Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/07/16
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
943 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Changes made mainly to the POP grids for the overnight. Mostly
stable conditions are making it difficult for showers/storms to
develop across South Texas. Looking at Theta-E and pressure
gradient, the boundary is currently bisecting South Texas
stretching from south of Victoria westward to near south of
Cotulla. LAPs analysis shows much capping and little instability,
with the exception for over the gulf waters. This suggests that
activity over land should be little to none and mainly as showers,
while over the waters, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible overnight. Chances for rain should
increase along the coastal areas heading toward daybreak as
heating resumes and capping breaks. HRRR and TT models show
similar in trend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 69 83 66 80 64 / 40 40 40 30 20
Victoria 65 80 63 78 60 / 40 50 40 20 20
Laredo 68 84 66 79 63 / 20 30 40 30 20
Alice 66 83 64 80 62 / 20 30 40 30 20
Rockport 70 82 67 79 65 / 50 50 40 30 20
Cotulla 66 82 64 78 61 / 20 30 40 30 20
Kingsville 68 84 65 80 63 / 30 40 40 30 20
Navy Corpus 71 83 68 78 68 / 40 40 40 40 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
CB/85...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
829 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
.UPDATE...
The bulk of the showers and thunderstorms have shifted to the east
of the CWA. Most areas should stay dry through the early overnight
period with only scattered activity continuing. The HRRR has
consistently been showing the redevelopment of showers and
activity near the central CWA after 2-3 AM as another round of
forcing arrives. This is the same forcing that sparked off a
strong thunderstorm west of Val Verde County. This impulse can be
seen clearly on water vapor imagery and given the strength and the
consistency from the HRRR, upped PoPs in the 6z-12z time period
for the central CWA. Only other adjustments were to the hourly
grids based on current trends.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/
AVIATION...
Large MCS is pushing east of AUS so widespread precip will be
coming to an end. Still a chance of VCSH through the evening and
overnight with light north winds continuing. Models are very
robust in bringing IFR into the area over the next few hours and
this seems reasonable with the clearing precip and watching cloud
decks to the northwest of AUS. Farther south to SAT/SSF...
convection near the airports will continue over the next hour or
so...TS has been right on the fringes of the 5nm prevailing. Over
the next hour or so..look for the widespread activity to
weaken...with VCSH again threatening overnight. Model guidance is
also robust in bringing IFR to SAT/SSF and have kept this into
the forecast overnight into early Monday morning. Convection NW of
Del Rio looks to stay far enough away that only mention of precip
for DRT is some VCSH to go along with our low end pop.
Meso models have not been overly accurate with the timing of the
convection today so the VCSH in all of the tafs overnight into MON
is due to the low confidence of the timing and overall coverage
in precip the next 24 hours.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Over the course of the day, a line of showers and storms had moved
through much of the northern third of the CWA bringing between 1-2
inches of rain to those locations with some spotty locations a
little higher. Also, isolated activity, more isolated and driven
by convective processes, was beginning across the Coastal Plains
area.
For the next 6 hours...the convective complex should continue to
progress eastward and out of the CWA but generating outflow which
we are already noting this afternoon on radar. This outflow will
serve as the main lifting mechanism, aided by a more favorable
convective environment and meager but appreciable effective bulk
shear of 25-30 kts. The concern is if this outflow boundary stalls
roughly along or just north of the I-10 corridor east of San
Antonio as it would likely set up a prolonged heavy rainfall
threat to that area eastward. As a result, the WPC has included
this region into a slight risk for flash flooding which agrees
well with our previous flash flood risk area being mainly along
and east of the escarpment/I-35.
There...should...be a significant downturn in coverage and
intensity after 06Z as convective potential wanes and outflows
wash out the environment. Unfortunately that complicates the
forecast details for tomorrow as the outcome of today and
tonight`s episode will highly effect the environment tomorrow.
That being said...the main upper level shortwave will still be
progressing eastward keeping the eastern CWA under broad lifting.
Believe the presence of remnant outflows would only serve to
enhance QPF values vs deter them in the afternoon, thus kept PoP
chances relatively unchanged for this package with likely PoPs in
the northeastern quarter of the CWA and gradually decreasing
towards the Rio Grande Plains.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The once negatively tilted upper low will shift its axis to become
positively tilted late Monday and begin elongating in a northeast
to southwest orientation. This should keep the extended period
with at least slight chance PoPs as the upper pattern undergoes
this metamorphosis. The question mark will be available moisture
as continued model trends have indicated the center of the
eventual closed low that develops to be located well into Mexico.
Just about all of the long range models put the low center in this
region which may serve to limit moisture availability to Texas
late in the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 64 74 62 72 59 / 50 60 40 30 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 75 62 72 59 / 50 60 40 30 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 64 78 62 74 60 / 50 50 40 30 20
Burnet Muni Airport 61 71 60 69 56 / 50 60 40 30 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 65 78 62 74 57 / 30 30 40 30 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 63 72 61 70 57 / 50 60 40 30 20
Hondo Muni Airport 66 80 63 76 59 / 30 40 40 30 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 63 77 62 74 59 / 50 50 40 30 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 78 62 75 60 / 50 60 40 30 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 64 78 63 75 60 / 50 50 40 30 20
Stinson Muni Airport 64 79 64 76 61 / 50 40 40 30 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...09
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
535 PM CST SUN NOV 6 2016
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a large
high pressure system stretching from Quebec to the southeast Gulf
Coast early this afternoon. This high continues to be the main
influence on our weather, with mainly sunny skies in such a dry
airmass. Many locations are approaching or surpassing their record
highs for the day. Looking upstream, clouds are increasing this
afternoon ahead of the next cold front, which is now entering the
western Dakotas. Clouds and temps are the main forecast concern
until this front arrives on Monday night.
The sprawling high pressure system will be moving to the east coast
at the same time as a weak cold front moves across the northern
Plains and into the northern Mississippi Valley by Monday afternoon.
With the high moving away, the pressure gradient will be tightening
somewhat, causing boundary layer winds to be higher than the past
couple nights. This should limit fog potential tonight and guidance
only gives a small chance near Lake Michigan. Otherwise, should see
another clear and quiet night.
Mid and high clouds will be on the increase across the region ahead
of the approaching front. Though progged soundings show that the
atmosphere struggles to saturate below 15 kft, moisture does start
to increase around 10 kft late in the afternoon. So think could see
a few sprinkles approach western Vilas and Oneida counties after 21z.
925mb temps are a few degrees colder in the nam/ecmwf tomorrow
afternoon. With the increase in cloud cover, think highs in the
low to mid 60s sounds about right.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
A cold front will bring showers to the area as it tracks through
the western Great Lakes on Monday night. The cold front will user
in a cooler airmass for Tuesday, however temperatures will still
be well above normal for this time of year. High pressure building
in across the Great Lakes will bring dry weather much of the work
week, as temperatures continue to slowly climb as the week
progresses.
Another cold front will track through the western Great Lakes late
on Thursday into Thursday night. Despite the passage of the front,
rain chances will not arrive until Friday when a shortwave tracks
through the region and takes advantage of deeper moisture afforded
by lake moisture. Even then rain chances will be low and limited
to the north closer to the lake moisture itself. This cold front
will bring an even colder airmass to the region Friday and
Saturday as temperatures return to near normal levels as high
temperatures are limited to the 40s. This dip in temperatures will
be short lived, as temperatures rebound back to above normal by
Sunday on the backside of a retreating high pressure system.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
Mainly clear skies expected tonight, except near Lake
Michigan, where low clouds and dense fog possible at the Washington
Island, Fish Creek and Sturgeon Bay airports. Low level wind shear
possible later tonight with southwest winds around 25 knots at
700` agl and light south surface winds. Sunny skies Monday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
849 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
Thought that the pressure gradient and a decent recovery in the
dewpoints yesterday evening would lead to a considerably warmer
night compared to Friday night. That was not the case. Bottom
line is that we have struggled to capture the cool lows for the
last several nights. Do not have enough confidence in the winds
staying up enough to keep us from getting to near 40 degrees over
much of the area tonight. Infused some RAP temperature and
dewpoint data to trend the forecast downward.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 158 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
Still looking rainfree and unseasonably warm through Monday as
high pressure moves very slowly east toward the eastern seaboard.
Should see max temps up close to 70 once again Monday afternoon as
sfc winds become a bit more southerly.
Positively tilted short wave diving southeast from the Midwest
will approach the region with an associated cold front Tue/Tue
night. The positive tilt to the mid/upper level system should
limit overall forcing, and convergence along the front itself
looks to be meager at best. Thus, not expecting this to be much of
a rain-maker, and some locations may end up staying entirely dry.
Definitely nothing to help out with the drought conditions
that have spread north into western KY and and far southeast MO.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
There is not much to discuss in the extended with regard to
significant weather. The main focus is a frontal passage Thursday
night into Friday morning, in addition to the potential for frost
Wednesday night and over the weekend. Deterministic models and their
ensembles remain in decent agreement through much of the period, so
forecast confidence is relatively high.
In the wake of the frontal passage on Tuesday, high pressure at the
surface and aloft will take control on Wednesday. This will result
in cooler weather for mid week as temperatures trend towards normal.
Lows Wednesday night are currently forecast in the upper 30s, so the
potential for patchy frost will need to be monitored.
A stronger cold front is slated to push through late Thursday night
into early Friday morning. No precipitation is expected. Behind the
front, some of the coldest air of the season is forecast by the
weekend. Highs on Saturday are only forecast to reach the 50s, with
lows Saturday night in the mid 30s. This could lead to the first
substantial widespread frost of the season, but the degree of impact
will likely depend on the location of the surface high at that time.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 505 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
Mainly wind changes and gradual increase in VFR (cirrus level)
bases and ceilings in the 00z Monday WFO PAH TAF issuance. TRhis
reflects the influence of the cirrus from the Midwest U.S. trough
and the flow of winds around the surface high pressure system to
the east.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
352 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
Cooler temperatures with breezy northwest winds are expected
today behind the departing cold front. Early this morning an area
of low stratus continued to move across southern Saskatchewan. The
latest HRRR run has this area of stratus depicted quite well.
According to the HRRR this stratus will enter northwest North
Dakota and may impact the KISN and KMOT terminals. Later this
morning the HRRR has this stratus scattering out and lifting.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
The main highlight for the long term is potential record
temperatures Wednesday. An upper level ridge and strong warm air
advection will center over North Dakota. So far this month models
have done poorly capturing these much warmer than normal events.
Therefore for this forecast went with highest guidance which
produced readings in the low 70s for most of the area. Records
range from 65 in Jamestown to 72 in Dickinson. Additionally these
warm and dry conditions will drop afternoon RH values into the low
20s across the southwest. If winds end up stronger than forecast
this could lead to some fire concerns across southwest North
Dakota.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1054 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
.AVIATION...
Precip has left the area for the time being with only a few pop up
showers from time to time. Abundant low clouds around the area but
TAF sites are frequently going between IFR and VFR with decks
around 700-800 ft. This trend will continue through the night so
am adding a tempo group through the predawn hours for the few
times that the low clouds SCT out. Have also introduced VCSH back
into the TAF around 09/10Z as meso models start to increase shower
coverage well after midnight. Satellite and obs show low decks out
west approaching DRT. They are VFR right now but that shouldn`t
last long. Will carry the IFR for all the TAFs through early
morning and then MVFR through mid to late morning. Followed MOS
guidance in giving VFR by afternoon but convection should be
nearby. AUS had the highest pop so keep the SHRA as
prevailing...with VCSH in SAT/SSF/DRT for the late AM through PM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/
UPDATE...
The bulk of the showers and thunderstorms have shifted to the east
of the CWA. Most areas should stay dry through the early overnight
period with only scattered activity continuing. The HRRR has
consistently been showing the redevelopment of showers and
activity near the central CWA after 2-3 AM as another round of
forcing arrives. This is the same forcing that sparked off a
strong thunderstorm west of Val Verde County. This impulse can be
seen clearly on water vapor imagery and given the strength and the
consistency from the HRRR, upped PoPs in the 6z-12z time period
for the central CWA. Only other adjustments were to the hourly
grids based on current trends.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/
AVIATION...
Large MCS is pushing east of AUS so widespread precip will be
coming to an end. Still a chance of VCSH through the evening and
overnight with light north winds continuing. Models are very
robust in bringing IFR into the area over the next few hours and
this seems reasonable with the clearing precip and watching cloud
decks to the northwest of AUS. Farther south to SAT/SSF...
convection near the airports will continue over the next hour or
so...TS has been right on the fringes of the 5nm prevailing. Over
the next hour or so..look for the widespread activity to
weaken...with VCSH again threatening overnight. Model guidance is
also robust in bringing IFR to SAT/SSF and have kept this into
the forecast overnight into early Monday morning. Convection NW of
Del Rio looks to stay far enough away that only mention of precip
for DRT is some VCSH to go along with our low end pop.
Meso models have not been overly accurate with the timing of the
convection today so the VCSH in all of the tafs overnight into MON
is due to the low confidence of the timing and overall coverage
in precip the next 24 hours.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Over the course of the day, a line of showers and storms had moved
through much of the northern third of the CWA bringing between 1-2
inches of rain to those locations with some spotty locations a
little higher. Also, isolated activity, more isolated and driven
by convective processes, was beginning across the Coastal Plains
area.
For the next 6 hours...the convective complex should continue to
progress eastward and out of the CWA but generating outflow which
we are already noting this afternoon on radar. This outflow will
serve as the main lifting mechanism, aided by a more favorable
convective environment and meager but appreciable effective bulk
shear of 25-30 kts. The concern is if this outflow boundary stalls
roughly along or just north of the I-10 corridor east of San
Antonio as it would likely set up a prolonged heavy rainfall
threat to that area eastward. As a result, the WPC has included
this region into a slight risk for flash flooding which agrees
well with our previous flash flood risk area being mainly along
and east of the escarpment/I-35.
There...should...be a significant downturn in coverage and
intensity after 06Z as convective potential wanes and outflows
wash out the environment. Unfortunately that complicates the
forecast details for tomorrow as the outcome of today and
tonight`s episode will highly effect the environment tomorrow.
That being said...the main upper level shortwave will still be
progressing eastward keeping the eastern CWA under broad lifting.
Believe the presence of remnant outflows would only serve to
enhance QPF values vs deter them in the afternoon, thus kept PoP
chances relatively unchanged for this package with likely PoPs in
the northeastern quarter of the CWA and gradually decreasing
towards the Rio Grande Plains.
LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The once negatively tilted upper low will shift its axis to become
positively tilted late Monday and begin elongating in a northeast
to southwest orientation. This should keep the extended period
with at least slight chance PoPs as the upper pattern undergoes
this metamorphosis. The question mark will be available moisture
as continued model trends have indicated the center of the
eventual closed low that develops to be located well into Mexico.
Just about all of the long range models put the low center in this
region which may serve to limit moisture availability to Texas
late in the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 64 74 62 72 59 / 60 60 40 30 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 75 62 72 59 / 60 60 40 30 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 64 78 62 74 60 / 60 50 40 30 20
Burnet Muni Airport 61 71 60 69 56 / 50 60 40 30 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 65 78 62 74 57 / 30 30 40 30 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 63 72 61 70 57 / 50 60 40 30 20
Hondo Muni Airport 66 80 63 76 59 / 40 40 40 30 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 63 77 62 74 59 / 60 50 40 30 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 78 62 75 60 / 50 60 40 30 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 64 78 63 75 60 / 60 50 40 30 20
Stinson Muni Airport 64 79 64 76 61 / 60 40 40 30 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...09
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
308 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
Fog locally dense this morning should be gone by noon. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will comes through
Southwest Michigan Tuesday morning and it will be accompanied by
showers. High pressure follows the front with mostly clear skies
on Thursday. Yet another front comes through the area Friday
morning. This is a strong cold front so the weekend to come will
be much cooler than last weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
Our primary concern in the short term is the dense fog spreading
westward from SE MI. Both the HRRR and RAP model bring the fog as
far west as GRR by mid morning. These models did very nicely with
the fog yesterday with both timing and extent. So far this morning
those models are doing well on the location and position of the
fog. I will continue to monitor this fog to see if it needs to be
expanded westward before sunrise.
The fog will burn off late morning (due feeble Nov sunshine). With
the upper level ridge just east of us and no clouds other than the
fog seen on the water vapor loops it should be sunny today once
the fog is gone. Increasing winds and clouds moving in tonight
should make fog much less of a risk Tuesday morning.
That brings up the issue of the cold front coming through Tuesday
(Election Day) Tuesday morning. This has been well forecast by the
models and will bring our temperatures down about 10 degrees.
What is bringing the showers a southern stream shortwave coming
from the SW US that seems to want to merge with the northern
stream system. Typically these southern stream systems last longer
than forecast by our models and given the PTW rises to over an
inch, I would say the models are undergoing the rainfall with
this system. We do have decent moisture transport ahead of the
cold front to help the cause for rain. As mentioned in previous
discussions, it will only rain for 1 to 3 hours at one any
location as the front comes through.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
We`re going to run with a dry forecast through the long term.
The main synoptic feature to watch will be a cold front that moves
across the cwa Thursday night. The low driving the front is progd to
remain well north of the state in Ontario and Quebec as does the
following short wave. The system is pretty moisture starved and so
we don`t expect any pcpn over the weekend.
The short wave will carve out a deep long wave trough over the
eastern US by the weekend. This trough will bring down colder
temperatures...h8 -6c...by the weekend. Surface temperatures will
take a tumble from the mid 50s Thursday to the mid 40s Saturday
behind the front before rebounding a bit into the 50s Sunday.
Could be a period of lake effect rain showers Tuesday since 850
temps fall to near zero behind the cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1207 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
Latest ir imagery shows an area of dense fog and LIFR cigs
spreading northwest from metro Detroit. We`re likely to see the
fog and low cigs spread to JXN first and then LAN. Eventually, it
should reach BTL, AZO, and GRR and perhaps MKG. So far
visibilities aren`t as low as they were last night, bt we expect
IFR at most taf sites overnight. Look for clearing through the
morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
More than likely we will need a SCA for north winds to 30 knots
Tuesday behing the cold front but I will let the day shift take
care of this.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1216 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
Very little has changed. Rivers continue to improve and only light
precipitation is expected over the next several days. The best
chance comes very late Monday into the first half of Tuesday.
Amounts will largely be less than one-tenth of an inch.
No additional flooding is expected through the week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MIZ059-066-
067-073-074.
LM...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
334 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of rain today
through Wednesday, with overall rain amounts low as well as any
severe storm threat. Then a temperature forecast depended on
clouds, rain, then a cooler airmass filtering into AR.
Current upper level low pressure trough is over the western to
central Plains, with upper shortwave energy moving over parts of
the eastern Plains. This morning we are seeing light convection,
mainly light rain or showers, affecting western AR, and moving
northeast. Overall rain coverage and amounts are low. The surface
high pressure system is well off to the east, while a light south
flow in back into AR. Although, current moisture levels remain low
with dewpoint temperatures are in the middle 50s over western AR,
while lower 50s to the lower 40s in eastern AR. Moisture levels
will have to increase before we see much rain reported on the
ground. Clouds have thickened and mostly cloudy to cloudy skies
are being seen this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Forecast will have plenty of clouds with a gradually increase in
rain chances, west to central today, then all of AR tonight to
Tuesday. The upper low pressure trough gradually moves east and
spreads upper level lift over AR, hence increasing the chance of
rain. Today most models have much of the rain chances over western
AR, while HRRR has some focus of light convection over southern
AR. Forecast has taken a mixed trend of models. The best chance
of rain will be on Tuesday, as moisture levels have increased and
the most upper lift is expected. Also as the upper low pressure
through moves east, a cold front will gradually move through AR on
Tuesday to Tuesday night. Model trends continue to show a very low
chance of strong to severe storms. Also model trends forecast rain
amounts well less than an inch over all of AR, with the highest
amounts will be seen over far western to southern AR. Temperatures
will be closer to normal values, with highs from the 60s to lower
70s today, more 60s on Tuesday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to
middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The period will feature a storm system cut off from the main flow
to the southwest. Meanwhile, a northwest wind flow aloft will
develop over much of the country east of the Mississippi River.
In Arkansas, the northwest flow will have the most influence, with a
couple of cold fronts driven through the region from the Plains.
One front will arrive by Wednesday, with the other knocking on the
door by the weekend. The fronts will have limited moisture, so
little to no precipitation is in the forecast at this time.
The fronts will provide cooler temperatures, and readings are
expected to be pretty close to seasonal. In fact, readings may be a
little below average by the end of the period. There could be some
frost in northern sections of the state Thursday and Sunday mornings.
It does not appear cold enough for any freezes.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 71 53 67 51 / 10 30 30 20
Camden AR 74 55 71 54 / 40 40 50 20
Harrison AR 67 50 62 46 / 30 40 20 10
Hot Springs AR 71 55 68 53 / 40 40 40 20
Little Rock AR 72 54 68 53 / 30 40 40 20
Monticello AR 75 58 68 55 / 30 50 50 20
Mount Ida AR 69 53 66 51 / 40 40 40 20
Mountain Home AR 69 51 64 47 / 20 40 30 10
Newport AR 73 52 69 51 / 10 20 30 20
Pine Bluff AR 74 55 69 53 / 30 40 40 20
Russellville AR 70 53 68 51 / 40 40 30 10
Searcy AR 72 54 69 51 / 10 30 40 20
Stuttgart AR 73 55 69 53 / 20 40 40 20
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...46
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
454 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 454 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a strong mid/upper level
ridge over the Great Lakes region early this morning. Upstream, a
rather vigorous looking shortwave is over se Saskatchewan. Another
shortwave is over the southern Plains. At the sfc, high pres ridge
has shifted e to New England while upstream shortwave is supporting
low pres over Manitoba with associated cold front extending s thru
the eastern Dakotas. Ahead of cold front, radar imagery shows some
returns over eastern SD into nw MN, but at this point, doesn`t
appear to be much more than sprinkles. Closer to home, southerly
winds up Lake MI continue to advect lake modified warmer/higher dwpt
air into the cooler conditions over eastern Upper MI. Just like last
night, this is resulting in stratus and fog, locally dense, roughly
e of a KSAW to KESC line. At this point, coverage of dense fog does
not appear to be as extensive as last night when the interior had
much stronger radiational cooling before the lake modified air
pushed n over the area.
With dense fog not as widespread as yesterday morning and likely to
thin out quicker, will hold off on a dense fog advy this morning.
Attention then turns to the approaching shortwave and cold front
which will reach western Lake Superior this evening and then pass
across Upper MI tonight. Fcst soundings show moisture relatively
lacking today, and not supportive of much if any pcpn reaching the
fcst area. So, see no reason to deviate from model guidance which
does not generate any pcpn until possibly toward evening over the
far w. With an increase in clouds, temps shouldn`t be as high as
yesterday. However, if clouds are slower to arrive, temps will
easily push into the upper 60s/lower 70s away from moderation
downwind of Lake Michigan. For now, fcst will show max temps mostly
in the low/mid 60s. It will also become breezy today with gusts to
20-25mph at at times. Gusts will be higher if the day ends up warmer
than expected.
Models show deep layer forcing for upward motion increasing with
time as shortwave moves to the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Moisture
remains limited, but the increasing deep layer forcing suggests
a narrow band of -shra should begin to fill in along the front as it
sweeps across the area. Question will be how quickly that occurs, but
models, including NCAR ensembles, are in good agreement overall,
suggesting isold to sct -shra w increasing to nmrs e.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016
Continued low impact conditions through the long term.
Some light showers or drizzle with upslope N-NW flow is expected Tue
morning into early afternoon along with breezy conditions.
The next item of any significance is the potential passage of a
trough/cold front Thu and colder air the follows through Fri. Could
see gusty winds near Lake Superior Thu into Fri, especially over the
Keweenaw. 850mb temps possibly as low as -9C would result in lake
effect rain and snow showers Thu night into Fri night, but any
potential accumulations of snow look to be very minor at this time.
A warmer airmass moves back in Sat and Sun, then moderating some on
Mon.
Given uncertainty and overall low impacts, did not make significant
changes to blended initialization.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1234 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016
VFR conditions will prevail. However, stratus/IFR conditions could
redevelop overnight at KSAW. Also, a tightening pres gradient btwn
departing high pres ridge and an approaching low pres trof will
support LLWS at KIWD overnight as winds strengthen above the
nocturnal inversion. Mid clouds will lower today over the west but
should still remain above MVFR threshold.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 454 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016
Expect winds mostly in the 15-25kt range thru Tue in response to a
cold front that will pass across Lake Superior tonight. Some s to sw
wind gusts up toward 30kt should occur ahead of the front, and then
late tonight into Tue behind the front, nw wind gusts to around 30kt
are more likely to occur over central and eastern Lake Superior.
Winds will become light again Tue night as a high pres ridge
arrives. As the high pres ridge sinks se on Wed and deep low pres
moves e to Hudson Bay, wsw winds will increase across the lake
again, possibly up to gale force over north central Lake Superior
Wed night into Thu. In the wake of a cold front sweeping across the
area Thu, nw gales are a good bet over the e half of Lake Superior
Thu night into Fri morning.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
253 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
High pressure continues at the surface and aloft across the region.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a
ridge stretching across the Southern Appalachians northward into the
Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure is centered across the
Northeastern U.S. with light to calm winds at most reporting sites
across the CWA. Temperatures at 2 am vary a good bit ranging from
upper 30s to low 50s. Expect patchy frost will be possible once
again across the cooler locations in SW VA, SW NC, and E TN, but do
not anticipate any widespread frost based on the current temperature
trends.
Not expecting much change in the upper level pattern today with the
ridge holding strong across the region. Subsidence and high heights
aloft will produce mostly sunny skies with highs temperatures in the
upper 60s and low 70s for most valley locations. In the low levels,
the high will shift some to the east leading to light southerly flow
by the end of the day. This will also support above normal
temperatures during the overnight period as well. Lows will range
from the mid 30s to mid 40s with a few isolated areas of patchy
frost in the cooler locations of SW VA and NE TN.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate area
weather on Tuesday for one more dry and warm day. Then...models
continue to have poor run to run consistency in regards to an
approaching weather system. Timing of the system appears to be
centered around Tuesday night into early Wednesday. However...there
remains significant difference in the amount of moisture and
dynamics associated with the system. The NAM is a bit quicker and
drier than the GFS with the main energy remaining north of the
area. Will go with a compromise but trended a bit toward the NAM.
Will keep pops at 30 to 40 for the northern half of the area
Tuesday night with 20 pops south...then...linger 20 to 30 pops over
the northeastern locations into Wednesday. Surface high pressure
builds in behind the system for a return to dry conditions and a
bit cooler temperatures through the rest of the extended.
As for fire weather concerns...Tuesday will see relative humidities
of 30 to 35 percent...then cooler air moving in will bring RHs
generally up above 40 percent Wednesday through Friday then back
into the 30 to 40 percent range for the weekend. Also...expect
Northwest winds to increase on Wednesday behind the front passage
and again around Friday as an upper trough moves through.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 46 71 50 / 0 0 0 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 43 70 48 / 0 0 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 72 42 70 48 / 0 0 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 36 68 46 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
MA/MJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
318 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
Center of upper low was entering western Kansas early this morning,
with water vapor and radar imagery suggesting multiple smaller-scale
waves rotating around it. Another strong shortwave was moving east
cross southern Saskatchewan. Main band of showers was pushing north
into western and southern sections of the local area at 09Z with
more isolated activity into southern Kansas. Recent objective
analysis shows a weak inverted surface trough stretching northeast
across central Oklahoma with low ceilings and some limitations to
visibilities along and north of it with dewpoints in the mid to upper
50s near the trough.
Main questions through tonight are the location and duration of
precipitation, and uncertainty in these items remains high. Models
are in good agreement in a few larger-scale features however.
Persistent Q-vector convergence downstream of the main low persists
over south central Nebraska and adjacent portions of the local area,
and this area will likely see the most precipitation. This area
slowly weakens late in the day into the evening as the northern wave
makes its way southeast into the Great Lakes. Initial wave around
the low moves off early today, with drier air in the upper and mid
levels filling in. Have steered precip chances in kind, with only
small PoPs much of the day in the central and eastern counties, but
next wave approaches late in the day for somewhat increased chances.
Instability remains very weak at best, and with little upstream deep
convection, will keep thunder mention out. Lower cloud should advect
north across eastern Kansas by midday, and keep highs in the mid 50s
to lower 60s. Several models showing the potential for low ceilings
and perhaps some fog and drizzle potential developing tonight as the
inverted surface trough builds northeast into east central Kansas
before modest cold air advection takes over through the night. Have
introduced a mention of these phenomena and will need to watch
trends for potentially more widespread and impactful such
conditions.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
The upper trough axis will move through early on Tuesday ending any
precipitation across east central Kansas. Northerly winds are
expected behind the cold front through the day along with decreasing
clouds. High pressure will settle over northeast Kansas with the
surface ridge axis across the area 12Z Wednesday. With the clear
skies and light winds along with wet ground may likely see some
patchy fog develop due to radiational cooling. Lows Wednesday
morning will range from the lower 30s in north central Kansas to the
upper 30s in east central Kansas. Some patchy frost is also possible
across parts of north central and northeast Kansas. On Wednesday
return flow on the back side of the surface high will bring winds
around to the south. A shortwave moving southeast in the northern
stream across southern Canada and the Northern Plains on Thursday
will bring another through the area Thursday night. The front will
move through dry due to limited moisture, however it will bring
another shot of cold air which will yield lows in the low to mid 30s
for Saturday morning. The upper low over the southwest begins to
move northeast into the Plains Saturday night and Sunday and becomes
an open wave as it phases with an wave moving across the Northern
Plains into the Great Lakes region. Highs will be in the 60s into
next weekend. Lows will be in the 30s Wednesday, Thursday and
Saturday mornings otherwise lows will be in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
Biggest uncertainty is timing MVFR CIGS entrance into the
terminals. Model consensus remains for MVFR conditions to develop
as the airmass moistens. Suspect the lower clouds will develop
shortly after precip begins so have maintained a similar timing
from the prev forecast. The HRRR has been pretty consistent in
bringing a band of -SHRA into the area with the lead lobe of
vorticity. Because of this have gone ahead and mentioned
prevailing precip in the morning. Though it appears the rain may
break up by the afternoon. There is some potential for IFR
conditions Monday evening, but confidence is to low to mention at
this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
846 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
Current observations show winds a bit higher than previously
forecast, so the main update was to increase winds across the area
through the afternoon. As of now not thinking of any wind
headlines as the pressure gradient should slowly decrease through
the day.
UPDATE
Issued at 626 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
Area of SCT-BKN low level clouds along with a wind surge moving
into northwest ND at the moment associated with a pressure rise
bubble. This feature will continue to spread east and slightly
south this morning. Low clouds should scatter out mid to late
morning as they burn off with the onset of daylight. Rest of the
forecast remains in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
Cooler temperatures with breezy northwest winds are expected
today behind the departing cold front. Early this morning an area
of low stratus continued to move across southern Saskatchewan. The
latest HRRR run has this area of stratus depicted quite well.
According to the HRRR this stratus will enter northwest North
Dakota and may impact the KISN and KMOT terminals. Later this
morning the HRRR has this stratus scattering out and lifting.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
The main highlight for the long term is potential record
temperatures Wednesday. An upper level ridge and strong warm air
advection will center over North Dakota. So far this month models
have done poorly capturing these much warmer than normal events.
Therefore for this forecast went with highest guidance which
produced readings in the low 70s for most of the area. Records
range from 65 in Jamestown to 72 in Dickinson. Additionally these
warm and dry conditions will drop afternoon RH values into the low
20s across the southwest. If winds end up stronger than forecast
this could lead to some fire concerns across southwest North
Dakota.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 626 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
A period of MVFR cigs can be expected this morning for KISN and
KMOT as an area of low stratus surges southeast into North Dakota
from Canada. Other terminals more uncertain at this point in time
if they will see a BKN layer of these clouds. The low stratus
should scatter out as we head into late morning/early afternoon
with VFR for the rest of the period. Will also see a period of
gusty northwest winds for a few hours this morning/afternoon at
all terminals. Winds subside first west early to mid day, then for
the remaining terminals late afternoon/early evening.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
832 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
Adjusted shower coverage for the rest of today. Increased pops to
likely category for several hours this afternoon, roughly from
near Dodge City eastward, with 12z NAM and HRRR solutions both
showing a healthy wraparound rain shield. Kept isolated thunder
mentioned only in the SE zones this afternoon, where NAM hangs
onto some meager CAPE. Otherwise, low clouds will persist
delivering a gloomy Monday. Temperatures will likely struggle to
reach forecasted highs, but did not update for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
Rain showers and maybe even a few embedded thunderstorms will be
possible today and early this evening under an upper level trough
that will move from western Kansas into central Kansas today. As
this upper level trough passes....large scale lift will end and a
surface cold front/boundary will begin to cross western Kansas.
Ahead of this surface boundary today a deep layer of low level
moisture will be present which will result in widespread stratus
along with areas of fog. Given the wind speeds near the surface
there should be enough mixing to keep the fog from becoming dense,
however a few locations early this morning may experience periods
of visibilities at 1/4 or less. There may also be some areas of
drizzle or light rain early today given the depth of this moisture
layer. The better chance for precipitation will occur east of a
Dighton to Coldwater line. This will be under the upper low that
will be slowly moving east into central Kansas through the early
evening. Accumulations today will be light and are expected to be
less than one tenth of an inch.
Tonight any linger light precipitation will end as the upper low
continues to move east and the surface cold front/boundary moves
into Oklahoma and south central Kansas. Subsidence and drier air
behind the upper low will allow skies to clear overnight from
northwest to southeast. As skies clear and light north northwest
winds develop some areas of western Kansas will have lows tonight
falling back into the mid to upper 30s. Further east/southeast
lows will be mainly in the 40 to 45 degree range.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
By mid week an upper low is forecast to develop over the southern
Plains as an upper level ridge axis builds into the Northern and
Central Plains. At the surface a cool dome of high pressure will
begin to slowly build across western Kansas mid week. Given the
light winds and clear skies mid week the overnight lows should
easily fall back into the 30s. Even looks like some upper 20s will
be possible in portions of western Kansas Wednesday morning.
As the surface high drops south into the Southern Plains late
week another surface boundary will cross western Kansas on
Thursday. This will limit any warm up that may occur on Thursday
afternoon. Thursday is expected to be the warmest day of the work
week with highs around 70. Once the frontal boundary cross western
Kansas the highs from Friday through the weekend period should be
mainly in the 60s for highs. Lows will be in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 514 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
Slow moving upper low will continue to bring scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to portions of southwest into central KS
through today. However, the bigger issue is a plume of higher
moisture existing ahead of a surface trough of low pressure. This
is bringing widespread IFR to LIFR ceiling and visibility values
to the western half of Kansas. While visibility values should
slowly increase to MVFR levels in the next few hours, lower
ceilings will remain an issue until a cold front moves through
Kansas later today. Otherwise, late tonight turns quiet with
unlimited ceiling and visibility values expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 42 60 33 / 60 20 0 0
GCK 62 38 62 31 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 67 39 62 31 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 66 40 62 30 / 20 10 0 0
HYS 60 42 60 33 / 80 40 0 0
P28 62 48 63 38 / 60 40 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...AJohnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
755 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
Fog locally dense this morning should be gone by noon. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will comes through
Southwest Michigan Tuesday morning and it will be accompanied by
showers. High pressure follows the front with mostly clear skies
on Thursday. Yet another front comes through the area Friday
morning. This is a strong cold front so the weekend to come will
be much cooler than last weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
I have canceled the fog advisory for areas east of US-131 as it
now appears the fog over the southeastern part of the Michigan
will not get this far west.
UPDATE Issued at 522 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
The fog continues to expand westward as per the forecast of the
HRRR and RAP model. Both models show rapid growth to the fog
around sunrise and given dew points are higher at 500 feet off the
ground (model soundings) any mixing will indeed cause the fog to
expand, just like yesterday. So I expanded the fog advisory to
cover all counties near and south of I-96 till 9 am. It should
start to mix out after that.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
Our primary concern in the short term is the dense fog spreading
westward from SE MI. Both the HRRR and RAP model bring the fog as
far west as GRR by mid morning. These models did very nicely with
the fog yesterday with both timing and extent. So far this morning
those models are doing well on the location and position of the
fog. I will continue to monitor this fog to see if it needs to be
expanded westward before sunrise.
The fog will burn off late morning (due feeble Nov sunshine). With
the upper level ridge just east of us and no clouds other than the
fog seen on the water vapor loops it should be sunny today once
the fog is gone. Increasing winds and clouds moving in tonight
should make fog much less of a risk Tuesday morning.
That brings up the issue of the cold front coming through Tuesday
(Election Day) Tuesday morning. This has been well forecast by the
models and will bring our temperatures down about 10 degrees.
What is bringing the showers a southern stream shortwave coming
from the SW US that seems to want to merge with the northern
stream system. Typically these southern stream systems last longer
than forecast by our models and given the PTW rises to over an
inch, I would say the models are undergoing the rainfall with
this system. We do have decent moisture transport ahead of the
cold front to help the cause for rain. As mentioned in previous
discussions, it will only rain for 1 to 3 hours at one any
location as the front comes through.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
We`re going to run with a dry forecast through the long term.
The main synoptic feature to watch will be a cold front that moves
across the cwa Thursday night. The low driving the front is progd to
remain well north of the state in Ontario and Quebec as does the
following short wave. The system is pretty moisture starved and so
we don`t expect any pcpn over the weekend.
The short wave will carve out a deep long wave trough over the
eastern US by the weekend. This trough will bring down colder
temperatures...h8 -6c...by the weekend. Surface temperatures will
take a tumble from the mid 50s Thursday to the mid 40s Saturday
behind the front before rebounding a bit into the 50s Sunday.
Could be a period of lake effect rain showers Tuesday since 850
temps fall to near zero behind the cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 522 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
IFR fog will be in nearly all of the tafs (except MKG) this
morning as the area of fog that was over SE LOWER MI continues to
expand westward as per the HRRR and RAP models. The fog should be
gone by 16z for sure. Model sounding show it to be dry above so I
do not expect any clouds once the fog lifts.
There will be some clouds moving in toward 12z as the frontal
system to our west gets closer but I do not believe any of the TAF
sites will have rain prior to 12z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
More than likely we will need a SCA for north winds to 30 knots
Tuesday behind the cold front but I will let the day shift take
care of this.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1216 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
Very little has changed. Rivers continue to improve and only light
precipitation is expected over the next several days. The best
chance comes very late Monday into the first half of Tuesday.
Amounts will largely be less than one-tenth of an inch.
No additional flooding is expected through the week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MIZ051-052-
058-059-065>067-072>074.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
315 AM PST Mon Nov 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures and dry weather will prevail across
central California through the week. Otherwise, hazy afternoon
conditions with patchy late night and early morning fog is
expected in the the San Joaquin Valley each day and may become
dense at times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Satellite loops show a deep upper low spinning over
the Gulf of Alaska this morning with a moist southwest flow aloft
off the California coast. Lots of mid/high clouds continue to
spread inland but rather stagnant surface conditions in the San
Joaquin Valley has again resulted in areas of mist and haze with
visibilities down to 1-3 miles. Still expecting some patchy fog
to develop through sunrise which could become locally dense at
times. The latest HRRR model favors areas along the Highway 99
corridor from Merced to Fresno, as well as the fog prone areas
along Hwy 198 from Hanford to Visalia.
A strong upper ridge will quickly build in today across southern
California and over the Rockies. The positively tilted ridge will
remain in control through the week for dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Models show an EPAC trough shifting in over
the Pac NW Friday night with a weakening front into central CA on
Saturday. Right now it looks to remain dry next weekend with just
some mid/high clouds and slight cooling.
Cloud cover should be less today and allow temperatures to warm to
a few degrees above normal for early November. Synoptic warming and
even fewer clouds on Tuesday will see temperatures climb to around
10 degrees above climo, with highs around 80 in the Kern Co Desert
and San Joaquin Valley. Little change is expected Wednesday-Friday
then modest cooling for the weekend with temps likely still several
degrees above normal.
Conditions will remain favorable for a continuation of late night
and early morning fog in the SJ Valley this week. If, where and
when any dense fog develops is difficult to say, but there will be
the potential under the strong ridge pattern. So it would probably
be a good idea idea to allow extra time for the morning commute as
travel conditions may become hazardous.
&&
.AVIATION...Patchy lifr and vlifr ceilings through 17z, especially
at kvis and kfat. Otherwise, mainly mvfr with haze through the
afternoon and early evening hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Monday November 7 2016...Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno...Kern and Tulare Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno...Kern...Kings...
Madera and Tulare Counties. Further information is available at
Valleyair.org
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
public...DCH
avn/fw...Riley
synopsis...DCH
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
645 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 402 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
Light winds and clear skies will result in patchy fog early this
morning. The fog will be most widespread and dense over northwest
Ohio and southeast Michigan. High pressure centered over
Pennsylvania will continue to provide fair weather across our area
with above normal temperatures today. A cold front will approach
the area from then northwest tonight resulting in increasing
cloudiness. Highs today will be in the upper 60s with lows tonight
in the middle and upper 40s. Showers are likely Tuesday as the
front moves across our area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
Strong upr level ridge axis over our cwa this morning will move e-se
today/tonight followed by shrtwv movg into the nrn plains then digging
into the upr grtlks. No sgfnt change in airmass today under the
influence of the upr ridge. Highs should be similar to yday,
perhaps slightly warmer due to increased gradient winds, hwvr,
the ne portion of the cwa may be slightly cooler due to
widespread dense fog lingering through much of the morning. This
area of fog a result of moisture advection off Lake Erie earlier
tonight while over the rest of the cwa moisture is more shallow
and morning fog should be patchy and burn off early.
Increasing gradient winds and clouds as shrtwv and associated cdfnt
approach from nw tonight should lead to warmer mins in the m-u40s.
ECMWf/NAM have trended deeper with this system as suggested by earlier
GFS runs. Narrow band of gulf moisture with pwat>1" expected to be
advected into our area as the shrtwv/cdfnt approach Tue. Thus,
have bumped pops up into likely range. Cloud cover and showers
along with eventual caa as front moves through will result in
cooler temps with highs in the u50s/l60s.
Showers may cont into the eve se with a short period of post-frontal
lake effect showers psbl nw before upr ridging builds back in,
lowering inversion. Cloud cover and gradient mixing should limit
temp falls despite fairly strong caa with lows expected in the
l40s. With ridging building into the area Wed, cloudiness should
grdly decrease and temps recover to near normal in the l-m50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
Another rather strong shrtwv/cdfnt expected to drop se across the
grtlks thu/thu ngt. Strong waa ahead of this system should result
in breezy and warmer conditions Thu with highs near 60. Gulf moisture
cut-off by high pressure ridge across the srn U.S., so a dry
fropa expected. GFS has abandoned fcst of this shrtwv
transitioning to a closed low over the grtlks late this week,
trending toward earlier ECMWF solution suggesting a more
progressive pattern with high pressure movg quickly across the
Midwest this weekend, resulting in dry conditions and a brief cool
down with return flow providing warmer temps Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
Patchy dense fog was over northern Indiana, with more widespread
dense fog over northeast Indiana, north of Ft Wayne and east of
South Bend. Have adjusted the fog to better match current obs and
trends in the light of the latest HRRR model and considering
conditional climatology. Even with waning seasonal insolation,
the fog should mix out before 15Z given a relatively shallow
radiation inversion. Conditions should become VFR before noon and
should persist tonight. Lower clouds should spread into the area
late tonight near the end of the TAF period ahead of a cold
front. Kept VFR late tonight for now, but will likely need to add
lower clouds during the next TAF issuance.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for INZ006-007-
009.
MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ081.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MIZ079-080.
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ001-002-
004-005.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...Skipper
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Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
.Aviation...
VFR flight conditions with ceilings are expected to be dominant
through this TAF period. Patchy MVFR may also be seen especially
with showers or storms. Increasing clouds will be seen from the west
through the day. Light showers will be seen mainly over western
areas of AR, and used VCSH in Tafs. Later in the day a few isolated
thunderstorms may develop, and used PROB30 groups. Winds will be
light from the east to southeast in the morning, becoming 5 to 10
mph on Monday. (59)
&&
.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 334 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016/
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of rain today
through Wednesday, with overall rain amounts low as well as any
severe storm threat. Then a temperature forecast depended on
clouds, rain, then a cooler airmass filtering into AR.
Current upper level low pressure trough is over the western to
central Plains, with upper shortwave energy moving over parts of
the eastern Plains. This morning we are seeing light convection,
mainly light rain or showers, affecting western AR, and moving
northeast. Overall rain coverage and amounts are low. The surface
high pressure system is well off to the east, while a light south
flow in back into AR. Although, current moisture levels remain low
with dewpoint temperatures are in the middle 50s over western AR,
while lower 50s to the lower 40s in eastern AR. Moisture levels
will have to increase before we see much rain reported on the
ground. Clouds have thickened and mostly cloudy to cloudy skies
are being seen this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Forecast will have plenty of clouds with a gradually increase in
rain chances, west to central today, then all of AR tonight to
Tuesday. The upper low pressure trough gradually moves east and
spreads upper level lift over AR, hence increasing the chance of
rain. Today most models have much of the rain chances over western
AR, while HRRR has some focus of light convection over southern
AR. Forecast has taken a mixed trend of models. The best chance
of rain will be on Tuesday, as moisture levels have increased and
the most upper lift is expected. Also as the upper low pressure
through moves east, a cold front will gradually move through AR on
Tuesday to Tuesday night. Model trends continue to show a very low
chance of strong to severe storms. Also model trends forecast rain
amounts well less than an inch over all of AR, with the highest
amounts will be seen over far western to southern AR. Temperatures
will be closer to normal values, with highs from the 60s to lower
70s today, more 60s on Tuesday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to
middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The period will feature a storm system cut off from the main flow
to the southwest. Meanwhile, a northwest wind flow aloft will
develop over much of the country east of the Mississippi River.
In Arkansas, the northwest flow will have the most influence, with a
couple of cold fronts driven through the region from the Plains.
One front will arrive by Wednesday, with the other knocking on the
door by the weekend. The fronts will have limited moisture, so
little to no precipitation is in the forecast at this time.
The fronts will provide cooler temperatures, and readings are
expected to be pretty close to seasonal. In fact, readings may be a
little below average by the end of the period. There could be some
frost in northern sections of the state Thursday and Sunday mornings.
It does not appear cold enough for any freezes.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 71 53 67 51 / 10 30 30 20
Camden AR 74 55 71 54 / 40 40 50 20
Harrison AR 67 50 62 46 / 30 40 20 10
Hot Springs AR 71 55 68 53 / 40 40 40 20
Little Rock AR 72 54 68 53 / 30 40 40 20
Monticello AR 75 58 68 55 / 30 50 50 20
Mount Ida AR 69 53 66 51 / 40 40 40 20
Mountain Home AR 69 51 64 47 / 20 40 30 10
Newport AR 73 52 69 51 / 10 20 30 20
Pine Bluff AR 74 55 69 53 / 30 40 40 20
Russellville AR 70 53 68 51 / 40 40 30 10
Searcy AR 72 54 69 51 / 10 30 40 20
Stuttgart AR 73 55 69 53 / 20 40 40 20
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...46
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
646 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 454 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a strong mid/upper level
ridge over the Great Lakes region early this morning. Upstream, a
rather vigorous looking shortwave is over se Saskatchewan. Another
shortwave is over the southern Plains. At the sfc, high pres ridge
has shifted e to New England while upstream shortwave is supporting
low pres over Manitoba with associated cold front extending s thru
the eastern Dakotas. Ahead of cold front, radar imagery shows some
returns over eastern SD into nw MN, but at this point, doesn`t
appear to be much more than sprinkles. Closer to home, southerly
winds up Lake MI continue to advect lake modified warmer/higher dwpt
air into the cooler conditions over eastern Upper MI. Just like last
night, this is resulting in stratus and fog, locally dense, roughly
e of a KSAW to KESC line. At this point, coverage of dense fog does
not appear to be as extensive as last night when the interior had
much stronger radiational cooling before the lake modified air
pushed n over the area.
With dense fog not as widespread as yesterday morning and likely to
thin out quicker, will hold off on a dense fog advy this morning.
Attention then turns to the approaching shortwave and cold front
which will reach western Lake Superior this evening and then pass
across Upper MI tonight. Fcst soundings show moisture relatively
lacking today, and not supportive of much if any pcpn reaching the
fcst area. So, see no reason to deviate from model guidance which
does not generate any pcpn until possibly toward evening over the
far w. With an increase in clouds, temps shouldn`t be as high as
yesterday. However, if clouds are slower to arrive, temps will
easily push into the upper 60s/lower 70s away from moderation
downwind of Lake Michigan. For now, fcst will show max temps mostly
in the low/mid 60s. It will also become breezy today with gusts to
20-25mph at at times. Gusts will be higher if the day ends up warmer
than expected.
Models show deep layer forcing for upward motion increasing with
time as shortwave moves to the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Moisture
remains limited, but the increasing deep layer forcing suggests
a narrow band of -shra should begin to fill in along the front as it
sweeps across the area. Question will be how quickly that occurs, but
models, including NCAR ensembles, are in good agreement overall,
suggesting isold to sct -shra w increasing to nmrs e.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016
Continued low impact conditions through the long term.
Some light showers or drizzle with upslope N-NW flow is expected Tue
morning into early afternoon along with breezy conditions.
The next item of any significance is the potential passage of a
trough/cold front Thu and colder air the follows through Fri. Could
see gusty winds near Lake Superior Thu into Fri, especially over the
Keweenaw. 850mb temps possibly as low as -9C would result in lake
effect rain and snow showers Thu night into Fri night, but any
potential accumulations of snow look to be very minor at this time.
A warmer airmass moves back in Sat and Sun, then moderating some on
Mon.
Given uncertainty and overall low impacts, did not make significant
changes to blended initialization.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 646 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016
Fog/VLIFR conditions at KSAW expected to improve to IFR by the valid
time of fcst with VFR to follow an hr or so later. Otherwise, dry
air mass will allow VFR conditions to prevail into the evening hrs
at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Ongoing LLWS at KIWD/KCMX will end by late
morning with sfc winds becoming gusty. All terminals will see gusts
into the 15-25kt range today. Cold front will sweep across the area
tonight with showers eventually developing along/just ahead of it.
At this point, KSAW probably has the best chc of seeing -shra,
though confidence is low, resulting in only VCSH mention. MVFR cigs
should develop late as cooler air/low-level moisture arrive.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 454 AM EST MON NOV 7 2016
Expect winds mostly in the 15-25kt range thru Tue in response to a
cold front that will pass across Lake Superior tonight. Some s to sw
wind gusts up toward 30kt should occur ahead of the front, and then
late tonight into Tue behind the front, nw wind gusts to around 30kt
are more likely to occur over central and eastern Lake Superior.
Winds will become light again Tue night as a high pres ridge
arrives. As the high pres ridge sinks se on Wed and deep low pres
moves e to Hudson Bay, wsw winds will increase across the lake
again, possibly up to gale force over north central Lake Superior
Wed night into Thu. In the wake of a cold front sweeping across the
area Thu, nw gales are a good bet over the e half of Lake Superior
Thu night into Fri morning.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
358 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2016
Currently...
Upper trough which brought some precip to parts of the region
yesterday was located over western Kansas. Low clouds were still
noted over the far eastern plains this morning, however the
remainder of the region was generally clear. Some fog was noted in
the San Luis Valley (SLV).
Today...
As the trough continues to move east, surface flow over the plains
will take on a northerly component as a weak cool front moves south.
Max temps today will be a bit cooler than yesterday, with highs
generally topping out at around 70F along the lower ark rvr valley
and L/M60s on the divides. Valleys will see highs around 60. Winds
could get gusty at times, with north winds at 15 to 30 mph. As for
precip, it will be dry region-wide, except for a slight chance for a
few showers over the southern Sangre De Cristo mtns.
Tonight...
Winds will quickly decrease across the plains after sunset. Skies
will be clear nearly all locations. Exception may be in the
immediate Alamosa area where some local radiational ground fog
develops. Min temps will continue well above normal with lows
remaining above freezing across nearly all of the plains, with lows
mainly in the mid 30s, and 20s in the SLV.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2016
No major changes to the extended forecast with dry conditions
expected to prevail. Ensemble spreads are low until the weekend
with higher forecast confidence in the dry conditions.
Tuesday through Saturday...high pressure is forecast to dominate
the region through this period. This will bring dry conditions to
southern Colorado with generally mostly clear skies. Temperatures
will remain mild with mid 60s to lower 70s across the lower
elevations for highs. These temperatures are running 10 to 15
degrees above normal for this time of year. The coolest day looks
to be Friday, as slightly cooler air will move in across the area
behind a cold front Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows will hover
around the freezing mark, with upper 20s to lower 30s for the
plains.
Sunday...a weak disturbance is forecast to move across the
Northern Plains sending another weak front south across Colorado.
Models are trying to produce isolated showers over the Central
Mountains Sunday afternoon as the wave passes to the north.
Temperatures will remain mild with lower to mid 60s for the
plains. Mozley
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 349 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2016
KALS...
Some ground fog will be the main concern this morning...and possibly
tomorrow morning. Latest ob from KALS has clear skies after a round
of dense fog and low cigs earlier this morning. HRRR guidance shows
drier air advecting into valley but still cannot rule out local
radiational effects allowing for additional local fog forming at
KALS. We may see some more local fog at this site tomorrow morning.
Otherwise...expect VFR conditions along with light winds. /Hodanish
KCOS and KPUB...
VFR next 24h. A weak cool front will move through the area this
morning with breezy north winds developing by late morning, and
continuing through the afternoon. Winds should subside after sunset.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
631 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, MVFR over TX movg into LA attm. Shwrs are
wetting fm the top down w/ ra for KELD/KMLU and yet ending soon
for KSHV/KTXK. A mid level disturbance has good coverage, but the
low levels have been tough to cloud up. The parent low is kicking
out over the S plains now and has more activity approaching the
metroplex. VCSH W for afternoon seems prudent for now. Sfc and
low levels 5-10KTS veer to S/SW on climb with 30-50kts into FLs.
Outlook cigs may linger but FROPA early Wed will dry us out. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The morning water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave that has ejected
NE into extreme Ern TX/Wrn LA/SW AR...ahead of the broad upper trough
that continues to drift E from Wrn KS S into the lower TX Panhandle.
Meanwhile...the sfc analysis depicts a sfc trough along the SE TX
coast this morning...where the more organized convection exists and
overrunning resulting in a large band of -RA extending N across the
Toledo Bend Country into portions of SW AR. The latest runs of the
HRRR suggest that this area of -SHRA will continue to redevelop/expand
as the parent shortwave noted over the middle Red River Valley swings
ENE into SE OK/extreme NE TX/SW AR through mid/late morning...with
this -SHRA saturating the air mass from the top down as additional
dry low level air /depicted in the 00Z KJAN raob/ is advected WNW
today into Ncntrl/NE LA and Scntrl AR. Given these factors...have
beefed up pops to high chance/likely this morning over the
region...with additional convection ongoing across N TX NNW of DFW
expected to spread ENE into the far NW zones later today.
Otherwise...drier air aloft noted on the water vapor imagery should
spread E into E TX beneath the upper trough today...and should taper
the extent of convection over this area as well as Wrn LA by
afternoon. Unfortunately...QPF amounts today should be light...generally
ranging from a tenth to a quarter inch...and will not do much to
alleviate the ongoing drought conditions.
The aforementioned upper trough is progged to become more positive
tilted from OK SW into Wcntrl TX tonight/early Tuesday...an another
upper trough amplifies and absorbs the Srn Plains trough as it digs
SE across the Great Lakes region into the OH Valley. Meanwhile...the
sfc trough along the SE TX coast should begin to shift E and amplify a
bit along the LA coast later tonight/Tuesday...with the attendant H850
inverted trough lifting N into Cntrl/NE LA. This should focus sct
convection Tuesday over these areas as warmer air just above the sfc
is transported N...but the dry air entrainment aloft ahead of the
positive tilt trough and the weak overall shear will again limit
convection organization and QPF amounts. Otherwise...any convection
Tuesday will be more isolated/widely scattered...and have lowered pops
to low and mid chance over the remainder of the area.
The tail end of the Srn Plains trough remains progged by the
NAM/GFS/ECMWF to close off at some point late Tuesday/early Wednesday
over OK and/or TX...retrograding SW across W TX Wednesday into NW old
MX by Thursday. Drier air with the lead upper trough passage will
taper any light -RA from NW to SE Tuesday night...before slightly
cooler but drier air is reinforced swd ahead of sfc ridging over the
Cntrl Plains/Midwest. Temps should remain seasonable through the
remainder of the week...although SW flow aloft well ahead of the NW
old MX closed low should maintain elevated cloud cover over the region
through the remainder of the extended. The ECMWF/GFS do suggest the
low opening up and ejecting E across the Srn Plains Sunday and into
the region Sunday night/Monday but the lack of any significant return
flow/moisture return precludes mention of pops attm. Unfortunately...much
of next week looks to remain dry under dry NW flow aloft.
Prelims to follow below...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 61 70 59 / 60 30 40 30
MLU 74 61 69 58 / 40 50 50 30
DEQ 68 55 68 53 / 60 30 30 20
TXK 69 56 69 55 / 50 30 30 20
ELD 73 56 68 55 / 40 40 50 30
TYR 71 60 70 58 / 50 40 30 20
GGG 73 60 71 58 / 50 30 30 20
LFK 74 62 73 60 / 50 30 30 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
24/15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
125 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
...Updated Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
A gloomy Monday across much of SW Kansas through this afternoon,
as upper trough slowly inches its way into central Kansas. Low
stratus will persist into this evening, except the far western
zones (west of Garden City) where drier air has already allowed
for some sunshine. 12z NAM and HRRR solutions are in good
agreement with wraparound rain affecting the central and eastern
zones this afternoon into the early evening. Did an update earlier
to increase shower coverage to likely in the grids, mainly from
Dodge City eastward, for several hours this afternoon/early
evening. The beginning of this wraparound process is already
evident on KDDC radar imagery, with showers moving due south into
Trego county. More measurable rain expected across roughly the
eastern 1/2 of the CWA through this evening, less than 0.20 inch
at most locales. Might see some isolated lightning SE of Dodge
City this afternoon, but it is unlikely with meager CAPE.
Tonight...Sky will clear progressively from NW to SE as upper
trough departs. Low stratus will persist across the SE zones
including Pratt and Medicine Lodge through sunrise Tuesday. North
winds will remain breezy overnight, as 1035 mb surface high builds
into NW Kansas, with gusts of 25-30 mph at times this evening.
Cool/dry advection and north winds are expected to prevent fog
formation Tuesday morning, even in areas that receive more rain
this afternoon and evening. Lows at sunrise Tuesday ranging from
the mid 30s at Syracuse to near 50 at Kiowa.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
Tuesday...A pleasant fall day for SW KS, with full sun and breezy
north winds, as surface high translates east across Nebraska.
Highs in the lower 60s with north winds of 10-20 mph.
Tuesday night...Finally, the first significant freeze of the
season for much of SW KS. 12z NAM sinks 1033 mb surface high
southward, directly on SW KS sunrise Wednesday. Optimal
radiational cooling expected, and followed the coldest guidance,
well down into the 20s across the NW 1/2 of the CWA. Issued a
freeze watch for these zones, which matches with WFOs Pueblo,
Amarillo, and Wichita. Certainly nothing unusual about a freeze in
mid November, but with the abnormally warm autumn and the growing
season continuing, the freeze headlines are justified. New
12z ECMWF places 1032 mb surface high directly over Dodge City
sunrise Wednesday, so confident 20s will be commmonplace.
It`s a good thing much of SW KS picked up some rain over the
weekend, because another long stretch of dry weather is on the
way. Rex block develops over the southern Rockies on Wednesday,
with a weak closed low burying itself in Far West Texas, and
upper ridging nosing eastward into the central plains. Stellar
fall weather will result, with full sunshine, light winds, and
temperatures near climatology in the lower 60s. This synoptic
pattern will basically hold through Friday, keeping SW KS weather
mild, dry quiet and uneventful. 850 mb temperatures peak on
Thursday, when most of us should reach 70. Far West Texas weak
upper low slowly ejects to the south of SW KS over the coming
weekend, with little if any impact on our weather. Maybe a shower
far SE, but did not include any pops.
12z ECMWF forecasts strongly meridional flow to develop over North
America early next week, with a strong ridge over the Desest SW
and a cold upper low diving into the Great Lakes. The resulting
strong NW flow over Kansas would ensure continued dry weather, and
open the door for possible cold air intrusions from the north.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
Low ceilings, IFR or lower, will persist into this evening. A
period of -SHRA is expected to impact the HYS/DDC terminals during
the 21-03z time frame. 12z NAM/HRRR solutions show wraparound rain
shield into this evening behind slowly departing upper trough.
Poor flying conditions will continue into this evening at
HYS/DDC/P28, with lesser impacts at LBL/GCK. As upper trough
departs tonight, cigs will improve to VFR from NW to SE, with low
cigs hanging on near P28 through 12z Tue. After 15z, expecting SKC
and gusty north winds of 18-28 kts, as 1035 mb surface high builds
into NW Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 41 60 28 / 60 30 10 0
GCK 62 36 61 26 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 67 39 62 31 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 66 39 61 26 / 20 20 0 0
HYS 60 41 58 29 / 80 50 10 0
P28 62 50 62 36 / 60 40 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>078-084>087.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
401 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2016
Early afternoon WV imagery and RAP H5 analysis shows mid to upper
level trough over central Kansas transitioning eastward, with a
distinct mid level circulation just east of our CWA. Large scale
ridging is still in place across the western US and is building
eastward behind the departing upper low. At the surface a cold front is
over our CWA extending from just southeast of KMCK to just south of
KGLD and KITR. Surface high pressure is building southward behind
the from from the northern plains.
This afternoon-Tonight: Light to occasionally moderate showers are
still ongoing along and east of the cold front within deformation
region of H7-H5 low. As the parent upper level system moves eastward
this shower activity should come to an end this evening in our
eastern CWA, with clearing skies northwest to southeast. Overnight
lows will probably drop to freezing in our north and west with a
few colder locations (upper 20s) possible. This is actually within
seasonal normals for early November.
Tuesday: Ridging will transition over our CWA with clear skies and
dry conditions. Cooler air mass will still be in place with surface
high pressure sliding over our eastern CWA (centered north and
east). This keeps light easterly flow in place. Despite the cooler
air mass we are still probably going to warm to 60 or the low 60s
which is 3-5 F above normal for early November.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2016
The models have been consistent the past few days with keeping the
entire extended period dry and under a ridge. There is even evidence
of a Rex Block pattern setting up around Tuesday night. This is due
to another closed low cutting off from the trough moving east and
sitting over the south and southwestern states through the week.
The majority of the week will have high temperatures in the 60s
(which is above average). There will be a slight increase into the
70s on Thursday but a cold front is expected to pass over the region
Thursday night into Friday morning that will drop temperatures back
into the 60s for the remainder of the period. Low temperatures will
average in the mid to upper 30s with some locations in the low 40s
later in the period. Tuesday night does have the coldest
temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. A hard freeze is possible
over some locations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2016
For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Northeast winds near 10kts at taf issuance will back to the
northwest around 04z at similar speeds. This continues through 17z
Tuesday before winds veer to the north then northeast at speeds
around 6kts. No precipitation expected. Should note that KMCK
there is a hint of possibly enough boundary layer moisture coming
down from the north and northeast in the 13z-16z timeframe to
possibly create some mvfr/ifr cigs. Right now will hold off and
see what 00z data shows.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...99
Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
The latest RAP analysis and radar/satellite imagery show high
pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic coast and a cold front
moving east over the northern Mississippi Valley. The cold front is
mostly inactive so far today, with only light returns showing up on
area radars, but no ground truth. Mid and high clouds are
increasing ahead of the front over western Wisconsin. Clouds remain
thin though, so temps are rising close to record highs in a few
locations. As the front moves east tonight, precip chances are the
main forecast concern.
Tonight...The weak cold front will move across the state late this
evening and overnight. Based on 12z RAOBS ahead of the front, the
airmass ahead of the front is quite dry. Stronger forcing does
arrive late tonight when a shortwave strengthens as it digs over
western Lake Superior. So think precip chances will improve through
the night along the front, and will increase chances slightly over
eastern WI. So expect a broken/narrow band of light showers or
sprinkles to move across north-central WI around mid to late
evening, before becoming more solid over northeast WI overnight.
Lows will be warmer than last nights readings thanks to cloud cover,
and range from the low 40s north to near 50 in the east.
Tuesday...The front will be exiting eastern WI late tonight, with
strong mid-level drying occurring behind the front. This should
yield a dry day for most locations. However, shallow low level
moisture will be diving south within thermal troughing at 925mb.
Progged soundings also show steep low level lapse rates under a
fairly strong inversion. So think clouds will scattered to broken
during the morning into early afternoon, before drier air arrives
from the west. Highs cooling off into the upper 40s north to mid
50s south.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
High pressure will bring dry weather and cool temperatures to the
region on Wednesday. Despite the cooler temperatures, highs will
still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year given
the abundant sunshine. As the high tracks east return flow will
bring a return of warm air to the western Great Lakes on Thursday
ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs on Thursday will soar
into the upper 50s to around 60, a good 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for this time of year.
The cold front itself will not pack much of a punch with regards
to precipitation given the extremely limited moisture and its
Pacific origins. However whatever it lacks in moisture it will
make up for in temperatures as 850 mb temperatures tumble from the
middle teens on Thursday, down into the single digits below zero
by Friday. This precipitous dip in temperatures will cause daytime
highs to fall into the 40s Friday and Saturday, with overnight
lows Friday night tumbling into the 20s. Despite these much colder
temperatures, this will only bring temperatures down to
climatological normals for this time of year. There continues to
be a slight chance for showers across the far north on Friday,
however given the limited moisture any showers that form will be
isolated and light in nature.
Return flow in the later half of the weekend will allow
temperatures to rebound into the 50s Sunday and Monday as warmer
air advects into the region. A weak low pressure system is slated
to track through the area sometime early next week, which could
bring a slight chance for showers to the region on Monday. The
weakness of this system and how far out it is in the forecast do
not lend itself to a high degree of confidence in how this system
will evolve. Therefore will stay with the blended model POPs in
the late part of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016
Cirrus will be invading the region from the west this
afternoon ahead of a weak cold front. This front will move across
the region tonight and provide a chance of light showers to all taf
sites. Chances of showers look slightly better over the eastern WI
than farther west, so will show mvfr vsbys associated with the
showers only over the Fox Valley and Lakeshore taf sites. Behind
the front, cigs are likely to lower on Tuesday morning, possibly to
mvfr over north-central WI. But confidence is low of this occurring
due to the dry airmass and a lack of upstream mvfr conditions.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......MPC