Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/09/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
523 PM CST TUE NOV 8 2016
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold
front moving over lower Michigan early this afternoon. Strong cold
advection is occurring behind the front, and helping to support
widespread low clouds over north-central to eastern WI. Some
erosion of the clouds is likely to occur during the rest of the
afternoon from west to east as drier air arrives. Looking upstream,
another large area of high pressure resides over the Great Plains
with clear skies. Forecast concerns revolve around cloud trends
tonight, and temps on Wednesday.
Tonight...Clouds will likely hang on across eastern WI into the
evening due to flow off Lake Superior and thermal troughing.
Thereafter, high pressure will gradually build in from the northern
Plains. Another very dry airmass will accompany this surface high,
so should see clear skies and diminishing winds. Patchy fog looks
possible in the cold spots of n-c WI late as winds turn calm. Lows
look to fall into the 20s at these cold spots, but remain in the
30s elsewhere.
Wednesday...The high pressure system will slide across the area
bringing sunny conditions. Highs will range from the low to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
A very warm airmass ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday
will allow daytime highs to soar to around 60 across the area
during the afternoon hours with abundant sunshine given the lack
of appreciable moisture available to the cold front. The cold
front itself will track through during the late afternoon hours,
causing 850 mb temperatures to plummet from the mid teens, to the
single digits below zero later Thursday night into Friday,
representing a 15 to 20 degree drop. This will plunge highs on
Friday into the 40s, which is actually right around normal for
this time of year. Despite the passage of a cold front the chance
for precipitation will be too low to include any pops in this
forecast as moisture is hard to come by, even with the boost
afforded by the Great Lakes.
Temperatures begin to rebound during the weekend as return flow
brings warmer temperatures back to the western Great Lakes and
temperatures rise back to above normal levels. A weak cold front
will track through the region on Monday, with low enough pops to
leave the forecast dry with its passage. The push of cold air
behind this front will be very weak, therefore a significant drop
in temperatures is not expected from this front. A stronger front
is forecast to track through on Tuesday. This front will have a
bit better moisture and dynamics, however given this system will
also have Pacific origins pops will still only be in the chancy
category. Overall there is little evidence that our streak of near
or above normal temperatures will abate in the near term.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 523 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
Broken clouds with bases between 2500 and 4000 feet
will exit northeastern Wisconsin this evening. Excellent flying
weather is anticipated through the end of the week.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
Quiet weather is anticipated across central and southeast Illinois
overnight as high pressure and the associated dry airmass build
into the area. Low clouds and some light fog exist across
southeast Illinois at the moment, but expect these to fade as the
much lower dew point air filters in over the next several hours.
Going forecast is in pretty good shape and only expect a few minor
tweaks for the expected overnight trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
Weather map for the country is dominated by two features...the high
pressure ridge across the western half of the country...and the cold
front that is exiting the region this afternoon. A few showers
lingering in the southeast should move out in the next few hours as
the cold front moves to the east. For the overnight hours and into
tomorrow, the high pressure ridge will build into the Midwest for a
quiet and cool overnight and Wednesday. Northerly winds and very
little in the way of cloud cover expected through tomorrow. Although
the air behind the cold front is a bit cooler than it has been...
temperatures will just get closer to seasonal normals, with highs in
the mid to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
A fairly amplified upper level pattern will continue over the U.S.
into the weekend...characterized by a large ridge holding firm over
the western U.S. and Plains with a large upper trough over the
northeast. Very warm 850 mb temperatures associated with the western
ridge will push eastward as a shortwave moves into the Pacific NW
and southern Canada midweek resulting in 850 mb temperatures up to
15 C pushing across central IL Thursday. Nevertheless...forecast
soundings indicate mixing will be too shallow to fully tap into this
warm air significantly...therefore highs in the low 60s to around 64
in Jacksonville appear likely, after a cool clear morning with lows
in the mid to upper 30s. Pressure gradients setting up ahead of an
approaching cold front will result in breezy SW winds 10-15 mph
by afternoon with gusts 20 to 25 mph most areas north of I-70.
The above mentioned shortwave and cold front will dig into the
northeastern U.S. early Friday. All models maintain a dry forecast
for central IL on the western periphery of the cold air. Model
inconsistencies continue with the GFS operational run pushing the
cold air farthest west...an outlier from the GFS ensembles as well
as the ECMWF and Canadian. With surface high pressure approaching
from the north Saturday morning...perhaps enough wind will continue
south of I-70 to keep temperatures just above freezing...while most
areas to the north should see temperatures around freezing to 30
degrees. Still...some uncertainty in winds and air mass temperature
could result in deviations. Highs Saturday expected in the lower
50s. By Sunday morning...lows should reverse the pattern with the
sub-freezing temperatures south of I-70 and near or just above
freezing to the north as an increase in south winds develops to the
north.
As the ridge again breaks down, a southwest flow will set up ahead
of another wave tracking across the Canadian prairies late in the
weekend, and afternoon high temperatures are likely to get back up
to around 60 degrees Sunday through early next week. The progressive
pattern setting up will support at least a slight chance for
precipitation by Tuesday although considerable uncertainty remains
in any potential shortwave feature.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 00z TAF period as
high pressure dominates the weather. The only potential fly-in-
the-ointment will be lake-enhanced clouds flowing off Lake
Michigan late tonight into Wednesday morning. 925-850mb layer
winds are progged to be N/NE through the period...resulting in a
favorable fetch over the lake that could bring MVFR ceilings into
the far E/NE KILX CWA. Latest HRRR shows low clouds arriving along
the Illinois/Indiana border late tonight, but remaining just east
of KCMI. At this point, will carry SCT clouds at around 2500ft at
KCMI after 11z...with SKC at the remaining terminals. Surface
winds will be from the north at less than 10kt through Wednesday
afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1039 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the Ohio Valley tonight, crossing the
mountains during the late night. This front will then sweep
east across the Piedmont Wednesday. Cool dry high pressure will
settle back across the area for Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1025 PM EST Tuesday...
Air mass has moistened in mid levels as seen on the evening
soundings and cloud heights. HRRR and latest RAP have band of
showers arriving in the southeast West Virginia around 06Z/1AM.
Have made minor adjustments to the probability of precipitation
based on this timing. Also increased temperatures overnight. Not
too much more of a drop until the front arrives.
A vigorous upper level trough is moving across the Great Lakes
with the vorticity axis extending south into the Ohio Valley.
Strong dynamic lift is resulting in a solid band of showers across
the Ohio Valley along the surface cold front. The solid nature of
this shower activity is expected to be maintained up until the
front crosses the mountains. At that point the activity is
expected to break up as the front crosses the mountains.
Confidence is relatively high for at least some measurable
rainfall west of the Blue Ridge, albeit only a tenth or two. East
of the Blue Ridge, confidence is low, and even if showers do occur
east of the Blue Ridge, amounts will be meager (only enough to get
the ground wet).
There will be a noticeable change behind this front with a down
tick in temperature along with gusty northwest winds. It should
feel more November-like as temperatures struggle to rise out of
the 50s east of the Blue Ridge, and will likely fall through the
day across the mountains where readings will struggle to get out
of the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EST Tuesday...
500 mb trough will continue to progress eastward into the NC
coastline on Wednesday night, with surface cold front having cleared
our area into eastern VA. BUFKIT soundings reveal a trapped layer of
moisture beneath a subsidence inversion above 850 mb across
southeast WV. So while most of the region is clear, it seems likely
that upslope stratus will persist into the overnight across
Greenbrier, Summers and Mercer Counties in WV. Maintained chance
PoPs for showers (snow showers above 3000` in the mountains in
Greenbrier Co WV) for the first half of the evening, eventually
turning dry after midnight. It may actually be more of a drizzle
though given how unsaturated the moisture profile is. Lows range
from the mid 30s to the low 40s, coolest at elevation and across our
western counties.
Period of cooler air aloft is brief, however, as warm advection
again commences with surface high pressure building into the area on
Thursday. Should see a rather large diurnal temperature range on
Thursday owing to what should be ideal radiational cooling
conditions...with highs ranging from the mid 50s to the lower 60s
and lows mid 30s to lower 40s.
Mid-level ridge then begins to break down early on Friday as a
pronounced longwave trough digs southeastward from the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley region. Based on today`s 12z guidance suite, with
exception for limited chances for showers across the higher
elevations in western Greenbrier county WV, the limited amount of
moisture the front will be working with should just lead to a dry
frontal passage later Friday afternoon and evening. It should turn
briefly breezy with the frontal passage Friday - gusts nearing 30
mph around ridgetop level. Cold advection then takes hold with a
stronger surge of cooler air aloft - 850 mb temps fall to the -4 to -
6C range by 12z Saturday. Looking at a range in highs from the
mid/upper 50s in southeast WV to the mid/upper 60s in the southern
VA/northern NC piedmont areas. However, with the cold advection and
clearing skies Friday night, lows Friday evening should run in the
30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...
Large surface high then builds back in across the area for Saturday.
As with the Wednesday frontal passage, the residence time of the
colder air aloft remains short-lived. With that said, Saturday
stands to be a little closer to seasonal with highs in the lower to
mid 50s in the lowland areas to the mid/upper 40s across the higher
peaks.
High pressure remains in control through much of the period. Mid-
level ridging does begin to give way to increasingly cyclonic
flow aloft beyond Monday, but it is of little consequence on
sensible weather. While Saturday and Sunday evenings will be
relatively cool, a moderating trend back to above normal
temperatures looks to be the case for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 710 PM EST Tuesday...
Ceilings will lower from west to east across southeast West
Virginia, southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina
tonight. A wide band of showers was along and ahead of a cold
front from Lake Erie to southeast Missouri. The showers and cold
front will reach the central Appalachains around 06Z/1AM with MVFR
ceilings and visibilities. Lower confidence that MVFR ceilings
will spread east all the way to KLYH and KDAN.
Models have been consistent with the timing of the front, moving
it through KLYH and KDAN by 15Z/10AM. Ceilings east of the Blue
Ridge will lift with cloud becoming scattered by afternoon. Over
the mountains ceilings will remain MVFR.
After frontal passage, high confidence that wind will become
northwest then north with wind gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range.
Higher gusts are possible during the afternoon at elevations above
3500 feet.
Smoke from wildfires has spread over parts of the Appalachians in
western North Carolina, far southwest Virginia, and eastern
Tennessee. Plan on reduced ground and in-flight visibility in
these areas until the showers and cold front arrive tonight.
Extended aviation discussion...
Showers will linger in favored upslope behind the front, including
at KLWB and KBLF through Wednesday evening. Will see MVFR ceilings
at KBLF into Wednesday evening before airmass dries out.
High pressure to bring VFR Thu-Fri before next fropa which mainly
looks dry. Will see some possible MVFR cigs at BLF/LWB Friday
afternoon into Friday night. Brisk wind behind this front as well
with VFR conditions expected Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...
Smoke is in the air and is drifting northeast from the active
fires over Kentucky...Tennessee and North Carolina. Southwest
transport winds will result in smoke being pushed into the
Virginias through tonight.
First in a series of surface fronts will move across the forecast
area. One on Wednesday and One on Friday.
Wednesday`s front will provide the best opportunity for showers,
with the potential for one to two tenths of an inch of rain west
of the Blue Ridge (0.10 to 0.20). Little or no meaningful rainfall
is expected east of the Blue Ridge.
Friday`s front will be a dry frontal passage, but will usher in a
brief surge of cold air for the weekend.
Breezy conditions can be expected with both frontal passages.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...AMS/JR
FIRE WEATHER...PM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
355 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring some rain showers to the region
today and allow for cooler temperatures to return to the region.
Seasonable and dry weather is expected tomorrow before another cold
front crosses the region on Friday. Cool and blustery weather is
expected on Saturday, before temperatures moderate back to normal
for the remainder of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 354 AM EST...A cold front is located just west of the
region over central New York. Regional mosaic radar shows light
rain showers are currently progressing from west to east across
the region this morning. The 3km HRRR shows that the best chance
for rain showers will be this morning, although far southern areas
could see a few additional rain showers this afternoon, as the
main upper level dynamics associated with this frontal system pass
south of the area. QPF looks fairly light with this feature, as
weak surface convergence and limited moisture available will keep
amounts under a quarter of an inch (and many areas won`t even see
a tenth). Still, coverage looks widespread enough for most areas
to get wet, so POPs at some point today will be likely for much of
the area.
Once the front crosses the area, winds will switch to the n-nw and
cold air advection will begin. This may allow temps to tumble a
few degrees this afternoon, so highs today look to be in the late
morning or very early afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 40s to
mid 50s, with the warmest temps in southeastern areas where the
front will be last to cross.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the departing front, clouds will slowly decrease this
evening into tonight. This will allow for min temps in the upper
20s to mid 30s tonight with dry conditions.
A weak shortwave ridge will briefly build in for Thursday. This
will result in a pleasant day with seasonable temps in the mid
40s to mid 50s. Should be a decent amount of sun as well, although
far northern areas will see more clouds (esp by afternoon) as the
next system starts to approach.
Another northern stream cold front and upper level shortwave will
move across the region for tomorrow night into Friday. This one
will have a much bigger push of chilly air aloft, although once
again, moisture will be very limited. Most areas probably won`t
see any showers, but cannot rule out some for far northern and
western areas for late Thursday night into Friday, especially
across the higher elevations. Lows ahead of the front on Thursday
night will be in the mid 30s to low 40s and highs on Friday look
to reach the mid 40s to mid 50s once again for most, although the
Adirondacks will only reach the upper 30s to low 40s. It looks to
get rather breezy behind the front as well, with northwest winds
gusting over 25 MPH for Friday afternoon.
With much colder air working its way into the region, temps will
be chilly for Friday night with 20s for most areas. A few
lingering snow showers or flurries are possible across the higher
elevations of the Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains with
the cyclonic flow aloft, but these should be fairly light and
sparse in coverage thanks to the limited moisture available.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper trough exits and upper ridging gradually builds east from the
central U.S. Low level ridging builds south of the region and
temperatures will moderate through the beginning of next week,
especially Sunday through Tuesday.
There are some indications of some upper energy and a weak cold
front approaching for the Monday night through Tuesday time frame but
lots of uncertainties in the details in guidance. The fast upper
flow of Pacific origin is tough to resolve in long range guidance
resulting in the differences.
The upper flow from the Pacific and lack of amplified northern
stream upper flow over eastern North America also points to
moderating temperatures, generally near to little above normal.
Also, just indicating intervals of clouds and isolated showers
Monday night and Tuesday with the uncertainties in the timing of the
next system.
Highs Saturday in the 40s with 30s higher terrain. Warming Sunday
with highs in the lower to mid 50s but some mid 40s higher terrain.
Highs Monday and Tuesday in the mid to upper 50s but mid to upper
40s higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High clouds continue to stream ahead of the approaching cold front.
The clouds will thicken and lower through the early morning hours
with chances for showers increasing from northwest to southeast as
the cold front moves into and across the region. Expecting MVFR
conditions due to ceilings and visibility with the showers. MVFR
conditions are expected to linger due to ceilings after the showers
end with an improvement to VFR expected at KALB and KGFL between 21Z-
24Z. VFR returns to KPOU and KPSF after 00Z.
Light and variable winds through the early morning hours with a
northwest to north flow developing in the wake of the front through
daybreak. The northwest to north winds will increase in speed and
become gusty at KALB and KPSF by late in the day. Northwest to north
winds will continue at 6-10 Kt through this evening.
Outlook...
Thursday through Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG
WX.
Veterans Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of
SHRA.
Friday Night through Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will pass through the region today with plenty of
clouds and some rain showers. Nearly the entire region will see
under a quarter of an inch of rainfall. RH values will only fall
to around 70 percent this afternoon with winds becoming north to
northwest at 5 to 15 MPH.
RH values will be as low as 40 to 60 percent on Thursday
afternoon. West to southwest winds will be 5 to 15 MPH. The next
chance of rain will be on Friday, although the chance is rather
low and most areas will continue to remain dry.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Limited amounts of precipitation are expected over the next five
days across the Albany Hydrologic Service Area. Some rain showers
are possible with a cold frontal passage today (mainly this
morning), but most areas will only see less than a quarter inch,
and in fact, many areas may receive less than one tenth of an
inch. Some additional rain/snow showers are possible again with
another cold front on Friday, but moisture will be rather limited
with this system as well. Most areas will only see a few
hundredths of an inch (if at all), before dry weather returns for
the weekend.
Although some recent rainfall has helped streamflows in parts of
the area, the US Drought Monitor continues to have much of the
region within the D1 (Moderate Drought) or D2 (Severe Drought)
categories. The minor amounts of rainfall expected this week will
do little to alleviate the current ongoing dry conditions.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
331 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A developing cut off upper low over north and central Texas will dig
southwest into southwest Texas today. The closed upper low will
continue to dig west and south into northern Mexico tonight before
finally lifting northward into far west Texas and southern New Mexico
by Friday. An upper ridge extending from the West Coast across the
central Rockies and central Plains states today and tonight will
begin to break down by Friday as the closed upper low impacts west
Texas and the Panhandles Friday into Saturday. A cold front will push
through the forecast area late Thursday night and Friday morning
allowing for some briefly cooler conditions late this week into the
first part of the weekend. Lack of low and mid level moisture will
result in a dry forecast through the middle of the next week.
Removed patchy fog for this morning as the HRRR and other CAMs and
short range models not supporting the development of fog this
morning. Low clouds currently across the southeastern portions of
the Texas Panhandle should give way to mostly sunny skies later this
morning and this afternoon. Freeze Warning still in effect through
15Z or 9 AM this morning. Temperatures are currently on track for
some upper 20s to low 30s minimum temperatures around daybreak this
morning.
Schneider
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 59 40 65 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 61 38 71 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 5
Boise City OK 61 35 69 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 60 41 67 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 60 37 66 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Canyon TX 58 39 64 41 61 / 0 0 5 0 0
Clarendon TX 59 42 66 46 65 / 0 5 5 0 0
Dalhart TX 60 34 65 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 61 36 70 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 59 38 64 40 61 / 0 0 5 0 0
Lipscomb TX 62 40 70 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 5
Pampa TX 60 40 65 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 5
Shamrock TX 59 42 67 46 65 / 0 5 0 0 5
Wellington TX 58 43 68 47 67 / 0 5 5 5 5
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...Hartley...
Hutchinson...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...
Randall...Roberts...Sherman.
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.
&&
$$
15/11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
232 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
07z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis now shows a highly amplified
upper level pattern in place over North America. An absolutely
immense upper ridge is in control of the inter-mountain west and
the Canadian Rockies...forcing the northern stream Pacific jet
well to the north for this time of year over-top the ridge.
Northern stream flow then quickly turns southward into an
amplifying mid/upper trough that is digging out of the Great Lakes
and into the eastern CONUS. The southern stream jet is currently
moving over the western Gulf of Mexico before ridging up over the
northern Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula. The digging trough to
the north will shift this jet and ridge to the south of our region
by later Wednesday. Although the strongest shortwave/PVA within
the longwave trough will exit off the Carolina/Mid-Atlantic coast
late Wednesday...the southern periphery of the trough will still
swing across the Florida peninsula and turn our flow aloft more
cyclonic in nature. Although the passing trough will keep quite a
bit of clouds in our skies and even a few light showers over the
Nature Coast...Beyond Wednesday...this will actually bode well for
our forecast as the push of deep layer subsidence behind the
trough quickly scours out the column moisture and provide a mostly
sunny and dry forecast for Thursday and Friday.
At the surface...High pressure is still centered to our north over
GA/AL early this morning. However...inverted troughing can be
analyzed over the north-central Gulf of Mexico...with a weak warm
frontal feature extending eastward to the Florida Big Bend region.
Slow but steady isentropic upglide along the 295-315K surfaces over
this boundary is slowly moistening the column aloft into the Nature
coast and supporting a scattering of light showers and sprinkles
early this morning. At this point (230 AM)...have not seen any
stations report rainfall south of Perry...so would appear that the
radar returns are likely detecting virga...and the precip is not
reaching the ground yet. However...with the column moistening...feel
it is only a matter of time until the column will support precip
all the way to the surface.
Temperatures early this morning are in the upper 50s to middle 60s
for most spots...although typically warmer locations around the
waters of Tampa Bay south along the coast are several degrees
warmer. With the clouds slowly on the increase...expecting temps
to generally hold steady north of I-4 through sunrise...and maybe
drop another couple of degrees at most further to the south.
&&
.Short term (Today through Thursday)...
Today...As the dynamics associated with the amplifying trough
overspread from the north early this morning...the warm front and
associated omega fields are expected to become even more defined.
Weak...but deep layer isentropic upglide across the NE Gulf of
Mexico and northern Florida over this frontal boundary between the
295-315K surfaces...combined with increasing upper divergence to the
south of a strengthening jetstreak over the southern CONUS appear as
through they will be sufficient to the really moisten the column to
the north of the I-4 corridor...providing abundant cloud cover and
at least sct showers into the Nature Coast zones. This upglide will
pivot southward through the later morning and afternoon hours...but
generally weaken with time. We will also lose the best upper
divergence with time. Therefore...expect the clouds to certainly
pivot south with the upglide and a swath of pre-trough synoptic
forcing for ascent. Given the available moisture and some
forcing...can not rule out a few sprinkles into the Tampa Bay area
midday into the afternoon...but overall the potential for measurable
rainfall will be decreasing the further south one travels toward the
I-4 corridor and also the further into the daylight hours we get. As
it looks now...expect mostly cloud to cloudy skies to expand
southward across our southern zones today...but do not anticipate
enough forcing to support the potential for any measurable
precip to the south and southeast of the Sarasota area.
Temperatures today will be held down north of I-4 due to the all
day clouds and a little bit of evaporative cooling from the
sprinkles. High temps in the lower/middle 70s should be common.
South of I-4 temps will be warmer...looking for upper 70s to
around 80.
Tonight...The upper trough axis will pass off the eastern seaboard
and east of the Florida peninsula the overnight hours. While much of
the area will start the night out mostly cloudy (perhaps Levy/Citrus
will start to see breaks toward sunset)...Deep layer subsidence and
much drier air aloft will push south during the overnight
hours...clearing skies from north to south through the I-4 corridor.
Early Thursday morning we likely will still see some residual
lingering column moisture and clouds to the south of
Hillsborough/Polk Counties...but the moisture above 850mb will be
scoured out quickly during the morning hours to according to all the
latest guidance.
Low temperatures by dawn will range from the upper 40s/lower 50s
under the clearing skies of Levy county...to the upper 50s/lower
60s along the I-4 corridor...and finally the warmest spots will
be over southern Pinellas county and down toward Fort Myers where
lower to middle 60s should be common.
Thursday...Mostly sunny to sunny skies for most of the region
through the day in the forecast. Will start things out mostly cloudy
early in the morning for Lee/Charlotte counties...then becoming
partly to mostly sunny by midday0. No chance of rain in the forecast
given the lack of moisture and subsidence. High temperatures
thursday afternoon will rebound to the middle/upper 70s for the
Nature coast...and generally within a degree or 2 of 80 from I-4
southward.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through next Tuesday)...
Weather throughout the mid and long term forecast period is fairly
uneventful although there appears to be, at the moment, a chance for
some rainfall as we get into early next week. On Thursday, surface
high pressure filters into the area becoming established through the
weekend with seasonal temperatures expected. Late Monday into
Tuesday, a mid-level shortwave with surface trough swing into the
southeastern United States. Both the GFS and ECMWF show decent
moisture in place ahead of this so low end scattered PoPs appear
just in the forecast at this time.
&&
.Aviation (09/06Z Through 10/06Z)...
General VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF
period...although clouds will be on the increase from north to south
in the 4-6KFT range and above. Just a slight chance of a brief
shower or sprinkle for the Tampa Bay area terminals between 14Z and
21Z...but no cig or vis restrictions are anticipated.
Winds will generally remain below 10 knots through the period.
Skies begin to clear from north to south late in the TAF
period...and through the morning hours of Thursday.
&&
.Marine...
Light to moderate easterly winds generally under 15 knots will
prevail across the coastal waters through this evening. Scattered
showers will be in the forecast through the evening. Winds will
shift to the northeast this evening and overnight with scattered
showers ending and winds approaching 15 knots at times. High
pressure then builds in from the northwest during Thursday and
Friday keeping winds generally light out of the north and
northeast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels
today. There are likely to be a few showers across the Nature
Coast...however a significant wetting rainfall does not look
likely in most spots. Dispersion indices will also be quite low
today. Drier air will begin to arrive from north to south tonight
into Thursday. Although most locations will not see relative
humidity values drop below 35 percent...areas up toward
Levy/Citrus/Sumter counties may flirt with or briefly drop below
35 percent during the afternoon hours. However...ERC values are
low for these zones...preventing any potential for red flag
conditions.
Fog Potential...No significant fog or visibility reductions are
expected through at least Friday.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 77 61 80 60 / 10 10 0 0
FMY 81 64 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 78 60 79 56 / 10 0 0 0
SRQ 78 64 78 59 / 10 10 0 0
BKV 77 56 78 50 / 20 10 0 0
SPG 78 65 79 63 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/Mroczka
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...11/McKaughan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
923 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring some rain showers to the region
today and allow for cooler temperatures to return to the region.
Seasonable and dry weather is expected tomorrow before another cold
front crosses the region on Friday. Cool and blustery weather is
expected on Saturday, before temperatures moderate back to normal
for the remainder of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 920 AM EST...A cold front is located off the southern New
England coast and continues to quickly move eastward. Some
showers associated with this boundary have been impacting areas
mainly south and east of the Greater Capital District.
The 3km HRRR shows that the best chance for rain showers will be
this morning, although far southern areas could see a few
additional rain showers into this afternoon, as the main upper
level dynamics associated with this frontal system pass south of
the area. QPF looks fairly light with this feature, as weak
surface convergence and limited moisture available will keep
amounts under a quarter of an inch (and many areas won`t even see
a tenth). Still, coverage looks widespread enough for most areas
to get wet, so POPs at some point today will be likely for much of
the area.
Winds will switch to the n-nw behind the front and cold air
advection will begin. This may allow temps to tumble a few degrees
this afternoon, so highs today look to be in the late morning or
very early afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s,
with the warmest temps in southeastern areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the departing front, clouds will slowly decrease this
evening into tonight. This will allow for min temps in the upper
20s to mid 30s tonight with dry conditions.
A weak shortwave ridge will briefly build in for Thursday. This
will result in a pleasant day with seasonable temps in the mid
40s to mid 50s. Should be a decent amount of sun as well, although
far northern areas will see more clouds (esp by afternoon) as the
next system starts to approach.
Another northern stream cold front and upper level shortwave will
move across the region for tomorrow night into Friday. This one
will have a much bigger push of chilly air aloft, although once
again, moisture will be very limited. Most areas probably won`t
see any showers, but cannot rule out some for far northern and
western areas for late Thursday night into Friday, especially
across the higher elevations. Lows ahead of the front on Thursday
night will be in the mid 30s to low 40s and highs on Friday look
to reach the mid 40s to mid 50s once again for most, although the
Adirondacks will only reach the upper 30s to low 40s. It looks to
get rather breezy behind the front as well, with northwest winds
gusting over 25 MPH for Friday afternoon.
With much colder air working its way into the region, temps will
be chilly for Friday night with 20s for most areas. A few
lingering snow showers or flurries are possible across the higher
elevations of the Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains with
the cyclonic flow aloft, but these should be fairly light and
sparse in coverage thanks to the limited moisture available.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper trough exits and upper ridging gradually builds east from the
central U.S. Low level ridging builds south of the region and
temperatures will moderate through the beginning of next week,
especially Sunday through Tuesday.
There are some indications of some upper energy and a weak cold
front approaching for the Monday night through Tuesday time frame but
lots of uncertainties in the details in guidance. The fast upper
flow of Pacific origin is tough to resolve in long range guidance
resulting in the differences.
The upper flow from the Pacific and lack of amplified northern
stream upper flow over eastern North America also points to
moderating temperatures, generally near to little above normal.
Also, just indicating intervals of clouds and isolated showers
Monday night and Tuesday with the uncertainties in the timing of the
next system.
Highs Saturday in the 40s with 30s higher terrain. Warming Sunday
with highs in the lower to mid 50s but some mid 40s higher terrain.
Highs Monday and Tuesday in the mid to upper 50s but mid to upper
40s higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers increasing from northwest to southeast as the cold front
moves into and across the region. Current VFR conditions in showers
at KALB and KGFL will become intervals of MVFR through this morning.
VCSH at KPOU and KPSF will become intervals of showers and MVFR
conditions toward midday. Although, ceilings at KPSF are already
intermittently MVFR and those intervals will become predominant by
afternoon.
MVFR conditions are expected to linger due to ceilings after the
showers end with an improvement to VFR expected at KALB and KGFL
between 21Z-24Z. VFR returns to KPOU and KPSF after 00Z.
Light and variable winds through mid morning with a northwest to
north flow developing in the wake of the front. The northwest to
north winds will increase in speed and become gusty at KALB and KPSF
by late in the day. Northwest to north winds will continue at 6-10
Kt through this evening.
Outlook...
Thursday through Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG
WX.
Veterans Day: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of
SHRA.
Friday Night through Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will pass through the region today with plenty of
clouds and some rain showers. Nearly the entire region will see
under a quarter of an inch of rainfall. RH values will only fall
to around 70 percent this afternoon with winds becoming north to
northwest at 5 to 15 MPH.
RH values will be as low as 40 to 60 percent on Thursday
afternoon. West to southwest winds will be 5 to 15 MPH. The next
chance of rain will be on Friday, although the chance is rather
low and most areas will continue to remain dry.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Limited amounts of precipitation are expected over the next five
days across the Albany Hydrologic Service Area. Some rain showers
are possible with a cold frontal passage today (mainly this
morning), but most areas will only see less than a quarter inch,
and in fact, many areas may receive less than one tenth of an
inch. Some additional rain/snow showers are possible again with
another cold front on Friday, but moisture will be rather limited
with this system as well. Most areas will only see a few
hundredths of an inch (if at all), before dry weather returns for
the weekend.
Although some recent rainfall has helped streamflows in parts of
the area, the US Drought Monitor continues to have much of the
region within the D1 (Moderate Drought) or D2 (Severe Drought)
categories. The minor amounts of rainfall expected this week will
do little to alleviate the current ongoing dry conditions.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
510 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2016
.AVIATION...
Winds are expected to remain below 10 knots and skies are expected
to remain VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 331 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A developing cut off upper low over north and central Texas will dig
southwest into southwest Texas today. The closed upper low will
continue to dig west and south into northern Mexico tonight before
finally lifting northward into far west Texas and southern New Mexico
by Friday. An upper ridge extending from the West Coast across the
central Rockies and central Plains states today and tonight will
begin to break down by Friday as the closed upper low impacts west
Texas and the Panhandles Friday into Saturday. A cold front will push
through the forecast area late Thursday night and Friday morning
allowing for some briefly cooler conditions late this week into the
first part of the weekend. Lack of low and mid level moisture will
result in a dry forecast through the middle of the next week.
Removed patchy fog for this morning as the HRRR and other CAMs and
short range models not supporting the development of fog this
morning. Low clouds currently across the southeastern portions of
the Texas Panhandle should give way to mostly sunny skies later this
morning and this afternoon. Freeze Warning still in effect through
15Z or 9 AM this morning. Temperatures are currently on track for
some upper 20s to low 30s minimum temperatures around daybreak this
morning.
Schneider
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...Hartley...
Hutchinson...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...
Randall...Roberts...Sherman.
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.
&&
$$
15/11
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
929 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2016
Maximum temps the biggest concern today with uncertainty on how
high the thermometer will rise this afternoon. Went a head and
raised the forecast a couple degrees along and west of the valley
per trends in the HRRR guidance as it performed better during last
weekends run of record high maximums.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2016
Forecast challenge will be high temperatures today. Currently,
there are mainly clear skies with temperatures in the middle 30s.
Models show 850mb temps rising to +16C to +18C across most of the
FA today, which is similar to what they were late last week when
record highs in the low 70s were set. However, both days that
happened, temps started out in the 40s. Today we are starting out
a little cooler, so a little hesitant about going any warmer than
the mid 60s for highs. There are favorable SW sfc winds, which are
usually good warming winds, but sometimes the best temp surges
come with more of a W direction. All said, looking at record or
near record highs today. Will transition to cold advection later
tonight, with winds switching to the W-NW.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2016
Still looking dry for Thursday and Friday, but temperatures will
see a drop from where they get today. For Thursday can also expect
some gusty NNW winds. Thursday night will get fairly cool with sfc
high pressure building in, which will make Friday highs even
cooler than those from Thu (but still a little above normal).
Saturday through Tuesday...Overall dry and quiet conditions with
above normal temperatures continue to be the story.
Upper ridge axis across the central CONUS to start the period will
provide for another beautiful weekend with highs 15+ degrees above
average. 850 mb temperatures of 12-14 C (warmest across central and
eastern North Dakota) should result in highs generally in the 50s
with some low 60s across the west. Although, a weak front/trough
moving from west to east across the area early Sunday might make
Sunday just a tad cooler. Return flow behind surface high pressure
propagating across the Midwest will bring breezy conditions
throughout the weekend but plenty of solar during the day should
still make it feel plenty warm.
The start of the work week will bring northwest flow aloft with the
possibility of a few weak waves and associated cloud cover to move
through the area. However, precipitation chances continue to look
fairly minimal with not a lot of moisture or forcing to work with.
Temperatures through midweek remain mild in the upper 40s and into
the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 704 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2016
No ceilings to worry about, the main aviation issue will be a wind
switch later tonight as a cold front moves through. Looking a
little ahead of things, Thursday afternoon will be windier from
NNW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Lee
AVIATION...Godon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1008 AM EST Wed Nov 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area later today. A stronger
cold front will approach Friday and move offshore Friday night and
early Saturday. High pressure will build back again this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 10 AM Wednesday...No signif changes to fcst. Init batch of
very light shra falling from mid lvl clouds will cross mainly nrn
tier next cpl hrs. Expect a break most areas later this aftn then
additional shra toward evening will move in across nrn tier assoc
with upr low/trf.
Prev disc..only made minor adjustments to the forecast with the
update, mainly with temps which have been rising some with light
WAA ahead of the front. Radar imagery showing returns across the
central piedmont but only a few locations reporting precip
reaching the ground with high cloud bases generally above 8k ft
and a very dry sub-cloud layer. HRRR showing light rain moving
into the coastal plain around 16-18z and gradually moving eastward
through the afternoon.
A strong upper trough across the Ohio River Valley with an
attendant cold stretching along the Appalachian mountains early
this morning will move across eastern NC today. Clouds will
continue to thicken and lower through the morning but precip
should hold off until mid day to early afternoon as the sub-cloud
layer remains very dry. The better chance of showers will likely
come late this afternoon as the core of the upper trough moves
into the region. Despite strong forcing ahead of the upper trough,
not anticipating a lot of rainfall with westerly downsloping flow
dominating. Highs today will generally be in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Shower chances continue this evening with
the upper trough continuing to swing across the region with best
chances across NE sections. The column dries quickly late in the
evening and after midnight with skies clearing from the west.
Strong CAA develops in the wake of the upper trough with gusty NW
winds developing late evening through the overnight, especially
along the coast where gusts of 30-40mph will be possible. Lows
expected in the low to mid 40s inland to around 50 along the
coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday, upper level low pressure will move
offshore Thursday. Another strong cold front will cross the region
late Friday/Friday evening with a cool but dry weekend expected.
Thursday through Saturday...As closed upper low moves offshore
Thursday, gusty northwest winds gradually back to SW/WSW late on
Thursday into early Friday ahead of a stronger cold front.
Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday with gusty NW winds in
strong cold-air advection behind the first cold front leading to
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With the more SW flow on
Friday, temperatures warm ahead of the cold front with highs in
the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Despite some strong mid-level
shortwave energy crossing the region Friday night and Saturday,
the low-level will remain dry and no precipitation is expected
with this front. Saturday will be similar to Thursday with gusty
NW winds and highs in the mid/upper 50s.
Saturday Night through Tuesday...As high pressure settles over the
Carolinas and winds diminish, expected Saturday night to be cold
with lows around freezing inland to the upper 30s south coast and
mid 40s Outer Banks. This appears to be a short-lived cold
outbreak as upper heights build and highs quickly return to the
60s Sunday into Tuesday. GFS hints at a coastal system that could
produce some precipitation along the coast Monday into Tuesday,
while the ECWMF keeps the area dry. Will go with continuity and
keep things dry at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Wednesday...Expect VFR conditions through this morning
with mid and high clouds gradually lowering ahead of a cold front
and strong upper trough. Isolated to scattered showers will be
possible this afternoon and evening as the trough and attendant
front moves across the region. Mainly VFR cigs expected this
afternoon and evening but soundings indicate there could be a
brief period of MVFR cigs this evening as it will take some time
for the lower levels to moisten. Skies clear late evening and
overnight with VFR dominating and gusty NW winds developing,
especially along the coast.
Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday, with generally dry and cool weather expected
through the weekend, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
Expect gusty N/NW winds behind cold fronts on Thursday and again
on Saturday with gusts to 25-30 knots possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 10 AM Wednesday...No changes with mainly wrly flow 10 to 20
kts ahead of cold front today with lingering 5 to 8 foot swell.
Prev disc...A cold front will approach from the west this morning
and cross the waters this afternoon. W/SW winds around 10-15 kt
expected much of the day with winds becoming NW and increasing to
20-30 kt overnight. Gusts to gale force will be possible late this
evening into Thursday morning and have upgraded the SCA to a Gale
Warning for all waters except the Neuse/Pamlico River zones where
an SCA has been initiated for the same time. Both Wavewatch and
NWPS are not handling the backswell from a low pressure system
across the western Atlantic and have been underdone with seas by
3-5 ft across the northern waters overnight. Seas continue around
7-10 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet and 3-6 ft south early this
morning. Do expect seas to gradually subside today as the low
pressure system moves away from the area but confidence is low
with just how much they`ll come down and expect it to remain a few
feet above model guidance. Seas will build again overnight tonight
as strong NW flow develops.
Have extended High Surf Advisory through 1 PM this afternoon as
large long period swell continue across the waters. With models
handling the swell poorly...confidence is low as when the surf may
fall below criteria but the trend is for the swells to gradually
subside through the day.
Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 350 AM Wednesday, gusty north to northwest winds and very
rough seas will persist Thursday, especially in the morning, with
double-digit seas and winds gusting to near 30 knots. By later in
the day Thursday and into Friday, winds back to more SW/W at 10-20
knots with seas dropping off to 3-5 feet per local SWAN model.
This will be a short-lived lull, as a strong cold front crosses
the area late Friday leading to another round of gusty NW winds
20-30 knots with seas building and another SCA will be likely.
Initialized the Thursday wave forecast with the local SWAN as
current Wavewatch was too low as expect seas as high as 11-13 feet
during the morning hours on Thursday. Seas will probably top out
at least 7-8 feet behind the second front Saturday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Thursday for AMZ136-137.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for
AMZ130-131-135-150-152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...RF/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
356 PM EST Wed Nov 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region today bringing
widespread showers that will diminish late this afternoon and
evening. Cooler conditions are in store for the second half of the
week and lasting into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Updated the forecast with some real data for the current weather
and clouds. Most of the rain is confined to the southeast now and
will be slow to exit this afternoon. The HRRR and most NCEP models
think it should all exit before 0000 UTC.
There are lots of low clouds over the Commonwealth with some
breaks in the clouds as seen on the visual imagery. WV shows we
have lost most of the seeder/feeder clouds to the east so in
central and western areas we lack the means to make big drops.
So outside of convection, of which there is little, drizzle would
be the likely precipitation type.
The cloud bases shall lift and the moisture shall diminish and
this evening and overnight all will slowly improve. Should be a
nice sunrise on Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Weak ridging at surface between the retreating low and the
approaching cold front. The flow supports a fairly good warm up.
The 850 hPa temperatures rebound fast Thursday with the strong
warm advection ahead of the front. Should be warm than normal
mid-November afternoon.
No rain and a nice pre-cold frontal day.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Active northwesterly flow pattern along the U.S. Canadian border
is forecast to persist through much of the period. This will act
to suppress the recent persistent upper ridging and lead to
general troffiness over the eastern third of the conus. Upper
ridge may try to rebuild northward over the weekend.
A strong trof with a deepening low east of James Bay and an
associated strong cold front will sweep southeast toward PA late
Thursday passing across the state Friday. Notably colder air is
forecast to move in behind this front and it retrogrades the upper
level trough, at least temporarily, back across PA. Both GFS and
ECMWF show thicknesses down to at least 522. Hence temperatures
over the weekend will be 15 to 20 degrees colder than near the
start of the week. Also, it is cold enough with a brisk north to
northwest flow across the lakes Friday night and Saturday for a
chance of mix rain and snow showers across the northern tier and
western mountains with snow more likely at higher elevations and
overnight. Pops are in the 20s and 30s for seven days out.
Despite the more active jet pattern, chances for significant
precipitation look to remain limited. Forcing short waves are
fast moving and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is cut off with
surface high pressure sitting over the southeast.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Considerable amount of low clouds and patchy drizzle still
lingering in northwestern mountains so areas IFR/MVFR lingering.
Rain in the southeast with IFR/MVFR continues and will into later
afternoon or early evening. Southwestern areas have fewer showers
and stronger winds. Gusty winds possible this afternoon behind the
front. Winds should back from NNW to more westerly overnight.
Models want to get precipitation to our east by about 0000 UTC
this evening. Overnight should see mainly VFR and MVFR with patch
areas of fog.
Should be a VFR all around Thursday.
Outlook...
Thu...Mainly VFR.
Fri...Restrictions become likely in NW mtns in sct rain showers.
Still breezy out of the NW.
Fri Night...Restrictions likely NW half in sct rain/snow showers.
Sat-Sun...Mainly VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...Gartner
AVIATION...Grumm
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
245 PM MST Wed Nov 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect increasing clouds overnight with some patchy fog possible
in eastern Hudspeth County and in parts of the Sacramento
Mountains. An area of low pressure aloft over northern Mexico will
bring a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to
portions of the area Thursday and Friday. The best chances for
precip will be east and northeast of El Paso on Friday.
Temperatures will slowly warm up Sunday and Monday as the system
moves out of the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Interesting forecast situation over the next 2-3 days with a
complicated pattern. Confidence is low with some of the details,
but at the same those "details" are relatively low-impact.
Easterly low-level flow continues as surface high builds across
northern and central Texas, and will continue to push cooler air
into the region overnight.
Mid-level clouds will push westward overnight (in the 6-8KFT
range), and NAM forecast soundings suggest lower clouds (around
2Kft) will develop as well, with some patchy upslope fog possible
in parts of Hudspeth and eastern Otero Counties. The GFS is drier
in the low-levels, and the HRRR products suggest no low clouds.
However, 21z METAR and Mesonet observations versus the 12z GFS and
18Z NAM dewpoints suggest the GFS is too dry with dewpoints
running 3 to 5 degrees behind obs in upstream areas over the
Trans-Pecos region. So, I introduced patchy fog in eastern
Otero/Hudspeth and bumped up the cloud cover.
Last night`s Freeze Warning verified well with the Gila-Cliff
Valley finally dropping below freezing and widespread freezing
temps across the Sacramento Mountains above 7500 feet, taking both
areas "out of contention" for Freeze Warnings. Areas around
Mayhill saw freezing temperatures as well, but the few
observations available further south around Weed and Pinon were
warmer. The increasing clouds will limit radiational cooling and
should offset the effects of continued weak cold advection in this
area tonight, so I did not go with a Freeze Warning.
For tomorrow and Friday...the upper low over northern Chihuahua
will slowly drift west, stall out over the northern Sierra Madres
Thursday night, then lift back to the ENE on Friday. Precip
chances will be spotty due to overall weak upper level forcing.
The best chances will be on Friday mainly over eastern areas ahead
of the upper low as it moves over the El Paso area. Precipitation
will be convective with isolated thunder due to cooler temps
aloft yielding Lifted Index values in the -1 to -3 range.
Cloudcroft may see some mixed precip on Friday if any heavier
convective showers can develop there -- probably a rain/graupel
sort of situation. Isolated small hail is not out of the question
over Hudspeth County as well. However, no accumulation is
expected in the Sacramentos as temperatures will be in the 40s
and overall precip amounts will be light. So again, while the
details of the forecast are really tricky, the impacts will be
low.
Saturday is trending drier as the upper low weakens into an open
trough and moves out of the area. Dry northwest flow aloft will
prevail through early next week with temperatures slowly climbing
back to near (or slightly above) normal by Monday. As the upper
flow becomes more westerly on Tuesday, weak lee troughing will
result in westerly low level flow and slightly warmer
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 10/00Z-11/00Z...
An upper level low pressure system will slowly continue to
develop and drift westward from Texas to just south of New Mexico
during the next 24 ours brining an increase in cloudiness and a
chance showers especially Thursday. Overnight: SCT-BKN 040-080
SCT-BKN 100-140 and east winds 7-12kts. Slight risk of -SHRA for
Hudspeth and Otero counties. After 12Z: Sct- bkn030-050 bkn080-120
with BKN030 -SHRA AND SLIGHT RISK -TSRA after 15Z especially south
of a DMN-SRR line. Winds NE-SE 7-12kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level low pressure system will move slowly across across
the region and develop just south of New Mexico later tonight into
Saturday. The increased moisture will bring increasing cloudiness
and cooler temperatures along with increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms Thursday into Saturday, mainly south of a Deming
Ruidoso line. Rainfall amounts will be generally light. The system
should be gone Sunday with high pressure aloft resulting in warmer
dry weather early next week for most of next week. Min RH values
will range from 30% to 40% most areas Wednesday and about 10% higher
overall on Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 47 62 47 63 / 0 10 20 30
Sierra Blanca 42 59 44 58 / 0 20 20 40
Las Cruces 41 60 43 64 / 0 10 10 30
Alamogordo 41 60 40 64 / 0 0 0 20
Cloudcroft 27 41 29 42 / 0 10 10 30
Truth or Consequences 41 58 41 61 / 0 0 0 20
Silver City 37 55 38 59 / 0 0 0 20
Deming 40 60 42 64 / 0 10 10 30
Lordsburg 42 61 39 65 / 0 10 10 20
West El Paso Metro 49 62 49 65 / 0 10 20 30
Dell City 39 62 41 67 / 0 10 10 30
Fort Hancock 44 64 46 60 / 0 20 20 40
Loma Linda 43 55 45 57 / 0 20 20 30
Fabens 41 62 45 62 / 0 20 20 40
Santa Teresa 41 61 45 65 / 0 10 20 30
White Sands HQ 43 61 45 63 / 0 10 10 20
Jornada Range 36 60 39 64 / 0 10 10 20
Hatch 43 60 43 63 / 0 10 10 20
Columbus 43 60 45 65 / 0 10 20 30
Orogrande 45 60 45 64 / 0 10 10 20
Mayhill 32 50 34 49 / 0 10 10 30
Mescalero 30 52 32 52 / 0 10 10 30
Timberon 30 50 31 51 / 0 10 10 30
Winston 28 52 31 54 / 0 0 0 20
Hillsboro 36 56 36 61 / 0 0 0 20
Spaceport 41 58 40 61 / 0 0 0 20
Lake Roberts 23 55 27 59 / 0 0 0 20
Hurley 36 56 37 60 / 0 10 10 20
Cliff 29 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 20
Mule Creek 26 60 31 63 / 0 0 0 20
Faywood 36 57 39 62 / 0 10 10 20
Animas 38 61 37 66 / 0 10 10 20
Hachita 39 60 39 65 / 0 10 10 30
Antelope Wells 40 59 38 63 / 0 20 20 30
Cloverdale 42 56 39 60 / 0 20 20 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
25-Hardiman / 20-Novlan