Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/16/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
952 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move over eastern New England
overnight with showers continuing from the Capital Region north. The
skies will gradually clear tomorrow. Fair and mild conditions are
forecast Thursday into Saturday with high pressure in control.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 952 PM EST...Low pressure continues to move slowly north to
northeast to the central MA/NE CT border. The h500 closed
circulation remains centered over KBGM according to the latest
RAP. This coastal wave tracked closer to the region and had a
strong warm conveyor belt of moisture with rainfall totals from 1
to close to 3 inches across much of the mid-Hudson
Valley...Eastern Catskills and Capital Region. Please see our
latest Public Information Statement with more details on the
rainfall amounts. Much lower totals fell northwest of the Capital
Region. Overall...this soaking rainfall was beneficial due to the
moderate to severe drought conditions in place across most of the
forecast area.
Overnight...rain and scattered showers associated with the mid and
upper deformation zone with the system will persist especially
from the Capital District north and west. The POPS were kept the
highest in these locations especially the southern Adirondacks and
the western Mohawk Valley the next few hours. The latest trends
from the HRRR are for a continued tapering to isolated to
scattered showers overnight. Little or no shower activity is
expected south of the Tri Cities. Plenty of clouds will persist
with the lower troposphere loaded with moisture. Temps will not
move much and were retooled and slightly increased with widespread
upper 30s to lower 40s. There could be some spotty mid 30s over
the higher terrain. The winds will increase well after midnight
from the west to northwest at 5-10 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With the upper trough still overhead, there will be more clouds
than sun for Wednesday, although some breaks will occur from time
to time for valley areas. There could be a few additional light
rain showers or sprinkles across western areas thanks to the
passing upper level trough, but it should be dry for most of the
day. Highs will be milder once again, with temperatures reaching
into the 50s for valley areas.
As the upper level through starts to slide eastward, strong upper
level ridging will build into the area for the remainder of the
work week, as a large area of surface high pressure dominates
much of the eastern US. This will allow for dry weather with
clearing skies for Wed night through Thursday Night. Temps aloft
will be warming, allowing for above-normal daytime highs.
Overnight lows on Wed/Thurs nights will generally be in the 30s
and highs on Thursday look to reach the upper 40s to upper 50s
across the area. Most spots will see highs of 5 to 10 degrees
above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A strong ridge of high pressure at both the surface and aloft
will bring fair and mild weather to the area Friday into Saturday.
Lows generally in the 30s with highs mainly in the 50s. With a
very dry atmospheric column, the lows both mornings could be 5-7
degrees colder than forecast with light winds and clear skies.
Uncertainty in the forecast grows as an upper trough is expected
to approach and become negatively tilted (12Z GFS) or cut off
south of the area (12Z Euro). GFS solution would bring a period of
rain followed by colder air and lake effect snows as colder air
get pulled in from Canada. Euro solution would imply a significant
snow storm for at least the northwest part of our forecast area.
GFS solution is also faster and would have some precipitation
reaching our area by later Saturday. WPC probabilistic guidance
has a 30-50 percent chance of accumulating snow Sunday into Monday
across the western part of the forecast area. For now, just put a
statement in our HWO for entire area mentioning the possibility of
accumulating snow Sunday into Monday. Lows on sunday in the 30s
with highs in the 30s and 40s. Lows on Monday from the Mid 20s to
low 30s and highs from the upper 20s to around 40.
By Tuesday, weather looks cold and brisk with northwest flow with
lake effect snows in the favored areas and snow flurries possible
across the rest of the area. Lows in the teens and 20s with highs
in the upper 20s to around 40.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure continues to slowly move north to northeast across
southern New England this evening. It will be near the Gulf of
Maine tomorrow morning....and move further north towards Maine in
the afternoon.
In the moist and damp air mass flight conditions have fallen to
IFR/MVFR levels at KALB/KPSF/KPOU/KGFL. KPOU and KALB continue to
have IFR VSBYS...and KGFL/KPSF MVFR. The conditions are expected
to worsen to IFR/Low MVFR with the intermittent rain tapering to
sct showers and drizzle shortly before or just after 05Z. A slow
improvement is expected at KPOU btwn 09Z-12Z to MVFR conditions in
terms of CIGS/VSBYS. However...KALB/KGFL/KPSF may hold with IFR
CIGS at least until 14Z. A gradually improvement to high MVFR/low
VFR is expected thereafter. KPSF will likely hold with low MVFR
CIGS until the early pm when drier air finally filters in.
Overall...after 18Z WED...high MVFR/VFR conditions will return to
all the terminals.
The winds will be north to northwest at 5-10 kts early this
evening...and then will become light and variable in direction at
5 kts or less. The winds will increase from the west to northwest
at 5-8 kts after 12Z WED...and will increase to around 10 kts by
the afternoon.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night to Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure will move from south of Long Island this evening to
north of Boston, Massachusetts tonight, bringing periods of rain
to the area. Skies should gradually clear on Wednesday. Fair and
mild conditions are forecast Thursday into Saturday.
RH values will stay elevated tonight with light northerly winds.
On Wednesday, clouds will break for some sunshine, mainly for
valley areas. RH values will fall to 50 to 70 percent in the
afternoon with west winds of 5 to 15 MPH. Winds become
northwesterly and will diminish to 5 MPH or less Wednesday night
as RH values recover to near 100 percent.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall today has ranged from a quarter inch over the far
northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties to 1 to 2+ inches across
the eastern Catskills and Mid Hudson valley. Further north the
Albany Airport has reported 1.43 inches as of 00Z.
Although a stray lingering shower can`t be ruled out for western
areas on Wednesday, dry weather will return for Wednesday night through
Saturday. Another chance of rain will arrive with another frontal
boundary for Saturday night into Sunday.
The US Drought Monitor continues to have much of the area in the
D1 (Moderate Drought) to D2 (Severe Drought) categories. This
rainfall is helpful, but probably not enough to significantly
change these classifications this week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...SND/Wasula
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...Wasula/SND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
931 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Main update was to remove any mention of freezing rain from
forecast grids. A few radar returns are showing up across
southwestern North Dakota however at this time no observations of
rain making it to the ground, which has been the case for eastern
Montana through the night.
UPDATE Issued at 540 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Previous forecast mostly on track. Only update was to add in a
slight chance of rain southwest as the latest HRRR runs are
picking up on some radar returns near Miles City Montana.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
The main concern tonight will be the chance for light
precipitation across mainly northern parts of North Dakota.
Short term models solutions are in general agreement that there
will be a weak lead upper wave tonight along with increasing H85
warm air advection. This will bring a chance of precipitation to
northern parts of the state tonight. Have carried the highest pops
(likely) near the border with Canada.
Precipitation type should primarily be rain, with thermal
profiles warm enough to support all liquid, but have some concern
a few spots in the far north could have surface temperatures fall
to near freezing overnight. Will have only a few small grid points
with any freezing rain potential for a brief period late tonight,
so will not draw any special attention to it for now.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
The main concern in the long term continues to surround the storm
which is expected to move across parts of the Central and
Northern Plains Thursday and Friday. The 12z model suite has
continued to show a more southern track to the storm which would
bring a smaller area of potential snow accumulations to western
and central North Dakota. GEFS ensemble QPF plumes have also been
showing more agreement, so confidence in general has been
increasing with this system.Have shown the best snow chances from
south of Bismarck towards the James River Valley. Have issued
another Special Weather Statement to provide the latest
information with this storm and its potential impacts to western
and central North Dakota.
While the snow potential has been in question with this storm
across our area, the colder temperatures remain more certain.
Will see high temperatures in the 30s for Thursday, and upper 20s
to lower 30s Friday. The coldest temperatures are not expected to
last very long with a warming trend forecast through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the 00Z forecast
cycle. There will be a chance of rain showers north at KISN and
KMOT and have added in VCSH for those locations. Also a slight
chance tonight at KDIK but very slight and have opted to keep
mention of rain out of TAF for KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...MM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
944 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...Made a few edits to weather grids in an attempt to
better pin down onset, ending, extent, and density of fog later on
tonight. Removed any mention of fog until 06Z per observational
trends and 00Z NAM MOS guidance. Greatest extent of fog still
expected between 09-15Z, but kept wording at only "patchy" for
Upper Valley where dewpoint depressions are still running 10-15
deg F. Left areas of dense fog for the mid-Lower RGV as they were,
but ended fog at 15Z (as indicated in 00Z TAF`s) as it should be
fairly quick to burn off...more so than this morning. Updated text
products have been sent.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 556 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...Primary aviation weather issue for the next 24 hours will
again be reduced visibilities in fog overnight. Calm winds and
clear skies should provide nearly ideal conditions for radiational
cooling, but the situation isn`t totally analogous to last night
when VLIFR fog developed at HRL and MFE. Dewpoints are down 5-10
degrees vs. 24 hours at those terminals but approximately the same
for BRO. HRRR model focuses lowest dewpoint depressions overnight
over Cameron County, especially BRO, but statistical guidance
once again hitting MFE and HRL harder with the fog.
All that being said, kept the trend of previous TAF`s intact,
attempted to pin down timing a little more, and went a bit less
pessimistic on lowest visibilities expected at BRO. Generally
expecting MVFR mist to form around 06Z, gradually lowering to
prevailing IFR by 09Z, with TEMPO LIFR at BRO and VLIFR at HRL/MFE
through around sunrise. With the lower dewpoints at the surface,
fog should burn off more quickly than today, with VFR returning by
15Z. Winds shift to SE tomorrow afternoon with continued VFR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 206 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night): 500mb ridge across
northern Mexico and west Texas will provide subsidence across the
CWA tonight through Wednesday night. Surface high pressure across
the northwest Gulf coast will provide light winds across the CWA
tonight. With clear skies...radiational fog will likely redevelop
across the area late tonight into early Wednesday. Some areas of fog
will be locally dense. Dense fog advisories will likely be needed
for portions of the Rio Grande valley after midnight tonight. The
fog will begin to lift and burn off Wed morning as diurnal heating
increases. Will mention patchy fog for Wed night as winds will
increase slightly but some isolated dense fog cannot be ruled out
for tomorrow night.
LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): The main forecast issue this
long term relates mainly to a cold front arriving late in the week.
Thursday will be warm, several degrees above normal, with moderate
to breezy southeast winds due to Gulf high pressure interacting with
plains low pressure. A cold front will push into Northwest Texas
ahead of a mid level short wave trough reaching its nadir over the
Central to Southern High Plains, itself ahead of mid level ridging
building over the West Coast. Overnight low temperatures will
range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
Conditions on Friday will initially be copacetic, with moisture
pooling during the day leading to some additional cloudiness and
knocking a couple of degrees off high temperatures versus those of
the previous day. A few coastal and even mid valley showers may be
encouraged to develop, hinted by moisture pooling and the omega
field. High temps should not be moderated by the front itself, which
will not arrive until temps are already cooling after sundown.
Look for the wind shift after sundown Friday, strengthening from the
north through midnight. A good indicator is better seen over the
marine areas, where the strongest winds reach the Brownsville line
around midnight or shortly thereafter. Isolated thunder may occur,
mainly near the coast, but the shallow cold air wedge and lack of
upper support should limit deeper convection. Cold air advection
should be enough to drop low temperatures into the 50s by Saturday
morning, with moderate to breezy north winds.
A few showers and low clouds will linger through Saturday, mainly
near the coast. High temperatures look like they will be mainly in
the 60s for the day. The second night will be the coolest, with low
temperatures dipping into the 40s Saturday night inland, oh my!
Drier air and the return of the sun on Sunday will help high temps
recover into the upper 60s to lower or mid 70s, near normal, with an
otherwise pristine day. The remainder of the long term will be
uneventful with a slow warming trend to slightly warmer than normal
temps on Monday and Tuesday.
MARINE:
Tonight through Wednesday night...Seas were near 2 feet with west
winds near 8 knots at buoy020 this afternoon. Light and variable
winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight with weak
surface high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico. The
pressure gradient will remain weak across the lower Texas coast
Wednesday. Light southeast winds will develop across the coastal
waters Wednesday and increase Wed night as low pressure develops
along the lee side of the rockies and high pressure prevails
across the southeast United States.
Thursday through Sunday...Light to moderate southeast winds and low
to moderate seas will prevail on Thursday as broad high pressure
over the Gulf interacts with lower pressure over the central high
plains. As plains low pressure shifts northeast late Thursday with a
maturing storm system, the associated cold front will push into
North Texas with high pressure right behind it. The gradient will
flatten and marine winds will weaken on Friday through early aftn.
The cold front will reach the coast late Friday evening, shifting
winds to northeast and strengthening them. Small craft advisory
conditions should develop by midnight, although gusts may push
conditions into the gale category over the Gulf waters for much of
the rest of Friday night and early Saturday morning. Wave heights
are projected to build to between 8 and 10 ft offshore by Saturday
afternoon. High pressure will spread over the area on Saturday, with
winds and seas decreasing Saturday night into Sunday. Small craft
advisory conditions for elevated seas on the Gulf waters may persist
into Saturday night. Though mid level ridging should limit deeper
convection, showers and tstms will be possible with the front from
late Friday into Saturday morning.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
53-Schroeder...Short-term
60...Long-term
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
955 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach from the south and track into the Gulf
of Maine overnight. The low will lift to our north on Wednesday.
High pressure builds Thursday into Saturday. Low pressure is
expected to bring unsettled conditions Saturday night into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 PM Update: The latest radar imagery showed rain expanding
further n into western and downeast areas. Surface analysis showed
ridging from high pres to the n helping to keep the rain at bay
w/drier air holding on. This will change however over the next 2
to 4 hrs as the ridge breaks down. Low pres was moving into MA
w/coastal front just offshore. Still expecting periods of moderate
to heavy rain overnight into Wednesday morning w/45 kt llvl jet
pulling northward. Adjusted the timing using the latest HRRR and
18z NAM which was handling rain shield well. Hrly temps were
adjusted to match the latest conditions and will stay where they
are for a while before warming a bit by Wednesday morning. Left out
the mention of any tstms as airmass looks to stable w/marine layer
in place. This could change on Wednesday across eastern areas as
waa hits in the llvls and the column destabilizes.
Previous Discussion...
The 12z NAM seems to hv the most lkly scenario. Parent H5 low wl
continue to lift thru the Hudson Vly and pull tropical moisture
north to feed into the system. PW values increase to 2-3 SD abv
normal thru the ovrngt to nr 1.10 inches.
If any convection can get going ovrngt, expect locally hvy
rainfall in moist airmass. Hwvr, mid-lvl lapse rates dcrs the
further north and east of the low so hv opted not to include in
fcst attm.
QPF amnts look to be highest acrs the Bangor Region up into the
Central Highlands. Total QPF wl range fm 1.25-1.50 inches with
amnts arnd 1 inch elsewhere. As for mins tonight, not expecting
much drop off aft midnight, in fact temps wl lkly rise aft this
time. Expect srn zones to be in the 50s by 09z and rising thru the
rmndr of the day Wed.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Wednesday night, the weakening surface low will drift over the
forecast area through the evening and gradually give way to a
northwest flow later in the night as high pressure builds from the
west. There will still be some rain in the early evening towards
the Saint John Valley before the weakening shortwave propagates northward
into Quebec. There will be a great deal of sub H850 moisture and
resultant cloud cover through Wednesday night. Patchy fog is
likely until the northwest flow arrives later in the night and
have introduced into the grids. Lows will be mild in the mid 40s.
Surface and upper level ridging will build Thursday with northwest
winds, but the moisture will be trapped under a subsidence
inversion all day in northern zones. Bangor and the Down East
region will see some sunshine if winds stay NW due to downsloping,
but this will not materialize if wind stay more northerly. Highs
will be well above normal in the low to mid 50s as there`s no
significant cold air advection behind the low. Although the ridge
will build over the forecast area Thursday night, the
stratocumulus will probably not erode until the H925 ridge line
has crossed the area. Have pushed this ridge line further west
through Thursday and kept clouds in the forecast through most of
Thursday night. This also resulted in a slight uptick in the
overnight low forecast. If any clearing does occur, especially in
northern zones, temperatures will quickly drop to freezing with
patchy fog and black ice possible. On Friday, the stratocumulus
fields will gradually erode as the northerly flow ends and drier
air advects over the area. This will produce yet another mild day
with highs in the low to mid 50s...and possibly warmer looking at
H925 temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long term begins with mild and partly cloudy skies under
weakening high pressure as two low pressure systems approach, one
from the Great Lakes and the second from the NW Atlantic. The
Atlantic low will be the first to affect the region as winds shift
to the east bringing a greater potential of low clouds and showers
to the area on Saturday. Expect rainshowers to spread across the
area from the southeast through the afternoon and evening
Saturday and becoming widespread by Sunday morning as this system
merges with the approaching Great Lakes low. Currently expect more
enhanced showers across northern and western areas. Colder air
begins to filter into the region through Monday with showers
mixing or changing to snow mainly over western and northern
regions by Monday night. Temperatures should begin above normal on
Saturday but return to near normal conditions by Monday evening.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions remain through 05z at FVE before
quickly dropping to IFR overnight. MVFR at CAR, PQI and HUL will
drop to IFR after 09z tonight in low cigs and -RA. BGR and BHB
expected to see IFR next next 24 hours. LLWS expected at BHB after
06z and possibly BGR toward 09z but confidence is low and will let
later forecasts introduce the potential.
SHORT TERM: IFR conditions due to cig and vis are expected
Wednesday night, but will improve to MVFR later in the night. MVFR
cigs will persist through Thursday night north of HUL. BGR and BHB
are expected to be predominately VFR Thursday and Friday with just
a chance of MVFR cigs. All terminals will become VFR by later
Friday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA in effect tonight through Wed afternoon with wind
gusts over 25kts this evng and seas building to between 5-8 feet.
May need to extend SCA through Wed evng for hazardous seas as
winds diminish.
SHORT TERM: Some gusts may approach 25 kts later Thursday night
into Friday morning, but confidence is not high for an SCA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Proxigean Spring Tide will occur this week. The moon will make
the closest approach to Earth since Jan 1948. The tide, also known
as the King Tide, will bring abnormally high and low tides thru the
17th.
Low pressure will ride into srn New England tonight and progged to
be in southwest Maine around the time of high tide. High tide at
Bar Harbor is at 1129 am tomorrow. The strongest onshore flow now
looks to correspond to high tide. If the winds were several kts
stronger then we would be concerned with minor coastal flooding,
however they appear to be just below 28kt gusts. Hwvr any change
in the strength of the wind with the latest runs tonight wl need
to be very closely monitored.
For the time being hv issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for coastal
Hancock and Washington counties btwn 15z and 18z Wed. Currently
expecting minor splashover at low-lying and exposed areas right
along the immediate coast.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for
MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
937 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Evening water vapor loop shows several vort maxes across the
state...while at the sfc a weakening trough axis associated with
weak sfc low over Michigan is moving towards the area. No impacts
to sensible weather expected overnight with these features. Lows
expected to be in the 40s. Mid level height rises will allow high
temps on Wednesday to rebound into the lower 70s all locations
except the mtns. Biggest concern continues to be smoke dispersion
from wildfires. Eastern portions of the CWA may see lingering
effects/minor visibility reductions/ overnight tongiht...while
other portions of the CWA will notice smoky conditions around/just
after sunrise. The northerly component to the wind on Wednesday
will be responsible for dispersing the smoke south across most of
the CWA...with low-level temp inversion helping to trap the smoke
near the sfc. Refer to SPS and AQA products for more details on
smoky conditions. Please continue to take fire and air quality information
seriously.
Kovacik
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 311 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday/...
As mentioned in previous update discussion, main concerns are
fire weather forecast conditions and smoke trajectory/
concentration forecasts. Latest model guidance confirming
observed trends showing mid level clouds and what little precip
that is occurring dissipating quickly. Expect clear skies by late
evening. Surface winds will weaken but continue from the NW and
is expected to shift to more NW or NNW overnight. Flow in lowest
few thousand feet overnight will be strong enough to bring smoke
particulates back into Atlanta metro area and continue through
much of Wednesday. Does not appear from USFS and HRRR smoke model
guidance that concentrations will be as high as they were Monday
but too much uncertainty to rule that out, especially if fires
expand or intensify.
Georgia DNR EPD has issued Code Red for tomorrow for Atlanta Metro
areas, which is the only area that can have such alerts issued.
Outside of these areas, our special weather statement also
highlights the risk from smoke.
As the surface high pushes east, surface winds will become SE
Thursday. So should see a couple day break from the smoke until
flow becomes NW again.
Thursday will also see very warm temps with highs in the upper 70s
to around 80. Does not appear daily records will be broken
however. See climate section below.
No significant precip expected through early next week.
SNELSON
LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
A few tweaks were made to the long term. Winds have been increased
a bit for Saturday into Sunday. New guidance showing winds stronger
during that time period. Have also reduced the slight chance area
for Saturday. Models continue to show a drying trend as the front
moves to the south. Otherwise the forecast looks on track.
41
.CLIMATE...
Records for 11-17
Max Temperature Min Temperature
Station High Low High Low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 84 1958 44 1951 63 1930 25 1997
1984
1943
KATL 81 1985 42 1951 63 1930 22 1997
1958 1914 1890
KCSG 84 1958 47 1951 65 1986 22 1901
1921 1916 1929
KMCN 85 1964 48 1951 65 1986 22 1901
1958 1920 1957
1914
Records for 11-18
Max Temperature Min Temperature
Station High Low High Low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 80 1994 39 2014 63 1930 22 2014
1942
1938
KATL 80 1985 37 2014 63 1930 18 1891
2000 1928
KCSG 84 1985 42 2014 66 1986 26 2014
1951
KMCN 85 2013 42 2014 66 1986 23 2014
1957 1997
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values got close to critical thresholds this afternoon across
middle georgia. These will recover quickly. With abundant
sunshine, dry conditions and light NW winds. Conditions may
approach criteria Wednesday and will likely be met on Thursday
when daytime humidity drops to 20 to 30 percent across much of
the area. Will need to monitor this. Fortunately, winds will
remain light on Thursday.
.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Main forecast challenge will be timing and intensity of smoke
dispersion from wildfires in N Ga/W NC. AHN will likely be
affected by FU this entire TAF cycle...while all other TAF sites
/except CSG/ will likely see minor reductions in VSBY more
towards sunrise/shortly thereafter. Kept mention of fog out of
TAFs for now but will monitor trends. Winds will remain out of the
NW this period between 5-10kts. Any lingering low-level and/or
high level cloud cover will diminish by early afternoon.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence in smoke trajectory/VSBY
High confidence on all other elements
Kovacik
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 46 70 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 49 70 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 41 64 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 43 69 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 50 73 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 48 68 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 45 73 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 43 71 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 45 71 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 46 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Kovacik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
813 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
There is once again the potential for fog in SE KS from late
tonight til early/mid morning tomorrow. Both the NAM & HRRR
soundings (more so the NAM) depict nearly all of SE KS being
fogged in by 5 AM. There is some disparity in the potential for
dense fog, and as such checked the swing on issuing a Dense Fog
Advisory for time being.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Mild and dry weather conditions will persist on Wed-Thu before a
cold front arrives ushering in more seasonable air and a slight
chance for light precipitation late Thu.
Meanwhile, windy and warm weather conditions will drive the
grassland fire danger index into the very high category across much
of south central and central KS on Wed. A few locations across
central KS may see a brief period where the GFDI reaches the extreme
category, however given the short duration and small areal coverage
no headlines are planned at this time. In addition, record high
temperatures are also expected at RSL, ICT and SLN.
A vigorous mid/upper trough will move into the Rockies on Thursday
driving a strong cold front into the Central Plains states. Wind
speeds across central KS will subside within the prefrontal trough
axis while windy conditions persist across much of south central and
southeast KS. Strong southwest winds will drive the grassland fire
danger index into the very high category once again across much of
the forecast area on Thu afternoon. A record high temperature or two
may fall across south central and southeast KS on Thu although
cooler air will arrive over central KS. Low pops were maintained
across southeast KS although better chances for light rain should
remain south and east of the area.
Breezy northwest winds will persist across the area again on Friday
with highs struggling to climb out of the 40s over parts of central
KS. Breezy northwest winds will combine with minimum relative
humidities around 40 percent helping to drive the GFDI into the very
high category over much of central/south central KS on Fri afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Dry weather conditions and seasonably mild temperatures are
anticipated at the start of the period as a mid/upper ridge builds
eastward across the central Conus. The ridge is progged to break
down as we move into the early next week as a progressive shortwave
trough emerges from the southern Rockies late Mon into Tue. The
GFS/ECMWF are fairly consistent with the phase but differ
considerable with amplitude and maintained pops across the area late
Mon into Tue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Fog has proven to be a major problem in SC & spcly SE KS the past
2 mrngs & wl be agn fm late Tngt-Wed Mrng. Vsbys acrs SE KS are
lkly to rpdly drop to 1-3SM ~09Z w/ wdsprd 1/2SM FG lkly arnd day
break. Vsbys wl rpdly improve ~14Z as S winds incr to a sustained
13-17kts. All of Cntrl & SC KS remain VFR altho S winds wl incr
considerably in mrng w/ sustained ~25kts lkly in most areas ~18Z
w/ ~30kt gusts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 132 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Record Highs Wed 11/16: Wichita:77 Russell:74 Salina:77
Chanute:81
Record Highs Thu 11/17: Wichita:78 Russell:81 Salina:80
Chanute:76
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 44 81 57 76 / 0 0 0 10
Hutchinson 42 80 56 75 / 0 0 0 10
Newton 44 79 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
ElDorado 45 79 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 44 80 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 40 82 53 70 / 0 0 0 10
Great Bend 41 81 54 72 / 0 0 0 10
Salina 41 79 56 75 / 0 0 0 10
McPherson 41 79 55 75 / 0 0 0 10
Coffeyville 44 79 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 43 77 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 44 76 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 44 78 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...EPS
CLIMATE...MWM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
925 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Current forecast has a good handle on the weather situation for
the remainder of the night and into tomorrow. Skies will be clear
overnight and winds have become light and variable. Current
forecast overnight lows also looks good. Therefore no update
required tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
A surface trough axis currently analyzed from Minnesota to eastern
Kansas will push slowly eastward into Illinois tonight. With little
to no moisture to work with, am expecting no sensible weather with
the arrival of the trough. As winds become light/variable and skies
remain mostly clear, the potential exists for fog development
overnight. Both the 12z NAM and 16z Rapid Refresh soundings suggest
at least patchy fog...much like what was observed last night. HRRR
continues to favor northern Illinois into northern/central Indiana
for possible widespread dense fog, with only minor visby reductions
further southwest into the KILX CWA. Since the airmass remains
essentially unchanged, will follow a persistence forecast and
include patchy fog across much of central Illinois later tonight.
Once the fog dissipates, mostly sunny and warmer conditions will be
on tap for Wednesday. Surface winds will initially be light and
variable...then will become S/SE by late afternoon. Given very weak
advection and the continued easterly component to the low-level
flow, have remained close to numeric guidance for highs...with
readings topping out in the lower to middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Main forecast concern continues to revolve around the strong storm
system and its affect on our area Friday, followed by much colder
weather for the weekend and into early next week.
Surface high pressure will drift off to our east Wednesday night as
the deep trof and associated surface low pushes into the Plains by
Thursday morning. This should allow an increasing southerly flow to
develop over our area late Wednesday night and especially during the
day on Thursday which should help propel temperatures close to or
above record levels in many areas (See Climate section below).
Winds are expected to gust between 30 and 35 mph out of the south
by afternoon as highs soar into the low to mid 70s with a few
upper 70s possible across parts of extreme west central Illinois.
Those gusty winds should continue Thursday night as the surface
low tracks into northern Iowa by Friday morning.
Initially, moisture transport ahead of the front Friday morning
is not very impressive, but as the front shifts east during the
day the persistent southerly flow will eventually draw moisture
north out of the Gulf of Mexico, with the NAM12 indicating mid 50
dew points into parts of southeast and east central Illinois
Friday afternoon. Still not seeing much surface based instability
with those dew points but it should be interesting to see how
models adjust in the next several runs with low level moisture
transport immediately ahead of the front. Wind shear is not
lacking to say the least with 0-6km bulk shears in the 60-70 kt
range, but that in itself may be a detriment to any sustained
updrafts ahead of the surging cold front Friday afternoon. Still
the threat for some quick moving, low topped storms to develop
between I-55 and I-57 early in the afternoon and then push east
with the front into Indiana by 00z where it will start to catch up
to a more favorable moisture profile. Highest POPs Friday afternoon
will be along and east of the Interstate 57 corridor with likely
POPs indicated, while decreasing rain chances will be the story to
the west behind the cold front.
As the cold front continues to race away from the area Friday
evening, we should see the rain chances move out of the entire
forecast area by late evening before some wrap-around moisture
shifts southeast behind the departing storm system early Saturday
morning. May see some brief sprinkles or flurries early Saturday
morning thanks to the deep cyclonic flow/strong cold advection
across the area with models now trending faster with the surface
low exiting the region and the resulting wrap-around moisture, so
have backed off any mention of the sprinkles or flurries in the
forecast for now. Windy and much colder weather will be the story
for Saturday with highs mainly in the 40s. The combination of the
gusty winds and morning lows around 30 in our northern counties
will yield wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s Saturday
morning! Morning lows on Sunday will drop to between 20 and 25
degrees with wind chills of between 10 and 15 degrees.
Chilly weather will dominate the weather across the area Sunday
through Monday night, although winds will be considerably lighter
than what we will have across the area on Saturday. Afternoon
temperatures Sunday and Monday should be in the low to mid 40s with
temperatures moderating back to around 50 on Tuesday. By Tuesday,
another storm system should take shape to our southwest with precip
breaking out in the warm advection regime to our west and south
Tuesday morning and gradually spreading northeast into our area
during the day Tuesday. Models not showing much, if any agreement
with the speed of the system and timing of precipitation into our
area, with the GFS much quicker in pushing the storm and precip
off to our east Wednesday, while the ECMWF is quite a bit slower
and keeps precipitation going across our area into Thanksgiving
morning. For now, POPs starting to increase from southwest to
northeast Tuesday morning, with even the possibility for a brief
period of a very light rain/snow mixture for a couple of hours
Tuesday morning, with rain chances taking over late morning through
the remainder of the day Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Scattered cirrus will move across the TAF sites this evening and
then become clear later tonight and through tomorrow. A dry front
will push through the area in the morning, but it will not be
bringing any precip or clouds. Winds will become light and
variable tonight and continue through tomorrow as high pressure
builds into the area behind the cold front.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 235 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Record high temperatures for Thursday, Nov 17th...
Peoria........75 degrees set back in 1941
Springfield...75 degrees set back in 1941, 1952
Lincoln.......75 degrees set back in 1941
Galesburg.....75 degrees set back in 1952
Jacksonville..78 degrees set back in 1952
Bloomington...78 degrees set back in 1986
Decatur.......77 degrees set back in 1952
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten
CLIMATE...EJL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
909 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west-southwest through
Friday. A strong cold front will move through Saturday night and
early Sunday. High pressure will build in behind the front for
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 910 PM Tuesday...NC will remain in a dry NW flow between
high pressure to the SW and low pressure vicinity of New England.
Skies have become clear and winds have decoupled inland which will
produce strong radiational cooling and lead to cool low
temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Expect patchy, shallow
fog but conditions are not looking favorable for widespread low
clouds and fog overnight despite the strong radiational cooling as
forecast hydrolapse profiles are not conducive for fog formation
and forecast soundings indicate only very shallow low level
moisture. The NARRE and HRRR aviation guidance indicate widespread
dense fog developing over eastern SC and spreading north to about
Wilmington so will continue to monitor to see if this threat will
spread North into our area but at this point we are not expecting
it to.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday, high pressure will dominate the area on
Wednesday with pleasant high temperatures in the mid/upper 60s
with lower 60s Outer Banks. Another strong shortwave will move
north of the region but clouds should be at a minimum as
downsloping surface flow keeps skies clear.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM Tue...No big changes to the extended forecast. Strong
secondary cold front will lead to some of the coldest air of the
fall season late next week. Kept a very small PoP in the forecast,
mainly northern sections Saturday night and Sunday.
Previous Discussion...
Mainly dry and seasonable through most of the
long term period, then a strong cold front and coldest airmass of
the season arrives over the weekend and early next week.
Wednesday through Friday...Strong shortwave will push through
Wednesday, pushing off the coast Wednesday night and Thursday as
surface high builds over the area. Moisture continues to look very
limited with this feature and given overall model agreement, will
remove sc pop Wed. Low level thickness values and mostly sunny
skies support highs in the 60s Wed and Thu...and overnight lows
ranging from the upper 30s/low 40s inland to mid 40s to around 50
along the coast. Temps will continue to gradually moderate into
Fri as upper ridge builds, with highs in the low 60s to around 70
degrees.
Saturday through Tuesday...Long range model suite in fairly good
agreement with progression of a strong shortwave across the
eastern half of the CONUS this weekend. However, there are still
some timing differences though the consensus seems to be moving
it through the region Saturday evening. Saturday should be a warm
and mostly dry day with ridge amplifying ahead of the shortwave,
thicknesses/guidance suggestive of highs in the mid 60s to low
70s. Did add sc shower late Sat inland, with ECMWF still much
wetter than the GFS...and kept sc pop for most locations Sat
night, though front continues to look moisture starved and not
sure how much precip will make it east of the mountains. Sunday
will see strong CAA develop, strengthening post frontal WNW winds
and high temps only in the 50s. Sunday night will continue
blustery and cold with lows well down into the 30s but wind chills
likely in the 20s. High pressure will build in from the west
Monday and Tuesday as upper level flow gradually becomes more
zonal. Low level thickness values support highs in the 50s Monday
and Tuesday as well...with overnight lows in the 30s inland and
upper 30s to around 40 along the Outer Banks.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wednesday/...
As of 625 PM Tuesday...High confidence in a mainly VFR forecast
through the period as the region remains in a dry NW flow through
Wednesday. Forecast hydrolapse profiles are not conducive for fog
formation and forecast soundings indicate only very shallow
low level moisture. The NARRE and HRRR aviation guidance indicate
widespread dense fog/low ceilings developing over eastern SC
again this evening and spreading north to about Wilmington after
midnight so will continue to monitor to see if this threat will
expand into our TAF zones. Previous forecast indicated a period of
MVFR visibilities late and will continue with this forecast but
none of the aviation guidance is indicating sub VFR conditions
except for the LAMP guidance at PGV. Any fog that develops will
dissipate quickly with VFR conditions to prevail through
Wednesday.
Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Isolated showers possible late Sat and Sat night with a
cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/...
As of 910 PM Tuesday...The NC waters will remain in a light NW
flow through Wednesday between high pressure to the SW and low
pressure vicinity of New England with winds 10 KT or less. Seas
are forecast to remain 2-4 feet through tomorrow.
Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...High pressure will be the dominant feature
through most of the period. W/NW winds 5-15 kt Wed with seas 2-4
feet. Increasing winds Wed night into Thursday behind exiting
shortwave. N/NW 10-20 kt with seas building to 2-5 feet, highest
north of Ocracoke. At this time think conditions will remain below
SCA levels, but a brief period of SCA will be possible north of
Ocracoke Thu. Winds diminish to 5-15 kt Friday with seas 2-4 feet.
Increasing winds ahead of an approaching front Sat...W/NW 5-10 kt
early becoming W 10-15 kt late. Strong CAA develops behind the
front Sat night and Sunday with SCA conditions likely developing.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CTC/CQD
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/CQD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
656 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.UPDATE...
A few light showers are persisting across portions of southeast
Alabama near the border with Florida, but these are only expected
to last a few more hours before dissipating. Extended a slight
chance of light showers for a few more hours in this area and
increased the cloud cover a bit, otherwise no changes to the
previous forecast were made.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 00z Thursday] An area of mid-level clouds currently over
DHN will continue to move southeastward through the CWA overnight.
With the increase in cloud cover, fog development is not likely
but MVFR conditions are possible at DHN with some lower ceilings
possible late tonight. After sunrise, clear skies with a
northwesterly flow will persist over the region.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [222 PM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A shortwave will push through the CWA tonight with a weak front
moving through overnight as well. There have been some showers and
low to mid levels clouds associated with this system over Alabama
this afternoon. As the wave moves through the CWA tonight, will see
a slight increase in cloud coverage, however based on the latest
visible satellite loop there is somewhat of a decreasing trend in
the clouds and thus do not expect cloud coverage over the CWA to be
quite as extensive as it is now over central AL. With the dry air in
place, there is also a dissipating trend with the showers over
central AL. HRRR has been trending toward the showers making it
further east than initially expected and given latest radar trends,
can`t rule out a light shower or sprinkle making it to the northwest
part of the CWA. Given this, have added a slight chance of showers
to mainly our AL counties before 00z tonight. Rainfall amounts would
be minimal.
With some clouds persisting into tonight will see low temperatures a
few degrees warmer than this morning with lows Wednesday morning in
the mid to upper 40s inland and low to mid 50s along the coast.
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The upper trough that brought a slight increase in clouds today
will continue to move off to our east, with light northwesterly
flow on Wednesday and an upper level ridge building over our area
on Thursday. A large area of high pressure at the surface will
also build over our region throughout this period. As a result,
dry conditions will prevail under generally clear skies. Highs
will range from the mid-upper 70s, with lows dipping to the upper
40s inland under ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows will
be in the 50s along the Gulf Coast.
.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...
Dry weather will likely continue across our area through this
period. Deep layer ridging on Friday will be replaced by an upper
level trough and fairly strong cold front moving eastward through
our CWA on Saturday. Due to a lack of moisture across our area,
the front will likely pass through without producing much if any
rainfall, and have kept any mention of rain offshore for now.
However, it is likely that this front will usher in the coolest
temperatures so far this season, with lows forecast to drop into
the mid-upper 30s by Monday morning and highs in the 60s Sunday
and Monday. Extremely dry air will also push into our area behind
the front, ending any chances of rain through early next week as
we continue our prolonged period of dry conditions.
.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds will gradually become easterly later this
week, generally remaining around 10 knots. Seas will remain
around 2 feet or less until Friday and then increase as a strong
cold front moves through our area early in the weekend. Seas could
increase to 4 to 6 feet on Saturday night, with locally higher
waves possible offshore as northerly winds could increase to 20 to
25 knots.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue through the rest of the week. Minimum
relative humidity values will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s range
away from the coast each afternoon. Winds appear light and below
critical thresholds for red flag criteria.
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall is expected for the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 48 77 47 79 49 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 55 74 55 75 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 48 76 47 79 47 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 46 76 46 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 46 76 46 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 47 75 48 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 54 73 55 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...DVD/Chaney
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Lahr
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
747 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.UPDATE...
00Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows an active upper level
pattern across the CONUS this evening. Strong northern stream flow
arrives over the northern California/Oregon coast around the
southern periphery of longwave troughing moving ashore into
BC/Pacific northwest states. This flow then ridges up over the
inter-mountain west into the southern Canadian Rockies before
diving back south and east into longwave troughing covering the
entire eastern third of the nation. This longwave trough over the
eastern CONUS is rather complex with several lobes of energy
embedded within the larger scale synoptic flow. One such shortwaveis
approaching the Florida peninsula from the NW this evening. The
strong PVA and associated cold pool aloft has been enough to
support a few clusters of thunderstorms dropping southward the
past 4-8 hours across Alabama. Although some of this energy and
certainly the colder temps aloft are expected to swing across the
northern Florida peninsula overnight...there simply does not
appear to be enough moisture in the column this far south to
support any thunder into the northern peninsula. Another band of
sct-bkn clouds is likely to swing across the I-10 corridor
overnight...but as of now...not forecasting any showers. That
being said...NWP sampling of the atmosphere is never exactly
perfect. Can I completely rule out that a very brief shower or two
will not surprise us and swing across the NE Gulf/Nature Coast
during the pre-dawn hours? No...never say never in
meteorology...but the potential seems low enough to keep out of
forecast at this point. However will be monitoring things closely
over the next several hours.
Otherwise...a few-sct clouds around 10-15Kft are pivoting across
the central Peninsula head of the main trough...but are fairly
steadily dropping to the southeast. Should see the Tampa
Bay/Sarasota region clear out in the next couple of hours...and
eventually clearing out completely for the far southern zones
down toward Fort Myers.
The main mid/upper trough axis will pivot across the Peninsula
during Wednesday morning...with one final weaker shortwave aloft
crossing over later in the day. Neither of these will have enough
moisture to work with to produce anything but maybe a few clouds
at times...so the forecast remains benign through Wednesday. In
fact...the deep layer Qvector divergence/subsidence is very strong
over the peninsula behind the initial shortwave...and is likely
going to be enough to keep our skies mostly clear to clear.
Well-defined mid/upper ridging then builds overhead for Thursday
and Friday...with a very dry column aloft. Essential zero chances
for rain Thursday and Friday...with PW values well below 1" across
the entire region.
Have a great rest of your evening everyone!
&&
.AVIATION (16/00Z through 17/00Z)...
VFR condition prevail through the duration of the TAF period.
Few-Sct clouds exist from TPA/PIE southward between 10-15KFT this
evening...and these clouds will continue to push southward and
diminish overnight. Mostly clear skies for all terminals through
the daylight hours Wednesday. Light generally northerly flow
overnight increases slightly to between 7-10knots during the late
morning and afternoon Wednesday.
&&
FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values are forecast to dip below 35 percent
across a large portion of the region Wednesday afternoon. Many
inland areas may see between 3-5 hours of critical relative
humidity. As of now...the only zone that runs a threat of reaching
red flag criteria is interior Manatee County...where around 4
hours of critical RH and ERC values over 37 are expected.
Elsewhere...despite the dry conditions...ERC values are forecast
below 37 and wind will be generally light. If similar conditions
are expected with the next forecast cycle early Wednesday
morning...then a red flag warning may become necessary for
interior Manatee County Wednesday afternoon.
Relative humidity is forecast to slowly increase Thursday through
Saturday..with no additional threat of red flag conditions. Post
frontal conditions on Sunday will find much drier/cooler air
filter down the peninsula, increasing fire weather sensitivity Sun
into early next week.
&&
.Prev Discussion... /issued Issued by National Weather
Service Melbourne FL/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...Approaching shortwave will
act to shunt frontal boundary and lingering mid level cloudiness
southward into this evening. Weak surface high pressure will build
in behind the front with relatively light N-NE winds tonight and
Wed. Atmosphere will be generally dry and stable with skies
becoming mostly clear overnight, followed by plenty of sunshine on
Wednesday. Overnight min temps falling into lower 50s much of the
area...but expect upper 40s in the normally colder rural northern
interior sections. A bit warmer for mins south with mid/upper 50s
and upper 50s/near 60 immediate coast. High temperatures on
Wednesday in the mid-upper 70s much of the area...some spots
reaching around 80 in the southern sections.
LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night-Tuesday)...Exiting upper troughing to
the east as mid-level ridging builds from the central CONUS to the
eastern seaboard and across the Florida peninsula thru Fri night.
The upper ridging flattens out across the region Sat thru the
remainder of the extended as another strong upper trough moves thru
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes over the weekend. Closer towards the
surface, high pressure over the southeast U.S. and Deep South
expands across the eastern seaboard thru Fri. A cold front will push
thru WCFL Sat night with northerly winds into Mon before veering
northeast/east late Mon into Tue. Moisture and dynamics will be
lacking and will continue with a dry forecast over the period.
Temperatures near to slightly above climo thru Sat, then much cooler
and drier air areawide behind the front Sun into Tue as high
pressure builds back into the area. Expect highs/lows on the order
of several degrees or more below normal Sun thru Mon night.
MARINE...Tonight-Wed...High pressure building in to the north
with winds generally from N-NE in over the northern Gulf of
Mexico through Wed with winds 10-15 knots or less...seas 1-2 feet
near shore and up to 3 feet well offshore.
Wed night-Sun...High pressure will influence the weather pattern
Fri, then a fairly strong cold front will push thru the area Sat
night and usher in gusty north winds and much cooler/drier air.
Wind speeds will generally hold at around 15 knots or less through
Saturday, then increase Saturday night with approach/passage of a
cold front. Cautionary to advisory level winds and seas will be
possible Saturday night and into early Monday before high pressure
builds back in early next week with the pressure gradient relaxing
and seas on a subsiding trend.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 58 77 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 58 79 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 53 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 59 77 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 51 77 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 61 76 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Mroczka
Previous Discussion...SEDLOCK/GLITTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
441 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
As a storm system continues to lift across New England,
some additional showers are expected through the morning hours
today, mainly for northern parts of the area. Clouds will gradually
break for some sunshine by this afternoon with milder temperatures.
Dry weather with above normal temperatures is expected for Thursday
through Saturday, before much colder weather arrives for the end of
the weekend into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 441 AM EST...Surface low pressure is located close to
Boston across eastern Massachusetts and it will continue to slowly
track northward across New England. Meanwhile, a closed off 500
hpa low is situated directly over eastern New York and this
feature will also continue to slowly track east-northeast today
into New England.
Regional mosaic radar continues to show some light rain
showers/drizzle over eastern New York, with some deformation rain
across central New York. During the morning hours, these showers
will continue to impact the region, mainly for areas north and
west of Albany. The 3km HRRR shows the best chance for seeing
showers will be before 10 AM, as the best lift/moisture will be
shifting away from the area after that time. Any showers that do
occur this morning look to be fairly light and most areas won`t
see any more than an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall.
It looks fairly cloudy through the morning hours, with some
patches of mist/drizzle/fog as well. However, some drier air
(already seen on the water vapor imagery over the eastern Great
Lakes and upper Ohio River Valley) will start to work its way
into the area by this afternoon, which should allow for some
breaks in the cloud cover, especially for valley areas.
Highs today will range from the mid 40s over northern and high
terrain areas to the mid 50s in southern valley areas. These
temperatures are slightly above normal for mid-November.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly dry and quiet weather is expected through the entire short
term period with above normal temperatures.
The upper level trough will continue to depart tonight with
gradually clearing skies. Cloud cover looks to hang on the longest
across the western Adirondacks. Lows look to be in the mid 30s to
low 40s.
The upper level trough will be cutting off just east of the region
over the western Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, upper level ridging
will be building into our area from the west with a large area of
surface high pressure. This should allow for a partly to mostly
sunny sky on Thursday with above-normal temperatures. Highs look
to reach the upper 40s to upper 50s across the entire area. Clear
skies and light winds will allow temps to fall back into the lower
30s for Thursday night.
The ridge axis will be centered over the eastern seaboard on
Friday with even higher heights and warmer temps aloft. 850 hpa
temps will be 11-13 degrees C on Friday, which is 1-3 STD above
normal. Mixing won`t be overly deep due to the weak November sun,
but still, much of the area will see highs near 60 with full
sunshine. Continued clear skies/light winds look to allow for
another seasonably chilly night on Friday night with lows in the
30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Guidance continues to show an amplified longwave pattern across
the CONUS through the period. There is agreement an upper level
trough becomes negatively tilted as it approaches the region
with a low cutting off over/in the vicinity of the region over
the weekend. The differences in the details with how this evolves
will have a large impact on the local forecast especially the
positioning of the storm. What is certain it will turn much colder
as we end into Thanksgiving week after another bout of above
normal/mild temperatures. Have taken the lead for the forecast from
the Weather Prediction Center which notes the operational ECMWF has
become an outlier solution and lacks support from its ensemble members.
Ridging is expected to give way to an approaching low pressure system
Saturday. Chances for showers will be on the increase Saturday as the
system occludes as its cold front crosses the region. Much colder air
will be ushered into the region the passage of the front.
The forecast gets complicated as a vigorous short wave rotates about
the base of the deep trough causing it to become negatively tilted and
resulting in the development of an upper low with a stacked system
by the end of the weekend. With this will come unsettled cold weather
with rain and snow showers. In addition, the flow of the cold air across
the relatively warm water of the Great Lakes will result in lake
enhancement of the showers. At this time, accumulating snowfall is
possible across a portion of the forecast area mainly for areas to
the northwest of the Capital District particularly the western Adirondacks.
The storm is anticipated to move northward into the Canadian Maritimes
Monday with cold and blustery conditions across the region along with
rain/snow showers in cyclonic flow. Higher pressure should build in
for Tuesday.
Note there is much uncertainty in the forecast and changes to it are
to be expected.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An area of low pressure will continue to slowly move northward across
New England and eventually reach the Canadian Maritimes late Wednesday
evening.
Have a deep moist airmass in place across the region with mainly
IFR conditions. Expect these conditions to persist through the early
morning hours with periods of drizzle. A gradual improvement is
expected as the low moves off to our north and east during the day.
MVFR conditions are expected to linger through the morning at KALB,
KGFL and KPSF with VFR conditions developing in the afternoon. VFR
conditions are expected to develop in the morning at KPOU. VFR
conditions are then expected through the evening, however clouds
will be on the increase from the west as a short wave moves through
the upper trough over the region.
Light winds from the southwest to north overnight with a west wind
of 7 to 10 knots during the day Wednesday.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Much of the area saw a wetting rainfall yesterday. A few lingering
showers are possible this morning, mainly for northern areas. Some
clearing is expected by this afternoon, when RH values will fall
to 50 to 70 percent across the area. The lowest values will be
across the mid-Hudson Valley. West winds will be 5 to 15 MPH
today.
RH values look to recover to near 100 percent tonight with light
winds. Dry weather is expected the next few days. RH values will
fall to 45 to 65 percent on Thursday with northwest winds of 5 to
15 MPH. RH values will be lower on Friday, but winds will be
lighter as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The departing storm brought a widespread rainfall to the region.
Many areas saw in excess of one inch, with a few spots totaling over
two inches. Due to recent dry conditions, this rainfall only
allowed for minor rises on rivers and streams across the region.
Although a few lingering showers are expected this morning, additional
rainfall will be generally a tenth of an inch or less. Dry weather
is then expected to return for this evening through Saturday. As
a result, rivers and streams will recede and then be fairly steady
through the rest of the week. Some additional precipitation is
expected Sunday into Monday as another complex storm system
impacts the region.
The US Drought Monitor continues to have much of the area in the
D1 (Moderate Drought) to D2 (Severe Drought) categories. This
recent rainfall was very helpful, but probably not enough to
significantly change these classifications this week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
356 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
...Updated Short Term, Long Term, Fire Weather Sections...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Today we will see the first signs of the approaching storm system by
way of increased southerly winds as the MSLP gradient increases. The
inherited wind grids look pretty good, and we will continue to use
the highest guidance for the official wind grids, given the fact
that much of the area is now in a moderate drought which supports
deeper mixing and thus better momentum transfer. Peak winds this
afternoon should reach around 25-30 mph with gusts in the 35-40 mph
range. Areas across far west central KS closer to the Colorado
border will see weaker winds given the proximity to the lee trough
axis and thus a generally weaker gradient.
Official temperatures for today will closely follow the very warm
HRRR model, which has actually done very well in our very dry/warm
regime since early Fall. Given this, we have increased MaxT to 85 at
Dodge City and 86-87 right along the Oklahoma border from Liberal to
Ashland. Dewpoint grids were lowered in collaboration with
neighboring offices to add the much drier HRRR influence over the
SuperBlend guidance. This will affect fire weather, which will be
expanded on in the Fire Weather section.
The fairly tight pressure gradient will continue through the night
tonight with 15-20 mph winds much of the night generally east of a
Liberal to Dodge City to La Crosse line. This will keep the boundary
layer mixed enough to prevent a substantial drop in temperature.
Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s east of this line also. From
Syracuse to Scott City, where winds will be weaker very near the
trough axis, temperatures should bottom out in the lower to mid
40s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Thursday and Friday garnered much of the interest and focus for this
forecast. The anticipated storm strength and track still look good,
which meant that there are no huge surprises or radical forecast
changes. All the models are coming into line now with the surface
low coming out from east-central Colorado into far west central KS
by late afternoon Thursday. A massive synoptic dry intrusion air
stream with incredible downward vertical motion and downslope will
push into far southwest Kansas by afternoon. Intense gradient
through the depth of the lower-mid troposphere will result in very
strong winds. We are most concerned about very far southwest Kansas
the most regarding winds -- with sustained winds likely approaching
40 mph at times in the Johnson, Elkhart, and Liberal areas. This
would include gusts well over 50 mph at times for a few hours. The
main question is how far northeast this winds will extend. The more
aggressive GFS and even both WRF-ARW and NMM suggest the dry
intrusion airstream winds will reach as far northeast as about
Jetmore.
The next question is then precipitation. The track of the low will
put the brunt of precipitation well north into western and central
Nebraska. Nevertheless, the wrap around trajectories could bring
light accumulating precip down to as far south as Syracuse to Scott
City to Wakeeney-Hays. A brief period of wet snow is a distinct
possibility. The progressive nature of the storm system will prevent
a long enough duration of meaningful precipitation, however. The
coldest air of the year will then plunge into the western Kansas
region by Friday. Highs Friday will be radically cooler than what we
have seen, with updated forecast highs for Friday in the mid to
upper 40s. A 1035mb surface high will become centered over western
Kansas in the wake of the storm Friday Night/Saturday morning. Much
of the guidance has widespread lows of lower to mid 20s for lows,
which certainly makes sense given light winds, clear skies and a
very dry airmass.
There wasn`t much time to delve into the periods beyond Saturday,
but another storm system will be on the horizon for early to mid
next week. This storm, as it looks now, will take a more southern
track, which would put southwestern Kansas in a much better position
for widespread accumulating precipitation. It is far too early to
get into any more detail than that at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
As a significant storm takes shape across the Great Basin region
tomorrow, the pressure gradient will tighten in response across
western Kansas. South winds will increase to midday/afternoon
values of 20 to 24 knots sustained with gusts in the lower 30s.
The atmosphere will remain dry, so VFR conditions will continue.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 aM CST Mon Nov 14 2016
Significant fire weather concerns both today and Thursday. The Red
Flag Warning will be expanded northward to I-70 given concerns of
drier air pushing in than many of the models suggest. The HRRR and
its dry/warm bias compared to all other models is actually most
favored in this moderate drought regime we are currently in.
A Fire Weather Watch will also be issued for Thursday. Much stronger
winds are forecast for far southwest Kansas, to the tune of 35 to 40
mph with gusts to around 55 mph. This combined with afternoon
relative humidity in the 10-15 percent range translates to Extremely
Critical conditions -- and Storm Prediction Center has issued such
an outlook for Thursday covering portions of far southwest Kansas
from Johnson to Elkhart to Hugoton.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 53 75 33 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 85 47 72 31 / 0 0 0 20
EHA 85 49 71 29 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 86 52 76 31 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 82 50 68 35 / 0 0 0 20
P28 82 56 77 40 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 7 PM CST /6
PM MST/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-
084>088.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for KSZ061>064-074>078-084>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
414 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A gradual warming trend is slated for the remainder of the week.
A strong cold front will cross the region on Saturday with only
a very slight chance for showers. Some of the coldest air of
the season will follow for the remainder of the weekend.
Freezing temperatures are possible Sunday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Morning fog, patches of dense
especially across the ILM SC CWA, will quickly burn off by mid-
morning. Progged soundings and latest 11-3.9 micron IR imagery
both illustrate no stratus this morning. Just shallow ground
based fog within the sfc based inversion which has been aided
by the decent rad cooling conditions.
A nearly full latitude and amplified upper trof lies across
eastern Canada and the eastern U.S. this morning. This upper
trof axis nearly overhead this morning, will push off the
Carolina coasts and offshore during this period. Flow aloft
will become NW to NNW later today thru tonight. This will help
divert the smoke from the Appalachian wildfires, away from the
ILM CWA, ie. keeping the smoke west and south of the FA by the
end of this period.
Weak sfc ridging today from the Gulf coast will give way to a
weak and dry sfc boundary that drops southward across the ILM
CWA late tonight. Not much in the way of clouds associated with
it but rather and mainly a wind direction change. Aloft, will
see some drying as the well amplified upper ridging across the
central U.S. progresses eastward toward the FA. Max/min temps
this period will be at or a few degrees above normal.
Have indicated fog across the FA toward daybreak Thu but not as
robust like the past few days. Latest hourly bufr soundings late
tonight indicate only a modest sfc based inversion at best. In
addition, winds just off the deck will run from the N-NNE at 10
to 20 kt which may mix some drier air aloft down to the sfc.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Ridging sfc and aloft will dominate the
sensible weather this period. With the amplified upper ridge
axis remaining west of the ILM CWA this period and flow aloft
having a downslope trajectory within it, skies will for the most
part remain clear at night and sunny during the day. With the
upper ridge axis coming in close proximity late Friday, cirrus
may ride over it`s axis and across portions of the the FA. Not
enough to detour from a clear/mostly clear Fri night though.
Temperatures this period will run 1 to possibly 2 categories
above normal. Expect widespread 70s, especially on Fri.
Overnight lows in the 40s to around 50 along the immediate
coast. With the airmass much drier than in the beginning of this
week, the threat for early morning widespread fog, including
dense, will be quite low.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...Strong cold front will cross the Carolinas
on Saturday, moving offshore Saturday night. This occurs beneath a
deep and negatively tilting upper low, which will skirt just north
of the local area. Still some uncertainty into whether there will be
enough forcing and pre-frontal moisture return to create any
showers, but will maintain the inherited SCHC for the northern zones
late on Saturday. More notably will be the sharp temperature drop
that occurs behind this FROPA. While highs on Saturday will climb
into the 70s, 5-10 degrees above climo, temps Sun-Mon will fall to
values more typical for January than mid-November. The combination
of 850mb temps falling below 0 and strong CAA may allow for
widespread freezing temperatures, especially Sunday night. Temps
will begin to recover on Tuesday as the upper low pulls away from
New England, but will remain below climo through the end of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 06Z...High confidence in IFR across the SC terminals tonight,
with VFR/MVFR predominant in NC.
Continued weak pressure gradient as high pressure edges eastward has
allowed winds to decouple this morning. This has allowed winds to
decouple to calm, and fog has developed across SC. Very little of
the guidance is modeling this well, but both UPS fog tool and HRRR
have fog overspreading the region through the remainder of the
overnight, with isolated dense fog possible. The best chance for IFR
will be across SC where stratus took most of Tuesday to burn off,
and hence very little drying occurred so near-surface moisture is
higher. At LBT/ILM confidence is lower, and have opted to keep any
mention of IFR to a TEMPO group where vsbys may fluctuate. At FLO,
landing mins may be exceeded most of the overnight once again.
Fog/Stratus will again be slow to burn off after sunrise, but VFR is
expected by late morning at all terminals as NW winds of 5-10 kts
advect drier air into the region. VFR will then persist through the
rest of the valid period.
Extended Outlook...VFR. A cold front may bring a few showers
Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Benign conditions to prevail this
period with wind directions the problem child due to a
disorganized sfc pressure pattern. Models suggest weak ridging
to extend across the area waters from the Gulf of Mexico today.
For tonight, a weak sfc boundary drops southward across the area
waters before dissipating. No pcpn or clouds associated with
it, just a wind direction change. The sfc pg remains loose,
resulting in wind speeds around 10 kt or less. Significant seas
will be around 2 ft with an ESE 9 second period ground swell
dominating the seas spectrum.
SHORT TERM /Thursday THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...This will be a top 10, 2 day forecast,
for this Fall season that will be in the mariner`s favor or
interest. The area waters will be under the control of sfc and
upper ridging. The well offshore and high seas cutoff Low
depicted by the models, will meander over these Atlantic waters
during this period, staying east of the 70 degree longitude
line. This will slow the eastward progression of the upper and
sfc ridging located across the Central U.S. at the start of this
period. The sfc high`s elongated and expansive center will lie
just inland from the Carolina coasts by Friday. A slightly
tightened sfc pg at the start of this period will yield around
10 kt, occasionally 15 kt across the ILM NC waters early. Winds
will become 10 kt or less thruout Thu night thru Friday night.
Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft at the start, becoming 2 ft
or less Thu thru Friday. For the most part, an ESE 9 second
period ground swell will dominate the local waters with a small
wind chop on top. Latest Wavewatch3 and Swan models indicate
that an organized ground swell from the cutoff Low could affect
the local waters during Fri by introducing an ENE pseudo swell
at 6 to 8 second periods. It could add 1 to possibly 2 ft to the
total seas. But for now, will keep the sig. seas around 2 ft
until more confidence with this potential swell is realized.
LONG TERM /sATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...A cold front approaching from the NW
Saturday will cause winds to increase from the W/SW up to 15-20
kts by Saturday evening. The FROPA will occur late Saturday,
accompanied by a wind shift to the NW and a steady increase in
speed to 20-25 kts. These winds will then persist much of
Sunday. The increasing winds will drive wave heights from 2-3 ft
early Saturday, to 4-6 ft Saturday night and then slowly fall
to 3-5 ft late Sunday thanks to the persistent offshore wind
component. An SCA will likely be needed beginning late Saturday
and persist through the wknd.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...JDW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
357 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Weak cold front pushing SE through central IL early this morning to
bring yet another shift in generally light winds...from SW to NW for
late morning. The front will reach the Indiana state line by mid
morning. As a surface high pressure ridge crosses the area early in
the afternoon winds will be quite light. As a cold front approaches
from the central Plains...SE winds will begin tonight and increase
to around 10 mph overnight. As weak warm advection begins
today...highs should increase a few degrees...ranging from around 63
along/north of I-74 to the mid and upper 60s from Springfield to
Lawrenceville southwestward. Lows should range from the mid to upper
40s to some lower 50s in west central IL tonight.
Predominantly clear skies expected for the next 24 hours...other
than patchy fog across the area this morning and a layer of high
cloud from afternoon through tonight. So far...thin fog noted in obs
from Champaign to Effingham eastward...with dewpoint depressions
generally around 5 degrees to the west near the frontal boundary.
Farther behind the front...dewpoint depressions fall off to a few
degrees or less and HRRR model suggesting another area of fog to
develop. As a result...will continue patchy fog developing across
the area by sunrise and continuing until around 9 a.m.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Models remain in good agreement with the timing and the track of the
next storm system for Friday, and the temperatures ahead of it
inching up into the 70s for Thursday. Cold air moving in behind the
boundary bringing a chilly weekend.
The warm air from the building ridge over the southwest surges into
the region...with a well above normal max temp expected on Thursday,
with 850 mb temps in the 16-17C range. The storm system developing
over the Plains will move northeast and into the Upper Midwest on
Friday, dragging a cold front through the region on Friday. Plenty
of warm air in the region should provide some instability, but the
significant lack of moisture in the boundary layer is resulting in
some negligible CAPEs and other indices. Pretty decent 0-6km shear
in place for Friday afternoon should any storms materialize. Warmer
max temps possible in the eastern half of ILX would collide a better
chance for thunderstorms developing as the cold front moves through
closer to peak heating. The region is not in a convective outlook
per SPC...likely because of the lack of low level moisture and the
general mid level ridging over the Gulf Coast blocking any
significant moisture advection with the warmer air from the SW.
Behind the cold front, plenty of cold air will put the chill back
into the region for the weekend...and some flurries possible across
the northern tier of Illinois early Saturday. A solid freeze
expected Sat night/Sun morning and again on Monday morning as lows
drop into the 20s. Next storm system moving across the country
expected to develop Tuesday/Wednesday time frame across the Midwest.
ECMWF and GFS still with some timing differences, and with the
collision of the system with the cold air in place for the
region...watching precip types closely at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Light fog still appears possible during the early morning hours.
Vis at TAF sites has not started to decrease yet, but some lower
visibilities are being seen in southeast IL and temp/dwpt spreads
have decreased at some of the sites. So have kept the light fog at
all sites with lowest of 2sm at CMI. Skies should remain clear
remainder of the night and through tomorrow, then looks like more
cirrus moves into the area late afternoon into evening. Winds will
be light and variable and then become southeasterly tomorrow
evening as the ridge moves east of the area.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 356 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Record high temperatures for Thursday, Nov 17th...
Peoria........75 degrees set back in 1941
Springfield...75 degrees set back in 1941, 1952
Lincoln.......75 degrees set back in 1941
Galesburg.....75 degrees set back in 1952
Jacksonville..78 degrees set back in 1952
Bloomington...78 degrees set back in 1986
Decatur.......77 degrees set back in 1952
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten
CLIMATE...EJL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
500 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 459 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from
the srn plains to Manitoba and a trough from wrn Hudson Bay through
nrn Ontario into the cntrl Great Lakes. At the surface, a ridge from
IA into MN was building eastward resulting in light winds over the
wrn cwa and diminishing wnw winds over the east where the clouds
were slowly departing. The clearing skies and leftover low level
moisture has allowed areas of fog to develop over the wrn third of
Upper Michigan.
Expect that daytime heating will be enough to burn off the low
clouds and fog over the west by mid to late morning. Otherwise, with
increasing WAA and mixing heights to around 925-900 mb, temps should
climb to around 50. increasing mid clouds and south winds will keep
min temps around 40 inland to the mid 40s near the Great Lakes.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016
Main emphasis for the long term will be on strong storm system
expected this weekend. Many areas in Upper Michigan will see first
accumulating snow with this system with several inches of lake
enhanced snow possible over especially the higher terrain of western
Upper Michigan late Fri night/Sat morning into Sat night. Strong
winds will also affect most of the area and it will turn sharply
colder. Due to the snow and winds, seems likely that some winter
weather headlines will be needed, but still too far out in time to
issue those. Have already highlighted the storm in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook and will now start to cover more through social
media.
Start of long term features upper ridging aloft across the central
Conus while strong troughing that will help to form the storm digs
across the western Conus. Lee cyclogenesis takes place Wed night
into Thu then as the shortwave trough slides across the central
plains the sfc low is expected to deepen blo 1000mb while reaching
Iowa into southern Minnesota by daybreak on Fri. Warm with well
above normal temps into the 50s both Thu and Fri. Stronger winds on
Fri will make it feel a little cooler though though not near as cold
as it will feel for the upcoming weekend. Though majority of precip
Thu night into Fri in the form of rain will remain northwest of
Upper Michigan in right entrance region of jet across northern
Ontario and where mid level frontogenesis is maximized, H925-h7
moisture advection and weak lift along h85 inverted trough should
lead to light rain into northwest half of cwa. Low-level jet and
theta-e advection could also bring isold-scattered showers into
scntrl and east cwa by Fri aftn. SI/s nearing zero could result in a
small chance of tsra. Too low of chance to include attm though.
Forecast models continue to shift around with track of the low Fri
into Sat. As of right now though the main three models of GFS, ECMWF
and GEM are in real good agreement come Fri night into Sat.
Unfortunately though given that the main shortwave trough leading to
the low remains off the west coast until Wed morning, there will
likely be more wobbling in the sfc low track over the next couple
days. For now, following consensus of the models brings the low
across northern Wisconsin or western Upper Michigan by Fri evening,
then across eastern Upper Michigan or eastern Lk Superior by
daybreak on Sat. What is interesting is this track remains on the
western edge of the various SREF and GEFS ensembles for sfc low,
indicating there could be some room for the sfc low to still track
east. Have to wait on that one as it would result in better chance
of more widespread snow Fri Night and would allow colder air to
arrive sooner.
Again staying with the consensus for now, once the low moves over
eastern Upper Michigan and Lk Superior overnight on Fri night,
expect cold air (h85 temps down to -10c overnight Fri night) to
quickly charge over western Lk Superior and western Upper Michigan.
Even though widespread cold conveyor belt snow will be north of Lk
Superior, deep moisture and lift tied to upper trough, sharp
cyclonic nw low-level flow with delta t/s over 17c will lead to
moderate to possibly heavy lake enhanced snow. GFS forecast
soundings are impressive with inversions up to 10kft and decent
amount of moist layer within the dendritic snow growth zone. Delta
t/s become even more favorable later on Sat into Sat night with
values over 20c. Deeper moisture at h7 begins to pull out on Sat
night as upper level trough axis refocuses toward mid Atlantic
states. Even with diminishing upper level forcing, likely will see
light to moderate snow continue over cntrl and eastern cwa Sat night
into Sun with the amount of overwater instability forecast and since
inversions remain well above 5kft. Low-level flow stays somewhat
convergent as lake induced troughing persists with h85 temps down to
-14c. Lowering inversions should finally lead to diminishing trend
to the lake effect later Sun into Sun night. Most areas of Upper
Michigan will see first measurable snow with this system. Several
inches of snow are possible across higher terrain areas of western
Upper Michigan.
Winds will be a potential hazard with this storm as well. As the low
wraps up and passes east of Lk Superior late Fri night into Sat
morning, northwest winds will quickly ramp up across Lk Superior and
eventually all of Upper Michigan. Soundings from GFS and 925mb and
850mb winds from ECMWF and GEM indidicate mixed layer winds over 40
mph across northern and eastern Upper Michigan on Sat with gusts
possibly reaching 60 mph near the shoreline of Lk Superior Sat into
Sat evening. Winds this strong could topple trees and lead to power
outages. Also, with waves building to 15-20 feet on portions of Lk
Superior, could see beach erosion and we will eventually need a
lakeshore flood advisory or maybe even a warning with the higher
water levels seen in the last couple years. Strength of system and
sharpness of temp gradient with the system point to widespread advy
level wind gusts even at inland points and near Lk Michigan. Cold
conditions will be another item with this storm as temps will be
falling through the day on Sat and should stay in the low to mid 30s
on Sun. Wind chill readings will fall into the teens on Sat and
remain there into Sun. As high drifts across western Upper Michigan
on Sun night it could end up quite chilly with readings as low as
lower teens. Overall this storm could have quite a widespread impact
over our region. Even though it falls on a weekend not affecting
school or work commutes, it could be higher impact than it would be
otherwise since it is occurring the first full weekend of the fire
arm rifle deer hunting season.
Beyond the weekend rest of the long term is quiet with slight
warming trend as high pressure ridge is main weather feature. Beyond
the long term, will have to keep eye on another storm system that
could bring some light snow across the western Great Lakes late Wed
into Thanksgiving.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016
In the wake of a cold front that has passed, diminishing winds and
radiational cooling will probably lead to some fog/IFR conditions
developing. At this point, it appears KIWD has the best chance of
seeing IFR conditions at times overnight, potentially even LIFR. At
KSAW, MVFR cigs should scatter out later in the night with a light
downslope wind probably preventing fog/stratus. Drier air mass over
the area associated with passing high pres ridge will result in VFR
conditions/light winds today after any morning fog/stratus
dissipates.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 459 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016
...Strong storm system to move through late this week...
South winds will increase to 30 knots tonight over the ern half of
the lake as the pres gradient tightens between the departing ridge
and a trough into MN. The next chance for gales, especially over the
western lake, is expected by late Thursday night into Friday as
northeast winds increase in response to a deep low pressure system
approaching from the plains. While uncertainty remains with the
track of that low...high end north to northwesterly gales are
expected over most of Lake Superior, and storm force winds to 50
knots are possible, Friday night into early Sunday as the low exits
the Upper Great Lakes. A Marine Weather Statement was issued to
provide additional information on this storm system.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland Oregon
816 PM PST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Off and on showers will continue through Wednesday with
snow levels lowering below Cascades passes this afternoon and
evening. Showers should decrease Thursday with temperatures dropping
to some of the coldest readings so far this fall by Friday morning.
While Friday should end up dry, expect wet, but mild conditions to
return for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...Water Vapor satellite imagery
shows a longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest spanning west over
the NE Pacific. Unstable conditions generated by cold air aloft are
generating scattered showers across the region and over the waters.
Scattered showers to continue overnight. RAP and NAM both show MUCAPE
values of 500 to 800 J/kg and LI values around -1 to -4 over the
waters overnight, so am leaving a slight chance of thunderstorms over
the waters. With temperatures cooling over land, however, the threat
for thunderstorms should be over.
Colder air has spread across the region, and we are observing snow
accumulating down to around 3800 ft in the Cascades this evening.
Snow levels will continue to lower to around 3000-3500 ft by
Wednesday morning. We`re expecting around 3-7 inches total, with
higher amounts above 6000 ft overnight. We appear right on track with
the current winter weather advisory for the Cascades.
Tides today caused some nuisance ponding in spots along the Coast. As
tides should be weaker tomorrow, don`t expect any additional issues
along the Coast.
Shortwave ridging moves across the region late Thursday and Friday,
which means drier weather and areas of valley fog away from the
Columbia River Gorge, which will see increasing easterly winds. There
is a good chance that many locations will see their coldest
temperatures so far this fall Friday morning, with a good chance for
frost in more rural areas away from the Columbia Gorge. -McCoy
.LONG TERM...Friday night through Monday...No changes. Previous
discussion follows...Models are in decent agreement that a low
pressure system will move into the eastern Pacific and bring a mild
and wet pattern in general to the region. There are enough
differences between models that timing breaks in the wet weather
remains a lost cause so few significant changes were made to the
forecast. /Neuman
&&
.AVIATION...VFR across much of the area as of 04Z, except areas of
MVFR likely in the higher terrain due to orographic shower
activity. Air mass looks to be well mixed to maintain VFR at all
TAF sites through Wed afternoon. Showers continue Wed, but not as
numerous and favoring higher terrain where periods of MVFR can be
expected. Snow levels have fallen to around 3500 feet this
evening, with brief periods of IFR vis likely in the Cascades
through Wed morning.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR at the terminal and vicinity at 04Z and
should continue through Wed afternoon. There is the potential for
local MVFR cigs around sunrise in some of the sheltered valleys
and also 18Z Wed through 03Z Thu in heavier showers. Weishaar
&&
.MARINE...Wind speeds slow to diminish this evening. Enough
instability remains this evening to produce isolated gusts to 25
kt. The small craft advisory for wind has already expired. Despite
these isolated 25 kt gusts, will not re-issue as the air mass will
gradually stabilize tonight and models show decreasing boundary
layer wind speeds. Wind speeds remain 15 kt or less Wed through
Thu evening, then start to ramp up from the southeast late Thu
night and Fri. Possible gale force wind beginning over the outer
waters late Fri afternoon.
Seas running a foot or two higher than guidance this evening. Buoy
050 was at 17 ft at 03Z. Seas slowly ease over the next 24 to 36
hours, but will remain above 10 ft. The east to southeast wind
late in the week will drive seas below 10 ft. However, seas may
rise to the mid-teens late Fri night and Sat if gales develop as
forecast. Weishaar
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM PST Wednesday for Cascades
in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM PST Wednesday for South
Washington Cascades.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 PM PST Thursday
for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR
out 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar until 4 PM
PST Wednesday.
&&
$$
Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
www.twitter.com/NWSPortland
This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
335 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Please see Fire Weather discussion below for specific info on that
topic.
Wednesday morning is starting off cool with readings in the
middle to upper 30s as an area of sfc high pressure drifts
eastward towards southern Iowa. The calm winds this morning are
expected to veer to the south and increase as the incoming upper
wave induces the sfc trough to deepen over the western high plains
through tonight. By noon, southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph
sustained are likely with occasional gusts to 30 mph. Forecast
soundings have some of the dry air aloft mixing down towards the
sfc while the strongest winds remain above the inversion layer at
900 mb by late afternoon. This will need to be monitored during
the late afternoon as there is a slight potential for temps to be
a few degrees warmer, allowing the RH values to fall into the
upper 20s. For now, forecast sided closer to the drier bias from
the RAP and HRRR which are still holding minimum humidity values
in the lower 30s across north central Kansas, where the driest
fuels reside. Elsewhere humidity values fall to the middle and
upper 30 percent range. Fire danger concerns are elevated, however
are not dry enough to warrant headlines at this time. Record highs
are expected today with the strong warm advection anticipated.
Most of the MOS guidance is pointing to upper 70s, perhaps a few
80 degree readings today.
Southerly winds remain strong overnight between 15 and 20 mph
sustained as the sfc low deepens and stretches eastward over the
central plains. By 12Z Thursday, the approaching cold front`s
location is just northwest of the CWA, accompanied by increasing
high clouds. The increasing cloudiness and persistent mixing
overnight results in near record warm lows once again in the upper
50s to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Please see Fire Weather discussion below for specific info on that
topic.
Thursday will be very windy as surface low pressure rapidly deepens
in western Kansas in response to the incoming strong upper trough
and associated jet streak. The heart of the negatively-tilted
upper trough will travel from SE Colorado to NE Nebraska by
sunrise on Friday, deepening along the way. This should track the
surface low roughly across north central KS with the cold front
surging across the forecast area between 9 PM and 3 AM. In advance
of the system on Thursday, the pressure gradient will strengthen
considerably with wind speeds at the top of the mixed layer around
50 kts and strong unidirectional flow through much of the
troposphere. This suggests a likelihood for wind gusts greater
than 40 mph and potential for some wind gusts in the 50 mph range
during the daytime hours. Gusts will continue into the evening and
then could see a couple hours of 40+ mph northwesterly gusts
immediately behind the cold front. Gusty winds will then continue
into Friday, mainly in the 30-40 mph range. Temperatures on
Thursday will remain quite warm, flirting with records.
Regarding precipitation with this storm system, surface dewpoints
are still expected to be on the low end while a strong cap will be
in place across the area. This will limit convective potential,
but the overall strength of the forcing with this system continues
to point to at least a chance for convective showers or even a few
storms Thursday night in eastern KS. Widespread activity looks
unlikely and strong storms look improbable given the strong cap
and virtually no instability. A second area of precipitation will
be associated with the upper level low with very strong vertical
motion aloft. This will occur on the edge of a mid level dry slot
across the local forecast area, and there is a chance that this
will keep the precip just to the northwest. However, given a bit
of uncertainty in the exact storm track along with the relative
proximity of the forcing, have maintained chance pops over north
central KS. At this time it looks like any precip would probably
occur just prior to temperatures becoming cold enough for
snowflakes to reach the surface, but even still can not completely
rule out a brief period of rain/snow mix in north central KS.
It will be much colder for Friday through the weekend but there
will be substantial warm advection and upper height rises by late
Sunday into Monday with highs expected to warm well back into the
50s by Monday into next week.
There is strong model agreement in the next storm system crossing
the Plains by Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with general
agreement that it will produce widespread precipitation across the
region. By this time, there should be sufficient warm air to keep
the precip type as all rain, but some forecast soundings do
suggest low-end potential of temperature profiles cooling enough
by Wednesday morning to at least pay attention to winter precip
potential.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
VFR conditions expected through much of the period. LLWS increases
quickly tomorrow evening despite surface winds not decoupling.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Today
Forecast soundings have some of the dry air aloft mixing down
towards the sfc while the strongest winds remain above the inversion
layer at 900 mb by late afternoon. This will need to be monitored
during the late afternoon as there is a slight potential for temps
to be a few degrees warmer, allowing the RH values to fall into the
upper 20s. For now, forecast sided closer to the drier bias from the
RAP and HRRR which are still holding minimum humidity values in the
lower 30s across north central Kansas, where the driest fuels
reside. Elsewhere humidity values fall to the middle and upper 30
percent range. Fire danger concerns are elevated at this time,
however are not dry enough to warrant headlines at this time.
Thursday - Friday
The main story on Thursday will be wind with southwest winds
gusting in the 40 to 45 mph range and at least a low end potential
for a few stronger gusts. Currently the MinRH forecast for the
afternoon ranges from 36-42 percent, but dry air at the top of a
very turbulent mixing layer lends at least some suggestion that
the RH could be a bit lower through mid afternoon. A very strong
cold front will pass through Concordia roughly around 9 PM,
Manhattan close to midnight, and Topeka around 3 AM. This will
provide a sharp shift to northwesterly winds that will likely be
in the 20-30 mph range through Friday with stronger gusts
approaching 35-40 mph. There may also be a brief period 1-2 hours
behind the front during which winds could gust 40-45 mph with a
relative minimum in RH...even though it will occur during the
overnight hours.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Current Record High Temperatures
----------------------------------------------------------
November 16 November 17
Topeka 79 76
(year) (1963) (1999)
Concordia 72 76
(year) (1999, 1958, 1954) (1943)
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...67
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch/Prieto
CLIMATE...Prieto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
942 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will extend into the area from the west through
Friday with above normal temps. A dry cold front will come
through Saturday, reinforcing dry conditions with cooler temps for
the weekend and into next week. Smoke from wildfires in the
southern Appalachians will continue to affect the region through
much of the period.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast area will be situated in between an upper trough
axis off the coast and an upper ridge over the central US. This
will promote northwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area.
Surface high pressure over the central Gulf will gradually shift
northeastward into the region. The airmass will remain relatively
dry with precipitable water values around half an inch. Smoke from
the southern Appalachian wildfires will continue to be the main
forecast issue. Northwesterly low level winds will allow the smoke
to filter into the forecast area with hazy skies expected. May see
slight improvement during the afternoon due to mixing. Downsloping
expected to promote above normal high temperatures today, in the
lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions to continue as surface high pushes eastward and
into the region. A general NW low level flow expected to provide
continued smoky conditions across the area into tonight, with
visibilities further reduced by late night/morning fog. Surface
high center will remain in the region Thursday with light winds,
and smoke still possibly trapped in the area. Fair and dry through
the period, with above normal max temps, but near normal min temps
due to dry conditions and appearance of good radiational cooling
conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will be over the
Southeast Friday. Expect above normal afternoon temperatures, light
winds and dry weather. For this weekend, the models continue to
indicate a cold front moving through the region Saturday.
Precipitation still appears to be rather unlikely with relatively
dry air over the region. West winds during the day will help dry
out some of the moisture ahead of the front as it moves eastward.
The best chance of showers will be in the northern and western
portions of the forecast area where there is better moisture.
Mainly slight chance pops or less for the area ahead of the front.
Expect breezy conditions behind the front with a moderately
strong cold advection pattern. Freezing temperatures will also be
possible Monday and Tuesday mornings. The pressure gradient will
begin to relax early next week as surface high pressure moves over
the area and the upper trough moves off the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low level northwesterly flow will continue to allow smoke to
filter into the forecast area today. Expect MVFR visibilities in
smoke to persist at all of the terminals through much of the day
based on the HRRR model. A return to IFR visibilities in smoke
and fog may occur again tonight.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Reduced visibilities in smoke/fog could
continue through Thursday. Lower VSBYS would be expected late
night/morning, with some improvement in the afternoon due to mixing.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
...updated aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Today we will see the first signs of the approaching storm system by
way of increased southerly winds as the MSLP gradient increases. The
inherited wind grids look pretty good, and we will continue to use
the highest guidance for the official wind grids, given the fact
that much of the area is now in a moderate drought which supports
deeper mixing and thus better momentum transfer. Peak winds this
afternoon should reach around 25-30 mph with gusts in the 35-40 mph
range. Areas across far west central KS closer to the Colorado
border will see weaker winds given the proximity to the lee trough
axis and thus a generally weaker gradient.
Official temperatures for today will closely follow the very warm
HRRR model, which has actually done very well in our very dry/warm
regime since early Fall. Given this, we have increased MaxT to 85 at
Dodge City and 86-87 right along the Oklahoma border from Liberal to
Ashland. Dewpoint grids were lowered in collaboration with
neighboring offices to add the much drier HRRR influence over the
SuperBlend guidance. This will affect fire weather, which will be
expanded on in the Fire Weather section.
The fairly tight pressure gradient will continue through the night
tonight with 15-20 mph winds much of the night generally east of a
Liberal to Dodge City to La Crosse line. This will keep the boundary
layer mixed enough to prevent a substantial drop in temperature.
Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s east of this line also. From
Syracuse to Scott City, where winds will be weaker very near the
trough axis, temperatures should bottom out in the lower to mid
40s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Thursday and Friday garnered much of the interest and focus for this
forecast. The anticipated storm strength and track still look good,
which meant that there are no huge surprises or radical forecast
changes. All the models are coming into line now with the surface
low coming out from east-central Colorado into far west central KS
by late afternoon Thursday. A massive synoptic dry intrusion air
stream with incredible downward vertical motion and downslope will
push into far southwest Kansas by afternoon. Intense gradient
through the depth of the lower-mid troposphere will result in very
strong winds. We are most concerned about very far southwest Kansas
the most regarding winds -- with sustained winds likely approaching
40 mph at times in the Johnson, Elkhart, and Liberal areas. This
would include gusts well over 50 mph at times for a few hours. The
main question is how far northeast this winds will extend. The more
aggressive GFS and even both WRF-ARW and NMM suggest the dry
intrusion airstream winds will reach as far northeast as about
Jetmore.
The next question is then precipitation. The track of the low will
put the brunt of precipitation well north into western and central
Nebraska. Nevertheless, the wrap around trajectories could bring
light accumulating precip down to as far south as Syracuse to Scott
City to Wakeeney-Hays. A brief period of wet snow is a distinct
possibility. The progressive nature of the storm system will prevent
a long enough duration of meaningful precipitation, however. The
coldest air of the year will then plunge into the western Kansas
region by Friday. Highs Friday will be radically cooler than what we
have seen, with updated forecast highs for Friday in the mid to
upper 40s. A 1035mb surface high will become centered over western
Kansas in the wake of the storm Friday Night/Saturday morning. Much
of the guidance has widespread lows of lower to mid 20s for lows,
which certainly makes sense given light winds, clear skies and a
very dry airmass.
There wasn`t much time to delve into the periods beyond Saturday,
but another storm system will be on the horizon for early to mid
next week. This storm, as it looks now, will take a more southern
track, which would put southwestern Kansas in a much better position
for widespread accumulating precipitation. It is far too early to
get into any more detail than that at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
VFR is expected through the TAF pd. Winds will increase mid morning
and peak in the 20-35 kt range during the afternoon. Winds will decrease
a bit during the evening. Overnight LLWS will be possible as well.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 aM CST Mon Nov 14 2016
Significant fire weather concerns both today and Thursday. The Red
Flag Warning will be expanded northward to I-70 given concerns of
drier air pushing in than many of the models suggest. The HRRR and
its dry/warm bias compared to all other models is actually most
favored in this moderate drought regime we are currently in.
A Fire Weather Watch will also be issued for Thursday. Much stronger
winds are forecast for far southwest Kansas, to the tune of 35 to 40
mph with gusts to around 55 mph. This combined with afternoon
relative humidity in the 10-15 percent range translates to Extremely
Critical conditions -- and Storm Prediction Center has issued such
an outlook for Thursday covering portions of far southwest Kansas
from Johnson to Elkhart to Hugoton.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 53 75 33 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 85 47 72 31 / 0 0 0 20
EHA 85 49 71 29 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 86 52 76 31 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 82 50 68 35 / 0 0 0 20
P28 82 56 77 40 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 7 PM CST /6
PM MST/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-
084>088.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for KSZ061>064-074>078-084>088.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
553 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 406 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
A light low level NW flow downstream of a high pressure ridge
axis over NW MO into western IA was so far keeping significant fog
from developing over the forecast area early this morning. Patchy
dense fog has been limited to WI, while visibilities were in the 3
to 6 mile range over much of east central IA and northern IL.
Satellite imagery showed mainly clear skies over the region
outside some high clouds topping the upper level ridge axis
centered over the central plains. Temperatures ranged from the mid
30s in sheltered locations in east central IA to 50 in far SE IA
in the MS river valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Initial challenge is the fog potential for this morning, then
attention turns to how warm it will get today as warm advection
commences following the passage of the surface ridge axis.
The surface ridge axis is expected to quickly migrate east, passing
over the forecast area roughly between 12z and 15z this morning.
This is when the HRRR and RAP continue to depict fog, potentially
dense, expanding S-SW across NW IL into east central IA as
developing weak north to northeast level winds advect the low level
moisture responsible the current fog in southern WI. This is shown
to linger until 16z or 17z this morning. With satellite imagery
suggesting a lack of high clouds, it will be a close call between
the how fast the morning sunshine can erode the any developing or
advecting fog. For now, will stay on the conservative side
considering 1), the lesser extent of fog tonight compared to last
night at this time, and 2) how much the models appear to be too
pessimistic on visibilities and extent of the fog where it is
occurring over southern WI. Will mention patchy fog only over the
northeast, dissipating by 10 am and watch trends closely for
updates.
The rest of today will be another very mild day with be near full
sunshine under a developing strong warm air advection regime aloft
as the plains upper ridge spreads eastward. The amount of warming
will be limited by the southeast winds at the surface that will tap
into only slightly warmer air than yesterday as mixing reaches only
925 mb to perhaps 900 mb. Highs should thus reach around 60 north to
the mid 60s in the south, which is on the warm side of most model
guidance.
Tonight, the developing system in the plains will lead to a
tightening pressure gradient over the area. Southeast to south
surface winds of 10 to 15 mph through much of the night, along with
increasing high level clouds, will result in a very mild night for
mid November, with lows from the upper 40s northeast to the mid 50s
south.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Overview: After near record highs on Thursday, a pattern change
to cooler weather is likely by this weekend continuing into next
week.
Thursday...
As mentioned, near record highs are forecast on
Thursday into the upper 60s to middle 70s (see Climate Section for
the daily records at select cities).
Models have a sfc low and trough intensifying over Kansas into
western Iowa during the day. Since the warm front is setting up
well to the North and West, E Iowa/NW Illinois will be in the
warm sector of this system with 850mb temps surging to the 16-18 C
range or 2-2.5 standard deviations above the climatological mean.
Winds: The very warm temps will be accompanied by breezy
conditions. The strongest winds will occur south of I-80. In this
area, NAM/GFS BUFKIT soundings show mixing into 35 kt winds.
Downward momentum transfer should yield sfc gusts of 30-35 mph.
Friday and Saturday...
Most significant weather impacts will be strong winds and much
cooler temps by Friday night/Saturday. Forecast highs on Saturday
are in the upper 30s north to lower 40s south.
Precipitation:
The sfc low is forecast to move into NW Wisconsin on Friday
bringing heavy precip to parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin;
however, significant precipitation is not expected for E Iowa/NW
Illinois because the low- level jet is veered to the WSW causing
less than optimal WV transport along the cold front. The southern
and eastern CWA stand the best chance for showers and isolated
storms Friday morning into the early afternoon before a mature
dry-slot punches into the region from the SW as it wraps into the
center of the low. Many locations may receive either no rain or
less than a tenth of an inch.
On the backside of the low, wrap around snow showers or flurries
are likely, especially across the NE half of the area with the
Quad Cities on the edge. Areas that have snow showers could get a
very light dusting on grassy or elevated surfaces.
Winds:
As the sfc low reaches the Northern Great lakes, a strong
pressure gradient will reside to the W/SW. Cold air
advection/isentropic downglide should foster deep dry adiabatic
profiles extending from the sfc to above 850mb. Like last night,
trended above SuperBlend to increase sustained winds to 20-25 mph
and gusts to 30-40 mph. GFS/NAM BUFKIT forecast soundings display
a small amount of sfc-based CAPE, increasing confidence in the
potential for occasional gusts around 40 mph Friday Evening into
Saturday morning due to efficient momentum mix down.
Sunday and Monday: High pressure brings quiet but cool weather
with highs in the 30s and 40s, and lows in the 20s/upper teens.
Tuesday and Wednesday: ECMWF/GFS now in better agreement on timing
of next trough to impact the Midwest, but differ on thermal
profiles and QPF. The ECMWF is colder with 850mb temps sub 0 c
across the north, thus the possibility for some frozen precip.
The GFS is warm enough for mostly rain. Mentioned rain/snow mix
across the northern third of the CWA, about all the detail we can
provide 6-7 days out. Uttech
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Forecast confidence is low in the near term with the expected
onset of fog early this morning. Have initially gone out with
conditions deteriorating to MVFR at most sites between 12z and
16z. There will be the potential for periods of IFR and possibly
LIFR at CID, MLI and DBQ due to low visibilities before 15z. VFR
conditions are then likely from midday through overnight with
winds veering from light east to southeast and increasing to 10 to
15 kts overnight.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Record Highs for November 17...
Moline.........74 in 1941
Cedar Rapids...73 in 1941
Dubuque........71 in 1941
Burlington.....75* in 1952
*Record is listed as 86 in 1899 but is thought to be incorrect
due to faulty equipment
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sheets
SHORT TERM...Sheets
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Sheets
CLIMATE...Uttech
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
959 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A gradual warming trend for the remainder of the week. A strong
cold front will cross the region on Saturday with only a very
slight chance for showers in southeast North Carolina. Some of
the coldest air of the season will follow for the remainder of
the weekend. Freezing temperatures are possible Sunday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM Wednesday...The morning fog continues to burn off
this morning and this will give way to sunny skies with some
smokey/hazy conditions expected across most of the area from the
fires to our west. mainly in the Georgetown and Williamsburg
areas. Maximum temperatures are expected to reach the lower 70s.
Overnight, the models are not showing the fog as dense but with
the residual flow being light at the surface there is a good
probability that we will again see fog again overnight. The 13
UTC HRRR 18 hour forecast is showing visibilities lowering at 07
utc.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Ridging sfc and aloft will dominate the
sensible weather this period. With the amplified upper ridge
axis remaining west of the ILM CWA this period and flow aloft
having a downslope trajectory within it, skies will for the most
part remain clear at night and sunny during the day. With the
upper ridge axis coming in close proximity late Friday, cirrus
may ride over it`s axis and across portions of the the FA. Not
enough to detour from a clear/mostly clear Fri night though.
Temperatures this period will run 1 to possibly 2 categories
above normal. Expect widespread 70s, especially on Fri.
Overnight lows in the 40s to around 50 along the immediate
coast. With the airmass much drier than in the beginning of this
week, the threat for early morning widespread fog, including
dense, will be quite low.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...Strong cold front will cross the Carolinas
on Saturday, moving offshore Saturday night. This occurs beneath a
deep and negatively tilting upper low, which will skirt just north
of the local area. Still some uncertainty into whether there will be
enough forcing and pre-frontal moisture return to create any
showers, but will maintain the inherited SCHC for the northern zones
late on Saturday. More notably will be the sharp temperature drop
that occurs behind this FROPA. While highs on Saturday will climb
into the 70s, 5-10 degrees above climo, temps Sun-Mon will fall to
values more typical for January than mid-November. The combination
of 850mb temps falling below 0 and strong CAA may allow for
widespread freezing temperatures, especially Sunday night. Temps
will begin to recover on Tuesday as the upper low pulls away from
New England, but will remain below climo through the end of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 06Z...High confidence in IFR across the SC terminals tonight,
with VFR/MVFR predominant in NC.
Continued weak pressure gradient as high pressure edges eastward has
allowed winds to decouple this morning. This has allowed winds to
decouple to calm, and fog has developed across SC. Very little of
the guidance is modeling this well, but both UPS fog tool and HRRR
have fog overspreading the region through the remainder of the
overnight, with isolated dense fog possible. The best chance for IFR
will be across SC where stratus took most of Tuesday to burn off,
and hence very little drying occurred so near-surface moisture is
higher. At LBT/ILM confidence is lower, and have opted to keep any
mention of IFR to a TEMPO group where vsbys may fluctuate. At FLO,
landing mins may be exceeded most of the overnight once again.
Fog/Stratus will again be slow to burn off after sunrise, but VFR is
expected by late morning at all terminals as NW winds of 5-10 kts
advect drier air into the region. VFR will then persist through the
rest of the valid period.
Extended Outlook...VFR. A cold front may bring a few showers
Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM Wednesday...Light winds from the north to west at
10 knots are less will continue over the waters with seas around
2 feet and continue over the waters. There still is an 8 second
East-Southeast swell.
SHORT TERM /Thursday THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...This will be a top 10, 2 day forecast,
for this Fall season that will be in the mariner`s favor or
interest. The area waters will be under the control of sfc and
upper ridging. The well offshore and high seas cutoff Low
depicted by the models, will meander over these Atlantic waters
during this period, staying east of the 70 degree longitude
line. This will slow the eastward progression of the upper and
sfc ridging located across the Central U.S. at the start of this
period. The sfc high`s elongated and expansive center will lie
just inland from the Carolina coasts by Friday. A slightly
tightened sfc pg at the start of this period will yield around
10 kt, occasionally 15 kt across the ILM NC waters early. Winds
will become 10 kt or less thruout Thu night thru Friday night.
Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft at the start, becoming 2 ft
or less Thu thru Friday. For the most part, an ESE 9 second
period ground swell will dominate the local waters with a small
wind chop on top. Latest Wavewatch3 and Swan models indicate
that an organized ground swell from the cutoff Low could affect
the local waters during Fri by introducing an ENE pseudo swell
at 6 to 8 second periods. It could add 1 to possibly 2 ft to the
total seas. But for now, will keep the sig. seas around 2 ft
until more confidence with this potential swell is realized.
LONG TERM /sATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...A cold front approaching from the NW
Saturday will cause winds to increase from the W/SW up to 15-20
kts by Saturday evening. The FROPA will occur late Saturday,
accompanied by a wind shift to the NW and a steady increase in
speed to 20-25 kts. These winds will then persist much of
Sunday. The increasing winds will drive wave heights from 2-3 ft
early Saturday, to 4-6 ft Saturday night and then slowly fall
to 3-5 ft late Sunday thanks to the persistent offshore wind
component. An SCA will likely be needed beginning late Saturday
and persist through the wknd.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
934 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Weak boundary has pushed into southeast Illinois and will exit the
forecast area soon, but has little to show for it as skies are
largely clear aside from a few high clouds. Temperatures still on
track to reach the lower to mid 60s and little change was needed
to the forecast, aside from removal of the morning fog.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Weak cold front pushing SE through central IL early this morning to
bring yet another shift in generally light winds...from SW to NW for
late morning. The front will reach the Indiana state line by mid
morning. As a surface high pressure ridge crosses the area early in
the afternoon winds will be quite light. As a cold front approaches
from the central Plains...SE winds will begin tonight and increase
to around 10 mph overnight. As weak warm advection begins
today...highs should increase a few degrees...ranging from around 63
along/north of I-74 to the mid and upper 60s from Springfield to
Lawrenceville southwestward. Lows should range from the mid to upper
40s to some lower 50s in west central IL tonight.
Predominantly clear skies expected for the next 24 hours...other
than patchy fog across the area this morning and a layer of high
cloud from afternoon through tonight. So far...thin fog noted in obs
from Champaign to Effingham eastward...with dewpoint depressions
generally around 5 degrees to the west near the frontal boundary.
Farther behind the front...dewpoint depressions fall off to a few
degrees or less and HRRR model suggesting another area of fog to
develop. As a result...will continue patchy fog developing across
the area by sunrise and continuing until around 9 a.m.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Models remain in good agreement with the timing and the track of the
next storm system for Friday, and the temperatures ahead of it
inching up into the 70s for Thursday. Cold air moving in behind the
boundary bringing a chilly weekend.
The warm air from the building ridge over the southwest surges into
the region...with a well above normal max temp expected on Thursday,
with 850 mb temps in the 16-17C range. The storm system developing
over the Plains will move northeast and into the Upper Midwest on
Friday, dragging a cold front through the region on Friday. Plenty
of warm air in the region should provide some instability, but the
significant lack of moisture in the boundary layer is resulting in
some negligible CAPEs and other indices. Pretty decent 0-6km shear
in place for Friday afternoon should any storms materialize. Warmer
max temps possible in the eastern half of ILX would collide a better
chance for thunderstorms developing as the cold front moves through
closer to peak heating. The region is not in a convective outlook
per SPC...likely because of the lack of low level moisture and the
general mid level ridging over the Gulf Coast blocking any
significant moisture advection with the warmer air from the SW.
Behind the cold front, plenty of cold air will put the chill back
into the region for the weekend...and some flurries possible across
the northern tier of Illinois early Saturday. A solid freeze
expected Sat night/Sun morning and again on Monday morning as lows
drop into the 20s. Next storm system moving across the country
expected to develop Tuesday/Wednesday time frame across the Midwest.
ECMWF and GFS still with some timing differences, and with the
collision of the system with the cold air in place for the
region...watching precip types closely at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Light fog creating MVFR vsby remains possible at central IL
terminals for the first few hours of the TAF period however most
likely development will be along I-74 terminals KPIA-KBMI-KCMI
where low dewpoint depressions and nearby fog noted in
observations. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected next 24 hours.
Winds light and highly variable until 00Z...becoming SE 10-12
kts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 356 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Record high temperatures for Thursday, Nov 17th...
Peoria........75 degrees set back in 1941
Springfield...75 degrees set back in 1941, 1952
Lincoln.......75 degrees set back in 1941
Galesburg.....75 degrees set back in 1952
Jacksonville..78 degrees set back in 1952
Bloomington...78 degrees set back in 1986
Decatur.......77 degrees set back in 1952
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton
CLIMATE...EJL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1006 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will pass through the region today. High
pressure returns to the area Thursday and Friday. A cold front
will move through the region Saturday into Saturday night.
Low pressure will rapidly intensify to our northeast on Sunday
while Canadian high pressure approaches from the northwest.
Canadian high pressure will build overhead early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Patches of clouds are moving across the area this morning ahead of
an upper level trough. While skies may cloud up at times, some
breaks of sun are also expected. As surface trough and vort max
aloft nears this afternoon, some of the showers currently over
western PA may approach northern parts of the area. Have added
isolated showers for this area, with model consensus showing
Baltimore area most likely to see a shower. HRRR suggests higher
POPs/greater area affected, but 0.36 PWAT on 12Z IAD sounding will
be difficult to overcome with limited low level moisture
advection. Have made little adjustment to high temperature
forecast of upper 50s to mid 60s, but if cloud cover is persistent
enough in any one area, it could be cooler.
Clearing skies are expected tonight as the trough moves to the
east. Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging (aloft and at sfc) builds across the area Thursday through
Friday. This will allow for pleasant weather as airmass continues
to modify...with mostly sunny skies and unseasonably warm
weather. Highs Thursday in L/M60s (5-10F above climo norms)...even
warmer Friday with highs in M60s-L70s (10-15F above climo norms)
as upper level ridge amplifies over the area. Slightly elevated
dewpoints should keep low temperatures AOA freezing...and could
allow for some patchy early morning fog.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A potent cold front will pass through Saturday into Saturday
night...bringing the chance for showers. The boundary will move
off to the east overnight Saturday while the low pressure
associated with the boundary rapidly intensifies off to our north
and east. A cutoff upper-level low is also expected to develop to
our north and east overnight Saturday and it will linger through
Sunday and possibly even into Monday.
Certainty as to exactly where the upper-level low will cutoff is
low and that will have an impact on the forecast. If the upper-
level low is farther off to the north and east...then dry
conditions will prevail. However...if it cuts off farther south
and west toward our area...then rain or snow showers cannot be
ruled out. Will lean toward continuity overnight Saturday through
Monday...which does allow for the chance of a few rain/snow
showers mainly across the northern half of the CWA.
However...accumulating snow is most likely to remain across
locations along and west of the Allegheny front where upslope
winds will add to the lift. Significant snow accumulations are
possible for locations along and west of the Allegheny Front.
The main story during this time will be the windy and
cold conditions that will develop behind the cold front. Max temps
will remain in the 40s for both Sunday and Monday for most
locations with min temps in 20s to lower 30s each night. Also...it
may turn out quite windy later Saturday through Sunday...and
possibly even into Monday due to a tight gradient between surface
low pressure to the northeast and Canadian High pressure
approaching from the north and west.
The high should build overhead Tuesday...bringing dry and chilly
conditions. However...it should not be as windy.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR cigs at times today as upper trough moves across the area.
There could be an isolated shower this afternoon, especially
Baltimore area, but will leave out of TAFs for now due to low
probability of impact. Outside of early morning fog at the
typically favored sites (e.g., MRB,CHO) VFR conditions expected to
prevail through Friday night as high pressure remains in control
of the weather.
A potent cold front will pass through the terminals Saturday.
Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the front later Saturday
through Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Elevated wind gusts just below SCA criteria are possible this
afternoon, but based on hi-res models, there will be a more
definitive surge of NW winds behind a trough tonight into Thursday
morning. While winds may be sporadic and only marginally to SCA
levels, there seems to be enough evidence to issue a SCA for the
wider waterways. Winds diminish Thursday afternoon and become
light Friday as high pressure builds across the area.
A potent cold front will pass through the waters later Saturday.
Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the front Saturday night
through Sunday and possibly through Monday. A Gale Warning will
likely be needed during this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies increase to between a half to three quarters of
foot through today. This will lead to Annapolis reaching action
stage for this evening`s high tide cycle. If current trends
continue of running a little above forecast, then a Coastal Flood
Advisory may be needed. Otherwise, no tidal issues expected over
the next few tide cycles.
Strong northwest winds behind a cold front Saturday night through
Monday will likely cause blowout tides.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EST
Thursday for ANZ531>533-537-539>541.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
Thursday for ANZ534-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/MSE
MARINE...BJL/ADS/MSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/MSE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
508 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 459 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from
the srn plains to Manitoba and a trough from wrn Hudson Bay through
nrn Ontario into the cntrl Great Lakes. At the surface, a ridge from
IA into MN was building eastward resulting in light winds over the
wrn cwa and diminishing wnw winds over the east where the clouds
were slowly departing. The clearing skies and leftover low level
moisture has allowed areas of fog to develop over the wrn third of
Upper Michigan.
Expect that daytime heating will be enough to burn off the low
clouds and fog over the west by mid to late morning. Otherwise, with
increasing WAA and mixing heights to around 925-900 mb, temps should
climb to around 50. increasing mid clouds and south winds will keep
min temps around 40 inland to the mid 40s near the Great Lakes.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 508 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016
Focus in the long term will be on strong storm system expected this
weekend. Many areas in Upper Michigan will see first accumulating
snow with this system with several inches of lake enhanced snow
possible over the higher terrain of western and north central Upper
Michigan beginning late Fri night in the west and spreading east
into North Central counties east of MQT Sat into Sat night. Strong
NW winds will also affect most of the area and it will turn sharply
colder. Due to the snow and winds, seems likely that some winter
weather headlines will be needed, but still too far out in time to
issue those. Will continue to highlight the storm in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook and in social media.
Beginning Thu...Amplified mid-upper ridge axis shifts east in
advance of the strong storm system beginning to lift ne from the
Four Corners region of the CONUS. Weak ridging and anticyclonic flow
aloft should maintain dry conditions on Thu although sw flow aloft
will bring increasing mid-upper level moisture into region for mid-
high clouds. Expect above normal temps with highs in the 50s.
Thu night into Fri....Increasing 700 mb fgen and deep layer q-vector
convergence setting up over western counties along strengthening
baroclinic/deformation zone associated with advancing and deepening
storm system from the sw could allow some light rain to develop over
western counties Thu night. Expect rain chances to increase into Fri
over the western counties with increasing upper diffluence...waa and
dpva ahead of strong leading shortwave and associated deepening sfc
low. As storm system lifts ne into western Upper Mi Fri afternoon,
expect forcing/dynamics with system to work east through the rest of
the cwa warranting chc pops for rain over the east half of the
forecast area in the afternoon.
Fri night into Sat...Latest 00Z GFS has now trended much quicker
with storm system and is remarkably similar with track/timing to 12Z
ECMWF although the 12z ECMWF was about 5 mb deeper with low than the
00z GFS. The latest 00z ECMWF interestingly enough shows a similar
track/strength with system than the 00z GFS but is now about 6 hours
slower. Of course, the timing of the system will be crucial for
determining timing of ptype change from rain to snow Fri night in
the western counties. Suspect there will continue to be some model
variability until strong shortwave energy from this system moves
onshore of the Northern CA Coast later this morning and can be
better sampled by models. For now will lean toward a 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF model blend solution given the good agreement between these
runs. This model blend indicates the sfc low moving into western
Upper Mi late Fri afternoon and reaching Huron Bay by 00z Sat. The
storm system slows down a bit on Fri night with mid-upper trough
taking on a more negative tilt as stronger shortwave tracks through
Central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Both the 00z GFS and 00z/12z ECMWF
indicate sfc low tracking slowly into far eastern Lake Superior by
12z Sat. Given quicker timing trend of the 00z GFS expect a quicker
arrival of much colder air in nw flow on backside of system and
subsequently quicker changeover to lake enhanced snow beginning late
Fri evening in the western cwa and late Fri night/Sat morning over
the eastern cwa. Models indicate h85 temps dropping as cold as -10
to 12c late Fri night over the western portion of the cwa and Sat
morning over the east half. Also with more progressive model trend,
drier air/subsidence moves in quicker w/ridging from the nw which
could really shut off the significant snow accumulation by late Sat
morning/early afternoon in the west and by late Sat evening for
counties east of MQT. During period of enhancement for lake snow
showers, GFS BUFR model soundings indicate around .3 inch water
equivalent pcpn for western counties and .4 inch over eastern
counties. With best forcing/omega during enhancement period
initially below favorable dendritic snow growth region, snow ratio
initially may be lowered, which overall would probably lead to
average snow ratios during the event closer to 10/12:1. This would
equate to closer to three maybe four inches of snow west during best
enhancement period Fri night/early Sat and probably not much more
than 3 inches over eastern counties Sat into Sat evening as diurnal
heating could offset caa on Sat and lead to some initial melting of
snow. In other words at this point, snow amounts look to be mostly
advisory criteria during event, and possibly low end advisory at
that.
Sat night into Sun...With pronounced ridging/subsidence and
associated drier air moving in beneath subsidence inversion quickly
from the west, expect an abrupt cut-off in lake enhanced snow east
by late evening/early overnight with maybe only 1-2 inches
additional acccumulation over eastern counties, and very little
additional accumulation in nw snow belts of the western counties.
Along with the potential for the first widespread accumulating snow
of the season, the other big part of the story with this storm
system will be the wind and cold. With the influx of cold air
beginning in the far west Fri night and spreading east on Sat, the
corresponding increase in instability will also increase mixing to
allow for strong and gusty nw winds to develop. GFS soundings
indicate the potential for a period of storm force winds over the
east half and north central portions of Lake Superior from mainly
Sat morning into early afternoon. High wind warning criteria gusts
to near 60 mph may also be possible from over the tip of the
Keweenaw Peninsula to Lake Superior shoreline areas east of
Marquette over roughly the same time period. A period of wind
advisory gusts to 45 seem possible across a good portion of the rest
of the cwa on Sat. The combination of the snow, falling temps and
strong winds will be a rude awakening after the above normal fall
temps experienced thus far, and headlines will likely be needed
across much of the region. Also expect wind chills to plummet
through the teens over the west half Sat afternoon and across the
entire U.P. on Sat night.
Sun night into Mon morning...Lingering lake effect snow and nw winds
will continue to diminish through this period as gradient slackens
on backside of departed storm system and sfc ridge axis continues to
move in from the west. Lake effect snow will tend to hang on longer
over the east half of the cwa due to slower diminishment of nw winds
and longer fetch across the eastern half of Lake Superior, so as a
result there could be some additional very minor snow accumulations.
Late Mon into Tue...This period should be mostly dry as models
indicate strong mid-upper ridging building in from the west with
airmass gradually moderating and high temps on Tue rebounding into
the 35 to 40F range from the near to sub freezing temps over the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2016
In the wake of a cold front that has passed, diminishing winds and
radiational cooling will probably lead to some fog/IFR conditions
developing. At this point, it appears KIWD has the best chance of
seeing IFR conditions at times overnight, potentially even LIFR. At
KSAW, MVFR cigs should scatter out later in the night with a light
downslope wind probably preventing fog/stratus. Drier air mass over
the area associated with passing high pres ridge will result in VFR
conditions/light winds today after any morning fog/stratus
dissipates.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 459 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016
...Strong storm system to move through late this week...
South winds will increase to 30 knots tonight over the ern half of
the lake as the pres gradient tightens between the departing ridge
and a trough into MN. The next chance for gales, especially over the
western lake, is expected by late Thursday night into Friday as
northeast winds increase in response to a deep low pressure system
approaching from the plains. While uncertainty remains with the
track of that low...high end north to northwesterly gales are
expected over most of Lake Superior, and storm force winds to 50
knots are possible, Friday night into early Sunday as the low exits
the Upper Great Lakes. A Marine Weather Statement was issued to
provide additional information on this storm system.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...JLB
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Please see Fire Weather discussion below for specific info on that
topic.
Wednesday morning is starting off cool with readings in the
middle to upper 30s as an area of sfc high pressure drifts
eastward towards southern Iowa. The calm winds this morning are
expected to veer to the south and increase as the incoming upper
wave induces the sfc trough to deepen over the western high plains
through tonight. By noon, southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph
sustained are likely with occasional gusts to 30 mph. Forecast
soundings have some of the dry air aloft mixing down towards the
sfc while the strongest winds remain above the inversion layer at
900 mb by late afternoon. This will need to be monitored during
the late afternoon as there is a slight potential for temps to be
a few degrees warmer, allowing the RH values to fall into the
upper 20s. For now, forecast sided closer to the drier bias from
the RAP and HRRR which are still holding minimum humidity values
in the lower 30s across north central Kansas, where the driest
fuels reside. Elsewhere humidity values fall to the middle and
upper 30 percent range. Fire danger concerns are elevated, however
are not dry enough to warrant headlines at this time. Record highs
are expected today with the strong warm advection anticipated.
Most of the MOS guidance is pointing to upper 70s, perhaps a few
80 degree readings today.
Southerly winds remain strong overnight between 15 and 20 mph
sustained as the sfc low deepens and stretches eastward over the
central plains. By 12Z Thursday, the approaching cold front`s
location is just northwest of the CWA, accompanied by increasing
high clouds. The increasing cloudiness and persistent mixing
overnight results in near record warm lows once again in the upper
50s to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Please see Fire Weather discussion below for specific info on that
topic.
Thursday will be very windy as surface low pressure rapidly deepens
in western Kansas in response to the incoming strong upper trough
and associated jet streak. The heart of the negatively-tilted
upper trough will travel from SE Colorado to NE Nebraska by
sunrise on Friday, deepening along the way. This should track the
surface low roughly across north central KS with the cold front
surging across the forecast area between 9 PM and 3 AM. In advance
of the system on Thursday, the pressure gradient will strengthen
considerably with wind speeds at the top of the mixed layer around
50 kts and strong unidirectional flow through much of the
troposphere. This suggests a likelihood for wind gusts greater
than 40 mph and potential for some wind gusts in the 50 mph range
during the daytime hours. Gusts will continue into the evening and
then could see a couple hours of 40+ mph northwesterly gusts
immediately behind the cold front. Gusty winds will then continue
into Friday, mainly in the 30-40 mph range. Temperatures on
Thursday will remain quite warm, flirting with records.
Regarding precipitation with this storm system, surface dewpoints
are still expected to be on the low end while a strong cap will be
in place across the area. This will limit convective potential,
but the overall strength of the forcing with this system continues
to point to at least a chance for convective showers or even a few
storms Thursday night in eastern KS. Widespread activity looks
unlikely and strong storms look improbable given the strong cap
and virtually no instability. A second area of precipitation will
be associated with the upper level low with very strong vertical
motion aloft. This will occur on the edge of a mid level dry slot
across the local forecast area, and there is a chance that this
will keep the precip just to the northwest. However, given a bit
of uncertainty in the exact storm track along with the relative
proximity of the forcing, have maintained chance pops over north
central KS. At this time it looks like any precip would probably
occur just prior to temperatures becoming cold enough for
snowflakes to reach the surface, but even still can not completely
rule out a brief period of rain/snow mix in north central KS.
It will be much colder for Friday through the weekend but there
will be substantial warm advection and upper height rises by late
Sunday into Monday with highs expected to warm well back into the
50s by Monday into next week.
There is strong model agreement in the next storm system crossing
the Plains by Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with general
agreement that it will produce widespread precipitation across the
region. By this time, there should be sufficient warm air to keep
the precip type as all rain, but some forecast soundings do
suggest low-end potential of temperature profiles cooling enough
by Wednesday morning to at least pay attention to winter precip
potential.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 506 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Shallow fog may temporarily reduce visibility to MVFR through
sunrise at KTOP, otherwise VFR prevails at terminals through
period. Main concern is the strong south winds through the
afternoon and evening. An incoming system quickly increases winds
through 2000 feet from 15 kts at the sfc, to 55 kts at 2000 feet.
Inserted low level wind shear aft 00Z for all sites, expected to
increase towards midnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016
Today
Forecast soundings have some of the dry air aloft mixing down
towards the sfc while the strongest winds remain above the inversion
layer at 900 mb by late afternoon. This will need to be monitored
during the late afternoon as there is a slight potential for temps
to be a few degrees warmer, allowing the RH values to fall into the
upper 20s. For now, forecast sided closer to the drier bias from the
RAP and HRRR which are still holding minimum humidity values in the
lower 30s across north central Kansas, where the driest fuels
reside. Elsewhere humidity values fall to the middle and upper 30
percent range. Fire danger concerns are elevated at this time,
however are not dry enough to warrant headlines at this time.
Thursday - Friday
The main story on Thursday will be wind with southwest winds
gusting in the 40 to 45 mph range and at least a low end potential
for a few stronger gusts. Currently the MinRH forecast for the
afternoon ranges from 36-42 percent, but dry air at the top of a
very turbulent mixing layer lends at least some suggestion that
the RH could be a bit lower through mid afternoon. A very strong
cold front will pass through Concordia roughly around 9 PM,
Manhattan close to midnight, and Topeka around 3 AM. This will
provide a sharp shift to northwesterly winds that will likely be
in the 20-30 mph range through Friday with stronger gusts
approaching 35-40 mph. There may also be a brief period 1-2 hours
behind the front during which winds could gust 40-45 mph with a
relative minimum in RH...even though it will occur during the
overnight hours.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Current Record High Temperatures
----------------------------------------------------------
November 16 November 17
Topeka 79 76
(year) (1963) (1999)
Concordia 72 76
(year) (1999, 1958, 1954) (1943)
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Prieto
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch/Prieto
CLIMATE...Prieto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
339 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough of low pressure pushes through the Mid Atlantic and
Northeast states through this evening...with high pressure then
building over the local area Thursday and Friday. A strong cold
front pushes across the region Saturday night, with cooler and
continued dry weather expected for late in the weekend into early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest analysis indicating ~1020mb surface high pressure extending
from the West-Central Gulf Coast into the Mid-South and Southern
Appalachians. To the north, ~1010MB SFC with low pressure
continues to slide across northern New England, with the
associated weak sfc cool front extending back into the eastern
Ohio Valley. Aloft, quick moving shortwave trough digging across
the interior northeast toward the Delmarva, as strong, broad upper
ridging builds across the Mississippi River Valley.
Noting a narrow area of isolated to widely scattered showers
focused along and ahead of the front/sfc trough over central PA
into western MD. Height falls are minimal ahead of the sheared
vorticity lobe and modeled omega fields also indicate limited
available forcing for ascent. Precipitable water values per the
RAP and NAM remain no higher than 0.5-0.75", and expect that
minimal lift will likely not be sufficient to overcome the limited
moisture and dry sub- cloud layer to produce widespread rainfall.
However, given obs upstream, showing a smattering of trace/light
pcpn amounts over SW/South Central PA from this morning into early
aftn, have added iso-sct shower wording for late aftn/early
evening for the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore. QPF would be no
more than a few hundredths at the most over locations that can
pick up a quick shower through early evening.
Otherwise, warm W-SW flow has allowed for temperatures to warm
well into the 50s to lower 60s across the area under a mainly
clear sky. Do expect an increase in mid level clouds over the next
few hours, especially across the northeast where sky will likely
briefly become mostly cloudy to overcast this aftn/early evening.
Tonight...
Shortwave pushes offshore by midnight, as the shearing front
crosses the area. Any lingering clouds should erode quickly from
west to east as drier air pushes east. look for early morning
lows to average in the upper 30`s to low 40`s inland to mid to
upper 40`s near the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broad ridging at the sfc and aloft builds over the eastern third
of the nation, in response to another strong trough digging into
the Desert Southwest. Large scale subsidence behind departing
upper trough will bring mainly clear/sunny conditions through the
period. Warm, dry conditions will eventually give way to sharply
colder air for the latter half of the weekend as previously
referenced west coast trough translates east Friday/Saturday, with
the attendant strong cold front crossing into the area late
Saturday.
Thursday...
Minimal cold air advection behind the front tonight
and into Thursday. In fact, 850Mb temperatures actually warm to
+10 to +12C by Thu aftn. Model cross-sections continue to indicate
a reasonably sharp low-level inversion developing which will
prevent maximum mixing, keeping temps well below the potential
numbers that local thickness tools are indicating, especially with
breezy N-NW flow along the coastal plain. That said, expect
temperatures to gradually warm through the period. Look for high
temperatures warming into the mid to upper 60`s over the piedmont
Thursday under a sunny sky. Meanwhile, NNW flow will keep
temperatures Thursday similar to those of today over the eastern
half of the area...mainly in the low to mid 60s. Decoupling winds,
clear sky and high pressure overhead will bring a seasonably cold
night Thursday night with lows ranging from the mid 30s to lower
40s.
Friday...
The upper ridge axis locates over the Mid- Atlantic region on
Friday, as surface high pressure becomes centered along the
Southeast coast. Warming trend commences as return SSW flow
develops. GEFS plumes indicate 850mb temps warm to +12 to +14C, as
pronounced low-level inversion mixes out a bit more. This should
allow for a markedly warmer day on Friday, with maxima warming
into the low to mid 70s inland (+1 standard deviation) with mid
to upper 60`s near the coast. A bit milder Friday night with lows
mainly in the 40s to near 50 along the coast.
Saturday...
Remaining warm on Saturday, with the front not crossing through
until late in the day out west into early Sat night along the
coast. Once again, minimal forcing and dry PW/Dry sub-cloud layer
makes pcpn quite unlikely aside from perhaps some scant/trace
amounts with the actual frontal passage. For that reason, have
capped pop Saturday afternoon at no higher than 20%. Highs
Saturday in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A potent upper level trough (-2 st dev) will sweep across the
eastern seaboard Saturday night into Sunday. A strong cold front
will accompany this trough with 850mb temperatures dropping to
around -5 to -8C by Sunday. The airmass will remain rather well
mixed Saturday night and hence low temperatures should only drop
into the mid 30s inland to around 40 at the coast, and then highs
only rising into the mid 40s to around 50 Sunday, which are around
-1 to -1.5 st dev below seasonal means. Windy conditions are
expected Sunday with a nw wind of 15-25 mph expected, with gusts
of 30-35 mph possible, and locally stronger over the Eastern Shore
with a nw wind of 20-30 mph and gusts up to 40 mph possible.
Moisture will be limited with this system with only a 20-40% PoP
for showers Saturday evening from e- central VA to the coast.
Surface high pressure then gradually builds into the area Sunday
night into Monday. Forecast lows Sunday night range from the mid
20s to low 30s, with highs Monday in the upper 40s to low 50s.
High pressure remains in vicinity of the coast Monday night and
then gradually slides offshore Tuesday. Forecast lows Monday night
range from the upper 20s to low 30s, with highs Tuesday moderating
into the low/mid 50s. High pressure slides farther offshore by the
middle of next week as another trough and associated cold front
push through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly clear skies (VFR conds) and light winds attm across area
terminals. Weak sfc trough/frontal boundary to the west will cross
the area late tonight, providing wind shift to the N/NW later
tonight, with low level flow becoming light or onshore on Thu.
Minimal moisture/forcing to work with and confidence in
predominate period of showers is low. Have therefore added
vicinity shower wording at SBY from 22z-03z to cover for now.
Other terminals should remain dry and predominately VFR through
the period. Expect quick clearing to erode any lingering clouds
overnight behind the frontal passage, as high pressure builds
from the west.
Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to continue through
midday Sat. There will be a chance for showers early Sunday
(highest chc across the NE at SBY). Continued dry weather early
next week but with periodic MVFR ceilings possible at SBY
Sun/Mon.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak trough of low pressure will clip the coast tonight.
This will result in a nnw wind of 15-20kt over the ocean and 10-15kt
elsewhere late tonight through Thursday morning. High pressure will
then prevail over the marine area Thursday aftn through Friday. A nw
wind aob 15kt Thursday aftn into Thursday night will become light
and back to the sw Friday. High pressure then slides offshore Friday
night into early Saturday as a strong cold front approaches from the
nw. A sw wind of 5-10kt is expected Friday night and then increases
to 10-15kt early Saturday. The cold front is expected to sweep
across the area late Saturday aftn into Saturday evening. A WNW wind
should sharply increase in the wake of the front with strong caa
and gale force gusts are possible Saturday night into Sunday. A nw
wind of 15-25kt should continue Sunday night into Monday as high
pressure builds across the Southeast and low pressure departs well
to the ne of the region. Seas/waves should generally be
2-3ft/1-2ft through early Saturday, and then increase to
5-6ft/3-5ft in the wake of the cold front, before gradually
subsiding to 4-5ft/2-4ft Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...AJZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
435 PM EST Wed Nov 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will extend into the area from the west through
Friday with above normal temps. A dry cold front will come
through Saturday, reinforcing dry conditions with cooler temps for
the weekend and into next week. Smoke from wildfires in the
southern Appalachians will continue to affect the region through
much of the period.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The forecast area will be situated between an upper trough axis
moving off the east coast and an upper ridge building from the
Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Great Lakes. This will promote
northwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. Surface high
pressure over the central Gulf will gradually shift northeastward
into the region. The air mass will remain relatively dry with
precipitable water values around half an inch. Smoke from the
southern Appalachian wildfires will continue to be the main
forecast issue. Northwesterly low-level winds will allow the
smoke to filter into the forecast area. Overnight lows will be
mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s with smoke.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface/Upper level ridge over the Gulf coast will build
northeast over the Southeastern States as upper trough moves from
the Northern Plains toward the Mississippi valley. A dry air mass
will remain in place. Strong subsidence will result in above
normal mild afternoon temperatures and cool nights with dry air in
place and favorable net radiational cooling conditions. With
surface high centered over the area and light winds...smoke
should remain trapped in the area at least through Thursday. This
is supported by the latest HRRR smoke model guidance. Winds from
the southwest Friday may result in improving conditions with
regards to smoke...although winds remain light.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong cold front will move through the region Saturday
afternoon. Moisture will be limited with the front and showers
appear at most isolated mainly north of the region. Mild
temperatures ahead of the front but strong cold advection
developing in the afternoon with gusty west-northwest winds
possibly up to 30 mph. This may spread smoke back into the area
through mixing in the boundary layer should increase smoke
dispersion. Temperatures below normal through much of the period
with cold nights with favorable net radiational cooling
conditions. A freeze is possible Saturday night but more likely
Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The low-level northwesterly flow will continue to allow smoke to
filter into the forecast area. Vsbys will be mainly low-end VFR
or high-end MVFR through the evening. A return to IFR visibilities
in smoke and fog may occur again overnight as the latest HRRR
Smoke model indicating more issues with smoke later tonight.
Expect heating and mixing with an improvement to VFR conditions later
Thursday morning.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Reduced visibilities in smoke and fog
could continue through Friday. Lower VSBYS would be expected
during the early morning hours with some improvement in the
afternoon because of mixing.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
301 PM MST Wed Nov 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will begin moving through the western states
through Thursday. This will result in breezy to windy conditions and
much cooler temperatures, most noticeably on Thursday when highs in
the low deserts will be around 70 degrees. The coolest morning so
far this month will be on Friday. A warming trend is expected over
the weekend. A weather system may bring unsettled conditions with
chance of showers mainly across south central Arizona by the
beginning of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Widespread mid and high clouds continue to stream northeastward
ahead of a broad trough extending from the Pacific Northwest into
central California. The clouds have inhibited insolation this
afternoon, resulting in temperatures generally in the upper 70s and
lower 80s across the lower deserts. Meanwhile, the lower levels of
the atmosphere remain relatively dry with dewpoints in the 20s and
30s.
Short-term models remain in good agreement that a clearing trend
from west to east will take place overnight behind the eastward-
advancing trough axis. Low-level pressure gradient will also tighten
behind a frontal boundary, producing breezy conditions across
portions of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona. Latest
runs of the HRRR indicate wind gusts in these areas may reach 25 to
30 mph, particularly across ridgetops including JTNP.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Over the past several days, the operational GFS has been sort of a
yo-yo with respect to the approaching Pacific trof, at times digging
it further south into central/southern Arizona with strong winds and
sharp cooling, then alternating with more of a brush-by, with lighter
winds and less cooling and little or no threat of precip over the
southern half of the state. GEFS ensemble members were always a mixed
bag with the strength of this system. ECMWF has typically been a bit
weaker with the brunt of the trof passing by to our north, and the
latest few GFS operational runs have come into a good
alignment/agreement with the ECMWF. As such, we are expecting a fast
moving Pacific trof to push east across the area tonight through
Thursday evening with the main weather impacts being breezy/windy
conditions (mainly over the western deserts and favored areas of
southeast CA) and marked cooling.
High temps Thursday should lower into the upper 60s to low 70s over
most of the lower deserts and Phoenix should see the high fall to 71
degrees (4 degrees below normal). For now we will keep our winds
mostly below wind advisory thresholds, except for a few spots over
ridgetops and open country across favored areas of southeast
California such as Joshua Tree National Park. There may be a few
winds gusts to around 40 mph Wednesday night over the western deserts
and far southeast CA but we will not be issuing a wind advisory for
this system at this time due to borderline conditions.
Dry subsident northwest flow aloft will quickly spread in from the
west Thursday night into Friday as a flatter upper ridge builds into
the area, leading to sunny skies and slight warming. High temps
should climb to near seasonal normals on Friday over the deserts.
High pressure aloft will continue through the day on Saturday
allowing for a continued modest warming trend where the lower
deserts climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s under sunny or mostly
sunny skies.
The progressive nature of the flow pattern will lead to yet another
sharp change in the weather for the desert southwest late this
weekend and into early next week as another fast moving but much
wetter Pacific low appears poised to race through the area bringing
scattered showers along with considerable clouds and cooling. As the
trof sharpens up just off the California coast Sunday, the southwest
flow ahead of it taps into some subtropical moisture and sends quite
a bit of mainly high clouds into the state. By Monday morning, the
trof axis will be moving inland along the far northern Baja/southern
CA coast, with strong upper difluence and PVA moving into southern
Arizona. PWAT values are progged to climb over one inch across south
central Arizona, and these values will rise above the 90th
percentile of climo as shown by the situational awareness table
guidance. Operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF are very similar and
are trending wetter with this next system and the latest MRAMOS
guidance for Phoenix has climbed to 88 percent for Monday.
NAEFS POPs are also climbing and with values in excess of 50 percent
over much of south central AZ by Monday afternoon. As a result we
have raised our POPs sharply on Sunday night and Monday, with values
into the likely category over the higher terrain east of Phoenix by
Monday. Given the clouds and high chances for showers, high temps
will cool sharply and we have this reflected in our max temp
forecasts. At this time we are going with a high of 70 for Phoenix
on Monday but we may well see readings falling into the 60s should
the showers pan out.
As the system quickly races off to the east Monday night into
Tuesday we can expect a marked drying trend from the west; by
Tuesday afternoon there will be just a lingering slight chance of
showers over the higher terrain east of Phoenix with skies becoming
mostly sunny over the western lower deserts.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Broken to overcast mid and high clouds across the area will persist
for the remainder of the day before clearing out early tomorrow
morning. Westerly winds will persist for longer than usual with a
brief period of south to southeasterly winds late this evening into
early tomorrow morning. Winds will generally remain aob 10 kts with
a brief period of breezy southeasterly winds (only up to teens in
gusts) late this evening/early tomorrow morning.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Broken to overcast mid and high clouds across the area will persist
for the remainder of the day before clearing out early tomorrow
morning. As a dry strong frontal system sweeps through the area,
gusty westerly winds will develop. The strongest winds will be at
KBLH, where sustained winds will be near 15 kts with gusts up to 30
kts. At KIPL, westerly winds will be a little lighter, but expecting
them to gust up to 25 kts this afternoon into early tomorrow
morning.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday:
Fairly cool temperatures to persist into Friday (highs in the 70s
over the lower deserts) followed by warming for this weekend.
Humidities will be quite low through the weekend with afternoon
minimum values between 10-20 percent over the lower deserts. Winds
will be light Friday through Sunday with occasional afternoon
breeziness. A weather system approaching from the west will lead to
continued increasing humidity on Monday along with a good chance of
wetting rains across the area. This system will bring another shot of
cooler air with temperatures back to near normals for Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Skywarn radio Net activation will not be needed through Sunday.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...Hernandez
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman