Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/25/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1014 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast toward the Gulf of Maine
overnight and then slowly track across the Canadian Maritimes
Wednesday. Weak low pressure will cross the state on Thursday.
Colder air returns Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1017 PM Update...
Decided to transition the Winter Storm Warning across the Downeast
region to Winter Weather Advisory. The Rain that is occurring
attm w/temps in the mid 30s to change back to a period of sleet
and freezing drizzle as temps fall back by early morning hrs. The
latest RAP model has been handling things quite well w/showing the
warm nose pushing up across eastern Maine into NE Aroostook
County. Temps in this region have risen into the lower 30s. Still
getting reports of Sleet mixed w/snow in NW Aroostook County but
precip changing to more sleet. Brought the freezing rain up into
the St. John Valley as the warm nose from 850-700mbs will make it
to the northern Maine border overnight. Winter Storm Warnings to
stay up across northern and central areas w/some additional sleet
and ice expected.
See marine section below.
Previous Discussion...
Rain wl slowly progress north thru 3am to a line fm Bangor to
Princeton. Mixed pcpn wl continue to the north thru daybreak bfr
tapering off as inverted trof lifts thru effectively ending pcpn.
Will continue with current headlines thru 18z tomorrow with
addn`l ice accums of arnd 0.25 inches in the Upper Penobscot Vly
with around 0.1 inches elsewhere except for the immediate coast.
Addn`l snow and sleet accums wl range fm about 3-6 inches thru
the day Mon acrs the North Woods with locales to the south and
east ranging fm1-3 inches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Wednesday night, an upper trough will cross and precipitation
will exit northeastern Aroostook County. Weak ridging will build
later in the evening through the night. Relatively mild air will
remain in place with lows in the mid to upper 20s for most of the
region...except the coast where lower 30s are forecast. On
Thursday, a shortwave will propagate eastward from the Great Lakes
region with a clipper system at the surface. This low seems likely
to redevelop near the coast later Thursday as some southern stream
moisture merges. This will cause a mix of rain and snow in the
forecast area...with rain more likely towards the coast. An inch
or so of snow could fall in the northern 2/3 of the forecast area.
The 12Z GEFS and ECMWF seemed to match well with our expectations.
This system will move out quickly in the evening. Progressively
colder air will advect into the region Thursday night into Friday.
Temperatures will not rise a lot from Thursday night`s lows on
Friday. Expect a breezy day with wind gusts over 25 mph at times
and a few flurries.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended models are in good agreement through most of the
long term period. A filling low over eastern Quebec with a trough
that extends southwest across the eastern Great Lakes, and a high
pressure ridge built into southern Maine will be the primary
weather features affecting the weather for Maine through most of
the extended period. From the start of the period through Sunday
afternoon scattered snow showers across northern and central Maine
as the trough pushes up against the ridge. Sunday afternoon
through Monday evening the low will move into the maritimes and
the trough will begin to fill. Scattered snow showers across
northern Maine. The trough will fill and the high pressure ridge
will dominate the weather Monday evening through Tuesday
afternoon. Tuesday evening the GFS and ECMWF differ on the
movement of the next low that will affect the area. The GFS shows
the low centered over the northern Great Lakes region, with a
front extending east into southern Quebec/western Maine, then
south through New Hampshire. The ECMWF has the low in southern
Quebec along the Maine border. The end of period the GFS has the
cold front through the area with the parent low in central Quebec.
The ECMWF has the cold front through Maine with the low over Gaspe
Peninsula.
Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models.
Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by
factor tool.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:VFR at FVE first couple of hours before dropping to IFR
in -SNPL . IFR remainder of terminals via vsby or cigs through
most of the nighttime hours in mixed pcpn. BGR likely to go over
to -RA around 10Z in the morning with BHB -RA or -DZ through end
of TAF valid time.
SHORT TERM: Terminals north of HUL could see some IFR cigs
Wednesday evening. Otherwise, the prevailing condition across the
area will be MVFR cigs. IFR vis in snow is a threat for terminals
GNR-MLT-HUL and northward on Thursday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 1015 PM Update...extended the Gale Warnings through
10Z Wed given the winds still cranking sustained 35 kts. RAP
Model showing winds to stay up a while longer overnight. SCA
remains for the Intra coastal zones for 25 kts. Seas still up 12
to 15 ft but expected to subside overnight as winds turn more to
the n.
SHORT TERM: An SCA will likely be in effect Wednesday evening and
should end later in the night. Another SCA should get underway
Thursday night and continue through Friday. A few gusts to 35 kts
are possible by later Thursday night.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for MEZ001>006-
010-011-031-032.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for
MEZ015>017.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ052.
Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
602 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017
Wraparound flow continues across the area with some snowshowers
continuing for the San Juans overnight. However, amounts will be
generally light so the warnings and advisories have been allowed
to expire. Some snow still being reported in the Cortez/Yellow
Jacket area. Models indicate this snow should come to an end
shortly. Remaining highlights still look good.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 204 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017
No changes to the current winter highlights as the snow should
pare away from NW to SE and lift out of the valleys overnight as
expected. Unstable conditions with cold advection and moderate
northwest flow will keep snow showers going over the northern
mountains and the Colorado central mountains near the Continental
Divide. As a weak shortwave trough passes east of the area early
this evening, precipitation should begin to clear out of the
valleys. Satellite imagery shows good clear working into eastern
UT and SW Colorado. This partial lull will last through Wednesday
morning then the HRRR is showing another weak trough moving
through the area Wednesday afternoon with a minor uptick in areal
coverage of snow showers.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017
The last of this series of cold troughs will drop through the area
Thursday, but this one will not bring as much moisture. It will
reinforce the cold air but at this times it looks like it should
produce sub-advisory level snow accumulations, mainly on NW facing
slopes.
Short and mid-range models continue to show this last trough
clearing the area to the south Thursday night with NE flow aloft
shifting to stiff northerly flow Friday morning. The new 12Z GFS
shows a fast-moving little disturbance that will clip the
mountains of the Continental Divide Friday night. Not too sure
this little feature will materialize. Much drier and cool
conditions will continue Saturday through Tuesday as a long wave
ridge amplifies over the West Coast blocking any moisture from
entering the Central Rockies. Northwest flow and mid level
moisture may increase Tuesday and a weak cold front drapes across
northern UT and CO.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 204 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017
The Colorado northern mountains and the central mountains near the
Continental Divide will remain obscured in snow showers through
tonight. A trough will clear the area this evening bringing
continued improving conditions in Eastern Utah and western CO
valleys. KASE, KVEL and KTEX will continue to see IFR conditions
through 07z tonight followed by slow improvement. ILS cigs and
occasional MVFR will affect the other TAF sites through the night.
Similar conditions are expected through Wednesday.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MST Wednesday for COZ012.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MST Wednesday for COZ004-013.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST Wednesday for COZ010.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1024 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
Rain showers will return around midnight tonight across Southern
Lower Michigan, but as the precipitation reaches Central Lower, it
will be a wet snow that will continue into Wednesday morning. Areas
north of a Whitehall to Mt. Pleasant line could pick up an inch or
two by mid Wednesday, before the snow switches over to a rain and
snow mix Wednesday afternoon.
As colder air arrives Wednesday night, all areas across Central and
Southern Lower will switch over to snow. However snowfall is
expected to rather light. Another two inches or less will occur
from Wednesday night through Thursday night across the region.
Periods of lake effect snows will begin to kick in late Thursday
night and last through Sunday.
After highs around 40 both Wednesday and Thursday, we will see
cooler days into the weekend and early next week, with upper 20s to
mid 30s more common.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
I lowered the pop for the rest of the night. Noting there is a
fair amount of dry air between the base of the mid clouds
(8000>9000 ft) and a shallow cloud layer between 1000 and 2000 ft.
It will make it hard for precipitation to reach the ground so I
lowered pops the rest of the night slightly. I used the RAP...HRRR
and NAM12 to come up with the pop grid.
UPDATE Issued at 732 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
I updated the zones and grinds tonight to show a greater chance
for snow farther south. It should not amount to much as surface
tempeatures will largely be at or above freezing. However the
latest RAP model sounding suggest that when the band of
precipitation over Northern Illinois reaches our area in a few
hours the freezing level will be below 10000 ft so that would
result in snow falling instead of rain. This band is narrow and
will not last long at any one location. Even so, we will have to
watch this to see how it plays out.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
Will not be issuing any headlines just yet. The window for steady
accumulating snow across Central Lower seems too small late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Lake effect snows begin to contribute
Thursday night.
Pcpn will be slow to develop tonight due to the lack of deep
moisture. This will mainly be true due to the surface ridge that
will be hanging on, while the surface storm center only moves to SE
IA by 12Z Wed. Expect we will see warm advection pcpn break out
between 06Z and 12Z over the NW CWA. This should be snow, but may
mix with rain at times.
Into Wed morning a burst of steadier snow may occur over the NW CWA,
roughly NW of a MKG-CAD line. This seems to be the best time frame
for accumulating snows of perhaps an inch or two. Some minor
impacts are possible, but with temps in the low to mid 30s, main
roads should largely be wet or slushy. Temps creep up into the mid
and upper 30s by afternoon when more rain will mix in with the snow.
Southern Lower will see all rain Wed.
Similar track of the surface low is expected, roughly from MKG to
Saginaw Bay Wed evening. But because this is about six hours
slowly, the transition to snow across Southern Lower looks a bit
delayed, mostly occurring after midnight. Another inch or two will
be possible across Central Lower, but accums will be minimal
elsewhere.
It will continue to snow lightly Thursday and Thursday night, with
upper troughing overhead. But a short wave will approach late
Thursday night. Its this feature that will usher in the colder air.
Cold enough to kick up the lake effect. So expecting an uptick to
the snow late Thursday night. Otherwise the Thursday/Thursday night
snows will generally be an inch or less.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
Made some changes to Superblend in the extended. Bumped up POPs
significantly for Friday through Sunday for lake effect snow and
lowered temperatures a degree or two.
West to northwest flow lake effect snow showers will be enhanced by
a couple shortwave troughs moving through. The first one comes
through Friday morning with inversion heights increasing to near 10
kft. Snow showers should decrease by Friday night then pick up again
on Saturday with the passage of another trough which features a Lake
Superior connection and strong sfc convergence across the SW zones.
We could see a persistent band forming along the I-94 corridor
Saturday night into Sunday.
Lake effect snow should decrease by Sunday night Monday as shortwave
ridging moves in ahead of a clipper and arctic front that arrives
late on Tuesday with synoptic snows being fairly light as the sfc
low passes well to the north. Southwest flow lake enhancement is
possible though.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 657 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
Currently all TAF sites are MVFR. I would think it would stay
that way till at least 06z. It`s possible the I-94 TAF sites may
go VFR for a time in the 06z to 12z time frame. Otherwise the
leading edge of the precipitation band ahead of the system that is
heading this way for Wednesday has a band of rain and snow well
ahead of it into eastern Iowa at 23z. This may bring some
rain/snow to the MKG/GRR taf sites in the 06z to 09z time frame
but it should lift out by 12z before coming back in as rain by
15-18z. The other TAF sites should stay dry into midday Wednesday
if not beyond that.
Most of the steady precipitation will be north of the track of
the surface low so there may well be very little precipitation
at any of our TAF sites until after 00z Thursday (when we get
into the lake enhanced phase of the system). In fact it may be
possible that the I-94 TAF sites may go VFR for a time tonight.
However by 15z or so, all sites should be IFR with low clouds,
drizzle and fog due to the warm moist air trying to advect into
the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
A slower than expected movement of the storm system for
Wednesday/Wednesday night will also delay the higher winds. So at
this point, it does not appear we will need a small craft advisory
until Wednesday night. However once the rougher conditions arrive,
they should linger through Thursday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1151 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
The area saw anywhere from no rain for the lakeshore counties, to
a third of an inch for some locales along the U.S.-127 corridor
last night through this morning. This is forecast to bring stable
river levels or even some minor rises in the next day or two.
Additional pcpn coming late tonight through Wed will bring between
0.10 to 0.50 inches, highest amounts to the NW. The highest
amounts will be locations that did not see much, so no significant
impacts on the rivers are expected. Also, with some/most of the
pcpn up north coming as snow, this will not run off into the
rivers.
Cooler air moving in later this week will limit run off also, as
pcpn will fall mostly as snow and little will melt.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Ostuno
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...JK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
521 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
This afternoon fairly intense low pressure was centered over North
Central KS. From the surface low a strong warm front curved sharply
to just north of KMHK then southeast to Southern MO. A strong cold
front curved just as sharply southwest to between KHUT & KPTT then
west through the OK Panhandle to along the NM/CO state line. Balmy
weather covered all of KICT Country with temperatures in the 60s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 521 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
Latest RAP showed a transient area of weak elevated instability
moving across central Kansas early this evening and radar showing
a few showers now just west of the forecast area. So a brief
shower of rain or snow mix is possible along/north of Hwy 50 this
evening, though very low probability and little more than a trace
of precip expected.
KED
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
The intense low pressure center will move northeast, reaching
Eastern IA early Wed morning then Lower MI Wed Evening. This would
enable the cold front to move southeast, reaching the lower MS
Valley Wed Evening. It obviously won`t be nearly as warm across
the KS Neighborhood the rest of the week. Although temperatures
will be very close to normal brisk northwest winds will send wind
chills into the teens in most areas Wed & Thu nights with much of
Central KS plunging into the single digits. The northwest winds
will possess a sufficient downslope component to enable highs to
reach the lower 40s each day.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
Next Weekend:
A warming trend is still scheduled to commence Sat as a rapidly
strengthening positively-tilted upper-deck trof surges southeast
toward the Great Plains to induce deep lower-deck troffing across
the Western Plains.
Mon-Tue:
A 2nd upper-deck wave that`ll surge southeast is scheduled to reach
the Dakotas Mon Night then cross the Upper MS Valley on Tue. This
2nd wave will push a weak cold front southeast across KS on Tue.
Moisture is lacking, so no more than a wind shift would signal the
front`s arrival/passage.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
MVFR stratus cigs within low level cold advection will affect the
central Kansas terminals this evening. Otherwise, gusty northwest
winds in the wake of a cold front and departing low pressure will
affect the entire area into Wednesday. Some weak elevated
instability may also result in widely scattered showers early
this evening across central Kansas, though coverage is expected to
be low enough to preclude mention for now.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 33 40 24 42 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 30 39 23 41 / 10 10 0 0
Newton 31 38 22 40 / 10 10 0 0
ElDorado 32 39 24 40 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 32 42 24 42 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 27 36 20 40 / 10 10 0 0
Great Bend 28 37 20 41 / 10 10 0 0
Salina 31 37 22 40 / 10 10 0 0
McPherson 30 38 22 40 / 10 10 0 0
Coffeyville 37 44 25 42 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 35 41 24 40 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 35 40 24 39 / 0 10 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 35 43 25 41 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KED
SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
535 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 535 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
Updated to include 00Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
Anticipated winter storm remains on track to affect a small
portion of southern Minnesota starting late this afternoon and
continuing into Wednesday. How far north the accumulating snowfall
progresses remains the forecast problem as these type of systems
have a very sharp cutoff from several inches of snow, to only a
few flurries or a light dusting on the northern edge.
The onset of the light snow has slowed considerably from
yesterdays model runs, but still close enough to hold onto the
timing of light snow developing along the Iowa/Minnesota border by
4-5 pm. Regional radar, satellite imagery and short term model
reflectivity simulation, does support light snow moving into
Fairmont, Blue Earth and Albert Lea by 4 to 5 pm. IR/Water Vapor
imagery does show a pronounced upper circulation south of Sioux
Falls, South Dakota which indicates the strong upper forcing
affecting northern Iowa. Surface observations/web cams across
northern Iowa support a small band of moderate to heavy snow
lifting north-northeast. Again, this band of snow will move into
far southern Minnesota before sunset, and expand to the north-
northeast across far southern Minnesota through midnight.
Several of the model reflectivity simulations have a fairly
strong band of snow moving across I-90 during the evening. This is
where snowfall rates will increase to 1 inch per hour after 6 pm.
This simulated stronger band of reflectivity does support the
current winter storm warning across far southern Minnesota where
locally 8 to 12 inches of snow is likely. The heaviest snow bands
will occur this evening as the strong upper level support moves
across this region. Further north, a general light snow event is
expected. The lighter snow further north is based on weaker
forcing and a shorter span of any higher snowfall rates.
Once the stronger forcing moves into Wisconsin late this evening,
a broader area of weak forcing will continue a light snowfall
through Wednesday afternoon, especially along a developing
deformation band on the northwest side of the upper low track. I
would not be surprised to see very little accumulation or just
flurries north of Benson to St. Cloud and Rush City. In the Twin
Cities metro area, Elk River may have a light dusting, where as
southern Dakota county from Lakeville to Hastings may receive 4 to
6 inches by Wednesday afternoon. Due to the precipitation and
cloud cover, very little change in the temperatures are expected
until late Wednesday afternoon as cold air advection increases.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
In general, the extended period will be quiet with no significant
snowfall accumulations, plenty of cloud cover, and high
temperatures closer to seasonable values (lows will still be running
around 10 degrees above normal though).
Thursday and Friday, we`ll be in NW cyclonic flow, Saturday we`ll
see a strong shortwave drop south through the area on the back side
of the eastern trough, with Mon/Tue featuring a vigorous fast
moving wave going across northern MN. Model agreement is high
through Friday, but Saturday, the GFS is stronger and farther west
with that wave, and the system for next week is stronger/farther
south with the GFS and weaker/farther north with the ECMWF.
In terms of any changes made to the blended forecast we initialize
with, we made very few, with the only one of significance being to
increase sky cover as we look to be in a very cloudy regime the next
week.
For Saturday, though not anticipating much in the way of measurable
snow, it does look like it could be one of those days with numerous
light snow showers. GFS soundings show a deep (nearly 800 mb) and
well mixed boundary layer developing, with the top of the boundary
layer getting into the DGZ. This is the type of pattern that gives
you on and off snow showers as horizontal convective rolls become
established. We have a "quiet" forecast at the moment, but we may
need to beef up pop/light snow mention in the coming days.
For the system next week, the ECMWF keeps the precip north of us,
and instead puts us in a strong warm sector, with highs in western
MN progged to get into the 40s on Monday. The GFS brings precip down
to about I-94 and in turn is not as warm as the ECMWF. The GEFS
shows plenty of spread with this system as well, so stuck with
blended guidance for Mon/Tues, which is cooler than the ECMWF with
chances for snow dipping down to about I-94.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
Things appear to remain on track for the upcoming system. Should
see snow slowly overspread from the south/southwest this evening
into the overnight hours, with the lowest chance of it occurring
being at KAXN and KSTC. Delayed lower ceilings compared to earlier
forecast based on trends, but otherwise kept things fairly
similar.
KMSP...Main uncertainty remains timing of initial arrival of snow.
Delayed slightly given current trends and latest guidance from the
HRRR and HopWRF, but still looks like we`ll see a period of 1SM or
so overnight into Wednesday morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wednesday overnight...MVFR expected with a chance of snow.
Northwest wind 10 to 20 kt.
Thursday and Thursday night...MVFR expected with a chance of snow.
Northwest wind 10 to 20 kt decreasing to 5 to 15 kt.
Friday...MVFR possible. West wind 10 to 15 kt.
Friday night...MVFR expected with a chance of snow. Northwest wind
5 to 15 kt.
Saturday...MVFR possible with a chance of snow. Northwest wind 10
to 15 kt.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for WIZ024>028.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for MNZ064-065-
067-069-070-073.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Wednesday for MNZ074-082>085-
091>093.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for MNZ075>078.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
731 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
.UPDATE...
Allowed the Red Flag Warning expire. Cancelled the Wind Advisory
before 7 pm. Added a slight chance of rain and snow showers in far
northern Harper county this evening. Adjusted hourly weather grids
tonight to account for the cold front and resulting temperatures
and winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A dry cold front will continue to move through Oklahoma and north
Texas tonight.
Surface winds and temperatures have decreased while surface
humidity values have increased over the past few hours. Thus
allowed the fire weather and wind headlines end across the area.
The cold front was near a Cheyenne to Perry line as of 730 pm and
will continue to push south tonight. Latest HRRR runs have a
decent handle of this front, though may be a bit too slow with
the southward progression of this front. The front should be south
of the forecast area (including Henrietta Texas and Durant
Oklahoma) by 3 am tonight.
Latest radars indicated a few light returns over southwestern
Kansas which may skirt far northern Harper county. Based on RAP13
model soundings, this precipitation would be reaching the ground
as either light rain and/or light snow. Added 20% chance of this
precipitation in northern Harper county this evening.
Otherwise, quiet and cooler weather will continue tonight.
Forecast lows tonight appeared to be on track.
Products have been updated.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 32 47 25 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 29 48 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 34 51 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 25 44 22 46 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 30 45 25 45 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 40 52 30 50 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
17/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
529 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
Relatively quiet short-term period ahead. As of 2PM, a strong upper
level low was tracking over portions of Nebraska, producing a
frontogenesis band of snowfall along the NE/SD border. As this upper
level low tracks eastward, there is slight chance for rain/snow
along the KS/NE border through the overnight into Wednesday.
Forecast soundings from the RAP and HRRR suggest the potential for a
brief period of light freezing rain or drizzle. Given the limited
lift present, think the potential is very low and low clouds may be
the only result. Temperatures have been a bit tricky throughout the
day as cloud cover has reduced the amount of heating this morning.
However, as clouds have cleared cleared from southwest to northeast,
temperatures have rebounded quickly. Most areas along and south of I-
70 have reached at least the mid 50s. A strong pressure gradient
associated with a surface low across central KS is responsible for
the gusty winds across the forecast area. Later this evening and
overnight a cold front will traverse the area. As it does winds will
veer to the west, remain strong at 15-25 MPH as a decent pressure
gradient remains in place. Satellite analysis reveals widespread low-
level stratus behind the front. With cloudy skies and cold air
advection in place, much colder temperatures are expected tomorrow
with highs in mid to upper 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
Forecast concerns remain rather low for these periods. Northerly
upper flow remains in place into the weekend with shortwaves passing
through Wednesday night and around Friday. Seeing little in the way
of strong forcing or deep moisture for any precip to occur.
Temperatures still look to remain close to seasonal normals with
northwest winds at the surface dominating. Temperature specifics
remain the main challenge with only small wind direction changes
bring sensible changes in temps.
The pattern breaks down early next week as upper energy tops the
ridge off the West Coast and brings a more zonal character to the
flow. This should bring more backed winds and somewhat warmer temps
for Monday with a modified Pacific front progged to pass around
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 529 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017
There is good consensus among the models for MVFR CIGS to move in
behind the cold front this evening. Have slowed the timing of the
lower CIGS moving in based on current satellite trends. There is
also good agreement in strong downglide behind the front. So
chances for precip look to be pretty limited. Continued dry air
advection from the northwest on Wednesday should allow CIGS to
gradually lift through the day.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters