Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/25/17

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1014 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move northeast toward the Gulf of Maine overnight and then slowly track across the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday. Weak low pressure will cross the state on Thursday. Colder air returns Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1017 PM Update... Decided to transition the Winter Storm Warning across the Downeast region to Winter Weather Advisory. The Rain that is occurring attm w/temps in the mid 30s to change back to a period of sleet and freezing drizzle as temps fall back by early morning hrs. The latest RAP model has been handling things quite well w/showing the warm nose pushing up across eastern Maine into NE Aroostook County. Temps in this region have risen into the lower 30s. Still getting reports of Sleet mixed w/snow in NW Aroostook County but precip changing to more sleet. Brought the freezing rain up into the St. John Valley as the warm nose from 850-700mbs will make it to the northern Maine border overnight. Winter Storm Warnings to stay up across northern and central areas w/some additional sleet and ice expected. See marine section below. Previous Discussion... Rain wl slowly progress north thru 3am to a line fm Bangor to Princeton. Mixed pcpn wl continue to the north thru daybreak bfr tapering off as inverted trof lifts thru effectively ending pcpn. Will continue with current headlines thru 18z tomorrow with addn`l ice accums of arnd 0.25 inches in the Upper Penobscot Vly with around 0.1 inches elsewhere except for the immediate coast. Addn`l snow and sleet accums wl range fm about 3-6 inches thru the day Mon acrs the North Woods with locales to the south and east ranging fm1-3 inches. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... For Wednesday night, an upper trough will cross and precipitation will exit northeastern Aroostook County. Weak ridging will build later in the evening through the night. Relatively mild air will remain in place with lows in the mid to upper 20s for most of the region...except the coast where lower 30s are forecast. On Thursday, a shortwave will propagate eastward from the Great Lakes region with a clipper system at the surface. This low seems likely to redevelop near the coast later Thursday as some southern stream moisture merges. This will cause a mix of rain and snow in the forecast area...with rain more likely towards the coast. An inch or so of snow could fall in the northern 2/3 of the forecast area. The 12Z GEFS and ECMWF seemed to match well with our expectations. This system will move out quickly in the evening. Progressively colder air will advect into the region Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures will not rise a lot from Thursday night`s lows on Friday. Expect a breezy day with wind gusts over 25 mph at times and a few flurries. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended models are in good agreement through most of the long term period. A filling low over eastern Quebec with a trough that extends southwest across the eastern Great Lakes, and a high pressure ridge built into southern Maine will be the primary weather features affecting the weather for Maine through most of the extended period. From the start of the period through Sunday afternoon scattered snow showers across northern and central Maine as the trough pushes up against the ridge. Sunday afternoon through Monday evening the low will move into the maritimes and the trough will begin to fill. Scattered snow showers across northern Maine. The trough will fill and the high pressure ridge will dominate the weather Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday evening the GFS and ECMWF differ on the movement of the next low that will affect the area. The GFS shows the low centered over the northern Great Lakes region, with a front extending east into southern Quebec/western Maine, then south through New Hampshire. The ECMWF has the low in southern Quebec along the Maine border. The end of period the GFS has the cold front through the area with the parent low in central Quebec. The ECMWF has the cold front through Maine with the low over Gaspe Peninsula. Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM:VFR at FVE first couple of hours before dropping to IFR in -SNPL . IFR remainder of terminals via vsby or cigs through most of the nighttime hours in mixed pcpn. BGR likely to go over to -RA around 10Z in the morning with BHB -RA or -DZ through end of TAF valid time. SHORT TERM: Terminals north of HUL could see some IFR cigs Wednesday evening. Otherwise, the prevailing condition across the area will be MVFR cigs. IFR vis in snow is a threat for terminals GNR-MLT-HUL and northward on Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 1015 PM Update...extended the Gale Warnings through 10Z Wed given the winds still cranking sustained 35 kts. RAP Model showing winds to stay up a while longer overnight. SCA remains for the Intra coastal zones for 25 kts. Seas still up 12 to 15 ft but expected to subside overnight as winds turn more to the n. SHORT TERM: An SCA will likely be in effect Wednesday evening and should end later in the night. Another SCA should get underway Thursday night and continue through Friday. A few gusts to 35 kts are possible by later Thursday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for MEZ001>006- 010-011-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ015>017. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
602 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 600 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017 Wraparound flow continues across the area with some snowshowers continuing for the San Juans overnight. However, amounts will be generally light so the warnings and advisories have been allowed to expire. Some snow still being reported in the Cortez/Yellow Jacket area. Models indicate this snow should come to an end shortly. Remaining highlights still look good. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 204 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017 No changes to the current winter highlights as the snow should pare away from NW to SE and lift out of the valleys overnight as expected. Unstable conditions with cold advection and moderate northwest flow will keep snow showers going over the northern mountains and the Colorado central mountains near the Continental Divide. As a weak shortwave trough passes east of the area early this evening, precipitation should begin to clear out of the valleys. Satellite imagery shows good clear working into eastern UT and SW Colorado. This partial lull will last through Wednesday morning then the HRRR is showing another weak trough moving through the area Wednesday afternoon with a minor uptick in areal coverage of snow showers. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 204 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017 The last of this series of cold troughs will drop through the area Thursday, but this one will not bring as much moisture. It will reinforce the cold air but at this times it looks like it should produce sub-advisory level snow accumulations, mainly on NW facing slopes. Short and mid-range models continue to show this last trough clearing the area to the south Thursday night with NE flow aloft shifting to stiff northerly flow Friday morning. The new 12Z GFS shows a fast-moving little disturbance that will clip the mountains of the Continental Divide Friday night. Not too sure this little feature will materialize. Much drier and cool conditions will continue Saturday through Tuesday as a long wave ridge amplifies over the West Coast blocking any moisture from entering the Central Rockies. Northwest flow and mid level moisture may increase Tuesday and a weak cold front drapes across northern UT and CO. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 204 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017 The Colorado northern mountains and the central mountains near the Continental Divide will remain obscured in snow showers through tonight. A trough will clear the area this evening bringing continued improving conditions in Eastern Utah and western CO valleys. KASE, KVEL and KTEX will continue to see IFR conditions through 07z tonight followed by slow improvement. ILS cigs and occasional MVFR will affect the other TAF sites through the night. Similar conditions are expected through Wednesday. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MST Wednesday for COZ012. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MST Wednesday for COZ004-013. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST Wednesday for COZ010. UT...None. && $$ UPDATE...TGR SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...CC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1024 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 329 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Rain showers will return around midnight tonight across Southern Lower Michigan, but as the precipitation reaches Central Lower, it will be a wet snow that will continue into Wednesday morning. Areas north of a Whitehall to Mt. Pleasant line could pick up an inch or two by mid Wednesday, before the snow switches over to a rain and snow mix Wednesday afternoon. As colder air arrives Wednesday night, all areas across Central and Southern Lower will switch over to snow. However snowfall is expected to rather light. Another two inches or less will occur from Wednesday night through Thursday night across the region. Periods of lake effect snows will begin to kick in late Thursday night and last through Sunday. After highs around 40 both Wednesday and Thursday, we will see cooler days into the weekend and early next week, with upper 20s to mid 30s more common. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1024 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 I lowered the pop for the rest of the night. Noting there is a fair amount of dry air between the base of the mid clouds (8000>9000 ft) and a shallow cloud layer between 1000 and 2000 ft. It will make it hard for precipitation to reach the ground so I lowered pops the rest of the night slightly. I used the RAP...HRRR and NAM12 to come up with the pop grid. UPDATE Issued at 732 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 I updated the zones and grinds tonight to show a greater chance for snow farther south. It should not amount to much as surface tempeatures will largely be at or above freezing. However the latest RAP model sounding suggest that when the band of precipitation over Northern Illinois reaches our area in a few hours the freezing level will be below 10000 ft so that would result in snow falling instead of rain. This band is narrow and will not last long at any one location. Even so, we will have to watch this to see how it plays out. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 329 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Will not be issuing any headlines just yet. The window for steady accumulating snow across Central Lower seems too small late tonight into Wednesday morning. Lake effect snows begin to contribute Thursday night. Pcpn will be slow to develop tonight due to the lack of deep moisture. This will mainly be true due to the surface ridge that will be hanging on, while the surface storm center only moves to SE IA by 12Z Wed. Expect we will see warm advection pcpn break out between 06Z and 12Z over the NW CWA. This should be snow, but may mix with rain at times. Into Wed morning a burst of steadier snow may occur over the NW CWA, roughly NW of a MKG-CAD line. This seems to be the best time frame for accumulating snows of perhaps an inch or two. Some minor impacts are possible, but with temps in the low to mid 30s, main roads should largely be wet or slushy. Temps creep up into the mid and upper 30s by afternoon when more rain will mix in with the snow. Southern Lower will see all rain Wed. Similar track of the surface low is expected, roughly from MKG to Saginaw Bay Wed evening. But because this is about six hours slowly, the transition to snow across Southern Lower looks a bit delayed, mostly occurring after midnight. Another inch or two will be possible across Central Lower, but accums will be minimal elsewhere. It will continue to snow lightly Thursday and Thursday night, with upper troughing overhead. But a short wave will approach late Thursday night. Its this feature that will usher in the colder air. Cold enough to kick up the lake effect. So expecting an uptick to the snow late Thursday night. Otherwise the Thursday/Thursday night snows will generally be an inch or less. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 329 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Made some changes to Superblend in the extended. Bumped up POPs significantly for Friday through Sunday for lake effect snow and lowered temperatures a degree or two. West to northwest flow lake effect snow showers will be enhanced by a couple shortwave troughs moving through. The first one comes through Friday morning with inversion heights increasing to near 10 kft. Snow showers should decrease by Friday night then pick up again on Saturday with the passage of another trough which features a Lake Superior connection and strong sfc convergence across the SW zones. We could see a persistent band forming along the I-94 corridor Saturday night into Sunday. Lake effect snow should decrease by Sunday night Monday as shortwave ridging moves in ahead of a clipper and arctic front that arrives late on Tuesday with synoptic snows being fairly light as the sfc low passes well to the north. Southwest flow lake enhancement is possible though. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 657 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Currently all TAF sites are MVFR. I would think it would stay that way till at least 06z. It`s possible the I-94 TAF sites may go VFR for a time in the 06z to 12z time frame. Otherwise the leading edge of the precipitation band ahead of the system that is heading this way for Wednesday has a band of rain and snow well ahead of it into eastern Iowa at 23z. This may bring some rain/snow to the MKG/GRR taf sites in the 06z to 09z time frame but it should lift out by 12z before coming back in as rain by 15-18z. The other TAF sites should stay dry into midday Wednesday if not beyond that. Most of the steady precipitation will be north of the track of the surface low so there may well be very little precipitation at any of our TAF sites until after 00z Thursday (when we get into the lake enhanced phase of the system). In fact it may be possible that the I-94 TAF sites may go VFR for a time tonight. However by 15z or so, all sites should be IFR with low clouds, drizzle and fog due to the warm moist air trying to advect into the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 A slower than expected movement of the storm system for Wednesday/Wednesday night will also delay the higher winds. So at this point, it does not appear we will need a small craft advisory until Wednesday night. However once the rougher conditions arrive, they should linger through Thursday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1151 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 The area saw anywhere from no rain for the lakeshore counties, to a third of an inch for some locales along the U.S.-127 corridor last night through this morning. This is forecast to bring stable river levels or even some minor rises in the next day or two. Additional pcpn coming late tonight through Wed will bring between 0.10 to 0.50 inches, highest amounts to the NW. The highest amounts will be locations that did not see much, so no significant impacts on the rivers are expected. Also, with some/most of the pcpn up north coming as snow, this will not run off into the rivers. Cooler air moving in later this week will limit run off also, as pcpn will fall mostly as snow and little will melt. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...JK SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...Ostuno AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...NJJ MARINE...JK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
521 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 This afternoon fairly intense low pressure was centered over North Central KS. From the surface low a strong warm front curved sharply to just north of KMHK then southeast to Southern MO. A strong cold front curved just as sharply southwest to between KHUT & KPTT then west through the OK Panhandle to along the NM/CO state line. Balmy weather covered all of KICT Country with temperatures in the 60s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 521 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Latest RAP showed a transient area of weak elevated instability moving across central Kansas early this evening and radar showing a few showers now just west of the forecast area. So a brief shower of rain or snow mix is possible along/north of Hwy 50 this evening, though very low probability and little more than a trace of precip expected. KED && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night) Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 The intense low pressure center will move northeast, reaching Eastern IA early Wed morning then Lower MI Wed Evening. This would enable the cold front to move southeast, reaching the lower MS Valley Wed Evening. It obviously won`t be nearly as warm across the KS Neighborhood the rest of the week. Although temperatures will be very close to normal brisk northwest winds will send wind chills into the teens in most areas Wed & Thu nights with much of Central KS plunging into the single digits. The northwest winds will possess a sufficient downslope component to enable highs to reach the lower 40s each day. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Next Weekend: A warming trend is still scheduled to commence Sat as a rapidly strengthening positively-tilted upper-deck trof surges southeast toward the Great Plains to induce deep lower-deck troffing across the Western Plains. Mon-Tue: A 2nd upper-deck wave that`ll surge southeast is scheduled to reach the Dakotas Mon Night then cross the Upper MS Valley on Tue. This 2nd wave will push a weak cold front southeast across KS on Tue. Moisture is lacking, so no more than a wind shift would signal the front`s arrival/passage. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 521 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 MVFR stratus cigs within low level cold advection will affect the central Kansas terminals this evening. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds in the wake of a cold front and departing low pressure will affect the entire area into Wednesday. Some weak elevated instability may also result in widely scattered showers early this evening across central Kansas, though coverage is expected to be low enough to preclude mention for now. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 33 40 24 42 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 30 39 23 41 / 10 10 0 0 Newton 31 38 22 40 / 10 10 0 0 ElDorado 32 39 24 40 / 0 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 32 42 24 42 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 27 36 20 40 / 10 10 0 0 Great Bend 28 37 20 41 / 10 10 0 0 Salina 31 37 22 40 / 10 10 0 0 McPherson 30 38 22 40 / 10 10 0 0 Coffeyville 37 44 25 42 / 0 0 0 0 Chanute 35 41 24 40 / 0 0 0 0 Iola 35 40 24 39 / 0 10 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 35 43 25 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...KED SYNOPSIS...EPS SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...KED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
535 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 535 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Updated to include 00Z aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Anticipated winter storm remains on track to affect a small portion of southern Minnesota starting late this afternoon and continuing into Wednesday. How far north the accumulating snowfall progresses remains the forecast problem as these type of systems have a very sharp cutoff from several inches of snow, to only a few flurries or a light dusting on the northern edge. The onset of the light snow has slowed considerably from yesterdays model runs, but still close enough to hold onto the timing of light snow developing along the Iowa/Minnesota border by 4-5 pm. Regional radar, satellite imagery and short term model reflectivity simulation, does support light snow moving into Fairmont, Blue Earth and Albert Lea by 4 to 5 pm. IR/Water Vapor imagery does show a pronounced upper circulation south of Sioux Falls, South Dakota which indicates the strong upper forcing affecting northern Iowa. Surface observations/web cams across northern Iowa support a small band of moderate to heavy snow lifting north-northeast. Again, this band of snow will move into far southern Minnesota before sunset, and expand to the north- northeast across far southern Minnesota through midnight. Several of the model reflectivity simulations have a fairly strong band of snow moving across I-90 during the evening. This is where snowfall rates will increase to 1 inch per hour after 6 pm. This simulated stronger band of reflectivity does support the current winter storm warning across far southern Minnesota where locally 8 to 12 inches of snow is likely. The heaviest snow bands will occur this evening as the strong upper level support moves across this region. Further north, a general light snow event is expected. The lighter snow further north is based on weaker forcing and a shorter span of any higher snowfall rates. Once the stronger forcing moves into Wisconsin late this evening, a broader area of weak forcing will continue a light snowfall through Wednesday afternoon, especially along a developing deformation band on the northwest side of the upper low track. I would not be surprised to see very little accumulation or just flurries north of Benson to St. Cloud and Rush City. In the Twin Cities metro area, Elk River may have a light dusting, where as southern Dakota county from Lakeville to Hastings may receive 4 to 6 inches by Wednesday afternoon. Due to the precipitation and cloud cover, very little change in the temperatures are expected until late Wednesday afternoon as cold air advection increases. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 250 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 In general, the extended period will be quiet with no significant snowfall accumulations, plenty of cloud cover, and high temperatures closer to seasonable values (lows will still be running around 10 degrees above normal though). Thursday and Friday, we`ll be in NW cyclonic flow, Saturday we`ll see a strong shortwave drop south through the area on the back side of the eastern trough, with Mon/Tue featuring a vigorous fast moving wave going across northern MN. Model agreement is high through Friday, but Saturday, the GFS is stronger and farther west with that wave, and the system for next week is stronger/farther south with the GFS and weaker/farther north with the ECMWF. In terms of any changes made to the blended forecast we initialize with, we made very few, with the only one of significance being to increase sky cover as we look to be in a very cloudy regime the next week. For Saturday, though not anticipating much in the way of measurable snow, it does look like it could be one of those days with numerous light snow showers. GFS soundings show a deep (nearly 800 mb) and well mixed boundary layer developing, with the top of the boundary layer getting into the DGZ. This is the type of pattern that gives you on and off snow showers as horizontal convective rolls become established. We have a "quiet" forecast at the moment, but we may need to beef up pop/light snow mention in the coming days. For the system next week, the ECMWF keeps the precip north of us, and instead puts us in a strong warm sector, with highs in western MN progged to get into the 40s on Monday. The GFS brings precip down to about I-94 and in turn is not as warm as the ECMWF. The GEFS shows plenty of spread with this system as well, so stuck with blended guidance for Mon/Tues, which is cooler than the ECMWF with chances for snow dipping down to about I-94. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 535 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Things appear to remain on track for the upcoming system. Should see snow slowly overspread from the south/southwest this evening into the overnight hours, with the lowest chance of it occurring being at KAXN and KSTC. Delayed lower ceilings compared to earlier forecast based on trends, but otherwise kept things fairly similar. KMSP...Main uncertainty remains timing of initial arrival of snow. Delayed slightly given current trends and latest guidance from the HRRR and HopWRF, but still looks like we`ll see a period of 1SM or so overnight into Wednesday morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Wednesday overnight...MVFR expected with a chance of snow. Northwest wind 10 to 20 kt. Thursday and Thursday night...MVFR expected with a chance of snow. Northwest wind 10 to 20 kt decreasing to 5 to 15 kt. Friday...MVFR possible. West wind 10 to 15 kt. Friday night...MVFR expected with a chance of snow. Northwest wind 5 to 15 kt. Saturday...MVFR possible with a chance of snow. Northwest wind 10 to 15 kt. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for WIZ024>028. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for MNZ064-065- 067-069-070-073. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Wednesday for MNZ074-082>085- 091>093. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for MNZ075>078. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...MPG AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
731 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 .UPDATE... Allowed the Red Flag Warning expire. Cancelled the Wind Advisory before 7 pm. Added a slight chance of rain and snow showers in far northern Harper county this evening. Adjusted hourly weather grids tonight to account for the cold front and resulting temperatures and winds. && .DISCUSSION... A dry cold front will continue to move through Oklahoma and north Texas tonight. Surface winds and temperatures have decreased while surface humidity values have increased over the past few hours. Thus allowed the fire weather and wind headlines end across the area. The cold front was near a Cheyenne to Perry line as of 730 pm and will continue to push south tonight. Latest HRRR runs have a decent handle of this front, though may be a bit too slow with the southward progression of this front. The front should be south of the forecast area (including Henrietta Texas and Durant Oklahoma) by 3 am tonight. Latest radars indicated a few light returns over southwestern Kansas which may skirt far northern Harper county. Based on RAP13 model soundings, this precipitation would be reaching the ground as either light rain and/or light snow. Added 20% chance of this precipitation in northern Harper county this evening. Otherwise, quiet and cooler weather will continue tonight. Forecast lows tonight appeared to be on track. Products have been updated. MBS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 32 47 25 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 29 48 25 48 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 34 51 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 25 44 22 46 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 30 45 25 45 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 40 52 30 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 17/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
529 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Relatively quiet short-term period ahead. As of 2PM, a strong upper level low was tracking over portions of Nebraska, producing a frontogenesis band of snowfall along the NE/SD border. As this upper level low tracks eastward, there is slight chance for rain/snow along the KS/NE border through the overnight into Wednesday. Forecast soundings from the RAP and HRRR suggest the potential for a brief period of light freezing rain or drizzle. Given the limited lift present, think the potential is very low and low clouds may be the only result. Temperatures have been a bit tricky throughout the day as cloud cover has reduced the amount of heating this morning. However, as clouds have cleared cleared from southwest to northeast, temperatures have rebounded quickly. Most areas along and south of I- 70 have reached at least the mid 50s. A strong pressure gradient associated with a surface low across central KS is responsible for the gusty winds across the forecast area. Later this evening and overnight a cold front will traverse the area. As it does winds will veer to the west, remain strong at 15-25 MPH as a decent pressure gradient remains in place. Satellite analysis reveals widespread low- level stratus behind the front. With cloudy skies and cold air advection in place, much colder temperatures are expected tomorrow with highs in mid to upper 30s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 Forecast concerns remain rather low for these periods. Northerly upper flow remains in place into the weekend with shortwaves passing through Wednesday night and around Friday. Seeing little in the way of strong forcing or deep moisture for any precip to occur. Temperatures still look to remain close to seasonal normals with northwest winds at the surface dominating. Temperature specifics remain the main challenge with only small wind direction changes bring sensible changes in temps. The pattern breaks down early next week as upper energy tops the ridge off the West Coast and brings a more zonal character to the flow. This should bring more backed winds and somewhat warmer temps for Monday with a modified Pacific front progged to pass around Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday) Issued at 529 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017 There is good consensus among the models for MVFR CIGS to move in behind the cold front this evening. Have slowed the timing of the lower CIGS moving in based on current satellite trends. There is also good agreement in strong downglide behind the front. So chances for precip look to be pretty limited. Continued dry air advection from the northwest on Wednesday should allow CIGS to gradually lift through the day. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baerg LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...Wolters