Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/07/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1000 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 943 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 No significant changes with the late evening update. Surface observations at Rolla, Rugby and Jamestown continue to indicate consistent visibilities under a mile. Expect open areas from the James River Valley to the Turtle Mountains are still well within Blizzard criteria with near zero visibilities. Area webcams from western portions of the Blizzard warning show improving conditions. Will allow the Warning to expire as advertised in Minot and Sherwood, Wishek and Napoleon, at Midnight. In western North Dakota, wind chills are currently around 20 below zero. We did extend the wind chill advisory farther east to include all areas west and south of Lake Sakakawea and the Missouri River, as well as the Bowbells and Stanley areas north of the lake. Winds will continue to slowly diminish across western and central North Dakota tonight. A few flurries or light snow showers are possible over the central, but any light accumulating snow will be confined to far eastern portions of the James River Valley into the Turtle Mountains. UPDATE Issued at 811 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 We have allowed the blizzard warning to expire for portions of western and central North Dakota. Mainly from Bowbells and Stanley south through Beulah, Glen Ullin, Bismarck and Selfridge. Winds continue to slowly diminish and visibilities have greatly improved. However, per the NDDOT travel is still not advised in these areas. Any streets and roads that have not been cleared may still be impassable. The Blizzard Warning Remains in effect through midnight for areas like Minot and Sherwood in the north central, and Napoleon and Wishek in the south central. The Blizzard warning will remain in effect for eastern portions of central ND, mainly from the Turtle Mountains to the James River Valley. Expect strong winds to continue here through the night with near zero visibilities, especially in open country. UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 We have extended the blizzard warning through 6 am Wednesday morning for eastern portions of central ND. this included the Turtle mountains through the James River Valley. Some cities include Bottineau...Rugby...Harvey...Carrington and Jamestown. With some of the heaviest snow accumulations over the northern James River Valley into the Turtle mountains, and strong winds expected to continue through the night, we extended the warning through 6 am Wednesday for the areas mentioned above. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 149 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Continued blizzard conditions through this evening highlight the short term forecast. Extended the Blizzard Warning through 02 UTC form Burke county through Bismarck and Mandan...Fort Yates and Linton and through 06 UTC for points further east into the James River Valley and the Turtle Mountains area. This extension is based on 0.5km winds of 40-45 kts continuing for these areas based upon the 17-18 UTC HRRR well into the evening. Across the far west, the Wind Chill Advisory remains unchanged through Wednesday morning. As the Blizzard Warning expires this evening, some counties may need to be added to the Wind Chill Advisory. As the arctic high builds into the region on Wednesday, widespread single digit highs are expected across western and central North Dakota. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 149 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 Dangerous wind chills Wednesday through Friday and the potential for accumulating snow on Saturday highlight the extended forecast. The 12 UTC global suites are in good agreement on arctic high pressure across the Northern Plains Wednesday through Friday. Dangerous wind chills are possible at least during the overnight and morning hours each day across portions of western and central North Dakota. Dependent on cloud cover, Thursday night into Friday morning may be very cold with the arctic high centered over western and central North Dakota with a large snowpack. Thereafter, accumulating snow is favored for Saturday across the area north of a surface low forecast to propagate across the central plains. The arctic airmass may rebuild across the area Sunday into next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 943 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 IFR visibilities at KJMS will continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Some improvement to MVFR visibilities can be expected by early Wednesday morning. Elsewhere low VFR to occasional MVFR ceilings will be the rule through the night and into Wednesday morning. Occasional MVFR visibilities in blowing snow can also be expected, especially at KMOT. Occasional MVFR ceilings and visibilities can be expected through the day Tuesday in gusty afternoon winds and snow showers. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Wednesday for NDZ001-002-009-010-017>021-031>034-040>045. Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for NDZ003-011-047- 050. Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ004-005-012-013- 022-023-025-036-037-048-051. && $$ UPDATE...TWH AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
811 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 811 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016 Snow has spread onto the Front Range, mainly west of Interstate 25. A couple of snow bands are stretching across the area with heavier snowfall. Will make a couple of adjustments to the forecast. First will be to trim snowfall amounts by an inch over the eastern plains. The latest GFS, ECMWF and HRRR all show precipitation amounts less than 0.15 of an inch. This would result in less than 3 inches. An exception will be under snow bands where an extra inch or two is possible. Also, increased snow accumulation by about an inch over Boulder county where heavier snow has started. Not a fan of the 00z NAM. It is not far enough east with the current snow and doesn`t show any of the snow bands. Also made minor changes to overnight lows to line up with current trends. UPDATE Issued at 605 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016 Atmosphere along the Front Range continues to moisten from the 20 to 30 deg dewpoint spreads observed earlier this afternoon. In addition KDEN and KCYS radars have detected an expanding area of light precip...i.e. snowfall over and along the Front Range especially within the past hour. The moistening is originating from aloft with mid and high level moisture spreading in from Utah in advance of the 700-500 mb trough axis. Recently updated the weather and pop grids to delay measurable snowfall within the i-25 corridor until after 01z which appears to be working out. Also delayed snowfall farther out on the plains by a couple of hours even though radar is now indicating some banning out there. In addition...the gusty southeasterly winds acrs eastern metro area and points east should ease as they turn easterly with arrival of the cold front presently slipping south through central Weld...northern Morgan and Logan counties. At its present speed...should see it in the metro area in the next hour or so. That`s when snowfall should enhance along the I-25 corridor range including the Denver metro area. Although the heavier snowfall not expected until later tonight when the upstream jet enhanced forcing arrives. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 154 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016 Light radar echoes have blossomed over the mountains and northern Front Range...foothills...and northern front range. Not much has been reported at the ground...but the process has begun. I had considered delaying the start of the mountain advisory...but snow will begin impacting roads during the afternoon. For the lower elevations...the Ruc13 shows snow starting in the metro area around 3z...the HRRR around 07z...the Nam after 03z...the GFS after 03z. Will mention mid evening as a starting time...this is good news because the evening rush should not be severely impacted. The morning rush is another story, as snow is expected to fall through mid morning Wednesday and roads will likely become snowpacked. snow accumulations are another difficult forecast today...latest SREF plume forecasts give a mean of 2-3 inches over much of northeast Colorado...with barely an inch at Limon. In the Urban Corridor the numbers were a bit higher. I was considering an extension of the advisory to cover parts of northeast Colorado...but these snow amounts in eastern Colorado were below criteria. snow will begin to decrease across the area during the afternoon on Wednesday. Temperatures will be frigid tonight and tomorrow. With clouds the mountain valleys will be warmer...but eastern Colorado will have lows in the single digits tonight...and mid teens on Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 154 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016 By Wednesday night subsidence will be moving in over the region bringing clearing skies and snow to an end by late Wednesday. Winds will be light and combined with clear skies bring overnight temperatures below zero over the forecast area. Mountains could see temperatures fall overnight to -20...especially in the valleys. On Thursday increasing NW flow aloft will bring a continual supply of moisture to the mountains with some polar jet influence keeping orographic snow possible. Temperatures will moderate on the plains but with snow on the surface and some lingering cloud cover expect temps to be slow to increase so kept highs lower then guidance. by late Thursday the jet stream will drop south bringing instability to the Northern Mountains and increase snowfall intensity slightly. The strong westerly flow will create downsloping off the foothills and keep the plains dry. Temperatures on Thursday will continue to be below normal with highs in the teens increasing back into the 40s by Friday. Conveyer of moisture will continue to move into Colorado from the NW as the jet moves south over the state by the weekend. This will create increasing snow for the mountains with a slight chance on the plains by Saturday evening with the passage of a cold front late Saturday. The front will turn surface winds more northerly...however, model guidance has just limited moisture for the plains so do not expect much in the way of accumulation. Temperatures for the weekend will drop once again but only into upper 30s and lower 40s. winds will increase in the mountains with the help of the upper jet with gusts up to 50 mph possible at higher elevations. This will cause areas of blowing snow and possible hazardous driving conditions for weekend travelers. The weather pattern will remain active into the start of next week with winds at lower elevations as the jet remains over the state. Temperatures will average closer to normal by monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 811 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016 Snow has been slow to arrive at KDEN and KAPA. Light snow/flurries should begin soon with heavier snow to start around 06z. Lowered snowfall amounts a little at KDEN to KAPA with around 3 inches expected. Low clouds with ceilings less than 2000 feet should hang on through about 18z Wednesday with reduced visibility. Conditions will slowly improve through the day, though ceilings are expected to stay below 6000 feet. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Wednesday for COZ031- 033>036-038>041. && $$ UPDATE...Meier/Baker SHORT TERM...RTG LONG TERM...Bowen AVIATION...Meier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1020 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will briefly build across the forecast area for Wednesday. Another cold front will cross the region Thursday bringing much colder air for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Winds out of the west/northwest through the night as an area of low pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Plenty of cloud cover remains over the region, and expect continued high low-level moisture. Combine this with drier air moving in aloft, along with overnight cooling, and the potential exists for significant fog development. This is being shown by the latest hrrr, nam12, and rap models late tonight into the morning hours. Best chance for development early based on the models may be across the western cwa, before spreading eastward towards morning. If this occurs, and depending on the fog density, a dense fog advisory may be needed. Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Expect lingering fog and low cloudiness in the morning Wednesday. Visibilities gradually improving, but some concern over lingering cloud cover near an inverted trough setting up near the CSRA. Otherwise, expect dry conditions Wednesday. Weak isentropic lift near the boundary ahead of an approaching front could promote some continued cloud cover Wednesday night, but no precipitation expected. Upper trough will swing from the central CONUS to the E CONUS Thursday, ahead and south of which an upper impulse will ride across the southern tier of states and across our region. A cold front will move through our region Thursday. Models indicating limited moisture with the system, with the most recent guidance blend confining slight chance pop to the N FA. Behind the front, cold dry polar high pressure will shift into the SE CONUS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The center of the polar high is expected to shift across the Ohio Valley and towards the Central/Southern Appalachians Friday night/Saturday morning. Some uncertainty as to how ideal the radiational cooling conditions can get over our FA as the high center may remain just to our north. However, if the high center can get close enough, this air mass is cold and dry enough to support undercutting guidance min temps for early Sat morning. Will maintain min temps 20-25 across the FA. Daily record low for Columbia for Dec 10th is 20, and for Augusta is 16. Latest GFS and EC continue to indicate a front coming through Monday/Monday night, with some weak isentropic lift light precip possibly developing ahead of it Sunday/Sunday night. Some uncertainty with the next system that could affect our region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Used guidance blend. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The complex low pressure system extending from the Ohio River Valley to Southeast Coast will move northeast and be mainly off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late tonight. The models show a weak pressure gradient in the forecast area. Latest CAE VWP showing LLJ slowly weakening. Expect continued high low- level moisture and with the dry air aloft and nocturnal cooling, IFR/possible LIFR ceilings and fog will likely continue through the overnight hours. Wind should remain light Wednesday with a lingering inversion. Improving ceilings and visibilities associated with some heating may be slow to occur Wednesday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A cold front with little moisture will move through the area Thursday. Breezy conditions may be associated with the front. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
550 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 .DISCUSSION... Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion. && .AVIATION... Not much change from the previous TAF set. Did slow the increase in cloud coverage a few hours...with lower clouds beginning to push south into VCT around 05Z...reaching ALI-CRP-LRD around 07Z. Mostly MVFR CIGs overnight...however with -DZ possible...CIGs may lower to IFR. Slight lifting in CIGs through the day...but should maintain MVFR around 2000-2500 FT during the afternoon...along with -RA possible. Winds will generally be light out of the north becoming more east-northeast after 18Z. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)... The front continues to advance through South Texas, south of a Columbus to Uvalde line at 21Z, with post-frontal stratus a little behind the boundary. Appears this cloud cover will reach the area after the front moves through this evening. Went closer to the HRRR with timing of cloud cover increase. Updated the TAFs to show this adjusted timing also. Isentropic lift will gradually be on the increase from Deep South Texas Wednesday morning. Will show possibility of light drizzle over the Brush Country to the Coastal Bend. Isentropic lift/warm air advection axis shifts toward the coastal plains in the afternoon. But chances for measurable rain look minimal, so will only show 10 percent PoP for now. With cloud cover assisting with keeping shallow cool air mass in place, high temperatures may struggle to reach 60 degrees over the northern Brush Country. The front is expected to stall early Wednesday morning just east of the offshore waters and move back toward the coast as a warm front but still be over the Gulf waters through Wednesday evening. Arctic air mass will be surging south toward the area Wednesday night and reach the coastal waters before daybreak Thursday. The models usually struggle with timing of arctic air masses so would not be surprised if it arrives sooner. With that in mind, kept the start of the Gale Watch for the Gulf waters at 09Z Thursday. Low level warm air advection over the coastal plains and coastal waters will lead to a chance for showers with the frontal passage Wednesday night. LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Post frontal winds will be very strong during the day on Thursday with a 7 to 8 mb pressure gradient across the forecast area at its peak. Strongest winds will occur in open marine waters where warm SSTs will promote efficient mixing down of 30 to 40 knot winds. Gusts as high as 30 to 40 knots will be possible for marine areas with 30 to 40 mph gusts possible for much of South Texas. Enough moisture will linger aloft that a developing weak upglide flow around the 700mb level will linger a chance of showers behind the front, mainly in the south. Expect a cold day with highs in the 50s. Rain chances should diminish Thursday night with a cold night in store. Decreasing clouds in the north will allow temps to drop to near freezing...currently have lows of around 34 degrees, but could see a few locations colder than that. If clouds clear faster would also expect colder temperatures. Expect mid to upper 30s farther south with clouds lingering longer. Northerly winds weaken Friday, but temperatures will stay cold. Locations north and west may not make it out of the 40s. Wind will gradually shift around to the east and southeast Saturday and Sunday. This will allow for a gradual moderation of temperatures with a return to near or even slightly above normal temperatures expected. Moisture will also increase along the coast bringing a slight chance for showers back into the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 50 68 53 54 39 / 0 10 30 30 20 Victoria 45 65 47 50 34 / 0 10 30 10 10 Laredo 49 65 49 52 37 / 10 10 10 50 20 Alice 48 66 50 53 37 / 10 10 20 40 20 Rockport 52 65 51 54 41 / 0 10 30 30 20 Cotulla 45 60 46 51 35 / 0 10 10 20 10 Kingsville 49 68 52 54 38 / 10 10 30 50 20 Navy Corpus 54 67 54 56 42 / 0 10 30 40 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ CB/85...AVIATION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1100 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 Rain has exited eastern Kentucky as drier air filters in behind a cold front. Stratus will slowly erode through the night as west/northwest winds diminish to near and eventually below 5 mph. UPDATE Issued at 653 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 Light rain continues to push east across far eastern Kentucky ahead of an impending cold front. West/northwest wind gusts of 10-20 mph will continue this evening before diminishing as high pressure inches closer. Should see upslope induced rain come to an end by midnight as drier air advects in. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 Cool damp weather to continue throughout the afternoon and evening hours today, although the ongoing rain is tapering off quite a bit faster than previously forecast. The HRRR model has the last of the rain out of eastern Kentucky by between 0 and 1Z this evening. Based on the latest radar trends, and the HRRR data, have decided to speed up precipitation evolution across eastern Kentucky by several hours, with the last isolated showers or patches of drizzle moving out of the area between 3 and 4Z. The rain may actually end even faster than this, but did not feel comfortable going completely dry as quickly as the HRRR is currently suggesting. The latest model data has eastern Kentucky experiencing a dry period of weather on Wednesday as the current upper trough continues to move off well to our east. There could be a brief period of light rain and snow showers Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, as a second upper level low moves by just to our south. At this time precipitation probabilities late Wednesday into Thursday look be quite low, 15 to 24 percent on average, so only isolated rain/snow showers are expected at this time. With such a small chance of precipitation expected, decided not to include any snowfall accumulations at this time. Temperatures should be running slightly below normal tomorrow and tomorrow night, with daytime highs on Wednesday in the 40s and overnight lows ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Tonights lows should be at or slightly above normal due to the influence of the expected widespread cloud cover. Tonights lows should be in the low to mid 30s for most locations. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 309 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 While not official by the calendar, winter will arrive on Thursday as a very cold airmass filters into the region. Models continue to back away from the precipitation potential on Thursday as a weak wave forms on the polar front to our southeast, but too far away to produce much precipitation this far west. Will maintain a 20 PoP for our southeast counties, but that`s it. Temperatures will likely not rise much on Thursday, remaining in the mid 30s for most locations. Cold advection engages Thursday night with a better upslope component to the winds developing and continuing into the day on Friday. Models show sufficient moisture in the -8c to -12c layer for snow flurries to develop, and I would not be too surprised if we don`t eventually need to add some isolated snow showers into the forecast for our higher terrain. Whatever the case, Friday will be our coldest day since last February with highs remaining below freezing for most locations. Low temperatures Friday night are still a little tough to figure out as despite the fact high pressure moves overhead, some mid and high level cloudiness may disrupt prime radiational cooling conditions. Our weather pattern transitions quickly to southwest flow aloft over the weekend as a shortwave traverses the Pacific Northwest and northern Plains states. As a result, temperatures will moderate out of the freezer to the mid 30s Saturday and mid to upper 40s by Sunday. The shortwave will continue across the Great Lakes and into New England into early next week forcing a surface cold front through the region. Timing differences remain, but are not as extreme as yesterday, and models appear to be settling on a Sunday night frontal passage. Was able to nix PoPs for Saturday night, and ramp them up Sunday into Sunday night. Will continue to mention a rain/snow mix at onset Sunday morning over our northern counties, but that is looking like a minimal concern with the bulk of the precipitation not entering the area until Sunday afternoon when it will fall as rain. This system moves through quickly on Monday with decreasing PoPs and a brief cool down which may allow some of the precip to end as snow or a rain/snow mix into Monday night. High pressure is then progged to build in on Tuesday with seasonable conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016 Ceilings currently in the LIFR/IFR category will slowly improve toward IFR/MVFR criteria this evening and tonight as rain exits off to the east and drier air filters in behind a cold front. As this occurs, west/northwest winds of near 10 knots with a few gusts near 15 knots will take place before approaching high pressure moves toward eastern Kentucky later on tonight. VFR ceilings should return by mid Wednesday morning as mixing ensues in tandem with aforementioned drier air advecting in. Winds will continue veering northwesterly while decreasing below 5 knots Wednesday afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...GUSEMAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
849 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016 .UPDATE... The forecast was updated to account for lower overnight temperatures. Some TTU mesonet sites have already reached their forecast low this evening or were approaching it. Scattered clearing of the high level cirrus and relatively light winds have allowed temperatures to rapidly decrease this evening at some locations more than others. Low level moisture will continue to increase through the rest of the evening and overnight hours. Additionally, low stratus is expected to move in early Wednesday morning. However, these activities will likely be too late to greatly affect the already low temperatures observed. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 549 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/ AVIATION... Good low level moisture return this evening will spread stratus northwestward, likely affecting KLBB and KPVW late tonight. IFR conditions looking the most likely outcome. Veering of winds to the west ahead of an arctic cold front should restore VFR conditions by Wednesday afternoon. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/ SHORT TERM... Colder weather has settled in across the area and we will see another reinforcing surge of arctic air on Wednesday. Surface high pressure ridge is centered to our NE and is moving away as winds respond to low pressure across Colorado. Broad cyclonic flow to continue across the southern Conus with strong jet and flow of Pacific moisture keeping mid and high clouds over the region. Focus late tonight turns toward prospect of low stratus and freezing fog as NAM...HRRR and RAP all indicating areas of advection fog developing as low level warm moist advection commences above cold surface temps. Not expecting significant precipitation early Wednesday as moisture is very shallow so left out mention for now. Low stratus/fog likely to lift by mid to late morning as westerly surface winds increase ahead of next cold surge in the late morning to early afternoon. Would normally expect this type of front to be well ahead of schedule...and that may happen but given shallow nature of front and cyclonic zonal flow aloft...model timing may be pretty close. We are currently expecting front into northern zones by noon to 1 pm...through Lubbock by 1-3 pm...and clearing the remainder of the Rolling Plains and southern South Plains by 5 pm. Leaned toward the lower end of MOS guidance given nature of this modified Cp airmass. Highs occurring early...then temps falling quickly toward sunset. James LONG TERM... Only change of concern to the inherited long term package was to introduce non-measurable wintry precip late Wed night into early Thu following tomorrow`s strong FROPA. Model soundings are trending more moist in the post-frontal regime with decent saturated depths progged along the frontal inversion. Coldest temps within this saturation are at -10C or warmer at times, so some ice nucleation/snowflake development is possible. However, muted ascent and dry air advection should limit any of this to just light freezing drizzle and flurries before the stratus erodes from N-S Thu afternoon. On that note, latest MAV is very stubborn in clearing out clouds during the day, hence its highs only in the upper 20s for Lubbock. Feel lower 30s is a safe bet for now given some clearing and very dry air advecting south, which will set the stage for another bout of chilly lows Fri morning. Largely zonal upper pattern through late week will keep the chilly surface ridge progressive and allow a nice recovery in max temps by Sat, before another cold front becomes dislodged by a shortwave trough to our north. GFS is more bullish with this wave than the ECMWF and therefore is about 12 hours faster with the front. Not inclined to bite on any one solution yet, but have nudged temps cooler on Sun - somewhere between the chilly GFS and unseasonably mild ECMWF. Thereafter, an even more significant cold wave looks to be materializing given a southward dislodging of the Polar vortex progged through the Canadian Prairies, with bitterly cold air (850mb temps of -20C or colder) possibly overspreading a large chunk of the Great Plains Mon-Tue. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 01/07