Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/02/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
311 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Water-vapor imagery
overlain with RAP model analysis shows a weak, dry upper trough
moving into southern Coahuila at this time. Only local effect seems
to be increased cloudiness along the coast.
Surface dewpoints continue to rebound, which will combine with
relatively light surface winds later tonight into early Thursday
morning to allow areas of fog across much of Deep South TX. Still
uncertain about the thickness of the fog, as MOS guidance showing a
preference for low cloud ceilings vs. thick fog. Will keep
inherited mention of areas of fog in the grids and let swing shift
take a closer look.
Models (especially NAM & GFS), as well as WPC, have changed their
tune regarding the southward progression of a modest cold front
currently analyzed across north-central TX. Previous solutions
never really brought the boundary into the CWA, even by Friday.
However, latest guidance brings it into the area later in the day on
Thursday and into the evening, progressing from NW to SE. This will
be more of a wind-shift, with winds veering to NE and not a lot of
cooling. Basically left the ECMWF out of the mix for the wind-shift
line/front, blending the rest of the guidance, as the ECM seems to
be an outlier with lagging the front. For Thursday`s max temps,
blended the inherited forecast with Superblend (again, less the
ECMWF), which had the effect of lowering max temps 3-5F, still in the
low-mid 80s for the mid-Lower RGV as FROPA will be later in the day.
Forcing will not be strong with the front, per model-time height
plots of omega, but isolated light showers are possible as the
boundary sloshes southeastward and eventually loses definition. Some
uncertainty on any lingering low-grade PoP`s for Thursday night,
depending on position/strength of the aforementioned boundary. Will
gradually taper to silent 10`s for now.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): Fairly quiet long term
period as upper level flow becomes zonal across the southern US
this weekend and into early next week. The overall pattern begins
to shift by the middle of next week as an upper trough moves
across the middle of the country sending the associated cold
front south across Texas.
Biggest changes in forecast were on Friday due to a boundary
pushing across the CWA on Thursday. Lowered temps on Friday and
Friday night a few degrees, but confidence in temps is low and
will greatly depend on location of boundary. Surface high
pressure will bring south to southeasterly flow back across the
CWA this weekend and into next week, increasing low level
moisture and in turn cloud cover. Maintained a slight chance of
pops Saturday as low level moisture increases, but confidence is
not high. Otherwise, continued above normal temperatures will
remain the big story, as highs push into the 80s each day.
&&
.MARINE:(Now through Thursday night): Latest ob from Buoy 020
indicates SSE winds at around 12 knots with combined seas of 3 ft.
Generally favorable winds and seas are expected through the short-
term. Marine fog is possible on the Laguna Madre and near-shore
waters late tonight into early Thursday morning. The approach of a
modest cold front from the north will veer winds around to more NE
by Thursday evening, but speeds expected remain 10-12 knots or
below. Seas remain fairly steady-state at 2-3 ft.
Friday through Monday: Northeast winds Friday will gradually shift
to the southeast by Saturday as high pressure extends across the
Gulf of Mexico. Moderate south to southeasterly winds and low to
moderate seas expected through the weekend and into Monday.
Marine conditions will remain fair with no SCEC or SCA conditions
expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 79 63 77 / 0 20 20 10
BROWNSVILLE 64 82 63 79 / 10 20 20 10
HARLINGEN 63 82 62 79 / 0 20 20 10
MCALLEN 63 84 63 81 / 0 20 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 61 83 62 81 / 0 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 75 65 72 / 0 20 20 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
53/58
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
441 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017
Surface high pressure continues to build into the central High
Plains in response to an upper level disturbance currently
tracking through the Great Lakes region. Mid level cloudiness
was spreading southward into west central Kansas early this
morning. Metar sites along and north of the Nebraska border showed
that lower level stratus was also building south. This trend will
continue through the morning hours. Mesoscale models like the
HRRR and RAP13 continue to show some patchy fog developing over
far west central Kansas for a few hours around and shortly after
daybreak before diminishing so am still looking for some patchy
fog to develop mainly along the Highways 96/50 corridor west of
Scott City and Lakin.
For the rest of today we should see low to mid level cloudiness
lingering across the north with a little more sun farther south
toward the Oklahoma border. With cold air advection continuing,
high temperatures today will top out several degrees cooler than
on Tuesday...ranging from the upper 30s around Hays to the mid 40s
along the Oklahoma border. Surface winds become more easterly with
time tonight, especially over central and western parts of the
forecast area which could aid in the development of some patchy
freezing fog and freezing drizzle generally west of a Wakeeney to
Elkhart line. Have lowered overnight lows a few degrees from the
previous forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CST Wed Feb 1 2017
Patchy freezing fog and drizzle should diminish Thursday morning
but expect cloud cover to stick around. Low level warm advection
persists into Saturday with some low level moisture moving up from
the south and taking a swipe at south central Kansas. Model
soundings support some freezing drizzle generally along and east
of Highway 183 through the early morning hours on Saturday. This
should be changing over to liquid and ending by mid to late
morning as warm air continues to spread back north.
The next chance for precipitation will be around next Tuesday
afternoon and evening as the models show another wave moves out of
the west and colder air gets pushed back southward into central
and southwest Kansas. At this time, chances for measurable
precipitation do not look all that great. After collaborating with
surrounding offices, have lowered probabilities into the slight
chance category and have them mainly confined to central Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 439 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017
VFR conditions will prevail tonight with increased mid level
clouds towards sunrise. The GCK terminal may be reduced to MVFR
around sunrise but most of these conditions will be found across
far western Kansas. Winds will generally be form the northeast
tonight shifting to more of an eastern direction by late morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 32 19 36 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 20 31 18 36 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 21 33 21 40 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 21 33 20 39 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 20 31 17 35 / 0 0 0 0
P28 24 36 22 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
456 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 134 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017
Main issue will be chance for light wintry precipitation tonight
and Thursday morning, from northeast Colorado to Highway 25.
Latest forecast soundings and model output suggest light snow
will be the primary precipitation type. Low level saturation is
deep, up to 5kft by 12z, but also cold, reaching -10 to -12C,
where ice crystals will likely be introduced into the column.
Soundings slightly warmer in western portions of Kit Carson and
Cheyenne counties in Colorado, which might see the best potential
for freezing precipitation. Latest HRRR supports a mix there, so
will go ahead with the advisory in those locations after
coordinating with surrounding offices. As for snow accumulations,
generally expecting less than a half inch, with perhaps up to one
inch in northern Yuma County.
Thursday will be cloudy and cold with precipitation threat ending
by 18z. High temperatures expected in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017
Extended term should be a relatively quiet period. Models were
advertising patchy light freezing drizzle/fog for Thursday night
into Friday morning on previous shifts. Chose to remove that from
the forecast due to the forecasted high dewpoint depressions at the
surface and the lack of moisture shown by the 12Z GFS model
soundings. Future shifts will re-evaluate setup to see if it
requires addition to the forecast again. Our CWA will remain
downstream of an upper level ridge through the weekend. Next chance
for precip comes Tuesday into Wednesday when an upper level trough
should move through the region. Low confidence on exact track of the
associated surface low pressure at this time, so I elected to put
just a chance of rain/snow showers for our northern counties.
Temperatures during the day Friday look to be a touch below normal
with highs predominately in the 30s. Otherwise, temperatures look to
be above normal through Tuesday with highs predominately in the mid
to upper 50s and lower 60s, and lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Temperatures will cool back down with the aforementioned system
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 415 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017
At GLD, MVFR conditions due to low ceilings will transition to IFR
after 06Z due to lowering ceilings with a chance of light mixed
precipitation that would include light freezing drizzle and light
snow mainly between 09Z and 15Z with intermittent LIFR around
sunrise. Expect any precipitation to end by 17Z with a transition
back up to MVFR after 19Z.
At MCK, initial VFR conditions will transition to MVFR between
08Z-10Z due to lower ceilings. MVFR will persist through 17Z and
transition to VFR again after 17Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
Thursday for COZ091-092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...LOCKHART
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
614 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
02/00Z Issuance...Light onshore flow tonight, increases to around 10
knots tomorrow. The onshore flow brings slightly increasing moisture
to the region, with some potential for late night fog. Fog may
become locally dense with visibilities dropping to LIFR categories in
some isolated locations (especially near the coast). Scattered
cumulus tomorrow, but no lower level ceilings expected. 12/DS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017/
NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Will start the near term with a
narrow surface high positioned from the eastern Gulf extending to
the southwest Atlantic while a frontal boundary is draped from off
the mid-Atlantic coast, westward to across the Red River Valley of
Texas/Oklahoma. The orientation of these features is favorable for
the formation of overnight fog in the presence of modified surface
based moisture. Multitude of high resolution model guidance (RAP,
HRRR and the NAM12) indicate an increased potential that late night
fog could become locally dense with restrictions to visibility
lowering to a half mile or less. Latest short range ensembles (SREF)
probabilities show a large swath of 50%+ of this occurring along the
southern half of local area. With that, a dense fog advisory may
become required, but think next shift will be in the better
position to consider placement and duration upon
assessing/monitoring observational trends. Overnight lows generally
mild, ranging from the lower to mid 50s on average. For Thursday,
morning fog is likely to mix out/visibilities quickly improving after
sunrise. Weak frontal boundary eases slowly southward, lining up
across the heart of the forecast area by late in the day. A small
chance of showers look to accompany the front. Daytime highs to
remain some 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals, lifting up into
the lower to mid 70s. /10
SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...A weak cold front
is expected to extend east to west across South Alabama by Thursday
evening and slowly sag southward across the Northern Gulf Thursday
night. Spotty light rain shower activity will be possible Thursday
night through Friday but accumulations if any should remain light.
Winds will turn northerly in the wake of the front allowing cooler
air to slowly filter in. Overnight lows north of Hwy 84 should range
from the mid 40s to near 50 and low to mid 50s south. A broad upper
level trough aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy through the day
Friday and daytime highs are expected to climb into the 60s most
areas with low 70s possible over the Florida Panhandle and South
Central Alabama. Temperatures Friday and Saturday night will be
considerably cooler than what we`ve experienced lately...ranging from
the upper 30s in the interior to upper 40s closer to the coast. While
daytime high temperatures Saturday only climb into the upper 50s to
low 60s. /08
LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Initially, low amplitude
pattern persists with a high zonal flow continuing aloft. However,
surface temperatures begin to rebound Sunday and moisture increases
as surface high pressure builds into the Southeastern States and a
southerly wind flow develops. ECMWF and GFS both depict a shortwave
trough moving through the flow aloft potentially triggering some
scattered light rain shower activity during the day. Daytime highs
climb into the mid 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows Sunday night
generally bottom out in the low to mid 50s. Spectral models are
consistent in beginning to amplify the upper level flow Monday in
response to an upper level shortwave trough moving eastward across
the Rockies. However, consistency breaks down on the strength and
potential timing of the developing low pressure system by Tuesday.
Have carried a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast from Tuesday
through Wednesday to address the potential for an active convective
period. Would like to see more run to run and model to model
consistency before increasing probabilities. At present,
temperatures are forecast to trend well above climatological norms
Monday through Wednesday. /08
&&
MARINE...Potential of fog over bays and sounds tonight, possibly
locally dense. High pressure breaks down Thursday with a weak
frontal boundary sinking southward into the coastal waters by early Friday
morning. The front makes complete passage by Friday evening. A small
chance of showers accompany the front. Although the front brings a
northerly flow in its wake, wind speeds appear to be generally light.
Little change in seas. High pressure in place Saturday through
Monday. /10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
534 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2017
.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Cold front/stationary boundary has crossed into the mid state, and
for the most part, has a stronger dewpoint gradient compared to
the temperature gradient. Currently, temps in the southern part of
the mid state are in the mid 60s with dewpoints in the low to mid
50s, and near the KY border, temps are in the mid 50s with
dewpoints around 30. Models still want to break out some precip
this afternoon and into the overnight hours as the cold air
progresses southward, and forces the warm moist air aloft. This
will be helped by a subtle shortwave that will move through the
upper flow this evening and overnight. It looks like precip will
be mainly confined to southern areas where overnight lows are
going to be in the mid to upper 30s, so for now left out mention
of any frozen precip. Should precip creep a bit further north into
the colder surface air, might see a few flakes mix in, however the
moisture will be lacking in northern areas tonight.
Thanks to the cold air sinking southward overnight, highs on
Thursday will be right around seasonal normals in the mid to upper
40s. Models have backed off on the rain chances, and pushed them
further south. This looks largely to be a result of the colder
drier air moving further south as well, so mainly have rain
chances Thursday morning and overnight/during the day Friday in
the southern areas of the mid state. Again with the colder air
further south, have in mention of mixed precip during the late
evening Thursday into the early morning Friday. QPF output from
the models is very low, so not expecting too much out of this
event.
Most of Saturday still looks to be dry, with precip chances moving
in during the late afternoon/evening timeframe. Models are drying
out the initial onset of precip right when it would be most likely
to see some frozen precip chances. So have some rain/snow mix
mentioned for areas close to the KY border Saturday evening, but
with the approaching shortwave trough aloft, WAA looks to take
effect during the overnight hours. This will warm up the surface
and low levels enough to see rain be the primary precip type. It
is still pretty close though, so if models trend just a little bit
cooler and moisture arrives sooner, there may be a larger extent
of mixed precip chances to mainly impact areas north of I-40 and
the Plateau. For now, just have the rain snow mix mention in near
the KY border before 06Z Sunday.
Still have rain chances in during the day Sunday, with drier
conditions Sunday night into Monday before the next trough
arrives. The initial shortwave will bring rain chances back
starting during the day Monday, and increasing overnight into
Tuesday. During the overnight hours into Tuesday, WAA will again
be on the increase, as well as instability. Have thunderstorms
mentioned overnight Monday through the day Wednesday when models
show instability over the mid state.
Now, as for the larger trough moving in mid week, the GFS and
ECMWF have moved further apart compared to their solutions 24
hours ago. They both still agree on the magnitude of the cold
front and strength of the cold air moving in, however precip
timing and intensity differ quite a bit. Stayed with a consensus
blend for now as to not get too jumpy on each solution. So, models
do agree that Tuesday will be wet, with some chances for
thunderstorms, but the GFS is dry overnight into Wednesday and the
ECMWF is still wet. The ECMWF also has the Midwest trough
strengthen considerably, and dig south towards the Carolinas
early on Wednesday. This will place the cold front through the mid
state by 12Z Wednesday, with some wintry precip possible during
the day Wednesday. The GFS has the front moving through 12 hours
later, with a much slower moving broad trough, and very little
winter precip behind the front. Precip chances aside, both models
show much colder air moving into the mid state Wednesday through
early Friday, so it looks like we will see a return to winter
temperatures at that time.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Stationary front has drifted south of all three terminals. HRRR is
showing some light shower activity over the evening hours which
is most likely to affect CSV, but probabilities are low, so rain
chances were addressed with VCSH. Cigs will stay VFR at BNA and
CKV. CSV could see a period of cigs that bounce between MVFR and
VFR. Winds will be out of the north for the taf period between 5
and 10 kts.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Reagan
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Riverton WY
851 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017
.UPDATE...A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the Dubois area
where local persistent snowbands continue to redevelop. Last
several HRRR runs are placing 4 to 6 inches of additional
snowfall over this area through noon Thursday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM MST Wed Feb 1 2017/
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday
Imagery shows split flow across the western CONUS with the northern
branch through the PAC NW...cutting WY diagonally and on into the
Plains while the southern branch engulfs most of the area to
the south and includes a large ridge with its axis from Baja to OR.
SFC has Generally, high pressure resides under the northern branch
while lower pressure is present under the southern branch. Light
precip/snow is currently located across portions of western,
northern and central WY. The WSW that was in effect across W/NW WY
was cancelled earlier this morning as snowfall accumulation remained
very light.
The split flow pattern continues into the early hours of Friday
morning before upper level ridging takes over across the west for a
short period of time...with the ridge axis passing through western
WY Friday afternoon, decreasing snowfall potential significantly. In
the meantime, an upper level SW trof/jet streak will migrate across
the northern half of WY from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening...increasing mid/upper lvl lift and snowfall. A new Winter
Storm Watch and assorted Advisories have been raised for much of
western and northwestern WY for the period beginning 5AM Thursday
and ending 11 PM Thursday. The Winter Storm WArning for the Cody
Foothills continues and has been extended to end 11 PM Thursday with
the other highlights. The rest of today`s/tonight`s Advisories end
at 11 PM tonight. Another lull in the action begins Thursday night
after the passage of the SW/jet streak and the ridge takes over
again with snow potential winding down...for a while. The ridge axis
should be located over central WY later Friday night with the
western portion of the ridge flattening in response to stress from a
strong upstream trof, allowing increased EPAC moisture to begin
streaming back into western WY. Later Friday night and through much
of the day Saturday, the western mountains of WY should see another
burst of significant snowfall with another 10 to 20 inches possible
over that time frame. More highlights expected. East of the Divide,
snow will be much less likely than this time around...with only
light snow expected even over the Bighorn mountains. Winds, however
will become gusty out of the southwest once again on Saturday in
response to this approaching Wx system. ATTM, it looks like only
localized high winds...i.e. Fales Rock or Outer Drive.
LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Wednesday
Active medium range period expected through the period. Flat ridge
axis just to the west to start this period shifts overhead Sunday
before the real active period begins similar to the current ongoing
situation. Winds increase, shortwaves start moving in from the west
and shortwaves from the nrn stream eventually push a cold front swd
east of the divide by Tuesday which holds into Wednesday.
Snow will fall through much of the period out west with moderate to
heavy quite possible Monday through Wednesday. Moderate to heavy
snow may also fall behind the cold front east of the divide Tuesday
and Wednesday similar to the ongoing event up north. Lots of wind in
the forecast also with increasing wind in many areas over the
weekend through Monday ahead of our Canadian cold front and maybe
through Tuesday in the south ahead of the front. High winds are
quite possible in the normal areas; Cody Foothills, wind corridor,
I80 corridor much of this period with the the strongest winds in the
south/sern areas looking to be Sunday night through early Tuesday
ahead of the front. Central basins may be trapped Sunday before
gradient increases enough to potentially mix them Monday ahead of
the front.
AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals
Widespread MVFR/local IFR conditions with light snow, frequent
mountain obscurations will continue vicinity and north of a KAFO-
KPNA line through Thursday. In the southwest portion of the area
including KRKS there will be lesser chances of snow through tonight
and mainly in the far southwest corner of the state. A cold front
will back into KRKS this evening with gusty ne winds and MVFR cigs.
East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals
Widespread MVFR/local IFR conditions with light snow, frequent
mountain obscurations will continue vicinity and north of a
KRIW/KLKND-KCPR line through Wednesday night if not Thursday behind
a cold front. VFR conditions will local MVFR/IFR conditions mainly
near the mountains will prevail south of this line. The cold front
will push southwest this evening with low clouds and patchy late
night fog and possibly a few flurries. Snow and low cigs will remain
through Thursday across much of the area.
FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Danger low for all of WY through the next week. Below seasonal
to seasonal temperatures, a good existing snow pack, and increasing
chances for measurable snowfall over the next week will keep fire
danger low. Heaviest snowfall of the period will be
generally located west of the Divide and over the northern Foothills.
Smoke dispersion poor to fair in the afternoons through
Friday...poor over the weekend.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM MST Thursday for
WYZ013>015-023>025.
Winter Storm Watch from 5 AM MST Thursday through Thursday
evening for WYZ001-002-012.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Thursday for WYZ016.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ004-
006-008-009.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Thursday for WYZ003.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AEM
SHORT TERM...Braun
LONG TERM...Skrbac
AVIATION...Skrbac
FIRE WEATHER...Braun