Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/15/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
938 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will continue to thicken and lower, as a low
pressure system moves northeast from Mid Atlantic Coast towards
eastern New York and western New England overnight. This system
will bring light rain into the region during the late morning
through the afternoon. A weak disturbance will move across the
region on Wednesday with isolated showers north and west of the
Capital District. By Thursday, high pressure will build into the
region bringing seasonable temperatures and dry weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 938 PM EST...The latest IR satellite picture with RAP data
overlayed shows widespread mid and high clouds streaming
north/northeast into eastern NY and western New England ahead of a
warm front and low pressure system moving northeast from the near
the NC/VA border. The atmosphere is super dry in the low levels
which is evident in the 00Z KALY RAOB with saturation near 500 hPa
or 20 kft AGL. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower and the
large T/TD sfc spreads should keep the pcpn from reaching the
ground until towards 5-7 am across the extreme southeast portion
of the fcst area /southern Dutchess and southern Litchfield
Counties/. This is similar to the latest 18Z and 00Z NAM trends
and the HRRR. The trends for the pops/wx were slowed down in the
grids.
The temps really fell off quickly north and east of the Capital
Region with the partly clouds skies and calm winds. However...the
rate of fall has lessened with the high clouds. Temps were
adjusted down a tad over southern VT and the northern Berkshires
where temps fell to 32-35F quickly. Expect temps to steady or
slowly rise overnight with lows in the 30s with a few upper 20s
over the southern Greens/southern Adirondacks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...Clouds will be on the increase as an area of low
pressure starts to track up the coast. Areas to the south may see
light rain move into the region overnight. With cloudy skies,
Low temps will not be as cold as we saw Monday AM.
Tuesday...The area of low pressure will continue to move up the
east coast. With the low passing by to our south and east,
Tuesday will be a cloudy and rainy day. Best area of heaviest qpf
will be areas to the south and areas east of the Hudson Valley.
QPF values will generally be a quarter to half an inch, with the
higher of the amounts across areas east of the Hudson valley.
Areas across Mohawk Vally and the Northwestern Adirondacks, may
see around a tenth of an inch or less based on current model
trends. With clouds and rain, high temperatures will be in the
40s.
By Tuesday night, the low will continue to move up the New England
coast. Rain will slowly taper off from southwest to northeast.
There will still be some low level moisture/wrap around moisture
with the low pressure departing. Depending on how long the system
takes to clear out...Temps Tuesday night might not drop too much
and stay in the mid to upper 30s.
Wednesday...Will be between systems as the low departs and an upper
level trough approaches the region. Overall Wednesday should be dry
with the exception of a few showers possible across the higher
terrain with a weak piece of upper level energy. Highs will be in
the upper 40s across the Adirondacks to the lower 50s across the
valley locations.
Thursday...High pressure will build across the southeastern
portion of the US. With a southwesterly flow, temperatures will
rise above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term portion of the forecast will start with ridging
across the east and a trough with a massive low pressure system
across the central portion of the US. High pressure will continue
to build into the east on Friday. This will again allow for above
normal temperatures and dry conditions.
Saturday...a strong area of low pressure at the surface and 500 will
be across the great lakes region and start to approach the Northeast
late in the day. Overall Saturday will be dry and mild before the
frontal passage.
Sunday...Colder air will be in place as the low pressure system
tracks eastward and a h500 trough digs into the region. The trough
will become negatively tilted with time. Short waves of energy will
bring showers into the region on Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday
will be at normal or a few degrees below normal.
Monday...The trough will continue to be over the region with a upper
level low. With upper level waves and energy...will keep a chance
of showers and normal to slightly below normal temperatures.
Key thing to watch with the system on Sunday and Monday is the
location of the low and timing. Being seven days out a lot could
change. If the timing does hold areas could see some snow Monday
night into Tuesday AM. Overall, will have to watch this with time
and as confidence gets more solid.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A low pressure system will approach from the Mid Atlantic Coast
tonight and bring some rainfall into the TAF sites tomorrow
morning into the afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF prior to 10Z
with cigs lowering ahead of the low pressure system. Expect the
clouds to continue to thicken and lower with the increasing warm
advection to heights of 4-6 kft AGL btwn 08Z-12Z. Some light rain
will start to move into the KPOU area btwn 12Z-14Z and spreading
northward to KALB-KPOU...and then KGFL by the 19Z.
CIGS/VSBYS will lower to MVFR levels initially...and then to IFR
levels in the rainshield especially for KALB-KPSF south and east
btwn 14Z-18Z. KGFL may only have low MVFR flight conditions
especially in the early to mid afternoon depending on track of
the storm.
The winds will be light to calm overnight...and then increase from
the north to northeast at 4-7 kts late tomorrow morning into the
afternoon.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday to Friday night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Slight Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will recover tonight with increasing amounts of
moisture in the atmosphere. A low pressure system will approach
the northeast on Tuesday. This will bring rain showers to the
region on Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will generally be a quarter to
half an inch...with lesser amounts across areas north and west of
the Hudson Valley.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A low pressure system will move up the Atlantic coast tonight and be
just east of the area on Tuesday. This will bring rain to the
region on Tuesday. Overall QPF amounts should be light enough to
not cause any problems. QPF totals will generally be a quarter to
half an inch...with lesser amounts across areas north and west of
the Hudson Valley. After that, high pressure will build into the
region for the end of the week.
Our next chance of QPF would be on Sunday as a strong storm
system approaches the region.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...VTK
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...VTK
HYDROLOGY...VTK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1029 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will extend into the area from the west through
Friday, with above normal temps. A dry cold front will come
through Saturday, reinforcing dry conditions with cooler temps for
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Strong radiational cooling combined with enhanced low level
moisture and near zero dewpoint depressions beneath dry mid levels
has resulted in some patchy dense fog across the Pee Dee and parts
of the far eastern Midlands. Smoke particulates from the wild
fires that moved over the region also likely a contributing factor
to fog development. Issued a special weather statement for patchy
dense fog to handle for the time being but it is anticipated that
a dense fog advisory may be needed later tonight but confidence is
low because stratus clouds are also developing which could prevent
the dense fog from maintaining or forming.
Elsewhere around the forecast area, high concentrations of smoke
from the wildfires in the mountains settled over the Midlands and
CSRA this evening with visibilities in the 3-6 mile range.
Model forecast soundings show a strong inversion setting up
overnight and smoke model forecasts show concentrations of smoke
increasing through the predawn hours so will continue the mention
of areas of smoke in the weather grids. Temperatures overnight
will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough over the Mid Atlantic region and Northeast
States...resulting northwest flow aloft across the Carolinas.
Surface ridge over the lower Mississippi valley and Gulf Coast
States will build slowly east. Dry air mass over the
area...although shallow low-level moisture remains through early
morning leading to some fog. In addition to morning fog...HRRR
smoke model indicates smoke from Upstate/NC fires will spread into
the Midlands during the day. Downsloping winds should result in
mild afternoon temperatures despite thin smoke aloft. Should see
temperatures climb into the upper 60s by the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper long wave trough off the coast with upper ridge building
over the southeastern States through Friday as deep low moves out
of intermountain west into the Northern Plains. Air mass will
remain dry through Friday and temperatures will be above
normal...highs in the lower 70s...due to ridge aloft. Models
suggest a cold front will move through the region Saturday
afternoon/evening. The latest guidance continues to point to a dry
frontal passage due to limited moisture. Breezy conditions behind
the front with moderately strong cold advection/modified Canadian
air mass. Maximum temperatures mainly in the 50s Sunday and
Monday despite strong isolation. Freezing temperatures possible
Monday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flight restrictions are expected at all terminals due to reduced
visibilities in smoke and fog tonight. Smoke from wildfires over the
southern Appalachians spread into area earlier today and has become
trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion. Based on the HRRR smoke
forecast and USFS BlueSky modeling, the smoke should persist through
the night. In addition, conditions are favorable for fog formation
due to elevated dew points, light winds, clear skies and dry air
aloft. As a result, the TAFs indicate MVFR or lower visibilities in
smoke through 06Z, then IFR or lower visibilities in fog enhanced by
smoke from 06-15Z. The expectation is that some diurnal improvement
should occur, and this is supported by some of the smoke modeling,
so visibilities return to MVFR by 15Z and VFR by 19Z Tuesday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Reduced visibilities in smoke/fog could
continue through Wednesday. Lower VSBYS would be expected late
night/morning, with some improvement in the afternoon due to
mixing.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1057 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm system will move up along the east coast tonight and
Tuesday. This will bring a chance of light showers to southeast
Pennsylvania. Another weak disturbance will bring a chance of
showers to NW Pennsylvania as well as a brief reinforcing shot of
cooler air Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate once again by the
end of the week as a ridge of high pressure returns to the eastern
US. Temperatures will be well above average by the end of the work
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BKN-OVC skies covering central PA late this evening with very
light radar returns representing isolated areas of light rain
reaching the ground over parts of the South Central mountains.
Pops remain highest south and southeast overnight as slow moving
upper trof over the Lower Ohio Valley and its mid Atlantic sfc low
reflection move closer. HRRR runs still doing a good job showing
precipitation decreasing in coverage and intensity as it moves
northward into drier air, but there is enough moisture and lift to
bring some light showers to SE zones overnight. QPF will be less
than one quarter inch, but is welcome given how dry its been this
fall. With milder airmass and more cloud cover overnight temperatures
will be a little milder than last few nights.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure system moves into New England with decreasing clouds
and pops west to east leading to a pleasant afternoon with
temperatures again several degrees over average. A shortwave in
westerly flow will approach NW CWA late Tuesday night with cloud
cover increasing as well as the chance of light showers towards
daybreak Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
After the low lifts NE of the region Tue night, the long wave
trough will sharpen over the eastern CONUS through midweek with an
embedded shortwave bringing a chance of showers Wednesday along
with a brief reinforcing shot of cooler air.
The progressive pattern will result in a big ridge returning for
the end of the week along with moderating temperatures.
After a dry Thursday and a very mild Friday (with temperatures
climbing into the 60s), a new trough moving through the central
US that will push a cold front through the local area this
weekend. The models still disagree with the strength and timing of
the front and the amount of rain that will occur with it - though
timing of precip should be focused from late Sat into Sunday.
What seems more certain is that the weekend will end with a shot
of colder air (as 850MB temps drop some 15-20C) that will last at
least into early next week in brisk NW flow. This will also bring
mention of sct rain and snow showers to northern mtns and laurel
highlands as high temps fall back into the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure system near Cape Hatteras will track northward
over the next 24 hours, bringing the chance of a few showers
across Eastern Pa late tonight and Tuesday. However, dry low level
air over the region should ensure a continuation of VFR conditions
across all of Central Pa through Tuesday evening.
Outlook...
Wed...Showers/reduced cigs possible KBFD/KJST.
Thu...AM low cigs/fog possible Western Pa.
Fri...Patchy AM fog possible.
Sat...PM showers/MVFR reductions possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions this afternoon with RH values quite low below 30
percent across the area. However winds are expected to be mainly
under 10 mph.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...La Corte/RXR
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
649 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016
Quiet weather and mild temperatures will continue through the rest
of this week. Highs in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday will warm
into the low to mid 60s on Thursday and Friday. A strong cold
front will move through this weekend, resulting in rain changing
over to snow Saturday night. Lake-effect snow will be possible
Saturday night into Sunday. Highs in the low 40s are expected
Sunday and Monday, with lows near or below freezing.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016
I increased the fog to dense between US-131 and US-31 from Holland
north late tonight into midday Tuesday. I did this based on the
HRRR and RAP model both showing this and the models showing an
area of higher dew points developing over the southern 1/3 of Lake
Michigan that moves into the cooler air over the land as the front
moves through. Winds will be light so this will not allow for much
mixing initially. The fog should mix out by midday Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016
A weak surface front will slowly slide into the area from the
northwest tonight, but no precipitation is expected. Weak forcing
and mid-level dry air will keep Central and West Michigan dry
tonight. Winds will go light and variable late tonight with the
surface trough over the area. An increase in low level moisture
could result in more clouds, but the expansive area of low clouds
evident on visible satellite across Wisconsin and Minnesota is not
expected to sock in West Michigan overnight. With partly cloudy
skies a large portion of the night, areas of fog could develop after
midnight.
A second cold front will push through Lower Michigan Tuesday evening
and night. A more potent shortwave does dive southeast from northern
Minnesota, but the deeper moisture and large-scale forcing will
remain well north of the area. There is just a low chance for light
rain across the northern forecast area Tuesday evening.
With no significant push of cold air, temperatures will remain
fairly steady through Wednesday. Highs generally in the mid 50s with
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Upper ridging and surface high
pressure build back in on Wednesday, resulting in more quiet weather
and decreasing clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016
Main forecast concern is the transition to colder temperatures and
prospects for snow this weekend. Models are in good agreement
showing a transition from rain to snow Saturday night. Prospects for
snow accumulations look limited at this time and would have the best
chance of occurring over higher elevations of Northern and Central
Lower Michigan. Southwest Lower Michigan could see a dominant lake
effect precipitation band extending onshore with the northwest
winds. However, water temperatures are still very warm and and the
plume of lake modified air spreading inland will feature wet bulb
temperatures near or above freezing which should curtail snow
accumulation near the lakeshore.
There will be a pronounced cool down. Thursday and Friday feature
highs in the lower to mid 60s which is about 20 degrees above
normal. After the mix of precipitation ends early Sunday, highs
Sunday and Monday should be around 40 which is slightly below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 649 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016
Currently VFR with cirrus clouds and light south southwest winds.
This will continue until the surface cold front comes through the
area early to mid morning Tuesday. Since the front will be slow to
move through and winds will be light and given the lake water
temperature is in the mid 50s yet, I expect dense fog along the
lake shore inland to US-131 from after 06z till around 15z. This
means MKG will go LIFR late tonight into midday Tuesday. GRR may
also see this a few hours later. With AZO, BTL, LAN and JXN not
having as much lake air, they should only see MVFR fog Tuesday
morning. All areas should be VFR by late afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016
Waves will continue to subside with diminishing winds this evening
and overnight. Winds from the southwest of 10-15 knots this
afternoon will diminish to light and variable overnight.
Conditions will become hazardous on Lake Michigan for small craft
Tuesday night and continue Wednesday. Southwest winds of 15 to 20
knots will veer northwest after midnight Tuesday night as a cold
front moves through. Waves are expected to build to 3-5 feet after
midnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016
Area rivers are below bankfull and levels are steady or slowly
falling. A few gages in the Grand River and Kalamazoo River basins
indicate slightly above normal base flow for this time of year.
However, there is high confidence for dry conditions through Friday,
which should allow area river levels and base flows to continue
trending towards normal.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...EBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
956 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger across the region until a dry cold front
crosses from the west by the middle of the week. Deep layered and
warm high pressure quickly returns Thursday with a vigorous cold
front approaching the region late Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1000 pm EST Monday: Smoke remains an issue overnight but also
some pesky low clouds across central NC that may work their way
westward into our eastern zones that will have to be watched.
Overall made very few changes with the late evening update and most
of this was to adjust hourly trends. Lowered overnight lows just a
tad for the higher elevations and some areas in Henderson County
(which still has an active Frost/Freeze program) may flirt with some
frost, but right now think dewpoints are a little too dry.
Otherwise, forecast soundings indicate that a strong inversion will
develop this evening and overnight. Sfc smoke guidance indicates
that some areas could see smoke concentration three times higher
than this morning across the upstate. I will indicate vis decreasing
overnight, falling into the 1-2 mile range late this evening and
overnight east of I-77. Low temperatures are forecast to range from
the mid to upper 30s across the NC mtn valleys and across the I-40
corridor, low 40s across the upper Savannah River valley.
Tuesday, daytime mixing should yield improving vis by mid day,
western Carolina sites may continue to see light restrictions in vis
headed into the early afternoon. In fact, high temperatures are
forecast to range generally 2-4 degrees warmer across the upstate
and NE GA from values observed today. The peak mixing height may
range around 5 kft, resulting in better ventilation tomorrow
afternoon. I will indicate a transition from areas of smoke to
patchy smoke during the afternoon. Mid afternoon RH values are
forecast to fall into the low 30s east of the mtns.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 PM Monday: The upper trough will progress away from the
Appalachians early in the period, giving way to a building ridge
downstream of a major southwest Conus cyclone by the end of the
period. Otherwise, dry surface high pressure and low level W/NW flow
will continue to dominate through the period. No substantive
improvement is expected in the ongoing wildfire situation during the
short term, so smoke will continue to cause visby and air quality
issues across at least the western half of the forecast area through
the period, esp during the overnight and morning hours. Under the
influence of rising upper heights, temps will warm to about 5
degrees above climo by Wed afternoon, and remain there through the
period.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 pm EST Monday, an amplified pattern will start off the
medium range period Thursday night into Friday with a prominent
trough translating across the plains states while a dominant ridge
persists over the east. Heights will fall rapidly from the west
Friday night, the surface cold front will cross the area on
Saturday, and the primary upper trough will cross the region through
Saturday night. Upper jet right entrance region divergence will
arrive in the forecast area on Saturday to enhance forcing, but
frontal zone moisture looks increasingly narrow. In addition, low
level flow should veer quickly ahead of the front, and instability
looks quite limited for any thunderstorm potential.
Stronger northwest flow moisture will set up across the mountains
Saturday night and linger through Sunday. 850 mb temps may bottom
out at minus 6 to minus 8 C by 12Z Sunday, so there will be a chance
of upslope snow showers in the northwest flow early Sunday. Deep
layer northwest flow will persist behind the trough through Sunday
night with the pattern flattening out through Monday. Expect above
climo temps on Friday, falling to below climo temps Sunday into
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Update for KCLT has been to add MVFR vsby for
FU, and also to add TEMPO for low clouds to the east that may make
their way into the KCLT airspace (HRRR and RAP both indicating a few
hours of IFR cigs). Otherwise no changes. Main issue through the TAF
period will be vsby restrictions overnight due to smoke. Expect
widespread MVFR and areas of IFR vsby, and especially right before
sunrise cannot rule out patchy LIFR or VLIFR vsby with nearly calm
winds in place and smoke settling across the region (especially for
the Upstate TAFs). Expect slow clearing on Tuesday. Winds will swing
around NW and W as high pressure shifts over the area.
Outlook: A weak cold front will cross the region from the west by
mid week, but with limited moisture. Smoke could persist at times in
and near the mountain valleys given continuation of wildfires in the
vicinity.
Confidence Table...
03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z
KCLT High 100% High 98% High 98% High 100%
KGSP High 88% High 100% High 88% High 100%
KAVL High 89% High 100% High 88% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 88% High 100% High 88% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 89% High 88% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ight, forecast soundings indicate that a strong inversion will
develop this evening and overnight. Sfc smoke guidance indicates
that some areas could see smoke concentration three times higher
than this morning across the upstate.
On Tuesday, daytime mixing should yield improving vis by mid day,
western Carolina sites may continue to see light restrictions in vis
headed into the early afternoon. In fact, high temperatures are
forecast to range generally 2-4 degrees warmer across the upstate
and NE GA from values observed today. The peak mixing height may
range around 5 kft, resulting in better ventilation tomorrow
afternoon. Mid afternoon RH values are forecast to fall into the low
30s east of the mtns and mid to upper 30s across the mtns. Winds may
increase from the NW between 5 to 10 kts across the ridges during
the afternoon. A weak sfc lee trough should support a light WSW wind
east of the mtns.
Tue night-Wed, Slightly warmer and drier conditions are expected
over the active fire areas during mid-week, with no chance of rain,
max Ts in the mid/upper 60s expected Wed Thu afternoons, along with
minimum RH generally in the 30 to 40 percent range expected. It
should be stressed that relative humidity forecasts in the Planning
Forecast (FWF) are averaged over a large area. Local effects, as
well as fire activity itself can result in observed RH values much
different than what is forecast. Please request spot forecasts for
more precise forecast information. Poor dispersion
conditions/reduced visibility in smoke are also expected to
persist, esp during the overnight and morning hours.
A mostly dry, sharp cold front will cross the region from west on
Saturday. Winds will come up sharply from the northwest Saturday
night and remain gusty through Sunday. This is further enhance fire
danger this weekend.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NED/SBK
NEAR TERM...NED/TDP
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...TDP
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
900 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016
A weak cold front is currently crossing the forecast area, with
little fanfare as was anticipated. The associated cloud cover is
minimal, and the most notable impact is a wind shift from
southwest to northwest. Main concern overnight is if any fog will
develop as the temperature/dew point spread decreases. Not much
has happened thus far, and short-range guidance is suggesting a
lower risk than it did earlier today. Still, given the good
radiational cooling conditions and small T/Td spreads, will
maintain current patchy fog in the forecast. Only minor hourly
forecast tweaks are necessary at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016
20z/2pm surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from near
Madison, Wisconsin to just east of Kansas City, Missouri. The
airmass ahead of the boundary remains quite dry, although surface
dewpoints have risen slightly into the lower to middle 40s across
central Illinois this afternoon. As the front slowly edges
eastward, mid/high clouds will be on the increase late this
afternoon into the evening: however, a lack of deep-layer moisture
will prevent any precip development. The front will gradually make
its way to the Indiana border by 12z Tue. With dewpoints pooling in
the 40s along the boundary and mid/high clouds expected to
dissipate, patchy fog will likely develop overnight. HRRR has been
consistently showing fog developing across the eastern two-thirds of
the KILX CWA after 08z. Have therefore added patchy fog to the
forecast everywhere along/east of the Illinois River. This will not
be a good set-up for widespread or dense fog, so am only
anticipating minor visby reductions. Once any early morning fog
burns off, mostly sunny skies will prevail on Tuesday with afternoon
highs topping out in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016
Unseasonably warm weather to be the main story through Friday as a
strong storm system tracks across the upper Midwest, with much
colder weather to follow for the rest of the forecast period.
Upper level ridging forecast to amplify over the central U.S. in
response to a powerful trof forecast to dig into the southern
Rockies on Thursday. This should result in an increasing southerly
flow over the Midwest late Wednesday and especially on Thursday
helping to pump afternoon temperatures well into the 70s. 12z models
very similar to the 00z solutions with the GFS the slowest to push
the cold front through our area Friday evening, while the ECMWF had
the boundary through southeast Illinois by mid-afternoon. Amplified
pattern over the lower 48 lends credence to the slower GFS solution
over the past few days so will continue to lean towards its forecast,
which will result in slower cold frontal passage late Friday. As a
result, it looks like a classic cool season severe weather threat
for parts of the Midwest Friday afternoon into the evening hours.
The shear profiles have never been an issue with this system, with
50-60 kts 0-6km bulk shear seen on just about any model you looked
at over the past 3-4 day , but due to the meager moisture profiles
depicted on the ECMWF, cape values have been low to non-existant.
May see some showers and storms enter our far western counties
Friday morning, but the main event, if there is going to be one,
will be in the afternoon and early evening hours as the front
sweeps across the area. The shower threat will begin to shift off
to our east late Friday night as the mid level dry slot tracks
across the forecast area.
Wrap around moisture and strong cold advection will be the main
weather story on Saturday with the more robust GFS suggesting some
showers affecting our northern counties, while the ECMWF shifts the
moisture further northeast away from our area on Saturday. Model
consensus suggests the better threat for the light showers will
be to our north and east on Saturday, so for now, will keep the
area dry. However, gusty northwest winds and low level cold
advection should keep afternoon temperatures in the 40s on
Saturday with night-time lows dropping into the middle 20s. A
chilly weather pattern looks to hold through the remainder of
this forecast period before we see a warming trend set up for the
Midwest a couple of days before Thanksgiving.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016
A weak cold front will push across central Illinois tonight. A dry
frontal passage is anticipated, but a period of MVFR fog is
expected later tonight until drier air filters in behind the
boundary. Winds should average below 10 kts through the period
shifting between southwest and northwest with frontal passage.
Winds will start trending back westerly with time Tuesday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1004 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Approaching shortwave trough and cold front are looking a bit
more potent than previously suggested by models, and have developed
some showers this evening across the MS River Valley. Short term
models like the HRRR have some developing precip along the upper
vort max and cold front crossing the TN river around 09Z-12Z this
morning, but have kept things dry for now as current shower
activity is more isolated than models currently show. Adjusted
temperatures slightly to better match cloud cover this evening,
with colder temps over the Plateau and slightly warmer as you move
westward. Other than that, no major changes, and will keep an eye
on developing precip upstream for possible showers in western
zones in the early morning.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Upper trough swinging across the area with frontal system in
Missouri and Arkansas heading this way. System is moisture starved
so not expecting to get any rain from it but do expect clouds to
move in after midnight but should remain vfr through 18z Tuesday.
Could still see some smoke along the plateau later tonight but
much improved elsewhere over last 24 hours.
boyd
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........01/Boyd
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
935 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low and an associated area of low pressure will
lift northeast away from the area tonight, followed by another
upper level trough on Tuesday. An upper level ridge then will
build east over the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 935 PM Monday...
It appears the back edge of the low stratus has nearly stalled
in the past few hours over the eastern Piedmont. The low level
flow continued to be light NNE (cyclonic) over areas along and
east of the Sandhills and eastern Piedmont. Even in the areas
of the SW Piedmont around Wadesboro and Rockingham that were
clearing, fog has rapidly developed. The latest HRRR and NAM
near term forecasts support the current data in delaying clearing
for much of the central and eastern part of our region until
near or after sunrise Tuesday. This will keep temperatures up
in the east (40s). A dense fog advisory may be needed as well
over the areas of the SW into the central Piedmont (Anson and
Richmond to Randolph/Chatham) if the current trends continue.
We will indicate cloudy skies in the east, partly cloudy NW,
and areas of dense fog SW into the central Piedmont.
Previous discussion at 635 PM...
The rain over the north-central Piedmont into VA has been decreasing
in coverage to the point that there was only a few light showers
left over near Roxboro at 650 PM. We will continue to eliminate the
chance of any additional rainfall in the few counties across the
north in the next few hours (should be all done by 900 PM).
The back edge of the low stratus extended from near Southern Pines
north to RDU and Henderson. The back edge of this low cloud deck was
moving ENE, but slowly. Back to the west, very dry air was located
just east of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge. However, with light
winds it will take until late evening and overnight for the stratus
to scour out. The center of the cool/stable pool left over from
the rain today (from Orange and Vance counties NE into VA) should be
the last to scour out. Otherwise, patchy fog can be expected in all
but the western Piedmont where the current dry air resides, and
where no rain fell today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...
Cyclonic flow will continue aloft as yet another shortwave dives
out of the upper Midwest and across the area, carving out a deeper
longwave trough axis that will push east of central NC by
Wednesday. Forecast soundings look too dry to wring out any precip
some previous GFS/ECMWF runs showing such. Have used low level
thicknesses to get forecast highs given little thermal advection,
which are on the warmer side of statistical guidance, 64-67. Weak
winds and mostly clear skies will allow for strong radiational for
at least the first half of the night, with a light wind after
midnight as the the upper trough moves overhead and the MSLP
gradient tightens a little. Lows should reach the upper 30s to lower
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM Monday...
Fairly tranquil weather pattern expected to persist across central
NC through the extended period. Temperatures initially will average
close to normal then climb to above normal levels Friday and
possibly Saturday before a much colder air mass overspreads the
region by Sunday.
An upper level trough along the eastern seaboard Wednesday will
gradually lift/move east, allowing an upper level ridge anchored
over the Gulf of Mexico to extend nwd into the Carolinas Thursday
and Friday. This weather system will usher in a warmer air mass,
leading to afternoon temperatures well into the 60s to around 70 on
Friday.
Forecast becomes more uncertain during the weekend as model timing
differences very apparent with the ECMWF as much as 12-18 hours
faster compared to the GFS. Both models depict a strong/deep upper
level low over the western Great Lakes early Saturday. This system
will likely grab the weather headlines the later half of the week as
it has the potential to cause the first winter storm of the season
over much of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. If ECMWF
verifies, expect frontal passage early in the day Saturday. If GFS
is more correct, frontal passage will not occur until late Saturday
or Saturday night. Even if the ECMWF is more correct, cold air
advection will likely be offset by downslope component of low level
wind. For now will favor the slower timing, and project afternoon
temps near 70-lower 70s over the se half of the forecast area.
Colder air should overspread the region by Sunday, leading to
afternoon high temps as much as 15-18 degrees cooler compared to
Saturday afternoon. The cool air will linger into Monday.
Atmosphere projected to remain quite dry for this time of year.
In spite of the strong front, moisture very limited so expecting
nothing more than a band of cloudiness with the front. If the
dynamics aloft swing far enough south on Sunday, potential for an
isolated shower or two to occur during the afternoon-early evening
hours. Also, potential for windy conditions behind the front Sunday.
If this materializes and the air mass dries out even further,
yielding minimum RH values in the 20s, could see an increased fire
danger threat across central NC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 658 PM Monday...
VFR conditions at KINT/KGSO are expected to continue through the
period. Low clouds remaining across the eastern half of the state
should slowly begin to erode overnight as drier air enters the
region in westerly flow. A period of clear skies would create
conditions that would support the formation of sub-VFR visbys,
though, as low dewpoint depressions will remain across this region
overnight. VFR conditions should prevail across the entire area
by late morning Tuesday.
Outlook:
Dry VFR conditions should through the remainder of the work week.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...30/SMITH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
917 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
Have added a mention of fog across parts of northeast OK
and northwest AR per recent HRRR output and where current
dewpoint depressions are non-existant. Overnigh shift will
need to continue to monitor for possibility of more
widespread fog.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 45 77 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 46 78 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 44 78 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 39 77 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 40 73 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 44 73 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 45 77 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 42 73 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
F10 46 78 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 48 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
413 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
As a weak storm moves up the coast into New England,
periods of light rain are expected during the day on today,
especially for areas east of the Hudson Valley. With the clouds and
expected rainfall, temperatures will be cooler than recent days.
Behind this storm, temperatures will return to being above normal
for the remainder of the week, with mainly dry weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 413 AM EST...At 500 hpa, a broad upper level trough is
located over the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, a weak
area of low pressure is located at the surface off the coast of
Virginia. Although the atmosphere is currently rather dry over
our area (PWAT values only 0.14 inches at Albany based on the 00z
KALY sounding), there is plenty of moisture streaming northward
off the eastern seaboard. The latest IR satellite imagery shows a
band of deep moisture and even some convection with this band of
clouds moving northward across the Gulf Stream and headed towards
southern New England. Meanwhile, plenty of mid/high level clouds
are in place over all of upstate New York and western New England
as the upper trough continues to slowly move towards the area.
KENX radar imagery shows some rainfall is just starting to get
close to our far southern zones. It may take a little while to
moisten up the lowest portion of the atmosphere, but some rainfall
looks to begin across Dutchess/Litchfield Counties over the next
few hours.
The 07z 3km HRRR shows steady light rain will gradually overspread
the region from southeast to northwest during the day today. It
may take until the late morning or around noon to reach the
Capital Region and areas north/west. The steadiest rainfall looks
to occur during the afternoon hours, as the storm system moves
across central/eastern New England. Although the bulk of the
rainfall will be light, the HRRR suggests there could be some
locally heavier downpours (mainly across western New England) as
a 40 kt low-level jet (850 hpa u wind 2 to 3 STD below normal)
combines with PWATs rising to around 1.00 inches (about 1 to 2 STD
above normal). This rainfall is much needed, although cannot rule
out some large puddles on area roadways and on streets in the
urbanized areas of western New England where fallen leaves may
clog drainage for this afternoon into the evening commute.
With our area on the western fringe of the storm, the rainfall
may be somewhat more spotty and lighter further west, such as
across the western Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks. These areas may
only see under a tenth of an inch of rainfall and much of the day
may just wind up being cloudy and cool with a few periods of light
rain.
Temperatures today will be cooler than recent days with highs
generally in the 40s. A few spots (such as in northwestern parts
of the area) may see highs around 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Steady rainfall in the evening will taper off to showers by late
this evening into tonight as the low pressure area continues to
lifts towards northern New England. Still, the upper level trough
overhead and cyclonic flow in place could allow for a few
additional rain showers, especially for northern and eastern parts
of the area. It will remain cloudy overnight, as low-level
moisture will be trapped beneath an inversion. Lows will only be
in the mid to upper 30s.
With the upper trough still overhead, there will be more clouds
than sun for Wednesday, although some breaks will occur from time
to time for valley areas. There could be a few additional light
rain showers or sprinkles across western areas thanks to the
passing upper level trough, but it should be dry for most of the
day. Highs will be milder once again, with temperatures reaching
into the 50s for valley areas.
As the upper level through starts to slide eastward, strong upper
level ridging will build into the area for the remainder of the
work week, as a large area of surface high pressure dominates
much of the eastern US. This will allow for dry weather with
clearing skies for Wed night through Thursday Night. Temps aloft
will be warming, allowing for above-normal daytime highs.
Overnight lows on Wed/Thurs nights will generally be in the 30s
and highs on Thursday look to reach the upper 40s to upper 50s
across the area. Most spots will see highs of 5 to 10 degrees
above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Guidance is in agreement that the longwave pattern will be amplified
across the CONUS through the period. A strong low pressure system is
expected to have formed over the Plains and is forecast to be moving
into the Great Lakes region as we close out the week and head into
the weekend. It`s expected that high pressure across our region will
be weakening as we are squeezed between the system moving across the
Great Lakes and a storm located around 500 miles east of Montauk
Point resulting in fair and mild weather; highs in the 50s and lows
in 30s. It appears the Great Lakes system should occluded as its
cold front moves eastward across the Northeast Saturday night into
Sunday with showers, mainly rain, expected across the area.
The uncertainty in the forecast grows as the upper trough is expected
to become negatively tilted with an low developing over the region
by late in the weekend and how it interacts with the offshore storm.
The indications are the coastal storm will be drawn westward and will
consolidated into a low over New England which should lift northward
through early in the week. This set up will have cyclonic flow across
the region drawing colder air across the relatively warm water of the
Great Lakes resulting in lake enhanced rain/snow showers.
Temperatures are anticipated to run below normal as we head into
Thanksgiving weekend with highs only in upper 20s to lower 40s Monday
along with brisk and gusty winds.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An area of low pressure along the mid-Atlantic coast will move
gradually northward and into New England this evening. Clouds will
be on the increase thickening and lowering overnight into Tuesday
morning. Rainfall associated with the low will overspread the TAF
sites during the day with conditions lower to MVFR in the morning at
KPOU, by afternoon at KPSF, in the early afternoon at KALB and by
mid/late afternoon at KGFL. A period of IFR conditions are expected
at KPOU and KPSF. The rain is expected to end from southwest to
northeast during the evening hours with MVFR conditions lingering.
Winds will be light/variable to calm overnight with a light north to
northeast flow developing in the morning and continuing through much
of the day with the winds diminishing in the evening.
Outlook...
Wednesday to Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As a weak storm moves up the coast and into New England, a wetting
rainfall is expected for many areas, especially east of the Hudson
Valley. With clouds and rain today, RH values will only be as low
as 55 to 75 percent, mainly for this morning before rain picks up
in coverage/intensity. North to northeast winds will be 5 to 10
MPH.
RH values will stay elevated tonight with light winds. On
Wednesday, clouds will break for some sunshine, mainly for valley
areas. RH values will fall to 50 to 65 percent in the afternoon
with west winds of 5 to 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A storm system moving up the coast to the east of the region will
bring some rain today into this evening, especially between the
late morning and afternoon hours. Most areas will see between a
quarter to half inch of rain, although the western Adirondacks may
see slightly lower amounts. A few spots in western New England may
see up to an inch of rain thanks to some locally heavier
downpours. This rainfall is much needed due to the recent very dry
conditions. Some smaller rivers/streams may have very minor rises,
but for the most part, flows will hold steady following this much
needed rainfall.
Although a stray lingering shower can`t be ruled out for western
areas on Wednesday, dry weather will return for Wednesday night through
Saturday. Another chance of rain will arrive with another frontal
boundary for Saturday night into Sunday.
The US Drought Monitor continues to have much of the area in the
D1 (Moderate Drought) to D2 (Severe Drought) categories. This
rainfall is helpful, but probably not enough to significantly
change these classifications this week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
334 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Quiet and mild weather continues today and tonight under the
influence of broad 500-mb ridging across the northern Plains.
Early day moisture channel (water vapor) imagery shows a short
wave trough moving through central Manitoba, and 00 UTC upper-
air analyses revealed an intense 150 kt 300 mb jet core on the
equatorward side of that wave from Seattle, WA to Glasgow, MT.
Forcing in the left-exit region of that jet streak drove high-
based shower activity in our area overnight, but that maximum
in high-level winds is forecast to weaken by daybreak. Radar
trends and HRRR simulations concurrently suggest the lingering
shower activity in east central ND will exit the area before 12
UTC as a weak cold front also completes its passage through the
area.
For today, we expect clearing skies thanks to subsidence tied to
weak height rises aloft and surface high pressure, which will be
in firm control today as it slowly crosses the area. Mixing may
be somewhat limited under the surface high, so temperatures are
more apt to fall in line with the 00 UTC multi-model consensus
than on previous days. We nonetheless tipped our hats slightly in
favor of warmer MOS guidance in respect to the sunshine, snow-
free ground and drying soils, and recent model biases related to
the latter conditions. Forecast highs thus range from the upper
40s F along the Canadian border to the upper 50s along the ND-SD
state line.
Tonight, a relatively rapid temperature fall is likely to occur
this evening even though the 00 UTC model consensus places the
surface high over the eastern Dakotas by that time. Low-level
drying today beneath the high and dry soils will likely favor a
temperature fall that`s greater than the model consensus, which
we have experienced several times in the last week. We therefore
relied on the cooler edge of the 00 UTC model guidance set to
build tonight`s temperature forecast, which calls for lows from
the upper 20s to lower 30s F. That being said, cloud cover will
likely increase through the night and combined with a ramp-up in
warm air advection, there is some uncertainty in our move to use
some of the colder guidance for the forecast. Finally, low PoPs
are being carried in the north tonight where the mid-level warm
air advection will be focused.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
All eyes remain on the possible late-week storm system which we
have been advertising with a cautious tone the last several days
due to the large degree of uncertainty in the details associated
with its evolution. However, our confidence is slowly growing as
the late week period moves inside the initial-condition-dominated
predictability horizon of model guidance.
More to the point, our confidence is slowly increasing that the
heaviest snowfall and strongest winds with the late-week system
may end up south and east of most of western and central ND.
Looking back at the last 24 hours of global model guidance, it
appears there`s a convergence toward a more common solution with
regard to the timing and path of the 700 to 500 mb lows that have
been forecast to develop on the High Plains Thursday night and
then eject northeast to the western Great Lakes by Friday night.
The 00 UTC GFS made a significant shift south and eastward with
those lows, taking the 500 mb circulation from Norfolk, Neb at 12
UTC Friday to Eau Claire, WI by Friday evening. The 00 UTC ECMWF
remained the fastest model simulation (and indeed is a fast out-
lier compared to the 12 UTC ECMWF ensemble members), but its mid-
and upper-level low tracks were relatively similar to the GFS, if
only a touch further southeast. There was also a significant shift
in the 00 UTC GFS ensemble members at points over western and most
of central ND toward a drier scenario, also suggesting that model
guidance is beginning to "lock in" to a common idea that may well
be an accurate one. As an example of that shift, at Bismarck, the
12 UTC GFS ensemble mean event-total QPF was around 0.60 inches,
but only one member of the 00 UTC GFS ensemble pack produced that
much QPF. The GFS ensemble mean at Bismarck is now only near 0.15
inches. Assuming an average 13 to 1 snow-to-liquid ratio, which is
reasonable since forecast thermal profiles with this system have
never been simulated to be cold enough for more than a small layer
in the favored dendritic growth zone, that means the GFS ensemble
mean has shifted from a potential 8 inch snowfall to a potential 2
inch snowfall at Bismarck as that particular ensemble system`s
most probable scenario. Our official forecast followed the global
model trends, and in fact since the simulations are also trending
faster with the wave passage, we actually have a dry forecast in
place during the day Friday over western and parts of central ND.
The highest chance of snow will be Thursday night over most of the
area per the 00 UTC multi-model consensus,
It appears that the shift and convergence in model simulations is
due to increasing sampling of the upper wave that was off of the
Alaskan Peninsula at 00 UTC. Moreover, from the standpoint of
teleconnections, recent in-house research has suggested an area of
positive 500 mb height anomalies should be observed north of
Alaska, but on this side of the globe, and downstream off of the
coast of Newfoundland, about 5 days before a western or central
ND blizzard. Currently-observed anomalies are a close, but not
exact fit to those teleconnections, which also may favor a close
call, but not a direct impact to the local area. Of course, we`re
not ready to make a final call on this situation yet, and even the
00 UTC multi-model consensus suggests headline-worthy snowfall may
impact the James River valley and perhaps south central ND, so we
are still urging everyone to check back with later forecasts.
Otherwise, the weather will quickly quiet down again this weekend
and into early next week, though it will be much colder with lows
in the teens very probable this weekend. A warming trend is then
forecast to resume by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 334 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2016
VFR conditions are forecast for the 06 UTC TAF cycle. Scattered
light rain showers will exit east central ND by 11 UTC as a weak
cold frontal passage occurs. Expect clearing of current mid- and
high-level ceilings this morning, leading to a mostly sunny day.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
318 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will extend into the area from the west through
Friday with above normal temps. A dry cold front will come
through Saturday, reinforcing dry conditions with cooler temps for
the weekend and into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Early this morning...Strong radiational cooling combined with
enhanced low level moisture beneath dry mid levels has resulted in
some fog across the region. Visibilities have also been reduced by
smoke from the wild fires over the southern Appalachians. A dense
fog advisory may be needed for the eastern portion of the area
later but confidence is low because stratus clouds are also
developing which could prevent the dense fog from maintaining or
forming. Smoke model forecasts show concentrations of smoke
increasing through the predawn hours so will continue the mention
of areas of smoke in the weather grids. Temperatures early this
morning are on track to with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Today...An upper trough will remain over the eastern part of the
country today while high pressure ridges into the area at the
surface. A relatively dry airmass will be over the area with
precipitable water values near half an inch. Skies will be mostly
sunny this afternoon. Smoke from the fires over the southern
Appalachians will spread into the area during the day, but should
see some diurnal improvement based on the HRRR. Downsloping winds
should result in mild afternoon temperatures despite thin smoke
aloft. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 60s to lower
70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Overnight, the axis of the upper trough will push east of the area
and off the coast by morning. At the surface, high pressure will
continue to be centered west of the area. Winds through the lower
layers of the atmosphere will be light, but generally out of the
west through the period. Because of this windflow pattern, the region
will be experiencing some lingering smoke from the southern Appalachian
fires. This will lead to smoky and hazy conditions. Airmass will
be dry tonight, and do not expect any widespread fog formation
with the smoke. Should see temperatures tonight and Wednesday
night in the lower 40s. Downsloping winds during the day on
Wednesday, along with plenty of sunshine, will help to bring
temperatures during the afternoon back up into the lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models in good agreement through Friday with building an upper
level ridge into the southeastern United States. At the surface,
the center of high pressure will be across the forecast area by
Friday. Airmass will continue to be dry through Friday night.
Temperatures will be above normal, with highs in the lower
70s. Models suggest a cold front will move through the region
Saturday afternoon/evening. It still appears as if moisture will
be limited with the frontal passage. Slight chance pops across the
north at best, with most areas remaining dry with this front.
Breezy conditions behind the front with moderately strong cold
advection pattern. Maximum temperatures mainly in the 50s Sunday
and Monday despite strong isolation. Freezing temperatures
possible Monday and Tuesday Mornings.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flight restrictions are expected at all terminals due to reduced
visibilities in smoke and fog. Smoke from wildfires over the
southern Appalachians spread into area on Monday and has become
trapped beneath the nocturnal inversion. Based on the HRRR smoke
forecast and USFS BlueSky modeling, the smoke should persist
through the early morning hours. Fog has also developed due to
elevated dew points, light winds, clear skies and dry air aloft.
As a result, the TAFs indicate MVFR or lower visibilities in smoke
through 06Z, then IFR or lower visibilities in fog enhanced by
smoke from 06-15Z. The expectation is that some diurnal
improvement should occur, and this is supported by some of the
smoke modeling, so visibilities return to MVFR by 15Z and VFR by
19Z. Restrictions may return to the terminals in smoke tonight
although confidence is low at this time.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Reduced visibilities in smoke/fog could
continue through Wednesday. Lower VSBYS would be expected late
night/morning, with some improvement in the afternoon due to
mixing.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
357 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
At 2 am, the weak cold front that pushed through the local area
Monday extended from southern Lake Michigan south across eastern IL.
In its wake, there was a light NW flow and weak cold air advection
pulling in a slightly cooler airmass. Satellite imagery showed a
trailing axis of low clouds over WI into east central IA, while
upstream, clear skies under a weak surface ridge axis over central
IA into southern WI, has lead to widespread fog. This fog was
beginning to develop over eastern IA, but so far the combination of
the passing stratus deck and NW winds around 6 to 8 kts has kept
visibilities mainly in a 3 to 5 mile range outside the quarter mile
reported just north of our forecast area in Olwein.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Initial focus is on the potential for dense fog early this morning,
then attention turns to temperatures.
The HRRR surface visibility fields and SREF visibility probs suggest
the greatest potential for dense fog this morning will be over east
central IA, mainly northwest of a line from roughly Sigourney to
Monticello around 4 am to 9 am. Conceptually, this makes sense as
this area will be closest to the approaching ridge and associated
weakening wind fields and radiational cooling under the pocket of
clear skies. Have added patchy fog for now and issued a special
weather statement patchy dense fog through the morning commute.
Will continue to monitor for the need for an advisory early this
morning. Satellite imagery shows an area of dissipating high clouds
topping the upper ridge axis from the northern plains into NW IA
rapidly spreading E-SE. This may hamper the on-going radiational
cooling and makes the fog forecast more challenging.
Later today, the ridge axis slides overhead, providing light winds
and mostly sunny skies. Highs will be only slightly lower than
Monday as the initially cooler airmass will be offset by a light
southerly return flow by afternoon. Tonight, another weak, dry front
pushes through in the evening with the ridge axis building back
overhead by morning. Fog is again suggested by the SREF under the
eastern side of the ridge axis over NW IL and have added patchy fog
wording toward sunrise. Much like tonight, will see mins from the
mid 30s to lower 40s under the mostly clear skies.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Overview: After near record highs on Thursday, a pattern change
to cooler weather is likely by this weekend continuing into next
week.
Wednesday and Thursday: Very warm for the middle of November in
the 60s on Wednesday, then upper 60s to mid 70s on Thursday (see
Climate Section for the daily records). Suite of models have a
995-1000mb sfc low tracking through western or central Iowa on
Thursday. Regardless of the exact strength and track, E Iowa/NW
Illinois will be in the warm sector of this system with 850mb
temps surging into the 14-18 C range or 2 standard deviations
above the mean. Consequently, it`s going to be breezy - southerly
winds sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph. The
highest winds are forecast along and south of I-80.
Friday and Saturday: Most significant weather impacts will be the
strong winds, and the much cooler temps by Friday night/Saturday.
Forecast highs on Saturday are in the lower 40s south to upper
30s north.
Precipitation: The sfc low is forecast to move into NW Wisconsin
on Friday bringing heavy precip to parts of Minnesota and
Wisconsin; however, significant precipitation is not expected for
E Iowa/NW Illinois because the low- level jet is veered to the WSW
causing less than optimal WV transport along the cold front. The
eastern CWA stands the best chance for showers and isolated storms
Friday morning into the early afternoon before a mature dry-slot
punches into the region from the SW as it wraps into the center of
the low. On the backside of the low, wrap around snow showers or
flurries are likely, especially across the NE half of the area
with the Quad Cities on the edge. No accumulation is expected at
this time.
Winds: WSW winds during the day Friday will veer to westerly
overnight. For now, trended SuperBlend toward raw model consensus
which yields 20-25 mph sustained winds and gusts of 30-35 mph
with potential for occasionally gusts near 40 mph. On Saturday, as
the sfc low reaches the Northern Great lakes, a strong pressure
gradient will reside to the W/SW. Cold air advection/isentropic
downglide should foster deep dry adiabatic profiles extending
from the sfc to above 850mb. There is some model uncertainty at
this lead time, but based on a conceptual model appropriate to
this synoptic setup, potential is there for gusts over 40 mph,
especially late Friday night into Saturday afternoon. GFS forecast
soundings mix up into 50 kt winds, something to monitor through
this week.
Sunday through Tuesday: Below average temps in the 30s and 40s
Sunday and Monday with lows in the 20s and upper teens most
areas. ECMWF/GFS differ with respect to timing and track of the
next area of low pressure Tuesday of next week. ECMWF is faster
and further north. Too early to say much else, except that there
may be another trough in the Midwest. Uttech
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016
Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Some patchy
fog with will be possible toward daybreak, for mainly portions of
east central and northeast Iowa especially in low lying areas where
winds will diminish ahead of a high pressure ridge building in. Have
mentioned light fog at CID being closest to the ridge axis and lower
temp/dewpt spreads... and have left out mention elsewhere for now where
confidence is low being further east from the ridge within light northwest
flow. Some low clouds will be found overnight into Tuesday morning, but
any cigs look to remain VFR and should be confined mostly n/ne of CID-MLI.
Otherwise, just some mid and high level cloudiness at times throughout
the TAF period. Winds will turn from the southwest by Tuesday afternoon
at 5-15 kts then shift to northwest Tuesday night with passage of a
surface trough.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Record Highs for November 17...
Moline.........74 in 1941
Cedar Rapids...73 in 1941
Dubuque........71 in 1941
Burlington.....75 in 1952
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sheets
SHORT TERM...Sheets
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...McClure
CLIMATE...Uttech
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Shower chances this morning and then temperatures will be the main
challenges for the period.
A fairly vigorous shortwave currently moving through the Red River
Valley has helped produce rain showers. The showers have been
quite a bit further south than originally expected, with most of
the activity spreading from the central and southern Red River
Valley into west central MN. The HRRR seems to have a decent
handle on current radar trends so followed it fairly closely
for the early morning hours. Think that our showers should exit
off to the east by 15Z or so this morning.
After the shortwave moves off to the east, we should have some
clearing skies later today, along with northwesterly winds picking
up on the backside of the surface trough. Some cold air advection,
but it is pretty weak and will be offset by sunshine. Will
continue to keep highs in the upper 40s to 50s across the CWA.
After some brief surface ridging this evening, winds will shift
back to the south tonight ahead of the next shortwave. The winds
along with increasing cloud cover will help keep temps in the 30s
although the eastern tier could see a few spots in the upper 20s
with lighter winds and clear skies a bit longer.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Wednesday through Thursday...Flow will start to become more
southwesterly on Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east. Weak
shortwave over the top of the ridge could bring some light rain
near the international border, but think that most of the precip
will be in Canada. By Thursday, the large upper trough will be
moving into the southern Rockies, then lifting into the central
Plains Thursday night. While trends have been further south and
east with the system, there is still considerable variation in how
the models handle the track of the surface low. Will continue to
keep high POPs and QPF over our southern counties, and with cold
temperatures coming along the backside of the low on Thursday
night, a changeover to snow will be likely. It will just be a
question of where the heaviest band falls.
Friday...Model spread still showing a wide range of possible
precipitation totals across the area. The trend in the solns has
shifted to the south and east as the more progressive ECMWF suite
continues to lead with the Canadian and even the 06Z NAM catching
on to this idea. During the day on Friday the 00z GFS operational
run indicates a stronger period of snowfall with q-vector
divergence lining up with frontogenetical forcing to create a
stronger band of snow on the back side of the system impacting
west central MN and the far eastern zones of the FA. As a result
the spread of solns across the east remains very large, leading to
low confidence in totals. Wheres the spread in the northern valley
and DVL basin has reduced, increasing confidence for less
impactful event.
Saturday to Monday will see an overall dry period as 500mb flow
transitions from the aforementioned storm system/trough to ridging
by Sunday. Another short wave will bring weak PoPs to the area
Monday with highs generally in the 30s and lows in the teens and
20s, which is quite normal for the third weekend of November.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2016
VSBY improving however ifr/lifr CIGS continue from valley east.
With winds becoming more sw expect improving conditions through
the afternoon to VFR by mid afternoon. Once clouds lift expect vfr
conditions through the remainder of the period.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...Speicher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
448 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure near the North Carolina coast will move
away from the area tonight. High pressure will build in from the
west Tuesday through Thursday, moving overhead Friday with mild
temperatures. A dry cold front will move through the area
Saturday, followed by much cooler weather for early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Dense fog advisory in effect for all
areas thru 9 am this morning.
This morning will start out with mainly foggy conditions across
the entire ILM CWA. The fog will likely be densest across the
ILM SC CWA this morning. This a result of the low stratus deck
from earlier having scoured and/or moved out of this area.
Across the ILM NC CWA, the low stratus cloud deck continues and
is slower to erode and has kept the fog from becoming dense.
However, latest IR 11-3.9 micron channel indicates the stratus
deck is thinning and also moving off the coast. As a result and
for the remainder of this morning, have indicated areas of fog,
with patches of dense, across the ILM NC CWA.
Using the hourly NAMBUFR soundings, the low level inversion
should break during the mid to late morning hours. Once it does,
the fog and low clouds will scour out and dissipate leaving a
mostly sunny sky by midday. The FA remains under troffiness
aloft with the upper trof axis progressing overhead by daybreak
Wednesday. At the sfc, weak high pressure will extend across the
area. Lack of any sfc pg, will keep winds 5 to 9 kt during the
day and nearly calm for tonight. Some drying will occur this
aftn but will not be enough to prevent fog development tonight.
Model soundings for tonight indicate a sfc based inversion to
develop after sunset. Winds will decouple and skies to remain
mostly clear, giving rise to decent rad cooling conditions.
Progged soundings indicate fog, and not low stratus, will
become the nights nemesis to motorists and aviators. Various
model mos guidance indicates max/min temps this period will be
near normal.
An Air Quality Alert message has been issued and involves 5 of
the ILM SC counties. This is at the request of the SOUTH
CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROL and is
valid thru midnight tonight. The reason for this message is due
to smoke emitted by the Appalachian Mountain wildfires being
picked up and transported to the east. There will be some
mixing and dilution occurring prior to this air reaching the
5 ILM SC counties. However, the fine particulate concentration
level as it crosses these 5 counties still may approach or
exceed unhealthy standards.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...The upper trof line will push off the
Carolina Coasts during Wednesday. Amplified upper ridging will
follow and affect the FA thru Friday Night. The south to north
upper ridge axis will reach the western Carolinas by late this
period. Any further progression eastward will depend on the
movement of the expansive cutoff low that develops over the
adjacent offshore Atlantic waters. At the sfc, a 1025+ mb high
pressure system will affect the area thruout this time period.
The high`s broad center will nearly be overhead by late Thu thru
Friday. Skies will be clear or mostly clear thruout this period
with possible high level moisture moving overhead by late Fri
due to the upper ridge axis nearly overhead. Max temperatures
this period will run near 70 at the beaches, and in the 70s
inland. Overnight lows mainly in the 40s with a few 50s at the
beaches. Only wx feature to watch out for will be the
possibility of fog, possibly dense, occurring each morning. This
a result of excellent rad cooling conditions and enough low
level moisture avbl.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Amplified ridge but with short wavelength
will be sandwiched across the East Coast Friday into Saturday before
being displaced by a deep upper low the latter half of the extended.
Friday and Saturday will feature above normal temperatures in the
70s with abundant sunshine. However, a significant cold front
approaching from the NW will being to spread cloudiness overhead
during Saturday. This front will dive across the Carolinas Saturday
night beneath the aforementioned upper low moving across the Mid-
Atlantic states. Strong cold advection will accompany this front,
but rainfall will be tough to achieve due to weak pre-frontal moist
advection. The stronger ECM does paint a few showers, especially
northern zones, Saturday night, so will continue with a SCHC for
POP, although this will remain sub-mentionable for D5/D6.
Thereafter, 850mb temps plummet to below zero and surface temps will
crash to well below normal Sunday and Monday, and freezing
minimum temperatures are possible.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 06Z...High confidence in IFR/LIFR through the overnight at all
terminals.
Broad trough of low pressure extending back from a surface low off
the VA coast is maintaining weak NE winds at the surface while high
pressure builds east from the Gulf Coast. SW flow atop this cool NE
flow is creating a very steep inversion, keeping moisture trapped
beneath it. Satellite imagery this morning shows widespread stratus
and fog expanding across the area, and expect all terminals to drop
to IFR or lower overnight. Local UPS fog procedures echo the HRRR
visibility forecasts for widespread fog, some of which is likely to
become 1/4SM or less. This will occur in conjunction with low
stratus at LIFR levels, and landing minimums may be exceeded tonight
at some of the local airports, most likely LBT and FLO. This
fog/stratus will be very slow to burn off Tuesday morning, and IFR
may persist well after daybreak before slowly eroding as the drier
air within high pressure builds down and breaks the inversion. Winds
through the period will be light and variable, although a
predominantly W/NW flow will develop late in the valid period.
Extended Outlook...VFR. A cold front may bring a few showers
Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Weak high pressure to prevail across the
area waters this period. The progged sfc pressure pattern will
yield mainly a W to NW wind direction. The sfc pg will remain
loosened and this will yield 10 to 15 kt early this morning
across the outer waters, dropping to around 10 kt or less this
aftn thru tonight. Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft today and
drop to around 2 ft tonight. The seas will be a combination of
a 6 to 7 second period ese pseudo ground swell and a 3 to 4
second period wind waves.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Wednesday will be another benign winds
and significant seas day with NW winds 10 kt or less and 2 foot
seas. A weak boundary moves across the waters Wednesday night.
Much stronger high pressure will follow for Thu thru Thu night
with the center of the high remaining west of the area waters.
The sfc pressure pattern and semi tightened gradient will yield
N to NNE winds around 15 kt initially on Thu then drops back to
around 10 kt or 10 to 15 kt Thu night. Significant seas will run
2 to occasionally 3 ft. The ESE 1 to 2 foot ground swell at 8 to
9 second periods will dominate Wednesday, then mix with 3 to 5
second period wind waves on Thu.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Broad high pressure along the coast Friday
will shift offshore ahead of a cold front which will cross the
waters during Saturday. Winds ahead of this front will initially be
from the North around 10 kts before briefly turning to the W/SW
early Saturday as the high shifts offshore. Gusty NW winds will
follow the FROPA beginning late on Saturday, with speeds increasing
to 15-25 kts. Seas of 2-3 ft early Friday will fall as the high
moves overhead, but then increase quickly with the gusty winds
Saturday night up to 3-5 ft. An SCA may be required beginning late
Saturday and extending beyond this period.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023-
024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ087-096-
099-105>110.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ106-
108-110.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to noon EST
today for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...JDW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
504 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 503 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from
the sw CONUS into the wrn plains resulting in wnw flo from srn
Canada to the nrn Great Lakes. An upstream shortwave trough extending
from srn Manitoba into ern North Dakota supported areas of light
rain from nw Ontario into nw MN. At the surface, a trough extended
into the ern Dakotas from low pres over over nrn Manitoba. IR loop
and sfc obs showed extensive low clouds over Upper Michigan as
abundant low level moisture persists over the region as a weak
ridge with mid level drying moves over the area.
Today, although the strongest 700-300mb qvector conv with the
shortwave moving into the region will remain to the north of the
cwa, expect that it will be strong enough to support sct showers
into the west by late morning and through cntrl Upper Michigan
during the afternoon. However, rainfall amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch. With weak WAA into the
afternoon, max temps will remain above normal with highs around 50.
Tonight, expect the showers over the east half of the cwa in the
evening to move out between 03z-06z. With partial clearing late over
the west, temps could drop to near 30. Otherwise, the clouds will
keep min readings generally in the mid 30s to around 40.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 346 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016
A zonal Pacific airflow wl continue the relatively warm and mainly
dry wx for Wed into Thu. But later in the week the pattern is
expected to amplify, as a stronger disturbance/low pres system lifts
ne from the Four Corners region and brings in some pcpn on Fri and
likely some accumulating lake effect snow in its wake next weekend.
Wed/Thu...Large scale ridging/subsidence in the wake of Tuesday`s
departing shortwave wl bring a drying trend by Wed. As the sfc ridge
axis shifts to the e on Wed and the wind shifts to the sw,
increasing waa clouds are expected later Wed into Thu but dry
conditions will persist. Unseasonably warm Pacific air wl continue
to dominate during this time with h85 temps rising as high as 6-8C
Wed night into Thu.
Fri into Sun...Longer range models continue to display some
variability on the track...timing and intensity of the shortwave/sfc
low pres emerging from the Four Corners region of the CONUS and
tracking ne thru the Plains and toward the western Great Lakes. The
GFS model after showing good run-to-run continuity on a slower
solution the past several days has now trended 6-12 hours quicker on
its 00z run taking the sfc low through western Upper Mi Fri
evening/early overnight and then into central Upper Mi by 12z Sat.
The 00z GFS still remains about 12 hours slower than the 12z ECMWF
run, but both indicate a similar storm track. The Canadian model run
has also trended farther west on its 00z run and shows a similar
track/timing than the 00z GFS although it is slightly farther east.
Given that the models appear to be converging on a similar track,
forecast confidence increases although timing of system remains in
question, and will affect timing changeover from rain to snow. Given
quicker timing trend of the 00z GFS would expect the bulk of
synoptic pcpn to be mostly in form of rain for our area late Thu
night into Fri evening, but then expect a quicker transition to lake
enhanced/lake effect snow for late Fri night in the far west and
across the rest of the cwa Sat morning into early afternoon as
instability increases dramatically with h85 temps dropping as cold as
-15c by late Sat night into Sunday. Several inches of lake effect
snow accumulation in the northwest wind snow belts of Lake Superior
certainly looks possible from late Fri night into Sunday morning
before the snow tapers off from west to east on Sun with weakening
cyclonic northerly flow and increasing ridging/subsidence from the
north and west. Would not be surprised if some counties in nw
snowbelts push advisory criteria snowfall of 4 or more inches in a
12 hour period. Heaviest snow looks like it would occur from late
Fri night into Sat for the western counties and Sat into early
Sunday for the rest of the cwa.
Along with the potential for the first widespread accumulating snow
of the season, the other big part of the story with this storm
system will be the wind and cold. With the influx of cold air
beginning in the far west late Fri night and spreading east on Sat,
the corresponding increase in instability will also increase mixing
to allow for strong and gusty nw winds to develop. GFS soundings
indicate the potential for a period of storm force winds over the
east half and north central portions of Lake Superior from mainly
Sat afternoon through Sat evening. High wind warning criteria gusts
to near 60 mph would also be possible from over the tip of the
Keweenaw Peninsula to Lake Superior shoreline areas east of
Marquette over roughly the same time period. A period of wind
advisory gusts of 45 to 50 mph seem a good bet across much of the
rest of the cwa from Sat into Sat evening. The combination of the
snow, falling temps and strong winds will be a rude awakening after
the above normal fall temps experienced thus far, and headlines will
likely be needed across much of the region. Also expect wind chills
to plummet through the teens over the west half Sat afternoon and
across the entire U.P. on Sat night.
Sun night into Mon...Lake effect snow and nw winds will continue to
slowly diminish through this period as gradient slackens on backside
of departed storm system and sfc ridge axis continues to move in from
the west. Lake effect snow will hang on longer over the east half of
the cwa due to slower diminishment of nw winds and longer fetch
across the eastern half of Lake Superior, so as a result there could
be some additional minor snow accumulations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1255 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016
A shallow moist lyr/weak llvl ne slowly veering toward the s flow wl
result in plenty of lo clds early this mrng. The best chc for the
more persistent lower IFR cigs wl be at SAW, where the llvl flow
direction wl present a greater upslope component. As the flow veers
further toward the ssw on Tue mrng ahead of an aprchg lo pres trof,
expect improving conditions to VFR at SAW and IWD, where this flow
wl downslope. Best chc for the more persistent MVFR conditions wl be
at CMX, the location farthest to the n where the longer upglide/waa
wl improve the chances for deeper saturation. A wshft to the w
behind a passing lo pres trof and upslope wind component wl maintain
the MVFR cigs at CMX while SAW and IWD remain VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 253 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016
Northeast winds to around 20 knots will diminish tonight to less
than 10 knots as a ridge builds into the area. Northwest winds may
increase to 30 knots by Tuesday night behind a trough moving through
the region. The next chance for gales, especially over the wrn lake,
is expected by late Thursday night into Friday as northeast winds
increase in response to a deep low pressure system approaching from
the plains. While uncertainty remains with the track of that
low...there could be some high end north to northwesterly gales or
even storm force winds Saturday into Sunday as the low exits the
Upper Great Lakes.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...MZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1012 PM PST Mon Nov 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Low clouds and patchy dense fog along the coast and
near the Bays will move back into the valleys during the evening
and overnight hours. The tail end of a weakening cold front
moving into northern California overnight will likely bring some
light rain to portions of the North Bay Tuesday morning, and rain
chances elsewhere through the day. Unsettled weather with
continuing shower chances will persist through Wednesday. Dry and
seasonable weather returns Thursday and Friday, but with cooler
overnight lows. More significant and widespread rainfall appears
on tap for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As of 8:55 PM PST Monday...Fog and low clouds were
slow to clear from around San Francisco Bay today. As a result,
high temperatures near the Bay were as much as 9 degrees cooler
than temps over the weekend. Cooling also occurred near the ocean.
Inland areas remained relatively warm.
Evening satellite and surface observations shows that areas of low
clouds and fog continue, mainly across coastal areas south of San
Francisco and into the Salinas Valley. Surface dewpoints this
evening are similar to last evening, so it`s likely that fog will
become more widespread overnight, with patchy dense fog once again
possible from late tonight into Tuesday morning.
An upper trough currently located off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest is moving slowly to the east-southeast this evening. An
associated cold front will move into northwest California
overnight and will likely spread light rain into the northern
portion of our forecast area late tonight and Tuesday morning.
The frontal boundary is forecast to rapidly weaken as it pushes
into our region on Tuesday morning. In fact, the latest HRRR model
shows rain developing only across coastal section of Sonoma and
Marin Counties through late Tuesday morning. The 00Z WRF is similar,
although earlier runs of the WRF showed light rain reaching as far
south as northwest Monterey County by early Tuesday afternoon. In
any case, the general idea here is that rainfall amounts on
Tuesday are expected to be very light (generally less than a tenth
of an inch) and mostly confined to coastal areas.
The cool upper trough following the dissipating cold front is set
to track across northern California late Tuesday Night and
Wednesday. The model consensus now is for very little
precipitation with the upper trough, perhaps just a few isolated
showers. The trough will spread a much cooler airmass across our
region by midweek. Some of the wind protected inland valleys may
see patchy frost by Thursday morning and again on Friday morning.
From previous discussion...Rain chances return for the weekend
with longer range models in good agreement in renewed, and
stronger, upper level trough development along the West Coast.
Details vary significantly between solutions however, with the 18Z
GFS showing rainfall totals of 1.5 to 4.25 inches by Monday
morning (which would locally mean quite a bit more given the
limited topographic resolution of the available model output) --
but in contrast the latest run of the Canadian model less than an
inch across most of our area, with the ECMWF solution intermediate
between the two. Similar variations exist in the timing.
&&
.AVIATION...As of 9:50 PM PST Monday...For the 06Z TAFS...Low
clouds filling in quickly around the southern half of the San
Francisco Bay and down the Santa Clara Valley which will soon
affect area terminals. Low clouds and fog also prevail around the
Monterey Bay Area and down the Salinas valley. Confidence remains
low as to how widespread the fog will be but the boundary layer
remains very moist and shallow dense fog is likely over Bay Area
valleys.
Low confidence.
Vicinity of KSFO...Low clouds are expected to fill in overnight
with localized dense fog possible due to the abundance of low
level moisture. Confidence is low as to how long lived or
widespread the fog will be. Cigs anticipated to lift between 18z-
21z Tuesday morning.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR cigs prevail across Monterey Bay
area terminals with a gradual decline in vsbys expected through
tonight. Ceiling anticipated to lift between 17z-20z Tuesday
morning. Low confidence.
&&
.MARINE...as of 9:00 PM PST Monday...Areas of fog expected along
the coast tonight mainly south of the golden gate. A cold front
will move through the waters Tuesday with increasing NW winds by
the afternoon and evening. Behind the front a large NW swell will
impact the area through midweek.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema/Blier
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
919 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
As a weak storm moves up the coast into New England,
periods of light rain are expected during the day on today,
especially for areas east of the Hudson Valley. With the clouds and
expected rainfall, temperatures will be cooler than recent days.
Behind this storm, temperatures will return to being above normal
for the remainder of the week, with mainly dry weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 900 AM EST...Leading edge of the rain was advancing
northwestward through the Mid Hudson Valley, Catskills, Northwest
Connecticut and quickly approaching I90 corridor. Surface low was
just south of Long Island as latest IR Satellite imagery reveals
quickly cooling cloud tops in the vicinity of NYC. Several
lightning strikes are also noted as the rain shield is expanding.
Per the latest RAP13/HRRR, seems some adjustments to the PoP/Wx
grids are in order as we will increase both in time and coverage
the rainfall through most of eastern NY into western New England.
Seems the TROWAL and Deformation zone will line up over most of
eastern NY as we will need to watch for convective trends into
western New England where recent hourly RAP updates continue to
drop the Showalter Index values below zero. If these trends
become more apparent, we will introduce thunder to the grids with
the next update.
As for rainfall amounts, also increased those values further
westward.
Temperatures today will be cooler than recent days with highs
generally in the 40s. A few spots (such as in northwestern parts
of the area) may see highs around 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Steady rainfall in the evening will taper off to showers by late
this evening into tonight as the low pressure area continues to
lifts towards northern New England. Still, the upper level trough
overhead and cyclonic flow in place could allow for a few
additional rain showers, especially for northern and eastern parts
of the area. It will remain cloudy overnight, as low-level
moisture will be trapped beneath an inversion. Lows will only be
in the mid to upper 30s.
With the upper trough still overhead, there will be more clouds
than sun for Wednesday, although some breaks will occur from time
to time for valley areas. There could be a few additional light
rain showers or sprinkles across western areas thanks to the
passing upper level trough, but it should be dry for most of the
day. Highs will be milder once again, with temperatures reaching
into the 50s for valley areas.
As the upper level through starts to slide eastward, strong upper
level ridging will build into the area for the remainder of the
work week, as a large area of surface high pressure dominates
much of the eastern US. This will allow for dry weather with
clearing skies for Wed night through Thursday Night. Temps aloft
will be warming, allowing for above-normal daytime highs.
Overnight lows on Wed/Thurs nights will generally be in the 30s
and highs on Thursday look to reach the upper 40s to upper 50s
across the area. Most spots will see highs of 5 to 10 degrees
above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Guidance is in agreement that the longwave pattern will be amplified
across the CONUS through the period. A strong low pressure system is
expected to have formed over the Plains and is forecast to be moving
into the Great Lakes region as we close out the week and head into
the weekend. It`s expected that high pressure across our region will
be weakening as we are squeezed between the system moving across the
Great Lakes and a storm located around 500 miles east of Montauk
Point resulting in fair and mild weather; highs in the 50s and lows
in 30s. It appears the Great Lakes system should occluded as its
cold front moves eastward across the Northeast Saturday night into
Sunday with showers, mainly rain, expected across the area.
The uncertainty in the forecast grows as the upper trough is expected
to become negatively tilted with an low developing over the region
by late in the weekend and how it interacts with the offshore storm.
The indications are the coastal storm will be drawn westward and will
consolidated into a low over New England which should lift northward
through early in the week. This set up will have cyclonic flow across
the region drawing colder air across the relatively warm water of the
Great Lakes resulting in lake enhanced rain/snow showers.
Temperatures are anticipated to run below normal as we head into
Thanksgiving weekend with highs only in upper 20s to lower 40s Monday
along with brisk and gusty winds.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An area of low pressure located off the Delmarva continues to
head northward. Pressure falls are occurring just to its north
south of Long Island. Clouds will continue to thickening and
lowering this morning as rain overspreads TAF sites during the day
with conditions lower to MVFR during the morning at KPOU, by
afternoon at KPSF, in the early afternoon at KALB and by late
afternoon at KGFL. The steadiest rainfall is expected this
afternoon into the evening as the low moves into New England. A
period of IFR conditions are expected at KPOU and KPSF. The rain
is expected to end from southwest to northeast during the evening
hours into the overnight with MVFR conditions lingering with IFR
at KPSF.
A light north to northeast flow will develop this morning and
continuing through much of the day with the winds diminishing in
the evening.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As a weak storm moves up the coast and into New England, a wetting
rainfall is expected for many areas, especially east of the Hudson
Valley. With clouds and rain today, RH values will only be as low
as 55 to 75 percent, mainly for this morning before rain picks up
in coverage/intensity. North to northeast winds will be 5 to 10
MPH.
RH values will stay elevated tonight with light winds. On
Wednesday, clouds will break for some sunshine, mainly for valley
areas. RH values will fall to 50 to 65 percent in the afternoon
with west winds of 5 to 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A storm system moving up the coast to the east of the region will
bring some rain today into this evening, especially between the
late morning and afternoon hours. Most areas will see between a
quarter to half inch of rain, although the western Adirondacks may
see slightly lower amounts. A few spots in western New England may
see up to an inch of rain thanks to some locally heavier
downpours. This rainfall is much needed due to the recent very dry
conditions. Some smaller rivers/streams may have very minor rises,
but for the most part, flows will hold steady following this much
needed rainfall.
Although a stray lingering shower can`t be ruled out for western
areas on Wednesday, dry weather will return for Wednesday night through
Saturday. Another chance of rain will arrive with another frontal
boundary for Saturday night into Sunday.
The US Drought Monitor continues to have much of the area in the
D1 (Moderate Drought) to D2 (Severe Drought) categories. This
rainfall is helpful, but probably not enough to significantly
change these classifications this week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/BGM
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1000 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
The forecast was updated with the latest observations. No major
changes were made.
UPDATE Issued at 555 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Quick update to increase cloud cover this morning per IR satellite
trends through 11 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Quiet and mild weather continues today and tonight under the
influence of broad 500-mb ridging across the northern Plains.
Early day moisture channel (water vapor) imagery shows a short
wave trough moving through central Manitoba, and 00 UTC upper-
air analyses revealed an intense 150 kt 300 mb jet core on the
equatorward side of that wave from Seattle, WA to Glasgow, MT.
Forcing in the left-exit region of that jet streak drove high-
based shower activity in our area overnight, but that maximum
in high-level winds is forecast to weaken by daybreak. Radar
trends and HRRR simulations concurrently suggest the lingering
shower activity in east central ND will exit the area before 12
UTC as a weak cold front also completes its passage through the
area.
For today, we expect clearing skies thanks to subsidence tied to
weak height rises aloft and surface high pressure, which will be
in firm control today as it slowly crosses the area. Mixing may
be somewhat limited under the surface high, so temperatures are
more apt to fall in line with the 00 UTC multi-model consensus
than on previous days. We nonetheless tipped our hats slightly in
favor of warmer MOS guidance in respect to the sunshine, snow-
free ground and drying soils, and recent model biases related to
the latter conditions. Forecast highs thus range from the upper
40s F along the Canadian border to the upper 50s along the ND-SD
state line.
Tonight, a relatively rapid temperature fall is likely to occur
this evening even though the 00 UTC model consensus places the
surface high over the eastern Dakotas by that time. Low-level
drying today beneath the high and dry soils will likely favor a
temperature fall that`s greater than the model consensus, which
we have experienced several times in the last week. We therefore
relied on the cooler edge of the 00 UTC model guidance set to
build tonight`s temperature forecast, which calls for lows from
the upper 20s to lower 30s F. That being said, cloud cover will
likely increase through the night and combined with a ramp-up in
warm air advection, there is some uncertainty in our move to use
some of the colder guidance for the forecast. Finally, low PoPs
are being carried in the north tonight where the mid-level warm
air advection will be focused.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
All eyes remain on the possible late-week storm system which we
have been advertising with a cautious tone the last several days
due to the large degree of uncertainty in the details associated
with its evolution. However, our confidence is slowly growing as
the late week period moves inside the initial-condition-dominated
predictability horizon of model guidance.
More to the point, our confidence is slowly increasing that the
heaviest snowfall and strongest winds with the late-week system
may end up south and east of most of western and central ND.
Looking back at the last 24 hours of global model guidance, it
appears there`s a convergence toward a more common solution with
regard to the timing and path of the 700 to 500 mb lows that have
been forecast to develop on the High Plains Thursday night and
then eject northeast to the western Great Lakes by Friday night.
The 00 UTC GFS made a significant shift south and eastward with
those lows, taking the 500 mb circulation from Norfolk, Neb at 12
UTC Friday to Eau Claire, WI by Friday evening. The 00 UTC ECMWF
remained the fastest model simulation (and indeed is a fast out-
lier compared to the 12 UTC ECMWF ensemble members), but its mid-
and upper-level low tracks were relatively similar to the GFS, if
only a touch further southeast. There was also a significant shift
in the 00 UTC GFS ensemble members at points over western and most
of central ND toward a drier scenario, also suggesting that model
guidance is beginning to "lock in" to a common idea that may well
be an accurate one. As an example of that shift, at Bismarck, the
12 UTC GFS ensemble mean event-total QPF was around 0.60 inches,
but only one member of the 00 UTC GFS ensemble pack produced that
much QPF. The GFS ensemble mean at Bismarck is now only near 0.15
inches. Assuming an average 13 to 1 snow-to-liquid ratio, which is
reasonable since forecast thermal profiles with this system have
never been simulated to be cold enough for more than a small layer
in the favored dendritic growth zone, that means the GFS ensemble
mean has shifted from a potential 8 inch snowfall to a potential 2
inch snowfall at Bismarck as that particular ensemble system`s
most probable scenario. Our official forecast followed the global
model trends, and in fact since the simulations are also trending
faster with the wave passage, we actually have a dry forecast in
place during the day Friday over western and parts of central ND.
The highest chance of snow will be Thursday night over most of the
area per the 00 UTC multi-model consensus,
It appears that the shift and convergence in model simulations is
due to increasing sampling of the upper wave that was off of the
Alaskan Peninsula at 00 UTC. Moreover, from the standpoint of
teleconnections, recent in-house research has suggested an area of
positive 500 mb height anomalies should be observed north of
Alaska, but on this side of the globe, and downstream off of the
coast of Newfoundland, about 5 days before a western or central
ND blizzard. Currently-observed anomalies are a close, but not
exact fit to those teleconnections, which also may favor a close
call, but not a direct impact to the local area. Of course, we`re
not ready to make a final call on this situation yet, and even the
00 UTC multi-model consensus suggests headline-worthy snowfall may
impact the James River valley and perhaps south central ND, so we
are still urging everyone to check back with later forecasts.
Otherwise, the weather will quickly quiet down again this weekend
and into early next week, though it will be much colder with lows
in the teens very probable this weekend. A warming trend is then
forecast to resume by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Isolated pockets of MVFR stratus are possible across western and
central North Dakota this morning. Otherwise VFR conditions are
forecast for the 12 UTC TAF cycle.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...AYD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
820 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
The dense fog appears to have reached its overnight extent. High
clouds moving in overhead will delay the burn off. As a result,
the dense fog advisory has been extended in time and space. An
updated forecast will be available shortly.
UPDATE Issued at 528 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Fog has become dense across buchanan county over the past couple
hours and widespread dense fog was just west of the forecast area
border from Marshalltown to Ottumwa. This should expand eastward
over the next couple hours under the clear skies and have thus
issued a dense fog advisory until 9 am, which is matched by
advisories in place over central IA and northeast IA. The thinning Ci
seen on IR imagery advancing into the forecast area should allow
enough sunshine to lead to at least gradual improvement by mid
morning.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
At 2 am, the weak cold front that pushed through the local area
Monday extended from southern Lake Michigan south across eastern IL.
In its wake, there was a light NW flow and weak cold air advection
pulling in a slightly cooler airmass. Satellite imagery showed a
trailing axis of low clouds over WI into east central IA, while
upstream, clear skies under a weak surface ridge axis over central
IA into southern WI, has lead to widespread fog. This fog was
beginning to develop over eastern IA, but so far the combination of
the passing stratus deck and NW winds around 6 to 8 kts has kept
visibilities mainly in a 3 to 5 mile range outside the quarter mile
reported just north of our forecast area in Olwein.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Initial focus is on the potential for dense fog early this morning,
then attention turns to temperatures.
The HRRR surface visibility fields and SREF visibility probs suggest
the greatest potential for dense fog this morning will be over east
central IA, mainly northwest of a line from roughly Sigourney to
Monticello around 4 am to 9 am. Conceptually, this makes sense as
this area will be closest to the approaching ridge and associated
weakening wind fields and radiational cooling under the pocket of
clear skies. Have added patchy fog for now and issued a special
weather statement patchy dense fog through the morning commute.
Will continue to monitor for the need for an advisory early this
morning. Satellite imagery shows an area of dissipating high clouds
topping the upper ridge axis from the northern plains into NW IA
rapidly spreading E-SE. This may hamper the on-going radiational
cooling and makes the fog forecast more challenging.
Later today, the ridge axis slides overhead, providing light winds
and mostly sunny skies. Highs will be only slightly lower than
Monday as the initially cooler airmass will be offset by a light
southerly return flow by afternoon. Tonight, another weak, dry front
pushes through in the evening with the ridge axis building back
overhead by morning. Fog is again suggested by the SREF under the
eastern side of the ridge axis over NW IL and have added patchy fog
wording toward sunrise. Much like tonight, will see mins from the
mid 30s to lower 40s under the mostly clear skies.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Overview: After near record highs on Thursday, a pattern change
to cooler weather is likely by this weekend continuing into next
week.
Wednesday and Thursday: Very warm for the middle of November in
the 60s on Wednesday, then upper 60s to mid 70s on Thursday (see
Climate Section for the daily records). Suite of models have a
995-1000mb sfc low tracking through western or central Iowa on
Thursday. Regardless of the exact strength and track, E Iowa/NW
Illinois will be in the warm sector of this system with 850mb
temps surging into the 14-18 C range or 2 standard deviations
above the mean. Consequently, it`s going to be breezy - southerly
winds sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph. The
highest winds are forecast along and south of I-80.
Friday and Saturday: Most significant weather impacts will be the
strong winds, and the much cooler temps by Friday night/Saturday.
Forecast highs on Saturday are in the lower 40s south to upper
30s north.
Precipitation: The sfc low is forecast to move into NW Wisconsin
on Friday bringing heavy precip to parts of Minnesota and
Wisconsin; however, significant precipitation is not expected for
E Iowa/NW Illinois because the low- level jet is veered to the WSW
causing less than optimal WV transport along the cold front. The
eastern CWA stands the best chance for showers and isolated storms
Friday morning into the early afternoon before a mature dry-slot
punches into the region from the SW as it wraps into the center of
the low. On the backside of the low, wrap around snow showers or
flurries are likely, especially across the NE half of the area
with the Quad Cities on the edge. No accumulation is expected at
this time.
Winds: WSW winds during the day Friday will veer to westerly
overnight. For now, trended SuperBlend toward raw model consensus
which yields 20-25 mph sustained winds and gusts of 30-35 mph
with potential for occasionally gusts near 40 mph. On Saturday, as
the sfc low reaches the Northern Great lakes, a strong pressure
gradient will reside to the W/SW. Cold air advection/isentropic
downglide should foster deep dry adiabatic profiles extending
from the sfc to above 850mb. There is some model uncertainty at
this lead time, but based on a conceptual model appropriate to
this synoptic setup, potential is there for gusts over 40 mph,
especially late Friday night into Saturday afternoon. GFS forecast
soundings mix up into 50 kt winds, something to monitor through
this week.
Sunday through Tuesday: Below average temps in the 30s and 40s
Sunday and Monday with lows in the 20s and upper teens most
areas. ECMWF/GFS differ with respect to timing and track of the
next area of low pressure Tuesday of next week. ECMWF is faster
and further north. Too early to say much else, except that there
may be another trough in the Midwest. Uttech
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Fog developing under a surface ridge axis in place over central IA
and northeast IA continues to gradually expand east and
southeast, and appears likely to impact the CID terminal with
VLIFR conditions early in the forecast period. An area of IFR
clouds is likely to overspread DBQ early this morning, keeping
visibilities from dropping as low. MLI and BRL will have lower
confidence trends, but for now appear on track to see at least a
several hour period of MVFR and possible IFR conditions due to fog
early this morning. By 16z, all sites should see an improvement
to VFR conditions, which should prevail through the rest of the
forecast period along with light surface winds.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Record Highs for November 17...
Moline.........74 in 1941
Cedar Rapids...73 in 1941
Dubuque........71 in 1941
Burlington.....75 in 1952
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for Benton-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Iowa-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-
Keokuk-Linn-Washington.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...Sheets
SHORT TERM...Sheets
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Sheets
CLIMATE...Uttech
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
946 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Showers have exited the area so removed pops rest of the morning.
Made some minor cloud trend adjustments with remainder of the
forecast ok.
UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Adjusted POPs for current radar trends. Showers in the central and
southern valley continue to push eastward as a shortwave moves
through. Think a few showers will hang around in our southeastern
counties until mid morning before everything pushes off to the
east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Shower chances this morning and then temperatures will be the main
challenges for the period.
A fairly vigorous shortwave currently moving through the Red River
Valley has helped produce rain showers. The showers have been
quite a bit further south than originally expected, with most of
the activity spreading from the central and southern Red River
Valley into west central MN. The HRRR seems to have a decent
handle on current radar trends so followed it fairly closely
for the early morning hours. Think that our showers should exit
off to the east by 15Z or so this morning.
After the shortwave moves off to the east, we should have some
clearing skies later today, along with northwesterly winds picking
up on the backside of the surface trough. Some cold air advection,
but it is pretty weak and will be offset by sunshine. Will
continue to keep highs in the upper 40s to 50s across the CWA.
After some brief surface ridging this evening, winds will shift
back to the south tonight ahead of the next shortwave. The winds
along with increasing cloud cover will help keep temps in the 30s
although the eastern tier could see a few spots in the upper 20s
with lighter winds and clear skies a bit longer.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Wednesday through Thursday...Flow will start to become more
southwesterly on Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east. Weak
shortwave over the top of the ridge could bring some light rain
near the international border, but think that most of the precip
will be in Canada. By Thursday, the large upper trough will be
moving into the southern Rockies, then lifting into the central
Plains Thursday night. While trends have been further south and
east with the system, there is still considerable variation in how
the models handle the track of the surface low. Will continue to
keep high POPs and QPF over our southern counties, and with cold
temperatures coming along the backside of the low on Thursday
night, a changeover to snow will be likely. It will just be a
question of where the heaviest band falls.
Friday...Model spread still showing a wide range of possible
precipitation totals across the area. The trend in the solns has
shifted to the south and east as the more progressive ECMWF suite
continues to lead with the Canadian and even the 06Z NAM catching
on to this idea. During the day on Friday the 00z GFS operational
run indicates a stronger period of snowfall with q-vector
divergence lining up with frontogenetical forcing to create a
stronger band of snow on the back side of the system impacting
west central MN and the far eastern zones of the FA. As a result
the spread of solns across the east remains very large, leading to
low confidence in totals. Wheres the spread in the northern valley
and DVL basin has reduced, increasing confidence for less
impactful event.
Saturday to Monday will see an overall dry period as 500mb flow
transitions from the aforementioned storm system/trough to ridging
by Sunday. Another short wave will bring weak PoPs to the area
Monday with highs generally in the 30s and lows in the teens and
20s, which is quite normal for the third weekend of November.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Have -RA mention at KFAR and VCSH at KBJI for scattered showers
moving through. Rain should be done by 15Z. All TAF sites are VFR
and will remain so throughout the period. The 6000-9000 ft
ceilings over most of the forecast area will push eastward later
this morning, leaving clear skies to a bit of cirrus. More mid
level clouds will move into the northern TAF sites late in the
period but ceilings will be fairly high. Winds will shift to the
northwest and have some gusts above 20 kts this afternoon, but
then become light and variable by the end of the period.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
645 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 503 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from
the sw CONUS into the wrn plains resulting in wnw flo from srn
Canada to the nrn Great Lakes. An upstream shortwave trough extending
from srn Manitoba into ern North Dakota supported areas of light
rain from nw Ontario into nw MN. At the surface, a trough extended
into the ern Dakotas from low pres over over nrn Manitoba. IR loop
and sfc obs showed extensive low clouds over Upper Michigan as
abundant low level moisture persists over the region as a weak
ridge with mid level drying moves over the area.
Today, although the strongest 700-300mb qvector conv with the
shortwave moving into the region will remain to the north of the
cwa, expect that it will be strong enough to support sct showers
into the west by late morning and through cntrl Upper Michigan
during the afternoon. However, rainfall amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch. With weak WAA into the
afternoon, max temps will remain above normal with highs around 50.
Tonight, expect the showers over the east half of the cwa in the
evening to move out between 03z-06z. With partial clearing late over
the west, temps could drop to near 30. Otherwise, the clouds will
keep min readings generally in the mid 30s to around 40.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 346 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016
A zonal Pacific airflow wl continue the relatively warm and mainly
dry wx for Wed into Thu. But later in the week the pattern is
expected to amplify, as a stronger disturbance/low pres system lifts
ne from the Four Corners region and brings in some pcpn on Fri and
likely some accumulating lake effect snow in its wake next weekend.
Wed/Thu...Large scale ridging/subsidence in the wake of Tuesday`s
departing shortwave wl bring a drying trend by Wed. As the sfc ridge
axis shifts to the e on Wed and the wind shifts to the sw,
increasing waa clouds are expected later Wed into Thu but dry
conditions will persist. Unseasonably warm Pacific air wl continue
to dominate during this time with h85 temps rising as high as 6-8C
Wed night into Thu.
Fri into Sun...Longer range models continue to display some
variability on the track...timing and intensity of the shortwave/sfc
low pres emerging from the Four Corners region of the CONUS and
tracking ne thru the Plains and toward the western Great Lakes. The
GFS model after showing good run-to-run continuity on a slower
solution the past several days has now trended 6-12 hours quicker on
its 00z run taking the sfc low through western Upper Mi Fri
evening/early overnight and then into central Upper Mi by 12z Sat.
The 00z GFS still remains about 12 hours slower than the 12z ECMWF
run, but both indicate a similar storm track. The Canadian model run
has also trended farther west on its 00z run and shows a similar
track/timing than the 00z GFS although it is slightly farther east.
Given that the models appear to be converging on a similar track,
forecast confidence increases although timing of system remains in
question, and will affect timing changeover from rain to snow. Given
quicker timing trend of the 00z GFS would expect the bulk of
synoptic pcpn to be mostly in form of rain for our area late Thu
night into Fri evening, but then expect a quicker transition to lake
enhanced/lake effect snow for late Fri night in the far west and
across the rest of the cwa Sat morning into early afternoon as
instability increases dramatically with h85 temps dropping as cold as
-15c by late Sat night into Sunday. Several inches of lake effect
snow accumulation in the northwest wind snow belts of Lake Superior
certainly looks possible from late Fri night into Sunday morning
before the snow tapers off from west to east on Sun with weakening
cyclonic northerly flow and increasing ridging/subsidence from the
north and west. Would not be surprised if some counties in nw
snowbelts push advisory criteria snowfall of 4 or more inches in a
12 hour period. Heaviest snow looks like it would occur from late
Fri night into Sat for the western counties and Sat into early
Sunday for the rest of the cwa.
Along with the potential for the first widespread accumulating snow
of the season, the other big part of the story with this storm
system will be the wind and cold. With the influx of cold air
beginning in the far west late Fri night and spreading east on Sat,
the corresponding increase in instability will also increase mixing
to allow for strong and gusty nw winds to develop. GFS soundings
indicate the potential for a period of storm force winds over the
east half and north central portions of Lake Superior from mainly
Sat afternoon through Sat evening. High wind warning criteria gusts
to near 60 mph would also be possible from over the tip of the
Keweenaw Peninsula to Lake Superior shoreline areas east of
Marquette over roughly the same time period. A period of wind
advisory gusts of 45 to 50 mph seem a good bet across much of the
rest of the cwa from Sat into Sat evening. The combination of the
snow, falling temps and strong winds will be a rude awakening after
the above normal fall temps experienced thus far, and headlines will
likely be needed across much of the region. Also expect wind chills
to plummet through the teens over the west half Sat afternoon and
across the entire U.P. on Sat night.
Sun night into Mon...Lake effect snow and nw winds will continue to
slowly diminish through this period as gradient slackens on backside
of departed storm system and sfc ridge axis continues to move in from
the west. Lake effect snow will hang on longer over the east half of
the cwa due to slower diminishment of nw winds and longer fetch
across the eastern half of Lake Superior, so as a result there could
be some additional minor snow accumulations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016
Expect mainly MVFR conditions through today as low level moisture
persists over the area. A wshft to the w behind a passing lo will
bring drier air into the region with conditions lifting to VFR late
today at IWD and tonight at CMX and SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 510 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016
Southwest winds to 25 knots today will veer to nw tonight behind a
trough moving through the region. The next chance for gales,
especially over the wrn lake, is expected by late Thursday night into
Friday as northeast winds increase in response to a deep low pressure
system approaching from the plains. While uncertainty remains with
the track of that low...there could be some high end north to
northwesterly gales or even storm force winds Saturday into Sunday as
the low exits the Upper Great Lakes.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1032 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the Carolinas today, in
association with a broad upper level trough over the eastern United
States. Northwest flow aloft will develop late tonight and Wednesday
as an amplified upper level ridge over the Rockies expands east
across the Central Plains toward the Mississippi river valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Tuesday...
Morning update...
Fog and stratus over the coastal plain and southern Piedmont
areas are slowly eroding (more aggressively in the coastal
plain), though RAP soundings suggest a period of low strato cu
may develop as heating increases this morning. The overall
atmosphere is very dry and RH fields show all areas being cloud
free this afternoon, though some cirrus is possible given several
small amplitude shortwave rotating through the larger scale trough
aloft. The 1342m low-level thickness at GSO this morning supports
the mid 60s high temp forecast, so changes to highs will be minor.
Otherwise, no further changes are needed. -BS
Previous discussion
A broad upper level trough centered invof the southern Appalachians
this morning will amplify as it shifts toward the Southeast coast
today/tonight, in response to potent shortwave energy (as evidenced
by the presence of nocturnal convection in MS/TN at 08Z) digging SE
from the central MS river valley into the Deep South and NE GOMEX.
On the eastern periphery of the aforementioned trough, potent
shortwave energy lifting slowly N/NE toward the DELMARVA this
morning (same energy that tracked through central NC yesterday) will
continue to make slow progress along the Mid-Atlantic coast this
afternoon into tonight. Subsidence in the wake of the
aforementioned wave, along with the advection of a drier low-level
airmass into central NC via relatively weak (10-15 kt) SFC-925 mb
flow is expected to result in clearing skies today, with highs in
the 60s. Expect clear skies with lows in the mid/upper 30s to lower
40s tonight, warmest in the SE Coastal Plain. -Vincent
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...
Shortwave trough digging into the Western US will result in
downstream amplification of the Central US ridge as it builds east
into the region. At the surface, high pressure centered over the
Lower Ms Valley/Northern Gulf Coast States will shift east over the
area.
This will spell mild and dry weather conditions for the state. Highs
in the mid 60s north to around 70 south. Overnight lows in the upper
30s to lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...
The high-amplitude shortwave ridge over the East Coast will shift
offshore early Saturday in advance of a deepening shortwave trough
and attendant strong cold front emerging out of the nation mid-
section. Expect very warm temperatures ahead of this formidable
system, with highs Friday in the lower to mid 70s, and possibly
again on Saturday if the slower timing of the GFS verifies. Despite
the magnitude of this system, the late departure of the ridge axis
over the area will limit appreciable moisture recovery and thus
limit precip chances with only a narrow band of showers expected to
accompany the cold frontal passage during the day on Saturday.
The coldest air of the season is forecast to spill south into the
area on Sunday and lingering into early next week, underneath an
anomalously deep vortex over the Mid-Atlantic States/Northeast.
Highs Sunday and Monday could struggle to reach into the 50s across
northern portions of the piedmont and coastal plain. Highs 50 to 55.
Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 715 AM Tuesday...
24-hr TAF Period: Low stratus/fog affecting portions of central NC
early this morning are expected to dissipate between 13-15Z in
assoc/w the advection of a drier airmass into central NC from the
W/NW. After ~15Z, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the remainder of the TAF period, with a NW breeze at 7-12 kt
this afternoon becoming calm or light/variable tonight.
Looking Ahead: VFR conditions will rule tonight through the
remainder of the week in assoc/w an upper level ridge building over
the region from the west. -Vincent
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...VINCENT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
357 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the Southeast states tonight. A weak
trough of low pressure pushes through the Mid Atlantic and
Northeast states on Wednesday...with high pressure then building
over the local area Thursday and Friday. A strong cold front
pushes across the region Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts a broad upper level trough
over the Mid-Atlantic region. The upper level energy that brought
rain to the region yesterday is slowly lifting along the Northeast
coast. The associated surface low is centered just offshore of New
Jersey. A couple of vorticity maxima over the region indicated in
the RAP is resulting in some stubborn mid level clouds over the
region. The added cloud cover and northwest winds have kept
temperatures in check. Expect cloud cover to erode/dissipate late
today as a slightly drier air mass advects from the northwest and
the low level lapse rates decrease. Northwest winds decouple
tonight, allowing for great radiational cooling. Expect some
patchy fog to develop across south central Virginia into central
Virginia to the Piedmont late tonight. Lows drop into the mid to
upper 30`s inland to low to mid 40`s near the coast. Some patchy
frost is possible inland, where temperatures will drop into the
mid 30`s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Northern stream disturbance digs into the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday morning, with an associated weak cold front/wind shift
pushing through the local area Wednesday afternoon/evening. Height
falls are minimal ahead of the sheared vorticity lobe Wednesday.
Omega fields also indicate limited forcing for ascent. Moisture
will also be a limiting factor with precipitable waters progged
around one half to three quarters of an inch. Dynamics will likely
not be sufficient to overcome the limited moisture and dry sub-
cloud layer. Have retained silent POPs. Expect an increase in mid
level clouds across the northeast, with the sky averaging mostly
sunny southwest to partly cloudy/mostly cloudy northeast. Highs
generally in the low to mid 60`s. Shortwave pushes offshore late
Wednesday night as the front weakens/dissipates. A clearing sky is
expected, with lows generally in the upper 30`s to low 40`s inland
to mid to upper 40`s near the coast.
Heights build Thursday as an anomalous upper ridge builds over the
eastern US. Large scale confluence behind the departing trough
pulls surface high pressure into the region. 850Mb temperatures
warm to +10 to +12C (approaching +1 standard deviation) late
Thursday, but a subsidence inversion around 900-875mb Thursday
afternoon and northwest winds will help keep temperatures in
check. Highs forecast in the low to mid 60`s east to mid to upper
60`s west under a sunny sky. Clear Thursday night with lows in the
upper 30`s to low 40`s. The ridge axis locates over the Mid-
Atlantic region Friday as high pressure centers along the
Southeast coast. Return flow late Friday and 850mb temps warming
to +12 C per latest GEFS will push daytime temperatures into the
low 70`s inland (+1 standard deviation) and mid to upper 60`s neat
the coast. Dry conditions prevail under a sunny sky.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure ridge Friday evening will shift to the east of the
area by Saturday morning. A digging upper level trough will sweep
onto the Eastern Seaboard Saturday afternoon bringing a strong cold
front from across the area. Scattered showers are possible beginning
in the northwest Saturday afternoon and moving to the east Saturday
night and Sunday. Highest POPs are northern portions with 30 percent
POPS except up to 40 percent in the northeast Saturday night into
Sunday morning...diminishing Sunday afternoon. Dry weather returns
Sunday night through Tuesday as strong high pressure builds in from
the west.
Mild Saturday with highs 65 to 70 except low 60s on the Lower
Eastern Shore. Much cooler Sunday and Monday with highs within a few
degrees of 50 degrees. Slightly warmer Tuesday with maximums of 50
to 55. Lows 40 to 45 Saturday morning 35 to 40 Sunday morning and
upper 20s to mid 30s Monday and Tuesday mornings.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure south of Long Island will move northeast into New
England tonight and Wednesday. A weak cold front will cross the
region Wednesday night. High pressure builds into the area Thursday
and Friday. A strong cold front moves through the Mid Atlantic
States Saturday.
Patches of stratus were over much of eastern Virginia this morning
and were dissipating toward midday. Some scattered 25 hundred layers
may affect some TAF sites into mid afternoon. A clear sky will
prevail late this afternoon and tonight. Some hires models indicate
fog development across south central Virginia Wednesday morning.
This is reasonable given the recent rainfall and expected near calm
winds. Included MVFR at RIC around sunrise. Widespread IFR is not
indicated at this time. Any fog burns off quickly Wednesday morning
with a mainly clear sky and light winds expected.
OUTLOOK...A weak cold front or surface boundary Wednesday night will
be dry. VFR and dry conditions continue through Friday. There will
be a chance for showers late Saturday or Saturday night. More dry
weather returns Sunday but with MVFR ceilings possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds/waves continue to diminish as the low pressure off the New
Jersey coast moves NE and away from the area. A weak ridge of high
pressure builds across the area on Wednesday ahead of a weakening
cold front/trough moving through the area Wed evening. No weather
will be associated with this front. However, northwest winds
behind it will increase as a stronger ridge of high pressure
builds in for Thursday. The high centers itself over the middle
Atlantic for Fri into Saturday Morning before a strong cold front
moves through Saturday afternoon and night. Will need to watch for
NW gale force gusts possibly Saturday night into Sunday behind
this front.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MRD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
436 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move from south of Long Island this evening to
north of Boston, Massachusetts tonight, bringing periods of rain
to the area. Skies should gradually clear on Wednesday. Fair and
mild conditions are forecast Thursday into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 435 PM EST...areas of rainfall continue across all of the
forecast area except far northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties.
Radar shows the precipitation moving towards the north or
northwest. Temperatures are generally in the 40s except lower 50s
in the southern Adirondacks where there was some sunshine earlier
today. Latest RAP analysis shows low pressure responsible for the
rain near the southern shore of Long Island.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Steady rainfall in the evening will taper off to showers by late
this evening into tonight as the low pressure area continues to
lifts towards eastern New England. Still, the upper level trough
overhead and cyclonic flow in place could allow for a few
additional rain showers, especially for northern and eastern parts
of the area. It will remain cloudy overnight, as low-level
moisture will be trapped beneath an inversion. Lows will only be
in the mid to upper 30s.
With the upper trough still overhead, there will be more clouds
than sun for Wednesday, although some breaks will occur from time
to time for valley areas. There could be a few additional light
rain showers or sprinkles across western areas thanks to the
passing upper level trough, but it should be dry for most of the
day. Highs will be milder once again, with temperatures reaching
into the 50s for valley areas.
As the upper level through starts to slide eastward, strong upper
level ridging will build into the area for the remainder of the
work week, as a large area of surface high pressure dominates
much of the eastern US. This will allow for dry weather with
clearing skies for Wed night through Thursday Night. Temps aloft
will be warming, allowing for above-normal daytime highs.
Overnight lows on Wed/Thurs nights will generally be in the 30s
and highs on Thursday look to reach the upper 40s to upper 50s
across the area. Most spots will see highs of 5 to 10 degrees
above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A strong ridge of high pressure at both the surface and aloft
will bring fair and mild weather to the area Friday into Saturday.
Lows generally in the 30s with highs mainly in the 50s. With a
very dry atmospheric column, the lows both mornings could be 5-7
degrees colder than forecast with light winds and clear skies.
Uncertainty in the forecast grows as an upper trough is expected
to approach and become negatively tilted (12Z GFS) or cut off
south of the area (12Z Euro). GFS solution would bring a period of
rain followed by colder air and lake effect snows as colder air
get pulled in from Canada. Euro solution would imply a significant
snow storm for at least the northwest part of our forecast area.
GFS solution is also faster and would have some precipitation
reaching our area by later Saturday. WPC probabilistic guidance
has a 30-50 percent chance of accumulating snow Sunday into Monday
across the western part of the forecast area. For now, just put a
statement in our HWO for entire area mentioning the possibility of
accumulating snow Sunday into Monday. Lows on sunday in the 30s
with highs in the 30s and 40s. Lows on Monday from the Mid 20s to
low 30s and highs from the upper 20s to around 40.
By Tuesday, weather looks cold and brisk with northwest flow with
lake effect snows in the favored areas and snow flurries possible
across the rest of the area. Lows in the teens and 20s with highs
in the upper 20s to around 40.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deepening low approaching Long Island with an expanding area of
rain further west and north. This has resulted in IFR conditions
impacting KPOU which should spread northward through the afternoon
hours into KPSF-KALB. Late this afternoon into tonight, IFR
conditions should spread into KGFL. These flight restrictions
should remain in place tonight with slow improvements expected
during the daylight hours Wednesday.
Winds will generally be from the north at 10kts or less this
afternoon into this evening. Winds should become more
northwesterly tonight then westerly Wednesday morning.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night through Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Low pressure will move from south of Long Island this evening to
north of Boston, Massachusetts tonight, bringing periods of rain
to the area. Skies should gradually clear on Wednesday. Fair and
mild conditions are forecast Thursday into Saturday.
RH values will stay elevated tonight with light northerly winds.
On Wednesday, clouds will break for some sunshine, mainly for
valley areas. RH values will fall to 50 to 70 percent in the
afternoon with west winds of 5 to 15 MPH. Winds become
northwesterly and will diminish to 5 MPH or less Wednesday night
as RH values recover to near 100 percent.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall today has ranged from zero across far northern Herkimer
and Hamilton Counties to 1 to 2 inches across the eastern
Catskills and Mid Hudson valley. Further north the Albany Airport
has reported 0.66 inches as of 21Z.
Although a stray lingering shower can`t be ruled out for western
areas on Wednesday, dry weather will return for Wednesday night through
Saturday. Another chance of rain will arrive with another frontal
boundary for Saturday night into Sunday.
The US Drought Monitor continues to have much of the area in the
D1 (Moderate Drought) to D2 (Severe Drought) categories. This
rainfall is helpful, but probably not enough to significantly
change these classifications this week.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
311 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday/...
As mentioned in previous update discussion, main concerns are
fire weather forecast conditions and smoke trajectory/
concentration forecasts. Latest model guidance confirming
observed trends showing mid level clouds and what little precip
that is occurring dissipating quickly. Expect clear skies by late
evening. Surface winds will weaken but continue from the NW and
is expected to shift to more NW or NNW overnight. Flow in lowest
few thousand feet overnight will be strong enough to bring smoke
particulates back into Atlanta metro area and continue through
much of Wednesday. Does not appear from USFS and HRRR smoke model
guidance that concentrations will be as high as they were Monday
but too much uncertainty to rule that out, especially if fires
expand or intensify.
Georgia DNR EPD has issued Code Red for tomorrow for Atlanta Metro
areas, which is the only area that can have such alerts issued.
Outside of these areas, our special weather statement also
highlights the risk from smoke.
As the surface high pushes east, surface winds will become SE
Thursday. So should see a couple day break from the smoke until
flow becomes NW again.
Thursday will also see very warm temps with highs in the upper 70s
to around 80. Does not appear daily records will be broken
however. See climate section below.
No significant precip expected through early next week.
SNELSON
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
A few tweaks were made to the long term. Winds have been increased
a bit for Saturday into Sunday. New guidance showing winds stronger
during that time period. Have also reduced the slight chance area
for Saturday. Models continue to show a drying trend as the front
moves to the south. Otherwise the forecast looks on track.
41
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
&&
.CLIMATE...
Records for 11-17
Max Temperature Min Temperature
Station High Low High Low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 84 1958 44 1951 63 1930 25 1997
1984
1943
KATL 81 1985 42 1951 63 1930 22 1997
1958 1914 1890
KCSG 84 1958 47 1951 65 1986 22 1901
1921 1916 1929
KMCN 85 1964 48 1951 65 1986 22 1901
1958 1920 1957
1914
Records for 11-18
Max Temperature Min Temperature
Station High Low High Low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 80 1994 39 2014 63 1930 22 2014
1942
1938
KATL 80 1985 37 2014 63 1930 18 1891
2000 1928
KCSG 84 1985 42 2014 66 1986 26 2014
1951
KMCN 85 2013 42 2014 66 1986 23 2014
1957 1997
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values got close to critical thresholds this afternoon across
middle georgia. These will recover quickly. With abundant
sunshine, dry conditions and light NW winds. Conditions may
approach criteria Wednesday and will likely be met on Thursday
when daytime humidity drops to 20 to 30 percent across much of
the area. Will need to monitor this. Fortunately, winds will
remain light on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Primary concern is any chance for smoke or radiational cooling fog
reducing visibility. Do not expect IFR vsbys at ATL but other
airports could get close. Mid level clouds will clear after 06Z
tonight with SKC expected after.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence in smoke trajectory and concentration/
visibility forecast. High confidence for all other elements.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 46 70 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 49 70 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 41 64 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 43 69 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 50 73 47 78 / 5 0 0 0
Gainesville 48 68 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 45 73 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 43 71 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 45 71 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 46 72 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...SNELSON
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
356 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will move east of the region tonight.
High pressure will build into the area on Wednesday, as a large
mid-level ridge builds into the eastern half of the country
through the end of the week. This will bring warmer conditions
through Friday. A cold front will cross the area early Saturday,
leading to cooler temperatures over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A weak upper low is currently centered over Pennsylvania, helping
to clog up the longwave pattern at the moment -- though this is
going to be changing soon. A shortwave trough is moving east
across the northern Great Lakes, with a weak area of surface low
pressure currently passing through the southern Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. The weak forcing and dry air mass (precipitable
water of 0.36 inches on the 12Z KILN sounding) will keep rain from
developing, but a slowly-moving broken band of clouds will
continue to progress eastward tonight.
With these clouds moving out, and winds remaining very light,
radiational cooling conditions will be near-ideal overnight. Min
temps have been lowered with the latest forecast, and most of the
ILN CWA is now expected to fall into the upper 30s. Outlying
locations may reach the middle 30s. This is slightly lower than
both output guidance and SREF means. Based on this forecast and
an analysis of current dewpoints -- in addition to support from
HRRR projections -- some fog development appears likely tonight.
This will especially be true in river valleys, as well as across
most of the northwestern quarter of the forecast area. Patchy fog
has been included in the grids, and if current trends continue,
there may be some chance of dense fog going into early tomorrow
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As the shortwave currently moving through the Great Lakes gets
east of the area, ridging will quickly begin to build in on its
back side, with significant height rises and warm advection aloft
on Wednesday. It will take some time for boundary layer
temperatures to begin to rise, with max temps on Wednesday
appearing similar to (or just higher than) Tuesday. Neutral
surface advection will switch to warm advection by Thursday,
before really ramping up on Thursday night as the pressure
gradient tightens. This will combine with continued warm advection
aloft, as 850mb temperatures are forecast to go from about 5-6C
(18Z Wednesday) to about 13-14C (00Z Friday) over KILN. This will
result in a significant boost in max temperatures from Wednesday
to Thursday, and NAM/GFS soundings suggest values in the middle
60s (central Ohio) to around 70 (Cincinnati area). These values
are notably higher than any SREF members, which only peak out in
the mid 60s, and have a mean that is a solid 8-10 degrees below
the current forecast. This warmth is anomalous -- very close to
record temperatures at 850mb for mid-November, per SPC sounding
climatology. With that said, record highs appear safe for
Thursday.
Outside of the warming temperatures and the switch to southerly
flow, very little else is expected to occur during the short term
of the forecast. There are still a few discrepancies in the
models with regards to handling some leftover low level moisture
from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, with RHs
appearing rather high on the NAM. More than likely, skies will
remain mostly clear through this period, with cirrostratus sliding
in from the west by Thursday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Decent southerly flow on Friday will allow for well above normal
temperatures. Current forecast values are below record values. The
high temperature forecasts for Friday are CMH 71, CVG 71, and DAY
70. The record values are CMH 73 in 1954, CVG 76 1930, and DAY 75
1930.
A strong cold front will move through Friday night into Saturday
morning. Precipitation will move through with this feature. Expect
mainly rain, however some snowflakes will also be possible. Some
lingering precipitation will be possible through the day on Saturday
and also on Sunday with the upper trough and also some lake
enhancement. As colder air continues to move in later in the day on
Saturday expect most of the remaining precipitation to transition
over to snow showers. Precipitation will taper off Sunday evening
into Sunday night.
Winds will pick up with the cold front and remain gusty through the
weekend. Model soundings are indicating 30 to 35 knots Saturday
into Saturday night and with cold air advection scenarios this is
sometimes underdone. Expect the highest wind gusts Saturday into
Saturday night when wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible. A
few isolated higher gusts will be possible. Gusty winds of 25 to 35
mph will be possible on Sunday before decreasing. Mentioned wind
gusts in the HWO for locations north of Cincinnati.
High pressure and dry conditions will be present for Monday into
Monday night. Models diverge after this point with the GFS much
faster than the ECMWF in bringing precipitation into the area.
Trended with the slower ECMWF solution for now and only bring a
slight chance of rain showers into the area during the day on
Tuesday before increasing precipitation chances to the chance
category overnight Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak trough axis will push east through the region this
afternoon into this evening. Some moisture is associated with this
feature in the form of SCT-BKN 4000-7000 foot ceilings.
For tonight, skies should clear behind the trough axis, with
perhaps a few altocumulus and/or cirrus passing by into the early
morning hours.
The biggest forecast dilemma will be for the late night into
Wednesday morning. Some models indicate that perhaps the low
levels near the surface may saturate and form either low stratus
ceilings and/or fog, while others keep the low levels dry.
Confidence is low, and as such, have just placed some MVFR
visibilities at the terminals, except KLUK, where river fog will
likely form with typical near or below airport minimums.
On Thursday, a surface ridge of high pressure will build in from
the west. Any fog should burn off between 14Z and 16Z with just a
few cirrus clouds expected thereafter.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday night
and Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Hickman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
243 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
A surface trough axis currently analyzed from Minnesota to eastern
Kansas will push slowly eastward into Illinois tonight. With little
to no moisture to work with, am expecting no sensible weather with
the arrival of the trough. As winds become light/variable and skies
remain mostly clear, the potential exists for fog development
overnight. Both the 12z NAM and 16z Rapid Refresh soundings suggest
at least patchy fog...much like what was observed last night. HRRR
continues to favor northern Illinois into northern/central Indiana
for possible widespread dense fog, with only minor visby reductions
further southwest into the KILX CWA. Since the airmass remains
essentially unchanged, will follow a persistence forecast and
include patchy fog across much of central Illinois later tonight.
Once the fog dissipates, mostly sunny and warmer conditions will be
on tap for Wednesday. Surface winds will initially be light and
variable...then will become S/SE by late afternoon. Given very weak
advection and the continued easterly component to the low-level
flow, have remained close to numeric guidance for highs...with
readings topping out in the lower to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Main forecast concern continues to revolve around the strong storm
system and its affect on our area Friday, followed by much colder
weather for the weekend and into early next week.
Surface high pressure will drift off to our east Wednesday night as
the deep trof and associated surface low pushes into the Plains by
Thursday morning. This should allow an increasing southerly flow to
develop over our area late Wednesday night and especially during the
day on Thursday which should help propel temperatures close to or
above record levels in many areas (See Climate section below).
Winds are expected to gust between 30 and 35 mph out of the south
by afternoon as highs soar into the low to mid 70s with a few
upper 70s possible across parts of extreme west central Illinois.
Those gusty winds should continue Thursday night as the surface
low tracks into northern Iowa by Friday morning.
Initially, moisture transport ahead of the front Friday morning
is not very impressive, but as the front shifts east during the
day the persistent southerly flow will eventually draw moisture
north out of the Gulf of Mexico, with the NAM12 indicating mid 50
dew points into parts of southeast and east central Illinois
Friday afternoon. Still not seeing much surface based instability
with those dew points but it should be interesting to see how
models adjust in the next several runs with low level moisture
transport immediately ahead of the front. Wind shear is not
lacking to say the least with 0-6km bulk shears in the 60-70 kt
range, but that in itself may be a detriment to any sustained
updrafts ahead of the surging cold front Friday afternoon. Still
the threat for some quick moving, low topped storms to develop
between I-55 and I-57 early in the afternoon and then push east
with the front into Indiana by 00z where it will start to catch up
to a more favorable moisture profile. Highest POPs Friday afternoon
will be along and east of the Interstate 57 corridor with likely
POPs indicated, while decreasing rain chances will be the story to
the west behind the cold front.
As the cold front continues to race away from the area Friday
evening, we should see the rain chances move out of the entire
forecast area by late evening before some wrap-around moisture
shifts southeast behind the departing storm system early Saturday
morning. May see some brief sprinkles or flurries early Saturday
morning thanks to the deep cyclonic flow/strong cold advection
across the area with models now trending faster with the surface
low exiting the region and the resulting wrap-around moisture, so
have backed off any mention of the sprinkles or flurries in the
forecast for now. Windy and much colder weather will be the story
for Saturday with highs mainly in the 40s. The combination of the
gusty winds and morning lows around 30 in our northern counties
will yield wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s Saturday
morning! Morning lows on Sunday will drop to between 20 and 25
degrees with wind chills of between 10 and 15 degrees.
Chilly weather will dominate the weather across the area Sunday
through Monday night, although winds will be considerably lighter
than what we will have across the area on Saturday. Afternoon
temperatures Sunday and Monday should be in the low to mid 40s with
temperatures moderating back to around 50 on Tuesday. By Tuesday,
another storm system should take shape to our southwest with precip
breaking out in the warm advection regime to our west and south
Tuesday morning and gradually spreading northeast into our area
during the day Tuesday. Models not showing much, if any agreement
with the speed of the system and timing of precipitation into our
area, with the GFS much quicker in pushing the storm and precip
off to our east Wednesday, while the ECMWF is quite a bit slower
and keeps precipitation going across our area into Thanksgiving
morning. For now, POPs starting to increase from southwest to
northeast Tuesday morning, with even the possibility for a brief
period of a very light rain/snow mixture for a couple of hours
Tuesday morning, with rain chances taking over late morning through
the remainder of the day Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Main aviation forecast concern will be the possible re-development
of fog tonight. A weak trough axis currently over Nebraska/Kansas
will push into central Illinois...resulting in light/variable
winds tonight. Other than a few high clouds, skies will be mostly
clear. Since the airmass will essentially be unchanged, it seems a
persistence forecast would be most prudent in this case. Patchy
fog developed at all terminals last night, with KCMI briefly
experiencing visbys of less than 1 mile. Think the same will be
true tonight, although it is difficult to pinpoint exactly where
thicker fog may develop. Based on latest HRRR forecast, it
appears northeast Illinois into northern Indiana will be favored
for potential dense fog late tonight into Wednesday morning. At
this time, will include 2-4 mile visbys at all TAF sites between
09z and 16z.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 235 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016
Record high temperatures for Thursday, Nov 17th...
Peoria........75 degrees set back in 1941
Springfield...75 degrees set back in 1941, 1952
Lincoln.......75 degrees set back in 1941
Galesburg.....75 degrees set back in 1952
Jacksonville..78 degrees set back in 1952
Bloomington...78 degrees set back in 1986
Decatur.......77 degrees set back in 1952
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes
CLIMATE...EJL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1030 AM PST Tue Nov 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring a chance of showers to much of the
region today and tonight with lingering showers over the mountains
on Wednesday. Dry weather returns Thursday and Friday before
another wet weather system approaches for next weekend.
&&
.Discussion...
Frontal band across OR and NWrn CA has been enhanced by short wave
energy as it approaches the Nrn CA coast and showers have spread
across the Nrn zones this morning. Radar shows isolated showers
behind the frontal band as the cooler/unstable air nears the coast.
With the short-wave energy mainly skirting to the N and across OR
later today and tonight...the front will weaken as it heads SEwd
across interior Norcal. The latest CNRFC QPF and HRRR high
resolution QPFs significantly weaken the QPF as the frontal band
shifts SEwd leading to only low PoPs across much of our CWA, except
the Nrn and Ern zones. Snow levels will remain above pass levels
today, so no travel impacts expected.
The main short wave energy is forecast to move across Norcal late
tonight and Wed morning but moisture will be lacking. Given the
dynamics can`t rule-out isolated to scattered showers across Norcal
during this time, mainly for the mountains. Lowering snow levels may
lead to some light snowfall accumulations expected across the higher
elevations. By Wed afternoon, large scale ascent will have shifted E
of the Sierra Crest and subsidence will prevail.
Temperatures will lower about 15-20 degrees by Wednesday compared to
Monday`s readings. Some moderation of the airmass, and a return of
dry weather is expected by Thursday as ridging returns.
The strongest warming will be over the foothills and mountains,
while strengthening inversions and poor mixing may limit the
amount of warming in the Central Valley later this week. /JHM
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)
Widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures are expected
over the weekend as a cool trough with a surface cold front moves
through Norcal.
Models are a little slower bringing this system in, with
precipitation not reaching eastern portions of the forecast area
until later Saturday evening or possibly until early evening. The
best potential for precipitation continues to be over the Coastal
Mountains and Shasta County...where over 2 inches of rain could
fall. Locations further south and east should see lesser amounts,
especially if the GFS is correct in slowing/stalling the frontal
boundary on the west side. Early estimates of snowfall suggest a
few inches around pass levels in the Sierra, potentially 6-12
inches at Lassen National Park. Anyone traveling over the
mountains this weekend should closely monitor forecast updates
for more information on potential winter travel impacts.
Some showers many linger into early next week as weak ridging
returns with moist flow. Most shower activity should be in the
mountains and foothills and Valley north of I80. Another shortwave
could bring more precipitation on Wednesday. EK
&&
.AVIATION...
A frontal band moving inland from the coast is spreading light
precipitation into the northern Coastal Range. This should reach
RDD around 12z this morning. Light rain with MVFR conditions could
reach the Sacramento area by around 20-21Z. Patchy IFR/LIFR fog
Tuesday morning has developed this morning in the vicinity of KSCK
and should diminish by around 17-18z. EK
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
222 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2016
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A shortwave will push through the CWA tonight with a weak front
moving through overnight as well. There have been some showers and
low to mid levels clouds associated with this system over Alabama
this afternoon. As the wave moves through the CWA tonight, will see
a slight increase in cloud coverage, however based on the latest
visible satellite loop there is somewhat of a decreasing trend in
the clouds and thus do not expect cloud coverage over the CWA to be
quite as extensive as it is now over central AL. With the dry air in
place, there is also a dissipating trend with the showers over
central AL. HRRR has been trending toward the showers making it
further east than initially expected and given latest radar trends,
can`t rule out a light shower or sprinkle making it to the northwest
part of the CWA. Given this, have added a slight chance of showers
to mainly our AL counties before 00z tonight. Rainfall amounts would
be minimal.
With some clouds persisting into tonight will see low temperatures a
few degrees warmer than this morning with lows Wednesday morning in
the mid to upper 40s inland and low to mid 50s along the coast.
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The upper trough that brought a slight increase in clouds today
will continue to move off to our east, with light northwesterly
flow on Wednesday and an upper level ridge building over our area
on Thursday. A large area of high pressure at the surface will
also build over our region throughout this period. As a result,
dry conditions will prevail under generally clear skies. Highs
will range from the mid-upper 70s, with lows dipping to the upper
40s inland under ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows will
be in the 50s along the Gulf Coast.
.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...
Dry weather will likely continue across our area through this
period. Deep layer ridging on Friday will be replaced by an upper
level trough and fairly strong cold front moving eastward through
our CWA on Saturday. Due to a lack of moisture across our area,
the front will likely pass through without producing much if any
rainfall, and have kept any mention of rain offshore for now.
However, it is likely that this front will usher in the coolest
temperatures so far this season, with lows forecast to drop into
the mid-upper 30s by Monday morning and highs in the 60s Sunday
and Monday. Extremely dry air will also push into our area behind
the front, ending any chances of rain through early next week as
we continue our prolonged period of dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...
SKC to begin the TAF period, but clouds will increase this afternoon
as an area of mid-level clouds over Alabama moves southeast. There
is also an area of showers over the same area, but has been
dissipating as it moves southeast. Showers should dissipate before
reaching DHN but still a small chance that -RA could make it to
DHN.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds will gradually become easterly later this
week, generally remaining around 10 knots. Seas will remain
around 2 feet or less until Friday and then increase as a strong
cold front moves through our area early in the weekend. Seas could
increase to 4 to 6 feet on Saturday night, with locally higher
waves possible offshore as northerly winds could increase to 20 to
25 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue through the rest of the week. Minimum
relative humidity values will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s range
away from the coast each afternoon. Winds appear light and below
critical thresholds for red flag criteria.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall is expected for the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 48 77 47 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 55 74 55 75 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 48 76 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 46 76 46 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 46 76 46 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 47 75 48 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 54 73 55 74 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Lahr