Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/27/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
849 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains near the local area through tonight. A cold
front approaches from the northwest Thursday afternoon and crosses
the area Thursday night. High pressure returns Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Early evening analysis features ~1034mb Sfc hi pres centered from
Near James Bay and central Quebec...with a surface ridge extending
south from New England to along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Sfc Low
pres continues to slide from the Mid Ms Valley toward the Ohio
Valley this evening. Temperatures have once again fallen off
quickly this evening with light winds and clear sky, with temps
already in the 40s at 00z over much of the local area. As with
last HRRR and RAP have a good handle on this trend and have
trended forecast in its direction overnight.
Sfc ridge will continue to pivot offshore overnight, as sfc low
pressure tracks E toward the lower Great Lakes. Look for BKN-
OVC mid to high clouds to slide across the FA (mainly nrn
portion) tonight, reaching SW sections by late tonight. Winds
become more S through the night...and increase a bit...especially
at the coast. Combined with the increasing clouds, this will
allow temps to level off a bit, especially after midnight, with
the end result being a relatively milder night than last night.
Look for early morning lows to settle into the u30s to around 40
on the eastern shore...low to mid 40s elsewhere (upper 40s to
around 50 immediate for SE coastal sections).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lo pres continues E into New England by late Thu/Thu eve...w/ its
trailing cold front arriving Thu eve/night. Period of higher
moisture and at least weak forcing result carrying chc PoPs most
places by late Thu afternoon into the eve...then tapering off W to
E after midnight Thu night. Highest PoPs (40-55%) from Nrn Neck VA
to the MD Eastern...w/ 15-30% elsewhere. QPF through 12z/28 from T
to about .25". Highs Thu m60s N to l70s se.
The front pushes offshore late Thu night into early Fri morning
with sfc hi pres returning by aftn. Clouds are expected to
decrease rather quickly Friday...w/ most of the area becoming
sunny by late morning and aftn. Lows Thu night from around 50F NW
to the u50s SE. Highs Fri in the low 60s to around 70F.
Sfc hi pres slides S of the region Sat w/ zonal flo aloft. Deep
layered WSW flo leads to substantial warming by Sat afternoon.
Mainly skc Fri night-Sat. Lows Fri night ranging through the 40s.
Highs Sat from the u60s-around 70F on the ern shore to the l-m70s
inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another low pressure system skirts north of the area (primarily
along the St Lawrence River Valley) and drags a weak sfc front
across the area Sat night. There are some model discrepancies
regarding shortwave energy passing through the region behind the
front on Sunday with a weak sfc low developing in the lee of the
Appalachians late in the day. Tried to split the difference
regarding precip placement and limited to 15% POPs since the end
result may be more clouds than precip Sunday aftn/evening.
Otherwise, high pressure will persist over the Mid Atlantic
Region Sunday into most of next week. Warm Sat/Sun nights with
temps running 5-10 degrees above normal (lows in the 50s) and highs
on Sun 5-7 degrees above normal (highs in the 70s). Expect a
slight cool down Mon-Tue with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Lows Mon/Tue nights in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will slowly move out of the region tonight while a
cold front approaches during the overnight and Thursday. The front
will move through the area during the evening hours and off the
coast by early Friday. The front will bring a chance for a few
showers during the afternoon and evening.
Some guidance suggests that a brief period of MVFR stratus clouds
will affect the region Thursday morning. This is likely the affect
of E-SE flow ahead of a weak warm frontal boundary. As the
boundary moves north of the area and winds shift to the south,
those ceilings should lift and winds increase with gusts to 20-25
kts. The chance for -Ra will increase into the evening.
Outlook: High pressure and VFR conditions builds into the region
for Friday and Saturday. Another cold front approaches from the
west on Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA flags raised Thu aftn through Fri aftn/evening.
High pressure slides offshore this evening and pushes ewd overnight
as a sfc low moves across the Ohio Valley. NE-E winds aob 10kt will
veer around to a more SE direction Thu morning as the Ohio Valley
low pressure system tracks along the St Lawrence River Valley. The
sfc pressure gradient tightens up as the day progresses and most
especially as a cold front gets dragged through the region Thu
evening and across the waters after midnight Thu night. Expect
winds to be SE-S 10-15kt in the morning...becoming more S by Thu
aftn. Solid SCA conditions develop as early as Thu aftn as wind
speeds increase to 15-20kt with gusts of 25-30kt Bay/coastal waters
Thu aftn through Thu night...followed by Currituck Sound/mouth of
James River with speeds of 15-20kt Thu evening and overnight. The
mouth of the York River may experience gusts around 20kt for a few
hours late Thu evening, however this timeframe is not long enough
to justify SCA flags here at this time. Seas build to 3-5ft/waves
3-4ft on the Bay. The cold front exits the coast by Fri morning,
however SCA conditions will persist during the daytime hours until
winds start to diminish Fri aftn and seas drop below 5ft early Thu
evening. Expect breezy NW winds 15-20kt Fri morning...diminishing
to NW 10-15kt by Thu evening.
High pressure builds over the Ohio Valley on Fri and then slides
over the SE States by Sat. Another low pressure system skirts north
of the area (once again along the St Lawrence River Valley) and
drags a weak sfc front across the waters Sat night. A brief SW surge
may be possible, however speeds remain aob 15kt at this time. High
pressure will then persist over the Mid Atlantic Region Sun into
most of next week.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 1 PM EDT Friday for
ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ633-638-654-656.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 6 PM EDT Friday for
ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB/JDM
NEAR TERM...AJB/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...AJB/JEF
MARINE...BMD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
911 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Updated the forecast earlier to add low POPs for an area of
showers moving through south central into southeastern ND, and
will maintain isolated-scattered mention for another couple of
hours. Have had light rain reports at both KDIK and KBIS.
Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape for tonight.
UPDATE
Issued at 653 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
For the early evening update, expanded fog wording a bit in aerial
coverage and developed sooner based on observations and the last
few hours of the high res model guidance, which indicates fog
developing after sunset for all but the southwest initially.
Already seeing zero T/Td spreads east of Highway 83 along with a
few observing sites already indicated visibility restrictions.
Otherwise the forecast remains in good shape for tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
At 3 pm CDT, a cold front extended from surface low pressure in
eastern Saskatchewan, through northwest North Dakota. A warm
front extended across central North Dakota. Low clouds and fog
that formed along and east of the warm front earlier Wednesday
have been slowly eroding east at 5 to 10 mph through the day.
This pattern will continue this evening with the low clouds
retreating east across east central North Dakota with the warm
front. Meanwhile the cold front across the northwest will move
through the region after midnight. The HRRR model runs show
shallow cool northwest flow behind the cold front that will
likely support stratus and some possible fog back into the north.
Finally some fog is also possible south central where diurnal
cooling in the moist boundary layer will set up a fog scenario.
On Thursday with a complete airmass exchange in the wake of the
cold front expect partly to mostly sunny skies that will allow
good mixing. As a result mild temperatures are forecast well into
the low to mid 70s southwest to the 60s central.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
A generally progressive flow will continue through the extended
with several shortwave troughs flattening the broad h500 ridge
across the central and northern plains. This will bring several
chances for rain with a cooling trend from this weekend into next
week. The best chances for precipitation will be Saturday, and
again sunday night and monday. The flow aloft remains progressive
and the latest ECMWf, which earlier exhibited a closed low over
the northern plains Monday, now looks closer to the more open wave
and progressive GFS early next week. This may reduce the chances
for widespread rainfall on Monday.
The remainder of the forecast, Tuesday and Wednesday, looks dry
with seasonable temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
The forecast challenge for the 00Z TAF period is fog. KDIK and
KISN are expected to have prevailing VFR conditions, while fog is
forecast to impact KBIS and KJMS. Around 13Z, fog is likely to
create MVFR visibilities at KBIS and LIFR ceilings at KJMS.
Conditions at KJMS are likely to be LIFR or IFR (VLIFR is a
possibility) through Thursday morning. Vicinity fog was mentioned
with KMOT though uncertainty remains on how far west the fog will
develop.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
951 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Evening Update.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A band of light showers associated with an approaching positively
tilted shortwave trough is currently located just west of Memphis
and northward. Further southwest into Arkansas the band of
showers appears to be fizzling. A dry atmosphere remains in place
with PWATs of 0.95" on the BMX and JAN 00Z soundings. Will keep in
just a slight chance of showers northwest after 6Z tonight to
account for any light re-development. Numerous high clouds should
keep low temperatures up tonight overall, but temperatures at some
of the sheltered locations have fallen a bit quicker than
previously forecast so lows were adjusted downwards in those
locations. The RAP and HRRR indicate a surge in dewpoints in the
far southwest corner of the forecast area which could lead to
patchy fog development but high clouds will be a limiting factor.
32/Davis
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.
VFR conditions expected across TAF sites this evening with southeasterly
winds. Some low-level smoke and haze are possible just east of
Birmingham, but shouldn`t impact BHM terminal itself. Could see
some low clouds/patchy fog across the southeast counties tomorrow
morning, similar to what we saw this morning. Therefore, have
lowered CIGs for MGM and TOI. Introduced MVFR VIS for TOI around
10z Wednesday to account for the patchy fog.
Still unable to get observations for KASN, so have continued the
AMD NOT SKED mention in TAF.
25/Owen
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Light rain showers are possible late tonight mainly north of
Interstate 59 but any rainfall amounts will be light. A small
chance of showers will linger into Thursday. Dry and unseasonably
warm conditions will return thereafter.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 305 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
SHORT TERM...
With each passing model run, the chances for significant rainfall
over the next 24 to 30 hours get smaller and smaller. The 12z runs
continue that trend, with very little QPF, and POPs remaining at
20 percent or less. Any rain that we do get should be all gone by
00z Friday.
/61/
LONG TERM...
Friday through Wednesday, the model suite is in relatively good
agreement. A fairly active pattern remains well north of Central
Alabama. An upper level ridge builds overhead and 500mb heights
remain at 588dam or better much of the period. Low level
thicknesses and 850mb temperatures increase into Saturday and hold
steady. Therefore, the highs and lows will be close each day with
little change. Due to this upper ridge and the antecedent dry
conditions, have bumped temperatures up a degree from previous
forecast. This puts the entire area within a few degrees of recordhigh
temperatures Friday and beyond. The actual forecast has these
temps into the mid and upper 80s, with a spot here and there
potential around 90. Mean relative humidity values are only 35
percent or less much of the period. Therefore, no rain is
forecast.
75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 56 80 54 84 52 / 10 20 10 0 0
Anniston 59 81 56 85 56 / 10 20 10 0 0
Birmingham 63 81 60 86 59 / 10 20 10 0 0
Tuscaloosa 59 83 57 87 57 / 10 20 0 0 0
Calera 60 82 59 86 58 / 10 20 0 0 0
Auburn 61 81 59 84 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
Montgomery 61 86 58 88 56 / 10 10 0 0 0
Troy 58 83 56 85 54 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1031 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Partial clearing and light winds are expected tonight as high
pressure briefly settles over North Country. This will lead to
chilly temperatures tonight, with lows generally in the 20s. The
next low pressure system will approach from the Great Lakes later
Thursday, with the primary low tracking into the St. Lawrence
Valley before a secondary low takes over closer to the New England
coast during Thursday night. After increasing cloudiness Thursday
morning, looking for precipitation to develop Thursday afternoon
and continue through Thursday night into Friday morning. After a
brief rain/snow mix, precipitation will be predominantly rain at
elevations below 2000 feet. Several inches of wet snow
accumulation is possible at the higher summits. Total rainfall
amounts generally a half inch to one inch, highest along the
eastern slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1028 PM EDT Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with this
update. IR satellite showing high clouds spreading northern New
York portion of the forecast area with low clouds remaining over
much of the area as well. KMSS reports clear skies this hour but
believe the cirrus deck is too high to be picked up by the sensor.
Overnight min temps look to be on track with Adirondack sites
already in the 20s and 30s elsewhere.
Previous discussion...Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions persist
in NW flow, with lingering inversion near 5kft (per RAP soundings)
helping to trap moisture and stratocu layer. Sfc ridge axis across
sern Ontario will gradually shift ewd this evening into tonight.
Effect will be for winds to become light and variable, and should
see some partial clearing during after sunset. Depending on amount
of clearing and radiational cooling, should be a chilly night.
Certainly lows in the 20s for most sections. If skies can become
mostly clear, may see a few readings in the teens for the nrn
Adirondacks. Other than a lingering flurry across n-central into
nern VT late this aftn, expecting dry conditions overnight.
Dry conditions will be short-lived as next wave of low pressure
approaches from the Great Lakes region on Thursday. Surface low
will shift across Lake Erie/nwrn PA late Thursday morning, with
increasing mid-upr clouds across our area. Leading surge of
850-700mb warm advection and associated precipitation arrives
around 18Z across s-central VT and into the Adirondacks of NY.
Precipitation will overspread the remainder of the North Country
late in the afternoon...early evening for far nern VT. In terms of
precipitation type, PBL will have a chance to warm out ahead of
the arriving precipitation, generally into the low 40s.
Anticipate some wet-bulb cooling with precip onset as column
saturates, allowing for wet snowflakes as low as 500ft elevation
mid- afternoon Thursday, but thereafter, looking at mainly a rain
event below 1500ft with continued WAA and strengthening S-SE
flow. Generally no snow accumulation at all below 1500 ft. May see
a slushy coating to an inch 1500-2500ft. Above 2500ft, temps will
hold on below freezing longer, and could see 4-8" across the
highest summits of nrn NY and central/nrn VT through Thursday
night. With a 50-kt sly low-level jet, there is a warm (above
freezing) layer that comes in above summit level, so may see some
periods of sleet as well into Thursday night. So, not expecting
any impact for population/roadways, but the highest summits could
see a moderate accumulation of wet snow based on current trends.
Highs on Thursday generally in the low-mid 40s, and near freezing
across the highest summits of VT and nrn NY.
One other issue will be moderate winds on the western slopes of
the Green Mtns, and across all of the higher terrain. SE winds
peak during Thursday evening, and should see 15-25 mph with a few
gusts 30-35mph possible along the immediate western slopes, as
primary surface low tracks into the St. Lawrence Valley. Later
Thursday night, gradient slackens as secondary low development
takes place across sern new England...and should see sfc winds
weaken. Stable low-level conditions will limit areal coverage of
gusty winds to the immediate wrn slopes. Winds at summit level
could reach 50mph consistent with model soundings closer to
4-5kft.
In terms of total QPF, looking for some precipitation enhancement
along the ern slopes of the Greens and into the ern slopes of the
Adirondacks given low-level sely (upslope) conditions. Total
rainfall amts ranging from 0.6" across the St. Lawrence and
Champlain Valleys, but locally around 1" in aforementioned upslope
flow areas, from Ludlow up to Bethel, and across portions of
Essex/Clinton Counties in NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EDT Wednesday...The potential low pressure system
will be losing energy Friday morning as a shortwave vorticity
maxima pushed the center of the low south and east from the Saint
Lawrence to off the coast of New Hampshire. As this happens the
warm air will continue to surge north and generally rain will be
falling over the North Country except for a few higher elevation
sites over the Adirondacks and northern edge of the spine of the
Greens.
By mid day northwest flow develops and there will still be some
low level moisture at 925mb rh still exceeds 98% however moisture
in the snow growth zone will be minimal so any snow/flurries will
be confined to the areas with orographic lift. Friday should only
see 0.10-0.20" of qpf across the eastern Vermont zones mainly
falling as rain with a couple of hundredths of qpf across the rest
of the north country. Snow totals will really be continued to
elevations 2500-3000 feet and above and should only amount to an
inch or two of additional accumulation of heavy wet on Friday
adding to the 4-8 already from Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 357 PM EDT Wednesday...To start the weekend we will be
under marginal warm air advection on Saturday. A ridge of high
pressure will be slowly moving east in and 850 temps warm to +6C -
+8C. Clouds will be increasing and thickening as a weak northern
stream low tracks well to the north of the forecast area. With
boundary layer temps warm and little cold air to speak of it will
be just a typical late October rain event. QPF totals will be on
the lower side but most of the area should see some light rain
showers.
Behind that low, a eastern conus ridge builds in and leads to dry
air through the mid week before another low pressure system tracks
just north of the Great Lakes and brings an additional chance for
showers to start November.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00z Friday...Persistent cold. moist low-level northerly
flow will mkae it difficult to dissipate cigs at most taf sites
with the exception of KRUT. Otherwise...VFR at the TAF sites with
cigs generally 3.5-5kft.
Approaching low pressure from the Great Lakes will bring
increasing clouds above 10kft Thursday morning, lowering to near
8kft SLK/RUT toward 18Z and lowering to 3-4kft afterwards with
precipitation. Rain for most as it begins between 19-22z but
enough wet bulb cooling for change to snow or snow/rain mix at
KSLK. MVFR developing toward end of period.
Light winds overnight but increasing to 10-20kts from SE Thursday
with localized downsloping wind gusts in excess of 30 kts possible
along western slopes of Green Mountains.
Outlook 00z Friday through Monday...An active pattern with
changeable flight conditions expected during this time period.
Mainly a rain event beginning Thursday aftn. However, initial
precipitation will be a rain/snow mix, especially at MPV/SLK, and
snowfall could result in some IFR conditions for several hours
Thursday night. A slushy accumulation possible at SLK (coating to
0.6"), but no snow accumulation expected at the other TAF
locations. Rain continues at the TAF sites Thursday night with
widespread MVFR, and intervals of IFR. SE wind gusts in excess of
25kts possible at KRUT 22Z Thu thru 04Z Fri. In addition...strong
low level jet of 50 knots around 5000 feet will produce areas of
turbulence and wind shear during this time period areawide. Low
pressure departs across the Gulf of Maine during the day Friday,
with winds shifting into the NW. Will see diminishing
precipitation chances from west to east through the day. Next
system with breezy southwest winds arrives late Saturday into
Sunday with additional precip and potential impacts to aviation.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Banacos/SLW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1023 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and warm conditions will be the rule through early next week.
A weak front, with limited moisture, will traverse the forecast
area late Thursday/early Friday, with fair and warming conditions
expected Friday afternoon into the weekend. A weak dry front
moving through late Sunday/early Monday will reinforce continued
dry and warm conditions early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the northeast
through tonight. Satellite trends support high cloudiness over the
forecast area ahead of the upper trough. As the ridge shifts
eastward low-level flow will become southeasterly into the
forecast area overnight. The moisture combined with nocturnal
cooling may result in stratus or fog during the early morning
hours. However, based on crossover temperatures and upper-level
moisture limiting net radiational cooling plus low sref
probabilities expect fog will be limited. The HRRR also suggested
more widespread visibility restrictions will remain south of the
forecast area. We forecasted just patchy fog. Mos guidance
accepted so expect warmer readings than last night with
temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge over the Rockies, with upper troughiness over the E
CONUS. Surface high axis over the area weakens and pulls east
tonight into early Thursday ahead of an approaching weak surface
boundary. A weak surface boundary is expected to slowly move
through the forecast area late Thursday into Friday. Best upper
dynamics to remain to our north, with limited moisture for the
system to work with. Latest model guidance confirming limited
moisture. A blend of model guidance suggests slight chance POPS
at best, favored towards the N/NE forecast area mainly late
Thu/Thu night. High pressure will build in from the west later on
Friday into Friday night. Temperatures will be several degrees
above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Behind the weak front/trough, surface high pressure will shift
into the region late Friday into the weekend. Upper trough over
the E CONUS will lift to the north some Fri thru Sun, with upper
ridge center shifting east along the Gulf coast, providing a
continued dry WNW to NW flow aloft for our area. Models continue
to indicate a dry front moving through the area late Sunday/early
Monday. High pressure center to build into the eastern seaboard,
and also indicate a building upper ridge over the SE CONUS
Mon/Tue, appearing to ensure dry conditions, with above normal
temperatures, through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sites may experience restrictions due to low stratus and fog early
Thursday morning, but confidence is low.
Surface high pressure ridging into the Carolinas has created a
tight moisture gradient across the forecast area. Crossover
temperatures ranging from the upper 30s in the northern Midlands
to near 50 degrees in the CSRA. Models indicate increased low
level moisture advection, particularly in southern SC and the
CSRA, may lead to fog or stratus early Thursday morning.
Radiational cooling conditions will not be ideal. Broken high
clouds will continue streaming into the area overnight, increasing
insulation. Minimum temperatures are also not forecast to near the
crossover temperatures, except in the CSRA. However increasing
moisture in SE flow, decoupled winds and increasing specific
humidity with height does favor fog development. Model guidance
has also supported patchy areas of fog or stratus. Fog will be
most likely at AGS but conditions may be sufficient for patchy fog
or low clouds across the forecast area.
Thursday morning, patchy areas of fog/stratus will dissipate by
late morning with light south winds. Winds will become
southwesterly around mid-day as the cold front approaches from
the north. Limited moisture will limit the chances for showers
late Thursday as the cold front moves into the area.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Fog or stratus possible Friday morning
with some lingering low level moisture over the region.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1115 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching weather system will bring a cold rain later
tonight into Thursday with a wet snow accumulation possible from
the Northern Alleghenies into the Poconos. Chilly air will hold
its ground through the end of the work week with some moderation
in temperatures expected for Saturday before a cool down again on
Sunday with overcast skies and a chance of showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Broken precip shield entering my northwest counties
now...generally trace amounts having been reported but a recent
hourly amount of .04" over Crawford County...and this enhancement
is now over Forest County.
HRRR in good agreement with regional radar mosaic on precip
arrival...starting as a cold rain but then transitioning to a mix
with snow and maybe ice pellets...mainly after 03z along the NY/PA
border (McKean and Potter Counties). Should see a fairly quick mix
for generally the northern third of the state late tonight and
overnight. Any snow accumulations still expected to be light with
surface temperatures a couple degrees above freezing and
precipitation rates slow enough to prevent significant
accumulations...but an inch or so of snow accumulation closest to
nys border is likely. Snowprobs indicate 2" amounts possible over
the higher terrain of McKean/Potter/Tioga and Sullivan Counties.
Precipitation will spread across rest of CWA overnight. South of
I-80 temperatures will be warm enough to remain all rain but it
will be close around I-80 where some mixing is possible for a
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Milder air will change any wintry precip to plain rain early on
Thursday for the northern tier. Elsewhere look for a cold rain in
the morning with precipitation decreasing west to east in the
early afternoon. Temperatures will not rise much with most
locations seeing highs in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Downstream blocking should allow northern stream energy to phase
with the lead trough and eventually result in a negatively tilted
trough over the Northeast U.S. by Friday morning. Models show the
formation of a triple point low deepening along the coast into the
Canadian Maritimes by Saturday morning.
A brisk northwest flow may afford some lake enhancement to shower
activity Thursday night and temps are cold enough to mention
rain/snow showers especially in the orographically favored areas
downwind of Lake Erie. Overall the trend should be toward drier
conditions into Friday. The wind gusts may end up being a little
stronger than forecast on the backside of the intensifying low.
High pressure briefly returns later Friday afternoon/evening
before shifting southeast Friday night into Saturday morning as
low pressure tracks across the Upper Great Lakes.
Models and ensembles generally agree in bringing a weakening cold
front through the area on Saturday and stalling it out near the
PA/MD border. POPs are in the chance range mainly over the NW 1/2
with little in the way of moisture/QPF. The EC/GFS seem to be
trending toward the idea of a wave of low pressure developing to
the west along the wavy boundary and possibly bringing a better
chance for appreciable rainfall /0.25-0.50 inch/ to southern PA on
Sunday. Beyond Sunday, high pressure dominates the pattern
favoring dry weather.
A noticeable rebound in temperatures appears likely on Saturday
with an ensemble blend yielding highs 10-15 degrees warmer than
Friday. Temperatures may fall back on Sunday before moderating
again into early next week as southerly flow develops ahead of low
pressure in the Upper Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ceilings are continuing to lower ahead of the approaching
front/storm system. VFR conditions late this evening will begin to
deteriorate as we get deeper into the overnight.
Expect reduced conditions at BFD to begin by 06Z, spreading east
to IPT by around 09Z. UNV, JST and AOO will see lowering
conditions between about 09-12Z with MDT and LNS deteriorating
around or shortly after sunrise.
Precipitation and sub VFR conditions will should continue along
the boundary through tomorrow and into Friday.
Outlook...
Fri...AM shrasn/low cigs possible W Mtns.
Sat...SHRA w/IFR CIGs possible N PM. Otherwise no sig wx.
Sun...SHRA w/MVFR cigs N and W. Breezy NW wind.
Mon...No Sig Wx
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl
AVIATION...La Corte
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
625 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SHORT TERM.../This evening through Thursday/
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
The main forecast concern is the low stratus deck hanging
around through tomorrow morning. Inversion continues to strengthen
this evening into the overnight hours trapping the low stratus deck.
Little evidence suggests the cloud deck to erode this evening and
have increased cloud cover through 12z Thursday for the majority of
the forecast area. The inversion is probably the weakest in the
southwest, but then the this area likely see fog develop with the
light winds and low RH values. Have patchy fog past 08z Thursday
over the western portions of CWA in the event there are some breaks
in the cloud deck. The HRRR as well as a the majority of the other
hires models continue the stratus through at least 09-12z Thursday
before they suggest some holes develop in the stratus. This makes
temperatures another concern tonight. If any clearing occurs,
especially over the west in Nish Valley and across the north,
minimum temperatures likely will be off by several degrees. However,
even if breaks do occur, it`s likely to fill back in fairly quickly
and thus the potential exist for fluctuating temperatures throughout
the night.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Wednesday/
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
High pressure ridge will be stretched over central Iowa mid
Thursday morning then will move slowly east during the day. Warm
advection will be ongoing to the west of the high pressure however
a steep inversion setting up between 900-850 mb and will limit
temperature recovery. Also the steep inversion combined with the
light flow directly under the high pressure may slow the
erosion/departure of stratus over the east to northeast portion of
the area. Warm advection will increase Thursday night into Friday
as the pressure gradient increases with low pressure moving into
the Northern Plains.
The thermal ridge will pass over Iowa on Friday. A big inversion
remains aloft to start the day though should be able to mix
through a good portion of it for highs to reach the mid to upper
70s at most locations. Model profiles look too bullish on
potential high level cloudiness during the afternoon therefore
should have an abundance of sun throughout the day. A boundary
will sag into Iowa Friday night then move very slowly south during
the day Saturday as it becomes nearly parallel to the upper zonal
flow. Moisture will be quite limited along the boundary with no
precipitation expected central and south Saturday. Low chances for
precipitation north though profiles will remain dry below 700 mb
with anything that occurs remaining light. Another strong short
wave trough moving the the flow will arrive late Monday into
Monday night with the ECMWF remaining around 9 hrs slower than the
deterministic GFS and ensembles. The primary impact of the timing
will be high temperatures on Monday with the thermal ridge
becoming reestablished and potential remaining over Iowa much of
the day. Precipitation chances should be mainly relegated north of
Iowa and generally along and north of sfc low pressure that will
pass north of the state as well. High pressure will follow for
Tuesday. Precipitation chances will increase Tuesday night into
Wednesday as warm advection develops in the wake of the departing
high.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening/
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
LIFR/IFR conditons to continue through 12Z before improvement
occurs. VFR cigs and conditions should prevailby 18Z. Surface winds
will be out of the Northwest then become Southeast through the
morning. Wind speeds through 06Z will be in the 10-20kt range then
diminish some overnight and be 10kts or less tomorrow.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Podrazik
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
645 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 324 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016
After today the weather across the local forecast area of eastern
Kansas and northern Missouri will be rather benign with dry
conditions and above normal temperatures dominating the forecast
over the next week. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows us a
ridge in place to our west with the axis across the Rocky Mountains
and a shortwave trough downstream of the ridge axis, sliding east
across the Mississippi River this afternoon. The surface reflection
of the trough, a cold front, is presently sweeping southeast through
eastern Kansas and Missouri; currently along a line from
Kansas City to Kirksville.
Despite the cold front sweeping southeast today, we expect neither
more rain or even cold temperatures thanks to the ridge to our west.
As the front moves through overnight we might see clouds clear and a
bit of fog early Thursday morning, but otherwise we will just see a
wind shift late this afternoon and this evening --from southwest to
northwest--. However, the surface high behind the front is not very
large so winds will swing back to the south by Thursday afternoon
allowing temperatures to rebound for Thursday afternoon into the 60s
and 70s. Otherwise, as we look forward through the weekend, the
western ridge will expand east but flattens out as multiple fast
moving shortwave troughs continue to ride up and over the ridge. The
ridge placement will keep the storm track well to our north through
the weekend into the middle of next work week. As a result, expect
afternoon highs and overnight lows to both run well above normal
through next week. Friday might be the warmest day thanks to the
sunshine and south winds ahead of another front that will have formed
across the northern Plains, helping boost afternoon highs into the
low 80s. We are not quite forecasting record high temperatures for
Friday --record high for the 28th in KC is 84 degrees from 1944--
but we are close.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016
Challenging forecast for area terminals this evening as model
guidance is all over the place on anticipated conditions during the
overnight and early morning hours. For now...have based much of the
decision-making on latest observed satellite trends as the 11-3.9u
channel clearly shows low stratus heading south towards the KC area
terminals. That said...have trended more pessimistic with MVFR cigs
during the overnight hours...while still offering a window for
partial clearing and possible fog development during the predawn
hours. That said...clearing trend confidence remains in doubt based
on latest rapid-refresh and HRRR model solutions which keep low cigs
in the area all night. In any event...MVFR cigs likely at all sites
overnight with IXD remaining the biggest question mark as to whether
low stratus will push that far south. Will continue to monitor
trends and plan to hit details a little harder with the 06z package
once low cloud trends are better established.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...32
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1055 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.AVIATION...
Isolated convection continues to linger on the tail end of an
upper level disturbance which worked its way southeast across the
Plains this evening. Storms were close enough to impact northeast
and northwest cornerposts as well as northbound gates out of DFW
TRACON, but fortunately these storms failed to have any direct
impact on any of the taf locations. As the last of our isolated
cells near Mineral Wells rains itself out, we should have a quiet
remainder of the night. The primary concern will be to degree in
which stratus forms and how far north it penetrates. We are
sticking with the current thinking that MVFR cigs will affect
KACT, but will likely remain east and south of the Metroplex TAF
locations. Otherwise, light south winds can be expected.
30
&&
.UPDATE...
No major changes to the current forecast other than to update the
remainder of the evening forecast PoPs based on latest trends. The
weak frontal boundary is still off to the northwest...but an area
of higher low level theta-e has developed and spread across our
northwest counties this evening ahead of the boundary. This
better moisture appears to be driving the continued isolated
convection across the western counties where weak ascent persists
from a passing shortwave. The 00Z FWD sounding indicates the
presence of steep mid level lapse rates and fairly strong deep
layer shear...although this is primarily confined to the 3-6km
layer. These storms will continue to support primarily a hail
threat...although some gusty winds have been noted earlier in the
evening. Radar signatures and reports from Montague county suggest
that primarily water coated smaller hail is occurring...so at this
time the threat for significantly larger hail appears to be
minimal. Nonetheless...a marginal severe threat will continue at
least for the next couple of hours. This activity should diminish
around midnight or so as the main forcing for ascent pulls off to
the east of the area.
Dunn
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
Near and short term convective trends are the biggest challenge
with regards to the forecast. Thereafter, dry and unseasonably
warm conditions are expected through the remainder of the current
work week and into the weekend. Low rain chances return to the
region next week with a continuation of above average
temperatures.
Regional radar imagery shows convection across East Central
Oklahoma this afternoon. The convection is associated with lift
along a slow moving cold front and a shortwave trough that were
both sliding towards the south and east. Hi-resolution model
guidance has waffled a bit with the 19 UTC HRRR less aggressive
than previous runs. The latest TTU WRF has also shown a lower
areal coverage of convection. That being said, mesoanalysis
indicates that the airmass ahead of the cluster of storms
remains unstable and it`s possible that a few more clusters of
storms could develop across southeast OK and adjacent portions of
North TX. As a result, I`ll maintain highest PoPs across far
northeastern zones and I have tapered them downward towards the
south and west. I went ahead and pulled PoPs from Central TX for
tonight as it appears that the threat for nocturnal convection
should be largely diminished as the shortwave trough exits to the
east and southeast and the cold front remains to the north in
Oklahoma. Overall, the threat for widespread severe weather across
North TX appears LOW at this time as deep layer shear and
instability are marginal. There will be a threat for some strong
wind gusts and/or near-severe hail, but this threat should be
largely mitigated as the best shear and cooler air aloft (thus
instability) remain further to the north and east. Most activity
should diminish later tonight.
The next concern will be during the overnight and early Thursday
morning time periods where a potential for patchy fog exists. The
two main areas for patchy fog will be along the Red River and
across Central TX. The threat for patchy fog along the Red River
is a bit more conditional and dependent on the coverage of storms.
Right now, I`ll mention patchy fog along our northern tier of
counties where the best rain chances are forecast. Assuming rain
falls and skies clear, the light winds should support a threat for
patchy fog. If the coverage of storms is much smaller, the threat
for patchy fog may be a little overstated in the current forecast.
Farther to the south and east, clear skies and light winds should
foster a greater potential for the development of some patchy fog.
A warming trend can be expected through the weekend as an H5
ridge centers itself across the Big Country and eventually towards the
Red River. Friday appears breezy and warm as southwest winds
should help temperatures to rise well above normal values. Most
areas should experience afternoon high temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s. A similar story is expected from Saturday through
Monday. There may be some passing high clouds as a weak shortwave
trough travels around the northern periphery of the H5 ridge as
well as the diurnal build up of afternoon cumulus.
Rain chances return to the forecast next week as low level
moisture streams northward in response to lee-side cyclogenesis.
I`ve not made too many drastic changes to the long term portion of
the forecast, but low rain chances for a majority of North and
Central TX appear reasonable. With most of the strong synoptic
forcing to the north, it`s likely that this convection will be
diurnal in nature.
24-Bain
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 86 64 87 65 / 20 5 5 0 0
Waco 62 86 58 87 60 / 10 5 5 0 0
Paris 58 83 60 85 61 / 20 5 5 0 5
Denton 61 84 60 86 62 / 30 5 5 0 0
McKinney 60 84 61 85 63 / 20 5 5 0 0
Dallas 63 86 64 87 65 / 20 5 5 0 0
Terrell 62 84 60 87 62 / 30 5 5 0 0
Corsicana 62 85 60 87 62 / 10 5 5 0 0
Temple 62 85 59 87 60 / 10 5 5 0 0
Mineral Wells 61 86 60 87 60 / 20 5 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
30/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
946 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
A very notable ridge/valley temperature difference has developed
this evening, with about a 15 degree spread. High clouds are doing
very little to inhibit radiating, and the coldest eastern valleys
are already in the lower 50s, approaching original forecast lows.
Have lowered mins for tonight in eastern valleys to the upper
40s. Saturation is occurring in the colder valleys, which should
slow the fall overnight. Meanwhile, warm air advection is keeping
a light wind stirring on ridges and the more open terrain,
resulting in the warmer temps there.
UPDATE Issued at 703 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
Winds have died down more than was expected this evening, and
the forecast values have been lowered a bit. We should see an
increase late tonight (especially outside of deep valleys) as a
cold front approaches and the pressure gradient tightens.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 445 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
19z sfc analysis shows a low pressure system moving into the upper
midwest with a cold front approaching Kentucky. A warm front has
developed and lifted northeast of the CWA placing eastern
Kentucky in the warm sector of this approaching low. Plenty of
sunshine ahead of this front today sent temperatures into the mid
and upper 70s while dewpoints stayed up better than past
afternoons - only into the mid and upper 40s. Winds, meanwhile,
picked up from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph over the western
parts of the area with some gusts to 20 mph or so while they
remained a notch lighter over the eastern parts of the area.
The models are in pretty good agreement aloft through the short
term portion of the forecast as they all depict a weakening
trough moving through the Great Lakes. A band of energy will
extend south from this and traipse into and across eastern
Kentucky overnight and into Thursday morning. Low heights will
stick around through Thursday night but the southwest ridge looks
to build over southwest Texas and northeast into our area by the
end of the week. Given the general model agreement with this
pattern through Friday morning have favored the blended solution
with special attention to the higher resolution HRRR and NAM12
guidance.
Sensible weather will feature a mostly dry cold front pressing
through central and eastern Kentucky Thursday morning with at best
some scattered showers. Still cannot rule out a stray
thunderstorm with this, but for consistency sake have left them
out of the forecast - especially given the low PoPs for this
desiccating frontal passage into our dry area of late. The
shower/sprinkle chances pass by early afternoon as the front moves
on east Thursday with a change in the wind direction, a few gusts
to 25 mph from the west and cooler/drier air inbound. Accordingly,
expect temperatures to bottom out in the low to mid 40s most
places Friday morning along with some patchy valley fog. Given
that this is likely another front that will not bring significant
rain to the area we are looking to get even drier through the
weekend and into next week raising fire weather concerns as
antecedent conditions only get drier going forward.
Started with the CONSShort/ShortBlend for the bulk of the grids
with adjustments to the temps tonight and to a lesser extent on
Thursday night based on terrain distinctions. As for PoPs - did
drop them down a bit on Thursday - more toward the previous
forecast given the drying front - ending up a notch below MOS
guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
A upper level wave will be exiting to the east on Friday, as a
surface high progresses east into the region. In the wake of this
wave strong upper level ridging will build into the region. At the
surface high pressure will build into the Carolinas and warm air
advection will kick in on the backside. This ridging remains in
place until we move toward Sunday, as a northern stream shortwave
briefly suppresses the ridge. Then ridging quickly builds east
with strong heights building all the way into the Great Lakes.
Another northern stream wave will pass into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes by Monday night. A cold front will also progress east,
but will become weak by the time it makes it east.
Impacts for the period will be the above normal temps and dry
weather for most of the period. The upper level wave on Sunday
afternoon could bring a slight chance of a showers in the far
east. However would be hesitant to go much more than slight given
the dry antecedent conditions, lack of jet support, and lack of
multiple model support. Before this ahead of this wave on Saturday
will be a gusty day wind wise and could be something that needs to
be watched fire weather wise. Otherwise the period will be met
with well above normal temps, as we see highs in the mid 70s to
even around 80 for most of the period. This will put several days
especially Saturday and Tuesday into near to record highs. Matter
of fact the record high for the month of November is only 82
degrees at Jackson and London and these could also be in jeopardy.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
Primarily VFR conditions will be experienced through the period.
High clouds of this evening will lower and thicken with time,
eventually resulting in low VFR ceilings late in the period. There
could be incursions into MVFR territory at some locations late
Thursday. A few showers can`t be ruled out during the day
Thursday, in association with a cold front moving through. Winds
will increase ahead of the cold front, possibly resulting in low
level wind shear late tonight and early Thursday morning. During
the day, mixing will end any shear, but will lead to a few gusts
around 20kts from the southwest.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
642 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.AVIATION...
Winds will go light tonight as a surface high pressure system
settles over the area which will be more favorable for fog
development on Thursday morning. Fog will be possible at all TAF
sites but greater chances will exist at KLBB and KPVW. At this
point, MVFR visbys are most likely.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
SHORT TERM...
A very stout upper level high pressure ridge jutting northward into
the southwest deserts and southern Rockies this afternoon will
become our dominant weather feature by Thursday as it leans a little
to the east. This ridge in the h500 to h200 millibar layer is
unusually strong for this time of year with return rates approaching
30 years. In the short term overnight, a weak surface ridge will
dominate with modest low level moisture and light winds. Foreseeable
for patchy fog early Thursday favoring our southern and western
areas, as supported by both RAP and to some extent NAM12 and HRRR
short term solutions. Not clear if this will have potential for hard
visibility drops, as indicated by the RAP13, so may need some
clarification later. Tonight will generally be a little cooler;
drier air in the northwest should allow decent cooling below
guidance numbers that area especially. But by late Thursday morning
and for the remainder of the day, we will see considerable sun,
light winds, and warming at least 5 degrees and approaching 10
degrees above normal for some locations. RMcQueen
LONG TERM...
No big changes to the extended this iteration with warm and dry
conditions the main theme through at least early next week. The
culprit supplying the late October warmth (and dry conditions) is an
impressive upper ridge that will build squarely over the region
late week before flattening this weekend and then shifting over
the Deep South next week. Temperatures are expected to peak this
weekend when highs will be in the middle to upper 80s at most
locales. Gradually lowering heights/thicknesses should allow
temperatures to edge downward early next week, though they will
likely still reside on the warm side of average. Eventually
increasing low-level moisture and some form of an upper level
disturbance approaching from the west may supply a chance of rain
to the region by next Wednesday or Thursday, though details remain
sketchy at this point.
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
01
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
616 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
An upper level system is passing over the state this
evening...with some light rain or showers possible at the central
and SRN sites over the next few hrs. As this system moves east of
the state...winds will remain fairly light overnight...with some
patchy fog possible at some terminals. Expect any fog to dissipate
after sunrise Thu...with VFR conditions expected for the rest of
the TAF period...along with light and variable winds.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 221 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016)
DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of rain with the
current upper system and cold front affecting the region. Any risk
of strong or severe storms. Finally a temperature forecast before
and then after the front moves into Ar.
Did see early morning fog over parts of AR, especially central
locations, which dissipated an hour or two after sunset. Not
expecting much tonight with more mixing in the atmosphere. The
upper shortwave system is currently moving into the region, and
developing isolated to scattered convection. The cold front is
located in eastern OK to western MO, while the upper system has
made progress to western AR to central MO. Overall trend has be
weakening as the convection moves southeast. The convection will
gradually move southeast later this afternoon to more in the
evening. Only a marginal risk of strong to severe storms remains
in the forecast, mainly over OK. Temperatures were running in the
70s in most locals, while some around 80 were seen in the south.
Late morning update will again fine tune convection chances and
temperatures.
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday Night
Will start the forecast with clouds and a low chance of convection
over northwest to northern AR. This gradually transitions to
central AR as the upper system moves through the region tonight.
Models as consistent with this trend, while HRRR holds some
weakening convection moving through the state tonight, then ending
by Thursday morning. As mentioned, the strong storm risk remains
low, and mainly in far western AR to OK. Moisture is limited over
AR and rain amounts are forecast to be only a few hundreds to a
few tenths. Thursday to Friday, surface and upper high pressure
systems again build in over the region, and bring dry weather and
warming temperatures. Lows will be in the 50s to 60s. While highs
in the 70s to mainly 80s. A few record temperatures will be seen
to the end of the week, with highs running 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, especially over central to southern AR.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday Night
Overall the sensible weather looks to be rather benign through
the extended period with virtually no chance of rain until the
very end. While there are some discrepancies between the models,
especially later in the period, these differences would not have a
meaningful impact on the overall pattern. As such, a blend of
solutions will be used this afternoon.
The period initiates with a fairly active northern branch but over
the southern plains and southeast conus, upper level ridging will
largely dominate. A weak system passing to the north of the state
will knock the ridging down briefly Saturday night and early Sunday
before reestablishing itself.
Another boundary ties to drop down on Tuesday with little impact
expected with a more significant system possible as the period
concludes. Will leave the forecast dry for now and take a wait and
see approach for next week.
Southerly flow will keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal
into early next week. Temperatures cool off somewhat after but will
still remain above normal through the entire period.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
739 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 407 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level shortwave
over the wrn Great Lakes. The heaviest pcpn associated strong 800-
600 mb fgen was sliding to the south from ne WI into cntrl lower MI.
An area of rain with 700-300 qvector conv associated with the shrtwv
had spread across wrn and srn Upper Michigan but was slow in moving
into the drier airmass to the north and east. Over the southeast,
bands of lake effect rain have moved off of Lake Michigan
northwestard from ESC into sw Marquette county.
Tonight, although the models have trended slower and weaker with the
pcpn advancing into the region, expect at least some light pcpn over
most of the cwa with the highest pops/amounts remaining over the
south and only chance pops over the Keweenaw. NAM/GFS wet-bulb zero
heights suggest that the pcpn will change to or mix with snow over
the inland/higher terrain over the west half through the interior
east. Minor snow accumulations of less than a half inch may be
possible but with the relatively warm ground, would mainly be on
grassy surfaces.
Thursday, With the mid-level trough axis beginning to moving off to
the east, any lingering light rain/snow showers over the east half
in the morning will end by afternoon as ridging and q-vector
div/subsidence build in from the west. Additional light lake effect
rain may also linger from near ESC-MNM with ENE flow and 850 mb
temps near -3C. Clouds may linger through day though due to a lack
of good mixing and persistent low-level moisture trapped beneath the
strengthening subsidence inversion.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
Made no significant changes to blended initialization as blends
handled low impact weather satisfactorily and accounted for
uncertainty in the extended. Only hazards of interest (with any
level of confidence) are potential for breezy southerly winds Fri
and gusty southerly winds on Monday, both of which the blends
represent well given the uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 739 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
Low pressure over Wisconsin continues to spread precipitation and
low ceilings across Upper Michigan this evening. MVFR conditions to
prevail at KCMX and KIWD through much of the forecast, with IFR
ceilings through much of the forecast at KSAW where upslope flow and
best forcing...and thus better chances for precipitation...to occur.
IFR conditions at KSAW to end as upslope diminishes on Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 407 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
SE winds to 30 knots will diminish late tonight into Thu as a trough
crosses the area. An approaching low pressure system on Fri will
allow south winds to increase to 20-30 kts, strongest on eastern Lk
Superior where gale gusts could be possible late on Fri. The low is
expected to cross over or near Lake Superior Fri night, shifting the
winds to NW to 20-30 knots late Fri night into Saturday. Gale gusts
could again occur over north central and eastern sections through
Sat morning. Winds will gradually diminish to under 20 knots through
the day Sunday. Winds may increase to 30 knots again Monday ahead of
the next low.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
954 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Narrow band of showers is indicated on the mosaic graphic. This
activity is located along the MS river and extends northward
across far western KY. The precip is located along the eastward
moving shortwave. Some very light isol shower activity is
indicated across southwest middle TN but this may be no more
sprinkles at this time.
The aforementioned shortwave will traverse the area through 12z.
HRRR does bring the precip eastward but it is expected to weaken
some. Moisture profiles are not in support of any deep layer of
moisture in association with the shortwave.
Will opt to keep the pops at 20 percent. Many areas will receive
very light shower activity but it may not measure. Best chance for
any functional shower activity tonight still looks as though it
will be aft midnight. Otw, no changes to current fcst.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR conditions expected to continue thru 27/24Z. Weak frontal system
approaching midstate should bring with it only the possibility of
light shwrs to terminals, and with actual location development
hard to pinpoint, will mention vcnty remarks only, confined to the
27/08Z W to 27/17Z E time frame. Will transition from high level
bkn cirrus slowly to stratus around 5 kft, before transitioning
back toward SKC conditions approaching 27/24Z, as upper level ridging
influences build across the region. Weak Sfc front may move into
cntrl portions of mid state by 27/24Z, but question whether sfc
pressure gradient will be strong enough to support significant sfc
gusts ahead of it, so did not mention, but iso gusts certainly not
out of the question. Southwesterly sfc winds in the 5 to 10 kt
range will become nwly behind sfc frontal passage.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........31
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
836 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring rain to the region tonight and Thursday.
Dry and cool weather returns for Friday. Warmer but unsettled
weather is anticipated for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pre-frontal precipitation of rain with a mixture of light sleet
has shifted to the northeast. Therefore, have updated late
evening PoPs based on radar and latest HRRR trends for the late
evening update. Previous discussion follows.
PoPs are forecast to progressively increase overnight as an
approaching low pressure system strengthens resulting from a
deepening upper trough shifting across the Great Lakes. On
Thursday, categorical PoPs are placed over the north where
sufficient lift and moisture are expected to reside. The frontal
passage is slated for Thursday afternoon and thereafter sweep
away the rain to the east. Lingering precipitation over the
higher terrain is then expected due to cool northwest flow.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal through the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold advection behind the departing low pressure will be brief,
but shower chances should continue through Thursday night. Some
snow may mix in as well, especially north of I-80 and in the high
terrain. High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley for Friday
with lingering cloud cover to likely hold temperatures down a
little. With the progressive upper level pattern, another system
is expected to approach late on Saturday with chances for showers
increasing by the afternoon. Warm advection ahead of this system
should allow for temperatures 5-10 degrees above seasonal
averages.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models are in relatively good agreement for the start of the
long term, with another shortwave expected to cross along a slow
moving boundary over the Ohio Valley on Sunday. After this time,
the models evolve the next low pressure system over the northern
Plain/Canadian border differently, so a blend of model guidance
was used. Overall, expect temperatures to remain at or just
slightly above seasonal averages through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main concern overnight will be potential for LLWS as surface winds
have decoupled from stronger winds already being observed via
RAOB/VWP/MDCRS observations. LLWS potential will continue into
morning. The potential will lessen somewhat as surface winds
increase this morning.
CIGS/VIS will remain VFR the remainder of the evening with MVFR
conditions developing after midnight as low pressure approaches
from the west.
Areas north of Pittsburgh will likely see IFR by sunrise and
continue for much of the day until winds shift and drier air moves
in mid/late afternoon.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR returns by Friday. More restrictions are possible this
weekend with another front.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1034 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses Thursday with showers. High pressure Friday
into Saturday. A weak cold front Saturday night or Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1030 PM Wednesday...
Forecast on track only minor tweaks to PoP timing.
As of 230 PM Wednesday...
Radar has been picking some echoes aloft with the warm front and
10kft ceilings. These have since moved out of the areas, with a
decrease in cloud cover over the I-64 corridor.
Warm advection is occurring aloft, and expect that to continue
into the overnight. This will keep overnight lows from dropping
very far at all, and have these lows generally a couple of degrees
above the guidance numbers.
Overall, kept the consistency in the timing of the line of showers
late tonight entering Perry/Morgan counties in Ohio. Southern end
of the front is acting frontolytically, so the POPs in this area
tonight into Thursday are largely capped at chance. Even where the
POPs are higher across the northern tier of counties, the QPF for
this front and the accompanying upper level open wave are low.
Most places will see less than a tenth of an inch of rain through
12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM Wednesday...
Models showing strong cold air advection Thursday night behind the
cold front. With some low level moisture remaining near the
mountains in the northwest flow, can not rule out some light rain or
drizzle. A warm front will then push northward across the area on
Friday. With the low level moisture having dried out by then, no
precipitation is expected with the front. High pressure then builds
in Friday night and remains into Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Wednesday...
Lots of uncertainty with the timing of a cold front moving through
sometime between Saturday night and Sunday night, with a possible
wave along the front. Therefore, will keep pops fairly generic
without specific timing. Uncertainty in the pattern continues into
the next week with a wide spread of solutions between models.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1030 PM Wednesday...
VFR. Winds veer to the southwest in the 10 to 15 kt range as rain
moves into the northern terminals early Thursday. Some MVFR
visibilities possible in -SHRA when rain arrives. Almost added
some LLWS to TAFs, but only the HRRR model is showing significant
low level winds developing overnight. So I went with the consensus
guidance instead. Latest VWP 925 mb winds do show some 35 kt
values near KLVX, so HRRR may have a better handle on this. Still
not confident enough for inclusion in TAFs this far east.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain may vary. LLWS may be an issue
if the HRRR model is correct. If so, it would be WS010/21035KT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 10/27/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Brief MVFR to IFR conditions possible in showers Thursday evening.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY/30
AVIATION...JW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
338 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Currently...a weak surface cold front had moved south into north
central ND...allowing temperatures to drop quickly into the 30s. Low
level moisture in place with radiational cooling has increased fog
formation in the Devils Lake Basin and westward into the Minot area.
The visibilities had dropped to 1/4 mile in this area as well. The
question is whether this dense fog will persist...or begin to
dissipate because a large area of mid-level clouds was moving
east/southeast across ND. The mid level clouds covered all of
southwestern ND and into the south central. As the clouds advance
eastward, we are thinking that will raise surface temperatures just
enough to keep visibilities from being as low as 1/4 mile
(dense fog). On the other hand, the HRRR model indicates that the
area of dense fog should expand in all directions from the Devils
Lake Basin.
Expect that any low clouds or fog that develops will erode from
southwest to northeast today. A building upper level ridge and
low/mid level warming with southwest winds aloft spreading from
southwestern ND northeastward. Expect temperatures to climb into the
lower 70s southwest...but reach only into the upper 50s in the
Turtle Mountains through the James Valley.
Tonight the upper level ridge axis moves east into Minnesota and
the ridge flattens as shortwave energy impulses approach ND. The
shortwave will induce a surface low over MT Thursday afternoon.
This low is forecast to move east into central ND by daybreak
Friday. South winds ahead of the low and westerly winds behind it
should keep the overnight low temperatures quite mild in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
A cold front extending westward from the surface low over central ND
Friday daybreak is forecast to move southeast across the state as
the surface low moves east into MN. A breezy day with northwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph and highs from the mid 50s northwest to the
upper 60s south central. A secondary push of much colder air is
forecast to move into ND Friday night. Expect northwest winds to
remain at 10 to 20 mph with overnight lows in the 30s. An upper
level shortwave moving northeast across the Rockies Friday will
approach the western Dakotas Friday night and bring chances of
rain...possibly mixed with snow...mainly over southern counties
Friday night and Saturday.
The coolest day will be Saturday when the center of the cold Canadian
high reaches ND by late Saturday afternoon. Look for highs only in
the 40s.
The flow aloft remains progressive, and a vigorous shortwave moving
northeast across the Rockies will bring another chance of rain
Sunday night and Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday look dry with seasonable temperatures with
highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
The forecast challenge for the 06Z TAF period is fog. KDIK and KISN
are expected to have prevailing VFR conditions, while fog is
forecast to impact KJMS...KMOT and perhaps KBIS. Dense fog was
already reported in the Devils Lake Basin including Rugby/Devils
Lake and eastward. Short term high res HRRR model indicates fog
expanding this morning to encompass along and east of the
Coteau...thus KMOT and KJMS are included. However...inhibiting the
fog is a large area of mid level clouds over southwestern ND moving
east. Thus confidence is low regarding the areal coverage and timing
of any light or dense fog at KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. Have a hint of light
fog at KMOT/KBIS but put MVFR/IFR vsbys at KJMS. Expect KJMS to
become vfr around 18z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
421 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Surface low pressure was located over northern Indiana early this
morning, with an inverted trough extending back across portions
of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. This was providing
enough lift for IFR ceilings and patchy drizzle across northern
portions of the cwa. Stratus blankets the entire region early this
morning within cyclonic flow. Satellite shows the back edge of the
stratus deck approaching central Iowa, with the erosion tied to
leading edge of developing 925 mb warm advection and also NVA aloft.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Cloud trends with impact on temps, and fog potential are the main
concerns.
00z DVN raob shows a fairly deep low level moisture to above 900
mb beneath strong inversion, thus it would appear any erosion of
stratus will be a slow process. However, 925 mb warm advection and
NVA aloft, working in tandem for the erosion to our west, look to
overspread the cwa toward midday through afternoon and should
bring about decreasing clouds generally from southwest to northeast.
Prior to that will likely have some patchy drizzle mainly in the
northern counties until mid morning. Also, a weak disturbance
in northwest flow is generating some light returns /sprinkles/
across portions of southeast North Dakota into west-central
Minnesota early this morning. Last few runs of HRRR/RAP have been
bringing some of this activity down toward the cwa later today
but diminishing likely due to subsidence, and therefore left out
mention. Goes without saying high temperatures today will be
quite challenging and dependent on clearing trends/timing. Would
expect the warmest readings (around 60/lower 60s) in the southwest
cwa where decreasing clouds likely to occur sooner. Coolest
readings likely in the northern cwa where any clearing likely last
to arrive, and as result there is some potential to stay in the
upper 40s along the Highway 20 corridor.
Tonight, any low clouds should be exiting north/east cwa by early
in the evening with mainly clear skies outside of some thin cirrus.
Strengthening warm/moist advection over a cooler/wet boundary
layer brings about concerns for some advection fog and possibly
even stratus north of a developing warm front. Some of the hi-res
models including the NMM and HRRR are also picking up on this
potential. I have therefore added patchy fog mention for the
overnight hours. Can`t rule out some of the fog being dense.
Temperatures may bottom out in the evening or around midnight before
becoming steady, if not rising a couple degrees due to continued
strengthening 925 mb warm advection and increasing southerly winds.
Continue to see MAV and MET guidance running too cool of late and
have sided toward blend of 2M temps favoring closer to ECMWF, with
lows ranging mostly from the lower 40 northeast cwa to the lower 50s
southwest cwa.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Friday and Friday Night: Low pressure tracking along the
U.S./Canadian border will drag a +16 C 850mb thermal ridge through
the Upper Mississippi Valley. Breezy SW sfc winds gusting 25-35 mph
(isolated near 40 mph) and daytime mixing to result in optimal
warming, allowing temps to reach near 70 F far N/NE CWA to upper 70s
SW. Highest gusts are forecast in counties NW of a Fairfield, IA to
Freeport, IL line. Winds lower overnight but remain out of the south
and sfc dewpoints are forecast to hover in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
This will lead to a very mild night. Forecast lows near 60 F (on
avg) are roughly 20 F degrees above normal.
Saturday...
Temperatures: A cold front is forecast to sink southward through the
CWA during afternoon and evening. 850mb temps will eventually fall
below 12 C, but models have delayed the significant cooling until
the late afternoon or evening. Thinking the north to south max temp
gradient is going to be at least 10-15 F degrees. Have mid 60s far
north to upper 70s far south at this time - a few degrees above
model consensus.
Precipitation: Models now in better agreement grazing the CWA with
light QPF during the evening/overnight along the cold front/zone of
sfc convergence. Have 20-40 POPs for most of the area.
Sunday: Mid-level ridging will ensue setting up another stretch of
above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather. Highs are forecast
slightly above seasonal normals.
Monday and Tuesday: The mid-level ridge amplifies on Monday in
response to a digging trough in the Western U.S. Models have 1000-
500mb thicknesses peaking near 570 dam. The synoptic pattern
supports well above avg highs in the 70s and breezy conditions. Weak
cold front ushers in slightly cooler air for Tuesday. This front is
important because it is forecast to stall out across E Iowa/NW
Illinois and may become the focus for rounds of rain and isolated
storms by mid to late week.
Wednesday and Thursday: Better agreement/higher confidence in
active pattern developing in the Central U.S., including the Upper
Mississippi Valley.
In the initial stages of the pattern change, a warm front will
likely be the focus for repeated rounds of showers and
isolated/embedded storms. Upper-level vort. maxes are forecast to
ride along this low-level baroclinic zone from the Southwest U.S.
Will have to watch PWAT forecasts over the next several days because
the GFS is advecting anomalously high values of +1.25" into the area
via an 850mb connection to the Western Gulf. Potential is there for
significant rain but it is too far away to get into the details.
Looking further ahead: The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting
strong signals for above average temperatures through the first two
weeks of November. This would be the average temperature of the
period. Below average individual days are certainly possible. Uttech
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
MFVR clouds will be in place across the region overnight into
Thursday morning. Expect periods of IFR ceilings and possibly MVFR
visibilities, especially as the pressure gradient begins to relax
overnight and the northwest wind drops off to around 5 knots.
Partial clearing will occur from south to north across TAF sites
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McClure
SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...RP Kinney
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Forecast highlights the next 7-10 days: Continued above normal
temperatures through Monday-Tuesday, cooler by mid-late week.
Precipitation chances entering back into the picture by Tuesday
night-Wednesday.
Light winds, radiational cooling, steep inversion and a
moistening boundary layer should support patchy to areas of dense
fog spreading/expanding north early this morning generally
along/southeast of the KS Turnpike. Relied heavily on RAP and HRRR
model soundings. The dense fog should dissipate by around 10 am.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Continued above normal temperatures are expected through at least
mid next week, as the main polar jet and associated chilly air
remain bottled up in Canada. Thinking the warmest days will be
Friday, Saturday and Monday, with most areas likely getting into
the 80s, which will flirt with daily record highs, especially
Friday and Monday. A weak cool front will pass through dry
Saturday-Saturday night, with a slight cool down into the 70s
Sunday, although these readings will still be about 10 degrees
above normal. After the aforementioned warm up Monday, another
weak cool front should cool us back into the 70s Tues-Wed. Chances
are increasing that we`ll finally return closer to normal mid-late
next week.
Precipitation-wise, although timing between latest GFS and ECMWF
remains uncertain, both indicate chances for meaningful
precipitation returning to the region sometime mid-late next week.
Finally, winds will be rather stout/gusty out of the south,
Friday, Saturday and Monday, as strengthening low pressure
approaches from the west.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
The potential for LIFR vsbys (FG) is very high acrs SE KS from
~08Z til 14Z that would include KCNU. As Thu Mrng progresses, the
fog wl lift acrs SE KS w/ abt a 2-hour pd of 1,000-1,500ft cigs at
KCNU. Areas of BR are lkly at KICT & KSLN altho vsbys shud be no
worse than MVFR. By ~15Z S/SW winds incr to 13-17kts sustained alg
& W of I-135.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 78 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 79 59 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 76 59 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
ElDorado 76 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 77 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 81 59 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 81 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 80 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 78 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 77 58 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 74 56 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 74 56 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 76 57 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ052-053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
422 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Mid level short trof just
west of the lower MS river valley early this morning will dampen
further east across the north central gulf states today then shift
east of the forecast area by 12z fri. Ahead of this system a few
isolated showers were noted over central parts of MS tracking
eastward quickly most likely passing north of the forecast area
later this morning and this afternoon.
Other showers were located offshore mostly south of the MS coast
tracking westward. Latest model soundings continue to show very
limited moisture across the forecast area today and tonight leading
to isolated coverage across western and coastal areas of the
forecast area through this afternoon. Latest hi res data both the
HRRR and RUC13 continue to support this reasoning depicting very
limited coverage also occurring mostly offshore and to the west.
As a result will stay close to the current forecast for inland areas
today decreasing the coverage to slight chance or isolated offshore
also. Latest model soundings also depict limited instability
suggesting any measurable rain that does occur will continue to be
in the form of light showers. With a light onshore flow during the
afternoon and evening hours yesterday some low level moisture has
advected inland ahead of this system leading to some patchy fog near
the sfc. With sfc dewpts in the lower to middle 60s generally along
and south of the I-10 corridor believe the best coverage of fog will
be over inland areas generally over the lower half of the forecast
area early this morning. For late tonight and early fri morning with
less mixing in the boundary layer thus leading to better decoupling
near the sfc believe we will see better coverage of fog...mainly
radiational...occurring over most inland areas beginning around
midnight tonight continuing through about 14z or 8am fri morning.
With light winds near the sfc fog could become dense at times
occurring mostly an hour or two before sunrise. Will continue to
monitor this fog situation closely and issue any advisories if
needed. Day and night temps will continue to be above seasonal
averages climbing to the middle 80s inland...lower 80s near the
coast followed by lows in the middle 50s well inland and the
upper 50s to lower 60s closer to the coast. 32/ee
.SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...Upper energy moving
east over the US/Canadian border will flatten an upper ridge
stretching north over the US plains into the weekend. By Saturday
evening, it stretches east over the northern Gulf coast from
Southern Plains, but then begins to rebuild into Sunday over the
Plains as upper energy digs south over the West Coast and the
Northeast. Surface high pressure centered over the Tennessee/Ohio
River Valleys gets pushed south, becoming centered over the
Southeast. With subsidence from the upper ridge maintaining control
over the FA and surrounding areas, temperatures remain above seasonal
levels. Highs in the mid to upper 80s, closer to 80 along the coast,
expected. Lows in the mid to upper 50s, low 60s along the coast. dry
northeast to east flow will help to create a dry forecast, with no
rain expected.
/16
.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...An upper ridge rebuilds over
the Plains, then swings east as the western Conus system swings east
and another digs south over the East coast. Ultimately, the upper
ridge moves east of the Mississippi River by Wednesday, then stalls.
With continued subsidence from the ridge over the FA through the
extended, temperatures well above seasonal continue. Also, the
surface ridge over the Southeast shifts north, to over the
Appalachians through the extended, restoring onshore flow by mid
week. Up to this point, moisture levels are not expected to rise high
enough for showers to return to the forecast, so a dry forecast is
expected to continue.
/16
&&
.MARINE...A weak mid to upper level disturbance tracking eastward
across the region today and tonight will help lead to more isolated
showers across the marine area mainly today. Weak high pressure near
the surface will persist through early fri then strengthen from the
north and northeast as a surface ridge over the mid Atlantic region
and se states builds south. This pattern will continue to lead to a
light to moderate easterly flow through early next week with better
winds and seas occurring during the overnight and morning hours due
to a better thermal gradient setting up each night. Seas will
continue to range from 3 to 5 feet well offshore through Sun then
begin to subside slowly by early next week. 32/ee
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 83 60 85 58 / 20 10 0 0
Pensacola 82 63 82 63 / 20 10 0 0
Destin 81 66 82 65 / 10 0 0 0
Evergreen 85 56 86 55 / 10 0 0 0
Waynesboro 85 56 86 55 / 10 0 0 0
Camden 85 58 86 56 / 10 0 0 0
Crestview 85 56 87 53 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 439 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016
Trends in regional radar loop over last few hours have shown a
diminishing trend to rain/snow across east half of Upper Michigan
well to the north of sfc low moving across far southern lower
Michigan. Based on obs and latest radar imagery, about the only snow
left is over far east cwa vcnty of Newberry. MDOT web cam images
early this morning showed snow coming down at good clip for eastern
cwa and vsby at ERY dropped blo 2sm for a time. Looks like roads
remained wet though with any snow accums staying mainly on the grass.
WV loop and RAP analysis show shortwave trough that caused the
rain/snow early this morning is centered over far eastern Upper
Michigan with shortwave ridging over western Upr Michigan. Even
though secondary shortwave trough is well to northwest near Lk
Winnipeg in Manitoba band of moisture and mid-level q-vector
convergence and a hint of steeper mid level lapse rates has supported
a batch of showers over northern MN this morning. Timing this out on
to the east, could see light rain/snow showers over far west cwa
before daybreak and over rest of northern half of cwa into the
morning before the primary forcing with the wave lifts north and
this precip fades away. Another area of possible precip today will be
over scntrl cwa as east-northeast winds on north side of h85 low over
northern Lower Michigan support scattered lake effect there this
morning as h85 temps of -3c flow over northern Lk Michigan water
temps of 15c. Ptype with the lake effect should be mainly rain due
mostly to near sfc temps well into the 30s or lower 40s over northern
Lk Michigan. Winds in blyr backing more northerly late morning into
early aftn should end the possible lake effect. After secondary
shortwave passes by early this aftn, weak sfc ridge quickly moves
across which allows winds to become more sw-s as area will be on west
side of the ridge and on the south edge of sfc low crossing northern
Ontario. Even with southwest winds, plenty of low clouds should keep
temps in the 40s for most areas today.
Quiet tonight with steady sw winds as low pressure moves over the
Northern Plains. Coolest temps tonight will be over far east where
it could dip blo freezing. Temps above freezing elsewhere with winds
keeping the temps up. With the developing warm air advection pattern
could be light precip try to form late across Lk Superior and maybe
over Keweenaw. Ptype all rain though as sfc temps for those areas
will be upper 30s to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 459 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016
Beginning Fri...Models trending somewhat weaker with Pacific system
lifting across the northern CONUS/Canadian border and arriving into
the Upper Great Lakes region late Fri. Models also trending drier
with system for much of Upper Mi. 00Z NAM and GFS indicating best
isentropic ascent from system will generally be focused ne of CWA
and only brushing eastern counties with lowest condensation pres
deficits on 300-305K sfcs suggesting a period of light rain possible
over the eastern CWA, with otherwise mostly dry conditions
elsewhere. Abundant dry air in mid-levels as noted on Newberry NAM
forecast sounding may even make it difficult to precipitate over the
eastern counties on Fri. South winds ahead of the approaching low
and associated cold front could get gusty on Friday, especially over
the eastern counites where gradient will be tightest ahead of the
approaching low over the Northern Plains and the high centered over
the Ohio Valley. Mixed layer off forecast soundings would suggest
afternoon wind gusts to 25 mph over many of central counties and
perhaps gusts as high as 35 mph at some eastern locations. NAM
soundings also suggest the potential for west wind gusts to 35 mph
late Fri evening/early overnight over the Keweenaw Peninsula with
the system`s cold frontal passage. Elsewhere, west wind gusts with
frontal passage should be no more than 25 mph. Models have backed
off on strength of nw winds associated with secondary trough/frontal
passage late Fri night into Sat so again expect not much more than
nw gusts of 25 mph. Look for temps rebounding mainly into the 50s
under warm advection regime.
Sat-Sun...with forecast of weaker secondary cold frontal passage not
expecting much in way of lingering showers early Sat with exiting
Pacific system. Models however indicate a shortwave riding along
departed frontal boundary just to the south which could bring a line
of rain showers into the far south central CWA late Sat into Sat
evening aided by divergence in right entrance region of 110-120 kt
h25-30 jet max and assoc 7h fgen. Otherwise, expect mostly dry
conditions across the area heading into Sunday as ridging moves back
in from the west. Expect high temps ranging from the mid 40s north
to lower 50s south for the weekend.
Mon-Tue...Monday into Monday night looks potentially wetter again at
least over northern and eastern portions of the forecast area as a
vigorous Pacific shortwave emerges off the CA coast Sunday and
approaches the Upper Great Lakes from the Northern Plains on Monday.
Although there are minor timing differences, the medium range models
are actually in pretty good agreement with track of the deepening
sfc low (around 990 mb per model consensus) across northern Lake
Superior/MN Arrowhead into Ontario Mon night. The deepening low will
likely result in gusty southerly winds ahead of the system Mon into
Mon evening and gusty westerly winds behind the associated cold
frontal passage late Mon night into Tue. The track of the shortwave
and associated sfc low will favor the northern and eastern portions
of the CWA for pcpn Mon into Mon night...closer to best isentropic
ascent. Showers will be decreasing by Tue with q-vector divergence
and drying in the wake of the frontal passage. Temps will again rise
well into 50s on Mon with strong warm advection and likely continue
mild through much of Mon night for the Halloween trick-or-treaters.
Temps will cool off slightly behind the front on Tue but should
still stay above normal, generally in the lower to mid 50s.
Uncertainty with operational models increases out to mid to late
next week although the GFS and ECMWF ensembles suggest ridging and
generally drier weather may hold into Wed and Thu.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 138 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016
IFR ceilings continue at KSAW as easterly flow continues there. With
winds shifting a little more northeast and decreasing later
overnight expect light snow/rain to come to an end with ceilings
improving from IFR into MVFR during the early daylight hours. KCMX
will stay MVFR through the forecast while KIWD will start of MVFR and
perhaps IFR early on and then improve to VFR before 0Z Friday.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 439 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016
SE winds mainly 20 kts or less today as pressure gradient briefly
relaxes. SW winds increase late tonight ahead of developing low
pressure system over the northern Plains. South winds will increase
to 20-30 kts on Fri, strongest on eastern Lk Superior where gale
gusts could be possible late Fri afternoon. The low is expected to
cross over or near Lake Superior Fri night, shifting the winds to NW
to 20-30 knots late Fri night into Saturday. Winds will gradually
diminish to under 20 knots through the day Sunday. Another round of
strong S-SE winds to 30 kts are expected on Mon out ahead of low
pressure tracking across the northern Plains. Gales may occur over
eastern sections Mon aftn into Mon evening. The low will cross Lk
Superior by Tue morning shifting the winds to W and there may be
gales during this time as well.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...JLA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
302 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
The cold front is just entering our far northwest counties as of
08Z. Isolated light showers/sprinkles continue across the southeast
half of the area, and according to the latest HRRR runs, they
should progress eastward and out of the area shortly after 12Z.
The main issue for today is how long the low stratus will linger
over the area behind the front. The 00Z NAM and GFS are in
reasonable agreement in clearing the northeast around 18Z, and the
southern portions of the area after 21Z. Tried to show these
trends in the Sky Cover grids. As a result went on the lower end
of guidance for highs today.
There will be decent dry advection behind the cold front today,
but the winds will die off this evening, as the surface high
settles overhead. With the late clearing expected over much of the
area, fog development or the re-development of low clouds will be
a strong possibility tonight. Not sure if the dry advection will
have much of an impact on the fog potential, so for now will just
mention patches or areas of fog for much of the region. A Dense
Fog Advisory may ultimately be needed tonight, but need to get
the clouds out of here before getting serious about that
possibility.
High pressure aloft will build over the region Friday into
Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will build east of the
area on Friday allowing south winds to return to the region. They
are likely to stay up Friday night and increase and become gusty
on Saturday. All of this will lead to a strong warming trend and
dry weather through Saturday.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs today, then stayed close
to consensus for lows tonight. Thereafter, generally went above
guidance for highs and lows. Much of the region should climb into
the 80s on Saturday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Ridging remains dominant across the WFO PAH forecast area through
Monday. Warm air advection increase slightly from the west on Monday
in advance of a shortwave trough in the Dakotas on Monday, moving
into the Western Great Lakes early Tuesday. The frontal zone with
this shortwave never moves into the WFO PAH forecast area, serving
only to increase the ageostrophic response with more warm air
advection.
The West Coast closed low finally moves onshore and toward New
Mexico late Wednesday night. Both the 00z Thursday ECMWF and GFS
guidance hint at an increase in deep layer moisture around the low
level ridge east of the WFO PAH forecast area after next Tuesday.
Although not ideal, both models suggest that there may be support
for pre-frontal, weak warm advection (conveyor belt) shower
activity. Really can`t argue either way from the initialized
regionally blended model guidance output, so left a small chance for
showers in place for parts of the forecast area Wednesday and
Thursday.
Collaboratively adjusted max temperatures up 1 degree Tuesday and
Wednesday in advance of the approaching closed low in New Mexico.
Otherwise, no other significant changes to regionally blended
guidance in the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Scattered rain showers will be spotty early in the period but
should come to an end by 09-10Z. Frontal boundary has yet to
arrive but will do so during the overnight period and into
Thursday morning. Behind the winds shifting to the northwest,
cigs will likely drop to MVFR and remain there for most of the
morning. We should see cigs scatter out/become VFR after 18Z.
Winds will remain out of the northwest aob 10 kts. Winds will
become rather light to calm Thursday night which will likely set
the stage for some fog beyond this TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
349 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
A weak quasi stationary boundary is roughly along and/or just
south of I-44. Areas of dense fog are developing or have developed
near and south of the front over sw MO, while layered stratus was
occurring to the north. A dense fog advisory remains in affect for
the western/southwestern cwfa, but some near term adjustments may
be needed as trends warrant.
A weak sfc ridge will move east through our area today with low
clouds/fog burning off slowly. It wouldn`t be shocking to see
some clouds hold on into the afternoon over southern MO with a
lack of mixing, fairly deep moisture, and low late October sun
angles.
SREF and RAP (RAP through 04z) guidance indicates stratus/fog
redevelopment over at least some of southern MO tonight,
especially south central MO.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Unseasonably warm weather is expected to continue. Breezy/windy
and warm weather is expected Fri-Sat as the sfc high shifts off to
the east and another front approaches from the west. This next
front looks to stall/weaken over the area late Sat night into
Sunday followed by another repeat of the gusty south winds (Mon)
followed by a weak/stalled sfc front (Tue). Shortwaves associated
with these sfc boundaries pass largely off to our north so am not
expecting any significant precipitation.
There is some potential for change by mid/late week next week as
both of the ECMWF and GFS show a lower latitude disturbance
moving from the Rockies into the Plains. Better rain chances hold
off until after day 7, but we do have some precip chances by Wed.
There are still some timing differences in guidance with the ops
GFS faster versus the ECMWF.
After some brushes with generally light frost earlier in the
month, we definitely aren`t looking at anything close to a
killing freeze over the next few days. It looks like we will head
into November much warmer than normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
be dealing with MVFR and IFR flight conditions later tonight and
into Thursday morning.
A frontal system will be sagging into southern Missouri tonight,
bringing some low ceilings along with areas of dense fog. Surface
winds will be light and variable.
At this time we do not anticipate any more showers or
thunderstorms developing along the front.
Safe Travels.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ066-067-
077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-
101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1037 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will impact the region this afternoon
through Friday with a wintry mixture of snow and rain. Some
accumulating snow is expected with the higher amounts over the
mountains. As this storm intensifies over eastern New England on
Friday, snow and rain showers will linger with a gusty northwest
winds. A period of tranquil weather is expected Friday night before
the next storm system set to impact the region this weekend with
mainly rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1037 AM EDT...Strong isentropic lift is occurring ahead of
the warm front over PA and the mid-Atlantic region...as low
pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes...as high pressure
moves eastward into eastern Quebec.
This update focuses on the latest radar and observational trends
for adjustments into the afternoon in terms of ptype and snow
amounts. Latest NY MESONET web cams show snow in the mid Hudson
Valley and eastern Catskills. It looks likes an inch has fallen at
Red Hook in northern Dutchess County. We have increased the totals
to an inch or two there. The winter weather advisories remain up
for the eastern Catskills...Schoharie Valley...Helderbergs...western
Mohawk Valley...and southern Adirondacks for 3 to 6 inches of snow
with some sleet...and 4 to 8 inches in the southern Adirondacks.
We have seen some sleet mixing in south and west of the forecast
area...even some -fzra over Binghamton at an elevation close to
1500 ft. We will have to monitor if this -FZRA moves into our
area. The wet bulbing has been mainly snow...and we are seeing a
transition to plain rain south of the Hudson River Valley. The
column will continue to saturate from the Capital Region north and
east between 1030 am and 1230 pm. We are expecting an inch or two
in these areas. Temp trends were readjusted based on obs...and
pops were retooled to increase to categorical values by the early
pm across the entire area based on the latest HRRR and radar
trends. Special weather statements will continue to be issued for
the onset of the accumulating snow.
Previous discussion follows for the late afternoon and evening
period...
Warm advection will eventually become quite dominant that by
afternoon into early evening, snow mixing with rain and some sleet
should transition to mainly rain. Exception would be portions of
the Adirondacks where forecast wet bulb zero heights remain a bit
low for the wintry mixture to continue. Meanwhile, surface low
will begin to reform near NJ and begin to intensify over eastern
New England overnight. This will allow for cold advection to wrap
back into eastern NY for another transition back to snow/snow-
showers with additional light accumulations. Furthermore,
northwesterly winds will be on the increase overnight.
Highs today may not occur until this evening when the max warm
advection is over the region. Mainly 30s for the terrain to lower
40s into the Hudson River Valley, Taconics, NW CT, portions of the
Berkshires and lower elevations of southern Vermont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Friday...The sfc low moves east to northeast into the Gulf of
Maine. Some lingering upper deformation zone sct rain or snow
showers will linger through the morning especially north and east
of the Capital Region...and then a transition to favored west to
northwest upslope activity is briefly expected for the western
Adirondacks...southern Greens and Berkshires. Some light snow
accums may be possible with up too an additional inch. It will be
brisk /west to northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts 30 to 35
mph/ and cool as H850 temps fall to 0 to -4C. Highs will
generally be in the mid 40s to upper 40s in the valley
areas...and mid to upper 30s across the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A fast moving/zonal flow will occur during much of the long term
portion of the forecast, with gradual height rises heights expected
across eastern CONUS by Tue-Wed.
One fast moving impulse should track from the Northern Plains into
northern New England Saturday. A surge of warm advection ahead of
this system could bring some showers to the region late Friday night
or early Saturday morning, especially for western areas. In fact,
some models suggest weak elevated instability, with showalter
indices dipping below zero across the eastern Catskills. Will keep
out mention of thunder at this time, but can not completely rule out
a few rumbles of thunder across some areas of the eastern
Catskills/mid Hudson Valley. Showery conditions may shift northward
for a time Saturday afternoon, before the system`s cold front brings
additional showers for Saturday night and Sunday.
Some lingering showers could occur Sunday evening, otherwise a
period of fair weather is expected for Monday-Wednesday, with
seasonable temperatures Monday trending to above normal for Tuesday-
Wednesday. There will be another system tracking north/west of the
region late Tuesday-Tuesday night, which could brush the Adirondacks
with some showers.
Temperatures Saturday-Sunday will be dependent on how much, if any
sunshine can break through. At this time, expect 50s for most valley
areas, and 40s across higher elevations, although warmer max temps
could occur if sunshine breaks through, especially Saturday
afternoon. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Monday should be seasonably cool, with highs mainly in the mid 40s
to lower 50s, and overnight lows in the 30s, with some 20s across
higher terrain. A warming trend is expected for Tuesday-Wednesday,
with above normal temperatures expected. Highs should reach the 50s
for most valley areas, and 40s across higher terrain. Some southern
valley areas could even reach into the 60s. Overnight lows Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning will mainly be in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure will track from the southern Great Lakes region
into northern New England today into tonight. A warm front
associated with this low will approach from the southwest late
today, with an occluded front approaching overnight.
Some light snow is expected to develop between roughly 13Z-
16Z/Thu from southwest to northeast. MVFR/IFR conditions will
develop with the snow. Snow is forecast to change to rain/sleet
first at KPOU by late morning, then plain rain by early afternoon.
Trends in data and in sources of guidance are not completely
consistent, with some suggestion that snow could change to just a
mix of rain and snow with some sleet at KALB, KGFL and KPSF after
about 19Z-20Z, if the snow starts early enough and intensity of
precipitation is as much as the guidance suggests. Indicating a
slight leaning toward a colder forecast because of these factors.
Ceilings and visibilities could be borderline MVFR/IFR through
Thursday afternoon if the transition to a mix or rain is more
gradual.
Eventually, all rain is expected after around 22Z/Thu, and may be
moderate in intensity at times through at least 06Z/Fri. MVFR/IFR
conditions will prevail. Rain should taper to showers or drizzle
after 06Z/Fri.
Light north to northeast winds at less than 5 KT through mid
morning will become more east to southeast, and increase to 5-10
KT by mid/late morning, and should continue into this
afternoon/evening. Winds may become somewhat gusty just as the
snow begins, with some gusts possibly up to 20-25 KT, esp at KALB.
Winds are expected to shift into the north to northwest between
roughly 07Z-10Z/Fri as the occluded front passes.
Low level wind shear will be possible tonight, as southeast to
south winds increase to 30-40 KT around 2000 FT AGL, while surface
winds remain east to southeast at only 5-10 KT. For now, no
mention in TAFs, but likely will need to include mention with
subsequent issuances. The best chance for low level wind shear
will likely be between roughly 23Z/Thu-05Z/Fri.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...RA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A complex system will move east of the region today into tonight
with a period of snow and rain. As this storm tracks east of the
New England coast Friday, brisk and cool conditions with isolated
to scattered rain and snow showers mainly over the mountains.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread precipitation is expected through tonight with snow
mixing with rain will be over much of the area... with snow
mixing in across the Adirondack region...and perhaps the southern
Greens again.
Precipitation totals will generally be from three quarters of an
inch to around an inch and a quarter through daybreak Friday.
Another system will bring light rainfall amounts Saturday into
Saturday night of generally a quarter of an inch or less.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ032-
033-038>040-042-047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1159 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Wintry mix will finish changing to rain this afternoon as a low
pressure system moves through the region. The weather pattern
will remain generally unsettled with fluctuating temperatures
through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1200 PM Update...
Temperatures are still hovering around freezing in Wayne-Pike
Counties, and slightly below in eastern Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan
Counties. In coordination with surrounding offices I extended the
advisory for lingering effects (and included Otsego County) until
8 PM for the northeastern set of zones, and until 2 PM for Wayne-
Pike which should be above freezing by then.
Previous discussion...
At 915 AM...Snow continues on northeastern edge of precipitation
shield where evaporational cooling and colder temperatures in
general are supporting it. However, as evidenced by 850mb
temperatures in RAP and other models, warm low level jet is
surging warm wedge of air aloft which is changing snow to rain
from southwest to northeast as expected. Shallow cold air
underneath is still keeping temperatures at higher elevations near
or even slightly below freezing. Ground temperatures are plenty
warm to prevent icing for most roadways, yet elevated surfaces and
tree branches may accrete light ice. Emergency management from
earlier even reported that in the high terrain of southwest
Steuben County was getting enough ice and wind for twigs/small
branches to come down. At this hour, observed and expected
temperatures at higher elevations for counties roughly along and
east of I-81 will continue to support light icing on elevated
surfaces. Thus in addition to the ongoing winter weather advisory
for Pike- Sullivan-Delaware-Wayne counties, in the very near term
we just put out of Special Weather Statement to cover patchy ice
at higher elevations for Broome- Chenango-Madison- Otsego-
Susquehanna for the next couple hours or so. Roadways will just be
wet, though surfaces not in contact with the ground including
bridges/overpasses at higher elevations, could have patchy ice.
Heading into tonight, vigorous upper wave associated with the
system moves through with surface low transferring its energy
from lower lakes to New England. Steadier and heavier precip winds
down west to east through the mid to late evening with showers
lingering on the backside of the low overnight enhanced by the
lake. Some wet snow may mix in again overnight as temps drop into
the 30s however limiting factor will be that most of the moisture
will become confined to below the dendritic zone.
Low over New England Fri morning will drift eastward and allow
brief ridging into the area later Fri into Sat. Some leftover
showers possible early Fri in the NW flow with drying Fri
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Fri ngt looks quiet and dry under Hipres. Wrm fnt aprch for ltr
Sat. With the rather flat wly flow and limited moisture, best
chance for pcpn will remain north of the area Sat nearer the upr
jet. Temps will rebound Sat aftn to abv nrml lvls.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM update...no major chgs to the long term as a flat rdg dvlps
over the area. Fcst area will be on the nrn edge of the rdg bring
various chances for rain but with gnrly abv nrml temps. Prvs disc
conts blo.
330 PM Update...
Frequency of systems will back off a bit in the long term period,
though temperatures will still fluctuate.
Surface ridge Friday evening will quickly collapse in favor of
another small low pressure system which will brush through
Saturday. This northern stream low will track from Lake Superior
Friday night, across Ontario to southern Quebec on Saturday.
Models are in better agreement now on sending its trailing cold
front decidedly through our region Saturday. Upper support and
moisture availability will be better closer to the low itself, and
thus best shower coverage will occur in Central New York. That
being said, with the front passing through the whole area,
everyone including Northeast PA will see at least a chance of
showers. Warm air advection ahead of the cold front, will allow
temperatures to actually go up late Friday night, preventing other
precipitation types besides rain as the system moves in Saturday
morning. Then during the day Saturday, temperatures will reach
mid 50s to near 60 before the cold front passes.
Models are also in better agreement now on secondary wave along
the front sunday being mainly south of the area, so I have
followed the model superblend trend of only low chances for rain
showers; and what little I have for that, mainly south of the
Twin Tiers.
Pattern remains on the progressive side this coming week, though
with modest height rises, and with low tracks further north in
Canada. Temperatures will trend from slightly below climatology
Sunday-Monday, to near normal Midweek. Sometime around Wednesday,
a weak front may pass through but with little moisture and thus
very iffy on rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Messy system will continue to affect the area today with restrictions.
For KITH/KBGM/KSYR/KRME, IFR visbys likely into this morning with
snow and even the chance for a little sleet or freezing
rain...mainly for KBGM. Remaining sites should be mainly MVFR with
mostly rain. By afternoon, most sites should be MVFR as precip
will have changed over to rain however expect BGM at the hilltop
to remain IFR in lower cigs/visbys
Precip winds down to a few showers west to east this evening with
IFR cigs likely by overnight for all sites except KAVP/KELM.
Winds E/SE 10-15 gusting to around 20 knots today. Expect LLWS to
be an issue today for KELM/KAVP. Winds shift around to W/SW
tonight on the backside of low.
OUTLOOK...
Friday/Saturday/Sunday...On and off MVFR possible in rain
showers.
Monday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
PAZ040-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ046-
057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PCF/DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...PCF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
838 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Areas of dense fog limited to the western Devils Lake basin at 830
am CDT. Trimmed back the larger fog area to teh west and south.
Dense fog advisory continues through 10 am and will re evaluate
after 9 am. Otherwise forecast trending ok.
UPDATE Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Have stretched the dense fog advisory into portions of the James
River Valley where visibilities around one-quarter mile are now
being reported. Models clear out most of the fog by mid-day though
latest HRRR is being a little more reluctant on the eastern end of
the area. Will have to keep an eye on this as if it continues to
show this solution fog coverage will need to be stretched out in
time a bit more.
UPDATE Issued at 517 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Update for issuance of a dense fog advisory for parts of north
central ND in an near the Devils Lake Basin. Cities and towns in
the advisory include Rugby...Dunseith...Belcourt and Rolla.
Although mid level clouds were moving southeast across western
and central ND, sites like Dunseith and Rugby were reporting 1/4
mile. Will issue the advisory valid through 10 am cdt.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Currently...a weak surface cold front had moved south into north
central ND...allowing temperatures to drop quickly into the 30s. Low
level moisture in place with radiational cooling has increased fog
formation in the Devils Lake Basin and westward into the Minot area.
The visibilities had dropped to 1/4 mile in this area as well. The
question is whether this dense fog will persist...or begin to
dissipate because a large area of mid-level clouds was moving
east/southeast across ND. The mid level clouds covered all of
southwestern ND and into the south central. As the clouds advance
eastward, we are thinking that will raise surface temperatures just
enough to keep visibilities from being as low as 1/4 mile
(dense fog). On the other hand, the HRRR model indicates that the
area of dense fog should expand in all directions from the Devils
Lake Basin.
Expect that any low clouds or fog that develops will erode from
southwest to northeast today. A building upper level ridge and
low/mid level warming with southwest winds aloft spreading from
southwestern ND northeastward. Expect temperatures to climb into the
lower 70s southwest...but reach only into the upper 50s in the
Turtle Mountains through the James Valley.
Tonight the upper level ridge axis moves east into Minnesota and
the ridge flattens as shortwave energy impulses approach ND. The
shortwave will induce a surface low over MT Thursday afternoon.
This low is forecast to move east into central ND by daybreak
Friday. South winds ahead of the low and westerly winds behind it
should keep the overnight low temperatures quite mild in the 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
A cold front extending westward from the surface low over central ND
Friday daybreak is forecast to move southeast across the state as
the surface low moves east into MN. A breezy day with northwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph and highs from the mid 50s northwest to the
upper 60s south central. A secondary push of much colder air is
forecast to move into ND Friday night. Expect northwest winds to
remain at 10 to 20 mph with overnight lows in the 30s. An upper
level shortwave moving northeast across the Rockies Friday will
approach the western Dakotas Friday night and bring chances of
rain...possibly mixed with snow...mainly over southern counties
Friday night and Saturday.
The coolest day will be Saturday when the center of the cold Canadian
high reaches ND by late Saturday afternoon. Look for highs only in
the 40s.
The flow aloft remains progressive, and a vigorous shortwave moving
northeast across the Rockies will bring another chance of rain
Sunday night and Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday look dry with seasonable temperatures with
highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
IFR to LIFR conditions in fog will persist over much of north
central North Dakota into the James River Valley through mid-
morning before improving. Over the remainder of central into
portions of northwest North Dakota, localized IFR to LIFR
conditions in fog will remain through mid-morning. Conditions will
improve throughout the area to VFR around mid-day.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NDZ005-013-
025-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1045 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southern Michigan early this morning will track
across Lake Ontario this afternoon. This system will keep cool and
wet weather across the Keystone state today. Some snow will mix
with the rain across north central PA at times this morning. Milder
weather will occur this weekend, as high pressure builds across
the southeast states. A weak cold front from the upper Great Lakes
may bring a chance of showers to the area for the later part of
the weekend. However, most of the weekend will be on the dry side.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Steady rains continue across the northern mountains late this
morning. Temperatures should be above freezing for all but the
highest elevations as of 1030 am... with even locations above
2000 ft above freezing by noon. Farther south rains have become
spotty... with a band of more concentrated showers located along a
trough moving east across western Pa. These showers will move
across central Pa during the early to mid afternoon. Model
soundings continue to show a little elevated instability across
central and southern Pa into this afternoon... so an isolated
rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out with this band of showers
mainly for areas along and south of I-80. With east-to-
southeasterly low- level flow / cold air damming pattern in place
surface temperatures will be low to rise today... with highs
reaching the 40s to lower 50s later today. Previous discussion is
below.
One band of snow and rain moved across the north central area
earlier. Another large area of precipitation moving across the
north again at this time. Snow grids look good. Expect the area
that might have picked up some accumulation to be from near BFD to
northwest of IPT.
After about 13Z, expect the precipitation to become lighter and
less widespread, and temeratures warm enough that the precipitation
will be in the form of rain.
As the low moves across the eastern part of Lake Ontario later
this afternoon, that winds will shift more to the west, and the
rain will taper to just a few showers.
Main thing going for the rain early today is the strong warm
advection. Did not make any large changes to the fcst, may add
thunder to the fcst, if it holds together.
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The airmass behind the departing low is not as cold as what we
had ahead of it. A few rain showers possible tonight and early
Friday morning. Minor adjustments made to the fcst package.
The main thing will be the wind early Friday. Downstream blocking
should allow northern stream energy to phase with the lead trough
and eventually result in a negatively tilted trough over the
Northeast U.S. by Friday morning. Models show the formation of a
triple point low deepening along the coast into the Canadian
Maritimes by Saturday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Trend has been for slightly milder conditions on Saturday and
less chance of showers, especially across the south. Did edge
temperatures up a little, and decrease POPS some.
For Sunday, still some chance of showers, as the next front
drops southward toward PA.
High pressure builds back into the area from the north and west
early next week. Temperatures should average normal to above
normal. Main changes was to bring temperatures up a little
here and there, and take out low chance POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure will bring periods of rain to Central Pa today along
with low cigs, especially over the Northwest Mtns. SREF and latest
HRRR support the idea of predominantly MVFR conds across much of
Central Pa today. However, an upsloping flow is likely to yield
lower (IFR) cigs at KBFD. At KJST, models indicate arrival of sfc
warm front and drier sw flow is likely to bring predominantly VFR
conditions for much of the day. A core of strong winds aloft will
lead to marginal LLWS conditions across parts of Central/Northern
Pa today.
For much of the area, expect improving conditions behind the cold
front, as a drier northwest flow arrives tonight. However,
low level moisture streaming off of the Great Lakes and ascending
the Allegheny Mtns will likely result in IFR cigs at KBFD/KJST
this evening, then persistent MVFR cigs lasting through Friday
morning.
Outlook...
Fri...AM low cigs possible W Mtns.
Sat...No sig wx expected.
Sun...Showers/low cigs possible, esp N and W.
Mon...No sig wx expected.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
708 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Surface low pressure was located over northern Indiana early this
morning, with an inverted trough extending back across portions
of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. This was providing
enough lift for IFR ceilings and patchy drizzle across northern
portions of the cwa. Stratus blankets the entire region early this
morning within cyclonic flow. Satellite shows the back edge of the
stratus deck approaching central Iowa, with the erosion tied to
leading edge of developing 925 mb warm advection and also NVA aloft.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Cloud trends with impact on temps, and fog potential are the main
concerns.
00z DVN raob shows a fairly deep low level moisture to above 900
mb beneath strong inversion, thus it would appear any erosion of
stratus will be a slow process. However, 925 mb warm advection and
NVA aloft, working in tandem for the erosion to our west, look to
overspread the cwa toward midday through afternoon and should
bring about decreasing clouds generally from southwest to northeast.
Prior to that will likely have some patchy drizzle mainly in the
northern counties until mid morning. Also, a weak disturbance
in northwest flow is generating some light returns /sprinkles/
across portions of southeast North Dakota into west-central
Minnesota early this morning. Last few runs of HRRR/RAP have been
bringing some of this activity down toward the cwa later today
but diminishing likely due to subsidence, and therefore left out
mention. Goes without saying high temperatures today will be
quite challenging and dependent on clearing trends/timing. Would
expect the warmest readings (around 60/lower 60s) in the southwest
cwa where decreasing clouds likely to occur sooner. Coolest
readings likely in the northern cwa where any clearing likely last
to arrive, and as result there is some potential to stay in the
upper 40s along the Highway 20 corridor.
Tonight, any low clouds should be exiting north/east cwa by early
in the evening with mainly clear skies outside of some thin cirrus.
Strengthening warm/moist advection over a cooler/wet boundary
layer brings about concerns for some advection fog and possibly
even stratus north of a developing warm front. Some of the hi-res
models including the NMM and HRRR are also picking up on this
potential. I have therefore added patchy fog mention for the
overnight hours. Can`t rule out some of the fog being dense.
Temperatures may bottom out in the evening or around midnight before
becoming steady, if not rising a couple degrees due to continued
strengthening 925 mb warm advection and increasing southerly winds.
Continue to see MAV and MET guidance running too cool of late and
have sided toward blend of 2M temps favoring closer to ECMWF, with
lows ranging mostly from the lower 40 northeast cwa to the lower 50s
southwest cwa.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Friday and Friday Night: Low pressure tracking along the
U.S./Canadian border will drag a +16 C 850mb thermal ridge through
the Upper Mississippi Valley. Breezy SW sfc winds gusting 25-35 mph
(isolated near 40 mph) and daytime mixing to result in optimal
warming, allowing temps to reach near 70 F far N/NE CWA to upper 70s
SW. Highest gusts are forecast in counties NW of a Fairfield, IA to
Freeport, IL line. Winds lower overnight but remain out of the south
and sfc dewpoints are forecast to hover in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
This will lead to a very mild night. Forecast lows near 60 F (on
avg) are roughly 20 F degrees above normal.
Saturday...
Temperatures: A cold front is forecast to sink southward through the
CWA during afternoon and evening. 850mb temps will eventually fall
below 12 C, but models have delayed the significant cooling until
the late afternoon or evening. Thinking the north to south max temp
gradient is going to be at least 10-15 F degrees. Have mid 60s far
north to upper 70s far south at this time - a few degrees above
model consensus.
Precipitation: Models now in better agreement grazing the CWA with
light QPF during the evening/overnight along the cold front/zone of
sfc convergence. Have 20-40 POPs for most of the area.
Sunday: Mid-level ridging will ensue setting up another stretch of
above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather. Highs are forecast
slightly above seasonal normals.
Monday and Tuesday: The mid-level ridge amplifies on Monday in
response to a digging trough in the Western U.S. Models have 1000-
500mb thicknesses peaking near 570 dam. The synoptic pattern
supports well above avg highs in the 70s and breezy conditions. Weak
cold front ushers in slightly cooler air for Tuesday. This front is
important because it is forecast to stall out across E Iowa/NW
Illinois and may become the focus for rounds of rain and isolated
storms by mid to late week.
Wednesday and Thursday: Better agreement/higher confidence in
active pattern developing in the Central U.S., including the Upper
Mississippi Valley.
In the initial stages of the pattern change, a warm front will
likely be the focus for repeated rounds of showers and
isolated/embedded storms. Upper-level vort. maxes are forecast to
ride along this low-level baroclinic zone from the Southwest U.S.
Will have to watch PWAT forecasts over the next several days because
the GFS is advecting anomalously high values of +1.25" into the area
via an 850mb connection to the Western Gulf. Potential is there for
significant rain but it is too far away to get into the details.
Looking further ahead: The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting
strong signals for above average temperatures through the first two
weeks of November. This would be the average temperature of the
period. Below average individual days are certainly possible. Uttech
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Stratus with IFR to MVFR ceilings is trapped beneath an inversion
and will be slow to break up and clear. Have maintained similar
timing from previous TAFs of improvement to VFR conditions by
mid afternoon through sunset. However, confidence on timing of
improving conditions is low due to the strength of inversion and
depth of moisture. If any changes most likely it would be further
delay of improving conditions to mostly this evening from southwest
to northeast. Next challenge and concern is fog potential overnight
with warm advection over cool/wet boundary layer north of a warm
front. Mixed signals with LAMP and various MOS guidance showing
little to no reduction in visibility tonight. However, other
guidance including HRRR, RAP and NMM visibility plots support fog
and possibly areas of dense. Looking at observations early this
morning there is quite a bit of fog over portions of eastern
Dakotas into the Missouri River Valley ahead of a developing warm
front. Visibilities were quite variable from MVFR to pockets of
VLIFR. For now, I have introduced mainly MVFR visibilities, but
confidence is low and if any fog occurs potential will exist for
areas of lower conditions from IFR to local VLIFR. Northerly winds
5-12 kts will become light and variable this afternoon with high
pressure building in. Winds tonight then turn from the south-
southeast 4-8 kts.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McClure
SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...McClure
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Forecast highlights the next 7-10 days: Continued above normal
temperatures through Monday-Tuesday, cooler by mid-late week.
Precipitation chances entering back into the picture by Tuesday
night-Wednesday.
Light winds, radiational cooling, steep inversion and a
moistening boundary layer should support patchy to areas of dense
fog spreading/expanding north early this morning generally
along/southeast of the KS Turnpike. Relied heavily on RAP and HRRR
model soundings. The dense fog should dissipate by around 10 am.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Continued above normal temperatures are expected through at least
mid next week, as the main polar jet and associated chilly air
remain bottled up in Canada. Thinking the warmest days will be
Friday, Saturday and Monday, with most areas likely getting into
the 80s, which will flirt with daily record highs, especially
Friday and Monday. A weak cool front will pass through dry
Saturday-Saturday night, with a slight cool down into the 70s
Sunday, although these readings will still be about 10 degrees
above normal. After the aforementioned warm up Monday, another
weak cool front should cool us back into the 70s Tues-Wed. Chances
are increasing that we`ll finally return closer to normal mid-late
next week.
Precipitation-wise, although timing between latest GFS and ECMWF
remains uncertain, both indicate chances for meaningful
precipitation returning to the region sometime mid-late next week.
Finally, winds will be rather stout/gusty out of the south,
Friday, Saturday and Monday, as strengthening low pressure
approaches from the west.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Areas of dense fog will blanket parts of southeast and south
central Kansas until mid-morning, though VSBYS will vary from
1/4SM to greater than 1SM. The more prevalent fog and lowest
vsbys and stratus cigs should prevail over southeast Kansas before
lifting between 14-16z. Otherwise, southerly winds will increase
during the day with gusty winds developing over the higher terrain
of central Kansas at KGBD and KRSL by this afternoon. While VFR
conditions are expected to prevail for this afternoon and much of
tonight, some patchy stratocu cigs may develop over southeast
Kansas toward the end of the forecast valid period.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 78 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 79 59 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 76 59 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
ElDorado 76 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 77 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 81 59 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 81 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 80 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 78 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 77 58 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 74 56 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 74 56 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 76 57 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ052-053-
069>072-093>096-098>100.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
627 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...MVFR visibilities early this morning redeveloping
again by 28.06z continuing through 28.12z. A few very isolated
showers will also be possible late this morning and this afternoon.
Winds will be east to southeast at 4 to 8 knots late this morning
through early this evening then light and variable later this
evening through 28.12z. 32/ee
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/
NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Mid level short trof just
west of the lower MS river valley early this morning will dampen
further east across the north central gulf states today then shift
east of the forecast area by 12z fri. Ahead of this system a few
isolated showers were noted over central parts of MS tracking
eastward quickly most likely passing north of the forecast area
later this morning and this afternoon.
Other showers were located offshore mostly south of the MS coast
tracking westward. Latest model soundings continue to show very
limited moisture across the forecast area today and tonight leading
to isolated coverage across western and coastal areas of the
forecast area through this afternoon. Latest hi res data both the
HRRR and RUC13 continue to support this reasoning depicting very
limited coverage also occurring mostly offshore and to the west.
As a result will stay close to the current forecast for inland areas
today decreasing the coverage to slight chance or isolated offshore
also. Latest model soundings also depict limited instability
suggesting any measurable rain that does occur will continue to be
in the form of light showers. With a light onshore flow during the
afternoon and evening hours yesterday some low level moisture has
advected inland ahead of this system leading to some patchy fog near
the sfc. With sfc dewpts in the lower to middle 60s generally along
and south of the I-10 corridor believe the best coverage of fog will
be over inland areas generally over the lower half of the forecast
area early this morning. For late tonight and early fri morning with
less mixing in the boundary layer thus leading to better decoupling
near the sfc believe we will see better coverage of fog...mainly
radiational...occurring over most inland areas beginning around
midnight tonight continuing through about 14z or 8am fri morning.
With light winds near the sfc fog could become dense at times
occurring mostly an hour or two before sunrise. Will continue to
monitor this fog situation closely and issue any advisories if
needed. Day and night temps will continue to be above seasonal
averages climbing to the middle 80s inland...lower 80s near the
coast followed by lows in the middle 50s well inland and the
upper 50s to lower 60s closer to the coast. 32/ee
SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...Upper energy moving
east over the US/Canadian border will flatten an upper ridge
stretching north over the US plains into the weekend. By Saturday
evening, it stretches east over the northern Gulf coast from
Southern Plains, but then begins to rebuild into Sunday over the
Plains as upper energy digs south over the West Coast and the
Northeast. Surface high pressure centered over the Tennessee/Ohio
River Valleys gets pushed south, becoming centered over the
Southeast. With subsidence from the upper ridge maintaining control
over the FA and surrounding areas, temperatures remain above seasonal
levels. Highs in the mid to upper 80s, closer to 80 along the coast,
expected. Lows in the mid to upper 50s, low 60s along the coast. dry
northeast to east flow will help to create a dry forecast, with no
rain expected.
/16
LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...An upper ridge rebuilds over
the Plains, then swings east as the western Conus system swings east
and another digs south over the East coast. Ultimately, the upper
ridge moves east of the Mississippi River by Wednesday, then stalls.
With continued subsidence from the ridge over the FA through the
extended, temperatures well above seasonal continue. Also, the
surface ridge over the Southeast shifts north, to over the
Appalachians through the extended, restoring onshore flow by mid
week. Up to this point, moisture levels are not expected to rise high
enough for showers to return to the forecast, so a dry forecast is
expected to continue.
/16
MARINE...A weak mid to upper level disturbance tracking eastward
across the region today and tonight will help lead to more isolated
showers across the marine area mainly today. Weak high pressure near
the surface will persist through early fri then strengthen from the
north and northeast as a surface ridge over the mid Atlantic region
and se states builds south. This pattern will continue to lead to a
light to moderate easterly flow through early next week with better
winds and seas occurring during the overnight and morning hours due
to a better thermal gradient setting up each night. Seas will
continue to range from 3 to 5 feet well offshore through Sun then
begin to subside slowly by early next week. 32/ee
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
723 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 439 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016
Trends in regional radar loop over last few hours have shown a
diminishing trend to rain/snow across east half of Upper Michigan
well to the north of sfc low moving across far southern lower
Michigan. Based on obs and latest radar imagery, about the only snow
left is over far east cwa vcnty of Newberry. MDOT web cam images
early this morning showed snow coming down at good clip for eastern
cwa and vsby at ERY dropped blo 2sm for a time. Looks like roads
remained wet though with any snow accums staying mainly on the grass.
WV loop and RAP analysis show shortwave trough that caused the
rain/snow early this morning is centered over far eastern Upper
Michigan with shortwave ridging over western Upr Michigan. Even
though secondary shortwave trough is well to northwest near Lk
Winnipeg in Manitoba band of moisture and mid-level q-vector
convergence and a hint of steeper mid level lapse rates has supported
a batch of showers over northern MN this morning. Timing this out on
to the east, could see light rain/snow showers over far west cwa
before daybreak and over rest of northern half of cwa into the
morning before the primary forcing with the wave lifts north and
this precip fades away. Another area of possible precip today will be
over scntrl cwa as east-northeast winds on north side of h85 low over
northern Lower Michigan support scattered lake effect there this
morning as h85 temps of -3c flow over northern Lk Michigan water
temps of 15c. Ptype with the lake effect should be mainly rain due
mostly to near sfc temps well into the 30s or lower 40s over northern
Lk Michigan. Winds in blyr backing more northerly late morning into
early aftn should end the possible lake effect. After secondary
shortwave passes by early this aftn, weak sfc ridge quickly moves
across which allows winds to become more sw-s as area will be on west
side of the ridge and on the south edge of sfc low crossing northern
Ontario. Even with southwest winds, plenty of low clouds should keep
temps in the 40s for most areas today.
Quiet tonight with steady sw winds as low pressure moves over the
Northern Plains. Coolest temps tonight will be over far east where
it could dip blo freezing. Temps above freezing elsewhere with winds
keeping the temps up. With the developing warm air advection pattern
could be light precip try to form late across Lk Superior and maybe
over Keweenaw. Ptype all rain though as sfc temps for those areas
will be upper 30s to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 605 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016
Beginning Fri...Models trending somewhat weaker with Pacific system
lifting across the northern CONUS/Canadian border and arriving into
the Upper Great Lakes region late Fri. Models also trending drier
with system for much of Upper Mi. 00Z NAM and GFS indicating best
isentropic ascent from system will generally be focused ne of CWA
and only brushing eastern counties with lowest condensation pres
deficits on 300-305K sfcs suggesting a period of light rain possible
over the eastern CWA, with otherwise mostly dry conditions
elsewhere. Abundant dry air in mid-levels as noted on Newberry NAM
forecast sounding may even make it difficult to precipitate over the
eastern counties on Fri. South winds ahead of the approaching low
and associated cold front could get gusty on Friday, especially over
the eastern counites where gradient will be tightest ahead of the
approaching low over the Northern Plains and the high centered over
the Ohio Valley. Mixed layer off forecast soundings would suggest
afternoon wind gusts to 25 mph over many of central counties and
perhaps gusts as high as 35 mph at some eastern locations. NAM
soundings also suggest the potential for west wind gusts to 35 mph
late Fri evening/early overnight over the Keweenaw Peninsula with
the system`s cold frontal passage. Elsewhere, west wind gusts with
frontal passage should be no more than 25 mph. Models have backed
off on strength of nw winds associated with secondary trough/frontal
passage late Fri night into Sat so again expect not much more than
nw gusts of 25 mph. Look for temps rebounding mainly into the 50s
under warm advection regime.
Sat-Sun...with forecast of weaker secondary cold frontal passage not
expecting much in way of lingering showers early Sat with exiting
Pacific system. Models however indicate a shortwave riding along
departed frontal boundary just to the south which could bring a line
of rain showers into the far south central CWA late Sat into Sat
evening aided by divergence in right entrance region of 110-120 kt
h25-30 jet max and assoc 7h fgen. Otherwise, expect mostly dry
conditions across the area heading into Sunday as ridging moves back
in from the west. Expect high temps ranging from the mid 40s north
to lower 50s south for the weekend.
Mon-Tue...Monday into Monday night looks potentially wetter again at
least over northern and eastern portions of the forecast area as a
vigorous Pacific shortwave emerges off the CA coast Sunday and
approaches the Upper Great Lakes from the Northern Plains on Monday.
Although there are minor timing differences, the medium range models
are actually in pretty good agreement with track of the deepening
sfc low (around 990 mb per model consensus) across northern Lake
Superior/MN Arrowhead into Ontario Mon night. The deepening low will
likely result in gusty southerly winds ahead of the system Mon into
Mon evening and gusty westerly winds behind the associated cold
frontal passage late Mon night into Tue, especially over the Keweenaw
Peninsula where wind advisory criteria (gusts at or above 45 mph)
could be met. The track of the shortwave and associated sfc low will
favor the northern and eastern portions of the CWA for pcpn Mon into
Mon night...closer to best isentropic ascent. Showers will be
decreasing by Tue with q-vector divergence and drying in the wake of
the frontal passage. Temps will again rise well into 50s on Mon with
strong warm advection and likely continue mild through much of Mon
night for the Halloween trick-or-treaters. Temps will cool off
slightly behind the front on Tue but should still stay above normal,
generally in the lower to mid 50s.
Uncertainty with operational models increases out to mid to late
next week although the GFS and ECMWF ensembles suggest ridging and
generally drier weather may hold into Wed and Thu.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 722 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016
A few rain and snow showers this morning but no vsby restrictions
are expected. Lingering low-level moisture and light winds will
result in cigs blo 010 feet this morning at SAW. Otherwise, cigs
will remain MVFR to low VFR through tonight at all the TAF sites.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 439 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016
SE winds mainly 20 kts or less today as pressure gradient briefly
relaxes. SW winds increase late tonight ahead of developing low
pressure system over the northern Plains. South winds will increase
to 20-30 kts on Fri, strongest on eastern Lk Superior where gale
gusts could be possible late Fri afternoon. The low is expected to
cross over or near Lake Superior Fri night, shifting the winds to NW
to 20-30 knots late Fri night into Saturday. Winds will gradually
diminish to under 20 knots through the day Sunday. Another round of
strong S-SE winds to 30 kts are expected on Mon out ahead of low
pressure tracking across the northern Plains. Gales may occur over
eastern sections Mon aftn into Mon evening. The low will cross Lk
Superior by Tue morning shifting the winds to W and there may be
gales during this time as well.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
828 AM PDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
More rainy and gloomy weather is expected through today as a slow
moving frontal system moves through the Pacific Northwest. There
should be a break in the wet weather on Friday, but more showery
conditions will move into the region over the weekend and persist
into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: The forecast has been updated to fine tune timing of rain
today based on latest radar trends and model data...as well as to
expand patchy fog into the Pullman and Lewiston areas this
morning. A band of rain associated with a slow moving frontal
boundary over the Columbia Basin stretching into the Spokane
area, northeast mountains, and Idaho Panhandle will slowly move
east today...reaching the palouse, Lewiston area, and Central
Panhandle Mountains late this morning into the afternoon hours.
The back edge of the rain band will be slow to reach the Moses
Lake area...with rain likely continuing into early
afternoon...with rain continuing over Eastern Washington through
the afternoon hours. Also lowered high temperatures a couple
degrees in the North Idaho Panhandle where an all day rain will
likely limit temperature rises by only a couple degrees today.
Behind this band of rain models show cooling aloft this afternoon
over North Central Washington with 500mb temps falling to -23C.
The 14z HRRR shows showers developing with this across the East
Slopes of the Cascades, Wenatchee area, Waterville Plateau, and
Okanogan Valley while the Canadian, GFS, and NAM favor dry
conditions. Areas of stratus could limit warming and
destabilization. Will await to see how many sun breaks can
develop this morning to further evaluate afternoon shower chances
over North Central Washington. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Widespread -RA will develop across the region this
morning as a slow moving cold occluded front tracks through the
region fed by a well directed feed of deep Pacific moisture.
Between 12Z and 15Z the KGEG area TAF sites and KMWH will
experience a period of IFR or LIFR conditions in FG and
stratus...with some improvement to low MVFR ceilings as rain
begins. The front will pass through KEAT and KMWH between 16Z and
18Z with slow improvement to VFR conditions between 20Z and 22Z.
The eastern TAF sites will see rain develop in the morning and
continue through the afternoon with some drying to intermittent
showers 00Z and 06Z...before the saturated air mass decouples and
leads to LIFR stratus ceilings and possibly fog overnight tonight
and through 12Z Friday. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 43 54 42 52 42 / 100 30 10 10 40 50
Coeur d`Alene 52 43 52 42 52 43 / 100 50 0 10 40 60
Pullman 53 44 55 44 55 44 / 100 40 0 0 50 70
Lewiston 58 46 58 47 58 47 / 100 30 0 10 40 70
Colville 52 42 52 40 51 40 / 100 40 10 0 20 40
Sandpoint 48 41 50 38 49 39 / 100 60 10 10 30 60
Kellogg 50 40 50 40 50 42 / 100 80 10 10 50 70
Moses Lake 55 42 56 42 54 40 / 90 10 10 10 50 30
Wenatchee 55 44 55 43 53 41 / 30 10 10 10 50 20
Omak 55 42 54 41 52 40 / 20 20 20 0 40 40
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
648 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
The cold front is just entering our far northwest counties as of
08Z. Isolated light showers/sprinkles continue across the southeast
half of the area, and according to the latest HRRR runs, they
should progress eastward and out of the area shortly after 12Z.
The main issue for today is how long the low stratus will linger
over the area behind the front. The 00Z NAM and GFS are in
reasonable agreement in clearing the northeast around 18Z, and the
southern portions of the area after 21Z. Tried to show these
trends in the Sky Cover grids. As a result went on the lower end
of guidance for highs today.
There will be decent dry advection behind the cold front today,
but the winds will die off this evening, as the surface high
settles overhead. With the late clearing expected over much of the
area, fog development or the re-development of low clouds will be
a strong possibility tonight. Not sure if the dry advection will
have much of an impact on the fog potential, so for now will just
mention patches or areas of fog for much of the region. A Dense
Fog Advisory may ultimately be needed tonight, but need to get
the clouds out of here before getting serious about that
possibility.
High pressure aloft will build over the region Friday into
Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will build east of the
area on Friday allowing south winds to return to the region. They
are likely to stay up Friday night and increase and become gusty
on Saturday. All of this will lead to a strong warming trend and
dry weather through Saturday.
Went on the low end of guidance for highs today, then stayed close
to consensus for lows tonight. Thereafter, generally went above
guidance for highs and lows. Much of the region should climb into
the 80s on Saturday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Ridging remains dominant across the WFO PAH forecast area through
Monday. Warm air advection increase slightly from the west on Monday
in advance of a shortwave trough in the Dakotas on Monday, moving
into the Western Great Lakes early Tuesday. The frontal zone with
this shortwave never moves into the WFO PAH forecast area, serving
only to increase the ageostrophic response with more warm air
advection.
The West Coast closed low finally moves onshore and toward New
Mexico late Wednesday night. Both the 00z Thursday ECMWF and GFS
guidance hint at an increase in deep layer moisture around the low
level ridge east of the WFO PAH forecast area after next Tuesday.
Although not ideal, both models suggest that there may be support
for pre-frontal, weak warm advection (conveyor belt) shower
activity. Really can`t argue either way from the initialized
regionally blended model guidance output, so left a small chance for
showers in place for parts of the forecast area Wednesday and
Thursday.
Collaboratively adjusted max temperatures up 1 degree Tuesday and
Wednesday in advance of the approaching closed low in New Mexico.
Otherwise, no other significant changes to regionally blended
guidance in the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
A cold front is moving through the region and should clear all
sites by 14Z. Behind it ceilings near 1kft are likely for several
hours, especially at KEVV and KOWB. They may not be as solid
farther southwest. There have been some IFR ceilings upstream
early this morning, so cannot rule this out for an hour or two
either. Winds will veer from west to northwest with the passage
of the front, but they will be sustained under 10kts through the
day. All sites should be clear by the end of the day, and surface
high pressure will settle overhead for tonight. Calm winds and
clear skies may lead to significant fog or low cloud formation
overnight. Kept visibilities at MVFR levels for now, but LIFR
conditions will be possible.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
715 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
A weak quasi stationary boundary is roughly along and/or just
south of I-44. Areas of dense fog are developing or have developed
near and south of the front over sw MO, while layered stratus was
occurring to the north. A dense fog advisory remains in affect for
the western/southwestern cwfa, but some near term adjustments may
be needed as trends warrant.
A weak sfc ridge will move east through our area today with low
clouds/fog burning off slowly. It wouldn`t be shocking to see
some clouds hold on into the afternoon over southern MO with a
lack of mixing, fairly deep moisture, and low late October sun
angles.
SREF and RAP (RAP through 04z) guidance indicates stratus/fog
redevelopment over at least some of southern MO tonight,
especially south central MO.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Unseasonably warm weather is expected to continue. Breezy/windy
and warm weather is expected Fri-Sat as the sfc high shifts off to
the east and another front approaches from the west. This next
front looks to stall/weaken over the area late Sat night into
Sunday followed by another repeat of the gusty south winds (Mon)
followed by a weak/stalled sfc front (Tue). Shortwaves associated
with these sfc boundaries pass largely off to our north so am not
expecting any significant precipitation.
There is some potential for change by mid/late week next week as
both of the ECMWF and GFS show a lower latitude disturbance
moving from the Rockies into the Plains. Better rain chances hold
off until after day 7, but we do have some precip chances by Wed.
There are still some timing differences in guidance with the ops
GFS faster versus the ECMWF.
After some brushes with generally light frost earlier in the
month, we definitely aren`t looking at anything close to a
killing freeze over the next few days. It looks like we will head
into November much warmer than normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 713 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Fog and low stratus will linger MVFR to IFR flight conditions
across the region into the middle morning hours. Flight
conditions will begin to improve to VFR after 18z with light
southeasterly surface winds through the day. Additional
limitations to visibility with fog may occur again late tonight
and through the early morning on Friday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ066-067-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-
101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
604 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level ridge over
eastern Rockies and southern Canadian Prairies and upper level
trough over the eastern Great Lakes region. Upper level trough is
wrapping low stratus deck of clouds and sprinkles/drizzle across
much of the forecast area per latest visible satellite imagery
and mosaic radar.
Upper level ridge will build into the Upper Midwest tonight into
Friday. Strong southerly winds aloft are expected to slowly diminish
the clouds south to north across the forecast area.
However...winds near the surface remain light tonight...with moist
near surface boundary layer. Patchy to areas of fog is expected to
form across much of the forecast area tonight.
Pressure gradient tightens across the forecast area by 12z
Friday...as surface low pressure moves along the international
border. The 27.12z GFS/NAM indicate southerly winds increasing to
15 to 20 knots sustained with around 30 knot wind
gust...especially in higher and open areas west of the Mississippi
River. There is potential winds could gust a little higher up to
35 knots...if winds aloft mix down to the surface.
Another concern for Friday is potential of low stratus deck of
clouds redeveloping over the northern parts of the forecast area
Friday afternoon on nose of strong warm air advection. The 27.12z
NAM is more progressive than the GFS with this and the NAM produces
drizzle per bufkit soundings over north central Wisconsin. At this
time...the 27.12z NAM may be overdone with moisture at lower
levels...but have increased cloud cover over the far northern
parts of the forecast area Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
The 27.12z GFS/NAM/ECMWF are in better agreement in tracking
shortwave trough over central Minnesota/northern Wisconsin
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The deterministic 27.12z
models continue to show 500-300mb pv advection and qg forcing in
association with the shortwave. This would result in light
precipitation across the northern half of the forecast area
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Have increased
precipitation chances after 18z Saturday across the northern
portions of the forecast area.
Shortwave/surface ridge builds into the Upper Great Lakes Region
Sunday and provides dry weather/seasonable temperatures.
The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement bringing a progressive
shortwave from northern California into northern Minnesota late
Sunday into Monday. Strong WAA associated with an 850 mb jet around
50-60 kts will keep temperatures much above average for Halloween.
The best forcing/moisture for precipitation remains to our north,
however, with the surface low tracking from the central Dakotas into
the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Could still see a few sprinkles, but
currently thinking Monday should remain dry for most areas, with the
best chance for any precipitation across our northern counties.
Cloud cover could limit temperatures on Monday, but should still see
widespread 60s. 70s are not out of the question if much of the day
turns out to be clear. Winds could also become an issue on Monday,
with GFS soundings showing mixing up to 825 mb. Quieter weather
should build in behind the departing low for Tuesday, with
temperatures returning closer to normal. The GFS and ECMWF begin to
diverge Wednesday and Thursday, but both hint at a return to
unsettled weather with longwave troughing developing over the
western CONUS. Temperatures should remain warm enough that winter
precipitation would not be a concern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
The main concern is whether the low clouds will clear out
overnight and allow fog to form. So far, the clouds have been very
stubborn and have remained in place and looking at the 27.18Z NAM
and 27.21Z RAP forecast soundings, it looks like these will hold
on much longer than earlier expected. Some suggestion in the RAP
that KRST could see the low clouds scatter out late tonight while
KLSE will likely stay cloudy through the night. The increasing
south winds on the back side of the surface high will bring in
some higher dew points that should quickly allow fog to form
where the clouds clear out. Will continue to show the visibility
going down to IFR for KRST late tonight, but this is a low
confidence forecast based on the cloud forecast and what impact
the increasing winds will have on the mixing. With the clouds
expected to remain through the night at KLSE feel there is a very
low potential for and fog to form. A tight gradient will develop
Friday which will allow the sustained winds to increase to around
15 knots for both sites. Lots of warm air aloft coming in which
will build the inversion and limit the mixing depth and while
there will be gusts, they may be limited to 25 knots or less
because of the limited mixing.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Due to the recent rainfall of 1 to 3 inches Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning...a few rivers...the Cedar and Trempealeau...
remain at or rise above flood stage over the next couple of days.
See the latest Flood Statements for the latest specific forecast.
Other rivers...streams and creeks will have rises and remain below
flood stage.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ/MH
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...DTJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
305 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Concerns for the short term include fog across portions of the
east tonight. At 2 pm CDT a warm front extended from low pressure
centered in southern Saskatchewan through central North Dakota
with a cold front entering central Montana.
The HRRR and RAP models show the cool moist boundary layer air
remaining in place this evening across east central North Dakota.
Areas of fog and stratus are just breaking up in the afternoon
mixing with the models forecasting a return of the clouds and fog
this evening. Some uncertainty as the NAM/GFS not as certain on
fog but will add patchy fog and clouds in the evening and early
overnight east. Lows tonight will be relatively mild in the 40s
due to the general cloudiness.
On Friday the cold front will move through bringing northwest
winds and cooler air. This will also add some clouds with
cooling northwest , Highs will be in the 50s northwest to the
lower 70s southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
The extended will remain mildly progressive through the period
beginning with a series of shortwave troughs Saturday with another
Sunday into Monday. A long wave eastern Pacific trough will move
onshore pushing the ridge east and eventually trending toward a
split flow aloft by Wednesday and Thursday. The chance for showers
on Saturday will be across the far south with cooler air moving
through the region. A better chance for showers will be Sunday
night and Monday with the next shortwave. Temperatures should be
mild enough for rain showers although a rain/snow mix may be
possible far northwest Monday morning. Dry and seasonable weather
the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Main concerns for the TAFs focus on MVFR/IFR at KJMS as low level
clouds and fog are forecast to hang in KJMS into tonight. Some
uncertainty as to the timing of the stratus/fog exiting this
afternoon and returning tonight. Otherwise vfr at all other TAF
sites.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
642 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system over the region this afternoon will track towards the
Saint Lawrence Valley with rain showers, and higher terrain wet snow
that will taper off through the overnight period, before coming
to a complete end east of Lake Ontario tomorrow midday. A ridge of
high pressure will bring brief amounts of sunshine tomorrow
afternoon, before clouds increase Friday afternoon and Friday
night ahead of the next storm system, one that will bring chances
for rain Friday night east of Lake Ontario, and Saturday across the
entire region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will track across Lake Ontario this evening. This
will result in rather abrupt wind shifts due to the close
proximity of the surface low.
Radar shows the steadiest rainfall across the Eastern Lake Ontario
region, where there is still warm air advection in the mid-levels.
This area will continue to gradually move northeast through this
evening. A line of showers also extends across the Western
Southern Tier and into the Niagara Frontier which is just ahead of
the driving shortwave and just behind the cold frontal boundary.
These showers should taper off this evening, with perhaps some
light lake enhanced showers tonight as temperatures aloft cool.
The main forecast concern is the potential for mixed precipitation
across the Eastern Lake Ontario region this evening. Model
consensus is far too warm in this area, where persistent
northeasterly flow has continued to tap into colder air to the
north. This flow of cold air will get cut off this evening as the
surface low reaches this area, which should allow surface
temperatures to rise above freezing this evening even though it
will be close. Temperature forecast blend observations to HRRR
guidance which appears to be one of the few models to capture this
cold air damming. It is also important to note, that temperatures
will drop behind the surface low late tonight, with the potential
for any wet roads, or overpasses becoming slippery. The abundance
of clouds should limit radiational cooling.
Plenty of moisture flowing behind the surface low will maintain
abundant clouds and scattered light rain showers through the evening.
Additional lift from the shortwaves, along with limited lake response
and upslope orographic lift will maintain chances for precipitation
through the overnight period. These shortwaves will also bring a
burst of cold air aloft, such that some of the rain showers will
end as a little light snow tonight across higher terrain, though
accumulations will be minor to none.
Tomorrow the initial surface low over the SLV will weaken, while a
secondary surface low develops near southern New England. While
precipitation will largely be ended over WNY, there may be a few
lingering areas of precipitation east of Lake Ontario through the
morning hours.
A narrow ridge of high pressure will advance towards the region
tomorrow afternoon. Once this ridge arrives we should see a rapid
decrease in cloud cover, with sunshine spreading eastward across
the CWA. Despite this sunshine, we will still remain chilly with
highs only in the mid to upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The axis of the north-south surface ridge across the lower Great
Lakes will slide eastward Friday night. Southwesterly low level jet
increases to 45 to 55 knots by Saturday morning as shortwave energy
races across southern Canada, laying a sharp baroclinic zone across
the upper Midwest/Northern Great Lakes and Southern Ontario. The
increasing warm advection and moisture out ahead of this system will
bring increasing chances for showers to the North Country towards
Saturday morning, while the remainder of the region will remain dry.
The warm air advection and increasing southwest flow will result in
a non-diurnal temperature trend for most areas, with this most
pronounced across the lake plains of western New York where
overnight temperatures should warm into at least the lower to mid
50s by daybreak Saturday.
Saturday, latest models look to be just a tad bit slower with the
southward movement of the cold front. Nonetheless, it looks like the
boundary will ease through the area late in the day and Saturday
night. Increasing moisture and frontal lift will generate scattered
to numerous showers across the region, with the greatest rain
potential across the North Country. A breezy to windy day is
expected day as the pressure gradient tightens across our region in
advance of the cold front and as the 45 to 55 knot low level jet
translates eastward across the area. Momentum transfer scheme off
model soundings suggesting that we will not be able to tap into all
of this wind aloft with low levels rather stable, but still could be
looking at wind gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range, especially downwind
of the lakes. Likely not looking at much in the way of sunshine, but
still should be a rather mild late October day with most high
temperatures in the lower to mid 60s across western New York, with
rain holding the North Country back in the 50s.
The southward progression of the front will likely be slowed further
Saturday night into early Sunday as a wave of low pressure ripples
eastward along it. This will likely keep widespread showers across
the region Saturday night into at least Sunday morning. The greatest
rain potential across the western New York and the Finger Lakes.
The rainfall potential will diminish by Sunday afternoon as the
front drop south of the region. High pressure building into the
region behind the front will bring clearing skies Sunday night with
a good amount of sunshine expected for Monday. A gradually cooling
air mass will bring temperatures back closer to normal for Sunday
and Monday with most highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The beginning of this forecast period will be dominated by broad
upper-level ridging that will build from the Mississippi Valley to
the eastern seaboard...and its corresponding areas of surface-based
high pressure. These features will provide our region with a return
to warmer temperatures and largely dry weather. The ridged pattern
will get knocked down by a cold front Wednesday night through
Thursday. Expect a rainy period during the slow passage of this cold
front, as the surface and mid level flow will be along the front,
slowing its passage and allowing a longer and more persistent supply
of moisture.
Light south winds will provide warmer air and downsloping conditions
on Monday night, thus overnight low temps will be limited to the
lower to mid 40s, persistent south to southwest winds will hold
Tuesday night`s lows to the upper 40s to lower 50s, and Wednesday
night will stay 10 degrees above normal with lows in the lower to
mid 40s. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s, with
lower 60s east of Lake Ontario. Wednesday and Thursday will also be
mild for early November as high temps reach the upper 50s to lower
60s on Wednesday and the lower to mid 50s on Thursday, during the
rain.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure centered near BUF/IAG will track across Lake Ontario
toward ART this evening. This will result in rather erratic wind
directions near the center of the low, which should eventually
trend toward the west or northwest behind the low. This will
impact flight conditions as well, with predominantly IFR
conditions during this evening. The exception will be where there
is still southeast downsloping ahead of the low at ROC/ART, as
well as some patches with higher CIGS.
Otherwise, rain showers will taper off from west to east this
evening, with just scattered showers behind the departing low.
After this, conditions will gradually improve on Friday as drier
air works into the region.
Outlook...
Friday afternoon...VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with scattered to numerous showers developing.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Will not make any changes to the small craft advisories that are in
place across the Eastern Great Lakes, except to add the Lower
Niagara River into a SCA for tonight through tomorrow morning. As
the surface low tracks from near eastern Lake Erie this afternoon,
to along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario tonight a northerly
flow that may increase to 20 knots or so will necessitate a SCA
here.
A narrow ridge of high pressure will cross the lakes tomorrow and
this will allow for SCA to end through the afternoon and overnight
time period on the lakes. However this will only be a lull, as
another storm system passing just to the north of Lake Ontario will
again freshen the winds on the Eastern Great Lakes that will likely
bring another round of SCA late Friday night and into the weekend on
the lakes.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for
LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for LOZ043-044.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
307 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...
Livingston has gusted over 50 mph fairly often today, with a peak
of 59 mph noted around noon at the western DOT station. This a
result of gap flow modified by mixing into increasing
southwesterly mid level flow. RAP shows mountain top winds
increasing to 50 kts early this evening, so would expect 50+ mph
gusts to continue for a while longer, with pressure rises from the
west arriving around 03z likely to signal the start of a
decreasing trend. Have issued a wx story to highlight gusty cross
winds on I-90 at Livingston into this evening.
Water vapor imagery shows moist southwest flow over the western
CONUS with a split upper trof off the coast. It should be noted
that moisture is being aided by the remnants of Hurricane Seymour,
and pwats are expected to rise to around 0.75 inches in our region
by tomorrow, an impressive number for late October. Energy off the
coast of the Pacific NW will flatten the ridge tonight and allow
for cooler Canadian air to advect into our cwa. Expect highs back
to the 50s to mid 60s tomorrow, warmest in our southeast. Southern
split shortwave currently off the CA coast will lift through the
great basin tomorrow and bring a period of ascent in our cwa into
early Saturday. This will coincide with deepened upslope winds as
Canadian high pressure settles over the northern high plains.
Model spread remains high regarding the exact track of this trof
and mid level frontogenesis, with latest GFS/NAM showing a more
southern track, while the ECMWF is further north and affects more
of our cwa. Will keep forecast as a consensus between these two
possible solutions, raising pops across our south and lowering
them a bit in our north, as even the EC shows strongest
frontogenesis along the MT/WY border. Though this system will not
be overly dynamic, moisture content will be enough to yield over a
half inch of precipitation over our southern high terrain/upslope
areas. Snow will accumulate to several inches above 8000 ft, but
model wet bulb zero heights down to 6500 ft suggest a mix with wet
snow could occur over the slopes just above Red Lodge and Story.
Otherwise this is a mild system and will bring only rain to the
lower elevations. Precipitation will taper off from west to east
Saturday morning. Mostly dry conditions will prevail Saturday
afternoon. Our western mountains may see more rain/snow showers by
Saturday night as next Pacific shortwave approaches. Temps on
Saturday will be the coolest we have seen in quite awhile, maybe
two weeks, with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the lower
elevations as lee side surface high is slow to exit.
Will continue to highlight Friday night precipitation in our
weather story. Hunters should take note of this upcoming period of
wet and cooler weather.
JKL
.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...
GFS/GEFS showed increasing model disparities with the pattern
beginning on Monday. The ECMWF ensembles did not show much
disagreement, however, the deterministic GFS and ECMWF were in
poor agreement with the pattern beginning on Tuesday. Kept changes
minimal to the forecast beginning on Tuesday due to the above. The
uncertainty in the models could be a result of Hurricane Seymour
getting into the model initializations.
Upper ridging will be over the forecast area on Sunday, but energy
from the next Pacific system will ride through the ridge, as well
as moisture into the western zones. Continue the slight chance to
chance PoPs from KBIL W per the previous forecast with the highest
PoPs in the far W. Noted LI`s fell to -2 deg/c on the GFS, but
soundings did not look like they would support thunder. It will be
warm with temperatures in the 60s across the area. The Pacific
energy moves into N WY/S MT Sun. night along with good moisture.
Models develop a strong surface low over NE WY/W SD by 12Z Monday
with decent QPF wrapping around the low into the area. Thus have
raised PoPs all areas to high chance/likely, except over SE MT
where models forecasted a dry slot. A few inches of snow are
possible over the western mountains. Energy lingers over the area
on Monday, as moisture gradually lessens from W to E. Raised PoPs
for this period as well. Expect a cooler day with highs around
normal. Monday night looks drier with chances of precipitation
confined to the mountains.
The model disagreement begins when the GFS brings a shortwave
through the area on Tuesday, while the ECMWF has upper ridging.
Both models were generally dry. An upper ridge develops on the GFS
for Wednesday while the ECMWF has an elongated trough from MT to
the four-corners region. Differences continued through Thursday.
Despite the differences, models were dry Wed. and Thursday. Model
blends kept temperatures near normal through the period. Arthur
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail over the area through tonight. Chances for rain will
increase over the area from W to E, through the day on Friday.
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with the rain in KLVM with
possible MVFR in KBIL/KSHR. Expect areas of mountain obscuration
beginning late tonight and increasing on Friday. Gusty SW surface
winds with gusts to 40 kt will occur over KLVM through around 09Z
Friday, when a cold front will move through the area causing winds
to decrease somewhat. Arthur
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/059 040/053 041/064 044/056 037/054 034/055 037/058
04/R 62/R 12/W 54/W 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 049/057 038/055 042/061 041/054 035/052 034/055 037/057
25/R 72/R 24/W 55/W 11/B 11/B 11/B
HDN 046/062 040/055 037/067 042/056 035/056 033/056 034/059
03/R 63/R 11/B 54/W 11/B 11/B 11/U
MLS 047/062 039/052 038/063 043/052 035/055 032/053 033/056
02/R 32/R 11/B 45/W 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 048/065 039/052 038/069 043/055 034/057 031/056 033/059
02/R 75/R 00/B 44/W 11/B 11/U 11/U
BHK 046/063 036/048 034/062 040/049 032/053 029/052 030/055
01/B 22/R 01/B 35/W 11/B 11/B 11/U
SHR 046/064 037/054 036/067 039/055 031/055 029/057 031/059
03/R 75/R 01/B 43/W 11/B 11/U 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
229 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1217 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016
18Z water vapor imagery and RUC analysis indicated large 592 dm H5
ridge in places across southern NM and TX. At the sfc...diffuse
trough axis was present across western CWA...separating area of
rather light westerly winds and stronger southwesterly flow.
H5 ridge over the area will be dominant weather feature through
tomorrow leading to dry conditions and passing high clouds
through the period. Main forecast impact through tomorrow will be
how dry things get each afternoon and resulting fire wx impacts.
Sfc observations,satellite soundings and DNR 12z raob all indicate
very dry air to the west of the area which will gradually drift
into area overnight. With afternoon mixing would not be shocked to
see dewpoints in the west fall into the lower 20s at some point.
This will drive humidities into the critical fire wx range, but
as was the case today winds will not be located with the driest
air and as a result to not expect critical fire wx conditions to
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016
The overall pattern looks fairly quiet over the weekend into
early next week as the current upper high over southern Rockies
gradually flattens out over the weekend. A weak cold front will
slide through the area dry on Saturday dropping temperatures from
unseasonably warm 80s back into the 70s which is still a good
10-15 degrees above normal. After that, a series of weak short
wave troughs aloft eject out of the West Coast trough and move
over the central-northern Plains. This will bring another weak
cold front south, cooling temperatures back into the 60s Tue-Wed.
The next chance of precipitation looks to be at the end of the
forecast period from Wed night into Friday as a good chunk of
energy moves over the Rockies and into the Plains. Main problem is
the system that the models bring in is currently somewhere over
the dateline and likely not sampled well. Thus, model solutions
diverge quite a bit and confidence is low in the timing, location
and amount of any precip. Lowered pops from the init in that time
frame after collaborating with neighbors.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours as scattered
cirrus clouds above 20000 feet overspread the area.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JRM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
331 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...A weak shortwave trough
moving from northern AL into northern GA continues to dampen early
this afternoon, while an upper level ridge of high pressure over the
Desert Southwest and Southern Plains states slowly continues to build
eastward toward the Mississippi Valley region. Deep layer moisture
ahead of the shortwave trough axis remains very meager across our
forecast area this afternoon, and regional radar imagery shows no
precipitation developing in our area as of 3 PM CDT. This trend
places us on track to have zero rainfall at the Mobile Regional
Airport and a trace at Pensacola International Airport for the month
of October. See the Climatology section below for additional
details.
There is little change to the overall forecast reasoning through the
next 24 hours. The upper level ridge of high pressure will remain
centered over Texas through Friday afternoon, with the associated
ridge axis expected to gradually build eastward toward the Gulf Coast
region into Friday. Deep layer subsidence and dry air will support
keeping a dry forecast tonight and Friday. Decreasing cloud cover and
very shallow moisture profiles will favor potential for at least some
patchy fog development late tonight and early Friday morning,
particularly over southeast MS where the latest SREF and HRRR are
indicating potential for some locally dense fog. Later shifts will
monitor trends. Otherwise, we expect lows tonight to range from the
mid 50s to around 60 over interior areas to the lower to mid 60s near
the coast. Highs Friday are forecast to range from the mid to upper
80s over inland locations, and in the lower 80s near the immediate
coast and beaches. /21
.SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...Strong upper level
ridging over the Great Plains will become more zonal into the
weekend before redeveloping late Sunday into early Monday as a
series of low pressure systems dig from the Gulf of Alaska into the
Pacific northwest. At the surface, high pressure currently situated
over the lower Ohio River Valley will drift south into the southeast
U.S. into the weekend. Thus, strong subsidence over the region will
continue our pattern of dry weather and above seasonal temps. Highs
are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s inland and around 80
along the coast this weekend. Overnight lows will dip into the mid
to upper 50s inland to around 60 near the coast each night. /49
.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Upper level ridging builds
back into the eastern CONUS early to mid next week as a large region
of high pressure develops over the Florida peninsula and drifts west
across the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface
will build from the mid-Atlantic coast southwest into the central
Gulf states. With this pattern, can expect to see a redevelopment of
weak onshore surface flow by early to mid next week. However, it
doesn`t look like moisture return will be sufficient enough to
warrant including any long term POPs...especially given the continued
strong mid and upper level subsidence over the forecast area. Expect
daytime highs to run above seasonal next week, with temps reaching
the mid 80s inland and low 80s near the coast each afternoon.
Overnight lows will range from mid to upper 50s inland to around 60
near the coast each night. /49
&&
.MARINE...A surface ridge of high pressure will continue to extend
across the Southeast states and the Central Gulf Coast region through
early next week. This pattern will support a light to moderate
northeast to east flow at night, and light to moderate east to
southeast during the day through the period. Seas will continue to
range from 3 to 5 feet well offshore through the weekend before
gradually subsiding into early next week. /21
&&
.CLIMATOLOGY...Our meteorologists have taken a closer look at the
climatology records for Mobile and Pensacola and have determined that
Mobile has officially only recorded one October with 0.00"
precipitation in 1874. There was a trace of precipitation recorded at
Mobile in October 1978. It is looking very likely that Mobile will
end the month of October 2016 with 0.00"
For Pensacola, there has only been a trace of precipitation recorded
this month. A trace of precipitation for the month of October was
last recorded at Pensacola in 1971. There have been 3 recorded years
of 0.00" October precipitation at Pensacola: 1952, 1963, and 1978.
Pensacola will likely end this month with only a trace of
precipitation. 34/21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 61 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 64 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 66 83 65 84 / 10 0 0 0
Evergreen 56 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 56 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 56 87 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 56 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
358 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Main concern in the near term is timing of any clearing across the
region tonight and how warm to go Friday afternoon.
Pesky narrow band of light showers/sprinkles exiting west central
WIsconsin late this afternoon. It should remain dry the remainder of
the period. Lower clouds remain over most of the CWA this
afternoon...as moist lower level southeast/south flow continues.
Still anticipate overall lower cloud clearing trend to occur during
the night. Latest RAP showing lower level relative humidity clearing
to the northeast...along and north of I94 through about 07z. Slower
to clear into western Wisconsin. Southerly winds will remain up
overnight...so this will preclude significant fog from forming. Did
mention some patchy fog to the far east...where winds will be
lightest.
Warming ahead of the incoming cold front should warm temperatures
into at least the lower 70s to the southwest...record for MSP is 75
in 1948...with mid/upper 60s common elsewhere. The front will
contain a fair amount of high clouds...but we expect the lower
clouds to gradually break up over the far eastern areas into Friday
morning. They may return in the afternoon with the approach of the
cold front and lower level begin to saturate again. Will likely see
some wind gusts around 30 mph into the afternoon...mainly into south
central MN as the gradient tightens vicinity of the front.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
A progressive weather pattern will set through next week with
several upper level waves brining areas of surface high pressure and
low pressure though the region. This will bring windy conditions
across the Upper Midwest. The best chance for rain will be Saturday
afternoon across central MN/WI, and again on Monday across northern
MN/WI. At this time no heavy precipitation is expected.
On Friday night a cold front will move through the region. H850
temperatures at forecast to go from 15C to around 0C between 00Z
Saturday and 00Z Sunday. This cold air advection will keep the
boundary layer mixed and Saturday will be cool and blustery with
northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph. An Upper Level shortwave will skirt
west to east across the region and lead to mid level clouds along
with some light rain, but accumulations should only be around a
tenth of an inch or less since this system will be weakening, not
strengthening.
Sunday will be the nicer day of the two this weekend as high
pressure builds across the region and then tracks eastward during
the day. Therefore expect light winds to start off the day, but then
a warm southerly breeze will ensue during the afternoon. Monday
winds will increase once again, and in fact will likely end up
higher than currently forecast, especially if there is some sun in
the warm sector across southern MN. Most of the precipitation will
stay north of I-94 on Monday.
Looking ahead, a cold front will push well south of the area Monday
night, but there is not much temperature advection. The rain will be
focused along this frontal boundary while high pressure brings dry
weather for the Upper Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Lower end confidence on overall low cloud trends into tonight.
Couple of scenarios that could play out. IFR/MVFR cigs did erode
briefly this morning to the southwest. However moist southerly low
level flow continues and trends on hires models ceiling forecast
is not looking too good for widespread improvement. The northern
and eastern areas may remain in the lower cigs into tonight...before
the lower level flow turns more southwest. This should erode the
lower ceilings to the northeast into the night...with just high
clouds remaining. Started out with lower clouds...with possible
improvement to the southeast into the evening. Tried to erode
clouds to the east later tonight. Followed the .5km condensation
pressure deficit humidity prog from the latest RAP which was
slowest on drying out the lower layer. Southeast to south winds 5
to 10 mph into tonight becoming more sw and becoming gusty ahead
of the cold front which moves into western MN Friday morning.
KMSP...
Lower confidence on overall low cloud trends into tonight. We
could see lower end mvfr cigs remaining into the night...perhaps
finally lifting to the northeast after 06z...with trend of lower
level humidity progs from the RAP. This should become more evident
during the afternoon and could update to leave in the mvfr into
tonight. Expect southeast to south winds into the period...becoming
more southwest and gusty into Friday afternoon ahead of the cold
front.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri nite...VFR. northwest 5 to 10 kts.
Sat...VFR with MVFR/SHRA possible. Wind N at 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind SSE 5 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...DWE