Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/08/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
922 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 920 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure extending
southward across the Central Plains into the South Plains while upper
level ridging continues to build across the Intermountain West. Near
the surface, a broad surface high is shifting eastward across the high
plains of eastern Montana and eastern Wyoming.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
A gloomy Monday across much of SW Kansas through this afternoon,
as upper trough slowly inches its way into central Kansas. Low
stratus will persist into this evening, except the far western
zones (west of Garden City) where drier air has already allowed
for some sunshine. 12z NAM and HRRR solutions are in good
agreement with wraparound rain affecting the central and eastern
zones this afternoon into the early evening. Did an update earlier
to increase shower coverage to likely in the grids, mainly from
Dodge City eastward, for several hours this afternoon/early
evening. The beginning of this wraparound process is already
evident on KDDC radar imagery, with showers moving due south into
Trego county. More measurable rain expected across roughly the
eastern 1/2 of the CWA through this evening, less than 0.20 inch
at most locales. Might see some isolated lightning SE of Dodge
City this afternoon, but it is unlikely with meager CAPE.
Tonight...Sky will clear progressively from NW to SE as upper
trough departs. Low stratus will persist across the SE zones
including Pratt and Medicine Lodge through sunrise Tuesday. North
winds will remain breezy overnight, as 1035 mb surface high builds
into NW Kansas, with gusts of 25-30 mph at times this evening.
Cool/dry advection and north winds are expected to prevent fog
formation Tuesday morning, even in areas that receive more rain
this afternoon and evening. Lows at sunrise Tuesday ranging from
the mid 30s at Syracuse to near 50 at Kiowa.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
Tuesday...A pleasant fall day for SW KS, with full sun and breezy
north winds, as surface high translates east across Nebraska.
Highs in the lower 60s with north winds of 10-20 mph.
Tuesday night...Finally, the first significant freeze of the
season for much of SW KS. 12z NAM sinks 1033 mb surface high
southward, directly on SW KS sunrise Wednesday. Optimal
radiational cooling expected, and followed the coldest guidance,
well down into the 20s across the NW 1/2 of the CWA. Issued a
freeze watch for these zones, which matches with WFOs Pueblo,
Amarillo, and Wichita. Certainly nothing unusual about a freeze in
mid November, but with the abnormally warm autumn and the growing
season continuing, the freeze headlines are justified. New
12z ECMWF places 1032 mb surface high directly over Dodge City
sunrise Wednesday, so confident 20s will be commmonplace.
It`s a good thing much of SW KS picked up some rain over the
weekend, because another long stretch of dry weather is on the
way. Rex block develops over the southern Rockies on Wednesday,
with a weak closed low burying itself in Far West Texas, and
upper ridging nosing eastward into the central plains. Stellar
fall weather will result, with full sunshine, light winds, and
temperatures near climatology in the lower 60s. This synoptic
pattern will basically hold through Friday, keeping SW KS weather
mild, dry quiet and uneventful. 850 mb temperatures peak on
Thursday, when most of us should reach 70. Far West Texas weak
upper low slowly ejects to the south of SW KS over the coming
weekend, with little if any impact on our weather. Maybe a shower
far SE, but did not include any pops.
12z ECMWF forecasts strongly meridional flow to develop over North
America early next week, with a strong ridge over the Desert SW
and a cold upper low diving into the Great Lakes. The resulting
strong NW flow over Kansas would ensure continued dry weather, and
open the door for possible cold air intrusions from the north.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 504 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
IFR ceilings will continue through the nighttime hours as cool,
low level moisture wraps around the very slow-moving, but
departing upper low pressure system. GCK terminal will likely be
far enough west to prevent any additional IFR ceiling, but DDC and
HYS will likely see IFR through 09-12Z Tuesday. Scattered showers
moving from north to south behind the low will be on the decrease
late this evening. VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of
Tuesday after sunrise.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 41 60 28 62 / 30 10 0 0
GCK 36 61 26 63 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 39 62 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 39 61 27 62 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 41 58 29 62 / 60 10 0 0
P28 50 62 37 63 / 40 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>078-084>087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
526 PM CST MON NOV 7 2016
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
The latest RAP analysis and radar/satellite imagery show high
pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic coast and a cold front
moving east over the northern Mississippi Valley. The cold front is
mostly inactive so far today, with only light returns showing up on
area radars, but no ground truth. Mid and high clouds are
increasing ahead of the front over western Wisconsin. Clouds remain
thin though, so temps are rising close to record highs in a few
locations. As the front moves east tonight, precip chances are the
main forecast concern.
Tonight...The weak cold front will move across the state late this
evening and overnight. Based on 12z RAOBS ahead of the front, the
airmass ahead of the front is quite dry. Stronger forcing does
arrive late tonight when a shortwave strengthens as it digs over
western Lake Superior. So think precip chances will improve through
the night along the front, and will increase chances slightly over
eastern WI. So expect a broken/narrow band of light showers or
sprinkles to move across north-central WI around mid to late
evening, before becoming more solid over northeast WI overnight.
Lows will be warmer than last nights readings thanks to cloud cover,
and range from the low 40s north to near 50 in the east.
Tuesday...The front will be exiting eastern WI late tonight, with
strong mid-level drying occurring behind the front. This should
yield a dry day for most locations. However, shallow low level
moisture will be diving south within thermal troughing at 925mb.
Progged soundings also show steep low level lapse rates under a
fairly strong inversion. So think clouds will scattered to broken
during the morning into early afternoon, before drier air arrives
from the west. Highs cooling off into the upper 40s north to mid
50s south.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
High pressure will bring dry weather and cool temperatures to the
region on Wednesday. Despite the cooler temperatures, highs will
still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year given
the abundant sunshine. As the high tracks east return flow will
bring a return of warm air to the western Great Lakes on Thursday
ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs on Thursday will soar
into the upper 50s to around 60, a good 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for this time of year.
The cold front itself will not pack much of a punch with regards
to precipitation given the extremely limited moisture and its
Pacific origins. However whatever it lacks in moisture it will
make up for in temperatures as 850 mb temperatures tumble from the
middle teens on Thursday, down into the single digits below zero
by Friday. This precipitous dip in temperatures will cause daytime
highs to fall into the 40s Friday and Saturday, with overnight
lows Friday night tumbling into the 20s. Despite these much colder
temperatures, this will only bring temperatures down to
climatological normals for this time of year. There continues to
be a slight chance for showers across the far north on Friday,
however given the limited moisture any showers that form will be
isolated and light in nature.
Return flow in the later half of the weekend will allow
temperatures to rebound into the 50s Sunday and Monday as warmer
air advects into the region. A weak low pressure system is slated
to track through the area sometime early next week, which could
bring a slight chance for showers to the region on Monday. The
weakness of this system and how far out it is in the forecast do
not lend itself to a high degree of confidence in how this system
will evolve. Therefore will stay with the blended model POPs in
the late part of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 526 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
A cold front will move across the region later tonight
and bring scattered showers and a period of MVFR ceilings between
09z and 15z. Skies should clear Tuesday afternoon and remain that
way through Wednesday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
832 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 830 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
Despite the smoke, was a fairly nice day, with highs into the 70s
for the region. With additional cloud cover, tomorrow should be a
few degrees cooler. In addition, model guidance is coming into
better agreement on some rain showers moving into the Ohio River
vicinity just before sunset. Have trended the pops for the daytime
period tomorrow a little higher.
As to the smoke, visibility guidance is not handling the haze well.
Latest Smoke HRRR model for this time has the heaviest
concentrations between SDF and LEX and points northward. Vsby at
SDF/LOU is 7-9 miles and at FFT it`s 6, with LUK checking in at 7.
CVG should be in the bullseye, but they`re checking in at 10 miles.
Have gone with that model to put in some patches of smoke overnight.
Otherwise, matched obs to current conditions and made minor tweaks
to lows.
.Short Term (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
Quiet weather continues tonight with sfc high pressure and upper
ridging still holding influence over the region. With increasing
cloud cover and a southerly flow, temps will be more mild than the
past two nights with lows in the 40s.
For Tuesday, a cold front and upper trough will approach the area
bringing rain showers late in the day on Tues to southern
IN/northern KY and then to the entire area Tues night. A light
rainfall is expected over most of the area Tues night with amounts
ranging from a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch mainly before
midnight.
Temperatures should top out in the mid to upper 60s Tues afternoon
under mostly cloudy skies. Tues night lows should range through the
40s.
.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 250 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
Cooler temps will arrive for Wed in the post-frontal airmass. Think
that a considerable amount of clouds should stick around east of I-
65 for much of the day Wed so leaned toward cooler temp guidance in
this area (highs in the lower 50s). Areas that do see some sunshine
should make it into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees Wed
afternoon.
A good rad cooling night looks to set up for Wed night into Thurs
and could lead to a widespread frost as temps dive into the low to
mid 30s.
A dry forecast looks to stick with us through the beginning of next
week as the Ohio Valley remains void of any moisture despite a late
week trough/cold front passage. The dry cold front should usher in
another good push of cold air Fri night. Sub-freezing temps will be
possible both Sat/Sun mornings with Sun being the coldest morning. A
hard freeze Sun morning certainly looks possible in many locations.
Sat should be the coldest day in the 7 day forecast with highs in
the lower 50s and possibly a few upper 40s.
&&
.Aviation (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 625 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
Smoke from fires to our south and southeast caused a brief
restriction earlier. Latest Smoke HRRR model shows the greatest
concentrations shifting north of the SDF/LEX corridor, and there
should be enough mixy-ness from the approaching cold front to keep
us from getting MVFR vsby overnight. Next up will be increasing
southwest winds ahead of the front during the day Tuesday. The
chances for rains will reach SDF late in its forecast period, as
well as the potential for fuel-alternate cigs.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
308 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
A cold front dropping southeast through the Lower Peninsula today
will be some light rain showers to most areas. Rainfall will be on
the light side from trace amounts to possible around a tenth of an
inch. It will be mainly cloudy today. Tonight it will be cold enough
for some lake effect rain showers towards Lake Michigan. On
Wednesday we should see a decrease in clouds as high pressure builds
in. Thursday will turn windy ahead of another cold front. Highs will
be near seasonal normals for this time of year in the 50s Today,
Wednesday and Thursday. Behind the cold frontal passage that occurs
Thursday night, highs on Friday will cool into the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
Main forecast concerns are in the first couple periods, today and
tonight. Focus is on rain chances today and clouds and lake
generated precipitation tonight.
Latest HRRR experimental composite reflectivity is unimpressive in
regards to rain chances tonight. The band on radar upstream weakens
as it moves into the forecast area today and redevelops off to our
southeast this evening. Essentially have chance pops in the forecast
today, between 30 and 50 percent. Deep layer RH is very narrow and
moves through fairly quick.
Tonight, air will be cold enough from some lake generated clouds for
sure and a few lake effect rain showers in the lakeshore counties.
Only have a 20 pop in the forecast tonight toward the lake as it
looks isolated at best. Clouds will likely hang on in all areas
tonight as model RH progs show widespread moisture in the 925-850mb
layer.
Clearing will occur on Wednesday as a surface high builds in and
warm air advection wipes out the lake clouds. Wednesday night and
Thursday warm air advection continues ahead of an advancing cold
front but we will remain dry.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
A quiet weather pattern is expected during the short term. A dry
cold front will move south across the cwa Thursday night. It`s
possible that a few wet snowflakes could fall across the northern
cwa, but not much more than that. Temperatures Friday and Saturday
will only reach the mid to upper 40s, but then a slow warming trend
will occur with mid 50s expected by Sunday.
A clipper will move across Lake Superior Tuesday. A few showers may
develop in the warm air pattern ahead of it, otherwise this doesn`t
look like a dynamic system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1254 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
National radar mosaic shows light showers moving north toward
Lower Michigan. Models trends indicate that the showers will decay
as they move north. We included light rain and some fog in the
tafs. Look for mostly mvfr conditions today as the pcpn moves
through ahead of a cold front.
Winds will shift to the northwest later this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
No changes made to the current Small Craft Advisory. The SCA goes
into effect this morning as north winds begin to increase behind a
cold front. North winds of 20-30 knots look common from this
afternoon through tonight. Waves will likely peak in the 6 to 9 foot
range. Winds will taper off late tonight and Wednesday morning.
Waves shoud fall below SCA criteria through the course of the
morning hours of Wednesday.
South winds will increase on Thursday ahead of another cold front
and we will likely need another SCA starting Thursday midday. SCA
conditions will persist at least into Friday night as strong north
flow develops once again.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
A Flood Advisory continues for the Maple River at Maple Rapids for
just minor flooding of low lying farmland and wooded areas adjacent
to the river through early Wednesday afternoon. Light rain is
expected on Election Day, but basin-average totals should just be
around a tenth of an inch. The forecast is predominantly dry from
Tuesday evening through the rest of the week. No flooding is
expected.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for LMZ846>849.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to noon EST
Wednesday for LMZ844-845.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Duke
SHORT TERM...Duke
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
331 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
Latest regional radar imagery shows moisture and light rain showers
are being advected northward across MS. The showers are being held
together by a shortwave that is being ejected out of the trough over
the central US. However, as evident in surface observations very
little of the rain on radar is actually making it to the surface and
primarily falling as virga. It is only in the heavier showers that we
are seeing reports of drizzle/light rain. This is due to the
considerable amount dry air from the surface up through about 700mb,
shown in 00Z soundings from OHX/BMX and latest UAH profiler
observations. So, do not believe the showers currently across central
and northern MS will make it much further east past the AL border due
to the tight gradient in surface dewpoints with 50s in MS and lower
40s in AL and the dry air mentioned above.
With that said though there is a batch of heavier showers entering
west central AL and so far it has been holding together. Think that
it will continue to lift NE towards Birmingham but should gradually
weaken with time as it begins to entrain the drier air over AL.
However, will be keeping a close eye on these showers the next few
hours and if they do hold together, we may see some light rain move
into the Huntsville area around sunrise. The shortwave and upper
level energy will lift NE through the area by 12Z per latest
guidance. At which point the lift/forcing to sustain any showers to
our west decreases. At the same time the central US trough begins to
retrograde back towards SW TX. Latest HRRR and other hires guidance
do not appear to be initializing the showers and overall decreasing
trend in showers very well and have trended the near-term forecast
drier compared to what they are generating.
High pressure currently over NC/SC is forecast to shift more SW
and become centered over NE GA by this morning, which should
reinforce the dry air (upper 30s to low 40s dewpoints). Any showers
that do develop over northern MS today and move E/NE into AL will
likely fall as virga. A trough dropping E/SE through the Upper
Midwest region will move through into OH Valley later today.
Temperatures are expected to be cooler today due to mostly cloudy
skies. Afternoon highs should top out around the 70 degree mark.
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
Expect the surface high over NE GA to gradually weaken throughout
the day and winds at the surface and mid-levels shift to a more W/SW
direction. This should allow for some recovery in surface and mid-
level moisture immediately ahead of a cold front. Unfortunately,
latest model guidance continues to paint a grim picture in terms of
rainfall as any moisture returning to the area may be too little too
late. The GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM have all come in drier as the front moves
through the region tonight. Hires ARM/NMM and SREF guidance are not
quite as dry and still bring a few isolated/scattered light showers
through the region tonight.
With all of the upper level forcing remaining to our NE the only
forcing associated with the front and any lift will be taking place
in a still relatively dry air mass. So, the solutions of very little
rain seem valid but have opted to keep a slight chance of showers as
the front moves through tonight. Any precip that does move through
should clear the area by sunrise Wednesday.
A strong pressure gradient will be over the area as the upper level
trough axis swings through the area during the day Wednesday and
result in a breezy day. With good CAA occurring behind the front
temps Wednesday afternoon are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s
for highs. Given the continued dry conditions and little rainfall
expected the increased winds may be a concern for fire weather on
Wednesday. The cooler temps should limit the dewpoint depressions and
limit overall spread potential but the winds are still a concern.
Dewpoints drop down to the low to mid 30s Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. A surface high settles in over MO/AR during this
period resulting in winds becoming light and skies clearing out
Wednesday night. This should provide good radiational cooling and
it`s possible we could see the first widespread frost for the TN
Valley so far this Fall. Would not be surprised to see a few of the
cooler spots around the area drop to the freezing mark by Thursday
morning. Upper level heights begin to increase throughout the day
Thursday and temps should warm a degree or so from Wednesdays values.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
The start of the long term period will see a continuation of above
normal temperatures. The upper ridge axis will slide east across the
area late Thursday and then flatten during the day Friday as an
upper level trough moves east across the Great Lakes region. Zonal
flow aloft, along with mostly clear skies will help temps warm into
upper 60s to lower 70s. Fortunately, it looks like we will see a
break from these warmer temps and return to more fall like
conditions for the weekend.
The axis of the aforementioned upper trough will amplify and dig
southward on Saturday, as a fairly strong high pressure system
builds in from Canada. This will send a reinforcing shot of colder
air across the TN Valley, with highs on Saturday barely making it
out of the upper 50s across the east and remaining in the lower 60s
across the west. As we move into the overnight hours, the high will
become centered across Middle Tennessee. Mostly clear skies and calm
winds will provide very good radiational cooling and temperatures
will approach the freezing mark for our TN counties and cool into
the mid 30s elsewhere. This setup supports the potential for
widespread frost conditions on Sunday, as our dewpoints dip into the
20s. We will warm rather quickly during the day Sunday as upper
level ridging builds back across the area. So, the near seasonal
temperatures will be short lived, with temperatures warming back into
the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday and Monday. The remainder of
the extended period is highly uncertain given the lack of model
consistency.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
An upper ridge will continue across the cwa overnight. Also the 00z
u/a soundings from OHX and BMX are showing a fairly dry atmosphere
as well. This combo will keep the rain to the west of the taf sites
for the rest of tonight. For Tuesday, models still are not showing
much pcpn across the taf sites, if they get any at all. Thus for now
will not include any pcpn in tafs. Otherwise expect vfr conditions
for both KMSL and KHSV thru the fcst period.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Stumpf
SHORT TERM...Stumpf
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...007
For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
333 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
The upper level and low-level ridge axis is now located just to the
east of the area with southerly to southeasterly winds just off the
surface. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis
depicts the ridge stretching from the Southern Appalchians northward
into the Northeastern U.S. Further to the northwest, there is a
trough diving southeastward across the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front stretches from
the Upper Mississippi River Valley southward into the Southern
Plains ahead of the approaching trough. Currently across the
forecast area, temperatures vary a good bit once again depending on
if a light wind is observed or not. As of 2am, temperatures vary
from mid 30s to lower 50s. Once again, there could be a few
locations of isolated patchy frost in the cooler valleys of SW NC,
SW VA, and NE TN. The lack of any significant mixing is causing
some areas of smoke near wildfires and expect this will continue
into the day today with dry conditions and light winds forecast to
continue.
For today, the upper level ridge will continue to break down as the
trough to the northwest races across the Great Lakes region into the
Ohio River Valley. Mid to high clouds will increase ahead of this
approaching system as moisture values slowly increase across the
region. Above normal temperatures will continue once again with
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for most valley locations. The
cold front will approach the area late in the day but moisture will
still remain limited with a narrow tongue of higher PW values along
the frontal boundary. Therefore, expect any rain across the forecast
area will hold off until tonight.
For tonight, PW values will increase to around 0.8-1.0 inches in a
narrow band ahead of the cold front. These values are around the
75th percentile for early November. In addition, the cold front will
move across the area quickly as the trough speeds across the Ohio
River Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard. Therefore, there will be a
brief window for light precipitation tonight with the best timing
coming between 06-12z Wednesday. The best chances will be across
SW VA and NE TN where the lift from the upper system will be the
strongest. Unfortunately, the most drought stricken region across
the Southern Valley will have the lowest precip. chances and may
miss out completely. Rain chances will come to a quick end on
Wednesday as the front exits the forecast area. Cooler air will
push in behind the system with daytime highs slightly below normal
on Wednesday. Once again, the rainfall amounts forecast will make
no impact on the ongoing drought. The higher values will be across
SW VA and extreme NE TN where a tenth of an inch would be on the
high side of expected values.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Monday)...
At the beginning of this period, the upper trough will be past us
to the east, leaving us in the southwestern edge of an upper NW
flow. At the surface, high pressure is building into the area
behind the already passed cold front. By Friday night into Saturday
morning a clipper system sweeps into the area in the NW flow...but
as has been the case lately, it is moisture-starved, and may offer
little if any precip for the area. This will also, push in a
reinforcing cold front that will bring in some of the coolest air
of the season, but it will only get readings slightly below our
normal seasonal temperatures. Looks like a good bet for the
freezing conditions Saturday night in NE Tennessee and southwest
Virginia, the mountains, as well as parts of southwest North
Carolina. This will be the first freeze for most of these areas.
Went at least a category below Sunday night Min Temp, as surface
ridge looks like it will still have a hold on the area, with light
winds and dry air still in place. Also, in the last 3 periods, went
below guidance POPs, resulting in no POPs for Sun night and Monday,
and only minimal POPs for SW North Carolina,up through the Smokies
Monday night. This is based on being away from main lift and deeper
moisture as well as drought conditions continuing to stifle precip
chances.
For Fire Weather concerns...can`t get rid of the threat with this
forecast--winds never get all that strong, but RH values continue to
fall each afternoon. Thursday looks like dry RHs, Saturday post-
frontal breeze and moderately low RH values keep the threat going,
and on Sunday lighter winds but lower RHs keep it going as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 51 64 43 / 0 20 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 49 58 39 / 0 40 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 72 49 58 38 / 0 40 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 45 53 36 / 0 60 30 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
MA/GM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
301 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
A cold front will move southeast across our region this afternoon
and evening, accompanied by scattered showers. A pre-frontal band
of light rain showers has already moved into western Kentucky
from the south early this morning. This area of light showers is
forecast by the hrrr and rap to gradually move east of our region
late this morning. Pops today will remain in the chance category,
with the highest chances occurring along the front across
southwest Indiana and southern Illinois late this afternoon.
Rainfall will be less than one tenth inch. Highs will be in the
60s. In the wake of the front, clearing will occur late tonight.
Lows will be from 40 to 45.
On Wednesday, a 1030 mb surface high will move southeast to
Missouri by late in the day. Cooler north winds will result in
highs around 60 degrees. Some lingering clouds in the morning
should give way to sunny skies in the afternoon.
The surface ridge will crest over our region Wednesday night. The
radiational cooling setup will be nearly ideal. Forecasts and
model guidance have been too warm on clear and calm nights the
past few weeks. Forecast lows will be in the mid to upper 30s,
however it is quite possible some outlying areas will dip below
freezing. Areas of frost are likely.
Sunny skies and southwest winds on the back side of the high will
result in a bit of a warming trend Thursday. Highs will be in the
mid 60s. Winds will be light, which will be helpful in limiting
the wildfire danger. However, fuels are likely to dry out rather
quickly due to low rh and lack of significant rainfall the past
month.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
Generally used the last 2 runs of the EC with the 12z ECENS, and 00z
GFS for the forecast. Cold front to move through dry early Friday,
with strong high pressure settling south in the front`s wake for
Saturday through Sunday as it tracks from the Ohio Valley and
Midwest to the southeast U.S. Dry weather will be the rule. We may
see a freeze Sunday morning. Colder bias corrected values bringing
temps down seems reasonable given long term guidance not cold enough
with recent events. MEX was closest to bias incorporated values.
Dry weather will continue Monday with slightly warmer
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1144 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
Lower VFR clouds decks/ceilings infiltrating from the south into
the WFO PAH TAF sites. Had to consider lower ceilings from midday
to mid-evening on Tuesday, as some of the model guidance saturates
the lower layers more robustly. This may be overdone, but had to
consider the trend toward a little slower passage of the cold
front through the WFO PAH TAF sites.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
358 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
09z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis show an amplified upper level
pattern over North America this morning. A strong Pacific northern
stream jet parallels the Pacific northwest coast before arriving
over the BC coastline. This jet is being shoved well to the north
into Canada by pronounced mid/upper level ridging in control from
California through much of the inter-mountain west and northward
into the southern Canadian Rockies. Northern stream flow rounds
the top of the ridge before heading back south into longwave
troughing across central Canada and the central plains states.
This feature is about to undergo a "trough fracture" as stronger
and more progressive shortwave energy toward the poleward section
of the trough leaves the energy over the central plains behind to
close off into an upper low and retrograde westward over the
desert SW during the coming days. The stronger shortwave energy
over south- central Canada at the same time will amplify
southeastward over the eastern conus...and break down the upper
ridge that is currently in place over the Florid Peninsula and up
the eastern seaboard. This feature has given some of the global
models issues in the past several days related to exact amplitude
and progression. Small run to run differences...especially in
amplitude have proven significant in terms of impacts on the
weather over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/west-central FL during the
next 48 hours. The global and regional guidance have finally come
into pretty good agreement on the synoptic nature of this feature
and given better confidence to the short term forecast. There had
been some potential (if the amplitude was greater than now
expected) for a warm frontal feature and enough available moisture
to reach the west coast of Florida to bring a swath of
rain/showers into at least the Nature coast late tonight into
Wednesday. The way things are looking now...this potential...at
least for any significant shower activity has diminished.
At the surface...Continental high pressure is centered over
GA/Carolinas early this morning with ridging extending southward
over the entire FL peninsula. The flow around this high is providing
a light/moderate easterly flow across the region. The winds are
quite light right now over the landmass as would be expected with
the nocturnal cooling boundary layer...however winds are more
defined above the BL..and will quickly begin to mix down once we
get a couple hours of diurnal mixing later this morning. Where
these winds are currently mixing down is over the relatively
warmer surface waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Winds across
the marine area reaching cautionary to advisory levels at times
away from the immediate coast. Buoy 42036 has been consistently
gusting between 20-25 knots with seas now approaching 7 feet.
Early morning temperatures are seasonable with readings dropping
into the 50s inland...and warmer 60s near immediate coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
The Florida peninsula will remain under the control of mid/upper
level ridging aloft and under the control of 1025mb surface high
pressure off to the north. The low level synoptic pattern will
keep a steady E-NE wind going across the peninsula today. The
moisture arriving with this flow off the Atlantic is rather
shallow...but can not rule out an isolated sprinkle reaching
places like the Villages or Levy/Citrus counties this afternoon.
These would be isolated sprinkles and unlikely to even measure.
Elsewhere...kept all mention of rain out of the forecast...with
partly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures (perhaps running a
couple of degrees above normal).
During the overnight tonight...the upper level amplification
talked about in the synopsis above will dig into the eastern part
of the country...with the trough axis reaching the spine of the
Appaliachains by dawn Wednesday. Increasing large scale ascent on
the southern periphery of the height falls...along with
strengthening jet energy over the southeastern states will support
a slow migration eastward of surface troughing currently in place
across the north-central Gulf of Mexico. After midnight...a weak
warm frontal structure will likely exist across the NE Gulf of
Mexico with associated weak...but deep layer upglide slowly
moistening the column over the NE Gulf and Nature Coast zones.
Current thinking is that the majority of the shower activity that
is forced by this process will stay over the waters of the Gulf.
However...generally speaking NWP is under-aggressive with
isentropic upglide...and therefore can not rule out a few showers
reaching our Nature Coast zones to the north of Tampa Bay. Not
going to be a big deal either way...and only have a 20% PoP after
06Z...with very light QPF. Elsewhere from Tampa to Polk county and
southward...although clouds will be on the increase...no showers
are expected.
Finally for Wednesday...may still have a few isolated showers
during the morning along the Nature coast...but similar to the
overnight forecast...most of the showers will be over the Gulf.
With time...NWP in good agreement that as the influence of the
upper trough passes east of the region...the surface trough will
sink slowly southward...with a decrease in structure and ability
to support showers near the Florida west coast.
Overall...Wednesday is looking like a mostly dry day...but also a
mostly cloudy day for the majority of our region. The clouds
should keep temps a few degrees cooler than today. The column
moisture and associated clouds will begin to clear from north to
south starting late Wednesday afternoon or evening up toward Levy
County and then continuing southward through Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.
&&
MID/LONG TERM (Thursday through next Monday)...
At the start of the forecast period, upper trough will move off into
the eastern Atlantic with widespread subsidence moving into the
region during the day Thursday. Cloud cover will quickly decrease
throughout the day with mostly clear skies expected areawide by the
afternoon. Dry and seasonal weather will continue into the weekend
with ample sunshine expected. Models do show another frontal
boundary pushing through the area during the weekend with moisture
appearing limited at this time. GFS/ECMWF differ on how quickly
winds become NE again across the area, which would have an impact a
bit on temps so for now a blend between the two should suffice.
At the very end of the forecast period, GFS and ECMWF again differ
with the GFS suggesting another reinforcing shot of cooler and drier
weather compared to a much wetter Euro solution. For now, will at
least include chance showers in the forecast until greater model
certainty exists. Temps throughout the period look to remain near
seasonal norms.
&&
.AVIATION (08/06Z through 09/06Z)...
VFR will prevail at all terminal sites during the next 24 hours.
Periods of sct-bkn cigs around 5kft can be expected at times, but
generally nothing lower. East to northeast winds in the 4 to 7
knot range through early morning increase back to around 10 knots
with some higher gusts after 15Z. Expect winds to decrease once
again and become less gusty with sunset by 00Z this evening.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure remains in control of the coastal waters through
today. Elevated winds to cautionary levels near shore and advisory
levels offshore early this morning will diminish during the later
morning hours. Easterly winds will increase once again this
evening...however...wind speeds are generally expected to remain
at or just below 15 knots. Winds and seas are then expected to
remain below headline criteria through Friday. Another potential
for advisory level winds will arrive with a cold front later
Saturday or Saturday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire weather concerns expected the next several
days. High pressure in control of the region today will briefly
weaken and loose influence on the region for Wednesday...before
renewed high pressure takes back control of the region for the end
of the week. Relative humidity values are expected to remain
generally above critical levels. Dispersion indices will be
elevated today...but then significantly decrease for the daylight
hours of Wednesday.
Fog potential...no significant fog or visibility concerns are
anticipated through the next several days.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 82 65 77 63 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 82 62 81 65 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 81 61 79 61 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 81 64 79 64 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 81 60 77 56 / 0 10 10 10
SPG 80 67 77 66 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
FL out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Synopsis/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...Mroczka
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...McKaughan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
729 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
A cold front dropping southeast through the Lower Peninsula today
will be some light rain showers to most areas. Rainfall will be on
the light side from trace amounts to possible around a tenth of an
inch. It will be mainly cloudy today. Tonight it will be cold enough
for some lake effect rain showers towards Lake Michigan. On
Wednesday we should see a decrease in clouds as high pressure builds
in. Thursday will turn windy ahead of another cold front. Highs will
be near seasonal normals for this time of year in the 50s Today,
Wednesday and Thursday. Behind the cold frontal passage that occurs
Thursday night, highs on Friday will cool into the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
Main forecast concerns are in the first couple periods, today and
tonight. Focus is on rain chances today and clouds and lake
generated precipitation tonight.
Latest HRRR experimental composite reflectivity is unimpressive in
regards to rain chances tonight. The band on radar upstream weakens
as it moves into the forecast area today and redevelops off to our
southeast this evening. Essentially have chance pops in the forecast
today, between 30 and 50 percent. Deep layer RH is very narrow and
moves through fairly quick.
Tonight, air will be cold enough from some lake generated clouds for
sure and a few lake effect rain showers in the lakeshore counties.
Only have a 20 pop in the forecast tonight toward the lake as it
looks isolated at best. Clouds will likely hang on in all areas
tonight as model RH progs show widespread moisture in the 925-850mb
layer.
Clearing will occur on Wednesday as a surface high builds in and
warm air advection wipes out the lake clouds. Wednesday night and
Thursday warm air advection continues ahead of an advancing cold
front but we will remain dry.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
A quiet weather pattern is expected during the short term. A dry
cold front will move south across the cwa Thursday night. It`s
possible that a few wet snowflakes could fall across the northern
cwa, but not much more than that. Temperatures Friday and Saturday
will only reach the mid to upper 40s, but then a slow warming trend
will occur with mid 50s expected by Sunday.
A clipper will move across Lake Superior Tuesday. A few showers may
develop in the warm air pattern ahead of it, otherwise this doesn`t
look like a dynamic system.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 724 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
A band of light rain will work southeast through the TAF sites
today, with limited affect on visibility. VFR weather is occurring
area wide at 12z. Some MVFR ceilings are expected near and in the
wake of the front for a period of 3-6 hours this afternoon and
early evening (from about 17z through 00z). Winds will shift from
southwest this morning to northwest this afternoon. Some gusts to
around 20 mph are expected this afternoon.
Tonight, there may be a few lake effect rain showers at KMKG, but
they should be light and not affect visibility. Current thinking
is we will stay VFR tonight, but we will need to watch for the
MVFR ceilings lingering into tonight which some model guidance is
suggesting. Went more optimistic given northerly flow off the high
ground of Northern Lower Michigan.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
No changes made to the current Small Craft Advisory. The SCA goes
into effect this morning as north winds begin to increase behind a
cold front. North winds of 20-30 knots look common from this
afternoon through tonight. Waves will likely peak in the 6 to 9 foot
range. Winds will taper off late tonight and Wednesday morning.
Waves should fall below SCA criteria through the course of the
morning hours of Wednesday.
South winds will increase on Thursday ahead of another cold front
and we will likely need another SCA starting Thursday midday. SCA
conditions will persist at least into Friday night as strong north
flow develops once again.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 318 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
A Flood Advisory continues for the Maple River at Maple Rapids for
just minor flooding of low lying farmland and wooded areas adjacent
to the river through early Wednesday afternoon. Light rain is
expected on Election Day, but basin-average totals should just be
around a tenth of an inch. The forecast is predominantly dry from
Tuesday evening through the rest of the week. No flooding is
expected.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for LMZ846>849.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to noon EST
Wednesday for LMZ844-845.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Duke
SHORT TERM...Duke
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...Duke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
533 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
.UPDATE...
For 12Z TAFS.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
Latest regional radar imagery shows moisture and light rain showers
are being advected northward across MS. The showers are being held
together by a shortwave that is being ejected out of the trough over
the central US. However, as evident in surface observations very
little of the rain on radar is actually making it to the surface and
primarily falling as virga. It is only in the heavier showers that we
are seeing reports of drizzle/light rain. This is due to the
considerable amount dry air from the surface up through about 700mb,
shown in 00Z soundings from OHX/BMX and latest UAH profiler
observations. So, do not believe the showers currently across central
and northern MS will make it much further east past the AL border due
to the tight gradient in surface dewpoints with 50s in MS and lower
40s in AL and the dry air mentioned above.
With that said though there is a batch of heavier showers entering
west central AL and so far it has been holding together. Think that
it will continue to lift NE towards Birmingham but should gradually
weaken with time as it begins to entrain the drier air over AL.
However, will be keeping a close eye on these showers the next few
hours and if they do hold together, we may see some light rain move
into the Huntsville area around sunrise. The shortwave and upper
level energy will lift NE through the area by 12Z per latest
guidance. At which point the lift/forcing to sustain any showers to
our west decreases. At the same time the central US trough begins to
retrograde back towards SW TX. Latest HRRR and other hires guidance
do not appear to be initializing the showers and overall decreasing
trend in showers very well and have trended the near-term forecast
drier compared to what they are generating.
High pressure currently over NC/SC is forecast to shift more SW
and become centered over NE GA by this morning, which should
reinforce the dry air (upper 30s to low 40s dewpoints). Any showers
that do develop over northern MS today and move E/NE into AL will
likely fall as virga. A trough dropping E/SE through the Upper
Midwest region will move through into OH Valley later today.
Temperatures are expected to be cooler today due to mostly cloudy
skies. Afternoon highs should top out around the 70 degree mark.
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
Expect the surface high over NE GA to gradually weaken throughout
the day and winds at the surface and mid-levels shift to a more W/SW
direction. This should allow for some recovery in surface and mid-
level moisture immediately ahead of a cold front. Unfortunately,
latest model guidance continues to paint a grim picture in terms of
rainfall as any moisture returning to the area may be too little too
late. The GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM have all come in drier as the front moves
through the region tonight. Hires ARM/NMM and SREF guidance are not
quite as dry and still bring a few isolated/scattered light showers
through the region tonight.
With all of the upper level forcing remaining to our NE the only
forcing associated with the front and any lift will be taking place
in a still relatively dry air mass. So, the solutions of very little
rain seem valid but have opted to keep a slight chance of showers as
the front moves through tonight. Any precip that does move through
should clear the area by sunrise Wednesday.
A strong pressure gradient will be over the area as the upper level
trough axis swings through the area during the day Wednesday and
result in a breezy day. With good CAA occurring behind the front
temps Wednesday afternoon are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s
for highs. Given the continued dry conditions and little rainfall
expected the increased winds may be a concern for fire weather on
Wednesday. The cooler temps should limit the dewpoint depressions and
limit overall spread potential but the winds are still a concern.
Dewpoints drop down to the low to mid 30s Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. A surface high settles in over MO/AR during this
period resulting in winds becoming light and skies clearing out
Wednesday night. This should provide good radiational cooling and
it`s possible we could see the first widespread frost for the TN
Valley so far this Fall. Would not be surprised to see a few of the
cooler spots around the area drop to the freezing mark by Thursday
morning. Upper level heights begin to increase throughout the day
Thursday and temps should warm a degree or so from Wednesdays values.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
The start of the long term period will see a continuation of above
normal temperatures. The upper ridge axis will slide east across the
area late Thursday and then flatten during the day Friday as an
upper level trough moves east across the Great Lakes region. Zonal
flow aloft, along with mostly clear skies will help temps warm into
upper 60s to lower 70s. Fortunately, it looks like we will see a
break from these warmer temps and return to more fall like
conditions for the weekend.
The axis of the aforementioned upper trough will amplify and dig
southward on Saturday, as a fairly strong high pressure system
builds in from Canada. This will send a reinforcing shot of colder
air across the TN Valley, with highs on Saturday barely making it
out of the upper 50s across the east and remaining in the lower 60s
across the west. As we move into the overnight hours, the high will
become centered across Middle Tennessee. Mostly clear skies and calm
winds will provide very good radiational cooling and temperatures
will approach the freezing mark for our TN counties and cool into
the mid 30s elsewhere. This setup supports the potential for
widespread frost conditions on Sunday, as our dewpoints dip into the
20s. We will warm rather quickly during the day Sunday as upper
level ridging builds back across the area. So, the near seasonal
temperatures will be short lived, with temperatures warming back into
the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday and Monday. The remainder of
the extended period is highly uncertain given the lack of model
consistency.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
High pressure across NE GA will keep winds out of the east and allow
for dry air to continue to stream into the region. The light rain
across western TN/northern MS isn`t making it to the surface due to
the amount of dry air. CIGS will gradually lower this afternoon as
moisture begins to overtake the drier air. Confidence remains too low
for any showers to move over the terminals and have kept precip out
of the TAFs.
A low pressure system and cold front will move through the region
between 04Z and 12Z tonight/Wed. morning switching the wind direction
to the north. CIGS continue to lower down to around 5,000ft as the
front moves through. Some guidance is suggesting a brief period of
MVFR cigs possible right at the end of the current TAF period.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Stumpf
SHORT TERM...Stumpf
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Stumpf
For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1040 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area late this afternoon into tonight,
producing widespread showers. High pressure and a dry airmass will
follow for Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front will push
through on Friday, ushering in cooler temperatures for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Pre-frontal precipitation is approaching the fa a little quicker
than earlier forecasts. The pcpn is coming in as two different
features. The first is from nrn Indiana and is working into West
Central Ohio. This is 2-3 hours quicker than previously thought.
Adjusted the forecast to speed up this timing. The second area is
lifting ne from srn IN and nrn KY. This area has only been picked
up by the RAP and HRRR on the last couple of runs. It looks like
the pcpn will work into the Tri-State over the next few hours and
will gradually combine with the pcpn coming in from the nw.
Didn`t adjust the highs, as they still look like they will range
from the upper 50s in the northwest to the upper 60s for the
southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front will be pushing into the area from the northwest early
tonight. Models continue to show that a band of showers will
develop along the front and spread across the central Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes late this evening, so kept categorical pops.
Thunderstorms are not expected in an environment containing only
about 25 J/KG cape. Models indicate rainfall amounts ranging from
a tenth to a quarter of an inch.
Showers will end after midnight as a sharpening upper trough
pushes the cold front rapidly eastward. A large area of high
pressure will follow the front, bringing dry weather back for
Wednesday through Thursday.
Temperatures will drop under cold advection and persistent cloud
cover behind the front, with highs reaching the lower 50s on
Wednesday. Abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to rebound
into the upper 50s on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong short wave will drop southeast through the Great Lakes on
Friday which will push a cold front through the region. Moisture is
quite limited, so this front should come through dry. High pressure
will build in for the weekend and move off to the southeast on
Monday. Temperatures will be slightly above normal ahead of the
front. There will be a brief cool down behind the front, but
readings will rebound back to slightly above normal early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level shortwave trough to dig southeast across the Great
Lakes and Ohio valley today/early Wed. Associated surface cold
front to drop southeast across the TAF sites early this evening.
Ahead of this front high level clouds have overspread the region
early this morning. The airmass across the region is starting out
dry and will begin to moisten up through the day ahead of the
approaching cold front. Model solutions continue to show an
initial short wave, which will move across the Ohio Valley during
the afternoon. This feature could produce a few sprinkles or
light rain showers by afternoon and have handled this with a
mention of VCSH. More widespread shower activity associated with
the cold front is expected to work southeast across the area
during the late afternoon into early evening. CIGS are expected
to drop into MVFR category with the front and some MVFR vsby
restrictions will also be possible with the precipitation. MVFR
cigs are expected to persist tonight with the upper level trough
lagging.
OUTLOOK...Some MVFR cigs will be possible early Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
620 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
Based on the latest 06z nam and gfs qpf, updated the forecast to
raise pops into the likely category for southwest IN and northwest
KY this afternoon and evening. The mos pops from the nam and gfs
have been likely to categorical there. The reason for the higher
precip amounts in that area appears to be its closer proximity to
the digging 500 mb shortwave over the Great Lakes region. Some temps
were raised slightly today to account for the mild start to the day,
and the latest short-term consensus guidance was above our forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
A cold front will move southeast across our region this afternoon
and evening, accompanied by scattered showers. A pre-frontal band
of light rain showers has already moved into western Kentucky
from the south early this morning. This area of light showers is
forecast by the hrrr and rap to gradually move east of our region
late this morning. Pops today will remain in the chance category,
with the highest chances occurring along the front across
southwest Indiana and southern Illinois late this afternoon.
Rainfall will be less than one tenth inch. Highs will be in the
60s. In the wake of the front, clearing will occur late tonight.
Lows will be from 40 to 45.
On Wednesday, a 1030 mb surface high will move southeast to
Missouri by late in the day. Cooler north winds will result in
highs around 60 degrees. Some lingering clouds in the morning
should give way to sunny skies in the afternoon.
The surface ridge will crest over our region Wednesday night. The
radiational cooling setup will be nearly ideal. Forecasts and
model guidance have been too warm on clear and calm nights the
past few weeks. Forecast lows will be in the mid to upper 30s,
however it is quite possible some outlying areas will dip below
freezing. Areas of frost are likely.
Sunny skies and southwest winds on the back side of the high will
result in a bit of a warming trend Thursday. Highs will be in the
mid 60s. Winds will be light, which will be helpful in limiting
the wildfire danger. However, fuels are likely to dry out rather
quickly due to low rh and lack of significant rainfall the past
month.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
Generally used the last 2 runs of the EC with the 12z ECENS, and 00z
GFS for the forecast. Cold front to move through dry early Friday,
with strong high pressure settling south in the front`s wake for
Saturday through Sunday as it tracks from the Ohio Valley and
Midwest to the southeast U.S. Dry weather will be the rule. We may
see a freeze Sunday morning. Colder bias corrected values bringing
temps down seems reasonable given long term guidance not cold enough
with recent events. MEX was closest to bias incorporated values.
Dry weather will continue Monday with slightly warmer
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 540 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the morning, even in scattered
light showers. A cold front will move southeast across the taf sites
early this evening. A band of scattered to numerous showers will
precede and accompany the front, mainly from mid afternoon through
early evening. Occasional MVFR conditions are expected in and near
these showers. A brief period of IFR conditions cannot be ruled out
in the kevv/kowb areas, but the chance is too low to include in the
tafs. Following the passage of the front, winds will become
northwest and then north tonight around 5 knots. Skies will become
mainly clear overnight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MY
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...MY
Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold
front moving over lower Michigan early this afternoon. Strong cold
advection is occurring behind the front, and helping to support
widespread low clouds over north-central to eastern WI. Some
erosion of the clouds is likely to occur during the rest of the
afternoon from west to east as drier air arrives. Looking upstream,
another large area of high pressure resides over the Great Plains
with clear skies. Forecast concerns revolve around cloud trends
tonight, and temps on Wednesday.
Tonight...Clouds will likely hang on across eastern WI into the
evening due to flow off Lake Superior and thermal troughing.
Thereafter, high pressure will gradually build in from the northern
Plains. Another very dry airmass will accompany this surface high,
so should see clear skies and diminishing winds. Patchy fog looks
possible in the cold spots of n-c WI late as winds turn calm. Lows
look to fall into the 20s at these cold spots, but remain in the
30s elsewhere.
Wednesday...The high pressure system will slide across the area
bringing sunny conditions. Highs will range from the low to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
A very warm airmass ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday
will allow daytime highs to soar to around 60 across the area
during the afternoon hours with abundant sunshine given the lack
of appreciable moisture available to the cold front. The cold
front itself will track through during the late afternoon hours,
causing 850 mb temperatures to plummet from the mid teens, to the
single digits below zero later Thursday night into Friday,
representing a 15 to 20 degree drop. This will plunge highs on
Friday into the 40s, which is actually right around normal for
this time of year. Despite the passage of a cold front the chance
for precipitation will be too low to include any pops in this
forecast as moisture is hard to come by, even with the boost
afforded by the Great Lakes.
Temperatures begin to rebound during the weekend as return flow
brings warmer temperatures back to the western Great Lakes and
temperatures rise back to above normal levels. A weak cold front
will track through the region on Monday, with low enough pops to
leave the forecast dry with its passage. The push of cold air
behind this front will be very weak, therefore a significant drop
in temperatures is not expected from this front. A stronger front
is forecast to track through on Tuesday. This front will have a
bit better moisture and dynamics, however given this system will
also have Pacific origins pops will still only be in the chancy
category. Overall there is little evidence that our streak of near
or above normal temperatures will abate in the near term.
&&
.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
Behind a departing cold front, gusty northwest winds
will continue into late this afternoon or early this evening across
the taf sites. Low vfr or high mvfr cloud cover will likely be
broken through mid afternoon until drier air moves in from the west.
Thereafter, cigs should gradually rise as broken conditions become
scattered from west to east. Once the clouds depart, looking at
mostly clear conditions with light winds at all taf sites from early
or mid evening through Wednesday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......MPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
539 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 218 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
A cold front will move through central Indiana this evening and
Canadian high pressure will build in behind it bringing dry
weather and cooler temperatures for the rest of the week.
Temperatures will moderate on Sunday and small chances for rain
will return Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /This evening and Tonight/...
Issued at 218 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
Radar mosaic shows showers across much of central Indiana, with
southeastern parts still awaiting the arrival of the rain. A cold
front was making its way into northwestern parts of central
Indiana and looks to move through the area during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Visible satellite shows clear skies a
bit upstream in northern and northwestern Illinois in the wake of
the frontal passage.
RAP and HRRR are doing a pretty good job capturing the extent and
movement of the rain, and generally used a consensus of short term
solutions to produce the timing on pops for the rest of the
afternoon and evening into tonight. Good model agreement that
everything is out of the area between 4 and 6z, with a couple
solutions even faster. Used this same consensus approach for lows
tonight in the low 40s with skies clearing across the southwest.
May see some lake produced clouds across the northeastern counties
tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...
Issued at 218 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
The leading edge of an upper ridge will hold sway over the area
through the short term, allowing for dry weather to control the
area. Cooler temperatures will advect in on northwesterly flow,
but models are in good agreement on this pattern and the
superblend initialization matched up well. Look for high
temperatures in the 50s (with upper 50s to lower 60s on
Thursday), and lows in the 30s with freezing possible Friday night
and Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 216 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
The potential for the first freeze of the year will be the highlight
of the extended.
Models and ensembles in better agreement on the extended regarding
timing and strength of various upper troughs and fronts.
The long term will start off with the potential for the first freeze
of the year Friday night as strong Canadian high pressure builds in
in the wake of a sharp upper trough. The regional blend has been
consistently forecasting lows in the lower to mid 30s, and see no
reason to make an changes. With the high not passing to the
southeast until late Saturday, it will be a cool day with highs in
the upper 40s to lower 50s per the blend looking good. Some areas
may again see a freeze Saturday night with clear skies continuing.
Southwest flow around the departing high and more sunshine will
allow temperatures to recover on Sunday with highs in the mid and
upper 50s. A broad upper trough will bring a few more clouds in
Sunday night into Monday. The 00z and 12z ECMWF even bring some qpf
to the area. Prefer to keep it dry for now per persistence and the
blend. Finally, upper trough in northwest flow, a cold front and
sufficient moisture could bring a few showers to the area Tuesday.
Will accept the low blend pops. Southwest low level flow ahead of
the front should boost temperatures back into the lower 60s most
locales. Normal high temperatures for the middle of November are in
the lower and mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 090000Z TAFS/...
Issued at 539 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
Cold front expected to pass through the KLAF terminal around
issuance time, and should pass through the remainder of the
terminals by 090500Z. Some areas of IFR ceilings observed in
the pre frontal zone, along with some light rain and drizzle,
so these conditions may affect the KHUF/KIND/KBMG terminals from
time to time this evening until frontal passage.
Conditions should improve rapidly after frontal passage, although
some moisture flowing off of Lake Michigan may result in some
cloud cover based 030-040 overnight in the KLAF/KIND vicinity.
Surface winds 250-280 degrees at 6-9 kts will veer around to
330-350 degrees at 8-12 kts after frontal passage. Surface gusts
18-20 kts possible for a few hours in the immediate post frontal
zone.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
349 PM CST Tue Nov 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Have broken out a late this afternoon zone grouping in the suite
of forecast products to detail radar mosiac imagery of light
showers spreading across the mid state now and consensus of short
range model solutions showing progression thru the remainder of
the late this afternoon hours. Latest HRRR model solutions
detailing this best, although most of the light shwrs that the
mid state is experiencing this afternoon, although from sfc obs
and regional laps sounding imagery questions to arise on how much
of this light rainfall is actually making it to the ground, as the
weak positive tilted upper level trough swings across the mid
state region tonight, along with the sfc front possibly pushing
into the region late evening, enough additional low level moisture
pooling aided by weak instability and lifting mechanisms, could
support a redevelopment of light shwrs, with a swath of light
rainfall approaching the Land Between the Lakes Region and
locations across northern mid state near the TN/KY border just
ahead of the sfc frontal passage around 09/03Z, and then swinging
sewd into the mid state and exiting the Cumberland Plateau Region
by around 09/09Z, as nwly flow aloft and building ridging
influences from the Midwest begin to influence the mid state`s
weather pattern later tonight. For those locations experiencing
rainfall, rainfall amounts are not expected to be greater than one
tenth of an inch thru tonight. This nwly upper level flow and sfc
ridging influences pattern will result in decreasing cloudiness as
the Wed morning progresses, keeping the mid state dry thru the
remainder of the work week. Another cold front and weak upper
level trough will move across the region on Veterans Day into Fri
night, not expecting it to bring any pcpn with it, but setting
the stage for building upper level ridging influences across the
region along with post frontal sfc ridging influences yet again
from the Midwest building into our region over the weekend and
into at least Mon. Consensus of models now hinting at the
possibility of light isolated shwrs developing across the region
next Tue in association with a weak upper level disturbance and
possibly another weak surface frontal passage.
As for temps, with cloud coverage tonight, will keep overnight
lows at least five degrees or so above seasonal normal values,
mainly spanning the mid to upper 40s. The frontal passage the mid
state will be experiencing by late tonight will bring a CAA
scenario to the mid state, resulting in highs on Wed actually
now a few degrees below seasonal normal values, mainly in the
lower 60s, upper 50s Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows on Wed night
could potentially dip into the mid to upper 30s, and with light
winds and good radiational cooling potential expected along with
moclr skies, will continue the mention of patchy frost across
Northern Highland Rim locations approaching the TN/KY border and
the Upper Cumberland Regions. Look for a warming trend thru Fri
with highs returning to a few degrees above seasonal norms, mainly
in the mid to upper 60s, lower 60s Cumberland Plateau Region, as
lows generally warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. The frontal
passage by Fri night will result in yet another CAA scenario being
established across the region on Sat, with highs a few degrees
below seasonal values yet again, mainly in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Could potentially mention yet again patchy frost on Sat
night, as most of the mid state will experience lows in the mid
30s, but air mass looks quite dry at this point behind this second
frontal passage, and will leave for later model runs and future
forecasters reasoning/interpretation before mentioning any frost
potential. Again, a warm up to high and low temps a few degrees
above seasonal values is expected for the second half of the
upcoming weekend and into the first part of next work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
An approaching front will bring a few light showers to CKV and
perhaps as far east as BNA this afternoon, but VFR cigs/vsbys
should continue. CSV may experience some episodes of smoke from
area fires. The front will move in from the northwest with
greater coverage of light showers tonight, moving across the area.
MVFR cigs/vsbys will develop tonight. Late in the taf period, VFR
will return after the frontal passage with north winds gusting as
high as 20kt after daybreak Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 48 62 38 65 42 / 40 0 0 0 0
Clarksville 45 64 36 65 42 / 60 0 0 0 0
Crossville 44 58 36 62 39 / 60 0 0 0 0
Columbia 47 63 37 66 40 / 60 0 0 0 0
Lawrenceburg 47 63 37 66 39 / 60 0 0 0 0
Waverly 46 63 37 65 42 / 60 0 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
556 PM EST Tue Nov 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers tonight and into Wednesday. Behind
the front, more seasonable temperatures are forecast. Another
front Friday will lead to a chilly Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Per RAP soundings, the earlier chasm in dewpoint depression off
the surface looks to be closing very rapidly this evening ahead of
the southeastward moving cold front that now resides roughly from
Toledo to Indianapolis. This has allowed for a few of the echoes
on the front edge of the precipitation field to fall out a bit
quicker than expected. However, these echoes are rather sparse and
disorganized, so really low end PoPs were carried for them.
Deeper lift advances eastward overnight with a modestly coupled
upper jet structure advancing through the region. Saturation
thorough the column rapidly increases ahead of the front, and
thus categorical PoPs were maintained given upper divergence,
frontogenesis, and deep moisture. However, deep convection is
lacking and PWATs are unimpressive, thus just a general light rain
is expected at all locations as the front passes. This shouldn`t
cause any issues with hydrology whatsoever. Fries
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not expecting much temperature rise on Wednesday, and may in fact
see a non-diurnal trend in at least southeast Ohio during the
afternoon with strong cold advection ongoing. Post-frontal NW flow
showers will decrease in coverage with time as deep moisture
shifts to the east, but terrain will aid in keeping coverage up a
bit in the southeast counties. Cannot rule out some snowflakes at
the highest elevations by sunset as the last of the showers ends,
but the boundary layer may not cool quickly enough for this to be
much of an issue.
Showers will wane across the southeast ridges at the start of the
period as subsidence settles over the region and flow shifts
westerly. Dry and seasonal conditions are expected under high
pressure Thursday.
A prominent shortwave is progged dig into the Great Lakes region
on Friday with the surface cold front slated to cross the forecast
area by Friday afternoon. Limited moisture associated with the
aforementioned shortwave has yielded only chance PoPs along the
I-80 corridor and higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect showers look to briefly develop with cold advection
crossing Lake Erie Friday night. But with models quickly building
high pressure in across the region, the flow will turn northerly,
and showers look to be short lived. Therefore have rapidly
diminished PoPs Saturday morning. Otherwise, the rest of the
weekend will remain dry with a large area of high pressure progged
across the eastern CONUS. After a cold Saturday night,
temperatures will moderate into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through sunset, although clouds will
be thickening with time ahead of an approaching cold front. The
front crosses tonight with a period of showers expected at all
terminals. Ceiling/visibility will drop into the MVFR category at
least. Only confident enough to put IFR conditions at FKL/DUJ at
the present time, but such conditions at other ports cannot be
ruled out. Behind the front, isolated to scattered showers will
continue, with lingering MVFR ceilings. Expect west to southwest
winds to gust to between 15 and 20 knots this afternoon before
diminishing this evening.
.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restrictions are possible again with a Friday cold front.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$