Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/11/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
953 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
Temperatures have quickly fallen with efficient radiational
cooling in the surface high axis, especially across western North
Dakota through 0330 UTC. Thus, have lowered overnight lows into
the lower to mid 20s for much of western and central North Dakota
per these observed trends.
UPDATE Issued at 652 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
Did add a mention of patchy fog in the surface ridge axis across
central North Dakota late tonight into tomorrow morning with this
update per trends in the 21-23 UTC RAP and HRRR iterations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 151 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
Quiet in the short term period. High pressure from Saskatchewan
and eastern Montana will move east across western and central North
Dakota tonight and then into Minnesota on Friday. This will bring
clear and cool conditions tonight and Friday.
The only changes from guidance were the usual tweaks down a few
degrees for minimum temperatures tonight, and up a few degrees for
forecast highs on Friday in the west. We did also bump up
southerly winds in the west Friday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
Mainly dry and seasonably mild conditions continue through mid
week.
Unseasonably mild conditions are expected as we begin the long
term period. Forecast highs will likely top out about 5-10 degrees
short of records on Saturday but upper 50s to mid 60s will still
be 10 to 20 degrees above normal.
A series of quick moving shortwaves track across the northern
plains within a quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern Saturday
night through the middle of next week. Little more than a passing
sprinkle or shower is expected Sunday through Wednesday with
temperatures remaining above normal. Late in the extended period,
an upper level trough that moves onto the west coast around mid
week, may bring an increased potential for moisture with at least
a brief period of cooler temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 951 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
Patchy fog is possible across central North Dakota late tonight
into Friday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast for
the 00 UTC TAF cycle.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1025 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build into the region through
Friday. A cold front with limited moisture will cross the region
Friday night, ushering in dry and much cooler weather for the
weekend. A coastal low and an upper level disturbance could bring
showers to the area Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A northwest flow will prevail aloft as the region remains
positioned between a closed upper low over the western Atlantic
and a ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South.
Meanwhile, strong high pressure at the surface will build into the
region from the Southern Plains.
Excellent radiational cooling conditions are expected overnight
given clear skies, light winds and dry surface conditions.
Temperatures are forecast to be on the cool side of guidance
because of this, with lows generally ranging from 35-40 degrees,
although a few cooler temperatures are possible in low- lying and
well sheltered locations. Given the dry surface conditions, the
potential for frost should be very limited in most locations and
have not added mention to the forecast.
Based on the latest HRRR, smoke from wildfires burning in the
mountains of NC, SC, GA and TN will begin to spread across the
area from the northwest late tonight. Some visibility restrictions
are possible prior to sunrise Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong surface Canadian high pressure system will descend
across the Upper Midwest on Friday and into the Eastern U.S. this
weekend. Portions of the Midlands and CSRA may experience smoke
from Southern Appalachian wildfires on Friday. This surface high
will bring the coldest air into the Southeast U.S. since March
with widespread frost possible Saturday Night into Sunday Morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak upper trough is forecast to slowly drift toward the
Southeast U.S early next week. This trough may draw moisture into
the CSRA and Midlands late Sunday Night into Monday which could
end a five week rainless streak.
Weak upper troughing persists into the middle of next week. There
may be a chance of showers across portions of the Midlands and CSRA
Tuesday and Wednesday, however the probabilities may be too low to
show up in the extended forecast. Temperatures will warm to slightly
above climo for mid November. High pressure aloft builds in from the
west on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to reside over the area
through Friday with dry weather expected. Smoke from wildfires
over the mountains of NC, SC, GA and TN are forecast by the HRRR
to spread over the terminals late tonight and increase in
concentration on Friday. While it is difficult to predict this far
out where the smoke plume will have the greatest impacts and to
what extent those impacts will be, added mention of smoke (FU)
into the TAFs beginning at 09Z, then indicate MVFR visibilities
possible after 12Z. Expect additional adjustments as trends become
better established.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Smoke could impact the TAF sites into
Friday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Danger will remain elevated through Friday. Although winds
will be fairly light, minimum relative humidity values on Friday
in the upper teens to mid 20s, combined with a lack of recent
rainfall/dry fuels will lead to an increased risk for wildfire
ignition across the Midlands and CSRA. A fire danger statement has
been issued in coordination with the USDA Forest Service and SC
Forestry Commission. The SC Forestry Commission has also expanded
the burn ban to include the western Midlands and
Lexington/Richland counties.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1039 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A gusty southwesterly flow of mild air will persist tonight into
early Friday, before a strong but relatively dry cold front drops
south through the state. Much colder air will work into the area
Friday night and Saturday as a large area of high pressure builds
southward from Canada.
Temperatures will quickly moderate again early next week, as the
high moves southeast of the area, and winds shift to the
southwest.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Increasing llvl pressure gradient overnight will cause a
moderately gusty WSW wind to spread east across the CWA. Clear
skies and a weaker p-gradient for the next several hours will
allow the boundary layer to decouple across the Susq Valley and
points east. We`re seeing that now at KSEG where the 02Z temp has
dipped to 38F with calm air.
Latest...00Z HRRR Guidance shows the surface cold front pushing
south across the nrn mtns of PA between 11-13Z. A few isolated to
widely scattered light rain showers will occur invof the cfront,
yielding just a few...to several hundredths of an inch of QPF at
most, per a blend of high res and ENS guidance.
The onset of showers across the far north will be around or after
09Z at the earliest.
Min temps will vary from the upper 30s to lower 40s across much of
the northern and western mtns...to the mid and upper 40s across
the scent mtns and potions of the Mid and Lower Susq Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Second surge of cold air is due in 12 to 18Z on Friday. This would
usher in the colder air aloft. The GEFS implies -2C in NW by 15Z
on Friday. So introduced snow/rain showers 12-18Z then snow
showers in NW areas then into southwest mountains.
Gusty winds behind the cold front (gusting between 20 and 25 mph)
will make it feel like mid-November. All the prolonged warm
weather may have left us sensitive to normal so it will feel
chilly to most of us.
Winds abate Friday evening and it may well be the coldest night of
the season to date.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Colder temperatures expected for the weekend behind Friday`s cold
front as 850MB temps fall about 15C (from around 10C to -5C) in
the 24-hours ending late eve Friday. 1032MB high over Ohio Valley
will gradually fill as it edges eastward through Sat night. CAA
will keep temps in the 40s on Sat, and sandwich that between two
chilly nights.
As the surface high moves southeast of the area by Sunday, a
strong westerly flow of air will form in lower-levels, while an
upper wave pulls warmer air aloft up along the Appalachians -
resulting in temperatures slightly above normal again.
This weak upper low lifts through Mon night into Tue, bringing low
chances for light showers. A second wave/weak trough arrives
midweek, keeping mention of chance light showers around. Due to
weaker nature of these systems, model spread on details remains on
the higher side. But it looks like overall temps remain on the
mild side for mid- November.
Ridge builds in for late week ahead of a more potent system
lifting out of the Rockies into the Great Lakes. Through Fri,
impacts of this will remain off to our west, but colder and
potentially showery weather looks like a good bet for next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A strong flow westerly aloft will overspread the region tonight ahead
of an approaching cold front. This will result in LLWS,
developing early this evening across Northwest Pa and by around
midnight across Southeast Pa. Passage of the cold front will mix
gusty winds to the surface and end the LLWS threat Friday morning.
Current model data suggests this frontal passage will occur
across Northwest Pa just before dawn and over Southeast Pa by late
morning.
Model soundings indicate a period of MVFR cigs are likely late
tonight and early Friday morning at KBFD/KJST and even perhaps at
KUNV/KAOO. Downsloping flow should ensure VFR conditions
elsewhere.
Gusty NW winds will buffet the entire region Friday behind the
cold front. Bufkit soundings support frequent gusts to around
25kts.
Winds abate Friday night. Mainly VFR.
Outlook...
Sat-Tue...No sig wx expected.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Grumm/Lambert
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
702 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
Gusty southwest winds continued this afternoon across the lower
peninsula of Michigan in advance of a cold front. Winds will become
northerly tonight and continue into Friday but no precipitation is
expected. High pressure will dominate the weather this weekend
with temperatures below normal until Sunday...when a warming
trend will resume. Precipitation chances will increase by the
middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 221 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
Strong winds persisted across west Michigan this afternoon in
advance of a cold front. While gusts early this morning were the
highest over northern Lower Michigan...the stronger gusts have
spread into west Michigan...with KGRR showing a 31 knot gust at
noon. Do not expect conditions to worsen...and do not anticipate
any wind related headlines with the afternoon package.
A dry frontal passage is expected this evening due to a lack of
moisture. Winds will become northerly but not as strong as the
prefrontal winds today. Forecast soundings indicate the surge of
dry air above 850 mb after the front passes by. Expect to see
clouds develop around 850 anyway because of the sharp cooling that
will occur. CIRA SIMNAM/SIMWRF shows the area of clouds spreading
south overnight.
The headline for Friday into Saturday will be the below normal
temperatures...which have been a rarity across the region so far
this fall. Highs Friday will be in the upper 40s to lower
50s...with lows Saturday morning solidly in the 20s in most
locations. A gradual warming trend then develops Saturday as the
surface high departs and a southerly wind resumes.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
No big storms in the extended period. Showers are possible Tuesday
night and Wednesday as an upper trough digs across the Great Lakes.
Confidence on timing of the precip has increased as ensemble
spread has decreased. The best forcing in terms of the upper
level jet remains well north of the forecast area, so only a slight
chances of precip is forecast for the far northern zones. A more
significant storm could be approaching by the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 701 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
In the short term the only issue is the wind, with 40 to 45 knots
at 2000 ft agl, it made sense to put low level wind shear this
evening. The core of strongest winds is through the area by 09z
once the front is through.
Behind the cold front is an area of low clouds (seen on both the
visible and IR loops) currently north of Lake Superior. These
clouds will trail the front and bring 3 to 6 hours of vfr cigs to
all of the taf sites (looked at the RAP HRRR and NAM). By late
morning or early afternoon there should be enough dry air on
strong north winds to clear skies across the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this afternoon through Friday
night. Greatest threat for advisory conditions may be limited to
northern four nearshore zones tomorrow and tomorrow night with
northerly winds...but do not anticipate any adjustments to the
current advisory at this time. Additional marine headlines may be
required late Saturday afternoon through early Monday as the
southerly flow redevelops.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 221 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
All rivers are below bankfull, but many in the Grand River basin
remain above normal for November. No significant rainfall events are
expected in the next week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Ostuno
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...MWS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1234 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build into the region through
Friday. A cold front with limited moisture will cross the region
Friday night, ushering in dry and much cooler weather for the
weekend. A coastal low and an upper level disturbance could bring
showers to the area Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A northwest flow will prevail aloft as the region remains
positioned between a closed upper low over the western Atlantic
and a ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South.
Meanwhile, strong high pressure at the surface will build into the
region from the Southern Plains.
Excellent radiational cooling conditions are expected overnight
given clear skies, light winds and dry surface conditions.
Temperatures are forecast to be on the cool side of guidance
because of this, with lows generally ranging from 35-40 degrees,
although a few cooler temperatures are possible in low- lying and
well sheltered locations. Given the dry surface conditions, the
potential for frost should be very limited in most locations and
have not added mention to the forecast.
Based on the latest HRRR, smoke from wildfires burning in the
mountains of NC, SC, GA and TN will begin to spread across the
area from the northwest late tonight. Some visibility restrictions
are possible prior to sunrise Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong surface Canadian high pressure system will descend
across the Upper Midwest on Friday and into the Eastern U.S. this
weekend. Portions of the Midlands and CSRA may experience smoke
from Southern Appalachian wildfires on Friday. This surface high
will bring the coldest air into the Southeast U.S. since March
with widespread frost possible Saturday Night into Sunday Morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak upper trough is forecast to slowly drift toward the
Southeast U.S early next week. This trough may draw moisture into
the CSRA and Midlands late Sunday Night into Monday which could
end a five week rainless streak.
Weak upper troughing persists into the middle of next week. There
may be a chance of showers across portions of the Midlands and CSRA
Tuesday and Wednesday, however the probabilities may be too low to
show up in the extended forecast. Temperatures will warm to slightly
above climo for mid November. High pressure aloft builds in from the
west on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to reside over the area
through Friday with dry weather expected. IFR/MVFR fog being
reported at OGB...although appears to be shallow. This fog may
linger through the early morning with near calm winds.
Smoke from wildfires over the mountains of NC, SC, GA and TN are
forecast by the HRRR to spread over the terminals late tonight and
increase in concentration on Friday. Current observations suggest
smoke has moved into the Piedmont. While it is difficult to
predict this far out where the smoke plume will have the greatest
impacts and to what extent those impacts will be, added mention of
smoke (FU) into the TAFs beginning at 09Z, then indicate MVFR
visibilities possible after 12Z. Expect additional adjustments as
trends become better established.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Smoke could impact the TAF sites into
Friday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Danger will remain elevated through Friday. Although winds
will be fairly light, minimum relative humidity values on Friday
in the upper teens to mid 20s, combined with a lack of recent
rainfall/dry fuels will lead to an increased risk for wildfire
ignition across the Midlands and CSRA. A fire danger statement has
been issued in coordination with the USDA Forest Service and SC
Forestry Commission. The SC Forestry Commission has also expanded
the burn ban to include the western Midlands and
Lexington/Richland counties.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
501 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep south across the region today followed by
much cooler air that will continue through Saturday as a large
area of high pressure builds southward from Canada.
Temperatures will begin to moderate by Sunday into early next
week as the high moves southeast of the area bringing a return
milder flow out of the southwest.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is moving south into the lower lakes, on schedule to
pass through the region this morning, and off to our southeast by
early to mid afternoon. Moisture is pretty sparse with the front,
in fact the ensembles show below normal PWATs entering northern Pa
by mid day so it`s hard to get excited about much in the way of
shower activity. The HRRR is most aggressive, it can be called
that, cranking out some small QPF over the northwestern mountains
and even a few drips into the Laurels. Given the shallow nature of
the moisture I confined a few hundreths to just the NW with
sprinkles (if that) over the remainder of the western higher
elevations.
The surge of cold air will mean many places will see their high
temperatures by late morning or early afternoon with steady or
falling temps for the remainder of the day.
Gusty winds behind the cold front (gusting between 20 and 25 mph)
will make it feel like mid-November. All the prolonged warm
weather may have spoiled us so it will feel chilly.
The wind will slowly diminish overnight under a clearing sky. Lows
will drop into the 20s in most locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Saturday will start off chilly but bright, however plenty of
sunshine will do little to boost temperatures up much higher than
the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Colder temperatures to start the weekend will begin to moderate by
Sunday as a surface high moves off to our southeast and we enter
into a prolonged period of dry and mild weather. Above normal
readings are expected to last through at least the end of the
week.
There are differences between the models in how the upper air
pattern will evolve even as early as Saturday evening when the
ECMWF shows a closed upper low over Tennessee where the GFS/GEFS
show a weakness between the big burly upper high over the Midwest
and a trough off the east coast.
The ECMWF then uses the southeast low to slowly evolve and bring a
surge of moisture up the coast by later Monday where the GFS/GEFS
are much slower in carving out a trough over the eastern states.
By Tuesday the models diverge further leading to a period of low
confidence with the mention of small chances of light showers.
Eventually the models converge on the idea of a deep trough over
the eastern seaboard, but the differences in details keep the
confidence low on precip timing and extent. The ECMWF solution
would bring a cold front through the area later Wednesday into
Thursday while the GFS/GEFS would bring a significant cyclone up
the east coast.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
09Z TAFS sent.
Lower clouds now moving into north central PA, as a cold
front drops southward. Dynamics with the front rather strong,
but moisture is limited. Perhaps a brief light shower. The
main thing will be strong westerly winds. LLWS in the TAF
package.
The airmass is quite cold at low levels, so clouds could
linger into at least into the early afternoon hours.
Overall looking at clearing skies later this afternoon and
VFR conditions into the weekend, as high pressure builds into
the region. Temperatures will be on the cool side, but will
moderate by Sunday, as winds shift more to the southwest again.
Outlook...
Sat-Tue...No sig wx expected.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
357 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally quiet conditions are expected through the entire
outlook with a couple of reinforcing shots of cooler air this
weekend and next week. Late next week, it is possible that a more
formidable cold front will make its way southward through North
and Central TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Surface analysis this morning showed a precipitation-free cold
front was continuing to progress southward through southern KS and
the OK/TX panhandles. A little closer to home, 11-3.9 micron
satellite imagery in conjunction with RAP mesoanalysis revealed
that low level moisture was slowly creeping towards the north and
northeast. Dewpoint depressions out across western zones are
generally in the 1-2 degree range and with the possibility that
some low level moisture may at some point later this morning be
juxtaposed with this nearly saturated airmass, I`ve included a
mention of patchy fog. The threat for widespread dense fog will be
monitored through the morning hours, but this should at be
limited to areas that are sheltered and/or near bodies of water. I
included a mention of patchy fog along the Red River where recent
trends in the HRRR suggest that some reduced visibilities will be
possible as well.
In addition to the possibility for patchy fog, subtle isentropic
ascent along the 310K (around 650mb) theta surface likely explains
the elevated and weak nature of returns on radar down across
southeast zones. With this convection being very high based, I`ll
carry a 10 PoP with a mention of sprinkles for the morning hours
mainly for southeast counties. Otherwise, skies should range from
partly to mostly sunny across much of North and Central TX with
high temperatures generally in the 70s.
The cold front should slide through without much fanfare this
evening and into Saturday morning given the shallow moisture in
place right now. I will carry a mention of isolated sprinkles
across Central TX as additional weak isentropic ascent along the
300-310K theta surfaces continues. The HRRR and to some degree the
4km NAM advertise some weak elevated convection here. There is
some doubt as to the sustenance of the moisture from the
southwest after daytime mixing. If this moisture remains and is
not mixed out, it`s possible that some low end rain chances may be
needed for tonight, especially since this is the most likely area
where moisture may be a tad deeper. In the wake of the front,
temperatures should fall into the upper 40s across northwest
counties to 50s elsewhere.
On Saturday, the front should stall out somewhere across Central
TX before it becomes ill-defined. As high pressure builds to the
east, winds just above the surface should gradually turn towards
the east and eventually become the southeast. While ascent will
be weak, there appears to be enough shallow low level moisture
along the elevated frontal surface. This combined with
condensation pressure deficits on the order of 10mb should
support some low/mid cloud cover on Saturday. The best ascent
appears to be out west, and I`ll lean on some of the more
aggressive model guidance with regards to cooler Max T`s and cloud
cover. Right now, it doesn`t appear the moisture is sufficient for
PoPs and I`ll keep the inherited dry forecast for this weekend
going.
Temperatures on Sunday will moderate as breezy south winds return
as the pesky upper low out to the west is finally enveloped back
into the main flow aloft. There is a slight southwesterly
component to the winds out across western zones and it`s possible
that current Max T`s on Sunday are a little too cool. For now,
I`ve stayed close to the previous forecast given that weak low
level ascent may still produce some lingering low/mid level
clouds. We will examine this a bit closer over the next several
days, but similar to Saturday it appears that Sunday will be dry.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...
Monday through Tuesday---precipitation-free conditions should
continue as the upper air pattern remains very active to the north
of our region. A series of shortwave troughs will send a couple
of cold fronts southward towards North and Central TX. The first
will arrive on Monday afternoon. Similar to the weekend, low level
moisture looks too shallow to support precipitation and at this
time on Monday, it may only support a few clouds. High
temperatures will continue to moderate on Monday given the
southwest winds ahead of the front. High temperatures for areas
just south of the front should warm into the mid 70s to perhaps
upper 70s. Tuesday should feature lower temperatures as weak cool
advection continues through the day. It is possible that if the
front is very shallow, post-frontal mixing could allow
temperatures to stay warmer than advertised. For now, I`ll side
with some of the cooler guidance and adjust if necessary later.
For Wednesday and beyond---Models diverge somewhat with regards to
low level moisture and thus rain chances. Most models show a quick
return of shallow moisture northward as a stout upper low
translates eastward through the Northern Plains. The GFS is the
most bullish and lifts a large (though shallow) amount of low
level moisture northward ahead of a stout cold front. The
ECMWF/Canadian are a bit more conservative, but also shows a
moist tongue lifting northward ahead of this boundary. For now,
I`ll compromise with just some low end rain chances across eastern
zones on Thursday as the GFS appears to be the aggressive outlier with
the moisture return, especially since it pushes a fair amount of
dry air southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of rain
chances, most long range models show a substantial cool down in
the extended portion of the forecast.
24-Bain
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1151 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2016/
/06Z TAFs/
VFR conditions will prevail. A weak pressure gradient will assure
light surface winds prevail into the upcoming weekend. The wind
direction will be primarily westerly until a cold front veers the
wind to the north on Friday. Postfrontal speeds will remain light.
Metroplex...
The top of the nocturnal boundary layer may approach saturation
around daybreak, but this should only result in a few puffs of
stratocu at most.
Waco...
Light winds will allow the surface layer to reach saturation
around daybreak, resulting in some light ground fog.
25
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 52 67 52 71 / 5 10 10 5 10
Waco 73 53 70 53 72 / 5 10 10 10 10
Paris 74 48 65 45 68 / 5 10 5 5 10
Denton 75 48 65 51 71 / 5 10 10 5 10
McKinney 74 50 65 50 69 / 5 10 10 5 10
Dallas 74 53 68 52 72 / 5 10 10 5 10
Terrell 75 52 67 50 71 / 5 10 5 5 10
Corsicana 73 54 69 51 72 / 10 10 5 5 10
Temple 73 54 68 53 72 / 10 10 5 10 10
Mineral Wells 71 48 65 51 71 / 5 10 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
91/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
400 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push south across the region this morning.
A dry and cool airmass will settle into the area behind the front
for the first part of the weekend. The dry conditions will then
continue into early next week as temperatures begin to slowly
moderate.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak cold front currently pushing into northern Ohio will
continue to work its way south through our area this morning.
Moisture is fairly limited with this feature but there is a bit of
an increase in 925-850 mb moisture behind the front later this
morning and into this afternoon. The combination of this and the
developing low level CAA should allow for some scattered to
possibly broken cu/sc development, especially across eastern
portions of our area. This should also help keep temperatures on
the cooler side, ranging from the lower 50s in the north to the
mid to upper 50s in the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build in from the northwest tonight
through Saturday and then drift slowly off to our southeast
through the day on Sunday. A little bit of low level moisture will
linger into tonight, but as we lose the diurnal heating, expect
skies to become mostly clear tonight. The dry conditions and
mainly clear skies will then persist through the rest of the
weekend.
The core of the coldest air will be centered just off to our east
Saturday morning. This will result in lows tonight in the upper
20s to lower 30s with highs on Saturday only in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Lows Saturday night will again be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. We will then start to get into a little bit of return
flow on the back side of the high on Sunday, with readings
moderating back into the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The first part of the extended will feature an upper level ridge
building southeast into the lower Great Lakes while an upper level
low closes off somewhere near the middle Mississippi Valley. For
now, it appears that some clouds may increase in coverage Sunday
night into Monday as the low moves east/northeast along and south of
the Ohio River.
Upper level pattern transitions to a northwest orientation Tuesday
and Wednesday as a large scale mid level ridge builds northward into
the northern Plains. Some embedded s/wv energy may work its way
through our region during this period. Given overall dry pattern,
mainly clouds are expected, although the ECMWF/GFS hint at a small
threat of a few showers. Timing and coverage are inconsistent
between the two major synoptic models, so have kept the forecast
dry for now.
By the end of next week, large scale mid level ridge will traverse
east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large scale troughing and
a cool down may then occur by next weekend.
As for temperatures, fairly seasonable with highs in the 50s through
mid week, with warmer temperatures in the 60s possible as we head
into Thursday and moreso by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface cold front is currently approaching the Chicago area and
will march southeast towards the terminals this morning. As the
cold front moves through winds will turn from the north and be
gusty at times due to strong CAA and a tight pressure gradient.
Momentum transfer in the GFS, NAM, and RAP forecast soundings are
all showing peak gusts around 20 kts possible. This evening winds
will slowly come down as the pressure gradient weakens and surface
high pressure approaches the area from the north.
Forecast soundings on the NAM are also hinting at some IFR
cigs with the cold front passage but think this is overdone.
Current low light visible is not showing much at all and GFS
forecast soundings also don`t show much either. Low level RAP RH
fields further support this. Therefore have kept all TAF sites
VFR through the issuance.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected at this time.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Haines
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1201 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EST THU NOV 10 2016
Today, November 10th, marks the 41st anniversary of the sinking of
the Edmund Fitzgerald on Lk Superior. Though there are no strong low
pressure systems affecting the region this year, it certainly has
been a breezy day across the lake today and those stronger winds
will continue through tonight. Seeing high waves as well as did have
a earlier ship report of waves over 12 ft between Keweenaw Peninsula
and Isle Royale earlier today.
Otherwise we are experiencing a common theme lately as it is yet
another sunny and warm day across Upper Michigan. NWS Marquette
record high for today was 57 degrees. That record is no more though
as high thus far of 66 degrees has shattered it. Granted, the record
of 57 was on the lower end as most record highs into this part of
the month are well in the 60s and even low 70s. Unofficially, other
records are being set today based on available climate data at other
climate sites. In addition to the strong winds on Lk Superior, it
has been breezy over parts of Upper Michigan too with CMX observing
45 mph wind gust this morning. These warm and breezy conditions are
occurring ahead of sharp cold front dropping across central Manitoba
and northern Ontario. 12z raobs from Pickle Lake Ontario (CYPL) and
Churchhill Manitoba (CYYQ) showed strongest cold air advection and
the most moisture in low-levels was lagging the front over northern
Manitoba. Visible satellite shows this into this aftn with low
clouds still to the north of Lk Superior.
Front sweeps across Lk Superior early this evening then quickly over
rest of cwa by midnight. West-northwest winds will shift to the
northwest-north overnight. Wind gusts over 40 mph seem possible
along Lk Superior, especially from Big Bay and Marquette east to
Munising and Grand Marias/Muskallonge Lake State Park. Soundings
indicate could have 45-50 mph wind gusts at least briefly this
evening as 925mb winds up to 45 kts arrive this evening per RAP and
as cold air advection deepens blyr across Lk Superior. Since period
of strongest wind gusts will be brief, opted to issue SPS for
Marquette/Alger/Luce counties to highlight the gusty winds. With the
strong onshore winds will also see wave heights build over 10 feet
which could result in minor beach erosion. Will continue to mention
this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Other issue later tonight is possible lake effect rain/snow showers
as moisture up to h8 advects across Lk Superior and h85 temps drop to
-9c leading to delta t/s 18-19c. Soundings indicate at least a brief
time with the moist flow and some lift but there is also a lot of dry
air blo cloud base. Low-level winds are only briefly cyclonic and
convergent so that will not help matters either. Overall not
expecting a lot of precip but kept mention of isold rain/snow showers
into Fri morning before drying in blyr diminishes clouds and precip
chances into the aftn. Main story for Fri will be temps that are
20-30 degrees lower than readings today as highs will only reach
upper 30s to lower 40s. Those highs are not all that atypical from
normal mid November readings, but then again this is sure not your
typical Nov thus far as through Nov 9th the average temp is an
incredible 12.2 degrees above normal. Wow!
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 414 PM EST THU NOV 10 2016
Beginning Fri night...Center of sfc high pres will pass se across
the Midwest, not ideal for a really cold night as w to sw winds will
begin to pick up overnight with tightening pres gradient north of
the surface high/ridge. Nonetheless, ridge axis dropping se across
the area during the evening combined with precipitable water under
one-quarter inch will favor strong cooling during the evening.
Lowest temps, well down into the 20s, will be over the interior s
central, where the pres gradient will be weaker for a longer time
closer to the departing sfc hi pres.
The weekend will be dry and trend warmer as upstream ridge
deamplifies while shifting e in response to a shortwave moving in
off the Pacific NW Coast. Although that shortwave reaches northern
Ontario and the Upper Lakes Sun night, models not forecasting any
shra as airmass will be much too dry. In fact, there should be
little cloud cover. Waa pushes 850mb temps to as high as 10-12C Sat
night into Sun. Max temps on Sat in the upper 40s/lower 50s will
rise into the mid/upper 50s on Sun. Could hit 60F in locations that
see downsloping with a sw wind. Expect breezy conditions on both
days under tight pres gradient btwn high pres to the s and low pres
to the n and nw. Windier day will probably be on Sat as 925mb winds
are fcst in the 30-40kt range.
High pres ridge will build into the Upper Lakes on Mon in the wake
of the shortwave passing Sun night, providing a dry day. Models then
advertise another shortwave moving into the Upper Great Lakes Tue-
Wed time frame although timing differs between the models with the
GFS being more progressive than the slower ECMWF and the deeper and
even slower Canadian model. Will probably need to maintain chc pops
for Tue afternoon into early Wed. Late week, attention turns to what
could be a significant mid-upper trough moving out over the Plains
and the associated strong low pres center. Models differ on the
track of the low with the 12z GFS tracking the low just west of Lake
Superior late Fri and the 12z ECMWF bringing the low through central
Upper Mi. At this point, most of pcpn associated with system
should be rain spreading into the area at some point Thu night/Fri.
If farther east track of 12z ECMWF verifies, some light snow would
certainly be possible behind the system, next Fri night into
Sat...especially west.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1201 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2016
Gusty winds will continue into Friday. MVFR cigs will develop
overnight. Some lake effect rain and snow showers will be possible
late tonight into Fri morning, but will remain on the light side and
they should not lead to significant vsby reduction and will affect
mostly SAW. VFR conditions will return first at IWD Fri morning and
by afternoon at SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 340 PM EST THU NOV 10 2016
Active period on Lk Superior into the weekend. W-NW gales to 35
knots expected over mainly the east half of Lake Superior into
tonight. Then, SW gales to 35-45 knots are again expected Saturday
into Sunday morning, strongest over the north-central and western
lake as a low pressure system moves across southern Canada. Winds
are expected to diminish to less than 25 knots later Sun through
Tue.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ248>251-265>267.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for LSZ244-264.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
333 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS..
A dry cold front will cross the region today. Behind the front, a
large area of high pressure will build in from Canada bringing a
cool day for Saturday. The high center will shift to our south on
Sunday allowing for a milder trend and continued dry weather. Low
pressure is expected to develop somewhere along the East Coast
Monday or Tuesday bringing a chance for rain through mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Looking at the 24 hr change, temps are up about 4 to 8 degrees
across the CWA compared to last night at this time. The approaching
cold front is tracking across the eastern Great Lakes and will move
into our northwestern zones during the mid to late morning hours and
exit our southeastern zones by late afternoon.
With this timing in mind, highs are going to be about the same as
yesterday across our northwestern zones, but will climb 3 to 6
degrees warmer elsewhere. This will bring our central and southern
zones into the above normal category today. Normal diurnal trends
should speed up this afternoon behind the cold front across our
northern zones.
The 00z GFS and NAM bring some sprinkles or light showers close to
the Poconos and NW NJ around midday while the higher resolution
HRRR bring them in. They can`t be ruled out and have been added to
the grids.
Winds are going to be noticeable today once the cold front goes
through. Northwest gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range can be expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
The question tonight we`ve been wrestling with is frost. We still
have some southern counties we need to issue advisories or freeze
warnings for.
Overall, temps will fall into the mid 20`s north and west, hover
around 30 degrees across the Pinelands, and drop to the lower to
mid 30s across the Delaware Valley and the Delmarva.
The question is, how much is the wind going to affect frost
formation? We feel it`s going to be enough as winds will remain
breezy into the evening hours before tapering off to 5 to 10 mph
after midnight. We feel this should be enough to prohibit a
widespread frost. Patchy frost has been added to the grids and can
be expected across more sheltered areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A large and strong area of high pres will build over the region on
Sat. After a cold start, there could be frost or freeze in the
Delmarva, we are in for a chilly day, with temps not making it to
50 degrees in many areas.
The high will shift s and e by Sun into Mon and allow for a
warming trend, but it will still be dry.
Then, things get a bit more complicated. Low pres at the sfc is
expected to form somewhere off the sern cst on Mon. The guid
disagrees with how strong this low is and its assocd upr low. THe
ECMWF continues to be stronger than the GFS and the CMC supports
the EC soln. The EC/CMC have a closed low, while the GFS has more
of an open wave. The low/wave move nwd and in the EC soln brings
rain, mainly over ern sections beginning late Mon in the s and
continuing thru late Tue in the ne.
The GFS, because it is much weaker and doesn`t have a well
defined low keeps things dry essentially thru Wed when it brings
some rain to the area with the sfc trof and much wkr upr/low trof.
By this time the precip in the EC/CMC is over.
So the mdls are having a problem resolving the strength of the
low, there are also timing diffs of about 24 hours. Continue to
favor the EC/CMC soln, which has been much more consistent, but
this remains a lower confident fcst.
After the cold Sat, temps will will return to nr nrml values for
the rest of the extendd pd.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...VFR with northwest winds increasing to 25 to 30 kt behind
a cold frontal passage.
Tonight...VFR. Northwest winds will remain in the 10-20 kt range
during the evening hours before dropping in the 5-10 range after
midnight.
OUTLOOK...
Sat thru Mon...VFR conds under high pres. High confidence.
Tue...Low pres may form off the Atlc cst and move nwd bring SHRA
and sub-VFR conds. Low confidence attm..
&&
.MARINE...
Today...Southwesterly and westerly winds increased on the coastal
waters last evening, with gusts up to 25 kt. We`re also seeing an
increase across DE Bay per the Brandywine Shoal observing station.
As a result, SCAs are up everywhere, including the DE Bay.
These southwesterly to westerly winds will continue after sun-up.
Winds will shift to the northwest with the arrival of a cold front,
around mid day across the northern waters and mid to late afternoon
further south. Speeds on all waters will average 15-20 kt with gusts
up to 25-30 kt. We cannot rule out a brief gale gusts across our
northern ocean waters later today, but we feel they won`t be
widespread enough to warrant a Gale Warning.
Tonight...The northwest winds will continue to blow across areas
waters. Sustained winds in the 15-25 kt range can be expected with
gusts up to 30 kt. Like this afternoon, some gusts up to 35 kt can`t
be ruled out during the evening hours.
OUTLOOK...
Sat...SCA conds psbl in the mrng but then seas and wind will
decrease durg the day.
Sun and Mon...No marine headlines anticipated.
Tue...Seas will increase if low pres forms off the east coast but
will likely remain below SCA criteria. Low confidence attm
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the approach of the full moon on Monday the 14th, we`re
starting to see astronomical tides shift higher at high tide and
lower at low tide. The ETSS is showing enough of a departure late
tonight into tomorrow morning where some minor flooding would occur.
The NOS OFS is not. In this case, with a strong NW flow expected
today and a weaker offshore flow remaining in place overnight, we
don`t see a flooding threat at this time.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Kruzdlo
Short Term...Kruzdlo
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Kruzdlo/Nierenberg
Marine...Kruzdlo/Nierenberg
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Kruzdlo
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
929 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south of the area this morning. A few lake
effect showers may develop as colder air spreads across the lower
Great Lakes. High pressure from the plains states will move east
across the Ohio Valley this weekend. A weakening cold front
will approach the area on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Cold front now south of the area with cold advection to
occur through the remainder of the day into evening. Temperatures
at 850mb mb expected to drop to -5 to -7C by 00Z from about +1C at
12Z. Clouds have already filled in across the traditional snowbelt
counties of northeast Ohio and northwest PA this morning. To the
north more clouds across srn lwr MI associated with a short wave
will drop into the area by late morning/early afternoon and
additional clouds will develop off the lake as temps aloft cool.
Have increased clouds in the grids south of Lake Erie for the day
but no big changes elsewhere. Also adjusted hourly temps leaning
on the HRRR for steady/falling trends through the day. Continued
with chance pops through the morning and into early afternoon.
Radar shows development off Lake Huron and Lake Erie. Drying
moving in but may need to extend chance pops through the day
northeast Ohio next update if lake moisture/instability dominates
synoptic trends.
Original "Today" discussion...
The front will be south of the area by 12Z or so. A trailing
short wave will drop across the area this morning and in
combination with cold advection may kick up a shower or two
downwind of Lake Erie. With the flow becoming more northerly, the
best chance of showers may end up around Cleveland into the hills
to the south. The core of the coldest air is progged to move
across the area this evening but subsidence should develop behind
the short wave which will tend to suppress the lake effect. Given
the very dry air mass, hard to get excited about much precip and
will keep the pop low for today, "chance or slight chance". It may
be cold enough for a few flakes late in the day but since the
precipitation may be ending by that time will not mention the
chance of snow today.
Outside of the lake effect, the stratocumulus will fill in. It may
not become totally overcast but I expect it to become mostly
cloudy for a fair amount of the day. Temperatures may try to go up
a few degrees this morning where we get some sunshine but temps
will level off or drop a few degrees as the clouds develop and
cold advection continues.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The inversion is progged to be lowering by this evening. Have
removed the mention of lake effect precipitation for tonight given
the subsidence and dry air. Winds will lighten up and where it
clears, it will be one of the colder nights so far this season with
lows in the 20s. Lower 30s near the lake and where any clouds hang
on.
The flow is progged to back on Saturday. With warm advection
underway, the threat of lake effect will end although there could be
a few clouds in the morning. A swath of high clouds may brush NE OH
and NW PA otherwise sunshine and seasonable temperatures.
Sunday will be the blue ribbon day with sunny skies and highs in
the lower, perhaps mid 50s.
The models diverge a bit by Monday and the divergence has been
consistent the past few days. The GFS brings Gulf moisture back into
the area with increasing warm advection and an upper low tracking
across the Ohio Valley. The ECMWF and CMC are farther south with
the upper low and keep the weak cold front back over the western
Great Lakes. Not sure exactly how it will play out and cannot rule
out enough return flow that some clouds will develop on Monday.
Will keep the forecast dry on Monday since even the GFS does not
post any QPF. Temperatures similar to Sunday in the lower/mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level trough will swing east across the area and gradually
become negatively tilted over the forecast are. A swath of moisture
with the upper level trough will swing east across the area Tuesday
into Wednesday morning but there are differences in the models on
timing of the precipitation. The better chance appears it will hold
off until Wednesday across the northeast portion of the forecast
area.
Amplification of the upper level ridge over the western United
States will enhance the negatively tilted trough over eastern third
of the country by Thursday morning. As of right now, best dynamics
and moisture will develop east of the local area and expecting it to
remain dry for Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures should trend near normal through much of the period as
no real strong cold air outbreaks expected during this forecast
period. A much stronger cold wave looks like it could arrive by 240
hours trending temperatures colder into the holiday weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Cold front pushed south across the area overnight shifting winds
to a west and then northwest direction. Expecting some clouds to
move south across the area but remain VFR through the period.
Clearing will take place later this afternoon into the evening
hours. Winds will diminish as well overnight.
OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Will continue small craft advisory across the lake through the late
morning in the extreme west and until around 4 PM over the rest of
the lake today. May need to extend eastern portions later into the
evening hours.
Otherwise, winds diminish across the lake tonight into Saturday
morning but increase again out of the west during the afternoon
Saturday. Winds will gradually shift around to the southwest at 15
to 25 knots Sunday. The flow will gradually weaken to light
southwest by Monday night as a weak low pressure system scoots by to
the north of Lake Erie. Light winds prevail into Tuesday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...TK/Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
613 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions prevail across North Texas this morning with the
exception of some very patchy fog in some low lying areas.
Visibilities in these areas may locally drop to less than 1/2 mile
but the major airports should remain VFR. Light west winds will
become northerly later today as a cold front slides through the
region. While the front will come through precipitation
free...there is still quite a bit of moisture aloft which will
result in an increase in mid and high cloud cover through the day.
In addition...some light rain/sprinkles may be observed across our
far southern counties in the best moisture...although not much is
expected to reach the ground. Outside of some patchy fog this
morning...no major aviation concerns are expected through
Saturday.
Dunn
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally quiet conditions are expected through the entire
outlook with a couple of reinforcing shots of cooler air this
weekend and next week. Late next week, it is possible that a more
formidable cold front will make its way southward through North
and Central TX.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Surface analysis this morning showed a precipitation-free cold
front was continuing to progress southward through southern KS and
the OK/TX panhandles. A little closer to home, 11-3.9 micron
satellite imagery in conjunction with RAP mesoanalysis revealed
that low level moisture was slowly creeping towards the north and
northeast. Dewpoint depressions out across western zones are
generally in the 1-2 degree range and with the possibility that
some low level moisture may at some point later this morning be
juxtaposed with this nearly saturated airmass, I`ve included a
mention of patchy fog. The threat for widespread dense fog will be
monitored through the morning hours, but this should at be
limited to areas that are sheltered and/or near bodies of water. I
included a mention of patchy fog along the Red River where recent
trends in the HRRR suggest that some reduced visibilities will be
possible as well.
In addition to the possibility for patchy fog, subtle isentropic
ascent along the 310K (around 650mb) theta surface likely explains
the elevated and weak nature of returns on radar down across
southeast zones. With this convection being very high based, I`ll
carry a 10 PoP with a mention of sprinkles for the morning hours
mainly for southeast counties. Otherwise, skies should range from
partly to mostly sunny across much of North and Central TX with
high temperatures generally in the 70s.
The cold front should slide through without much fanfare this
evening and into Saturday morning given the shallow moisture in
place right now. I will carry a mention of isolated sprinkles
across Central TX as additional weak isentropic ascent along the
300-310K theta surfaces continues. The HRRR and to some degree the
4km NAM advertise some weak elevated convection here. There is
some doubt as to the sustenance of the moisture from the
southwest after daytime mixing. If this moisture remains and is
not mixed out, it`s possible that some low end rain chances may be
needed for tonight, especially since this is the most likely area
where moisture may be a tad deeper. In the wake of the front,
temperatures should fall into the upper 40s across northwest
counties to 50s elsewhere.
On Saturday, the front should stall out somewhere across Central
TX before it becomes ill-defined. As high pressure builds to the
east, winds just above the surface should gradually turn towards
the east and eventually become the southeast. While ascent will
be weak, there appears to be enough shallow low level moisture
along the elevated frontal surface. This combined with
condensation pressure deficits on the order of 10mb should
support some low/mid cloud cover on Saturday. The best ascent
appears to be out west, and I`ll lean on some of the more
aggressive model guidance with regards to cooler Max T`s and cloud
cover. Right now, it doesn`t appear the moisture is sufficient for
PoPs and I`ll keep the inherited dry forecast for this weekend
going.
Temperatures on Sunday will moderate as breezy south winds return
as the pesky upper low out to the west is finally enveloped back
into the main flow aloft. There is a slight southwesterly
component to the winds out across western zones and it`s possible
that current Max T`s on Sunday are a little too cool. For now,
I`ve stayed close to the previous forecast given that weak low
level ascent may still produce some lingering low/mid level
clouds. We will examine this a bit closer over the next several
days, but similar to Saturday it appears that Sunday will be dry.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...
Monday through Tuesday---precipitation-free conditions should
continue as the upper air pattern remains very active to the north
of our region. A series of shortwave troughs will send a couple
of cold fronts southward towards North and Central TX. The first
will arrive on Monday afternoon. Similar to the weekend, low level
moisture looks too shallow to support precipitation and at this
time on Monday, it may only support a few clouds. High
temperatures will continue to moderate on Monday given the
southwest winds ahead of the front. High temperatures for areas
just south of the front should warm into the mid 70s to perhaps
upper 70s. Tuesday should feature lower temperatures as weak cool
advection continues through the day. It is possible that if the
front is very shallow, post-frontal mixing could allow
temperatures to stay warmer than advertised. For now, I`ll side
with some of the cooler guidance and adjust if necessary later.
For Wednesday and beyond---Models diverge somewhat with regards to
low level moisture and thus rain chances. Most models show a quick
return of shallow moisture northward as a stout upper low
translates eastward through the Northern Plains. The GFS is the
most bullish and lifts a large (though shallow) amount of low
level moisture northward ahead of a stout cold front. The
ECMWF/Canadian are a bit more conservative, but also shows a
moist tongue lifting northward ahead of this boundary. For now,
I`ll compromise with just some low end rain chances across eastern
zones on Thursday as the GFS appears to be the aggressive outlier with
the moisture return, especially since it pushes a fair amount of
dry air southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of rain
chances, most long range models show a substantial cool down in
the extended portion of the forecast.
24-Bain
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 52 67 52 71 / 5 10 10 5 10
Waco 73 53 70 53 72 / 5 10 10 10 10
Paris 74 48 65 45 68 / 5 10 5 5 10
Denton 75 48 65 51 71 / 5 10 10 5 10
McKinney 74 50 65 50 69 / 5 10 10 5 10
Dallas 74 53 68 52 72 / 5 10 10 5 10
Terrell 75 52 67 50 71 / 5 10 5 5 10
Corsicana 73 54 69 51 72 / 10 10 5 5 10
Temple 73 54 68 53 72 / 10 10 5 10 10
Mineral Wells 71 48 65 51 71 / 5 10 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
755 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016
Sent an update to substantially increase cloud cover thru this
eve. IR satl shows a wide swath of thick cirrostratus over Nrn
Neb. The RAP has this handled well and used it to progressively
drop this shield of clouds S thru the fcst area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016
Main concern will be low temperatures Saturday morning.
We will be under an upper level ridge for the short term forecast as
a trough will be located far south into the far southern Plains,
well south to ever directly affect our weather. We will continue to
have some cold air advection today after a cold front moved through
yesterday. I ended up going with BCCONSRAW for highs today and
cooler MET guidance tonight with a surface ridge entering. This
should be a hard freeze for most places well down into the 20s as
the sky clears and wind will be light. The ambient environment will
continue to be dry.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016
Dry conditions remain in the forecast for the upcoming weekend, with
little overall change in the models. At 12Z Saturday, upper level
high pressure is expected to be centered over the Central Plains,
while low pressure sits over southern NM/far west TX. Looks to be a
gradual eastward shift to the pattern through the weekend, with the
low pressure system sliding up into southeastern KS before moving
off toward the midwest. Another shortwave disturbance helping push
the pattern east slides across the norther CONUS, ushering in
northwesterly flow back to the area Sunday night. Even with
disturbances in the area, models are in good agreement keeping
things dry. At the surface, south-southwesterly winds are forecast
for Saturday, as the CWA sits between high pressure centered over
the midwest region and a trough of low pressure over the High
Plains. May be a bit breezy for some locations, mainly northwestern
portions of the CWA, with speeds near 15 MPH possible and higher
gusts. The above mentioned shortwave disturbance moving to the north
of the area through Sunday will push a frontal boundary through the
area, bringing in northwesterly winds. Expecting a warming trend
through the weekend, with highs on Saturday a few degrees either
side of 60, and Sunday a touch warmer, with that frontal boundary
allowing for better mixing potential into slightly warmer air aloft.
Highs on Sunday are forecast to reach the mid 60s for most.
Looking ahead to the next work week, dry conditions remain at least
through the first half. The upper level northwesterly flow that
returns Sunday night is thanks to ridging building over the western
CONUS, and models are in good agreement showing that to be the main
player for our area through the middle of the week. The main ridge
axis is gradually pushed east by a stronger system moving
toward/onto the west coast, with the main axis passing through the
region on Wednesday. Normal highs for this time of year are in the
lower/mid 50s, and above normal highs are forecast each day Mon-Wed.
Lower-mid 60s for Monday, mid-upper 60s for Tue-Wed. Pretty nice
days currently expected for mid-November.
Late Wed night and into Thursday, the system to the west is expected
to have pushed east through most of the Rockies, and is knocking on
the doorstep of the Plains by 00Z Friday. Some model differences
remain with the evolution of this system, a few days ago there was
some hint that this would bring a decent chance of precip to the
area, current runs aren`t quite as good. The 00Z GFS takes the well
organized upper low well north of the area over ND, keeping the CWA
precip free. The 00Z ECMWF also takes the brunt of the lift to our
north, but does swing a piece of energy far enough south to bring
some QPF to the area, so do have a 20 PoP in the forecast. Will see
how models trend in the coming days, but such a northern path to the
system would not bode well for precip chances for our area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016
VFR conditions will prevail as a surface high builds in behind a
cold front. Any mid to high level cloudiness in the area will
decrease with time as it moves south.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Heinlein
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1024 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push south across the region this morning.
A dry and cool airmass will settle into the area behind the front
for the first part of the weekend. The dry conditions will then
continue into early next week as temperatures begin to slowly
moderate.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some mid clouds associated with a digging H5 trof have dropped
into the region.
As H8 CAA increases this afternoon, expect some scattered to
broken sc to develop, especially across eastern portions of the
fa.
Still expect high the 50s today, ranging from the lower 50s in
the north to the mid to upper 50s in the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build in from the northwest tonight
through Saturday and then drift slowly off to our southeast
through the day on Sunday. A little bit of low level moisture will
linger into tonight, but as we lose the diurnal heating, expect
skies to become mostly clear tonight. The dry conditions and
mainly clear skies will then persist through the rest of the
weekend.
The core of the coldest air will be centered just off to our east
Saturday morning. This will result in lows tonight in the upper
20s to lower 30s with highs on Saturday only in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Lows Saturday night will again be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. We will then start to get into a little bit of return
flow on the back side of the high on Sunday, with readings
moderating back into the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The first part of the extended will feature an upper level ridge
building southeast into the lower Great Lakes while an upper level
low closes off somewhere near the middle Mississippi Valley. For
now, it appears that some clouds may increase in coverage Sunday
night into Monday as the low moves east/northeast along and south of
the Ohio River.
Upper level pattern transitions to a northwest orientation Tuesday
and Wednesday as a large scale mid level ridge builds northward into
the northern Plains. Some embedded s/wv energy may work its way
through our region during this period. Given overall dry pattern,
mainly clouds are expected, although the ECMWF/GFS hint at a small
threat of a few showers. Timing and coverage are inconsistent
between the two major synoptic models, so have kept the forecast
dry for now.
By the end of next week, large scale mid level ridge will traverse
east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large scale troughing and
a cool down may then occur by next weekend.
As for temperatures, fairly seasonable with highs in the 50s through
mid week, with warmer temperatures in the 60s possible as we head
into Thursday and moreso by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface cold front is now approaching KDAY with winds slowly
turning around from the north. Behind the cold front winds will
slowly increase as the pressure gradient tightens and CAA
strengthens. GFS, NAM, and RAP forecast soundings continue to show
gusts of 20 kts possible via momentum transfer so have kept TAFs
trended this way. This evenings winds will slowly weaken as high
pressure approaches the area from the northwest. During the day
Saturday winds will be near calm as surface high pressure settles
directly overhead.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected at this time.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Haines
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
604 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will move through the forecast area
early tonight. Little moisture will be associated with the front.
The pressure ridge behind the front will extend through the Ohio
River Valley Saturday. Weak low pressure will develop just off the
Georgia and South Carolina coast Sunday. The low will lift
northeast of the area Monday. Most of the moisture associated with
the low will stay east of the forecast area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A fire danger statement remains in effect due to burning ban over
portions of the area. Temperatures today will be around 5 degrees
above climatology with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
Tonight...The cold front will push south of the forecast area
early tonight. Air quality relative to smoke should improve with
the wind trajectory behind the front. Wind will be stronger over
area lakes tonight because of increased mixing associated with the
relatively warm water temperatures. The HRRR suggested gusts
around 25 knots. Believe a Lake Wind Advisory is needed. The wind
should help hold up temperatures tonight despite the cold
advection. The temperature guidance was consistent with lows in
the lower 40s north to upper 40s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
It will be dry behind the cold front Saturday and Saturday night.
The NAM BUFKIT momentum transfer tool suggested breezy conditions
Saturday especially on area lakes where increased mixing will
occur associated with the relatively warm water early. Believe
gusts near 25 knots will occur supporting a continued Lake Wind
Advisory. Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature
forecast. Expect highs near 60 north to the middle 60s south. The
NAM and GFS MOS indicate relative humidity higher compared to the
previous day. Expect minimum humidity 30 to 35 percent.
There will be diminished wind Saturday night with the surface
pressure ridge closer to the area. Strong net radiational cooling
will occur but it may be limited by some mid-level cloudiness late
ahead of the next approaching shortwave trough. The temperature
guidance has trended upward in south and central sections but has
been more consistent in the north. Followed a guidance consensus and
forecasted lows near 30 north and in the middle and upper 30s
central and south. Confidence was high enough to post a freeze watch
in the north.
The models develop low pressure off the Georgia and South Carolina
coast Sunday in response to the upper trough moving into the area.
This low is depicted lifting farther northeast of the area Monday.
Deepest moisture and lift may occur late Sunday and Monday morning.
The models display a tight moisture gradient across the area with
deepest moisture east. The gradient diminishes forecast confidence.
Followed the lower pop guidance based on previous runs indicating
less moisture and the initial very dry environment. Followed the
guidance for the temperature forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF indicate a dry pattern during the medium-range
period. The models show ridging over the area in the wake of low
pressure moving toward the Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday. A cold
front will little moisture is forecast Wednesday. High pressure
behind this front should dominate Thursday and Friday. The GFS and
ECMWF MOS plus GFS ensemble mean support pops less than or equal
to 20 percent through the period. The MOS has near or a little
above temperatures during the period.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fair weather with no precipitation due to a very dry atmosphere in
place. A dry front will move through the area late tonight. The
main issue will be smoke from wildfires burning in the mountains
of NC, SC, and GA reducing visibilities in the near term.
Observations indicate surface visibilities have improved some, and
are generally ranging from 3 to 5 miles. Diurnal heating and an
increased mixing layer this afternoon would provide expectations
of gradually improving visibilities during the afternoon. Winds
shifting to NE and increasing behind the front late tonight also
expected to lead to improved visibilities late tonight. Before the
winds pick up behind the front late tonight, a period of light and
variable winds early this evening could lead to some reduced
visibilities possibly returning as an inversion might set up.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some possibilities of MVFR CIGS and
light precipitation Sunday night/Monday morning. By mid week,
reduced visibilities in smoke could return.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Danger will remain elevated. Wind and relative humidity
values support an increased risk of wildfire. A fire danger
statement has been issued in coordination with the USDA Forest
Service and SC Forestry Commission. The SC Forestry Commission has
also expanded the burn ban to include the western Midlands and
Lexington/Richland counties.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM EST
Saturday for GAZ040-063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM EST
Saturday for SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning
for SCZ015-016-020>022.
&&
$$