Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/06/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
933 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016
Only minor updates at this hour. Main shower band has rotated
north of hour area and a large hole has developed in the clouds
over northeastern Colorado. The next area of lift will be
spreading northward with a slight chance of light rain along the
eastern border later tonight, and an uptick in the weak shower
activity over the mountains as well. Only change at this time is
to acknowledge the current break. The combination of a little wind
and clouds increasing again should hold temperatures near our
current forecast lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016
An upper low located near the Four Corners region this aftn is
progged to move slowly east/northeast through Sunday. For tonight
the flow aloft will continue to be southerly, then the flow aloft
will weaken and become west/northwesterly on Sunday as the trough
moves eastward. Weak mid level qg ascent coupled with some aftn
instability has allowed for sct to nmrs rain and snow showers in
the high country today, especially south of interstate 70. Overall
will maintain sct pops in the mountains overnight. Not much in
the way of accumulating snowfall expected at this time. Across the
northeast plains, isold showers from around denver southward are
progged to weaken as they move northward this aftn and evening.
The latest HRRR runs continue to reflect this trend. Will keep
isold pops in the grids mainly along and south of the interstate
70 corridor. The mdls continue to show low level moisture/stratus
over the eastern plains tonight...and continue to keep it east of
Denver Sunday morning. On Sunday, weak qg ascent will continue
ahead of the upper trough axis with increasing mid level
subsidence fm west to east. Will keep scattered pops in the
mountains through early aftn with isold pops on the far eastern
plains, should see them all decreasing in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016
The potential for showers will diminish over the high country and
far eastern plains Sunday night as a shortwave ridge moves in,
however following close on its heals a shortwave trough will push
in Monday morning. Due to the limited depth of moisture and
downward QG motion, have kept out any chance of precipitation over
the high country, however there may be a few flurries/sprinkles
Monday morning.
A cold front will push south over the plains Monday for highs to
be about 5 degrees cooler. Some clouds in the morning should give
way to mostly clear skies later in the day.
The rest of the week and into the weekend will feature abnormally warm
and dry weather as the strong upper ridge over the western
states and into the Northern Rockies prevails. A weak cool push is
expected Thursday to surge down the plains for a slight cool down.
Otherwise temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
average for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 929 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2016
VFR conditions are expected through Sunday. There is a slight
chance of ceilings lowering to 6000 feet for a few hours Sunday
morning.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1034 PM CDT SAT NOV 5 2016
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a massive
high pressure system centered over the Ohio Valley. Besides just
some wispy cirrus, skies are mostly clear across the region, and
also upstream over the northern Mississippi Valley and Dakotas. With
the surface high moving little through the end of the weekend, temps
and prospects for fog are the main forecast concerns.
High pressure through the column will remain across the region
tonight and Sunday. The airmass within this high remains very dry,
so looking at mostly clear and calm conditions over the period.
These conditions will support another night of ground fog late
tonight into early Sunday morning away from the lake. Because winds
in the boundary layer are weaker than last night, think fog has
potential to be more widespread and dense so increased wording in
the forecast.
Not much change to temps over the next 24 hours. Projected 925mb
temps on Sunday look similar to todays, so highs should continue to
top into the middle to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016
Well above normal temperatures and a few opportunities for light
showers will be the general rule for the upcoming extended period.
A cold front will sweep through the western Great Lakes Monday
night, bringing the chance for light showers late Monday across
the northwest cwa, and through the rest of the area Monday night.
Rain chances will be relatively low given the limited moisture
available to this northern stream system, mainly in the chancy
category.
The push of cold air behind this system will be relatively
unimpressive, with temperatures on Tuesday although they will be
several degrees cooler than Monday, will still be several degrees
above normal for this time of year.
The next system of consequence tracks to the north on Thursday and
brings a cold front through the area during this time period. The
fropa itself will be dry given very limited moisture. However
there will be a chance for some showers across the northern cwa on
Friday behind the front as a mid level shortwave takes advantage
of a favorable fetch for some lake effect moisture to make it into
the column for some rain shower activity. Even with this setup
rain chances will be relatively low given the lack of deep
moisture available to the shortwave.
Some showers are possible in northern Wisconsin on Friday as a
cold front and some mid level short wave energy pass. The front
will bring the coldest daytime highs that the forecast area has
seen for a while. Even so, it will still be warmer than normal
with highs mostly in the 45 to 50 degree range. Temperatures
behind the departing cold front Friday and Saturday will be quite
cool compared to recent temperatures. Despite this cooler weather
temperatures will only cool to around climatological normals for
this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016
Areas of dense ground fog are possible for a few
hours around sunrise Sunday, otherwise clear skies and great
flying weather is expected through Sunday night.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......RDM
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
956 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016
.UPDATE...
At 930 pm, the forecast area was bracketed to the north by a
large blob of rain moving northeast out of the far southern
Panhandle and to the south by a small t-storm complex moving
across the northern Permian Basin. It looks like the srn t-storm
complex will move northeast through Garza County and into the
southern Rolling Plains during the next few hours. Also,
additional showers and a few t-storms were developing in eastern
New Mexico and the western South Plains.
Water vapor imagery suggests that the next shortwave is currently
moving into southwest Texas and southern NM and should be
spreading into our area in the next few hours. Earlier, it looked
like there might be a longer lull in-between the evening round of
activity and the next round early Sunday but now it appears that
the large-scale ascent with this next impulse will arrive sooner
rather than later. The latest HRRR runs have also trended away
from a distinct separate round of storms Sunday morning and appear
to be more scattershot in nature. So the details are a bit
uncertain at this point but we are confident that the area will
remain socked in with low stratus and areas of fog and drizzle
overnight, with showers and a few t-storms roaming the area. We`ve
made some minor updates to the forecast.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/
AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will work across the KLBB and
KPVW terminals in the next couple of hours. Otherwise, we expect
low stratus and periods of light fog and/or drizzle to keep the
area terminals socked in with IFR to LIFR conditions through at
least 12 UTC Sunday. Another round of -TSRA is expected to move
across the area Sunday morning, and there may be some lifting of
ceilings and improvement in flight conditions in the wake of the
storms. However, IFR to MVFR ceilings are likely to persist
through the day.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/
SHORT TERM...
Favorable lift continued to expand into our western zones this
afternoon ahead of an upper low centered over the Four Corners.
Axis of 300 mb diffluence downstream of this low extended from about
Carlsbad to Vega complete with scattered to numerous showers and
storms. Confidence in this activity progressing eastward over
much of the CWA this evening is high as the mean trough axis
shifts the diffluence more squarely overhead, but there should be
some lull overnight following this first round of precip in
anticipation of downglide/subsidence in the wake of the lift.
Elevated CAPE is already around 500 J/kg in our SW zones where
some pea hail is likely at times with storms. Outside of precip,
moist upslope winds and a cooling boundary layer seem legit once
again for very low stratus and areas of fog overnight.
The second bout of precip should emerge in eastern NM toward 12z
Sun as the base of the upper trough rotates eastward. WPC and non-
NAM guidance are tending to focus more convection in the Permian
Basin and southern Rolling Plains with this latter wave, so have
adjusted PoPs accordingly. Steady mid-level drying unfolds west of
this progressive trough axis on Sun, so PoPs over the western half of
the CWA were scaled back in tune with much less QPF per WPC. This
drying should translate to some erosion of stratus in our W-SW
areas and milder max temps compared to our NE counties.
LONG TERM...
Trough axis will be transiting the area Sunday evening with
ridging building in to our west on Monday and Tuesday. However,
indications are some trailing energy may persist across the area
or just to our south/southeast as this weekend`s weather maker
makes it toward the Great Lakes. In fact, more than one solution
tries to re-establish a cut-off low over Texas or northern Mexico
by late week. Unfortunately, the details are widely disparate.
We`ll have some degree of cloudiness for much of the extended
as there does not appear to be much of a synoptic means to clear
out the moisture in its entirety until perhaps next weekend.
Thunderstorm activity looks as if it will persist during the
evening hours likely thinning out in the eastern counties around
daybreak Monday. However, some solutions do protract the
precipitation potential through Monday night in a scattered
fashion as the next cold front makes its way into the region
Monday afternoon. Cooler and drier air will filter into the
region Tue/Wed. Another cold front comes on Friday though the
timing will be quite variant on the evolution of the synoptic
picture. At present, the ECM is significantly divergent with its
handling of the upper level pattern. All in all, a disturbed
weather pattern will continue much of the week.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
223 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2016
A weakening upper level low over northwest Colorado will continue to
lift northeast today. A moist southerly flow ahead of it will
increase moisture and bring showers to the eastern plains of
Colorado today. Latest HRRR runs and radar trends favor the
showers passing just east of the forecast area. Will have low pops
for eastern areas in case showers end up a little farther west.
Due to more cloud cover today, expect slightly cooler temperatures
over the eastern plains. The Front Range should see similar
temperatures as yesterday.
For the mountains, satellite and web cameras showing areas of low
clouds and fog in the mountains this morning. As the upper level low
continues to lift northeast, moisture is expected to slowly decrease
through the afternoon and evening. May be enough moisture and lift
to produce a few light showers and will keep the isolated/scattered
pops for the mountains through early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2016
A strong upper level ridge/trough blocking pattern across the
continental US will likely result in few day-to-day changes on our
weather. Although models do indicate slight cooling on Thursday
with retrogression in the upper ridge over the Rocky Mtn region
which will allow nwly flow aloft to advance a dry cold front
southward across the northern and central high plains. Prior to
its arrival...warming aloft will combine with abundant sunshine
and southerly bndry layer flow to send the mercury above the 70
deg mark for many locales on the nern plains of CO Wednesday. It`s
fortunate that wind speeds will be light on Wednesday with the
unseasonably warm temperatures...low RH values and very dry fuels.
Thursday and Friday temperatures should be cooler east of the
mtns within the post-frontal environment...as much as 4-7 deg f
cooler than the day before. Mtn and high valley locations should
see little cooling. By Saturday models show the upper ridge axis
shifting east back over the Rocky Mtn region leading to another
warmup going into the weekend. Bottom line...the prospect for
measurable precipitation...for that matter mtn snowfall...during
the 2-7 day outlook period appears bleak.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 223 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with mid
and high clouds at times. Winds will remain on the light side and
generally less than 15 knots.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Meier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
400 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Challenging short term forecast with a lot of bust potential. Much
like the past several days...POPs continue to be the primary
forecast challenge. Water vapor imagery indicates a steady stream
of moisture advecting into the region from the tropical EPAC with
little variation in this moisture advection expected to change
during the next 36 hours. Closer to S TX...modest low level to
near surface moisture advection is ongoing from the Gulf of
Mexico which...combined with moisture aloft...is resulting in deep
moisture values running around two standard deviations above
normal for early November. This deep moisture...combined with
several vort maxes advecting towards the CWA...and an increasingly
potent H25 jet...should result in cloudy and potentially wet
periods today through Monday.
Today...a large area of moderate to heavy rainfall has developed
/as of writing/ along the Middle and Northern Coastal Bend. What
effect this ongoing precip has on today/s weather remains
uncertain. There is a chance that some DNVA to the SW side of the
precip shield may negate precip development this morning. A few
CAMs have captured this ongoing precip overnight /particularly the
00z TTU Wrf and some runs of the HRRR and RAP/. The 06z NAM and
to an extent the 00z ECMWF have also captured the ongoing precip.
With that said...these particular guidance suites quickly diverge
in regards to their handling of additional precip this morning.
The TTU Wrf and NAM want to develop additional convection across
primarily the eastern half of S TX this morning /as a stronger H5
vort max approaches the region from the west/ while the
HRRR...RAP...and GFS indicate strengthening subsidence in wake of
this early morning/s precip. This obviously presents a forecast
challenge. Given the amount of moisture depth...minor diurnal
warming later this morning...and approaching upper level
dynamics...I feel a continuation of likely POPs can be justified
for the eastern half of the CWA. Latest runs of the NARRE-TL also
indicate additional development is expected this morning. So...for
now...I have likely POPs for this morning /probably closer to mid
morning through early afternoon/ for the Coastal Plains with
categorical POPs for the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria
area....with overall precip chances diminishing by mid to late
afternoon. Farther west...a brief shot of light rain to scattered
showers will exist this morning across the Brush Country as vort
max approaches the area...but chances should diminish quickly this
afternoon as the vort max begins to kick east away from the Brush
Country. Max temps are strongly dependent upon amount of precip
that occurs today...but should generally be cooler than Saturday
/yet still humid/.
Tonight...Forecast is not any easier. A strong 80kt H25 jet streak
is prog by global models to nose into the region with additional
vort maxes advecting towards the area. However...some of the
deeper low level moisture is prog to begin to shift east which may
potentially limit the amount of precip that occurs. Much of the
Brush Country may very well remain dry this evening as deeper
moisture is shifted eastward...with much of the eastern areas not
expecting better precip chances until after midnight. With greater
moisture depth prog to be over the Coastal Plains to Victoria
tonight...I have good chance to likely POPs after midnight for
these areas /especially across the coastal counties/. ECMWF goes
bonkers with widespread precip after midnight across these
areas...but attm feel it is overproducing given the rip upper
level dynamics and unseasonably high moisture depth.
Monday...Strong H25 jet streak remains in play but best LLVL
moisture depth continues to be shifted eastward. Have carried
chance POPs for the day...with highest chances across the east
given deeper moisture values /when compared to the Brush Country/.
Best coverage /scattered/ will likely be during the afternoon when
max diurnal warming is occurring.
Am only expecting isolated thunder through the short term period
as instability will be primary limiting factor. However...upper
level dynamics do argue for some inclusion of thunder. Locally
heavy rainfall may also occur at times with stronger showers given
high moisture depth...with some isolated locations possibly
receiving 1 to 3 inches of rain.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...
ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Mean were in more agreement with the short
wave trough moving south through the southern Rockies Monday night
forming an upper low over Chihuahua/Far West Texas by Wednesday
morning. This upper low will be very slow to move out with a rex
block pattern occurring with ridge to the north over the Rockies.
The upper low may lift out to the northeast a bit by Saturday. A
strong upper level jet will be over Mexico into south Texas Monday
night into Tuesday. High moisture will continue to be over the
region Monday night for scattered convection to occur. Slightly
drier air will work into the region from the north as a surface
trough axis moves into the coastal waters. This will diminish PoPs
to slight chance over the northern counties Tuesday. This slightly
drier air in the lower levels will remain over inland areas Tuesday
night into Wednesday night and will keep PoPs at slight chance for
inland areas while chance PoPs will persist over the coastal waters.
GFS and ECMWF show another upper level jet streak moving out of
Mexico into the region as the upper low sits over northern Mexico
Thursday. Moisture may increase slightly by Thursday as the upper
level energy moves across Thursday into Friday. Will show chance
PoPs for the coastal plains Thursday through Friday. This could
continue into Saturday as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 82 69 83 66 80 / 70 60 40 40 30
Victoria 79 65 80 63 78 / 90 50 50 40 20
Laredo 83 68 84 66 80 / 40 20 30 30 30
Alice 83 66 83 64 80 / 60 40 30 40 30
Rockport 81 70 82 67 79 / 80 60 50 40 30
Cotulla 80 66 82 64 79 / 40 30 30 40 20
Kingsville 83 68 84 65 80 / 60 50 40 40 30
Navy Corpus 82 71 83 68 78 / 70 60 40 40 40
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
229 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
While a touch usual for the early November, highs will continue
to be in the mid to upper 60s today and Monday with mostly sunny
skies both days. Areas of fog this morning will burn off during
the mid to late morning. Some fog is expected Sunday night into
Monday morning too.
A cold front will cross the area on Tuesday and bring the chance
of showers to the area but what showers there will be are expected
to be light and mostly during the mid morning hours. This cold
front will bring temperatures closer to normal for Wed and
Thursday. A significantly stronger cold front will come through
the area by Friday morning bringing a few more showers but more
seasonably cooler temperatures. In fact it may get cold enough
that we may see snow showers or mixed rain and snow showers Friday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
There are two forecast concerns early this morning. First it the
threat for dense fog this morning around sunrise then there is the
issue of showers Tuesday morning with the cold front.
First the fog issue, the HRRR, RAP model and NAM like the idea of
dense fog by sunrise north of I-96 this morning. At this point the
area of dense fog does not seem extensive enough for an advisory
to be issued.
As for the cold front and the threat of showers, it surely seems
possible. The precipitable water surges to near 1 inches (well
above normal for this time of year), just ahead of the cold front.
The 1000/850 moisture transport vectors look good for showers
Tuesday morning too. The only real issue is the best dynamics
seems to be farther north. So for now I will go along with the
chance (30 pct) for showers Tuesday morning but my guess would be
we will be increasing that to likely by Tuesday morning.
One other issue is the high temperatures have been warmer than the
models have been forecasting and given the sunshine and upper
ridging, I have no reason to believe today or Monday should be
any cooler than Saturday so I increased the highs around 3
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 229 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
Fairly quiet weather is expected during the long term. High pressure
will build into the Great Lakes Tuesday night behind the departing
cold front. We`ll see quite a bit of sunshine Wednesday and
Thursday. Winds will increase late Thursday as a clipper moves
across the Straits and Georgian Bay. A cold front front will move
south across Lower Michigan behind the clipper and the medium range
models are painting some pcpn late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. Given the cold temps in place we included a slight chance
of mixed rain/snow for the eastern cwa during this time. Chances are
pretty though, given the track of the clipper well north of the cwa.
Temperatures Friday will top out around 50 and will only reach the
mid 40s Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Nov 6 2016
Look for vsbys to fall to a quarter mile or less through 8am at
MKG and a half mile at GRR, AZO, BTL and around 3sm at LAN/JXN.
Conditons will improve as the morning progresses. Another round of
dense fog is possible again tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 229 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
Light winds will prevail till the cold front moves into the area
Tuesday. We may need a SCA then. The fog over the near shore does
not seem extensive enough to issue a headline this morning but
we will continue to monitor this.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1155 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016
The Maple River at Maple Rapids is the only site affected by an
advisory. Most river sites continue to rapidly improve with mostly
dry weather slated over the next week.
The only question with regards to rainfall is late Monday night
into the early portion of Tuesday. This will be associated with a
quick moving cold front and will likely be less than one-tenth of
an inch. No additional flooding is forecast.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
541 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
.DISCUSSION...Update for 12z Aviation.
&&
.AVIATION...Precip chances to be primary WX impact to area
flights. Xpctng sct to numerous SHRA thru the day across primarily
KCRP to KVCT. Timing of precip is uncertain...but best coverage
currently xpctd to be this mrng thru early/mid aftn. Less
coverage xpctd at KALI but still enough for VCSH...with only brief
period of light mrng precip /but also low CIGs/ possible at KLRD.
Elsewhere...MVFR CIGs possible this mrng before returning to VFR
this aftn...with additional MVFR CIGs and MVFR/IFR VSBYs under
heaviest precip. Thunderstorms possible..but should be isolated
given lack of instability. Additional precip may redvlp late in
the TAF period along the coast and near KCRP. Weak Erly sfc winds
becmg more ESErly around 10kts.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 400 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Challenging short term forecast with a lot of bust potential. Much
like the past several days...POPs continue to be the primary
forecast challenge. Water vapor imagery indicates a steady stream
of moisture advecting into the region from the tropical EPAC with
little variation in this moisture advection expected to change
during the next 36 hours. Closer to S TX...modest low level to
near surface moisture advection is ongoing from the Gulf of
Mexico which...combined with moisture aloft...is resulting in deep
moisture values running around two standard deviations above
normal for early November. This deep moisture...combined with
several vort maxes advecting towards the CWA...and an increasingly
potent H25 jet...should result in cloudy and potentially wet
periods today through Monday.
Today...a large area of moderate to heavy rainfall has developed
/as of writing/ along the Middle and Northern Coastal Bend. What
effect this ongoing precip has on today/s weather remains
uncertain. There is a chance that some DNVA to the SW side of the
precip shield may negate precip development this morning. A few
CAMs have captured this ongoing precip overnight /particularly the
00z TTU Wrf and some runs of the HRRR and RAP/. The 06z NAM and
to an extent the 00z ECMWF have also captured the ongoing precip.
With that said...these particular guidance suites quickly diverge
in regards to their handling of additional precip this morning.
The TTU Wrf and NAM want to develop additional convection across
primarily the eastern half of S TX this morning /as a stronger H5
vort max approaches the region from the west/ while the
HRRR...RAP...and GFS indicate strengthening subsidence in wake of
this early morning/s precip. This obviously presents a forecast
challenge. Given the amount of moisture depth...minor diurnal
warming later this morning...and approaching upper level
dynamics...I feel a continuation of likely POPs can be justified
for the eastern half of the CWA. Latest runs of the NARRE-TL also
indicate additional development is expected this morning. So...for
now...I have likely POPs for this morning /probably closer to mid
morning through early afternoon/ for the Coastal Plains with
categorical POPs for the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria
area....with overall precip chances diminishing by mid to late
afternoon. Farther west...a brief shot of light rain to scattered
showers will exist this morning across the Brush Country as vort
max approaches the area...but chances should diminish quickly this
afternoon as the vort max begins to kick east away from the Brush
Country. Max temps are strongly dependent upon amount of precip
that occurs today...but should generally be cooler than Saturday
/yet still humid/.
Tonight...Forecast is not any easier. A strong 80kt H25 jet streak
is prog by global models to nose into the region with additional
vort maxes advecting towards the area. However...some of the
deeper low level moisture is prog to begin to shift east which may
potentially limit the amount of precip that occurs. Much of the
Brush Country may very well remain dry this evening as deeper
moisture is shifted eastward...with much of the eastern areas not
expecting better precip chances until after midnight. With greater
moisture depth prog to be over the Coastal Plains to Victoria
tonight...I have good chance to likely POPs after midnight for
these areas /especially across the coastal counties/. ECMWF goes
bonkers with widespread precip after midnight across these
areas...but attm feel it is overproducing given the rip upper
level dynamics and unseasonably high moisture depth.
Monday...Strong H25 jet streak remains in play but best LLVL
moisture depth continues to be shifted eastward. Have carried
chance POPs for the day...with highest chances across the east
given deeper moisture values /when compared to the Brush Country/.
Best coverage /scattered/ will likely be during the afternoon when
max diurnal warming is occurring.
Am only expecting isolated thunder through the short term period
as instability will be primary limiting factor. However...upper
level dynamics do argue for some inclusion of thunder. Locally
heavy rainfall may also occur at times with stronger showers given
high moisture depth...with some isolated locations possibly
receiving 1 to 3 inches of rain.
LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday)...
ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Mean were in more agreement with the short
wave trough moving south through the southern Rockies Monday night
forming an upper low over Chihuahua/Far West Texas by Wednesday
morning. This upper low will be very slow to move out with a rex
block pattern occurring with ridge to the north over the Rockies.
The upper low may lift out to the northeast a bit by Saturday. A
strong upper level jet will be over Mexico into south Texas Monday
night into Tuesday. High moisture will continue to be over the
region Monday night for scattered convection to occur. Slightly
drier air will work into the region from the north as a surface
trough axis moves into the coastal waters. This will diminish PoPs
to slight chance over the northern counties Tuesday. This slightly
drier air in the lower levels will remain over inland areas Tuesday
night into Wednesday night and will keep PoPs at slight chance for
inland areas while chance PoPs will persist over the coastal waters.
GFS and ECMWF show another upper level jet streak moving out of
Mexico into the region as the upper low sits over northern Mexico
Thursday. Moisture may increase slightly by Thursday as the upper
level energy moves across Thursday into Friday. Will show chance
PoPs for the coastal plains Thursday through Friday. This could
continue into Saturday as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 82 69 83 66 80 / 70 60 40 40 30
Victoria 79 65 80 63 78 / 90 50 50 40 20
Laredo 83 68 84 66 80 / 40 20 30 30 30
Alice 83 66 83 64 80 / 60 40 30 40 30
Rockport 81 70 82 67 79 / 80 60 50 40 30
Cotulla 80 66 82 64 79 / 40 30 30 40 20
Kingsville 83 68 84 65 80 / 60 50 40 40 30
Navy Corpus 82 71 83 68 78 / 70 60 40 40 40
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
RH/79...AVIATION
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
745 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Marine
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
While a touch usual for the early November, highs will continue
to be in the mid to upper 60s today and Monday with mostly sunny
skies both days. Areas of fog this morning will burn off during
the mid to late morning. Some fog is expected Sunday night into
Monday morning too.
A cold front will cross the area on Tuesday and bring the chance
of showers to the area but what showers there will be are expected
to be light and mostly during the mid morning hours. This cold
front will bring temperatures closer to normal for Wed and
Thursday. A significantly stronger cold front will come through
the area by Friday morning bringing a few more showers but more
seasonably cooler temperatures. In fact it may get cold enough
that we may see snow showers or mixed rain and snow showers Friday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
There are two forecast concerns early this morning. First it the
threat for dense fog this morning around sunrise then there is the
issue of showers Tuesday morning with the cold front.
First the fog issue, the HRRR, RAP model and NAM like the idea of
dense fog by sunrise north of I-96 this morning. At this point the
area of dense fog does not seem extensive enough for an advisory
to be issued.
As for the cold front and the threat of showers, it surely seems
possible. The precipitable water surges to near 1 inches (well
above normal for this time of year), just ahead of the cold front.
The 1000/850 moisture transport vectors look good for showers
Tuesday morning too. The only real issue is the best dynamics
seems to be farther north. So for now I will go along with the
chance (30 pct) for showers Tuesday morning but my guess would be
we will be increasing that to likely by Tuesday morning.
One other issue is the high temperatures have been warmer than the
models have been forecasting and given the sunshine and upper
ridging, I have no reason to believe today or Monday should be
any cooler than Saturday so I increased the highs around 3
degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 229 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
Fairly quiet weather is expected during the long term. High pressure
will build into the Great Lakes Tuesday night behind the departing
cold front. We`ll see quite a bit of sunshine Wednesday and
Thursday. Winds will increase late Thursday as a clipper moves
across the Straits and Georgian Bay. A cold front front will move
south across Lower Michigan behind the clipper and the medium range
models are painting some pcpn late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. Given the cold temps in place we included a slight chance
of mixed rain/snow for the eastern cwa during this time. Chances are
pretty though, given the track of the clipper well north of the cwa.
Temperatures Friday will top out around 50 and will only reach the
mid 40s Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
Solid LOW IFR at MKG most of the night and into the early morning
hours, this will lift to nearly clear skies by noon but it does
look like more dense fog will develop (as seen on RAP and NAM
bufkit time sections).
Elsewhere and otherwise the fog has not been nearly as dense or
persistent. The RAP and HRRR both show the fog becoming more
extensive once the sun comes up and starts mixing the air (more
moist just above the ground). I would think the densest fog would
be in the 13z to 15z time frame. Given we are now in mid November
and with such a low sun angle it may take till late morning to mix
this fog out. Skies should be clear this afternoon.
Fog is expected to redevelop at MKG but the other TAF sites, due
to stronger boundary layer winds should only see mist (3-5sm br)
overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 745 AM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
I issued a marine dense fog advisory till noon from Grand Haven
to whitehall till noon. This idea is based on the RAP and HRRR fog
forecast which has been doing great over the past few hours and
this suggests the fog will last until nearly noon before it moves
off shore. The fog may come back tonight, that will have to be
watched.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1155 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2016
The Maple River at Maple Rapids is the only site affected by an
advisory. Most river sites continue to rapidly improve with mostly
dry weather slated over the next week.
The only question with regards to rainfall is late Monday night
into the early portion of Tuesday. This will be associated with a
quick moving cold front and will likely be less than one-tenth of
an inch. No additional flooding is forecast.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for LMZ846>848.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
911 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
.UPDATE...
Shaved down precip chances a bit for today for the northeastern
half of the area as the first wave of rain appears to have
succumbed to lingering dry air as it moved northeast of the
Matagorda Bay area. However, this should only necessitate a small
reduction in PoPs, as the environment still does not look to be
best over SE Texas until much later today. The HRRR and RAP are
somewhat worrying, as it hits the area with a batch of rain not
present at the current forecast hour and then goes relatively dry
afterwards. However, the 12Z NAM still provides rain, as does the
06Z TTU WRF, and even the previously dry NCAR WRF ensemble bring
in a shield of rain late this afternoon into tonight. So now we
wait for rain and what dry air is left to do battle again...
Luchs
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for most of today and this evening.
Confidence regarding the timing and location of showers and
thunderstorms is moderate at best. There was an area of showers
with embedded thunderstorms moving up the coast from Matagorda
Bay. The models differed on the timing and location to where these
storms will end up later today. A consensus of the shorter range
high resolution models means better chances for this morning and
afternoon. The global models were showing better chances tonight
and Monday. Given the dynamics of the upper level system
approaching the state from the west, but taking in mind the short
range models, introduced chances for showers this morning and kept
best chances tonight.
Confidence for the onset of MVFR or lower conditions tonight is
low to moderate. There was a difference between models with the
NAM the more aggressive and the GFS keeping mainly VFR conditions
in place through the night. Went with a blend of the models and
guidance.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/
DISCUSSION...
At 1 AM, surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley was ridging
into SE TX. A deep upper level low was located over the Four
Corners region and the flow aloft over Texas was becoming
increasingly divergent. At 850 mb, a strong high pressure system
was located over Missouri. A strong surge of moisture was oriented
NW to SE across the state from about Amarillo to Corpus Christi. A
narrow ribbon of 12-14 C dew pts extended from CRP to BRO and out
over the Gulf. The upper low will gradually move east today and
tonight and showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more
numerous today as the flow aloft becomes more diffluent and
moisture levels continue to climb. Radar is showing an expanding
area of shra/tsra over the Middle Texas Coast and this area of
precip will be working it`s way north this morning. Tapered PoPs
with the higher values to the SW and lower to NE today as the
upper low edges eastward.
The upper low gets closer tonight and jet dynamics begin to kick
in with a nice split in the 300 mb winds and the approach of an 80
kt speed max. SE TX will lie a LFQ tonight through Monday so would
expect a continuation of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the
rainfall totals between today and Monday evening could be locally
heavy. That said, the GFS fcst soundings show a bit more dry air
in the soundings and PW values are now progged to remain about
1.60 inches instead of the 1.90 inches progged yesterday. Will
maintain the likely PoPs for tonight and Monday and have leaned
toward the wetter ECMWF/GEM.
The GFS and ECMWF differ rather significantly Tuesday and beyond
as the GFS shears the upper low out leaving a weak and poorly
defined weakness over W TX. The ECMWF also leaves some energy to
the southwest but it is stronger with the feature. The ECMWF would
suggest a continuation of the precip as isentropic upglide
begins. The GFS flow aloft is more zonal and isentropic upglide
would be minimal. FWIW, the GEM favors the ECMWF upper pattern and
the GFS precip pattern. Not much confidence going forward but feel
that with a weakness to our west and NE sfc winds, there should be
some isentropic upglide component and will lean toward the wetter
ECMWF. Temps will trend cooler during the second half of the week
due to NE sfc winds and the added cloud cover. Another strong
disturbance will approach the area late Fri or Sat and bring SE TX
another chance of precip with temps trending much cooler for next
Sunday in the wake of this feature. 43
MARINE...
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will become likely later today
and tonight which will then persist through Monday. Main impacts
will be gusty winds in and near any storms that develop.
Easterly are expected on Monday with northeasterly developing for
Tuesday. For tonight/early Monday morning and again Monday
night/early Tuesday morning the winds will help tide levels to reach
to about 1 foot above normal. This will mean that the higher than
normal tides may affect portions of the Bolivar Peninsula during the
times of high tides.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 64 74 60 73 / 50 70 60 40 30
Houston (IAH) 79 66 75 62 76 / 60 70 60 40 40
Galveston (GLS) 78 71 76 68 75 / 60 70 60 50 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
423 AM PST Sun Nov 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A dissipating weather system may produce local light
rain this morning, mainly in the North Bay. Otherwise expect dry
and slightly cooler weather. High pressure will build across
California starting on Monday, and result in dry weather along
with warmer than normal temperatures through at least Thursday.
Rain chances return by late Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As of 2:40 AM PST Sunday...A weak front mostly
dissipated before making its way into the North Bay last evening.
Only a few locations in Sonoma and Marin counties picked up
measurable rain. Where rain has fallen, amounts have been less
than a tenth of an inch. The WRF and HRRR models continue to show
scattered light precipitation across the North Bay through at
least mid morning. Given that the front has already dissipated,
would be inclined to ignore these models and take rain chances out
of the forecast this morning. However, satellite shows an area of
colder cloud tops offshore associated with a weak shortwave trough
approaching the North Bay. So will keep slight rain chances in the
North Bay through this morning, Any rain that does fall today is
expected to be very light. Low level moisture is forecast to
linger over the area today and clouds will probably be slow to
clear. Thus, expect temperatures today to be cooler, especially
across the northern half of the forecast area.
An upper level ridge is forecast to build over the southwestern
United States by Monday afternoon. Subsidence under this ridge
will result in more sun and warmer temperatures on Monday. The
ridge is then expected to maintain dry and mild weather across our
area through at least Thursday. The medium range models agree
that the ridge may weaken enough late in the week to allow a
Pacific weather system to produce light rain across the northern
part of our area sometime between Friday afternoon and Saturday
morning. Otherwise the general idea from the longer range models
is for a persistent upper ridge over or near California through
the middle of the month and thus continued dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 4:15 AM PDT Sunday...A weak front dissipating
over the area has been bringing some light showers to the far
reaches of north bay this morning, otherwise conditions have
remained dry across the area with mainly vfr to mvfr at the
regions airports. Mid level moisture may cloud in the region
through the day, so have kept some cigs in but mainly above 3kft
for the afternoon. This should clear out by early evening allowing
for vfr overnight. Some residual moisture may cause a few pockets
of slightly reduced vsby.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR/MVFR today due to cigs. Cigs are expected
to lift through the late morning and into the afternoon. Light
winds through much of the day.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR/MVFR today due to cigs.
&&
.BEACHES...as of 4:15 AM PDT Sunday...High surf advisory remains
in place and has been nudged to 9 am for expiration. Swell seems
to have peaked this morning in the 15 to 17 ft range at 16 seconds
with current buoy obs showing 13 to 15 ft at 15 seconds. This is a
bit larger and later than models had forecast. Thus the reason for
the nudge on expiration. Swell heights of this range will cause
breakers to reach upwards of 20 ft. The highest waves will be at
beaches with the greatest west-northwest exposure. Conditions
will begin to subside this afternoon then bottom out on Monday.
However, due to an active storm track across the North Pacific, we
are expecting another swell train to reach the coast Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Current data indicates that the swell could peak
around 12 to 15 feet at 17 seconds. We will be watching this over
the coming days to see how it shapes up.
Never turn your back on the ocean. During high surf events, remain
farther back from the waters edge than you would normally.
&&
.MARINE...as of 03:45 AM PST Sunday...Winds will remain light to
moderate across the central california coastal waters through
midweek. a dissipating front will today will give way to weak high
pressure on monday. an approaching front will turn winds southerly
by midweek...but are expected to be light as the front pulls off
into the pacific northwest. large swell will continue in the
coastal waters through today then begin diminishing this
afternoon. large swell will again move through the coastal waters
late tuesday through wednesday.
&&
.BEACHES...
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...High Surf Advisory...Entire Coast
SCA...Mry Bay until 9 AM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 AM
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 9 AM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 AM
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 AM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 9 AM
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 9 AM
SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION: BFG
MARINE: BFG
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
246 PM EST Sun Nov 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the
week. A weak cold front will then move through Wednesday night with
a stronger cold front potentially moving through over the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will remain anchored to the region tonight. A few
sprinkles can not be completely ruled out along parts of coastal
McIntosh County for the remainder of the afternoon, but the dry
sub-cloud layer noted on RAP soundings at Sapelo Island suggest
the risk for measurable rainfall is too small to justify a
mentionable pop. Thick stratocumulus affecting the Georgia coast
will dissipate this evening, leaving only thin cirrus traversing
Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia overnight. Lows
will range from the lower 40s well inland to the upper 50s/near
60 along at the beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: A strong and deep mid/upper level ridge
will remain in place across the eastern CONUS through Monday night.
Surface high pressure over New England will slip southward into the
Carolinas and deep dry air will prevail resulting in a rain free
forecast. Skies will generally be clear, with mainly thing high
clouds streaming through. Temperatures won`t change much, with
daytime highs ranging in the low to mid 70s. Overnight, look for
lows in the low 40s inland to around 50 at the coast.
Tuesday through Wednesday: The upper ridge will de-amplify and weaken
in response to a vigorous mid/upper level trough digging across the
Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region. High pressure at the
surface will weaken and become suppressed to the south through
Wednesday morning, and a weak cold front will begin to push through
during the day. Such a scenario is generally supported by the
majority of models, though the GFS shows a much stronger upper wave
that digs to a much lower latitude on Wednesday. If this were to
occur, there would be an argument for rain chances on Wednesday.
However, the forecast favors the model consensus and is rain free.
Clouds will increase on Wednesday with the approach of the
aforementioned trough. Temperatures through mid week are expected to
be at or a few degrees below climo.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak/dry cold front is expected to move through the area
Wednesday night followed by high pressure until another
stronger cold front likely moves through at some point from
Friday night through Saturday night. Again moisture appears
limited and thus rain chances should be very low. Temperatures
will be on a warming trend through Friday ahead of the front and
then will be on a cooling trend behind the front, probably
dropping slightly below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through 07/18z.
Extended Aviation Outlook: High confidence in mainly VFR
conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Data suggest seas have dropped below 6 ft over the Georgia
offshore leg so the Small Craft Advisory will be cancelled.
Tonight: Elevated winds will persist tonight within a tightening
pressure gradient induced by high pressure building south. Winds
of 15-20 kt will prevail for much of the local marine area
outside of the Charleston Harbor with seas 2-4 ft nearshore
waters and 4-5 ft offshore waters.
Monday through Friday: High pressure inland will continue to drive
persistent northeast flow across the local waters through Tuesday.
In fact, winds will be solidly in the 15-20 knot range Monday and
part of Monday night, and could become marginally supportive of a
Small Craft Advisory for portions of the waters. The gradient will
relax thereafter and a cold front will push through Wednesday night.
Winds will turn northerly and then become more westerly through the
end of the week. Seas will be at their highest Monday and Monday
night, ranging 3-5 feet out to 20 nm and 5-7 feet beyond.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar will remain down until further notice due to a
hardware problem. Actions are being taken to restore service as
soon as possible, but a restoration time is unknown at this
time.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a large
high pressure system stretching from Quebec to the southeast Gulf
Coast early this afternoon. This high continues to be the main
influence on our weather, with mainly sunny skies in such a dry
airmass. Many locations are approaching or surpassing their record
highs for the day. Looking upstream, clouds are increasing this
afternoon ahead of the next cold front, which is now entering the
western Dakotas. Clouds and temps are the main forecast concern
until this front arrives on Monday night.
The sprawling high pressure system will be moving to the east coast
at the same time as a weak cold front moves across the northern
Plains and into the northern Mississippi Valley by Monday afternoon.
With the high moving away, the pressure gradient will be tightening
somewhat, causing boundary layer winds to be higher than the past
couple nights. This should limit fog potential tonight and guidance
only gives a small chance near Lake Michigan. Otherwise, should see
another clear and quiet night.
Mid and high clouds will be on the increase across the region ahead
of the approaching front. Though progged soundings show that the
atmosphere struggles to saturate below 15 kft, moisture does start
to increase around 10 kft late in the afternoon. So think could see
a few sprinkles approach western Vilas and Oneida counties after 21z.
925mb temps are a few degrees colder in the nam/ecmwf tomorrow
afternoon. With the increase in cloud cover, think highs in the
low to mid 60s sounds about right.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
A cold front will bring showers to the area as it tracks through
the western Great Lakes on Monday night. The cold front will user
in a cooler airmass for Tuesday, however temperatures will still
be well above normal for this time of year. High pressure building
in across the Great Lakes will bring dry weather much of the work
week, as temperatures continue to slowly climb as the week
progresses.
Another cold front will track through the western Great Lakes late
on Thursday into Thursday night. Despite the passage of the front,
rain chances will not arrive until Friday when a shortwave tracks
through the region and takes advantage of deeper moisture afforded
by lake moisture. Even then rain chances will be low and limited
to the north closer to the lake moisture itself. This cold front
will bring an even colder airmass to the region Friday and
Saturday as temperatures return to near normal levels as high
temperatures are limited to the 40s. This dip in temperatures will
be short lived, as temperatures rebound back to above normal by
Sunday on the backside of a retreating high pressure system.
&&
.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016
High pressure will finally depart the region to the east
coast during the taf period. Skies will remain clear for the region
until late tonight into Monday when high clouds invade the region
from the west ahead of the next front. This front will bring the
next chance of precip, but not until Monday night. With stronger
winds arriving above the inversion tonight, the threat of fog will
be low.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......MPC