Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/29/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1020 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and warm conditions will continue over the weekend into next
week. A weak dry front moving through late Sunday/early Monday
will reinforce dry conditions early to mid next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will build into the forecast area from the north
behind the diffuse front tonight. It will be dry and satellite
trends support mostly clear skies. Nocturnal cooling and light
wind should help support fog during the early morning hours but
with little low-level moisture the fog should be limited. Expect
patchy fog mainly near bodies of water. The temperature forecast
is on track. Lows should be in the lower and middle 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and mild weather continues over the weekend with surface high
pressure centered over the forecast area Saturday then shifting
offshore by Sunday allowing a southerly flow to develop over the
region. An upper-level ridge will move over the area Saturday
then the 500 mb flow flattens Sunday in advance of an approaching
shortwave trough which will pass by to our north off the Mid-
Atlantic coast Sunday evening allowing a weak backdoor front to
push into the region. Moisture again will be limited with this
front and no precipitation is expected.
High temperatures will continue to be some 10-15 degrees above
normal this period with max temperatures in the mid to possibly
upper 80s and approach record highs. Low temperatures will also
remain mild in the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain entrenched over the region
through mid week while a building upper ridge over the
southeastern states will ensure continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the 80s and
lows in the 50s.
Late in the forecast period the medium-range models show the
upper ridge over the southeastern states retrograding westward
allowing for an amplified upper trough to dig down the east coast
but there are some differences in timing between the latest GFS
and previous ECWMF leading to low confidence in possibility of
precipitation at this point. Both models hinting at a closed upper
low developing over the Southeast Friday. Latest MEX guidance
showing chance pops for late Friday. Given current uncertainties,
for now will lean towards a low pop for Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak dry cold front will continue pushing south through the area
tonight with dry high pressure returning for Saturday. Mostly
clear skies and light/calm winds are expected at the terminals
through the overnight period. The HRRR shows LIFR conditions
developing in the eastern portion of the forecast area towards
daybreak Saturday morning which would affect the OGB terminal. The
local radiation fog tool which incorporates the crossover
temperature shows MVFR fog at CAE/CUB and LIFR at OGB and AGS
toward daybreak. This appears reasonable so have continued with
restrictions at all of the terminals between 11 and 13Z. Expect
rapid improvement by 13Z with diurnal heating/mixing.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Late night/early morning fog possible.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures 10/28-10/31
10/28 10/29 10/30 10/31
CAE 90/1984 86/1919 88/1984 88/1950
AGS 89/1984 85/1996 90/1984 89/1961
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
918 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...Easterly winds have pushed in higher moisture over
the coastal plains with dewpoints in the mid 60s for the inland
coastal plains to near 70 along the coast. Raised minimum temps
slightly for the coastal plains tonight. Scenario still favorable
for fog over inland areas and possibly dense at times. Extended
fog into the Laredo area for early Saturday morning. Latest HRRR
and Tech WRF show another influx of higher moisture into the
Coastal Bend in the morning. Adequately steep low level lapse
rates should lead to isolated showers for the coastal counties in
the morning and a little farther inland into the early afternoon.
Long period swells at the offshore buoys will continue with the
persistent easterly flow. High risk of rip currents will continue
through Saturday and likely on through the weekend into early next
week. Tides are running about a foot above expected. This may
cause problems around the time of the next major high tide
Saturday afternoon.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 639 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/
DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 00Z TAFs.
AVIATION...Isolated showers quickly diminished late this
afternoon. But left over mid level clouds will linger for a few
hours over the inland Coastal Bend. VFR conditions will persist
through the evening hours. Higher boundary layer moisture has
moved into the inland coastal plains with dewpoint temperatures
in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will become light late this evening
and expect fog formation will occur sooner than last night. Fog
will form along ALI-BEA-VCT line around 07Z with MVFR vsbys
initially. But expect vsbys will deteriorate to LIFR in dense fog
by 09Z and continue until 13-14Z. Fog could reach CRP area but
will only show TEMPO for MVFR vsbys around daybreak. Latest HRRR
shows the fog could reach LRD area by 11-12Z and linger through
15-16Z. Confidence not high that this will occur and indicated
MVFR vsbys/ceilings with possibility of IFR from 12-15Z. The
fog is expected to dissipate by 16Z with lingering MVFR ceilings
over the coastal plains. Another arrival of moisture from the Gulf
along with adequate low level lapse rates will provide a favorable
environment for isolated showers along the coast in the morning
again. Should be similar to today with convection waning by mid
afternoon over inland areas. VFR conditions should be prevalent
for the afternoon on Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 67 87 67 88 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
Victoria 61 88 62 87 63 / 10 20 10 10 10
Laredo 66 89 66 89 67 / 10 10 10 0 10
Alice 63 88 63 89 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
Rockport 71 85 71 85 71 / 10 20 10 10 10
Cotulla 63 89 63 90 64 / 10 10 10 0 10
Kingsville 63 88 63 89 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
Navy Corpus 72 85 73 85 72 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening For the following
zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.
GM...None.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1120 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and milder than normal weather can be expected into Saturday
as high pressure builds across the area. A cold front will bring
a chance of showers to the northern mountains later Saturday into
the overnight, and to the rest of the area on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Other than some wispy high clouds, tonight will be mainly clear
with light winds under high pressure. Lows in the 30s to around 40
will be near to slightly above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mild weather will return on Saturday with 850 mb temperatures
forecast to rise back into the +10 to +13C range - allowing
surface temperatures to climb into the 60s with L70s in the
south. The next front approaching from the north may trigger a few
showers over the northern mountains late in the day.
The front will stall for a short time as it enters PA as a sfc
wave forms along the front back in the midwest. The upper short
wave trough sliding straight east over the area will help to shove
the front slightly to the south Sat Night. But the front won`t
pass through most of the CWA until late in the day Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The start of the long term period will feature a progressive and
relatively weak upper shortwave and associated sfc cold front that
will move through the region mainly during the daylight hours
on Sunday...exiting the southern tier counties of the state Sunday
evening.
A brief cool down will occur monday (under NW flow aloft with a
1026mb sfc high sliding by across upstate NY and SERN canada) with
perhaps a few morning light showers or flurries across the mtns NE
of KIPT thanks to shallow moisture streaming SE from Lake Ontario
and zero C wet bulb temps within 1 kft agl.
Warmer air floods into the region from the west later Monday night
into the midweek period with generally nothing more than periods
of mid/high-level clouds and maybe a few light showers brushing
the nrn tier of the state Tuesday as a flat shortwave aloft races
ENE across the Lower Great Lakes region.
Disjointed...nrn and southern stream waves moving through the Mid
Miss Valley and Lower Great Lakes regions Thursday/Thursday night
could bring a few showers to the region. Prior to this later week
cfropa...high temps Wed and Thursday should surge well into the
60s and lower 70s in many locations Wednesday. Temps could be
warmer than currently forecast Thursday in the SE zones if timing
on the cfropa is a bit slower.
The upper level ridge across the eastern U.S. during the early to
mid week period will retrograde to the Rockies and High Plains
late in the week and next weekend...allowing the upper flow in
the east to veer to the NW...with one or two chunks of nrn stream
energy bringing a few cold fronts and isolated to scattered
showers.
Overall, the upcoming week will be milder than normal and
reasonably quiet with 7 day QPF likely under 0.25...and almost
definitely under 0.50 inch in all areas.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure over the region will provide fair weather tonight
across Central Pa with just enough of a breeze to preclude any
significant fog issues.
A cold front will approach from the north on Saturday, bringing
the chance of showers and MVFR cigs to KBFD during the PM hours.
Will also be expecting increasingly gusty WSW winds preceding the
front. A combination of bufkit soundings and HRRR output supports
gusts during the afternoon to near 30kts at KBFD, near 25kts at
KJST and generally under 20kts elsewhere.
Outlook...
Sun...Showers/low cigs possible, mainly KBFD/KJST.
Mon...AM fog possible, mainly KBFD.
Tue-Wed...No sig wx expected.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner
LONG TERM...Lambert
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
931 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure over the region will build east to the Mid
Atlantic by Saturday morning. A southerly flow will develop on the
back side of this retreating high offering a warming trend. A cold
front will push through the area on Sunday, bringing with it a
chance of showers. Slightly cooler air will briefly settle in
behind the front before another warm up for midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Cirrus continues to stream over the area this evening as surface
high pressure slides off to the east. Southerly winds have also
resumed across the area which will allow dewpoints to slowly nudge
up into Saturday afternoon. This also means that low temperatures
will likely occur in the next couple of hours before holding
steady or slightly rising before sunrise. When the sun comes up a
30 kt low level jet will begin to mix down allowing winds to be
gusty at times. The nocturnal inversion will also quickly mix out
allowing for a quick warm up. 850 mb temperatures will be on the
rise tomorrow towards 14 degrees C with 1000/850 mb thicknesses
nearing 1395 m. 850 mb temperatures also appear to be pooling
across our northern zones out ahead of the front which could make
our northern zones at or slightly above temperatures across the
south. Raised high temperatures slightly thanks to the above.
Prev Discussion ->
Surface high pressure over the region will push
off to the east, becoming centered over the Mid Atlantic by
Saturday morning. At the same time a mid level ridge will build
into the region. This will allow high level clouds to drift in
from the northwest. Lows will be milder tonight due to the clouds
and southerly winds that stay up at speeds of 5 to 10 mph. Lows
are expected to run 8 to 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the
upper 40s east to the lower/middle 50s west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Models solutions in general agreement with broad mid level
ridge extending north into the Ohio Valley Saturday with s/w
passing thru the Great Lakes Saturday night/Sunday, allowing a
surface cold front to drop south through the region. This setup will
bring an increase in the low level srly flow Saturday. In this WAA
pattern temperatures will warm up around 15 degrees above normal
with highs on Saturday ranging from the mid 70s north to near 80
south.
The cold front will slowly sag south into the southern Great Lakes
by Sunday morning and then south through ILN/s FA Sunday. Have
allowed for an increase in clouds and only a slight chance of a
shower far north toward sunrise Sunday. Mild lows expected in the
mid and upper 50s Saturday night.
As the front pushes into the area low level forcing and upper level
support will be maximized across the northern and central counties
during the day Sunday. Have high chance pops here mainly during the
afternoon. NAM appears overdone with instby and favor the marginal
instability that the GFS is showing. Given this marginal instby will
only mention slight chance of thunder.
High temperatures will show a good range from the lower 60s far nw
to the upper 60s far south.
The threat for precipitation will end quickly early Sunday evening.
Lows to range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s far south.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will push to the east on Monday and southerly flow
will develop. This will allow for several days of well above normal
temperatures. Wind gusts will pick up for Tuesday with some gusts
around 20 to 30 mph. Models have come into good agreement on
keeping a dry forecast on Wednesday and therefore kept Wednesday dry.
A cold front will move through on Thursday and bring rain showers to
the region and slightly cooler weather. Dry conditions are expected
to return by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure has already moved east of the area this evening
allowing a return of southerly winds. Overnight into Saturday
morning a strengthening LLJ will push east into the region
bringing 40 kt winds near 900 mb. This is shown on both the NAM
and GFS with the core of the jet stretching along and north of
Interstate 71. The jet will then begin to weaken as the sunrises
thanks to a weakening low level pressure gradient. The jet will
still be sustained around 30 kts though and with ample mixing
winds will be gusty at times Saturday afternoon. The GFS is
showing wind gusts up to 25 kts possible (via momentum transfer)
while the NAM is showing closer to 20 kts with the RAP even
slightly weaker. Given the lack of clouds have leaned towards a
blend of the GFS/NAM solution. Saturday night winds will start to
decrease as daytime heating is lost. VFR through the issuance is
expected.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines/AR
NEAR TERM...Haines/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Haines
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
925 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
.UPDATE...
...Hazardous Marine Conditions and Rough Surf through Saturday...
Tonight...High pressure strengthening a bit to our north combined
with broad low pressure in the northwest Caribbean will keep a fresh
east breeze across the coastal waters. Occasionally breezy
conditions are likely along the coast, especially south of Cape
Canaveral, so don`t expect much temperature change overnight with
readings there in the mid 70s. Lower 70s are expected from the Cape
north, with some mid 60s west of Interstate 4 again.
The GFS shows precipitable water rising to about 1.4 inches along
the Treasure Coast but does not generate much precip. Neither does
the local WRF or the HRRR model. Would think that with the uptick
in moisture and breezy flow, a few Atlantic cloud lines will
generate showers. Will not change the current small PoPs we have
from about Melbourne south.
Have made slight temperature/cloud changes in the grids.
&&
.AVIATION...
Occasionally gusty winds are expected at coastal terminals
overnight, approximately 18-22 knots but increasing to 22-25 knots
by mid morning Saturday. Mainly VFR with isolated light showers
moving onshore south of Cape Canaveral later tonight and Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight-Saturday...Hazardous boating conditions still expected with
northeast-east winds 20 knots and gusty. Seas 5-7 feet nearshore
and 7-9 feet offshore.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Saturday
for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...Lascody
IMPACT WX...Ulrich
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR conditions forecast through much of the forecast
cycle, with the exception of late night ground fog development across
most inland areas lowering visibilities to MVFR levels. A few cirrus
clouds will pass over the northern gulf coast through the period.
Light northeast to calm winds overnight will become east to southeast
around 7 knots on Saturday. /22
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/
NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...Water vapor satellite imagery
and RAP 500 mb height analysis show an upper level low translating
westward across the western Gulf of Mexico, while an upper level
ridge of high pressure meanwhile extends from west TX and eastward
across much of the Deep South. Plentiful deep layer subsidence and
dry air is in place across our area, with mostly sunny skies courtesy
of some afternoon cumulus and high level cirrus. Temperatures are
generally ranging in the lower to mid 80s, with readings even
approaching 90 around Greenville as of 3 PM CDT.
Upper level ridging will continue to stretch across the southern and
southeastern U.S. through Saturday, keeping a dry and subsident
airmass in place across our forecast area into Saturday afternoon.
POPs subsequently remain nil. There could be some patchy fog
formation across areas away from the immediate coast again late
tonight and early Saturday morning, though the latest SREF, NAM and
HRRR are not as optimistic on fog development vs. trends the past
couple of days. Lows tonight are forecast to range from the lower to
mid 50s across most inland locations to around 60 to the mid 60s
along the immediate coast and beaches. Highs Saturday should range
from the lower to mid 80s along the immediate coast to the mid to
upper 80s over the interior. /21
SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Upper level
ridging over the Plains and Midwest weakens some this weekend, though
not enough to make any impact as we stay warm and dry here across the
southern Gulf states through the weekend. High pressure at the
surface builds into the southeastern U.S., continuing our generally
light easterly winds, with a weak southerly component possible near
the coast during afternoon hours. High temperatures Sunday and Monday
will range from mid to upper 80s inland to low 80s along the coast.
Overnight lows will dip into the mid 50s inland and low 60s along the
coast each night. /49
LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Another upper level ridge
builds over the southeastern states early to mid next week as
troughing digs into the western CONUS. This ridge will remain over
the area for much of the week, maintaining strong mid to upper level
subsidence and thus warm and dry conditions across the forecast area.
Weather models do currently attempt to dig an upper level low into
the central Gulf states at the tail end of next week. However, plenty
of uncertainty remains at this time regarding the location, timing,
and potential impacts from said system.
Otherwise, expect above seasonal temperatures to continue next week,
with highs reaching the mid 80s inland to low 80s along the coast
each afternoon. Lows will dip into the mid and upper 50s inland to
around 60 along the coast each night. /49
MARINE...A surface ridge of high pressure will continue to extend
across the southeastern U.S. and the Central Gulf Coast region
through the middle of next week. This pattern will continue to
support a light to moderate easterly flow over our marine area
through Wednesday. Wind speeds may range within cautionary levels
well offshore late and night and in the morning through the weekend.
Seas should gradually subside through the weekend and into Monday.
/21
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
337 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Feels like Fall. Overcast skies and cooler conditions will
highlight the short term forecast.
Low stratus, in place over western and central areas, is expected to
linger through at least mid day. The 07Z RAP and HRRR provide good
agreement on a low stratus layer persisting through the morning then
eroding through the early afternoon. Though, the 00Z NAMNest
presents a more aggressive stratus layer persisting through the day.
Surface high pressure will filter in cooler air, as it advances
southward through the day. Notably cooler conditions are expected
with highs in the 40s. Chances for rain, along the leading edge of
the surface high, will continue through much of the day mostly along
and south of Interstate 94.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
The long term is highlighted by above average temperatures through
the period and chances for widespread rain on Monday.
The 00Z UTC global suites are in good agreement on an upper level
ridge across the Northern Plains on Sunday, breaking down as a
shortwave propagates across the region on Monday. Thereafter, an
upper level ridge may begin to build across the region Thursday then
breaking down once again by Friday, as another shortwave scoots
across the region. This pattern favors continued above normal
temperatures for much of the period and a more widespread chance for
rainfall on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
MVFR ceilings is the focus for the 06Z TAF period. KDIK is expected
to have persistent MVFR ceilings while low stratus is forecast to
lift to VFR at KISN/KBIS/KMOT and KJMS towards the latter half of
the TAF period. However, there is a possibly that MVFR stratus may
persist longer than expected. The latest short term models are in
poor agreement on when the stratus will lift to VFR.
Showers are likely across the south. The highest likelihood for rain
should stay south of KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
407 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving low pressure system moving across southern Ontario
and Quebec will bring another round of fairly widespread
precipitation to the North Country today, with temperatures warm
enough to support mainly rain. Quieter conditions ensue for the
second half of the weekend and into early next week as high
pressure builds into the area, with temperatures warming to well
above seasonal normals by mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 233 AM EDT Saturday...Forecast remains generally on track
for the next 24 hours with the main feature being low pressure
shifting east across southern Ontario through mid-day, then across
southern Quebec through the remainder of the period.
For the remainder of the overnight, weak shortwave energy out
ahead of the main energy aloft more closely tied to the surface
low has sparked some light showers as it moved into the Ottawa
Valley and now continues to do so as it shifts into the St.
Lawrence Valley. Latest HRRR has an excellent handle on this and
shows activity continuing across the Adirondacks and into portions
of Vermont over the next few hours. Surface obs show little
restriction in visibility supporting very light precipitation
amounts, but nevertheless it`s going to shower for a few hours
before dawn. Temps remain generally right around or slight above
freezing so don`t think we`ll see any issue with ptype as temps
should remain fairly steady through the night under thick cloud
cover.
As the parent surface low makes its way into southern Quebec after
sunrise, areal coverage of showers will increase as stronger
shortwave energy aloft moves just north of the BTV CWA. Showers
will be most prevalent across central and northern areas, closer
to the best forcing, while southern areas will be more removed
from the deeper moisture and will see more scattered activity.
Continued thick cloud cover will keep temps mild with increasing
south/southwesterly winds pushing temperatures into the mid/upper
40s east to mid/upper 50s west.
Showers continue right into the evening with the surface low
progged to be around Montreal at 00z, but after midnight chances
will slowly diminish as the deeper moisture shifts east of the
area. With thick cloud cover persisting and cold air advection not
all that strong on the backside of the low, min temps will be
rather mild for almost November and range from the mid 30s to mid
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 342 AM EDT Saturday...Sunday will feature low-level CAA with
NW winds 5-10mph. Surface cold front will be sliding to the south
coast of New England during the morning hours. Meanwhile...700-500mb
trough will be shifting ESEWD in prevailing NW flow, and will
cross New England well north of the sfc frontal bndry. The 00Z
NWP model suite has continued previous trend, keeping most of the
precipitation south of our forecast area and closer to sfc frontal
bndry. That said, mid-level shortwave trough will bring variable
clouds, and did keep a slight chance (15-20 PoPs) of rain showers
mentioned, especially srn/higher terrain areas. Generally a chilly
day with slightly below normal temps (though similar to what we`ve
observed during the past week). Highs on Sunday generally in the
mid-upr 40s. A few low 50s are possible with downsloping effects
with NW winds into the CT river valley.
High pressure then builds into the region from Ontario for Sunday
night through Monday (Halloween). Should be a quiet period of
weather. Depending on low clouds, anticipate overnight lows Sunday
night generally low-mid 30s, and upr 20s in the Adirondacks. Could
be several degrees cooler if skies clear more than currently
anticipated. Sfc anticyclone builds across the North Country by
Monday afternoon, with generally light winds and partly to mostly
sunny conditions (1000-500mb RH values generally low at 20-30%).
Should see afternoon highs generally 43-47F range. Should be a
fine Halloween evening - albeit a bit chilly - with temperatures
generally in the upr 30s to lower 40s around sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 342 AM EDT Saturday...Building mid-level heights associated
with strengthening deep layer ridge across the sern U.S./Gulf
Coast states will bring generally dry conditions Monday
night/Tuesday/Tuesday night. Gusty S-SW winds will bring much
warmer air mass into the North Country on Tuesday, with highs
generally mid-upr 50s. Winds generally S-SW 15-20mph. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see some gusts to 35 mph locally in the Champlain
Valley with south channeled flow. Will see mid-level ridge begin
to break down later Wednesday into Wednesday night, likely
bringing some scattered light rain showers as mid-level trough
shifts ewd from the Great Lakes. Best chance for showers will
occur late Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure should
then return bringing cooler and drier conditions for the end of
the work week. Highs Wednesday could reach the lower 60s. Weak
frontal passage should bring highs down a bit Thursday (mid-upr
50s) and Friday (low-mid 50s).
&&
.AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Very changeable conditions are expected
through the next 24 hours as one system continues to exit to our
east, and our next system moves in from the west. Fairly
widespread MVFR and local IFR cigs associated with a low level
inversion and leftover moisture from low pressure exiting off the
coast continues across the area currently, but very weak high
pressure shifting into the area will eventually win over and lift
these cigs to VFR by 12z. VFR conditions will be short-lived
though as our next system moves in from the west/northwest and
expect cigs/vsby to lower back to MVFR from mid-day onward in
light rain showers, and further to MVFR/IFR after sunset.
Winds will be increasingly gusty as well especially in the
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys where gusts up to 20kts from
the south/southwest are possible. In addition, a strong low level
jet shifting through will develop some areas of LLWS across the
Adirondacks.
Outlook 06Z Sunday through Wednesday...
06z Sun - 18z Mon: MVFR/IFR trending to MVFR/VFR as an upper
trough swings through and is replaced by high pressure.
18z Mon - 18z Tue: VFR under high pressure
18z Tue - 18z Wed: Mainly VFR with chance MVFR showers. Gusty S/SW
winds possible Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 341 AM EDT Saturday...A brief period of strong winds is
expected on Lake Champlain today, prompting the issuance of a LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. South to southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots
early this morning will shift to the south and quickly increase to
20 to 30 knots by the noon hour, before gradually lowering to
below 20 knots a couple of hours after sunset. Waves will become
increasingly choppy, building to 2 to 4 feet from noon through the
remainder of the day, and lowering below 2 feet after nightfall.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Lahiff
MARINE...Lahiff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
437 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild temperatures will occur today as high pressure slides to the
south of the area. A cold front will bring a chance of showers to
the northern mountains late in the day and tonight, and to all of
central PA on Sunday. High pressure returns on Monday and may
keep PA dry into the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Southerly winds already developing over the west as the sfc high
slides southward. High clouds overhead this morning will move to
the east, but a lower cloud deck is likely to develop as moisture
in the 900-800hPa layer is lifted as it moves into the west this
afternoon. Resultant sunshine and deeper mixing in the S/Se will
allow temps to get about 10-14F warmer in the S than the N today.
Very light rain is expected to move into the NW counties around
sunset or perhaps an hour before as the front dips southward to
near KBUF early this evening. However, forcing is well to the
north. Rain will be very light/spotty. Not worth more than chc
POPs more due to the possibility of rain not measuring. But, it
should at least drip in the far NW before dark.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast for the short term is highly continuous. The front will
stall for a short time as it gets to the PA-NY border due to a
weak sfc wave forming along the front over the midwest. The upper
short wave trough timing is very solid, and should bring the best
enhancement to lift in during the daylight on Sunday as the wave
moves to the east across the state. Much of the precip seems like
it will fall along and perhaps north of the front, and little
convective enhancement will keep the rainfall light. QPF on the
order of a tenth to one quarter of an inch.
The front is well south of the state by midnight Sunday night.
Will cut off precip in the aftn in the N and early evening along
MD border. A little cross-lake llvl flow will make clouds and a
few --shra Sunday night. Will keep POPs high during daylight hours
overall and hardly mention precip Sun night. Mins tonight will
stay up in the 50s to perhaps close to 60F in the SC mtns. Maxes
on Sunday will be dependent upon how much sun they receive in the
southern tier - but they should again rise into the l70s. The
far northern tier will barely rise a deg or two as the clouds and
early-day fropa/caa keep the temps down there.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A brief cool down will occur Monday (under NW flow aloft with a
1026mb sfc high sliding by across upstate NY and SERN canada) with
perhaps a few morning light showers or flurries across the mtns NE
of KIPT thanks to shallow moisture streaming SE from Lake Ontario
and zero C wet bulb temps within 1 kft agl.
Warmer air floods into the region from the west later Monday night
into the midweek period with generally nothing more than periods
of mid/high-level clouds and maybe a few light showers brushing
the nrn tier of the state Tuesday as a flat shortwave aloft races
ENE across the Lower Great Lakes region.
Disjointed...nrn and southern stream waves moving through the Mid
Miss Valley and Lower Great Lakes regions Thursday/Thursday night
could bring a few showers to the region. Prior to this later week
cfropa...high temps Wed and Thursday should surge well into the
60s and lower 70s in many locations Wednesday. Temps could be
warmer than currently forecast Thursday in the SE zones if timing
on the cfropa is a bit slower.
The upper level ridge across the eastern U.S. during the early to
mid week period will retrograde to the Rockies and High Plains
late in the week and next weekend...allowing the upper flow in
the east to veer to the NW...with one or two chunks of nrn stream
energy bringing a few cold fronts and isolated to scattered
showers.
Overall, the upcoming week will be milder than normal and
reasonably quiet with 7 day QPF likely under 0.25...and almost
definitely under 0.50 inch in all areas.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure over the region will provide fair weather tonight
across Central Pa with just enough of a breeze to preclude any
significant fog issues.
A cold front will approach from the north on Saturday, bringing
the chance of showers and MVFR cigs to KBFD during the PM hours.
Will also be expecting increasingly gusty WSW winds preceding the
front. A combination of bufkit soundings and HRRR output supports
gusts during the afternoon to near 30kts at KBFD, near 25kts at
KJST and generally under 20kts elsewhere.
Outlook...
Sun...Showers/low cigs possible, mainly KBFD/KJST.
Mon...AM fog possible, mainly KBFD.
Tue-Wed...No sig wx expected.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert
AVIATION...Fitzgerald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
357 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
At 345 AM, skies were cloudy across the Northland. Low clouds,
along with patchy drizzle and fog blanketed the entire region,
behind a departing cold front well south of the area. A trough
hanging back from the surface low over the northern Great Lakes
was located across the Canadian border, but more-so just into
northwest Ontario. Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s to the
mid 50s with northwest winds.
The focus for today will be cloud trends and chances of
precipitation. The models are generally in agreement in washing
out the trough extending into northwest Ontario, as it moves
further southward into the Lake Superior region. Forecast
soundings indicate abundant moisture trapped beneath subsidence
inversion that was developing across the region. As a result, it
looks like a good deal of cloud cover this weekend. We could see
some holes in spots, but think sunshine will be very limited.
Patchy drizzle and fog, especially this morning will also persist
across the region. Cannot rule out a stray shower or two as well
but most places will see generally dry conditions.
The RAP captures a shortwave sliding eastward across central
Minnesota and central/northern Wisconsin by later today and this
evening. The models generally bring precipitation into our
southern areas with this feature, so will have higher pops along
our southern border. Best precipitation at this point looks to
move just south of our CWA. High temperatures this weekend look to
be in the 40s to lower 50s for the most part.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
A ridge will gradually build eastward into the central Great Lakes
Sunday evening. Behind the ridge, a shortwave will eject from the
Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains by Monday evening. Ahead
of the shortwave, an area of low pressure will develop in response
to height falls ahead of the shortwave in the Northern Plains Monday
morning. The warm front associated with the low will lift
northeastward into northern Minnesota. This will bring increasing
cloud cover Sunday evening with rain spreading into the Northland on
Monday. Expect rain to come to an end by early Tuesday morning once
the low moves into Ontario. Expect gusty winds Monday into early
Tuesday as the deepening low tightens the pressure gradient across
the Northland.
Will generally see dry conditions Tuesday into Wednesday as quasi-
zonal flow develops at 500 hPa, while a 850 hPa ridge builds over
the region per the GFS/ECMWF/GEM. Later on Wednesday will see
another shortwave dig into the Northern Plains. Still have some
differences with the ECWMF being a good compromise between the GFS
and GEM in both the timing and intensity of this next wave moving
in. Still kept dry conditions on Wednesday despite the shortwave as
the moisture is lacking in the lower levels. Expect a dry forecast
heading late into the week as high pressure builds into the
Northern Plains on Thursday and the Central Great Lakes on Friday.
Do however see some differences behind the high, as a shortwave
moves into northern Minnesota on Friday. The GFS features a weaker
shortwave moving through on Friday, whereas the ECMWF is stronger
and a tad more progressive.
Will see high temperatures ranging from the 40s to 50s through the
extended with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
MVFR and patchy IFR conditions with some light fog and low
ceilings through the whole TAF period. Winds will be on the light
side.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 35 46 38 / 20 0 0 10
INL 44 31 43 36 / 10 10 0 10
BRD 48 34 47 40 / 20 0 0 10
HYR 52 37 49 38 / 30 10 0 10
ASX 51 38 48 36 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...CLC/WL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
350 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Today and tonight...a dirty ridge across Srn Saskatchewan is
heavily flavored with trapped moisture. Stratus is widespread
across the Nrn Plains and Srn Canada. The models move the ridge
through the Upper Missouri basin today and build into Wrn
Nebraska tonight. The multimodel ensemble of 18 models suggest
highs in the 50s north to mid 70s south. The forecast uses a
blend of HRRR and RAP models plus bias correction.
Stratus is expected to move into Nrn Nebraska this morning
holding down highs to the 50s. There is a chance it will break up
this afternoon across the north but the RAP suggests it would
lift to 5000ft agl. Areas along and south of I-80 should remain
partly cloudy with the stratus remaining north of the area.
The dirty ridge builds west into Wrn Nebraska tonight setting up
light upslope winds and widespread stratus. The visibility
products in the NAM...ARW...NMM and SREF suggest fog will form
late tonight. All models show stratus forming throughout the
forecast area. Lows fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Surface high pressure will shift east on Sunday towards the Miss
Rvr Valley. Coolest air across north central Neb, although with
highs in the lower 60s, still above normal. Western Nebraska will
see highs in the mid to upper 60s. Could see some morning fog
and will need to monitor closely as stratus/fog could cause highs
to be a little cooler if it lingers longer than models expect.
High pressure continues to push towards the Great Lakes on Sunday
night into Monday as a low pressure system crosses the northern
Rockies/northern plains. First a warm front early Sunday night
followed by a weak cold front early Monday. 850 mb temps surge to
nearly 20 C early Monday then fall to the mid teens C behind the
front. Strong winds expected behind the front, especially across
northwestern Neb, where gusts of 40 mph or higher will be
possible. Good mixing behind the front will push temps into the
70s and could even see some low 80s across SW into C Neb.
November to start out mild with highs in the 60s to around 70 and
lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Upper level low digs across the SW
Conus into NW Mexico. A short wave will lift across the plains
Thurs night into Fri. Best moisture across SC into E Nebraska and
model consensus does bring some showers into far eastern zones.
Rarity for November but models bring negative lift index values
into central Nebraska with this system early Friday morning. Will
include low pops but feel the need to have at least a mention of
thunder due to the instability.
System quickly moves east with the mild temperatures to continue
into the weekend as the low tracks well to the south and ridging
develops over the Rockies into the high plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
VFR conditions are observed across western and north central NEB
at the present time. Latest satellite imagery shows dense high
cirrus still over much of the local forecast area with a few
breaks in sky cover. Underneath the high clouds upstream and
overhead there does not appear to be any lower ceilings or cloud
bases based on the latest surface plot. The main concerns through
the aviation forecast period is low ceilings tomorrow and low
precipitation chances.
High level clouds will persist the rest of tonight. Upper air
soundings this evening showed ample dry air in place at lower
levels that need to be overcome and this will take time. As such,
this will effect timing of low ceilings. Current thinking is that
portions of the northern-third of the forecast area will see
ceilings lower to low-end VFR then MVFR beginning early to mid
morning tomorrow. KVTN is expected to see ceilings lower to MVFR
before noon CDT. MVFR ceilings are then expected to spread
southward toward the central NEB Sandhills by early afternoon. Low
confidence in light rain tomorrow with the best chances in far
northwest NEB in the morning. Elsewhere, sky cover is expected to
decrease slowly across southwest and south central NEB beginning
mid-late morning. Light winds will continue overnight. Winds will
shift as a cold front moves southward early-mid morning. Light
breezes tomorrow with winds up to 12 kts during the afternoon that
then lessen in the evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Fire weather conditions could become critical on Monday. Break
down of the ridge, a favorable pattern for elevated to critical
conditions, with the passage of a weak cold front. Models in good
agreement with strong winds in excess of 25 mph by the afternoon,
with gusts in excess of 40 mph across northwest Neb. This will
combine with dry conditions of RH values around 20 percent. Will
continue to monitor but headlines may be needed.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...Masek
See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2016
An upper level shortwave currently over Idaho will track across
South Dakota through today. While this system does have decent
moisture aloft, drier air filter into the region from the north will
limit QPF amounts. Good frontogenesis should produce a narrow band
of heavier QPF today. This system is fairly progressive so expected
QPF amounts under a quarter of an inch.
A surface high pressure, currently over Saskatchewan, will gradually
build southeastward across the region tonight through Sunday. While
cooler temperatures are expected with the surface high, an extensive
low stratus field currently associated with the high could keep
temps from free falling. If we see a prolonged period of clear
skies, then lows will be colder. The surface high shifts east of the
region on Sunday allowing for WAA to develop mainly west river. The
WAA will continue through Sunday night into Monday with 850 mb
temps likely reaching the upper teens by 12Z Monday. The warm
temperatures will definitely mixed down to the surface as a strong
surface low pressure system tracks northeastward across the
region Monday afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient and weak
CAA, strong west to northwesterly winds are likely on Monday.
Winds should exceed advisory levels west of the James River. With
the strong winds and low afternoon relative humidity values, fire
weather will be a concern for west river counties on Monday. A
fire weather headline maybe needed in the near future.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2016
A few changes in the flow pattern out in the extended forecast
period, compared to 24 hours ago. The precipitation chances noted
last night for Thursday afternoon/evening have really diminished.
Basically, from Monday night through Saturday the forecast is dry.
When the period opens, nearly zonal flow is evolving into split flow
by Wednesday morning, and this cwa is locked up in the northern
branch of the split. Shortwave ridging aloft sets up by the middle
of the week before larger scale longwave ridging eventually sits
down over the central/northern plains over the weekend. Low level
thermal progs in the 00Z GFS and ECMWF continue to advertise warmer
than climo normal temperatures in the out periods as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2016
Mid and high clouds have been replaced by a mixture of MVFR/IFR
clouds this morning. Rain is moving in from the west as well, so
don`t be surprised if VFR visbies fall off occasionally in areas
of moderate or heavier rainfall. Rain should be ending by mid-
afternoon at KPIR and KMBG and by early evening at KABR and KATY.
Look for generally 10 to 15 knot sustained winds out of the north
throughout the TAF valid period while surface high pressure is
building into the region.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
839 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Low to mid level frontogenesis evident in southern ND and into
northern SD per latest NAM and local/regional radar along with
surface observations. Swath of steady light rain lines up nicely
with the NAM 850-700mb frontogensis location, and 500-300mb Q
vector convergence, both in phase with each other allowing for
deep vertical motion and resultant steady light. Lapse rates
remain weak, thus not expecting anything much heavier than we are
currently seeing. Main update was to increase pops to categorical/100
percent in the south through mid to late morning, then diminish
thereafter as frontogenetical forcing and upper level Q-vector
Convergence shifts into southeast ND and northeast SD by 18z
Saturday. Cold air advection continues today, with the remainder
of the forecast on track at this time.
UPDATE Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Area of light rain continues over southwest and south central
North Dakota in area of modest frontogenesis as a weak short wave
moves into the area. Expect this to gradually taper and move
towards the south as better lift focuses over that area and
ridging amplifies to the west. Have adjusted precipitation grids
to reflect this.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Feels like Fall. Overcast skies and cooler conditions will
highlight the short term forecast.
Low stratus, in place over western and central areas, is expected to
linger through at least mid day. The 07Z RAP and HRRR provide good
agreement on a low stratus layer persisting through the morning then
eroding through the early afternoon. Though, the 00Z NAMNest
presents a more aggressive stratus layer persisting through the day.
Surface high pressure will filter in cooler air, as it advances
southward through the day. Notably cooler conditions are expected
with highs in the 40s. Chances for rain, along the leading edge of
the surface high, will continue through much of the day mostly along
and south of Interstate 94.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
The long term is highlighted by above average temperatures through
the period and chances for widespread rain on Monday.
The 00Z UTC global suites are in good agreement on an upper level
ridge across the Northern Plains on Sunday, breaking down as a
shortwave propagates across the region on Monday. Thereafter, an
upper level ridge may begin to build across the region Thursday then
breaking down once again by Friday, as another shortwave scoots
across the region. This pattern favors continued above normal
temperatures for much of the period and a more widespread chance for
rainfall on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Widespread MVFR with localized IFR cigs will continue through this
morning into this afternoon. Later this afternoon into tonight
cigs will gradually improve to VFR levels over most locations.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1117 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild temperatures will occur today as high pressure slides to the
south of the area. A cold front will bring a chance of showers to
the northern mountains late in the day and tonight, and to all of
central PA on Sunday. High pressure returns on Monday and may
keep PA dry into the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Strong southwesterly flow over the region today with a surge of
some unseasonably warm air aloft. The 850 hPa temperatures peak
out at 12 to 14C today. Should be quite a warm day. Perhaps
tempered by the clouds zipping by aloft and the more continuous
cloud shield to our northwest which should work its way south of
the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.
HRRR and GEFS imply any rain will be light later this afternoon in
extreme northwestern areas.
The low-level inversion has probably kept most areas not in the
lee of the ridges with light winds. Expect mixing to let us all
know that there are strong winds aloft latter this morning and
afternoon. Winds will diminish a bit after sunset.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Increasing clouds with increasing chance of rain/showers northwest
to southeast overnight. Much warmer with the surge of warm air and
the clouds.
HRRR and RAP imply very scattered shower activity in western PA
prior to midnight. This is actually implied in the 3-hour GEFS
data with 0.05 to 0.10 of QPF confined to NW PA most of the time.
But when the front pushes to the south and east SREF and GEFS show
a good band of high POPS move across the State from NW to SE in
the 1200 to 0000 UTC timeframe. NW PA should see the rain end
shortly after noon and perhaps evening to late evening in the
southeast. The GEFS 3-hour POPS after 0000 UTC Monday (Sunday eve)
are about 20-30 percent and all gone by 0300 to 0600 UTC
timeframe.
Colder air comes in behind the front and the QPF is in the 0.05 to
0.15 range in most forecast systems. Not much rain.
Bottom line: afternoon may be best for outdoor activities in
west/northwest and the morning to early afternoon in the
east/southeast.
Conditions improve everywhere overnight Sunday into Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A brief cool down will occur Monday (under NW flow aloft with a
1026mb sfc high sliding by across upstate NY and SERN canada) with
perhaps a few morning light showers or flurries across the mtns NE
of KIPT thanks to shallow moisture streaming SE from Lake Ontario
and zero C wet bulb temps within 1 kft agl.
Warmer air floods into the region from the west later Monday night
into the midweek period with generally nothing more than periods
of mid/high-level clouds and maybe a few light showers brushing
the nrn tier of the state Tuesday as a flat shortwave aloft races
ENE across the Lower Great Lakes region.
Disjointed...nrn and southern stream waves moving through the Mid
Miss Valley and Lower Great Lakes regions Thursday/Thursday night
could bring a few showers to the region. Prior to this later week
cfropa...high temps Wed and Thursday should surge well into the
60s and lower 70s in many locations Wednesday. Temps could be
warmer than currently forecast Thursday in the SE zones if timing
on the cfropa is a bit slower.
The upper level ridge across the eastern U.S. during the early to
mid week period will retrograde to the Rockies and High Plains
late in the week and next weekend...allowing the upper flow in
the east to veer to the NW...with one or two chunks of nrn stream
energy bringing a few cold fronts and isolated to scattered
showers.
Overall, the upcoming week will be milder than normal and
reasonably quiet with 7 day QPF likely under 0.25...and almost
definitely under 0.50 inch in all areas.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR kind of day as we are on the northern side of a retreating
high pressure center and southwest of an approaching front. Thus
it will be quite breezy today and there could be some boundary
layer turbulence and weak shear on takeoff and landing until
around sunset.
Overnight the front will slowly bring areas MVFR to the region
with light rain/showers. This will pick up overnight into early
morning in the KBFD area and spread west to east getting to
KMDT/KCXY/KLNS in the afternoon around 18-12Z.
Conditions improve west to east Sunday afternoon and evening. Some
patch MVFR overnight Sunday into Monday and a pleasant flying week
should unfold outside the patchy AM autumn fog zone issues.
Outlook...
Sun...Showers/low cigs possible, mainly KBFD/KJST early MKMDT late.
Mon...AM fog possible, mainly KBFD.
Tue-Wed...No sig wx expected.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert
AVIATION...Grumm
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
620 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
At 345 AM, skies were cloudy across the Northland. Low clouds,
along with patchy drizzle and fog blanketed the entire region,
behind a departing cold front well south of the area. A trough
hanging back from the surface low over the northern Great Lakes
was located across the Canadian border, but more-so just into
northwest Ontario. Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s to the
mid 50s with northwest winds.
The focus for today will be cloud trends and chances of
precipitation. The models are generally in agreement in washing
out the trough extending into northwest Ontario, as it moves
further southward into the Lake Superior region. Forecast
soundings indicate abundant moisture trapped beneath subsidence
inversion that was developing across the region. As a result, it
looks like a good deal of cloud cover this weekend. We could see
some holes in spots, but think sunshine will be very limited.
Patchy drizzle and fog, especially this morning will also persist
across the region. Cannot rule out a stray shower or two as well
but most places will see generally dry conditions.
The RAP captures a shortwave sliding eastward across central
Minnesota and central/northern Wisconsin by later today and this
evening. The models generally bring precipitation into our
southern areas with this feature, so will have higher pops along
our southern border. Best precipitation at this point looks to
move just south of our CWA. High temperatures this weekend look to
be in the 40s to lower 50s for the most part.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
A ridge will gradually build eastward into the central Great Lakes
Sunday evening. Behind the ridge, a shortwave will eject from the
Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains by Monday evening. Ahead
of the shortwave, an area of low pressure will develop in response
to height falls ahead of the shortwave in the Northern Plains Monday
morning. The warm front associated with the low will lift
northeastward into northern Minnesota. This will bring increasing
cloud cover Sunday evening with rain spreading into the Northland on
Monday. Expect rain to come to an end by early Tuesday morning once
the low moves into Ontario. Expect gusty winds Monday into early
Tuesday as the deepening low tightens the pressure gradient across
the Northland.
Will generally see dry conditions Tuesday into Wednesday as quasi-
zonal flow develops at 500 hPa, while a 850 hPa ridge builds over
the region per the GFS/ECMWF/GEM. Later on Wednesday will see
another shortwave dig into the Northern Plains. Still have some
differences with the ECWMF being a good compromise between the GFS
and GEM in both the timing and intensity of this next wave moving
in. Still kept dry conditions on Wednesday despite the shortwave as
the moisture is lacking in the lower levels. Expect a dry forecast
heading late into the week as high pressure builds into the
Northern Plains on Thursday and the Central Great Lakes on Friday.
Do however see some differences behind the high, as a shortwave
moves into northern Minnesota on Friday. The GFS features a weaker
shortwave moving through on Friday, whereas the ECMWF is stronger
and a tad more progressive.
Will see high temperatures ranging from the 40s to 50s through the
extended with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
An upper level disturbance will slide across the Upper Midwest
today and into the Central Great Lakes late tonight. Behind this
system high pressure will build into the Northern Plains per the
latest forecast guidance. This will bring MVFR/IFR ceilings this
morning, which will gradually lift this afternoon as the mixed
layer develops...per the latest NAM/GFS/RAP. Expect cloud cover to
decrease late this evening as high pressure builds in from the
Northern Plains. Expect winds less than 10 kts through the
forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 48 35 46 38 / 20 0 0 10
INL 44 31 43 36 / 10 10 0 10
BRD 48 34 47 40 / 20 0 0 10
HYR 52 37 49 38 / 30 10 0 10
ASX 51 38 48 36 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...WL
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1101 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.UPDATE...
Fog and low stratus clouds continue across our southeastern
counties this morning, but is already dissipating with daytime
mixing. For the update, adjusted cloud cover in our southeastern
counties for the next few hours and also increased cloud cover in
our western counties where high clouds are streaming in from the
west. In addition, adjusted high temperatures down a few degrees
in our southeastern counties due to slower warming this morning
as a result of the clouds and fog. Afternoon highs are still
expected to be in the 80s with several locations in the upper 80s.
As stray shower may move into our far southern counties in Central
Texas but did not include a mention as the potential is pretty
low.
JLDunn
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016/
/12Z TAFS/
Challenges on cigs will occur at Waco Regional Airport both early
this morning, and again before dawn Sunday. DFW airports should
remain VFR throughout the 24 to 30 hour forecast.
Area radar VWPs (VAD wind profilers) showing SSW 925mb flow near
20 kts at Waco and 30 kts in the DFW area early this morning.
IFR/LIFR category stratus was surging northward across the
T35 (Cameron) and TPL (Temple) areas as of 11z and current HRRR
and RAP Ops40 soundings were indicating this could briefly affect
Waco Regional this morning between 13z-15z, but could stay just SE
of the airport as well. For now, will TEMPO IFR cigs at Waco
Regional and go with the higher category due to 925mb flow being
stronger than where the KGRK radar is located. Another round of
IFR cigs should arrive over Waco Regional again after midnight,
despite a more veered 925mb LLJ.
Otherwise, as already noted, veering and weakening of the 925mb
LLJ should keep any stratus south and southeast of the DFW metro
airports. The LLJ is forecast to be veered even more (west-
southwest) tonight, so stratus should remain over Central Texas.
South flow 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots is
expected during the daytime hours, with speeds likely 10 knots or
less tonight.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
Quick update here to add in patchy fog wording to the forecast
roughly south of a line from Killeen to Palestine through 10 AM
and to give cloud coverage a bump upwards. Latest satellite trends
reveal a solid deck of stratus is beginning to move into our far
southern counties, ushered northwards on a 20-25 kt low-level jet.
Latest indications are that winds just off the surface will remain
high enough to keep this stratus from building down into a
widespread area of dense fog, but some localized visibility
reductions will be possible through the mid-morning hours. Updated
products have been transmitted.
Carlaw
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016/
Water vapor loops this morning reveal an expansive upper-low
dropping into the Pacific Northwest as a lead impulse is rapidly
tracking northeastward into Wyoming. Out ahead of these features,
mid-level ridging is in place across much of Texas, and will
continue to control our sensible weather through the weekend.
While low-level moisture continues to gradually increase to our
south across the Hill Country, it appears any fog formation
across our far southern counties will occur on a highly localized
basis as the boundary layer remains somewhat coupled and winds
stay up in the 3 to 6 kt range. We`ll monitor trends over the next
few hours, however. Otherwise, today will feature a decent
southerly breeze thanks to an increased pressure gradient, some
passing high clouds, and temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees
above climatology. Dry conditions are expected to hold through
Monday, although low-level moisture will be ever so slowly
increasing through this period.
By Tuesday, upper ridging will move off towards the east, which
will really open us up to a deep tap of moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico. This increased moisture content, combined with some weak
impulses zipping through the increasingly southwesterly flow aloft
should be sufficient to generate showers and storms--initially
south of I-20 Tuesday afternoon. Precip chances look to spread
northeastward across roughly the eastern 2/3rds of our CWA Tuesday
night, and then across all of North Central Texas on Wednesday.
Widespread forcing for ascent will not be present during this
timeframe (other than possibly some transient mid-level
perturbations), and as a result, I`ve capped PoPs to 30% at this
time. Any storms during this period will be capable of producing
some locally heavy rainfall as PWAT values surge to 2-3 standard
deviations above normal.
It appears the best moisture content will slowly shift towards the
west on Thursday as an upper-low drops into Arizona. Given
indications for the best moisture and lift focusing to the west of
our CWA, we`ll continue to show low PoPs (20%) area-wide on
Thursday.
The Thursday night-Saturday portion of this forecast is far from
certain at this point. Model run consistency has been poor so far,
and ensemble guidance remains split on what to do with the
aformentioned upper-low across southern Arizona. Any hope of a
clearer picture was likewise dashed with this evening`s 29/00Z
ECMWF, which reverted to a similar solution it was advertising
several days ago. At this point, in order to keep some semblance
of consistency with the going forecast and given the degree of
volatility with this pattern, I opted to keep the Thursday night
to Saturday morning period period dry. Indications at this time
are that the best combination of moisture and forcing for ascent
will remain west and north of our CWA. Be aware that this portion
of the forecast will likely remain in a state of flux over the
next several days.
Carlaw
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 67 88 66 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 84 65 87 62 86 / 5 5 5 0 5
Paris 85 63 86 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 87 64 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 85 64 86 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 88 67 88 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 85 64 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 86 65 86 63 86 / 5 5 0 0 5
Temple 83 63 87 61 86 / 10 10 5 0 10
Mineral Wells 86 61 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
26/82
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1026 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A large area of light to moderate rain and showers, accompanied by a
few thunderstorms, is maintaining itself in the Atlantic waters south
and southwest of the Lower Keys. Additional showers are skirting the
Keys island chain and reaching even further into Florida Bay and the
adjacent Gulf waters. With a stiff east wind under mostly cloudy
skies, temperatures along the island chain are in the middle to upper
70s.
The early morning local sounding shows the strong northeast to east
breezes extend to almost 15000 feet. The column is quite moist to
about 8000 feet with a shallow somewhat drier layer just above that,
and then deep moisture extending above that through the troposphere.
The best mid to upper level energy is deflected to our northwest and
north. However, a measure of confluence is expected through the
lowest layers through the balance of today and into tonight. For
today, any pocket of showers that develops upstream (to our east)
will have the potential to pull through the island chain. A few
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out of the short term either. The
latest HRRR for the local area is showing such a scenario,
highlighting the 18z through 21z window for the highest probability
of rain along the island chain, and then another episode from sunset
into tonight. At this time, do not plan to update the morning zone
forecast which has the sensible weather elements advertised well.
&&
.MARINE...
Little if any adjustments are expected on the late morning coastal
waters update. Expect strong northeast to east breezes to continue
today, and only easing a few knots tonight through Sunday. Small
craft advisory headlines will continue for all marine zone
surrounding the Florida Keys.
&&
.AVIATION...
Numerous showers will impact the terminals through the period
resulting in frequent reduced visibilities to 4-6 NM. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected mainly from mid afternoon through
tonight. Brief MVFR ceilings, heavy downpours, and wind gusts over
30 knots are possible in the heavier activity. East winds 12-15
knots with gusts 20-25 knots are expected outside of thunderstorm
activity.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...04
Aviation/Nowcasts....MM
Data Collection......Rizzo
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Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Today and tonight...a dirty ridge across Srn Saskatchewan is
heavily flavored with trapped moisture. Stratus is widespread
across the Nrn Plains and Srn Canada. The models move the ridge
through the Upper Missouri basin today and build into Wrn
Nebraska tonight. The multimodel ensemble of 18 models suggest
highs in the 50s north to mid 70s south. The forecast uses a
blend of HRRR and RAP models plus bias correction.
Stratus is expected to move into Nrn Nebraska this morning
holding down highs to the 50s. There is a chance it will break up
this afternoon across the north but the RAP suggests it would
lift to 5000ft agl. Areas along and south of I-80 should remain
partly cloudy with the stratus remaining north of the area.
The dirty ridge builds west into Wrn Nebraska tonight setting up
light upslope winds and widespread stratus. The visibility
products in the NAM...ARW...NMM and SREF suggest fog will form
late tonight. All models show stratus forming throughout the
forecast area. Lows fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Surface high pressure will shift east on Sunday towards the Miss
Rvr Valley. Coolest air across north central Neb, although with
highs in the lower 60s, still above normal. Western Nebraska will
see highs in the mid to upper 60s. Could see some morning fog
and will need to monitor closely as stratus/fog could cause highs
to be a little cooler if it lingers longer than models expect.
High pressure continues to push towards the Great Lakes on Sunday
night into Monday as a low pressure system crosses the northern
Rockies/northern plains. First a warm front early Sunday night
followed by a weak cold front early Monday. 850 mb temps surge to
nearly 20 C early Monday then fall to the mid teens C behind the
front. Strong winds expected behind the front, especially across
northwestern Neb, where gusts of 40 mph or higher will be
possible. Good mixing behind the front will push temps into the
70s and could even see some low 80s across SW into C Neb.
November to start out mild with highs in the 60s to around 70 and
lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Upper level low digs across the SW
Conus into NW Mexico. A short wave will lift across the plains
Thurs night into Fri. Best moisture across SC into E Nebraska and
model consensus does bring some showers into far eastern zones.
Rarity for November but models bring negative lift index values
into central Nebraska with this system early Friday morning. Will
include low pops but feel the need to have at least a mention of
thunder due to the instability.
System quickly moves east with the mild temperatures to continue
into the weekend as the low tracks well to the south and ridging
develops over the Rockies into the high plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
A dirty ridge of high pressure is moving south out of Saskatchewan
affecting the Nrn Plains with widespread MVFR/IFR cigs. This high
pressure will build through the Upper Missouri Basin today and
ridge into Wrn Neb tonight.
MVFR will likely spread into Nrn Nebraska this morning affecting
KVTN. It may mix to VFR this afternoon but almost certainly lower
to MVFR/IFR tonight. The area of MVFR/IFR will likely move south
to KLBF tonight.
The model consensus suggests fog and IFR/LIFR will develop around
09z tonight. The models vary on the location...some favoring Swrn
and Ncntl Neb while other favor Wrn Neb. The consensus favors the
sandhills and west into the Panhandle.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Fire weather conditions could become critical on Monday. Break
down of the ridge, a favorable pattern for elevated to critical
conditions, with the passage of a weak cold front. Models in good
agreement with strong winds in excess of 25 mph by the afternoon,
with gusts in excess of 40 mph across northwest Neb. This will
combine with dry conditions of RH values around 20 percent. Will
continue to monitor but headlines may be needed.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Masek
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...Masek
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
827 AM PDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system will pass through today bringing showers to the
region. A stronger system arrives late Sunday into Monday bringing
more rain as well as breezy conditions. The unsettled pattern will
continue at times through next week with above normal
temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: The forecast has been updated for the rest of this morning
based on radar trends. As of 8 am a band of moderate to heavy rain
showers was over the Yakima area producing rain rates as high as
0.10-0.20 inches an hour. Elevated instability with most unstable
CAPE values off the GFS of 50-80 J/KG is likely enhancing the
intensity of these showers. The models are not handling this well
especially the 12z NAM. The southerly flow ahead of an upper wave
currently approaching the Cascades will result in these showers
moving north over the Cascades, Wenatchee, and Moses Lake areas
this morning before continuing to lift north towards the Okanogan
Valley and Highlands by early afternoon. Models do seem to want to
weaken this band of showers as it moves north towards Omak and
Republic with less elevated instability to work with so rain
amounts are expected to be highest with this first band of showers
around Wenatchee and Ephrata.
Another band of rain over the Klamath Falls to Bend, Oregon area
is expected to track northeast into Eastern Washington and north
Idaho this afternoon and evening. The 14z HRRR and the 06z GFS
suggest timing of rain may not reach the North Idaho Panhandle
until early this evening. Will further evaluate new model runs
this morning and radar trends and may update later to further fine
tune the timing of this second band of rain.
Patchy fog this morning is being reported in place like
Spokane...Deer Lake...Old Town...St. Maries...and Clarkia. This is
shallow in depth and should burn off by late morning. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Increasing high clouds will keep fog to a minimum this
morning and confined mainly to river bottoms...with KSFF being
most affected with morning IFR and LIFR conditions. A few shreds
of this fog may advect into the KGEG TAF site between 12Z and 15Z
otherwise VFR conditions are expected through 18Z. A weak occluded
front along the Pacific coast at 12Z will slowly move into and
across the forecast area today. The western TAF sites of KMWH and
KEAT will see an onset of MVFR ceiling -RA by 18Z. The eastern TAF
sites will remain dry and VFR until late in the afternoon with an
onset of -RA and possible MVFR ceilings mainly after 00Z. The best
likelihood of significantly long MVFR conditions will be at KPUW
during this FROPA. Overnight tonight conditions will become
favorable for upslope IFR stratus at KGEG...KCOE and KEAT by 12Z
Sunday. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 42 52 43 49 39 / 50 60 50 80 50 30
Coeur d`Alene 53 43 53 43 48 40 / 60 80 50 80 60 30
Pullman 55 45 54 44 50 42 / 70 80 50 90 60 40
Lewiston 58 47 57 47 56 44 / 70 80 50 80 40 30
Colville 52 40 50 41 49 37 / 60 50 50 80 70 30
Sandpoint 51 39 50 40 46 36 / 50 80 30 90 80 40
Kellogg 51 42 51 41 44 38 / 60 90 50 90 80 40
Moses Lake 54 40 54 42 55 39 / 60 10 60 60 30 20
Wenatchee 53 40 50 42 53 41 / 90 10 80 70 30 20
Omak 53 40 52 41 52 38 / 60 30 70 60 40 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
303 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
We expect the gusty westerly winds near the foothills to drop off
by sunset...with winds becoming northerly...then northeasterly.
There is a large area of stratus in northern nebraska that is
starting to move our way according to satellite loops. New HRRR
shows high relative humidities moving into northeast Colorado a
lot earlier that previous forecast...and have spread a stratus
deck westward this evening and overnight. the proximity of the
surface high in Nebraska will keep northeast Colorado a bit
cooler both tonight and again on Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Powerful Polar jet stream arching well to our north around a
strong mid-level anticyclone/high pressure centered over New
Mexico at the present time will propagate eastward during the
first half of the upcoming week. All models show the core of this
100+ kt jet aligning sw-ne over nwrn Colorado by Monday. Within
this flow a weak mid-level shortwave trough will pass over Utah.
By Sunday night could see cross barrier winds in the 50-60kt
range as the shortwave trough nears the area. However the NAM
indicates a peak wind component of 75kts fm 09z-12z/Mon at the
crest of the Front Range. Will need to closely monitor the next
model run to determine the need for a high wind watch for upper
slopes of the Front Range Sunday night and Monday morning.
Otherwise winds not expected to be anywhere that strong at lower
elevations although foothill areas could see downslope winds
gusting in the 45-60 mph range during the same time period. On
Monday...should see winds relaxing as a band of showery precip
crosses the northern mtns with the passing shortwave. Model QPF
amts on the light side and snow levels should stay high--
generally above 9500-10000 ft agl. Lower elevations will stay
dry. Temps on Monday little changed from the day before with a
continuation of warming and drying with downslope flow. As the
shortwave trough passes...could see gusty nwly winds develop acrs
the northeast corner of the CWA Monday afternoon which will
elevate the wildland fire danger in this area.
For the remainder of the week...the region remains under a swift
southwest flow aloft as a deepening upper trough swings across the
Great Basin. The trough appears more amplified with the latest
model run. A shot of energy and moisture rounding the bottom of
this trough is progged to race newrd acrs nwrn Colorado late on
Tuesday bringing another chance of rain/snow to the nrn mtn
ranges Tuesday night. As the trough nears the state models show
further amplification of the trough and perhaps a better
opportunity for measurable precip notably acrs nrn and wrn
portions of the fcst area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Cooler
temps will lower the snow level possibly down to 8000-9000 ft
late Tuesday night/erly Wednesday morning. Areas of light snow
accum possible at higher elevations. Passing energy could also
generate spotty rain shower coverage on the plains on Wednesday.
By late in the day...all models show the 700-500 mb trough axis
passing east of the Front Range and gusty nwly drying winds
developing on the plains. Then a upper ridge moves overhead
Thursday warming and drying the local airmass in advance of what
some models show another weather disturbance lifting out of
Arizona. Not sure how much of an impact this feature will have on
the CWA. For now will just trend towards more cloud cover on
Friday mainly over swly portions of the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Winds should transition from gusty northwesterly this afternoon to
northerly this evening...downslope late tonight. We will have VFR
ceilings this evening...but a stratus deck will be approaching
from the east and there may be a threat of ifr ceilings and fog
especially at dia between 10z and 14z tomorrow morning.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...RTG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
637 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A a fast moving low pressure system will move eastward across
southern Quebec this evening bringing showers and slightly milder
air to New York and Vermont. A weak cold front will move
southeast across the region tonight with scattered showers as
well. A weak weather weather disturbance will bring variable
amounts of clouds north and a chance of showers to southern
Vermont on Sunday. High pressure builds into the area on Monday
with quiet weather. Temperatures warming to well above seasonal
normals by Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front arrives
with a chance of precipitation.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 628 PM EDT Saturday...Locally run BTV4 is my model of choice
for this update. It is the only one that has a good handle on the
low level warmth surging up the St. Lawrence Valley, besting our
other locally run models as well as National HRRR and RAP. KMSS
sitting at 57 degrees at 22z after passage of the surface warm
front and in advance of approaching cold front. Champlain Valley
warming into the upper 40s and should make it to 50-51 this
evening before warm air advection comes to an end. Radar returns
have been unimpressive this evening, picking up only light showers
or virga. Lowered precip chances by blending in BTV4 model POPs
which did a nice job of highlighting the higher terrain through
the evening. Still breezey out there with sustained winds in the
teens in the warm sector with gusts into the 20s.
Previous discussion...Surface low currently entering Quebec will
movejust north of the BTV CWA this evening. Showers will be most
prevalent across central and northern areas, closer to the best
forcing, while southern areas will be more removed from the deeper
moisture and will see more scattered activity.
A trailing cold front will move southeastward through the region
overnight but will stall over southern New York and New England as
a weak upper level trof moves east. So decreasing chances of
showers tonight but with persistent clouds. It will be a
relatively mild night with lows either side of 40.
A second more impressive upper-level trof approaches on Sunday
and digs southeast across the northeast. This should be enough to
regenerate showers across southern New York and southern New
England on Sunday. Some of these showers will threaten areas south
of Rt 4 in VT so have a low chance there, otherwise mainly
variable amounts of clouds north. 925 temps 0 to 4C on Sunday
should keep most locations in the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 PM EDT Saturday...High pressure will be building into
the region Sunday night. There may still be some lingering showers
during the first half of the night...but then drier conditions
should prevail. These dry conditions will last Monday and Monday
night as well as high pressure gradually moves east of the region.
Cold air advection associated with northwest flow aloft Sunday
night and Monday will result in below normal high temperatures for
Monday. Readings will generally be in the 40s...but these
conditions will not last long with warmer air moving in starting
on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 318 PM EDT Saturday...Extended forecast will feature a
warming trend on Tuesday and Wednesday with above normal
temperatures. Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in the
mid 50s to lower 60s as large upper ridge builds into the region.
Before the ridge builds in...an upper trough will move across
eastern Canada and could bring a few showers to the region Tuesday
afternoon and evening. A more noticeable upper trough moves into
the region on Thursday. As a result...looking at fairly widespread
showers across the region and have trended the precipitation
probabilities upward on this day. Longer range data fairly
consistent with the upper trough scenario...so the likelihood of
precipitation continues to increase. Temperatures will be warm
enough for the precipitation to be in the form of rain with highs
on Thursday generally in the 50s. Temperatures return to seasonal
normals Friday into Saturday with drier air moving down from
Canada.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
12Z Sunday...Mainly MVFR through Sunday morning though some IFR
cigs expected at KSLK, and cant rule it out at KMPV as a warm
front approaches this evening followed by a cold front overnight.
In addition, a strong low-level jet up to 40 kts at 2000 ft will
lead to some areas of LLWS across the Adirondacks through this
evening.
Expecting scattered showers with the warm front to diminish in
area coverage tonight but again can`t rule out a shower along the
cold front. The front will slow to a crawl just to the south of
the region by Sunday morning so any clearing is unlikely with
MVFR/VFR cigs continuing as another upper level disturbance
approaches Sunday afternoon but not expecting much precipitation
with it.
S-SW winds with some gusts near 20 kt especially in the Champlain
and St. Lawrence Valleys this afternoon and evening will trend
west then northwest 5 to 10 kts overnight and continue Sunday
behind the cold front.
Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...
Sun aft/night: MVFR/IFR trending to MVFR/VFR with an upper trough.
Mon: VFR under high pressure.
Tue: Mainly VFR with chance MVFR showers with a warm front. Gusty S/SW
winds.
Wed: Mainly VFR under weak high pressure.
Wed night/Thu: Mainly MVFR chance of IFR with a cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 226 PM EDT Saturday...Colchester reef sustained in the mid
20s knots gusting near 30 knots this afternoon, and expect those
winds to continue through the evening. Strong winds will end with
the arrival of the cold front around 9 pm in the Champlain Valley.
Behind the front winds will decrease to 20 knots or less from 9 pm
onward. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY continues through this evening.
Waves will be 2 to 4 feet, and lowering below 2 feet tonight.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Hanson/Sisson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Sisson
MARINE...Hanson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
626 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving across the region will bring a cold front
across the area tonight into early Sunday. High pressure will
gradually builds into the region later Sunday through Monday
night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6:25 PM Update...Low pressure just north of the NY/VT border will
move across Maine later this evening and exit into the Maritimes
by morning. Showers are beginning to fill in across the area from
the Katahdin Region north to the Saint John Valley this evening,
and will continue to overspread much of the northern 2/3`s of the
CWA this evening. The showers will exit our eastern zones around
or shortly after midnight. Only some minor tweaks to the ongoing
forecast based on the 6 PM observations and the latest radar and
near term model trends, but all in all the forecast is in fine
shape.
Previous discussion...
Challenge this term will be rainfall amounts.
Low pres was moving toward the region and is forecast to move
across the area overnight. The latest radar loop indicated precip
moving across the region w/the most concentrated area across
central and downeast areas. Another area of rain is showing up in the
northern areas under an area of upper difluence and llvl
convergence. Carried the highest rainfall chances across the
northern 1/2 of the CWA overnight w/pops at 70+% through 11 pm and
then chances drop off. Rainfall totals are expected to be
0.15-0.25 basin average. The latest run of the NAM12 and HRRR
matching well w/the current setup. Temps will be in the 40s for
just about everywhere through the evening and then readings will
drop off after midnight as the associated cold front swings across
the region w/some weak caa. Temps dropping back into the 30s for
the northern and central areas w/downeast seeing around 40 or so.
Some sites back across the n and could be cold enough for snow to
mix w/the leftover shower activity by pre-dawn hrs Sunday.
Sunday will feature quite bit of cloud cover and daytime temps
just below normal for late October. Cyclonic flow w/an upper trof
will lead to some spotty light rain showers during the day w/a
northwest breeze of 10-15 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fairly quiet weather expected this period. An upper trough will
swing across the region Sunday night and there may be just enough
lingering moisture to squeeze out a few showers over the higher
terrain of the north and west. High pressure will then begin to
build over the region Monday, crest over the state Monday night,
and shift east later Tuesday. As such, expect Monday and Monday
night will be dry. Moisture looks to get trapped under the
subsidence inversion on Monday, so have gone a bit more
pessimistic on cloud cover through much of the day and, in fact,
later shifts may even need to increase clouds more as the day
draws nearer. Drier air works in Monday night though, and with the
loss of daytime heating/mixing, skies should clear out in the
evening. Clouds will increase again on Tuesday as our next system
approaches from the west. Any precipitation with this system will
hold off until late in the day, though the Saint John Valley could
see a few showers in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain below
normal through the period; highs will only be in the lower to mid
40s on Monday, perhaps a few degrees warmer on Tuesday with a bit
more sunshine. Cloud cover will keep Sunday night`s temperatures
in the lower and mid 30s, but clearing skies and light winds will
allow Monday night`s lows to be in the 20s in locations away from
the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected through the long term with a
weather system affecting the region every few days. The first
comes through Tuesday night with an upper shortwave crossing
southern Quebec/northern Maine, bringing the threat for mainly
rain showers; a bit of snow may mix in at the higher elevations.
High pressure and dry weather briefly resume Wednesday and
Wednesday night, but then low pressure is progged to move across
central New England Thursday and along the Maine coast/over the
Gulf of Maine Thursday night. This would bring another round of
precipitation, particularly for central and Downeast regions.
Another brief break for Friday, then another stronger shortwave
trough for Saturday. Daytime temperatures will mainly be colder
than seasonal normal, while overnight should be close to normal
owing to cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR w/periods of IFR this evening mainly for the
northern terminals. Expecting the northern terminals to go IFR for
a time tonight w/rain and then it looks like conditions improve to
MVFR for Sunday. KBGR and KBHB will see VFR tonight w/periods of
MVFR and chances of light rain. VFR for KBGR and KBHB for Sunday.
SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions, mainly due to ceilings, are likely
Sunday night as an upper disturbance crosses the region, possibly
producing a few rain or snow showers. Northern terminals have the
best chances of seeing MVFR. VFR conditions will resume by 18-21z
Monday as clouds gradually lift and dissipate through the day. VFR
will prevail thereafter until after 00z Wed when another system
brings precipitation and MVFR conditions. Occasional IFR will be
possible in heavier showers 00z- 12z Wed. The next shot of IFR
arrives after 12z Thursday, this time mainly south, as low
pressure treks along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas and winds have been steadily dropping off this
afternoon and will stay around 10 kts w/seas around 4 ft. As the
front crosses the waters later tonight into early Sunday winds
will pick a bit to 10-15 kts w/some gusts to 20 kts. The latest
SWAN guidance bring wave heights up to around 5 ft especially
over the outer zones. Thinking is that since winds will be
offshore, waves will be down to 4-5 ft for the outer zones and 1-2
ft for the intra-coastal zone.
SHORT TERM: No headlines are anticipated at this time. However, wind
gusts may approach 25 kt on Monday as north winds increase ahead of
high pressure. Subsequent shifts will need to monitor trends to
determine if gusts will exceed 25 kt. The high will crest over the
waters Monday night and Tuesday, causing the winds to subside. Seas
will remain below 5 ft through Tuesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Hewitt/cb
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...Hewitt/Hastings/cb
Marine...Hewitt/Hastings/cb
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
404 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably strong 500 mb ridge over the southern United
States will keep our region on the warm side of normal most of the
coming week. A weak shortwave and cold front will bring some light
rain and a brief cool down Sunday into Monday. Then high heights
and warmer air moves over the region. Later in the week the upper
ridge is forecast to retrograde implying a cold front and cooler
air moving into the region later this week and next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds continue to move across central Pennsylvania this
afternoon with a more continuous cloud deck to the north and west
which has engulfed our northwestern counties. Mostly sunny in the
south.
The strong winds have mixed in many of the western METAR sites but
not at University Park or Middletown to name two. The VWP shows
winds from the west-southwest at 25 to 40kts in the layer from 3
to 10kft. But at the surface may eastern areas have not seen the
20 to 25kt gusts more western sites have had today.
Nearly all the region should be rain free this period. The extreme
northwest could see light rain a few hours either side of sunset.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Guidance still shows some shower activity in the HRRR moving over
western/northwestern areas overnight. Not very organized and not
a very strong signal. The RAP and HRRR show most of the rain in
the northwest before 12-12Z Sunday.
Larger scale models continue to show better organization of rain
as the front moves across the State northwest to southeast. Best
chance morning early afternoon in northwest and late afternoon and
evening in southeast.
Conditions improve everywhere overnight Sunday into Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A brief cool down will occur Monday as NW flow aloft with a
1026mb sfc high will slide across upstate NY and SERN canada.
There is a slight chance for a few morning light showers or
flurries across the mtns NE of KIPT thanks to shallow moisture
streaming SE from Lake Ontario and zero C wet bulb temps within 1
kft agl.
Warmer air floods into the region from the west late Monday night
into the midweek period with generally nothing more than periods
of mid/high-level clouds and maybe a few light showers brushing
the nrn tier of the state Tuesday as a flat shortwave aloft races
ENE across the Lower Great Lakes region.
The warm air advection will bring warmer than normal temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday. That air mass will be short lived as a strong
trough with cold northwesterly flow behind it will propagate
through the region Thursday afternoon. There is some disparity on
the timing. Scattered showers are possible Thursday afternoon.
After that frontal band quickly moves through the models diverge
on a solution.
Overall, the upcoming week will be milder than normal and
reasonably quiet with 7 day QPF likely under 0.25...and almost
definitely under 0.50 inch in all areas.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail for the remainder of the day.
Clouds will streak by central areas and continue to thicken and
lower in the northwest closer to the approaching frontal system.
There are and will be gusty winds in the western and northwestern
areas. In the east these winds have not mixed down. Tried to show
this potential in the southeast for some gusty winds later this
afternoon. But 2-4kft aloft the winds are in the 20-30 kt range
from the west-southwest.
Overnight areas MVFR and IFR will develop related to some ground
fog in the south and east and the onset of showers and some areas
of low clouds and drizzle in the northwest.
Areas of IFR and MVFR Sunday as the rain moves west to east across
the State Sunday.
Outlook...
Sun...Showers/low cigs possible, mainly KBFD/KJST early KMDT
late.
Mon...AM fog possible, mainly NW PA.
Tue-Wed...No sig wx expected.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Grumm
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Ceru
AVIATION...Grumm
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
319 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
A weak cold front will push southward through Michigan by Sunday
morning resulting in rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
An area of high pressure then moves in for Sunday and Monday
resulting in mainly dry weather. Monday night through Tuesday might
see some rain return to the area, but the system responsible will be
far to the north and confidence is low. Temperatures will be above
normal through the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
A weak cold front will pass to the south of Michigan by Sunday
morning. Looking at a good chance of rain tonight into Sunday, and
some thunder is also possible along and south of the Interstate 94
corridor due to elevated instability. The instability will move out
of the area early Sunday morning, so thunder will not continue into
the day Sunday.
With mainly zonal flow aloft into the work week, expecting the cold
Canadian air will remain north of Michigan and temperatures will
remain above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
The main system of note in the extended forecast period will arrive
Wednesday. A good chance for rain exists with thunderstorms possible
as well. Once this system clears the region no significant weather
is expected.
Models are in general agreement about passing the upper level jet
core to our north on Tuesday, keeping the mid level shortwave trough
away from our region and essentially designating the sfc low across
the northern Great Lakes as a non-player for SW Lower MI outside of
maybe an isolated shower across central Lower MI. However, the right
entrance region of the upper level jet approaches Lower MI Wednesday
with upper level divergence moving in Wednesday evening.
The ECMWF and GFS are similar in bringing a postively tilted H500
shortwave trough into the region late Wednesday/early Thursday, with
the GEM aggressively digging this feature and even closing off an
upper low over the northern Lakes by Thursday with much lower
heights than the other models. The trend with this system will need
to be watched as any intensification in the upper levels would
likely slow this system down.
A LLJ of 30-35 kts is shown by the models (exception: GEM with 40-50
kts), wrapping around the periphery of a strong upper level ridge
across the SE United States. At the surface, a warm front will
attempt to push through the region. This would be more likely if the
system trends stronger. How far north this front gets would dictate
how unstable the atmosphere becomes, though we may end up capped.
Too early to say. MUCAPE by the ECMWF and GFS is not significant,
with the greatest instability near and south of Chicago. At this
point more rain than thunderstorms is expected, but again that could
change.
Temperatures will start off well above normal by 10 to 15 degrees on
Tuesday and Wednesday especially for southern Lower MI...and even
with a cool down for the end of the week it appears near to slightly
above normal readings are likely.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Main concern for this TAF period will be watching to see if cigs will
yield IFR especially near and south of GRR-LAN. Stratocu is fairly
uniform across the region ahead of a cold front that will sag
south. RAP model RH at 975mb is shown to increase a fair amount
ahead of this front between 21z and 03z. The question is will cigs
drop to below 1000ft. A high resolution model blend suggests the
clouds may not get that low along the front, and in fact the same
model blend was too pessimistic with the cigs for the late
morning/early afternoon period today. No IFR in the forecast at
this time but conditions need to be monitored.
Better threat for near-IFR exists mainly south of a GRR-LAN line
during the early morning period as showers increase. Trended the
cigs closer to IFR for some of those TAF sites. GFS LAMP guidance
supports this notion though have not gone as low as that guidance
is indicating just yet.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
The winds on Lake Michigan will continue to diminish and this
will allow the waves to do the same through the night. Headlines
may be required once again for Monday, as stronger warm air
advection returns to the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
Streamflows are running well above normal for late October,
especially in the Grand River basin, but still remain within their
banks. A tenth to quarter inch of rain is expected across the area
by Sunday morning, but rivers should be able to handle this. Concern
for above-bankfull rises would begin for any basins that receive
over a half inch, but this is not a probable scenario. Holt, Maple
Rapids, Eagle, and Ionia would be the most susceptible forecast
points to approach bankfull.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...63
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...Hoving
AVIATION...Hoving
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...63
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
316 PM EDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will track across
Quebec tonight. This low will drag a trailing cold front across
the region Sunday and move to the south of our area by Sunday
evening while another weak low travels along it. High pressure
will build in from the west Monday. Low pressure will pass by well
to our north midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak area of warm air advection aloft will continue the light
showers into the early evening over most areas and then being
confined to mainly the mountains later tonight as a more westerly
flow sets up. Started off by using current pops off radar and then
combined extrapolation and HRRR into the early evening.
Downsloping winds should limit any showers to the mountains later
tonight. Used a blend of guidance for overnight lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front associated with an upper trough moves through the
area Sunday afternoon. This will cause some scattered -shra in
the mountains but downslope areas should remain dry as winds shift
to the northwest. By late in the afternoon the cold front should
be south of the area but a weak wave of low pressure may form
along it over central New England, as models try to hint
at...this may cause a few showers over southern areas of NH/ME later
in the day or early evening. By later in the evening the surface
and upper system quickly exit to the east allowing clearing and
colder weather to move into the area as Canadian high pressure
builds into the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The period starts Mon with a compact...seasonably strong s/wv trof
crossing the area. This will usher in below normal mid level temps
across the area. This will translate to breezy and slightly below
normal afternoon highs Mon. High pressure quickly builds in Mon
night...and will allow for strong radiational cooling. MOS
guidance seems to have a fair handle on it at this range...so
blended the forecast heavily in the direction of the cooler
MAV/MET.
High pressure holds over Ern parts of the forecast area thru
midweek...in response to building heights over the SErn CONUS.
This will deflect another s/wv N into Canada Tue. The trailing
cold front may brush Nrn zones...with some upslope showers
possible along the favored Wrn slopes. After midweek...SErn CONUS
ridging will retrograde towards the middle of the country. This
leaves more room for the next s/wv to dig a little more across the
East Coast. This wave will send a cold front across the area
likely bringing an end to a decent stretch of mild wx for late
Oct/early Nov. Ensemble guidance favors East Coast trofing heading
into next weekend...with at or below normal temps most likely.
Despite a fairly active pattern...the system will be moisture
starved...and ensemble QPF for the period looks to average below
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through Sunday/...Variable conditions to IFR/MVFR in
-shra into this evening otherwise VFR elsewhere. By 04z most
conditions mainly VFR except MVFR in any -shra in the mountains.
VFR Sunday into Sunday night with sct MVFR in sct -shra mainly
confined to the mountains.
Long Term...Mainly VFR expected for the first half of the work
week. High pressure will be in control for most terminals. A s/wv
trof passing N of the area Tue will bring the possibility of MVFR
or lower CIGS to HIE...and either SHRA or SHSN depending on the
time of day.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday night/...Winds will be light tonight
although seas over the outer waters will range from 4-6 ft at
times based on guidance so will continue a SCA due to seas until
10z. Winds to become west and then northwest behind a cold front
that moves through in the afternoon. Winds and seas should both
remain SCA levels Sunday and Sunday night since not much of a
gradient wind behind the cold front.
Long Term...High pressure will be in control of the waters into
midweek. A cold front crossing the waters late in the week may
bring winds and seas above SCA thresholds.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
Marine/Legro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT Sat Oct 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system will bring some passing showers tonight. A wetter
and windier system arrives late Sunday into Monday with steady
rains tapering off to showers Monday evening. The unsettled
pattern will continue at times through next week with near
to above normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Sunday...A low near Vancouver Island will result in an
occluded front tracking across Eastern Washington into the
Panhandle through this evening. The front has already cleared most
of Central Washington where dry conditions are favored through the
night. This is based off the 12z GFS which has a had the best
handle on this system. The GFS brings in a slug of mid level dry
air behind the front into Central and NE Washington tonight which
should result in dry conditions once rain exits the area. This is
not a done deal however with the Canadian and HRRR bringing up
another weak wave from the south overnight bringing another period
of light rain mainly from the basin stretching northeast through
Spokane and the Idaho Panhandle. However again with the GFS having
the best handle on things now forecast favors this wave fizzling
out as it moves north as a brief and weak short wave ridge moves
over the area ahead of the next system. This system will begin to
spread an increase chance for rain late Sunday afternoon
especially near the Cascades and SE Washington.
An abundance of low clouds as well as patchy fog is expected once
again tonight into Sunday morning with a continued very moist
boundary layer and light winds. JW
Sunday night through Tuesday: The upcoming work week will start off
wet and windy as the Pacific jet continues to feed moisture and
storm systems into the Northwest. The wettest and windiest system
will accompany the area of low pressure currently located off the
California Coast. Steady, widespread rain will move into the
region Sunday night into Monday morning before transitioning into
showers Monday afternoon and evening. Precipitation amounts will
be lower in Central WA, generally less than a quarter of an inch
except on the immediate Cascade Crest. Heavier rainfall amounts
will occur in Idaho and into Eastern Washington east of a line
from Colville to Ritzville. There is still some uncertainty
regarding exact amounts but the potential is there for periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall and amounts in excess of one inch. The
main lift with the system will impact the region Sunday night into
Monday morning...then precipitation will transition toward showers
Monday morning and continue into the evening with the most persist
activity across the mountains of NE WA and N ID. Winds will become
quite gusty from the southwest. Between 10AM-noon, sustained winds
look to increase to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. The windiest
locations will be across the eastern Columbia Basin, Palouse, and
foothills of the Blue Mountains and this will need to be monitored
closely for potential low-end wind advisory highlights. The
current month`s rainfall and state of the ground saturation should
be considered in this decision. Showers will continue across the
region Monday night and Tuesday as several smaller waves pass
through the area but details regarding timing and location of
these features is low and our highest confidence will remain in
the mountains of NE WA, N ID, and along the Cascade Crest. This is
where we will find the highest risk for showers Monday evening
during trick or treat festivities but the presence of smaller
scale disturbances adds some degree of uncertainty for the Basin
and remaining low lands as well. /sb
Tuesday night through Saturday...Longwave trof positioned off the
coast with west ridging continues a progressive
weather pattern that allows numerous weather systems to take a warm
southwest to northeast trajectory of approach and exit over Eastern
Washington and Northern Idaho. Unfortunately model timing
differences on the order of 6 to 12 hours between weather system
passages makes it difficult to delineate the brief dry intervals
from the wet and unsettled ones. To address this timing difference
of the three to five weather disturbances expected to pass overhead
or in the vicinity of Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho pops
remain generally in the low chance to slight chance range. The warm
storm trajectory allows for forecast temperatures to remain on the
warm side of climo with snow levels remaining high (generally above
5000 feet MSL) with overnight lows temperatures continuing to remain
above freezing in valley locations (and most mountain locations as
well). /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Areas of stratus this morning over the northern valleys
and Idaho Panhandle should remain clear of the TAF sites this
afternoon with KCOE expected to become VFR by 19z. An area of
moderate showers that has now moved north of KEAT has moistened
the boundary layer so confident is low for KEAT this afternoon but
with prevailing CIGS now around 4k feet opted to keep conditions
VFR. Attention then turns to a batch of rain over northern Oregon
that will move up into the eastern TAF sites this afternoon and
evening. CIGS will lower as rain develops with an abundance of
stratus expected across the region tonight as the rain ends with a
very moist boundary layer in its wake. Confidence is low with
precise CIGS/Visibilities tonight with models have a hard time
handling the precise details with the incoming band of rain. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 52 44 51 39 49 / 50 30 90 50 30 40
Coeur d`Alene 42 53 43 49 40 49 / 80 30 100 70 40 40
Pullman 44 55 44 52 41 53 / 70 40 100 40 40 30
Lewiston 46 58 46 56 44 58 / 90 60 90 30 30 30
Colville 43 51 42 46 37 49 / 40 20 90 60 30 40
Sandpoint 43 50 42 45 37 45 / 80 20 100 70 40 50
Kellogg 40 52 41 44 37 44 / 100 40 100 70 50 40
Moses Lake 40 53 44 55 39 56 / 10 50 80 30 20 30
Wenatchee 42 50 42 53 40 53 / 10 60 70 30 10 30
Omak 42 51 41 49 38 53 / 20 20 60 30 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$