Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/04/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1050 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
The main forecast concern for tonight is how widespread the fog
will be located across the area. The soundings continue to differ
on the amount of winds and moisture below 900 mb. Both the GFS
and RAP have a bit more wind than the NAM. As a result, they have
a deeper amount of low level moisture. The highest confidence for
fog will be across Wisconsin where the lighter winds will persist
the longest. As a result, went with areas of fog there and patchy
fog west of the Mississippi River. If this fog develops early
enough in the night, it may have an impact on the overnight
temperatures. As a result, we may be a bit too cool in central
Wisconsin.
With 925 mb temperatures on Friday in the 9 to 12C range, the high
temperatures will easily climb into the 60s. With the MOS being a
too cool lately, adjusted the high temperatures up a few degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
From Friday night through Sunday, the area will be mainly under
the control of high pressure area at both the surface and aloft.
As a short wave trough round the eastern periphery of this ridge
on Friday night, some mid and high clouds may move through north
central and central Wisconsin. Like yesterday, there is a bit of
uncertainty on how warm the 925 mb temperature may be on Saturday.
the GFS continues to hint that they will range from 12 to 15C (1.5
to 2 standard deviations above normal). Meanwhile the NAM and
ECMWF have these temperatures around 15C (closer to 2 standard
deviations above normal). If these latter temperatures verify,
there will be the potential for the high temperatures across the
area to range from the upper 60s to mid 70s which will be close to
the record highs for that day. More on the can be found in the
climate section below.
On Sunday, southerly winds will bring slightly cooler 925 mb
temperatures (around 12C) into the region. As a result, the high
temperatures will be mainly in the 60s for this day.
From Monday into Monday night, the 03.12z models continue to show
that a short wave trough will move through the region. This system
does not have a lot of moisture to work with, so the rain chances
will remain in the 20 to 40 percent range.
Beyond Monday night, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase
diagrams continue to show that there will be a strong signal
(nearly 2 standard deviations above normal) in Phase 8 (western
Hemisphere). However looking at how this signal progresses through
Phases 6 and 7 (western Pacific), almost wondering whether this is
not a robust MJO, but instead a fast-moving Kelvin wave. This
could explain why the models are not resembling the composites
that we normally would see across North America. Regardless of
whether it is a MJO or not, the models are in good agreement that
the East Asian Jet will extend into West Coast. However the models
then differ on what happens down stream across the United States.
For example the operational GFS develops a closed low over the
central United States by mid week. Meanwhile many members of its
ensemble family does not have this feature. The main question for
the end of this time period will be the western extent of the long
wave trough over the eastern United States. This results in a low
confidence forecast for this time period, so did not deviate from
the model consensus.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
VFR conditions continue for the moment with high pressure draped
across the region, providing clear skies and light winds. Given
the setup with plenty of light winds up through 5k ft, still do
anticipate seeing a period of LIFR conditions for LSE in some fog,
mainly centered either side of sunrise but with some chance for
thicker fog to linger closer to 16Z if it can become dense enough.
Farther west, may see some brief visibility reduction for RST in
lighter fog, but confidence isn`t all that high. After fog lifts,
VFR conditions will return for all areas through much of Friday,
with winds shifting south and increasing to 6-12 knots.
&&
.CLIMATE...Saturday
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
With the high temperatures forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s
(potentially even warmer if the NAM and ECMWF verifies warmer
aloft), there will be the potential for a few record high
temperatures to be either tied or broken on Saturday. Here are
some of the record high temperatures for November 5th.
Austin MN - 71F in 2008
Charles City IA - 71F in 1945
Fayette IA - 73F in 1895
La Crosse WI - 71F in 1924
Medford WI - 70F in 1938
Prairie du Chien WI - 74F in 2008 and 2015
Rochester MN - 70F in 1893
Sparta WI - 75F in 2008
Winona MN - 74F in 2008 and 2015
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...Lawrence
CLIMATE...BOYNE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1148 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area overnight. Cooler weather
will occur behind the front over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A cold front with little moisture will move through the forecast
area overnight. There could be a few showers over the northern
Midlands...but dry weather will continue for the most part.
Clouds and boundary layer mixing ahead of the front will act to
hold temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be pushing south through the forecast area Friday
morning as shortwave energy driving the front pushes off the Mid-
Atlantic and North Carolina coast by early afternoon. Precipitable
water values Friday morning are expected to be around 1.1-1.2 inches
but will be lowering through the day and fall to less than a half
inch by 00z Saturday (Friday evening). Do not think there will be
any measurable precipitation with the front as it pushes through
the southeastern Midlands and CSRA Friday morning with little
surface heating available and drying air mass with downsloping
low-level flow but will maintain the slight chance pops across
the east in the morning.
A cooler and drier air mass will build over the region as
continental polar high pressure moves southward out of central
Canada and becomes settled over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.
Temperatures will be cooler on Friday but still above normal as the
cooler air will arrive Friday night. Mostly sunny skies and dry
weather continues on Saturday with surface high pressure over the
region and northwesterly 500 mb flow aloft. Overnight lows Friday
night will fall into the 40s under clear skies. Highs on Saturday
will be even cooler and near normal with highs expected in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
Nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected Saturday
night with high pressure overhead and calm winds with a very dry
airmass in place. This will result in lows in the 30s to lower 40s
with some potential for frost.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A persistent dry pattern continues next week with a highly
amplified 500 mb pattern featuring a slow moving upper ridge over
the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys with upper troughing across the
intermountain west and off the east coast. The upper ridge will
gradually shift eastward over the forecast area Sunday into Monday
with surface high pressure remaining stationary over the Carolinas
through early next week. This will result in a wide diurnal range
in temperatures of nearly 30-35 degrees, more typical of Fall.
By midweek Tue/Wed, another upper trough will dig southeastward
across the Great Lakes into New England and then off the Mid-
Atlantic coast bringing another dry weak front through area. The
upper ridge tries to build back over the area by Thursday with dry
weather continuing. High temperatures during the period will be
near to above normal with highs generally in the 70s while low
temperatures will begin below normal early in the week becoming near
normal later in the period.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence for VFR conditions into the overnight. MVFR
conditions may develop after 12z Friday behind a front.
A cold front will cross the TAF sites in the 06Z-12Z time frame.
The front is expected to move through dry. As moisture increases
ahead of the front...clouds will increase. Clouds ceilings
overnight should remain mid level. Light and variable winds will
shift to northwest/north toward morning. After 14Z...northeast
winds are forecast to increase to 10-15 knots with gust around 20
knots. The latest HRRR suggest strato-cumulus behind the front in
cold advection may possibly lower to MVFR. Confidence is low
with mos indicating VFR. Will continue with VFR but low clouds
possible by 14z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions to
aviation expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
This is the 26th consecutive day without rain (assuming no rain
through midnight). Rain is not expected with this front...so we we
will likely go another 5-7 days without rain pushing us into the
top 10 for consecutive days without rain at CAE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1019 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit into the Maritimes tonight into Friday. High
pressure will build to our southwest Friday night into Saturday as a
trough of low pressure remains in Eastern Canada.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015pm Update...
Back edge of rain moving into the North Woods. Existing PoPs were
a bit fast in ending the rain so delayed the end by 1 to 2 hours.
Still should taper off to scattered to isolated showers by 1am
everywhere.
Previous Discussion...
Rain early tonight transitioning to snow showers by early Friday
morning across northern areas.
18Z sfc analysis showed low pres moving toward the Gulf of Maine
waters. Radar showed rain overspreading much of the region this
afternoon w/the heaviest rainfall across the downeast region. The
rain is expected to move through quickly this evening and
transition to showers later in the evening as the low passes
through the waters. Highest rainfall is expected to be across the
downeast areas w/up to 0.50 inches while further n and w, totals
are expected to be 0.20 to 0.30 inches. The latest run of the NAM
and RAP were handling things quite well in regards to timing and
placement. Both set of guidance showed caa draining down through
the column later tonight w/western and northern areas possibly
seeing some snow mixing in or even changing over by daybreak
Friday. The best chance of any changeover to snow as the NAM
showed is across the nw areas as blyr temps creep into the lower
30s. Little if any snow accumulation.
Friday will be a much cooler day and breezy w/nw winds taking
hold. The model soundings show the column drying out but thinking
is that the guidance is trying to clear things out too quick as
tends to be the case during this time of year and lows moving into
the Maritimes. Downeast regions should see more sun due to nw flow
and downslope. Daytime highs on Friday will be mid/upper 30s
northern 1/2 of the CWA while central and downeast areas will see
low to mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A large ridge of high pressure will be across the central part of
the country Friday night into Saturday as a trough of low pressure
remains over eastern Canada. Surface high pressure will briefly
nudge across the area Friday night bringing partial clearing. A
shortwave sliding southeast from central Canada will then bring
increasing clouds late Friday night followed by a chance for showers
on Saturday. Temps across the north will likely be cold enough for
snow showers. We will remain within the trough centered over Eastern
Canada Saturday night into Sunday. Some snow showers may still be
around Saturday night. On Sunday ridging will begin pushing in from
the west. This will allow cloudy skies to be followed by partial
clearing as the shortwave slides south and east of our area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A large upper level ridge combined with surface high pressure will
be pushing into the area on Monday bringing some sunshine with a
slightly milder afternoon. This will be followed by a clear night
Monday night as the ridge axes crosses the area. Tuesday will likely
begin mostly clear. However, as the ridge weakens and slides to the
south, a shortwave diving down from central Canada will bring
increasing clouds followed by a chance for some showers Tuesday
night. Strong ridging will remain back over the central part of the
country. This ridge will again push into the east to bring dry
weather Wednesday into Thursday. The ridge will weaken and retreat
west at the end of the week as the potential for a trough digging
south from Canada, and phasing in with a trough in the southeast,
brings a chance for wet weather at the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR tonight w/periods of IFR this evening and rain.
Improvement to VFR Friday morning.
.SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are likely
Friday night. Conditions may lower to MVFR Saturday into Sunday
morning, possibly dropping to IFR across the north late Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Conditions should return to VFR Sunday
afternoon and remain VFR in high pressure through Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA will remain in place. Conditions a bit slower to
come up per the latest obs. As the low passes the waters
overnight, winds turning to wsw and caa will allow for winds ans
seas to kick up. Decided to stay w/sustained winds to 15-20 kt
and gusts to 25 kts. Seas will average 3-5 ft away from the intra-
coastal zone.
SHORT TERM: An SCA will continue across the offshore waters
Friday night for wind gusts up to 25 kt in NW flow. Winds should
diminish late Friday night and remain below SCA through Saturday.
Winds may again approach SCA late saturday night through Sunday in
NW flow as a weak shortwave low exits into the Maritimes.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ052.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...Foisy/Hewitt
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Foisy/Hewitt/Bloomer
Marine...Foisy/Hewitt/Bloomer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
753 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
High pressure and calm winds over much of the Northland has
allowed temperatures to quickly drop this evening. We lower temps
a bit. Fog has already formed at KHIB and we have a mention of fog
for much of the area overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
A persistent batch of low clouds associated with upper level
cyclonic flow and cool unstable air mass will slowly drift east
and diminish through the evening. The combination of clearing
skies, surface ridging and calm winds will promote radiational
cooling and fog development. The fog may become locally dense for
a brief period near sunrise.
A broad upper level ridge will build over the central US
Friday, slowly pushing east into the Great Lakes region through
the weekend. This will allow for a warming trend as the forecast
area becomes positioned in a prolonged warm air advection pattern.
Have increased highs for Friday based on readings in the Dakotas
today reaching well into the 60s, and running warmer than model
guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Temperatures will remain well above normal through the extended
period with highs on track to top out in the low to middle 60s
Saturday and Sunday. Winds will become gusty out of the south this
weekend as a cold front/vort max moves into North Dakota. The
cold front, and associated upper level trough, will track across
the Northland during the Sunday night through Monday time frame.
Latest GFS bufr soundings are showing PWAT values increasing to
over an inch with the approaching cold front, suggesting periods
of heavy rain will be possible Sunday night and Monday.
Although a period of cold air advection will accompany the upper
level trough and bring cooler conditions, temperatures will
continue to run on the order of 10 degrees above normal through
the upcoming week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
High pressure over the region has led to VFR conditions over much
of the area, but some MVFR ceilings remained over the Arrowhead
into the Borderland. Satellite imagery shows these ceilings slowly
lifting north and the RAP suggests this trend will continue.
Winds will be light tonight and skies mostly clear or becoming
mostly clear. Fog will be possible overnight and we have a mention
in most of the TAF sites. Winds not too far off the surface will
be increasing overnight which may be enough to keep fog from
becoming too widespread or dense, although localized dense fog
will be possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 35 61 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
INL 33 58 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 36 64 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 30 62 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 32 62 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
747 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 746 pm CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Band of isolated showers along a pre-frontal trof has developed
across southern middle TN. These are tied to a more solid band along
the TN/MS line into AR. This area is located in an area of higher low
level moisture/convergence/instability (i.e. dew points in the
m-u60s). Further east, including our area, the instability and
moisture are quite a bit less. For example, the 00Z RAOB at BMX
indicates a cap at 700 mb and little CAPE of consequence. This
profile will likely limit the coverage of showers or any
thunderstorms over our area tonight. Have removed thunderstorms based
on this and that we have yet to see any lightning strikes with the
current showers. Elevated instability also looks to be limited by
another warm layer between 475-600 mb. Looking further north,
additional showers were found along the cold front as far west as
central and western KY. The HRRR suggests that the TN showers will
enter northwest and north central AL, while the KY showers will
likely dissipate before reaching the TN valley. Have also made some
adjustments to account for low clouds along and immediately behind
the front arriving late tonight and exiting Friday morning.
.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Short term models suggest that strong northerly flow aloft will
continue on Friday, in the wake of the departing trough. Early
morning stratus clouds will likely lift/scatter fairly quickly, with
mostly sunny skies anticipated during the late morning/afternoon and
weak nature of cold advection allowing high temperatures to rise into
the mid/upper 70s. A 3-4 mb pressure gradient maintained by surface
ridge settling into the OH valley will support gusty north-northeast
flow through late afternoon, with some gusts up to 25-30 mph possible
in elevated terrain.
The center of the Canadian surface high will drift slowly eastward
through the OH valley on Friday night -- and although the pressure
gradient across our region will diminish, it appears as if it will
remain strong enough to prevent full decoupling of the boundary
layer. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate that an increase in
high- level cloud cover embedded within the northwest flow aloft can
be expected overnight, and this may occur along with development of a
lower stratocumulus deck driven by the onset of weak WAA above the
surface. Based on these factors, conditions do not appear as ideal
for radiational cooling as once thought -- and will raise low temps
into the u40s/l50s for all but the normally colder TN counties.
A 500-mb ridge translating eastward from the lower MS valley will
provide for a very pleasant day on Saturday -- with light/variable
to light northeast winds. Temperatures are expected to be just a few
degrees cooler compared to values from Friday -- primarily due to a
gradual increase in high-level clouds throughout the day.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
A fairly warm start to the long term period will persist through the
remainder of the extended. The axis of the upper ridge will slowly
shift east Saturday night and become anchored over the TN Valley
during the day on Sunday. Winds will veer to the east as the surface
high shifts along the Atlantic coast. Temperatures on Sunday will
approach the low to mid 70s and overnight lows will generally range
from the lower to mid 40s.
An upper trough will eject east of the Rockies on Monday and dig
southward across the Plains. The forecast area will become situated
on the western periphery of the ridge, with winds shifting to the
south-southwest. Temperatures will slowly moderate in response to the
weak warm air advection and rising 850 mb temps, and daytime highs
will approach 80 degrees on Monday. Although this is adjusted a
degree or 2 above blended guidance, given the extremely dry soil
conditions, highs may rise above what is currently forecast.
The remainder of the extended forecast is somewhat uncertain as the
long range guidance begins to diverge on their solutions. The upper
trough will approach the MS Valley late Tuesday night, with a cold
front trailing southward from the parent surface low over Canada. A
closed low will develop over the Upper MS Valley and begin to drift
southward through the day on Tuesday. The GFS is more progressive
with this system, bringing the trough into the TN Valley late
Tuesday night, with precip overspreading the extreme western portion
of the area. The closed low then begins drift more to the southwest
during the day on Wednesday, as the ridge builds over the southeast
and the precip shifts west of the area. On the other hand, the ECMWF
does not develop a closed low and is not as progressive with the
eastward movement of the trough. Given the uncertainty and this
being so far in the extended, will keep a dry forecast in for the TN
Valley. Along with the dry forecast, temperatures will continue to
be well above normal through the remainder of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 519 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
CIGs of 060-080AGL will drop southeast through the area along with
scattered -SHRA and possibly an isolated TS. Will carry VCSH at both
KHSV and KMSL through 07Z, although most of the activity will cease
before that time. A cold front will then shift winds from northwest
to north and introduce a period of CIGs of 015-025agl (MVFR
conditions) through ~14Z. At this point, the clouds should scatter
out and lift with VFR conditions following thereafter as the sky
clears during the late morning. North-northeast winds should gust
near 18KT on Friday.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
ALZ006>010-016.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...17
For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1016 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Near surface moisture remained rather high in southeast Kansas
with very weak northerly flow. This has promoted areas of dense
fog rather quickly this evening...perhaps also aided by recent
rainfall and moist ground. Despite weak dry advection through the
night, the radiational fog may hold in many areas through the
night, especially closer to the Oklahoma border later in the
night. Therefore have issued a dense fog advisory for parts of
southeast Kansas through early Friday morning.
KED
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Forecast highlights: Fog later tonight into Friday morning
southeast Kansas, shower/thunderstorm chances Saturday night into
early next week, and temperatures returning closer to normal
values by the weekend.
Per the RAP and HRRR, looks like a fairly decent fog setup
overnight into Friday morning over southeast Kansas, as high
pressure settles south amidst a moist boundary layer. Greatest
potential for widespread dense fog appears to be over far
southeast Kansas where combination of steep inversion, decoupled
boundary layer and low- level moisture will be greatest.
Evening/overnight shifts may need to monitor for possible dense
fog advisory.
Otherwise, continued above normal temperatures in the 70-75
degree range expected Friday under sunny skies. Daytime readings
will cool a tad for Saturday under an increasing veil of high
level clouds in advance of the next weather system.
Kleinsasser
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Per medium range model consensus, southwest CONUS cutoff low will
eventually eject northeast and approach Mid-America this weekend,
supporting slowly increasing shower/thunderstorm chances from the
west Saturday night through Sunday evening, persisting over
southeast Kansas through Monday night. Not expecting strong/severe
storms or heavy rain given marginal instability and weak forcing,
with many areas likely seeing no more than 0.25" moisture.
Temperature-wise this weekend through mid to late next week,
expecting readings to gradually cool to near seasonable values,
with daytime highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 40s to low
50s. Big differences between medium range solutions by mid-late
next week. The GFS is the lone outlier in stalling a cutoff low
across Mid-America, which if that verified would support daytime
highs only in the 50s with the potential for scattered showers
Wed-Thu. This scenario has some support from other GFS ensemble
members, but no support from the ECMWF or Canadian models, so will
keep status quo for now.
Kleinsasser
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Surface ridge will continue to settle south across the area
tonight with light winds and generally clear skies. While the
near surface dew points remain relatively high across the
southeast corner of Kansas, the weak northerly flow will continue
to advect drier air into that region. Some radiational fog is
expected to form in southeast Kansas with a few hours into the
IFR category around dawn at KCNU.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 44 73 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 42 73 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 45 72 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
ElDorado 46 72 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 46 73 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 39 74 43 70 / 0 0 0 10
Great Bend 40 72 43 69 / 0 0 0 10
Salina 42 74 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 43 73 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 47 74 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 45 71 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 45 71 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 46 73 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Friday for KSZ095-096-098>100.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KED
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1025 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight, bringing
a few showers overnight into Friday morning. Canadian high
pressure will follow, bringing cooler Fall like weather into
the Carolinas Friday through early next week. Milder weather
will return for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1025 PM Thursday...changes are coming with a cold front
expected to push across the area between 3 AM in northern
sections of southeast North Carolina and around sunrise over the
northeastern South Carolina. The HRRR continues to show the
rain struggling to make it way into the forecast area with the
best chances for some accumulation along the coastal southeast
North Carolina.
The biggest impact of the colder temperatures appears to be
later on Friday which will not be impact this period. Overnight
lows appear will be in the lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM
Thursday...Period starts with a strong cold front moving
offshore, followed by a cold and dry airmass as a Canadian High
moves in. Lingering showers Friday morning near the coast will
give way to sunny skies in the afternoon as a deep dry column
develops. For the remainder of the short term temperatures will
be on a downward trend with highs of around 70 on Friday and in
the mid 60s on Saturday. Mins will drop down into the lower and
mid 40s Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...High amplitude ridge extending from
the Gulf states up to the upper Great Lakes will keep a deep
northerly flow over the eastern Carolinas through Monday. A low
riding down through New England southeast into the Atlantic in
this deep n-nw flow will tighten the gradient flow producing a
slight increase in northerly winds giving a reinforcing push of
mainly drier air through Monday. The models have nudged the
ridge slightly east with time which in turn has nudged the
strongest flow to the east and therefore not expecting more than
a slight spike in winds with a few degree drop in dewpoints Mon
eve. The flow becomes more progressive with ridge shifting east
extending up the southeast coast and high pressure overhead at
the sfc by Tues aftn followed by a shortwave and weak cold
front on Wed aftn which quickly will be replaced by high
pressure on Thurs. May be a few clouds with front on Wed but
otherwise expect plenty of sunshine.
Overall expect near normal temps with beautiful Fall like
weather with sunny days and clear nights and large diurnal
swings in temps. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s and
return to near 70 during the afternoons. By mid week should see
a slight rise in temps.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 00Z...A strong cold front will move through the terminals
around daybreak. Cloud cover will gradually increase and lower
tonight. Winds will be SW-W 5-8 kts until cold frontal passage.
Isolated showers are possible, with the best chance at the
coastal terminals, especially KILM. Have continued TEMPO MVFR
for several hours along and just behind the front. Winds will
quickly increase from the N/NE behind the front, gusting to
around 20 kts.
Extended Outlook...Expect VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 PM Thursday...southwest winds has increased to 10 to
15 knots are blowing over the coastal waters this evening with
combined seas of 2.5 feet and 0.66 foot east swells. Winds will
veer overnight to the west and then turn to the northwest
generally between 3 AM and 6 AM as a cold front passes across
the waters. wind speeds are expected to increase to 15 knots.
The stronger winds are expected to occur after sunrise in the
next period when a small craft advisory is forecast to begin.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...A small craft advisory will be in
effect for Friday and Friday night as a strong cold surge moves
across the waters following a cold frontal passage. Winds could
gust up around 30 kts or so Friday afternoon with seas building
to 4 to 7 ft. Expect improving conditions on Saturday as high
pressure moves overhead.
LONG TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure extending down into the
area waters from the north will shift slowly east through the
period. This will maintain a fresh northerly flow over the
waters. There will be a slight uptick in the winds through Mon
as low drops down from New England southeast into the Atlantic
waters well off shore. The cool northerly flow at night will
also help to push winds up a bit. Therefore expect winds 10 to
15 kts Sun and Mon but closer to 15 in outer waters overnight.
By Tues, the center of high shifts closer overhead with the
gradient relaxing and winds diminishing to less than 10 kts.
Seas between 2 and 4 ft most days, but expect a slight increase
through Monday with some 5 fters in outer waters and then a
drop on Tues down below 3 ft most waters.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1054 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
High pressure to our northwest early this evening will drift
towards central Illinois over the next 24 hours bringing quiet
weather to the Midwest. Drier air will slowly filter south
into our area overnight with some upper 40 dew points already
showing up across our north. However, it still appears that
the combination of light winds, clear skies and abundant low
level moisture from the rainfall over the past 24 hours will
lead to at least patchy fog during the early morning hours. Last
several runs of the HRRR model indicates some low clouds and vsbys
will advect south and southwest out of northeast Illinois later
this evening and into our area late tonight. Have been watching
some stratus move down the western shore of Lake Michigan early
this evening with some movement during the past few hours to the
southwest, so will keep an eye on that to see how it will affect
our area, if at all, early Friday morning. Otherwise, the rest of
the forecast is in decent shape with some adjustments to the early
morning lows, especially across the north and northwest areas. The
updated ZFP should be out by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
A cold front has slipped southeast of IL will push southeast across
the Ohio river valley this evening while a piece of high pressure
over the central Rockies drifts east over IL by Friday afternoon.
Stratus and Stratocumulus clouds southeast of I-55 will clear
southeast IL by early evening. Models are showing patchy fog
developing overnight and possibly becoming locally dense in spots
north of I-70. The fog will then lift during mid morning Friday
leaving ample sunshine Friday. Winds will stay fairly light tonight
and Friday as high pressure settles into the area. Lows overnight in
the low to mid 40s, coolest over the IL river valley. Highs Friday
in the low to mid 60s, mildest over sw CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Moisture channel imagery and upper air showed northwest flow aloft
to strengthen overnight, with upper ridge building over the western
plains and trof deepening over the eastern US. High pressure and
drier air will build into the IL region overnight from the midwest.
High pressure and dry conditions will be in control over the weather
then through the weekend. By Sunday, pattern changes a little, with
upper ridge over MS valley and southerly surface winds developing
over the western plains. This will bring low level mositure
northward into the western plains ahead of the next developing
frontal system. By Monday, moisture advection into MO river valley,
with the frontal zone reaching eastern IA to MO by Tues morning.
However, due to the moist advection west of our area and speed of
front, by time front reaches IL later Tuesday, airmass will have
limited moisture. So at this time, only slight chance pops over
region, with better pop on the front southwest of area over MO, and
over the Great Lakes, where the better upper level support is
located. Conditions then dry again.
As for temperatures, amount of cool air is limited and so
temperatures cooler, but still above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Little change from previous thinking with the main forecast
concern revolving around the potential for low clouds and
fog to drift south-southwest into the area after 08z. We have
been watching a band of stratus over extreme northeast Illinois
tracking southwest. Not much in the way of restricted vsbys with
these clouds but that may change late tonight as our temperatures
continue to cool down to near the dew points, which were ranging
from the mid 40s north to lower 50s south. The HRRR model has been
consistently showing this band of low clouds tracking southwest
overnight with vsbys steadily dropping as the cloud band shifts
into the north between 09z-12z. Not very confident on how far
south these clouds will track tomorrow morning but will hit our
northern groups the hardest with low MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Any fog that forms late tonight should quickly dissipate between
14 and 15z Friday morning, with VFR conditions prevailing thru
the remainder of the period. Winds will be a non-factor this
forecast period with a light northwest to north flow tonight,
becoming light northeast as a secondary cold front moves through
after midnight. Light and variable winds are expected on Fri/Fri-
night as high pressure moves across the area
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
914 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A cold front is moving through the region bringing an end to the
much above normal temperatures the Mid-South has been
experiencing for more than a week (above 80F at KMEM since 10/24).
Front is currently located roughly along the TN/MS line. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms have developed along the front
and continue to push south into East Central Arkansas and North
Mississippi. HRRR has done well with this activity this evening.
Expect the activity to gradually weakening over the next couple
of hours and eventually move out of the area after midnight. A few
lucky places have picked up over a half inch of rain. Cooler air
will work in later tonight with lows in the 50s by morning. Temps
will be closer to normal...but still slightly above...this
weekend.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/
At 230 PM, once again temperatures are hovering near record
values across the entire Mid-South with readings in the upper 70s
to mid 80s across the region. Skies are partly sunny to mostly
sunny across the area with a few light showers are noted on radar
over north Mississippi. A small line of prefrontal thunderstorms
are noted over north-central Arkansas slowly moving southeast.
Short term...rest of the afternoon through this weekend...
A slow moving cold front strewn from New Jersey, down through the
Ohio Valley, to just north of the Arkansas and Oklahoma border
will continue to push southward through the lower Mississippi
Valley this evening. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms
will be along the front between 21Z and 03Z tonight. Short term
model guidance has a decent handle on current trends, with light
QPF expected mainly along and south of I-40 this evening.
For Friday, above normal temperatures will continue as we remain
under the influence of shortwave ridging. Temperatures will run
about 10 to 15 degrees below what they have been recently, but
highs will still top the 70 degree mark areawide. Surface high
pressure and upper level ridging will keep a pleasant airmass over
the Mid-South through the rest of the weekend. Highs will be in
the 70s with lows in the 40s to around 50 degrees.
Long term...Monday through late next week...
The upper level pattern will continued to be influenced by a
robust late season ridge. This will keep us in a warm and much
above average regime. A mostly dry backdoor cold front is
expected on Tuesday, but the lack of any real moisture return
ahead of this feature will likely keep us dry. A bit of
divergence in solutions in the long term, as the GFS evolves a
shortwave over the upper Midwest into a retrograding cut-off low
in close proximity to the Mid-South by midweek. However, the ECMWF
seems to be the more likely solution that has been persistent
across the region over the past several weeks, where the trough
remains progressive and rides atop the ridge and into the
northeast. Given a similar solution was suggested last week and
did not pan out, the GFS seems too bullish. Decided to lean closer
to the ECMWF solution, as it seems to represent a more likely
scenario at this point. The pattern still appears to be blocked,
with no hint of cold air anywhere in sight.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF cycle
VFR conditions will prevail for most of the forecast period. KMKL
has MVFR ceilings at the moment but clouds should clear out late
tonight. Some lower are expected to move into KMEM later tonight
producing MVFR ceilings there. Some isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop tonight over portions of north
Mississippi. Winds will become northerly later this evening at 5
to 10 knots and remain that way on Friday.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
955 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Showers mainly confined to the northern third of the area are
fairly light at present. Rainfall amounts are rather meager with
reports of a trace to 0.1 inch on the high end. A more organized
band of showers lies north of the area and looks to make it into NE
TN and SW VA in the next few hours. HRRR model agrees with this,
although it does weaken activity as it approaches the area. Water
vapor imagery indicates shortwave over Ohio is beginning to dive SE
and should finally kick the front out to the SE by early morning.
Adjusted current temperatures and overnight lows upward over
northern half of the area as observations are about 4-6 degrees
higher than forecasted, even in areas already impacted by
precipitation. Added patchy fog with what is left of the showers
for late tonight into the morning hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 72 46 72 / 30 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 70 42 69 / 40 0 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 55 70 44 70 / 50 0 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 65 35 65 / 50 0 10 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
848 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and its associated showers will cross the region
overnight. Cooler, and dry high pressure will build into the area
behind it, and control our weather pattern through at least
Tuesday. There is a chance of a weak cold front crossing the area
on Wednesday, but confidence in it producing any precipitation at
this point is low.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 835 PM EDT Thursday...
Axis of heavier showers remains across the far north this evening
just ahead of the front now south of the Ohio River and within an
area of good moisture convergence per latest analysis. This aided
via strong westerly flow aloft into the ridges while this
trajectory also continues to limit any rainfall crossing the Blue
Ridge in conjunction with dry low levels seen off evening raobs.
Latest HRRR remains the wettest and farther east in taking current
swath of showers north of Route 460 before dipping southeast and
exiting the eastern sections shortly after midnight. Since this
looks reasonable but likely in a weaker state per ongoing
downslope, have upped pops to mostly likelys across the north/east
in the next few hours. This while keeping mostly chance coverage
along and east of the southern Blue Ridge where appears will see
more of a gap in rainfall. Expect the actual front with perhaps
one final band of weakening showers to drop in from the north by
midnight before exiting to the south during the early morning
hours with cool advection ensuing thereafter. This combined with a
drier more northerly trajectory should be able to scour out enough
moisture to go mainly partly cloudy late. Still appears a decent
range of lows from mid 40s north given deeper cool advection
sooner, to mid 50s southeast where the push of cooler air wont
arrive until around daybreak.
Previous discussion as of 210 PM EDT Thursday...
A cold front extended from northeast Pennsylvania southwest to
southern Ohio and farther southwest to far western Kentucky.
Scattered showers were located along and advance of the front as
close to our region as eastern Kentucky and central West Virginia.
Latest radar extrapolations in timing, and also the latest model
guidance point towards a 6PM to 4AM window of opportunity for these
showers to have an impact on parts of the region. Coverage will be
greatest across southeast West Virginia and neighboring counties of
southwest Virginia. Coverage will be least across the Piedmont where
the influence of downslope flow will limit the activity. While
chances are very low, we still are not going to rule out the
potential for isolated thunderstorms associated with the activity
across western parts of the area early this evening. As an average,
rainfall amounts will average one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch
across the mountains where rain occurs. Across the Piedmont, expect
amounts less than one-tenth of an inch.
In the wake of the front, drier air will quickly advance into the
area from the north as high pressure starts to build into the
region. Given trajectories will be almost due north, the impact of
residual moisture being lifted upslope across southeast West
Virginia as a cloud shield will be reduced. Scattered cloud cover is
expected in this region later tonight with the rest of the area
trending clear by morning.
During the day Friday expect plenty of sunshine and northerly winds
with some gusts approaching 15 to 20 mph, especially across the
mountains. Temperatures will be notably cooler as compared to recent
days with upper 50s to lower 60s across the mountains and mid 60s to
upper 60s across the Piedmont for high temperatures. These readings
will be plus or minus a degree or two of normal for this time of
year. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s to
around 50 across the mountains to the low to mid 50s across the
Piedmont. These readings will still be some ten to fifteen degrees
above normal as there will not be a lot of time for colder air to
start entering the area by sunrise Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EDT Thursday...
High pressure centered over the western Ohio Valley Friday evening
slowly shifts east to overhead by Sunday. We will be in a dry and
seasonable regime this period, with mainly clear skies.
Potential for frost in the piedmont/foothills Friday night as
temperatures drop toward the mid to upper 30s. At the moment not
appearing that enough coverage to warrant any headlines. Mountains
already have ended
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 112 PM EDT Thursday...
No changes to the mainly dry weather pattern this period with upper
ridge over us early in the period suppressed by a shortwave
digging from the Great Lakes into the Northeast Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will send a front through but moisture appears
scant, perhaps a few showers in the mountains Wednesday.
Temperatures will continue to run just above seasonal values but
not as warm as what has happened since late October.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 650 PM EDT Thursday...
Broken area of showers ahead of a cold front to the northwest continuing
to push across the KBLF-KLWB corridor and should reach the Blue Ridge
in the next hour or two. This will bring deteriorating conditions
from northwest to southeast this evening into early tonight. The
front will move through the region between roughly 02Z/10PM and
06Z/2AM. Some of the showers will be heavy enough to drop
visibilities and ceilings into the MVFR or IFR range espcly across
the western locations where a rumble of thunder could also occur.
Immediately in the wake of the cold front, ceilings will trend
toward MVFR levels for a few hours. Some areas espcly around KBLF
may experience a brief period of IFR ceilings as well. By 08Z/4AM,
most locations will return to VFR conditions with good flying
weather expected to prevail Friday into Friday night.
In the wake of the cold front, most locations will have some
gusts in the 10 to 20 knot range that will continue into early
Friday afternoon before diminishing Friday night.
Extended aviation discussion...
Dry high pressure will maintain overall VFR conditions Saturday through
Tuesday. The exception will be some late night/early morning
mountain and river valley fog that will develop in some locations.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
936 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Low stratus deck persists across northwest AR and far northeast OK
this evening, but is expected to decrease overnight at least
across more northern areas. Surface dewpoint depressions near zero
now in areas that have seen substantial clearing with areas of fog
likely to develop in the next few hours, especially in areas that
saw rain last night. Latest HRRR maintains consistent signal with
fog development roughly Grove-Okemah north. Have expanded fog
south and east with anticipated clearing and model consistency,
otherwise forecast trending well. Updated products have been
sent.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 626 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings will slowly clear from north to south overnight into
Friday morning. Cannot rule out some fog where skies clear later
tonight, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF`s.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Surface front may have pushed south of the Red River at this
point...but 850mb front is likely stalled across portions of
southeast OK/western AR. A few isolated thunderstorms have formed
in Madison County but should be moving east of our forecast area
shortly. Low clouds have remained solid across most of the area
today...with late afternoon clearing now occurring across
Osage/Pawnee counties. Closed upper low now across southern AZ is
setting off afternoon storms across the southwest...and this
feature will eventually move toward us by early next week.
Clouds are expected to clear slowly from northwest to southeast
tonight. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 40s/low 50s
across northwest AR and northeast OK...with slightly warmer lows
south...where clouds may linger longer. Areas of fog may form
across portions of northeast OK given light winds tonight and late
clearing...particularly in areas which received some rain last
night.
Friday and Saturday look great...with no precipitation and
pleasant temperatures in the 70s. ECMWF/GFS disagree on the timing
and evolution of the southwest upper low...but both solutions
show the low getting picked up by the westerly flow this weekend
and moving out into the Plains by Sunday/Monday. Will continue
with low end precipitation chances early next week as weather
pattern looks a bit unsettled.
CORFIDI
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 49 74 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 57 78 47 74 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 57 74 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 46 74 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 47 72 37 69 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 49 71 43 67 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 50 74 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 47 73 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
F10 50 73 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 60 77 51 73 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
244 AM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 156 AM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016
An upper level low over srn AZ will gradually move nne today thru
tonight and be approaching the four corners area by 12z Sat. Ahead
of this system the flow aloft will be ssw with some increase in mid
and high levels moisture later this aftn into tonight. At this
point will keep a dry fcst in place thru this aftn across the entire
area as best moisture and qg ascent will stay well southwest of the
area. As for aftn highs temps will remain abv normal with readings
in the upper 60s to lower 70s across nern CO. Winds will be gusty
over the plains however humidity levels will stay abv red flag
criteria.
For tonight not sure about shower threat in the higher terrain south
of I-70. Cross-sections do show some increase in low levels
moisture aft 09z along with weak qg ascent so will keep in a slight
chc of rain/snow showers across zns 34 and 37 late tonight.
Elsewhere it will remain dry with a gradual increase in mid to high
level cloud cover.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 156 AM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016
A weak upper level low will be near the Four Corners area 12z
Saturday morning. The low is progged to drift north-northwest and
weaken through the weekend. This low will help increase moisture
across the area, mainly at the mid and upper levels. Since this is a
weak system, forcing will be limited. Best chance for precipitation
continues to be over the mountains of western and southern Colorado.
A few inches of snow will be possible over the mountains, mainly
along and south of I-70. There will be a slight chance for rain
showers across parts of eastern Colorado. If anything occurs, it is
expected to be light. The increase in cloud cover should keep
temperatures a little cooler this weekend.
For Monday through Thursday, an upper level ridge will be spread
across the western and central part of the country. Models show a
wave moving across the Northern Rockies late Sunday and early
Monday. Part of this wave is forecasted to break off and dive south,
eventually closing off over the Southern Rockies by mid week. The
models are not in good agreement how this wave dives south. However,
moisture remains sparse in the models, so dry conditions are
expected to continue next week based on the current trends.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal with highs generally
in the 60s across northeast Colorado.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 156 AM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016
VFR conditions today thru tonight. Winds will stay mainly ssw thru
18z. HRRR shows a wk bndry may bisect DIA after 18z with light nnw
winds across the wrn half with sse winds over ern areas. By late
aftn this bndry is fcst to shift westward with winds becoming sse
across the entire airport area. The RAP keeps winds sse across
all of DIA this aftn with this bndry never affecting the airport.
At this point not real confident in how things may evolve wind
wise by early aftn. By this evening winds will transition back to
a more ssw direction and continue overnight.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...RPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
553 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will be moving off the coast early today. The
dry and cool air mass behind the front will dominate the forecast
area`s weather through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The RAP and observation trends support the cold front pushing
east of the forecast area around 12z this morning. The HRRR and
radar trends support most of the showers associated with
convergence near the front and moisture and instability ahead of
the upper trough staying mainly northeast of the forecast area.
The HRRR displays isolated showers out of the area by this
afternoon. It will be breezy behind the front. The NAM Bufkit and
GFS LAMP supports wind gusts around 20 mph. Followed the
consistent temperature guidance. It will be a warm day but much
cooler tonight. Expect highs in the mid 70s north to around 80
south with lows tonight in the lower and middle 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry high pressure ridging into the forecast area will dominate
through the weekend. A wide diurnal range in temperatures will
occur because of the dry air mass. Followed the guidance
consensus for the maximum temperature forecast. Strong net
radiational cooling favors the lower minimum temperature
guidance. Expect lows in the 30s and lower 40s with scattered
frost mainly in the normally colder locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF maintain a dry pattern through the middle of
next week with ridging dominating. The GFS and ECMWF MOS indicate
pops less than 10 percent through Tuesday, and less than 20
percent through Thursday. The dry air mass will result in a
wide diurnal range in temperatures. The guidance consensus supports
lows in the 40s with highs in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR conditions may develop after 12z today behind a weak cold front.
A cold front will cross the TAF sites later this morning. The
front is expected to move through dry. After 14Z...northeast
winds are forecast to increase to 10-15 knots with gust around 20
knots. The latest HRRR suggest strato-cumulus behind the front in
cold advection may possibly lower to MVFR. Confidence is low with
LAMP guidance indicating VFR. Skies will clear by late afternoon
with with decreasing wind speeds.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions to
aviation expected.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
322 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
Early this morning high pressure was located over the Great Lakes.
A boundary off lake Michigan was advected westward this morning.
Weak convergence along this boundary was leading to the
development of fog, some dense, this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
Main forecast concern for the short term are the temperatures as
high pressure will drive the sensible weather through the period.
Fog this morning should burn off an hour or two after sunrise.
Looking at highs for today, yesterday we reached near 70 at
numerous places. None of the guidance, with the exception of the
HRRR and NAMBC had temps near this today. Decided to start with
superblend and then tweak up a couple of degrees, especially
across the western CWA. Overnight, used superblend as well for
lows. Today is going to be a gorgeous late fall day.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
A remarkable stretch of mild and very quiet weather will last
through the extended forecast. The only temporary change forecast
during this period will be a weak cold frontal passage in the Monday
and Tuesday time period. This front may not actually bring any
change in airmass, but could usher in a less modified Canadian high
pressure for later in the week. Thus, the very mild temperature in
the short term will linger with high confidence along with dry
conditions through Sunday. Highs in the mid to upper 60s will
combine with light winds to bring an amazing weather weekend to the
Cornbelt. Overnight lows mainly in the lower 40s are expected,
though a few cold drainage locations may dip to the upper 30s.
Monday the flow will increase from the south, but wind at least
increased mid and high clouds, the warm up will be tempered to highs
in the lower to mid 60s. I do not believe widespread rains will
occur with the frontal passage Monday into Tuesday, and that the
model blend pops in the 40s are too high. This front appears very
weakly forced, if not totally dominated by frontolysis. The ECMWF
run from 00z, overs a fully dry forecast and that seems most
likely given the upper low cutting off well southwest of Iowa.
That scenario, along with the GFS solution both indicate dry high
and mild high pressure building in after the upper low drops to
the south for late week. ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Clear skies and a period of calm sfc winds should lead to fog
development late tonight into Friday morning. Highest
probabilities for dense fog are at KDBQ/KMLI. Dropped TAF
visibilities to LIFR - less than 1SM. Little to no boundary layer
mixing may allow fog to persist through 15-16Z/Friday. Further to
the W/SW, the probability for dense fog is lower. Therefore, was
not as aggressive in the KCID/KBRL TAFs. Uttech
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Uttech
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
308 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows 1030mb high over Wisconsin...with
cold front now well to the south across the northern Gulf States.
Skies are currently clear across central Illinois and temperatures
are in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Main question in the immediate
short-term will be extent of fog development over the next few
hours. HRRR has been indicating fog across the entire area early
this morning, although the exact areal coverage/thickness has varied
from run to run. Regional obs indicate two main areas of fog right
now...one directly under the surface high across central/southern
Wisconsin and another from the Ozarks into far southern Illinois.
Temp/dewpoint spreads across the KILX CWA currently range from 0-4
degrees, with the lowest spreads concentrated along/south of I-70.
Since this is the area that cleared slowest yesterday afternoon and
therefore had the least amount of time to mix out residual boundary
layer moisture, think the southeast counties stand the best chance
at seeing widespread fog. Have therefore gone with areas of fog
through mid-morning along/south of I-70...with patchy fog elsewhere.
Once the morning fog dissipates, skies will be sunny across the
board this afternoon. High temperatures will mostly be in the lower
60s, with a few middle 60s across the far W/SW. Skies will remain
clear tonight, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s in
the Wabash River Valley to the lower to middle 40s west of I-55.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
Wisconsin high will gradually settle southeastward, resulting in a
prolonged period of warm/dry weather through early next week.
Afternoon high temperatures will be in the middle to upper 60s
and overnight lows will fall into the lower to middle 40s Saturday
through Monday.
The next chance for rain will arrive across the area late Monday
into Tuesday as a pair of short-wave troughs approach from the west.
Since Gulf of Mexico moisture will remain cut off by prevailing high
pressure to the south, very little moisture will be available for
the waves to work with: therefore, PoPs will remain in the slight
chance category.
Further out in the extended...model consistency remains poor,
although the 00z Nov 4 run of the GFS/ECMWF is coming into better
agreement. The main issue later next week will be if an upper
low will develop over the Plains. Prior runs of both models have
flip-flopped on whether this process will take place or not, so
overall confidence in their latest solutions remains low. Both
the GFS and ECMWF now show a 500mb low closing off over the
central Plains on Tuesday, then settling southward into
Texas/Oklahoma by Thursday. The GFS then slowly tracks the low
eastward into the Tennessee River Valley by Saturday, potentially
bringing showers to central Illinois for the end of the week.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF weakens the low over the Southern Plains,
while a significant upper trough digs into the Great Lakes/New
England. At this point, will continue with a dry forecast
through the end of the week...with temperatures gradually cooling
into the upper 50s/lower 60s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Little change from previous thinking with the main forecast
concern revolving around the potential for low clouds and
fog to drift south-southwest into the area after 08z. We have
been watching a band of stratus over extreme northeast Illinois
tracking southwest. Not much in the way of restricted vsbys with
these clouds but that may change late tonight as our temperatures
continue to cool down to near the dew points, which were ranging
from the mid 40s north to lower 50s south. The HRRR model has been
consistently showing this band of low clouds tracking southwest
overnight with vsbys steadily dropping as the cloud band shifts
into the north between 09z-12z. Not very confident on how far
south these clouds will track tomorrow morning but will hit our
northern groups the hardest with low MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Any fog that forms late tonight should quickly dissipate between
14 and 15z Friday morning, with VFR conditions prevailing thru
the remainder of the period. Winds will be a non-factor this
forecast period with a light northwest to north flow tonight,
becoming light northeast as a secondary cold front moves through
after midnight. Light and variable winds are expected on Fri/Fri-
night as high pressure moves across the area
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
410 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...
A transition day for today for sure as a cold front will be
moving through the region. Sfc analysis at 4 AM EDT places this
front over extreme southeast NC to north GA to near the ARKLATEX.
Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for temporary fog
areas early this morning which should mix out and dissipate as low
level winds increase gradually from the southwest and west ahead of
the front. Cold front will move into SE GA late this morning...near
the FL/GA state line midday...and then drop to near Marion county by
the early evening. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies today with
temps still able to manage the lower to mid 80s. Have increased POPS
slightly based on consensus forecasts and HRRR guidance. Will have
30 to near 40 percent POPS this afternoon over the eastern zones
where better low level convergence and upper support are located.
Some weak instability and day 1 SPC outlook suggests and isolated
tstms are possible for the eastern zones. As front pushes
southward...POP field is shifted southward toward north central FL
by late afternoon and early evening. For tonight...cold front will
move south of the area with good pressure rises occuring and
increased north-northeast winds. Precip chances around 20-30 percent
over the southeast zones will end from north to south in the
evening...though a couple of showers are possible around Flagler
county and offshore into the Atlantic after midnight. Much cooler
tonight with lows will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s over SE
GA...to the 50s in NE FL. Skies become mostly clear from north to
south. Breezy onshore flow along the coast will maintain warmer
temps for coastal counties. Saturday...max temps will be below
normal in the lower to mid 70s. Occasional partly cloudy skies for
the southeast parts of the area as stratocu develops underneath a
5000 ft subsidence inversion. A light shower or two are possible for
St Johns and Flagler counties. Breezy northeast winds expected...
especially the coast at 15-20 mph with gusts around the 25-35 mph
range.
Saturday Night through Sunday Night...
Deep-layered ridging will build over our area from the west as
troughing off the New England coast amplifies compliments of
a strong shortwave trough diving southeastward from the Canadian
Maritime Region. Surface high pressure initially positioned
over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Saturday night will
re-orient itself along the U.S. eastern seaboard by Sunday
night while strengthening and expanding southward. A tight
pressure gradient will prevail locally, with low level
north-northeasterly winds advecting a very dry air mass over
inland southeast Georgia, while a more northeasterly flow
increases convergence in the northeast Florida coastal
waters by late Saturday night and Sunday, bringing isolated
to widely scattered showers onshore over coastal northeast
Florida, with most activity expected from St. Augustine
southward. Breezy conditions will continue for Saturday night
and Sunday for locations along and east of I-95. High cirrus
will likely increase in coverage from west to east on Saturday
night, but decoupling winds and a very dry air mass over interior
southeast Georgia will result in lows falling to the mid and
upper 40s, which is about 5 degrees below early November climo.
Lows over inland northeast Florida will generally range from
the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Lows along the coast will range
from the mid 50s in southeast Georgia to the lower 60s in
northeast Florida. Highs Sunday will range from the upper 70s
over inland north central Florida to the lower 70s in coastal
southeast Georgia.
Drier air in the low levels will overspread northeast and north
central Florida by early Sunday evening, which will end coastal
shower chances. Onshore winds will keep a rather large temperature
gradient in place locally, with lows ranging from the upper 40s
over inland southeast Georgia to the lower 60s along the northeast
Florida beaches.
.Long Term (Monday through Thursday)...
A stagnant weather pattern will prevail early next week, with
deep layered ridging remaining entrenched locally, while surface
ridging positioned along the U.S. eastern seaboard only slowly
weakens and shifts southward towards our area. Breezy northeasterly
surface winds will prevail on Monday along the coast as our local
pressure gradient remains tight due to strong high pressure building
southward from the Mid-Atlantic region. Dry conditions will prevail
through at least Monday night. Highs for Mon-Thurs will range from
the upper 70s inland to the low/mid 70s at the beaches. Lows Monday
night will range from near 50 along the Altamaha River to 60-65
at the coast, with inland temperatures warming a few degrees on
Tues and Wed nights. Isolated to widely scattered showers are
possible for coastal areas from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning as a coastal trough develops in the near shore waters and
shifts inland. Isolated showers may move further inland by Thursday
as southeasterly low level flow potentially strengthens.
&&
.AVIATION...
Periods of MVFR to LIFR vsby are expected at most TAFS through
12z/13z time frame. SSI will have less chances with low level mixing
more likely there. A few showers will be develop this afternoon and
have VCSH in the fcst after 18z though about 00z. Conditions will
prevail at VFR after the fog and any stratus dissipates this morning.
Winds will shift from west to northwest to north and northeast later
this afternoon as a cold front passes through the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will be offshore early today then shift around to north and
northeast by this evening as cold front moves through and south of
area waters. Have raised SCA headlines for all waters beginning
later afternoon and early evening. Poor boating conditions will last
through most of the weekend. Winds up to around 25 knots across the
waters tonight and Saturday and not confident enough to justify a
gale warning for frequent gusts. Winds and seas subside some early
next week but still elevated enough to keep winds near 15 to 20
knots at times and seas up to 6 feet.
Rip Currents: low to moderate risk for today with beach and rip
current hazard increasing tonight and into Saturday. High risk
for Saturday is likely. There may be some additional beach erosion
and a marginal case for minor flooding during the times of high tides
along area beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 83 48 73 44 / 20 0 0 0
SSI 79 57 69 56 / 30 10 0 0
JAX 82 57 72 53 / 30 20 0 10
SGJ 82 64 73 62 / 30 30 20 20
GNV 84 58 76 55 / 30 20 10 0
OCF 83 60 77 57 / 20 30 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM EDT this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Sunday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina
Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to
St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine
to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
Saturday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to
Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal
waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.
&&
$$
Shashy/Nelson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
435 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 434 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show that the trof that
extended from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes yesterday has shifted e
and is now over Quebec and the ne states. To the w, a broad
mid/upper level ridge dominates much of the w and central CONUS.
Around the ridge, a shortwave is moving into northern Manitoba. The
associated waa regime spreading across northern Ontario is
generating some high clouds that are peeling se across Lake Superior
and central/eastern Upper MI early this morning. At the low levels,
lingering low clouds from yesterday are shifting e in developing
westerly flow to the n of sfc high pres drifting sse across WI.
Those low clouds are now confined to eastern Upper MI. With skies
clearing, some patchy radiation fog has developed over w and central
Upper MI. The fog is not apparent on 11-3.9micron satellite, so it
is shallow and very limited in coverage.
Not much to talk about in the short term as the broad mid/upper
level ridge over the w and central CONUS will keep the shortwave now
over northern Manitoba on a track passing well n and e of the fcst
area today and tonight. Fcst soundings show dry air dominating the
low and mid levels with only some high level moisture that may
manifest itself as cirrus at times. Despite low early Nov sun angle,
the dry air mass will aid warming potential today. Nudged temps up
toward some of the higher avbl guidance. High temps should range
from the low/mid 50s e to the upper 50s/around 60F w. Lows tonight
should range from the lower 30s at the traditional interior cold
spots to the lower 40s along Lake Superior.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016
Upper air pattern will consist of troughs on both coasts and a
closed 500 mb low over the 4 corners region and a ridge in the
central U.S. 12z Sat. The ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes on
Sun and is then over the lower Great Lakes 12z Mon as a trough moves
into the plains. Basically, quiet, dry and warm weather for this
forecast period. Did not make too many changes to the going forecast.
In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the lower
Great Lakes 12z Mon with a trough in the plains. GFS then closed off
a 500 mb low over the northern plains while the ECMWF keeps the
trough moving eastward into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. The
differences continue into 12z Wed with the GFS taking the closed low
into the central plains while the ECMWF has the trough over the
lower Great Lakes. The GFS takes the upper low to OK 12z Thu while
the ECMWF moves a trough along Lake Superior. Temperatures will
continue to be above normal for this forecast period. A chance for
rain moves through the area Mon afternoon through Mon evening.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 126 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016
Lingering MVFR clouds at CMX and SAW should clear off between 06-08z
as winds back west-southwest and high pressure moves overhead. The
clearing skies, light winds and lingering low level moisture could
allow for very low stratus or even some patchy fog to form during
the night into the early morning hrs. The greatest chance of seeing
low clouds and fog will be at KSAW, but there is some potential at
KIWD as well. If low clouds do develop, lower sun angle and limited
mixing will lead to slow clearing this morning into afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 434 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016
Although it`s Nov, conditions across Lake Superior will be
relatively quiet with no gales expected thru at least the middle of
next week. Strongest winds will occur today thru this evening, sw to
w 20-25kt, and Mon/Mon night, s to sw at 20-30kt.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
434 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move off the east coast this morning. A
large area of cool, dry high pressure will build across the region
through the weekend and remain in place through the first half of
next week. Low pressure aloft will approach from the southwest
late next week and bring our next chance for rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Friday...
The long awaited cold front moved through the area early this
morning along with scattered showers bringing 1/2 inch or less to
northern parts of the CWA, and generally only a few hundredths to
the southern areas. Last vestiges of precipitation at this hour
extend from Watauga to Halifax counties and are quickly exiting to
the southeast. HRRR has had a good handle on the exit of the
precipitation indicating all night that it would exit in the
08Z-09Z time frame and indeed it is.
The synoptic pattern is far from ideal for a normal upslope flow
situation across the western mountains. Large scale riding aloft
across much of the central and creeping into the eastern U.S. with
troughing across New England and the Canadian Maritimes resulting
in an elongated west-east area of surface high pressure anchored
over the Ohio Valley. This high will gradually shift south-
southeast through the course of next week providing several days
of dry weather.
Cloud trends have been downward rather quickly across the
mountains this morning given that the post-frontal surface winds
are north-northwest to north-northeast, which is not an ideal
upslope surface flow. BLF, LWB, and BCB have already cleared.
There remains at least some potential for low clouds to develop in
the BLF-JFZ area as the ridges there tend to be more W-E oriented
and a northerly flow will provide for some upslope. Thus, not sure
it will be completely clear from this point forward through this
forecast period, but certainly the trend will be in that direction
by afternoon.
After a period of gusty winds immediately behind the front, winds
have diminished more than expected early this morning. After
sunrise, winds are expected to increase again and become gusty
from the NNW west to NNE Piedmont. Winds will decrease again after
sunset as the high center drifts closer to the region.
As noted above, the synoptic pattern still features a large scale
ridge anchored across the central U.S. Therefore, we will only see
a glancing blow of cool air. 850mb temps fail to fall below 0C
throughout the next 24-36 hours, then rise afterwards. While
temperatures will fall back to more normal levels and there are no
further signs of temperatures in the 80s, temperatures will still
average above normal, around 5-8 degrees.
Regarding frost potential across the Piedmont, the area where we
have not reached the deadline for ending fall frost headlines
yet, the location of the surface high, potential mixing from N-NE
winds, and the dry air mass may limit frost potential. The frost
tool only highlights Rockbridge county for frost potential Sat
morning. In coordination with other offices, have decided to hold
off on any Frost Advisory at this time, but did include patchy
frost across this area in the grids.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Saturday morning will
slowly move east to overhead by Sunday. The high center will slide
towards the coast Sunday night into Monday morning.
High temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 50s in the
northwest mountains to the mid 60s in the Piedmont. With light
winds and mostly clear skies, low temperatures Saturday night
will vary from the lower 30s in the colder western valleys to near
40 along the southern Blue Ridge mountains. Added the mention of
patchy frost to the colder western valleys. Temperatures will
moderate on Sunday to highs from the mid 50s in the mountains to
near 70 degrees in the foothills and Piedmont. Dry weather will
continue Sunday night with lows generally from the mid 30s in the
northwest mountains to around 40 degrees in the Piedmont.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...
The unseasonably warm weather will continue next week, with some
cooling toward the end of the week.
Dry weather expected to continue with upper ridge over our area
early in the period suppressed by a shortwave digging from the Great
Lakes into the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. This will send a
front through but moisture appears scant, perhaps a few showers in
the mountains Wednesday. Leaned towards a blend of ECWMF and WPC for
pops. High pressure will build behind the passing front to bring in
drier air Thursday and Thursday night. Moisture increases on Friday
into Friday night with next frontal system.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...
Cold front appears to be near an SIF-ORF line with east-west post
frontal precipitation evident behind the front back to near a
TRI-ROA-RIC line. Most significant area of precipitation is across
the east and southeast part of VA and along the coastal plain.
Most models insist that all of the precipitation will exit the
area fairly quickly within the next 3 hours and have minimal
further impact on ceilings or visibilities.
Generally looking at MVFR cigs east of the Blue Ridge and a
variety of cigs west of the Blue Ridge depending on location and
upslope component. KBLF is seeing IFR cigs while LWB is clear.
Orientation and elongation of surface high across western OH
valley is resulting in a NW-N flow behind the front as opposed to
the customary W-NW flow. This will limit upslope potential to a
few hours in the KBLF area, with clearing most other locations
after daybreak. Generally looking at VFR cigs for most locations,
other than KBLF, after 14Z for the remainder of the TAF valid
period. Currently have low cigs holding at KBLF into the
afternoon, but it could very well clear sooner than that based on
non-favorable/non-orthogonal component of surface winds.
Visibilities may briefly be MVFR at KLYH for another hour and
possibly in clouds/BR at KBLF, but generally looking at VFR
visibilities throughout the TAF valid period.
Winds becoming NNW-N west of the Blue Ridge and NNE-NE east of the
Blue Ridge at speeds of 7-10kts with low end gusts possible most
locations throughout the daytime hours.
Medium confidence in cigs through 18Z, then high confidence in VFR
cigs all TAF sites through the remainder of the TAF valid period.
Medium to high confidence in vsbys through 14Z, then high
confidence in VFR vsbys through the remainder of the TAF valid
period.
Medium to high confidence in wind speed/direction throughout the
TAF valid period.
Extended aviation discussion...
Dry high pressure will maintain overall VFR conditions Saturday through
Tuesday. The exception will be some late night/early morning
mountain and river valley fog that will develop in some locations.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/WP
AVIATION...DS/JH/RAB
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
912 AM MDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...
No update needed this morning. Cirrus was riding along
the northern periphery of the upper ridge per satellite imagery.
Forecast area will stay mostly cloud-free today, and temperatures
will be similar to yesterday`s readings with 850 mb temperatures
in the +14-16c degree range. Debated raising KSHR`s temperature a
couple of degrees, but with a colder start this morning, have left
it alone. KLVM could approach it`s record temperature of 70. Winds
will be light based on RAP soundings, and dewpoints will be in the
20s to 30s. Arthur
.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...
Mainly dry and quiet weather can be expected through the long
term. A shortwave and associated weak cold front are progged to
move through the region Sunday night bringing a slight chance of
showers for the southwest mountains. Most of the energy should
remain across northern Montana keeping much of the area dry.
Ridging will build back over the region on Monday with dry
conditions expected through Friday. Models do prog a weak wave to
move through the ridge Wednesday night, but at this time no
precipitation is expected with it. High temperatures will range
from the upper 50s to middle 60s through the long term, with the
coolest day being Monday behind a weak cold front. STP
&&
.AVIATION...
High pressure over the Northern Rockies will continue to bring
quiet weather to the area with VFR conditions expected through the
period. STP/BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 040/065 040/064 038/059 039/063 039/063 039/060
0/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/U
LVM 067 036/066 039/062 036/057 037/064 039/062 038/059
0/U 00/U 01/N 11/U 00/U 00/U 11/U
HDN 069 035/067 035/066 036/060 036/065 036/064 035/062
0/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/U
MLS 068 035/066 035/064 037/058 036/062 036/062 036/058
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 072 034/068 036/067 036/060 034/064 036/064 036/060
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 068 033/065 035/065 036/056 034/060 034/062 034/057
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 071 033/069 033/066 033/059 032/064 034/065 034/061
0/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
911 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Based on radar trends and latest HRRR run, have increased pops
across the west to 30 percent. The HRRR shows convection moving
across the NW CWA as it dissipates. The RAP shows convection
developing across inland portions of the Coastal Bend and Brush
Country this afternoon. Moisture is sufficient for scattered
convection and there is a short wave that will skirt the area
across the NW CWA, but should keep much of the precip in EWX`s
area. What is lacking is sfc based instability due to a weak
front that has pushed through the CWA. No CAA with this front,
mainly just a windshift to the N and NE. The forecast soundings do
prog weak to mod instability to develop this afternoon mainly
across the western and inland southern areas. Therefore, went
with the 30 pops in these areas.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 642 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/
DISCUSSION...Update for 12z Aviation.
AVIATION...Variety of flight rules this mrng transitioning to VFR
by midday. Weak sfc front continues to push south across region
with stratus spreading southward behind it. Brief period of
IFR/LIFR CIGS will be possible early in the TAF period from KLRD
to KALI to KVCT with KCRP currently xpctd to prevail at VFR or
MVFR (IFR CIGs may come close to KCRP however and have included a
tempo group). Stratus should mix out by mid/late mrng with VFR
prevailing thereafter. Iso convection possible thru the day...but
coverage currently xpctd to be too minimal to include in TAFs
/will carry VCSH this mrng for KCRP/. Future TAF pkgs may need to
introduce VCSH/VCTS this aftn and evening for KLRD to KVCT if some
wx guidance data comes to fruition. Areas of FG possible late in
the TAF period from KALI to KVCT. Weak NErly sfc winds 5 to 10 kts
today...becmg more Erly in the aftn.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
As of writing...a weak surface front was drifting south across
the CWA with only minimal impacts being experienced so far. A
steady stream of mid/upper level moisture was advecting into the
far NW Brush Country and Edwards Plateau early this morning...with
an enhanced area of H25 divergence aiding in precip development
for NW Webb Co and points farther northwest. Lack of both surface
and especially upper air data over central/northern MX...along
with unseasonably high moisture depth over S TX /PWATs have been
running nearly two sigma for this time of year/...have resulted
in nearly all guidance continuing to struggle with initialization.
Thus...lower certainty than normal this morning regarding the
short term forecast with the primary forecast challenge continuing
to be POPs. As such...I have undercut guidance POPs /which range
from 30 to 60 percent/ for the official short term forecast.
For today...weak boundary should stall across the CWA with
showers possible around sunrise through mid morning across the
Coastal Plains where an increase in moisture convergence is
expected as easterly flow off the water interacts with NNE flow
immediately behind the front. Areal coverage...though...should be
rather low. Early morning precip across NW Webb County is expected
to diminish before start of official forecast period /6am/...but
will continue to monitor trends for possible last minute forecast
update. A minor lull in convective activity may occur late this
morning through midday as some weak NVA occurs across the region.
However...during mid to late afternoon with max daytime heating
occurring /resulting in an increase in instability/...and an
increase in DVPA as some guidance progs a H5 vort max to approach
the region...additional isolated to widely scattered convective
development may occur across South Texas.
Tonight...diurnally driven convection should dissipate...but with
a stronger H25 jet streak nosing eastward towards the
CWA...isolated convection will remain possible through the night
/especially across the Brush Country/. Renowned moisture
convergence late in the night will allow for maintaining slight
chance POPs across the Coastal Plains overnight.
Saturday...surface boundary will have lost its characteristics by
then with weak low level moisture advection occurring.
Combination of diurnal warming...moisture advection...any little
ripples/vort maxes caught in the flattening mid level flow...and
persistent H25 jet overhead...should result in a continuation of
isolated to perhaps scattered convective chances.
Have gone with mostly cloudy skies this morning...giving way to
partly sunny skies. However...variable cloudiness is more likely
with sky coverage fluctuating between partly to mostly cloudy
through the day. Some areas /especially Victoria/ may experience
mostly sunny skies for a period of time late this morning and
early to mid afternoon/. Continued unseasonably warm
today...though not quite as warm as yesterday given additional
cloud cover and H85 temps having cooled approx two degrees C.
LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday)...
Active weather pattern is expected through the extended period. The
upper low over the Desert Southwest into northwest Mexico will open
into a short wave trough that moves into the southern High Plains to
northeast Mexico Saturday night. Convection that develops over the
higher terrain of Mexico should reach the western Brush Country
during the latter part of Saturday night. Models also indicate
moisture will be increasing along the coast. Steep low level lapse
rates are expected in the air mass over the coastal waters. Expect
scattered convection to occur over the coastal waters to near the
coast overnight Saturday night. Scattered convection is anticipated
over most of the region on Sunday as the short wave trough moves
across. Region will be in difluent flow aloft in advance of an
energetic jet streak moving across northern Mexico. The upper
trough axis will remain over West Texas into northern Mexico on
Monday keeping a strong upper level jet across Mexico into South
Texas. Deep moisture will remain over the region and went close to
Superblend guidance showing likely PoPs for the coastal plains
into the coastal waters Monday. Both ECMWF and GFS show an upper
low forming over the southern High Plains Tuesday into Wednesday
with the trough axis persisting to the southwest into northern
Mexico. This will keep a threat of upper level impulses moving out
of Mexico and interacting with moisture over the region to keep
chance PoPs going Tuesday through Thursday except for slight
chance for the western Brush Country Thursday. Temperatures will
be near or slightly below normal with amount of cloud cover and
precipitation for next week.
COASTAL FLOODING...Water levels are receding this morning as high
tide cycle has ended. Canceled Coastal Flood Advisory earlier
this morning. Next high tide high tide cycle along Mustang/Padre
Islands is this evening. Current indications are that water levels
may remain shy of reaching the dune line tonight...unless ENE
flow strengthens significantly. A moderate risk of rip currents
will exist today along Gulf facing beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 87 69 85 69 83 / 20 20 20 20 50
Victoria 86 63 83 64 81 / 20 20 10 20 50
Laredo 86 68 85 70 83 / 30 20 20 20 40
Alice 88 65 86 68 83 / 30 20 20 10 50
Rockport 86 70 84 70 81 / 20 20 20 30 50
Cotulla 86 67 85 68 81 / 30 20 20 20 50
Kingsville 87 66 85 68 83 / 30 10 20 20 50
Navy Corpus 85 72 83 73 81 / 20 20 20 30 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
938 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
The dense fog advisory has been extended to noon with additional
counties added.
Web cams, satellite, and observations so far show little in the
way of visibility improvement. The weak November sun has not had
much affect on the fog this morning. Satellite does show the fog
spreading into the eastern parts of Delaware, Muscatine, and
Warren counties.
UPDATE Issued at 818 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
Web cam and ground truth reports indicate the dense fog has spread
into Dubuque, Jones, and Cedar counties. Thus the dense fog
advisory has been expanded in coverage and extended until 10 AM.
UPDATE Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
Dense fog has spread across the area this morning, especially east
of and along the Mississippi River. As such, have issued a dense
fog advisory through 10 am through these areas. Expect the dense
fog to expand further west and that is why we issued for Scott,
Rock Island, Mercer, Clinton and Jackson Counties.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
Early this morning high pressure was located over the Great Lakes.
A boundary off lake Michigan was advected westward this morning.
Weak convergence along this boundary was leading to the
development of fog, some dense, this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
Main forecast concern for the short term are the temperatures as
high pressure will drive the sensible weather through the period.
Fog this morning should burn off an hour or two after sunrise.
Looking at highs for today, yesterday we reached near 70 at
numerous places. None of the guidance, with the exception of the
HRRR and NAMBC had temps near this today. Decided to start with
superblend and then tweak up a couple of degrees, especially
across the western CWA. Overnight, used superblend as well for
lows. Today is going to be a gorgeous late fall day.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
A remarkable stretch of mild and very quiet weather will last
through the extended forecast. The only temporary change forecast
during this period will be a weak cold frontal passage in the Monday
and Tuesday time period. This front may not actually bring any
change in airmass, but could usher in a less modified Canadian high
pressure for later in the week. Thus, the very mild temperature in
the short term will linger with high confidence along with dry
conditions through Sunday. Highs in the mid to upper 60s will
combine with light winds to bring an amazing weather weekend to the
Cornbelt. Overnight lows mainly in the lower 40s are expected,
though a few cold drainage locations may dip to the upper 30s.
Monday the flow will increase from the south, but wind at least
increased mid and high clouds, the warm up will be tempered to highs
in the lower to mid 60s. I do not believe widespread rains will
occur with the frontal passage Monday into Tuesday, and that the
model blend pops in the 40s are too high. This front appears very
weakly forced, if not totally dominated by frontolysis. The ECMWF
run from 00z, overs a fully dry forecast and that seems most
likely given the upper low cutting off well southwest of Iowa.
That scenario, along with the GFS solution both indicate dry high
and mild high pressure building in after the upper low drops to
the south for late week. ERVIN
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
Difficult aviation forecast for the next few hours as dense fog is
starting to set in across the area. At this time, the confidence
in MLI seeing dense fog was lower than previously forecast, so a
forecast of 1sm was issued instead. The site could still go down,
but at this time the forecast seemed too heavy handed. Once the
fog erodes, great VFR conditions are expected through the period.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for Cedar-Clinton-
Delaware-Dubuque-Jackson-Jones-Muscatine-Scott.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for Bureau-Carroll-Henry
IL-Jo Daviess-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-
Whiteside.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Gibbs
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
913 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Radar data continues to show showers in progress along the Rio
Grande plains, mainly south of Del Rio. Possible MCV formation is
also noted near Eagle Pass according to the last few radar scans.
This activity is developing within a moist axis oriented along the
Rio Grande, with blended precipitable water values generally
around 1.7". While the IR satellite trends do show an overall
warming of cloud tops, this trend is rather slow. Based on radar
trends and the latest HRRR data, we have increased rain chances
across the Rio Grande plains, mainly for areas south of Highway
90.
Elsewhere, some light showers are noted across south central Texas
this morning. We could see a slight uptick in activity this
afternoon with some daytime heating. Rain chances will still
remain fairly low as we expect cloud cover to limit heating.
Northerly winds and cloud cover will also keep temperatures a
little cooler than previously anticipated and we have adjusted
high temperatures for today.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/
AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA are expected mainly across the Rio Grande Plains
today and tonight where the best upward forcing is forecast. At
KDRT, have mentioned -RA this morning and VCSH this afternoon.
Elsewhere across South Central Texas, mainly ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are
expected and have left mention out of KAUS/KSAT/KSSF TAFs due to
low PROBs from weak ridging. A mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGs this
morning will rise to VFR this afternoon. Patchy IFR/MVFR VSBYs
will linger into mid morning in those that recently received
heavier rains. CIGs will fall to a mix of IFR/MVFR late this
evening into tonight and linger into Saturday morning. N to NE
winds 3 to 9 KTS will prevail. Some wind gusts to 25 KTS are
possible in/near SHRA/TSRA mainly along the Rio Grande.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a ridge extending from
Texas to the northern plains and a cutoff low centered over
northwestern Mexico. The flow over Texas was turning
anticyclonically from the southwest to the northwest. Mid-level
moisture was streaming into Texas from the Pacific. At the
surface, a cold front extended from Houston to Floresville to
Quemado. The upper level low will begin to move to the northeast
today and ride up the western side of the ridge. The front will
stall near our southern border. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue today with the best chances over the
Rio Grande Plains. Rain chances will decrease to slight tonight as
the frontal boundary dissipates and this will continue Saturday.
LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The upper level trough will continue into the middle of the
country over the weekend. Sunday it will start to erode the ridge
and dig down over Texas. This will continue into the middle of the
week when another low will close off over the central high plains.
This will mean an extended period of unsettled weather for our
CWA. Sunday and Monday we will see an increase of mid-level
moisture and this time period will have the best chance for
precipitation. Rain chances will continue through the end of the
period, but will be lower with less available moisture.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 76 65 77 60 75 / 20 10 20 20 40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 65 77 60 76 / 20 10 20 10 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 65 78 61 76 / 20 20 20 20 40
Burnet Muni Airport 73 62 73 58 72 / 20 10 20 20 40
Del Rio Intl Airport 76 65 76 65 74 / 50 30 20 50 50
Georgetown Muni Airport 74 63 74 58 73 / 20 10 20 20 30
Hondo Muni Airport 79 65 79 64 76 / 30 20 20 20 50
San Marcos Muni Airport 76 65 78 61 75 / 20 20 20 20 40
La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 65 78 60 78 / 20 10 20 10 30
San Antonio Intl Airport 77 65 78 63 75 / 30 20 20 20 50
Stinson Muni Airport 79 67 80 64 76 / 30 20 20 20 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1103 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.UPDATE...
A number of small changes to the forecast for today, but overall
things seem on track. Upped PoPs for late this morning and this
afternoon. The HRRR, and to a lesser extent, the RAP have joined
the TTU WRF in developing more convection today. Also, and more
importantly, radar shows isolated light showers already
developing. On a related note, additional expectation for cloud
cover and shower potential, backed off on high temperatures well
inland, while keeping highs closer to the coast more or less the
same.
Luchs
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/
AVIATION...
A weak frontal boundary near KUTS will likely begin to dissipate
as it moves southward today. IFR or lower conditions are likely in
the vicinity of the front through mid morning. A model consensus
has the best conditions from about KHOU to the coast. The fog
areas could push into KIAH between 12Z and 15Z this morning as
well.
Otherwise, chances for showers will persist through most
of the afternoon. Not as confident for the ceiling forecast after
00Z tonight. A model consensus has MVFR conditions developing
after 00Z at KCLL and KUTS.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/
DISCUSSION...
At 300 Am, a weak cold front extended from near Alexandria LA to
Bush IAH to near Cotulla, The front was becoming increasingly
diffuse but there should be enough of a push to move it into the
Gulf. Surface dew points have fallen into the mid/upper 60`s
behind the front however PW values remain near 1.80 inches and are
progged to remain near these values today. Models show a weak
upper level disturbance approaching the region from the west this
afternoon and this feature should trigger scattered showers and
storms this aftn. MET/MAV PoP guidance is very high today but
short term guidance is the complete opposite and not showing much
in the way of precip. Split the difference and leaned toward the
more moderate ECMWF guidance. Temps should be a few degrees cooler
behind the front and with a bit more cloud cover expected. PW
values decrease to below 1.50 inches on Saturday and don`t see
much of a trigger for shra/tsra. Will keep things on the dry side
for now but the ECMWF is showing a swath of precip over the NE
half of the region as a strong disturbance moves across NE-E
Texas.
A deep upper level low over AZ will move east over the weekend and
by Sunday this feature moves into W TX. Moisture will return to SE
TX and PW values increase to between 1.50 and 1.80 inches. The
deeper mstr will be over the SW zones. A strong upper level
disturbance rotating around the upper level feature combined with
the deeper moisture and developing surface trough near the coast
should allow for higher rain chances on Sunday, especially in the
afternoon. Jet dynamics improve Sunday night into Monday and SE TX
will lie in a left front quad of a splitting jet. Rain chances
look pretty good for Sunday night and Monday considering the
position of the upper low, moisture levels, jet structure and
surface convergence near the coastal trough. Some of the rain
could be locally heavy late Sun night into Monday.
Jet dynamics weaken by Election Day and PW values drop so
widespread rain is less likely. At this time, weather should not
hinder voters getting to the polls.
SE TX will remain on the east side of the upper low through the
middle of the week so weak disturbances rotating around the upper
low should keep the weather unsettled through early Thursday. A
weak coastal low will develop late Wednesday night and push east
early Thursday and this should drag any remaining precip to the
east and away from the region. Surface high pressure will build
into the area for next weekend with cooler and drier conditions
expected. 43
MARINE...
Light easterly winds will keep seas low through tonight. On
Saturday, moderate easterly winds will develop. Near caution
conditions are expected by late Sunday or early Monday. The easterly
winds may lead to some tide issues at least over the Bolivar
Peninsula by Sunday evening into Monday during the times of high
tides. Actual tide levels may approach 3 feet in these locations.
40
CLIMATE...
Bush IAH established a record high temp yesterday at 88 degrees.
The first 3 days of Nov have been very warm with the average
temperature 10.3 degrees warmer than the 30 year normals. The avg
temp this Nov has been 77.0 degrees which is the warmest start to
November in city history. Going back to September 1st, the average
temperature has been 78.7 degrees and this is the second warmest
Sept 1 through Nov 3rd in city history, trailing 1905 (81.9
degrees). 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 64 77 59 78 / 50 20 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 80 65 79 61 79 / 40 30 10 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 79 71 78 71 78 / 20 20 10 20 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
313 AM PDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures and dry weather will prevail across
central California through at least the middle of next week.
Otherwise, patchy fog will be possible through the San Joaquin
Valley each morning into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Upper level high pressure continues to be the
dominant weather feature across central California this morning.
Given the recent rains in combination with light winds, patchy
reduced visibilities were reported through parts of the San
Joaquin Valley. As of 3 am, the lowest visibilities were reported
generally around and south of highway 198. The HRRR indicates that
visiblities will continue to fall through the 12z hour with
improvement forecast around the 17z hour. We will continue to
monitor the visibility trends closely for a possible localized
dense fog advisory this morning.
Otherwise, continued warming is forecast to take place across the
region as upper level high pressure builds over southern and
central California. Temperatures this afternoon will be between 3
and 5 degrees warmer compared to yesterday afternoon and as much
as 6 to 8 degrees above normal for the beginning of November.
A nearly cookie cutter day for Saturday is forecast compared to
today with little to no change in the upper level pattern.
An upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest and northern
California coastline late Saturday night into Sunday morning. All
precipitation is forecast to stay well to the north of the area.
The only impact to the area will be a subtle cooling trend,
however temperatures are forecast to still remain above normal.
Additionally, the upper trough is weak enough that patchy fog may
still form, so fog was added to the forecast Sunday.
High pressure will once again build over the area and remain the
dominant weather feature through at least the middle of next week.
This will keep central California dry with above normal
temperatures, and the potential for patchy fog each morning.
Lastly, looking well into the future, the Climate Prediction
Centers 6 to 10 day outlook as well as the 8 to 14 day outlook
(valid until November 17th) call for a good probability of above
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...In the San Joaquin Valley, areas of MVFR visibilities
due to haze for the next 24 hours. However, IFR with isolated
patches of LIFR in fog developing 12z-18z Friday. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail in the central CA interior during the next
24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Friday November 4 2016... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern... Kings and
Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
public...Riley
avn/fw...DCH
synopsis...Riley
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1023 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
Do not expect any significant changes to grids this morning.
Fog has dissipated from most of the forecast area with some
remnant patches from Galesburg to Lacon and into northern Peoria
County, and north of I-70 between I-57 and the Indiana border.
These patches should diminish in next hour.
Latest LAMP Guidance suggest current forecast highs may be a bit
warm today, but not sure if GFS is resolving the boundary layer
adequately as the 12z sounding suggests temps about 5 degrees
warmer than the LAMP. New MET is somewhere in between and is
closer to ongoing package so will not make any changes at this
time for today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows 1030mb high over Wisconsin...with
cold front now well to the south across the northern Gulf States.
Skies are currently clear across central Illinois and temperatures
are in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Main question in the immediate
short-term will be extent of fog development over the next few
hours. HRRR has been indicating fog across the entire area early
this morning, although the exact areal coverage/thickness has varied
from run to run. Regional obs indicate two main areas of fog right
now...one directly under the surface high across central/southern
Wisconsin and another from the Ozarks into far southern Illinois.
Temp/dewpoint spreads across the KILX CWA currently range from 0-4
degrees, with the lowest spreads concentrated along/south of I-70.
Since this is the area that cleared slowest yesterday afternoon and
therefore had the least amount of time to mix out residual boundary
layer moisture, think the southeast counties stand the best chance
at seeing widespread fog. Have therefore gone with areas of fog
through mid-morning along/south of I-70...with patchy fog elsewhere.
Once the morning fog dissipates, skies will be sunny across the
board this afternoon. High temperatures will mostly be in the lower
60s, with a few middle 60s across the far W/SW. Skies will remain
clear tonight, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s in
the Wabash River Valley to the lower to middle 40s west of I-55.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
Wisconsin high will gradually settle southeastward, resulting in a
prolonged period of warm/dry weather through early next week.
Afternoon high temperatures will be in the middle to upper 60s
and overnight lows will fall into the lower to middle 40s Saturday
through Monday.
The next chance for rain will arrive across the area late Monday
into Tuesday as a pair of short-wave troughs approach from the west.
Since Gulf of Mexico moisture will remain cut off by prevailing high
pressure to the south, very little moisture will be available for
the waves to work with: therefore, PoPs will remain in the slight
chance category.
Further out in the extended...model consistency remains poor,
although the 00z Nov 4 run of the GFS/ECMWF is coming into better
agreement. The main issue later next week will be if an upper
low will develop over the Plains. Prior runs of both models have
flip-flopped on whether this process will take place or not, so
overall confidence in their latest solutions remains low. Both
the GFS and ECMWF now show a 500mb low closing off over the
central Plains on Tuesday, then settling southward into
Texas/Oklahoma by Thursday. The GFS then slowly tracks the low
eastward into the Tennessee River Valley by Saturday, potentially
bringing showers to central Illinois for the end of the week.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF weakens the low over the Southern Plains,
while a significant upper trough digs into the Great Lakes/New
England. At this point, will continue with a dry forecast
through the end of the week...with temperatures gradually cooling
into the upper 50s/lower 60s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
Clear skies and light winds have allowed the lingering low level
moisture to develop into patchy dense fog early this morning. BMI
is the only site with dense fog at the terminal, with IFR fog at
PIA and DEC and MVFR fog at SPI. Despite generally light winds
under high pressure, the increasing temperatures should help the
fog dissipate by mid-morning.
Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies today, and clear skies
tonight.
Winds will be a non-factor this forecast period with light
and variable winds as high pressure moves across the area.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1003 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.DISCUSSION...Cold front over the southeastern U.S. will move
into north Florida this afternoon. This boundary is forecast to
reach Lake/Volusia counties late in the day/early evening and
continue southward across the area into tonight. Airmass ahead of
this boundary remains rather dry with morning XMR sounding showing
PW around an inch. A modest increase in moisture and slight low
level convergence with this boundary, should generate isolated to
scattered showers along the front. However HRRR and local WRF
guidance indicates much of this activity should hold off until
very late in the day, possibly early evening. Have scaled back
slight rain chances to just northern Lake and Volusia counties
until late afternoon/toward sunset.
Mostly to partly sunny skies expected ahead of the front today
with highs reaching the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for much of the next 24 hours.
Isolated to scattered showers possible along a cold front that
will move through the area tonight. Additional onshore moving
showers will be possible in a strong NE surge behind the boundary
into the overnight. Tempo IFR/MVFR conds will occur with any of
this shower activity.
&&
.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...(Previous Discussion) Weak pressure gradient
expected through the afternoon ahead of a cold front that is
expected to approach the northern waters just after sunset. NNW-
NNE winds 6 - 12 knots and seas up to 3 feet nearshore and 4 feet
offshore into the afternoon.
Surface front will sweep across the coastal waters from north to
south, bringing a surge of ~20 knot NE winds and rapid build up of
seas. Have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic waters
north of Sebastian Inlet beginning early Saturday morning.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM EDT Saturday to 4 AM EST Monday
for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory from noon EDT Saturday to 4 AM EST Monday
for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian
Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.
&&
$$
Weitlich/Glitto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
735 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 434 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show that the trof that
extended from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes yesterday has shifted e
and is now over Quebec and the ne states. To the w, a broad
mid/upper level ridge dominates much of the w and central CONUS.
Around the ridge, a shortwave is moving into northern Manitoba. The
associated waa regime spreading across northern Ontario is
generating some high clouds that are peeling se across Lake Superior
and central/eastern Upper MI early this morning. At the low levels,
lingering low clouds from yesterday are shifting e in developing
westerly flow to the n of sfc high pres drifting sse across WI.
Those low clouds are now confined to eastern Upper MI. With skies
clearing, some patchy radiation fog has developed over w and central
Upper MI. The fog is not apparent on 11-3.9micron satellite, so it
is shallow and very limited in coverage.
Not much to talk about in the short term as the broad mid/upper
level ridge over the w and central CONUS will keep the shortwave now
over northern Manitoba on a track passing well n and e of the fcst
area today and tonight. Fcst soundings show dry air dominating the
low and mid levels with only some high level moisture that may
manifest itself as cirrus at times. Despite low early Nov sun angle,
the dry air mass will aid warming potential today. Nudged temps up
toward some of the higher avbl guidance. High temps should range
from the low/mid 50s e to the upper 50s/around 60F w. Lows tonight
should range from the lower 30s at the traditional interior cold
spots to the lower 40s along Lake Superior.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016
Upper air pattern will consist of troughs on both coasts and a
closed 500 mb low over the 4 corners region and a ridge in the
central U.S. 12z Sat. The ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes on
Sun and is then over the lower Great Lakes 12z Mon as a trough moves
into the plains. Basically, quiet, dry and warm weather for this
forecast period. Did not make too many changes to the going forecast.
In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the lower
Great Lakes 12z Mon with a trough in the plains. GFS then closed off
a 500 mb low over the northern plains while the ECMWF keeps the
trough moving eastward into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. The
differences continue into 12z Wed with the GFS taking the closed low
into the central plains while the ECMWF has the trough over the
lower Great Lakes. The GFS takes the upper low to OK 12z Thu while
the ECMWF moves a trough along Lake Superior. Temperatures will
continue to be above normal for this forecast period. A chance for
rain moves through the area Mon afternoon through Mon evening.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 735 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016
With a dry air mass over the area, VFR conditions will prevail thru
this fcst period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 434 AM EDT FRI NOV 4 2016
Although it`s Nov, conditions across Lake Superior will be
relatively quiet with no gales expected thru at least the middle of
next week. Strongest winds will occur today thru this evening, sw to
w 20-25kt, and Mon/Mon night, s to sw at 20-30kt.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland Oregon
307 AM PDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will maintain one more day of mild to warm
temperatures and dry weather today. Some locally dense fog is
developing in the valleys early this morning, but should lift and
burn off by midday. Otherwise partly to mostly sunny skies should
prevail today, with the unseasonably warm temperatures approaching
records in some locations. Big changes will develop Saturday as a
moist and slow moving cold front moves across the forecast area. Rain
may become locally heavy Saturday afternoon and evening, even for the
lowlands...though this remains uncertain. Post-frontal showers will
taper off Sunday, with another ridge of high pressure likely to bring
more dry and mild weather early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)...Thursday was another
unseasonably mild day across the forecast area, with just about all
lowland locations reaching the 60s. This should again be the case
today, as the air mass aloft is warmer than yesterday if anything.
The one caveat will be under valley inversions, where locally dense
fog is forming this morning. Airport observations seem to indicate
the dense fog is more widespread than it actually is, as only a few
area webcams suggest dense fog...even along typically fog-prone
Interstate 5. Easterly outflow from the Columbia Gorge is keeping the
PDX Metro east of I-205 mixed and generally fog-free, but the
remainder of the Portland/Vancouver Metro and other valley locations
may still see areas of dense fog expand until around 8 AM, before
sunshine starts to work at lifting/clearing the fog.
Areas affected by the fog may take some time to warm up today given
the fairly low early November sun angle. However, it appears that our
strong upper ridge and offshore flow will keep the inversions and fog
shallow enough that mid- to late-afternoon should be warm for the
vast majority of the forecast area. Given 850 mb temps fcst to be in
the +10 to +12 deg C range by the 00z GFS/06Z NAM, plenty of
sunshine, and some offshore component to the flow, would not be
surprised at all if a handful of locations reach into the 70s in our
CWA this afternoon. Suspect the better chance for this will be in the
foothills as well as the PDX Metro, where the easterly flow will
probably give a little boost to temperatures. Records today across
our forecast area are generally in the upper 60s or lower 70s, so
records may fall this afternoon with the unseasonably mild/warm
weather.
South to southwest flow aloft will increase moisture across western
Oregon tonight and early Saturday, as a fairly strong front
approaches the coast. 06z NAM/08z RAP show precipitable water (PW)
values approaching 1.50 inch near the Pac NW coast by 12z Sat, along
with a hefty 40-50 kt of S-SW flow at 850 mb. These two factors alone
should bring some locally heavy rain to our coast and Coast Range
zones by Sat morning. Interestingly, recent model runs have not been
as splitty with this system as it moves onshore...with the latest
trend being to slow the cold front over the Willamette Valley as a
sharp upper level trough pivots NE onshore with some negative tilt
Sat afternoon and evening. The combination of deep subtropical
moisture, slow moving front, conditional instability within a very
deep moist layer, strong and possibly negative tilt shortwave, and
favorable right-entrance jet dynamics, may result in a very wet
Saturday afternoon and evening...even for the lowlands.
Some elements of this setup are reminiscent of the Halloween 2015
heavy rain event which caused some significant urban flood problems
across the PDX Metro. It should be noted though, that any of these
features could still move quite a bit in future model runs, and if
models revert back to a more splitty solution - taking the better
combination of moisture and dynamics south toward Brookings or
Crescent City - this could end up being a fairly uneventful frontal
passage for our district. For now, we stepped toward heavier QPF, but
there is still some upside potential given the ideal setup. Current
forecast has generally 1.50 to 3.00" for the coast and higher
terrain, with around 1 inch for the lowlands.
Model wind fields and pressure gradients associated with this system
are not ideal for strong winds with this event. However, given 40 to
50 kt winds just above the surface, exposed ridges of the Coast Range
and perhaps the beaches and headlands could see gusts up to around 50
mph or so. Depending on how the upper trough comes in, Saturday night
could become a bit breezy in the Willamette Valley, but gusts should
stay below 40 mph.
Post-frontal showers will linger into Sunday, with snow levels near
or just above the Cascade passes. There could be some slushy
accumulation down to Santiam or Willamette Pass if heavier snow
showers occur, but impacts appear minimal at this time. High pressure
will build into the Pac NW Sunday afternoon, generally cutting off
the shower threat for all but our NW corner. Some models are starting
to hint that a warm front may bring another chance for rain later
Sunday or Sun night, so we did carry some PoPs into Sunday night to
account for this. Weagle
.LONG TERM...No Changes. Previous discussion follows...
(Sunday night through Thursday)...Models remain in decent agreement
in the long term. A weak shortwave ridge looks to build into the Pac
NW late Sunday and Monday which could bring a period of drier weather
and overnight fog. However, models continue to show multiple weak
waves moving across the region under moist southwesterly flow aloft
during this time so can`t remove PoPs from the forecast just yet.
Rain chances increase late Monday and Tuesday with models showing
another frontal system moving into the Pac NW. There remains some
uncertainty with the timing and track of this system but Tuesday
looks to be rainy, with post frontal showers continuing into
Wednesday. Upper level ridging looks to develop late Wednesday and
Thursday, with a nice fall weather possible Thursday. /64
&&
.AVIATION...Generally VFR along the coast and in the higher
terrain as of 0830Z. However, increasing IFR or worse conditions
developing in the interior valleys. Expect IFR to VLIFR to expand
in coverage throughout the valleys through sunrise. The exception
would be areas near the Columbia River Gorge, where offshore low-
level flow will maintain VFR. Valleys expected to improve to VFR
mid to late morning, and then remain VFR through Fri evening.
Coastal areas to remain VFR through at least early Fri evening,
but cannot rule out localized IFR vis near bays and river
drainages through sunrise. Next front brings precipitation to the
coast during the evening, with conditions likely lowering to MVFR
by 06Z Sat.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Areas of IFR or worse have developed in
valleys west of the terminal and this will continue until 16Z or
so. Brief visibility restrictions have already been noted at the
terminal and would expect IFR or lower conditions through 16Z.
Only caveat to that would be if light offshore flow is able to
make it to the terminal. In any event, VFR to prevail at the
terminal mid to late morning through Fri evening. Areas near the
Columbia Gorge will remain VFR through Fri evening. Weishaar
&&
.MARINE...There will be a period of relatively benign wind speeds
through the morning. Wind speeds increase during the afternoon as
the next frontal system well offshore marches toward the coast.
Used the RAP model for the first 24 hours, which shows wind speeds
increasing to 25 kt over the outer waters by late morning. Gales
develop over the outer waters around midday. NAM and GFS in
reasonable agreement showing 30-35 kt boundary layer wind speeds
over the outer waters 21Z Sat. Gales spread to the inner waters by
late afternoon. Wind speeds start to decrease Sat, but remain
in solid small craft advisory criteria.
Medium range models continue to show differences beyond Sun. Went
more with the ECMWF Mon through Thu. Expect a few days of quieter
winds toward the middle of next week, but another strong front is
likely around the middle of next week. Overall details remain
sketchy as the GFS shows the system splitting, with the primary
energy headed toward California. Should this occur, the front
would be delayed.
Seas running around 12 to 14 ft, but will build to the mid and
upper teens by early afternoon. There is the possibility of 20
foot seas this evening. Seas ease a bit Sat, but increase to the
upper teens Sat night. There looks to be another shot of 20-foot
seas late Mon and Mon night. Weishaar
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Saturday for
Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to
60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM PDT this
morning for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR
from 10 to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for winds from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM
PDT this afternoon for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater
WA to Florence OR out 10 nm.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Saturday for
Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out
10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 PM PDT this
afternoon for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to
Florence OR out 10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar until 5 AM
PDT Saturday.
&&
$$
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
946 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move off the east coast this morning. A
large area of cool, dry high pressure will build across the region
through the weekend and remain in place through the first half of
next week. Low pressure aloft will approach from the southwest
late next week and bring our next chance for rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 AM EDT Friday...
The latest forecast is on track regarding most elements of the
forecast. The only notable adjustment through the remainder of the
morning hours will be adjustment downward of the forecast amount
of cloud cover across the mountains. Very limited cloud cover
remains currently. This will be reflected in the update. We still
expect an increase in coverage again by the afternoon hours, with
the greatest focus over the far western and southwestern portions
of the area.
As of 410 AM EDT Friday...
The long awaited cold front moved through the area early this
morning along with scattered showers bringing 1/2 inch or less to
northern parts of the CWA, and generally only a few hundredths to
the southern areas. Last vestiges of precipitation at this hour
extend from Watauga to Halifax counties and are quickly exiting to
the southeast. HRRR has had a good handle on the exit of the
precipitation indicating all night that it would exit in the
08Z-09Z time frame and indeed it is.
The synoptic pattern is far from ideal for a normal upslope flow
situation across the western mountains. Large scale riding aloft
across much of the central and creeping into the eastern U.S. with
troughing across New England and the Canadian Maritimes resulting
in an elongated west-east area of surface high pressure anchored
over the Ohio Valley. This high will gradually shift south-
southeast through the course of next week providing several days
of dry weather.
Cloud trends have been downward rather quickly across the
mountains this morning given that the post-frontal surface winds
are north-northwest to north-northeast, which is not an ideal
upslope surface flow. BLF, LWB, and BCB have already cleared.
There remains at least some potential for low clouds to develop in
the BLF-JFZ area as the ridges there tend to be more W-E oriented
and a northerly flow will provide for some upslope. Thus, not sure
it will be completely clear from this point forward through this
forecast period, but certainly the trend will be in that direction
by afternoon.
After a period of gusty winds immediately behind the front, winds
have diminished more than expected early this morning. After
sunrise, winds are expected to increase again and become gusty
from the NNW west to NNE Piedmont. Winds will decrease again after
sunset as the high center drifts closer to the region.
As noted above, the synoptic pattern still features a large scale
ridge anchored across the central U.S. Therefore, we will only see
a glancing blow of cool air. 850mb temps fail to fall below 0C
throughout the next 24-36 hours, then rise afterwards. While
temperatures will fall back to more normal levels and there are no
further signs of temperatures in the 80s, temperatures will still
average above normal, around 5-8 degrees.
Regarding frost potential across the Piedmont, the area where we
have not reached the deadline for ending fall frost headlines
yet, the location of the surface high, potential mixing from N-NE
winds, and the dry air mass may limit frost potential. The frost
tool only highlights Rockbridge county for frost potential Sat
morning. In coordination with other offices, have decided to hold
off on any Frost Advisory at this time, but did include patchy
frost across this area in the grids.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Saturday morning will
slowly move east to overhead by Sunday. The high center will slide
towards the coast Sunday night into Monday morning.
High temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 50s in the
northwest mountains to the mid 60s in the Piedmont. With light
winds and mostly clear skies, low temperatures Saturday night
will vary from the lower 30s in the colder western valleys to near
40 along the southern Blue Ridge mountains. Added the mention of
patchy frost to the colder western valleys. Temperatures will
moderate on Sunday to highs from the mid 50s in the mountains to
near 70 degrees in the foothills and Piedmont. Dry weather will
continue Sunday night with lows generally from the mid 30s in the
northwest mountains to around 40 degrees in the Piedmont.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...
The unseasonably warm weather will continue next week, with some
cooling toward the end of the week.
Dry weather expected to continue with upper ridge over our area
early in the period suppressed by a shortwave digging from the Great
Lakes into the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. This will send a
front through but moisture appears scant, perhaps a few showers in
the mountains Wednesday. Leaned towards a blend of ECWMF and WPC for
pops. High pressure will build behind the passing front to bring in
drier air Thursday and Thursday night. Moisture increases on Friday
into Friday night with next frontal system.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 735 AM EDT Friday...
Cold front has moved through the region, precipitation has exited
to the southeast, and clouds have cleared east of the Alleghany
front. Low clouds linger across southeast West Virginia. Orientation
and elongation of surface high across western OH valley is
resulting in a north to northeast flow behind the front as
opposed to the customary west to northwest flow. In general this
limits upslope flow across the Alleghanys, but to some extent
redirects the potential further south toward the more west-east
oriented mountains of southern WV/southwest VA. Indeed this is the
case at this hour with low end MVFR cigs in place from KBLF to
KJFZ and points west-northwest. Models suggest that these clouds
will tend to erode during the day, but may linger at times,
perhaps into the evening. Feel that KLWB will generally stay SCT
at worst and BCB will as well. Thus, outside KBLF, largely
expecting VFR ceilings and visibilities at the TAF sites through
the TAF valid period as overall dry air mass advects into the
region from the west.
While there is some potential for ground fog early Saturday, feel
T/Td spreads may be too large for much. Advertised a brief period
of MVFR at KLWB for now, but no where else at this time.
Winds will remain NNE-NE east of the Blue Ridge and NNW-N west of
the Blue Ridge through the TAF valid period. Speeds 8-12kts with
gusts 18-22kts through 23Z, decreasing to 4-7kts after 00Z.
Medium to high confidence in cigs through 18Z, except KBLF where
confidence is only medium. High confidence in vsbys through the
TAF valid period. Medium to high confidence in wind
speed/direction throughout the TAF valid period.
Extended aviation discussion...
Dry high pressure will maintain overall VFR conditions Saturday through
Tuesday. The exception will be some late night/early morning
mountain and river valley fog that will develop in some locations.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...DS/RAB
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK/WP
AVIATION...RAB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
703 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.AVIATION...
High pressure sliding from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley tonight
will maintain VFR clear conditions during the evening. Westerly flow
around the north flank of the high will then bring an increase in
low level moisture, as indicated by surface dewpoint in the mid 40s
over Wisconsin/Illinois, into lower Michigan overnight. This process
will continue to be monitored for signs of fog/stratus as it
interacts with warm Lake Michigan water. Scattered IFR clouds is
introduced at MBS and FNT to go along with MVFR visibility as
gradient flow should favor stratus over fog from what can be
determined at this time. A subset of mesoscale model output
continues to advertise this moisture being capable of MVFR/IFR
restriction overnight into Saturday morning. Development would first
occur over NW lower in time to provide some observational evidence
for a more aggressive forecast for the MBS to FNT area in later
updates, or not.
FOR DTW... VFR clear conditions will persist for much of the night
before a fog time window opens around sunrise. Shallow MVFR
restriction remains the best approach for now while monitoring
observational trends for lower visibility or possibly some IFR
stratus. Impacts are more difficult to measure as moisture moves
more slowly into the DTW area from the Midwest compared to points
north.
//DTW Threshold Probabilities...
* Low for ceiling below 5000 ft late tonight into Saturday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
DISCUSSION...
A dry and seasonably warm environment will mark conditions through
the upcoming weekend. Moderating thermal profile prompted by a
steady increase in upper heights through this period, the local area
immediately downstream of an elongating upper ridge slowly building
toward the Great Lakes. Deeper column warm air advection ramps up
tonight and Saturday as the flow backs to westerly, allowing for a
steady exit of the residual low level thermal trough. High pressure
anchoring across the Ohio Valley will then introduce a light
southwest low level gradient. 925 mb temperatures by Saturday
afternoon roughly 10 degrees warmer than readings noted today /10-
11C/. This profile will support afternoon highs reaching into the
lower 60s. There is the potential for a fog/very low stratus
component to emerge late tonight, which could subsequently provide
an early day disruption to the diurnal temperature response. Dense
fog formation this past night across WI/IL centered near the
surface high. Downstream advection of this moisture will commence
tonight within backing flow, with higher resolution model guidance
(HRRR, RAP & 4km NAM) displaying very low surface condensation
pressure deficits with saturated near surface conditions per
sounding data by 09z-12z. A high degree of uncertainty here, with
the maintenance of a light SW gradient north of the high perhaps
maintaining just enough mixing to mitigate a larger fog issue.
Will simply provide an introductory patchy fog mention at this
stage.
High pressure eases northward into the region by Sunday as the upper
ridge axis enters the western Great Lakes. Existing air mass
similar to that noted Saturday /maybe a touch warmer/, so highs of
low-mid 60s attainable under a high degree of insolation. More
favorable positioning of the high nearby may provide a greater
opportunity for fog development late Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Surface high pressure and an amplified upper-level ridge will
continue to push east across the eastern half of the U.S., bringing
another round of dry conditions to the region. Temperature highs
will continue to sit steady in the lower 60s as light S/SW winds
advect warmer air into the region. The next chance for precipitation
will come Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as an upper-level
disturbance moves through, however, with weak forcing and dry low-
level conditions, we`re leaving the PoPs low. Otherwise, high
pressure will continue to be the main story for the week, leaving us
relatively dry through the better part of the week.
MARINE...
Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots will back to the west-southwest
this evening and increase to 20 knots or so over Lake Huron as the
pressure gradient tightens for a short time between high pressure
over the Ohio Valley and a shortwave trough passing just north of
the Great Lakes. Wind gusts will approach 25 knots, especially from
03z-09z. The most persistent gusts will exist where wind funnels up
Saginaw Bay and also through the Straits. Winds will gradually
weaken and become light and variable Sunday as a warmer airmass
works into the area. Light southerly winds will then develop on
Monday as this high settles southeast of the region.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...MR/AM
MARINE.......DG
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
253 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
High pressure over northern Illinois will move slowly southeast
to the Ohio Valley tonight, and then to the eastern seaboard on
Monday. This will provide fair weather across the area through
early next week. Lows tonight in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Temperatures will warm a bit over the weekend with highs in 60s
and lows in the 40s expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
Main focus of short term will be potential for stratus/fog
development.
Stratus decks at or below 2000 ft have been slow to erode across
portions of northern Ohio as well as eastern Iowa/NW Illinois/SW
Wisconsin on the periphery of sfc high pressure centered over N
Illinois. The center will drift slowly south through the period with
trajectories of trapped low level moisture seeming to push the
moisture currently NW of the area into portions of Lower Michigan
with Ohio moisture dropping south. HRRR appears to laugh at this
scenario bringing in stratus into NW areas overnight.
Given crossover temperatures will be in the middle to upper 30s in
many locations and forecasted lows will be at least a few degrees
warmer as well as winds around 5 knots suggests fog potential may be
quite limited. Will have a few clouds in the grids but at this point
think mostly clear to clear skies should prevail.
Dry conditions will prevail into Saturday with mostly sunny to sunny
skies and highs reaching into the lower to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
Conditions will not feel anything like early November normally
would with all signs still pointing towards above to much above
normal temperatures for the area and limited chances for rainfall.
Upper level ridge will move into the area over the weekend with 582
dm heights edging north by Sunday evening. Mixing will take place
through at least 925 mb and possibly 900 mb yielding afternoon highs
Sat through Monday well into the 60s and possibly a few 70s southern
third or so. Northern stream energy will try to force a front south
into the region Tuesday with ECMWF/GFS varying on handling. Will
continue with dry forecast for the time being.
Ridging will build back in with heights of 579 to 582 in place once
again. Decreasing sun angle will keep full mixing from taking place
with highs in the low to middle 60s. Towards the end of the period,
models show a somewhat more significant trough trying to move into
the Great Lakes with large differences in scenarios (both for
temperature and precip). Will hold dry forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Fri Nov 4 2016
VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the period.
Scattered/broken MVFR stratocu deck slowly pushing westward toward
KFWA early this afternoon should halt and mix out before impacting
the terminal. Otherwise, fairly quiet conditions with high
pressure will continue to slowly drift southeast across the region
tonight into Saturday. Winds will remain light through the period
northerly early in the period backing west/southwest by tomorrow
morning.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/NG
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...NG
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
334 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.SHORT TERM...
Nicely stacked cyclone was creeping ENE across SE Arizona early this
afternoon upstream of an upper ridge axis poised over the middle of
the Lone Star State. A weak trough was attempting to erode this
trough, but so far ascent and low level saturation have been
lackluster with this wave. Worse, visible satellite shows clear
skies already expanding into our western zones in the wake of this
wave and its shield of high clouds. This clearing is likely to be
consumed by thick stratus tonight as widespread upslope/easterly
winds transport richer mixing ratios westward. Model soundings
support this otherwise ideal pattern of widespread stratus and even
saturate the column deep enough for drizzle at times. This drizzle
could quell the dense fog potential, but RAP, HRRR and MOS indicate
otherwise.
Background ascent looks to remain very muted on Saturday over all
but our far western tiers of counties. Lift there will be aided by a
zone of weakening upper diffluence ahead of the cyclone lifting NE
across the Four Corners. Slight uptick in isentropic ascent could
garner some convective showers near the NM state line, but profiles
are looking less and less promising for any thunder with surface and
elevated CAPE largely absent for much of the day. Farther east, the
bases of very low stratus may rise just enough through the day to
allow for some reprieve from drizzle, but max temps continue to
trend lower toward the coolest guidance given minimal insolation.
.LONG TERM...
Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast late Saturday
into Sunday as a relatively weak trough lags behind the center of
an upper low interacting with the northern jet across the Rockies
and into the northern Plains. As the trough axis shifts east of
our longitude we will see a narrow swath of drier air briefly
fill in from the Texas/New Mexico border east through the South
Plains to the edge of the Caprock. Another closed low splits from
amplifying ridge across Canada and begins to shift due south out
of the central Rockies toward West Texas on Monday. Surface
pressure falls across a cold front pushing south out of the Texas
Panhandle through the South Plains early Tuesday will increase
chances for more widespread light rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rain chances continue through the end of next week as the upper
low stalls to our west. Not much confidence in details beyond the
middle of next week until we see how the strongly amplified ridge
to our north begins to break down. Overall the model guidance is
in good agreement with the evolution of the low tracking south out
of the Rockies and parking to our west.
After a warm October and beginning of November we we will see
plenty of clouds and precipitation chances to help drop
temperatures below normal values over the next week or so with
Monday near 70 in our brief window of drier air. Otherwise we`ll
see highs in the low to mid 60s and overnight lows gradually
cooling from 50s this weekend into the low 40s by the end of the
week.
$$
93/55
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
224 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Overcast conditions have prevailed across mainly southern portions
of the area. Winds will gradually veer to southeasterly this evening
and overnight resulting in moisture moving into northwest Oklahoma
which may lead to fog there. Further southwest across southwest
Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas, visibility is already
slightly reduced and stratus is more extensive. Visibility may fall
as we cool tonight but the better chance of fog seems to be further
northwest where cooling initially this evening may a little quicker
(drier boundary layer and only modest cirrus coverage). RAP forecast
soundings suggest enough depth to the saturated layer for some
drizzle, as was observed across potions of the area this morning.
Have highlighted the most likely areas for patchy drizzle later
tonight through the morning based on latest short term model data,
but spatial adjustments may be needed based on trends.
A cut off low will gradually move northeast and accelerate as it
opens this weaken. The time period for maximum forcing for ascent
and moisture advection that will lead to the highest precipitation
probabilities will be late Sunday through early Monday. Have
deemphasized thunder in the public forecast by limited
thunderstorms to slight chance during this period given lack of
instability seen in model forecast soundings.
Starting the beginning of next week and into the middle of next
week, typical uncertainties arise. Deterministic output is similar
in the overall pattern of departing wave to our east and a
south/southwest moving increasingly closed upper low to our west.
The individual GFS ensemble members show a myriad of possibilities
with how this will evolve and consequently where any areas of
noteworthy ascent are positioned. Until confidence increases,
probabilities will be limited to low-mid range chance and spread
across several days. Adjustments to model blends were minimal for
this forecast issuance. Temperatures should be close to normal
through the forecast period.
BRB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 54 71 50 69 / 0 0 0 30
Hobart OK 55 65 53 65 / 10 10 10 50
Wichita Falls TX 59 67 53 67 / 10 10 10 60
Gage OK 47 66 50 66 / 0 10 30 50
Ponca City OK 51 72 48 70 / 0 0 0 10
Durant OK 54 72 49 70 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
04/12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
257 PM MST Fri Nov 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Some clearing from the west tonight with a general
drying trend over the weekend. A weak system could bring another
chance of showers in eastern areas around mid week. Daytime highs
will be close to or slightly above seasonal averages for early
November, with overnight lows seasonably cool.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The low has lifted just north of our area near the
central Arizona border with New Mexico. A partial clearing trend
with some cumulus popping up on recirculated boundary layer
moisture. Greenlee county will still be going for a few more
hours, but most of the activity will be north and east of our
area. Patchy fog possible in eastern areas Saturday morning.
The latest HRRR shows diminishing dew point trends, and along
with the partial clearing, a few spots will drop a degree or two
lower tonight. Tonight and Saturday night we will see chilly
seasonal temperatures with coldest isolated eastern valley
locations in Cochise county dropping into the middle to upper 30s.
Daytime highs will climb a few degrees as a shortwave ridge phases
across the area from the west over the weekend, but not far from
seasonal averages for early November. However, the main strength
of the ridge will probably stay west of our area with impulses
sagging back into the front of the ridge and into New Mexico. Some
easterly spill-over from that could bring a few showers to eastern
areas the second half of the new week.
&&
.AVIATION...Partial clearing from the west with isolated showers
and thunderstorms possible near the New Mexico border. Brief
patchy fog possible overnight for eastern sites including KSAD
and KDUG. Normal diurnal wind trends through the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A few showers in mainly far eastern areas tonight
and Saturday, otherwise a general drying trend from the west into
early next week. Normal diurnal wind trends. 20-foot winds will
generally be less than 15 mph, except for some afternoon
gustiness.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Meyer
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