Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/03/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
947 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
At 3 PM, skies were mostly cloudy across the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. Despite these clouds, temperatures have been able to
climb into the mid and upper 50s north of Interstate 94 and into
the lower and mid 60s for the remainder of the area. Weak 700 mb
frontogenesis has aided in the development of scattered showers
across parts of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Further
west another short wave trough was producing a few sprinkles
across southwest Minnesota.
For tonight, the 02.12z models are in good agreement that the
700 mb frontogenesis will quickly wane across southwest Wisconsin
and northeast Iowa late this afternoon. As a result, removed the
rain shower chances for this evening. Meanwhile the models are
struggling on whether any rain can reach the ground with the short
wave trough moving out of southwest Minnesota. The soundings
continue to show that much of the lift associated with this wave
goes to saturating the air mass above 800 mb. Since there have been
limited reports of sprinkles to our west this afternoon, opted to
keep the forecast dry for now. This would fit in well with the
latest HRRR and RAP model solutions.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
On Thursday night and Friday morning, a ridge of high pressure at
both the surface and aloft will build across the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. This ridge will then remain across the region
through Sunday night. The 925 mb temperatures will warm into the
9 to 12C range on Friday, 12 to 15C range on Saturday, and around
12C on Sunday. These temperatures are 1 to 2 standard deviations
above normal. The model guidance looked to be too cool through
this time period, so bumped them up anywhere from 1 to 5F (the
warmest temperatures will be along and west of the Mississippi
River). Even by doing that, we still may be too conservative with
the high temperatures on Saturday. If the latest ECMWF verifies on
Saturday with its 925 mb temperatures around 15C (which is where
they were on Tuesday afternoon), there will be the potential for a
few record highs to be either tied or broken.
From late Sunday night through Tuesday night, there is a 20 to
30 percent of rain showers in the forecast grids. This is
associated with an upper level trough and surface cold front
moving the through the region. If the 02.12z model guidance
verifies, we may be able to confine these rain chances to Monday
and Monday night. Temperatures behind this cold front will be in
the 50s which is still slightly warmer than normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 947 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
High clouds have departed, leaving some lingering mid level clouds
which will likely come and go primarily north of LSE/RST through
midday Thursday. Still not anticipating any fog/stratus
development at LSE given stronger winds just off the deck and some
thicker mid level clouds likely to pass overhead at times, though
it does remain a very small possibility for a few hours either
side of sunrise. Otherwise, light surface winds under 10 knots are
expected right on through Thursday evening.
&&
.CLIMATE...Saturday
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
With the high temperatures forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s
(potentially even warmer if the ECMWF verifies warmer aloft),
there will be the potential for a few record high temperatures to
be either tied or broken on Saturday. Here are some of the record
high temperatures for November 5th.
Austin MN - 71F in 2008
Charles City IA - 71F in 1945
Fayette IA - 73F in 1895
La Crosse WI - 71F in 1924
Medford WI - 70F in 1938
Prairie du Chien WI - 74F in 2008 and 2015
Rochester MN - 70F in 1893
Sparta WI - 75F in 2008
Winona MN - 74F in 2008 and 2015
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...Lawrence
CLIMATE...BOYNE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1025 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across southern New England Thursday and
bring a period of showers, especially across northern MA. The
attending front will move off the coast Thursday evening followed
by much cooler and blustery weather Friday. A weak cold front
sweeps through over the weekend, followed by another front toward
midweek. Otherwise, high pressure brings fair and seasonable
weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM update...
No major changes to the ongoing forecast. Tweaked forecast to
bring it back in line with observed trends.
7 PM update...
Zone of altocu across northern MA, but still lots of clear skies
or thin cirrus over Srn New England. Lower thicker clouds over
Western and Central NY pushing east, which should move into
Western MA/CT around 11 pm and to Eastern MA by 2 am. Note also
that the 21Z HRRR uses a light east wind to bring an area of
fog/stratus onshore into Eastern MA including BOS. However,
no clouds noted on satellite where the HRRR shows the clouds at
23Z. So we will leave out any fog at this time.
This update has adjusted sky cover and cloud bases to match these
conditions. No other significant changes.
Previous discussion...
Frontal wave moves east from the Gt Lakes tonight. Deeper moisture
and best forcing for ascent will be across western and upstate NY
where focus for rain will be. It should remain mostly dry through
the night with just a low risk for a few showers spilling into NW
and northern MA very late tonight. Low temps above normal in the
upper 40s and lower 50s with mostly cloudy skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday...
Frontal wave tracks across SNE during the day but exact track is
uncertain and this will have an impact on temps across the north
and how widespread showers will be. GFS and ECMWF have track near
the Mass Pike while NAM and RGEM are further north near the NH
border. Most of the GEFS members favor a more southern track so we
based the forecast on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF.
Best forcing will be along and north of the low track which
suggests most widespread showers will be north of the Mass Pike
where PoPs increased to categorical. Showers will become more
scattered closer to the south coast but expect all areas to see
some rainfall with frontal passage. Rain moves in before midday in
northern MA with a near washout possible for a time with showers
developing in the afternoon south of the pike and possibly not til
late day near south coast. This is a quick moving system which
will limit rainfall amounts to 0.25-0.50" in northern MA
decreasing to 0.10" or less near the south coast. Elevated
instability parameters are marginal and it is possible low level
jet may remain south of New Eng so thunder potential is low. Just
a low risk of an isold rumble of thunder, mainly south of the Mass
Pike.
Temps are tricky Thu and will depend on the exact track of the low
with a sharp N-S temp gradient likely. Based on the forecast low
track, temps may remain in the 50s across northern MA north of the
low, with highs well into the 60s and possibly approaching 70
degrees across portions of NE CT/RI and SE MA where it may remain
dry into early afternoon. Falling temps late in the day after
wind shift.
Thursday night...
Low pres moves east of New Eng dragging cold front to the south
Thu evening. Any lingering showers in the east will end in the
evening followed by partial clearing overnight. However, low
clouds will linger in the east. N/NW winds will become gusty with
gusts 20-25 mph and up to 30 mph Cape/Islands. Lows upper 30s to
mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Big Picture...
Longwave pattern shows a ridge in the Western USA and trough over
the Northeast. Shortwave pattern shows ridges moving eastward from
the Western USA but de-amplifying as they reach the Eastern USA.
Shortwave troughs cross New England Friday-Saturday-Sunday, then
again toward midweek. Model mass fields are similar Friday and
Saturday. Small differences develop with the shortwave moving over
our area Sunday and off to the east on Monday.
Moisture fields are limited through early next week. Upper contour
fields start the long term a little cooler than normal, then trend
milder early next week. Expect seasonably cool trending to
seasonably warm.
Details...
Friday... Upper trough sweeps across with surface low from the
northwest bringing colder and drier air to the region. Expect skies
to start either clear or clearing during this day. Diurnal clouds
likely especially over Western/Central MA. Mixing reaches about
900mb with temps aloft supporting max temps in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Winds in the mixed layer will be around 20 knots, possibly 25
knots near the shoreline.
Saturday-Sunday... One shallow shortwave crosses Saturday, and a
deeper one on Sunday. The result will be fair weather. Patchy
clouds, especially in Northern MA, but just isolated showers. Temps
in the mixed layer will support max temps upper 40s and lower 50s.
Overnight temps should also be seasonably cool, so expect upper 20s
and 30s.
Monday through Wednesday... High pressure builds over the region
with fair skies. Brisk north wind on Monday as the high approaches,
then lighter wind Tuesday-Wednesday. Generally dry weather with the
best chance of showers coming with the upper trough Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Thursday Night/...
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
VFR with cloud bases around 4500 feet moving in from the west
11pm-2am. Patchy fog still possible, but the increasing sky cover
will work against that.
Thursday...Moderate confidence. Lowering to MVFR in developing
showers from north to south during the day. Showers reach south
coast after 18z. Areas of IFR may develop as winds turn northerly
behind a cold front. Best chance of IFR will be across northern
zones. Low risk of an isolated t-storm.
Thursday night...Moderate confidence. Areas of MVFR/IFR cigs in
the evening along with sct showers, mainly east, then improving to
VFR from west to east. MVFR cigs may persist all night SE New Eng
and especially Cape/Islands. Post-frontal NW winds will gust to
20-25 kt and possibly up to 30 kt across the Cape/Islands.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Uncertainty in timing of
lower cigs and how low cigs get.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Uncertainty in timing of
lower cigs and how low cigs get.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
VFR through the period. North-northwest winds gusting 20-25 knots
Friday and Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Thursday Night/...High confidence.
Tonight...Light winds and seas.
Thursday...Increasing SW winds developing, mainly south coastal
waters where gusts 20-25 kt possible later in the afternoon.
Across NE waters, easterly winds will shift to the north in the
afternoon with gusts to 20 kt by late day. Showers developing
across NE waters by midday with showers not reaching south coastal
waters until late in the day. Will need to consider expanding
Small Craft Advisories into additional nearshore waters. Will take
a bit more time to evaluate this overnight, as conditions are
marginal.
Thursday night...Increasing N/NW winds with gusts 25-30 kt
possible, especially eastern waters with building seas. SCA issued
for outer waters as well as nearshore eastern waters. May need to
expand SCA for rest of waters. Showers move offshore in the
evening.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday... High pressure builds from the west. NNW winds will gust to
25 knots on most waters. Seas maintain at 5-9 feet on the Eastern
Waters and Southern Outer Waters, subsiding Friday night. Small
Craft Advisory expected on most waters.
Saturday... Winds and seas will be below Small Craft thresholds.
Sunday-Monday... Cold front moves offshore. NNW winds increase again
Sunday with 25 knot gusts. These winds linger into Monday. Seas
build to 5-7 feet on the outer waters Sunday night and Monday. A
Small Craft Advisory may be needed.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for
ANZ231-232-250-251-254.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for
ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/Belk/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...Belk/WTB/KJC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1024 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will move along a stalled frontal boundary
and over our region tonight and Thursday, producing several periods
of rain. It will remain mild through tonight before cooler air
spreads across the region later Thursday and Friday. There will be a
return to drier weather and more seasonable temperatures following
the wake of the cold front for the end of the week and the upcoming
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Late evening surface analysis shows a stalled frontal zone
stretching from Lake Erie northeastward across the Niagara Frontier
to the Saint Lawrence Valley. This feature will be the focus for our
weather for the next 36 hours, bringing several periods of rain
tonight into early Thursday as several baroclinic waves run along
the stalled frontal zone.
Regional radar imagery showing a concentrated area of rain
stretching from the Niagara Frontier eastward across the Genesee
Valley to the eastern Lake Ontario region. The HRRR has had a good
handle on this rain through the evening, and suggests this first
batch of steady rain will taper off during the early overnight from
Rochester westward, offering a brief break before the next batch
arrives late tonight. The Southern Tier will see less rain through
the early overnight, with just a few scattered light showers.
An anomalously warm and moist airmass is in place across western NY,
with the KBUF 12Z sounding showing 850 mb temperatures about 12C,
and PW values about 1.2 inches. Both of these values are above the
90th percentile, and near the daily records, per the SPC sounding
climatology page.
Another area of widespread rain event will develop overnight and
continue through Thursday morning as the next wave of low pressure
moves along the frontal zone. The parent trough will slide eastward
from central Canada toward the Hudson Bay, a sharp shortwave
cresting the west coast ridge in British Columbia this morning will
dive toward the Great Lakes by Thursday morning. As this wave digs
toward the lower Great Lakes by Thursday morning, it will combine
with the stalled frontal boundary and increase the moisture
advection into the region on strengthening southwesterly low-level
jet. Meanwhile western NY will be located in the right entrance
region of a 120kt H25 jet by 12Z Thursday, along with increasing low-
level frontogensis, supporting deep synoptic lift and ample moisture
to work with. The combination of quality dynamics and moisture will
support the widespread rainfall. As the wave moves east of the area
during the afternoon, rain will taper off to scattered showers from
west to east.
We should see a few hour break in precipitation as the driest air
crosses the region Thursday afternoon, but as we approach early
Thursday evening, the steepening lapse rates aloft along with low-
level moisture under upper-level trough will cross the region. This
will support some lake and topography enhanced showers developing on
the northwesterly flow. These will likely focus along the Chautauqua
ridge downstream from Lake Erie, from Rochester across the northern
Finger Lakes downstream from Lake Ontario, and the North Country on
the upslope flow into the Tug Hill and northern Adirondacks.
Rainfall totals for the entire event will range from a half an inch
to just over three quarters of an inch, with the highest rain
amounts expected along the Thruway corridor to the southern Tug Hill
region.
Temperatures on Thursday will likely be at or near the daytime high
first thing in the morning, with the northwesterly cold advection
keeping us from seeing much, if any, of a daytime rise in
temperatures. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s Thursday morning,
with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s by Thursday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Shower activity will continue to taper off during the course of
Thursday night, with lingering showers over the North Country mixing
with and changing to some wet snow showers as colder air pours in
from eastern Canada. Otherwise, while the bulk of the mid and upper
level moisture will be stripped away, a strengthening subsidence
inversion will keep a wealth of moisture trapped in the low levels.
This moisture will be lifted into a deck of widespread cloud cover
by a northerly upslope flow regime that will become established in
the wake of the departing frontal wave.
Ridging become established over the middle of the country on Friday,
while its corresponding surface high will stretch from the Great
Lakes region back to the southern Plains. While this will provide
dry weather on Friday, lingering clouds cover will be slow to clear,
as a fair amount of low level moisture will likely be trapped
beneath a strong subsidence inversion. This will likely retard any
true clearing until midday or the afternoon. Further aggravating the
clearing will be the cold air advection pouring due south from Lake
Ontario. The fresh Canadian airmass will also mean a much cooler
day, as afternoon temperatures will not make it out of the 40s.
By the weekend, our region will then find itself between an
impressive ridge centered over the nations mid section and the
backside of a trough over Maine/Canadian Maritimes. While this
will keep us from enjoying the benefits of very mild air over the
Mid Western states...we should not have to deal with any
significant weather either. The only feature we will have to watch
will be a robust shortwave that will dive southeast into the
backside of the aforementioned trough. This will support the
passage of a moisture starved sfc frontal boundary, with only a
minimal chc for any rain or wet snow showers for the Finger Lakes
and Eastern Lake Ontario regions.
The GFS ensembles have been fairly consistent with backing the
western edge of the sharp upper trough across New England a little
further west to the eastern half of New York State...with an
embedded shortwave poised to cross over that region during the day,
while the ECMWF keeps the western edge of the aforementioned upper
trough and embedded shortwave east of New York State. Due to the
uncertainty in the placement of the aforementioned features... will
keep slight chance pops in for a few showers across the North
country...possibly mixed with some wet snow across the higher
elevations of the Tug Hill and Western Dacks. This will also set up
a fairly decent west to east temperature gradient...with western New
York on the warmer side of the envelope seeing highs in the lower
50s...while areas across the North country will experience lower
temperatures as highs only reaching the mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday night through Monday night...an upper level ridge cresting
over the Northeast combined with surface high pressure will provide
tranquil weather.
A slow moving cold front will approach our region from the Upper
Great Lakes on Tuesday evening. This should encourage continued
warming ahead of the front with precipitation holding off until
after nightfall. GFS is a slower than ECMWF but this may be the
greater amplitude of the GFS, and may be more realistic solution
based on the seasonal conditions. The cold front should move through
the area Tuesday night and Wednesday with some lingering post-
frontal showers on Wednesday.
Monday and Tuesday will have highs in the 50s with lows in the 30s,
coldest across the Southern Tier and Tug Hill. Wednesday will see
mid 40s to near 50 in the frontal regime.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The first area of steadier rain will move from west to east across
the region this evening with a temporary dip to MVFR and brief IFR
conditions in the heavier rain. By late evening and the early
overnight the first area of rain will move to areas east of Lake
Ontario, while Western NY has a brief break in the steadier rain. A
second wave of low pressure will move along the frontal zone late
tonight and Thursday, allowing another 3-5 hour period of steady
rain to spread across the region.
Later tonight and Thursday CIGS and VSBY will steadily deteriorate
as low level moisture pools along the stalled frontal zone and
saturates the low levels. Expect both IFR CIGS and VSBY to become
widespread by 04-06Z, then continue through the first half of
Thursday. IFR will likely impact the busy morning push at KBUF and
KROC, although there is only a low chance of conditions approaching
airfield minimums.
The wave of low pressure and steadier rain will move away from the
region Thursday afternoon, with CIGS/VSBY improving from northwest
to southeast.
Outlook...
Friday...Improving to VFR.
Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A frontal boundary will remain draped across the Eastern Great Lakes
today and tomorrow. This will be a weak boundary, with no strong
winds along the front. It will not be until after a surface low
passes to the east of the lakes Thursday that cooler air spreads
southward across the Eastern Great Lakes, with winds and waves
picking up, and likely nearing small craft advisory criteria by
Thursday night.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...RSH/TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
943 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.UPDATE...
The forecast is solid for tonight through Thursday morning across
SE Michigan. Added a mention of locally heavy rainfall to shorter
fused products as showers/storms focus along the stalled frontal
zone near the i-94 corridor with some tendency for training
motion. Mid evening radar mosaic also indicates increasing
coverage of showers higher up the frontal slope over west-central
lower Michigan that will fill in from the ongoing activity
northward through the I-69 corridor before tapering off into the
Tri Cities. As mentioned in the afternoon discussion, the moisture
supply in this system is high end for this time of year. The 00Z
DTX sounding measured PW at 1.31 inches which matches the record
high in the DTX upper air database for 00Z November 3rd.
The surface wave rippling along the front will exit into eastern
Ohio toward sunrise. As this occurs, there will be a rapid
diminishing trend in the rain pattern followed by clearing of low
clouds and fog through mid Thursday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 707 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
AVIATION...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is taking shape over the
western Great Lakes during the early evening and is on schedule to
affect much of the SE Michigan terminals tonight. Mid to late
evening arrival timing looks good with activity then lasting through
much of the overnight hours. The DTW corridor up to about PTK will
take the brunt of aviation impacts this time around as locally heavy
rainfall combines with the position of the stalled surface front to
produce IFR to LIFR restriction. Recent trends in upstream radar and
lightning data also support inclusion of thunder in that area during
the peak of the rainfall portion of the event. Expect more of a
showery character for points north toward MBS where a trend toward
VFR will be monitored as dry/cooler air begins to move in from
northern lower Michigan. This air will make southward progress on
the heels of low pressure exiting into eastern Ohio toward sunrise.
All locations are expected to be VFR by mid Thursday morning with
enough northwest wind component to confine clouds from Lake Huron
east of the terminals. The remaining diurnal response is expected to
be VFR inland from the lakes through Thursday afternoon.
For DTW... The front stalled just south of DTW will linger there as
low pressure slides along the boundary during the night. Expect
IFR/LIFR ceiling to consolidate within the front as the low brings
another surge of showers/storms through the region. The best chance
of thunder will be late evening into early overnight during the
rainfall peak. Northerly wind will then increase as the system exits
eastward toward sunrise with dry/cooler air bringing improvement by
mid Thursday morning.
//DTW Threshold Probabilities...
* High for ceiling below 5000 ft tonight.
* Moderate for thunderstorms within a few hours of midnight.
* Low for ceiling below 200 feet and/or visibility below 1/2 mile
tonight into Thursday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
DISCUSSION...
Plume of moisture can be seen on water vapor imagery being drawn
from the tropical Pacific up into the Great Lakes, steered northward
by an upper low over the Desert Southwest and ahead of another
trough dropping through Central Canada. PW values around 1.4 over
Southeast Michigan tonight seem like a reasonable estimate based on
model data and upstream RAOB observations (KDTX was already 1.3 at
12Z). The moisture will have plenty of forcing to work with as the
frontal boundary over the area begins to tighten and sink slowly
southward. This will occur as right entrance region forcing from a
jet streak over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada becomes
positioned overhead, helping to prompt a good FGEN response later
this evening and overnight. Upper shortwave moving through the area
at 3PM was generating an area of rain with embedded thunder. This
area will exit east with the wave over the next few hours, leaving
some uncertainty with precipitation coverage through mid-evening as
subsidence settles in behind the upper wave. Models show other
forcing mechanisms ramping up during this time-frame (21-03Z) as
upper jet forcing works into the area and as isentropic ascent
(centered around the 294K surface) increases along the frontal
boundary. Past several runs of the HRRR have kept the area fairly
dry through the evening, a very plausible scenario, and pops were
lowered during this time. Subsidence will eventually work east later
in the evening, and expect the next round of rain with embedded
thunder to begin and last into the night. Lapse rates look
sufficiently steep to continue a low-chance mention for thunder
through the night. Cooler and drier air pushing into to the area
behind the front will end chances for precipitation from northwest
to southeast, with activity expected to be just out of the area
around sunrise. Patchy fog was also added through tomorrow morning.
Fog may occur this evening in between rounds of rain/thunder as
winds remain light, mix out as rain arrives, with a few patches
reforming late after the rain finally exits again.
Secondary cold front will work down through the area Thursday,
however drier air will provide only a very low chance for showers
north of M-59 during the afternoon/evening. Surface high pressure
will build into the area Thursday night and early Friday in response
to strong 588dm upper ridge amplifying over the central CONUS. This
will provide dry weather for Friday and Friday night. Max
temperatures will run much more seasonable tomorrow in the mid 50s
to low 60s, then fall into the low 50s behind the secondary push of
cold air Friday
A continuation of dry and above normal temps are on tap for the
upcoming weekend into the beginning of next week. Surface high
pressure and an amplified upper level ridge over the central plains
will hold over the area bringing pleasant weather conditions as high
temps remain in the middle to upper 50s. As the ridging and surface
high shift east by next week a weak disturbance has potential to
move across the northern Great Lakes region at the end of the
extended period. This has the potential to bring the next
precipitation chances to the area.
MARINE...
A frontal boundary draped across the region will provide a focus for
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm through tonight.
In the meantime, a weak ridge of surface high pressure will build
into the northern Great Lakes down to around the Straits. This will
cause relatively light northerly to easterly flow to develop
immediately north of the frontal boundary. Northwesterly gradient
flow will increase modestly on Thursday in response to strong
surface high pressure building in to the western Great Lakes. This
may lead to a period of small craft advisory conditions for the
nearshore waters of the southern Lake Huron basin late Thursday.
HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall will continue across areas generally along and
north of M-59 through the late afternoon hours. Additional rain
will then develop along a stalled frontal boundary by early tonight,
with rain continuing through the early morning period before
tapering off. Total rainfall amounts ranging between a half and
three quarters of an inch can be expected areawide through this
time. Dry weather returns Thursday.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...HLO/SS
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....MR
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
854 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.UPDATE...
All is fairly quiet across the CWA at the present time outside of
a few showers. There is some convection just west of the Rio
Grande and the HRRR has been consistently showing additional
convection developing in our western counties after midnight.
Upped PoPs in this region to account for this activity developing
ahead of the main front. Otherwise, just made some minor
adjustments to the hourly grids based on current trends.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/
AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/
Tropical air regime will continue to promote several nocturnal and
late morning hours of mvfr or lower cigs across area TAF sites.
Lighter shower coverage this evening versus Tuesday evening should
lead to cigs dropping into mvfr levels later in the evening or
around 04Z. A deeper convective environment exists near DRT, so
less mvfr cig coverage is expected this evening along the Rio
Grande. Latest HRRR suggests the convective activity south of DRT
will blow up into a complex overnight and impact DRT for much of
the overnight, but the majority of the rapid refresh and mesoscale
runs show minimal activity overnight. With pwat values in the 1.5
to 1.8 inch range and no focusing mechanism, will show several
hours of VCSH, with much of the overnight activity contributing to
a lowering of cigs. Late in the period a pre-frontal wind shift
should help reinforce low clouds and precip chances for much of
Thursday. Ifr conditions may need to be extended into much of the
day should enough precipitation fall.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Isolated showers ongoing mid afternoon and a few thunderstorms
will be possible late this afternoon and evening. Activity should
temporarily diminish late this evening before streamer showers and
patchy drizzle develops early Thursday morning.
The upper level low will remain situated across northern Mexico
and southern AZ through the short-term. At the surface, a cold
front across Northwest Texas will slide south into West and
Central Texas tonight and Thursday. Focus for the more widespread
convection overnight and through the first half of Thursday will
be focused closer to where the moist southeast low and mid level
flow intersects the frontal boundary, just north of the CWA.
Scattered type coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the first half of Thursday across the EWX CWA.
As the front works into the northern CWA late Thursday afternoon
and eventually to near to I-10/U.S. 90 corridor Thursday evening,
better low level confluence develops through the central and
western CWA to where an increase in coverage of showers and storms
is expected. Given the highly anomalous precipitable water values
some storms could produce locally heavy downpours across this
region late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, especially
toward to Rio Grande where better upper level forcing is in
concert with low level confluence.
LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
On Friday, a northwest to southeast oriented pool of higher
moisture will remain situated from the western Hill Country
through the southeast CWA, roughly near and west of I-10. The
better upper level forcing will shift back into far west Texas and
New Mexico as the upper level low moves back north into the desert
southwest. However, a broad zone of weak low level forcing will
continue over the central and western area ahead of a secondary,
backdoor cold front and provide a continued chance for showers and
isolated storms. This front will bring some drier air into the
eastern 2/3rds of the CWA late Friday night into Saturday
according to the GFS and ECMWF.
The moisutre returns back east Sunday as the upper level low
opens and moves through the Southern Plains Sunday into Monday.
This will bring another good chance for showers and thunderstorms
to the region Sunday and Monday. Energy is forecast to dig back to
the southwest in the base of the trough Tuesday into Wednesday,
with another potential low cutting off. There is some
discrepancies to where the low cuts off exactly, but the general
run to run trends between the GFS and ECMWF are west of the
region. This would continue to favor chances for rain into the
middle part of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 70 82 67 81 62 / 30 60 20 30 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 81 67 80 61 / 30 60 30 30 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 83 67 81 62 / 30 60 40 40 20
Burnet Muni Airport 69 79 64 77 60 / 30 50 20 30 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 71 81 68 78 64 / 50 50 60 50 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 70 80 65 78 60 / 30 60 20 20 10
Hondo Muni Airport 75 83 68 82 63 / 40 60 40 40 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 81 67 81 62 / 30 60 30 30 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 83 68 82 62 / 30 60 30 20 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 74 81 69 80 64 / 30 60 40 40 20
Stinson Muni Airport 75 83 69 82 65 / 30 60 40 40 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
421 PM PDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.UPDATE...Updated for air quality issues.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist through at least the weekend, so dry
conditions are expected. Patchy dense fog will develop across the
San Joaquin Valley each night and morning until Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Sunny skies prevailing across our area this
afternoon as a dry upper ridge pushed into Central CA overnight.
The departing upper trough which brought some light precipitation
to parts of our area on Tuesday pushed east overnight, but
interaction with the strengthening ridge produced increased near
surface winds over the southern portion of our cwfa overnight
which inhibited fog formation south of Fresno County. Dense fog
was limited this morning to a thin strip along the SR 99 corridor
between Madera and Atwater. This fog all dissipated by 11 am PDT
this morning, and we allowed the Dense Fog Advisory which had
been in effect for the Central San Joaquin Valley to expire at
that time.
Today`s HRRR has not been as aggressive with fog formation in the
valley tonight as was for this morning during yday/s runs. One
possible culprit is that circulation around an upper low which cut
off from the departed trough over southern AZ continues to
interact with the ridge and produce enough of an increase in near
surface winds to produce some mixing in the lower atmosphere. The
low is progged by the 12Z WRF to remain over southern AZ near the
Sonora border through Friday morning then lift northeast toward
the four corners area by Saturday. The upper ridge is expected to
strengthen over central CA on Thursday and Friday resulting in a
warming trend across our area with daytime highs in the valley on
Friday expected to be 4-7 deg F above normal. RH progs are
indicating that any tropcial moisture being pulled up by the low
to our southeast will remain well to the east of our area and not
having any impact for our area. An approaching upper trough will
begin to break down the ridge on Saturday and turn the upper flow
onshore, but daytime temepratures will remain above normal on
Saturday. Only concern for the next three days will be the impact
of late night and early morning fog in the San Joaquin Valley on
temepratures and travel. The strengthening ridge will make Friday
more favorable for morning fog in the valley than Thursday, but
the potential for widespread dense fog is low.
Medium range models and their ensemble means are in good
agreement with the next trough splitting as it approaches CA and
pushes most of the energy with it through the PAC NW and far
northern CA on Saturday Night with RH progs indicating the deeper
moisture now remaining well to the north of our area. We have
therefore removed any mention for precipitation chances for our
area for this weekend. Some high clouds, increased winds and
cooler daytime temperatures are likely though. Another upper ridge
is progged to build into CA for the early portion of next week
with mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures prevail
while late night and morning fog return to the San Joaquin Valley.
Another trough is progged to push through the PAC NW and far
northern CA on Tuesday Night and Wednesday but moisture and
dynamics sufficient for precipitation are again expected to remain
to the north of our area.
&&
.AVIATION...In the San Joaquin Valley, areas MVFR visibilities
due to haze for next 24 hours. However, ifr with isolated patches of
lifr in fog developing 12z-18z Thu. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail in the central CA interior during the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Thursday November 3 2016... Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Tulare County. Further
information is available at Valleyair.org
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
public...DS
avn/fw...BSO
synopsis...BSO
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
911 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Updated for the evening forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather will continue overnight with lows in the low to mid
60s. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight mainly for southern
zones. No changes were needed to the current forecast. /12/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of
the evening into the overnight hours. Patchy fog will again be
possible, especially around KHBG, which could reduce vis and possibly
ceilings to MVFR categories. VFR conditions should resume after
daybreak with light winds increasing to around 5-10kts generally out
of the southwest. /28/
&&
.DISCUSSION... /issued 423 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...No big changes to the short
term forecast. The cold front remains well northwest of the area but
a boundary/maybe pre-frontal trough was located along the river.
With a good layer of dry air across the region, was not sure much of
the rain was reaching the ground. Guidance maintained some low pops,
generally 20-30 percent for a small section of the northwest, opted
to leave the rain in for those areas through the afternoon. The HRRR
seemed to have a good handle on it with the rain tapering off through
the afternoon and things were dissipating.
For tonight, kept the area in the lower 60s. Looks like very light
southerly winds and clouds should keep the area in the 60s
overnight. The boundary starts to move southeastward around the late
afternoon, so thinking highs in the lower to mid 80s was still
good./7/
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday...At the beginning of the period,
mid/upper level northwest flow will be in place over the region with
a surface cold front poised to the immediate north. While surface
convergence should be sufficient in producing lift along the frontal
boundary as it drops south, very limited moisture will only allow
for a few showers over mainly the northern portions. As the boundary
drops south into central and southern sections, only cloud cover
should be seen.
The airmass moving in behind the front will be very dry as mixed
dewpoints each afternoon drop into the 30s and 40s. This will
translate into minimum relative humidities at or below 30 percent
for the weekend. While the wind staying less than 10 knots should not
pose a problem, the dryness of the air and fuels should enough to
provide an increasing fire danger.
Mid level ridge axis will shift east Monday allowing southwest flow
to begin increasing moisture aloft. Light easterly surface winds
will maintain the dry air in the lower levels through Monday, but
increasing isentropic ascent over the top of the dry airmass will
erode enough of the dry air for some light rain possibilities over
the southwest sections Tuesday./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 63 83 59 79 / 3 8 12 2
Meridian 59 83 57 79 / 3 12 10 1
Vicksburg 62 85 61 79 / 3 9 13 4
Hattiesburg 60 85 60 82 / 7 6 7 4
Natchez 63 84 63 78 / 3 3 12 4
Greenville 64 83 58 76 / 3 20 18 1
Greenwood 63 84 57 77 / 3 5 16 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
12/28/7/26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.UPDATE...
The November 3, 2016 00 UTC TAF discussion follows...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Generally expect mostly VFR conditions to continue through the
TAF period. Scattered showers/storms across southwest
Oklahoma/western north Texas will continue to expand
and develop northeastward through the evening. Brief MVFR to IFR
conditions will be possible with any thunderstorms. Gusty and
chaotic winds will also be possible. A cold front/northerly wind
shift will progress from northwest to southeast this evening.
MVFR ceilings may develop later tonight behind the front; however,
confidence is too low to include in TAFs except at KPNC--where
confidence is greatest. Expect northerly winds to continue through
the TAF period.
Mahale
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is focused on increasing precipitation
chances late this afternoon into the overnight hours.
Currently, it`s fairly uncomfortable for early November, 02/20z
surface observations reveal dew points well into the mid to upper
60s along with temperatures in the low 80s ahead of the surface
boundary that continues to slowly push eastward off the panhandles.
In response, ML CAPE values across the region are near 2000 to 2500
J/Kg. Earlier, around 19z, a few radar returns cropped up in far
southern Oklahoma, most likely driven by some pre-frontal isentropic
ascent around 305 to 310 K. Will likely see similar isolated
activity through the afternoon ahead of the front. Deep layer shear
across the region is relatively weak to modest, about 20 to 25 kts,
this is in part to weak 700mb flow aloft. However, HRRR soundings
from KFDR and KCDS reveal MLCAPE values approaching 3000 J/Kg
through 03/00z, along with steepening mid-level lapse rates of 6.5
to 7.5 C/Km. This is more than enough to result in rapid updraft
growth along the frontal boundary through this evening. In response,
scattered to isolated strong to severe storms are possible, capable
of severe hail, up to half dollars, and 60 to 70 mph wind gusts. Of
additional concern, into the evening and overnight, will be locally
heavy rainfall. 02/12z sounding from KOUN came back with 1.35 inches
of precipitable water this morning, which is well above the 90th
percentile for climatology.
Through 02/20z, a few updrafts have finally gone west of Childress
just off the Llano Estacado. The last few runs of the HRRR and the
NMM HiRes WRF have done fairly well with the initiation in West
Texas this afternoon. Expect this activity to gradually grow
upstream along the surface boundary eastward through the late
afternoon to early evening hours. Into the evening, some additional
isolated storms may go up along the frontal boundary late this
evening and overnight as it pushes eastward, into central Oklahoma,
from southwestern Oklahoma to the OKC metro and as far north as
Ponca City.
With respect to rainfall, the heaviest rainfall will develop across
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Amounts will range from a
half inch in south central Oklahoma to just over an inch in far
western north Texas. 7 day rainfall amounts are basically zero
across this area, with a few locations receiving under a trace to a
10th over that time period. Therefore, widespread flooding issues
are not anticipated, but locally heavy rainfall in the right
locations, could result in brief flooding of usual suspect areas.
For tomorrow into the weekend, expect relatively dry conditions
through Friday as brief ridging over the southern half of the plains
keeps the approaching western 500mb low parked over the desert
southwest. Into the weekend, rain chances return, primarily late on
Saturday into Sunday, with lingering chances through Tuesday as a
slow evolving 500mb trough lumbers eastward across the central U.S.
Temperatures during this period will be cooler, but still a few
degrees above normal for the time of year, with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s each day.
Kurtz
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 59 71 51 72 / 60 10 0 0
Hobart OK 59 71 52 70 / 50 10 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 63 71 56 70 / 60 30 10 10
Gage OK 50 72 42 73 / 20 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 58 71 46 73 / 40 10 0 0
Durant OK 66 78 59 76 / 60 20 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
11/10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
851 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
So far this evening, convection has struggled to make its way into
eastern Oklahoma, diminishing rapidly when getting within a county
of the western border of the forecast area. This should change to
some degree toward and continuing after midnight as upper level
support becomes more favorable with the movement of the upper
level jet. Coverage should be greatest across northeast Oklahoma
within the instability maximum. The overall severe weather threat
appears to be waning. The main change to the going forecast has
been to increase POPs some after 06Z in response to the later
expected timing, as well as the potential that some of the ongoing
activity in southwest and south central Oklahoma could move into
parts of southeast Oklahoma as well. Updated products already out.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 622 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across mainly northeast OK over the next few hours ahead of
approaching cold front. Precipitation will gradually shift
southeast overnight as cold front moves through but likely will
decrease in coverage. Expect low ceilings to develop behind front
in many areas by Thursday morning with a period of IFR conditions
likely with a transition to MVFR later in the afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows upper low across the southwest
in the process of becoming a cutoff low...while in the northern
stream...a shortwave trough was moving across the eastern Dakotas.
Two main areas of thunderstorms are evident...one from Kansas City
through northern MO and another developing in the TX panhandle.
Surface cold front has moved little so far today...extending from
between HUT/ICT southwest through NW portions of OK. Surface
dewpoints are at or near record levels for this time of year and
this allowed this morning`s low to range in the 60s to lower 70s.
Big question tonight focuses on precipitation chances. Short term
guidance continues to show cold front arriving into NE OK early
this evening accompanied by a scattered to broken line of
showers/tstms. Both the operational and experimental HRRR do not
show much precip developing at all. However there should be enough
lift to support at least some rain across portions of the area
this evening. Will maintain pops as they are for now.
The front takes its time moving through the area...and clouds may
be slow to clear the area for Thursday. There may even be patchy
drizzle early Thu morning given abundant low level
moisture/upglide. Once clouds clear Thu afternoon into
evening...clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s
by Friday morning. Extended forecast looks great...with seasonal
high temps in the 70s and cool mornings...the way it`s supposed to
be in November.
CORFIDI
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
547 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will weaken ahead of an approaching
cold front today. The cold front will move through the area late
tonight. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Nocturnal cooling with light wind supports fog early this morning.
The HRRR displays fog mainly in the east part of the forecast
area. A little mixing associated with a low-level jet and very
shallow moisture may continue to limit the fog in the west
section. Forecasted the more widespread fog in the east part. A
dense fog advisory may be needed. Heating and mixing should
dissipate any fog around 900 am. It will be a warm day ahead of
the approaching cold front. Followed the temperature guidance with
highs in the middle 80s. These readings will be close to records
for the date. The record high at Columbia Metro for today`s date is
88 set in 1974. The record at Augusta Bush for the date is 86 also
set in 1974. The models are consistent keeping moisture shallow
through today and it should remain dry. The NAM and GFS MOS pops
are less than 10 percent. The NAM bufkit momentum transfer tool
supports wind gusts 15 to 20 mph today.
The cold front is forecast to move through the area during the 06z
to 12z time frame tonight. Moisture should remain limited with
h85 westerly flow ahead of the cold front. Continued the forecast
of just a small chance of showers mainly in the north section. A
little more moisture and lift associated with the upper trough
supports the higher pop in the north. The NAM and GFS depict light
rainfall amounts of less than one-tenth of an inch. Mixing
associated the front should help hold up temperatures tonight. The
temperature guidance was close with lows around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering moisture associated with the front supports a small
shower chance early in the east section. Otherwise, it should be
dry behind the cold front. The NAM bufkit momentum transfer tool
supports wind gusts 15 to 20 mph Friday. Diminished wind will
occur Friday night with the loss of heating and mixing. Followed
the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF displayed ridging dominating through the
medium-range period. The GFS and ECMWF MOS were in agreement with
pops less than 15 percent through Wednesday. The models were close
with a seasonably cool air mass early with a slight warming trend
by the middle of next week. The MOS indicated lows in the middle
30s to lower 40s Saturday night and Sunday night. Frost may occur
in the normally colder locations.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect patchy MVFR or IFR vsbys in fog until around 14Z this
morning. Otherwise expect VFR conditions for much of the rest of
today.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered showers and associated
restrictions are possible late Thursday night into early Friday
morning as a cold front crosses the region.
&&
.CLIMATE...
It will be warm ahead of the approaching cold front today.
Forecast temperatures are expected to top out in the lower and
middle 80s. This will be approaching records for the
date especially at Augusta. Here area the records for both
Augusta and Columbia.
Augusta...
November 3rd...86 degrees in 1974
Columbia...
November 3rd...88 degrees in 1974
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
337 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southeast through the region today, providing
occasional chances of showers, and bringing an end to the record
warmth that had been in place over the Ohio Valley. Much cooler and
drier air will move in behind the front, as high pressure gradually
moves into the area from the upper midwest. Dry conditions are
expected through the weekend, with temperatures near normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface analysis suggests that the incoming cold front is now
located from Monroe MI to Peoria IL. Initially moving slowly, this
front is expected to speed up its forward motion over the next
several hours, in response to the southeastward motion of a 500mb
wave coming from well upstream of the Ohio Valley. Overall model
timing in the passage of this front remains quite strong, but
there is a strikingly diverse array of solutions regarding
precipitation coverage over the next 18 hours. Standard models
(NAM/GFS/ECMWF) continue to forecast a band of deep moisture and
solid QPF production -- forecasts that have thus far largely
failed to verify, and do not reflect the reality of the radar
picture at 07Z this morning. Recent HRRR / HRRRx runs have been a
little more helpful at least at depicting the near-term situation,
but remain persistent in developing scattered to numerous showers
in the ILN CWA over the next few hours. Unable to ignore the lack
of echoes on the radar, and with no significant push for forcing
arriving quite yet -- as boundary layer convergence is far from
impressive -- PoPs will remain in the chance range through the
morning. Once the front gets moving late this morning and into the
afternoon, precipitation chances may increase a little further for
the southern half of the forecast area -- particularly the far
southeast, including Maysville and Portsmouth. In fact, with model
soundings at KPMH indicating a small amount of instability, it is
at least within the range of solutions for a few weak
thunderstorms to develop in these locations.
Temperatures today required a bit of a non-diurnal trace, which
has been included in the grids. The far southeast will behave
generally diurnally, but temperatures are unlikely to rise much in
the far north, as the front will be coming through (and switching
the pattern to northerly cold advection) during the morning hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Drying conditions are expected behind the cold front, but model
soundings suggest some stratocumulus may persist for a while in
the cold advection, with the possibility of some additional
mid-level clouds associated with the stronger shortwave moving
through the Great Lakes. All of these clouds are likely to clear
out during the overnight hours, leading to clearing skies by
Friday morning. With the push of cold air not appearing quite as
strong as initially expected in the past day or two, min temps on
Friday morning should remain in the 40s, limiting the potential
for frost.
The Fri-Sat-Sun period is setting up for a very quiet weather
pattern, By Friday morning, the center of a surface high will be
located in northern Illinois. This high is forecast to very slowly
move ESE over the next several days, remaining largely centered
over the Ohio Valley through Monday morning. Winds should remain
light through this period, with northwesterly flow aloft initially
providing some additional cold advection, before becoming more
neutral on Saturday and Sunday. A lack of low/mid level moisture
will provide for a reasonable amount of insolation through all
three days, and allowing for a gradual warming trend during the
period. The coldest night appears likely to be Friday night,
especially in the eastern / southeastern sections of the ILN CWA,
where radiational cooling conditions will be near-ideal. Thus, it
appears that some frost will be possible, and this will be
included in the HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad and anomalously strong upper ridge will be in place
across the CONUS Friday. The pattern will be very slow to change,
with the ridge axis moving gradually to the east coast by Tuesday.
An extensive area of surface high pressure will be positioned on the
eastern flank of the upper ridge. The surface high will cover the
eastern CONUS through Monday, providing mostly sunny and dry
conditions for the ILN area. For Tuesday, models indicate the upper
ridge breaking down in response to an upper trough entering the
Great Lakes, while the surface high is pushed to the southeast. A
few showers may develop ahead of a weak cold front reaching northern
Ohio. High pressure will build at the surface behind the front.
daytime high temperatures are expected to drop to near normal levels
for early November while overnight lows remain slightly above normal.
Above normal highs in the 60s are forecast for Saturday through
Tuesday as warm advection and insolation influence the airmass.
After Tuesday, daytime high temperatures are expected to drop to
near normal levels for early November while overnight lows remain
slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will move southeast through the region today. Models
have backed off on the amount of forcing with this system, so
showers may end up being more scattered along and ahead of the
front. We should still see MVFR ceilings develop near and just
behind frontal passage, with perhaps some pockets of MVFR
visibilities in locally moderate showers. RH fields suggest that
ceilings should eventually lift up into the 3500-4000 range 2 to 3
hours behind frontal passage.
By late this afternoon into early evening, clouds should scatter
with a mix of stratocumulus and cirrus. RH fields indicate that
post frontal stratocumulus may increase across the region,
especially east, during the 06Z to 12Z time frame. These clouds
could bring MVFR ceilings to the eastern terminals by then. Will
look at this potential in more detail with the next TAF issuance.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Hickman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
326 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows slow-moving cold front along the I-72
corridor...with main area of showers/thunder well to the south
across southern Missouri into southern Illinois. Front will
continue to sag southward, eventually exiting the KILX CWA by
midday. Based on model consensus and latest radar imagery, will
carry chance PoPs for showers along/south of I-70 through the
morning...then will go dry across the board this afternoon. The
other short-term weather issue will be early morning fog across the
north. Current obs show visbys between 1 and 3 miles along and
north of a Jacksonville to Bloomington line where quite a bit of
rain occurred last evening and winds have gone nearly calm behind
the front. HRRR suggests the fog will become more widespread over
the next few hours...potentially developing as far south as I-72.
Will therefore mention fog across the northern half of the
CWA...with areas of fog along/north of a Canton to Bloomington line.
Early morning fog/low clouds will dissipate toward midday, with
mostly sunny skies prevailing this afternoon. Due to northerly
winds behind the front, high temperatures will remain in the 60s
today...then will drop into the lower to middle 40s tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Quiet weather will prevail through the entire extended, with the
recent stretch of above normal temperatures continuing through next
week. The coolest day of the forecast period will be Friday, when
deep-layer northerly flow keeps temps in the lower to middle 60s.
After that, upper ridging will build back into the region, allowing
temperatures to climb back into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees
over the upcoming weekend. Models show the next weak short-wave and
accompanying frontal boundary swinging through the region late
Monday into Tuesday: however, with very little moisture to work
with, rain chances will be nil. Once this feature passes, upper
ridging will again take hold, leading to more warm/dry weather
through the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Cold front currently to the north of the TAF sites will slide
south across central Illinois over the next 3 to 6 hours bringing
deteriorating cigs and vsbys. Forecast soundings suggest a
gradual improving trend from northwest to southeast after 15z
Thursday. Until then, areas of fog and low clouds will develop
across the entire area after 06z resulting in MVFR and IFR
conditions into Thursday morning. Based on current sounding
data, a return to VFR conditions is expected initially over
PIA and BMI by late morning, and over the remainder of the
sites by afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
448 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 448 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2016
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a ridge over the Rockies
and a trof extending from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes. Shortwave
within the trof is approaching the Upper Lakes and has supported
increasing coverage of -shra across the area over the last few hrs,
especially the northern half of Upper MI. Cold front associated
with the wave extends from se Lake Superior to near KIWD.
00z model runs, high res guidance in particular, and short term
updating models, RAP and HRRR, have all captured ongoing pcpn quite
well early this morning and form a good basis for construction of
pops for today. With deep layer forcing for upward motion associated
with shortwave exiting the area by aftn, shra will mostly end by
aftn, though upslope low-level cyclonic flow should allow a few
-shra to persist into early to possibly mid aftn. Trended sky
condition a little more pessimistic today as low-level cyclonic
flow, 850mb thermal trof and upslope flow off Lake Superior will
likely lead to more stubborn stratocu. Clearing should begin over
the Keweenaw first during the latter part of the aftn. Clear to
partly cloudy skies should then be the rule by mid evening. There
are some hints that clouds cloud linger well into the evening over
parts of the area. That will need to be reassesed as the day
progresses. As for temps, expect highs ranging from the mid 40s
across the higher terrain of the nw and n central to the mid 50s far
s central. Assuming clouds depart as expected, dry column and
light/calm winds thru at least the evening hrs should allow for a
quick temp drop tonight. Leaned fcst toward the bias corrected CMC
guidance as it normally performs best in radiational cooling
situations. Expect mid/upper 20s in the interior. Temps may begin to
rise some late tonight across the w as return flow strengthens.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2016
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the plains 12z Fri
with a closed 500 mb low over the desert sw and troughs on both
coasts. The ridge slowly moves into the upper Great Lakes by Sun
morning. Will be warm, dry and quiet for this forecast period. Did
not make many changes to the going forecast.
In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the southern
and central Rockies 12z Sun with a ridge across the sern U.S. into
the upper Great Lakes. This trough moves into the plains 12z Mon
with the ridge over the lower Great Lakes then. The trough moves
through the upper Great Lakes on Tue. More ridging then builds into
the area for Wed. Temperatures will continue to be above normal
and will remain dry through most of this period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 138 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2016
VFR conditions at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW will give way to MVFR and possibly
IFR conditions late in the night/early this morning as a trough/cold
front moves through the area and upslope northerly flow develops.
Some -shra are also expected in association with the trough, but
because pcpn will be light, vis will not fall out of VFR. Conditions
will gradually improve to VFR later in the afternoon as high pressure
and drier air builds in from northern Ontario.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 448 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2016
Although it`s Nov, conditions across Lake Superior will be
relatively quiet with no gales expected thru at least early next
week. Strongest winds, 20-25kt, will occur Fri and Mon.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
443 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Lows pressure passes to the north this morning. A cold front
moves through this afternoon. High pressure builds behind the
front tonight and Friday. A weak cold front approaches the area
on Saturday and moves through Saturday night. High pressure then
builds through Tuesday. A cold front approaches for the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Patchy early morning fog will burn off. Attention then turns to low
pressure and associated cold front late this morning and through the
afternoon.
Analysis of 00Z NWP guidance along with latest HRRR runs indicate
general model agreement. Mid and upper level shortwave moves
through, and sfc low tracks just north of the area across NY State
and New England.
The cold front moves through NW zones late morning, and eastern
zones late afternoon.
Weak instability does build ahead of the front as boundary layer
warms, on the order of a couple hundred J/KG of SBCAPE. However,
coverage of showers remains rather low, with a low QPF event
overall. Showers move across NW zones, likely becoming a broken
line as they traverse to the east. Will maintain highest POPs in
the likely range NW zones, with chance elsewhere for scattered
activity.
Isolated thunder possible as mentioned with weak instability and
some support aloft.
Temperatures will be quite warm today as the area remains in the
warm sector much of the day. West/SW flow ushers in upper 60s to
70s across the region. Mos blend followed but leaned toward higher
numbers. Feel readings remain below records. However more sunshine
would yield higher readings, above forecast and closer to a few
records.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Main trough axis moves through tonight. Surface front well east of
the area as high pressure builds to the west. CAA and a tight
pressure gradient between the departing low/front and the high will
result in NW winds, with occasional gusts at night.
Any showers track east this evening, with dry conditions anticipated
for the area overnight and through the day Friday.
Cooler and drier air sweeps in on NW flow, with lows tonight
ranging from the mid 40s, to around 50 in NYC.
Friday`s high temperatures will be much cooler, although still a few
degrees above normal. Expect temps from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Gusty NW winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tranquil conditions expected in the long term, with continued good
agreement among the operational models. High pressure at the surface
builds in Saturday with an upper level trough off the East Coast. A
weak cold front approaches on Saturday, moving through the region
Saturday night. The front is moisture starved and is currently
forecast to move through dry. However, the 00Z NAM and 00Z ECMWF do
show very light QPF across the area from 06Z-12Z Sunday, so a stray
shower is possible, but not confident enough to go with slight
chance.
High pressure then builds in behind the cold front Sunday and slowly
moves over the area through Tuesday as low pressure meanders over
the western Atlantic during this time period. Aloft, the area will
be on the western side of a trough. Prolonged deep northwesterly
flow will mean near normal temperatures for Sunday and slightly
below normal for Monday.
The center of high pressure moves over the area on Monday, then gets
suppressed to the south. A southwesterly flow will develop on
Tuesday, allowing for temperatures to warm to slightly above normal,
which should continue into the middle of the week. A cold front then
approaches for the middle of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure centered across the eastern Great Lakes tracks east and
off the New England coast by late this afternoon with an associated
cold front moving through the terminals.
VFR. Scattered areas of MVFR visibilities in fog with local
outlying terminals IFR in fog through 12Z.
With showers preceding the cold front VFR conditions are expected
to remain. There is a slight chance of embedded thunderstorms at the
NYC terminals and across Long Island, and there may briefly be
MVFR conditions in any heavier showers.
Winds will be from the SW less than 10 KTS to near clam until after
13Z, then winds increase and may become more westerly, 260 to 230
true. There will be occasional gusts up to 20 KTS in the SW flow.
Winds will shift to the NW to N with the cold front passage with
gusts approaching 25 kt into Thursday evening.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: The chance of thunder is less likely, with the
best chance 17Z to 19Z.
KLGA TAF Comments: The chance of thunder is less likely, with
the best chance 17Z to 19Z.
KEWR TAF Comments: The chance of thunder is less likely, with
the best chance 16Z to 18Z.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: There is a chance of IFR ceilings and
visibilities in fog 10Z to 12Z. Ceilings under 500 FT are possible.
The chance of thunder is less likely, with the best chance 17Z to
19Z.
KHPN TAF Comments: There is a chance of IFR ceilings and
visibilities in fog 10Z to 12Z. There is a low chance of ceilings
under 500 FT. The chance of thunder is less likely, with the best
chance 16Z to 18Z.
KISP TAF Comments: There is a chance of IFR ceilings and
visibilities in fog 10Z to 12Z. Ceilings under 500 FT are possible.
The chance of thunder is less likely, with the best chance 18Z to
20Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday night-Friday...VFR. NW winds G20-25 kt.
.Saturday-Monday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Light southwest flow steadily increases today as low
pressure tracks across New England. Generally expect conditions to
remain below small craft advisory levels, except perhaps eastern
ocean waters late.
A cold front moves through late in the day, and gusty NW winds will
develop and prevail tonight through Friday. A small craft advisory
will remain in effect for this time frame.
Followed a blend of wave/sea forecast guidance, leaning toward wave
watch III output.
Winds and waves should generally remain below SCA criteria
throughout the long term. There may be brief periods of 25 kt gusts
on the ocean waters late Saturday night into Sunday morning as a
cold front moves through the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant precipitation expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday
for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/PW
HYDROLOGY...JP/PW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
930 PM MST Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures have finally returned to near normal as a trough of low
pressure deepens over the Southwestern U.S. This trough will bring a
slight chance for showers starting tonight over eastern Arizona with
chances increasing and spreading across most of Arizona on Thursday.
A drying and warming trend is in store for this weekend into early
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A transition to a more unsettled period is already underway this
evening, as an upper low that dropped southward to a position over
the northern Gulf of California begins to wrap moisture northward
into the region. The latest 88D radar imagery is now showing
showers, with an embedded thunderstorm or two, beginning to back
northwestward from SE and extreme eastern AZ into southern Gila
county and NW Pinal County. At this point, due to a still-dry
subcloud layer, it appears that, for the most part, little more than
a sprinkle or light shower is reaching the ground at most locations.
However, the latest high-res HRRR model run is showing a gradual
increase in shower activity through the rest of tonight and into
early Thursday as the atmosphere continues to moisten. It now looks
a pretty good bet that most areas over the higher terrain east of
Phoenix will see measurable rain over the next 24 hours. Over the
lower elevations of South-Central AZ, it looks like the best chance
for measurable rain will be during the day on Thursday, especially
during the afternoon/early evening hours, when the deepest moisture
moves into the region, as PWATS rise into the 0.75-0.95 inch range.
As far as thunderstorms are concerned, although some isolated storms
can be expected on Thursday, chances for strong/severe storms appear
to be low, due to warming at/above 400mb (as shown on the latest GFS
forecast soundings), which allows a cap to develop at these levels,
limiting the vertical extent of any convection that does develop.
Still, we cannot rule out the possibility of a wind gust up into the
30-40 mph range and some small hail from the strongest storms. For
the very short term, other than some adjustments to the hourly
grids, inherited forecasts look good for now.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The center of the closed upper-level low is currently situated near
the southwest Arizona/Mexico border. On the eastern and northern side
of the center, southerly to easterly flow has developed, allowing
moisture to begin to be transported north and west into our region.
The main moisture surge is forecast tonight, increasing the PWATS
into the .75" to 1" range for much of Arizona. Eventually this closed
low will shift northeastward on Friday as a weak Pacific trough
approaches the California coast, bringing drier conditions to the
region.
Currently, a deep layer moisture flux convergence zone exists in
southeast Arizona, and this along with some instability (MLCAPE
values between 100 and 500 J/kg) has allowed isolated showers to
develop in this region. Conditions over our CWA will remain dry for
the remainder of the day, until deep layer moisture and forcing
combine with the influence of the higher terrain of southern Gila
county. There is really good agreement between hi-res models
indicating a start of activity over southern Gila county near 00Z
tonight, with gradual increase in coverage and spread to the west
throughout the day tomorrow. However, the greatest moisture and
precipitation chances will remain in northern and eastern Arizona,
with NAEFS PWAT percentiles above the 90th percentile in these areas.
Since the previous forecast still looks to be on track, minor
adjustments to the precipitation forecast were made during this
period. Primarily just slightly increased precipitation chances out
east and shifted rain chances slightly westward. Over the higher
terrain, PoPs increase from an initial 20-50% chances over eastern
Arizona tonight to 50-80% on Thursday. Over the south-central Arizona
deserts POPs will gradually increase from less than 10% late tonight
to 20-40% by late tomorrow morning.
There is a minimal threat of thunderstorms mainly on Thursday, but
overall low CAPE values point toward mostly isolated weak
thunderstorms from Phoenix eastward. A few stronger storms will be
possible though since MLCAPE values will generally range from 100 to
500 J/kg, temperatures at 500 mb will be near -16C (and for parts of
this period these values are below the 10th percentile), and mid-
level lapse rates will be near 7 C/km. Thus, stronger storms will
have the potential to produce small hail and gusty winds up to 30 to
40 mph. Peak time period for shower and thunderstorm potential looks
to be from noon Thursday to midnight Friday.
Drier air from the southwest will start to get pulled around the
upper low into southern Arizona Thursday night likely limiting shower
chances across much of the lower deserts after midnight. Lingering
chances of mostly showers are expected on Friday across the higher
terrain, but chances will quickly diminish by Friday evening as the
low center lifts toward the Four Corners area. Overall rainfall
amounts should be fairly light over the deserts, likely less than a
tenth of an inch, but higher terrain locations of eastern Arizona may
see a half an inch or more.
Models are struggling some with what happens this weekend into next
week, but the overall theme points toward a building ridge over the
Southwestern U.S. early next week. Some GFS ensemble members show
another potential retrograding upper low into Desert Southwest, but
the vast majority of model guidance builds a rather strong upper
level ridge into the region. For now we will keep with the building
ridge solution which will lead to some gradual warming and drying
this weekend. Highs this weekend should be 3-5 degrees above normals
with mostly middle 80s across the lower deserts. Depending on how
this potential ridge evolves early next week, we could again see
highs top 90 degrees which is near or above records for the second
week of November.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Latest radar loops and high-res model guidance is now showing
showers to the east of the PHX area terminals moving into the region
late tonight/early Thursday, with more robust shower activity, and
even an isolated thunderstorm moving in thu afternoon/evening.
Initially, dry air near the sfc will likely limit rainfall to just
a few sprinkles/light showers tonight/early thu, but with better
chances for wetting rainfall on tap during the day on thu. There is
a remote chance of a thunderstorm, with wind gusts as high as 30 kts
thu afternoon, but confidence is still too low to put anything more
than VCTS in the tafs at this time. Cigs as low as 6k feet are
possible in the heavier showers/storms. After switching to a
easterly direction late tonight, winds are expected to remain out of
a easterly direction through the rest of the taf period.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Sfc high pressure building southward into the region from the Great
Basin will keep sfc winds out of a northerly direction at KBLH and
from a northwesterly to northerly direction at KIPL through the taf
period, with some gustiness possible at KBLH at times. Drier air
moving into the region to keep skies mainly clear, outside of a few
high cirrus clouds passing over from time-to-time.
Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday...An upper level low pressure system will
linger across Arizona Friday keeping a chance of showers with
isolated thunderstorms going mainly east of Phoenix with drier
conditions present over the western deserts. The low will lift to
the northeast Friday night into Saturday allowing drier air to move
into the higher terrain east of Phoenix. Temperatures Friday will
stay near or slightly above seasonal normals, with gradual warming
to take place over the weekend and into early next week. By next
Tuesday, the greater Phoenix area may see highs approaching 90
degrees again. Humidities will be very elevated Friday ranging from
20 to 30 percent over the deserts and up to 50 percent in the higher
terrain east of Phoenix. Subtle drying will then take place during
the rest of the time period but for the most part humidity will be
elevated remaining above 15 percent over the warmer lower deserts
into early next week. Winds each day will be on the light side
favoring typical diurnal patterns with a few afternoon breezes
favoring either upslope or westerly directions.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed this week.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Percha
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hernandez/Kuhlman
AVIATION...Percha
FIRE WEATHER...Nolte/CB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
432 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, both at the surface and aloft over the region this
morning, will give way to a strong cold front and upper trough
moving southeast from the Great Lakes. Canadian high pressure will
build over the region Friday and remain in place through the first
half of next week at which time a weak cold front will move into
the region from the northwest.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...
Finally an end to the late fall seemingly eternal warmth of recent
weeks as a northern stream positive tilted upper trough moves from
the Great Lakes toward the northern Mid-Atlantic through Friday.
This will push a strong cold front through the region overnight
and finally bringing an end to the unseasonably warm temperatures.
Main points to consider during this period are chances for rain,
chances for thunder, potential for gusty winds behind the front,
and max/min temperatures during the period.
Most models agree that precipitation will drift into the western
areas during the late afternoon, then attempt to move into the
Piedmont during the evening. Conditions for much precipitation are
not favorable despite this being a strong front. Antecedent air
mass is dry and stable and recovery will be limited. PWATS are
progged to remain mostly below 1 inch, although the GFS is
somewhat more agressive in 1.0 to 1.5 inch PWATS across the
Piedmont. More importantly, the main dynamics remain well to the
north of the region across PA and points north to northeast. HRRR
CAPES are 400 J/kg at best, while average Brooks/Craven values
among GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/NAM are in the 1500-2500 range, barely
suggestive of thunder. The best Theta-E ridging remains back
across the TN Valley into the Mid- South. Consequently, am not
excited about the chances for thunder. The most likely area to see
any thunder would be just west of the Alleghany Front during the
afternoon and in far southwest VA into eastern TN during the
evening. Have included isold thunder in these areas only. QPF is
unimpressive for many of the same reasons stated above and
confidence in even this is very low. Rainfall amounts are
expected to be 1/4 inch or less, with the greatest amounts in far
southwest VA and across eastern WV. Piedmont areas may not see
much more than a sprinkle or light rain shower overnight. Upslope
precipitation is expected to be quite limited given a quick
transition to northern flow along the Alleghany Front behind the
front.
Given that the front will not arrive until evening west and
overnight east, it will be another unseasonably warm day. However,
cloud cover will inhibit the amount of warming observed yesterday,
especially in the west. Piedmont areas will likely still see some
low 80s as there may still be a fair amount of insolation in those
regions. Moreover, there is little change in the 850 mb temps
today, so no support for cooling there. Max temps will again be
close to records this afternoon for ROA and LYH, but they may fall
just shy of such.
Min temps Friday are expected to remain above normal, but not as
mild as what we are seeing this morning. Fairly strong CAA will
allow 850mb temps to drop from +12C to +15C this afternoon to
around +4C to +8C by 12Z Friday. This will yield lows in the 40s
west to 50s east in the morning.
The final consideration this period will be wind. Gusty WSW-W
winds are expected today, mainly west of the Blue Ridge. Gusty
northwest winds are expected behind the cold front given good
cold advection and pressure rises. Winds are not expected to meet
advisory criteria, however.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...
An upper level trough will swing east of the area Friday morning,
pushing a cold front out into the western Atlantic. With the front
offshore, cooler air will filter into the region Friday and
Saturday. This frontal passage will knock temperatures back down to
normal levels with highs across the mountains in the upper 50s to
lower 60s and mid to upper 60s east. Heights increase Sunday along
with increasing southerly flow to allow temperatures to moderate
above normal across the forecast area.
A modest pressure gradient will reside over the mountains Friday.
This pressure gradient along with pressure rises and cold air
advection will bring breezy and gusty conditions to the area. The
best pressure rises will occur in the morning with gusts up to 30
mph, then subside going into the afternoon and overnight hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Wednesday...
Continued dry most of the period with upper ridge situated over the
Central U.S. early on. Temperatures should not be as warm but still
slightly above normal for early November. Stronger shortwave
advertised by models should dive across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-
Atlantic by Tuesday-Wednesday allowing for a front to cross. A few
showers will occur with the front, with somewhat cooler highs for
Wednesday. Overall pattern beyond the middle of next week paints a
drier than normal picture with continued northwest flow aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...
Main concern through 13Z will be late night/early morning fog
development. Conditions are not nearly as favorable for such this
morning as they were yesterday morning at this time. Given the
unseasonably warm temps Wed afternoon and loss of the wedge from
the day before, do not expect a repeat of the widespread dense
fog and low clouds this morning. Nonetheless, some MVFR conditions
in fog appear likely across the Piedmont and in localized areas
west of the Blue Ridge, namely KLWB and KBCB. Fog less likely west
because of increased winds aloft and increasing mid/high cloud
cover late. Regional radar showing echoes from KCRW back into
eastern KY. Not sure much of this is reaching the ground and this
will dissipate further before reaching the CWA.
Any fog will dissipate by 14Z. Through the day expect mainly VFR
with increasing mid/high clouds from the west during the
afternoon. By afternoon, a frontal system will move into the
western parts of the CWA. Models strongly suggesting that
precipitation into the RNK CWA will be limited and confined mainly
to areas along and west of the Alleghany front during the late
afternoon/early evening. Have continued mention of -SHRA KBLF to
KLWB and VCSH for KBCB during the late afternoon/early evening.
Ceilings will drop into the MVFR range before 06Z for KBLF and
KLWB as upslope flow commences with continuing rain showers in the
area. VFR conditions expected east, but low end VFR cigs certainly
possible for KBCB before 06Z.
Winds increase and become gusty west of the Blue Ridge after
daybreak as a tightening pressure gradient develops in advance of
the front. Light and variable or light southwest winds 3-5kts
overnight will become WSW-WNW 8-12kts with gusts 20-25kts after
14Z west of the Blue Ridge.
Medium to high confidence in cigs throughout the TAF valid period.
Medium confidence in vsbys until 14Z, then medium to high
confidence in vsbys through the remainder of the TAF valid period.
Medium to high confidence in wind speed/direction throughout the
TAF valid period.
Extended aviation discussion...
Northwest winds will remain gusty in the wake of the cold front
on Friday. Otherwise high pressure will move over the region and
linger through Monday. Upslope clouds will likely linger across
eastern WV into the morning hours Friday before conditions there
become VFR. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere Friday through
Monday as a large area of Canadian high pressure settles over the
area through the period. Late night and early morning fog may be
possible during the later portion of the period in mountain and river
valleys, but fog development is expected to be less than usual
given the pattern of high pressure and dry northwest flow aloft.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...
Record High Temperatures for November 3rd
Blacksburg, VA....79 in 2003
Bluefield, WV.....76 in 2003
Danville, VA......85 in 1974
Lynchburg, VA.....82 in 1974
Roanoke, VA.......82 in 1972
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...RAB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS/WP
AVIATION...RAB
CLIMATE...DS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
331 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.DISCUSSION...
The upslope sfc regime continues which is evident by dewpoints still
in the lower to middle 60s across the Four-State Region. Temp-dewpt
spreads of 3 degrees or less was noted across most of the region,
though the best moisture axis was across portions of Deep East TX
and central LA, thus patchy fog has commenced to develop there.
This should scour out later this morning as attention turns to
chances for precipitation.
An UA cutoff low has settled in near the Baja of Cali early this
morning, whilst a broad UA ridge stretched across the Gulf of Mexico
and Florida has resulted in sharpened southwest flow aloft across
the region. Atmospheric moistening has been taking place as PWATS
has surged into the 1.30-1.60 inch range /highest values across East
TX/. Although the UA low is downstream from the FA, large scale
ascent/a piece of jet energy has shifted east of the disturbance,
which is evident by a squall line moving east southeast along a
Caddo OK to an east of Dallas TX to a Clifton TX line, with
additional scattered precip as far west as west TX and the Permian
Basin areas. 08Z radar analysis showed that the squall line has
diminished a bit in strength since earlier this morning, as it
shifts away from its main UL support. The HRRR solution appears to
have be the best handle with this precip activity as such, the
line of storms will be showing notable signs of decay by 12Z
/which will lessen concerns for wind gusts/, but some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will still make it to east TX
and southeast OK in the next hour or so, and to the majority of
the FA throughout the day with the onset of daytime heating. We
will however remain vigilant and keep an eye on radar as squall
lines tend to produce wind gusts and brief moderate-heavy
rainfall.
A broad UA trough swinging southeast across the Great Lakes region
and the northeast CONUS will send down a cold front late
tonight/early tomorrow morning. This front will usher in a dry
/PWATS dropping to below 1.00 inch/ and cooler airmass /temps
falling into the 70s by Friday/. The infiltration of drier air
coupled with the return of the UA ridge, will put the kibosh on
precip Friday-weekend. Thereafter, the quasi-stationary UA low
across the Desert southwest will finally eject northeast to the
Northern/High Plains late weekend/early next week, but long term
solutions continue to hint at a general area of troughiness
returning west of the CWA next week. Hence, southwest flow aloft
and southeasterly sfc winds, combined with with a nearby
disturbance may lead to the return for precip. The Super-blended
solution exhibiting slight chance to low end chance pops for next
week seems reasonable for now, but keep in mind that things could
change.
Nearby sfc ridging and cloudy conditions will cause temps to remain
in the 70s through next week, with overnight lows in the 40s and
50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 81 63 78 50 / 30 20 10 0
MLU 84 61 79 46 / 20 20 0 0
DEQ 80 58 77 47 / 30 10 0 0
TXK 78 59 76 48 / 30 10 10 0
ELD 80 58 75 45 / 30 20 0 0
TYR 79 63 78 52 / 30 20 10 10
GGG 81 64 78 51 / 30 20 10 0
LFK 83 66 80 54 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
29
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
755 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will weaken today ahead of an
approaching cold front. The cold front will move through the area
late tonight. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Nocturnal cooling with light wind supports fog early this morning.
The HRRR displays fog mainly in the east part of the forecast
area. A little mixing associated with a low-level jet and very
shallow moisture may continue to limit the fog in the west
section. Forecasted the more widespread fog in the east part. A
dense fog advisory may be needed. Heating and mixing should
dissipate any fog around 900 am. It will be a warm day ahead of
the approaching cold front. Followed the temperature guidance with
highs in the middle 80s. These readings will be close to records
for the date. The record high at Columbia Metro for today`s date is
88 set in 1974. The record at Augusta Bush for the date is 86 also
set in 1974. The models are consistent keeping moisture shallow
through today and it should remain dry. The NAM and GFS MOS pops
are less than 10 percent. The NAM bufkit momentum transfer tool
supports wind gusts 15 to 20 mph today.
The cold front is forecast to move through the area during the 06z
to 12z time frame tonight. Moisture should remain limited with
h85 westerly flow ahead of the cold front. Continued the forecast
of just a small chance of showers mainly in the north section. A
little more moisture and lift associated with the upper trough
supports the higher pop in the north. The NAM and GFS depict light
rainfall amounts of less than one-tenth of an inch. Mixing
associated the front should help hold up temperatures tonight. The
temperature guidance was close with lows around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering moisture close to the departing front supports a small
shower chance early Friday in the east section. Otherwise, it
should be dry behind the cold front. The NAM bufkit momentum
transfer tool supports wind gusts 15 to 20 mph Friday. Diminished
wind will occur Friday night with the loss of heating and mixing.
Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF displayed ridging dominating through the
medium-range period. The GFS and ECMWF MOS were in agreement with
pops less than 15 percent through Wednesday. The models were close
with a seasonably cool air mass early with a slight warming trend
by the middle of next week. The MOS indicated lows in the middle
30s to lower 40s Saturday night and Sunday night. Frost may occur
in the normally colder locations.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Patchy fog in the vcnty of AGS/OGB will dissipate by 14z. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions. A cold front will cross the TAF sites late
tonight. Should see increasing mid level clouds ahead of the front
tonight. Southwest to west winds ahead of the front will become
northerly behind the front by the end of the TAF period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions to
aviation expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
It will be warm ahead of the approaching cold front today.
Forecast temperatures are expected to top out in the lower and
middle 80s. This will be approaching records for the
date especially at Augusta. Here area the records for both
Augusta and Columbia.
Augusta...
November 3rd...86 degrees in 1974
Columbia...
November 3rd...88 degrees in 1974
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
950 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach from the southwest today, cross the
Gulf of Maine tonight, then exit across the maritimes Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
940 AM Update...
The latest sfc analysis showed a frontal boundary across the
western areas w/low pres moving across NYS. Rain shield starting
to push into the southern areas and pushing northward. Adjusted
the pops to bring rain in a bit earlier across downeast and
central areas per the latest radar. NAM12 and HRRR in line
w/placement for the most part. Adjusted the QPF for today using
the NAM12 and NERFC delaying rainfall across the northern areas
til later this afternoon. One other note, analysis indicated a
coastal front trying to set up along the immediate coast. It will
be interesting to see how this boundary plays into the afternoon
forecast.
Previous Discussion... Low pressure will track across New England
to the Gulf of Maine today, cross the Gulf of Maine early tonight,
then exit southeast of Nova Scotia later tonight. Rain will expand
across the region today with the approach of the low. Rain will
initially develop across central and Downeast portions of the
forecast area this morning, then expand across northern areas
later this morning into the afternoon. The heaviest rains today
will fall across Downeast areas, with lesser rainfall totals
northward across the remainder of the forecast area with the least
rain expected across the Saint John Valley. Rain will taper to
showers early tonight in the wake of the exiting low. Colder air
will be drawn across the region overnight. Based on critical
thicknesses, expect the rain showers will transition to snow
showers or mix with snow showers across northern and northwest
areas later tonight. Any snow accumulations across northern and
northwest areas are expected to be less than an inch, with the
better chances of any snow accumulation across extreme northern
and higher terrain areas. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly
cloudy across the region tonight. High temperatures today will
range from the upper 40s to around 50 north, to around 50 to the
lower 50s Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
lower to mid 30s north, to around 40 to the lower 40s Downeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect low pressure to the east of Nova Scotia to continue to
move to the Northeast as strong high pressure builds in from the
west. At the same time an upper trough will move across New
England. Skies are expected to clear later Friday Night into
early Saturday as high pressure builds across the region. Clouds
are then expected to increase during the day Saturday as low
pressure approaches from the northwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Light snow is possible in the north Saturday Night as low
pressure approaches from the northwest and then moves across the
northern portion of the state. Showers are expected from this
system over the southern portion of the region. The low is then
expected to move into the Gulf of Maine Sunday. Clearing is
expected Monday as high pressure builds in from the west. A cold
front will then approach from the northwest Tuesday then move
across the State Tuesday Night. High pressure is then expected to
move in from the west Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally expect MVFR/IFR conditions today through
early tonight, though occasional LIFR conditions are possible
early this morning. MVFR conditions are then expected later
tonight.
SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Friday into Saturday. MVFR
conditions expected late Saturday and Saturday Night. Occasional
MVFR conditions are possible Sunday. VFR conditions expected
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels today through early tonight. A Small Craft
Advisory has been issued starting overnight. Visibilities will
be reduced in rain today through early tonight, with scattered
showers later tonight. Patchy fog is also possible this morning.
SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS20 for sustained wind grids. For
waves: For Friday and Saturday the primary wave system will be
off-shore wind wave with wave heights a function of distance off-
shore. Wind wave will be accompanied by longer period
southeasterly swell (1 foot/11 seconds). Wind wave is then
expected to become more northerly Sunday. Winds are then expected
to diminish Monday with long period southeasterly swell again
becoming the primary waves system.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Friday
for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Hewitt/Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Hewitt/Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Hewitt/Norcross/Mignone
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1151 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Hydro
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
As our frontal wave moves away from the area the rain will end in
all areas prior to sunrise. Areas of fog will persist into mid
morning. A secondary cold front my touch off a few light rain
shower north and east of Grand Rapids this afternoon. Still it
will remain unseasonably mild. Highs should be near 60.
Tonight skies should clear and that will allow for temperatures to
fall into the lower to mid 30s. After that a slow warm up is
expected through the weekend with little in the way of clouds.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
I`ve expanded the area for an isolated shower this afternoon as
the short wave comes through. It appears all but the far SW corner
of the state could see a brief period of showers. Any showers
should be exiting the area by early evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
The only real issue is the potential for fog this morning. With
all the rain that fell in the last 24 hours and due to the lack of
any strong dry wind to mix out the low level moisture it would
seem reasonable to expect fog. This was already in the forecast so
I allowed it to remain.
There is a shallow cold front that surges through the state this
afternoon into early tonight. The northern branch of the polar jet
actually is forecast to get south of the CWA by evening. So with a
decent shortwave and surface cold front it would seem more than
reasonable to leave the showers in our forecast over areas north
and east of Grand Rapids.
Due to another huge storm in the Gulf of Alaska by Saturday, I
would expect the upper ridge to expand and inflate over the Great
Lakes over the weekend. This should result in amazingly nice
weather for this time of year. Highs should be in the 60s and lows
in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
A high pressure ridge will continue to bring fair and seasonably
mild weather Saturday night through Monday. High temperatures both
Sunday and Monday should reach well into the 60`s with the fairly
high amplitude upper ridge in place by then.
A cold front will bring potential for scattered light rain showers
Monday night into Tuesday. However moisture is lacking with this
system so only low pops remain warranted. Another ridge of high
pressure will build in for the middle of next week and bring fair wx
with seasonable temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 735 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
There is a large area of fog and low ceilings moving southward
behind a secondary cold front. The latest RAP model shows the
progression of the fog nicely and I used it to help with the 12z
tafs timing the fog and low ceilings in and out. Most areas
should see the clouds mix out by early afternoon as the air behind
that front has stronger winds and deep mixing. Skies should be
mostly clear tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Due to the passage of the secondary cold front during the
afternoon one should expect increased winds into the evening
before they again diminish. At this point I would think winds and
waves should stay below small craft criteria but I could see a
few hours of 15 to 25 knot winds and waves to 4 feet. This all
should subside by mid evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1151 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
A swath of rainfall extending from Holland, Grand Rapids and east
through Lansing, resulted in totals around 1.00 inch. The heaviest
amounts were reported between Grand Rapids and Holland with totals
pushing over 1.5 inches.
A wet October has kept many locations moist leading into November.
Much of the rainfall in the last 24 hours will make its way into
streams and rivers over the course of the next few days. A few
sites (Eagle, Maple Rapids and Ionia) are forecast to exceed
bankfull, but are expected to remain well below actual flood
stage.
Dry weather gradually sets in by Friday and extends into the
weekend. This should allow rivers to respond before improving into
next week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1041 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Weather map shows cool front across TX from the Rio Grand Valley
northeast thru the Arklatex. Radar this morning showing minimal
convection, remaining north of College Station to Crockett.
Otherwise, persistent morning fog is finally lifting to low cloud
layer mainly north of the Houston metro area to College Station.
Updates included lowering pops to 30% across northern and western
zones, and leaving 20% elsewhere, for latest HRRR guidance still
indicates isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/
UPDATE...
Quick update to add 40 PoPs for extreme northern and northwestern
portions of the forecast area based on latest radar trends. Line
of thunderstorms from earlier this morning continues to weaken,
but new development continues along and ahead of an associated
outflow boundary stretching from near Temple to Tyler. MSAS
analysis shows the cold pool behind this boundary continuing to
modify and confidence is not high in the boundary making it very
far into the forecast area as a result. Also added a mention of
isolated showers to the marine areas. No other changes made to
ongoing forecast, with surface analysis showing the cold frontal
boundary stretching from near the Davis Mountains to North Central
Texas.
Huffman
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/
AVIATION...
A line of shra/tsra associated with a weak and slow moving cold
front over N TX will weaken as they approach a capped environment
over SE TX. A few streamer showers will approach the coast early
this morning but these should also dissipate as they move inland.
Areas of fog and low ceilings could impact TAF sites early this
morning. A brief period of IFR cigs possible at KIAH, KCXO and
KUTS through 14z with conds improving rapidly thereafter. Short
term guidance keeps most of the shra/tsra west of the TAF sites
today. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Regional radar mosaic shows a line of thunderstorms associated
with a cold front pushing east-southeast across North Central
Texas early this morning. SPC Mesoanalysis this morning shows mid
level flow nearly parallel to the frontal boundary across portions
of North Central Texas this morning, which provides little support for
the front to reach Southeast Texas today. However, the cold pool
associated with the ongoing thunderstorm line will allow both the
thunderstorms to propagate closer towards the region through the
remainder of the morning hours.
Evening soundings from Shreveport and Lake Charles showed a well
defined cap around 750 MB and expect this line to weaken as it
encounters an increasingly stable environment. Have added 20-30
PoPs to the western and northern counties in case any activity is
able to make it into these areas this morning, but concerned that
these thunderstorms will dissipate north of the region and cause
the associated frontal boundary to stall. This would keep most of
the forecast area dry through the morning hours, with the main
sensible weather concern being patchy fog lingering through mid-
morning.
Early morning water vapor imagery shows a cutoff low over Arizona
with broad anticyclonic flow in place across the Gulf of Mexico
associated with an expansive upper ridge. This is resulting in
southwest flow aloft across Texas this morning, which will allow a
mid/upper level disturbance to translate across the state out of
Mexico today. While this disturbance looks to stay too far north
and west of the region to serve as an appreciable trigger for
convection today, its passage should provide enough of a push to
send the stalled frontal boundary into the region later this
afternoon and evening... with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing generally west of Interstate 45 as a
result. Can`t rule out a few diurnally driven showers farther
east, but anticipate best rain chances to be west of the
Interstate 45 corridor today given the anticipated trajectory of
this shortwave trough. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy
skies today with unseasonably warm temperatures rising again into
the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
A few showers may linger along the frontal boundary this evening
as it moves towards the coast during the morning hours, but
expect another dry night overnight with lows in the mid 60s to low
70s. An upper trough now located over the Midwest will continue to
slide towards the southeastern U.S. tonight and Friday, allowing a
reinforcing front to backdoor into the region during the afternoon
and evening hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will again be possible along this secondary boundary, but drier
air filtering into the region in the wake of this feature will
result in a dry start to the weekend. Expect highs in the mid 70s
to near 80 with lows in the 50s to low 60s this weekend. Rain
chances will increase for areas west of the Interstate 45
corridor by Sunday as Gulf moisture surges back into the region
and the cutoff low over Arizona shears into an open wave as it
swings towards the Central and Southern Plains.
There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the Monday
through Wednesday portion of the forecast, but the general trend
amongst medium range guidance is to develop a secondary cutoff low
somewhere from the Desert Southwest to West Texas and meander this
feature west of the region. Smaller disturbances rotating around
this feature look to induce a coastal trough along the Texas
coast, but deterministic guidance offers differing solutions on
when this feature may approach Southeast Texas (the European
offers a faster early week solution, while the GFS brings the
trough through later in the week). Regardless, the early to middle
part of next week looks to be defined by periods of showers and
thunderstorms with temperatures near seasonal normals as a result.
Huffman
MARINE...
Elevated seas/swells will gradually dampen as winds as the long
east fetch across the Gulf of Mexico weakens and becomes more NE.
Tide levels remain 1.0 to 1.4 feet above normal and tide levels
peaked near 3.0 feet earlier tonight at high tide. A cold front
will move off the coast Friday but pressure rises behind the front
are not all that impressive as the high shifts more to the east
instead of south. The pressure gradient will tighten a bit over
the weekend as surface low pressure over central plains deepens
and onshore winds will strengthen Saturday night. Elevated tides
near 3.0 feet will again be possible Saturday night. SE winds will
increase Sunday through Tuesday as a coastal trough develops.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms and moderate onshore winds
are expected over the western Gulf early next week as the coastal
trough remains nearly stationary across the Upper Texas Coast. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 66 82 60 76 / 30 20 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 85 68 84 61 79 / 20 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 73 81 69 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1035 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Updated the forecast to remove the morning fog wording as the
visibilites have lifted to 3-6 miles by late morning over central
IL. Also lower chances of showers over southeast IL this morning,
and cooled highs 1-2 degrees over northeast CWA and slowed down
the clearing of the low stratus clouds (bases 500-1500 ft). Latest
high resolution forecast models still show the low clouds clearing
from nw to se during the afternoon so just had to slow the
clearing by 1-2 hours. So cloudy skies late this morning to become
mostly sunny during the afternoon with NNW winds 7-15 mph. Highs
mostly in the mid to upper 60s, ranging from lower 60s northeast
of I-74 to near 70F by Lawrenceville.
Latest surface map shows cold front pushing southeast toward
Lawrenceville in far southeast IL and will exit the state in next
hour. Isolated light rain showers possible southeast of I-70 until
noon, then dry conditions expected the rest of the day with
clearing skies during the afternoon as surface high pressure ridge
over the central Rockies expands eastward toward the MS river
valley and western Great Lakes region into this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows slow-moving cold front along the I-72
corridor...with main area of showers/thunder well to the south
across southern Missouri into southern Illinois. Front will
continue to sag southward, eventually exiting the KILX CWA by
midday. Based on model consensus and latest radar imagery, will
carry chance PoPs for showers along/south of I-70 through the
morning...then will go dry across the board this afternoon. The
other short-term weather issue will be early morning fog across the
north. Current obs show visbys between 1 and 3 miles along and
north of a Jacksonville to Bloomington line where quite a bit of
rain occurred last evening and winds have gone nearly calm behind
the front. HRRR suggests the fog will become more widespread over
the next few hours...potentially developing as far south as I-72.
Will therefore mention fog across the northern half of the
CWA...with areas of fog along/north of a Canton to Bloomington line.
Early morning fog/low clouds will dissipate toward midday, with
mostly sunny skies prevailing this afternoon. Due to northerly
winds behind the front, high temperatures will remain in the 60s
today...then will drop into the lower to middle 40s tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Quiet weather will prevail through the entire extended, with the
recent stretch of above normal temperatures continuing through next
week. The coolest day of the forecast period will be Friday, when
deep-layer northerly flow keeps temps in the lower to middle 60s.
After that, upper ridging will build back into the region, allowing
temperatures to climb back into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees
over the upcoming weekend. Models show the next weak short-wave and
accompanying frontal boundary swinging through the region late
Monday into Tuesday: however, with very little moisture to work
with, rain chances will be nil. Once this feature passes, upper
ridging will again take hold, leading to more warm/dry weather
through the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
LIFR conditions effecting all sites due to cloud heights below
1kft. Also patchy light fog at all locations this morning. Both
fog and lower cigs will gradually improve about mid morning once
some of the higher clouds, seen on satellite, push east. Vis will
likely improve first, followed by cloud cover scattering out late
morning. By late afternoon, skies will become clear at all sites
and these conditions will continue into the evening. Not sure how
much moisture will get mixed out this afternoon, so have included
possibility of some fog at the sites after midnight. Winds will be
northwest-north through most of the forecast period, and then
become northeast overnight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
734 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 448 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2016
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a ridge over the Rockies
and a trof extending from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes. Shortwave
within the trof is approaching the Upper Lakes and has supported
increasing coverage of -shra across the area over the last few hrs,
especially the northern half of Upper MI. Cold front associated
with the wave extends from se Lake Superior to near KIWD.
00z model runs, high res guidance in particular, and short term
updating models, RAP and HRRR, have all captured ongoing pcpn quite
well early this morning and form a good basis for construction of
pops for today. With deep layer forcing for upward motion associated
with shortwave exiting the area by aftn, shra will mostly end by
aftn, though upslope low-level cyclonic flow should allow a few
-shra to persist into early to possibly mid aftn. Trended sky
condition a little more pessimistic today as low-level cyclonic
flow, 850mb thermal trof and upslope flow off Lake Superior will
likely lead to more stubborn stratocu. Clearing should begin over
the Keweenaw first during the latter part of the aftn. Clear to
partly cloudy skies should then be the rule by mid evening. There
are some hints that clouds cloud linger well into the evening over
parts of the area. That will need to be reassesed as the day
progresses. As for temps, expect highs ranging from the mid 40s
across the higher terrain of the nw and n central to the mid 50s far
s central. Assuming clouds depart as expected, dry column and
light/calm winds thru at least the evening hrs should allow for a
quick temp drop tonight. Leaned fcst toward the bias corrected CMC
guidance as it normally performs best in radiational cooling
situations. Expect mid/upper 20s in the interior. Temps may begin to
rise some late tonight across the w as return flow strengthens.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2016
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the plains 12z Fri
with a closed 500 mb low over the desert sw and troughs on both
coasts. The ridge slowly moves into the upper Great Lakes by Sun
morning. Will be warm, dry and quiet for this forecast period. Did
not make many changes to the going forecast.
In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the southern
and central Rockies 12z Sun with a ridge across the sern U.S. into
the upper Great Lakes. This trough moves into the plains 12z Mon
with the ridge over the lower Great Lakes then. The trough moves
through the upper Great Lakes on Tue. More ridging then builds into
the area for Wed. Temperatures will continue to be above normal
and will remain dry through most of this period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 734 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2016
Passing cold front and following upslope northerly winds will bring
a period of IFR to LIFR conditions to KIWD/KSAW this morning. With
these low clouds already shifted s of KCMX, MVFR conditions should
prevail at that terminal. In addition, some -shra are expected
across the area this morning, possibly lingering into the aftn
around KSAW. As drier air arrives with approaching sfc high pres,
KCMX/KIWD should break out to VFR mid to late aftn. Upslope winds
should delay VFR until early evening at KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 448 AM EDT THU NOV 3 2016
Although it`s Nov, conditions across Lake Superior will be
relatively quiet with no gales expected thru at least early next
week. Strongest winds, 20-25kt, will occur Fri and Mon.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Rolfson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
923 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure passes to our north today, pulling a cold
front across the area later in the day and into the evening. High
pressure is forecast to build to our south and west this weekend,
before building across the east coast early next week. A weak
frontal boundary may affect the east coast Saturday night as an area
of low pressure drifts south of New England and strengthens off the
east coast on Sunday. High pressure builds offshore Tuesday, before
a cold front approaches the area during the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Areas of fog have developed across the CWA, with visibilities
generally down to a mile. There are some spots where visibilities
have dropped to less than mile, and near zero locally. Dense fog
is not widespread enough to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory, but have
issued an SPS and will add to the HWO. Fog has been slow to
dissipate this morning in spots and the SPS was extended till 10
am.
Otherwise, cold front approaches today, and passes through the
region late this afternoon. Showers ahead of the cold front will
move into the Lehigh Valley and Pocono Mountains late this
morning, and showers should hold off for most of central NJ and
back into Philly and the rest of SE PA until 17-19Z. Pops were
increased for the late morning hours across northern portions of
the region given the latest HRRR, RAP model runs and radar trends.
With warm air in place ahead of the front, highs will top off in the
mid and upper 60s across most northern and western areas, but south
of I-95, temps will warm into the upper 70s to around 80. In these
areas, CAPE values will rise to 250-300 J/kg, but other instability
parameters will be marginal as the LI should be above 1C, and the
Showalter Index will be above 1C. Will continue to carry isolated
thunder in the forecast.
Based on latest models, seems as if showers should taper off as the
front passes through the region, and not expecting much showers
across the Delmarva.
SW winds increase ahead of the front to around 15 MPH with gusts up
to 20 MPH, and then winds shift to the NW behind the front by
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Cold front passes through southern portions of the forecast area in
the evening, and any lingering showers will taper off over southern
zones early.
Skies clear out early, and then H5 trough/shortwave will pass
through the region late tonight. Models not showing much in the way
of precip over the local area. Will have some sprinkles for the
Poconos and northern NJ late.
With CAA underway, a much colder airmass spreads into the region.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to low 40s across the
Poconos and northern NJ, and in the mid to upper 40s most
elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday, a large area of high pressure will be to our west and we
will be on the eastern periphery. This will keep dry weather for the
area, with gusty winds as a north-northwest flow will be in place.
Winds will likely gust at least 20-25 mph at times. Temperatures
will be seasonably cool, about 20 degrees cooler than today. Dry
conditions will continue into Friday night as the high remains to
our west.
On Saturday and Saturday night, a frontal boundary is forecast to
move across the area as a weak area of low pressure drifts southward
across New England. The low is forecast to strengthen off the east
coast as it continues southward during the day Sunday. The best
chances of precipitation will likely stay north of the area where
there is greater low level lift and moisture combination. But it
would not be surprising for a few showers or sprinkles to make their
way into our area over the weekend.
By Monday, the high pressure to our west builds eastward across the
east coast. This will provide cool and dry weather for the start of
the work week. The high builds south of the area Monday night into
Tuesday, but dry weather is still expected across the area.
A cold front is expected to approach the are Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Any rainfall associated with the frontal boundary could
dry out before reaching our area, but we will insert slight chances
for showers in the forecast for now.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Generally Fog may result in LIFR conditions early this morning.
Conditions improve to VFR between 13-14Z.
SHRA and isolated TSRA develops from west to east as a cold front
approaches and passes through the region. MVFR conditions
possible, but cannot rule out brief IFR conditions in heavier
showers.
VFR by this evening.
SW winds ahead of the front will increase to 10-15 KT with gusts up
to 20 KT. Behind the front, winds shift to the NW, and gradually
diminish to less than 10 KT by this evening.
OUTLOOK...
Friday-Monday...Generally VFR. Gusty northwest winds Friday 20-25
knots. Less gusty on Saturday. Gusty northwest winds Sunday 20-25
knots. Less gusty on Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Areas of locally dense fog with VSBY 1NM or less are possible for
the nearshore waters early this morning. Do not think it is
widespread enough to warrant a Marine Dense Fog Advisory, but will
mention in the HWO and will issue a MWS. Fog lifts and burns off
through 12-13Z.
SW winds 10 KT or less tonight increase to 10-15 KT this afternoon.
A cold front passes across the waters late this afternoon and this
evening, and winds shift to the NW behind the front. A few gusts to
25 KT possible late this afternoon, but widespread NW winds at 15-20
KT with gusts 25-30KT will hold off until tonight. Will keep start
time of SCA as is.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms develop with the approach and
passage of the cold front, and then showers taper off by this
evening.
OUTLOOK...
Friday...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.
Friday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible early,
diminishing overnight.
Saturday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected.
Saturday night-Sunday...A return to Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible.
Sunday night-Monday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the high temperature records for today. Thursday,
November 3:
ACY...81/2003
PHL...80/1990
ILG...78/2003
ABE...79/2003
TTN...80/2003
GED...80/1982
RDG...79/2003
MPO...73/2003
Temperatures within 2f of record are likely at KGED, KILG and KACY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Friday
for ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Gaines/MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Gaines/Robertson/MPS
Marine...Robertson
Climate...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1004 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, both at the surface and aloft over the region this
morning, will give way to a strong cold front and upper trough
moving southeast from the Great Lakes. Canadian high pressure will
build over the region Friday and remain in place through the first
half of next week at which time a weak cold front will move into
the region from the northwest.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EDT Thursday...
The latest radar trends and then latest computer models are
indicating an ever slower arrival of precipitation across the
area than what has been advertised. Have adjusted the timing in
the forecast accordingly. Limited areas east of the Blue Ridge and
south of Route 460 will see any precipitation until sunset. The
bulk of the precipitation will be confined to southeast West
Virginia and neighboring areas of southwest Virginia from mid-
afternoon through sunset. No other significant changes at this
time.
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...
Finally an end to the late fall seemingly eternal warmth of recent
weeks as a northern stream positive tilted upper trough moves from
the Great Lakes toward the northern Mid-Atlantic through Friday.
This will push a strong cold front through the region overnight
and finally bringing an end to the unseasonably warm temperatures.
Main points to consider during this period are chances for rain,
chances for thunder, potential for gusty winds behind the front,
and max/min temperatures during the period.
Most models agree that precipitation will drift into the western
areas during the late afternoon, then attempt to move into the
Piedmont during the evening. Conditions for much precipitation are
not favorable despite this being a strong front. Antecedent air
mass is dry and stable and recovery will be limited. PWATS are
progged to remain mostly below 1 inch, although the GFS is
somewhat more agressive in 1.0 to 1.5 inch PWATS across the
Piedmont. More importantly, the main dynamics remain well to the
north of the region across PA and points north to northeast. HRRR
CAPES are 400 J/kg at best, while average Brooks/Craven values
among GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/NAM are in the 1500-2500 range, barely
suggestive of thunder. The best Theta-E ridging remains back
across the TN Valley into the Mid- South. Consequently, am not
excited about the chances for thunder. The most likely area to see
any thunder would be just west of the Alleghany Front during the
afternoon and in far southwest VA into eastern TN during the
evening. Have included isold thunder in these areas only. QPF is
unimpressive for many of the same reasons stated above and
confidence in even this is very low. Rainfall amounts are
expected to be 1/4 inch or less, with the greatest amounts in far
southwest VA and across eastern WV. Piedmont areas may not see
much more than a sprinkle or light rain shower overnight. Upslope
precipitation is expected to be quite limited given a quick
transition to northern flow along the Alleghany Front behind the
front.
Given that the front will not arrive until evening west and
overnight east, it will be another unseasonably warm day. However,
cloud cover will inhibit the amount of warming observed yesterday,
especially in the west. Piedmont areas will likely still see some
low 80s as there may still be a fair amount of insolation in those
regions. Moreover, there is little change in the 850 mb temps
today, so no support for cooling there. Max temps will again be
close to records this afternoon for ROA and LYH, but they may fall
just shy of such.
Min temps Friday are expected to remain above normal, but not as
mild as what we are seeing this morning. Fairly strong CAA will
allow 850mb temps to drop from +12C to +15C this afternoon to
around +4C to +8C by 12Z Friday. This will yield lows in the 40s
west to 50s east in the morning.
The final consideration this period will be wind. Gusty WSW-W
winds are expected today, mainly west of the Blue Ridge. Gusty
northwest winds are expected behind the cold front given good
cold advection and pressure rises. Winds are not expected to meet
advisory criteria, however.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...
An upper level trough will swing east of the area Friday morning,
pushing a cold front out into the western Atlantic. With the front
offshore, cooler air will filter into the region Friday and
Saturday. This frontal passage will knock temperatures back down to
normal levels with highs across the mountains in the upper 50s to
lower 60s and mid to upper 60s east. Heights increase Sunday along
with increasing southerly flow to allow temperatures to moderate
above normal across the forecast area.
A modest pressure gradient will reside over the mountains Friday.
This pressure gradient along with pressure rises and cold air
advection will bring breezy and gusty conditions to the area. The
best pressure rises will occur in the morning with gusts up to 30
mph, then subside going into the afternoon and overnight hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Wednesday...
Continued dry most of the period with upper ridge situated over the
Central U.S. early on. Temperatures should not be as warm but still
slightly above normal for early November. Stronger shortwave
advertised by models should dive across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-
Atlantic by Tuesday-Wednesday allowing for a front to cross. A few
showers will occur with the front, with somewhat cooler highs for
Wednesday. Overall pattern beyond the middle of next week paints a
drier than normal picture with continued northwest flow aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 740 AM EDT Thursday...
So far, the only site with fog issues of significance this
morning, KDAN, where it was briefly IFR/LIFR, but has improved to
MVFR and should improve to VFR vby 14Z. Overall fog development
this morning has been quite limited compared to Wed and will not
be an issue after 14Z anyway.
Expecting mainly VFR cigs/vsbys with increasing mid/high clouds
from the west during the afternoon. By afternoon, a frontal system
will move into the western parts of the CWA. Models strongly
suggesting that precipitation into the RNK CWA will be limited and
confined mainly to areas along and west of the Alleghany front
during the late afternoon/early evening. Have continued mention of
-SHRA KBLF to KLWB and VCSH for KBCB during the late
afternoon/early evening. However, latest model guidance indicates
that precipitation could be slightly more extensive than expected
earlier and further east with time. Have included TEMPO groups for
-SHRA and MVFR cigs/vsbys in the 00Z - 04Z time frame from west to
east. Ceilings will drop into the MVFR range before 06Z for KBLF,
KLWB, and KBCB as upslope flow, even though the rain showers will
end. VFR conditions should hold east of the Blue Ridge, but low
end VFR cigs certainly possible
Winds increase and become gusty west of the Blue Ridge after
daybreak as a tightening pressure gradient develops in advance of
the front. Light and variable or light southwest winds 3-5kts
overnight will become WSW-WNW 8-12kts with gusts 20-25kts after
14Z west of the Blue Ridge. Winds will become more NW behind the
front with speeds 6-8kts and some low end gusts possible,
especially for a few hours following frontal passage. It should be
noted that a period of stronger, gusty winds quite possible
immediately following the front, but exact timing of this will
need to be refined with later TAF issuances.
Medium to high confidence in cigs throughout the TAF valid period.
Medium confidence in vsbys until 14Z, then medium to high
confidence in vsbys through the remainder of the TAF valid period.
Medium to high confidence in wind speed/direction throughout the
TAF valid period.
Extended aviation discussion...
Northwest winds will remain gusty in the wake of the cold front
on Friday. Otherwise high pressure will move over the region and
linger through Monday. Upslope clouds will likely linger across
eastern WV into the morning hours Friday before conditions there
become VFR. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere Friday through
Monday as a large area of Canadian high pressure settles over the
area through the period. Late night and early morning fog may be
possible during the later portion of the period in mountain and river
valleys, but fog development is expected to be less than usual
given the pattern of high pressure and dry northwest flow aloft.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...
Record High Temperatures for November 3rd
Blacksburg, VA....79 in 2003
Bluefield, WV.....76 in 2003
Danville, VA......85 in 1974
Lynchburg, VA.....82 in 1974
Roanoke, VA.......82 in 1972
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...DS/RAB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS/WP
AVIATION...RAB
CLIMATE...DS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
859 AM MST Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure near Rocky Point today will
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area through
Friday, with most favored locations north to east of Tucson. High
temperatures will be around early November normals through Friday.
Dry conditions and warmer temperatures will return area-wide this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Upper low this morning is positioned just SE of
Puerto Penasco/Rocky Point Sonora and will very slowly drift to the
northeast today and be near the international border around
South/Central Pima County tonight. We`ve already seen quite a few
showers and thunderstorms through the overnight period with even a
few reports of small hail. Radar showing two main areas of showers
at this time, the first being across Central and Western Pima County
with the other across Graham and Greenlee Counties with the
remainder of the area dry. The 12Z KTWC sounding came in moderately
unstable with a PWAT of 0.85 inches. Given the latest satellite
trends, along with review of the HRRR and UOFA WRF-NAM and GFS, the
best chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be
from Tucson northward as drier air gets wrapped in especially along
the International border from Sells eastward this afternoon and this
evening. While instability will only be marginal with MLCAPE values
around 500-1000 J/KG, the impressive shear and dynamics will result
in the potential for a few stronger to perhaps a couple of severe
thunderstorms. SPC already has areas north and east of Tucson
outlined in a marginal risk and that looks good. The main concern
will be hail and a strong wind threat with what will be low topped
thunderstorms this afternoon. We have also gone ahead and added
blowing dust to the forecast for the typically prone areas mainly in
Pinal County. Heading into this evening and tonight, the focus will
shift more towards Graham and Greenlee Counties where deeper
moisture and dynamics remain as the upper low starts to track a bit
more to the northeast. There could be a period through this evening
and overnight with some training showers and thunderstorms which
could result in a heavy rain and flash flood threat for this area.
The upper low will continue to shift to the northeast on Friday with
showers and thunderstorms continuing for Graham and Greenlee
Counties with the back edge generally pushing to the east into New
Mexico Friday evening. Drier air will start to move in on Saturday
with still some residual troughing hanging back through the forecast
area with a slight chance of showers still possible for the White
Mountains. Thereafter, dry weather is expected into early next week
as ridging tries to build back in. Still some uncertainty in the
model guidance in the medium range with the pattern aloft but don`t
see any major differences with regard to sensible weather.
Temperatures will be near normal through Friday, then warm to above
normal levels for early November later this weekend and into next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 04/18Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 6-10k ft AGL thru the forecast period. Slight
chance of -SHRA/-TSRA west of KTUS and chance of SHRA/TSRA from KTUS
east. Thunderstorm wind gusts to 40-45 kts possible. Brief MVFR
ceilings/visibilities possible with the heavier showers and
thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorm outflows, breezy ely/sely
surface wind at 12-18 kts with gusts to near 25 kts, especially in
the vicinity of KSAD, KDUG and KALK. Surface wind diminishing
tonight between 04/03Z and 04/06Z. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected today from the Tucson metro area north and east, with
isolated activity west of Tucson. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue on Friday, but mainly northeast of
Tucson across Graham and Greenlee counties. A slight chance of
showers continues across the White Mountains on Saturday, then dry
conditions will return area-wide Sunday into next Thursday. Expect
breezy east to southeast 20-foot winds today, otherwise 20-foot
winds will generally be less than 15 mph except for some afternoon
gustiness.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
GL
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
347 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
The main forecast concern for tonight is how widespread the fog
will be located across the area. The soundings continue to differ
on the amount of winds and moisture below 900 mb. Both the GFS
and RAP have a bit more wind than the NAM. As a result, they have
a deeper amount of low level moisture. The highest confidence for
fog will be across Wisconsin where the lighter winds will persist
the longest. As a result, went with areas of fog there and patchy
fog west of the Mississippi River. If this fog develops early
enough in the night, it may have an impact on the overnight
temperatures. As a result, we may be a bit too cool in central
Wisconsin.
With 925 mb temperatures on Friday in the 9 to 12C range, the high
temperatures will easily climb into the 60s. With the MOS being a
too cool lately, adjusted the high temperatures up a few degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
From Friday night through Sunday, the area will be mainly under
the control of high pressure area at both the surface and aloft.
As a short wave trough round the eastern periphery of this ridge
on Friday night, some mid and high clouds may move through north
central and central Wisconsin. Like yesterday, there is a bit of
uncertainty on how warm the 925 mb temperature may be on Saturday.
the GFS continues to hint that they will range from 12 to 15C (1.5
to 2 standard deviations above normal). Meanwhile the NAM and
ECMWF have these temperatures around 15C (closer to 2 standard
deviations above normal). If these latter temperatures verify,
there will be the potential for the high temperatures across the
area to range from the upper 60s to mid 70s which will be close to
the record highs for that day. More on the can be found in the
climate section below.
On Sunday, southerly winds will bring slightly cooler 925 mb
temperatures (around 12C) into the region. As a result, the high
temperatures will be mainly in the 60s for this day.
From Monday into Monday night, the 03.12z models continue to show
that a short wave trough will move through the region. This system
does not have a lot of moisture to work with, so the rain chances
will remain in the 20 to 40 percent range.
Beyond Monday night, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase
diagrams continue to show that there will be a strong signal
(nearly 2 standard deviations above normal) in Phase 8 (western
Hemisphere). However looking at how this signal progresses through
Phases 6 and 7 (western Pacific), almost wondering whether this is
not a robust MJO, but instead a fast-moving Kelvin wave. This
could explain why the models are not resembling the composites
that we normally would see across North America. Regardless of
whether it is a MJO or not, the models are in good agreement that
the East Asian Jet will extend into West Coast. However the models
then differ on what happens down stream across the United States.
For example the operational GFS develops a closed low over the
central United States by mid week. Meanwhile many members of its
ensemble family does not have this feature. The main question for
the end of this time period will be the western extent of the long
wave trough over the eastern United States. This results in a low
confidence forecast for this time period, so did not deviate from
the model consensus.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Patchy fog is occurring at KLSE early this morning reducing the
visibility to around 2 SM at times. The fog is very shallow and
should dissipate fairly quickly this morning, likely by 14Z.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected today into this evening.
Clear skies and light winds will create favorable conditions for
areas of fog later tonight into early Friday morning. Have
included 4 SM BR BCFG at the KLSE TAF starting at 08Z. If
confidence increases on the fog occurring, dense fog will have to
be added to the TAF. Have also included 5 SM BR at KRST starting
at 08Z. Confidence is lower that KRST will see fog tonight as
winds just above the surface increase into the 15-18 kt range, so
will have to keep a close eye on wind trends tonight.
&&
.CLIMATE...Saturday
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
With the high temperatures forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s
(potentially even warmer if the NAM and ECMWF verifies warmer
aloft), there will be the potential for a few record high
temperatures to be either tied or broken on Saturday. Here are
some of the record high temperatures for November 5th.
Austin MN - 71F in 2008
Charles City IA - 71F in 1945
Fayette IA - 73F in 1895
La Crosse WI - 71F in 1924
Medford WI - 70F in 1938
Prairie du Chien WI - 74F in 2008 and 2015
Rochester MN - 70F in 1893
Sparta WI - 75F in 2008
Winona MN - 74F in 2008 and 2015
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
CLIMATE...BOYNE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
411 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit into the Maritimes tonight into Friday. High
pressure will build to our southwest Friday night into Saturday as a
trough of low pressure remains in Eastern Canada.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain early tonight transitioning to snow showers by early Friday
morning across northern areas.
18Z sfc analysis showed low pres moving toward the Gulf of Maine
waters. Radar showed rain overspreading much of the region this
afternoon w/the heaviest rainfall across the downeast region. The
rain is expected to move through quickly this evening and
transition to showers later in the evening as the low passes
through the waters. Highest rainfall is expected to be across the
downeast areas w/up to 0.50 inches while further n and w, totals
are expected to be 0.20 to 0.30 inches. The latest run of the NAM
and RAP were handling things quite well in regards to timing and
placement. Both set of guidance showed caa draining down through
the column later tonight w/western and northern areas possibly
seeing some snow mixing in or even changing over by daybreak
Friday. The best chance of any changeover to snow as the NAM
showed is across the nw areas as blyr temps creep into the lower
30s. Little if any snow accumulation.
Friday will be a much cooler day and breezy w/nw winds taking
hold. The model soundings show the column drying out but thinking
is that the guidance is trying to clear things out too quick as
tends to be the case during this time of year and lows moving into
the Maritimes. Downeast regions should see more sun due to nw flow
and downslope. Daytime highs on Friday will be mid/upper 30s
northern 1/2 of the CWA while central and downeast areas will see
low to mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A large ridge of high pressure will be across the central part of
the country Friday night into Saturday as a trough of low pressure
remains over eastern Canada. Surface high pressure will briefly
nudge across the area Friday night bringing partial clearing. A
shortwave sliding southeast from central Canada will then bring
increasing clouds late Friday night followed by a chance for showers
on Saturday. Temps across the north will likely be cold enough for
snow showers. We will remain within the trough centered over Eastern
Canada Saturday night into Sunday. Some snow showers may still be
around Saturday night. On Sunday ridging will begin pushing in from
the west. This will allow cloudy skies to be followed by partial
clearing as the shortwave slides south and east of our area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A large upper level ridge combined with surface high pressure will
be pushing into the area on Monday bringing some sunshine with a
slightly milder afternoon. This will be followed by a clear night
Monday night as the ridge axes crosses the area. Tuesday will likely
begin mostly clear. However, as the ridge weakens and slides to the
south, a shortwave diving down from central Canada will bring
increasing clouds followed by a chance for some showers Tuesday
night. Strong ridging will remain back over the central part of the
country. This ridge will again push into the east to bring dry
weather Wednesday into Thursday. The ridge will weaken and retreat
west at the end of the week as the potential for a trough digging
south from Canada, and phasing in with a trough in the southeast,
brings a chance for wet weather at the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR tonight w/periods of IFR this evening and rain.
MVFR Friday morning for all terminals w/VFR for KBGR and KBHB by
mid morning. MVFR for the northern terminals into late morning and
then improvement to VFR.
.SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are likely
Friday night. Conditions may lower to MVFR Saturday into Sunday
morning, possibly dropping to IFR across the north late Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Conditions should return to VFR Sunday
afternoon and remain VFR in high pressure through Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA will remain in place. Conditions a bit slower to
come up per the latest obs. As the low passes the waters
overnight, winds turning to wsw and caa will allow for winds ans
seas to kick up. Decided to stay w/sustained winds to 15-20 kt
and gusts to 25 kts. Seas will average 3-5 ft away from the intra-
coastal zone.
SHORT TERM: An SCA will continue across the offshore waters
Friday night for wind gusts up to 25 kt in NW flow. Winds should
diminish late Friday night and remain below SCA through Saturday.
Winds may again approach SCA late saturday night through Sunday in
NW flow as a weak shortwave low exits into the Maritimes.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Friday
for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Hewitt
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Hewitt/Bloomer
Marine...Hewitt/Bloomer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
301 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Forecast highlights: Fog later tonight into Friday morning
southeast Kansas, shower/thunderstorm chances Saturday night into
early next week, and temperatures returning closer to normal
values by the weekend.
Per the RAP and HRRR, looks like a fairly decent fog setup
overnight into Friday morning over southeast Kansas, as high
pressure settles south amidst a moist boundary layer. Greatest
potential for widespread dense fog appears to be over far
southeast Kansas where combination of steep inversion, decoupled
boundary layer and low- level moisture will be greatest.
Evening/overnight shifts may need to monitor for possible dense
fog advisory.
Otherwise, continued above normal temperatures in the 70-75
degree range expected Friday under sunny skies. Daytime readings
will cool a tad for Saturday under an increasing veil of high
level clouds in advance of the next weather system.
Kleinsasser
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Per medium range model consensus, southwest CONUS cutoff low will
eventually eject northeast and approach Mid-America this weekend,
supporting slowly increasing shower/thunderstorm chances from the
west Saturday night through Sunday evening, persisting over
southeast Kansas through Monday night. Not expecting strong/severe
storms or heavy rain given marginal instability and weak forcing,
with many areas likely seeing no more than 0.25" moisture.
Temperature-wise this weekend through mid to late next week,
expecting readings to gradually cool to near seasonable values,
with daytime highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 40s to low
50s. Big differences between medium range solutions by mid-late
next week. The GFS is the lone outlier in stalling a cutoff low
across Mid-America, which if that verified would support daytime
highs only in the 50s with the potential for scattered showers
Wed-Thu. This scenario has some support from other GFS ensemble
members, but no support from the ECMWF or Canadian models, so will
keep status quo for now.
Kleinsasser
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016
Pesky low clouds in the IFR category persist in southeast Kansas
and are still expected to for the next couple of hours with a
gradual improvement. The timing is approximated to 20z. Otherwise
VFR conditions at all other sites. Winds will be light and become
variable this evening and overnight. There is some indication in
the models of a return to MVFR ceilings in southeast Kansas or
KCNU again after midnight, but confidence was not high enough to
insert anything at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 44 73 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 41 73 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 45 72 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
ElDorado 46 72 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 46 73 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 39 74 43 70 / 0 0 0 10
Great Bend 40 72 43 69 / 0 0 0 10
Salina 42 74 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 42 73 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 47 74 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 45 71 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 45 71 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 46 73 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...VJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
638 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight, bringing
a few showers overnight into Friday morning. Canadian high
pressure will follow, bringing cooler Fall like weather into
the Carolinas Friday through early next week. Milder weather
will return for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 640 PM Thursday...After a warm afternoon, changes are
coming with a cold front expected to push across the area
between 3 AM in northern sections of southeast North Carolina
and around sunrise over the northeastern South Carolina. The
HRRR continues to show the rain struggling to make it way into
the forecast area with the best chances for some accumulation
along the coastal southeast North Carolina.
The biggest impact of the colder temperatures appears to be
later on Friday which will not be impact this period. Overnight
lows appear will be in the lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Period starts with a strong cold front
moving offshore, followed by a cold and dry airmass as a
Canadian High moves in. Lingering showers Friday morning near
the coast will give way to sunny skies in the afternoon as a
deep dry column develops. For the remainder of the short term
temperatures will be on a downward trend with highs of around 70
on Friday and in the mid 60s on Saturday. Mins will drop down
into the lower and mid 40s Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...High amplitude ridge extending from
the Gulf states up to the upper Great Lakes will keep a deep
northerly flow over the eastern Carolinas through Monday. A low
riding down through New England southeast into the Atlantic in
this deep n-nw flow will tighten the gradient flow producing a
slight increase in northerly winds giving a reinforcing push of
mainly drier air through Monday. The models have nudged the
ridge slightly east with time which in turn has nudged the
strongest flow to the east and therefore not expecting more than
a slight spike in winds with a few degree drop in dewpoints Mon
eve. The flow becomes more progressive with ridge shifting east
extending up the southeast coast and high pressure overhead at
the sfc by Tues aftn followed by a shortwave and weak cold
front on Wed aftn which quickly will be replaced by high
pressure on Thurs. May be a few clouds with front on Wed but
otherwise expect plenty of sunshine.
Overall expect near normal temps with beautiful Fall like
weather with sunny days and clear nights and large diurnal
swings in temps. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s and
return to near 70 during the afternoons. By mid week should see
a slight rise in temps.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 18Z...Broad high pressure will retreat to the east
through tonight ahead of a strong cold front. Mostly clear sky
conditions will gradually feature lowering sky cover tonight,
with W/SW winds around 10 kts persisting until cold frontal
passage late. This front will cross from NW to SE a few hours
either side of daybreak, with isolated showers possible. The
best chance for showers will be at the coastal terminals, and
have introduced tempo MVFR along and just behind the front.
Winds will quickly increase from the N/NE behind the front as
well, gusting towards 20 kts on Friday.
Extended Outlook...Expect VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 PM Thursday...southwest winds of 10 knots are blowing
over the coastal waters this evening with combined seas of 2.3
feet and 2 foot east-southeast swells. Winds will veer overnight
to the west and then turn to the northwest generally between 3
AM and 6 AM as a cold front passes across the waters. wind
speeds are expected to increase to 15 knots. The stronger winds
are expected to occur after sunrise in the next period when a
small craft advisory is forecast to begin.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...A small craft advisory will be in
effect for Friday and Friday night as a strong cold surge moves
across the waters following a cold frontal passage. Winds could
gust up around 30 kts or so Friday afternoon with seas building
to 4 to 7 ft. Expect improving conditions on Saturday as high
pressure moves overhead.
LONG TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure extending down into the
area waters from the north will shift slowly east through the
period. This will maintain a fresh northerly flow over the
waters. There will be a slight uptick in the winds through Mon
as low drops down from New England southeast into the Atlantic
waters well off shore. The cool northerly flow at night will
also help to push winds up a bit. Therefore expect winds 10 to
15 kts Sun and Mon but closer to 15 in outer waters overnight.
By Tues, the center of high shifts closer overhead with the
gradient relaxing and winds diminishing to less than 10 kts.
Seas between 2 and 4 ft most days, but expect a slight increase
through Monday with some 5 fters in outer waters and then a
drop on Tues down below 3 ft most waters.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JDW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
654 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region tonight and early
Friday morning. High pressure will build in from the west Friday
afternoon into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 645 PM Thursday, cold front continues to make very slow
progress south from MD/WV this evening. Band of showers continues
moving into western and central Virginia and latest HRRR model
indicates what`s left of this line making its way across our CWA
between roughly 07z and 11z in the morning. Have observed no
lightning with this activity and if current trends continue, will
likely be able to remove thunder from the forecast on the next
update. No big changes to the forecast at this time other than to
drop any mention of precipitation in our area until after 02Z.
Mild temps overnight with cloud cover and breeze...lows in the
upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Thu...Cold front will push offshore Friday morning,
with shortwave pushing off the coast by the afternoon. Precip will
quickly taper off from west to east...and will continue highest
chances along the coast early. Much cooler temps expected with
highs ranging from the low to upper 60s...average about 15 degrees
cooler than. Gusty northerly winds behind the front, strongest
along the coast with gusts 30-40 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...Dry regime will persist through the
extended period. Temps are expected to be slightly below normal
for the weekend into early next week, with near normal temps
expected mid next week.
Friday night through Wednesday...Continues to look like dry
weather will prevail across the region for much of next week as
high pressure prevails across the area and the flow remains mostly
out of the north. A dry cold front is forecast to cross the area
Sunday night and reinforce the cool/dry airmass. Thicknesses
values fall quickly behind the front Friday as high pressure
builds across Eastern NC from the north, leading to temps falling
a few degrees below normal into the low to mid 60s Saturday
through Monday. A weak and moisture limited backdoor cold front
will move through late Sunday evening/night with the main impact
to the sensible wx being a reinforcing of the low level northerly
flow behind the front for Monday. The surface ridge shifts east of
the region Tuesday and Wednesday with temps warming to 65 to 70.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Saturday/...
As of 650 PM Thursday, scattered high clouds continue across the
area this evening. As a cold front approaches later tonight, some
MVFR ceilings/vsbys and perhaps a brief period of IFR could
develop along with a broken line of scattered showers. The threat
of any thunder looks to be diminishing at this time. Any
precipitation that does occur should end quickly Friday morning
with VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF cycle. Gusty
northerly winds with gusts to 20-25 knots likely behind the front
on Friday.
Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...Mostly VFR/dry weather expected through
the period. High pressure builds back over the region from the
northwest Friday into Sunday producing VFR aviation conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /through Friday/...
As of 650 PM Thursday, southwest winds continue at 5-10 knots with
high gusts to around 20 knots across the central waters currently.
Strong cold front move across the waters overnight with winds
becoming northerly and increasing to 20-30 knots by Friday
morning. Strongest winds will be Friday, with a few gale force
wind gusts possible. Seas will rapidly build to 7-10 feet north of
Ocracoke and 4-8 feet south. SCA continues for the coastal waters
and sounds...also added the inland rivers for much of the day
Friday with frequent gusts to 25 kt. No major changes to the
forecast at this time.
Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...Poor boating conditions will continue
into Saturday. Seas will slowly subside below 6 ft Saturday
afternoon, due to the persistent northerly fetch despite the
general slow trend of weakening winds Saturday. High pressure
builds in from the west on Sunday producing NW winds 10-15 kt and
seas mostly 2-4 ft. The flow is then forecast to increase to 15 to
20 KT Monday behind a dry cold front with seas building to 3 to 5
ft and some 6 ft seas possible over the outer central waters.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ136-
137.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 7 AM EDT Saturday for
AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for AMZ130-
131.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 5 PM EDT Saturday for
AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 1 PM EDT Saturday for
AMZ156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/DAG
AVIATION...JME/CTC/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
202 PM MST Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure now over northern Sonora will
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area through
Friday, with most favored locations from Tucson north and eastward.
High temperatures will be around early November normals through
Friday, then dry conditions with warmer temperatures will return
area-wide this weekend into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary upper low is now located across far
northern Sonora just to the east of Rocky Point. Gusty east to
southeast winds across much of southeast Arizona continue this
afternoon on the north side of the upper low with a cluster of
strong thunderstorms now across much of East Central Pima County
into Pinal County. The rest of the forecast area is still fairly
quiet as earlier cloud cover for eastern areas delayed increased
solar insolation. Latest convective resolving models including the
HRRR and 12Z UOFA WRF-GFS and WRF-NAM have a pretty good handle on
current trends. Thinking is that shower and thunderstorm coverage
will generally increase this afternoon into early this evening
mainly from Tucson northward. As the upper low begins to very slowly
shift northeast this evening, the best forcing and dynamics will
shift into Graham, Greenlee and Cochise Counties. Given the
favorable vertical shear profile and marginal instability a few of
these storms could be severe this afternoon and this evening with
the main concerns being gusty winds along with large hail. The
storms will generally be moving fast enough that excessive rain is
not a major concern from each individual storm. However, as coverage
becomes more widespread tonight for Graham and Greenlee Counties
with the potential for some training storms, we can`t rule out
localized heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding.
The upper low will continue to shift to the northeast on Friday with
showers and thunderstorms continuing for Graham and Greenlee
Counties with the back edge generally pushing to the east into New
Mexico Friday evening. Drier air will start to move in on Saturday
with still some residual troughing hanging back through the forecast
area with a slight chance of showers still possible for the White
Mountains. Thereafter, dry weather is expected into early next week
as ridging builds back in Monday. However, there is some uncertainty
in the model guidance in the medium range with the pattern aloft
regarding the evolution of a tough to our east but don`t see any
major differences with regard to sensible weather as increased
moisture should remain east of the area. Temperatures will be near
normal through Friday, then warm to above normal levels for early
November later this weekend and into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 6-10k ft AGL thru 04/12Z with gradually decreasing
clouds from southwest to northeast thereafter. Isolated-Scattered
SHRA/TSRA, especially from KTUS north and east into Friday.
Thunderstorm wind gusts to 50 kts possible especially thru 04/03z.
Brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities possible with the heavier showers
and thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorm outflows, breezy ely/sely
surface wind at 10-20 kts with gusts to near 30 kts. Surface wind
diminishing tonight between 04/03Z and 04/06Z, then generally
remaining less than 12 kts thru Friday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected into this evening with the exception of along the
international border, where coverage will be more isolated.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue on
Friday, but mainly northeast of Tucson across Graham and Greenlee
counties. A slight chance of showers continues across the White
Mountains on Saturday, then dry conditions will return area-wide
Sunday into next Thursday. Expect breezy east to southeast 20-foot
winds into this evening, otherwise 20-foot winds will generally be
less than 15 mph except for some afternoon gustiness.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
GL
$$
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