Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/30/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
819 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Stratus deck continues to push westward across the high plains.
Currently its approaching Sterling and Akron and at this rate will
be backing toward the Front Range toward midnight. However, there
should be some slowing as the best surface pressure rises are
already moving off the the east and southeast. The cloud deck is
low with current ceilings between 500 and 1000 feet above ground
level. As a result, should first see fog develop on ridges but may
become more widespread by Sunday morning with low T/Td spreads in
the moist airmass. Overall, like the HRRR representation of fog
tonight which spreads into the Denver metro area on heals of a
developing weak Denver cyclone. Not exactly sure how far south fog
will make it but some chance it could at least get to downtown and
lower chance it reaches the southern suburbs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
We expect the gusty westerly winds near the foothills to drop off
by sunset...with winds becoming northerly...then northeasterly.
There is a large area of stratus in northern nebraska that is
starting to move our way according to satellite loops. New HRRR
shows high relative humidities moving into northeast Colorado a
lot earlier that previous forecast...and have spread a stratus
deck westward this evening and overnight. the proximity of the
surface high in Nebraska will keep northeast Colorado a bit
cooler both tonight and again on Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Powerful Polar jet stream arching well to our north around a
strong mid-level anticyclone/high pressure centered over New
Mexico at the present time will propagate eastward during the
first half of the upcoming week. All models show the core of this
100+ kt jet aligning sw-ne over nwrn Colorado by Monday. Within
this flow a weak mid-level shortwave trough will pass over Utah.
By Sunday night could see cross barrier winds in the 50-60kt
range as the shortwave trough nears the area. However the NAM
indicates a peak wind component of 75kts fm 09z-12z/Mon at the
crest of the Front Range. Will need to closely monitor the next
model run to determine the need for a high wind watch for upper
slopes of the Front Range Sunday night and Monday morning.
Otherwise winds not expected to be anywhere that strong at lower
elevations although foothill areas could see downslope winds
gusting in the 45-60 mph range during the same time period. On
Monday...should see winds relaxing as a band of showery precip
crosses the northern mtns with the passing shortwave. Model QPF
amts on the light side and snow levels should stay high--
generally above 9500-10000 ft agl. Lower elevations will stay
dry. Temps on Monday little changed from the day before with a
continuation of warming and drying with downslope flow. As the
shortwave trough passes...could see gusty nwly winds develop acrs
the northeast corner of the CWA Monday afternoon which will
elevate the wildland fire danger in this area.
For the remainder of the week...the region remains under a swift
southwest flow aloft as a deepening upper trough swings across the
Great Basin. The trough appears more amplified with the latest
model run. A shot of energy and moisture rounding the bottom of
this trough is progged to race newrd acrs nwrn Colorado late on
Tuesday bringing another chance of rain/snow to the nrn mtn
ranges Tuesday night. As the trough nears the state models show
further amplification of the trough and perhaps a better
opportunity for measurable precip notably acrs nrn and wrn
portions of the fcst area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Cooler
temps will lower the snow level possibly down to 8000-9000 ft
late Tuesday night/erly Wednesday morning. Areas of light snow
accum possible at higher elevations. Passing energy could also
generate spotty rain shower coverage on the plains on Wednesday.
By late in the day...all models show the 700-500 mb trough axis
passing east of the Front Range and gusty nwly drying winds
developing on the plains. Then a upper ridge moves overhead
Thursday warming and drying the local airmass in advance of what
some models show another weather disturbance lifting out of
Arizona. Not sure how much of an impact this feature will have on
the CWA. For now will just trend towards more cloud cover on
Friday mainly over swly portions of the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 818 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Main challenge tonight is fog. At this time, stratus is rolling
back southwestward across the plains. It should slow however, so
at earliest would think around 08Z but more likely closer to 10Z
at KDEN. LIFR/VLIFR ceilings and visibility expected to develop as
the low clouds and fog move in. Same expected at KBJC, but a
couple hours earlier at KGXY and KFNL. Should see visibility drop
to 1/4SM-1/2SM in the fog. Farther south at KAPA, not sure if
they`ll get the fog as it will be confined to locations along and
north of the developing Denver convergence zone. Fog and stratus
should burn off around 15Z-17Z, favoring the latter times for
points north of KDEN and KBJC.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
836 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.UPDATE...
Main forecast concern tonight is fog as the recent rain event has
left behind a very wet boundary layer and still broken stratus,
along with lingering easterly surface winds. Already received
report of fog at Red Lodge, and HRRR has been suggestive of fog as
far west as Big Timber and Harlowton (reasonable given the
evolving SE flow). So have adjusted fog in grids to include
western areas closer to the foothills. Fog could actually become
less of an issue later tonight/early Sunday as southerly 850mb
winds increase, which we are already seeing at some raws stations.
Have also tweaked sky and winds given current conditions, and
dropped expected low temps in spots. Will continue to monitor fog
potential this evening. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...
System that brought widespread rainfall to the area last night
into this morning has shifted east of the area, leaving behind
plenty of low level moisture. Expect areas of fog to develop
fairly early this evening as temperature/dew point spreads never
got very wide today (3 to 5 degrees). Outside of the fog it will
be a pretty quiet night across the area with temperatures in the
30s and a south wind developing by morning over southern half of
the forecast area.
Sunday will be a transition day as southerly winds will increase
bringing warmer air into the area. Afternoon temperatures will be
in the 60s across the area and should be a good deal of sun mid-
day. By late afternoon conditions will begin to change as a
disturbance from the southwest approaches the area. Increasing
cloud cover and chances for precipitation will spread from
southwest to northeast. Should see a good chance of showers over
areas around Livingston into the Beartooth mountains by late
afternoon. Should be just enough instability and energy on the
nose of a strong jet streak to have a chance for an isolated
thunderstorm mixed in.
Sunday night and Monday will be active across the area. Energy
associated with a strong southwest to northeast moving jet stream
along with strong 700mb frontogenesis will produce a band of
significant precipitation somewhere from Billings west to Big
Timber. The mean position in the ensembles is from Big Timber
northeast to Roundup, with over half an inch of precipitation
being progged Sunday night in this area. As the jet shifts north
of the area it will drag this precipitation area into north
central Montana and mostly out of our area by mid morning Monday.
Southeast Montana gets left out of this precipitation for the most
part. For trick-or-treating it looks dry across our area with
maybe just a stray shower from Miles City to Baker.
Winds will be the main issue from early Monday morning through
most of the day. Orientation of the incoming jet stream is
favorable for mountain wave activity along the Beartooth and Big
Horn mountains. Placement of the precipitation and any associated
cold pool will have a lot to due with whether a mountain wave
event does develop and if so how strong it will be. The further
east the precipitation band develops the less wind can be expected
from any mountain wave activity. For now expect some stronger
winds in the 40 to 50 mph range for Red Lodge and Sheridan before
sunrise on Monday morning. There are some indications from the
NAM12 that stronger gusts are possible so will have to monitor
this for possible wind highlites. Once precipitation ends after
sunrise expect downslope westerly winds to increase with
widespread gusts of 40 to 50 mph developing across the area. Some
locally stronger gusts will be possible over higher hilltop
locations. Highs will drop back into the 50s on Monday afternoon.
Chambers
.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...
No changes to the extended forecast this afternoon. A more ridge
dominant pattern takes hold for the extended period with the first
real disturbance not moving through until next weekend. Some
periods of stronger winds for the western foothills can be
expected through the week, strongest probably Friday ahead of the
upper disturbance. Temperatures will be pleasant through the
period at right around 60 degrees each day. Chambers
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR to local IFR ceilings will break up this evening. However,
areas of fog are expected to develop this evening and overnight
affecting portions of the area. In particular, late evening and
early morning flights out of KBIL may be significantly impacted by
this fog development. Chambers/STP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/063 046/060 039/058 037/060 039/061 039/061 041/061
02/T 62/W 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 038/064 043/057 039/056 036/058 038/059 038/060 040/060
03/T 82/W 11/B 10/U 00/N 00/U 01/U
HDN 036/066 043/062 037/061 034/063 034/062 036/063 037/062
02/T 42/W 10/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 037/063 045/059 037/059 036/061 035/060 035/060 038/060
00/B 34/W 10/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 037/068 046/062 035/061 034/062 034/064 034/064 037/063
00/B 11/N 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 035/059 041/056 034/058 033/059 034/061 032/059 035/059
00/B 23/W 10/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 034/065 041/060 032/059 030/061 032/062 032/062 035/062
02/T 21/N 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
812 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and unseasonably warm conditions will persist through the
Sunday. An upper level trough and associated cold front will move
through the area Monday/early Tuesday. Limited moisture indicates
a dry frontal passage. Then, an upper level ridge and surface high
pressure will move over the region reinforcing dry conditions
through mid next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH tonight/...
Weak upper level ridging will begin to shift eastward tonight,
causing the surface high centered over the eastern Carolinas to
shift offshore. Skies will be predominately clear and surface
winds will be light. Latest Rap and Nam indicate a 15 to 20 knot
low level jet toward morning may be a limiting factor for strong
radiational cooling. Based on overnight minimum temperatures
last night and current higher dew points...expect temperatures
mainly higher than last night by a few degrees. So...temperatures
should fall into the lower and mid 50s across most areas for lows
tonight.
There is the potential for some patchy fog to develop toward
daybreak, especially across parts of the eastern Midlands and
lower CSRA where low level moisture will be greatest. As a result,
patchy fog forecast for those areas on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Expect unseasonably warm weather to continue through Monday.
Surface high pressure off the coast will allow for SW surface
winds with W/NW mid-level flow, leading to downsloping over the
area. 850mb temperatures around 14C will support high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and near possible record
highs.
An upper level trough and associated cold front will move
move into the region Monday. Moisture appears limited so no
precipitation is expected. The backdoor cold front will push
through the forecast area Monday as high pressure moves into the
Northeast ridges into the mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will remain
well above normal on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Cooler and drier air will move in towards the end of the short
term.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper ridge and surface high pressure will continue the dry,
warm pattern through mid-week. A backdoor front will push south of
the area Tuesday. Models indicate some shallow stratus through
late morning will be possible. Leaned slightly towards cooler
highs on Tuesday with increased cloud cover/insulation.
Models show an upper level trough moving into the eastern United
States near the end of the week but differ on the timing and
location of a possible frontal passage. Guidance has trended
towards a dry frontal passage late in the period. High
temperatures will remain above normal, in the 80s, through mid-
week. Cooler weather will arrive near the end of the period with
increased cloud cover and cooler air behind the front.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry surface high pressure will shift off the coast tonight and
ridge into the forecast area from the east for Sunday. Clear skies
and light winds overnight will result in decent radiation
conditions promoting patchy fog development. Hi-resolution models
show the better chance east where moisture is more abundant. Have
continued to indicate MVFR from 07/08Z through 13Z at fog prone
AGS and OGB with a TEMPO LIFR group. Limited low level moisture
and a 20 knot low level jet should prevent widespread
development. After early morning fog burns off, VFR conditions
will prevail through the end of the TAF period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Late night/early morning fog
possible.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures 10/29-10/31
10/29 10/30 10/31
CAE 86/1919 88/1984 88/1950
AGS 85/1996 90/1984 89/1961
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
929 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving across the region will bring a cold front
across the area tonight into early Sunday. High pressure will
gradually builds into the region later Sunday through Monday
night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9:29 PM Update...Low pressure along the Maine/Quebec border will
scoot quickly east across the area late this evening into the
early morning hours. The low will be well east of the area by
daybreak Sunday. Showers are moving rapidly east across the CWA
with rainfall amounts thus far between 0.1-0.3" across northern
areas, with no rain along the coast. The last of the showers will
exit to the east of the area around or shortly after midnight.
Just minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast based on the 9 PM
observations and the latest radar and near term model trends.
Previous discussion...
Challenge this term will be rainfall amounts.
Low pres was moving toward the region and is forecast to move
across the area overnight. The latest radar loop indicated precip
moving across the region w/the most concentrated area across
central and downeast areas. Another area of rain is showing up in the
northern areas under an area of upper difluence and llvl
convergence. Carried the highest rainfall chances across the
northern 1/2 of the CWA overnight w/pops at 70+% through 11 pm and
then chances drop off. Rainfall totals are expected to be
0.15-0.25 basin average. The latest run of the NAM12 and HRRR
matching well w/the current setup. Temps will be in the 40s for
just about everywhere through the evening and then readings will
drop off after midnight as the associated cold front swings across
the region w/some weak caa. Temps dropping back into the 30s for
the northern and central areas w/downeast seeing around 40 or so.
Some sites back across the n and could be cold enough for snow to
mix w/the leftover shower activity by pre-dawn hrs Sunday.
Sunday will feature quite bit of cloud cover and daytime temps
just below normal for late October. Cyclonic flow w/an upper trof
will lead to some spotty light rain showers during the day w/a
northwest breeze of 10-15 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fairly quiet weather expected this period. An upper trough will
swing across the region Sunday night and there may be just enough
lingering moisture to squeeze out a few showers over the higher
terrain of the north and west. High pressure will then begin to
build over the region Monday, crest over the state Monday night,
and shift east later Tuesday. As such, expect Monday and Monday
night will be dry. Moisture looks to get trapped under the
subsidence inversion on Monday, so have gone a bit more
pessimistic on cloud cover through much of the day and, in fact,
later shifts may even need to increase clouds more as the day
draws nearer. Drier air works in Monday night though, and with the
loss of daytime heating/mixing, skies should clear out in the
evening. Clouds will increase again on Tuesday as our next system
approaches from the west. Any precipitation with this system will
hold off until late in the day, though the Saint John Valley could
see a few showers in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain below
normal through the period; highs will only be in the lower to mid
40s on Monday, perhaps a few degrees warmer on Tuesday with a bit
more sunshine. Cloud cover will keep Sunday night`s temperatures
in the lower and mid 30s, but clearing skies and light winds will
allow Monday night`s lows to be in the 20s in locations away from
the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected through the long term with a
weather system affecting the region every few days. The first
comes through Tuesday night with an upper shortwave crossing
southern Quebec/northern Maine, bringing the threat for mainly
rain showers; a bit of snow may mix in at the higher elevations.
High pressure and dry weather briefly resume Wednesday and
Wednesday night, but then low pressure is progged to move across
central New England Thursday and along the Maine coast/over the
Gulf of Maine Thursday night. This would bring another round of
precipitation, particularly for central and Downeast regions.
Another brief break for Friday, then another stronger shortwave
trough for Saturday. Daytime temperatures will mainly be colder
than seasonal normal, while overnight should be close to normal
owing to cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR to low end MVFR at the northern terminals late this
evening and overnight...with MVFR expected Sunday. MVFR at KBGR
and KBHB this evening will improve to VFR overnight with VFR
conditions Sunday.
SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions, mainly due to ceilings, are likely
Sunday night as an upper disturbance crosses the region, possibly
producing a few rain or snow showers. Northern terminals have the
best chances of seeing MVFR. VFR conditions will resume by 18-21z
Monday as clouds gradually lift and dissipate through the day. VFR
will prevail thereafter until after 00z Wed when another system
brings precipitation and MVFR conditions. Occasional IFR will be
possible in heavier showers 00z- 12z Wed. The next shot of IFR
arrives after 12z Thursday, this time mainly south, as low
pressure treks along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels through Sunday. Some wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are expected late tonight into Sunday as low pressure pulls
away from the region. The seas will likely build to 4 to 5 feet
on the coastal waters, but with an offshore wind the seas will
likely remain below small craft advisory levels.
SHORT TERM: No headlines are anticipated at this time. However, wind
gusts may approach 25 kt on Monday as north winds increase ahead of
high pressure. Subsequent shifts will need to monitor trends to
determine if gusts will exceed 25 kt. The high will crest over the
waters Monday night and Tuesday, causing the winds to subside. Seas
will remain below 5 ft through Tuesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...CB/Hewitt
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...CB/Hewitt/Hastings
Marine...CB/Hewitt/Hastings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
554 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight - Monday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Quiet weather this evening in the wake of a fast moving short-wave
which tracked across the CWA this afternoon. Strong subsidence has
developed behind this feature, so breezy to windy conditions could
persist over southeast Wyoming through late afternoon. Low stratus
is still very thick over the northern Nebraska Panhandle, and most
likely will not burn off as T/Td spreads at CDR and AIA are only 3
to 5 deg F. Deep boundary layer moisture and decreasing winds late
tonight will promote fog development over the high plains. A swath
of stronger mid-level flow moves over our western zones on Sunday,
peaking around 45 knots at H7 per both the GFS/NAM. Any areas that
see more sunshine than others will see steeper lapse rates w/gusty
winds likely as a result, mainly west of the Laramie Range. We may
get very close to High Wind Warning criteria at Rawlins during the
mid afternoon hours on Sunday, but expect more significant weather
to occur Sunday night and Monday.
A widespread high wind event still appears likely from 06z Monday-
00z Tuesday. The GFS/NAM/ECMWF are all in excellent agreement with
a vigorous mid-level shortwave tracking across across our northern
zones during that time, which is a favorable pattern for high wind
over our northern and western zones. An accompanying cold front is
expected to yield very steep lapse rates even early in the morning
so mixing is not expected to be a limiting factor. By 3 AM, 700 to
800 mb winds will have increased to 60-70 knots over Carbon/Albany
counties with a maximum CAG-CPR gradient of 70 meters. Guidance is
showing 30 knot sustained winds for RWL by 09z, so expect the RWL-
LAR corridor (including ARL) to be gusting over 60 MPH by then. As
the surface low moves into western SD by 12z Monday, gradients are
expected to tighten over the Laramie Range, and the core of strong
H7-H8 flow nudges further east as well with strong downward motion
becoming more widespread. Model soundings are a bit scary for KLAR
at 5 AM with dry adiabatic lapse rates and 66 knots sitting at the
top of the mixed layer 2000-4000 feet above the sfc, so that leads
us to believe Laramie and the Laramie Range zones will see overall
winds ramping up no later than sunrise. A High Wind Watch has been
posted given high confidence in strong winds. We also included the
lower elevations of Converse county with very strong flow expected
to remain overhead through Monday afternoon up there. Later shifts
may need to consider adding Niobrara county as well, and likely at
least a Wind Advisory for the northern NE Panhandle. Winds will be
on the downtrend by late afternoon as gradients weaken.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
The long range models continue to show a quiet weather pattern from
Tuesday through Friday of next week. A weak upper trough will move
overhead on Tuesday night. Other than an increase in cloud cover
areawide and a chance of precip over the western mtns, this system
will have little impact. Ridging aloft will occur by
Wednesday/Thursday across the CWA. With the CAG-CPR gradient
remaining mostly below 25 meters and rather weak flow aloft, not
expecting much wind through Friday. Temps be slightly above normal
with highs mostly in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 552 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Stationary front along the east slopes of the Laramie Range this
afternoon. IFR stratus observed over the northern Panhandle
expected to move southwest this evening. Used latest HRRR guidance
on timing of the onset of stratus that could even make it into
KCYS by 06Z this evening. Gusty southwest winds Sunday will clear
out the low level moisture and push the front east of the Nebraska
Panhandle by late morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
A period of elevated fire weather conditions is possible on Monday
morning and early afternoon over Converse and Niobrara counties as
well as the northern Nebraska Panhandle. Strong winds will combine
with RH values of 15 to 20 percent and dry fuels which may promote
rapid fire growth. However, a strong cold front moving through the
area will likely lead to increasing humidity values by late in the
morning or early afternoon. Otherwise, no concerns.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon
for WYZ101-104>106-109-110-115>117.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
540 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 531 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Update has been sent out to account for the faster arrival of
stratus deck behind the front that has blasted through the area.
Satellite and surface observations show stratus approaching the
northern portion of the area at this time. The Rap and Hrrr are
catching this cloud deck well. So updated accordingly which skies
should be mostly cloudy to cloudy by late evening. Also started
the fog a few hours sooner as well based on the above.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Cold front continues to make its way through the forecast area and
should clear it completely by 00z. Northerly winds will diminish
by late afternoon and become light northeasterly. Fairly extensive
stratus deck already lurking across the Nebraska panhandle and
will probably arrive in southwest Nebraska by 05z or 06z and into
the remainder of the area overnight. Areas of fog will also
develop in northeast Colorado and the immediate counties along the
Colorado border, which could be dense by sunrise, with patchy fog
elsewhere. Fog and stratus will slowly burn off by 18z Sunday with
partly to mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Assuming that
timing works out, Sunday afternoon highs will reach the upper 60s
to lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
SW flow Monday transitions to split flow by Thursday and shortwave
ridging building back over our CWA by next weekend. Dry conditions
are expected due to an unfavorable storm track and a deep dry air
mass that will prevail through these periods. Guidance continues to
show upper level trough splitting around our CWA Wednesday. There
may be some high based virga or a few sprinkles, but confidence is
low and no measurable precipitation is expected.
Regarding temperatures: Above normal temperatures are forecast
through the extended period, with the warmest temperatures Monday
ahead of an approaching cold front. Timing of front is currently
favoring Monday afternoon, complicating highs in the north. In the
south highs may reach the mid to upper 80s. This cold front will
bring a slightly cooler air mass into the region with temps back to
the upper 60s/lower 70s (still above normal). A second cold front
drops through our CWA Wednesday which could bring temps a little
closer to normal, though current consensus is still favoring highs
in the mid to upper 60s (above normal).
Regarding fire weather Monday: A period of breezy to windy conditions
is possible with the front moving into the region Monday, however RH
values are still not projected to reach critical criteria across
much of our area. Even if they do drop below 15 percent, confidence
is low this would remain below 15 percent for 3hr.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 531 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Cold front strong cold air advection and increasing boundary layer
moisture behind will continue to move through the area. For
Kgld...Based on observations upstream and latest Rap and Hrrr
catching the advancing stratus deck well, have mvfr conditions at
the site by late evening. Ifr conditions are expected to develop
around 09z and last until 16z when conditions improve mvfr. By 18z
vfr conditions are expected and will continue through the rest of
the period. Between 18z and 21z southerly winds near 15 knots with
gusts to near 23 knots will develop.
For Kmck...through 02z mvfr conditions will develop at the site as
northeast winds near 15 knots with gusts in the 20 to 25 knot
range end. From 02z to 06z ifr conditions are expected with mvfr
conditions expected from 06z to near 15z. After 15z vfr conditions
are expected through the rest of the period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BULLER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1027 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will track across
Quebec tonight. This low will drag a trailing cold front across
the region Sunday and move to the south of our area by Sunday
evening while another weak low travels along it. High pressure
will build in from the west Monday. Low pressure will pass by well
to our north midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1020 PM...Did some fine tuning of POPS for this update, but
nothing drastic. Synoptic showers associated with a wave aloft
and approaching wind shift line will give way to upslope showers
over the next few hours, before these taper off and become very
isolated around daybreak. Otherwise, temps/wind adjusted based on
current obs, with temps not moving much through most of the night.
7 PM...made some POP adjustments to clear the rain from the coast
and just go with sct showers in the mountains tonight. Also
adjusted temps to rise a bit through the evening and then steady
off or drop a bit behind the wind shift in the north, but probably
will stay steadier toward the coast, where winds will struggle to
mix down overnight. Also, added some patchy fog /despite none of
the numerical models showing it/, given limited mixing and wet
ground with rising Tds.
Previously...A weak area of warm air advection aloft will
continue the light showers into the early evening over most areas
and then being confined to mainly the mountains later tonight as a
more westerly flow sets up. Started off by using current pops off
radar and then combined extrapolation and HRRR into the early
evening. Downsloping winds should limit any showers to the
mountains later tonight. Used a blend of guidance for overnight
lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front associated with an upper trough moves through the
area Sunday afternoon. This will cause some scattered -shra in
the mountains but downslope areas should remain dry as winds shift
to the northwest. By late in the afternoon the cold front should
be south of the area but a weak wave of low pressure may form
along it over central New England, as models try to hint
at...this may cause a few showers over southern areas of NH/ME later
in the day or early evening. By later in the evening the surface
and upper system quickly exit to the east allowing clearing and
colder weather to move into the area as Canadian high pressure
builds into the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The period starts Mon with a compact...seasonably strong s/wv trof
crossing the area. This will usher in below normal mid level temps
across the area. This will translate to breezy and slightly below
normal afternoon highs Mon. High pressure quickly builds in Mon
night...and will allow for strong radiational cooling. MOS
guidance seems to have a fair handle on it at this range...so
blended the forecast heavily in the direction of the cooler
MAV/MET.
High pressure holds over Ern parts of the forecast area thru
midweek...in response to building heights over the SErn CONUS.
This will deflect another s/wv N into Canada Tue. The trailing
cold front may brush Nrn zones...with some upslope showers
possible along the favored Wrn slopes. After midweek...SErn CONUS
ridging will retrograde towards the middle of the country. This
leaves more room for the next s/wv to dig a little more across the
East Coast. This wave will send a cold front across the area
likely bringing an end to a decent stretch of mild wx for late
Oct/early Nov. Ensemble guidance favors East Coast trofing heading
into next weekend...with at or below normal temps most likely.
Despite a fairly active pattern...the system will be moisture
starved...and ensemble QPF for the period looks to average below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through Sunday/...Variable conditions to IFR/MVFR in
-shra into this evening otherwise VFR elsewhere. By 04z most
conditions mainly VFR except MVFR in any -shra in the mountains.
VFR Sunday into Sunday night with sct MVFR in sct -shra mainly
confined to the mountains.
Long Term...Mainly VFR expected for the first half of the work
week. High pressure will be in control for most terminals. A s/wv
trof passing N of the area Tue will bring the possibility of MVFR
or lower CIGS to HIE...and either SHRA or SHSN depending on the
time of day.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday night/...Winds will be light tonight
although seas over the outer waters will range from 4-6 ft at
times based on guidance so will continue a SCA due to seas until
10z. Winds to become west and then northwest behind a cold front
that moves through in the afternoon. Winds and seas should both
remain SCA levels Sunday and Sunday night since not much of a
gradient wind behind the cold front.
Long Term...High pressure will be in control of the waters into
midweek. A cold front crossing the waters late in the week may
bring winds and seas above SCA thresholds.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
350 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Dry and warmer weather mixed with fog and low stratus will highlight
the short term forecast.
Fog will be the forecast challenge in the southwest for much of
Sunday Morning. The 07Z RAP and HRRR are indicating patchy dense fog
primarily in the southwest.
For the rest of the day, low stratus in place over western and
central areas is expected to linger for much of the day. Western
areas should see an erosion in the stratus layer by early afternoon;
agreed upon well within the 07Z HiRes models.
Surface high pressure will continue an eastward scoot, as a leading
warm front begins to push into the southwest, ahead of the next
surface low. Highs around eight degrees above average are forecast
for southwestern areas; while the rest of the CWA will be near
average.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
The week will start with widespread chances for rain and strong
winds on Monday. Otherwise, above average temperatures and dry
weather highlights the long term forecast.
Surface low pressure coupled with mid/upper level troughing is
projected to move northeastward across the state through Monday.
Widespread chances for rain are favorable though the highest
probability will be north. Strong westerly winds will accompany the
surface low across central and southern areas. Winds in the
southwest will be near wind advisory, a headline may be warranted.
For the rest of the long term, the 00Z global suites are projecting
progressive flow aloft, as a series of mid/upper level troughs and
ridges propagate across North Dakota. This pattern favors continued
above normal temperatures through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
MVFR stratus will impact each of the TAF sites; clearing to VFR
ceilings is expected towards the latter half of the 06Z TAF period.
Dense fog at KDIK is forecast to create IFR and LIFR conditions
through much of Sunday morning.
Widespread showers are forecast to move into the area around 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
451 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.AVIATION...
Lapse rates that have been supportive of upstream thunder will be
transitioning across the southern portion of the Detroit area just
prior to TAF issuance time. By 12z...pockets of instability
containing thunder are expected to move south and east of the area.
Light rain will end from north to south between 13z and 17z today.
North winds filling in behind will bring lake enhancement off of
Lake huron to the diurnal cu field and should ensure MVFR to perhaps
low VFR particularly at PTK and in the Detroit area which will be
immediately downstream. Loss of heating and building high pressure
this evening will force clouds to scatter.
For DTW...Extrapolation of upstream tstorms near KAZO suggests
arrival near KDTW around 11z. A 09z amendment contains a tempo
for -TSRA. This activity is expected to shift out of the area by
12z. Northeast wind will back to northerly and will likely remain
near noise abatement thresholds until high pressure arrives
tonight and wind diminishes. Cigs will remain below 5kft for most
or all of the day as well.
//DTW Threshold Probabilities...
* High for cigs aob 5kft.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
DISCUSSION...
There are two active layers to the sloped frontal boundary that is
in place over the western and central Great Lakes this morning. The
first is over Northern Lower Michigan, the 800-750 mb layer of the
front where numerous to categorical showers have been ongoing for a
good portion of the night. The second active layer, 900-800 mb, is
over portions of northern IL eastward into far southern MI. Been
seeing some increase the past couple of hours in smaller accas
convective elements over MI, while a line of elevated thunderstorms
has initiated north of Chicago out into southern Lake Michigan.
This morning. NWP and observations support more of the recent ECMWF
solution that supports a more unified height fall response over
sections of southeastern Michigan between 12-18Z. The geopotential
height falls will be driven by favorable synoptic scale ascent that
will occur in response to a tandem of shortwaves turning to a
negative tilt and favorable left exit region jet dynamics. The main
thing is with this forcing is that it will be overhead very, very
briefly. However, given the favorable active layer to the baroclinic
zone in place over far southern lower Michigan, the feeling is that
likely to categorical rain shield will fill in over southeastern
Michigan between 10-16Z from nw to se in the cwa. Not alot of
support for significant QPF, perhaps as much as a .10 to .25 inch.
The thunderstorm activity upstream has overachieved from a lightning
obs perspective. SPC RAP based mesoanalysis suggests as much as 250
J/KG MUCAPE exists to the south of the active 900-800mb layer.
Forecast soundings do in fact show good enough lapse rates between
800-300mb to support a small amount of MUCAPE through daybreak. Will
continue the mention for a thunderstorm through 12Z with some slight
increase in system relative isentropic ascent in the 09-12Z time
window. No severe weather.
With the surface cold front boundary south of Lower Michigan already
by 12Z looking at a cool day with relatively light northerly flow in
place. Clouds will make it difficult for temperatures to respond,
pushing lower 50s in many areas this afternoon.
Strong, stable anticyclone tonight will allow temperatures to drop
into the middle to lower 30s areawide.
Residual flow off the retreating surface anticyclone will make it
difficult for the surface to rebound much on Monday. Highs will
remain stuck in the lower 50s. For those with outside interests
Monday evening, dry, increasing clouds, insignificant southeasterly
wind direction, and temperatures dropping into the upper 40s by 7 pm
EDT.
Warm advection will kick into high gear late Monday night and
Tuesday as a deep midlevel trough advances into the Great Plains.
There are some serious questions with exactly how high of quality
the moisture will be with this system locally. Models are trying to
spit out some QPF for Tuesday morning which at first glance would
appear to be some elevated moisture return. However, the moisture is
all locked in the lower troposphere under what appears to be very
active midlevel subsidence. So the question then becomes how much
are the models overdoing this low level moisture. Actually think the
offered guidance is a good position to be in which is dry for the
Detroit Metro area. Otherwise, the big picture is not a good one for
dynamic ascent for precipitation with depictions of veered out flow
and anticyclonic flow trajectories aloft for all of southeastern
Michigan. In fact, this anticyclonic flow appears to be so strong
that it will stall out a frontal boundary to the north of
southeastern Michigan. Tuesday could get really warm.
MARINE...
Moderate north to northwest winds will persist through today before
a brief reprieve tonight into Monday as high pressure settles over
the waters. Fresh to strong southerly flow will then ramp up late
Monday into Monday night in advance of the next system. Stable
southerly flow will help keep wind gusts contained...but gusts to
near-gales are still possible late Monday night. Light wind for
midweek.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......JVC
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
324 AM CDT SUN OCT 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
07z/2am surface map shows cold front sinking into north-central
Illinois...extending from near Pontiac to just south of Galesburg.
Most of the KILX CWA remains south of the boundary with current
temps still in the middle 60s. Meanwhile further north behind the
front, temps have dropped into the lower to middle 50s across
northern Illinois. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed north of the front in advance of a short-wave
trough...mainly along and north of the I-80 corridor. A few showers
may graze the far northern CWA early this morning: however, it
appears the bulk of the precip will remain to the north. HRRR
continues to suggest a period of patchy fog along the front where
winds are nearly calm and dewpoints are pooling in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees. Have seen some evidence of this at both KIKK and
KPNT over the past couple of hours, so have included fog mention as
far south as I-72 for a few hours this morning. The front will
eventually settle southward into the Ohio River Valley later today,
resulting in cool northeast winds across the entire area. High
temperatures will be a bit tricky, depending on exact timing of
front and associated wind shift. Highs will remain in the upper 50s
across the far north where winds are already from the
northeast...while readings will climb into the middle 70s further
south along/south of the I-70 corridor where partial sunshine and
southwesterly winds will persist the longest.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
High pressure will shift across the region on Monday, allowing winds
to veer from northeasterly to southeasterly. The increasing
southerly flow combined with partial afternoon sunshine will help
boost temperatures: however, limited mixing up to about 900mb will
temper the warming somewhat...with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. Once the high moves further away and winds become
southwesterly, a big warm-up will take place by Tuesday. Thanks to
unseasonably high upper heights and deeper mixing, highs will reach
near record values in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Next frontal boundary is still slated to arrive across central
Illinois late Wednesday into Thursday. Airmass ahead of the front
will become very moist, with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s and
precipitable water values near climatological records for early
November of around 1.50 by 00z Thu. Given ample moisture, strong
convergence along the approaching boundary, and good upper support,
have bumped PoPs to likely across nearly the entire area Wednesday
night. Will also mention thunder as GFS MUCAPE values climb to
around 400J/kg...especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. Front
will quickly shift into the Ohio River Valley on Thursday, with
just a few lingering rain showers across east-central and
southeast Illinois during the morning. Despite FROPA, airmass
behind boundary will be of Pacific origin and will therefore
remain on the mild side. High temperatures for Thursday through
Saturday will drop into the middle to upper 60s, which is still
5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Cold front settling southward into central IL expected to bring
showers and isolated thunderstorms as far south as I-74 including
terminals KPIA-KBMI-KCMI from around 11Z-16Z...as well as a period
of MVFR cigs lifting to VFR by afternoon Saturday. Some potential
for lower ceilings however upstream observations have not shown
IFR ceilings developing so far. Thunderstorms appear too isolated
for mention in TAFs at this time. Winds SW under 10 kts initially
veering to N-NE around 10 kts behind the front.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
333 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Much cooler air compared to yesterday will filter into the area
behind a cold front dropping through the Ohio Valley. A band of showers
and isolated thunderstorms will push through the area this
morning with skies slowly clearing this afternoon. High
temperatures will range from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s
south. High pressure will in tonight with chilly low temperatures
in the 30s expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Cold front continues to sag swd across the area this morning and
should clear far srn counties by daybreak. Coupled upper jet
induced frontal scale circulation well underway from ern WI ewd
through nrn lower MI and expected to shift se into nrn OH after
daybreak. Upstream 00Z soundings fairly dry but narrow ribbon of
moisture seen in the H85mb layer and currently bubbling from ne IA
through srn WI. Near term highres guidance has for all intent and
purposes lost what little signal it had earlier and will follow
recent HRRR augmented through extrapolation of current upstream
echoes. Otherwise vigorous low level cold advection this morning
will temper out this aftn timed with some indicated
clearing...namely w/nw where some diurnal rebound should be
realized.
Sfc ridge will quickly follow ewd through the Lakes tonight.
Clear/clearing skies within renewed low level drying will result in
chilly temps especially with n/ne extent and could see some
potential freezing low temps in outlying cold drainage areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Strong thermal moderation this period after Monday as strong warm
advection/thermal ridging develops ewd of next upstream disturbance
lifting newd out of the nrn Rockies. Given good consensus
indications of intense low level ridge...deep mixing and potential
spoiler high cloud plume holding north should see near record high
temps over srn areas. However Wed records likely safe as cloud
debris limits mixing heights within more subdued thermal ridge.
Rain chcs tied to tail end of ewd progressing sw disturbance through
James Bay remain quite uncertain with vastly differing spectral
based solutions aloft...namely with potential secondary sys
amplifying within base of trough late Wed. Trending stronger
solutions aloft would bring much better dynamical forcing south into
the OH river valley and maximize moisture transport/flux into
incoming frontal zone. Still not ready to jump headlong into this
scenario given evolution of current short term sys. Will temper an
otherwise optimistic blend.
Aside from that shallow cold advection follows on Thu after which
renewed thermal ridging builds back into the wrn Lakes next weekend.
Regardless steadfast above normal temps to persist.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Surface frontal boundary will be slow to sag south across the
remainder of northeast Indiana tonight, but will get some push by
next upstream short wave currently tracking across western Lake
Superior/northwest Wisconsin vicinity. A fairly strong low/mid
level post-sfc frontal baroclinic zone will continue to shift
south across the southern Great Lakes for the remainder of the
overnight hours. As this low level boundary sags south, potential
of MVFR cigs will increase in the 08z-10Z timeframe from north to
south with at least some lower end potential of IFR cigs through
early morning. Drier low level air advecting into the area during
the mid-late morning hours should take cigs back to MVFR levels,
and to eventual VFR after 18Z. North winds around 10 knots can be
expected behind the front for the day, but speeds will diminish
early evening as sfc high settles across the Great Lakes.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Marsili
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
349 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Cold front over northern Missouri into west central Illinois will
drift south today. By 18Z the front should be along or just south
of the MO I-44/IL I-64 corridor, and then down into far southeast
Missouri by 00Z Monday. There is some rain up over north central
Illinois, but it looks like the best dynamical support for precip
will stay north of the CWFA. The ESRL and operational HRRR models
do break out what looks like isolated sprinkles later in the day,
but every other model is dry so have kept the forecast dry today.
Temperatures will be tricky due to the cold advection behind the
front. Think southeast Missouri will get into the upper 70s to near
80, while northeast Missouri and west central Illinois will struggle
to get into the mid 60s. The high behind the front will move east-
southeast across the Great Lakes tonight. Wind will turn from the
northeast to the southeast by 12Z. Since we`ll be on the periphery
of the high, it looks like the wind won`t drop off as much as it
otherwise would. Lows Monday morning will be cooler than this
morning`s readings, but without good radiational cooling conditions
it looks like lows will only dip into the 50s over most of the area.
Carney
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Unseaonably warm weather can be expected on Monday as a weak warm
front lifts north-northeastward through our area with
southerly/southwesterly surface/low level winds and upper level
ridging over our region. The only limiting factor for near record
highs on Monday will be low level cloudiness expected during the
morning, but this should clear out in the afternoon as the warm
front lifts north-northeast of our forecast area. A shortwave
moving eastward through the northern Plains and Great Lakes regions
Monday night and Tuesday will send a cold front southward, but it
appears it will stay just north of our forecast area along with any
precipitation or colder air associated with it. Tuesday will likely
be even warmer than Monday with continued southerly/southwesterly
surface/low level winds. Showers and a few storms can be expected
on Wednesday, especially across northeast and central MO and west
central IL as a positively tilted upper level trough and associated
cold front approaches with a southwesterly low level jet bringing
increasing low level temperature and moisture advection into our
area. The threat for rain will shift southeastward through our area
Wednesday night and Thursday morning due to strong upper level
divergence ahead of the upper level trough and as the cold front
moves southeastward through our forecast area. The models have
become more consistent and it appears that the rain will shift
southeast of the forecast area by Thursday afternoon. Cooler
temperatures are expected Thursday and Thursday night due to cold
air advection behind the cold front with northwesterly upper level
flow behind the upper level trough. The weather looks dry into the
weekend as a surface ridge moves slowly southeastward through the
region with an upper level ridge shifting slowly eastward into the
central US. The temperatures from Thursday through Saturday will be
closer to seasonal normals.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: A cold front will reach KUIN within the
next several hours and then reach KCOU towards daybreak. A wind
shift and widespread MVFR cigs are expected after fropa. Cigs may
become VFR after 18z. Winds will continue veering through the end
of the TAF period.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: A cold front will reach the St.
Louis metro area after 12z. A wind shift and MVFR cigs are
expected after fropa. Improvement to VFR may not occur until
after 31/00z. Winds will continue veering through the end of the
TAF period.
Kanofsky
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
The warm weather will continue across southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois today, with very warm temperatures expected
areawide Monday and Tuesday. Some records may be threatened mainly
on Tuesday when the warmest temperatures are forecast.
STL COU UIN
Sun10/3090/195089/195090/1950
Mon10/3188/196887/195088/1950
Tue 11/1 86/1937 84/1938 83/1938
KD/PW/GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
331 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Forecasting temperatures today is the first challenge, then near
record warmth and elevated fire weather conditions on Monday are
the next concerns. Rain chances may return by the middle of the
week.
Today, lowered high temperatures several degrees in many locations.
A cold front will continue to push south today and possibly stall
somewhere near a Seymour Texas to Atoka line by 4 pm today according
to the latest HRRR, which is farther south than previously forecast.
Low stratus clouds 600-2000 ft AGL north of the front in Kansas
will continue to push south and affect at least areas north of
I-40 by 10 am this morning. These clouds may be difficult to erode
thanks to north to northeasterly winds combined with a low sun
angle. As a result, lowered highs several degrees to take a blend
of 00 UTC MAV/METMOS guidance anywhere north of the cold front.
The cooler 00 UTC METMOS highs in the lower 60s could verify
across parts of central and northern Oklahoma if low cloud cover
lingers all afternoon. Latest HRRR runs have been depicting the
low level cloud cover will erode this afternoon, but this may be
too fast. Highs will remain in the lower to mid 80s south of the
front in parts of western north Texas and far southern Oklahoma.
Tonight, the weak front will slowly lift north as a weak warm
front. Low level cloud cover may linger over northern Oklahoma.
There is an outside chance of fog formation nearly anywhere north
of the front, but did not mention due to low confidence of
occurrence. Model guidance lows appeared to be reasonable.
Monday will be partly to mostly sunny, breezy to windy, and
warmer with near record highs. Elevated fire weather will result,
especially in northwestern Oklahoma where surface winds will be
highest and lowest surface humidity are forecast. Guidance highs
in the 80s appeared to be reasonable.
Tuesday will remain warm and breezy, though cloud cover and low
level moisture will be on the increase.
Tuesday night through Saturday, warm weather will likely continue,
though much uncertainty remains whether or not it will be a wet or
dry pattern during this time frame. Latest models have not depicted
too much consistency with a mid/upper cut off low somewhere across
the southwest U.S. or Southern Plains. For now, kept rain chances
during this time frame, but confidence remains low.
MBS
&&
.CLIMATE...
Highs may not be too far from record highs on Monday. Here are
the records for Oklahoma City and Wichita Falls on Monday.
Oklahoma City
October 31...86 set in 1938
Wichita Falls
October 31...92 set in 1934
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 70 58 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 70 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 79 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 67 54 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 67 56 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 85 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
23/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
844 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Added a mention of patchy freezing drizzle to the Turtle Mountains
this morning where surface temperatures are sub-freezing with the
lack of ice-crystals aloft above low stratus and fog per IR
satellite temperature trends through 13 UTC.
UPDATE Issued at 811 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Quick update for aviation ceiling trends for today. See the
aviation discussion below.
UPDATE Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Patchy fog has spread further east into north central ND and the
James River Valley where some clearing has occurred. Otherwise,
previous forecast was in good shape. Updates have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Dry and warmer weather mixed with fog and low stratus will highlight
the short term forecast.
Fog will be the forecast challenge in the southwest for much of
Sunday Morning. The 07Z RAP and HRRR are indicating patchy dense fog
primarily in the southwest.
For the rest of the day, low stratus in place over western and
central areas is expected to linger for much of the day. Western
areas should see an erosion in the stratus layer by early afternoon;
agreed upon well within the 07Z HiRes models.
Surface high pressure will continue an eastward scoot, as a leading
warm front begins to push into the southwest, ahead of the next
surface low. Highs around eight degrees above average are forecast
for southwestern areas; while the rest of the CWA will be near
average.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
The week will start with widespread chances for rain and strong
winds on Monday. Otherwise, above average temperatures and dry
weather highlights the long term forecast.
Surface low pressure coupled with mid/upper level troughing is
projected to move northeastward across the state through Monday.
Widespread chances for rain are favorable though the highest
probability will be north. Strong westerly winds will accompany the
surface low across central and southern areas. Winds in the
southwest will be near wind advisory, a headline may be warranted.
For the rest of the long term, the 00Z global suites are projecting
progressive flow aloft, as a series of mid/upper level troughs and
ridges propagate across North Dakota. This pattern favors continued
above normal temperatures through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 841 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Prolonged the coverage of stratus across western and central
North Dakota this morning and into the afternoon with amendments
issued at 1302 UTC. IFR ceilings are expected across southwest
North Dakota this morning, with MVFR ceilings elsewhere. Patchy
IFR fog is also possible across the area this morning. Although
coverage is a bit sporadic. Additional fog and stratus may be
possible again tonight, especially across western North Dakota.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
855 AM MDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 AM MDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Plan on canceling the dense fog advisory soon. Web cameras and
observations indicate visibility is improving across the area.
Satellite imagery showing a good amount of moisture at upper level
of the atmosphere. So expected high clouds to continue through
the day and adjusted cloud cover up a little.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Surge of cooler air into northeastern Colorado last evening was
stronger than expected, but is washing out now as winds on the
plains go southeast. This in turn has created a Denver cyclone
circulation with north winds developing near the foothills into
the city of Denver. There are still south to southwest winds on
the south side of the city. A shallow fog bank has formed across
most of the plains. In some areas the cloud is not solidly on the
ground and visibilities are not that bad, but many areas are
around a quarter mile or less, especially on little ridges like
the areas around DIA, Akron, and the higher ground north of Ault
and Fort Collins. Despite the high clouds overhead, this will
probably get a little worse before sunrise. HRRR is now holding
this pool of colder air in place all day with south winds staying
south of about I-76 and temperatures 10 degrees colder further
north. While this seems a bit overdone, the trend of a stronger
cold pool is undeniable so I have trended the forecast that way
with a little slower clearing, slower warming this morning, and
slightly cooler highs this afternoon in most places. The high
cloud cover is also more than expected and should linger, which
may hold the temperatures back a bit as well.
Mountain winds are the other issue. With some warm advection aloft
and the flow increasing, there is a window for some wave
amplification through midday. With marginal speeds, think this
will involve gusts to 50 mph over the higher slopes of the Front
Range. There may be a bit of a decrease in the flow, or at least
the wave conditions fading, this afternoon. Then speeds increase
again ahead of the next wave. No profile for wave amplification
but with 60 knots as low as 600 mb, we should see stronger winds
over the higher ridges and higher east slopes of the Front Range
late tonight, with gusts in the 40-60 mph range expected. Of
course higher speeds are possible in the windiest above timberline
areas. Outside of those spots, it does not appear to be much of a
high wind threat. There could be a little bit of moisture for some
light showers in the northern mountains late tonight, so we will
maintain some low PoPs for that. Still very warm for this time of
year, with the snow level around timberline.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM MDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Seventy to 90 knot southwesterly flow aloft is progged over the
CWA Monday into Tuesday evening. This flow decreases overnight
Tuesday as a weakening upper trough`s axis moves over the western
border of Colorado at 12z Wednesday morning. The synoptic scale
energy on the QG Omega fields is benign then weak upward Tuesday
afternoon and evening. The boundary layer flow will be dominated
by southerly and southwesterly downsloping winds Monday. Models
show a cold front and some upslope behind it late Monday afternoon
and evening. By later Monday night, normal diurnal drainage wind
patterns should prevail. There is another weak surge progged into
the CWA Tuesday evening. Concerning moisture, there is some
shallow low level moisture in the mountains Monday through Tuesday
night, with just some upper level moisture around here and there
over the rest of the forecast area. There is a bit of measurable
precipitation on the QPF fields for the mountains Monday into
early Monday evening, then a bit more Tuesday and Tuesday night.
It is pretty minor. Will keep "chance"s and "slight chance"s going
in the mountains with nothing significant. Temperatures will cool
off a bit on Tuesday, but will still be above normal. The snow
level will be above 9,000 feet Monday and bit lower on Tuesday.
For temperatures, Monday`s highs will be close to today`s
readings. Tuesday`s highs will cool off 1-4 C from Monday`s highs.
For the later days, Wednesday through Saturday, a weak upper
trough is progged to push across the CWA Wednesday. After that, an
upper ridge is over the CWA into the weekend. The ECMWF even has a
5900 meter 500 mb High over the northeastern corner of Colorado
Friday morning at 12Z. After some minor pops Wednesday morning
early, it will be quite dry into the weekend. Temperatures will
stay above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 855 AM MDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Fog is starting to lift at KDEN. RVRs are now 1400 to 6500 feet
now and expect them to continue to improve. By 16z, expect
visibility to be greater than a mile. By 17z, the fog and low
clouds should be mostly gone.
A Denver cyclone is forecasted to form after 18z. There is a
chance a boundary could stall across KDEN this afternoon. Other
than this, no other weather impacts are expected across the
Denver area through tonight.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ038>040-
042>051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Meier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
726 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.AVIATION...
Lapse rates that have been supportive of upstream thunder will be
transitioning across the southern portion of the Detroit area just
prior to TAF issuance time. By 12z...pockets of instability
containing thunder are expected to move south and east of the area.
Light rain will end from north to south between 13z and 17z today.
North winds filling in behind will bring lake enhancement off of
Lake huron to the diurnal cu field and should ensure MVFR to perhaps
low VFR particularly at PTK and in the Detroit area which will be
immediately downstream. Loss of heating and building high pressure
this evening will force clouds to scatter.
For DTW...Northeast wind will back to northerly and will likely
remain near noise abatement thresholds until high pressure arrives
tonight and wind diminishes. Cigs will remain below 5kft for most or
all of the day as well.
//DTW Threshold Probabilities...
* High for cigs aob 5kft.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
DISCUSSION...
There are two active layers to the sloped frontal boundary that is
in place over the western and central Great Lakes this morning. The
first is over Northern Lower Michigan, the 800-750 mb layer of the
front where numerous to categorical showers have been ongoing for a
good portion of the night. The second active layer, 900-800 mb, is
over portions of northern IL eastward into far southern MI. Been
seeing some increase the past couple of hours in smaller accas
convective elements over MI, while a line of elevated thunderstorms
has initiated north of Chicago out into southern Lake Michigan.
This morning. NWP and observations support more of the recent ECMWF
solution that supports a more unified height fall response over
sections of southeastern Michigan between 12-18Z. The geopotential
height falls will be driven by favorable synoptic scale ascent that
will occur in response to a tandem of shortwaves turning to a
negative tilt and favorable left exit region jet dynamics. The main
thing is with this forcing is that it will be overhead very, very
briefly. However, given the favorable active layer to the baroclinic
zone in place over far southern lower Michigan, the feeling is that
likely to categorical rain shield will fill in over southeastern
Michigan between 10-16Z from nw to se in the cwa. Not alot of
support for significant QPF, perhaps as much as a .10 to .25 inch.
The thunderstorm activity upstream has overachieved from a lightning
obs perspective. SPC RAP based mesoanalysis suggests as much as 250
J/KG MUCAPE exists to the south of the active 900-800mb layer.
Forecast soundings do in fact show good enough lapse rates between
800-300mb to support a small amount of MUCAPE through daybreak. Will
continue the mention for a thunderstorm through 12Z with some slight
increase in system relative isentropic ascent in the 09-12Z time
window. No severe weather.
With the surface cold front boundary south of Lower Michigan already
by 12Z looking at a cool day with relatively light northerly flow in
place. Clouds will make it difficult for temperatures to respond,
pushing lower 50s in many areas this afternoon.
Strong, stable anticyclone tonight will allow temperatures to drop
into the middle to lower 30s areawide.
Residual flow off the retreating surface anticyclone will make it
difficult for the surface to rebound much on Monday. Highs will
remain stuck in the lower 50s. For those with outside interests
Monday evening, dry, increasing clouds, insignificant southeasterly
wind direction, and temperatures dropping into the upper 40s by 7 pm
EDT.
Warm advection will kick into high gear late Monday night and
Tuesday as a deep midlevel trough advances into the Great Plains.
There are some serious questions with exactly how high of quality
the moisture will be with this system locally. Models are trying to
spit out some QPF for Tuesday morning which at first glance would
appear to be some elevated moisture return. However, the moisture is
all locked in the lower troposphere under what appears to be very
active midlevel subsidence. So the question then becomes how much
are the models overdoing this low level moisture. Actually think the
offered guidance is a good position to be in which is dry for the
Detroit Metro area. Otherwise, the big picture is not a good one for
dynamic ascent for precipitation with depictions of veered out flow
and anticyclonic flow trajectories aloft for all of southeastern
Michigan. In fact, this anticyclonic flow appears to be so strong
that it will stall out a frontal boundary to the north of
southeastern Michigan. Tuesday could get really warm.
MARINE...
Moderate north to northwest winds will persist through today before
a brief reprieve tonight into Monday as high pressure settles over
the waters. Fresh to strong southerly flow will then ramp up late
Monday into Monday night in advance of the next system. Stable
southerly flow will help keep wind gusts contained...but gusts to
near-gales are still possible late Monday night. Light wind for
midweek.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......JVC
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
649 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.UPDATE...
Satellite and surface observations indicate that very low stratus
and fog is beginning to fill in across our southern counties.
College Station recently dropped to 1/4 SM in fog. As a result,
we`ve gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory for areas
southeast of a line from roughly Athens to Mexia to Marlin to
Rockdale until 11 AM. We`ll continue to monitor observations and,
if necessary, add counties to the advisory as warranted. Finally,
expanded the patchy fog wording a bit farther northeastward, into
Kaufman, Rains, and Van Zandt Counties through the late-morning.
Carlaw
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016/
/12Z TAFS/
Similar to Saturday morning, challenges will occur at Waco
Regional this morning with regard to cigs/vsbys likely to be in
the IFR category. DFW Metro airports should remain VFR through
the next 30 hours.
Areas of stratus and fog continue developing and expanding north
from the Texas Hill Country to Southeast Texas and the Golden
Triangle area of the far upper Texas Coast. Radar profilers across
this area continue to indicate southerly flow at 925mb 10 to 20
knots. Latest NAM, LAPS, and RAP forecast bring this area up to a
Killeen-Hillsboro-Athens line through mid-late morning. Will
prevail IFR at Waco Regional by 8 a.m. CDT and have it maintain
through late morning, before warming and mixing of the boundary
layer brings VFR conditions back to Central Texas.
Thanks to a more veered WSW 925mb flow over DFW at 25 knots,
expect stratus to remain south of I-20, though areas from
Mesquite east through Canton may see some brief IFR cigs. Have
maintained VFR at DFW airports throughout the forecast with this
in mind.
Otherwise, S winds 10 kts or less are expected areawide today.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016/
The primary weather concern for the rest of the morning will be
the development of very low stratus and visibility reductions in
fog across our southeastern counties. Latest 11-3.9 micron
satellite imagery reveals the first wisps of stratus developing
just north of the Houston Metro, and surface observations show
visibilities dropping across the Mid Texas Coast. Anticipate low
clouds to continue to develop through sunrise and surge
northeastward on steadily veering 20-30 kt 1 kft flow. Point
soundings show winds immediately above the cooling nocturnal
boundary layer remaining in the 12 to 16 kt range, which would
tend to keep things a bit more mixed and in the form of a low
stratus deck. However, with several sites Saturday morning
reporting 1/4 SM fog and a similar scenario this morning, areas
of dense fog appear possible with the greatest risk roughly south
of an Athens to Killeen line. We`ll monitor trends for a possible
Dense Fog Advisory this morning.
Farther upstream, satellite, surface observations, and regional
radars show a (dry) cold front making quick progress towards the
southeast across central Oklahoma early this morning. This front
currently stretches from just southeast of Wichita, towards
Oklahoma City, and westward into the Texas Panhandle near
Amarillo. This front may actually manage to squeeze into Montague
County this afternoon, but not much farther. As winds out ahead of
this feature veer towards the southwest and we pick up a bit more
of a downsloping component, temperatures should rocket into the
upper 80s to near 90 in spots today. The record high at DFW of 90
(1951) would appear to be in jeopardy today. Low clouds through
mid-morning may keep Waco just shy of their 90-degree record
(also set in 1951). October`s headed out the door, but we`re
solidly on our way to setting a new warmest monthly record for the
month at DFW. See the climate section below for more information.
Another round of patchy fog looks possible tonight and into
Monday morning with another brief surge of near-surface moisture.
Breezy south winds will develop Monday afternoon in response to a
tightening surface pressure gradient. By Tuesday, high pressure
will move into the southeastern CONUS, which will really open us
up to a deep tap of Gulf moisture. As dewpoints surge northward,
isolated storms appear possible mainly southeast of a Sulphur
Springs to Goldthwaite line Tuesday afternoon. These chances will
then spread across most of the forecast area overnight.
For Wednesday, have continued to advertise 30-40 percent PoPs
area-wide, with the highest values confined to our southern
counties amidst the higher quality moisture.
On Thursday, there is now decent model agreement (save for some
timing differences) that a cold front will approach from the
northwest and move through at least portions of the CWA sometime
Thursday afternoon or evening. As a result, I`ve re-oriented PoPs
somewhat Thursday night to indicate the highest chances (30%)
across our far southwestern counties. Depending on the morphology
of this front, portions of the forecast area could temporarily dry
out Friday into Saturday. That said, I still don`t have a clear
picture of what the large-scale pattern will look like during this
timeframe, with run-to-run inconsistencies plaguing this portion
of the forecast. Continue to expect changes to this portion of the
forecast this week.
Carlaw
&&
.CLIMATE...
The average temperature (which is an average of the daily high and
low) at DFW airport is currently 74.1 degrees F. Running out the
remainder of the month with the official forecast highs yields an
average monthly temperature of 74.3 degrees F, which would break
the previous record of 73.5 degrees F set back in 1963. Waco`s
average monthly temperature of 73.3 degrees F is currently in
sixth place, behind 1947, 1963, 1931, 2004, and 1934.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 65 88 67 82 / 0 0 0 5 10
Waco 88 59 86 66 83 / 5 0 5 5 20
Paris 86 61 86 61 83 / 0 0 0 5 10
Denton 88 60 86 63 82 / 0 0 0 5 10
McKinney 88 62 85 64 82 / 0 0 0 5 10
Dallas 90 65 88 68 83 / 0 0 0 5 10
Terrell 88 61 86 63 82 / 0 0 5 5 20
Corsicana 88 60 86 64 83 / 5 0 5 5 20
Temple 87 59 86 65 82 / 5 0 10 5 30
Mineral Wells 88 59 87 61 83 / 0 0 0 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for TXZ147-148-
160>162-174-175.
&&
$$
05/90
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
07z/2am surface map shows cold front sinking into north-central
Illinois...extending from near Pontiac to just south of Galesburg.
Most of the KILX CWA remains south of the boundary with current
temps still in the middle 60s. Meanwhile further north behind the
front, temps have dropped into the lower to middle 50s across
northern Illinois. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed north of the front in advance of a short-wave
trough...mainly along and north of the I-80 corridor. A few showers
may graze the far northern CWA early this morning: however, it
appears the bulk of the precip will remain to the north. HRRR
continues to suggest a period of patchy fog along the front where
winds are nearly calm and dewpoints are pooling in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees. Have seen some evidence of this at both KIKK and
KPNT over the past couple of hours, so have included fog mention as
far south as I-72 for a few hours this morning. The front will
eventually settle southward into the Ohio River Valley later today,
resulting in cool northeast winds across the entire area. High
temperatures will be a bit tricky, depending on exact timing of
front and associated wind shift. Highs will remain in the upper 50s
across the far north where winds are already from the
northeast...while readings will climb into the middle 70s further
south along/south of the I-70 corridor where partial sunshine and
southwesterly winds will persist the longest.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
High pressure will shift across the region on Monday, allowing winds
to veer from northeasterly to southeasterly. The increasing
southerly flow combined with partial afternoon sunshine will help
boost temperatures: however, limited mixing up to about 900mb will
temper the warming somewhat...with afternoon highs in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. Once the high moves further away and winds become
southwesterly, a big warm-up will take place by Tuesday. Thanks to
unseasonably high upper heights and deeper mixing, highs will reach
near record values in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Next frontal boundary is still slated to arrive across central
Illinois late Wednesday into Thursday. Airmass ahead of the front
will become very moist, with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s and
precipitable water values near climatological records for early
November of around 1.50 by 00z Thu. Given ample moisture, strong
convergence along the approaching boundary, and good upper support,
have bumped PoPs to likely across nearly the entire area Wednesday
night. Will also mention thunder as GFS MUCAPE values climb to
around 400J/kg...especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. Front
will quickly shift into the Ohio River Valley on Thursday, with
just a few lingering rain showers across east-central and
southeast Illinois during the morning. Despite FROPA, airmass
behind boundary will be of Pacific origin and will therefore
remain on the mild side. High temperatures for Thursday through
Saturday will drop into the middle to upper 60s, which is still
5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
A cold front has already pushed through PIA and BMI this morning
and will continue south, moving through SPI/DEC/CMI around 13-14z.
As this occurs, a brief period of IFR conditions will effect each
site, with cigs below 1kft and vis below 5sm. Since this should be
brief will just have it as a TEMPO group at all sites. Predominate
conditions should be lower MVFR with cigs around 1.5kft and
unrestricted vis. These MVFR conditions will last til around
17-18z at PIA and BMI, and then around 20z at the other three
sites, with cigs rising to around 2.5kft. As high pressure builds
into the region with northeast winds, drier air should advect in
and bring a clearing or scattering out of the clouds at all sites.
Expecting clouds to scatter out late afternoon in the east and
then early evening in the west, and then clear out at all sites
later in the evening. Winds will be north-northeast behind the
front and then become more northeasterly this afternoon. This
evening, winds will become easterly. Just behind the front, winds
will be breezy some with gusts as high as 20-22kts, but then taper
later this morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
655 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Much cooler air compared to yesterday will filter into the area
behind a cold front dropping through the Ohio Valley. A band of showers
and isolated thunderstorms will push through the area this
morning with skies slowly clearing this afternoon. High
temperatures will range from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s
south. High pressure will in tonight with chilly low temperatures
in the 30s expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Cold front continues to sag swd across the area this morning and
should clear far srn counties by daybreak. Coupled upper jet
induced frontal scale circulation well underway from ern WI ewd
through nrn lower MI and expected to shift se into nrn OH after
daybreak. Upstream 00Z soundings fairly dry but narrow ribbon of
moisture seen in the H85mb layer and currently bubbling from ne IA
through srn WI. Near term highres guidance has for all intent and
purposes lost what little signal it had earlier and will follow
recent HRRR augmented through extrapolation of current upstream
echoes. Otherwise vigorous low level cold advection this morning
will temper out this aftn timed with some indicated
clearing...namely w/nw where some diurnal rebound should be
realized.
Sfc ridge will quickly follow ewd through the Lakes tonight.
Clear/clearing skies within renewed low level drying will result in
chilly temps especially with n/ne extent and could see some
potential freezing low temps in outlying cold drainage areas.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Strong thermal moderation this period after Monday as strong warm
advection/thermal ridging develops ewd of next upstream disturbance
lifting newd out of the nrn Rockies. Given good consensus
indications of intense low level ridge...deep mixing and potential
spoiler high cloud plume holding north should see near record high
temps over srn areas. However Wed records likely safe as cloud
debris limits mixing heights within more subdued thermal ridge.
Rain chcs tied to tail end of ewd progressing sw disturbance through
James Bay remain quite uncertain with vastly differing spectral
based solutions aloft...namely with potential secondary sys
amplifying within base of trough late Wed. Trending stronger
solutions aloft would bring much better dynamical forcing south into
the OH river valley and maximize moisture transport/flux into
incoming frontal zone. Still not ready to jump headlong into this
scenario given evolution of current short term sys. Will temper an
otherwise optimistic blend.
Aside from that shallow cold advection follows on Thu after which
renewed thermal ridging builds back into the wrn Lakes next weekend.
Regardless steadfast above normal temps to persist.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Approaching short wave across the southern Great Lakes and post-
frontal low/mid level fgen forcing will support continued eastward
progression of rain showers across northern Indiana this morning.
Some weak elevated instability persists across northern Indiana
but cloud top trends have been on the warming side past hour and
would suspect any thunder over next hour or two will be very brief
and isolated. With stronger fgen forcing likely drifting into
northern Ohio this morning, some question as to southern extent of
better rain shower coverage through late morning, and will confine
mention at KFWA to tempo. Have had some patches of IFR cigs/vsbys
across northern Indiana behind the surface front and IFR
conditions will likely continue to be a threat until the 14-15Z
timeframe at KFWA. Otherwise, improvement to cigs above fuel
alternate levels is expected by mid to late morning, and to VFR
shortly thereafter. North winds of around 10 knots are expected
behind the front today, diminishing to light northeast tonight as
surface high settles into the area.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Marsili
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Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
709 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Cold front over northern Missouri into west central Illinois will
drift south today. By 18Z the front should be along or just south
of the MO I-44/IL I-64 corridor, and then down into far southeast
Missouri by 00Z Monday. There is some rain up over north central
Illinois, but it looks like the best dynamical support for precip
will stay north of the CWFA. The ESRL and operational HRRR models
do break out what looks like isolated sprinkles later in the day,
but every other model is dry so have kept the forecast dry today.
Temperatures will be tricky due to the cold advection behind the
front. Think southeast Missouri will get into the upper 70s to near
80, while northeast Missouri and west central Illinois will struggle
to get into the mid 60s. The high behind the front will move east-
southeast across the Great Lakes tonight. Wind will turn from the
northeast to the southeast by 12Z. Since we`ll be on the periphery
of the high, it looks like the wind won`t drop off as much as it
otherwise would. Lows Monday morning will be cooler than this
morning`s readings, but without good radiational cooling conditions
it looks like lows will only dip into the 50s over most of the area.
Carney
.LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Unseaonably warm weather can be expected on Monday as a weak warm
front lifts north-northeastward through our area with
southerly/southwesterly surface/low level winds and upper level
ridging over our region. The only limiting factor for near record
highs on Monday will be low level cloudiness expected during the
morning, but this should clear out in the afternoon as the warm
front lifts north-northeast of our forecast area. A shortwave
moving eastward through the northern Plains and Great Lakes regions
Monday night and Tuesday will send a cold front southward, but it
appears it will stay just north of our forecast area along with any
precipitation or colder air associated with it. Tuesday will likely
be even warmer than Monday with continued southerly/southwesterly
surface/low level winds. Showers and a few storms can be expected
on Wednesday, especially across northeast and central MO and west
central IL as a positively tilted upper level trough and associated
cold front approaches with a southwesterly low level jet bringing
increasing low level temperature and moisture advection into our
area. The threat for rain will shift southeastward through our area
Wednesday night and Thursday morning due to strong upper level
divergence ahead of the upper level trough and as the cold front
moves southeastward through our forecast area. The models have
become more consistent and it appears that the rain will shift
southeast of the forecast area by Thursday afternoon. Cooler
temperatures are expected Thursday and Thursday night due to cold
air advection behind the cold front with northwesterly upper level
flow behind the upper level trough. The weather looks dry into the
weekend as a surface ridge moves slowly southeastward through the
region with an upper level ridge shifting slowly eastward into the
central US. The temperatures from Thursday through Saturday will be
closer to seasonal normals.
GKS
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Cold front stretching from KUIN to KDMO will continue moving
southeast today. VFR conditions will prevail ahead of the front,
while ceilings will fall rapidly to 1000-2000 ft behind the front.
There is also a small area of IFR with cigs between 600-1000ft
over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Should see
some improvement in ceilings to higher end MVFR this afternoon,
though VFR seems doubtful over most of the area.
Forecast for tonight is low confidence. Ceilings extend all the
way into Canada through the northern Plains and upper Mississippi
Valley, yet guidance wants to improve and scatter this
evening/overnight. Am improving ceilings this evening to low end
VFR...but this may be too optomistic.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
MVFR ceilings over central and northeast Missouri should
overspread the terminal late this morning. Kept ceilings above
1900 feet for Lambert today, but there is a chance
ceiling heights could be lower. Most guidance improves ceilings
this afternoon, though this is not a very high confidence
forecast.
Carney
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
The warm weather will continue across southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois today, with very warm temperatures expected
areawide Monday and Tuesday. Some records may be threatened mainly
on Tuesday when the warmest temperatures are forecast.
STL COU UIN
Sun10/3090/195089/195090/1950
Mon10/3188/196887/195088/1950
Tue 11/1 86/1937 84/1938 83/1938
KD/PW/GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1025 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.UPDATE...
Made adjustments to hourly temperatures and sky cover.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The challenge today is the stratus and the affects on
temperatures. The HRRR would suggest that the stratus does not
spread much farther south than the National Weather Center today
before beginning to erode almost everywhere through the afternoon.
The NAM erodes the western Oklahoma stratus, but keeps a band
across north central and central Oklahoma down toward Hobart and
Mangum. The sun angle is getting low enough this time of year
where the stratus can be rather persistent, so will not clear
things out as much as the HRRR. That being said, with some
clearing expected this afternoon, we still may be able to make the
currently forecast high temperatures... although it may take
longer to get there. So with this morning update, have adjusted
sky cover and hourly temperatures , but will keep the forecast
highs for now. If stratus looks like it will persist longer, will
make additional adjustments early this afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.
AVIATION...
Forecasting MVFR ceilings north of KFDR-KLAW-KOUN remains
challenging.
Believe MVFR ceilings will move south and overspread locations
north of KFDR-KLAW-KOUN by 16 UTC. These ceilings may briefly be
IFR in a few locations. Current forecast has these ceilings
dissipating 17-21 UTC, though not sure if they will erode this
rapidly as these ceilings could linger well beyond 21 UTC,
especially near KPNC.
Surface winds have shifted to the north at all sites except KSPS
with the passage of a cold front. KSPS can expected a wind shift
to the north or northeast 14-17 UTC.
Surface winds will shift to the southeast at most sites sometime
after 22 UTC.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Forecasting temperatures today is the first challenge, then near
record warmth and elevated fire weather conditions on Monday are
the next concerns. Rain chances may return by the middle of the
week.
Today, lowered high temperatures several degrees in many locations.
A cold front will continue to push south today and possibly stall
somewhere near a Seymour Texas to Atoka line by 4 pm today according
to the latest HRRR, which is farther south than previously forecast.
Low stratus clouds 600-2000 ft AGL north of the front in Kansas
will continue to push south and affect at least areas north of
I-40 by 10 am this morning. These clouds may be difficult to erode
thanks to north to northeasterly winds combined with a low sun
angle. As a result, lowered highs several degrees to take a blend
of 00 UTC MAV/METMOS guidance anywhere north of the cold front.
The cooler 00 UTC METMOS highs in the lower 60s could verify
across parts of central and northern Oklahoma if low cloud cover
lingers all afternoon. Latest HRRR runs have been depicting the
low level cloud cover will erode this afternoon, but this may be
too fast. Highs will remain in the lower to mid 80s south of the
front in parts of western north Texas and far southern Oklahoma.
Tonight, the weak front will slowly lift north as a weak warm
front. Low level cloud cover may linger over northern Oklahoma.
There is an outside chance of fog formation nearly anywhere north
of the front, but did not mention due to low confidence of
occurrence. Model guidance lows appeared to be reasonable.
Monday will be partly to mostly sunny, breezy to windy, and
warmer with near record highs. Elevated fire weather will result,
especially in northwestern Oklahoma where surface winds will be
highest and lowest surface humidity are forecast. Guidance highs
in the 80s appeared to be reasonable.
Tuesday will remain warm and breezy, though cloud cover and low
level moisture will be on the increase.
Tuesday night through Saturday, warm weather will likely continue,
though much uncertainty remains whether or not it will be a wet or
dry pattern during this time frame. Latest models have not depicted
too much consistency with a mid/upper cut off low somewhere across
the southwest U.S. or Southern Plains. For now, kept rain chances
during this time frame, but confidence remains low.
MBS
CLIMATE...
Highs may not be too far from record highs on Monday. Here are
the records for Oklahoma City and Wichita Falls on Monday.
Oklahoma City
October 31...86 set in 1938
Wichita Falls
October 31...92 set in 1934
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 70 58 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 70 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 79 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 67 54 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 67 56 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 85 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
603 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Expansive area of low clouds across the region per latest
fog/stratus satellite imagery/sfc obs. Some small breaks to the east
under the influence of slightly drier northeast flow. That said, not
expecting the clouds to go anywhere as high pressure builds in
tonight and all models hold ample saturation under a low level
inversion. Going to need a cold front to sweep through late Monday
night to finally scour out the persistent stratus.
Tightening pressure gradient ahead of the front will make for a
rather windy, but mild day Monday. 20 to 25 mph sustained from the
south likely in the open and unsheltered areas - with higher gusts.
As for pcpn chances, time-height x-sections deepen the low level
saturation into Monday night - especially the NAM - with Bufkit
soundings showing a favorable drizzle setup. Pretty good isentropic
lift through the low saturation, along with some omega. Certainly
enough for patchy-areas of drizzle. The NAM is the most aggressive in
this stead though, with the GFS/EC holding off on light pcpn
production until the front has moved east - more across eastern WI.
Going to include small chances for now, and hold them east of the
Mississippi River.
The southern portion of the front lays up west-east across
IA/northern IL and will serve as the focus for more shower chances
late Tue through Wed. Decent frontogenetic response along the
boundary with the low level jet funneling moisture into it and some
upper level support from the right entrance region of a jet streak.
By wed night the front will start to interact with an approaching,
elongated 500mb shortwave, enhancing the pcpn threat. Mostly the
various models favor keeping the higher rain threat south of the
local area, but chances will extend across northeast IA/southwest
WI. The meager instability should hold south and don`t see much of a
thunder threat.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Light rain may linger into Wednesday night across the southern
portions of our local area as the upper-level shortwave and
surface/low-level frontal boundary depart to the east. Starting
Thursday, strong ridging builds across the north-central CONUS and
is the main weather feature through the weekend. Would not be
surprised to see a few sprinkles on Thursday as a 500 mb vorticity
streak passes through under the left exit region of a 250 mb jet
streak, but moisture is lacking. Our area stays under northwesterly
flow aloft until Sunday when the ridge axis shifts over the Upper
Mississippi Valley region. Temperatures look to remain fairly steady
for this period, with highs continuing to run around 10 degrees
above normal. Nights may be cooler, though, under the influence of
high pressure. This is especially true for Friday night when both
the GFS and ECMWF indicate calm winds and clear skies with surface
high pressure over northeast Iowa.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
The low clouds have cleared some across southwest Wisconsin into
northeast Iowa. As the surface ridge slides to the east, the
concern becomes whether this clearing will work back north on the
developing south flow on the back side of the high or fill back
in. The 30.21Z RAP has a good handle on this clearing right now
and suggest that it will fill back in before being able to work
north over either airport. Plan to stay with MVFR ceilings through
the night and through Monday as the clouds and moisture over
southern Iowa and Missouri will be brought back north to keep
skies cloudy. The gradient will tighten up Monday and there will
be just enough mixing to allow some gusts to approach 30 knots at
KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Hollan
AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
314 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south through the area today and tonight,
bringing a chance of showers. As high pressure travels east through
the Great Lakes Monday into Monday night, the old frontal boundary
will move back northeast as a warm front. Much above normal readings
will then return to the region once again into mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Surface cold front is currently pushing through the CWA and is
just past KDAY with a weak line of showers out ahead. Latest RAP
does have some instability out ahead of the front but it remains
paltry. Latest RAP and HRRR runs seem a bit under done given
latest radar trends but with the shortwave energy mostly heading
north and east of the area think that a weakening trend is likely
in the next couple of hours. Behind the surface cold front surface
high pressure will build into Michigan and work its way into
Ohio. This will allow for low temperatures in the mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
During the day Monday the upper level shortwave that was over the
area Sunday will be pushing off the east coast taking the surface
high pressure east with it. As this happens Monday the cold front
that was just south of the area will stall and wash out. As this
happens a warm front will slowly pull north as well. 850 mb
temperatures will hold around 10 degrees C with 1000/850 mb
thicknesses around 1355 m. Have gone ahead and trended high
temperatures closer to low level thicknesses compared to 850 mb
temperatures given the shallow frontal inversion.
Monday night into Tuesday mid-level ridging will build over the
southeastern United States and bulge into the area. 850 mb
temperatures will slowly rise to around 15 degrees C with 1000/
850 mb thicknesses approaching 1400 m across the south. These
numbers would support high temperatures around 80 degrees C on
Tuesday. This would be close to record territory for the beginning
of November.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level short wave energy dropping down across the western Great
Lakes will help push a cold front southeast through the Ohio Valley
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Ahead of this front, broad
southwesterly low level flow will lead to one last unseasonably warm
day On Wednesday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s. With
increasing moisture ahead of the front, showers will spread into our
northeast Wednesday night and then across the remainder of the area
Thursday morning. It looks to be a fairly fast moving front though,
so expect to see pcpn begin to taper off from the northwest fairly
quickly through the day on Thursday. The combination of clouds and
some developing CAA will lead to highs in the mid to upper 60s for
Thursday.
The upper level flow will then become more amplified through next
weekend as mid level ridging builds over the Central United States.
The models generally keep any energy dropping down in the northwest
flow off to our northeast through the weekend and this should keep
our area dry through the remainder of the period. Seasonable
temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday with highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions are deteriorating as a cold front nears TAF sites. MVFR
ceilings have developed at northern TAF sites and will spread
south to all sites and persist into the evening. Showers have
shown a decreasing trend so kept VCSH. CMH and LCK stand the best
chance for showers at the TAF site.
As winds shift to north behind the front, MVFR ceilings may break
up for a few hours early tonight. Moisture convergence near the
weakening front may result in ceilings forming as low as IFR
later tonight. MVFR could then persist through the end of the TAF
period.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Coniglio
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
254 PM CDT SUN OCT 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
High pressure will build back into the region to start the work
week. Overnight low temperatures chilly and down into the 40s, but
the cloud cover or lack thereof may cause some outliers in the
forecast. Model depiction of the low level moisture profiles is
problematic. HRRR has been introducing some drying from the NE, and
although there has been some erosion of the lowest ceiling over the
southern half of the state...the air to the NE is not necessarily
that dry. Behind the boundary after sunset, low level moisture that
has not yet mixed out may keep cloud cover through the overnight.
NAM and GFS time heights still keeping moisture in place near the
surface...and the RAP 925-850mb layer still plenty of moisture. The
struggle will be between general subsidence with high pressure
building...and the strength of any surface inversion that sets up
and the extend of the stratus development/movement overnight.
Keeping a rather conservative forecast in place with potential to
clear out the southern and eastern skies before the early morning
hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Strong southerly winds in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere
will bring unseasonably mild air into Illinois Monday night into
Tuesday. Model ave 850mb temps climb to 17-18C Monday night, and
remain in the 14-16C range on Tuesday. The warm air and clouds
Monday night will lead to very mild low temps in the lower 60s.
Clearing skies on Tuesday, especially south of Peoria, should lead
to near record high temps in the lower 80s south of I-74, with upper
70s north of I-74.
An approaching cold front from the NW will bring increasing clouds
into NW Illinois on Tuesday, but the frontal advance is expected to
stall before progressing farther south into central Illinois. The
front will then lift slightly north as a warm front Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning as low pressure advances up along the front
from the central Plains.
The central shortwave will remain north of Illinois as it progresses
into the Great Lakes Wed afternoon and evening. That will finally
drag a cold front through central IL Wed night into Thurs morning.
Forecast soundings continue to show precipitable water values around
1.5" ahead of the front in central IL, which are close to record
climatological levels for early November. The high moisture content
will help fuel MUCAPE values around 400 J/kg later Wed afternoon and
Wed evening. Any storms that develop could produce locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds, but severe wind/hail is not expected.
The 12z ECMWF has come more into line with the previous GFS and
Canadian solutions of advancing the cold front southeast of our
forecast area Thursday morning, taking rain showers quickly out of
our southeast counties shortly after sunrise. The cold front will
bring cooler conditions, but the air will have a more Pacific origin
instead of central Canada, which will keep daily highs and lows
above normal through next weekend. Highs each day look to remain the
mid to upper 60s, with lows in the mid 40s. No rainfall is expected
from later Thursday morning through next Sunday, under the influence
of stalled high surface pressure and upper level ridging.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Temporary breaks to VFR in the southern terminals is coming to an
end and MVFR cigs moving back in from the NW...as well as any
bigger breaks in the clouds developing cu anyway. Conflicting
info in the models with the persistence of the low clouds. HRRR
trying to advect dry air in from the east and erode clouds before
midnight. However, fcst soundings keeping some moisture in below
3000 ft and clouds throughout the day also preventing any mixing.
Hesitant to remove low clouds until tomorrow morning at least.
Some tempos to VFR may be necessary later this afternoon for SPI
and DEC at least, but keeping the forecast conservative.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...HJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
305 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
There is a broad ridge from the southern plains through the
central CONUS at mid day. Trough continues along the west coast
and strong Hudson Bay low. At the surface there is a weak cold
front from Long Island through the Texas panhandle then north as a
stationary boundary along the front range of the Rockies.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
The main forecast challenges over the near term (this evening and
tonight) are temperatures and wind. The upper ridge axis traverses
the forecast area this evening, transitioning H5 flow to
southwesterly by Monday morning. The morning/afternoon model suite
is in agreement with a potent low level jet developing tonight
across the High Plains. The RAP is the strongest at 850hpa with up
to 50 kts across the Sandhills, with the NAM and GFS showing at
least 40 kts. Forecast soundings show a deep inversion setting up,
which will help keep much of the wind elevated overnight. Some of it
will still mix to the surface, mainly across the Sandhills. Farther
south and in the Platte River Valley, the boundary layer will more
likely decouple. Made little change to min temps overnight as
previous forecast illustrates cooler lows across the south and near
50F across the north. With H85 temps as warm as 15C at 06z and 20C
at 12z, lows are reasonable, if not too cool depending on the amount
of mixing that will occur. Dew points won`t drop off too much
overnight and with a lightening south wind in the Platte River
Valley, some patchy ground fog cannot be ruled out entirely. At this
time, confidence is too low to introduce in the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Models coming together in the near term and mid and long term
solutions look reasonable. Have good confidence in the going
forecast. Still have fire weather watch going for western
Nebraska on Monday. See fire weather discussion below. Warm start
to Monday with most lows around 50 over western Nebraska.
Southwest to west winds will increase through the morning and mix
down warm dry air with most highs topping out around 80 aided by
down slope. This will put some records in reach. See climate
discussion below. Very dry air and cold front expected to move
through dry. Lows dropping to around freezing over the northwest
and around forty to the south and east. Upper trough flattens
ridge some but ridge rebounds slightly Tuesday with temperatures
in the 60s and 70s...still above normal. A Pacific airmass will
move east into the central CONUS and dominate the weather pattern
through the end of the week. Dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Low level stratus clouds continue to steadily erode as of
17z. Parts of north central Nebraska, including KVTN and KONL,
remain in sub-IFR cigs but conditions are expected to improve to
VFR at all sites by 20z. VFR conditions will then prevail across
all of western and north central Nebraska through Monday morning.
Strong southerly winds about 2000 feet AGL will create a concern
for LLWS overnight, and confidence is high enough to include it as
a prevailing condition in the latest TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Dry air will be in place over western Nebraska ahead of a cool
front dropping out of the Dakotas through the day. Strong
southwest to west winds will develop through the morning and
continue through the late afternoon over the Sandhills of Nebraska
north of Interstate 80. Minimum relative humidity is forecast to
be in the upper teens to lower 20 percent ranges. The combination
will result in near critical fire weather conditions. There is
still some question as to lower ranges of relative humidity and
have continued the watch.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Minor flood will continue on the North Platte river at North
Platte with increased flows from Lake McConaughy.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Record high for North Platte on October 31st is 82f 1950.
Record high for Valentine on October 31st is 85f set in 1990.
The North Platte record is attainable.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for NEZ204-206-208-209.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Power
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Martin
FIRE WEATHER...Power
HYDROLOGY...Power
CLIMATE...Power/Snively
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
557 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Updated to include 00Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
Low ceilings are holding tough across the region this afternoon
with surface high pressure overhead. Various CAMS keep the low
ceilings pretty much intact until Monday night when westerly flow
behind a cold front scours things out. Hence, a mainly cloudy
forecast prevails through the short term.
The high over us will depart to the east tonight as low pressure
moves into the western high plains. The low remains on track to
moves across the Dakotas and into northwest Minnesota on Monday.
Two things will occur. First, a warm front will lift northeast
across the FA during the day. This may cause a few showers across
central Minnesota and adjoining areas of western Wisconsin. The
30/00z NCAR ensemble forecast for probability matched amounts of
0.01 inches or more would favor areas north of our FA. This was
also the case today with the 30/12z ARW/NMM reflectivity
forecasts. Therefore, only some small pops touch our far northern
counties on Monday.
The second item of interest on Monday remains the increasing
southerly winds ahead of the low in the Dakotas. The track and
intensity of the low is very similar to this past Friday. NAM/GFS
profile data having been quite steady the past few runs on showing
southerly winds sustained in the 20-25 mph range across west
central and southern Minnesota for the late morning and afternoon
hours along with gusts from 30 to 35 mph.
Temperatures will continue above normal tonight and Monday. Opted
for highs near 70 in the far west where there is the best chance
for a little sunshine in the afternoon. Areas to the north and
east of the Twin Cities are still looking at highs from 55 to 60
which is some 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
The long term will feature a continuation of above normal
temperatures. The late week period and next weekend look really
nice as upper level ridging builds over the center of the country.
Highs from Tuesday through Sunday are forecast to be a few degrees
either side of 60. This may be too low as we head into the end of
the week and weekend as H85 temperatures climb into the +12 to +14
deg C range along with low level/surface winds from the southwest.
There is plenty of time to inch up highs in the days ahead if the
pattern holds. Bias corrected data would say add another 3
degrees on while the ECMWF and GFS would argue another 5 to 10
degrees. Certainly some 70`s would not be out of the question next
Sunday.
As for precipitation, we have a dry forecast indicated from
Tuesday through Sunday. If it were to rain a small amount
(sprinkles), it would be on Wednesday as a short wave passes
across the Upper Mississippi Valley. However, the better forcing
and deep layer moisture has pushed a little to the east and south
of the forecast area with better chances for rain across IA and
far southern WI.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016
We never suceeded in scouring out the low level moisture and MVFR
ceilings today, and with the surface high shifting east and warm
advection moving in later tonight and Monday the inversion looks
to remain in place for a while. This means we`ll likely keep MVFR
ceilings around for most of the period, with perhaps a few breaks
late tonight/early Monday and again late Monday afternoon/evening.
However, will maintain a fairly pessimistic outlook at this point
given persistence and upstream observations along with moist low
levels in RAP and NAM forecast profiles.
KMSP...Main uncertainty is if/when we`ll see breaks in the low
ceilings. Right now don`t have sufficient confidence to break
things up until the tail end of the forecast, but it`s possible we
could see some thinning/breaks for a time late tonight/early
Monday morning. In addition, some sprinkles/drizzle could occur
later Monday afternoon, but confidence is also too low to include
a specific mention of that at this point.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Monday overnight...VFR. West wind 10 to 15 kt.
Tuesday...VFR. West wind 5 to 15 kt becoming South late.
Tuesday night...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.
Wednesday and Wednesday night...VFR. Light and variable wind
becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt.
Thursday and Thursday night...VFR. West wind less than 10 kt
becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...