Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/28/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1046 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area late tonight into early
Wednesday. The front may push just south of the CSRA before
returning northward as a warm front Wednesday night. A stronger
cold front will cross the area Thursday. Canadian high pressure
will build across the region Friday and Saturday. Increasing
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will bring the threat of wet
weather for the beginning of the new year.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Clouds have mixed out across the region this afternoon but more
strato-cumulus and higher clouds advecting in from the Upstate
ahead of short wave trough. Showers earlier this evening in the
Upstate ahead of approaching cold front have dissipated. Little
in the way of lift so removed evening pops in the north Midlands.
Model time heights and forecast soundings indicate abundant low
level moisture over the region tonight with dry air aloft which
is expected to lead to another night of fog and low stratus until
the front pushes through. Mixing in the boundary layer...15 to 20
knot jet may limit fog development. Latest HRRR is more optimistic
with visibilities...but can not rule out the possibility of a
dense fog advisory later tonight. Overnight lows will range
through the 50s with some upper 40s possible in the northern and
western Midlands where the front clears.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Any remaining fog should burn off quickly Wednesday
morning, although the remaining stratus may take a little longer.
The CWA should be under a small bubble of high pressure, which
should keep the precipitation at bay through the day. Mild
boundary layer temps should allow afternoon maxes to reach into
the lower to mid 60s north to the lower 70s over the CSRA.
Wednesday night, fog could settle in pretty quickly after sunset
as a strong surface inversion sets up and traps some low level
moisture. However, as the next cold front approaches from the
northwest, winds should steadily increase, along with the chance
of showers after midnight as a modest disturbance moves into the
upstate of SC and GA in the vicinity of the surface front. the
northeastern half of the FA will have the best chances of rain
before sunrise.
Thursday, the cold front will push through during the
morning...bringing the best chance of showers from the northwest
into the southeast CWA. Significant cold advection will kick in
behind the front, but it should be initially tempered somewhat by
downsloping low level flow from the west northwest. Temps should
top out at 65 to 70, but will begin to fall later in the afternoon
as the winds really start to crank up out of the northwest. Lake
Wind Advisories may be needed for Thursday afternoon across the
area with sustained winds potentially approaching 20 knots over
the lakes.
Thursday night the cold advection really starts to be felt as
surface low pressure over New England rapidly deepens, driving the
arctic area into the CWA. Temps that are expected to be well
above normal Thursday morning will drop to below normal by
Thursday night. Low temps will drop into the lower to mid 30s by
morning, and it will feel colder than that with the brisk
northwest wind.
Friday will be clear but much cooler with high temps in the upper
40s north to lower 50s south as the surface high drops to the
northern gulf coast, keeping the area in the cold advection regime.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As the surface high slides into the western Atlantic on Saturday,
temps will modify slightly, but clouds will be back on the
increase as low level isentropic lift initiates. The low levels
will probably still be dry enough to prevent any precip, but the
clouds will keep max temps down into the lower to middle 50s.
The isentropic lift will continue to increase Sunday and Monday as
an upper level trof moves into the south central U.S., opening
the Gulf of Mexico. However, the models begin to diverge in their
solutions the the GFS faster than the ECMWF in ejecting the
southern stream waves eastward into the southeastern states. For
now, I have not changed the previous forecast a whole lot, which
is more weighted toward the faster GFS (hence wetter for the area
Sunday and Monday compared to wetter conditions Tuesday for the
ECMWF), but southern stream systems are notoriously more
difficult for the models to handle, so the forecast has moderate
uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR conditions in the east and southeast Midlands including OGB
terminal. Satellite indicate low cloudiness patchy across the area
late this evening. Mixing in the boundary layer limiting any fog
development. The latest HRRR is more optimistic on
ceilings/visibility than Lamp and Mos guidance overnight.
Confidence increasing for higher visibilities than current Lamp
guidance based on satellite/observations and latest HRRR model.
A cold front was moving into the Upstate SC at 03z. The front will
push into the region overnight and stall just south of the
forecast area on Wednesday. Ahead of the frontal
passage...abundant low level moisture beneath drying mid levels
will become favorable for a period of stratus leading to mainly
MVFR and possible IFR restrictions. A limiting factor for dense
fog is a stronger low level jet tonight. Latest HRRR model
suggests reduce threat for low visibilities.
As the front pushes south and winds turn northerly bringing drier
air into the region late tonight...conditions will improve from
north to south. Expect all terminals to become VFR by 15z with
northeasterly winds around 5 to 10 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR restrictions likely Wednesday
night and Thursday as a cold front crosses the region.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
602 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/
VFR conditions are ongoing across the region with multiple cloud
decks above 3000ft. These conditions will deteriorate through the
mid- to late-evening, falling to MVFR and close to IFR
conditions by 04-06Z. IFR and LIFR conditions are then expected
08-14Z across most sites as the low-level winds switch more to the
south and bring in higher moisture. Visibilities will likely fall
in conjunction with the ceilings as dewpoint depressions fall to
near 1 degree or less per RAP model output. Visibilities of 1-3SM
are expected periodically Wednesday morning with even further
drops to 1/2SM at times being possible. Have placed TEMPO groups
in for this possibility.
A slow recovery to MVFR will occur through Wednesday morning to
early afternoon with VFR conditions occurring by early to mid
afternoon after enough mixing has occurred. Winds will remain
light at 10 knots or less through the period and switch from the
north/east currently as of 00Z to more easterly then southerly
through Wednesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
The weak cold front has slowed its southward progression along the
I-10 corridor and will eventually wash out by tomorrow morning.
The isolated showers ongoing near and south of the front may
temporarily end around sunset. Hi res models then forecast
isolated showers and potentially patchy drizzle to form across
the central and western zones overnight. Areas of fog are also
forecast to develop late tonight into Wednesday morning, with the
potential for some patchy dense fog. The low clouds and fog will
persist through midday, then a southwest flow and some breaks in
the clouds should allow temperatures Wednesday afternoon to warm
into the upper 70s to around 80. A stronger cold front is still
forecast to move through the area between 09Z-12Z Thursday. Little
precipitation is expected with this front, and if any where to
occur it would be across far southern zones.
LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Breezy and cooler Thursday behind the front. Highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s are expected Thursday. In addition, some locations
along the edge of the escarpment and to the southeast could see
gusts around 35 mph. These conditions could result in locally
elevated fire weather conditions given cured fuels. Winds should
diminish after sunset Thursday.
The GFS and ECMWF are still indicating a more active southern
stream Friday through Monday. The first impulse may skirt across
far northern zones on Friday bringing a slight chance of showers.
An increase in cloud cover late Thursday into Friday with this
disturbance should hold high temperatures on Friday only in the
50s.
Another impulse in the southern stream is forecast by both the
GFS and ECMWF to come across the area on Saturday and bring an
chance of showers to a good portion of the CWA.
Eventually the upper level low that is currently cut off
southwest of California is forecast to open and shear east into
the southern stream across the southern Plains Saturday night.
Models have trended drier and north of the CWA with the better
forcing and precip chances Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 60 78 53 61 41 / 10 10 - 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 60 77 54 61 41 / 10 10 - 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 77 55 62 42 / 20 10 - 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 58 77 49 58 38 / 10 10 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 62 77 57 63 45 / 20 - - - 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 58 77 50 59 39 / 10 10 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 64 78 57 63 42 / 20 20 - - 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 61 77 55 62 42 / 20 10 - 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 78 57 62 42 / 20 10 10 - 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 63 77 56 62 43 / 20 20 - - 0
Stinson Muni Airport 64 78 58 63 44 / 20 10 - - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
910 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front moved into SE TX earlier today and stalled near
a De Ridder LA to Tomball to north of Hondo. The front brought a
narrow line of storms to the area earlier this evening with parts
of Harris County getting 1 to 2 inches of rain. The cold front
appears to be transitioning to a warm front as pressures drop in
SE Colorado. The developing warm front will likely move north
overnight with light south winds areawide by 07z. Surface dew
points will remain in the upper 60s south of I-10 and warm back
into the upper 60s north of I-10. Min temperatures are going to be
tricky as lows may come this evening and warm over the north and
remain nearly steady over the south. Bumped min temps up a few
degrees near the coast and lowered a few degrees in the far NE
zones.
The fog threat will remain high tonight especially near the coast.
Water temps are in the lower 60s and sfc dew pts flowing over the
water are near 70. Conditions still look favorable for dense fog
over the Gulf and adjacent bays and adjacent land. How far will
the fog move inland? The HRRR and SREF confine dense fog to the
coast with low ceilings further inland. With sfc winds so light,
am leaning toward dense fog developing further inland. Not quite
ready just yet to issue a Dense Fog Advisory further inland but at
this time, am leaning toward adding Harris, Liberty and Ft Bend to
the current advisory later tonight. 43
&&
.CLIMATE...
The records just keep falling. Bush IAH reached 83 degrees today
and this is the 4th consecutive day with temperatures at or above
80 degrees. Although having 4 consecutive days at or above 80 has
happened before, it has never happened so late in the month
before. FWIW, there was a streak of 5 consecutive days with temps
AOA 80 degrees back in 1998 (3rd thru 7th). The most 80 degree
days in December was 10 days back in 2012 and the 5 occurrences of
80 degree heat so far this month is tied for 6th all time. The 83
degrees today beat the old record of 81 set in 1971. Galveston
also set a high temp record today and has established six new high
temperature records this month. 43
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016/
AVIATION...
Sea fog was already affecting KGLS and the guidance/models are
strongly suggesting LIFR at KGLS through tonight into tomorrow
afternoon. There was some indications in the forecast data that
there could be some improvement at KGLS late morning into the
early afternoon.
Elsewhere, a seabreeze has moved inland past KHOU and KSGR and
should move into the KIAH area by 00Z this evening. The HRRR and
RAP13 both showed some chances for showers through at least around
03Z. Ceilings and visibility should then lower with the lowest
visibility from KLBX to KCXO developing between 04Z and 10Z. A
frontal boundary will move into the KCLL and KUTS areas and help
provide an environment for a low visibility of 1/2 to 1 nm by
around 11Z.
Then expecting basically a repeat of today where the low
visibility lifted by mid morning. Model forecast soundings and
time sections of relative humidity with height showed decent
chances for the ceiling to lift to at least a brief period of VFR
during the mid to late afternoon period for most sites inland of
KGLS.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST Tue Dec 27 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Unseasonable warm humid conditions continue for much of the
forecast area...especially southern two thirds where dewpoints are in
the 60s and lower 70s. Max temperatures in record territory with
records broken at HOU and IAH...and highs AOA 80 many other
locations excluding right at the coast where its a bit cooler and
foggier...and over northern third of forecast area which is north
of a weak stationary front. At Crockett for example currently have
70 degrees with a more comfortable 55 dewpoint. Webcams out of
Galveston and satellite imagery suggest sea fog still prevalent at
the coast although appears to be breaking up some and becoming
more patchy over Galveston and Matagorda Bay...for the time being.
Tonight expect sea fog to again become widespread and push inland
into coastal counties with radiational cooling also contributing
to fog formation inland. As a result expect dense fog again for at
least coastal tier of counties and adjacent waters...and likely at
least another row inland much like we had this morning. Spotty
showers on radar now will continue into the evening...then an
isolated shower cant be ruled out near the east to west orienting
stationary front bisecting the forecast area. On Wednesday front
lifts north as a warm front with much of the area again seen warm
humid conditions. Wouldn`t be surprised to see 80+ degrees once
again at some sites.
Change in the weather on tap for Wed night and Thursday as a cold
front pushes from NW to SE across the area. Moisture and
instability limited with this front and not expecting much more
than a few showers with its passage. Much cooler less humid
conditions are then on tap for Thursday and Friday as front
pushes offshore and high pressure builds in.
Onshore flow kicks in again Friday night bringing more humid air
mass back into the area. Strong low level warm air advection and
an upper level disturbance suggest a rainy weather late Friday
night and especially Saturday. Rain looks to taper off by Sunday.
Models suggest another cold front approaching from the north by
next Tuesday so the roller coaster ride continues. 18
MARINE...
Areas of dense sea fog will be the primary weather hazard across the
bays/nearshore waters tonight through at least Weds night as a light
onshore flow prevails. The occasional periods of improved
visibilities are possible during the afternoon tomorrow around
the bays...but the fog is expected to linger just off the coast
line. Models remain on pace for a strong cold front for Thurs
morning. Strong/gusty off shore winds in the wake of the front
will likely require Small Craft Advisories/Caution flags by Thurs
afternoon into early Fri morning. However, we could see the return
of sea fog by Sat night/Sun morning with the return of onshore
winds/low level moisture. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 79 55 63 41 / 30 20 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 68 79 64 66 44 / 30 20 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 69 72 63 68 49 / 20 10 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Matagorda.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
831 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016
.UPDATE...Environment a little different this evening than last
evening. Unlike last evening...with southeasterly low-level flow
pushing very low stratus well inland which built down to surface
as fog...this evening low-level flow is generally westerly albeit
fairly weak. So...not seeing very low stratus spreading inland
from east coast...except for Flagler and southern St. Johns Co.
where weak seabreeze flow allowing dense fog to spread inland.
Issued advisory for those counties tonight. Elsewhere...HRRR
hi-res guidance seems to focus more on low stratus and fog
spreading across area tonight from northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Already seeing this starting just W of our ne FL forecast area.
Also seeing some areas of dense fog in interior se GA.
Expectation is for low clouds and fog to spread W to E across
much of forecast area later tonight. While areas of dense fog
are likely...uncertain as to how widespread, so will hold off
on advisory except for St. Johns and Flagler counties. Night
shift may need advisory elsehwere later tonight.
HRRR once again suggests very slow clearing...with no real
improvement until after 15z. Will update hourly grid trends
to indicate this.
&&
.AVIATION...Fog and low stratus lingered along the coastal areas
early this aftn and evening affecting SSI and SGJ. Thus...LIFR to
VLIFR expected to redevelop through later this evening for these
TAF sites and continue through Wednesday morning...with slow
improvement in the aftn. For rest of TAF sites...went with slower
reductions in CIGS and VSBY owing to slightly drier air in the
lower levels therefore taking more time to saturate. Fog and
stratus that affects the GNV terminal is likely the result of
advective stratus and fog pushing northeastward and originating
from the NE Gulf of Mexico...with Cross City and Perry at IFR/LIFR
that began around 00z. For all TAFs began slow improvement in VSBY
by around 15Z but with CIGs still LIFR or below. Flight conditions
improve Wed aftn but low flight conditions will probably linger
around SSI and SGJ through mid aftn.
&&
.MARINE...Extended marine dense fog advisory into Wed morning
as widespread sea fog expected with high dew point air spreading
over cooler shelf waters.
Rip Currents: Low risk expected Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 57 76 61 73 / 10 20 30 40
SSI 59 72 62 74 / 10 10 10 20
JAX 57 78 61 78 / 10 10 10 30
SGJ 60 76 59 79 / 10 10 10 30
GNV 58 78 58 76 / 10 10 10 30
OCF 59 79 60 76 / 10 10 0 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Flagler-St.
Johns.
GA...None.
AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal waters
from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to
Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina
Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St.
Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Wolf/Shashy/Peterson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
935 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will build into the region
overnight and then overhead on Wednesday. A cold front and low
pressure will cross the region Thursday. High pressure will
gradually build in Friday into Saturday before moving off to the
east Saturday night and Sunday. Another storm system will approach
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Skies have generally cleared out across the CWA, except in the
upslope regions where the low clouds are developing. A quiet night
in expected across the CWA, except in the upslope region where
the NAM, GFS, and RAP all have a low level saturation and very
light precipitation due to moist flow from the Great Lakes. Hard
to distinguish p-type as the RAP and NAM have temps warmer than
-4C in the saturated region, but less than 0C which is too warm
for an ice crystal to form, so a supercooled freezing drizzle
might occur. However, the 18Z GFS has temps in this layer colder
than -4C, so have added scattered snow flurries in the forecast
and increased the sky cover for the Allegheny upslope.
Wednesday will have a gusty northwest wind at daybreak as mixing
initiates, but with surface high pressure building overhead during
the afternoon hours, winds will slacken and be near calm across
the CWA by sunset. Afternoon highs will be about 5-10 degrees
warmer than normal on Wednesday, but with ample winter sunshine.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday night gets tricky. While the air mass is marginal,
radiational cooling early in the evening may quickly drop temps
down to freezing in many spots, especially NW of I-95. Then, later
at night, a system which is still back in the Rockies will move
in. Low pressure will develop in the southern Plains tomorrow, on
the tail end of the front which moved through today, and it will
move northeastward towards us tomorrow night. With surface temps
expected to be near freezing, and a marginal atmosphere, potential
exists for some sleet, freezing rain or snow, at least at the
start, for locations NW of I-95. In northeastern Maryland, the
potential reaches I-95 itself. Do not expect temps stay cold long
as southerly flow ahead of the approaching system should raise
temps above freezing after the initial potential for
frozen/freezing precip, but the damage may be done by then. We
will need to watch this situation closely in case there is a need
for winter weather advisories.
The system will move through quickly, with most places drying out
on Thursday afternoon. This system will be rapidly strengthening
however, and it won`t really be done with us yet. As it bombs out,
we expect winds to increase significantly, and there is potential
for gusts up to 50 mph starting late Thursday and continuing
Friday. If realized, this would necessitate wind advisories. In
addition, the strong NW flow is likely to result in a significant
upslope snow event along and NW of the Allegheny Front, with
potential for a significant snowfall. Winter weather advisories
also look likely. Its possible a system this strong could drag
some flurries or snow showers east of the mountains and towards
the I-95 corridor - not likely accumulating, but a few flakes.
Temps may briefly reach the 50s ahead of the cold front on
Thursday before dropping below freezing just about everywhere
Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A rapidly intensifying area of low pressure will be departing
northern New England heading into southeastern Canada Friday as
high pressure builds over the Tennessee River Valley. The pressure
gradient between the two will set up a brisk northwesterly flow
that will usher in a brief period of colder temperatures. Upslope
snow showers will continue over the western ridges of the
Allegheny Front much of the day, with a few flurries possible east
of the mountains as well.
A warming trend will commence by Saturday. A cold front will
approach from the west by Saturday evening and cross the region
overnight but models break up precipitation as forcing avoids the
area to the north.
Another transient area of high pressure pivots across the area
Sunday before retreating north into New England Sunday night into
Monday. Low pressure approaching from the south and west may bring
the next chance for precipitation area-wide early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through the next 36 hours or so as high pressure moves in from
the west. Little in the way of cloud cover expected and no
visibility reductions from fog or precip. Winds may be gusty from
the NW or N thru early tomorrow afternoon, but generally around 20 knots
will be the peak, mainly in the morning.
Sub-VFR expected late Wednesday night and Thursday. Icey
conditions are in fact possible later Wednesday night as precip
arrives to a marginally cold airmass. Some frozen or freezing
precip is possible at the onset, mainly NW of I-95. It is likely
to warm up and turn to rain in the morning Thursday, for those
places that do get a little ice or snow. After that, gusty NW
wind develops and continues thru Friday, with gusts possibly
reaching 40 knots. Otherwise, mainly VFR Friday-Saturday, though a
flurry is possible Friday. The northwesterly flow diminishes to
around 10 kts and becoming westerly to southwesterly Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Took down the SCA for overnight as low level stability right above
the boundary layer will inhibit any mixing, and extended the SCA
for all waters on Wednesday from daybreak to around noon before
winds slackening in the afternoon as the high builds directly
overhead.
Much more potent event starts Thursday through Friday as a
strengthening low pressure passes. SCA likely with gales also
looking more and more likely, probably starting late Thursday and
continuing much of Friday. Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts
may persist through Saturday as another cold front approaches the
waters.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ530>541-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lee/RCM
NEAR TERM...Lee
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...Lee/RCM/DFH
MARINE...Lee/RCM/DFH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
815 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016
.EVENING UPDATE...
Recent surface obs and RAP analyses depict an elongated area of
surface high pressure draped from west to east across the
peninsula. This feature will allow winds to become light and
variable to calm overnight tonight into early Wednesday, promoting
perhaps a better chance of fog than we have seen lately. As
overnight temperatures fall to the dewpoint, expect fog will
develop first along the Nature Coast and inland portions of
northern and central Florida. Fog may then build southward toward
morning. Fog will likely be dense in spots, especially north of
I-4 closer to the center of the surface ridge and in areas where
winds are weaker. This will certainly have an impact on travel
overnight, but especially Wednesday morning. Be very cautious if
you encounter any fog. Aside from the potential for reduced
visibilities due to fog, the weather pattern remains generally
quiet. Overnight lows will be quite mild at around 10 degrees
above normal in the low to mid 60s.
The existing forecast was in good shape. Only minor modifications
were made to expand mention of fog and tweak PoPs.
&&
.AVIATION (00z TAFs)...
VFR conditions will persist through around 06z to 07z.
Thereafter, as winds become light to calm, areas of fog will
develop. Fog may be locally dense, especially along and north of
I-4 near the center of the surface ridge. Will maintain MVFR vsbys
most terminals, and introduce IFR vsbys at KPGD/KLAL. Fog should
lift by 14z most areas with VFR conditions thereafter.
&&
.MARINE...
Patchy sea fog may be an issue for waters north of Tampa Bay
overnight tonight into Wednesday afternoon. However, dense sea fog
is not expected at this time. Surface high pressure will linger
over the waters for the next couple of days, light winds to turn
onshore with the seabreeze each afternoon. A strong cold front
will move over the waters late Thursday into Friday, bringing a
period of dangerous marine conditions. Winds of 20 to 25 knots and
seas building to over 10 feet will result in dangerous boating
conditions for several hours from late Thursday through the day
on Friday. Conditions will improve by Saturday as high pressure
quickly moves over the region, resulting in a return to
southeasterly winds Sunday into the first half of next week.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 66 80 64 76 / 0 0 0 20
FMY 66 84 65 80 / 10 10 10 0
GIF 64 82 62 79 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 64 81 62 75 / 10 0 0 10
BKV 60 81 57 77 / 0 0 10 20
SPG 66 80 64 76 / 10 0 0 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/Austin
UPPER AIR...42/Norman
DECISION SUPPORT...11/McKaughan