Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/02/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
902 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016
Radar indicates areas of snow showers moving over the mountains,
so no changes to the forecast are necessary for now. Snow shjowers
over the mountains should last for a couple more hours and then
dissipate. Accumulations up to an inch or so will be possible
above 10,000 feet. The plains should remain dry due to the
downsloping effects from the moderate southwest flow aloft.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016
The upper level trough over eastern Nevada this afternoon will
split as it makes its eastward into western Colorado on Wednesday.
The northern branch splits across Wyoming on Wednesday...while the
southern branch closes off as it drops into Arizona. Ahead of the
trough will be a moderate to strong southwesterly flow over the
cwa tonight...with some weak mid level qg ascent aloft. Enough mid
level moisture and lift to produce a chance of some light
rain/snow showers in the mountains. The last few runs of the HRRR
show some light showers along the Urban Corridor from Denver north
to the Cheyenne Ridge mainly this evening. Not much of a mid level
cloud deck at this time...but it is progged to thicken a bit
overnight. Wl add isold pops mainly near the foothills and along
our northern border. Strong southerly winds this aftn will become
north/northeasterly on Wednesday...as a surface high push south
across eastern Colorado. The southerly flow aloft will be weaker
on Wednesday...with just enough moisture fm the south to kick of
some isold to sct showers over zone 34. Otherwise dry...stable and
cooler across the cwa. North/northeast surface winds will persist
across the northeast plains through the day on Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016
A ridge of high pressure aloft will move overhead Wednesday night
to push the upper cutoff low further into AZ. Drier northeasterly
flow aloft will diminish any leftover mountain showers that
evening. With clearing skies, temperatures overnight will be the
coldest they`ve been in almost 2 weeks...yet still not down to
normal readings for this time of year.
Warm and dry weather will prevail Thursday under the ridge. The
cutoff low over AZ will then weaken and starting lifting northeast
towards the forecast area Friday for an increase in moisture. This
will bring a slight chance of showers to the mountains during the
day. The ECMWF is the fastest outlier with the speed of the low
lifting across the state, though its latest run has slowed it down
to be more in line. Have decreased the forecast chances for
precipitation across the area Friday night into
Saturday, especially across the plains, to show the trend of the
models. Snow levels should still remain high around 10 kft.
The upper low should finally lift northeast of the state Sunday
with clearing from the west. Clearing won`t last long however as
another upper trough will swing over the state Monday for another
chance of precipitation across the area. Models differ quite
radically on the depth and direction of the low, with the GFS
having another much colder reinforcing low pushing south on
Tuesday while the ECMWF has the upper ridge re- establishing
itself. For now, will show temperatures warming a few degrees
Tuesday as the Canadian seems to be in line with the EC.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 902 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016
Winds have gone around to north and northwest as high pressure
builds in from Wyoming. The northerly pressure gradients should be
strong enough to keep winds out of the north overnight. Ceilings
and visibilities should remain unrestricted.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Dankers
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Dankers
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
956 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through mid week. A strong
cold front will sweep through area Friday morning, followed by cooler
continental high pressure filling in over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Quiet, dry conditions will persist tonight. A few, light
sprinkles could still make a run for the Georgia coastal zones
after midnight; nothing measurable is expected. Fog parameters
are not nearly as ideal as last night, but still expect some
patches of fog to develop well inland Wednesday morning. Made
minor adjustments to overnight lows in a few spots, but overall
the forecast is in great shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A deep layer ridge hangs on over the region through Wednesday night,
then shifts south and east as the next upper trough moves into the
Ohio River Valley. This upper trough will move into the eastern U.S.
Thursday, then the axis will shift offshore later Friday.
At the surface, high pressure will start off centered northeast of
the area on Wednesday, then shift south over the area on Thursday
and then south Thursday night. By Friday, a strong cold front is
expected to push through the region. Models have not been very
aggressive with producing any significant precipitation with this
front. In fact, the latest ECMWF barely has any precipitation at
all. Have continued slight chance to very low end chance pops,
mainly over SC where best moisture, upper forcing and low level
convergence will combine. Any precip should be short lived and
confined to near the surface front. Clearing, cooler and breezy
later Friday morning and afternoon behind the front.
There is some potential for at least patchy fog Wednesday night
given the surface ridge will be centered east-west over the area.
Thus, have put patchy fog in the grids for Wednesday night.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Thursday night, with
highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. By
Friday, much cooler, with highs likely struggling to reach 70 most
areas. These cooler temperatures, combined with breezy northerly
winds, will make it feel a little brisk.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet weather will ensue through the weekend and into early next
week as heights gradually rise aloft and surface high pressure
settles over the Southeast. Cold air advection will taper through
the weekend, allowing temps to moderate from 10 degrees below normal
Saturday to near normal for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly VFR. Risk for MVFR vsbys will be greatest at KSAV. There
is a possibility for a period of IFR or lower stratus
establishing cigs at either terminal. Latest RAP soundings
suggest any durations would be brief and most cloud layers will
remain scattered. Will therefore not show cigs attm.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Small chance for some flight restrictions
with patchy to scattered fog Wednesday night. VFR conditions expected
to prevail late week through this weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
This Evening and Tonight: High pressure will persist over the area,
helping produce a moderately pinched pressure gradient over all
coastal waters through the evening. Although conditions are expected
to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through the period, we
should see northeast winds gust up to 15-20 kt early before
gradually decreasing to 10-15 kt after midnight. Seas will range
between 3-5 ft, highest in offshore Georgia waters.
Wednesday through Sunday: No highlights expected through Thursday
night. High pressure will shift from northeast of the area Wednesday
to south of the area by later Thursday. Winds east- northeast
Wednesday, becoming variable Thursday, then southwest Thursday
night. Winds generally 15 knots or less and seas 4 feet or less.
By Friday, a strong cold front is expected to push through the
waters, with increasing northerly winds and seas. Expect Small
Craft Advisory conditions to develop behind the front on Friday,
with some wind gusts to near gale force not out of the question.
Seas building rapidly to 6 to 8 feet beyond 20 nm. Small craft
conditions likely to persist through early Saturday.
Improving conditions later Saturday through early next week. No
highlights expected for this period as high pressure builds from the
northwest
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1046 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures will return Wednesday and Thursday
ahead of the next cold front. Expect this stronger cold front to
cross our region from the northwest Thursday night and Friday
bringing temperatures that will be closer to seasonal normal into
the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
of 1035 PM: Latest sfc observations across the Lakelands
indicated only a 1 to 3 degrees. The llvl moisture has been creeping
west across the Piedmont and foothills. Recent 11u-3.9u satellite
product shows a thick band of stratus across the I-40 corridor, down
across the east facing slopes into the GSP area. Dense fog and low
clouds may start to increase through midnight, with areas of fog
steadily increasing across the foothills and Piedmont through the
rest of the night. It appears that passing patches of cirrus, light
winds, and very dry soil will limit the duration of dense fog. If
the ground was damp, I would be considering a Dense Fog Advisory
with this update. However, at this time, I will increase the fog
mention and indicate greater sky cover over the foothills.
As of 750 PM: Latest 11u-3.9u satellite product indicated patches of
low clouds across the northern NC Piedmont and portions of the
Lakelands of SC. The center of sfc high pressure is forecast to
slide south across the western Carolinas by 12z Wednesday. NAM12 and
HRRR indicate that a pocket of llvl moisture will pivot west over
the Piedmont and foothills late tonight, latest midland dewpoint
depression is less that 3 degrees. Both solutions indicate that sfc
condensation pressure deficits will decrease to 0-2 mbs between
9-12z. Formation of low clouds and fog looks likely late tonight
east of the mtns. Forecast soundings indicate that saturated BL air
will mix out shortly after sunrise Wed. After the erosion of fog and
stratus, winds should favor a SW direction and remain less than 5
kts.
At 555 PM: A thinning band of stratus remains over the I-77
corridor. The clouds may linger until 9 pm, then become sct to few.
Temperatures continue to remain in the mid 70s east of the mtns. I
will update the forecast to indicate slower cooling this evening.
At 2 PM Tuesday: An upper ridge will amplify over the Southern and
Central Appalachians tonight and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a surface
ridge will move off the Northeast Cast, but will maintain a presence
over the Carolinas and Georgia. The models are showing only weak
isentropic upglide and upslope flow, mainly over the NC mountains,
but show low level moisture lingering over the area through the
period. This scenario is not very supportive of precipitation, and
with instability lacking, convection is not supported either. Dew
point depressions do seem favorable for widespread fog on Wednesday
morning, but confidence is limited on dense fog outside of mountain
valleys. Temperatures will run well above normal under the upper
ridge.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...the mid- to late-week still looks like it
holds an upper pattern change for us that will bring a return to
more seasonal weather. The culprit is a strong short wave that will
continue to dig as it moves east, displacing the upper ridge over
the Southeast on Wednesday night and shifting/relocating its axis to
the west as the pattern amplifies on Thursday. The short wave is
expected to move across the western Carolinas quickly on Thursday
night. However, the latest model data does not give any more cause
for optimism that previous runs. If anything, forcing looks somewhat
weaker and more suspect than it did yesterday, and the models still
fail to tap the Gulf for moisture. Thus, the drier ECMWF and NAM
continue to be preferred and the fcst will reflect lower precip
chances and amts than what is seen in the GFS solution. The TN
border zones still have the best chance of seeing precip, but even
in those locations we might see only about a quarter inch, hardly
enough to make any dent. Places east of the mtns are not likely to
see anything more than a drop in the bucket if it rains at all. The
slight chance of precip was expanded to include the rest of
northeast GA and Upstate SC, but this should not be taken as a
positive trend of our chances of seeing much rain. These places
might see a passing shower with enough to temporarily knock down the
dust, and that`s it. The short wave is expected to drive a cold
front across the region during the evening/overnight, which will
bring an end to any precip chance by daybreak. The passage of the
front should take something on the order of 10-12 degrees off high
temps for Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...the models continue to agree that our
upper pattern change should yield several days of beautiful
mid-October weather for the weekend across the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia. Too bad it is early November, but at least we are
getting closer to more seasonal temperatures. The center of high
pressure should settle down across the mtns for the weekend and this
should bring temps down cool enough at night to cause some concern
for frost, particularly across the mtns Friday night. However, we
are already way beyond our avg date of first freeze across the mtns
so hopefully this will not cause too many problems. The upper ridge
axis should move overhead on Monday and linger into Tuesday as it
weakens, supporting dry high pressure with temperatures moderating
in the early part of the week. Toward the end of the period, an
upper trof developing somewhere over the Plains may start to
encroach from the west, but confidence is low that it will affect us
by the end of Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Latest 11u-3.9u satellite product indicated
patches of low clouds across the northern NC Piedmont and portions
of the Lakelands of SC. The center of sfc high pressure is forecast
to slide south across the western Carolinas by 12z Wednesday. NAM12
and HRRR indicate that a pocket of llvl moisture will pivot west
over the Piedmont and foothills late tonight, latest midland
dewpoint depression is less that 3 degrees. Both solutions indicate that
sfc condensation pressure deficits will decrease to 0-2 mbs between
9-12z. Formation of low clouds and fog looks likely late tonight
east of the mtns. Forecast soundings indicate that saturated BL air
will mix out shortly after sunrise Wed. After the erosion of fog and
stratus, winds should favor a SW direction and remain less than 5
kts.
Outlook: A cold front arrives Thursday night. Dry high pressure
returns for Friday and lingers through Saturday.
Confidence Table...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT High 100% High 93% High 97% High 100%
KGSP High 95% High 91% High 100% High 100%
KAVL Med 62% Low 44% High 91% High 100%
KHKY Med 69% Med 70% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 95% Med 70% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 80% High 98% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1022 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift east tonight as a weak cold front
approaches from the west. The cold front will gradually
sag south through the region on Wednesday...stalling over
southern New England by evening. Low Pressure will develop
on this boundary over the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night and
will move east into New England on Thursday. Low pressure will
continue east into the maritimes Thursday night. High pressure
will build in from the west Friday. A weak trough of low pressure
will drop south through the region on Saturday. High pressure will
slowly build in from the west Sunday through Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1020 PM...SHRA associated with the weak trough/front are winding
down and weakening across the north, and these should transition
to a period of upslope SHRA, and some SHSN in the higher terrain
during the overnight, but should wind down around daybreak. Temps
in most places are about as cold as they will get tonight, with
slight rising trend expected overnight.
630 pm...Broken line of showers associated with the front moving
into nrn zones attm. This should move through over the next few
hours and then as winds pick up, look for upslope shra and shsn in
a few spots later this evening. To the south, temps should fall
off briefly for a few hours after sunset, but should steady or
start to rise ahead of the front.
Previously...Surface ridge axis remains along the New England
coast this afternoon...and will generally hold there thru the
overnight. Meanwhile a building upper ridge over the SErn CONUS
will send low pressure across James Bay. Ahead of it a warm front
will lift thru the Northeast...bringing scattered showers. These
should mostly impact Nrn zones and the mtns...with it remaining
dry to the S. Given the dry antecedent air mass...some of those
showers may start as snow at the higher elevations but should
gradually change over too. Late tonight the trailing cold front
will move into the mtns...but struggle to push much farther than
that. Upslope clouds and showers will be possible N of the mtns.
Low temps are mostly likely early the evening...as high pressure
still in control and clear skies will allow for a quick drop in
readings. WAA flow will gradually warm things overnight...so a
non-diurnal temp trend is in place for that period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Interesting forecast in store for Wed. S of the cold front a
solidly warmer than normal air mass will advect in on SW flow.
Bufkit forecast soundings suggest mixing will remain shallow under
the influence of strong high pressure to the E...to around the 950
mb level. Mixing temps between 10 and 13 degrees C down to the
surface gives widespread readings in the 60s for much of the area.
The exception will be the far N...where N of the front low
clouds...little mixing...and upslope cooling will keep readings
in the low 50s. The fly in the ointment for warm wx will be cloud
cover. Current hi-res model guidance clears out much of the area
SE of the mtns Wed afternoon for at least part of the day. That
will go a long way to helping temps be fully realized. Latest HRRR
runs also show terrain induced high clouds that could hamper
daytime heating too. High temp forecast is a bit of a mix...with
warmer than guidance in the Srn zones...and cooler than guidance
in the N. The boundary remains stalled over the forecast area Wed
night...and low pressure is forecast to track along it. At this
time it looks like the bulk of the precip will wait until Thu
before reaching the CT River Valley. Increasing cloud cover will
keep temps more mild than recent nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will track east along the stalled frontal
boundary on Thursday...reaching central New England by
Thursday evening. After some early morning sun clouds will
quickly over-spread the region. Expect rain to push into northern
and western zones by early afternoon and will push into eastern
zones through early evening. Highs will range from the mid 40s to
lower 50s north and mid 50s to lower 60s south.
Low pressure will shift northeast into the maritimes Thursday
night. After a rainy evening expect precipitation to taper
off after midnight. Strong northwest flow will clear skies
downwind of the mountains toward daybreak Friday. Lows
overnight will dip into the mid 30s to lower 40s.
High pressure will build in from the west on Friday producing
a strong northwesterly gradient over the region. Will see
sharply cooler temps with highs only in the upper 30s to upper
40s.
High pressure will crest over the region Friday night before
sliding off to the southeast. Weak shortwave dropping
southeast from Canada will bring increasing clouds in northern
zones after midnight. Remainder of the forecast area will see
a mostly clear night. Lows will range from the mid 20s to mid
30s.
Weak shortwave will deepen the upper trough over the region on
Saturday. Shallow surface trough will drop south through the
region during the day bringing clouds but not much else aside
from a few flurries in the mountains. Highs will generally
range through the 40s to near 50.
Clouds will persist over the region Saturday night and Sunday
as upper trough continues to dig in over the northeast. May see
some snow or rain shower activity late Saturday night into
Sunday as trough axis crosses the region but any precip should
be light and spotty. Highs on Sunday will once again range
through the 40s.
Expect diminishing clouds Sunday night as upper trough drifts
off to the southeast and surface high pressure builds in from the
west. First half of next week looking fair with high pressure in
control over the area into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...High pressure remains in control of the area and
widespread VFR conditions are expected into the evening. After
midnight onshore flow may bring in areas of MVFR CIGs to RKD and
AUG areas ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will not
progress very far into the forecast area...but NW flow is expected
N of the mtns. Upslope clouds and MVFR conditions are likely at
HIE...with scattered SHRA. That lingers thru Wed...but the rest of
the forecast area should keep VFR CIGs into Wed night.
Long Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings Thursday...improving to VFR after
midnight. VFR friday and Friday night. Areas of MVFR ceilings
Saturday through Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds thru
Wed night.
Long Term...SCA`s to minimal gales possible Thursday night and
Friday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Legro
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
903 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.UPDATE...
900 PM CDT
For Evening Update...
Only minor changes to going forecast this evening, mainly to add a
little sharper focus to pops mainly across far northwest/northern
IL later tonight. Had updated earlier to account for some mid-
level sprinkles which developed during the afternoon, though those
have faded as anticipated by mid-evening.
Evening surface analysis depicts low pressure moving east across
James Bay, with a cold front trailing into southeast WI/northwest
IL and southeast IA. As indicated above, did have a few mid-level
ACCAS sprinkles earlier, induced by warm/moist upglide on
southwesterly flow and steep mid-level lapse rates on the order of
7-7.5 C/km per RAP analysis. While an isolated elevated shower or
two can`t be ruled out along the baroclinic zone through the
remainder of the evening hours, the main threat of precipitation
appears to be after midnight during the pre-dawn hours as forcing
strengthens in response to the approach of a mid-level short wave
trough currently noted over the Central Plains (Kansas-Nebraska)
per GOES vapor imagery and 00z raob analysis. High-res guidance is
in very good agreement in developing showers and thunderstorms
across southern IA by 06z/1 am CDT ahead of this feature,
eventually spreading across northwest IL and the IL/WI border
region by morning. Based on good clustering of guidance solutions
have adjusted pops downward across the southeastern half of the
cwa, with a sharper gradient between a dry southeast and the
greater potential across the far north/northwest. May very well
see the best focus remain a little farther north Wednesday
morning, closer to the IL/WI line and into southern WI, but have
held off lowering pops in the 12-15z period without new 00z
guidance to look at yet. Otherwise, tweaked sky cover a bit per
current satellite trend, but made no other significant forecast
changes in the near term.
Digital grids, zfp, lfp all updated and available.
Ratzer
&&
.SHORT TERM...
216 PM CDT
Through Tonight...
Main forecast challenges are with precip trends later tonight,
with showers and thunder becoming possible across northwest
Illinois after midnight.
In the near term, surface boundary continues to approach the CWA,
however, dry and quiet conditions persist this afternoon. Expect
these conditions to continue for the remainder of the afternoon
and into much of the evening. With any upstream precip development
likely not occurring until later this evening, precip chances
won`t begin to increase until after the midnight time frame. While
forcing increases aloft tonight, focus will be along surface
trough and boundary situated across the CWA. Most guidance fairly
consistent with this initial development occurring across Missouri
and Iowa later this evening, and then shifting northeast with
time. While chances do increase, highest chances at this time are
for areas along and west of I39. While instability increases do
think thunder will become more probable with time, however, likely
not as widespread than on Wednesday.
Rodriguez
&&
.LONG TERM...
229 PM CDT
Wednesday through Tuesday...
Showers and storms will be the main story Wednesday. The big
question is will areas south of I-80 see some strong storms
Wednesday afternoon that may produce gusty winds?
The answer depends on Wednesday morning. Most guidance members
suggest the majority of precip will stay north of I-80 and maybe
even I-88 through Wed morning. This should allow areas south of I-
80 to develop a decent amount of CAPE for November. Cloud cover
should keep CAPE values less than 1000 J/kg despite what the over
rambunctious NAM is forecasting. Forecast soundings are rather
saturated through the column, and shear drops from around 40 kt to
20 kt throughout the aftn. Therefore, thinking widespread storms
will form and a few will become strong/frisky and produce gusty
winds. The column looks too moist for hail formation. However, if
precip is over I-80 in the morning, the atmosphere will likely be
too worked over to see strong storms Wed aftn.
Overall, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across
the warning area Wed afternoon and then push southeast as the front
and upper level trough move through. Have concerns that areas that
see multiple rounds of thunderstorms may have flooding. Pwat values
are forecast to be around 1.6 inches which is extremely high for
this time of year. November`s average Pwat value is 0.5 inches.
Storm motion looks decent at around 30 kt but multiple rounds of
storms could produce a lot of water very quickly.
A stout upper level ridge moves in behind this system resulting in
dry conditions and slight above normal temps through early next
week.
The next chance of precip will be next Tues or Wed. The ECMWF has
precip and a trough axis moving through Tues while the GFS is 24
hours later with the trough and precip.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
647 pm...Multiple forecast concerns this period including
possible thunderstorms Wednesday morning and again Wednesday
afternoon... wind directions with a shift northeast Wednesday
afternoon and lowering vis/cigs Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Instability aloft has led to some weak showers...mainly producing
virga early this evening. These should weaken this evening. Not
expecting much precip to reach the surface so no mention with this
forecast.
A weak frontal boundary will move into northern IL this evening.
Light southerly winds will become light and variable and may shift
to light northeasterly...though confidence is low. This boundary
is expected to remain stationary across northern IL into Wednesday
afternoon...when low pressure will move across central IL. The
front will then move south of the terminals...shifting winds to
the northeast. Prior to that...wind directions at the Chicago
terminals will be problematic...possibly starting easterly
Wednesday morning...turning back southerly by early afternoon and
then shifting northeast. Confidence regarding specific wind
directions...especially at ord/dpa...is very low though speeds
during this time may remain below 10kts. Speeds will likely
increase into the 10-15kt range late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening behind the front.
The first wave of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will
likely remain generally north of the terminals overnight...
possibly affecting rfd. A period of showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms are possible mid/late Wednesday morning. After
this time...confidence for thunderstorms is fairly low at the
terminals. Guidance in general agreement for a line of
thunderstorms developing from northern MO into central IL and
with continued showers or periods of rain possible into Wednesday
evening.
Cigs are expected to remain vfr into the overnight hours...but
eventually will lower to mvfr Wednesday morning. If a more steady
northeast wind developed overnight...then there could be some ifr
cigs at ord/mdw but confidence is fairly low. Cigs will likely be
ifr north of the frontal boundary Wednesday morning and as that
front moves south...ifr and possibly lifr cigs should spread
across the terminals. If this front sags south of ord/dpa earlier
then currently expected...then ifr cigs will likely develop sooner
as well. Lower cigs will begin to lift late Wednesday evening as
drier air begins to affect into the region. cms
&&
.MARINE...
229 PM CDT
A cold front is halfway down the lake and will slowly continue south
stalling just south of the lake. Southwest winds become east
overnight as high pressure spreads over the lake. A weak low passes
over the southern end of the lake tomorrow and tomorrow night. Winds
become north 15-25 kt behind the low Wednesday night into Thursday.
High pressure builds in Thursday night. Southwest winds increase to
15-25 kt, especially over the north half of the lake, Friday as low
pressure passes over southern Canada. Winds weaken over the weekend
and become south early next week.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
918 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will drift across the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeastern states tonight and Wednesday. A warm front will lift
north through the area during the Wednesday through Wednesday night
time frame. Low pressure passing through New England will drag a
cold front through the region Thursday night. High pressure will
build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this weekend and build
east through the start of the new work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Skies have clouded over across the area as some low level
moisture and weak lift behind the departing high have influenced
the weather. A decent inversion across the area will likely
persist overnight, so the clouds will be slow to thin. Eventually
towards dawn there will be some dissipation of the clouds, so we
have added some light fog in the fcst for the suburb areas. Low
temperatures will be seasonable cool with readings dropping into
the low 40s north and mid to upper 40s elsewhere. Winds will be
light from the south or southwest. Temperatures were raised due to
cloudcover for the overnight hours with the evening updates. Also,
latest HRRR and RAP model runs show some sprinkles potentially
developing toward daybreak across Southern Delmarva, this has been
added to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
After a little morning fog, another dry and mild day is expected
Wednesday. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny and temperatures will
head into the upper 60s to low 70s across the area. Winds will be
mostly light from the SW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Synoptic Overview...The period starts with a warm front to the
north of the forecast area with surface high pressure in control
from the the northern mid- Atlantic down through the lower
Mississippi Valley. A cold front will be working through the
eastern Great Lakes. On Thursday, a mid- level trough sharpens
over the Great Lakes and a cold front tracks towards the Eastern
Seaboard. The cold front will move off the coast Thursday night.
By 12z Friday, the cold front will be well offshore. To our west,
broad high pressure will dominate much of the country from coast
to coast. On Saturday, mid-level energy dives down across Ontario
and Quebec and reaches the Great Lakes on Saturday. In response, a
surface trof or weak cold front will develop and move through the
region on Sunday. High pressure at the surface and aloft will
begin to spread east across the northern mid-Atlantic on Monday
and be centered over the forecast area on Tuesday.
Temperatures...for reference, normals for PHL are in the lower 60s
and middle 40s. The period starts with well above normal
temperatures for Wednesday night and Thursday. Temperatures will
cool behind the cold front and level off at or below normal on
Friday and persist there through Tuesday.
Precipitation...One shot of precipitation through the extended, that
is, with the cold front. Isolated thunder is possible. Although we
could see a short wave/surface trough move through the region over
the weekend, it looks dry at the moment.
Winds...Southwest winds on Wednesday night and Thursday will become
northwest and gusty Thursday night and Friday behind the cold front.
For the remainder of the forecast period, persistent northwest to
west winds will prevail.
Impacts...With increasing dewpoints ahead of the cold front, fog is
possible Thursday morning. The region could see some thunderstorms
late in the day on Thursday, but at the moment, the threat of any
damaging impacts are minimal. Behind the cold front, northwest winds
will increase Thursday night and Friday and be most noticeable at
the coast. Frost is possible, especially north on Saturday, Monday,
and Tuesday mornings of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Overnight...A batch of clouds across ern PA and Delmarva
continues to march ewd. We do expect cigs to remain in the MVFR
and VFR range with bases mostly 025-035. Winds will remain mostly
from the south or southwest under 10 knots overnight. The guidance
is rather stubborn with regards to any clearing overnight. It does
offer bkn-ovc with higher bases, but with the inversion in pace
and increasing low level moisture, I will just keep bkn-ovc with
the present bases for much of the night. There could be some light
fog away from the Delaware valley later tonight.
Wednesday...VFR with few-sct low clouds and light sw winds
expected.
OUTLOOK...
Wednesday night through Thursday morning...Sub-VFR conditions
possible in low clouds and fog. SW winds less than 5 KT.
Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions in
SHRA. Isolated TSRA possible as well. Winds become NW 10-15 KT with
gusts to 20 KT Thursday night.
Friday...VFR. NW winds 10-20 KT with 25 KT gusts possible.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR with W to NW winds, general less than 15
kt.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure that was across the waters will move eastward
tonight. The pressure gradient behind the high will favor a mostly
SE to S wind tonight and a S or SW wind on Wednesday. Wind speeds
will be mostly 5 to 10 knots through the period. Seas on the ocean
mostly 2-3 ft and 1-2 ft across Delaware bay. Fair weather
expected both tonight and Wednesday.
OUTLOOK...
Wednesday through Thursday morning...Sub-SCA conditions expected.
VSBY restrictions possible Wednesday night.
Thursday afternoon...WSW winds increasing and gusting to 20 to 25
KT.
Thursday night through Friday...NW winds behind the cold front
gusting to 30-35 KT. Gales are possible. Seas on the ocean will
build to 4-6 FT.
Saturday and Sunday...No marine headlines expected at this time.
Persistent W to NW winds, mainly in the 10 to 20 kt range.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the high temperature records for Thursday, November 3:
ACY...81/2003 PHL...80/1990 ILG...78/2003 ABE...79/2003
TTN...80/2003 GED...80/1982 RDG...79/2003 MPO...73/2003
October averaged 1.1 to 3.3 degrees above normal, throughout the CWA.
ABE averaged 55.8 degrees or 3.3 degrees above the normal of 52.5.
That`s the 16th warmest in the period of record dating back to 1922.
Allentown has also experienced its 9th driest October on record,
1.23". The driest October at Allentown was .09 inches in both 1963
and 1924.
PHL averaged 60.4 degrees or 2.9 degrees above the normal of 57.5.
That makes it the 17th warmest October in the period of record
dating back to 1874.
The October average temperatures are mainly noteworthy in that the
excessive monthly warmth of July, August, September eased in
October. This years October positive departures are generally warmer
than October 2015, by a degree or more.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Kruzdlo
Near Term...Gaines/O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Kruzdlo
Aviation...Gaines/Kruzdlo/O`Hara
Marine...Kruzdlo/O`Hara
Climate...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
915 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be centered just off the Southeast coast and
extend across the Southeast states through Thursday. A cold front
will move southeastward through the region Thursday night. Cool
high pressure will build in from the north beginning Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 915 PM Tuesday...
The stratus extending across the northwest half of the forecast area
is undergoing a slow but steady erosion and north-northwestward
retreat this evening, as low level moist isentropic upglide
gradually fades. A portion of the cool surface ridge extending into
the area from the NE will break off and settle over the western and
central Carolinas overnight, capped by a warm 850 mb anticyclone and
ensuring fairly deep surface-based stability and a weak wind field
overnight, focused on our western sections. Recent HRRR runs show
the stratus continuing to retreat overnight, leaving these clouds
just over the VA border area, far NW Piedmont, and back into the
Foothills. Formation of areas of dense fog is also expected toward
daybreak in the far western forecast area, reasonable considering
the lightening winds and decreasing dewpoint depression. And the 00z
GSO sounding shows sufficient moisture beneath a strong inversion
based around 915 mb for such fog/stratus. Have adjusted sky cover a
bit to focus overcast skies and fog late tonight through Wed morning
in the west, with less cloudiness across the east and rest of the
southern CWA. This fog/stratus in our far west may hang on longer
than usual Wed morning, based on the apparent lack of mechanisms to
disperse it horizontally (due to high stability and very light winds
through the lowest few thousand ft) or vertically (an almost 10F
capping inversion). Based on current dewpoints, have adjusted highs
upward slightly, to lower-mid 50s areawide (warmest NW). -GIH
Earlier discussion from 257 PM Tuesday: High pressure centered over
New England will build south into the Carolinas tonight. Meanwhile
aloft, a strong mid/upper level anticyclone over the Deep
South/North GOM will extend north into the Mid-Atlantic States.
Extensive area of stratus that extends down much of the Mid-Atlantic
Region south into Savanna River Valley will be slow to lift and
scatter out/diminish late this afternoon and into the early evening,
eroding on the western/southwestern flanks as 925mb veers around to
swly, ceasing any further weak isentropic lift.
General model consensus is for mostly clear or fair skies(thin high
clouds spilling atop the upper ridge) by 03-06z. If this does
happen, we could see pockets/areas of fog develop, especially across
the western Piedmont where sfc dewpoints a bit higher. Lows in the
lower to mid 50s. -CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 257 PM Tuesday...
Any fog that develops should mix out fairly
quickly Wednesday morning with mostly sunny skies with a smattering
of cirrus across the area. The surface high gets suppressed just
south of the area by the afternoon with a pre-frontal sfc trough
taking shape in the lee of the southern Appalachians, allowing sfc
winds to become west-southwesterly. Afternoon thicknesses are
progged to rise to similar levels that we saw this past weekend,
between 1395-1400 meters, which will support a very mild afternoon.
Highs 75 to 80. Mild overnight lows as well with lows in the upper
50s/near 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...
High pressure will be suppressed south of the area, with westerly
flow across the area on Thursday. This will result in another warm
day with highs reaching the lower 80s...10 to 15 degrees above
normal. Westerly flow will effectively cut off moisture advection
ahead of the strong cold front approaching rapidly out of the Ohio
Valley Thursday evening. The upper dynamics and strong low level
convergence will be phased nicely...just won`t have enough moisture
available to squeeze out more than a tenth of an inch or so from the
showers which will accompany the surface front. The front will reach
the western piedmont towards sunset and race across central NC, and
will reach the coast by sunrise. Given such vigorous forcing, would
expect showers to be fairly numerous and will raise PoPs up just a
bit as well as bring them into the west a little earlier on Thursday
evening. Skies will be largely clear and cold air advection will be
cranked up by sunrise on Friday morning, with morning mins ranging
from the upper 40s west to lower 50s east.
Low level thicknesses crash around 60 meters...indicative of highs
15 to 20 degrees cooler than Thursday...in the low to mid 60s.
Guidance winds seem low in light of the strong gradient and will
raise afternoon gusts to at least 20 mph. Skies will be largely
clear as the dry and cool airmass settles in for the remainder of
the extended, with highs each day in the 60s after morning lows a
few degrees either side of 40.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 820 PM Tuesday...
24 Hour TAF period: MVFR stratus continues to hold at the Triad
sites as well as at KRDU. All indications are that this should
continue for a while with erosion slow to occur on satellite
imagery. Have kept MVFR stratus in the TAFs through 6z for Triad
sites although RDU should break out to VFR sooner. If cloud cover
clears out quick enough, there should be an opportunity for fog at
the Triad terminals after 11z. If the clouds hang on through the
morning, which is a possibility, then chances for fog are much less
likely. Non-Triad sites should experience some MVFR visibilities
closer to daybreak. Any fog or lower visibilities that do occur
should return to VFR around 14z. Afterward skies should be mostly
clear with very light winds through the remainder of the TAF period.
Long Term: VFR conditions should prevail until Thursday evening when
a frontal system will begin to cross the area from northwest to
southeast. Precipitation and sub-VFR conditions will be possible
with this cold front. VFR conditions should return on Friday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/cbl
SHORT TERM...cbl
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...Ellis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
302 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
No real highlights for the short term forecast period. The past
few HRRR iterations have been consistent with bringing some light
radar returns up into our far southeast counties; mainly Dickey,
LaMoure, and possibly McIntosh later this morning. Through
Wednesday, the progressive pattern will quickly transition from
near zonal flow to northwest flow aloft. With clearing skies and
widespread highs in the 60s, expect more mild, dry, and pleasant
conditions through the afternoon and evening hours.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
The long term forecast features more of the same, at least for
the first part of the period. West coast ridging will slowly make
its way over towards Montana and North Dakota by Friday with
occasional flattening due to dry shortwaves/possible frontal
boundaries. It is important to note that there will be some
minimum relative humidity values in the low to mid 20 percent
range in the extreme southwest on Thursday. However, with light
winds forecast, there are no fire weather concerns at this point.
By Sunday, we experience a bit of a pattern change, as a west
coast trough begins to move into the region and we transition to a
southwest flow regime. By Sunday night into Monday, The GFS and
the ECMWF are in agreement of developing precipitation mainly in
the eastern part of the state. As this feature is still quite a
long way out, we will have to keep tabs on how the wave evolves
and where the track trends.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Expect VFR conditions all terminals through the 06Z period.
MVFR ceilings across southern Canada should remain along or north
of the Canadian border this morning, so kept low CIGS out of
KISN-KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
352 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through mid week. A strong
cold front will sweep through area Friday morning, followed by
cooler continental high pressure filling in over the weekend and
remaining in control through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A strong upper ridge will persist today while surface high
pressure continues to expand over the eastern Carolinas and into
the western Atlantic. A weak coastal trough will reside off the
GA coast through tonight, potentially squeezing out an isolated
shower over the coastal waters. Otherwise we expect variable
cloudiness and another warm day with highs in the lower 80s.
Tonight the main concern will be fog potential. Crossover temps
will be in the low to mid 60s. With the surface high expanding
over the area, winds should go light by mid evening and skies
will clear out, allowing for good radiational cooling and temps
to fall into the 50s. At least patchy fog is likely, potentially
becoming more widespread and dense in spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layer ridging will weaken during the day Thursday as an upper-
level trough over the Midwest begins to dig rapidly on its journey
across the Eastern US. Mid-level subsidence will ensure that
Thursday remains rain-free, but a jet streak around the base of the
approaching trough could lead to increased upper level cloud cover
Thursday afternoon/evening.
Low pressure crossing New England will undergo cyclogenesis Thursday
as is drags a cold front across the Tennessee Valley. Given the
extremely positive tilt to the upper-level trough and rather
meridional flow ahead of the front, minimal moisture advection will
occur in the warm sector. Thus, only slight chance POPs in the
forecast for most of southeast Georgia, with low-end chance POPs for
mainly the Charleston Tri-County area immediately ahead of the
front, which will before forced through our area by robust high
pressure building behind it late morning/midday Friday. GEFs plumes
show most members at 0.01 inch or less of QPF for our area Friday
morning, confirming that any precip that does occur will be very
light and progressive.
Cold air advection will arise rapidly behind the front, and a
noticeably drier and cooler air mass will fill in through the
afternoon and evening hours Friday. Gusty winds can be expected,
especially near the coast and lakes where warmer surface temps will
allow the stronger northerly flow to mix more readily.
Dry and cool continental high pressure will continue to build in
Friday night and Saturday, resulting in temps 5 to 10 degrees below
normal and quite conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tranquil, fall-like weather will continue for the first half of the
week as heights gradually rise aloft and surface high pressure
settles over the southern Appalachian Mountains. Temps will be
rather seasonable through the period, with plenty of sunshine on
tap. Our next shot at any precip could come as early as middle of
next week as a cold front approaches the area.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly VFR. Risk for MVFR vsbys will be greatest at KSAV. There
is a possibility for a period of IFR or lower stratus
establishing cigs at either terminal. Latest RAP soundings
suggest any durations would be brief and most cloud layers will
remain scattered. Will therefore not show cigs attm.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Brief restrictions are possible with isolated showers
immediately ahead of a cold front that will cross the terminals
Friday morning. Expect gusty winds to fill in behind the front
Friday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Deep layered high pressure building across the waters will
result in weakening winds/seas through tonight.
Thursday through Monday: Mainly quiet conditions will ensue through
Thursday night. A cold front may bring some showers across the
waters Friday morning. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly during
day Friday as gusty north/northeasterly winds fill in quickly behind
the departing cold front. A small craft advisory will likely be
needed beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend, with some
gusts to near gale force possible mainly for the offshore waters
where mixing will occur more easily. Windswell will build rapidly
to 6 to 8 feet beyond 20 nm during this time.
The gradient will gradually weaken through the weekend and into the
early part of next week as high pressure builds inland.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/JRL
MARINE...CEB/JRL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
402 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front just to our north will stall today as low pressure
moves northeast out of the central Plains to the central Great
Lakes. The low will continue northeast tonight dragging the cold
front through the region overnight into Thursday. High pressure
will build in for Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds have increased across the area overnight as moderately
moist southwest flow overruns the region. Feel that as the better
overrunning moves north of the area today we should be able to get
a few peaks of sun. Radar shows a few very light rain showers
spotting the area west of roughly a KLPR-KMFD line. The HRRR has
this drifting ENE through the morning so will have a slight chance
pop west before dawn and then parts of Northeast Ohio and into
NWRN PA through the morning. Otherwise most of the precip will
remain north of the area today closer to the cold front that will
be stalling before it reaches into the area...at least today. Best
chance for precip will be northwest and northeast mid/late
afternoon. Another mild day is expected with highs in the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight should begin with the cold front stalled just to our
north...held by approaching low pressure from the central Plains.
After midnight this low moves off to the east/northeast of the
lakes allowing the cold front to swing SSE across the area. Expect
rain to move into northwest Ohio mainly early evening with rain
likely reaching the Cleveland area 10pm-midnight and the remainder
of the area soon after. Models consistent in bringing deep
moisture through the area in advance of an upper trough digging
into/across the Great Lakes so will have cat pops everywhere.
Thursday morning the front should still be in the area roughly
near a KGKJ to KMNN line. Will begin with cat pops all but the
western third of the area. Do expect drying from the west as the
surface low reaches New England and the cold front quickly drops
southeast of the area through the morning so for the afternoon
will have the west half dry and the east half dropping through
chance pop numbers. Will need to leave a slight chance in for the
northeast for flow off lakes Huron and Erie but Bufkit forecast
sounding really do not support a true lake effect scenario. Friday
and Saturday expect dry conditions as high pressure builds. Highs
upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday...in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Friday and 55 to 60 Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Little change in the long term forecast. Both models have high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes by daybreak Sunday. The high
drifts over the Eastern Lakes on Monday setting up a weak southerly
flow. Gfs continues to be a little cooler than the ECMWF so split
the difference and leaned toward the superblend on temps...which has
temps nearly seasonal. The ECMWF continues to be faster with the
next cold front...moving it across the area on Tuesday. The GFS is
slower...not moving the front through until late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. For now will keep low chance pops going Tuesday
into Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Front is north of Lake Erie...but expect some mvfr/low vfr stratus
to develop the morning as a weak low level jet moves across the
area overnight. Will continue to mention showers "vicinity" for
the KERI forecast for this morning. Ceilings should improve to
VFR everywhere later this afternoon in the warm sector. Rain
showers will develop Wednesday night as the front sags south across
the forecast area as a cold front.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible later Wednesday night into Thursday in
showers then again Thursday night into Friday for northeast
Ohio/northwest Pennsylvania.
&&
.MARINE...
A front north of Lake Erie will push south across the lake early
Thursday morning. A small craft advisory will likely be needed as
winds turn to the north to Northeast and increase to 10 to 20 knots.
Conditions will gradually improve from the West on Friday as high
pressure moves across the upper Ohio Valley. Winds again turn to
the Northwest Saturday as a weaker cold front moves across the lake.
High pressure quickly builds in on Sunday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
302 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Predawn water vapor loop showed a upper trough from central MT
through western WY, UT to the Desert Southwest. A shortwave was
tracking east across CO producing a corridor of QG lift from
northern CO northeast across western NE. Radars detected a band
of showers with a few embedded tstorms moving east across the
NE panhandle, with more isolated lighter showers over Albany
County. HRRR model progs decreasing precipitation from west to
east early this morning. Skies were mostly cloudy to cloudy with
temperatures in the 30s and 40s.
No sensible weather is foreseen during the short term. Upper
trough to the west shifts east across the CWA today with cool
dry northwest flow. High temperatures will be seasonable for
early November with 50s to lower 60s. A upper ridge over the
Intermountain West translates east and amplifies over the Rocky
Mountains and plains Thursday through Friday. A closed upper low
will remain nearly stationary over AZ. High temperatures will
warm 10 degrees Thursday with 60s to lower 70s. Similar high
temperatures are forecast Friday. Winds will generally remain
light due to relatively weak pressure gradients.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Mild conditions will prevail through the period with mainly dry
weather expected overall. A cutoff low over Arizona will drift
northeastward through Sunday while weakening and eventually
opening up as it gets picked up by an approaching shortwave that
will move into the Pacific NW Sunday. This upper low looks to
bring some showers to mainly the mtns Saturday night and Sunday.
Models now in fairly good agreement in handling this system, moving
it east of the CWA by late Sunday. A weak Pacific front will pass
by Sunday evening bringing cooler temps for Monday and Tuesday.
Upper ridging building over the region early next week will bring
dry conditions to the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2016
VFR expected over the terminals through the period. Some showers
early this morning over parts of the NE panhandle with clearing
conditions expected across the area as the morning progresses.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Today will be cooler in the wake of a cold front. Minimum humidities
will range from 25 to 35 percent. A ridge of high pressure will build
over the Rockies and plains later this week with warmer temperatures
and drier conditions. Minimum humidities will range from 15 to 25
percent. Winds will remain light with gusts below 25 mph. A weak
disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers to the southeast
Wyoming mountains this weekend.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
410 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 410 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2016
Short Range...
Forecast is not as clear cut as yesterday at this time owing mainly
to a stable layer aloft which is capping convection within the warm
sector plus the uncertainty of a h7 shortwave progged to move
through KS/MO.
A quasi-stationary boundary extends from a weak surface low over
northeast KS along the MO/IA border. This boundary will likely move
little until this evening when a shortwave trough drops southeast
through MN/IA. Until then our rain chances will be driven by 1)
increasing moist isentropic ascent within a conditionally unstable
airmass 2) a h7 shortwave trough tracking ene through KS and 3)
modest but increasing layered frontogenetic forcing during the
afternoon hours. With the above in mind have focused PoPs across the
northern half of the CWA this morning with a gradual uptick towards
the noon hour as PVA ahead of the KS shortwave approaches. Short
range convective allowing progs seem on the same page in ramping
PoPs up to likely category within a corridor centered from KC area
through Macon as convection expands eastward. Moderate ascent
provided by the right rear quad of a departing upper level jet will
support the convection.
As noted earlier the instability will be conditional and predicated
on how much stratus advects north from OK. Current surface obs do
show stratus forming over central/south central OK but nowhere near
as expansive as previous and current runs of the NAM and RAP had
forecast. So this calls into question as to how much stratus will be
present through early afternoon. Should the stratus not be as
extensive nor linger long enough then MUCAPEs in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range are likely. This combined with 30-40kt of 0-6km shear could
support strong, even a few severe, storms. The primary threat would
be from marginally severe hail. Plus it`s the day of our winter
weather seminar so of course severe storms will occur.
Convection will end from north to south this evening. Inspection of
BUFR soundings also suggests drizzle could form by the pre-dawn
hours of Thursday morning south of the MO River.
Extended Range...
Sensible weather looks quite benign with above normal temperatures
through the weekend as initial subsidence in the wake of the
departing shortwave and a building upper level ridge just west of
the CWA provide a dome of protection from any precipitation from
forming.
As we enter the start of a new week attention will turn on whether
or not a cut-off upper low over the desert southwest will dislodge
and lift northeast. History says that whenever this feature finally
ejects it will track northwest of the initial model forecasts. So
confidence in the blended model output low chance PoPs on Tuesday is
low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE NOV 1 2016
A warm frontal boundary has moved into northern MO developing some
isolated showers north of that boundary with a ceiling near 5k ft over
most of the region. This boundary will push back through after sunset
more as a cold frontal boundary which will form up MFVR to IFR
ceilings at all of the TAF locations. This ceiling will stick around
most of the forecast period with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the late afternoon into the evening. The
precipitation will move through as a line of showers and
thunderstorms from the NW to SE clearing the TAF locations by
03/02-03Z which is seen with a wind shift to the NW as well.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...MJ
Aviation...Barham/73
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
353 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
500 mb short wave trough moving into western Manitoba down into
far eastern Montana. There is a weak cold front with this feature
which will move east across the today with light northwest winds
behind it. Ahead of this short wave trough is an area of mid level
moisture and radar shows a few weak returns mainly in the Huron to
Watertown SD area this early morning. HRRR does show some weak
pcpn chances into far SE ND and WC MN parts of my fcst area today
so matched up with surrounding offices and included a low pop
there. HRRR is about the only model to show precip as the global
models are pretty dry. In addition behind this short wave trough
is a weak disturbance that may bring a shower or two to far
southern Manitoba today and into lake of the woods region this
evening. have a low pop for this in LOW region. Otherwise the mid
and high level moisture ahd of this trough will spread east with
some clearing into parts of eastern ND this aftn...though some
stratocu may drop southeast in cold advection behind the front
into far NE ND and NW MN today. Net result are temps a tad cooler
in the far north today with mid-upr 40s with low-mid 50s south.
Skies clearing tonight with a light south-southwest wind.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Upper ridge builds into the area Thu-Fri north of an upper low
that will drop into the southwestern U.S. This will bring milder
air and a pretty dry airmass for a couple of sunny days.
For the Saturday through Tuesday period...
Long wave pattern doesnt change much. Long wave trough remains over
the northeastern Pacific and a long wave ridge remains over western
Canada with another long wave trough over eastern Canada. Upper
ridge may shift a little farther north during the period. Also long
wave trough over eastern Canada shifts a little east through the
period.
The GFS was faster than the ECMWF but by the end of the period the
ECMWF was faster. No trend was noted in the last few model
runs...models were vacillating. Will blend the models. Short wave
upper trough expected to move through around Mon.
No change to high temperatures for Sat. Increased temps for Sun and
Mon by one to two degrees and decrease temps about a degree for Tue
from yesterdays forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
All sites are VFR. A few of the models bring some lower ceilings
into the northern forecast area for a brief period tomorrow
morning. Some lower ceilings could be possible behind the surface
trough axis currently moving across southern Manitoba, but at this
point think they will stay north of the TAF sites and will keep
all locations VFR throughout the period. South winds less than 12
kts will shift to the southwest then west/northwest, then become
light and variable by the end of the period.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Hoppes/Riddle
AVIATION...JR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
327 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Today-tonight:
Surface boundary in far northwest section of forecast area will
slowly drift southeast through through this afternoon and clear
the forecast area tonight. Precipitation chances may ramp up a bit
during the day, but best chances will be closer to 0000 UTC and
into the evening in Southeast KS, where surface boundary, trailing
shortwave and deeper low level moisture all intersect. Drier air
will spill across the area on Thursday. Temperatures will likely
be limited at most areas by extensive clouds, but GFS, NAM, RUC and
ECMWF all suggest a small dry slot will develop ahead of front in
the afternoon that could allow a bit more recovery in parts of
South Central KS.
Thursday-Friday:
Both days a bit of a challenge with weak cold air advection on
Thursday and recirculated cool air on Friday and dry air and
abundant sunshine both days. Edged temperatures up a degree or so,
but not sure it was enough. Thicknesses would support maxes in the
mid 70s. -Howerton
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Same broken record continues this period with medium range models
still struggling with pattern change. Still have fair agreement
that surface high will dominate the eastern half of US with cut
off upper energy meandering across the plains. This is followed
quickly by a stronger trough moving into the plains on Monday.
Persistent moisture will stream north up the high plains in the
return flow. This could lead to periodic precipitation chances for
far western sections for much of this period. Potential for
extensive clouds for all areas over the weekend. Best chances
area wide for rain are on Monday/Monday night with shortwave
passage. Considerable run to run and model to model variations
result in lower than normal confidence for this period. -Howerton
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
Low level moisture will increase and give way to low clouds in the
MVFR/IFR range for late tonight and Wednesday morning. Meanwhile
the frontal boundary will begin to sag slowly southward across the
region for this afternoon into tonight. A few showers/storms will
be possible for late tonight and tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 77 53 72 45 / 20 20 0 0
Hutchinson 74 50 71 42 / 10 10 0 0
Newton 74 51 70 45 / 20 20 0 0
ElDorado 76 54 71 45 / 30 30 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 79 55 72 46 / 30 30 0 0
Russell 69 44 71 40 / 20 0 0 0
Great Bend 70 45 72 40 / 20 10 0 0
Salina 72 48 72 41 / 20 10 0 0
McPherson 73 49 71 41 / 20 10 0 0
Coffeyville 78 59 72 46 / 50 60 0 0
Chanute 76 57 71 45 / 60 60 0 0
Iola 75 56 71 45 / 60 60 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 77 59 72 46 / 50 60 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CDJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
337 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
The shower activity across Nwrn Neb should exit the fcst area by
18z this morning. There is a fairly organized area of rain near
Cheyenne which has to move northeast before clearing can develop
from northwest to southeast today.
Per KLBF UA sounding...the RAP model shows high cirrus and moisture
at the 350-250mb layer exiting the forecast by 00z this evening.
This will produce clearing from the northwest to southeast today.
Pacific high pressure across the Intermountain region will build in
tonight with clear skies and light drainage winds developing.
The temperature forecast today and tonight uses a blend of guidance
plus bias correction for highs in the low to mid 60s today. Bias
correction cools the highs a degree or two from the operational
numbers. Lows tonight fall into the 30s with upper 20s across the
Wrn Sandhills.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
An upper level blocking pattern will dominate the weather for at
least the next week across the nation. Our portion of the country
will be under persistent upper level ridging, with troughing along
both coasts. With the the ridging, expect little change in the
mild to warm temperatures through early next week. Highs will
mostly be in the 60s, but lower 70s are likely both Thursday and
Friday. Part of the reason for the "cool down" into the 60s for
the weekend and early next week, is due to a cut off upper low
trapped within the ridge that will slowly meander from the four
corners toward the central portions of the country. This will
bring an increase in cloud cover, along with a chance for showers.
Enough instability present to continue the mention of thunder as
well. Southerly flow both at the surface and aloft ahead of the
system will help to increase precipitable water amounts to around
one inch. So plenty of moisture available, but with only weak
dynamics not expecting widespread precipitation and will keep
chances fairly low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
Abundant mid and high level cloudiness will persist overnight and
through midday on Wednesday. Ceilings tonight will range from
10000 to 12000 FT AGL and will rise up to 20000 FT AGL by midday
Wednesday. Expect clearing skies by Wednesday evening. Light rain
showers will be possible especially west of the KVTN terminal
overnight and some sprinkles are possible in the vicinity of the
terminal toward 12z Wednesday. Given the sparse coverage, will
leave out a mention of light rain in the 06z KVTN TAF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
342 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...
259 AM CDT
.SHORT TERM...Through Tonight...
After a late summer-like day on Tuesday, seems a decent bet for
some precipitation across the region today with several waves of
showers and storms possible.
A somewhat amplified pattern is in place across the lower two
thirds of the country as a strong high holds across the Gulf Coast
region and the southeast states, while a sharp trough digs into
the desert southwest. Water vapor imagery depicts the moist
southwest flow in between these two feature with a plume extending
through the southern plains into the corn belt region with several
shortwaves embedded in the flow. At the surface a somewhat non-
discrete pressure pattern is in place across our region with an
inverted trough axis extending northeast from low pressure across
Kansas. This axis bisects far northern Illinois from NE to SW back
toward the low, allowing for a somewhat stationary boundary to
remain in place, and this feature looks to act as our focus for
precipitation this morning and through the day. A feed of 60+
dewpoints extends from the Gulf Coast into the moisture plume
resulting in high PWAT values for November.
Elevated showers and thunderstorms will continue to form along a
narrow swath on/near this SW- NE oriented surface boundary from
southern Iowa and into north central IL with an initial shortwave
moving along it through about mid morning. Echo tops on these
storms are above the -20C level per the 0z DVN sounding (-20C at
22,600 feet) and mid- level lapse rates are supportive of the
elevated instability such that some storms will continue, though
with most unstable cape only about 300-500 j/kg expect coverage
that storms would be isolated/scattered, but just to our west
coverage will be greater with effective shear around 30-35 kt.
With the strong lower level surface flow, the surface boundary
will move little this morning which will keep the focus of any
activity largely north of i-88 with the more widespread showers in
Wisconsin, but with the moist sw flow scattered showers or
isolated storms do remain possible south of this axis during the
mid to late morning period.
It is not until the afternoon when the higher dewpoint airmass
will advect into our area. RAP is still progging around 1000 J/KG
ML CAPE along and south of I-80 this afternoon. With the
continued southwest flow, a surface wave will pass through the
area later today, and this coupled with the approach of the
northern stream upper shortwave will allow the front to move
southward from mid-late afternoon and into the evening. It is this
time period that is more favorable for an expansion of showers and
thunderstorms. The final surge comes during the evening when
better height falls coupled with another surface wave moving into
the high PWAT airmass would then favor areas along and south of
i-80 for some heavier showers and thunderstorms.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
259 AM CDT
Thursday through Tuesday...
Dry and increasingly mild weather will take hold Thursday into
early next week. The cold front will move south and east of the
area Thursday morning. The seasonally cool upper trough will still
rotate south and east across the region during this period, so
while skies will be clearing expect cooler highs in the upper 50s
to low 60s, which is still at minimum several degrees above
normal.
High pressure will be in place Friday, then slowly drift to the
Ohio valley for the weekend and eventually to the Appalachians by
Monday. The airmass is not as warm as what we saw early this week
given the west/northwest flow, but it is warm enough to support
above normal temperatures in the low 60s Friday, and even some mid
60s. The next chance of rain is not until Monday night or Tuesday
ahead of an upper trough axis, which may give us a glancing blow
of more seasonal temperatures by mid week.
KMD
&&
.CLIMATE...
259 AM CDT
Several record high minimum temperatures were set yesterday for ORD and RFD.
November 1 Chicago low temp 61, Record high min/year: 60/1933
November 1 Rockford low temp 60, Record high min/year: 57/1977
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...
Multiple forecast concerns this period including the possibility
for periodic thunderstorms, wind direction and lowering cig/vis.
At 06Z, a weak frontal boundary extends from low pressure over
nern KS, through nrn MO/srn IA and nrn IL. Shra/tsra are
developing north of the sfc front, along a zone of elevated
instability, from srn IA through the far nwrn corner of IL and
propagating into swrn WI. The sfc and elevated boundary will sag
slowly swd with much of the guidance suggesting that the sfc
boundary will becm stnry along the IL/WI border. There had been
some concerns for the development of some shra over nrn IL/srn
Lake Michigan/nrn IN after daybreak, and have included a vcsh
group in the TAFS arnd 12Z, but the high res guidance is backing
off on this idea and maintaining the pcpn along the elevated
bndry/elevated instability. this would suggest that any pcpn at
the Chicago area terminals may actually hold off a little longer
than has been anticipated. So, while carrying the vcsh at 12Z for
the Chicago area terminals with the 06Z issuance, may end up
backing off on pcpn until late morning or possibly even closer to
arnd 18Z for the Chicago area terminals and arnd 16Z for RFD. The
timing of TS is also somewhat problematic as well. Any TS
development will be tied to mid level impulses/sfc waves tracking
along the boundary. Currently carrying vcts as early as 14Z, but
will likely have to push that back some as well since the trends
with the hourly high res guidance continue to trend a little later
with the ts potential.
The sfc front is rather diffuse and winds invof the frontal trough
will likely be lgt/vrbl through the night and into the morninghours.
Winds will likely not begin to increase until Wednesday night as
the front is forced to the south with high pressure building
across the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes
region. To the south of the boundary, expect generally light sly
winds which should then shift to nly as front pushes to the south.
Confidence regarding specific wind direction and speed is low
though speeds though generally expect that speeds will remain
below 10 kt through the period and not increase until late
tomorrow night.
Cigs are expected to remain vfr through the night, but should
eventually lower to mvfr by late morning or early afternoon as the
sub-cloudbase saturates down as pcpn begins. With the chance for
nely winds developing as the front begins to push to the south,
ifr cigs will become more likely with cooler flow off of Lake
Michigan into an already moist environment. Ifr cigs may develop
by late afternoon and continue while nely flow persists. As winds
back to more nwly late tomorrow night, as high pressure builds
across the middle and upper Mississippi Valley, drier air should
advect into the region and cigs should begin to improve.
With an unseasonably high dewpoints at the sfc, already in the
upper 50s, vis restrictions should also develop in br and heavier
shra or tsra. Periods of mvfr vis are likely with shorter periods
of ifr vis not out of the question until the drier air begins to
filter into the region late tomorrow night.
&&
.MARINE...
330 AM CDT
A weak cold front will stall out over the srn tip of Lake Michigan
as high pressure builds across the upper Great Lakes region. A
period of northeast winds will set up today but become northerly
overnight tonight as another area of high pressure builds across
the nrn plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Nly winds of 10 to 20
kt will persist long enough for waves of 4-6 ft to develop over
the srn end of the lake. Have hoisted a small craft advisory for
late tonight through tomorrow afternoon. The high will the spread
across the lake Thursday afternoon and evening, allowing winds and
wave to dimish. Relatively quiet conditions will then prevail
over the lake through the weekend as high pressure spreads across
the Great Lakes.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...1 AM
Thursday TO 1 PM Thursday.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
332 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(today through Friday)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Latest water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis shows
southwesterly flow over the Central Plains with a ridge to our
east and a trough axis extending from western Wyoming into western
AZ. At the surface, low pressure was centered over the Texas
Panhandle with a quasi-stationary front extending northeast across
central and northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and into far
southeast Iowa. A few elevated thunderstorms continue to develop north
of the surface front where southwesterly 850mb flow continues to
increase. We expect at least a chance of continued showers and
isolated thunderstorms near/north of the boundary through the day
as the sfc low drifts northeast along the boundary into better
theta-e airmass which is supported in the latest CAMs. A stronger
northern stream shortwave will drop through this evening providing
continued upper level support but also pushing the surface front
south of the region and out of our area this evening.
Surface high pressure will build into the region on Thursday as
upper level heights build in advance of an approaching upper
level ridge. This upper level ridge will remain over the Central
Plains into Friday providing above normal temperatures to the
area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
By Friday night, the above mentioned upper level ridge axis will
shift east of the area while a closed mid level low over the Four
Corners region opens and slides northeast. Will continue small
chance for pcpn as shortwave energy briefly passes through early
next week. Overall, temperatures look to remain much above normal
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
88D mosaic showing isolated -TSRA activity has developed over sern
Neb along a slow moving frontal bndry. Thus have included TEMPO
groups at KOMA and KLNK. Otherwise VFR conditions expected thru
the fcst pd.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...DEE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
322 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles across the southeastern states today into
Thursday. Low pressure passes to our north Thursday, pulling a cold
front across the area later in the day Thursday. High pressure is
forecast to build to our south and west this weekend, before
building across the east coast early next week. A weak frontal
boundary may affect the east coast Saturday night as an area of low
pressure drifts south of New England and strengthens off the east
coast on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Thin layer of stratus will continue to scatter out through daybreak.
Latest HRRR and RAP indicating low level moisture moving offshore
through then. There may be a brief period prior to daybreak where
stratus scatters out, and this could allow some patchy fog to
develop.
Otherwise, a generally mostly sunny day on tap for most of the day
with some diurnally driven cu developing this afternoon and
increasing cirrus as a warm front approaches from the west.
With SW flow across the region, WAA will allow for temps to climb
well through the 60s and into the low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Warm front continues to approach from the west tonight and clouds
increase from the west and skies become mostly cloudy towards
daybreak Thursday.
With an increase in low level moisture, some fog and stratus is
possible late. Precip should hold off and conditions should remain
dry for the overnight period.
Lows will be in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An area of low pressure will be passing to our north on Thursday,
while a cold front is expected to move across the area late in the
day. The front is not expected to move into the area until late
afternoon and move offshore until after sunset. With a southwest
flow across the area ahead of the front, temperatures will warm
well above normal, with temperatures approaching records in some
areas. With the warmth and humidity, there will be some
instability developing across the area during the day, albeit
minimal. So we will keep a chance of isolated thunderstorms in the
forecast. There is 35-40 knots of shear forecast, so it would not
be surprising to see a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms
contain some gusty winds. Regardless of the showers or
thunderstorms, we will likely have gusty winds both pre- frontal
with the warm southwest flow, and post- frontal with the cold
advection. The showers will end during the evening Thursday as the
front moves offshore and temperatures will cool through the night
with the cold advection.
Friday, high pressure will be to our west and we will remain dry
with gusty winds as a north-northwest flow remains across the
area. Temperatures will be seasonably cool, about 20 degrees
cooler than Thursday. Dry conditions will continue into Friday
night as the high inches closer to the area.
On Saturday, a frontal boundary is forecast to move across the area
as a weak area of low pressure drifts southward across New England.
The low is forecast to strengthen off the east coast as it continues
southward during the day Sunday. The best chances of
precipitation will likely stay north of the area where there is
greater low level lift and moisture combination. But it would not
be surprising for a few showers to make their way into our area,
especially Sunday.
By Monday and Tuesday, the high pressure to our west builds eastward
across the east coast. This will provide cool and dry weather for
the start of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Stratus should continue to scatter out through daybreak, and with
increasing low level moisture, brief periods of MVFR and IFR VSBYs
in BR are possible through around 12Z, especially for KABE/KRDG.
Otherwise, VFR with a light SW wind, generally less than 10 KT.
Tonight...winds become LGT/VRB. Conditions should remain VFR, but
MVFR VSBYs possible towards daybreak.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday-Thursday night...VFR early. Showers, possibly a
thunderstorm, associated with a cold front during the afternoon
and evening. Rain ending during the evening, with improving
conditions overnight. Gusty southwest winds during the day 20-25
knots. Becoming northwest and gusty 20-25 knots during the evening
and overnight.
Friday-Sunday...Generally VFR. Gusty northwest winds Friday 20-25
knots. Less gusty on Saturday. Gusty northwest winds Sunday 20-25
knots.
&&
.MARINE...
A light pressure gradient over the waters results in SW winds
5-10 KT and seas on the ocean of 2-3 FT and on DE Bay of 1-2 FT.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday...Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected. Showers
,thunderstorms possible, by late afternoon.
Thursday night...Showers ,thunderstorms possible, during the evening.
Small Craft Advisory conditions likely, possibly near Gale force.
Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to continue,
possibly near Gale force early.
Friday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible early,
diminishing overnight.
Saturday-Saturday night...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected.
Sunday...A return to Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Here are the high temperature records for Thursday, November 3:
ACY...81/2003 PHL...80/1990 ILG...78/2003 ABE...79/2003
TTN...80/2003 GED...80/1982 RDG...79/2003 MPO...73/2003
October averaged 1.1 to 3.3 degrees above normal, throughout the CWA.
ABE averaged 55.8 degrees or 3.3 degrees above the normal of 52.5.
That`s the 16th warmest in the period of record dating back to 1922.
Allentown has also experienced its 9th driest October on record,
1.23". The driest October at Allentown was .09 inches in both 1963
and 1924.
PHL averaged 60.4 degrees or 2.9 degrees above the normal of 57.5.
That makes it the 17th warmest October in the period of record
dating back to 1874.
The October average temperatures are mainly noteworthy in that the
excessive monthly warmth of July, August, September eased in
October. This years October positive departures are generally warmer
than October 2015, by a degree or more.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Robertson/MPS
Marine...Robertson/MPS
Climate...Drag
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
300 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Area remains under southwesterly flow aloft as upper trof continues
to split to our west. Possibly some smaller scale vorticity being
ejected out of the southwestern trof but is difficult to discern in
satellite imagery at this hour. HRRR suggests a piece of energy
lifts out of the panhandles and into our forecast area from sunrise
through around the noon hour, with other short range models
indicating redevelopment generally along and south of I-70 for the
mid to late afternoon hours. These storms would have a bit more
instability to work with, and more time to better erode some of the
cap across the central/southern cwa. Probably better chance for a
stronger storm with the afternoon convection. Just not a tremendous
amount of lift of any one kind to get storms going. Some
frontogenesis around 850mb, but strongest lingers well behind the
surface boundary and lags the better moisture. Not anticipating
much for coverage with lack of lift, but given around 1000j/kg of
cape and 20-35kts of unidirectional shear and steeper mid level lapse
rates, could bring some low end marginally severe hail. Rain
chances end quickly by midnight as wave passing to the north and
east sweeps the surface front thorough the forecast area and
southeast by 06z. Highs today should still reach into the upper 60s
north to low 70s south.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Next several periods bring rather tranquil and mild conditions. Weak
high pressure at the surface becomes a persistent feature over
Missouri from Thursday afternoon into the early portions of the
weekend as the main jet remains well north of the region and the
upper low over the Southwest slowly weakens. After stratus works out
of east central Kansas Thursday morning, clear skies anticipated
into at least late in the night as modest subsidence builds in
aloft. Upper flow backing to a more westerly direction brings
increasing and thickening high cloud. South winds increase slightly
during this period for weak warm air return, but the thicker cloud
should keep much of a rise in check. Models continue to suggest the
remnants of the wave making their way in some fashion over the
Central Plains in the late weekend. Still limited moisture and
instability as well as the weak nature of the forcing keeps
precipitation chances low. Somewhat stronger forcing may occur early
next week with another modified cold front working its way southeast
over the western CONUS ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
Not much change to forecast thinking. Some elevated showers formed
north of TOP and moved into MO and the RAP/HRRR have been
gradually backing off on precip Wed morning with a stronger cap
above the isentropic lift. Because of this have been conservative
and limit precip mention to VCTS in the afternoon as the front
moves through. Expect MVFR CIGS to eventually move in and most
guidance bring them in around 15Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
905 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Quick update to add fog through mid morning across northwest and
north central North Dakota per surface and webcam observed trends
through 14 UTC.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
No real highlights for the short term forecast period. The past
few HRRR iterations have been consistent with bringing some light
radar returns up into our far southeast counties; mainly Dickey,
LaMoure, and possibly McIntosh later this morning. Through
Wednesday, the progressive pattern will quickly transition from
near zonal flow to northwest flow aloft. With clearing skies and
widespread highs in the 60s, expect more mild, dry, and pleasant
conditions through the afternoon and evening hours.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
The long term forecast features more of the same, at least for
the first part of the period. West coast ridging will slowly make
its way over towards Montana and North Dakota by Friday with
occasional flattening due to dry shortwaves/possible frontal
boundaries. It is important to note that there will be some
minimum relative humidity values in the low to mid 20 percent
range in the extreme southwest on Thursday. However, with light
winds forecast, there are no fire weather concerns at this point.
By Sunday, we experience a bit of a pattern change, as a west
coast trough begins to move into the region and we transition to a
southwest flow regime. By Sunday night into Monday, The GFS and
the ECMWF are in agreement of developing precipitation mainly in
the eastern part of the state. As this feature is still quite a
long way out, we will have to keep tabs on how the wave evolves
and where the track trends.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 901 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Patchy IFR fog will slowly burn off this morning across northern
North Dakota. KISN has increased to MVFR in fog as of 14 UTC and
is expected to continue to improve. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected across western and central North Dakota for the
remainder of the 12 UTC TAF cycle.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...AYD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
914 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front just to our north will stall today as low pressure
moves northeast out of the central Plains to the central Great
Lakes. The low will continue northeast tonight dragging the cold
front through the region overnight into Thursday. High pressure
will build in for Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some widely scattered showers are occurring over Lake Erie along
with northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Added a slight
chance of a showers to areas in NE Ohio this morning to reflect
radar trends although any rain will be light. In addition, cloud
cover is scattered at best across southern portions of the CWA so
have trimmed back sky cover to partly cloudy in a couple of
locations and bumped up temperatures a couple of degrees with
several spots getting to 80.
Original Discussion...
Clouds have increased across the area overnight as moderately
moist southwest flow overruns the region. Feel that as the better
overrunning moves north of the area today we should be able to get
a few peaks of sun. Radar shows a few very light rain showers
spotting the area west of roughly a KLPR- KMFD line. The HRRR has
this drifting ENE through the morning so will have a slight chance
pop west before dawn and then parts of Northeast Ohio and into
NWRN PA through the morning. Otherwise most of the precip will
remain north of the area today closer to the cold front that will
be stalling before it reaches into the area...at least today. Best
chance for precip will be northwest and northeast mid/late
afternoon. Another mild day is expected with highs in the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight should begin with the cold front stalled just to our
north...held by approaching low pressure from the central Plains.
After midnight this low moves off to the east/northeast of the
lakes allowing the cold front to swing SSE across the area. Expect
rain to move into northwest Ohio mainly early evening with rain
likely reaching the Cleveland area 10pm-midnight and the remainder
of the area soon after. Models consistent in bringing deep
moisture through the area in advance of an upper trough digging
into/across the Great Lakes so will have cat pops everywhere.
Thursday morning the front should still be in the area roughly
near a KGKJ to KMNN line. Will begin with cat pops all but the
western third of the area. Do expect drying from the west as the
surface low reaches New England and the cold front quickly drops
southeast of the area through the morning so for the afternoon
will have the west half dry and the east half dropping through
chance pop numbers. Will need to leave a slight chance in for the
northeast for flow off lakes Huron and Erie but Bufkit forecast
sounding really do not support a true lake effect scenario. Friday
and Saturday expect dry conditions as high pressure builds. Highs
upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday...in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Friday and 55 to 60 Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Little change in the long term forecast. Both models have high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes by daybreak Sunday. The high
drifts over the Eastern Lakes on Monday setting up a weak southerly
flow. Gfs continues to be a little cooler than the ECMWF so split
the difference and leaned toward the superblend on temps...which has
temps nearly seasonal. The ECMWF continues to be faster with the
next cold front...moving it across the area on Tuesday. The GFS is
slower...not moving the front through until late Tuesday into
Tuesday night. For now will keep low chance pops going Tuesday
into Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Front is north of Lake Erie...but expect some isolated showers to
develop this morning as a weak low level jet moves across the
area. Will just continue with vcsh in tafs this morning. Rain
showers will develop tonight as low pressure currently near the OK
panhandle...moves across the lower lakes tonight.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible later Wednesday night into Thursday in
showers then again Thursday night into Friday for northeast
Ohio/northwest Pennsylvania.
&&
.MARINE...
A front north of Lake Erie will push south across the lake early
Thursday morning. A small craft advisory will likely be needed as
winds turn to the north to Northeast and increase to 10 to 20 knots.
Conditions will gradually improve from the West on Friday as high
pressure moves across the upper Ohio Valley. Winds again turn to
the Northwest Saturday as a weaker cold front moves across the lake.
High pressure quickly builds in on Sunday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1101 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Showers continue to develop this morning along and north of a
frontal boundary stalled over Southeast Michigan. Coverage has
been isolated to scattered so far this morning as dry air shown on
both 12Z DTX and APX raobs has been harder to overcome with only
light ascent. Better coverage is expected after about 1PM as
upper wave responsible for increased coverage of showers/tstorms
over Lake Michigan begins to work into the area. This should
mainly affect areas north of M-59. 13Z HRRR run then shows a break
in activity during the first part of the evening, likely
reflecting subsidence behind the upper wave. This is certainly a
plausible scenario, although there is some uncertainty as to how
long the subsidence will have an impact as forcing really starts
to ramp up after 21Z (upper jet...lower-level isentropic
ascent...upright forcing from FGEN after 00Z). Will likely only
make small adjustments to pops and QPF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 751 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
AVIATION...
An extremely messy aviation forcing with respect to timing of shower
and rain activity during the daylight hours today as a frontal
boundary remains draped over the region. Keying off a couple of
items to time a wave of precipitation activity through the M 59 and
I 69 corridors between 17-21Z. The first justification is that model
data shows an increase in low to midlevel convergence on the nose of
a fresh low level jet cycle working northward in concert with
reestablishment of ridge to the southeast. The second item is some
support by recent HRRR runs to allow showers to fill if east of the
activity that is upstream over southern Lake Michigan and northern
IL. Winds to remain relatively light today for the time of year due
to the front overhead.
Confidence then increases to high for rain tonight as better
deformation organizes under increased right entrance region jet
dynamics. Model signal for tonight is one of widespread stratiform
with IFR/LIFR cigs and vsbys after dusk. Rain is expected to end by
10Z Thursday with some weak northerly gradient flow increasing and
likely disrupting the IFR and LIFR conditions.
For DTW...included a VCSH group for the midday period as activity is
expected to remain north of the terminal. Main stratiform rain
impacting DTW will push in at/around 01Z. High confidence in
IFR/LIFR cigs and
//DTW Threshold Probabilities...
* High for ceiling below 5000 ft today and tonight.
* Low for ceiling below 200 feet or visibility below 1/2 mile from
01Z Thursday to 10Z Thursday.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
DISCUSSION...
Stationary front currently positioned across the northern third of
the forecast area this morning. Fog and temperatures near 50 degrees
are found north of the front and mid/high clouds with temps closer
to 60 to the south. Another warm day will be in store far the far
southern CWA where temps are already well above yesterday`s at the
same time and fropa and/or precip are not expected until tonight.
Mid 70s therefore possible near the Ohio border with 50s under
clouds and rain in a colder airmass in the Saginaw Valley and
northern Thumb.
Regional radar mosaic indicates showers already developing within
the initial wave of shallow isentropic ascent over eastern Iowa. As
energy streams across Lower MI from the southwest, this corridor of
ascent will rapidly expand eastward early this morning making a few
light showers possible south of M59 through mid-morning. Otherwise,
expect the primary wave of ascent to remain this afternoon and
remain focused over the northern CWA. This increased forcing will
occur as the right entrance of an upper jet strengthens today in
advance of the trough approaching from the west. The primary change
noted int he 00z suite was to delay the onset of the better jet
dynamics until later this afternoon, thus the 12-18z period may be
more of a high pop/low QPF scenario. Strengthening mid-level
westerly flow and deep layer isentropic ascent will arrive during
the afternoon. When considered along with increasing fgen as jet
forcing ramps up, an increase in pops to categorical mainly north of
I-69 appeared prudent. Steep lapse rates may support some embedded
thunder as well. Upstream trough will sweep through tonight ushering
the frontal zone to the east and bringing a few hours of rain to all
remaining areas.
H85 temps will plunge behind the front to near 0C by Thursday
evening, supporting highs just slightly above average values for the
date. Ongoing cold advection through the day will support a
deepening boundary layer and an increased likelihood of stratocu
development by Thursday afternoon, particularly as NW flow is
enhanced by Superior-Michigan. Thermal trough firmly in place by
Friday, highs will likely settle near 50 degrees.
Extended dry period looks to be in the offing per the last few runs
of the global spectral suite as high amplitude ridging works across
the the eastern half of the US late this week toward the middle of
next week...temps generally on the warm side of average during this
time.
MARINE...
A frontal boundary draped across the region will provide a focus for
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm today and tonight.
In the meantime, a weak ridge of surface high pressure will build
into the northern Great Lakes down to around the Straits. This will
cause relatively light northerly to easterly flow to develop
immediately north of the frontal boundary. Northwesterly gradient
flow will increase modestly on Thursday in response to strong
surface high pressure building in to the western Great Lakes. Small
craft advisories may be needed for the nearshore waters of the
southern Lake Huron basin Thursday.
HYDROLOGY...
A frontal boundary that will stall over Michigan late tonight will
become the focus for widespread rainfall Wednesday through early
Thursday as low pressure rides over this boundary. Most of the rain
is expected to fall between late tomorrow afternoon and sunrise on
Thursday. Most locations look to receive around one-half inch of
rainfall. A stripe of heavier rainfall where totals reach closer to
one inch is expected, however. The placement of this band is still a
little uncertain at this time, but best potential looks to be
between the M-59 and I-69 corridors. A few thunderstorms will also
be possible, yielding locally higher totals. Dry weather is expected
Thursday afternoon through the weekend.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......HLO
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......CB
HYDROLOGY....CB
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
630 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 410 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2016
Short Range...
Forecast is not as clear cut as yesterday at this time owing mainly
to a stable layer aloft which is capping convection within the warm
sector plus the uncertainty of a h7 shortwave progged to move
through KS/MO.
A quasi-stationary boundary extends from a weak surface low over
northeast KS along the MO/IA border. This boundary will likely move
little until this evening when a shortwave trough drops southeast
through MN/IA. Until then our rain chances will be driven by 1)
increasing moist isentropic ascent within a conditionally unstable
airmass 2) a h7 shortwave trough tracking ene through KS and 3)
modest but increasing layered frontogenetic forcing during the
afternoon hours. With the above in mind have focused PoPs across the
northern half of the CWA this morning with a gradual uptick towards
the noon hour as PVA ahead of the KS shortwave approaches. Short
range convective allowing progs seem on the same page in ramping
PoPs up to likely category within a corridor centered from KC area
through Macon as convection expands eastward. Moderate ascent
provided by the right rear quad of a departing upper level jet will
support the convection.
As noted earlier the instability will be conditional and predicated
on how much stratus advects north from OK. Current surface obs do
show stratus forming over central/south central OK but nowhere near
as expansive as previous and current runs of the NAM and RAP had
forecast. So this calls into question as to how much stratus will be
present through early afternoon. Should the stratus not be as
extensive nor linger long enough then MUCAPEs in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range are likely. This combined with 30-40kt of 0-6km shear could
support strong, even a few severe, storms. The primary threat would
be from marginally severe hail. Plus it`s the day of our winter
weather seminar so of course severe storms will occur.
Convection will end from north to south this evening. Inspection of
BUFR soundings also suggests drizzle could form by the pre-dawn
hours of Thursday morning south of the MO River.
Extended Range...
Sensible weather looks quite benign with above normal temperatures
through the weekend as initial subsidence in the wake of the
departing shortwave and a building upper level ridge just west of
the CWA provide a dome of protection from any precipitation from
forming.
As we enter the start of a new week attention will turn on whether
or not a cut-off upper low over the desert southwest will dislodge
and lift northeast. History says that whenever this feature finally
ejects it will track northwest of the initial model forecasts. So
confidence in the blended model output low chance PoPs on Tuesday is
low.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2016
MVFR ceilings are rolling into west central MO and expect this cloud
cover to overspread east central KS as well as into north central MO
this morning. Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible mainly across northern MO this morning before increasing in
coverage this afternoon and expanding south towards the MO River.
Scattered showers and isolated storms with MVFR ceilings are
expected this evening with the activity gradually shifting southeast
and out of the forecast area by 12z Thursday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...MJ
Aviation...MJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
925 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Minor cloud trend adjustments otherwise no forecast changes. Will
keep low pops going across the far south although radar returns
unimpressive and obs indicating cigs pretty high...more like
sprinkles.
UPDATE Issued at 701 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Cold front at 11z located near Roseau-Grand Forks-Valley City line
and moving southeast. Mid/high cloud moisture being pushed
eastward as upper level short wave axis moves east as well.
Watching stratocu enter parts of far northern ND in the cold
advection behind the front. Right now idea is for them to spread
southeast toward Thief River Falls area and far NW MN today.
Temps/sky cover seems ok. Some light showers or sprinkles nr the
SD/MN/ND border region so some low pops in this area still ok.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
500 mb short wave trough moving into western Manitoba down into
far eastern Montana. There is a weak cold front with this feature
which will move east across the today with light northwest winds
behind it. Ahead of this short wave trough is an area of mid level
moisture and radar shows a few weak returns mainly in the Huron to
Watertown SD area this early morning. HRRR does show some weak
pcpn chances into far SE ND and WC MN parts of my fcst area today
so matched up with surrounding offices and included a low pop
there. HRRR is about the only model to show precip as the global
models are pretty dry. In addition behind this short wave trough
is a weak disturbance that may bring a shower or two to far
southern Manitoba today and into lake of the woods region this
evening. have a low pop for this in LOW region. Otherwise the mid
and high level moisture ahd of this trough will spread east with
some clearing into parts of eastern ND this aftn...though some
stratocu may drop southeast in cold advection behind the front
into far NE ND and NW MN today. Net result are temps a tad cooler
in the far north today with mid-upr 40s with low-mid 50s south.
Skies clearing tonight with a light south-southwest wind.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Upper ridge builds into the area Thu-Fri north of an upper low
that will drop into the southwestern U.S. This will bring milder
air and a pretty dry airmass for a couple of sunny days.
For the Saturday through Tuesday period...
Long wave pattern doesnt change much. Long wave trough remains over
the northeastern Pacific and a long wave ridge remains over western
Canada with another long wave trough over eastern Canada. Upper
ridge may shift a little farther north during the period. Also long
wave trough over eastern Canada shifts a little east through the
period.
The GFS was faster than the ECMWF but by the end of the period the
ECMWF was faster. No trend was noted in the last few model
runs...models were vacillating. Will blend the models. Short wave
upper trough expected to move through around Mon.
No change to high temperatures for Sat. Increased temps for Sun and
Mon by one to two degrees and decrease temps about a degree for Tue
from yesterdays forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 701 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Mid and High level cloud cover from E SD...across E ND into MN
will shift east today but linger in eastern fcst area most of the
day. Of more concern is southern extent of MVFR cigs that should
move southeast from Manitoba. Right now they may brush GFK and
more likely TVF midday. Winds light today, under 10 kts...south
ahd of the front and northwest behind it.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Hoppes/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1029 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Forecast for this afternoon and into the evening appears to be on
track. Adjusted the max temperatures and dew points slightly to
account for the latest observations. Another abnormally warm day
can be expected, with highs in the mid-80s across SE Texas. No
changes have been made to PoPs for this afternoon. Daytime heating
along with onshore flow will advect low-level moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico more inland, aiding the possibility of showers and
thunderstorm development for this afternoon. Expect coverage to be
scattered to isolated, beginning in the west and eventually
sweeping across the forecast area.
Hathaway
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/
AVIATION...
IFR cigs have developed at KCXO and KUTS but for the most part,
visibility and cigs have remained VFR. could still get some patchy
fog through 14z and some MVFR-IFR cigs early this morning. Clouds
should begin to mix out and cigs should rise to between 035-045
feet by late morning. Daytime heating will trigger some late
morning/afternoon shra/tsra today. Fcst soundings don`t show much
capping so should get some thunder later today. Precip should end
between 23-01z. RAP looks a bit overdone and did not initialize
well so leaned toward the HRRR and Texas Tech WRF for TAFs. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm conditions will continue today across Southeast
Texas, with temperatures as of 4 AM CDT still in the upper 60s to
low 70s. These temperatures are about 10 degrees warmer than
normal temperatures for this time of year and both Houston Hobby
and Galveston have the potential to set record high minimum
temperatures this morning. In addition to the warm start to the
day, rain chances will also increase across the region as waves of
moisture spread inland from the Gulf. Area radars show light warm
air advection showers developing across portions of South Central
Texas associated with weak upglide from a 20-25 knot low level jet
(as seen on the Ft. Hood VAD Wind Profiler). Showers were also
developing farther east south of the Sabine Pass in an area of
speed convergence.
CIRA layer precipitable water vapor imagery shows precipitable
water values anywhere from 1.4 to 1.8 inches just off the Upper
Texas Coast this morning, with a core of deeper moisture sitting
just off the southern Louisiana coast. As this plume of higher
moisture advects east today, expect showers and thunderstorms to
expand into the eastern coastal waters, building north into the
extreme eastern portions of the forecast area. Daytime heating
will allow scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage to expand
inland as this moisture pushes farther into the region. With
precipitable water values climbing to near 1.8 inches this
afternoon, cannot rule out brief heavy downpours in stronger
activity... but anticipate most folks who see rain to simply
receive some much needed light to moderate rainfall. Otherwise,
expect high temperatures to rise into the mid 80s with Galveston
potentially setting another record high temperature this
afternoon.
Expect any activity that develops to wane inland with loss of
heating tonight, but coastal convergence will encourage scattered
showers and thunderstorms to linger along the coast and across
coastal waters during the overnight hours. Mostly cloudy skies
will keep overnight lows elevated again in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Both Galveston and Houston Hobby (again) may tie or set
record high minimum temperatures on Thursday morning. More
information about these records is contained in the climate
section below.
Analysis of 00Z radiosonde observations showed a weak shortwave
trough over the ArkLaTex, with upper ridging building over the
southeastern U.S. and an upper trough located over the Great
Basin. As a mid-level speed max over California rounds the base of
this trough later today, model guidance continues to advertise a
cut-off low developing over Arizona and dropping south into New
Mexico. This low looks to meander over northwest Mexico over the
next few days, with its parent trough translating east towards the
Great Plains later today. This trough will provide enough forcing
to nudge a cold front into the Texas Panhandle tonight, with the
front making additional progress across Texas during the day
Thursday.
Thursday will also be another warm day ahead of the cold front
with highs rising into the low to mid 80s. Scattered to numerous
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected again
Thursday ahead of the front, with some of this activity again
capable of brief heavy rainfall. The cold front will move across
the region Thursday night into Friday, with rain chances ending
from northeast to southwest across the forecast area behind the
front. Drier air will lag behind the front a bit and not arrive
until Friday night, and areas west of Interstate 45 may still have
enough available moisture during the day Friday to get an isolated
daytime shower or thunderstorm to develop. Otherwise, expect highs
Friday in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Upper ridging over the Gulf will expand westward over Texas
through the end of the work week and into the beginning of the
weekend as an upper trough moves into the eastern U.S., with dry
and pleasant conditions expected across the region. Expect cool
mornings with lows in the 50s (low 60s along the coast) and
afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
As the cutoff low over northwest Mexico lifts towards the Rocky
Mountains by late weekend, it looks to shear into an open wave.
Gradually returning moisture and lift from this passing upper
feature will result in increasing rain chances for the western
counties at the beginning of next week. Medium range guidance is
continuing to advertise a second upper wave reaching the Southern
Plains by next Tuesday, cutting it off over West Texas. Will need
to continue to watch the evolution of this feature as where this
low is located will influence mid-week temperatures and rain
chances. For now have trended close to climatology, with 20-30
PoPs in the extended until better model consensus is achieved.
Huffman
MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern U.S. and lower pressures over the
Texas panhandle will produce a moderate onshore flow today.
Elevated seas/swells will persist today as a long fetch of E-SE
winds prevail across the Gulf of Mexico. Will maintain a SCEC for
the offshore waters as seas are expected to remain near 5 feet.
Tide levels remain 1.0 to 1.4 feet above normal and this will
bring tide levels to around 3.2 feet later tonight. May see some
minor coastal flooding tonight along Highway 87 during high tide.
A cold front will move off the coast Friday morning with moderate
N-NE winds developing in the wake of the front. Another SCEC will
likely be needed Fri night into Saturday. High pressure over the
eastern U.S. will maintain a moderate east wind on Sunday. 43
CLIMATE...
Unseasonably warm temperatures across the region may tie or break
record high maximum and/or record high minimum temperatures today
and Thursday, with the most likely locations being Houston Hobby
and Galveston. A listing of records for official climate sites is
provided below.
FOR NOVEMBER 2ND...
LOCATION RECORD HIGH MAX (YEAR) RECORD HIGH MIN (YEAR)
HOUSTON IAH 89 (1978) 71 (1946)
HOUSTON HOU 88 (1950) 72 (2000)
COLLEGE STATION 89 (1955) 72 (1945)
GALVESTON 82 (2000) 76 (1946)
FOR NOVEMBER 3RD...
LOCATION RECORD HIGH MAX (YEAR) RECORD HIGH MIN (YEAR)
HOUSTON IAH 87 (1992) 74 (1994)
HOUSTON HOU 90 (1973) 72 (2000)
COLLEGE STATION 88 (1948) 74 (1994)
GALVESTON 85 (1886) 74 (2000)
Huffman
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 70 83 66 80 / 30 20 40 20 20
Houston (IAH) 85 72 84 67 83 / 30 20 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 76 82 71 80 / 30 30 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
650 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Today-tonight:
Surface boundary in far northwest section of forecast area will
slowly drift southeast through through this afternoon and clear
the forecast area tonight. Precipitation chances may ramp up a bit
during the day, but best chances will be closer to 0000 UTC and
into the evening in Southeast KS, where surface boundary, trailing
shortwave and deeper low level moisture all intersect. Drier air
will spill across the area on Thursday. Temperatures will likely
be limited at most areas by extensive clouds, but GFS, NAM, RUC and
ECMWF all suggest a small dry slot will develop ahead of front in
the afternoon that could allow a bit more recovery in parts of
South Central KS.
Thursday-Friday:
Both days a bit of a challenge with weak cold air advection on
Thursday and recirculated cool air on Friday and dry air and
abundant sunshine both days. Edged temperatures up a degree or so,
but not sure it was enough. Thicknesses would support maxes in the
mid 70s. -Howerton
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Same broken record continues this period with medium range models
still struggling with pattern change. Still have fair agreement
that surface high will dominate the eastern half of US with cut
off upper energy meandering across the plains. This is followed
quickly by a stronger trough moving into the plains on Monday.
Persistent moisture will stream north up the high plains in the
return flow. This could lead to periodic precipitation chances for
far western sections for much of this period. Potential for
extensive clouds for all areas over the weekend. Best chances
area wide for rain are on Monday/Monday night with shortwave
passage. Considerable run to run and model to model variations
result in lower than normal confidence for this period. -Howerton
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
A few elevated showers and storms have developed early this
morning across central KS while other very isolated activity may
impact portions of southeast Kansas. Better chances for more
widespread storm activity should arrive this afternoon along and
ahead of a slow moving cold front. Winds behind the front will
shift to the north at 10-15 knots. Storm activity this afternoon
and evening may impact KCNU while probabilities further west
remain too low to mention in area TAFS. Low clouds over OK were
moving rapidly north toward southern KS early this morning with
MVFR cigs expected to become widespread through the morning hours
over southern KS. Ceilings should lift as we move into the
afternoon hours with VFR returning to much of south central and
central KS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 77 53 72 45 / 20 20 0 0
Hutchinson 74 50 71 42 / 10 10 0 0
Newton 74 51 70 45 / 20 20 0 0
ElDorado 76 54 71 45 / 30 30 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 79 55 72 46 / 30 30 0 0
Russell 69 44 71 40 / 20 0 0 0
Great Bend 70 45 72 40 / 20 10 0 0
Salina 72 48 72 41 / 20 10 0 0
McPherson 73 49 71 41 / 20 10 0 0
Coffeyville 78 59 72 46 / 50 60 0 0
Chanute 76 57 71 45 / 60 60 0 0
Iola 75 56 71 45 / 60 60 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 77 59 72 46 / 50 60 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...MWM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
949 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Elevated convection tracking across mainly northern Illinois this
morning along the frontal boundary, with a wing tracking across
areas northwest of Peoria. Galesburg picked up a quick half inch
with the storms since the top of the hour. A few showers have been
trying to get going as well as far south as Jacksonville. The
front should start to nudge southward later this afternoon as a
wave of low pressure rides along it. MUCAPE`s of 500-1000 J/kg
will keep the thunder threat around as the precipitation increases
again this afternoon, with the latest HRRR organizing a line of
storms just east of the Iowa border around 3-4 pm.
Main forecast changes were to refine the hourly PoP trends through
tonight. Temperatures largely on track and required little
modification.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
07z/2am surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary extending
from Chicago to just north of Kansas City. The KILX CWA remains on
the warm side of the front, with current temperatures in the lower
to middle 60s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already
developed north of the boundary from central Iowa into far northwest
Illinois, but these are moving to the northeast and will remain well
W/NW of central Illinois early this morning. Convection will
gradually develop further east ahead of the front, with most models
keeping the bulk of the precip in the immediate vicinity of the
front. Some high-res models are suggesting isolated showers forming
well into the warm sector as far southeast as the I-70 corridor
later this morning; however, do not think this is plausible. As a
result, have confined shower and storm chances to areas along/west
of the I-55 corridor this morning...then have pushed them slightly
further east toward I-57 during the afternoon. Will keep the SE CWA
dry through the entire day. Given cloud cover and scattered showers,
temperatures will be a bit cooler across the Illinois River Valley
than they were yesterday...with afternoon highs only reaching the
lower to middle 70s. Meanwhile further southeast where more
sunshine will be noted, highs will once again top out in the upper
70s and lower 80s along/south of I-70.
Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous this evening...as
synoptic lift is enhanced within the right entrance region of a
100kt 300mb jet streak over the Great Lakes. In addition...copious
amounts of moisture will flow northward from the Gulf of
Mexico...resulting in record precipitable water values for early
November of 1.50-1.60. As the Northern Rockies short-wave gives the
front a solid push eastward, thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall will develop and track across the area this evening.
Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 will be common everywhere north of
I-70. A few of the storms could produce gusty winds and small hail
along/west of I-55...as SBCAPE values push 1000J/kg and 0-6km bulk
shear ranges from 30-40kt. Once the front starts moving, it will
make fast progress through the CWA overnight, dropping to near
Lawrenceville by 12z.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Once the cold front passes, high pressure will provide slightly
cooler/drier weather from Thursday afternoon through early next
week. The coolest conditions will be on Friday when highs drop into
the lower to middle 60s. After that, rising upper heights and
airmass modification will result in highs climbing back into the
middle to upper 60s and perhaps close to 70 degrees over the
weekend. The next chance for precipitation will hold off until late
Monday into Tuesday as a weak cold front passes through the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all sites this morning, though
SPI/DEC/CMI will start with high cirrus, their cigs will lower to
around 5kft like PIA and BMI in a few hours this morning. Models
differ on timing of the precip with HRRR bringing in scattered
showers during the morning hours and then convection starting the
early afternoon. Other models do not have any precip in the
morning but start convection around 17z. Will discount the
scattered showers this morning from the HRRR, but follow the
convection for early this afternoon. Once precip begins, cigs will
drop into MVFR category. Believe when precip begins, the heavier
thunderstorms will be near the start, so have a 3hr TEMPO group at
all sites with lower vis and cigs, though still in MVFR category.
MVFR category conditions will prevail rest of the evening. TAF
sites could see some improvement during the overnight hours when
precip should be ending, but some models keep precip going til
after midnight. Therefore will not include another line due to too
much uncertainty.
Winds will be southerly til late morning. Then lighter as the
front moves into the area. As the front moves through this
evening, winds will become more northerly at PIA. Front will not
get to the other sites til after midnight, so winds will be
southwesterly just ahead of the front during the evening hours.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
624 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
The shower activity across Nwrn Neb should exit the fcst area by
18z this morning. There is a fairly organized area of rain near
Cheyenne which has to move northeast before clearing can develop
from northwest to southeast today.
Per KLBF UA sounding...the RAP model shows high cirrus and moisture
at the 350-250mb layer exiting the forecast by 00z this evening.
This will produce clearing from the northwest to southeast today.
Pacific high pressure across the Intermountain region will build in
tonight with clear skies and light drainage winds developing.
The temperature forecast today and tonight uses a blend of guidance
plus bias correction for highs in the low to mid 60s today. Bias
correction cools the highs a degree or two from the operational
numbers. Lows tonight fall into the 30s with upper 20s across the
Wrn Sandhills.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
An upper level blocking pattern will dominate the weather for at
least the next week across the nation. Our portion of the country
will be under persistent upper level ridging, with troughing along
both coasts. With the the ridging, expect little change in the
mild to warm temperatures through early next week. Highs will
mostly be in the 60s, but lower 70s are likely both Thursday and
Friday. Part of the reason for the "cool down" into the 60s for
the weekend and early next week, is due to a cut off upper low
trapped within the ridge that will slowly meander from the four
corners toward the central portions of the country. This will
bring an increase in cloud cover, along with a chance for showers.
Enough instability present to continue the mention of thunder as
well. Southerly flow both at the surface and aloft ahead of the
system will help to increase precipitable water amounts to around
one inch. So plenty of moisture available, but with only weak
dynamics not expecting widespread precipitation and will keep
chances fairly low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
VFR is expected all areas today and tonight.
An upper level disturbance moving through the Central Plains this
morning will exit Nebraska by 18z. SKC conditions should fill in
behind the disturbance this afternoon. Pacific high pressure
across the Intermountain region will build in tonight with SKC
conditions continuing.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
649 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...
259 AM CDT
.SHORT TERM...Through Tonight...
After a late summer-like day on Tuesday, seems a decent bet for
some precipitation across the region today with several waves of
showers and storms possible.
A somewhat amplified pattern is in place across the lower two
thirds of the country as a strong high holds across the Gulf Coast
region and the southeast states, while a sharp trough digs into
the desert southwest. Water vapor imagery depicts the moist
southwest flow in between these two feature with a plume extending
through the southern plains into the corn belt region with several
shortwaves embedded in the flow. At the surface a somewhat non-
discrete pressure pattern is in place across our region with an
inverted trough axis extending northeast from low pressure across
Kansas. This axis bisects far northern Illinois from NE to SW back
toward the low, allowing for a somewhat stationary boundary to
remain in place, and this feature looks to act as our focus for
precipitation this morning and through the day. A feed of 60+
dewpoints extends from the Gulf Coast into the moisture plume
resulting in high PWAT values for November.
Elevated showers and thunderstorms will continue to form along a
narrow swath on/near this SW- NE oriented surface boundary from
southern Iowa and into north central IL with an initial shortwave
moving along it through about mid morning. Echo tops on these
storms are above the -20C level per the 0z DVN sounding (-20C at
22,600 feet) and mid- level lapse rates are supportive of the
elevated instability such that some storms will continue, though
with most unstable cape only about 300-500 j/kg expect coverage
that storms would be isolated/scattered, but just to our west
coverage will be greater with effective shear around 30-35 kt.
With the strong lower level surface flow, the surface boundary
will move little this morning which will keep the focus of any
activity largely north of i-88 with the more widespread showers in
Wisconsin, but with the moist sw flow scattered showers or
isolated storms do remain possible south of this axis during the
mid to late morning period.
It is not until the afternoon when the higher dewpoint airmass
will advect into our area. RAP is still progging around 1000 J/KG
ML CAPE along and south of I-80 this afternoon. With the
continued southwest flow, a surface wave will pass through the
area later today, and this coupled with the approach of the
northern stream upper shortwave will allow the front to move
southward from mid-late afternoon and into the evening. It is this
time period that is more favorable for an expansion of showers and
thunderstorms. The final surge comes during the evening when
better height falls coupled with another surface wave moving into
the high PWAT airmass would then favor areas along and south of
i-80 for some heavier showers and thunderstorms.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
259 AM CDT
Thursday through Tuesday...
Dry and increasingly mild weather will take hold Thursday into
early next week. The cold front will move south and east of the
area Thursday morning. The seasonally cool upper trough will still
rotate south and east across the region during this period, so
while skies will be clearing expect cooler highs in the upper 50s
to low 60s, which is still at minimum several degrees above
normal.
High pressure will be in place Friday, then slowly drift to the
Ohio valley for the weekend and eventually to the Appalachians by
Monday. The airmass is not as warm as what we saw early this week
given the west/northwest flow, but it is warm enough to support
above normal temperatures in the low 60s Friday, and even some mid
60s. The next chance of rain is not until Monday night or Tuesday
ahead of an upper trough axis, which may give us a glancing blow
of more seasonal temperatures by mid week.
KMD
&&
.CLIMATE...
259 AM CDT
Several record high minimum temperatures were set yesterday for ORD and RFD.
November 1 Chicago low temp 61, Record high min/year: 60/1933
November 1 Rockford low temp 60, Record high min/year: 57/1977
KMD
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs...
Multiple forecast concerns this period including the possibility
for periodic thunderstorms, wind direction and lowering cig/vis,
the details of which still have a considerable amount of
uncertainty.
A weak frontal boundary remains stationary from low pressure over
swrn KS, through nrn MO/srn IA and nrn IL. Shra/tsra are
developing north of the sfc front, along a zone of elevated
instability, from srn IA through nwrn IL and propagating into
swrn WI. Sct shra are beginning to develop along the bndry over
nrn IL. The sfc and elevated boundary will sag slowly swd with
much of the guidance suggesting that the sfc boundary will remain
stnry through late this afternoon. There remains some concern
regarding the timing of moving into the terminals. Some of the
high res guidance had backed off timing until arnd 18z while
others suggested pcpn at the Chicago area terminals a little
earlier. Have closer to arnd 16Z for the Chicago area terminals
and arnd 14Z for RFD. The timing of TS is also somewhat
problematic as well. Any TS development will be tied to mid level
impulses/sfc waves tracking along the boundary. Currently carrying
vcts as early as 14Z.
The sfc front is rather diffuse and winds invof the frontal trough
will likely be somewhat lgt/vrbl across the region through the
morning hours. Wind direction is starting out nely at ORD/RFD and
lgt/vrbl elsewhere. The front will eventually be forced to the
south with high pressure building across the upper Mississippi
Valley and western Great Lakes region. To the south of the
boundary, expect generally light sly winds which should then
shift to nly as front pushes to the south. Confidence regarding
specific wind direction and speed remains low though generally
expect that speeds will remain below 10 kt through the period and
not increase until late tomorrow night.
Cigs are expected to eventually lower to mvfr by late morning as
the sub-cloudbase saturates down with pcpn becmg more widespread.
With the nely winds developing as the front begins to push to the
south, ifr cigs will become more likely with cooler flow off of
Lake Michigan into an already moist environment. Ifr cigs may
develop by late afternoon and continue while nely flow persists.
As winds back to more nwly late tomorrow night, as high pressure
builds across the middle and upper Mississippi Valley, drier air
should advect into the region and cigs should begin to improve.
With an unseasonably high dewpoints at the sfc, already in the
upper 50s, vis restrictions should also develop in br and heavier
shra or tsra. Periods of mvfr vis are likely with shorter periods
of ifr vis not out of the question until the drier air begins to
filter into the region late tomorrow night.
&&
.MARINE...
330 AM CDT
A weak cold front will stall out over the srn tip of Lake Michigan
as high pressure builds across the upper Great Lakes region. A
period of northeast winds will set up today but become northerly
overnight tonight as another area of high pressure builds across
the nrn plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Nly winds of 10 to 20
kt will persist long enough for waves of 4-6 ft to develop over
the srn end of the lake. Have hoisted a small craft advisory for
late tonight through tomorrow afternoon. The high will the spread
across the lake Thursday afternoon and evening, allowing winds and
wave to dimish. Relatively quiet conditions will then prevail
over the lake through the weekend as high pressure spreads across
the Great Lakes.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...1 AM
Thursday TO 1 PM Thursday.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1012 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.UPDATE...
Easterly winds have continued breezy through early this morning.
By this afternoon, as mixing occurs, expect sustained easterly
winds to increase to 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts possible.
Moisture laden, lower level, clouds could be observed the IR
satellite loop edging from the Atlantic to the southwest towards
northern portions of the east coast metro. The HRRR and HiRes WRF
advect isolated light showers into the region throughout the day,
mainly affecting aforementioned area. Have updated pops to better
reflect the extend of slight chances of showers, mainly along the
eastern portion of the peninsula.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 812 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016/
AVIATION...
High pressure to the north will maintain breezy ENE winds this
morning, strengthening to 11-15 KT by 02/1500Z with higher gusts
at times. These ENE winds will decrease down to 8-10 KT aft
03/0000Z. Partly cloudy skies will prevail with a slight chance of
showers along the east coast of the peninsula. However, confidence
was too low to include VCSH in the TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 454 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016/
DISCUSSION...
High pressure continues to dominate across most of the eastern
CONUS including the Florida peninsula and into the Florida
Straits. Most of the region is cloud free except for some cloud
streamers off the northwest Bahamas drifting into the Atlantic
waters and Atlantic metro areas.
Forecast for today...High pressure will continue to persist
today. But a few showers can be expected. A weak boundary near the
northwest Bahamas is producing a line of stratcumulus clouds that
will move southwest today and could enter the Atlantic waters east
of Palm Beach county late this morning and then across the Lake
region in the afternoon, with passing showers expected. The line
of clouds and associated showers could continue to pass southward
across the remainder of South Florida and adjacent waters this
evening and early Thursday morning with light showers possible.
Cloud streamers off the northwest Bahamas islands will also
provide a few showers as well.
For Thursday...By Thursday regional high pressure will start to
weaken as a cold front develops into the east central CONUS.
Northeasterly surface and low level flow will bring occasional
patches of moisture and cloudiness across the Atlantic waters,
with isolated showers affecting mainly the Atlantic waters and
eastern peninsula.
Forecast for Friday and the weekend...The aforementioned cold
front is forecast to enter north Florida late Friday with a mid
to upper level trough forecast to be along the Atlantic sea board
and extend into northern Florida. So far the general global model
consensus is for showers to start around the Lake region and
Atlantic waters off of Palm Beach county Friday evening, with the
front and associated showers moving southward Friday night with
isolated to scattered showers mainly impacting the Atlantic metro
areas and Atlantic waters. By Saturday afternoon the cold front
could enter the Florida Straits, although strong northeast winds
building into the region behind the front could over run along the
boundary and produce some shower activity. In addition the
aforementioned upper level trough axis is forecast to be across
South Florida and Atlantic waters and that could contribute to
some synoptic forcing for shower activity, with isolated to
scattered showers forecast for Saturday across the Atlantic waters
and eastern peninsula. A clearing trend is forecast for Sunday. A
cooling trend is forecast through the weekend, but thus far is
only forecast to be a few degrees cooler than climatology.
MARINE...
East northeast winds in the 15 to 20 knot range are expected today
across portions of the Gulf and Atlantic waters and Biscayne Bay
with a precautionary statement in effect for all these waters
except the near shore Gulf waters. Similar conditions will
persist into early Thursday morning.
A cold front is forecast to pass across the regional waters Friday
night with forecast northerly winds building to near 20 knots or
just over and seas building through this period. Hazardous seas in
excess of 7 feet are forecast across the Atlantic and Gulf stream
waters by Saturday morning and forecast to persist through late
Sunday.
A long period northeast swell is forecast to enter the Atlantic
waters on Saturday and mainly impact the waters east of Palm
Beach county. This could lead to the potential for beach erosion
and minor coastal flooding at high tide. Will assess these hazards
once guidance is consistent with timing.
BEACH FORECAST...
A high risk of rip currents will continue into early Thursday. The
combination of northeast winds and seas of 4 to 5 feet across the
Atlantic waters will continue to contribute to a high risk of rip
currents across the Atlantic coast beaches today and tonight. A
high risk of rip currents will continue through 12z Thursday, at
that time the winds and seas are forecast to slowly subside with
a more moderate risk of rip currents. A high risk of Atlantic rip
currents will return over the weekend with increasing winds and
seas associated with a frontal passage.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 83 72 84 68 / 20 20 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 84 74 83 70 / 20 20 20 20
Miami 85 73 84 70 / 20 20 20 20
Naples 87 67 85 66 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
UPDATE...27/JT
DISCUSSION...60/BD
MARINE...60/BD
AVIATION...27/JT
BEACH FORECAST...60/BD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Latest water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis shows
southwesterly flow over the Central Plains with a ridge to our
east and a trough axis extending from western Wyoming into western
AZ. At the surface, low pressure was centered over the Texas
Panhandle with a quasi-stationary front extending northeast across
central and northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and into far
southeast Iowa. A few elevated thunderstorms continue to develop north
of the surface front where southwesterly 850mb flow continues to
increase. We expect at least a chance of continued showers and
isolated thunderstorms near/north of the boundary through the day
as the sfc low drifts northeast along the boundary into better
theta-e airmass which is supported in the latest CAMs. A stronger
northern stream shortwave will drop through this evening providing
continued upper level support but also pushing the surface front
south of the region and out of our area this evening.
Surface high pressure will build into the region on Thursday as
upper level heights build in advance of an approaching upper
level ridge. This upper level ridge will remain over the Central
Plains into Friday providing above normal temperatures to the
area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
By Friday night, the above mentioned upper level ridge axis will
shift east of the area while a closed mid level low over the Four
Corners region opens and slides northeast. Will continue small
chance for pcpn as shortwave energy briefly passes through early
next week. Overall, temperatures look to remain much above normal
through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Expect a period of MVFR ceilings today at KOMA and KLNK, with
those most likely prior to mid afternoon. Pcpn chances are the
highest south of those two sites, so for now will not include
mention in TAFs. Generally VFR conditions are expected at KOFK.
East or northeast winds will turn to the north through the
afternoon.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1120 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Passage of a cold front early on Thursday will herald a return of
more seasonable temperature to the Upper Ohio Valley Region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid and high clouds generally reside across the northern two-
thirds of the area this morning and primarily north of I-70. These
will continue to slowly advance northward through the day as a
warm front slowly lifts northward. Model RH projections suggest
most areas near Pittsburgh should see a breakup of mid clouds by
around early afternoon, while the breakup farther northward could
take a couple more hours. With abundant sunshine in areas that do
manage to breakout, temperatures should again skyrocket across
much of Ohio, West Virginia, and southwest Pennsylvania. This
should easily get all of these areas at least into the upper 70s
and lower 80s, which is 20-25 degrees above normal for this time
of the year. There is more information in the climate section of
this product on records.
Behind the warm front, low level lapse rates are increasing late
this morning into the afternoon. This should start to allow some
stronger momentum to mix down to the surface. This is generally
well-depicted in the HRRR and already starting to occur on a local
basis vis-a-vis the recent 16 kt gust at PIT. Wind gusts have thus
been increased a bit this afternoon to account for this along the
lines of the HRRR. Fries
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
By tonight...the aforementioned trough/associated surface front
will rapidly increase precip probability as moisture flows through
the frontal zone with support via increasing overall ascent and
frontal convergence. No real changes were needed for an escalation
to categorical numbers outside of temporal trend adjustments. Progged
instability remains insufficient for thunder; hence, a continued
forecast-omission.
Precip chances will fall abruptly on Thursday as the front shunts
the moisture feed south and east of the region, although some
showers will remain possible, especially over northern zones,
until passage of the mid level trough axis on Thursday eve.
Meanwhile, cold advection will drive temperature downward with
highs Friday expected to be 5 to 10 degrees under the averages.
Warmer air seeping out of the midwest and improved insolation may
support slight moderation on Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure under northerly flow aloft, due to high-
amplitude Mississippi Valley Ridging and Western Atlantic
troughing, is forecast to maintain dry weather and seasonably cool
temperature for the start of the new week.
As mid week approaches, an upper trough digging out of Western Canada
is projected to shunt the weakening ridge eastward, thus
moderating Upper Ohio temperature. An increase in precip chances
will follow with the encroachment of that systems cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging should maintain mainly VFR conditions through today, though
an encroaching surface front could result in increased mid level
clouds or stratocu north of I 80.
.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a Thursday cold front and in subsequent
cold NW flow through early Friday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures are forecast near record values tomorrow.
Pittsburgh, PA...Forecast 77, Record 78 (1933), Normal 57
Zanesville, OH...Forecast 81, Record 79 (1987), Normal 59
Morgantown, WV...Forecast 80, Record 81 (2004), Normal 59
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Area remains under southwesterly flow aloft as upper trof continues
to split to our west. Possibly some smaller scale vorticity being
ejected out of the southwestern trof but is difficult to discern in
satellite imagery at this hour. HRRR suggests a piece of energy
lifts out of the panhandles and into our forecast area from sunrise
through around the noon hour, with other short range models
indicating redevelopment generally along and south of I-70 for the
mid to late afternoon hours. These storms would have a bit more
instability to work with, and more time to better erode some of the
cap across the central/southern cwa. Probably better chance for a
stronger storm with the afternoon convection. Just not a tremendous
amount of lift of any one kind to get storms going. Some
frontogenesis around 850mb, but strongest lingers well behind the
surface boundary and lags the better moisture. Not anticipating
much for coverage with lack of lift, but given around 1000j/kg of
cape and 20-35kts of unidirectional shear and steeper mid level lapse
rates, could bring some low end marginally severe hail. Rain
chances end quickly by midnight as wave passing to the north and
east sweeps the surface front thorough the forecast area and
southeast by 06z. Highs today should still reach into the upper 60s
north to low 70s south.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Next several periods bring rather tranquil and mild conditions. Weak
high pressure at the surface becomes a persistent feature over
Missouri from Thursday afternoon into the early portions of the
weekend as the main jet remains well north of the region and the
upper low over the Southwest slowly weakens. After stratus works out
of east central Kansas Thursday morning, clear skies anticipated
into at least late in the night as modest subsidence builds in
aloft. Upper flow backing to a more westerly direction brings
increasing and thickening high cloud. South winds increase slightly
during this period for weak warm air return, but the thicker cloud
should keep much of a rise in check. Models continue to suggest the
remnants of the wave making their way in some fashion over the
Central Plains in the late weekend. Still limited moisture and
instability as well as the weak nature of the forcing keeps
precipitation chances low. Somewhat stronger forcing may occur early
next week with another modified cold front working its way southeast
over the western CONUS ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
Showers moving toward terminals and have kept as VC at this hour
given coverage. MVFR cigs still forecast to develop mid morning
and continue through the forecast, with NAM giving cigs blo 1000ft
agl overnight but think this is overdone. May see some drizzle
late at TOP/FOE before clouds clear and have started with BR for
the overnight hours once thunder moves south.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
315 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
At 3 PM, skies were mostly cloudy across the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. Despite these clouds, temperatures have been able to
climb into the mid and upper 50s north of Interstate 94 and into
the lower and mid 60s for the remainder of the area. Weak 700 mb
frontogenesis has aided in the development of scattered showers
across parts of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Further
west another short wave trough was producing a few sprinkles
across southwest Minnesota.
For tonight, the 02.12z models are in good agreement that the
700 mb frontogenesis will quickly wane across southwest Wisconsin
and northeast Iowa late this afternoon. As a result, removed the
rain shower chances for this evening. Meanwhile the models are
struggling on whether any rain can reach the ground with the short
wave trough moving out of southwest Minnesota. The soundings
continue to show that much of the lift associated with this wave
goes to saturating the air mass above 800 mb. Since there have been
limited reports of sprinkles to our west this afternoon, opted to
keep the forecast dry for now. This would fit in well with the
latest HRRR and RAP model solutions.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
On Thursday night and Friday morning, a ridge of high pressure at
both the surface and aloft will build across the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. This ridge will then remain across the region
through Sunday night. The 925 mb temperatures will warm into the
9 to 12C range on Friday, 12 to 15C range on Saturday, and around
12C on Sunday. These temperatures are 1 to 2 standard deviations
above normal. The model guidance looked to be too cool through
this time period, so bumped them up anywhere from 1 to 5F (the
warmest temperatures will be along and west of the Mississippi
River). Even by doing that, we still may be too conservative with
the high temperatures on Saturday. If the latest ECMWF verifies on
Saturday with its 925 mb temperatures around 15C (which is where
they were on Tuesday afternoon), there will be the potential for a
few record highs to be either tied or broken.
From late Sunday night through Tuesday night, there is a 20 to
30 percent of rain showers in the forecast grids. This is
associated with an upper level trough and surface cold front
moving the through the region. If the 02.12z model guidance
verifies, we may be able to confine these rain chances to Monday
and Monday night. Temperatures behind this cold front will be in
the 50s which is still slightly warmer than normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at KLSE/KRST through 03.18Z with
mainly periods of mid-high level clouds. There could be a brief
lowering of clouds this evening and overnight as another weak
disturbance moves across the region. No nocturnal fog in the
current TAFs, but something to watch if enough clearing can occur
after 03.06Z. To counteract any clearing, northwesterly winds
above the inversion remain elevated around 15 kts. Not enough
confidence to include any reductions in visibility at this time.
Light northerly winds into this evening will slowly shift to the
west-northwest by Thursday morning.
&&
.CLIMATE...Saturday
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
With the high temperatures forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s
(potentially even warmer if the ECMWF verifies warmer aloft),
there will be the potential for a few record high temperatures to
be either tied or broken on Saturday. Here are some of the record
high temperatures for November 5th.
Austin MN - 71F in 2008
Charles City IA - 71F in 1945
Fayette IA - 73F in 1895
La Crosse WI - 71F in 1924
Medford WI - 70F in 1938
Prairie du Chien WI - 74F in 2008 and 2015
Rochester MN - 70F in 1893
Sparta WI - 75F in 2008
Winona MN - 74F in 2008 and 2015
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
CLIMATE...BOYNE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
659 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across southern New England Thursday and
bring a period of showers, especially across northern MA. The
attending front will move off the coast Thursday evening followed
by much cooler and blustery weather Friday. A weak cold front
sweeps through over the weekend, followed by another front toward
midweek. Otherwise, high pressure brings fair and seasonable
weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 pm update...
Zone of altocu across northern MA, but still lots of clear skies
or thin cirrus over Srn New England. Lower thicker clouds over
Western and Central NY pushing east, which should move into
Western MA/CT around 11 pm and to Eastern MA by 2 am. Note also
that the 21Z HRRR uses a light east wind to bring an area of
fog/stratus onshore into Eastern MA including BOS. However,
no clouds noted on satellite where the HRRR shows the clouds at
23Z. So we will leave out any fog at this time.
This update has adjusted sky cover and cloud bases to match these
conditions. No other significant changes.
Previous discussion...
Frontal wave moves east from the Gt Lakes tonight. Deeper moisture
and best forcing for ascent will be across western and upstate NY
where focus for rain will be. It should remain mostly dry through
the night with just a low risk for a few showers spilling into NW
and northern MA very late tonight. Low temps above normal in the
upper 40s and lower 50s with mostly cloudy skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday...
Frontal wave tracks across SNE during the day but exact track is
uncertain and this will have an impact on temps across the north
and how widespread showers will be. GFS and ECMWF have track near
the Mass Pike while NAM and RGEM are further north near the NH
border. Most of the GEFS members favor a more southern track so we
based the forecast on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF.
Best forcing will be along and north of the low track which
suggests most widespread showers will be north of the Mass Pike
where PoPs increased to categorical. Showers will become more
scattered closer to the south coast but expect all areas to see
some rainfall with frontal passage. Rain moves in before midday in
northern MA with a near washout possible for a time with showers
developing in the afternoon south of the pike and possibly not til
late day near south coast. This is a quick moving system which
will limit rainfall amounts to 0.25-0.50" in northern MA
decreasing to 0.10" or less near the south coast. Elevated
instability parameters are marginal and it is possible low level
jet may remain south of New Eng so thunder potential is low. Just
a low risk of an isold rumble of thunder, mainly south of the Mass
Pike.
Temps are tricky Thu and will depend on the exact track of the low
with a sharp N-S temp gradient likely. Based on the forecast low
track, temps may remain in the 50s across northern MA north of the
low, with highs well into the 60s and possibly approaching 70
degrees across portions of NE CT/RI and SE MA where it may remain
dry into early afternoon. Falling temps late in the day after
wind shift.
Thursday night...
Low pres moves east of New Eng dragging cold front to the south
Thu evening. Any lingering showers in the east will end in the
evening followed by partial clearing overnight. However, low
clouds will linger in the east. N/NW winds will become gusty with
gusts 20-25 mph and up to 30 mph Cape/Islands. Lows upper 30s to
mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Big Picture...
Longwave pattern shows a ridge in the Western USA and trough over
the Northeast. Shortwave pattern shows ridges moving eastward from
the Western USA but de-amplifying as they reach the Eastern USA.
Shortwave troughs cross New England Friday-Saturday-Sunday, then
again toward midweek. Model mass fields are similar Friday and
Saturday. Small differences develop with the shortwave moving over
our area Sunday and off to the east on Monday.
Moisture fields are limited through early next week. Upper contour
fields start the long term a little cooler than normal, then trend
milder early next week. Expect seasonably cool trending to
seasonably warm.
Details...
Friday... Upper trough sweeps across with surface low from the
northwest bringing colder and drier air to the region. Expect skies
to start either clear or clearing during this day. Diurnal clouds
likely especially over Western/Central MA. Mixing reaches about
900mb with temps aloft supporting max temps in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Winds in the mixed layer will be around 20 knots, possibly 25
knots near the shoreline.
Saturday-Sunday... One shallow shortwave crosses Saturday, and a
deeper one on Sunday. The result will be fair weather. Patchy
clouds, especially in Northern MA, but just isolated showers. Temps
in the mixed layer will support max temps upper 40s and lower 50s.
Overnight temps should also be seasonably cool, so expect upper 20s
and 30s.
Monday through Wednesday... High pressure builds over the region
with fair skies. Brisk north wind on Monday as the high approaches,
then lighter wind Tuesday-Wednesday. Generally dry weather with the
best chance of showers coming with the upper trough Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Thursday Night/...
Tonight...Moderate-High confidence.
VFR with cloud bases around 4500 feet moving in from the west
11pm-2am. Patchy fog still possible, but the increasing sky cover
will work against that.
Thursday...Moderate confidence. Lowering to MVFR in developing
showers from north to south during the day. Showers reach south
coast after 18z. Areas of IFR may develop as winds turn northerly
behind a cold front. Best chance of IFR will be across northern
zones. Low risk of an isolated t-storm.
Thursday night...Moderate confidence. Areas of MVFR/IFR cigs in
the evening along with sct showers, mainly east, then improving to
VFR from west to east. MVFR cigs may persist all night SE New Eng
and especially Cape/Islands. Post-frontal NW winds will gust to
20-25 kt and possibly up to 30 kt across the Cape/Islands.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Uncertainty in timing of
lower cigs and how low cigs get.
KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Uncertainty in timing of
lower cigs and how low cigs get.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
VFR through the period. North-northwest winds gusting 20-25 knots
Friday and Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Thursday Night/...High confidence.
Tonight...Light winds and seas.
Thursday...Increasing SW winds developing, mainly south coastal
waters where gusts 20-25 kt possible later in the afternoon.
Across NE waters, easterly winds will shift to the north in the
afternoon with gusts to 20 kt by late day. Showers developing
across NE waters by midday with showers not reaching south coastal
waters until late in the day.
Thursday night...Increasing N/NW winds with gusts 25-30 kt
possible, especially eastern waters with building seas. SCA issued
for outer waters as well as nearshore eastern waters. May need to
expand SCA for rest of waters. Showers move offshore in the
evening.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday... High pressure builds from the west. NNW winds will gust to
25 knots on most waters. Seas maintain at 5-9 feet on the Eastern
Waters and Southern Outer Waters, subsiding Friday night. Small
Craft Advisory expected on most waters.
Saturday... Winds and seas will be below Small Craft thresholds.
Sunday-Monday... Cold front moves offshore. NNW winds increase again
Sunday with 25 knot gusts. These winds linger into Monday. Seas
build to 5-7 feet on the outer waters Sunday night and Monday. A
Small Craft Advisory may be needed.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for
ANZ231-232-250-251-254.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for
ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
432 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will move along a stalled frontal boundary
and over our region tonight and Thursday, producing several periods
of rain. It will remain mild through tonight before cooler air
spreads across the region later Thursday and Friday. There will be a
return to drier weather and more seasonable temperatures following
the wake of the cold front for the end of the week and the upcoming
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Late afternoon surface analysis shows a stalled frontal zone
stretching across southwest Ontario and along the north shore of
Lake Ontario into the Saint Lawrence Valley. This feature will be
the focus for our weather for the next 36 hours, bringing several
periods of rain tonight into early Thursday as several baroclinic
waves run along the stalled frontal zone.
Regional radar imagery showing a concentrated area of showers over
the east end of Lake Erie, and short term high resolution guidance
such as the HRRR show this area of rain spreading east across the
Niagara Frontier into the Rochester area as far east as about Oswego
county through the course of the late afternoon and evening. This
first batch of rain will be relatively brief, and deliver a tenth to
two tenths of an inch of rain. The Southern Tier and North Country
will see less rain through the evening, with just a few scattered
light showers.
An anomalously warm and moist airmass is in place across western NY,
with the KBUF 12Z sounding showing 850 mb temperatures about 12C,
and PW values about 1.2 inches. Both of these values are above the
90th percentile, and near the daily records, per the SPC sounding
climatology page.
Another area of widespread rain event will develop overnight and
continue through Thursday morning as the next wave of low pressure
moves along the frontal zone. The parent trough will slide eastward
from central Canada toward the Hudson Bay, a sharp shortwave
cresting the west coast ridge in British Columbia this morning will
dive toward the Great Lakes by Thursday morning. As this wave digs
toward the lower Great Lakes by Thursday morning, it will combine
with the stalled frontal boundary and increase the moisture
advection into the region on strengthening southwesterly low-level
jet. Meanwhile western NY will be located in the right entrance
region of a 120kt H25 jet by 12Z Thursday, along with increasing low-
level frontogensis, supporting deep synoptic lift and ample moisture
to work with. The combination of quality dynamics and moisture will
support the widespread rainfall. As the wave moves east of the area
during the afternoon, rain will taper off to scattered showers from
west to east.
We should see a few hour break in precipitation as the driest air
crosses the region Thursday afternoon, but as we approach early
Thursday evening, the steepening lapse rates aloft along with low-
level moisture under upper-level trough will cross the region. This
will support some lake and topography enhanced showers developing on
the northwesterly flow. These will likely focus along the Chautauqua
ridge downstream from Lake Erie, from Rochester across the northern
Finger Lakes downstream from Lake Ontario, and the North Country on
the upslope flow into the Tug Hill and northern Adirondacks.
Rainfall totals for the entire event will range from a half an inch
to just over three quarters of an inch.
Temperatures on Thursday will likely be at or near the daytime high
first thing in the morning, with the northwesterly cold advection
keeping us from seeing much, if any, of a daytime rise in
temperatures. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s Thursday morning,
with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s by Thursday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Shower activity will continue to taper off during the course of
Thursday night, with lingering showers over the North Country mixing
with and changing to some wet snow showers as colder air pours in
from eastern Canada. Otherwise, while the bulk of the mid and upper
level moisture will be stripped away, a strengthening subsidence
inversion will keep a wealth of moisture trapped in the low levels.
This moisture will be lifted into a deck of widespread cloud cover
by a northerly upslope flow regime that will become established in
the wake of the departing frontal wave.
Ridging become established over the middle of the country on Friday,
while its corresponding surface high will stretch from the Great
Lakes region back to the southern Plains. While this will provide
dry weather on Friday, lingering clouds cover will be slow to clear,
as a fair amount of low level moisture will likely be trapped
beneath a strong subsidence inversion. This will likely retard any
true clearing until midday or the afternoon. Further aggravating the
clearing will be the cold air advection pouring due south from Lake
Ontario. The fresh Canadian airmass will also mean a much cooler
day, as afternoon temperatures will not make it out of the 40s.
By the weekend, our region will then find itself between an
impressive ridge centered over the nations mid section and the
backside of a trough over Maine/Canadian Maritimes. While this
will keep us from enjoying the benefits of very mild air over the
Mid Western states...we should not have to deal with any
significant weather either. The only feature we will have to watch
will be a robust shortwave that will dive southeast into the
backside of the aforementioned trough. This will support the
passage of a moisture starved sfc frontal boundary, with only a
minimal chc for any rain or wet snow showers for the Finger Lakes
and Eastern Lake Ontario regions.
The GFS ensembles have been fairly consistent with backing the
western edge of the sharp upper trough across New England a little
further west to the eastern half of New York State...with an
embedded shortwave poised to cross over that region during the day,
while the ECMWF keeps the western edge of the aforementioned upper
trough and embedded shortwave east of New York State. Due to the
uncertainty in the placement of the aforementioned features... will
keep slight chance pops in for a few showers across the North
country...possibly mixed with some wet snow across the higher
elevations of the Tug Hill and Western Dacks. This will also set up
a fairly decent west to east temperature gradient...with western New
York on the warmer side of the envelope seeing highs in the lower
50s...while areas across the North country will experience lower
temperatures as highs only reaching the mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday night through Monday night...an upper level ridge cresting
over the Northeast combined with surface high pressure will provide
tranquil weather.
A slow moving cold front will approach our region from the Upper
Great Lakes on Tuesday evening. This should encourage continued
warming ahead of the front with precipitation holding off until
after nightfall. GFS is a slower than ECMWF but this may be the
greater amplitude of the GFS, and may be more realistic solution
based on the seasonal conditions. The cold front should move through
the area Tuesday night and Wednesday with some lingering post-
frontal showers on Wednesday.
Monday and Tuesday will have highs in the 50s with lows in the 30s,
coldest across the Southern Tier and Tug Hill. Wednesday will see
mid 40s to near 50 in the frontal regime.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The first area of steadier showers will spread east across KBUF-KIAG-
KROC through the late afternoon and early evening. Low levels are
still unsaturated however, so CIGS/VSBY will remain primarily VFR
with just a brief dip to MVFR possible in the heavier showers.
Flight conditions will deteriorate overnight through Thursday morning
with widespread IFR conditions likely for Thursday morning rush at
the airports. Another area of rain will overspread the region
tonight, peaking in intensity and coverage by around 12Z Thursday
morning. Clouds will thicken and lower overnight becoming MVFR. Then
expect widespread IFR ceilings, and possibly even IFR visibility,
roughly between 06Z and 15Z depending on the exact TAF site. CIGS
should start to improve by Thursday afternoon, but low VFR to MVFR
cigs will likely remain in the moist northerly upslope flow off the
warm lakes.
Outlook...
Friday...Improving to VFR.
Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A frontal boundary will remain draped across the Eastern Great Lakes
today and tomorrow. This will be a weak boundary, with no strong
winds along the front. It will not be until after a surface low
passes to the east of the lakes Thursday that cooler air spreads
southward across the Eastern Great Lakes, with winds and waves
picking up, and likely nearing small craft advisory criteria by
Thursday night.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...RSH/TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
651 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stretching across southern Lower Michigan and Lake
Erie will drift southeast through Thursday as low pressure moves
across the lower Great Lakes along the front. The cold front will
clear the area by Thursday night and high pressure will build in
from the west and remain over the Great Lakes region through at
least Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
With this early evening update have made a couple of changes.
Expanded the mention of thunder to the entire area for a while
tonight. With the moisture return we have had and the amount of
forcing/support aloft with this system...could very well see
embedded thunder into the overnight. Also raised minimum
temperatures a few degrees as front will have little progress
southeast until closer to morning...keeping more of the area in
the warm sector. We will monitor the timing of the showers into
the area. The HRRR seems to have a decent handle on the present
situation...and storms are filling in across northern IN. Will
still go with mid evening for Toledo and toward midnight for CLE.
Previous discussion...A cold front draped across southern Lower
Michigan into Illinois will slowly drift southeastward as a low
moves northeast through the area, allowing for increased cloud
cover and rain chances tonight. Rain is presently located all
across Lower Michigan and the Chicagoland areas and is drifting
eastward. Given the warm temperatures from today and the increase
in moisture ahead of the front, will probably see precipitation
fill in as it moves into Ohio and with modest instability could
even get a rumble of thunder to move in as well. Given current
model guidance, the previously inherited forecast, and current
radar observations, categorical pops seems appropriate for tonight
with rain reaching the I-75 corridor around sunset and area along
the I-71 corridor and the lakeshore after midnight tonight.
Rainfall totals will likely be around a half an inch of rain with
some spots potentially getting more if thunderstorm coverage does
increase.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will be moving southeast and move through the area
by Thursday night. Rain chances and temperatures will decrease
along with frontal passage. In the wake of the cold front passage,
northwest winds and colder temperatures across the lake could
allow from some lake-effect clouds and potentially a shower to
linger in parts of NE OH and NW PA Thursday night. Otherwise, high
pressure will build in behind the cold front for the rest of the
forecast period, allowing for dry conditions and for temperatures
to sit around normal in the 50s. Should be a nice fall and first
weekend of November with the dry weather and cool, crisp
temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Little change in the long term forecast today. Both models have
high pressure centered over the Great Lakes on Sunday then shifting
to the east coast on Monday. The next weather maker for the area
will be a cold frontal passage sometime on Tuesday. The new 12z
models are in better agreement with this system than before. Will
bump up precip chances some from where they were but still nothing
higher than chance wording. Some instability showers are likely
downwind of the lake into Wednesday but western areas will dry out.
Readings will average a little above normal during the period with
Wednesday being the coldest of the days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
The surface front continues to drift north away from the area.
This has allowed most of the lower and mid level clouds to exit
the area and am expecting mainly just high clouds through sunset.
Precip will begin to arrive after 00z and should push into the CLE
area around midnight. No thunder mention for now but a few rumbles
of thunder cannot be ruled out. Will time this precip southeast
across the forecast area overnight with conditions becoming MVFR
shortly after the precip starts. Cigs and possibly VSBYs will dip
to IFR late tonight. The front will reach CLE around daybreak and
will be south of the area by 18z. Expect the precip to end behind
the front with cigs lifting back to MVFR by the end of the TAF
period. Light SW flow will become N to NW behind the front.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Thursday night into Friday for
northeast Ohio/northwest Pennsylvania.
&&
.MARINE...
A front north of Lake Erie will push south across the lake Thursday
morning. Will hold off on a small craft as the new guidance is
showing peak sustained winds of around 15 knots. Later shifts will
have to watch this situation. High pressure will build in quickly
from the west for the end of the week. This will cause winds to
quickly diminish tomorrow night. High pressure will pass to the
south late Friday which will cause winds to return to the west.
Another weaker front will cross the lake sometime on Saturday and
may briefly flip the flow back to the northwest. Other than that
the flow through the end of the period will be westerly at under 15
knots most of the time.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Oudeman/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Kubina
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
327 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Plume of moisture can be seen on water vapor imagery being drawn
from the tropical Pacific up into the Great Lakes, steered northward
by an upper low over the Desert Southwest and ahead of another
trough dropping through Central Canada. PW values around 1.4 over
Southeast Michigan tonight seem like a reasonable estimate based on
model data and upstream RAOB observations (KDTX was already 1.3 at
12Z). The moisture will have plenty of forcing to work with as the
frontal boundary over the area begins to tighten and sink slowly
southward. This will occur as right entrance region forcing from a
jet streak over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada becomes
positioned overhead, helping to prompt a good FGEN response later
this evening and overnight. Upper shortwave moving through the area
at 3PM was generating an area of rain with embedded thunder. This
area will exit east with the wave over the next few hours, leaving
some uncertainty with precipitation coverage through mid-evening as
subsidence settles in behind the upper wave. Models show other
forcing mechanisms ramping up during this time-frame (21-03Z) as
upper jet forcing works into the area and as isentropic ascent
(centered around the 294K surface) increases along the frontal
boundary. Past several runs of the HRRR have kept the area fairly
dry through the evening, a very plausible scenario, and pops were
lowered during this time. Subsidence will eventually work east later
in the evening, and expect the next round of rain with embedded
thunder to begin and last into the night. Lapse rates look
sufficiently steep to continue a low-chance mention for thunder
through the night. Cooler and drier air pushing into to the area
behind the front will end chances for precipitation from northwest
to southeast, with activity expected to be just out of the area
around sunrise. Patchy fog was also added through tomorrow morning.
Fog may occur this evening in between rounds of rain/thunder as
winds remain light, mix out as rain arrives, with a few patches
reforming late after the rain finally exits again.
Secondary cold front will work down through the area Thursday,
however drier air will provide only a very low chance for showers
north of M-59 during the afternoon/evening. Surface high pressure
will build into the area Thursday night and early Friday in response
to strong 588dm upper ridge amplifying over the central CONUS. This
will provide dry weather for Friday and Friday night. Max
temperatures will run much more seasonable tomorrow in the mid 50s
to low 60s, then fall into the low 50s behind the secondary push of
cold air Friday
A continuation of dry and above normal temps are on tap for the
upcoming weekend into the beginning of next week. Surface high
pressure and an amplified upper level ridge over the central plains
will hold over the area bringing pleasant weather conditions as high
temps remain in the middle to upper 50s. As the ridging and surface
high shift east by next week a weak disturbance has potential to
move across the northern Great Lakes region at the end of the
extended period. This has the potential to bring the next
precipitation chances to the area.
&&
.MARINE...
A frontal boundary draped across the region will provide a focus for
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm through tonight.
In the meantime, a weak ridge of surface high pressure will build
into the northern Great Lakes down to around the Straits. This will
cause relatively light northerly to easterly flow to develop
immediately north of the frontal boundary. Northwesterly gradient
flow will increase modestly on Thursday in response to strong
surface high pressure building in to the western Great Lakes. This
may lead to a period of small craft advisory conditions for the
nearshore waters of the southern Lake Huron basin late Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall will continue across areas generally along and
north of M-59 through the late afternoon hours. Additional rain
will then develop along a stalled frontal boundary by early tonight,
with rain continuing through the early morning period before
tapering off. Total rainfall amounts ranging between a half and
three quarters of an inch can be expected areawide through this
time. Dry weather returns Thursday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
AVIATION...
Initial round of rainfall containing embedded thunder on track to
lift across the northern TAF sites /PTK northward/ through the mid-
late afternoon period. Upstream observations in support of a period
of MVFR/low VFR conditions with this rainfall, with enough evidence
to include a VCTS mention at FNT/MBS. Detroit corridor remains
at the edge of this moisture, favoring simply a thickening canopy
of mid cloud /cigs above 6-7k ft/. Stronger surge of moisture
will enter the SE Michigan airspace after 00z, with model guidance
holding firm in depicting a steady downward progression into IFR
as rainfall increases over the course of several hours thereafter.
Favored positioning within this moisture axis north of a frontal
boundary certainly supports this expected trend. Period of LIFR
conditions certainly plausible, particularly as a surface wave
lifts along the boundary 05z-10z. Improving conditions mid-late
morning Thursday as moisture pushes east and a weak northerly
gradient emerges.
For DTW...Low level moisture primary holds north and west of the
airspace through the afternoon period, limiting the potential for
CIGS to fall below 5000 ft. Downward trend in ceiling heights
thereafter, with restrictions moving into IFR/LIFR overnight. Light
NE wind may tend become variable at times through the afternoon with
a frontal boundary in the vicinity. Light northeast winds in place
through tonight.
//DTW Threshold Probabilities...
* Low for ceiling below 5000 ft prior to 00z, then high thereafter.
* Low for ceiling below 200 feet and/or visibility below 1/2 mile
tonight into Thursday morning.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HLO/SS
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....MR
AVIATION.....MR
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
148 PM PDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will persist through at least the
weekend, so dry conditions are expected. Patchy dense fog will
develop across the San Joaquin Valley each night and morning until
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Sunny skies prevailing across our area this
afternoon as a dry upper ridge pushed into Central CA overnight.
The departing upper trough which brought some light precipitation
to parts of our area on Tuesday pushed east overnight, but
interaction with the strengthening ridge produced increased near
surface winds over the southern portion of our cwfa overnight
which inhibited fog formation south of Fresno County. Dense fog
was limited this morning to a thin strip along the SR 99 corridor
between Madera and Atwater. This fog all dissipated by 11 am PDT
this morning, and we allowed the Dense Fog Advisory which had
been in effect for the Central San Joaquin Valley to expire at
that time.
Today`s HRRR has not been as aggressive with fog formation in the
valley tonight as was for this morning during yday/s runs. One
possible culprit is that circulation around an upper low which cut
off from the departed trough over southern AZ continues to
interact with the ridge and produce enough of an increase in near
surface winds to produce some mixing in the lower atmosphere. The
low is progged by the 12Z WRF to remain over southern AZ near the
Sonora border through Friday morning then lift northeast toward
the four corners area by Saturday. The upper ridge is expected to
strengthen over central CA on Thursday and Friday resulting in a
warming trend across our area with daytime highs in the valley on
Friday expected to be 4-7 deg F above normal. RH progs are
indicating that any tropcial moisture being pulled up by the low
to our southeast will remain well to the east of our area and not
having any impact for our area. An approaching upper trough will
begin to break down the ridge on Saturday and turn the upper flow
onshore, but daytime temepratures will remain above normal on
Saturday. Only concern for the next three days will be the impact
of late night and early morning fog in the San Joaquin Valley on
temepratures and travel. The strengthening ridge will make Friday
more favorable for morning fog in the valley than Thursday, but
the potential for widespread dense fog is low.
Medium range models and their ensemble means are in good
agreement with the next trough splitting as it approaches CA and
pushes most of the energy with it through the PAC NW and far
northern CA on Saturday Night with RH progs indicating the deeper
moisture now remaining well to the north of our area. We have
therefore removed any mention for precipitation chances for our
area for this weekend. Some high clouds, increased winds and
cooler daytime temperatures are likely though. Another upper ridge
is progged to build into CA for the early portion of next week
with mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures prevail
while late night and morning fog return to the San Joaquin Valley.
Another trough is progged to push through the PAC NW and far
northern CA on Tuesday Night and Wednesday but moisture and
dynamics sufficient for precipitation are again expected to remain
to the north of our area.
&&
.AVIATION...In the San Joaquin Valley, areas MVFR visibilities
due to haze for next 24 hours. However, ifr with isolated patches of
lifr in fog developing 12z-18z Thu. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail in the central CA interior during the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
public...DS
avn/fw...BSO
synopsis...BSO
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
416 PM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area late tonight into
Thursday, bringing showers and possibly a thunderstorm, along with a
transition to cooler conditions. A dry area of high pressure will
slowly move through the region from Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The overall consensus of the models has been to slow the
progression of the cdfnt and main pcpn shield for tonight. However
area of convection along the IL/IN border is not being handled
well by the current models. The 14Z run of the HRRR had it and
pushed it e across the ne corner of the cwa early this evening.
The latest runs have dropped this scenario however. If the pcpn
holds together is should reach IN/OH border between 23Z-00Z. So
will bring some chance PoPs to the nw around that time along with
a slight chance of thunder.
For the remainder of the night, the higher PoPs will remain to the
NW of the fa as the pcpn works ne across nrn IN into NW OH. Kept
some chc PoPs across the nw counties due to their vicinity to the
pcpn, but areas se of I-71 should stay dry tonight. Some weak
instability lingers across the north tonight.
Temperatures will stay warm only dropping into the lower 60s.
Some locations in Mercer, Auglaize and Hardin counties could drop
into the upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
It looks like the cdfnt will have just entered the nw counties at
sunrise Thursday. This run of the models is not a impressive with
the low level convergence along the front and therefore they are
much for scattered with the pcpn as the period begins. Have backed
off from the categorical PoPs to likely in the north, but this
might still be too high. I was trying not to make too much of a
dramatic change in PoPs as the MOS pops were still high.
As the front drops south tomorrow, pcpn should try to fill in
across the srn counties due to the heating of the day. There
should be enough instability for a possible rumble of thunder.
Highs on Thursday will be much cooler than today, but still a few
degrees above normal. Temperatures will rise a few degrees in the
north before beginning to fail. Southern sections should see more
of a rise reaching the upper 60s before seeing temperatures fall
late in the afternoon.
High pressure will begin to build in Thursday night. Some residual clouds
are forecast to drop through the nly flow. Lows should be 40-45
degrees. High pressure will build in for Friday and the skies will
be mostly sunny. Highs will be more seasonal ranging from the mid
50 to around 60.
Skies will be mostly clear Saturday night and with light winds
lows will drop back into the upper 30s to around 40. There could
be some patchy frost.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad and anomalously strong upper ridge will be in place across
the CONUS Friday. The pattern will be very slow to change, with the
ridge axis moving gradually to the east coast by Tuesday.
An extensive area of surface high pressure will be positioned on the
eastern flank of the upper ridge. The surface high will cover the
eastern CONUS through Monday, providing mostly sunny and dry
conditions for the ILN area. For Tuesday, models indicate the upper
ridge breaking down in response to an upper trough entering the
Great Lakes, while the surface high is pushed to the southeast. A
few showers may develop ahead of a weak cold front reaching northern
Ohio. High pressure will build at the surface behind the front.
daytime high temperatures are expected to drop to near normal levels
for early November while overnight lows remain slightly above normal.
Near normal highs in the mid and upper 50s are expected Friday on
the cool eastern side of the surface high. Above normal highs in the
60s are forecast for Saturday through Tuesday as warm advection and
insolation influence the airmass. After Tuesday, daytime high
temperatures are expected to drop to near normal levels for early
November while overnight lows remain slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the first half of the TAF period. High
clouds will thicken and lower eventually into a mid deck. Off and
on showers will occur well ahead of a cold front. This will
eventually lead to ceilings lowering to MVFR. Winds will gradually
veer. The front will move through late in the TAF period. MVFR
ceilings below 2000 ft will persist behind the boundary and it is
not out of the question that some places could see a period of
IFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will continue Thursday afternoon.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
423 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...No big changes to the short
term forecast. The cold front remains well northwest of the area but
a boundary/maybe pre-frontal trough was located along the river.
With a good layer of dry air across the region, was not sure much of
the rain was reaching the ground. Guidance maintained some low pops,
generally 20-30 percent for a small section of the northwest, opted
to leave the rain in for those areas through the afternoon. The HRRR
seemed to have a good handle on it with the rain tapering off through
the afternoon and things were dissipating.
For tonight, kept the area in the lower 60s. Looks like very light
southerly winds and clouds should keep the area in the 60s
overnight. The boundary starts to move southeastward around the late
afternoon, so thinking highs in the lower to mid 80s was still
good./7/
.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday...At the beginning of the period,
mid/upper level northwest flow will be in place over the region with
a surface cold front poised to the immediate north. While surface
convergence should be sufficient in producing lift along the frontal
boundary as it drops south, very limited moisture will only allow
for a few showers over mainly the northern portions. As the boundary
drops south into central and southern sections, only cloud cover
should be seen.
The airmass moving in behind the front will be very dry as mixed
dewpoints each afternoon drop into the 30s and 40s. This will
translate into minimum relative huumidities at or below 30 percent
for the weekend. While the wind staying less than 10 knots should
not pose a problem, the dryness of the air and fuels should
enough to provide an increasing fire danger.
Mid level ridge axis will shift east Monday allowing southwest flow
to begin increasing moisture aloft. Light easterly surface winds
will maintain the dry air in the lower levels through Monday, but
increasing isentropic ascent over the top of the dry airmass will
erode enough of the dry air for some light rain possibilities over
the southwest sections Tuesday./26/
&&
.AVIATION...Showers continue to develop along a boundary to the
northwest. The activity was training to the northeast and models do
not expect much south or eastward movement. Added some VCSH to GLH
for showers developing to the east of the line and maintained them
through 00z. Expecting VFR conditions to prevail for most sites
through the forecast period. SCT-BKN ceilings around 3500 feet will
likely continue through the afternoon with some mid to high clouds
coming in overnight. Only added fog to HBG for tonight, where
conditions will be more likely for development. There may be some
patchy fog that briefly reduces visibilities to around 5SM, similar
to this morning. The actual cold front was not expected to pass
through the region until Thursday afternoon and evening./7/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 63 83 59 79 / 3 8 12 2
Meridian 59 83 57 79 / 3 12 10 1
Vicksburg 62 85 61 79 / 3 9 13 4
Hattiesburg 60 85 60 82 / 7 6 7 4
Natchez 63 84 63 78 / 3 3 12 4
Greenville 64 83 58 76 / 3 20 18 1
Greenwood 63 84 57 77 / 3 5 16 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
339 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is focused on increasing precipitation
chances late this afternoon into the overnight hours.
Currently, it`s fairly uncomfortable for early November, 02/20z
surface observations reveal dew points well into the mid to upper
60s along with temperatures in the low 80s ahead of the surface
boundary that continues to slowly push eastward off the panhandles.
In response, ML CAPE values across the region are near 2000 to 2500
J/Kg. Earlier, around 19z, a few radar returns cropped up in far
southern Oklahoma, most likely driven by some pre-frontal isentropic
ascent around 305 to 310 K. Will likely see similar isolated
activity through the afternoon ahead of the front. Deep layer shear
across the region is relatively weak to modest, about 20 to 25 kts,
this is in part to weak 700mb flow aloft. However, HRRR soundings
from KFDR and KCDS reveal MLCAPE values approaching 3000 J/Kg
through 03/00z, along with steepening mid-level lapse rates of 6.5
to 7.5 C/Km. This is more than enough to result in rapid updraft
growth along the frontal boundary through this evening. In response,
scattered to isolated strong to severe storms are possible, capable
of severe hail, up to half dollars, and 60 to 70 mph wind gusts. Of
additional concern, into the evening and overnight, will be locally
heavy rainfall. 02/12z sounding from KOUN came back with 1.35 inches
of precipitable water this morning, which is well above the 90th
percentile for climatology.
Through 02/20z, a few updrafts have finally gone west of Childress
just off the Llano Estacado. The last few runs of the HRRR and the
NMM HiRes WRF have done fairly well with the initiation in West
Texas this afternoon. Expect this activity to gradually grow
upstream along the surface boundary eastward through the late
afternoon to early evening hours. Into the evening, some additional
isolated storms may go up along the frontal boundary late this
evening and overnight as it pushes eastward, into central Oklahoma,
from southwestern Oklahoma to the OKC metro and as far north as
Ponca City.
With respect to rainfall, the heaviest rainfall will develop across
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Amounts will range from a
half inch in south central Oklahoma to just over an inch in far
western north Texas. 7 day rainfall amounts are basically zero
across this area, with a few locations receiving under a trace to a
10th over that time period. Therefore, widespread flooding issues
are not anticipated, but locally heavy rainfall in the right
locations, could result in brief flooding of usual suspect areas.
For tomorrow into the weekend, expect relatively dry conditions
through Friday as brief ridging over the southern half of the plains
keeps the approaching western 500mb low parked over the desert
southwest. Into the weekend, rain chances return, primarily late on
Saturday into Sunday, with lingering chances through Tuesday as a
slow evolving 500mb trough lumbers eastward across the central U.S.
Temperatures during this period will be cooler, but still a few
degrees above normal for the time of year, with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s each day.
Kurtz
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 59 71 51 72 / 60 10 0 0
Hobart OK 59 71 52 70 / 50 10 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 63 71 56 70 / 60 30 10 10
Gage OK 50 72 42 73 / 20 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 58 71 46 73 / 40 10 0 0
Durant OK 66 78 59 76 / 60 20 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
25/04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland Oregon
247 PM PDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A dissipating cold front will cross this evening
spreading light rain from west to east across the region. Showers
will follow overnight and early Thursday. Dry weather appears likely
to return Thursday night and Friday. A wetter storm system appears
on tap for Saturday with perhaps another storm system arriving
towards the middle of next week. Temperatures remain mild and
several degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) A sunny afternoon for much
of the area as an upper level ridge begins to give way to a
deepening offshore trough. A cold front has nearly crossed 130W
enroute to cross the PacNW this evening. The front continues to
weaken as it approaches, however, with windy conditions at the coast
and over the waters peaking during the early evening with gusts
around 50 mph at the most exposed locations. Although, now am
having some doubts if we will make it that high given recent HRRR
runs are struggling to show gusts much beyond 40 mph using an 80m
AGL wind proxy.
Rain will spread inland tonight with amounts around 0.25-0.30". The
frontal baroclinic band will be fairly narrow so only a few hours of
steady rain is expected. Showers will trail the front overnight and
early Thursday then taper off rather quickly by mid-tomorrow
afternoon. Snow levels will also remain very high, further
challenging development of an early season snowpack.
The upper trough gives way to a passing upper ridge and dry weather
Thursday afternoon through early Friday evening. Another trough
approaches Friday evening also bringing another front. THis front
appears to be much wetter as it taps into central Pacific moisture.
Additionally the trough is higher amplitude which will result in a
fairly slow moving cold front. That combination could bring multiple
short periods of moderate to heavy rain spanning an 18-24 hour
period from Friday night through Saturday or Saturday night. Rain
amounts could range from 0.50-1.00" with higher amounts possible
depending on model of choice. The ECMWF is holding on to a more
consolidated front while recent runs of the GFS are beginning to
show more of a splitting, and thus weaker, front. In either case,
the upper jet stream will largely run parallel to the front giving
it`s slower motion. Additionally, this will be another situation
where temperatures do not change a significant amount after the
front. So yet again, not much hope for snow building up anywhere
near the passes through Saturday. Temperatures will continue mild
through the short term forecast with lower elevation highs in the
lower to mid 60s with lows in the mid to upper 40s...about 8 to 10
degrees above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)...Models in fairly
decent agreement through much of the long term. Rain looks to
continue through Saturday night as a cold front moves east across
the forecast area, with a few post frontal showers lingering into
Sunday. Weak shortwave ridging looks to then build across the region
late Sunday and Monday which could bring a period of drier weather.
However, models continue to show multiple weak waves moving across
the area during this time so cannot rule out the chance of a shower
or two given that climatological PoPs are generally around 40%. Rain
chances increase late Monday and Tuesday with models showing another
frontal system moving across the Pac NW. As of now, the bulk of the
precip looks to move into western Washington but decided to up PoPs
based on the ensemble guidance. Post frontal showers then continue
into Wednesday, with drier weather likely developing late Wednesday.
/64
&&
.AVIATION...Generally VFR through 02z early this evening. Expect
areas of MVFR conditions to develop between 02z and 08z tonight,
with MVFR conditions likely after 08z and through 18z Thu. Inland
will see areas of MVFR cigs develop after 06z tonight, but still
expect primarily conditions to remain VFR through 18z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR. A chance for temporary MVFR
conditions after 06z tonight through 18z Thu.
&&
.MARINE...Gales continued across the northern waters Thu afternoon,
while over the southern waters winds have eased down to small craft
category. With the front still to move across the coastal waters
late this afternoon and early this evening, expect gale force gusts
still expected until the front move onshore, around 7 pm. Overnight
into Thu winds will slowly diminish, eventually dropping below small
craft criteria late in the day Thu. Steep seas peaking around 15 to
17 ft this afternoon and early evening will drop off some later
tonight into Thu morning. A westerly swell arrives Thu afternoon
pushing seas back up into the upper teens by Thu night.
Next frontal system approaches late Fri, bringing a good chance of
gale force gusts Fri night and Sat. More westerly swell arrives over
the weekend and continue into early next week, potentially keeping
seas in the teens of ft.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters
from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar until 6 PM
PDT Thursday.
&&
$$
Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
www.twitter.com/NWSPortland
This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
338 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows upper low across the southwest
in the process of becoming a cutoff low...while in the northern
stream...a shortwave trough was moving across the eastern Dakotas.
Two main areas of thunderstorms are evident...one from Kansas City
through northern MO and another developing in the TX panhandle.
Surface cold front has moved little so far today...extending from
between HUT/ICT southwest through NW portions of OK. Surface
dewpoints are at or near record levels for this time of year and
this allowed this morning`s low to range in the 60s to lower 70s.
Big question tonight focuses on precipitation chances. Short term
guidance continues to show cold front arriving into NE OK early
this evening accompanied by a scattered to broken line of
showers/tstms. Both the operational and experimental HRRR do not
show much precip developing at all. However there should be enough
lift to support at least some rain across portions of the area
this evening. Will maintain pops as they are for now.
The front takes its time moving through the area...and clouds may
be slow to clear the area for Thursday. There may even be patchy
drizzle early Thu morning given abundant low level
moisture/upglide. Once clouds clear Thu afternoon into
evening...clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s
by Friday morning. Extended forecast looks great...with seasonal
high temps in the 70s and cool mornings...the way it`s supposed to
be in November.
CORFIDI
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 61 71 48 73 / 60 10 0 0
FSM 66 78 53 76 / 30 20 0 0
MLC 64 74 54 75 / 30 10 0 0
BVO 57 71 43 72 / 60 10 0 0
FYV 62 73 45 71 / 30 10 0 0
BYV 62 73 50 70 / 30 20 0 0
MKO 61 74 50 73 / 40 10 0 0
MIO 60 72 47 72 / 50 10 0 0
F10 63 73 50 72 / 50 10 0 0
HHW 64 79 61 76 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....06