Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/13/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
946 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016
The forecast remains on track for tonight and was blended to
observed trends along with high resolution models.
UPDATE
Issued at 636 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016
Temperatures really took a nosedive some areas after 5 PM CST,
fairly close to their forecast mins for tonight. Made some
adjustments but overall forecast mins were only tweaked a few
degrees if at all. Another quiet night with no weather impacts
expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016
Tonight an approaching cold front, which will bring modified
Pacific air, will move through the region dry. The winds will
shift to the west to northwest with good mixing. lows will be in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Northwest winds will pick up to 15 to 30 mph on Sunday as cooler air
continues to move into the region behind the cold front. Look for
highs from the lower 50s northwest to mid 60s south central and
southeast. Matched the HRRR forecast minimum relative humidity for
Sunday afternoon...as well as the consmos for winds...instead of
going strictly by blended models. These models did well for Saturday
afternoon`s conditions.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016
The main message for the long term period is a storm system
that may affect our area Thursday and Friday.
Global models continue to forecast a trend to more normal or even
below normal temperatures in the 5 to 7 day period. A wet period
also looks increasingly likely for the end of the week. While it
would not be unusual to expect snow for the third week of November,
the unusually mild first half of the month will make any change seem
abrupt. Today`s 12z run of the ECMWF is developing the low farther
south into the central plains, while the GFS is a bit farther north.
The Monday through Wednesday period will see a moderate to strong
progressive h500 flow bringing a series of fast moving waves
with little moisture. Several frontal passages will bring some
temperatures swings but little precipitation. Temperatures will
still be mild with highs generally in the 50s to around 60 Monday
and Tuesday...with 40s and 50s on Wednesday as the upper ridge moves
east and the flow becomes southwest.
Thursday and Friday are expected bring a significant change to the
current weather pattern. Its likely to be cooler and wetter. While
details are far from certain there will be a chance for rain and snow
and gusty winds. Those planning travel will want to keep updated.
Moderating conditions on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016
VFR conditions through the 00Z TAF period. Low level wind shear
will likely impact all terminals tonight through mid morning
Sunday.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
601 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Update for 00Z aviation cycle.
&&
.AVIATION...
Tonight...VFR. A few light showers around KLRD have not really
affected the terminal much with any restrictions. Expecting this
trend to continue most of the night though some MVFR cigs are
possible after midnight closer to KLRD. Otherwise any light rain
that does spread eastward towards KALI/KCRP should not reduce
conditions much. Medium to high confidence.
Sunday...VFR. Continued light northeasterly winds are expected
with light showers still across the region. Again we keep
conditions in the VFR range though cigs may lower towards 3500 to
5000 feet. High confidence.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night)...
Satellite imagery shows the mid/upper level low over the Texas
Panhandle moving slowly eastward. The low will move into Oklahoma
by Sunday morning and through the Ozarks Sunday evening. Satellite
imagery also shows jet stream from north central Mexico into
central Texas. There also seems to be moisture tap from an area of
convection off the southwest coast of Mexico. The upper level jet
streak will move to the northeast tonight into Sunday as the upper
low moves eastward. South Texas will be in the right entrance
region of the upper jet and provide atmospheric lift as moisture
gradually increases from the south. Isentropic upglide was
indicated by the models in the 305-310K layer. Latest HRRR and
Texas Tech WRF models continue to show an increase in areal
coverage of stratiform rain tonight and especially on Sunday.
Went with chance PoPs across the southern portion of the area for
tonight and slight chance north. Increased PoPs closer to guidance
values for Sunday. Not confident enough in measurable amounts to
go with MAV likely PoPs at this point however. Upper jet will move
to the east and lift associated with it will exit also. Rain
chances will diminish by Sunday evening.
LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Still expecting some rather dense cirrus Monday morning but the
H25 jet shifting southeast of the area...and significantly drier air
in the mid levels...will result in clearing skies during the day.
Mid level trough and weak surface front are prog to push SE across
the CWA Monday night with little impacts expected to the area. Weak
W/NW flow in the post FROPA airmass should result in a cool
night Monday night as a 1021mb sfc high tries to build into the
region. Despite weak north flow on Tuesday...very dry conditions in
all levels of the atmosphere should result in rapid warming with max
temps in the 80s nearly areawide. Strengthening mid level ridging
and continued dry airmass on Wednesday/Thursday will result in
unseasonably warm conditions with near record highs possible.
Powerful lee-side cyclogenesis out of the Rockies on Thursday will
aid in developing breezy to windy conditions across the CWA. This
low is prog to quickly eject east on Friday and send a strong cold
front south towards the CWA. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at the
front quickly sweeping across S TX either Friday evening or Friday
Night. A thin band of showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the immediate front...primarily across the Victoria area
southward along the barrier islands /and offshore/ where moisture
depth will be the greatest. Strong and elongated surface high
pressure ridge then builds into the region over the weekend with
noticeably cooler conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 63 74 61 82 58 / 30 40 10 10 0
Victoria 59 74 57 81 56 / 20 30 10 0 0
Laredo 63 73 60 81 61 / 30 30 10 0 0
Alice 61 74 58 82 56 / 30 40 10 0 0
Rockport 64 74 63 78 60 / 20 40 10 10 0
Cotulla 60 75 57 82 57 / 20 20 10 0 0
Kingsville 62 75 59 81 56 / 30 40 10 10 0
Navy Corpus 65 73 64 78 62 / 30 50 10 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
GH/77...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1054 PM EST Sat Nov 12 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2016
Presently, already seeing some valley locations into the mid 20s.
Based on these trends a few upper teens cannot be ruled out by
dawn. However, this amounts to only minor changes to the forecast.
Thus, no significant update at this time.
UPDATE Issued at 706 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2016
Valleys are quickly decoupling this evening with many valleys
already into the low 40s and should be into the 30s within an
hour. Dewpoints mixed out quite well this afternoon with some
upper teens and lower 20s. With dewpoint sitting in the low to mid
20s in a mixed environment on the ridges, it looks like that will
likely be needed to see frost tonight. With that in mind, backed
off on frost tonight for mainly the valleys expected to reach the
low to mid 20s tonight. Frost will likely be not as widespread as
last night given the dry air in place. Regardless, hard freeze is
still expected and will end the growing season tonight. Outside of
tweaks to the hourly temperatures and the reduction in frost, no
other changes planned.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2016
19Z MSAS surface analysis indicating high pressure is centered
across central IL. This is leading to a N to NE flow across the
region and at times a few spots will gust to around 15 knots.
Temperatures have been cool across the region with highs so far in
the low to mid 50s. The dry air is also evident with dewpoints in
the low 20s for many spots. This dry air will of course keep the
wildfire risk going. This high pressure will continue to progress
SE into the region tonight and will crest across the region
overnight. The other big story here is the likely freezing
temperatures given the dry weather, cool afternoon highs, and
decoupling. The COOP MOS data did come in slightly warmer, but
still went with lower 20s in the colder valley locales given
afternoon dewpoints. This will likely put the growing season to
bed for all of eastern KY.
Sunday the surface high pressure will continue SE but becomes
broad overtime. There is some question if we can manage to see
more SE flow which could lead to more smoke across the area from
larger fires to the south. Right now it looks limited based on the
HRRR smoke product for both near surface and vertically integrated
smoke. Either way we are looking at another dry day, with RH in
the sub 25% range. Therefore wildfire risk will continue, however
the winds are not expected to be a factor given the high pressure
placement. A squeezed off upper low will be centered across the TN
Valley region and will slowly migrate ENE through the day. This
will bring some high to mid level clouds into the far south and
east.
These clouds will continue to move across the east and SE through
the night as the upper low progresses east. The dry air Sunday
afternoon will lead to the potential for a few cool spots, but
this may be more limited given the clouds.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2016
Early in the period, a weak upper low will bring some clouds to the
area on Monday before it swings off to our east. Upper level ridging
will then build northeast into the eastern CONUS to end the work
week in response to a digging trough over the Rockies.
This will provide warming temperatures, with readings by Thursday
and Friday pushing the 70 degree mark. Southerly flow will also
increase across the area Thursday and especially on Friday but
moisture will be slow to return. This could set up a day or two of
breezy south to southwest winds in combination with low relative
humidity Thursday and Friday. Something to keep an eye on for sure
with the wildfire concerns across the area.
Our next weather maker remains on track to impact the area by Friday
night into Saturday as a deep trough swings northeast from the
Plains into the Great Lakes. Still some differences aloft in the
modeling which impacts how much rain is generated between the GFS
and ECMWF solutions with the frontal passage so kept PoPs in the 20
to 40 percent range for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2016
VFR conditions and light winds will last through Sunday evening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
920 PM EST Sat Nov 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will settle aloft overnight, then
gradually weaken during the day Sunday as a compact upper level
disturbance approaches from the west and an associated low
pressure system develops along the Carolina coast. This system will
bring a good chance of rain to roughly the eastern half of NC Sunday
night into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 920 PM Saturday...
Little change/adjustments required to the current forecast. Freeze
Warning in effect for all of Central NC through 9 Am EST Sunday.
Chilly high pressure is settling into the Carolinas, providing
clear, cool and near calm conditions. Many locations across the
northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain already reporting
temps in the low-mid 30s. Temperatures will fall below freezing
across much of the northern counties by midnight. This will lead to
several hours of temperatures below freezing, likely resulting in a
hard freeze, and an end to the 2016 growing season.
Per latest RAP model as well as satellite trends, expect skies to
remain clear over the southern counties for a good part of the
overnight, with a thin veil of cirrus probable after 4 AM. Do not
expect these high clouds to have much affect on temperatures. Thus,
a light freeze still appears highly likely across the south with
freezing-sub freezing temperatures occurring for 2-4 hours. ~WSS
Cirrus will pour in on Sunday and altostratus will become thicker
across the southern CWA during the afternoon, as the aforementioned
upper low begins to move east and tropospheric deep warm advection
increases. Some light rain may spreading in from SC by mid/late
afternoon, though the extremely dry airmass over NC will take a
little time to saturate, and the bulk of the precipitation will come
after 00z. Highs should reflect the increasing/thickening cloud
cover and onset of precip in the south, with only lower 50s in the
south and upper 50s in the north. ~Smith
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...
Strong frontogenesis associated with the closed upper low moving
east out of the Tennessee Valley will produce enhanced lift along a
pronounced h85 warm frontal zone across the southern tier of central
NC Sunday night. Precipitable water increases in southeast flow into
the frontal zone towards 00z and expect precip to overspread the
south before midnight...will increase PoPs to likely and this is
probably low. The front lifts north rather quickly as the upper low
begins to lift northeast after crossing the mountains overnight.
Will shift the focus of likely PoPs to the northern tier and spread
more widely to the east where the inverted surface trof will provide
a second zone of enhanced rain. As the low lifts out...showers will
persist in the east Monday morning...tapering off over all but the
northeast by mid afternoon. Rainfall amounts should be fairly
significant and widespread...>1/4 inch across most of the area
and potentially >1/2 inch in the east.
Mins on Sunday night will be relatively mild...lower 40s. Highs
Monday are more problematic, with cooler highs...mid 50s...generally
across the north...and especially northeast where rain will persist
longer in the day. Highs across the south will only reach around 60
due to cloudiness...but an earlier breakout in the dry slot could
allow insolation to bump the numbers up a category or so. Expect
skies to progressively clear from the southwest Monday night...with
mostly clear skies after midnight. Weak cool air advection across
the northern tier will be offset by mixing...mins look to fall into
the upper 30s...perhaps some mid 30s in the northwest...with
lower 40s across the south.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...
Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the week as the
upper trof across the eastern Conus translates offshore ahead of
progressive ridging which will be building east into the area
through the weekend. Highs will be mostly low and mid 60s Monday and
Tuesday...reinforced by a rather weak and dry cold front on
Wednesday with highs finally reaching the mid and upper 60s by
Friday and Saturday. A cold front will be moving into the area over
the weekend and should be accompanied by showers as we will see
moisture return as the upper ridge moves offshore, but the timing
could be as early as Saturday afternoon...or delayed until
Sunday...so will only introduce slight chance PoPs on Saturday
at this point.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 PM Saturday...
VFR conditions remain likely through the 24 hour period. Light north
to northeasterly winds will likely become calm in many locations
overnight as high pressure moves over the region.
Outlook: An area of low pressure will move along coastal NC Sunday
night and Monday, bringing widespread rain and a very good chance of
IFR or LIFR. There is also a chance of low level wind shear Sunday
night. Surface winds will be out of the northeast until the low
departs on Monday, when winds will turn to southwesterly and
conditions will begin to improve back to VFR. VFR conditions are
then expected for much of the remainder of the week.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Sunday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS/SMITH
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...30/SMITH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1132 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016
.DISCUSSION...
See Aviation discussion for 06Z TAFS.
&&
Tonight...VFR. A few light showers around KLRD and KALI have not
really affected the terminals much with any restrictions. Expecting
this trend to continue most of the night. Light rain looks to
continue but not reduce local conditions. High confidence.
Sunday...VFR. Continued light northeasterly winds are expected with
light showers still across the region. Again we keep conditions in
the VFR range though cigs may lower towards 3500 to 5000 feet. Lower
confidence that some of the showers may drop cigs into the MVFR
range, and if so it`ll only be briefly. High confidence.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 601 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Update for 00Z aviation cycle.
AVIATION...
Tonight...VFR. A few light showers around KLRD have not really
affected the terminal much with any restrictions. Expecting this
trend to continue most of the night though some MVFR cigs are
possible after midnight closer to KLRD. Otherwise any light rain
that does spread eastward towards KALI/KCRP should not reduce
conditions much. Medium to high confidence.
Sunday...VFR. Continued light northeasterly winds are expected
with light showers still across the region. Again we keep
conditions in the VFR range though cigs may lower towards 3500 to
5000 feet. High confidence.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night)...
Satellite imagery shows the mid/upper level low over the Texas
Panhandle moving slowly eastward. The low will move into Oklahoma
by Sunday morning and through the Ozarks Sunday evening. Satellite
imagery also shows jet stream from north central Mexico into
central Texas. There also seems to be moisture tap from an area of
convection off the southwest coast of Mexico. The upper level jet
streak will move to the northeast tonight into Sunday as the upper
low moves eastward. South Texas will be in the right entrance
region of the upper jet and provide atmospheric lift as moisture
gradually increases from the south. Isentropic upglide was
indicated by the models in the 305-310K layer. Latest HRRR and
Texas Tech WRF models continue to show an increase in areal
coverage of stratiform rain tonight and especially on Sunday.
Went with chance PoPs across the southern portion of the area for
tonight and slight chance north. Increased PoPs closer to guidance
values for Sunday. Not confident enough in measurable amounts to
go with MAV likely PoPs at this point however. Upper jet will move
to the east and lift associated with it will exit also. Rain
chances will diminish by Sunday evening.
LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Still expecting some rather dense cirrus Monday morning but the
H25 jet shifting southeast of the area...and significantly drier air
in the mid levels...will result in clearing skies during the day.
Mid level trough and weak surface front are prog to push SE across
the CWA Monday night with little impacts expected to the area. Weak
W/NW flow in the post FROPA airmass should result in a cool
night Monday night as a 1021mb sfc high tries to build into the
region. Despite weak north flow on Tuesday...very dry conditions in
all levels of the atmosphere should result in rapid warming with max
temps in the 80s nearly areawide. Strengthening mid level ridging
and continued dry airmass on Wednesday/Thursday will result in
unseasonably warm conditions with near record highs possible.
Powerful lee-side cyclogenesis out of the Rockies on Thursday will
aid in developing breezy to windy conditions across the CWA. This
low is prog to quickly eject east on Friday and send a strong cold
front south towards the CWA. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at the
front quickly sweeping across S TX either Friday evening or Friday
Night. A thin band of showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the immediate front...primarily across the Victoria area
southward along the barrier islands /and offshore/ where moisture
depth will be the greatest. Strong and elongated surface high
pressure ridge then builds into the region over the weekend with
noticeably cooler conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 63 74 61 82 58 / 30 40 10 10 0
Victoria 59 74 57 81 56 / 20 30 10 0 0
Laredo 63 73 60 81 61 / 30 30 10 0 0
Alice 61 74 58 82 56 / 30 40 10 0 0
Rockport 64 74 63 78 60 / 20 40 10 10 0
Cotulla 60 75 57 82 57 / 20 20 10 0 0
Kingsville 62 75 59 81 56 / 30 40 10 10 0
Navy Corpus 65 73 64 78 62 / 30 50 10 10 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
GH/77...AVIATION
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
503 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 501 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from
MO/IA into nw Ontario and a shortwave trough from Saskatchewan into
ern Montana. At the surface, breezy wsw flow persisted between 1028
mb high pres over the Ohio valley and a 998 mb low over srn
Manitoba. IR loop showed clear skies over the region.
Today, expect plenty of sunshine with the mid level ridging into the
area with a very dry airmass (PWAT around 0.35 inch). Mixing heights
to 925 mb (temps near 8C) will support highs into the mid to upper
50s, with the warmest conditions near Lake Superior where downslope
sw flow prevails. Similar to Saturday, winds will gust into the 15
to 25 mph range.
Tonight, although the upstream shortwave trough will shear out and
weaken as it moves through nrn Ontario to Quebec. However it will
help to drag a weak cold front into Upper michigan late tonight with
winds veering to the northwest and increasing clouds over the west
half, per 925-850 mb rh fcst. With 850 mb temps only droping to
around 2C over the nw, expect little instability or chance for any
pcpn.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 434 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016
A persistent Pacific airflow wl continue the relatively warm and
mainly dry wx for Upper MI until at least late week. But later in
the week, a stronger disturbance/low pres system wl bring more pcpn
and perhaps some accumulating lake effect snow in its wake next
weekend.
Beginning Mon...A shrtwave/attendant weak cold front are forecast to
swing thru the Upper Lakes late Sun night and Mon morning.
Accompanying pops wl be limited by antecedent dry airmass and lack
of moisture inflow into the area ahead of this disturbance. Since
h85 temps within the trailing Pacific airmass are fcst to fall no
lower than about 0C/compared to Lake Superior water temps near 9C/,
lake effect pcpn appears unlikely. However, fcst soundings do
suggest a good deal of low clouds behind the fropa with near sfc
moisture trapped blo strengthening/lowering subsidence inversion.
Some upslope/terrain enhanced isold -shra may be possible over a few
west and north central locations in a n-ne flow. Despite the cool
down following the fropa, temps should remain above normal.
Mon night/Tue...Next shortwave moving e thru the Plains near the
Canadian border is fcst to slide into the Upper Lakes on Tue. While
moisture inflow wl once again be limited and sfc low pres is fcst to
move well north into Canada, sharper deep layer q-vector
convergence/12hr h5 height falls of 120-140m in the dpva ahead of
this disturbance and some upper divergence in the left exit of the
accompanying 120+kt h3 jet max wl bring increasing clouds to the
area on Mon night and a better chc of some showers to Upper Mi on
Tue when a sfc-h85 trough swings thru the Upper Lakes. With the
Pacific airflow and h85 temps in the 2-4C range, well above normal
temps are still expected.
Wed/Thu...Large scale ridging/subsidence in the wake of the
departing shortwave wl bring a drying trend Tue night into Wed. As
the ridge axis shifts to the e on Wed and the wind shifts to the sw,
increasing waa clouds are expected later Wed into Thu. Unseasonably
warm Pacific air wl continue to dominate during this time with h85
temps rising as high as 8C Wed night into Thu.
Fri/Sat...Longer range models continue to show a good deal of
variability on the track/intensity of shortwave/sfc low pres
tracking thru the Plains and toward the western Great Lakes. In
general, the GFS/Canadian models have been consistent the last
several runs showing a slower and deeper sfc low tracking toward far
western U.P. which would suggest mainly a rain event through at
least Fri night before some colder air and lake effect snow returns
in the nnw flow left in the wake of the exiting low pres on Sat.
Recent runs of the ECMWF are quicker than the GFS/Canadian models
and much more variable with the track of the sfc low resulting
generally in a quicker transition to some synoptic and/or lake
effect snow. Considering the better run to run model continuity
tended to side more with slower, deeper solution of the GFS/Canadian
over the less consistent and more progressive ECMWF solution. As a
result would expect bulk of synoptic pcpn to be mostly in form of
rain for our area Thu night into Fri night with perhaps a transition
to some lake effect snow late Sat over the west and Sat night over
north central counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1223 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016
LLWS will continue to impact KSAW and KIWD at the start of the
forecast but will end at KIWD by 09z while lingering at KSAW through
the night. Surface winds will pick up again after sunrise
tomorrow...especially at the more exposed sites of KIWD and KCMX.
Otherwise VFR conditions continue through the forecast.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 255 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2016
No changes to the current headlines, will maintain the gale warning
for the open waters through 3z Sun. This will continue to include
the western nearshore of the Keweenaw and the Lake Michigan
nearshore waters. Elsewhere will maintain small craft conditions
overnight.
Could see high-end gales between 40-45kts for the western portions
of Lake Superior this afternoon/evening, then as the low pressure
over Hudson Bay lifts northeast further into Quebec, the gradient
will diminish with winds also lowering. With the long southwest
fetch orientation today, waves over the central Lake Superior zones
could approach 15-20ft. Then as eluded to earlier, winds will
diminish overnight to around 20-25kt with an occasional 30kt gust.
Waves will be steadily subsiding early Sunday, but could see the
small craft needing to be extended beyond mid-morning Sunday if
winds remain up.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...Beachler
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1102 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain near the Georgia and South Carolina
coasts through tonight. The low will begin to lift northeast of
the area Monday. High pressure will extend into the area from the
west in the wake of the low Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The HRRR displayed rain continuing over much of the forecast area
into the evening with some decrease in coverage from southwest to
northeast late this afternoon and evening. The rain was mainly
associated with lift and instability associated with the h5 low
near the area and the moist southern stream displayed on the water
vapor imagery. There was also an associated surface trough near
the coast and isentropic lift. Moisture will become more shallow
tonight, but with the h85 low remaining near the area and
continued high low-level moisture there will continue to be a
chance of light rain or drizzle. Little temperature change should
occur this afternoon with the cool wedge of air in place and cloud
cover. Cloudiness should also help hold up temperatures tonight.
The temperature guidance tonight was close.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The models indicate deeper moisture ahead of the opening upper low
will be northeast of the forecast area Monday. However, high low-
level moisture should continue trapped under an inversion and the
models depict the h85 low remaining near the area during much of
the day. There may also be drizzle mainly early. Followed the
lower maximum temperature guidance.
There should be diminished cloudiness Monday with the h85 low
northeast of the area and downslope northwest flow. The models
indicate a weak pressure gradient and wind should be light.
Nocturnal cooling and lingering high low-level moisture may result
in areas of fog late.
The models display surface ridging extending into the area from
the west Tuesday. There will be upper troughing but northwest
downslope flow should dominate. Heating and mixing should
dissipate fog early and expect a mostly sunny day. The guidance
temperatures are close.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH Sunday/...
The GFS and ECMWF displayed surface ridging dominating Wednesday
through Friday. A cold front with little moisture was indicated
Saturday with ridging behind the front Sunday. The h5 trough was
shown just off the coast Wednesday with ridging over the forecast
area Thursday and Friday. Troughing following this ridge was
depicting remaining mainly north of the forecast area Saturday.
The GFS and ECWMF MOS had pops less than 20 percent through the
medium-range period. The GFS ensemble mean had pops less than 20
percent through Friday, and around 20 percent Saturday and Sunday.
The MOS had temperatures above normal with the highest values
associated with the upper ridging and ahead of the front Thursday
and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR ceilings in light rain late this morning, becoming MVFR ceilings
with light rain this afternoon. MVFR VSBYS possible at times in
moderate showers today.
Upper low over N GA will slowly track east across our region through
tonight, while offshore surface wave tracks to the NE. Isentropic
lift, along with upper lift ahead of the approaching disturbance,
will continue to provide periods of light rain, with occasional
moderate showers, across the region through today. Indications are
that most of the precip will push east away from our terminals early
tonight. Current CIGS at our terminals are still VFR at 15Z, but
expecting gradually lowering CIGS to MVFR later today, due to
moistening low levels, and holding at least through tonight/Monday
morning.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs expected to linger at least
through Monday morning, possibly throughout the day Monday, and
possibly even through Monday night/early Tuesday morning. VFR
expected Tuesday afternoon through late week. Reduced visibilities
in smoke could possibly return at times, early to mid week.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
935 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016
Went ahead and increased max temps this afternoon per HRRR trends
with favored warming westerly winds already working into the
western valley. Already upper 40s and low 50s across the area,
with full sun will see records most likely fall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016
Temperatures will be the main forecast concern for the period.
A shortwave trough currently moving into eastern MT will head out
into the Northern Plains today. Not much more than some mid level
clouds out in eastern MT currently and all models are showing dry
conditions as the shortwave moves through. The wave will shift
winds to the west and then northwest late in the day. The cold air
advection holds off until late afternoon, and only affecting the
northwestern counties. Will continue to keep highs in the 50s in
that area, but further south, particularly the southwestern
counties, will be much warmer. With 925mb temps back into the
teens C, west winds, and plenty of sunshine think that highs in
the 60s will be possible south of the Highway 2 corridor.
The shortwave trough will dig into MN/IA tonight, with the cold
air advection really kicking in behind it. The advection will be
offset by cloud cover as most of the short range models have some
stratus moving in behind the front. Temps should stay in the 30s
overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016
Monday and Tuesday...Another shortwave trough will be moving
through Monday night, and this time the models break out some
light precip in our northeastern counties as the trough axis moves
through. Continued to keep some 20-40 POPs for light rain in the
Lake of the Woods area. Tuesday should be dry as upper ridging
briefly builds in again. Temperatures will be cooler than over the
weekend but still above seasonal averages with highs in the upper
40s and 50s and lows in the 30s and low 40s.
Wednesday through Saturday...Long wave trough over the eastern
Pacific shifts to the west coast. Zonal flow across the northern
states amplifies a bit with a long wave ridge over western North
America. A long wave trough forms over eastern North America and
amplifies modestly through the period.
The GFS solution has slowed down from the previous runs while the
ECMWF was vacillating around. Will blend the models. Models in a
more agreement than the last couple days. More significant precip
over the forecast area. Will question how much cold air will move
into the system.
High temperatures were decrease a degree for Wed and decreased one
to three degrees for Thu and Fri. Sat high temps were decreased two
to six degrees from yesterdays run.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016
All TAF sites are VFR with just a narrow line of mid clouds in
western ND. This will continue until tonight when cold air begins
to come down into the forecast area. Some of the models have just
VFR ceilings and others have MVFR or even IFR. Went middle of the
road with lower VFR at most sites but some MVFR at KTVF and KBJI
towards tomorrow morning. Winds will shift to the west and become
rather breezy by this afternoon with gusts over 25 kts. Winds will
decrease a bit around sunset and turn to the northwest.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Hoppes
AVIATION...JR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions prevail across North Texas this morning although
there are some pockets of reduced visibility in shallow
fog...mainly in the outlying areas. In addition...an area of VFR
ceilings has developed across North Texas associated with weak
lift around 5000 ft. These cigs are expected to persist through
late morning before scattering out. Otherwise...southeast flow
will prevail and become more southerly later today. A weak cold
front will move through the region late in the day on Monday. This
will allow surface winds to become more westerly by midday with
northwest winds by evening. Some lower cigs may develop ahead of
the front for a few hours Monday morning. For now...will have a
BKN030 in at DFW for the extended portion of the TAF. No other
major aviation issues at this time.
Dunn
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly precipitation-free conditions are expected for the
upcoming week with above normal temperatures. The forecast
for the end of the week appears wet and seasonably cooler.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
A couple of nuisances appear for the immediate short term
period. Model guidance over the past 24 hours has struggled with
cloud cover and resultant surface temperatures. IR imagery early
this morning revealed a plume of high-level clouds streaming in
from the southwest ahead of a cut-off upper low. Beneath this
plume was a deck of mid-level clouds that has continued to creep
north and eastward through the overnight hours from near the
Concho Valley eastward towards the Hill Country. In addition, a
large swath of clouds has developed further north closer to the
Red River and Metroplex. Right now the one possibility that
explains these clouds is subtle isentropic upglide along the 295K
theta surface which corresponds to roughly 850mb or around the
4.5-5 KFT layer (where most sites indicate a ceiling). The RAP and
now a consensus of other hi resolution short term model guidance
appears to have latched on to this and sky grids have been
adjusted to match some of this output. The other concern this
morning will be the potential for some patchy dense fog for areas
along and northwest of a Comanche to Stephenville to Bowie line.
Dewpoint depressions across the area are just below 2 degrees and
While the HRRR visibility product is usually overly aggressive, I
feel that its solution may not be too far fetched given current
trends in observations as well as forecast soundings indicating a
shallow layer of saturation. It`s also quite possible that the air
just above the moist layer is a bit too dry. With that in place
even weak vertical motion may induce a downward flux of this dry
air resulting in mainly widespread dew. Most of the patchy fog
(should it develop), some dense, should dissipate by mid-morning
as it should be shallow in nature.
For today, precipitation-free conditions are expected, though a
sprinkle or two cannot be ruled out, as the upper low to the west
lifts northwards and departs the region. While there should be
some lingering cloud cover through the morning, much of this is
expected to dissipate as mixing occurs, similar to yesterday. Most
areas yesterday saw temperatures climb above guidance, despite the
modest CAA. Given that the CAA should be much weaker or nearly
non-existent today, I`ve opted to nudge afternoon high
temperatures a few degrees above even some of the warmer guidance
for today. As a result, most areas today should climb into the
70s. The one potential caveat will be if cloud cover lingers a
little longer than currently anticipated. Tonight should feature
slightly warmer conditions as southerly winds become more
widespread.
Much of the day on Monday should be dry and warm. Low level
southerly flow should transport modified Gulf air northward and
across a good portion of North and Central TX. Winds will become a
bit more southwesterly later in the day ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary from the north. This should ensure afternoon high
temperatures in the mid to even upper 70s across a good deal of
the region. The aforementioned front should slide southward
through the area as a shortwave trough embedded in the
increasingly north/northwest flow aloft slides through the Ozarks
and into the Arklatex. Precipitation chances generally look low
due to the meager moisture return, however, some guidance does
paint light precipitation mainly across the eastern third of
North TX with the extended portion of some of the hi- resolution
guidance keeping our area mostly dry. I`ll go ahead and mention a
10-15 PoP in the Wx grids for now as it appears a little too dry
for anything higher.
Tuesday appears dry and warmer, despite the passage of the
frontal boundary. This will mainly be due to slightly stronger
west winds as surface high pressure slowly builds to the
southwest. Afternoon high temperatures across the area should
climb into the upper 70s/low 80s for most areas west of I-35 with
regions to the northeast remaining in the mid 70s. Rain chances
will be near zero as very dry air and subsidence overspread the
region.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)...
For Wednesday and Thursday---Dry conditions should prevail during
this time period as well as a potent upper trough develops to the
northwest. Strong lee-side cyclogenesis will result in an
increasing surface pressure gradient. With slightly veered winds,
compressional warming due to downsloping should allow temperatures
to soar probably 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms. Most areas on
Wednesday and Thursday will see high temperatures in the upper 70s
to low 80s with breezy south/southwest winds. Winds will back a
little on Thursday which should allow for a good return flow of
low level moisture. This increase in moisture may help to curb the
diurnal temperature trend and afternoon temperatures may be a
degree or two cooler on Thursday than Wednesday. Overnight low
temperatures during this time are also expected to be several
degrees above normal, but conditions should be generally pleasant
during the evening hours. Some model guidance hints at some weak
convection Thursday afternoon with what appears to be negligible
forcing. For now, I`ve kept the forecast up to this point dry, but
this may need to be re-visited in later forecast packages.
For Friday and Saturday---The big changes that we`ve been
advertising for the past several days still appear to be on track
for the end of the week and into next weekend. Model guidance
continues to slow the progression of the upper trough and
associated cold front through North and Central TX. A slower storm
track means that a larger and greater quality of low level
moisture will be allowed to stream northward. Forecast 12 hr
height tendencies suggest that nearly 60 to 80 meter height falls
will overspread the Central Plains which should send a sharp cold
front southward. The trailing cold front should slip through
North and Central TX through the day on Friday. While a bulk of
the large scale forcing remains to the north, low level moisture
coupled with generally southerly winds should yield a fair amount
of convergence along the cold front. As a result, I`ve nudged PoPs
upwards in the extended towards 50%, mainly for eastern areas
with decreasing PoPs with westward extent. We will continue to
monitor trends in the model guidance, but it looks like at least
the eastern half of North and Central TX stands a good shot to get
some rainfall.
With increasing low level moisture, a fair amount of instability
will likely be in place. This coupled with 40-50 knots of mid-
level flow may support some strong to severe storms. The biggest
caveat will be the exact timing of FROPA. Right now the 00 UTC GFS
is still a tad slower than the 00 UTC ECMWF, but both models pull
10-12 g/kg mixing ratio values northward through the area. If the
GFS is to be believed, higher temperatures and strong to severe
storms will be more likely. If the ECMWF verifies, a few storms
(some strong) and cooler conditions are more likely. Either way,
much cooler conditions appear on tap for Friday evening and
Saturday. High temperatures in the 50s with overnight lows in the
40s and perhaps even 30s appear plausible for the extended portion
of the outlook.
24-Bain
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 55 78 51 78 / 5 5 0 0 0
Waco 72 53 79 49 79 / 5 5 5 0 0
Paris 71 49 74 47 75 / 5 5 10 5 0
Denton 72 52 76 47 77 / 5 5 0 0 0
McKinney 71 52 76 48 77 / 5 5 5 0 0
Dallas 71 56 79 54 79 / 5 5 5 0 0
Terrell 72 53 75 50 78 / 5 5 5 0 0
Corsicana 72 54 75 52 78 / 5 5 5 0 0
Temple 72 53 78 51 78 / 5 5 5 0 0
Mineral Wells 72 52 75 47 79 / 5 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
711 AM EST Sun Nov 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 501 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from
MO/IA into nw Ontario and a shortwave trough from Saskatchewan into
ern Montana. At the surface, breezy wsw flow persisted between 1028
mb high pres over the Ohio valley and a 998 mb low over srn
Manitoba. IR loop showed clear skies over the region.
Today, expect plenty of sunshine with the mid level ridging into the
area with a very dry airmass (PWAT around 0.35 inch). Mixing heights
to 925 mb (temps near 8C) will support highs into the mid to upper
50s, with the warmest conditions near Lake Superior where downslope
sw flow prevails. Similar to Saturday, winds will gust into the 15
to 25 mph range.
Tonight, although the upstream shortwave trough will shear out and
weaken as it moves through nrn Ontario to Quebec. However it will
help to drag a weak cold front into Upper michigan late tonight with
winds veering to the northwest and increasing clouds over the west
half, per 925-850 mb rh fcst. With 850 mb temps only droping to
around 2C over the nw, expect little instability or chance for any
pcpn.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 434 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016
A persistent Pacific airflow wl continue the relatively warm and
mainly dry wx for Upper MI until at least late week. But later in
the week, a stronger disturbance/low pres system wl bring more pcpn
and perhaps some accumulating lake effect snow in its wake next
weekend.
Beginning Mon...A shrtwave/attendant weak cold front are forecast to
swing thru the Upper Lakes late Sun night and Mon morning.
Accompanying pops wl be limited by antecedent dry airmass and lack
of moisture inflow into the area ahead of this disturbance. Since
h85 temps within the trailing Pacific airmass are fcst to fall no
lower than about 0C/compared to Lake Superior water temps near 9C/,
lake effect pcpn appears unlikely. However, fcst soundings do
suggest a good deal of low clouds behind the fropa with near sfc
moisture trapped blo strengthening/lowering subsidence inversion.
Some upslope/terrain enhanced isold -shra may be possible over a few
west and north central locations in a n-ne flow. Despite the cool
down following the fropa, temps should remain above normal.
Mon night/Tue...Next shortwave moving e thru the Plains near the
Canadian border is fcst to slide into the Upper Lakes on Tue. While
moisture inflow wl once again be limited and sfc low pres is fcst to
move well north into Canada, sharper deep layer q-vector
convergence/12hr h5 height falls of 120-140m in the dpva ahead of
this disturbance and some upper divergence in the left exit of the
accompanying 120+kt h3 jet max wl bring increasing clouds to the
area on Mon night and a better chc of some showers to Upper Mi on
Tue when a sfc-h85 trough swings thru the Upper Lakes. With the
Pacific airflow and h85 temps in the 2-4C range, well above normal
temps are still expected.
Wed/Thu...Large scale ridging/subsidence in the wake of the
departing shortwave wl bring a drying trend Tue night into Wed. As
the ridge axis shifts to the e on Wed and the wind shifts to the sw,
increasing waa clouds are expected later Wed into Thu. Unseasonably
warm Pacific air wl continue to dominate during this time with h85
temps rising as high as 8C Wed night into Thu.
Fri/Sat...Longer range models continue to show a good deal of
variability on the track/intensity of shortwave/sfc low pres
tracking thru the Plains and toward the western Great Lakes. In
general, the GFS/Canadian models have been consistent the last
several runs showing a slower and deeper sfc low tracking toward far
western U.P. which would suggest mainly a rain event through at
least Fri night before some colder air and lake effect snow returns
in the nnw flow left in the wake of the exiting low pres on Sat.
Recent runs of the ECMWF are quicker than the GFS/Canadian models
and much more variable with the track of the sfc low resulting
generally in a quicker transition to some synoptic and/or lake
effect snow. Considering the better run to run model continuity
tended to side more with slower, deeper solution of the GFS/Canadian
over the less consistent and more progressive ECMWF solution. As a
result would expect bulk of synoptic pcpn to be mostly in form of
rain for our area Thu night into Fri night with perhaps a transition
to some lake effect snow late Sat over the west and Sat night over
north central counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 710 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016
Expect VFR conditions through the forecast period. However, mid
clouds will increase in late this evening as a cold front moves into
the area. LLWS is also expected again this evening at KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 509 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016
A tight gradient between high pres over the OH valley and low
pressure moving into nrn Ontario will support sw winds to 30 knots
today. There may be a few gale force gusts to 35 knots over the wrn
lake but should be brief/infrequent. Winds will then diminish below
20 knots tonight as a weak cold front moves in bringing veering
winds to nrly. NW winds may increase to 30 knots by Tuesday night
behind a trough moving through the region. The next chance for gales
is expected by Thursday night into Friday as northeast winds
increase in response to a deep low pressure system approaching from
the plains.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
317 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016
The short term begins with an upper level shortwave over the
northern Plains moving through a longwave ridge that has been
positioned over the central US for several days. Meanwhile a large
upper level low encompasses the Gulf of Alaska with weak ridging
over the Rockies into northern Alaska.
This afternoon and tonight an area of lower clouds will move
south with the cooler air behind the front and linger across the
north and east. There should be enough wind to mix the air and cloud
cover to hold temperatures up in the mid 30s most areas but lowered
mins to lower 30s southwest where past few nights it has gotten
cooler than expected...and also in the north central where the
coolest h850 temps will be.
Monday morning the weak upper level ridging moves east across the
northern plains and the flow flattens quickly as another shortwave
aloft pushes out of the Rockies and into the northern Plains. This
should bring plenty of high clouds along with some mild Pacific air
warm advection. Monday should be the warmest day of the upcoming
work week with highs in the lower 60s southwest and 50s elsewhere.
Used consmos for winds with the mild southwest flow. Also looked at
HRRR forecast min rh field for Monday afternoon - lowering the
blended guidance a tad - especially for the southwest.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016
The long term will focus on the potential winter storm for the
latter part of the week and messaging the uncertainties. We have
issued a special weather statement regarding the potential for
significant winter weather Thursday/Friday. This would be the first
significant winter weather event of the season...and want to make
sure people are prepared.
Monday night through Wednesday will be rather benign with above
average temperatures continuing, though temperatures
will be trending lower Tuesday and Wednesday with highs
falling into the 50s Tuesday and 40s and 50s Wednesday.
The aforementioned upper level large Gulf of Alaska low digs south
and develops into a longwave trough off the west coast by Wednesday.
In response, the upper level flow over the northern Plains becomes
southwesterly and the models are depicting some upper level impulses
moving northeast across Montana and into northern ND and south
central Canada. This will bring a chance of rain showers - possibly
a few snow showers - late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning to the
northern tier of counties.
Regarding the potential winter storm system late this week:
GEFS ensemble plumes continue to show quite a disparity for
precipitation across the region highlighting the uncertainty for
picking any single solution at this time. However mean ensemble QPF
show a stronger signal for significant precipitation.
The 12z runs of the GFS and ECMWF show hints of these models
beginning to come a tad closer to an agreement. While the ECMWF
remains the faster solution...developing the surface low into
Nebraska by Thursday morning while the GFS develops it farther west
in CO/UT/WY by Thursday morning...the ECMWF is bringing the low
farther north across the ND/MN border, while the GFS tracks the low
from eastern SD into southern MN. The ECMWF brings the low to the
ND/MN border by daybreak Friday, while the GFS solution to the
surface low doesn`t bring it to the Red River Valley of SD/MN until
Saturday evening. The ECMWF continues to have the system exiting to
the Lake Superior/Hudson Bay area faster than the GFS.
Will continue to highlight the uncertainty in messaging and mention
impacts to travel Thursday and Friday in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook...and also by issuing a special weather statement. Will
continue to post to social media regarding the potential for
this storm system, as well as messaging regarding winter
preparedness for this potential first widespread significant winter
event for our area this season.
The 8 to 14 day temperature forecast does show a return to a
warmer than normal outlook so we don`t think the up-coming weather
will signal a cooler change yet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016
Areas of MVFR cigs will be possible over portions of north central
North Dakota this afternoon into early this evening as lower cigs
from Saskatchewan/Manitoba continue to slide south. At this time
it appears that the lower cigs should remain east of the KMOT
terminal, though will continue to monitor. Remaining locations
should remain VFR. Gusty west to northwesterly winds will continue
this afternoon before gradually diminishing this evening.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
415 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016
High pressure remains in control across eastern KY this afternoon.
We have seen some smoke in the far south and east, however, at
this hour LOZ has managed to come up to 8SM. Given the more
isolated nature will continue to leave this out of the grid.
Latest model data is keeping the cloud cover out of the region
this afternoon into tonight. Opted to keep this thought going
based on the SAT trends and the very dry conditions in place.
Given the lack of cloud cover and very low afternoon dewpoints
did bump temps down another degree or so for tonight. There could
be some fog closer to bodies of water, but this should remain
limited given the dry air.
Monday we will see temperatures begin to increase to near normal
for highs this time of year. The dewpoints make some recovery and
will lead to RHs in the mid to upper 30s. That said not sure this
will aid much on the wildfire front. We also get brushed by the
upper low and enough moisture in place will being some clouds to
the far east by the afternoon.
Monday night did bump the valleys down slightly, as there is still
a chance of early decoupling. We will however see a slight
increase in southerly flow toward dawn. This as a dry cold front
approaches form the west. Clouds will also increase in the western
portions of the CWA toward 12Z hour.
Model wise overall decent handle on the near term period given the
quiet nature of the forecast. The morning lows in the valleys are
better captured by the MOSGUIDE. In terms of the dry air the short
term models like the HRRR/RUC seem to have the best picture
overall.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 415 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016
A fairly active upper level pattern through the extended portion
of the forecast is showing a higher than desired amount of spread
among the various models. They all depict an area of relatively
benign troughing moving out of the Ohio Valley with a trailing
amount of weak energy to move over eastern Kentucky on Tuesday.
This energy does start to enhance as it passes by Tuesday night,
and the models start to more significantly diverge. However,
there is sufficient agreement that a period of strong ridging then
slides into the region from the southwest peaking on Thursday for
Kentucky. How this ridge moves east and breaks down for the
weekend will be the stickiest point of this forecast. the ECMWF is
faster and more aggressive with a closed trough lifting through
the Northern Plains Thursday night while the GFS lags behind with
its, also closed, low. The CMC sheds little light on the situation
with its much weaker and further south solution for its low center
at 00z Friday. These differences magnify into Friday with the GFS
seemingly splitting the difference in its placement but on the
stronger side of the magnitude taking the low into the Upper
Midwest to start the weekend. Eventually the differences start to
fade through the weekend as the GFS and ECMWF take the core of the
system through the Northern Great Lakes. However, there remains
enough differences aloft to affect the speed and timing of a cold
front through Kentucky on Saturday with accompanying mid level
energy. This feature starts to lift out on Sunday with the ECMWF
continuing quicker than the GFS. The net result is similar,
though, with lingering northwest flow and weak energy aloft
continuing to stream into the Ohio Valley and through the Southern
Appalachians. Given the fairly large amount of uncertainty with
the key components of this forecast will not deviate much from a
blended solution until the models start to break toward one
particular scenario.
Sensible weather will feature a drying front passing through
eastern Kentucky on Tuesday and a few sprinkles from this cannot
be ruled out, but will keep it dry for now. The next area of high
pressure moves in from the southwest and will be a milder one than
we had this weekend. Accordingly, temperatures will return to
above normal through the end of the work week. Breezy conditions
will be possible and a concern for ongoing fire suppression on
Friday as the cold front starts to encroach from the west and the
high shifts off to the east. The saving grace during this time may
be humidities higher than this weekend and to start the week as
moisture starts to return to our area from midweek on through
Friday night. The front looks to pass through the CWA on
Saturday, earlier in the ECMWF and later in the GFS with a decent
hope for some rain. However, it will be a quick hitter moving into
a dry environment so will not play it up at this time and take the
model output with a grain of salt. Even so, only a quarter inch of
rain can be anticipated with the most favorable model solution -
so no big help to the fire situation is anticipated from this
front. However, the change in air mass following the front could
bring some relief with higher dewpoints and humidity expected for
the latter part of the weekend into the start of next week.
Finally, will have to watch the higher terrain of far eastern
Kentucky Sunday and into Monday for a small potential of flurries
- first of the season - if enough wrap around moisture settles to
our east.
Made some adjustments to the CR init from the SuperBlend for
terrain distinctions each night - mainly for the latter part of
the week. Also fine tuned PoPs to better mimic a frontal passage
on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016
VFR and light winds remains the story for most through the TAF
period. There is some isolated smoke across the southeast KY this
afternoon. Therefore will continue with a VIS restriction for
smoke at LOZ. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on if this will
clear out this evening. HRRR smoke product would show at least
some elevated light smoke issues lingering in that area through
the evening into the night. Right now will cutoff the MVFR VIS by
00Z, but this may need to be extended further particularly once
the inversion sets up.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
215 PM PST Sun Nov 13 2016
.DISCUSSION...Current visible image shows partly cloudy skies over
most of the area. This has resulted in mild temperatures. The
models are in fairly good agreement with the timing of the next
front with some minor differences. First the NAM and high res HRRR
are showing a slower arrival of the front and rain. Given the
models show a wave forming along the front this afternoon and it
is still nearly parallel to the upper flow suspect the slower NAM
and HRRR solution is correct and the forecast for this evening and
tonight will reflect this.
The front will gradually move into the area late tonight and remain
nearly stationary during the day Monday bringing an extended period
of wet weather. With favorable upslope flow from the southwest,
rainfall totals will be highest along the coast and coastal
mountains. Rain totals in those areas late tonight through Monday
night could range between 1-2 inches. The models hint at some
elevated instability Monday afternoon and evening, so could not rule
out an isolated thunderstorm or two. Not convinced anything will
happen, but could not rule it out either.
Both models are in pretty good agreement showing a weak surface low
forming along the front Monday evening, moving northeast Monday
night followed by a secondary front Tuesday afternoon. However they
have not been consistent with the timing of the front. The previous
run showed the NAM was the faster solution. Now its the GFS. Either
way we`ll be looking at another day of wet weather with the the
coast and coastal mountains.
Much colder air will begin to move into the area Tuesday evening and
snow levels will drop rather quickly to around 3500 over the west
side by early Wednesday morning. But could briefly lower to around
3000 feet in heavier showers. Therefore there is a good chance
travelers are likely to experience winter-like conditions with snow
covered roads for early morning commute. Especially for places like
Lake of the Woods, Diamond Lake, Crater Lake and highway 66.
Additionally, I-5 near Siskiyou summit could pick up an inch or so by
early Wednesday morning. In addition, models show 500mb temperatures
between -28 and -32C moving over the marine waters and coastline, so
have introduced a slight chance of thunderstorms.
An upper trough with a cold air mass aloft (the coldest so far this
season) will be overhead Wednesday with snow levels starting out
around 3500 feet, but could briefly lower to 3000 feet in heavier
showers. Showers will continue during the day Wednesday with a few
that could be moderate to heavy in the afternoon. Pass road
temperatures should warm up enough during the day to remain wet,
unless a heavier shower passes by in which case snow could briefly
accumulate on them. Keep in mind were still a few days out and
details on this could change, so watch for updates.
The upper trough axis will shift east Wednesday night and an upper
ridge will nose into southwest Oregon. However a moist northwest
flow will continue and while showers will be on the decrease, they
may not end completely along the Coast Range and Cascades. Also if
there`s enough breaks in the cloud cover, then temperatures could
drop near or below freezing over the passes resulting in icy roads.
Also temperatures could get close to freezing in portions of the
Rogue and Illinois Valley if there`s enough clearing, but
confidence on this is low. -Petrucelli
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday through next Sunday)...
The upper trough axis will shift east Wednesday night and a ridge
will nose into coastal waters. This is slower than in yesterday`s
run. With a moist NW flow, showers will be on the decrease but may
not end completely along the Coast Range and Cascades. Also if
there`s enough breaks in the cloud cover, then temperatures could
drop near or below freezing over the passes resulting in icy roads.
Thursday night will be a transition day. The upper ridge will build
into the area bringing dry and milder weather. The ridge begin to
shift east Friday through Saturday as an upper low offshore slowly
moves east towards the Pac NW. Both models are coming into better
agreement and confidence is moderate that we will see light rain
spreading into the coastal counties on Friday, and possibly into the
Illinois Valley Friday afternoon/evening. Confidence is also
moderate that next weekend will be wet from the Cascades west,
possibly into the Klamath/Tulelake Basin as well. However, southerly
flow off the Siskiyou Mtns could again delay rain into the Rogue
Valley until mid way through next weekend. The current model trend
keeps Lakeview/Alturas dry until Sunday. /FB
&&
.AVIATION...13/18Z TAF cycle...IFR cigs in the Roseburg area is
starting to break. Expect local IFR/MVFR cigs near the coastal range
with terrain partly obscured north of the Umpqua Divide. Ceilings
will gradually lower along the coast and MVFR with light rain will
arrive north of Cape Blanco around 06z. Conditions will lower to IFR
along the north coast overnight. Light rain and MVFR CIGS will
spread into the rest of the coast and inland into Douglas County
overnight with terrain becoming obscured. Ceilings will lower along
and west of the Cascades Monday morning. /FB
Note: The ceilometer at FAA site KOTH is out of service, so there
will be no ceiling observations available generally between the
hours of 04Z and 14Z.
&&
.MARINE...Updated 830 AM PST Sunday, 13 November 2016...
Steep seas will gradually lower today. However, steep seas and gusty
south winds will redevelop this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold
front. 00z model guidance has come in with BL winds peaking at
around 35 kt, a touch lower than previous runs had shown.
Therefore, we have cancelled the gale watch. Even so, we expect
conditions to be hazardous to small craft tonight through Monday
evening as the front slowly moves through and an area of low
pressure tracks northeastward along it. Winds will gradually lower
Monday night, but seas will remain elevated through at least
Thursday. Another strong front could bring gales and very steep seas
Friday into Saturday. -Spilde/FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 PM PST Thursday
for PZZ350-356.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PST Thursday for PZZ370-376.
$$
...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Slightly Modified...
Wed-Sat...Drier air continues to build into the area Wed in a
northerly flow produced by high pressure north of the area. This
high will then build into the southeast U.S., veering winds to
onshore by late week. This will begin to modify the dry airmass, but
overall moisture looks to low to mention any rain chances through
the rest of the work week. The next cold front approaches the Deep
South on Sat. Highs will generally be in the M-U 70s to around 80
degrees and lows in the 50s to L60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR Stratus/fog possible overnight, especially northward from
KTIX-KISM. See Discussion section above. Otherwise no significant
weather expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight-Monday...Right now, it does not appear that a significant
northerly wind surge will reach the local waters. We are
forecasting winds to be 10 knots or less, except north of Cape
Canaveral Mon afternoon where northerly winds may increase to
10-15 knots. A northeast swell will boost sea heights to 4 feet in
the open Atlantic.
Mon night-Fri...Weak frontal boundary moves south of the coastal
waters from early thru mid-week. N/NW winds will follow behind the
boundary thru early Thu, then veer onshore into Fri. Wind speeds
generally 10-15 kts. High pressure will build across the deep south
and then the eastern seaboard thru late week. Seas will reside at or
below 4 feet through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 60 74 54 75 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 61 78 58 77 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 61 78 61 75 / 10 10 30 20
VRB 61 80 62 76 / 10 10 40 30
LEE 60 74 55 76 / 10 10 10 10
SFB 61 76 56 76 / 10 10 10 10
ORL 63 77 59 76 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 61 80 61 76 / 10 10 40 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lascody
LONG TERM....Sedlock
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
326 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday afternoon) issued at
315PM CST Sun Nov 13 2016
forecast concerns in the short term will mainly be above normal
temperatures/near record highs and dry weather...then attention
turns to the storm system Thursday night through Saturday.
Visible satellite imagery and metar observations show mainly clear
skies and warm southwest breezes ahead of a wind shift/cold front that
is moving into northeast Nebraska. h85 temperatures were around
+15 deg. C and good mixing has translated into temperatures in the
mid 60s.
A dry and cooler forecast for into Monday. A longwave h5 trough
is responsible for dragging the cold front through the area
tonight. Although the NAM12 does try to spread clouds northward
from Kansas toward Nebraska and nw MO/sw IA, the RAP tends to
limit these clouds. The northern stream of the trough lags the
southern stream and we could see some patchy mid clouds and high
clouds with this weak trough, then as the cirrus spills over the
ridge. Surface high pressure and light and variable winds should
allow temperatures to fall back into the 30s for most spots
tonight. Normal lows are a bit colder in the 20s.
The models are in good agreement that unseasonably warm weather
is on the way for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. South flow
increases ahead of developing low pressure and a storm system
that will affect the Rockies. There is a weak frontal passage
Tuesday and this could help drop lows for Wednesday morning. Normal
highs are in the 40s, and we are forecasting highs in the 60s and
70s each day. The records for Tues./Wed/Thu are in the 70s and
Wednesday`s are particularly vulnerable -OMA 73/OFK 74/LNK 74.
Bumped up winds Thursday ahead of the frontal passage and boosted
highs as well.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 315 PM CST
Sun Nov 13 2016
By Thursday night, there are significant timing and location
differences with the storm system. Although the surface systems
are not as out of sync, the mid level systems are quite out of
sync. The EC is faster and weaker...while the GFS/Canadian are
slower and deeper over the Rockies. These differences account for
differing chances for rain/storms/snow. Our forecast area is
currently weaker on the deep moisture return with the EC and on
the southern fringe of where the better potential for snow is on
both the GFS/EC. Strong winds are expected Fri/Sat as well on the
backside of the cold front. Timing will likely be adjusted,
however we currently have a chance for showers Thursday night and
Friday. A few storms could develop ahead of the dry slot late
Thursday night or Friday a.m. A mix of rain/snow or rain changing
to snow in northeast Nebraska Friday night/Sat. a.m.
WPC hints that the spread of the models has increased since
yesterday and that lack of reliable data across parts of Canada
is contributing to these differences.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2016
Expect VFR conditions through the period. Winds will be somewhat
gusty from the south/southwest this afternoon, mainly at KOMA and
KLNK. A weak cold front will continue to push southeast this
afternoon and evening, with winds shifting to northwest or north
behind the front. Some mid level clouds (mainly SCT) will move
into the area tonight.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Miller