Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 11/01/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
606 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016
Latest 19z surface analysis indicated low pressure over eastern
North Dakota. Out ahead of the low pressure system...tight
pressure gradient has produced sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots
and gust 25 to 30 knots per 19z metars.
Surface low will push into southern Ontario Canada tonight. Near
surface boundary layer moisture and strong inversion over forecast
area will allow for low stratus deck of clouds to linger or expand
back into the region. The 31.12z NAM and 31.15z RAP bufkit
soundings suggest vertical motion/lift in the saturated layer
mainly along and north of the Interstate 94 corridor. This will
result in some areas of drizzle across central Wisconsin this
evening. Have introduced area of drizzle across this area this
evening.
A surface cold front tracks into eastern Great Lakes Region by
12z Tuesday and surface ridge builds into eastern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin during the day Tuesday. Subsidence underneath
surface ridge and drier air advecting into the forecast
area...will allow for stratus deck of clouds to erode from west to
east across the forecast area early Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016
Tuesday Night through Thursday...Stalled frontal boundary lying
across southern WI, northern IL, and eastern IA will be worked on
by more shortwave trough energy Wednesday. Having the front aligned
with the southwest flow allows for frontogenetic forcing at various
levels sloping northwest. While the rain chances have been
consistent in the forecast decreasing from 60-70 percent south, to
small chances near I-90, have some concerns that these will all need
to be raised as we approach Wednesday. However, there is quite dry
air in the lowest levels on the north side of the boundary tempering
the desire to raise rain chances at this time. Drying will then move
in for a sunny Thursday as the northwest flow shortwave trough moves
through with a brief and weak cold front.
Upper-level ridging over the north-central CONUS along with broad
surface high pressure will be the dominant weather influence
Thursday night through Sunday. With the ridge axis centered more
over the Northern High Plains through Saturday, our area stays under
northwesterly flow aloft. The 31.12Z GFS brings a shortwave trough
southeastward through Wisconsin late Saturday, with the 31.00Z ECMWF
also hinting at a disturbance over Iowa during this timeframe.
However, a lack of moisture and low-level forcing should preclude
any precipitation from developing. The upper-level ridge axis passes
through on Sunday and moves off to our east as a more potent upper-
level trough moves from the Pacific Northwest towards the Northern
Plains on Monday. The GFS and ECMWF differ slightly on the timing of
this feature, with the ECMWF being more progressive. The ECMWF
brings a surface trough into our area as early as Monday afternoon,
while the GFS keeps the best forcing well off to our west. Will
introduce low chances for rain across our western areas Monday
afternoon.
Temperatures are looking to remain very mild, with highs around 10
degrees above normal. While nights may be cooler under the influence
of high pressure, there is no clear signal for below freezing
temperatures on any night through the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016
An area of low pressure was over eastern North Dakota late this
afternoon. A warm front extended south from the low into central
Iowa and a cold front dropped southwest from the low into
Nebraska. Surface observations indicate there is a narrow band of
IFR conditions just ahead of the front where the ceilings drop
down and the visibility is reduced by some fog and drizzle. Will
show this as a possibility through 02Z at KRST with lower
confidence through 03Z at KLSE. Expecting MVFR ceilings to move
back into KLSE early this evening as the warm front pushes east as
well. Shortly after the warm front passes through, the MVFR
ceilings should dissipate with VFR conditions then expected for
the remainder of the period. The south winds will not change much
with the passage of the warm front but then go around to the
west/southwest once the cold front comes through late tonight
through Tuesday morning.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT/MH
AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
940 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016
Rain continues to track across north central into northeast ND
this evening, ahead of a shortwave moving across northwest ND.
Back behind the shortwave. Scattered showers from eastern MT into
west central ND, with much less coverage. These showers are also
dissipating as they move into drier air over southwest ND.
Updated pops again based on latest radars. Considerable cloudiness
upstream of western ND but there appears to be some breaks.
Current temperatures in southern saskatchewan are in the mid 30s.
Think our mid 30s across the west look reasonable for lows tonight
with upper 30s to lower 40s over the south central into the James
River Valley.
UPDATE Issued at 711 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016
Have cancelled wind highlights across the southwest and south
central. There is a secondary pressure bubble and increase in
winds aloft across the southwest and south central this evening.
However with the loss of heating, do not expect the stronger winds
to work down to the surface with a lack of sustained cold
advection. Also adjusted pops based on latest radar.
UPDATE Issued at 526 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016
Updated forecast to add some fog over the north central portion of
the state. Visibilities here in the 1 to 3 mile range, but should
improve by around mid evening as the surface low moves east and
winds become northwest and increase. Also adjusted pops based on
latest radar analysis.
Farther south, there are some winds gusting around 40 to 45 mph in
the southwest and far south central where skies have cleared late
this afternoon. Looks like surface low took a little more of a
southerly track compared go guidance last night. Thus we never
realized our gust potential. Will take a look at 6 pm Obs and
unless we see something way out of line, will likely cancel by 7
pm. This should allow gusty winds far south to settle a bit. There
is a secondary pressure bubble tracking across the area later
tonight and may keep winds breezy to even windy a times but expect
them to remain below advisory criteria. Remaining updated products
will be sent shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016
Very strong winds late this afternoon and evening south central
and southeast highlight the short term forecast.
No changes were made at this time to the ongoing High Wind Warning
and Wind Advisory across southwest and south central North Dakota.
The strongest winds through 19 UTC have been in the cloud free
area across the far southwest and south central where insolation
has allowed for greater mixing and momentum transfer. Visible
satellite trends through 1930 UTC suggest continued slow erosion of
the stratus deck between I-94 and ND Highway 200, to allow for
much stronger winds to impact these areas through the evening. The
12 UTC NAM/GFS and the 16-18 UTC RAP BUFR soundings suggest
50-60kts at the top of the mixed layer across the southwest, and
45-50 kts across the south central and James River Valley.
Momentum transfer aided by cold air advection behind the surface
low departing into northwest Minnesota and modest isallobaric
forcing supports the current spatial and temporal placement of
wind headlines at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016
Above normal temperatures highlight the extended forecast.
The 00 UTC global suites are in agreement on an upper level ridge
building into the Northern Plains late Wednesday, and remaining in
place through the extended forecast period. This supports a
continued stretch of above normal temperatures to begin November
with widespread highs in the upper 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 934 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016
MVFR-IFR ceilings and vsbys in rain and fog from KISN to KMOT
tonight improving west to east Tuesday morning. VFR to occasional
MVFR ceilings KDIK-KBIS-KJMS tonight also improving Tuesday
morning. Breezy west to northwest winds this evening, diminishing
late tonight into Tuesday morning. Then breezy west to southwest
winds Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
913 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016
.UPDATE...
Tonight-Tuesday...A frontal boundary that moved off the mid Atlantic
coast and caused the pressure gradient to ease locally will have
stronger high pressure building in behind it. This will result in
gradually increasing low level east/northeast flow overnight. The
main problem to look at will be whether we could get a repeat of
dense fog during the early morning hours in northern sections.
MOS guidance does not hit fog much at KLEE, but it didn`t yesterday
either. The NAM showed some low visibility glancing Lake county but
the HRRR and local WRF models haven`t been showing any. Surface
winds will be light in the pre-dawn hours but slightly more boundary
layer flow is forecast, while being more veered to the east.
Therefore, having patchy fog in the forecast north/west of I-4 looks
okay right now.
Tuesday looks a little more breezy with slightly increased
stratocumulus, but still at least partly sunny. No changes planned
to the current forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR. Boundary layer winds will begin to increase overnight
which should prevent another round of widespread dense fog northwest
of I-4 overnight, but patchy fog producing tempo IFR/MVFR conditions
will still be possible, especially at KLEE.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight-Tuesday...Conditions look a little less favorable for small
craft operation. Reinforcing ridge north of the area will increase
northeast to east winds back to 15-20 knots, especially south of the
Volusia/Brevard County line late tonight/Tuesday. Winds over the
Volusia waters should remain 10-15 knots. Seas 3-5 feet will have a
little more noticeable wind chop on Tue, especially from Cape
Canaveral southward.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...Lascody
IMPACT WX...Sedlock
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
351 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
At 345 AM, skies ranged from clear from the Brainerd Lakes into
far northwest Wisconsin and to Duluth and the North Shore of Lake
Superior, due to a dry slot pushing across the CWA. Some clouds
were found in the southeast portion of our CWA, as well as across
much of north central and interior portions of NE Minnesota.
Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s in the north to the mid 50s
in the south. The highest temperature as of 3 am was at Saxon
Harbor with 58 degrees. Not bad for nearly 4 am in early
November! Winds were gusty from the southwest.
The focus for today will be cloud trends, as well as winds. A
secondary cold front was dropping across northern Minnesota early
this morning. The front will continue to drop southward but
overall it should wash out during the day as the main surface low
moves off to the east. The main question for today will be the
extent of low clouds across the Northland. There are some differences
in the way the models are handling the low level moisture today,
which can be fairly typical of November. The HRRR and RAP generally
would favor a blanketing of much of northeast Minnesota with low
clouds as the day wears on, with lots of sunshine in northwest
Wisconsin and perhaps along the North Shore. Some of the other
models favor decreasing clouds across northeast Minnesota as the
day wears on. Will take a mixed approach in bringing a bit more
sunshine from the Brainerd Lakes into Duluth, and favoring more
clouds along and north of the Highway 2 corridor. Temperatures
today should range from the upper 40s in the north to around 60 in
the Phillips and Park Falls area.
The same situation appears tonight, but will be a bit more
optimistic in terms of bringing some partial clearing tonight.
Think there will be areas of clouds but some clear areas as well.
We should see a mix of sun and clouds on Wednesday as another
cold front drops across the Lake Superior region. Highs on
Wednesday will generally be in the 50s. Temps in the mid 50s would
be some 10 degrees warmer than normal.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
Mild and dry mid week and through the weekend, with an increasing
chance for rain showers Sunday night into Monday. An overall high-
confidence forecast that the mild fall conditions will continue
through the first 7-10 days of November.
Mid to late week a strong mid-level ridge builds across the Great
Basin east towards the upper Midwest resulting in a dry and mild
airmass moving in. Late week a mid-level shortwave trough moves east
across central Saskatachewan/Manitoba with a resulting weak warm
front sliding across parts of southern Manitoba into northern
Minnesota, possibly leading to some clouds Friday. The large-scale
ridge rapidly re-establishes itself through the weekend with a solid
+10C at 850mb - near-record values per INL sounding climatology.
Highs Thursday through Sunday in the 50s to low 60s, with some
guidance suggesting mid 60s on Sunday - near record values. Lows in
the upper 30s to low 40s.
This stretch of sunny and mild conditions is broken Sunday as clouds
increase associated with a warm front building north up the
Mississippi river valley associated with a mid-level vort max being
advected north on the back side of the mid-level ridge axis. A
chance for showers Sunday night into Monday, but with deep-layer
moisture hard to come by showers will likely be isolated to
scattered in coverage and precip amounts light. Mild Sunday night
given the cloud cover with lows in the mid 40s - possibly reaching a
record warm minimum temperature on Monday. Highs Monday again in the
50s to near 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
Mainly MVFR/IFR ceilings with areas of drizzle and fog are expected
until early morning, then a gradual improvement to VFR is
expected as the pair of vorticity maxima move past the terminals.
Some gusty winds are also expected until around sunrise. Some LLWS
is possible until 12Z at HYR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 39 55 37 / 0 0 0 0
INL 47 38 50 32 / 20 0 0 0
BRD 53 39 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 58 37 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 57 39 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
LSZ146-147.
Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ146-147.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
142>145-148.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-141.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
348 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move northeast of the region today, allowing for
near-record warmth to enter the Ohio Valley for today and tomorrow.
A cold front will then move southeast through the area on Thursday,
bringing rain, and significantly cooler temperatures behind it. A
dry area of high pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley for
Friday and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Expansive (though not overly amplified) ridging is currently in
place over the eastern half of the US. Heights will continue to
rise today over the Ohio Valley, with strengthening southwesterly
flow providing a significant boost of warm advection to the area.
With a relatively dry air mass in the low levels, and reasonable
mixing expected, record highs appear possible for all three
climate reporting locations. Please see the climate section of the
AFD (near the bottom) for additional information on the records.
The warmest 850mb/925mb air is expected to be over the region
this afternoon and evening, which will make the 00Z KILN sounding
tonight rather interesting. If NAM/GFS forecasts of around 15C
(850mb) and 19C (925mb) verify, they would be among the warmest
temperatures aloft ever sampled by KDAY/KILN during the month of
November. The max temp forecast for today (upper 70s to lower 80s)
is near the top of the surprisingly-well-clustered SREF plume, and
not all that far from MAV/MET guidance. There is probably actually
some room for this forecast to even increase by a degree or two,
but there are concerns with the copious high-level cloud cover
that will likely cover the region for much of the day. A few
models are also generating some light showers in the
southern/southeastern CWA on the nose of the warm advection (and
in an area of weak low-level convergence near the Ohio River).
This is not impossible, but seems somewhat unlikely to become
widespread, given the lack of moisture in the 925mb-700mb layer.
In particular, the HRRR appears to be too high with its RH
forecast in the first couple kilometers off the surface. A few
light echoes have begun to show up on radar, but with cloud decks
in the 5000-8000 foot range, virga/sprinkles are probably more
likely than any measurable precipitation (at least through the
next few hours).
Made some slight increases in wind speeds today, particularly with
regards to gusts in the northwestern quadrant of the forecast
area. Some 25-30 MPH gusts appear possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm conditions (upper 50s) are expected tonight and into
Wednesday morning, though it appears that record high minimum
temperatures for November 2 (which are in the lower 60s) will
likely remain unchallenged.
On Wednesday morning, two areas of high pressure will exist on
either side of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. One, off the mid-
Atlantic coast, will gradually adjust southward. The other, over
the northern Great Lakes, will shunt ENE into Ontario and Quebec.
Between the two, a frontal zone is forecast to develop along an
axis of low pressure, which will extend from Topeka to Buffalo by
18Z Wednesday. Initially sort of left behind by one shortwave
moving through Canada on Tuesday night, a large wave developing
over the central US will help provide forcing to activate a solid
area of precipitation upstream of the ILN CWA late Wednesday into
Thursday morning. As the wave deepens on Thursday, the front will
begin making swift progress to the southeast. The chances for rain
along this front will be the focus for the short term of the
forecast.
Before the front arrives, one more warm day is expected for
Wednesday. 925mb/850mb temperatures will be coming down slightly,
but otherwise, there appear to be no major impedances to reaching
similar values to highs on Tuesday -- especially in the continued
20-30 knot 925mb-850mb southwesterly flow.
Though models have oscillated slightly on the timing of the front
-- settling on a consensus just a few hours slower than in the
previous forecast -- this ultimately remains a high-confidence
forecast in rainfall, necessitating categorical PoPs across the
entire ILN CWA. The greatest chances will move from northwest to
southeast between 09Z and 18Z. Model soundings are very limited
with any instability, and mid-level lapse rates are unlikely to
support updrafts with any degree of intensity. Thus, thunder has
not been included in the forecast. There will also likely be a
non-diurnal component to temperature trends on Thursday, which
will eventually have to be incorporated into the grids once the
timing is better locked down.
A quick drying is expected behind the front, leading to an end to
precipitation by mid-afternoon (NW CWA) to early evening (SE CWA).
A rapid and somewhat potent switch to cold advection on northerly
flow is expected, and the min temp forecast for Thursday night had
to be reduced significantly -- with mid to upper 30s north of
Interstate 70.
Very little to speak of with regards to the weather on Friday, as
a dry area of high pressure will begin a multi-day trek across the
region. Though tranquil, the change in temperatures will be
notable -- highs in the mid to upper 50s are actually slightly
below normal for early November.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High amplitude mid and upper level riding will then build into
the central United States and shift slowly eastward late this week
and into early next week. The 12Z ECMWF is somewhat faster than
the 12Z GFS in shifting the ridge eastward over the weekend and as
a result somewhat warmer. Either way, it looks like we will remain
dry through the rest of the long term period. As for temperatures,
will tweak them up a bit to trend a little closer to the ECMWF
with highs mainly in the 60s through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As a mid level ridge builds northward into the Ohio Valley today,
a warm front will move northeast across the terminals this morning
into early afternoon. Some scattered cumulus/stratocumulus can be
expected over southern/eastern sites through mid morning.
Otherwise, models indicate that considerable high level clouds
will continue through the TAF period. Winds will pick up from the
south/southwest between 16Z and 18Z with gusts up to 20 knots
possible. Winds will subside after 22Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions with showers possible on Thursday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
High temperatures for today and Wednesday are expected to be about
15 to 20 degrees above normal. Current forecast temperatures are
close to records for the next two days.
Tuesday (November 1)
Site Forecast High Record High (year)
KCVG 81 80 (1982)
KCMH 79 80 (1950)
KDAY 79 79 (1950)
Wednesday (November 2)
Site Forecast High Record High (year)
KCVG 80 81 (1987)
KCMH 79 79 (1987)
KDAY 77 77 (1933/1961/1987)
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Hickman
CLIMATE...Haines/Hatzos
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
402 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
A fairly robust swath of high level moisture is moving northeast
across the Srn Rockies. The RAP model analyzes this moisture at
the 200-400mb level and shows it lifting north into Wrn and Ncntl
Neb today suggesting skies will become increasingly cloudy. This
seems reasonable given the satellite water vapor trends.
The temperature forecast uses a blend of the guidance plus bias
correction for highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. This is on the
warm side of an the envelope of 18 models and guidance data sets.
Warm air advection is neutral with h850mb temperatures in the
lower teens to around 10C.
The models suggest an area of weak midlevel frontogenesis will
develop tonight across Northwest Neb. This could support very
light showers...perhaps only sprinkles given the dry air below
700mb. Isolated showers are in place across Garden and Sheridan
Counties late tonight. The blend of guidance plus bias correction
suggests lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Mid and high level
cloud cover is expected to hold up any radiational cooling.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
No end in site for the mild conditions which carried over from
October. Ridge across the western CONUS with the exception to a
closed low across southern Arizona mid week. The low will be the
main focus as it eventually lifts to the northeast. Models still
struggling with the timing and track of the low, which is not
surprising as they typically struggle with a system like this. One
thing models agree on is the cold air remains well to the north so
even on the back side of the low temperatures remain above climo.
Wednesday morning some lingering low pops from weak disturbance
which is exiting northwest Neb. Could end up being sprinkles or
dry as a dry lower level to overcome. Timing is more favorable as
the temp/dew pt spread is less in the morning.
High confidence in dry conditions for the rest of the work week.
Highs well into the 60s and lower 70s with lows in the mid 30s to
mid 40s.
The weekend into next week is a low confidence forecast. If the
low tracks further north, as the latest EC suggests cooler and a
better chance for precip. While the slower and further south
solution of the GFS would keep the dry conditions for most of the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016
Over the next 24 hours expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
across western and north central Nebraska. Some high level clouds
will drift across southern Nebraska overnight tonight into
Tuesday. Clear skies will persist across northern Nebraska
overnight with some mid to high clouds developing Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening. Winds will be light over the next
24 hours at 5 to 10 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...Buttler
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
340 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Another morning of clear skies and light winds possibly setting the
stage for radiational cooling and thus prospects for patchy fog
towards daybreak. Temp-dewpt spreads of 3 degrees or less noted
across portions of Deep East TX and central LA are the likely areas
for fog development, which is being hinted at by the NAM and HRRR
solutions. By mid-morning, any lingering fog will have scoured out.
The UA ridge that has been dominate across the Four-State region the
last few days is what has been responsible for the abnormally
warm/near record breaking temps. The center of the said ridge will
be shifting east towards the southeastern CONUS today courtesy of a
Pacific UA disturbance moving across southern OR/northern CA, hence
promoting southwest flow aloft. So although the ridge will not be
directly overhead, its influence will still be felt with 850 mb
temps of 15- 17 degrees C yielding the possibility for near record
breaking warmth once again today. Concurrently, a weak UA
disturbance across south central TX early this morning is progged
to lift northeast along the western periphery of the ridge,
nearing the area this aftn and wane whilst moving across the
western zones this evening/tonight. An upslope sfc regime will
allow for PWATS to increase into the 1.40- 1.70 inch range by this
aftn. Increased low level moisture and a weak disturbance may
encourage a few isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or
two, particularly across east TX.
As the Pacific disturbance digs south southeast to across the Desert
southwest tomorrow, southwest flow aloft will sharpen. Persistent
southeasterly sfc flow will lead to PWATS of 1.20-1.50 inches
spreading to the remainder of the CWA through Thursday /with highest
PWATS anticipated across east TX and northwest LA/. A slight uptick
in large scale ascent from the eventual cutoff low downstream from
the region, coupled with a moistening atmosphere may result in
showers and thunderstorms increasing in spatial extent. The Weather
Prediction center is insistent upon rather light QPF amounts, much
less than what was shown 24 hours ago /5-day total of a tenth of an
inch or so valid through early weekend/. Although rain amounts
are not overly impressive, Fall-like temperatures will make a
return as temps will drop into the lower 80s by Thursday and into
the 70s by weeks end, courtesy of a cold frontal passage on
Thursday. Thereafter, a much drier airmass ushered in by the cold
front and the UA ridge making a return for the weekend will lead to
dry conditions, but a nearby sfc ridge will maintain seasonably/slightly
above seasonal temps. The cutoff low is poised to open up whilst
ejecting northeast to across the Central Plains late weekend/early
next week giving way to little to no chance for rainfall. However,
another /deeper/ UA trough right on its heels moving across the
Central and Southern Plains could serve as a better rain-maker for
Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.
For your perusal:
Shreveport:
Today Record High - 88 set in 1984
Today Forecast High -87
Tyler:
Today Record High - 86 set in 1963
Today Forecast High - 84
Monroe:
Today Record High - 88 set in 1935
Today Forecast High - 88
Lufkin:
Today Record High - 90 set in 2010
Today Forecast High - 87
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 65 83 66 / 10 10 20 20
MLU 88 62 86 62 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 84 63 80 61 / 0 10 20 20
TXK 85 64 81 64 / 10 10 20 20
ELD 85 60 83 61 / 0 10 10 10
TYR 84 67 83 66 / 20 10 20 30
GGG 86 65 84 64 / 10 10 20 20
LFK 87 66 85 66 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
29
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
640 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
At 345 AM, skies ranged from clear from the Brainerd Lakes into
far northwest Wisconsin and to Duluth and the North Shore of Lake
Superior, due to a dry slot pushing across the CWA. Some clouds
were found in the southeast portion of our CWA, as well as across
much of north central and interior portions of NE Minnesota.
Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s in the north to the mid 50s
in the south. The highest temperature as of 3 am was at Saxon
Harbor with 58 degrees. Not bad for nearly 4 am in early
November! Winds were gusty from the southwest.
The focus for today will be cloud trends, as well as winds. A
secondary cold front was dropping across northern Minnesota early
this morning. The front will continue to drop southward but
overall it should wash out during the day as the main surface low
moves off to the east. The main question for today will be the
extent of low clouds across the Northland. There are some differences
in the way the models are handling the low level moisture today,
which can be fairly typical of November. The HRRR and RAP generally
would favor a blanketing of much of northeast Minnesota with low
clouds as the day wears on, with lots of sunshine in northwest
Wisconsin and perhaps along the North Shore. Some of the other
models favor decreasing clouds across northeast Minnesota as the
day wears on. Will take a mixed approach in bringing a bit more
sunshine from the Brainerd Lakes into Duluth, and favoring more
clouds along and north of the Highway 2 corridor. Temperatures
today should range from the upper 40s in the north to around 60 in
the Phillips and Park Falls area.
The same situation appears tonight, but will be a bit more
optimistic in terms of bringing some partial clearing tonight.
Think there will be areas of clouds but some clear areas as well.
We should see a mix of sun and clouds on Wednesday as another
cold front drops across the Lake Superior region. Highs on
Wednesday will generally be in the 50s. Temps in the mid 50s would
be some 10 degrees warmer than normal.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
Mild and dry mid week and through the weekend, with an increasing
chance for rain showers Sunday night into Monday. An overall high-
confidence forecast that the mild fall conditions will continue
through the first 7-10 days of November.
Mid to late week a strong mid-level ridge builds across the Great
Basin east towards the upper Midwest resulting in a dry and mild
airmass moving in. Late week a mid-level shortwave trough moves east
across central Saskatachewan/Manitoba with a resulting weak warm
front sliding across parts of southern Manitoba into northern
Minnesota, possibly leading to some clouds Friday. The large-scale
ridge rapidly re-establishes itself through the weekend with a solid
+10C at 850mb - near-record values per INL sounding climatology.
Highs Thursday through Sunday in the 50s to low 60s, with some
guidance suggesting mid 60s on Sunday - near record values. Lows in
the upper 30s to low 40s.
This stretch of sunny and mild conditions is broken Sunday as clouds
increase associated with a warm front building north up the
Mississippi river valley associated with a mid-level vort max being
advected north on the back side of the mid-level ridge axis. A
chance for showers Sunday night into Monday, but with deep-layer
moisture hard to come by showers will likely be isolated to
scattered in coverage and precip amounts light. Mild Sunday night
given the cloud cover with lows in the mid 40s - possibly reaching a
record warm minimum temperature on Monday. Highs Monday again in the
50s to near 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
MVFR ceilings will quickly improve to VFR this afternoon as the
stratus associated with a low pressure over northwest Ontario
exits the region. Breezy west winds this morning will subside by
the afternoon with VFR conditions expected to prevail at all sites
overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 39 55 37 / 0 0 0 0
INL 47 38 50 32 / 20 0 0 0
BRD 53 39 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 58 37 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 57 39 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ146-147.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
142>145-148.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-141.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
922 AM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest over the region this morning before
sliding offshore. A warm front will lift into the region from the
southwest tonight and be quickly followed by a cold front on
Wednesday. The cold front will then stall over southern New
England Wednesday night. A wave of low pressure will form on the
front Wednesday night then move east through the region Thursday.
The low will move northeast into the maritimes Thursday night as
high pressure builds in from the west. A trough of Low pressure
will drop south through the region Friday night and Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Have adjusted grids into the early afternoon as a result
of low clouds across Srn NH. Return flow aloft has allowed this
area to blossom since around 09z. Most guidance has a poor handle
on this not surprisingly. Recent runs of the HRRR are doing a
fair job depicting the area of clouds...but poor job with the
orientation more E to W. with some manual adjusting I think I have
something representative into the afternoon. Gradually daytime
heating will allow this layer to lift and scatter out some...but
it should last several more hours.
Prev disc...
At 06z...a 1029 millibar high was centered over southwest New
Hampshire. Outside of some low cloud trapped under the subsidence
inversion...GOES infrared imagery showed mostly clear skies across
the forecast area at moment. GOES water vapor imagery showed a
shortwave impulse vicinity of Lake superior. For today...the
surface high will crest across the forecast area this morning
before retreating offshore. This will provide a mostly sunny start
to the day with southerly return flow developing by afternoon.
Highs today will be mainly in the 40s...with some lower 50s across
the southern third of New Hampshire into adjacent southwest Maine.
The shortwave impulse will race eastward and introduce some late
day clouds across northern and mountain sections along with the
potential for a few showers near the international border.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front will slide north into the area tonight with clouds
along with the chance of a few showers for northern and mountain
sections. Lows tonight should be in the lower and mid 40s. On
Wednesday...the trailing cold front will cross the area with
a few clouds and widely scattered showers. The westerly flow and
mild 850 millibar temperatures should yield high temperatures in
the lower 60s across the southern third of New Hampshire into
adjacent southwest Maine...with 50s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A short wave trough and associated SFC low pressure center will
approach from the west Wednesday night and cross New England on
Thursday. Consensus is that the short wave will amplify as it
crosses the region allowing for pretty good dynamics and moisture
advection. The result will be a relatively fast-moving area of
rainfall, with the heaviest expected north of the SFC low
track. Around an inch of rain will be possible across central and
some northern zones. Further south...across southernmost NH...precip
amounts will be quite a bit lighter as better forcing for ascent
will be north. In a nutshell, much of Thursday looks like a chilly
rainy day for most locations.
The low moves out to the east Thursday night ending the steady
rainfall. The rain may change to a period of snow in the mountains
Thursday evening, with upslope snow showers continuing thereafter.
Fair but chilly and breezy on Friday as high pressure gradually
builds in. Fair weather is then expected this weekend into early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wednesday/...VFR. Lcl MVFR psb tonight in
mainly mtn -shra.
Long Term...IFR conditions are expected to develop late Wednesday
night or Thursday morning and continue through the day Thursday in
rain. Improvement is foreseen Thursday night and Friday as high
pressure begins to move into the region from the west.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...Winds and seas will remain below
SCA thresholds with high pressure in control of the waters today.
A weak cold front will cross the area on Wednesday.
Long Term...Small craft conditions are expected Thursday night and
Friday in the wake of departing low pressure.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Legro
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
612 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
A fairly robust swath of high level moisture is moving northeast
across the Srn Rockies. The RAP model analyzes this moisture at
the 200-400mb level and shows it lifting north into Wrn and Ncntl
Neb today suggesting skies will become increasingly cloudy. This
seems reasonable given the satellite water vapor trends.
The temperature forecast uses a blend of the guidance plus bias
correction for highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. This is on the
warm side of an the envelope of 18 models and guidance data sets.
Warm air advection is neutral with h850mb temperatures in the
lower teens to around 10C.
The models suggest an area of weak midlevel frontogenesis will
develop tonight across Northwest Neb. This could support very
light showers...perhaps only sprinkles given the dry air below
700mb. Isolated showers are in place across Garden and Sheridan
Counties late tonight. The blend of guidance plus bias correction
suggests lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Mid and high level
cloud cover is expected to hold up any radiational cooling.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
No end in site for the mild conditions which carried over from
October. Ridge across the western CONUS with the exception to a
closed low across southern Arizona mid week. The low will be the
main focus as it eventually lifts to the northeast. Models still
struggling with the timing and track of the low, which is not
surprising as they typically struggle with a system like this. One
thing models agree on is the cold air remains well to the north so
even on the back side of the low temperatures remain above climo.
Wednesday morning some lingering low pops from weak disturbance
which is exiting northwest Neb. Could end up being sprinkles or
dry as a dry lower level to overcome. Timing is more favorable as
the temp/dew pt spread is less in the morning.
High confidence in dry conditions for the rest of the work week.
Highs well into the 60s and lower 70s with lows in the mid 30s to
mid 40s.
The weekend into next week is a low confidence forecast. If the
low tracks further north, as the latest EC suggests cooler and a
better chance for precip. While the slower and further south
solution of the GFS would keep the dry conditions for most of the
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
VFR is expected all areas today and tonight.
A weak midlevel disturbance is expected to move northeast from
Ncntl Colo to Northwest Neb by late tonight. Sprinkles or
isolated showers are expected with disturbance...roughly from KCYS
to KMER. Low level moisture is expected to remain sesquestered
across KS and the models maintain high ceilings and VFR across
Wrn/Ncntl Neb through Wednesday Morning.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
857 AM PDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Partly cloudy with some isolated showers through
midday. Dry weather conditions return tonight and will continue
through the remainder of the work week as high pressure builds
aloft. Chances for precipitation return Saturday night into
Sunday, mainly across the north bay, as another weather system
pushes inland.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 8:57 AM PDT Tuesday...Forecast is in good
shape this morning. Some lingering isolated showers early this
morning continue to dissipate with skies mostly clear north and
partly cloudy south bay and central coast. Current forecast keeps
some isolated showers in the central coast hills this afternoon
and that looks good. Otherwise ridge builds with a nice start to
November with afternoon highs from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Overnight lows from the mid 40s to lower 50s this week which is
seasonable and will keep us out of any early season overnight cold
snaps.
Next forecast item of note will be to watch for some north bay
rain chances later Saturday night into Sunday morning. Will see
what the 12z suite of models show in regards to that, otherwise
the weather looks nice at least through Saturday. Even if the
system this weekend brings some light rain to the north the
pattern beyond that looks dry through the middle of next week.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 04:09 AM PDT Tuesday...A weakening frontal
boundary remains draped across the region early this morning with
scattered showers ongoing from the Santa Cruz area northeastward
into the East Bay. Expecting these showers to persist for the next
several hours before diminishing in coverage later this morning.
Cannot rule out a few lingering showers across the Central Coast
and up into the East Bay Hills/Mountains through this afternoon,
yet most locations will see drying conditions today.
A slight warming trend is then expected to begin on Wednesday and
persist through late week as a weak short-wave ridge develops over
the region. This will also allow for clearing skies and dry
weather conditions as the main storm track remains to our north.
Temperatures are forecast to rebound back to near seasonal
averages with low/mid 60s at the coast to 70s inland through late
week. Given the recent rainfall and forecast clearing skies,
cannot rule out patchy fog the next few mornings, mainly over the
North Bay and East Bay valley locations.
The region`s next chance for precipitation remains on track for
Saturday night into Sunday as an upper level trough approaches and
then pushes inland over the Pacific Northwest. The forecast models
differ slightly on the strength and timing of this system, yet the
best chances for measurable rainfall will be across the northern
half of the region. The approaching trough will also help to cool
temperatures slightly for the upcoming weekend. In wake of this
system passing inland to our north, ridging will develop and
likely result in dry weather conditions for the first part of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 5:02 AM PDT Tuesday...A line of instability
showers extending from the East Bay area southwest across the
Monterey Bay is moving eastward. Additional widely scattered
showers are seen over the San Francisco Peninsula. Instability
showers over the coastal waters will continue to thrive upon an
area of mainly weak instability (150-300 j/kg CAPE due to
relatively mild sea temps under a colder atmosphere) over the next
couple hours per the latest HRRR model run. 12z tafs indicate
MVFR/VFR today along with a little bit of light rain in the
southern tafs, a patch or two of fog is also possible this morning
where the winds are light. Clear skies tonight may result in a few
patches of fog in the valleys late at night where light drainage
winds develop.
Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Mainly light winds.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...E-SE winds at 5-10 knots this morning becoming
light onshore by afternoon. VFR with light possibly briefly moderate
rain this morning. Clearing later this morning. Wind becoming light
from the E-SE once again this evening.
&&
.MARINE...as of 08:42 AM PDT Tuesday...Building high pressure will
resulting in mostly northerly flow over the coastal waters today.
winds will be strongest south of monterey bay. northwest swells
will build later this week thanks to a storm system in the
northern pacific.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...None.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: MM
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
653 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, low IFR/MVFR cigs and vsby spreading northward
now with obscured sky at LFK, but hanging on to SKC elsewhere.
The sfc winds are calm/light South. Aloft, the S/SW flow is deep
with 15-30KTS on climb out and into FL. VFR could start to return
by mid to late morning, but may linger into the p.m. under an
inversion to 4-5kft. Expect a repeat Wed perhaps, but w/ increasing
cirrus fog would be less and even stratus in some areas. Outlook
is for fropa Thurs with a few TSTMS followed by a return to fall.
/24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 613 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016/
UPDATE...
Patchy fog has developed across portions of central and north
central LA this morning, with visibility becoming restricted to
less than 6 miles at times. Have therefore updated the weather
package to reflect this trend. Conditions are expected to improve
by mid-morning.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Another morning of clear skies and light winds possibly setting the
stage for radiational cooling and thus prospects for patchy fog
towards daybreak. Temp-dewpt spreads of 3 degrees or less noted
across portions of Deep East TX and central LA are the likely areas
for fog development, which is being hinted at by the NAM and HRRR
solutions. By mid-morning, any lingering fog will have scoured out.
The UA ridge that has been dominate across the Four-State region the
last few days is what has been responsible for the abnormally
warm/near record breaking temps. The center of the said ridge will
be shifting east towards the southeastern CONUS today courtesy of a
Pacific UA disturbance moving across southern OR/northern CA, hence
promoting southwest flow aloft. So although the ridge will not be
directly overhead, its influence will still be felt with 850 mb
temps of 15-17 degrees C yielding the possibility for near record
breaking warmth once again today. Concurrently, a weak UA
disturbance across south central TX early this morning is progged
to lift northeast along the western periphery of the ridge,
nearing the area this aftn and wane whilst moving across the
western zones this evening/tonight. An upslope sfc regime will
allow for PWATS to increase into the 1.40-1.70 inch range by this
aftn. Increased low level moisture and a weak disturbance may
encourage a few isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or
two, particularly across east TX.
As the Pacific disturbance digs south southeast to across the Desert
southwest tomorrow, southwest flow aloft will sharpen. Persistent
southeasterly sfc flow will lead to PWATS of 1.20-1.50 inches
spreading to the remainder of the CWA through Thursday /with highest
PWATS anticipated across east TX and northwest LA/. A slight uptick
in large scale ascent from the eventual cutoff low downstream from
the region, coupled with a moistening atmosphere may result in
showers and thunderstorms increasing in spatial extent. The Weather
Prediction center is insistent upon rather light QPF amounts, much
less than what was shown 24 hours ago /5-day total of a tenth of an
inch or so valid through early weekend/. Although rain amounts
are not overly impressive, Fall-like temperatures will make a
return as temps will drop into the lower 80s by Thursday and into
the 70s by weeks end, courtesy of a cold frontal passage on
Thursday. Thereafter, a much drier airmass ushered in by the cold
front and the UA ridge making a return for the weekend will lead to
dry conditions, but a nearby sfc ridge will maintain seasonably/slightly
above seasonal temps. The cutoff low is poised to open up whilst
ejecting northeast to across the Central Plains late weekend/early
next week giving way to little to no chance for rainfall. However,
another /deeper/ UA trough right on its heels moving across the
Central and Southern Plains could serve as a better rain-maker for
Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.
For your perusal:
Shreveport:
Today Record High - 88 set in 1984
Today Forecast High - 87
Tyler:
Today Record High - 86 set in 1963
Today Forecast High - 84
Monroe:
Today Record High - 88 set in 1935
Today Forecast High - 88
Lufkin:
Today Record High - 90 set in 2010
Today Forecast High - 87
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 65 83 66 / 10 10 20 20
MLU 88 62 86 62 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 84 63 80 61 / 0 10 20 20
TXK 85 64 81 64 / 10 10 20 20
ELD 85 60 83 61 / 0 10 10 10
TYR 84 67 83 66 / 20 10 20 30
GGG 86 65 84 64 / 10 10 20 20
LFK 87 66 85 66 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
24/29
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1051 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016
...UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...
HRRR output suggests low clouds across southeast OK will
continue to thin/mix out into the early afternoon. Going
forecast is in reasonable shape and will let it ride at
this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 83 69 80 57 / 10 10 20 60
FSM 84 67 79 63 / 10 10 20 50
MLC 82 68 77 62 / 10 10 20 60
BVO 83 66 77 55 / 10 10 20 60
FYV 79 63 76 60 / 10 10 20 50
BYV 81 65 77 59 / 10 10 20 50
MKO 81 67 77 60 / 10 10 20 60
MIO 83 67 79 57 / 10 10 20 60
F10 81 67 78 59 / 10 10 20 60
HHW 82 67 79 64 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....06
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
322 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016
The upper level trough over eastern Nevada this afternoon will
split as it makes its eastward into western Colorado on Wednesday.
The northern branch splits across Wyoming on Wednesday...while the
southern branch closes off as it drops into Arizona. Ahead of the
trough will be a moderate to strong southwesterly flow over the
cwa tonight...with some weak mid level qg ascent aloft. Enough mid
level moisture and lift to produce a chance of some light
rain/snow showers in the mountains. The last few runs of the HRRR
show some light showers along the Urban Corridor from Denver north
to the Cheyenne Ridge mainly this evening. Not much of a mid level
cloud deck at this time...but it is progged to thicken a bit
overnight. Wl add isold pops mainly near the foothills and along
our northern border. Strong southerly winds this aftn will become
north/northeasterly on Wednesday...as a surface high push south
across eastern Colorado. The southerly flow aloft will be weaker
on Wednesday...with just enough moisture fm the south to kick of
some isold to sct showers over zone 34. Otherwise dry...stable and
cooler across the cwa. North/northeast surface winds will persist
across the northeast plains through the day on Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016
A ridge of high pressure aloft will move overhead Wednesday night
to push the upper cutoff low further into AZ. Drier northeasterly
flow aloft will diminish any leftover mountain showers that
evening. With clearing skies, temperatures overnight will be the
coldest they`ve been in almost 2 weeks...yet still not down to
normal readings for this time of year.
Warm and dry weather will prevail Thursday under the ridge. The
cutoff low over AZ will then weaken and starting lifting northeast
towards the forecast area Friday for an increase in moisture. This
will bring a slight chance of showers to the mountains during the
day. The ECMWF is the fastest outlier with the speed of the low
lifting across the state, though its latest run has slowed it down
to be more in line. Have decreased the forecast chances for
precipitation across the area Friday night into
Saturday, especially across the plains, to show the trend of the
models. Snow levels should still remain high around 10 kft.
The upper low should finally lift northeast of the state Sunday
with clearing from the west. Clearing won`t last long however as
another upper trough will swing over the state Monday for another
chance of precipitation across the area. Models differ quite
radically on the depth and direction of the low, with the GFS
having another much colder reinforcing low pushing south on
Tuesday while the ECMWF has the upper ridge re- establishing
itself. For now, will show temperatures warming a few degrees
Tuesday as the Canadian seems to be in line with the EC.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Nov 1 2016
VFR conditions over the next 24 hrs. Boundary still lurking on the
northwest part of KDEN this aftn...and should shift to the south
and east later this aftn/evng. Mdls hint at some weak shower
activity later this evening...best chc of this will be at KBJC but
do not expect anything at KDEN and KAPA. Still expect gusty
southerly winds at KDEN to transition to a lighter westerly
component once the boundary pushes through. A surface low will
develop over southeastern CO by Wednesday morning...with
north/northeast winds expected to develop after 12z Wednesday as
high pressure pushes in fm the north. These winds should persist
throughout the day.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Cooper
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
635 PM EDT Tue Nov 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift east tonight as a weak cold front
approaches from the west. The cold front will gradually
sag south through the region on Wednesday...stalling over
southern New England by evening. Low Pressure will develop
on this boundary over the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night and
will move east into New England on Thursday. Low pressure will
continue east into the maritimes Thursday night. High pressure
will build in from the west Friday. A weak trough of low pressure
will drop south through the region on Saturday. High pressure will
slowly build in from the west Sunday through Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
630 pm...Broken line of showers associated with the front moving
into nrn zones attm. This should move through over the next few
hours and then as winds pick up, look for upslope shra and shsn in
a few spots later this evening. To the south, temps should fall
off briefly for a few hours after sunset, but should steady or
start to rise ahead of the front.
Previously...Surface ridge axis remains along the New England
coast this afternoon...and will generally hold there thru the
overnight. Meanwhile a building upper ridge over the SErn CONUS
will send low pressure across James Bay. Ahead of it a warm front
will lift thru the Northeast...bringing scattered showers. These
should mostly impact Nrn zones and the mtns...with it remaining
dry to the S. Given the dry antecedent air mass...some of those
showers may start as snow at the higher elevations but should
gradually change over too. Late tonight the trailing cold front
will move into the mtns...but struggle to push much farther than
that. Upslope clouds and showers will be possible N of the mtns.
Low temps are mostly likely early the evening...as high pressure
still in control and clear skies will allow for a quick drop in
readings. WAA flow will gradually warm things overnight...so a
non-diurnal temp trend is in place for that period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Interesting forecast in store for Wed. S of the cold front a
solidly warmer than normal air mass will advect in on SW flow.
Bufkit forecast soundings suggest mixing will remain shallow under
the influence of strong high pressure to the E...to around the 950
mb level. Mixing temps between 10 and 13 degrees C down to the
surface gives widespread readings in the 60s for much of the area.
The exception will be the far N...where N of the front low
clouds...little mixing...and upslope cooling will keep readings
in the low 50s. The fly in the ointment for warm wx will be cloud
cover. Current hi-res model guidance clears out much of the area
SE of the mtns Wed afternoon for at least part of the day. That
will go a long way to helping temps be fully realized. Latest HRRR
runs also show terrain induced high clouds that could hamper
daytime heating too. High temp forecast is a bit of a mix...with
warmer than guidance in the Srn zones...and cooler than guidance
in the N. The boundary remains stalled over the forecast area Wed
night...and low pressure is forecast to track along it. At this
time it looks like the bulk of the precip will wait until Thu
before reaching the CT River Valley. Increasing cloud cover will
keep temps more mild than recent nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will track east along the stalled frontal
boundary on Thursday...reaching central New England by
Thursday evening. After some early morning sun clouds will
quickly over-spread the region. Expect rain to push into northern
and western zones by early afternoon and will push into eastern
zones through early evening. Highs will range from the mid 40s to
lower 50s north and mid 50s to lower 60s south.
Low pressure will shift northeast into the maritimes Thursday
night. After a rainy evening expect precipitation to taper
off after midnight. Strong northwest flow will clear skies
downwind of the mountains toward daybreak Friday. Lows
overnight will dip into the mid 30s to lower 40s.
High pressure will build in from the west on Friday producing
a strong northwesterly gradient over the region. Will see
sharply cooler temps with highs only in the upper 30s to upper
40s.
High pressure will crest over the region Friday night before
sliding off to the southeast. Weak shortwave dropping
southeast from Canada will bring increasing clouds in northern
zones after midnight. Remainder of the forecast area will see
a mostly clear night. Lows will range from the mid 20s to mid
30s.
Weak shortwave will deepen the upper trough over the region on
Saturday. Shallow surface trough will drop south through the
region during the day bringing clouds but not much else aside
from a few flurries in the mountains. Highs will generally
range through the 40s to near 50.
Clouds will persist over the region Saturday night and Sunday
as upper trough continues to dig in over the northeast. May see
some snow or rain shower activity late Saturday night into
Sunday as trough axis crosses the region but any precip should
be light and spotty. Highs on Sunday will once again range
through the 40s.
Expect diminishing clouds Sunday night as upper trough drifts
off to the southeast and surface high pressure builds in from the
west. First half of next week looking fair with high pressure in
control over the area into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...High pressure remains in control of the area and
widespread VFR conditions are expected into the evening. After
midnight onshore flow may bring in areas of MVFR CIGs to RKD and
AUG areas ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will not
progress very far into the forecast area...but NW flow is expected
N of the mtns. Upslope clouds and MVFR conditions are likely at
HIE...with scattered SHRA. That lingers thru Wed...but the rest of
the forecast area should keep VFR CIGs into Wed night.
Long Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings Thursday...improving to VFR after
midnight. VFR friday and Friday night. Areas of MVFR ceilings
Saturday through Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds thru
Wed night.
Long Term...SCA`s to minimal gales possible Thursday night and
Friday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Legro
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...