Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/28/16


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1015 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 Forecast is on track, thus just blended observations to hourly grids for this update. UPDATE Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 High res near term models backed off on fog a bit for tonight, though will stay the course for now and maintain patchy fog as inherited over my east and north central. Models trending to be more favorable for fog development across the western Devils Lake Basin, Turtle Mountains, and then across portions of the Souris River Basin, where T/Td spreads are currently low. Already see vis restrictions over northeastern ND. The James River Valley will see the best potential for fog through 08-10Z before winds turn more west/southwesterly. Remainder of the forecast remains on track, relatively mild night with BKN-OVC upper level clouds && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 Concerns for the short term include fog across portions of the east tonight. At 2 pm CDT a warm front extended from low pressure centered in southern Saskatchewan through central North Dakota with a cold front entering central Montana. The HRRR and RAP models show the cool moist boundary layer air remaining in place this evening across east central North Dakota. Areas of fog and stratus are just breaking up in the afternoon mixing with the models forecasting a return of the clouds and fog this evening. Some uncertainty as the NAM/GFS not as certain on fog but will add patchy fog and clouds in the evening and early overnight east. Lows tonight will be relatively mild in the 40s due to the general cloudiness. On Friday the cold front will move through bringing northwest winds and cooler air. This will also add some clouds with cooling northwest , Highs will be in the 50s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 The extended will remain mildly progressive through the period beginning with a series of shortwave troughs Saturday with another Sunday into Monday. A long wave eastern Pacific trough will move onshore pushing the ridge east and eventually trending toward a split flow aloft by Wednesday and Thursday. The chance for showers on Saturday will be across the far south with cooler air moving through the region. A better chance for showers will be Sunday night and Monday with the next shortwave. Temperatures should be mild enough for rain showers although a rain/snow mix may be possible far northwest Monday morning. Dry and seasonable weather the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 Main concern for the TAFs focus on possible MVFR/IFR at KJMS as low level clouds and fog are forecast to possibly redevelop tonight. KMOT may also see some patchy fog. Otherwise vfr at all other TAF sites through the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
854 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .UPDATE... No significant updates to the forecast this evening. Just added some light shower PoP`s to area around Melstone in Musselshell and northern Rosebud counties per current radar. I do not expect much progression with it. BT && .SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat... Livingston has gusted over 50 mph fairly often today, with a peak of 59 mph noted around noon at the western DOT station. This a result of gap flow modified by mixing into increasing southwesterly mid level flow. RAP shows mountain top winds increasing to 50 kts early this evening, so would expect 50+ mph gusts to continue for a while longer, with pressure rises from the west arriving around 03z likely to signal the start of a decreasing trend. Have issued a wx story to highlight gusty cross winds on I-90 at Livingston into this evening. Water vapor imagery shows moist southwest flow over the western CONUS with a split upper trof off the coast. It should be noted that moisture is being aided by the remnants of Hurricane Seymour, and pwats are expected to rise to around 0.75 inches in our region by tomorrow, an impressive number for late October. Energy off the coast of the Pacific NW will flatten the ridge tonight and allow for cooler Canadian air to advect into our cwa. Expect highs back to the 50s to mid 60s tomorrow, warmest in our southeast. Southern split shortwave currently off the CA coast will lift through the great basin tomorrow and bring a period of ascent in our cwa into early Saturday. This will coincide with deepened upslope winds as Canadian high pressure settles over the northern high plains. Model spread remains high regarding the exact track of this trof and mid level frontogenesis, with latest GFS/NAM showing a more southern track, while the ECMWF is further north and affects more of our cwa. Will keep forecast as a consensus between these two possible solutions, raising pops across our south and lowering them a bit in our north, as even the EC shows strongest frontogenesis along the MT/WY border. Though this system will not be overly dynamic, moisture content will be enough to yield over a half inch of precipitation over our southern high terrain/upslope areas. Snow will accumulate to several inches above 8000 ft, but model wet bulb zero heights down to 6500 ft suggest a mix with wet snow could occur over the slopes just above Red Lodge and Story. Otherwise this is a mild system and will bring only rain to the lower elevations. Precipitation will taper off from west to east Saturday morning. Mostly dry conditions will prevail Saturday afternoon. Our western mountains may see more rain/snow showers by Saturday night as next Pacific shortwave approaches. Temps on Saturday will be the coolest we have seen in quite awhile, maybe two weeks, with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the lower elevations as lee side surface high is slow to exit. Will continue to highlight Friday night precipitation in our weather story. Hunters should take note of this upcoming period of wet and cooler weather. JKL .LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu... GFS/GEFS showed increasing model disparities with the pattern beginning on Monday. The ECMWF ensembles did not show much disagreement, however, the deterministic GFS and ECMWF were in poor agreement with the pattern beginning on Tuesday. Kept changes minimal to the forecast beginning on Tuesday due to the above. The uncertainty in the models could be a result of Hurricane Seymour getting into the model initializations. Upper ridging will be over the forecast area on Sunday, but energy from the next Pacific system will ride through the ridge, as well as moisture into the western zones. Continue the slight chance to chance PoPs from KBIL W per the previous forecast with the highest PoPs in the far W. Noted LI`s fell to -2 deg/c on the GFS, but soundings did not look like they would support thunder. It will be warm with temperatures in the 60s across the area. The Pacific energy moves into N WY/S MT Sun. night along with good moisture. Models develop a strong surface low over NE WY/W SD by 12Z Monday with decent QPF wrapping around the low into the area. Thus have raised PoPs all areas to high chance/likely, except over SE MT where models forecasted a dry slot. A few inches of snow are possible over the western mountains. Energy lingers over the area on Monday, as moisture gradually lessens from W to E. Raised PoPs for this period as well. Expect a cooler day with highs around normal. Monday night looks drier with chances of precipitation confined to the mountains. The model disagreement begins when the GFS brings a shortwave through the area on Tuesday, while the ECMWF has upper ridging. Both models were generally dry. An upper ridge develops on the GFS for Wednesday while the ECMWF has an elongated trough from MT to the four-corners region. Differences continued through Thursday. Despite the differences, models were dry Wed. and Thursday. Model blends kept temperatures near normal through the period. Arthur && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail over the area through tonight. LLWS expected over southeast MT overnight tonight, affecting KMLS, KBHK, and K4BQ. Gusty SW surface winds with gusts to 40 kt will occur over KLVM through around 09Z Friday, when a cold front will move through the area causing winds to decrease somewhat. Chance for rain will increase over the area from W to E through the day on Friday. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with the rain in KLVM with possible MVFR in KBIL/KSHR. Expect areas of mountain obscuration beginning late tonight and increasing on Friday. RMS/BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051/059 040/053 041/064 044/056 037/054 034/055 037/058 04/R 62/R 12/W 54/W 11/B 11/B 11/B LVM 049/057 038/055 042/061 041/054 035/052 034/055 037/057 25/R 72/R 24/W 55/W 11/B 11/B 11/B HDN 046/062 040/055 037/067 042/056 035/056 033/056 034/059 03/R 63/R 11/B 54/W 11/B 11/B 11/U MLS 047/062 039/052 038/063 043/052 035/055 032/053 033/056 02/R 32/R 11/B 45/W 11/B 11/B 11/B 4BQ 048/065 039/052 038/069 043/055 034/057 031/056 033/059 02/R 75/R 00/B 44/W 11/B 11/U 11/U BHK 046/063 036/048 034/062 040/049 032/053 029/052 030/055 01/B 22/R 01/B 35/W 11/B 11/B 11/U SHR 046/064 037/054 036/067 039/055 031/055 029/057 031/059 03/R 75/R 01/B 43/W 11/B 11/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
525 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1217 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016 18Z water vapor imagery and RUC analysis indicated large 592 dm H5 ridge in places across southern NM and TX. At the sfc...diffuse trough axis was present across western CWA...separating area of rather light westerly winds and stronger southwesterly flow. H5 ridge over the area will be dominant weather feature through tomorrow leading to dry conditions and passing high clouds through the period. Main forecast impact through tomorrow will be how dry things get each afternoon and resulting fire wx impacts. Sfc observations,satellite soundings and DNR 12z raob all indicate very dry air to the west of the area which will gradually drift into area overnight. With afternoon mixing would not be shocked to see dewpoints in the west fall into the lower 20s at some point. This will drive humidities into the critical fire wx range, but as was the case today winds will not be located with the driest air and as a result to not expect critical fire wx conditions to .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 227 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016 The overall pattern looks fairly quiet over the weekend into early next week as the current upper high over southern Rockies gradually flattens out over the weekend. A weak cold front will slide through the area dry on Saturday dropping temperatures from unseasonably warm 80s back into the 70s which is still a good 10-15 degrees above normal. After that, a series of weak short wave troughs aloft eject out of the West Coast trough and move over the central-northern Plains. This will bring another weak cold front south, cooling temperatures back into the 60s Tue-Wed. The next chance of precipitation looks to be at the end of the forecast period from Wed night into Friday as a good chunk of energy moves over the Rockies and into the Plains. Main problem is the system that the models bring in is currently somewhere over the dateline and likely not sampled well. Thus, model solutions diverge quite a bit and confidence is low in the timing, location and amount of any precip. Lowered pops from the init in that time frame after collaborating with neighbors. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 523 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016 VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. South winds will gradually turn to the west and northwest ahead of a surface trough that will move through Friday. Northerly winds behind the trough will gradually turn back to the south by late afternoon. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...DLF AVIATION...JTL
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1018 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below. && .UPDATE...Upper air analysis this evening shows trof pivoting eastward across the northeast US and Appalachians with mid-level ridge building from the Baja to across Texas. With the upper trof axis having passed the area, so goes what appears to be the final chance of showers for the remainder of the month as an upper ridge builds over the central Gulf coast over the next few days. With that being said, October 2016 is poised to rank at the top of the climatological record for Mobile and Evergreen as the driest. Pensacola will likely come in as the 4th driest. Drought conditions have worsened, becoming moderately to severely dry over the area with rainfall over the past 30 days trending 3 to 6 inches below normal. Unfortunately, latest long term climatological outlooks heading into the month of the November are not promising much in the way of relief. A large area of below normal precipitation is outlooked across the entire southern US from California to Florida and the Mid-Atlantic. /10 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 00Z issuance...VFR conditions forecast this evening. Patchy late night fog development possible which could lower vsby at MVFR levels by and after 28.09Z. Light to calm winds overnight. /10 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...A weak shortwave trough moving from northern AL into northern GA continues to dampen early this afternoon, while an upper level ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains states slowly continues to build eastward toward the Mississippi Valley region. Deep layer moisture ahead of the shortwave trough axis remains very meager across our forecast area this afternoon, and regional radar imagery shows no precipitation developing in our area as of 3 PM CDT. This trend places us on track to have zero rainfall at the Mobile Regional Airport and a trace at Pensacola International Airport for the month of October. See the Climatology section below for additional details. There is little change to the overall forecast reasoning through the next 24 hours. The upper level ridge of high pressure will remain centered over Texas through Friday afternoon, with the associated ridge axis expected to gradually build eastward toward the Gulf Coast region into Friday. Deep layer subsidence and dry air will support keeping a dry forecast tonight and Friday. Decreasing cloud cover and very shallow moisture profiles will favor potential for at least some patchy fog development late tonight and early Friday morning, particularly over southeast MS where the latest SREF and HRRR are indicating potential for some locally dense fog. Later shifts will monitor trends. Otherwise, we expect lows tonight to range from the mid 50s to around 60 over interior areas to the lower to mid 60s near the coast. Highs Friday are forecast to range from the mid to upper 80s over inland locations, and in the lower 80s near the immediate coast and beaches. /21 SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...Strong upper level ridging over the Great Plains will become more zonal into the weekend before redeveloping late Sunday into early Monday as a series of low pressure systems dig from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific northwest. At the surface, high pressure currently situated over the lower Ohio River Valley will drift south into the southeast U.S. into the weekend. Thus, strong subsidence over the region will continue our pattern of dry weather and above seasonal temps. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s inland and around 80 along the coast this weekend. Overnight lows will dip into the mid to upper 50s inland to around 60 near the coast each night. /49 LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Upper level ridging builds back into the eastern CONUS early to mid next week as a large region of high pressure develops over the Florida peninsula and drifts west across the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface will build from the mid-Atlantic coast southwest into the central Gulf states. With this pattern, can expect to see a redevelopment of weak onshore surface flow by early to mid next week. However, it doesn`t look like moisture return will be sufficient enough to warrant including any long term POPs...especially given the continued strong mid and upper level subsidence over the forecast area. Expect daytime highs to run above seasonal next week, with temps reaching the mid 80s inland and low 80s near the coast each afternoon. Overnight lows will range from mid to upper 50s inland to around 60 near the coast each night. /49 MARINE...A surface ridge of high pressure will continue to extend across the Southeast states and the Central Gulf Coast region through early next week. This pattern will support a light to moderate northeast to east flow at night, and light to moderate east to southeast during the day through the period. Seas will continue to range from 3 to 5 feet well offshore through the weekend before gradually subsiding into early next week. /21 CLIMATOLOGY...Our meteorologists have taken a closer look at the climatology records for Mobile and Pensacola and have determined that Mobile has officially only recorded one October with 0.00" precipitation in 1874. There was a trace of precipitation recorded at Mobile in October 1978. It is looking very likely that Mobile will end the month of October 2016 with 0.00" For Pensacola, there has only been a trace of precipitation recorded this month. A trace of precipitation for the month of October was last recorded at Pensacola in 1971. There have been 3 recorded years of 0.00" October precipitation at Pensacola: 1952, 1963, and 1978. Pensacola will likely end this month with only a trace of precipitation. 34/21 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
630 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .UPDATE...For 00z Aviation discussion below && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 Main concern in the near term is timing of any clearing across the region tonight and how warm to go Friday afternoon. Pesky narrow band of light showers/sprinkles exiting west central WIsconsin late this afternoon. It should remain dry the remainder of the period. Lower clouds remain over most of the CWA this afternoon...as moist lower level southeast/south flow continues. Still anticipate overall lower cloud clearing trend to occur during the night. Latest RAP showing lower level relative humidity clearing to the northeast...along and north of I94 through about 07z. Slower to clear into western Wisconsin. Southerly winds will remain up overnight...so this will preclude significant fog from forming. Did mention some patchy fog to the far east...where winds will be lightest. Warming ahead of the incoming cold front should warm temperatures into at least the lower 70s to the southwest...record for MSP is 75 in 1948...with mid/upper 60s common elsewhere. The front will contain a fair amount of high clouds...but we expect the lower clouds to gradually break up over the far eastern areas into Friday morning. They may return in the afternoon with the approach of the cold front and lower level begin to saturate again. Will likely see some wind gusts around 30 mph into the afternoon...mainly into south central MN as the gradient tightens vicinity of the front. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 A progressive weather pattern will set through next week with several upper level waves brining areas of surface high pressure and low pressure though the region. This will bring windy conditions across the Upper Midwest. The best chance for rain will be Saturday afternoon across central MN/WI, and again on Monday across northern MN/WI. At this time no heavy precipitation is expected. On Friday night a cold front will move through the region. H850 temperatures at forecast to go from 15C to around 0C between 00Z Saturday and 00Z Sunday. This cold air advection will keep the boundary layer mixed and Saturday will be cool and blustery with northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph. An Upper Level shortwave will skirt west to east across the region and lead to mid level clouds along with some light rain, but accumulations should only be around a tenth of an inch or less since this system will be weakening, not strengthening. Sunday will be the nicer day of the two this weekend as high pressure builds across the region and then tracks eastward during the day. Therefore expect light winds to start off the day, but then a warm southerly breeze will ensue during the afternoon. Monday winds will increase once again, and in fact will likely end up higher than currently forecast, especially if there is some sun in the warm sector across southern MN. Most of the precipitation will stay north of I-94 on Monday. Looking ahead, a cold front will push well south of the area Monday night, but there is not much temperature advection. The rain will be focused along this frontal boundary while high pressure brings dry weather for the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 The pesky deck of low clouds failed to erode for the most part this afternoon. Therefore think the more pessimistic scenario for tonight is the most likely to occur, despite the clearing that some of the guidance continues to show. Have leaned toward the hi- res models and what would normally happen climatologically- speaking in this type of scenario. Have included low-end MVFR cigs through the overnight hours (with the exception of KRWF), with reduction to IFR cigs at northern/eastern sites. Could also see some vsby reductions of the MVFR variety, but that to some extent depends on what happens with the cloud cover. If we do stay clouded in overnight, expect we would see scattering out during the late morning hours Friday about the time we see the increase in south/southwest winds, with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Expect gusts to between 20 and 25 kts to develop by the afternoon hours. KMSP... Confidence is low, but right now the more likely scenario is for the site to stay clouded in with sub-1700 ft cigs through the morning push. Anticipate scattering to VFR around 16z when southerly winds also begin gusting to around 20kts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat...VFR with MVFR/SHRA possible. Wind NNW at 5-10 kts. Sun...VFR. Wind SSE 5 kts. Mon...VFR. Wind S 15g25 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...LS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
632 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 Early-afternoon water vapor imagery revealed a mid-level ridge edging east from the Rockies into adjacent High Plains, downstream from a trough approaching the Pacific Coast. In the low levels, a lee trough was deepening over the High Plains as of 18z with a diffuse warm front that stretched from central South Dakota into eastern parts of Nebraska and Kansas. The warm front will gradually shift east/northeast tonight in concert with a migratory cyclone tracking across North Dakota. Some vertical mixing associated with a nocturnal LLJ will promote stronger surface winds than last night, which should limit the potential for widespread fog development. Model guidance does does hint at some fog formation late tonight/early Friday over southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa where surface winds will be a bit lighter. Friday, the mid-level ridge over the north-central U.S. will be temporarily dampened by a short-wave trough translating along the International Border. This disturbance will be associated with a surface cold front which will advance southeast into the mid Missouri Valley. Since this boundary will not reach northeast Nebraska until afternoon, seasonably warm temperatures and breezy conditions are expected across much of the forecast area. Currently, we are forecasting highs in the lower 80s which will be close to the record values of 84, 84, and 85 at Omaha, Lincoln, and Norfolk, respectively. The cold front will move slowly south through the area Friday night and Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 70s Saturday afternoon over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. We will see cooler temperatures areawide on Sunday as the cold front stalls across Kansas and Missouri. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 Monday and Tuesday, 12z medium-range guidance is now in much better agreement in the timing and amplitude of a short-wave trough which will translate from the northern High Plains into upper Great Lakes. The associated surface low will pass to our north with the trailing cold front moving into the mid Missouri Valley on Monday, before stalling over eastern Kansas and western Missouri Tuesday. Ahead of the front, well-above-normal temperatures and gusty winds are expected with cooler conditions anticipated by Tuesday. The stalled surface front may lift north into the area toward the middle of the upcoming work week as southerly low-level winds strengthen ahead of an upper trough moving through the Interior West. This pattern evolution will support an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Tuesday night to Thursday time frame. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 VFR conditions through the period. The better chance for fog will be south of the TAF sites. The NAM has quite a bit of fog possibly due to the higher dewpoint return, however the RAP does not. Expect the stronger winds aloft to hinder fog development at KOMA/KLNK/OFK. Included low level wind shear this evening into Friday morning. Gusty southwest winds are forecast 15 to 25kts Friday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mead LONG TERM...Mead AVIATION...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1007 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will settle south into NC late tonight through early Fri. High pressure will follow and extend across the Carolinas through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 1000 PM Thursday... 00Z RAOB and VWP data across the Carolinas this evening depict pronounced veering of the wind in the lowest 500 mb, and implied WAA and contribution to QG forcing for ascent. This WAA regime is occurring on the SRN periphery of a pronounced shortwave trough moving E across far SERN Ontario, whose focused height falls aloft will continue to pass well N of central NC. Within the WAA regime, a narrow ribbon of low-mid level moisture and associated transport, capped above by an inversion around 12 k ft, and sampled well by both the RNK and GSO RAOBs, will progress steadily E across central NC during the next several hours, then offshore by 12Z. This moist axis will maintain a chance of a few (widely scattered) showers over the NE Piedmont and Coastal Plain through around 06Z, with dry conditions otherwise and elsewhere. Since the surface cold front accompanying the aforementioned shortwave trough remained along and west of the Appalachians from ERN WV to ERN TN and NRN AL at 02Z --and it will likely not settle into even the NRN NC Piedmont until around daybreak-- it will be a relatively mild night. Lows mainly in the middle 50s to lower 60s. A steady light SSW surface wind will limit the potential for fog development tonight, despite otherwise favorable conditions that include clearing behind the aforementioned low-mid level moist axis and seasonably high pre-frontal surface dewpoints around 60 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Thursday... In the wake of the trough crossing the area today, the cold front will settle south into SC as brief cold advection pushes thicknesses down to around 1360. This will offset what is otherwise full heating with high pressure building across the central Appalachians. Prefer a blend of MOS values here - 69 to 76 from northeast to southwest. High pressure will settle overhead Friday night, yielding optimal radiational cooling conditions. Most of the blended guidance looks a little too warm given thicknesses and cooling potential, so will opt for MOS values here as well - 44 to 49. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM Thursday... Primary storm track will follow the main belt of westerlies that will shift northward along the US/Canada border as upper level ridge over the Central Plains expands eastward into the Southeast US. This will favor a continuation of dry conditions with temperatures well-above normal, averaging a good 7 to 12 degrees above normal through next week, potentially peaking Sunday with the potential for near record warmth in the lower to mid 80s possible in advance of a dry and weak back-door cold front late Sunday night. After a brief cool down to more seasonable temps on Monday, temperatures will quickly warm back into the mid 70s to lower 80s by Wednesday. Significant discrepancies begin to show up in both the probabilistic and deterministic model guidance late next week, with the GFS retrograding the upper level ridge far enough west to allow a back- door cold front to push south into the area late Thursday, while the ECMWF keeps the upper ridge in place over the region and keeps the front north of the area. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday through Tuesday/... As of 815 PM Thursday... VFR conditions will dominate for the next several hours and into the overnight hours at all sites, although a period of sub-VFR conditions is possible 08z-12z. A band of showers currently crossing northern portions of the forecast area may bring a brief shower to RDU/RWI through 04z, although cigs and vsbys should remain mostly VFR. Winds will remain light from the SW at speeds under 7 kts through much of the night, ahead of a cold front dropping into the area from the NW. Lingering low level moisture and light winds ahead of this front will bring about a chance for IFR vsbys and low shallow stratus late tonight. Models are quite variable in depicting any such sub-VFR conditions, leading to lower than usual confidence. The GFS favors late-night/early-morning stratus/fog at RDU/RWI, while the HRRR hints at such conditions confined to the INT/GSO areas, and the NAM indicates just MVFR fog at all locations. Based on the steady stream of mid and high clouds heading into the area from the WNW which could inhibit radiational cooling and limit fog development, will lean toward the HRRR, with IFR conditions restricted to INT/GSO, as the front is only expected to drop into the VA border counties toward daybreak. All clouds will clear out Fri morning, with VFR conditions highly likely thereafter, and surface winds becoming light from the north as the front drops through. Looking beyond 18z Fri, high pressure will build in Fri through Sun, leading to a high confidence in VFR conditions and light surface winds, although there is a small chance of shallow fog Sat and Sun mornings near dawn, especially near bodies of water. A weak front will drop through late Sun night/Mon morning, which may bring a period of MVFR cigs Mon into Mon night, but this risk appears low at this time. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Hartfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
309 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 The main impactful weather concerns for today are on breezy southerly winds that could gust to around 35 mph at times in open areas. Focus then turns to rain chances late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Breezy south to southwest winds develop across the region today in response to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. The main question for today is how deeply will we mix. This will have a direct impact on how windy and warm we may get today. RAP and NAM Forecast soundings across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and portions of southwest Wisconsin suggest we will mix to just above 950 mb, maybe as deep as 925 mb. This should result in high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 60s, and possibly to around 70 in southern areas. It will really depend on how much sunshine is seen today. It appears areas along and west of the Mississippi River will see some filtered sunshine at times through high clouds. Sustained winds today will likely be in the 18 to 23 mph range, with gusts to around 35 mph possible in the open areas of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. If we mix just a little deeper, closer to 925 mb, we could see a few gusts closer to 40 mph. Further to the northeast across central into northern Wisconsin, thicker cloud cover should limit mixing and keep high temperatures in the lower 60s, still very pleasant for this time of year. The surface front edges across the area late tonight into Saturday morning and looks to stall out across portions of central Iowa through northern Illinois. Winds will switch to the north in the wake of the front but will be on the light side. Considerable cloudiness will linger across the area in the wake of the front. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 A shortwave trough will slide through the region late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and interact with the front. Frontogenesis looks to increase across the region mainly in the 900 to 600 mb layer. This will result in a period of light rain, but the concern is exactly where. Forecast models paint light rain across much of the forecast area. The NAM is showing more concentrated area of light rain positioned mainly along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor. The GFS shows a broader swath of rain and meanders it south across the region. The bottom line is that all of the models are indicating rain across much of the area, it`s really a matter of where the best frontogenesis zone sets up for a more concentrated band of light rain. Forecast models have slowed the arrival of the rain down slightly and has shifted the axis of rain slightly south. Will lean toward a model consensus blend for rain chances but if trends continue we will likely need to increase these chances along and south of Interstate 90. After a quiet day on Sunday, another windy and potentially milder day is in store for the region on Monday. Again, cloud cover and how deeply we can mix will be a big player in wind speeds and high temperatures. There is the potential for some light rain across far northern Wisconsin on Monday as a shortwave trough moves in from the northern plains. Temperatures then remain on the milder side for early November as we go through next week with west to southwest flow aloft in place with highs in the 50s to around 60. The next chance for rain arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday as a weak boundary sets up across the region. Considerable uncertainty in the forecast models regarding these rain chances so it`s difficult to nail down any specific details on timing and rainfall amounts at this time. Weak upper level ridging looks to remain in place across much of the conus through the end of next week with no major cool downs on the immediate horizon. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 The low clouds have continued to make slow progress to the northeast and now look like they will clear both airports overnight. The 28.03Z RAP looks to have the best handle on these clouds and takes them out of both sites right around 09Z. Satellite imagery shows lots of high clouds in place and these will keep streaming in overnight and should limit any fog potential to primarily MVFR at KRST with just a small potential for a dip to IFR. The winds still look to be rather gusty Friday ahead of the approaching cold front, but the depth of mixing will be shallow enough to keep these gusts around 20 knots for KLSE and in the 25 to 30 knot range for KRST until the mixing gets cut off about sunset Friday evening. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
408 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Fog will be the forecast challenge through the early morning hours of Friday. The 07Z RAP and HRRR are indicating patchy fog primarily in eastern and north central areas, supported well with current obs. Increasing west/northwest winds should limit widespread dense fog. For the rest of today, surface low pressure and a trailing cold front will move eastward across the state. Though, another day of seasonably warm weather is expected with highs nearing 20 degrees above average in southern and central areas. Breezy northwesterly winds will accompany the surface low as it scoots eastward. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 A return to seasonable temperatures marks the start of the long term forecast. The 00Z ensemble and deterministic models are projecting progressive flow aloft through the period, as a series of mid/upper level troughs propagate across North Dakota. On Saturday high pressure moves in at the surface; though aloft a sagging low pressure system over the eastern Northwest Territories will bring cooler Canadian air into the state. Highs will be in the 40s. The flow will also split on Saturday, as a short wave transverses the northern plains creating favorable chances for rain across the south. Much of the rain will stay in South Dakota. The next trough is projected to start moving into the state Sunday night through Monday, eventually closing over southern Manitoba. Widespread chances for rain is in the forecast. Another trough is depicted in the ensemble and deterministic models towards the end of the period. Although, at this time, agreement within the models is poor, chances for rain towards the end of next week is possible along with a flake or two. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Patchy fog will continue overnight over the James River Valley into portions of north central North Dakota. Otherwise...most locations will remain VFR today. Lower cigs will start to work into the area Friday evening, with some locations dropping to MVFR levels over western and north central North Dakota. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM...AC AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
311 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SHORT TERM.../Today/ Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 The primary sensible weather concerns today will be temperatures and winds. A short wave, associated forcing and surface low pressure reflection will ride the nose of the jet across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes by 00z. Warm advection will be fairly strong through the morning until the thermal ridge reaches Iowa by early afternoon, but this lift will be moisture starved with only mid and high level cloudiness. The 07z surface analysis shows low level moisture has returned to eastern KS with stratus and fog development and most high resolution models suggest this will reach southern and possibly central IA before dissipating and lifting by noontime. The 07z analysis also shows a warm front NNW-SSE across Iowa, roughly from Spencer through Des Moines to Keokuk. This should lift north and east through the state as the surface low reaches northwest MN by 18z bringing much of the forecast area into the warm sector. This will boost highs well through the 70s in most areas, and possibly touching 80 in spots from Des Moines toward the MO River. This will be quite warm but still several degrees off records. Mixing to reach these levels would suggest a depth to around 600m with soundings showing a brief period of wind gusts to 35 mph or more. Confidence in both temps and wind gusts is only medium however as the NAM is less aggressive with mixing due to effects from low level moisture, while recent HRRR and RAP runs suggest even higher. Thus have raised wind gusts this afternoon, but this will need to be monitored as it could go in either direction. .LONG TERM.../Tonight through Thursday/ Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Tonight through Tuesday...Confidence Medium to High...Few changes expected in the near term through Tuesday. Cool front expected to move south into north central Iowa overnight tonight and temporarily take unseasonably warm air with it for the moment across the north. Tomorrow...per previous discussions an area of precipitation will develop well behind the boundary over Wyoming then moving east toward Iowa by late Saturday afternoon and evening. This is associated with both an upper H850 to H700 boundary as well as a short wave over Idaho /Montana at 06z Friday. This will result in sufficient lift to produce an area of light rain that will translate east southeast into northern Iowa to eastern Iowa by 12z Sunday. Over the past several days the NAM/GFS have come around to the Euro solution of slowing the cool front down enough that from about the I80 corridor south temperatures will recover enough to bring a warm day to much of southern Iowa...but not quite as warm as today. High pressure will settle across the region on Sunday with pleasant afternoon conditions...and more fall like readings in the 50s and 60s. With the active weather pattern continuing over the CONUS...another vigorous system will be hitting the west Coast. Aloft a western H500 mb trough will induce ridging over the Rockies and Plains...lifting heights and thickness values. By Monday lee side troughing will quickly result in another surface low over the western Dakotas. This will keep a warm front and precipitation well north of Iowa... leaving us in the warm sector. Another warm and breezy day is expected...with high confidence again that Monday will see highs well into the 70s. Once the Monday system passes east...temperatures will again cool off into Tuesday. The cool front is expected to stall south of the state and become stationary by Tuesday evening. Tuesday Night through Thursday...Confidence Medium...Models coming into better agreement with regard to return flow and potential for showers and elevated convection overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will be along a boundary that will again move southeast of the area as low pressure tracks northeast. The chances for convection will continue into Wednesday along the receding boundary finally exiting by Thursday morning as high pressure builds across the state. A return of cooler temperatures will accompany the front. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night/ Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 VFR cigs expected through the forecast period for the most part. There is some potential for patchy fog but mixing should be strong enough that vsbys will not drop much. There is also some hint that stratus will move back in but confidence is low that anything more than a sct low deck will develop. Warm advection moves in on Friday setting up a strong inversion but winds in this shallow mixed layer are 25 to 40 kts so it will become windy in the late morning/afternoon. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Small LONG TERM...REV AVIATION...FAB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
421 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 331 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Dry and warmer weather is expected through Saturday as the Ohio Valley remains under the influence of high pressure. A cold front will drift into the region on Sunday bringing clouds and scattered showers before stalling then lifting back north on Monday. Warm and dry conditions will resume for the first half of next week with cooler weather to follow late week as a cold front brings rain showers to the region. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 331 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Low stratus lingers in pockets generally focused over the northeast half of the forecast area with mid level clouds above early this morning. Where skies had cleared patchy fog had developed as well...especially over the Wabash Valley. 07Z temps ranged from the upper 30s to mid 40s. A dry and warmer day coming for central Indiana as high pressure centered over the region this morning moves away to the east with back side southerly flow developing. Primary focus early this morning is the gradual diminishing of the lower stratus. RAP 925mb RH progs and sounding data indicating the inversion may take until mid morning to completely erode over far northeast portions of the forecast area. Likewise patchy fog will likely take until 13 or 14Z to completely diminish. Once all of the stratus and fog has dissipated...expect a really nice autumn day with plenty of sunshine and just some passing high clouds. The arrival of a low level jet into the western Great Lakes by late day combined with a tightening surface pressure gradient across the Midwest will support increasing southerly flow by late day. Most gusts however should hold off until tonight as the low level jet passes by to the north. Temps...warm advection will commence with the southerly flow developing later today. Trended at or just above warmer MAVMOS guidance for highs in the mid and upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/... Issued at 331 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Forecast challenges focus on precip chances Sunday and temps throughout the forecast period. Wavy upper flow highlighted by ridging aloft will promote warm and dry weather through much of the short term. The passage of a weak wave aloft and an associated cold front moving into the region on Sunday will provide a brief period of cooler and potentially unsettled weather before ridging aloft reestablishes for early next week. The aforementioned cold front will sag into the lower Great Lakes on Saturday but will be unable to move any further south into central Indiana...blocked by ridging aloft and at the surface focused over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. With the core of the low level jet over the Great Lakes and tight gradient between the cold front to the north and the surface ridge to the south...expect warm and breezy southwest winds Saturday. The approach of the upper wave into the region from the west late Saturday night and early Sunday will buckle heights aloft and enable the frontal boundary to make a more concerted push south into northern portions of the forecast area. The combination of forcing aloft and weak isentropic lift will likely be enough to generate scattered light showers in the vicinity of the frontal boundary on Sunday...focused primarily over areas near and north of I-70 before transitioning into eastern Indiana by the afternoon as the wave aloft moves east. Anticipate a fairly cloudy day for most of the area except perhaps the far south as model soundings favor moisture becoming trapped beneath a sharp inversion. The boundary will become quasi-stationary over the forecast area by Sunday evening before lifting back north towards daybreak Monday in response to strong low pressure tracking into the Dakotas. Despite the front remaining in the area Sunday night...lack of appreciable forcing aloft with the return of upper ridging will limit any rainfall. The inversion however will only gradually weaken with cloud cover slow to diminish as well through the night. Temps...low level thermals support a general model blend for highs both Saturday and Sunday. Expect upper 70s to potentially lower 80s for Saturday from north to south. The clouds and the front will keep temps cooler on Sunday for much of the area...ranging from the mid 60s north to mid 70s far south. Lows will remain primarily in the 50s through the period. && .LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/... Issued at 224 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was accepted for most items. Upper ridging will keep central Indiana warm and most of the area dry until mid week, when an upper trough pushes into the area from the northwest. Models still differ a bit on timing, but the uncertainty that far out leads to sticking with the model blend. Temperatures will remain well above normal into mid week, then cool some (but still above average) for Thursday. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 280900z TAF Update/... Issued at 421 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Lower clouds have moved out of the KIND area, and it appears that a light southeast wind (some impact from urban heat island) is preventing fog formation at that site. Thus went optimistic and kept conditions VFR there. Previous discussion follows... Patches of MVFR ceilings continues to hang around KIND/KLAF, so included a mention of these for the first couple of hours. Will also see some MVFR fog develop at the sites that could last through daybreak. Not high confidence in how low it will get or how long it will last though with high clouds streaming in to the area. Winds will be light to calm for the rest of the night but then increase to 5-8 kts out of the southwest by late morning. Could see some LLWS Friday night. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...CP/50
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
613 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 The main impactful weather concerns for today are on breezy southerly winds that could gust to around 35 mph at times in open areas. Focus then turns to rain chances late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Breezy south to southwest winds develop across the region today in response to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. The main question for today is how deeply will we mix. This will have a direct impact on how windy and warm we may get today. RAP and NAM Forecast soundings across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and portions of southwest Wisconsin suggest we will mix to just above 950 mb, maybe as deep as 925 mb. This should result in high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 60s, and possibly to around 70 in southern areas. It will really depend on how much sunshine is seen today. It appears areas along and west of the Mississippi River will see some filtered sunshine at times through high clouds. Sustained winds today will likely be in the 18 to 23 mph range, with gusts to around 35 mph possible in the open areas of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. If we mix just a little deeper, closer to 925 mb, we could see a few gusts closer to 40 mph. Further to the northeast across central into northern Wisconsin, thicker cloud cover should limit mixing and keep high temperatures in the lower 60s, still very pleasant for this time of year. The surface front edges across the area late tonight into Saturday morning and looks to stall out across portions of central Iowa through northern Illinois. Winds will switch to the north in the wake of the front but will be on the light side. Considerable cloudiness will linger across the area in the wake of the front. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 A shortwave trough will slide through the region late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and interact with the front. Frontogenesis looks to increase across the region mainly in the 900 to 600 mb layer. This will result in a period of light rain, but the concern is exactly where. Forecast models paint light rain across much of the forecast area. The NAM is showing more concentrated area of light rain positioned mainly along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor. The GFS shows a broader swath of rain and meanders it south across the region. The bottom line is that all of the models are indicating rain across much of the area, it`s really a matter of where the best frontogenesis zone sets up for a more concentrated band of light rain. Forecast models have slowed the arrival of the rain down slightly and has shifted the axis of rain slightly south. Will lean toward a model consensus blend for rain chances but if trends continue we will likely need to increase these chances along and south of Interstate 90. After a quiet day on Sunday, another windy and potentially milder day is in store for the region on Monday. Again, cloud cover and how deeply we can mix will be a big player in wind speeds and high temperatures. There is the potential for some light rain across far northern Wisconsin on Monday as a shortwave trough moves in from the northern plains. Temperatures then remain on the milder side for early November as we go through next week with west to southwest flow aloft in place with highs in the 50s to around 60. The next chance for rain arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday as a weak boundary sets up across the region. Considerable uncertainty in the forecast models regarding these rain chances so it`s difficult to nail down any specific details on timing and rainfall amounts at this time. Weak upper level ridging looks to remain in place across much of the conus through the end of next week with no major cool downs on the immediate horizon. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Increasing SW winds in the 1K-3K above ground level have finally advected the bulk of the IFR/MVFR cloud deck north and east of the TAF sites. Sfc winds to increase thru the morning with diurnal warming, with the patchy/areas of MVFR BR dissipating by mid morning. With the stronger winds aloft this morning, added a mention of LLWS to both KRST/KLSE thru 15z-16z as a headed up to pilots. Generally good VFR expected after 15z-16z with the southwest gradient flow for mixing and a dry airmass progged over the area in the 925-500mb layer. Gradient winds increase into the 15-25kt G25- 35kt range for the late morning/afternoon hours, then diminish rather quickly near/after 23z as the gradient relaxes and diurnal cooling starts to stabilize the boundary layer. Weak cold front slides thru the area later tonight, with sfc winds shifting NW and N by 12z Sat. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM....WETENKAMP AVIATION.....RRS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1001 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 957 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Little change to the ongoing forecast for today other than to blend to observed trends through 14 UTC, which was namely to increase cloud cover for today. UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Some fog continues to linger over north central North Dakota into the James River Valley, though visibility over most locations remains over a mile. A few echos have shown up on area radars, though doubtful anything is reaching the ground as cloud bases remain quite high and soundings show a rather dry area between cloud base and the surface. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Fog will be the forecast challenge through the early morning hours of Friday. The 07Z RAP and HRRR are indicating patchy fog primarily in eastern and north central areas, supported well with current obs. Increasing west/northwest winds should limit widespread dense fog. For the rest of today, surface low pressure and a trailing cold front will move eastward across the state. Though, another day of seasonably warm weather is expected with highs nearing 20 degrees above average in southern and central areas. Breezy northwesterly winds will accompany the surface low as it scoots eastward. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 A return to seasonable temperatures marks the start of the long term forecast. The 00Z ensemble and deterministic models are projecting progressive flow aloft through the period, as a series of mid/upper level troughs propagate across North Dakota. On Saturday high pressure moves in at the surface; though aloft a sagging low pressure system over the eastern Northwest Territories will bring cooler Canadian air into the state. Highs will be in the 40s. The flow will also split on Saturday, as a short wave transverses the northern plains creating favorable chances for rain across the south. Much of the rain will stay in South Dakota. The next trough is projected to start moving into the state Sunday night through Monday, eventually closing over southern Manitoba. Widespread chances for rain is in the forecast. Another trough is depicted in the ensemble and deterministic models towards the end of the period. Although, at this time, agreement within the models is poor, chances for rain towards the end of next week is possible along with a flake or two. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 957 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 IFR conditions in fog at KJMS may continue through 16 UTC, with improving conditions thereafter. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North Dakota today. MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to spread across the area from north to south this evening and tonight behind a cold front. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM...AC AVIATION...AYD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1030 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .DISCUSSION... Removed fog from zone forecast. Fog took longer to dissipate than expected. Adjusted temperatures accordingly, as some areas temperatures are much lower due to the fog. Adjusted clouds and temperatures somewhat. However...based on sounding, do expect maximum temperature forecast today to be in the ballpark enough not to change at this time although temperatures may be a degree or two cooler in some locations due to the sustained east flow and lingering clouds. Showers continue to develop near the coast and some of these may move inland later this afternoon...especially south. HRRR and NSSL showing some sea- breeze activity this afternoon...so maintained rain chances. No other changes needed at this time. Products have been updated. No change to the marine package. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 629 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/ DISCUSSION...Please see the discussion below for more details. AVIATION...Patchy MVFR/IFR conditions across mainly northern areas will dissipate by 14-15Z this morning. Otherwise, most areas will remain at VFR through the day. Isolated showers will be possible today, mainly between 17Z and 22Z across the southern Coastal Bend. More widespread MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to develop after 08Z Saturday across inland areas, especially Victoria and Alice. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...Sufficiently deep boundary layer moisture, steep low level lapse rates, and boundary layer convergence will produce isolated showers across portions of the CWA today. This is in line with the past few runs of the SREF and HRRR. Dry and capped air aloft should mostly limit activity to just showers. Moisture advection will continue through Saturday as a mid/upper low approaches from the east on Saturday. The result will be PWATs rising to around 1.5 inches across the Coastal Bend and adjacent waters by Saturday. Will therefore maintain slight chance to low chance PoPs across mainly the southern and eastern areas on Saturday. Aftn highs will be tempered slightly by the increased moisture but will still remain above normal through the pd. LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...Models have consistently shown a mid/upper level high pressure system tracking east across TX Sat night through Mon. This will allow increasing low level moisture to advect across the gulf waters and into S TX. By Tue, the upper level high pressure is progged to be located across the NE gulf while a long wave trough swings across the western U.S. This allows moisture in the mid and upper levels to move across the region from the Pac. This could lead to PWATs of near 2 inches by Tue. In a nutshell, waves of moisture are progged to approach S TX during the extended with rain chances expected to be the highest Tue and Wed. The increased moisture/clouds will result in slightly cooler mx temps and warmer mn temps through the middle of next week, but remaining above normal. Winds will generally be onshore through the period with moderate speeds at times. Models also continue to show longer swell periods and elevated seas Sun-Wed. This may lead to minor tidal overflow and an increased threat of rip currents at times through the extended period. MARINE... A moderate gradient due to broad high pressure anchored across the Deep South and broad low pressure in the Caribbean will persist through the weekend. These conditions will maintain persistent 8-9 second period swells of 3-5 ft to affect the coastal waters through Saturday. The result will be a moderate to high risk of rip currents along with minor tidal overflow. For now, it appears that tides will remain below 2 ft MSL. However, the wave run-up due to these long period swells may warrant a coastal flood advisory for this weekend mainly from Port A southward. Will continue to monitor. At the minimum, a rip current statement will be needed on Saturday given the high risk of rip currents. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 87 66 87 68 87 / 20 20 20 10 10 Victoria 88 63 87 63 87 / 10 10 10 10 10 Laredo 89 66 88 67 90 / 10 10 10 10 0 Alice 88 62 88 64 89 / 20 10 20 10 10 Rockport 84 69 84 71 84 / 20 20 20 10 10 Cotulla 89 65 88 65 90 / 10 10 10 10 0 Kingsville 88 63 88 66 88 / 20 20 30 10 10 Navy Corpus 84 72 84 72 84 / 20 20 30 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ GW/86...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
630 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SHORT TERM.../Today/ Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 The primary sensible weather concerns today will be temperatures and winds. A short wave, associated forcing and surface low pressure reflection will ride the nose of the jet across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes by 00z. Warm advection will be fairly strong through the morning until the thermal ridge reaches Iowa by early afternoon, but this lift will be moisture starved with only mid and high level cloudiness. The 07z surface analysis shows low level moisture has returned to eastern KS with stratus and fog development and most high resolution models suggest this will reach southern and possibly central IA before dissipating and lifting by noontime. The 07z analysis also shows a warm front NNW-SSE across Iowa, roughly from Spencer through Des Moines to Keokuk. This should lift north and east through the state as the surface low reaches northwest MN by 18z bringing much of the forecast area into the warm sector. This will boost highs well through the 70s in most areas, and possibly touching 80 in spots from Des Moines toward the MO River. This will be quite warm but still several degrees off records. Mixing to reach these levels would suggest a depth to around 600m with soundings showing a brief period of wind gusts to 35 mph or more. Confidence in both temps and wind gusts is only medium however as the NAM is less aggressive with mixing due to effects from low level moisture, while recent HRRR and RAP runs suggest even higher. Thus have raised wind gusts this afternoon, but this will need to be monitored as it could go in either direction. .LONG TERM.../Tonight through Thursday/ Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 Tonight through Tuesday...Confidence Medium to High...Few changes expected in the near term through Tuesday. Cool front expected to move south into north central Iowa overnight tonight and temporarily take unseasonably warm air with it for the moment across the north. Tomorrow...per previous discussions an area of precipitation will develop well behind the boundary over Wyoming then moving east toward Iowa by late Saturday afternoon and evening. This is associated with both an upper H850 to H700 boundary as well as a short wave over Idaho /Montana at 06z Friday. This will result in sufficient lift to produce an area of light rain that will translate east southeast into northern Iowa to eastern Iowa by 12z Sunday. Over the past several days the NAM/GFS have come around to the Euro solution of slowing the cool front down enough that from about the I80 corridor south temperatures will recover enough to bring a warm day to much of southern Iowa...but not quite as warm as today. High pressure will settle across the region on Sunday with pleasant afternoon conditions...and more fall like readings in the 50s and 60s. With the active weather pattern continuing over the CONUS...another vigorous system will be hitting the west Coast. Aloft a western H500 mb trough will induce ridging over the Rockies and Plains...lifting heights and thickness values. By Monday lee side troughing will quickly result in another surface low over the western Dakotas. This will keep a warm front and precipitation well north of Iowa... leaving us in the warm sector. Another warm and breezy day is expected...with high confidence again that Monday will see highs well into the 70s. Once the Monday system passes east...temperatures will again cool off into Tuesday. The cool front is expected to stall south of the state and become stationary by Tuesday evening. Tuesday Night through Thursday...Confidence Medium...Models coming into better agreement with regard to return flow and potential for showers and elevated convection overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will be along a boundary that will again move southeast of the area as low pressure tracks northeast. The chances for convection will continue into Wednesday along the receding boundary finally exiting by Thursday morning as high pressure builds across the state. A return of cooler temperatures will accompany the front. && .AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning/ Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 LIFR conditions should affect the KMCW area for another few hours before lifting into VFR area wide with nothing beyond high cloudiness. Winds will become quite gusty for a brief period this afternoon with some gusts 30+kts. Strong SW winds just off the surface may lead to LLWS near KFOD briefly early this morning, and then again into tonight toward KOTM. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Small LONG TERM...REV AVIATION...Small
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
635 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and warm conditions will continue over the weekend into next week. A weak dry front moving through late Sunday/early Monday will reinforce dry conditions early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Current weather analysis indicates a weak frontal boundary slowly pushing through the CWA. Drier air will be filtering into the area into the evening. No precip expected due to the dry conditions. Surface winds shifting out of the northwest. The main change with this air mass will be the additional drier air pushing into the area. Not much difference in regards to temperatures. Skies mostly clear through tonight. Some patchy fog may be found near area rivers during the early morning hours. Overnight lows in the mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Dry and mild weather continues over the weekend with surface high pressure centered over the forecast area Saturday then shifting offshore by Sunday allowing a southerly flow to develop over the region. An upper-level ridge will move over the area Saturday then the 500 mb flow flattens Sunday in advance of an approaching shortwave trough which will pass by to our north off the Mid- Atlantic coast Sunday evening allowing a weak backdoor front to push into the region. Moisture again will be limited with this front and no precipitation is expected. High temperatures will continue to be some 10-15 degrees above normal this period with max temperatures in the mid to possibly upper 80s and approach record highs. Low temperatures will also remain mild in the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain entrenched over the region through mid week while a building upper ridge over the southeastern states will ensure continued warm and dry conditions. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s. Late in the forecast period the medium-range models show the upper ridge over the southeastern states retrograding westward allowing for an amplified upper trough to dig down the east coast but there are some differences in timing between the latest GFS and previous ECWMF leading to low confidence in possibility of precipitation at this point. Both models hinting at a closed upper low developing over the Southeast Friday. Latest MEX guidance showing chance pops for late Friday. Given current uncertainties, for now will lean towards a low pop for Friday. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak dry cold front will continue pushing south through the area tonight with dry high pressure returning for Saturday. Mostly clear skies and light/calm winds are expected at the terminals through the overnight period. The HRRR shows LIFR conditions developing in the eastern portion of the forecast area towards daybreak Saturday morning which would affect the OGB terminal. The local radiation fog tool which incorporates the crossover temperature shows MVFR fog at CAE/CUB and LIFR at OGB and AGS toward daybreak. This appears reasonable so have continued with restrictions at all of the terminals between 11 and 13Z. Expect rapid improvement by 13Z with diurnal heating/mixing. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Late night/early morning fog possible. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures 10/28-10/31 10/28 10/29 10/30 10/31 CAE 90/1984 86/1919 88/1984 88/1950 AGS 89/1984 85/1996 90/1984 89/1961 && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
537 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather can be expected today and Saturday as high pressure builds across the area. Unseasonably warm conditions will return by Saturday with highs in the 60s to mid 70s. A cold front will bring a chance of showers to the northern mountains Saturday night and to the rest of the area on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The sunshine will only help temps get so high with 8H temps sub- zero to start the day. Mixing does get 8H temps to +2 or 4C. Thus maxes will likely be in the m40s N/NE but could get in the m-u50s in the far srn sections. Winds will probably still be breezy in the morning and early aftn, but the sfc high builds into wrn PA by the end of the afternoon and the wind should diminish late in the day in the W. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday night will be mainly clear with light winds under high pressure. Mild weather will return on Saturday with 850 mb temperatures forecast to rise back into the +10 to +13C range - allowing surface temperatures to climb into the 60s with l70s in the south. The next front approaching from the north may trigger a few showers over the northern mountains late in the day. The front will stall for a short time as it enters PA as a sfc wave forms along the front back in the midwest. The upper short wave trough sliding straight east over the area will help to shove the front slightly to the south Sat Night. But the front won`t pass through most of the CWA until late in the day Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The start of the long term period will feature a progressive and relatively weak upper shortwave and associated sfc cold front that will move through the region mainly during the daylight hours on Sunday...exiting the southern tier counties of the state Sunday evening. A brief cooldown will occur monday (under NW flow aloft with a 1026mb sfc high sliding by across upstate NY and SERN canada) with perhaps a few morning light showers or flurries across the mtns NE of KIPT thanks to shallow moisture streaming SE from Lake Ontario and zero C wet bulb temps within 1 kft agl. Warmer air floods into the region from the west later Monday night into the midweek period with generally nothing more than periods of mid/high-level clouds and maybe a few light showers brushing the nrn tier of the state Tuesday as a flat shortwave aloft races ENE across the Lower Great Lakes region. Disjointed...nrn and southern stream waves moving through the Mid Miss Valley and Lower Great Lakes regions Thursday/Thursday night could bring a few showers to the region. Prior to this later week cfropa...high temps Wed and Thursday should surge well into the 60s and lower 70s in many locations Wednesday. Temps could be warmer than currently forecast Thursday in the SE zones if timing on the cfropa is a bit slower. The upper level ridge across the eastern U.S. during the early to mid week period will retrograde to the Rockies and High Plains late in the week and next weekend...allowing the upper flow in the east to veer to the NW...with one or two chunks of nrn stream energy bringing a few cold fronts and isolated to scattered showers. Overall, the upcoming week will be milder than normal and reasonably quiet with 7 day QPF likely under 0.25...and almost definitely under 0.50 inch in all areas. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure over the region will provide fair weather tonight across Central Pa with just enough of a breeze to preclude any fog issues. SREF and model RH profiles point toward a near certainty of VFR conditions tonight. A cold front will approach from the north on Saturday, bringing the chance of showers and MVFR cigs to KBFD during the PM hours. Will also be expecting increasingly gusty WSW winds preceding the front. A combination of bufkit soundings and HRRR output supports gusts during the afternoon to near 30kts at KBFD, near 25kts at KJST and generally under 20kts elsewhere. Outlook... Sun...Showers/low cigs possible, esp N and W. Mon-Wed...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Gartner NEAR TERM...Gartner SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Gartner LONG TERM...Lambert AVIATION...Fitzgerald/RXR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
704 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure over the region will build east to the Mid Atlantic by Saturday morning. A southerly flow will develop on the back side of this retreating high offering a warming trend. A cold front will push through the area on Sunday, bringing with it a chance of showers. Slightly cooler air will briefly settle in behind the front before another warm up for midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure over the region will push off to the east, becoming centered over the Mid Atlantic by Saturday morning. At the same time a mid level ridge will build into the region. This will allow high level clouds to drift in from the northwest. Lows will be milder tonight due to the clouds and southerly winds that stay up at speeds of 5 to 10 mph. Lows are expected to run 8 to 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the upper 40s east to the lower/middle 50s west. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Models solutions in general agreement with broad mid level ridge extending north into the Ohio Valley Saturday with s/w passing thru the Great Lakes Saturday night/Sunday, allowing a surface cold front to drop south through the region. This setup will bring an increase in the low level srly flow Saturday. In this WAA pattern temperatures will warm up around 15 degrees above normal with highs on Saturday ranging from the mid 70s north to near 80 south. The cold front will slowly sag south into the southern Great Lakes by Sunday morning and then south through ILN/s FA Sunday. Have allowed for an increase in clouds and only a slight chance of a shower far north toward sunrise Sunday. Mild lows expected in the mid and upper 50s Saturday night. As the front pushes into the area low level forcing and upper level support will be maximized across the northern and central counties during the day Sunday. Have high chance pops here mainly during the afternoon. NAM appears overdone with instby and favor the marginal instability that the GFS is showing. Given this marginal instby will only mention slight chance of thunder. High temperatures will show a good range from the lower 60s far nw to the upper 60s far south. The threat for precipitation will end quickly early Sunday evening. Lows to range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s far south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will push to the east on Monday and southerly flow will develop. This will allow for several days of well above normal temperatures. Wind gusts will pick up for Tuesday with some gusts around 20 to 30 mph. Models have come into good agreement on keeping a dry forecast on Wednesday and therefore kept Wednesday dry. A cold front will move through on Thursday and bring rain showers to the region and slightly cooler weather. Dry conditions are expected to return by Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure has already moved east of the area this evening allowing a return of southerly winds. Overnight into Saturday morning a strengthening LLJ will push east into the region bringing 40 kt winds near 900 mb. This is shown on both the NAM and GFS with the core of the jet stretching along and north of Interstate 71. The jet will then begin to weaken as the sunrises thanks to a weakening low level pressure gradient. The jet will still be sustained around 30 kts though and with ample mixing winds will be gusty at times Saturday afternoon. The GFS is showing wind gusts up to 25 kts possible (via momentum transfer) while the NAM is showing closer to 20 kts with the RAP even slightly weaker. Given the lack of clouds have leaned towards a blend of the GFS/NAM solution. Saturday night winds will start to decrease as daytime heating is lost. VFR through the issuance is expected. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible on Sunday and Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Haines
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
304 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP 500 mb height analysis show an upper level low translating westward across the western Gulf of Mexico, while an upper level ridge of high pressure meanwhile extends from west TX and eastward across much of the Deep South. Plentiful deep layer subsidence and dry air is in place across our area, with mostly sunny skies courtesy of some afternoon cumulus and high level cirrus. Temperatures are generally ranging in the lower to mid 80s, with readings even approaching 90 around Greenville as of 3 PM CDT. Upper level ridging will continue to stretch across the southern and southeastern U.S. through Saturday, keeping a dry and subsident airmass in place across our forecast area into Saturday afternoon. POPs subsequently remain nil. There could be some patchy fog formation across areas away from the immediate coast again late tonight and early Saturday morning, though the latest SREF, NAM and HRRR are not as optimistic on fog development vs. trends the past couple of days. Lows tonight are forecast to range from the lower to mid 50s across most inland locations to around 60 to the mid 60s along the immediate coast and beaches. Highs Saturday should range from the lower to mid 80s along the immediate coast to the mid to upper 80s over the interior. /21 .SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Upper level ridging over the Plains and Midwest weakens some this weekend, though not enough to make any impact as we stay warm and dry here across the southern Gulf states through the weekend. High pressure at the surface builds into the southeastern U.S., continuing our generally light easterly winds, with a weak southerly component possible near the coast during afternoon hours. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will range from mid to upper 80s inland to low 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will dip into the mid 50s inland and low 60s along the coast each night. /49 .LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Another upper level ridge builds over the southeastern states early to mid next week as troughing digs into the western CONUS. This ridge will remain over the area for much of the week, maintaining strong mid to upper level subsidence and thus warm and dry conditions across the forecast area. Weather models do currently attempt to dig an upper level low into the central Gulf states at the tail end of next week. However, plenty of uncertainty remains at this time regarding the location, timing, and potential impacts from said system. Otherwise, expect above seasonal temperatures to continue next week, with highs reaching the mid 80s inland to low 80s along the coast each afternoon. Lows will dip into the mid and upper 50s inland to around 60 along the coast each night. /49 && .MARINE...A surface ridge of high pressure will continue to extend across the southeastern U.S. and the Central Gulf Coast region through the middle of next week. This pattern will continue to support a light to moderate easterly flow over our marine area through Wednesday. Wind speeds may range within cautionary levels well offshore late and night and in the morning through the weekend. Seas should gradually subside through the weekend and into Monday. /21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 59 85 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 62 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 65 83 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 54 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 54 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 54 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 53 88 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob