Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/10/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
955 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure from the west will build toward the region overnight
then cross the region on Thursday. Another cold front will approach
Thursday night and cross the area Friday morning followed by gusty
winds.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
945 PM Update: There appears to be a narrow band of flurries
and/or sprinkles ovr far NERN Aroostook county, but elsewhere
sprinkles and isold shwrs have ended with the latest 10/02z HRRR
model run keeping the region dry going into the late ngt hrs.
We again imported mid eve sfc obs for the latest fcst hrly trends
of temps and dwpts into the late ngt, with no chgs planned attm
with fcst ovrngt lows posted at 6-7am Thu.
Orgnl Disc: The cold front which has been bringing showers to
some northeastern areas today will slide southeast and offshore
tonight. High pressure centered to our southwest will briefly
ridge across the area later tonight into Thursday bringing dry
weather. The surface ridge will slide to our south Thursday
afternoon allowing a southwesterly breeze to increase during the
afternoon. Downeast areas will be sunny to partly cloudy on
Thursday while northern areas remain mostly cloudy. A second
stronger cold front will begin to approach late Thursday and may
bring some light spotty showers to far northern areas at the end
of the day Thursday. Otherwise, Thursday is expected to remain
dry.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday night a strong cold front will approach Northern Maine
and quickly push through the state Friday morning. Limited
moisture and rainfall expected with this front, with up to .10"
across Northern Maine, virtually nothing expected for Downeast
coast. The biggest sensible weather impact with the front will be
strong blustery northwest winds behind the front during the day on
Friday. The windchill factor will make it feel much colder on
Veteran`s day with temperatures not getting above freezing. Winds
will remain gusty Friday night as the pressure gradient tightens
and a secondary 500mb vort max moves over the region. This will
create a wintry feel in the air as wind chill values drop into
lower 20s north and upper 20s near the coast. A few snow showers
or flurries could also be possible across the Central Highlands
and Northwoods. Nice day on Saturday as surface ridging builds in,
bringing mostly clear skies and moderating temperates on a breezy
west wind.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Moderating trend continues into next week as a strong Southeast
500mb ridge keeps the cold Canadian air to the north Sunday into
Monday next week. This will bring above average temperatures to
the region and dry conditions. Forecast confidence begins to
decrease Tuesday into Wednesday...as long term model camps begin
to diverge on the development of an eastern seaboard coastal low.
The largest King Tide in 60 years is expected to occur next
Tuesday, so we are watching any potential strong onshore flow or
large waves for coastal impacts closely. The ECMWF is still
hinting at a possible coastal low, but very low confidence and
should occur after the highest tide days of this month.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for this period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions are expected to improve to VFR
SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to return to VFR across the
area by this evening. VFR conditions are then expected tonight
through Thursday, possibly lowering to MVFR across the far north
ahead of a cold front late Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas tonight into Thursday morning will be
below SCA. Winds may approach 25 kt in gusts Thursday afternoon
as a southwesterly wind increases.
SHORT TERM: Southwesterly winds will continue to increase Thursday
night with waves and winds most likely reaching SCA conditions. A
cold front will push through the coastal waters by midday on
Friday bringing gusty northwest winds. SCA conditions are likely
to continue through Friday night, with winds beginning to subside
by Saturday morning.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Dumont
Long Term...Dumont
Aviation...VJN/Dumont
Marine...VJN/Dumont
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
917 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough of colder air aloft will maintain shallow, non-
precipitating clouds through the first half of tonight. Clearing
will spread southeast across the state after midnight. Cooler
conditions are in store for the second half of the week and
lasting into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Widespread and relatively shallow bkn-ovc strato cu lingered
this evening as a thermal trough centered around 850 mb was
sliding SE across the state.
Higher cloud shield has peeled off to the SE of the CWA...leaving
the non-precipitating cloud deck. A band of dry (sub-0.5 inch)
PWAT air will become centered over the region by
daybreak...promoting gradual clearing for the rest of the
overnight hours.
Temps look on track to dip to between 30-32F across the northern
mountains...and in the mid to upper 30s over the remainder of the
region. This concurs well with the latest 00Z HRRR run.
NW winds of 5-10kts will back to the west and lighten up a few kts
across the western half of the state late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Weak ridging at surface between the retreating low and the
approaching cold front. The flow supports a fairly good warm up.
The 850 hPa temperatures rebound fast Thursday with the strong
warm advection ahead of the front. Should be warm than normal
mid-November afternoon.
No rain and a nice pre-cold frontal day.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Active northwesterly flow pattern along the U.S. Canadian border
is forecast to persist through much of the period. This will act
to suppress the recent persistent upper ridging and lead to
general troffiness over the eastern third of the conus. Upper
ridge may try to rebuild northward over the weekend.
A strong trof with a deepening low east of James Bay and an
associated strong cold front will sweep southeast toward PA late
Thursday passing across the state Friday. Notably colder air is
forecast to move in behind this front and it retrogrades the upper
level trough, at least temporarily, back across PA. Both GFS and
ECMWF show thicknesses down to at least 522. Hence temperatures
over the weekend will be 15 to 20 degrees colder than near the
start of the week. Also, it is cold enough with a brisk north to
northwest flow across the lakes Friday night and Saturday for a
chance of mix rain and snow showers across the northern tier and
western mountains with snow more likely at higher elevations and
overnight. Pops are in the 20s and 30s for seven days out.
Despite the more active jet pattern, chances for significant
precipitation look to remain limited. Forcing short waves are
fast moving and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is cut off with
surface high pressure sitting over the southeast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak trough will push to the southeast tonight. Shallow stratocu
will gradually erode over the central mountains and southeast
the first half of tonight, while cig restrictions persist over the
northern and western higher terrain (KBFD-KJST) through the
overnight hours. NW winds will gradually lessen as the night wears
on, but should be enough to preclude any fog formation.
Thursday looks like VFR conditions areawide, with a breezy
westerly wind.
Outlook...
Thu...Mainly VFR. Breezy westerly wind.
Fri...Restrictions become likely in NW mtns in sct rain showers.
Still breezy out of the NW. LLWS likely (starting Thu night).
Fri Night...Restrictions diminishing NW half. Otherwise VFR.
Sat-Mon...Mainly VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...DeVoir/Lambert
Near Term...Grumm/Lambert
Short Term...Grumm
Long Term...Gartner
Aviation...RXR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
326 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
Continue to see some wind enhancement on the lee of the Coteau with
Peever gusting in the 40 to 50 mph range most of the overnight.
Expect this trend to slowly decrease over the next few hours as RAP
shows 925mb winds decreasing up through 12Z. Will have to once again
watch for downslope winds early Saturday morning as favorable setup
once again materializes. 925mb winds are progged to be around 40
knots this time around, so maybe a bit more intense than what we are
seeing this morning. Increased wind speeds in the typical areas
early Saturday morning, which will have to be preserved in following
forecasts to maintain consistency and not have SuperBlend overwrite
it.
As for the rest of the forecast, things remain dry and mild overall.
For today, will see slightly cooler air moving in behind a departing
cold front. Although, highs will remain in the 60s for most areas
which is still well above normal for this time of year. North to
northwest winds will also be on the breezy/gusty side and have
increased winds a bit above SuperBlend. Tonight, surface high
pressure settles in over the region with clear skies and light
winds. Another scenario here where SuperBlend is probably too warm
with lows, so have decreased a few degrees more towards the coldest
raw guidance numbers. Did not decrease as much for I-29 areas and
points east as winds may stay up just a tad in this area.
Looking towards Saturday, looks like another round of
mild/dry/breezy conditions as upper ridge builds in and surface
pressure gradient increases as high pressure departs to the south.
925/850mb temps once again surge into the teens Celsius, but look to
be a tad cooler than what we saw on Wednesday. Nonetheless, still
looking at highs in the 60s for many areas along and west of the
James River. There was a collaborative effort to increase highs,
bump up wind speeds, and lower dewpoints in what appears to be a
typical setup when these weather elements trend in these directions
away from SuperBlend. So, once again, will have to preserve these
changes in future forecasts in order to prevent SuperBlend from
overwriting these changes.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
Upper level ridging will give way to a passing trough on Sunday.
Progged height falls will still keep temps in the above average
category with highs in the 50s to lower 60s expected through
Thursday. The pattern shifts at the end of the extended when a deep
upper low and stacked sfc low move into the Plains. Both the ECMWF
and the GFS have wraparound precip moving into the Dakotas on
Thursday night. Temps will fall considerably behind this low, making
it cold enough to support snow with gusty winds. As always, there
could be changes to the current forecast since we`re talking about 7
days out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light south winds
increase on Thursday after switching to the northwest.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Dorn
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
325 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
It will become windy today as southwest winds increase to 15 to 30
mph. Some gusts may reach 40 mph at times this afternoon. Otherwise,
look for mostly sunny skies today and mild temperatures that will
push into the lower 60s in many areas. Tonight a cold front will
push through from north to south ushering in much colder air. The
front will go through dry and result in highs holding around 50 on
Friday and Saturday. Lows Saturday morning will dip into the 20s. A
dry forecast is in place through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
Main concern in the short term pertains to strong winds today.
Thinking we will remain below Wind Advisory criteria, but it will be
windy. Southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph look likely with some gusts
that may eclipse the 40 mph mark. The experimental HRRR is
indicating some gusts this afternoon in the 40-45 mph range. Usually
though it is just a bit high so expecting gusts will likely top out
in the 35-40 mph range.
A cold front will sweep through Southwest Lower Michigan tonight
with an increase in cloud cover for a time. 925-850mb layer moisture
increases into the 80 pct range, but overall thinking deeper layer
moisture is too meager for precipitation. Therefore, have continued
the dry forecast.
Completely cold enough for lake generated clouds tonight in
northerly flow. Expecting some of this stratocumulus cloud will make
it into our area. There could be times of mostly cloudy skies late
tonight into Friday morning. However, normally a northerly flow
leads to less in the way of clouds given a flow off the higher
ground of Northern Lower and our distance from Northern Lake
Michigan and Lake Superior.
A cold night is on tap for Friday night as high pressure builds in
with 850mb temps that will be in the 0C to -3C range. Lows will be
in the 20s area wide. A mainly sunny and cool day is expected
Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
We continue to expect that a good portion of the long term will
remain dry with near to slightly above average temperatures.
There is a good chance that most locations will remain dry through
Tuesday. A fairly flat upper and sfc ridge will be in control of the
weather through Sunday. We will see milder air move in on Sunday
with a decent gradient after cool temperatures at the end of the
short term. A cold front will slip through the area on Monday,
however it will not have any significant moisture with it.
The first legitimate chance of rain will not come until likely the
Tue night/Wednesday. We will see a jet streak/short wave move in at
that time, ejecting from the N Pacific Upper Low. Some rain will try
to make it in with another cold front. This one will be weakening
also as it gets overcome by a strong upper ridge building over the
Plains in response to the Upper Low digging along the West Coast.
The northern branch of the upper jet remaining north of the area
will keep temps near to above average through most of next week for
Lower Michigan.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1258 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
Quiet, yet windy weather sums up the 06z terminal forecasts this
morning. Only a few high clouds are floating overhead early this
morning. We expect VFR conditions to persist through the forecast
period. Some lower cigs around 4k feet could float in at the end
of the period near a front that will move through.
Winds will be the main impact today. Winds from the SW will
increase by mid morning, and peaking this afternoon. Wind gusts up
to about 30 knots or so will be likely, then diminish gradually this
evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
Maintained the Small Craft Advisory for all marine zones and
extended it in time through 100am Saturday. Took a look at possibly
upgrading it to a Gale Warning as there will likely be a few Gale
gusts this afternoon and evening. Think the bulk of the time frame
though from Today through Tonight, Friday and into Friday night will
be SCA type winds in the 20-33 knot range. Winds today will be
southwesterly, but will become northwest tonight and north on
Friday. Bottom line it will be a rough time on Lake Michigan from
this morning into the early hours of Saturday morning.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016
A Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Maple River at Maple
Rapids through late tonight. The river continues a very slow fall.
Otherwise, there are no hydro concerns. Predominantly dry weather is
expected through the weekend.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Duke
SHORT TERM...Duke
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
528 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
Continue to see some wind enhancement on the lee of the Coteau with
Peever gusting in the 40 to 50 mph range most of the overnight.
Expect this trend to slowly decrease over the next few hours as RAP
shows 925mb winds decreasing up through 12Z. Will have to once again
watch for downslope winds early Saturday morning as favorable setup
once again materializes. 925mb winds are progged to be around 40
knots this time around, so maybe a bit more intense than what we are
seeing this morning. Increased wind speeds in the typical areas
early Saturday morning, which will have to be preserved in following
forecasts to maintain consistency and not have SuperBlend overwrite
it.
As for the rest of the forecast, things remain dry and mild overall.
For today, will see slightly cooler air moving in behind a departing
cold front. Although, highs will remain in the 60s for most areas
which is still well above normal for this time of year. North to
northwest winds will also be on the breezy/gusty side and have
increased winds a bit above SuperBlend. Tonight, surface high
pressure settles in over the region with clear skies and light
winds. Another scenario here where SuperBlend is probably too warm
with lows, so have decreased a few degrees more towards the coldest
raw guidance numbers. Did not decrease as much for I-29 areas and
points east as winds may stay up just a tad in this area.
Looking towards Saturday, looks like another round of
mild/dry/breezy conditions as upper ridge builds in and surface
pressure gradient increases as high pressure departs to the south.
925/850mb temps once again surge into the teens Celsius, but look to
be a tad cooler than what we saw on Wednesday. Nonetheless, still
looking at highs in the 60s for many areas along and west of the
James River. There was a collaborative effort to increase highs,
bump up wind speeds, and lower dewpoints in what appears to be a
typical setup when these weather elements trend in these directions
away from SuperBlend. So, once again, will have to preserve these
changes in future forecasts in order to prevent SuperBlend from
overwriting these changes.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
Upper level ridging will give way to a passing trough on Sunday.
Progged height falls will still keep temps in the above average
category with highs in the 50s to lower 60s expected through
Thursday. The pattern shifts at the end of the extended when a deep
upper low and stacked sfc low move into the Plains. Both the ECMWF
and the GFS have wraparound precip moving into the Dakotas on
Thursday night. Temps will fall considerably behind this low, making
it cold enough to support snow with gusty winds. As always, there
could be changes to the current forecast since we`re talking about 7
days out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
shift to the northwest today and become gusty as a weak front
moves through.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1011 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along with cooler and drier air will continue
building into the region today and Friday. Another cold front will
cross the region Friday night with limited moisture and cloudiness
expected. High pressure returning to the region Saturday and
Sunday will usher in the coolest air of the season thus far.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A northwest flow will prevail aloft as the region remains
positioned between a closed upper low over the western Atlantic
and a ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a weak
ridge axis at the surface will pass south of the area, allowing
the low-level flow to shift more westerly by late in the day.
Strong subsidence and a very dry airmass will keep skies sunny
through the afternoon. Temperatures should generally warm into the
mid and upper 60s, although a few highs right around 70 are
possible in the CSRA. Trajectories could become a bit more
favorable for some of the smoke from wildfires in the mountains of
NC, SC, TN and GA to make it into the area, but the HRRR shows
less in the way of smoke concentration compared to yesterday.
Tonight, clear skies and light winds will allow for optimal
radiational cooling conditions with overnight lows in the upper
30s to lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will weaken early Friday as a cold front approaches
from the north. Front will again be moisture starved and will
cross the area late Friday into Friday night. With fropa much
cooler and drier air will again overtake the region with the
coolest temperatures of the season for Saturday and Saturday
night. High temperatures on Saturday will generally be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will slowly subside Saturday night
and with clear skies expect excellent radiational cooling
conditions. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the lower
to middle 30s with patchy frost becoming increasing likely across
the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will be in control of the area Sunday with the
remains of the cold front just south of the forecast area. Sunday
night into Monday an upper level low will form over the central MS
Valley with some potential for showers late Sunday into Sunday
night mainly along the SC Coast. Have increased pops in the
eastern Midlands and southern CSRA...however have kept pops below
slight chance at this time due to model uncertainty. Another cold
front will cross the area Monday night into Tuesday with the main
dynamics north of the area. Have remained with a dry forecast
through the remainder of the period as the pattern will become
more progressive. Temperatures will begin the period well below
normal...then moderate to near normal from early next week through
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will prevail, with clear skies and relatively light
winds expected through 12Z Friday. Thus, VFR conditions expected
to continue.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front will move into the
forecast area Friday/Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
There will be an increased risk of fire danger today and Friday.
Although winds will be fairly light, minimum relative humidities
in the upper teens and 20s coupled with our prolonged period of
dry weather will lead to an increased risk for fire ignition
across the Midlands and CSRA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
640 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
It will become windy today as southwest winds increase to 15 to 30
mph. Some gusts may reach 40 mph at times this afternoon. Otherwise,
look for mostly sunny skies today and mild temperatures that will
push into the lower 60s in many areas. Tonight a cold front will
push through from north to south ushering in much colder air. The
front will go through dry and result in highs holding around 50 on
Friday and Saturday. Lows Saturday morning will dip into the 20s. A
dry forecast is in place through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
Main concern in the short term pertains to strong winds today.
Thinking we will remain below Wind Advisory criteria, but it will be
windy. Southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph look likely with some gusts
that may eclipse the 40 mph mark. The experimental HRRR is
indicating some gusts this afternoon in the 40-45 mph range. Usually
though it is just a bit high so expecting gusts will likely top out
in the 35-40 mph range.
A cold front will sweep through Southwest Lower Michigan tonight
with an increase in cloud cover for a time. 925-850mb layer moisture
increases into the 80 pct range, but overall thinking deeper layer
moisture is too meager for precipitation. Therefore, have continued
the dry forecast.
Completely cold enough for lake generated clouds tonight in
northerly flow. Expecting some of this stratocumulus cloud will make
it into our area. There could be times of mostly cloudy skies late
tonight into Friday morning. However, normally a northerly flow
leads to less in the way of clouds given a flow off the higher
ground of Northern Lower and our distance from Northern Lake
Michigan and Lake Superior.
A cold night is on tap for Friday night as high pressure builds in
with 850mb temps that will be in the 0C to -3C range. Lows will be
in the 20s area wide. A mainly sunny and cool day is expected
Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
We continue to expect that a good portion of the long term will
remain dry with near to slightly above average temperatures.
There is a good chance that most locations will remain dry through
Tuesday. A fairly flat upper and sfc ridge will be in control of the
weather through Sunday. We will see milder air move in on Sunday
with a decent gradient after cool temperatures at the end of the
short term. A cold front will slip through the area on Monday,
however it will not have any significant moisture with it.
The first legitimate chance of rain will not come until likely the
Tue night/Wednesday. We will see a jet streak/short wave move in at
that time, ejecting from the N Pacific Upper Low. Some rain will try
to make it in with another cold front. This one will be weakening
also as it gets overcome by a strong upper ridge building over the
Plains in response to the Upper Low digging along the West Coast.
The northern branch of the upper jet remaining north of the area
will keep temps near to above average through most of next week for
Lower Michigan.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 640 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
The main story the next 24 hours will be the wind today. Southwest
winds of 15 to 30 knots are expected today with some gusts up
towards 35 knots. The wind should subside quite a bit this evening
and especially overnight.
Skies will be mainly clear today, but look for some VFR broken to
overcast ceilings showing up tonight with bases around 3500ft.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
Maintained the Small Craft Advisory for all marine zones and
extended it in time through 100am Saturday. Took a look at possibly
upgrading it to a Gale Warning as there will likely be a few Gale
gusts this afternoon and evening. Think the bulk of the time frame
though from Today through Tonight, Friday and into Friday night will
be SCA type winds in the 20-33 knot range. Winds today will be
southwesterly, but will become northwest tonight and north on
Friday. Bottom line it will be a rough time on Lake Michigan from
this morning into the early hours of Saturday morning.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016
A Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Maple River at Maple
Rapids through late tonight. The river continues a very slow fall.
Otherwise, there are no hydro concerns. Predominantly dry weather is
expected through the weekend.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Duke
SHORT TERM...Duke
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
535 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 500 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
A cold front at 3 am was just entering NW MN. Southwest winds ahead
of the front have kept temperatures very mild, with most locations
remaining in the 40s, with areas immediately downwind of the Buffalo
Ridge, like Canby and Marshall staying in the 50s. For many, the
temperatures we are seeing to start the day are right at our average
highs. In fact, if we were to keep the 925-850mb temps we have over
us to start the day (14-18C), we would be talking about highs in the
70s for much of our MN CWA with record highs likely. Unfortunately,
the cold front will be moving through pretty quick, with it pretty
much clear of the entire MPX by around 18z. Still, given our warm
start, we will have no problem warming back into the 60s outside of
central MN today, with highs again back in that 10-20 degrees above
normal range. We will see breezy NW behind the front, but nothing
headline worthy, with gusts to around 30 mph in western MN and 20
mph in western WI.
Tonight, CAA from the day will continue right through the night as
high pressure builds into the Dakotas. The only thing to watch for
tonight is the potential for stratus to come down out of northeast
MN. This cloud cover would be associated with a lobe of vorticity
rotating around a closed low over northern Quebec. This looks to be
a potential issue for more Friday morning though for eastern MN and
WI.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 500 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
The dry and mild conditions that have been with us since the start
of the month will continue through the long term period. As
mentioned above, cooler air behind the front will drop
temperatures back tomorrow - with highs likely remaining in the
the mid to upper 40s across MN/WI. As cool as this may feel, these
forecast highs are still a few degrees above climate normal highs,
which now sit between 43-45 across the forecast area. At KMSP
(and many other locations in MN/WI), the first nine days of
November have been free from precipitation and commonly in the 60s
and 70s for highs. In fact at KMSP, the observed high temperature
of 59 on Tuesday was the only day this month where the high
remained in the 50s. St. Cloud, Eau Claire, Duluth, Rochester and
the Twin Cities are all running between 10 and 15 degrees warmer
than normal so far this month. There are couple frontal boundaries
that are expected to pass through the area over the next week,
but those only offer very small chances for light rain showers.
The first is a cold front that comes through Sunday night, but the
forecast soundings are really dry when that front works across
MN/WI. Warm advection and isentropic lift could produce a band of
showers across the Dakotas and Minnesota on Tuesday - again rain
would be light.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2016
Main issue in these TAFs is timing a cold front and its associated
wind shift through. Did slow the shift over to NW winds an hour or
two, but otherwise, 12z TAfs were not changed much from what we
had. This front is dry, so beside no rain, it will lack cloud
cover as well. Clouds do not look to become a problem until late
Thursday night as a bank of stratus will be likely approaching
eastern MN/western WI from the arrowhead. The end of the HRRR
shows this stratus down to DLH by 3z. Soundings down here are
pretty dry, so kept coverage at SCT, but this is something that
will need to be monitored during the day.
KMSP...High confidence in the wind forecast this period. Based on
NAM forecast soundings, we could start see cigs as early as 8z,
but it questionable how much will be left of the NE MN stratus as
it tries to work into MN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kt.
Sun...VFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kt.
Mon...VFR. Wind NW 5 kt.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
214 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build into the region through
Friday. A cold front with limited moisture will cross the region
Friday night, ushering in dry and much cooler weather for the
weekend. A coastal low and an upper level disturbance could bring
showers to the area Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A northwest flow will prevail aloft as the region remains
positioned between a closed upper low over the western Atlantic
and a ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South.
Meanwhile, strong high pressure at the surface will build into the
region from the Southern Plains.
Excellent radiational cooling conditions are expected tonight
given clear skies, light winds and dry surface conditions.
Temperatures are forecast to be on the cool side of guidance
because of this, with lows generally ranging from 35-40 degrees,
although a few cooler temperatures are possible in low-
lying and well sheltered locations. Given the dry surface
conditions, the potential for frost should be very limited in most
locations and have not added mention to the forecast.
Based on the latest HRRR, smoke from wildfires burning in the
mountains of NC, SC, GA and TN will begin to spread across the
area from the northwest late tonight. Some visibility restrictions
are possible prior to sunrise Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong surface Canadian high pressure system will descend
across the Upper Midwest on Friday and into the Eastern U.S. this
weekend. Portions of the Midlands and CSRA may experience smoke
from Southern Appalachian wildfires on Friday. This surface high
will bring the coldest air into the Southeast U.S. since March
with widespread frost possible Saturday Night into Sunday Morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak upper trough is forecast to slowly drift toward the
Southeast U.S early next week. This trough may draw moisture into
the CSRA and Midlands late Sunday Night into Monday which could
end a five week rainless streak.
Weak upper troughing persists into the middle of next week. There
may be a chance of showers across portions of the Midlands and CSRA
Tuesday and Wednesday, however the probabilities may be too low to
show up in the extended forecast. Temperatures will warm to slightly
above climo for mid November. High pressure aloft builds in from the
west on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will prevail, with clear skies and relatively light
winds expected through 18Z Friday. Smoke from wildfires over the
mountains of NC, SC, GA and TN are forecast by the HRRR to spread
over the terminals late tonight and increase in concentration on
Friday. While it is difficult to predict this far out where the
smoke plume will have the greatest impacts and to what extent
those impacts will be, we`ve added mention of smoke (FU) into the
TAFs beginning at 09Z, then indicate MVFR visibilities possible
after 12Z. Expect additional adjustments as trends become better
established.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Smoke could impact the TAF sites into
Friday evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire Danger will remain elevated through Friday. Although winds
will be fairly light, minimum relative humidity values on Friday
in the upper teens to mid 20s, combined with a lack of recent
rainfall/dry fuels will lead to an increased risk for wildfire
ignition across the Midlands and CSRA. A fire danger statement has
been issued in coordination with the USDA Forest Service and SC
Forestry Commission.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
552 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A westerly flow of mild air will work eastward into PA today.
Much colder air will work into the area by Saturday, as a strong
cold front moves southward from the northern plains early on
Friday, and a large high builds southward from Canada.
Temperatures will quickly moderate again early next week, as the
high moves southeast of the area, and winds shift to the
southwest.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Sans the winds quite a nice bright sunny day over most of the
region. Still some pesky clouds in the northwest mountains.
The strong warm advection and an inversion developing after sunset
could decouple the region for awhile. Guidance implies a weak cold
front/drier air comes in overnight. This could trigger some
showers in the northwest mountains. HRRR shows nothing before
0700 UTC and really weak at that.
Most of southern and eastern areas will have a quiet overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Second surge of cold air is due in 12 to 18Z on Friday. This would
usher in the colder air aloft. The GEFS implies -2C in NW by 15Z
on Friday. So introduced snow/rain showers 12-18Z then snow
showers in NW areas then into southwest mountains.
Gusty winds behind the cold front will make it feel like mid-
November. All the prolonged warm weather may have left us
sensitive to normal so it will feel chilly to most of us.
Winds abate Friday evening and it may well be the coldest night of
the season to date.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Colder temperatures expected for the weekend behind Friday`s cold
front as 850MB temps fall about 15C (from around 10C to -5C) in
the 24-hours ending late eve Friday. 1032MB high over Ohio Valley
will gradually fill as it edges eastward through Sat night. CAA
will keep temps in the 40s on Sat, and sandwich that between two
chilly nights.
As the surface high moves southeast of the area by Sunday, a
strong westerly flow of air will form in lower-levels, while an
upper wave pulls warmer air aloft up along the Appalachians -
resulting in temperatures slightly above normal again.
This weak upper low lifts through Mon night into Tue, bringing low
chances for light showers. A second wave/weak trough arrives
midweek, keeping mention of chance light showers around. Due to
weaker nature of these systems, model spread on details remains on
the higher side. But it looks like overall temps remain on the
mild side for mid- November.
Ridge builds in for late week ahead of a more potent system
lifting out of the Rockies into the Great Lakes. Through Fri,
impacts of this will remain off to our west, but colder and
potentially showery weather looks like a good bet for next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A strong flow westerly aloft will overspread the region tonight ahead
of an approaching cold front. This will result in LLWS,
developing early this evening across Northwest Pa and by around
midnight across Southeast Pa. Passage of the cold front will mix
gusty winds to the surface and end the LLWS threat Friday morning.
Current model data suggests this frontal passage will occur
across Northwest Pa just before dawn and over Southeast Pa by late
morning.
Model soundings indicate a period of MVFR cigs are likely late
tonight and early Friday morning at KBFD/KJST and even perhaps at
KUNV/KAOO. Downsloping flow should ensure VFR conditions
elsewhere.
Gusty NW winds will buffet the entire region Friday behind the
cold front. Bufkit soundings support frequent gusts to around
25kts.
Winds abate Friday night. Mainly VFR.
Outlook...
Fri...Restrictions in NW mountains in scattered rain/snow showers.
Breezy NW winds developing post-cold front. LLWS potential.
Fri Night...Restrictions in NW diminish. Elsewhere VFR.
Sat-Mon...Mainly VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Martin
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Grumm/Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
544 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EST THU NOV 10 2016
Today, November 10th, marks the 41st anniversary of the sinking of
the Edmund Fitzgerald on Lk Superior. Though there are no strong low
pressure systems affecting the region this year, it certainly has
been a breezy day across the lake today and those stronger winds
will continue through tonight. Seeing high waves as well as did have
a earlier ship report of waves over 12 ft between Keweenaw Peninsula
and Isle Royale earlier today.
Otherwise we are experiencing a common theme lately as it is yet
another sunny and warm day across Upper Michigan. NWS Marquette
record high for today was 57 degrees. That record is no more though
as high thus far of 66 degrees has shattered it. Granted, the record
of 57 was on the lower end as most record highs into this part of
the month are well in the 60s and even low 70s. Unofficially, other
records are being set today based on available climate data at other
climate sites. In addition to the strong winds on Lk Superior, it
has been breezy over parts of Upper Michigan too with CMX observing
45 mph wind gust this morning. These warm and breezy conditions are
occurring ahead of sharp cold front dropping across central Manitoba
and northern Ontario. 12z raobs from Pickle Lake Ontario (CYPL) and
Churchhill Manitoba (CYYQ) showed strongest cold air advection and
the most moisture in low-levels was lagging the front over northern
Manitoba. Visible satellite shows this into this aftn with low
clouds still to the north of Lk Superior.
Front sweeps across Lk Superior early this evening then quickly over
rest of cwa by midnight. West-northwest winds will shift to the
northwest-north overnight. Wind gusts over 40 mph seem possible
along Lk Superior, especially from Big Bay and Marquette east to
Munising and Grand Marias/Muskallonge Lake State Park. Soundings
indicate could have 45-50 mph wind gusts at least briefly this
evening as 925mb winds up to 45 kts arrive this evening per RAP and
as cold air advection deepens blyr across Lk Superior. Since period
of strongest wind gusts will be brief, opted to issue SPS for
Marquette/Alger/Luce counties to highlight the gusty winds. With the
strong onshore winds will also see wave heights build over 10 feet
which could result in minor beach erosion. Will continue to mention
this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Other issue later tonight is possible lake effect rain/snow showers
as moisture up to h8 advects across Lk Superior and h85 temps drop to
-9c leading to delta t/s 18-19c. Soundings indicate at least a brief
time with the moist flow and some lift but there is also a lot of dry
air blo cloud base. Low-level winds are only briefly cyclonic and
convergent so that will not help matters either. Overall not
expecting a lot of precip but kept mention of isold rain/snow showers
into Fri morning before drying in blyr diminishes clouds and precip
chances into the aftn. Main story for Fri will be temps that are
20-30 degrees lower than readings today as highs will only reach
upper 30s to lower 40s. Those highs are not all that atypical from
normal mid November readings, but then again this is sure not your
typical Nov thus far as through Nov 9th the average temp is an
incredible 12.2 degrees above normal. Wow!
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 414 PM EST THU NOV 10 2016
Beginning Fri night...Center of sfc high pres will pass se across
the Midwest, not ideal for a really cold night as w to sw winds will
begin to pick up overnight with tightening pres gradient north of
the surface high/ridge. Nonetheless, ridge axis dropping se across
the area during the evening combined with precipitable water under
one-quarter inch will favor strong cooling during the evening.
Lowest temps, well down into the 20s, will be over the interior s
central, where the pres gradient will be weaker for a longer time
closer to the departing sfc hi pres.
The weekend will be dry and trend warmer as upstream ridge
deamplifies while shifting e in response to a shortwave moving in
off the Pacific NW Coast. Although that shortwave reaches northern
Ontario and the Upper Lakes Sun night, models not forecasting any
shra as airmass will be much too dry. In fact, there should be
little cloud cover. Waa pushes 850mb temps to as high as 10-12C Sat
night into Sun. Max temps on Sat in the upper 40s/lower 50s will
rise into the mid/upper 50s on Sun. Could hit 60F in locations that
see downsloping with a sw wind. Expect breezy conditions on both
days under tight pres gradient btwn high pres to the s and low pres
to the n and nw. Windier day will probably be on Sat as 925mb winds
are fcst in the 30-40kt range.
High pres ridge will build into the Upper Lakes on Mon in the wake
of the shortwave passing Sun night, providing a dry day. Models then
advertise another shortwave moving into the Upper Great Lakes Tue-
Wed time frame although timing differs between the models with the
GFS being more progressive than the slower ECMWF and the deeper and
even slower Canadian model. Will probably need to maintain chc pops
for Tue afternoon into early Wed. Late week, attention turns to what
could be a significant mid-upper trough moving out over the Plains
and the associated strong low pres center. Models differ on the
track of the low with the 12z GFS tracking the low just west of Lake
Superior late Fri and the 12z ECMWF bringing the low through central
Upper Mi. At this point, most of pcpn associated with system
should be rain spreading into the area at some point Thu night/Fri.
If farther east track of 12z ECMWF verifies, some light snow would
certainly be possible behind the system, next Fri night into
Sat...especially west.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 544 PM EST THU NOV 10 2016
Gusty winds will continue into Friday. A cold front moves through
this evening, bringing reduced CIGs tonight, possibly down to higher
MVFR late tonight. Some lake effect rain and snow showers will be
possible late tonight into Fri morning, but will remain on the light
side and they should not lead to significant vsby reduction and
will affect mostly SAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 340 PM EST THU NOV 10 2016
Active period on Lk Superior into the weekend. W-NW gales to 35
knots expected over mainly the east half of Lake Superior into
tonight. Then, SW gales to 35-45 knots are again expected Saturday
into Sunday morning, strongest over the north-central and western
lake as a low pressure system moves across southern Canada. Winds
are expected to diminish to less than 25 knots later Sun through
Tue.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LSZ249>251-265>267.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for LSZ244-264.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for
LSZ248.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA