the mid state by 12Z Wednesday, with some wintry precip possible during the day Wednesday. The GFS has the front moving through 12 hours later, with a much slower moving broad trough, and very little winter precip behind the front. Precip chances aside, both models show much colder air moving into the mid state Wednesday through early Friday, so it looks like we will see a return to winter temperatures at that time. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Stationary front has drifted south of all three terminals. HRRR is showing some light shower activity over the evening hours which is most likely to affect CSV, but probabilities are low, so rain chances were addressed with VCSH. Cigs will stay VFR at BNA and CKV. CSV could see a period of cigs that bounce between MVFR and VFR. Winds will be out of the north for the taf period between 5 and 10 kts. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Barnwell AVIATION........Reagan
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Riverton WY
851 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017 .UPDATE...A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the Dubois area where local persistent snowbands continue to redevelop. Last several HRRR runs are placing 4 to 6 inches of additional snowfall over this area through noon Thursday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Imagery shows split flow across the western CONUS with the northern branch through the PAC NW...cutting WY diagonally and on into the Plains while the southern branch engulfs most of the area to the south and includes a large ridge with its axis from Baja to OR. SFC has Generally, high pressure resides under the northern branch while lower pressure is present under the southern branch. Light precip/snow is currently located across portions of western, northern and central WY. The WSW that was in effect across W/NW WY was cancelled earlier this morning as snowfall accumulation remained very light. The split flow pattern continues into the early hours of Friday morning before upper level ridging takes over across the west for a short period of time...with the ridge axis passing through western WY Friday afternoon, decreasing snowfall potential significantly. In the meantime, an upper level SW trof/jet streak will migrate across the northern half of WY from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...increasing mid/upper lvl lift and snowfall. A new Winter Storm Watch and assorted Advisories have been raised for much of western and northwestern WY for the period beginning 5AM Thursday and ending 11 PM Thursday. The Winter Storm WArning for the Cody Foothills continues and has been extended to end 11 PM Thursday with the other highlights. The rest of today`s/tonight`s Advisories end at 11 PM tonight. Another lull in the action begins Thursday night after the passage of the SW/jet streak and the ridge takes over again with snow potential winding down...for a while. The ridge axis should be located over central WY later Friday night with the western portion of the ridge flattening in response to stress from a strong upstream trof, allowing increased EPAC moisture to begin streaming back into western WY. Later Friday night and through much of the day Saturday, the western mountains of WY should see another burst of significant snowfall with another 10 to 20 inches possible over that time frame. More highlights expected. East of the Divide, snow will be much less likely than this time around...with only light snow expected even over the Bighorn mountains. Winds, however will become gusty out of the southwest once again on Saturday in response to this approaching Wx system. ATTM, it looks like only localized high winds...i.e. Fales Rock or Outer Drive. LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Wednesday Active medium range period expected through the period. Flat ridge axis just to the west to start this period shifts overhead Sunday before the real active period begins similar to the current ongoing situation. Winds increase, shortwaves start moving in from the west and shortwaves from the nrn stream eventually push a cold front swd east of the divide by Tuesday which holds into Wednesday. Snow will fall through much of the period out west with moderate to heavy quite possible Monday through Wednesday. Moderate to heavy snow may also fall behind the cold front east of the divide Tuesday and Wednesday similar to the ongoing event up north. Lots of wind in the forecast also with increasing wind in many areas over the weekend through Monday ahead of our Canadian cold front and maybe through Tuesday in the south ahead of the front. High winds are quite possible in the normal areas; Cody Foothills, wind corridor, I80 corridor much of this period with the the strongest winds in the south/sern areas looking to be Sunday night through early Tuesday ahead of the front. Central basins may be trapped Sunday before gradient increases enough to potentially mix them Monday ahead of the front. AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/ West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals Widespread MVFR/local IFR conditions with light snow, frequent mountain obscurations will continue vicinity and north of a KAFO- KPNA line through Thursday. In the southwest portion of the area including KRKS there will be lesser chances of snow through tonight and mainly in the far southwest corner of the state. A cold front will back into KRKS this evening with gusty ne winds and MVFR cigs. East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals Widespread MVFR/local IFR conditions with light snow, frequent mountain obscurations will continue vicinity and north of a KRIW/KLKND-KCPR line through Wednesday night if not Thursday behind a cold front. VFR conditions will local MVFR/IFR conditions mainly near the mountains will prevail south of this line. The cold front will push southwest this evening with low clouds and patchy late night fog and possibly a few flurries. Snow and low cigs will remain through Thursday across much of the area. FIRE WEATHER... Fire Danger low for all of WY through the next week. Below seasonal to seasonal temperatures, a good existing snow pack, and increasing chances for measurable snowfall over the next week will keep fire danger low. Heaviest snowfall of the period will be generally located west of the Divide and over the northern Foothills. Smoke dispersion poor to fair in the afternoons through Friday...poor over the weekend. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM MST Thursday for WYZ013>015-023>025. Winter Storm Watch from 5 AM MST Thursday through Thursday evening for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Thursday for WYZ016. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ004- 006-008-009. Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Thursday for WYZ003. && $$ UPDATE...AEM SHORT TERM...Braun LONG TERM...Skrbac AVIATION...Skrbac FIRE WEATHER...Braun