Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/26/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
944 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Another approaching low pressure system will bring some scattered light rain showers to valley areas, and a mix of light sleet, rain and possibly freezing rain for some higher elevations and northern areas tonight. A cold front will cross the region Thursday with some rain showers. Colder air will follow in the wake of the front, with some lake effect snow showers expected across portions of the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 930 PM, not much change to the forecast as showers continue to remain scattered and spreading across the region. Mesonet observations show mainly elevations above 1000 feet where temperatures are close to freezing. Dewpoints are increasing which is reducing the potential for freezing rain and more rain/snow showers. As low level moist and warm advection continues overnight, some fog may develop and mainly rain showers late tonight. Otherwise, cloudy conditions will prevail as mid level jet streak approaches and broad and increase isentropic lift continues. Prev Disc... A very weak low level ridge will translate across the region early this evening. This may allow for some very brief breaks in the clouds to develop, especially in valley areas, before mid level clouds associated with increasing isentropic lift ahead of the next system overspreads the area. Depending on where and how long any breaks develop, sfc temps could drop back into the lower 30s or even slightly lower, before rising once again later tonight as more clouds and a light south wind develop. An area of very light precipitation currently across NW PA was moving E/NE, in association with the aforementioned isentropic lift. Hi-Res models such as the HRRR and RAP13 suggest the possibility for some very light precipitation to develop between roughly 9 and 11 PM, initially across the NE Catskills and Mohawk Valley, the into the Capital Region, Lake George/Saratoga region and Berkshires. Temperatures across isolated portions of these areas could be close to freezing, and with warmer air moving in aloft, there could be spotty freezing rain in a few areas. Since overall coverage of any freezing rain is expected to be limited, have issued an SPS, but no headlines at this time. If radar trends suggest greater areal coverage of incoming precipitation, and also sfc obs indicate colder temps, then a short fused winter weather/freezing rain advisory may be needed for some of the aforementioned areas. Also, some sleet/wet snow could occur on the leading edge of the precipitation, mainly across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT. Localized accumulations of a coating to less than an inch could occur. The best chance for precipitation later tonight should be mainly across the mid Hudson Valley, and western Adirondacks, but again, fairly light and perhaps just sprinkles. Temperatures should fall into the lower/mid 30s this evening, with possibly some upper 20s across portions of the southern Adirondacks/southern VT, with temps then rising slightly after midnight as clouds and wind increase. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday, a band of light rain or showers will be possible across portions of the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and the Berkshires in the morning. Then, there could be a general lull in the precip, with even some breaks in the clouds possible, esp in valley areas from I-90 south and east. A cold front and upper level trough will then approach from the west in the afternoon. Isolated/scattered showers, mainly rain, will develop just ahead of this front, and also ahead of the upper level trough. There could be some graupel in taller showers, along with stronger wind gusts of 30-40 mph. In the wake of the front and trough, colder air will begin overspread the region on gusty west winds. Some additional spotty rain showers/sprinkles could occur in valley areas, with snow showers across higher elevations by late afternoon. Also, some lake effect snowbands may develop and extend into northern Herkimer CO by late afternoon with accumulations of 1-2 inches possible. Temps may spike into the lower/mid 40s in valley areas late Thursday morning, and perhaps to around or over 50 across portions of the mid Hudson Valley in the afternoon, before strong and deepening cold air advection allow temps to fall off late in the afternoon. Wind gusts behind the front could gust up to 30-40 mph at times late Thursday afternoon. Thursday night-Friday night, continued cold air advection and a tightening low level pressure gradient will allow for blustery conditions, although temps in valley areas still will not be very cold. Lake Effect snowbands will occasionally extend into Herkimer/western Hamilton Cos, although with several shortwave troughs passing through, they will likely oscillate north and south quite frequently, and may limit overall accumulations in any one particular area. At this time, no headlines, although it is quite possible that advisory level snowfall could occur in at least northern Herkimer CO during the overall duration of Thu nt-Fri nt, with localized amts of 4-6 inches or slightly higher possible over the 30+ hour period. Elsewhere, some filaments of Lake Effect bands may occasionally extend down portions of the Mohawk Valley/Schoharie CO and perhaps into the Capital Region, Berkshires and central Taconics, especially Thursday night and Friday as cold air aloft and a multi-lake connection works in tandem with low/mid level cyclonic flow. Localized accumulations of a coating, to 2 inches could occur where any of these snowbands/snow showers persist. Thu night lows will range from the lower/mid 20s across higher elevations, to lower 30s in valley. Highs Friday should range from the mid 20s across higher elevations, to mid/upper 30s in valley areas. Lows Friday night should mainly be in the 20s, with some teens possible across the southern Adirondacks. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A return to a more winter pattern across the northeast corridor of the CONUS as ridge attempts to build across western North America and trough evolves over the east. This will bring about periods of clouds and snow showers with increasing potential for lake effect snow developing downwind of Lake Ontario through the weekend. The most potent wave seen in the global model consensus arrives Sunday night into Monday timeframe. While the heart of the cold air is forecast to remain north of local area, enough instability should allow for more scattered snow showers and squalls downwind of Lake Ontario. Thereafter, a fast moving clipper is expected to approach the Great Lakes region which will temporarily allow for downstream ridging for late Monday into Monday night before we increase the chance for additional snow showers toward Tuesday. Temperatures through the long term will average near normal with the exception Sunday into Monday with below normal values expected. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR conditions will persist across the area this evening for KALB-KGFL-KPSF with VFR conditions at KPOU. Later tonight, MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to return as the next system approaches. Have gone with mostly VCSH in the TAFs due to the expected coverage of the showers but also included some mixed precip at the onset of the event. Showers and BR may linger through the end of the TAF period with persistent low level moisture. Westerly winds will shift to the southwest and south this evening ahead of the approaching system tonight. The winds will be brisk and gusty at KALB and KPSF much of the day with some gusts expected at KGFL and KPOU for a period on Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Scattered SHRA...SHSN. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33.0 Scattered SHSN. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy Slight Chance of SHSN. Saturday: Slight Chance of SHSN. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Slight Chance of SHSN. && .HYDROLOGY... The recent coastal storm brought widespread precipitation to the region over the past several days, but river and streams levels generally held steady or only rose very slowly due to much of the precipitation being freezing or frozen. River levels will generally hold steady over the next few days with little precipitation expected and temperatures generally near to above normal. Temperatures will turn colder for Friday into the weekend. There may be some lake effect snow showers and flurries, but this will have little immediate impact on rivers and streams. With colder temperatures returning, especially for the higher terrain, some ice may start to reform or strengthen this weekend on rivers, lakes and streams. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL NEAR TERM...KL/BGM SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...BGM/JVM HYDROLOGY...Frugis/KL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1050 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push across the region late tonight and early Thursday morning. Breezy and colder weather is then in store through the end of what has been a very mild month. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Radar shows most of the showers have dissipated as the HRRR advertised. Regional mosaic shows new showers over southern Ohio taking aim at SW Pa so the earlier idea of rain redeveloping over southern areas after midnight still looks good. The showers are forecast to move across mainly the southern half of the CWA between about 2 and 6 am. One last mild night in store ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows will exhibit only about a 10 deg spread from NW to SE (low- mid 30s north and lower 40s Southern valleys). Lows will average about 20 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Some concern surrounds our far SE zones for lingering showers (or even a few hour period of steady light rain) as a weak wave of low pressure ripples quickly NE along the cold frontal boundary. Elsewhere, a transition to fairly steady-state, windy and colder conditions will occur in the wake of the cold front with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies dominating the weather for the rest of the short term, and through most of the long term period as well. Thickening lake effect/orographically enhanced clouds and numerous snow showers will begin to fly during the mid to late morning hours Thursday across the Western Mtns, with sprinkle or isolated rain showers changing to flurries and scattered snow later in the afternoon. The snow showers will continue across the west thur night, but taper off in number heading SE off the Allegheny Plateau. The real cool-down across the Central Ridge and valley region will wait until the passage of a secondary cold front Thursday afternoon and evening. High temps in all areas will be 8-10F above normal. The gusty westerly wind (30-35 kts at times) Thursday into Friday) will lead to rather strong llvl cold advection and greatly flatten to nearly negate the normal diurnal temp rise across the western mtns. High temps elsewhere will be reached during the late morning then slowly fall in the afternoon. Expect some minor snow accumulations before the end of the day in the NW. It might be too warm over much of the rest of the area for any snow to stick - esp SE of KAOO-UNV-KIPT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A stretch of seasonably colder weather will return to Central Pennsylvania Friday through the weekend, as the upper-air pattern shifts from a trough in the Western U.S. to one in the Great Lakes and Northeast. This pattern will be conducive for lake-effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes into the Northwest Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands, with the hardest-hit snowbelt/high terrain areas likely picking up 6+ inches by Sunday. The long duration of the event makes it difficult to focus on a window of opportunity for potential lake-effect headlines, and have decided to hold off in coordination with WFO CLE. The highest risk for heavy LES appears to be in southwest NY in BUF CWA where LES warnings are in effect. We will continue to highlight the LES accumulation in the HWO. Clipper system embedded in the cyclonic flow may expand snow accumulation to the east of the Allegheny Mountains Sun-Mon. Global model and ensemble consensus keeps a mean trough in the Eastern U.S. next week which should favor continuation of typical late- January/early February cold. No major winter storms on the horizon. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A ridge of high pressure slides east of the area overnight, followed quickly by thickening and lower clouds with widespread MVFR (valley) to IFR (mtns) developing in rain showers along and ahead of a cold front. Expect a 4-7 hour period of LLWS early tonight thanks to a fairly strong (35-45 kt) low-level jet ahead of the cold front. Low cigs and frequent snow showers with greatly varying flying conditions will persist Thursday and Thursday night in the wake of the cold front across the Western Mtns with mainly MVFR cigs and VFR to MVFR visbys across the Central Ridge and Valley airfields. Winds at low levels and aloft shift more to the west-northwest Thursday into Friday with sfc gusts between 25 and 35 kts. Outlook... Fri-Mon...IFR to MVFR in snow showers west. VFR-ocnl MVFR east. && .EQUIPMENT... KCCX radar will remain down at least until mid day Thursday awaiting parts. KFIG observation will be offline for an extended period of time due to failed power feed to the DCP. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...Lambert LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru EQUIPMENT...La Corte
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
847 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 We will gradually sink back into winter across all of Southwest Michigan, as the rain switches over to snow overnight. Periods of light snow will continue through the rest of the work week, but accumulations are expected to remain low. Two to four inches can be expected for areas north of Highway 20 through Friday night, while two inches or less can be expected for areas to the south of Highway 20. High temperatures will be in the 30s for both Thursday and Friday. We will remain near normal temperatures this weekend and into early next week. More occasional snow will occur, with the best chances coming Sunday, and again Monday night and Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 848 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 I did a quick update to the forecast tonight into tomorrow morning using the latest time lagged HRRR / RAP model data which suggests slightly colder temperatures toward morning. That would mean slightly more snow but I am thinking even if this does happen it will only accumulate on grassy surfaces etc as soil temperatures have been warmed by the thaw over the past week or s. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 We will gradually change over from rain to snow from northwest to southeast overnight. Then periods of light snow continue through Friday night, but nothing heavy is expected. Surface low pressure was cutting through the state late this afternoon. As it passes to the east tonight it will drag the deformation zone pcpn over the region and also drag in cooler air. A transition to snow will occur, but the main surge of cooler air does not arrive until late evening and into the wee hours of Thursday morning. So early evening rain will still be commonplace, except for the Highway 10 region which will have snow, with other locations switching over between 04Z and 08Z. Since Highway 10 will be mostly snow through the night, have a 1-3 inch accum there and generally less than an inch elsewhere. Deformation snow will continue into Thursday morning, but it will gradually exit to the SE toward mid day. Temps will generally be in the mid 30s, so not expecting much if any impacts. And additional accums will be minimal, a half inch or less. As we move into the Thursday night through Friday night periods, lake effect enhancements come into play. There will also be a short wave coming through late Thursday night/early Friday morning. So expect light snow to continue. However heavy snow is not expected. This will not be arctic air moving in, as H8 temps only drop to around -11C, and even occasionally coming up to -8C, only creating marginal lake instability. So the lake enhancement is not expected to be all that strong, and should come in waves. Looks like a peak will come with the short wave Friday morning when some areas will have likely POPs. Otherwise will carry chance POPs in this time frame. Any additional accums in these three periods will generally be an inch or less, with localized two inches over the far SW corner of the state. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Made some changes to Superblend in the extended. Bumped up POPs significantly for Saturday and Sunday for lake effect snow and lowered temperatures a degree through the period. Snow showers should be extensive on Saturday into Sunday morning with the passage of trough/arctic front which features a Lake Superior connection and strong sfc convergence across the SW zones. We could see a persistent band forming along the I-94 corridor Saturday night into Sunday. Lake effect snow should decrease by Monday as shortwave ridging moves in ahead of a clipper and arctic front that arrives Tuesday night. Any synoptic snows will be fairly light as the sfc low passes to the north, with briefly milder temperatures late Tuesday. West flow lake effect snow showers expected on Wednesday as arctic air returns. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 639 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 IFR conditions in rain/drizzle and fog early tonight will turn to IFR to LIFR conditions in the 06z to 15z time frame as a band of snow moves west to east across the TAF sites. The back edge of that snow band will bring conditions to MVFR so western TAF sites could see that by 18z or so while eastern TAF sites may have to wait till 21z to 00z for that. Winds may get gusty Thursday during the day as the colder air comes in from the north. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 We will be going into a long duration period where conditions will be hazardous to small craft, starting tonight. It will likely last through at least Friday night. North northwest winds will kick up to 20-30 knots behind the system tonight. They will gradually go northwest Thursday, and west Thursday night and Friday. Looks like they diminish a bit by Friday night, but still around 20 knots. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 Relatively high river levels are continuing, including some minor out-of-bank flooding in the central Grand River basin. This looks to continue for at least the next 7 days at Ionia and Maple Rapids. Recent snowmelt in the Muskegon River basin is causing Evart and Croton to creep closer to bankfull. With rain and wet snow today, a little runoff may encourage those river points to approach bankfull the next couple days before they likely start to drop. Fortunately the temperature pattern is falling back to near normal, and much of the precipitation that falls in the next week will be snow. This will limit runoff into rivers and help them recover to more manageable levels. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...Ostuno AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...NJJ MARINE...JK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
923 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mild high pressure will remain over the region before a cold front crosses the forecast area early Thursday. At the same time, a broad upper level trough will develop over the eastern part of the country allowing seasonally colder temperatures to return on Friday and persist into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 915 PM: A closed upper circulation moving east across the Midwest this evening is extending a broad trough back through west TX. Deep layer southwesterly flow has set up ahead of these features across the Southeast. Deeper moisture just ahead of a cold front over the lower MS Valley is pushing northeast to the base of the southern Appalachians tonight. Earlier convection has diminished over TN, but a new linear feature is present over NE AL. SBCAPE trends from the RAP look quite limited as the moisture band crosses our CWFA. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out but showers look much more likely. Shallow upglide may permit some precip generation over the Piedmont in the wee hours of the morning regardless of whatever develops in the convergence zone. The low level jet is still expected to peak around 40 to 50 kt. Despite the reasonably good shear, the low level flow will not be very backed and SHERB values will be in the unimpressive 0.6 to 0.7 range overnight. Despite the lack of significant convective wind gusts, gradient winds may gust at times overnight. PoPs will end quickly from the west through Thursday morning, but then west or west-northwest upslope flow will develop into the western NC mountains. The should be just tight enough during the post-frontal cold advection push to send gusts to near/above Wind Advisory levels in the northern NC mountains. Following collaboration with WFO RNK, will post a daytime wind advisory for the northern three zones tomorrow. Snow levels will fall quickly across the western mountains through the later part of the day Thursday, with light accumulations getting started at the higher elevations. Temperatures will follow a non-diurnal trend with the fropa, but with some midday bounce east of the mountains in downsloping flow. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Wednesday: Initially a fast H5 flow aloft (nearly zonal) will start this part of the forecast cycle. Heights will be falling through the period, and the flow aloft gradually becoming more cyclonic. Meanwhile, from the surface to H85 - the flow will quickly turn cyclonic and cold advection will commence. Outside of the North Carolina (NC) mountains cold air cumulus should be the rule, although downsloping may even cut that back! However in the NC mountains, upslope snow showers should be ongoing or starting. The trajectories do not appear ideal, but over this period of the forecast there will probably be two enhanced periods. These two episodic periods look to be Thursday night, and again Friday night. In between these periods, snow showers will still be around the NC mountains, but perhaps not as concentrated. We kept POPS in the upper chance range, with the the highest numbers in our northern mountains. Our accumulations are slightly above the previous package and very close to WPC. At this juncture we did not use the deterministic GFS or NAM. The GEFS plume data has come in line with SREF plume information, therefore we followed such - again while blending WPC data. We will continue to monitor. The roller coaster ride with temperatures continues, with a downward trend, as suggest by all thermal pattern data. There appears to be a nice clustering in the temperature profile, and we followed the blended suite of guide into Saturday for the specifics. The winds should also be fresh, at least through part of period, with some single digit wind chill in the mountains Friday night. This is certainly a sharp change from our recent warm spell. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Wednesday: The extended begins Saturday night with continued mean troughing aloft over the eastern third of the country, with a tight northwest to westerly flow gradient aloft around the base of the trough. As we start the period, the strongest shortwave in the series will dive down the upstream side of the trough. The GFS is a bit of an outlier in that it has a little bowling ball of a shortwave across the Mid-South ahead of the primary feature over the Upper Mississippi Valley (which is depicted on both operational GFS and ECWMF). The Mid-South feature gets absorbed by the more significant shortwave and the result is that on the GFS this ends up a much stronger and wetter system. For sensible weather impacts, an enhancement in the NWFS from the short term can be expected as the Upper Mississippi shortwave dives toward the southern and central Appalachians, but if the GFS ends up right (or at least righER) some of this snow could break containment and make it across the Piedmont (well, actually since this would be Sunday afternoon into the evening, it would just be rain). For now have kept pops lined up more with the mountains and foothills, with a slight increase in highest pops over the mountains. Would not be surprised to see a few inches of accumulation out of this event but with current data still below advisory criteria. Winds will be another issue to monitor with the tight gradient. Behind the shortwave, CAA will compete with downsloping NW flow on Monday, but the flow aloft will gradually decrease in amplitude as we push toward the middle of the week and we should see an increase in afternoon high temperatures, finally getting back to above seasonal normal levels. Another round of troughiness develops across the Great Lakes toward the very end of the period and again the GFS is wetter than the ECMWF, with a stronger front pushing down as well. For now, have left the forecast dry into mid-week. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and Elsewhere: The overall expectations remain the same as during the previous cycle. Clouds lower over the next few hrs as prefrontal moisture band moves in from the west; deep southwesterly flow will precede this line, with some low-end gusts continuing at the sfc. Based on hi-res guidance, a narrow mildly convective line will cross the Appalachians in the early morning hours, with MVFR clouds and some showers developing out ahead of it in the ensuing moist upglide. Expect a period of MVFR vsby during showers. Some sites may briefly see IFR cigs, but more likely MVFR will prevail. Winds shift to NW in the morning and remain gusty thru the day as colder air pushes back into the region. Outlook: A colder airmass and NW flow moisture is expected to setup through the weekend. Chances for restrictions are low at all sites aside from at KAVL as stratus/fog could develop in the mtn valleys. Confidence Table... 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z KCLT High 100% High 82% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 98% High 80% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 97% Med 69% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% Med 79% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 97% High 83% High 100% High 100% KAND High 95% High 84% High 100% High 100% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for NCZ033-049- 050. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPT NEAR TERM...HG/Wimberley SHORT TERM...TS LONG TERM...TDP AVIATION...Wimberley
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 257 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 Stiff northwesterly flow behind our departing low pressure system brought continued CAA to the region today with highs struggling to reach the mid to upper 30s. Light snow showers over southeastern Nebraska have been eroding as they approach the Kansas border owing to lower RH values across the area. This trend is expected to continue through the rest of the afternoon and evening and have removed flurry wording from the forecast. The surface pressure pattern will change very little through tonight and tomorrow with only a gradual relaxation of the pressure gradient. Lowered min temps for tonight into the upper teens NW to mid 20s SE given the current readings in the 20s upstream in Nebraska. The lack of strong radiational cooling tonight (given the persistent stratus deck), coupled with continued differential CAA, could result in near adiabatic lapse rates in the BL up to 900 mb through a large portion of the night as hinted by both the NAM and RAP bufr soundings. This may result in continued gusty winds through the overnight hours and have trended winds slightly higher to account for this possibility. Highs for tomorrow will be very similar to today with skies gradually clearing. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 257 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 By tomorrow night the area will be under the influence of northwest flow aloft, which will keep temperatures near normal. Over the weekend several shortwaves will keep the main trough over the eastern US. Each wave will reinforce the air mass in place as the area gets clipped by the cooler temperatures over the Great Lakes. Each wave may also bring a chance for precipitation in far northeast KS, but moisture especially in the low levels will be a limiting factor. Therefore the bulk of the precipitation should stay northeast of the area. Next week the upper level ridge over the west coast will begin to break down. This will allow the temperatures to moderate slightly, but also allow weak fast moving waves to track over the northern plains and upper Midwest that will send cold fronts into the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2017 MVFR to start the forecast as low clouds continue to advect in from the northwest. Back edge of this deck is MVFR but will take a few hours to propagate to the east. Kept winds gusty through the night, may need another group for tomorrow afternoon but winds in the mixed layer are generally 20kts or less. Clouds start to break up but will likely be on the high end of scattered for the day. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Skow LONG TERM...Sanders AVIATION...67