Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/26/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1012 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Little change was required with this update for tonight other
than to add a drizzle mention to areas impacted by fog per
observed trends through 02 UTC.
UPDATE Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Showers continue to slowly move eastward through the James River
valley. Slight changes were made to POPs to reflect the latest
radar trends.
Low ceilings and periods of reduced visibilities are expected to
persist across much of western and central areas through
Wednesday morning. Additionally, the latest 21Z-23Z runs of the
RAP and HRRR models provide good agreement for patchy dense fog in
western and central areas. Fog development is expected to start in
the southwest and south central, expanding northward forming along
a corridor ahead of the occluding front entering western North
Dakota. The forecast has been adjusted with increased fog
coverage for tonight through much of Wednesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
In the short term, concerns are an isolated thunderstorm threat
this afternoon south central, and widespread showers south central
and east central tonight.
At 2 pm CDT a warm frontal boundary extended across eastern
Montana into western South Dakota. This front will lift northeast
tonight. Aloft, a shortwave trough was identified on satellite moving
into the western Dakotas. This feature is flattening the h500
ridge and generating low/mid level vertical motion. Increasing
southerly low level flow over the frontal boundary should
maintain and focus the best precipitation chances across the James
river valley, north through the western Devils lake basin region.
A narrow band of elevated cape will support an isolated
thunderstorm threat for few hours late this afternoon east of
highway 83.
The short range CAM models are favoring some fog formation across
central north dakota in low level upslope flow early tonight.
This forcing should end with a wind shift to the northwest after
midnight across central north dakota.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
On Wednesday, the warm frontal boundary will move east through the
region allowing a westerly mixing wind. Similar conditions are
forecast Thursday with a pacific type cold front. Warmer
temperatures both days will result in temperatures into the mid
60s Wednesday to lower 70s Thursday across much of western and
south central North Dakota. Mid 50s to mid 60s are expected to the
east.
Cooler air will return for the weekend with the next shortwave
expected to bring scattered showers across the region Friday
night and Saturday. Highs by Saturday will be in the 40s to lower
50s. Seasonal Temperatures in the 40s and 50s are expected Sunday
through Tuesday with scattered showers in general cyclonic flow
aloft.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
LIFR and IFR ceilings will prevail across much of central and
northwest North Dakota tonight into Wednesday. Fog is also expected
to expand in coverage across these areas through the night into
Wednesday morning. For KDIK and southwest North Dakota, fog and
low stratus may develop briefly tonight with easterly upslope
winds before winds turn to the west behind an occluding front.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
616 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Aloft: A ridge was over the Plains with a weak shortwave trof
moving thru it. WV imagery showed this trof from WY-CO-NM. This
trof will move thru tonight. The ridge will retrograde to the
Rockies in its wake tomorrow with NW flow over the Plains.
Surface: Cyclogenesis was underway. Low pres will emerge into Neb
this eve and will cross SE Neb tonight on its way into IA. A warm
front will E/SE from this low but there will be no real cool
front. Just a trailing trof/dryline near Hwy 283 at 19Z. This trof
will cross the fcst area tonight. Weak high pres will temporarily
nose into the region tomorrow.
Another very warm day was in progress with breezy SE winds
gusting up to 25 kts at times over the SE 1/2 of the fcst area.
The fog that develop W of Hwy 183 lifted into a stubborn bank of
stratus that has been slow to erode. This has kept temps cooler
with MCK at 55F and LXN at 60 at 19Z.
Until Sunset: P-M/cloudy. Probably dry. As mentioned in the 1259
pm version of this product...an EML/cap has advected over the
region. Temps will peak 75-84F over much of the fcst area with
dwpts 55-61F. With very steep (8C/km) mid-lvl lapse rates above
this...MLCAPE should maximize as high as 1500 J/kg. However...
forcing associated with the trof is weak. Mesoanalysis shows CINH
less than -100 J/kg ...and we are approaching peak heating.
We might see an isolated shwr/tstm E of hwy 281...but don`t bet
on it. The cap will probably prevent/delay convective initiation
long enough for the sfc convergence/trof to be E and S of the fcst
area. Anything that develops will probably be after sunset and
will be over Ern Neb and/or Ern/Cntrl KS. That is exactly what the
HRRR and HRRRX are showing.
W of Hwy 281 over Neb there`s zero chance of rain.
Low temps tonight still way above normal (15-20F).
Wed: Back to very nice wx with high temps still 10F above normal.
NW winds will be a little brisk thru early afternoon (12-16 mph).
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Aloft: A ridge will dominate over the Cntrl USA which means above
to much above normal warmth will cont. A shortwave trof will move
in off the Pac and thru the ridge Fri night into Sat. Another
weaker trof is slated to move thru Mon.
Surface: A cool front will make its way thru the Wrn USA the next
few days. Low pres will form and move E thru the Nrn Plains Fri-
Sat. The cool front will move thru Fri night into Sat morning.
High pres will briefly nose in Sat-Sun with the next low forming
and cool frontal passage occurring Mon.
There is no end in sight to the anomalous warmth. Thu-Fri and Mon
are looking incredibly warm (at least 20F and close to 25F Fri).
Raised temps above fcst initialization Fri in coord with
neighboring offices. Mon we are probably not warm enough yet but
there`s time.
No high-impact/hazardous wx is currently foreseen...but fire wx
could be a concern if winds can coincide with low RH. No obvious
threat are seen yet.
There is no potential for even minor rainfall. This will go down
as one of the driest Oct`s on record at GRI (and likely many other
locations).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
The front is moving slowly eastward and has gone through KEAR and
is approaching KGRI as of 23Z. Have sped up the frontal passage at
KGRI with best estimates of the frontal movement. Will monitor and
adjust if necessary. Winds will become more northerly through the
night and increase in speed during the day tomorrow. Think any
precipitation that may form will stay east of the terminals and
ceilings are high enough that VFR conditions are expected to
prevail.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Billings Wright
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
731 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.UPDATE...
Early evening forecast update includes some changes to trends in
temperatures and sky conditions. Water vapor imagery shows a
shortwave trough moving across Texas producing quite a bit of high
clouds. High clouds are expected to move out of the area by the
early morning hours. We will be watching these trends since if
clouds do clear out the potential for fog will increase across the
area. Forecast will keep mention of patchy fog but may need to
ramp up wording if it looks like conditions become more favorable
for fog. No other changes were made to the forecast other than
updates for current trends.
Overpeck
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
AVIATION...
Little change from the previous set of TAFs. VFR through the
evening with mid to high clouds passing by with a weak upper
trough. Though recent HRRR runs may clear things out a little
early, still expect to see fog in many of the same
northern/western rural sites that we saw this morning. Confident
enough to go down to IFR at CLL, UTS, CXO, and LBX. Indeed, if the
HRRR is on the ball, this may not be aggressive enough at some/all
of these sites. Elsewhere, still have some vis reductions, but
keep at MVFR or VFR thanks to lingering impacts of the higher
cloud decks.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 85 63 86 61 / 10 10 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 62 85 62 86 64 / 10 10 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 72 81 72 82 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...39
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
908 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.UPDATE...Evening forecast update.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Our weather during the overnight period will be
dictated by high clouds moving into the CWA from the west. Kept
overnight lows on the warm side of guidance as the cloud cover will
inhibit ideal radiational cooling that we have seen the last few
evenings. This cloud cover will also help to minimize any fog
potential. The HRRR tries to develop a few areas of patchy fog across
the Delta, but confidence is too low to include mention in the
forecast. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is on track. /TW/
&&
.AVIATION...High clouds will filter into the region from the west overnight and
be somewhat thick at times across the region through tomorrow.
Any ceilings related to this should remain greater than 20 KFT.
Otherwise, VFR flight categories will prevail at all TAF sites this
afternoon and tonight. Winds tonight will tend to be light and
variable or calm but tomorrow will pick up from the south by late
morning and occasionally blow greater than 10 mph./BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
DISCUSSION...Tonight through Monday afternoon...
Persistence is the name of the game over the forecast area over the
next 24 hours. Conditions will continue to warm a bit through the
period as high pressure remains wedged into the region from the
east, and low level flow over the region becomes more southerly.
Ridging aloft will weaken somewhat as a trough begins swinging east
out of the nation`s mid-section towards the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. The result in the short term will be increasing high clouds
from west to east over the CWA overnight and into Monday.
As far as temperatures are concerned, the combination of very dry
soil conditions and decent radiational cooling will result in
another cool night. Thus, lows Wednesday morning are expected to
range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Then for Wednesday afternoon,
highs should again top out in the low and middle 80s. /19/
Wednesday night through Monday...the best chance for rain in our CWA
through Monday is Wednesday night into Thursday morning and this
will be a very low chance mainly over east Mississippi. Otherwise,
warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue for
most of our CWA through Monday.
Weak WAA ahead of an approaching shortwave trough is expected to
lead to the development of a few light showers over east Mississippi
Wednesday evening. The shortwave trough will shift east of our CWA
Thursday morning stranding a weak cold front as it approaches our
northern zones. Models are in agreement today that the cold front
will stall north of our CWA and the rain chances will taper off
Thursday as the shortwave shifts east of Mississippi. With no change
in airmass, we will be left with a moister airmass than we have seen
recently. This will result less critical afternoon minimum relative
humidities. Otherwise, a persistence forecast resumes Friday with a
continuation of warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather
areawide through Monday. Normal highs run in the lower 70s and
afternoon highs will be mostly in the low to mid 80s through the
period. Normal morning lows run in the mid to upper 40s. Morning
lows will be more than ten degrees above normal through the period.
/22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 51 84 59 82 / 1 1 15 20
Meridian 49 87 58 82 / 1 1 16 21
Vicksburg 48 83 57 83 / 1 1 4 10
Hattiesburg 50 84 59 83 / 1 1 16 23
Natchez 51 81 60 82 / 1 1 8 16
Greenville 51 83 56 82 / 1 1 3 4
Greenwood 52 83 57 82 / 1 1 4 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
19/22/BB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1106 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016
Hourly grids have been freshened up based on recent observations.
However, no changes were needed to min T at this time. Frost
should develop toward dawn in some of the valleys.
UPDATE Issued at 810 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016
Hourly grids have been freshened up based on recent observations
and trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time. High
pressure centered to the north and northeast of the area tonight,
mostly clear to clear skies, and light winds should set the stage
for valley frost formation or if not, lows near freezing for much
of valleys in southeastern KY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 450 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016
20z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving through the Ohio
Valley. This is providing mostly clear skies, aside from some high
clouds drifting through from the northwest. The cool high to the
north and good sunshine yielded temps ranging from the lower 70s
south to low 60s north this afternoon. Dewpoints, meanwhile, were
able to mix down into the low to mid 30s most places, but many
spots did see some 20s. The winds were generally light and
variable this afternoon.
The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast as they all bring a developing trough into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. This will be accompanied by
a batch of energy passing through the Ohio valley into Thursday
morning. The GFS is slight stronger with this feature than the
ECMWF and Canadian, but actual differences are relatively small.
Accordingly, a general model blend was preferred with a lean
toward the HRRR and NAM12 and significant consideration given to
the dry air aloft (and co-op MOS) that has been resulting in a
larger than forecast diurnal range of late for the area.
Sensible weather will feature another cool and mostly clear night
with light to calm winds. This will set the stage for chilly low
temperatures and likely areas of frost in the deeper valleys.
Patchy dense fog will again be found near the rivers late, as
well, helping keep those spots from seeing much in the way of
frost. The frost is anticipated to be a bit more widespread than
last night so have issued a frost advisory for our eastern 2/3rds
where radiational cooling will be maximized. More sunshine and
winds switching to the southwest will mean a warm day Wednesday
with low to mid 70s anticipated for highs. Attention will then
turn to the, unfortunately drying, cold front inbound for
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Despite the withering of
the model QPF with this, there will be enough elevated instability
and dynamics aloft to yield a stray thunderstorm or two for
mainly northwest parts of the area overnight into Thursday
morning. Have included this in the grids and HWO.
Again started with the CONSShort/ShortBlend for the bulk of the
grids with adjustments to the temps tonight and to a lesser extent
on Wednesday night revolving around terrain differences, as well
as knocking dewpoints down in the afternoon Wednesday. As for PoPs
- did bring them up into the slight chance range Wednesday night -
a bit higher than consensus MOS guidance - as the front starts to
press into the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016
An upper level trough axis will be swinging through the Great Lakes
at the start of the period, as a surface low tracks across the Ohio
Valley. An associated cold frontal boundary will move through the
area Thursday afternoon, bringing scattered showers and a slight
chance of thunder. The remainder of the extended period will likely
remain mild and dry with high pressure parked over the southeastern
CONUS.
High pressure will build into the region by Friday morning, allowing
for valley temps to drop off into the upper 30s/low 40s. However, a
quick return of warm air will take place Friday as the upper ridge
builds into the southeastern US. With the return flow in place,
temperatures should rebound into the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday
afternoon. Well-above normal temperatures are anticipated on
Saturday with most locations reaching the upper 70s, possibly eeking
out 80 degrees in spots. If we hit 80 degrees here at the Jackson
Weather Office, we will tie for the most 80 degree days in October
on record. As high pressure gradually shifts towards the Atlantic
Ocean Sunday through Tuesday, conditions will be dry as high
temperatures reach the mid and upper 70s each day with lows in the
upper 40s/low 50s. Tuesday may be another day that afternoon highs
reach 80 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 812 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016
Mainly VFR conditions and light winds will be experienced through
the period. Some patchy valley fog is expected from 5Z to 14Z
along the rivers, but this should not impact the TAF sites. Clouds
will begin to thicken and lower ahead of a cold front late in the
period, but only high clouds and some mid clouds are expected.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ052-060-069-080-
085>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
642 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. A weak
cold front will move across the TAF sites Wednesday morning which
will swing the wind out of the north.
Jordan
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016/
SHORT TERM...
High clouds thinning now just to the east of a weak upper impulse
edging into the high plains. A small cumulus field in eastern New
Mexico has responded to the surface warming in that area, and has
some potential for brief thunder development close to our southwest
corner late this afternoon. Otherwise we are not seeing response
across the border into our Texas counties. An earlier HRRR run was
one of few solutions briefly convecting in this area, but has been
vacant of thunder development in recent hours. The surface based
convectively available energy is significant today, while a small
area of inhibition still was needing removal. Owing to the delayed
surface warming, and lack of solution support, this forecast will
remain void of thunder mention for this evening and overnight.
Clearing skies will follow overnight, while a surface trough with
mild south to southwesterly flow will dominate. Late in the night,
the trough will edge south-southeast with low level flow gradually
veering and drying. A weak cool front will cross our northwest
corner just before sunrise with additional drying and slight
cooling. This front will bisect the area northeast to southwest by
mid morning Wednesday with surface flow turning north to northeast
and perhaps even a few breezier gusts close to 20 mph that might
briefly feel like a real cold front. Minimal thunder chances along
this front in our southeast Wednesday, will leave out for this
forecast with very little solution support. Stout upper level
ridging will build in from the west and clear skies will lead to yet
another above normal temperature day by afternoon. RMcQueen
LONG TERM...
Fairly benign weather is expected through the extended forecast with
temperatures residing well to the warm side of average. This will
occur as an upper level ridge builds in from the southwest late
week. The ridge will gradually deamplify and shift to the Deep South
next week leaving behind southwesterly flow aloft for West Texas.
Dry conditions will prevail as any embedded disturbances will be
directed up and around the high/region. One shortwave trough
traversing the Midwest Saturday may push a weak cold front toward or
briefly into the CWA late Saturday, but it will quickly retreat back
northward with minimal impacts locally. A similar scenario may
unfold Monday night or Tuesday. Altogether, the extended forecast is
dry and continues to favor the warm side of guidance, as has
generally verified the best as of late.
&&
.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
14
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
918 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.UPDATE...
Increased thunderstorm chances for north central and central
Oklahoma Wednesday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Observing short range/mesoscale guidance trends from the HRRR and
RAP over the past few hours has pointed towards increased
thunderstorm chances for north central and central Oklahoma early
Wednesday and through sunrise. Currently, isolated thunderstorms
continue to initiate and evolve just west of Dodge City, Kansas.
This activity is focused along a weak surface boundary/trough,
tied back to a short wave trough visible on water vapor. The
expectation is for this activity to gradually increase over the
next few hours and push east and southeast following modest height
falls and continued influence from the low level jet. As storms
begin to push into north central Oklahoma near daybreak, expect a
gradual increase in elevated instability and mid-level lapse
rates. The remaining area of convection will be supported along a
decent low level theta-e axis and slide southeastward across
central Oklahoma through midday. Shear profiles and instability
would suggest some small hail potential with the strongest storms,
but do not anticipate any severe weather at this time.
Kurtz
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
AVIATION...26/00z TAF Issuance...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Scattered to Broken mid to high clouds will persist into the
evening and overnight. Increasing cloud cover, Broken to Overcast,
mid level ceilings are expected to develop after midnight as a
frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. There is a chance
of showers and thunderstorms with this activity early Wednesday
morning, near day break, which may impact KPNC. South and
southwest winds will increase ahead of the frontal boundary,
shifting to the north behind the front late in the period.
Kurtz
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough aloft will bring a chance of
showers/thunderstorms to about the northeast half of Oklahoma late
tonight into early Wednesday. Instability, convective inhibition,
and vertical wind shear do not appear to come together to support
much in the way of strong/severe storms, although we can`t rule
out some strong/marginally severe storms tomorrow afternoon over
the eastern 1/3 of Oklahoma. The afternoon convection will be
highly dependent on what happens earlier in the day.
After this system moves away Wednesday evening, a ridge aloft
will build over the region...much like a summer weather pattern.
No meaningful change to this pattern occurs until at least the
early part of next week.
A surface trough to our northwest will generate enough of a
pressure gradient on Friday to cause elevated fire weather
concerns over much of northwestern Oklahoma, given the expected
dry and warm conditions that afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 62 80 58 80 / 10 50 10 0
Hobart OK 63 81 56 82 / 10 10 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 63 84 59 83 / 10 10 10 0
Gage OK 59 80 47 84 / 20 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 64 77 52 79 / 50 60 0 0
Durant OK 60 81 61 85 / 10 20 20 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
03/04
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Weak surface cyclogenesis taking place in north central Kansas ahead
of a modest wave in the zonal flow aloft. Cirrus has been persistent
but not terribly thick ahead of this wave, and in concert with gusty
south winds, highs have pushed into the mid 80s in some locations.
Despite dewpoints reaching into the lower 60s, an elevated mixed
layer has kept convective inhibition well over 100 J/kg per RAP
analysis.
Concern for convection in/near peak heating continues to wane with
an overall slower trend to the wave and the cap in place. The wave
is still expected to deepen as it passes through Central Plains
tonight into early Wednesday, and with well above normal moisture in
place, should see at least scattered convection develop, with
coverage likely increasing as both moisture and low level jet ramp
up. Lapse rates aloft should be steep enough for around 1000 J/kg of
elevated CAPE along with some shear for minor potential for some
large hail with a few storms. Precip will likely linger in east
central Kansas after sunrise Wednesday, but subsidence behind the
trough quickly builds in by late morning. The modified continental
airmass moving in should only drop highs back into the low to mid
70s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
High pressure gradually drifting eastward from the CWA on Thursday
will allow for one final mild afternoon with highs in the lower to
middle 70s. As the upper ridge amplifies over the central plains by
Friday, the sfc pressure gradient increases southerly winds at 10 to
20 mph sustained throughout the afternoon. In addition, 925 mb temps
are near or above 20 C from all guidance, suggesting lows Friday
morning in the upper 50s with highs in the lower and middle 80s to
be common. Saturday morning lows may also remain pretty mild around
60 degrees, before some high clouds increase and a weak cold front
passes through dry. Areas along and south of I 70 may once again
reach the upper 70s Saturday before the cooler airmass drops highs
back into the lower 70s on Sunday. Extended guidance remains pretty
consistent for Halloween as broad troughing over the northern plains
pushes another cold front through aft 00Z. The cold air lags
somewhat behind the boundary with readings in the upper 70s for
highs Monday and overnight lows into the lower 50s. Shortly
thereafter on Tuesday, GFS becomes the more progressive solution
with a shortwave trough lifting from the southwest Tuesday and
Wednesday. Low end chances for thunderstorms were mentioned since
the ECMWF advertises a dry forecast with the slower progression of
the wave progged to arrive later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
VFR conditions are likely though the TAF period. Do expect a
broken line of thunderstorms to approach TAF sites after 06Z, but
unsure how widespread the storms will be so have used a VCTS group
ato highlight most likely timing. Storms could bring brief MVFR or
IFR visibility. Also expect periods of LLWS this evening and
overnight with winds above 1500 feet in the 43-48 kt range.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
517 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and chilly day will be followed by a dose of cold rain
later tonight into Thursday with a wet snow accumulation possible
from the Northern Alleghenies into Poconos. Chilly air will hold
its ground through the end of the week with some moderation in
temperatures expected over the weekend and into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With the exception of the Harrisburg metro area, 08z observations
show freezing temperatures (26-32F) across the majority of Central
Pennsylvania. Expect temps to drop a few more degrees prior to
daybreak which should ensure an end to the growing season for the
counties in the Freeze Warning.
A sunny start should begin to fade behind increasing clouds from
west to east this evening as a low pressure system tracks from IA
over Lake Erie tonight into early Thursday morning. Strong warm
air advection and isentropic lift via strong SSW low level flow
will support expanding zone of pcpn overrunning a retreating cold
airmass ahead of the aforementioned area of low pressure. This
should bring a cold rain along with some wintry weather concerns
across the Northern Alleghenies into the Endless Mtns/Poconos.
Evaporative cooling/web bulb effects should allow for a period of
wet snow/sleet at the onset before a transition back to rain
occurs later Thursday morning as the boundary layer slowly warms
up. If temperatures can drop at or below freezing, would not rule
out some pockets of freezing rain as temperatures warm aloft, but
high resolution ensemble blend keeps surface temps AOA 32F. Marginal
low level temperatures near freezing and relatively warm surfaces
given time of year/first snow make for a difficult winter wx fcst
with snowfall somewhat dependent on elevation, rate and type of
surface (grass vs. pavement) with northern valleys likely having
little to no accumulation. The time of day (overnight-predawn) is
most favorable for early season accums and also most problematic
in terms of impact to the AM commute. Secondary roads over the
highest terrain could be slushy for a time with some slick spots.
Therefore, will highlight potential winter wx threats/risk in the
HWO for now and allow dayshift to assess possibility of an advy
given the early season aspect and timing impact. The 26/00z NCAR
ensemble and SPC SSEO both add confidence to winter ptypes with
the NCAR more in line with conceptual snow-mix-rain dominant
ptype progression while SSEO seems to favor more fzra/ice. The
dayshift should have the HRRR available for additional consult.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering wintry ptypes should transition to plain rain by later
Thursday morning in the northern tier. Elsewhere, a chilly rain
will expand south/east and continue through the afternoon before
tapering to showers from west to east into Thursday night.
Downstream blocking should allow northern stream energy to phase
with the lead trough and eventually result in a negatively tilted
trough over the Northeast U.S. by Friday morning. Models show the
formation of a triple point low deepening along the coast into the
Canadian Maritimes by Saturday morning.
A brisk northwest flow may afford some lake enhancement to shower
activity Thursday night and temps are cold enough to mention
rain/snow showers especially in the orographically favored areas
downwind of Lake Erie. Overall the trend should be toward drier
conditions into Friday. The wind gusts may end up being a little
stronger than forecast on the backside of the intensifying low.
High pressure briefly returns later Friday afternoon/evening
before shifting southeast Friday night into Saturday morning as
low pressure tracks across the Upper Great Lakes.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models and ensembles generally agree in bringing a weakening cold
front through the area on Saturday and stalling it out near the
PA/MD border. POPs are in the chance range mainly over the NW 1/2
with little in the way of moisture/QPF. The EC/GFS seem to be
trending toward the idea of a wave of low pressure developing to
the west along the wavy boundary and possibly bringing a better
chance for appreciable rainfall /0.25-0.50 inch/ to southern PA on
Sunday. Beyond Sunday, high pressure dominates the pattern
favoring dry weather.
A noticeable rebound in temperatures appears likely on Saturday
with an ensemble blend yielding highs 10-15 degrees warmer than
Friday. Temperatures may fall back on Sunday before moderating
again into early next week as southerly flow develops ahead of low
pressure in the Upper Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As the region has decoupled and temperatures have dropped,
generally VFR skies will dominate the pattern. However due to the
low temperatures and low dewpoint depressions there remains a
chance for patchy valley fog overnight through the early morning
hours. The mains area of concern is mainly along/in the river
valleys. The only TAF sites that are of concern is BFD and JST,
though JST still has weak northwesterly flow which should
alleviate any fog/mist from forming.
Wednesday will be VFR ahead of a storm system that will be moving
into the lower great lakes late in the day. A warm front will
lift north into the area Wednesday night and Thursday bringing
widespread reduced conditions.
Outlook...
Fri...AM shrasn/low cigs possible W Mtns.
Sat...SHRA w/IFR CIGs possible N PM. Otherwise no sig wx.
Sun...SHRA w/MVFR cigs N and W. Breezy NW wind.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ026>028-035-
036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...La Corte/Ceru
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
140 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
...Updated Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Strong to severe thunderstorms in the process of weakening this
morning across the eastern zones. Some storms have been severe
this evening with wind signatures on radar and up to quarter size
hail. Dual pol estimates show up to 2 inches of rain have fallen
near Larned/Pawnee county, La Crosse/Rush county, and eastern Ness
county. Further convective development is probable through
sunrise, in response to the LLJ, with activity being directed
toward Medicine Lodge. This evolution is shown nicely by the 00z
NAM and latest HRRR runs. Any showers/storms near Medicine Lodge
around sunrise will not last long, as much drier/more stable air
overspreads SW KS. North winds will be modestly gusty for a few
hours this morning behind the weak cold front, followed by a
stellar autumn afternoon. Diminishing NE winds under a clear sky,
with comfortable afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Another period of unseasonably warm and completely dry weather is
on the way for SW Kansas.
High pressure ridge axis rebuilds strongly onto the plains
Thursday. Full sunshine and modest southerly winds at 10-20 mph.
Lower 80s return for most locales.
Record or near-record heat is expected on Friday, as SW flow
develops aloft, and 850 mb temperatures climb back well into the
20s C. Mid to upper 80s will be widespread Friday afternoon.
SW winds will be strong and gusty Friday morning as the LLJ
weakens and mixes out, with winds diminishing during the afternoon
as a weak boundary slides south into SW Kansas. It is south of
this boundary, with the aid of downslope and compression, where
some locales in the SE zones should achieve the lower 90s. The
record high at Dodge City for October 28th is 85/1922, and will
likely be broken.
A very weak shortwave ripples through Saturday, accompanied by a
northerly wind shift and several degrees of "cooling" back to the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Not record territory, but still some 15
degrees above late October normals.
Sunday and Halloween...Another warming trend and more dry weather.
Expect lower 80s to be common Halloween afternoon with few clouds.
Have high confidence that trick or treating will be warm and dry
this Halloween.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Convection will remain east and south of the terminals for the
next several hours. Broken mid clouds and perhaps a straggling
rain shower through about 09z. Consensus of short term models
relegates fog/stratus development mainly to the SE of DDC during
the 09-14z time frame. Maintained a TEMPO group for DDC for
reduced vis in BR Wed AM, but confidence is low. VFR/SKC expected
at all airports by 15z, with north winds 13-23 kts for several
hours before weakening this afternoon. Winds expected to become
light and variable at all airports around sunset as weak surface
high pressure ridge settles into SW KS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 78 48 80 / 30 0 0 0
GCK 49 79 45 82 / 20 0 0 0
EHA 50 79 47 81 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 51 80 46 81 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 53 76 47 79 / 30 0 0 0
P28 61 79 50 79 / 40 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
240 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
High clouds will continue to clear from west to east this morning
with a passing short wave. The clearing skies will allow for the
air to cool to near saturation by sunrise with some patchy fog
possible. The potential for dense fog will be fairly low since
some higher momentum air from a 30 knot low level jet will keep
the air mixed up down low. The low level jet will also bring up a
surge of Gulf moisture which will result in a brief period of
morning low clouds over much of the region.
The remainder of today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm
with afternoon highs in the lower and middle 80s. A cold front will
approach the region from the northwest through the day, but
vigorous mixing along the leading edge should slow its southeast
progression. The front will most likely stall just northwest of
the region late this afternoon and begin to retreat northward
tonight. Even though the front is not expected to directly impact
the region, there is a potential for some afternoon convection to
develop on the front in Oklahoma. These storms will move southeast
and may impact the northeast quarter of North Texas this evening.
Although severe storms appear unlikely, there should be enough mid
level instability for some decent updrafts with a potential for
gusty winds and small hail. Any storms that do manage to develop
should either dissipate or move east of the region overnight once
large scale subsidence increases on the back side of the
departing upper trough.
A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the state Thursday
and remain in place through the weekend, resulting in warm and
rain-free weather with highs mainly in the middle 80s.
The ridge will begin to break down late in the weekend with the
ridge axis shifting to the east early next week. An upper level
trough will approach from the west Monday and Tuesday and result
in a deepening surface trough across the Central High Plains and a
surge of moisture across Central and North Texas. The increase in
moisture and large scale lift will result in the return of some
low rain/storm chances Tuesday and Wednesday.
79
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1110 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
Mid and high level clouds continue to shift their way east across
the state along with the shortwave trough responsible for their
development. There is very little if any in the way of low cloud
development on the back side of the mid level cloud cover, and
the latest guidance seems to have picked up on this. For this
forecast, we have scaled back the development of mvfr cigs at all
locations for Wednesday morning based on recent trends. However,
since the HRRR is still sticking with a low cloud forecast, we
will continue to keep a few hours of MVFR CIGS at all location for
a few hours around sunrise, with VFR thereafter. Otherwise, south
winds around 10 KTs or so will be the norm. As far as any
convection, we will need to keep an eye on the Bonham arrival gate
Wednesday evening where scattered convection may be an issue. The
rest of the forecast area should remain rather quiet.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 65 85 64 84 / 10 20 5 5 0
Waco 85 62 86 60 85 / 10 10 5 5 0
Paris 82 60 83 60 84 / 10 30 5 5 0
Denton 83 61 84 60 84 / 10 20 5 5 0
McKinney 82 62 83 61 83 / 10 20 5 5 0
Dallas 84 65 85 64 85 / 10 20 5 5 0
Terrell 83 62 84 60 84 / 10 20 5 5 0
Corsicana 83 62 85 61 84 / 10 10 5 5 0
Temple 84 62 85 59 84 / 10 10 5 5 0
Mineral Wells 85 61 85 60 85 / 10 10 5 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
90/79
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
439 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure traveling across northern Ohio will bring showers and
possible a thunderstorm tonight into Thursday morning. High
pressure and a dry airmass will return for Thursday night and
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Two issues that need to be dealt with for the beginning of the
forecast period. First is the Frost Advisory in Central Ohio. Due
to persistent cloud cover, temperatures have stayed warmer than
previously thought. Also based on the latest satellite loop it
looks like the clouds will linger through sunrise. So will be
dropping the Advisory with 4 AM issuance.
Second issue is the area showers working ewd through IL and IN.
Last couple of volume scans have shown what appears to be a weaken
trend. Still think that some of the showers will hold together
into the Whitewater Valley and West Central Ohio. This is
supported by the latest runs of the HRRR and RAP. Not sure that
is will really produce measurable amounts, so will carry some
scattered sprinkles for the first few hours of the forecast.
During the late morning hours, the better isentropic lift
across a warm front will shift north. This should keep pcpn chance
this afternoon across nrn Ohio, and will allow some sunshine to the
srn counties. Temperatures in nrn KY will warm to around 70,
however as you head n, highs will drop to the mid 50s for the
extreme nrn counties of the fa.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tonight a H5 s/w digging thru the upper Great Lakes will push a
compact sfc low and cdfnt into the fa. The trend of the finer
resolution models have been to delay the onset of the pcpn. So
slowed down the PoPs several hours, waiting until midnight (04Z)
to bring likely PoPs into the nw counties. There is still
questions about how the srn part of the pcpn will hold together.
Kept likely PoPs n of I-70 and tapered the pops down to chc and
slgt chc as you head south. The amount of instability is also in
question tonight. It is very marginal, but don`t want to keep flip
flopping, so since the previous forecast had slgt chc thunder,
will leave it in the forecast. Bumped up lows to range in the 50s,
with a few upper 40s.
With the slower solution, Thursday would begin with the front
still across the fa along with pcpn. Highest PoPs will be in
Central Ohio with decreasing values both south and west. Expect
the pcpn to be e of the fa by noon. Temperatures look like they
will be non-diurnal Thursday, with high temperatures occurring
during the late morning hours before the cooler air works in.
High pressure will begin to build in Thursday night and the high
will be centered over the area Friday morning. Lows Thursday night
will range from the upper 30s to the lower 40s. The area of high
pressure will push off to the east Friday allowing southerly flow
to push highs back into the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds will pick up on Saturday out of the southwest. Wind gusts
of 30 to 35 mph will be possible. These warm winds out of the
southwest will bring much above normal temperatures to the area.
High temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees above
normal, however still around 5 to 7 degrees below record at this
time. The forecast high on Saturday at CMH is 75, record 80,
normal 60. The forecast high on Saturday at CVG is 78, record 83,
normal 62. The forecast high on Saturday at DAY is 75, record 82,
and normal 59.
A frontal boundary will work through the region on Sunday. Moisture
is limited with this feature and therefore went dry to chance for
precipitation chances. The best chance of some light shower
activity will be across northeastern portions of the forecast area
around CMH.
High pressure will then work into the area Sunday night into Monday.
There is not a significant precipitation signal for the end of the
long term and therefore went with dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SCT to BKN deck of mid and high level clouds will persist
through the remainder of the overnight period for the TAF sites.
With these clouds in place and the flow unlikely to go completely
calm, fog potential will be quite limited, even for KLUK.
Scattered -SHRA across eastern IL will continue to work east
through the overnight and early morning hours. Hi-res suite of
models show some of this activity holding together into west-
central Ohio towards sunrise. While the ARW/NMM/RAP indicate just
some spotty very light rain showers for KDAY around 12z, the most
recent several runs of the HRRR have been a bit more robust in
sustaining the activity through west-central Ohio. Do think the
HRRR is being too aggressive, but decided to go with a VCSH for
just KDAY during the morning hours to account for this potential.
SCT/BKN mid and high level clouds will stick around through the
day Wednesday as a sfc low pressure approaches the region from the
west towards the end of the TAF period. Latest model runs,
including high-res solutions, have backed off on the onset of
scattered -SHRA working into western terminals. Do think scattered
showers will approach KDAY around/shortly after 03z Thursday. Have
left out mention of precip for now at all other sites except for
30-hr KCVG as activity will likely move through after 06z
Thursday.
Winds will veer more easterly and then southeasterly through the
day. Winds will be 10-15 kts, with the potential for a few gusts
to 18 kts during the afternoon, especially for KDAY. Towards the
very end of the period, winds will go more southwesterly for
western terminals as the cold front approaches Thursday morning.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Wednesday night through Friday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...KC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
414 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Low pressure centered over Western Iowa will track to northern
Illinois by this evening...across northern Indiana tonight and
into the eastern great lakes Thursday. Weak high pressure will
build our way Thursday night. It will be warmer Friday into the
weekend with an increasing southerly flow across Indiana.
In the long term period...temperatures will be warmer than normal
with a strong upper ridge over the lower Mississippi valley.
An upper disturbance will bring a few showers to northern portions
of central Indiana Saturday night and Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM.../Today and Tonight/
Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Area of light showers were spreading east across central Indiana
mainly north of interstate 70. These were being caused by strong
warm advection ahead of a warm front. Expect these showers to
move east of our region by mid morning. Models indicate a warm
front will move northeast across central Indiana today as low
pressure over western Iowa moves to northern Illinois by this
evening.
Once the first area of showers exit our region...it should be dry
most areas until mid or late afternoon across northwest sections as
models have trended a little slower in spreading precipitation
southeast into our region this afternoon. Will mention chance of
showers and an isolated thunderstorm across the northwest half of
our region by late afternoon.
Rain chances increase tonight as a cold front pushes southeast
across our region. Went with likely POPS over the north half and
high chance POPS in the south. Showers will probably end over
western sections late tonight after cold front moves through.
Went close to warmer MET temperatures today with some sun midday and
good warm advection for tonight stayed close to a MOS blend on
tempertures. Anyways highs will be from around 60 north to lower
70s south and lows tonight from the upper 40s northwest to the
middle and upper 50s southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Thursday through Friday Night/
Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Will mention a slight chance of showers far east early Thursday.
Otherwise it will be dry Thursday through Friday night. A cold
front will be across Ohio and extreme southeast Indiana early
Thursday and this will move on to the east as high pressure over
Iowa builds to Indiana by Thursday night. Models indicate weak cold
advection and lots of clouds Thursday with some clearing Thursday
afternoon. Thursday night will be mostly clear southwest and
partly cloudy northeast and Friday will be mostly clear.
Stayed close to a MOS blend Thursday and Thursday night. Friday
will be warmer as high pressure over Indiana moves on to the east
allowing an increasing southerly flow on Friday. Went slightly
above MOS temperatures over western sections with lots of sun and
good warm advection. The southerly flow will increase Friday night
and temperatures will become quite mild by then.
&&
.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Ensembles in fairly good agreement with respect to the upcoming
weather pattern in the extended. Main feature will be a short wave
trough that is expected to move across the Great Lakes in the Friday
night to Sunday time frame. Today`s ensembles are more bullish on
the precipitation threat as the tail end of this short wave passes
over the local area Saturday night and Sunday. For now, will bring
in some small chance Pops to mainly the northern zones during these
times, and keep the rest of the area dry. If model trends continue
in this direction, PoPs will likely be extended farther south.
Another, potentially stronger, upper trough may lift northeast out
of the Plains early next week. At this time, it appears main
precipitation threat will be after this period, so will keep the
rest of the extended dry for now.
&&
.AVIATION /Discussion for the 260900Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Patches of light rain currently across northwest and west central
Indiana may occasionally affect the KIND terminal through about
261200Z. Appears precipitation will be light enough as to not
restrict visibility.
Will also bump up the wind speed forecast to about 8-10 kts for the
rest of the early morning hours based on current conditions.
Previous discussion follows.
Rain over central Illinois as of 1130 pm EDT could impact KHUF and
KLAF starting after 7z and could hang around as long as 11z before
lifting north and east of the sites. At this time models show rain
with this reaching KHUF for a quick bit and staying at KLAF longer
and HRRR and RAP both agree with this. May include a tempo at KLAF
for a couple hours of MVFR visibilities.
VFR through the day Wednesday with deteriorating conditions starting
sometime after 21z Wednesday as a cold front approaches and rain
begins to overspread the area.
Light easterly winds will veer to southeasterly by midmorning and
then southerly during the evening, and increase in speed to around 8-
12 kts with gusts around 20 kts at times during the afternoon and
evening at KIND and KLAF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP/JAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
326 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(today through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Latest medium range models indicate no significant active weather to
contend with over the next several days...leaving temperature the
main issue. Sfc meteograms are clearly showing a roller coaster
trend thru mid week...starting with a downward trend today thru
tonight in response to prevailing nw winds. Expect highs this aftn
generally in the low/mid 60s...and overnight lows in the low 40s.
On Thursday...sfc high pressure situated east of the CWA will allow
for warm backside return flow into the region...allowing highs to
peak in the low/mid 70s per both MET/MAV guidance. Even warmer then
on Friday with highs pushing into the mid/upper 70s with low 80s
possible over the extreme srn CWA with good MET/MAV agreement. That
will be approaching near record territory for both KOMA and KLNK.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Dry and pleasant conditions continue to be advertised by both the
GFS and ECM with above normal temperatures prevailing throughout
the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Showers and thunderstorms will generally be east of the the TAF
sites with VFR cigs early on. May be some patchy MVFR vsbys when
skies clear with fog then look for deteriorating conditions with
MVFR/IFR cigs Wednesday morning. Satellite pic show a large area
of low clouds and the RAP does bring this low level moisture
southward Wednesday morning. Included LLWS at KOMA early
on...then winds veer to southwest through northwest increasing to
10 to 15kts Wednesday.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
353 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing to our north across Kansas,
but it is uncertain whether this activity builds much south into
Oklahoma this morning. The ECMWF and GFS are most aggressive with
the activity building south, while the NAM, UKMET and recent HRRR
runs are all less aggressive. Will stick close to the blended pops
due to the uncertainty.
A few showers and storms may redevelop later this afternoon into
this evening near a weak surface boundary that will slip south
into the area, but coverage is likely to be limited with the main
upper support moving off to the east. If a storm can get going, it
will have the potential to be strong to marginally severe.
Will have to watch for the potential of some locally dense fog
late tonight in parts of northeast Oklahoma and possibly northwest
Arkansas to the north of the weak decaying frontal boundary.
Unseasonably warm and dry weather will then be the rule Thursday
into next week, with near record temperatures possible in some
places Friday through Monday. Another weak frontal boundary may
dip into the northern part of the forecast area about Sunday and
may knock temperatures down just a bit.
The ECMWF does show a stronger cold front moving into the area
late next week to knock temperatures back closer to normal.
However, the GFS continues the unseasonable warmth right through
next week, so we will just have to wait and see when we can get
some more typical early November weather around here.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 79 55 80 61 / 40 10 0 0
FSM 79 59 82 59 / 40 30 0 0
MLC 81 58 82 61 / 30 30 0 0
BVO 79 47 79 55 / 40 10 0 0
FYV 74 52 78 54 / 30 30 0 0
BYV 73 54 76 57 / 50 40 0 0
MKO 78 57 81 59 / 40 20 0 0
MIO 75 53 78 58 / 40 10 0 0
F10 80 58 81 60 / 40 20 0 0
HHW 83 58 83 59 / 30 40 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
256 AM MST Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure will result in dry and warm
conditions the remainder of the week, with well above normal
daytime temperatures for late October.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge building in from Mexico will lead to
drier conditions and temperatures near record levels the next few
days. The 00z KTWC sounding showed precipitable water levels
falling back below .9 inches with current CIRA layered PW totals
around .75 and falling. Surface dew points are down 4 to 6 degrees
over the past 24 hours, with HRRR forecast trends mixing those
values even lower (into the 30s) this afternoon. Thursday looks
the hottest with upper 90s at TIA. Current probability of 100
degrees at 6 percent.
Another system passing north of our area will push temperatures
down a few degrees over the weekend, but still well above average
for the end of October. There are some signs of a stronger
southern branch split off the eastern Pacific by the middle of
next week that may bring us more seasonable conditions, at least
temperature wise.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 27/12Z.
Mostly clear. Normal diurnal surface wind trends generally less
than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will bring a drying trend and above
normal daytime highs through the coming weekend. 20-foot winds
will be terrain driven generally less than 15 mph.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Meyer/Rasmussen
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1038 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and chilly day will be followed by a dose of cold rain
later tonight into Thursday with a wet snow accumulation possible
from the Northern Alleghenies into the Poconos. Chilly air will
hold its ground through the end of the week with some moderation
in temperatures expected over the weekend and into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar active well to our west with satellite showing thicker
clouds moving into cwa this morning. Cloud cover will continue to
lower and thicken today. HRRR runs show warm front band of showers
moving into northern half of area close to sunset. Timing not real
favorable for sleet/snow initially but wet bulbs suggest
temperatures will drop fast closest to ny border. This band of
precipitation will exit cwa before midnight with main band of
precipitation arriving after early morning hours. Marginal low level
temperatures near freezing and relatively warm surfaces given
time of year/first snow make for a difficult winter wx fcst with
snowfall somewhat dependent on elevation, rate and type of surface
(grass vs. pavement) with northern valleys likely having little to
no accumulation. The time of day (overnight- predawn) is most
favorable for early season accums and also most problematic in
terms of impact to the AM commute. Secondary roads over the
highest terrain could be slushy for a time with some slick spots.
Therefore, will highlight potential winter wx threats/risk in the
HWO for now and allow dayshift to assess possibility of an advy
given the early season aspect and timing impact. The 26/00z NCAR
ensemble and SPC SSEO both add confidence to winter ptypes with
the NCAR more in line with conceptual snow- mix-rain dominant
ptype progression while SSEO seems to favor more fzra/ice.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lingering wintry ptypes should transition to plain rain by later
Thursday morning in the northern tier. Elsewhere, a chilly rain
will expand south/east and continue through the afternoon before
tapering to showers from west to east into Thursday night.
Downstream blocking should allow northern stream energy to phase
with the lead trough and eventually result in a negatively tilted
trough over the Northeast U.S. by Friday morning. Models show the
formation of a triple point low deepening along the coast into the
Canadian Maritimes by Saturday morning.
A brisk northwest flow may afford some lake enhancement to shower
activity Thursday night and temps are cold enough to mention
rain/snow showers especially in the orographically favored areas
downwind of Lake Erie. Overall the trend should be toward drier
conditions into Friday. The wind gusts may end up being a little
stronger than forecast on the backside of the intensifying low.
High pressure briefly returns later Friday afternoon/evening
before shifting southeast Friday night into Saturday morning as
low pressure tracks across the Upper Great Lakes.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models and ensembles generally agree in bringing a weakening cold
front through the area on Saturday and stalling it out near the
PA/MD border. POPs are in the chance range mainly over the NW 1/2
with little in the way of moisture/QPF. The EC/GFS seem to be
trending toward the idea of a wave of low pressure developing to
the west along the wavy boundary and possibly bringing a better
chance for appreciable rainfall /0.25-0.50 inch/ to southern PA on
Sunday. Beyond Sunday, high pressure dominates the pattern
favoring dry weather.
A noticeable rebound in temperatures appears likely on Saturday
with an ensemble blend yielding highs 10-15 degrees warmer than
Friday. Temperatures may fall back on Sunday before moderating
again into early next week as southerly flow develops ahead of low
pressure in the Upper Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Today will be VFR ahead of a storm system that will be moving
into the lower great lakes late in the day. A warm front will lift
north into the area tonight into and Thursday bringing widespread
reduced conditions. The precipitation shouldn`t begin until after
06Z and begin from the northwest before enveloping the rest of the
state. So expect reduced conditions at BFD to begin around 06Z
Thursday and then IPT around 09Z, UNV, JST and AOO around 12Z.
MDT and LNS are still questionable if the precipitation gets that
far south, however give the moisture and the flow expecting at
least vicinity showers between 12Z to 15Z Thursday morning.
Precipitation should continue along the boundary through tomorrow
into Friday. So expect intermittent periods of MVFR to IFR cigs
and VSBY possible Thursday.
Outlook...
Fri...AM shrasn/low cigs possible W Mtns.
Sat...SHRA w/IFR CIGs possible N PM. Otherwise no sig wx.
Sun...SHRA w/MVFR cigs N and W. Breezy NW wind.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Ross
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ceru
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
651 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Strong to severe thunderstorms in the process of weakening this
morning across the eastern zones. Some storms have been severe
this evening with wind signatures on radar and up to quarter size
hail. Dual pol estimates show up to 2 inches of rain have fallen
near Larned/Pawnee county, La Crosse/Rush county, and eastern Ness
county. Further convective development is probable through
sunrise, in response to the LLJ, with activity being directed
toward Medicine Lodge. This evolution is shown nicely by the 00z
NAM and latest HRRR runs. Any showers/storms near Medicine Lodge
around sunrise will not last long, as much drier/more stable air
overspreads SW KS. North winds will be modestly gusty for a few
hours this morning behind the weak cold front, followed by a
stellar autumn afternoon. Diminishing NE winds under a clear sky,
with comfortable afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Another period of unseasonably warm and completely dry weather is
on the way for SW Kansas.
High pressure ridge axis rebuilds strongly onto the plains
Thursday. Full sunshine and modest southerly winds at 10-20 mph.
Lower 80s return for most locales.
Record or near-record heat is expected on Friday, as SW flow
develops aloft, and 850 mb temperatures climb back well into the
20s C. Mid to upper 80s will be widespread Friday afternoon.
SW winds will be strong and gusty Friday morning as the LLJ
weakens and mixes out, with winds diminishing during the afternoon
as a weak boundary slides south into SW Kansas. It is south of
this boundary, with the aid of downslope and compression, where
some locales in the SE zones should achieve the lower 90s. The
record high at Dodge City for October 28th is 85/1922, and will
likely be broken.
A very weak shortwave ripples through Saturday, accompanied by a
northerly wind shift and several degrees of "cooling" back to the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Not record territory, but still some 15
degrees above late October normals.
Sunday and Halloween...Another warming trend and more dry weather.
Expect lower 80s to be common Halloween afternoon with few clouds.
Have high confidence that trick or treating will be warm and dry
this Halloween.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Localized fog may be developing over areas that received rianfall
overnight, however the terminals are not likely to be so impacted.
Winds turn north this morning behind a slowly southeast exiting
cold front. Winds may gust into the teens (knots) in the afternoon
when mixing maximizes, and VFR conditions are expected at all
terminals for the duration of the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 48 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 79 45 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 79 47 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 80 46 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 76 47 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
P28 79 50 79 57 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Russell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1011 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.UPDATE...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Made minor adjustments to precipitation/weather for this
afternoon. Best ascent will shift east as mid-upper shortwave
trough departs, and latest water vapor shows drying/subsidence in
its wake moving into western Oklahoma. This will tend to limit
convective potential this afternoon. The primary impetus will be
residual outflow boundaries and weak cold front that will
progress southeast to near I-44 by peak heating. Modest
northwesterly mid level flow will contribute marginal deep layer
shear for storm organization and persistence. This, combined with
moderate instability, will support severe potential with any
storms that do form.
For the next couple of hours, some fog will be possible near the
cold front over northwest Oklahoma. As winds veer to
northwesterly and strengthen behind the front and as heating
commences, fog should diminish.
BRB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
AVIATION...
A small area of showers and storms will continue
east this morning, likely producing IFR to MVFR conditions
at PNC for an hour or so. RAP soundings suggest that elevated
storms are possible around the OKC TAF after 12-13Z.
Later this afternoon, additional storms may form during peak
heating as a frontal boundary approaches central Oklahoma.
After 22-23z all TAF sites should have VFR conditions with
an outside chance of light fog by 12z Thursday (OKC/OUN).
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
DISCUSSION...
So far this morning most of the showers and thunderstorms
have developed north of Oklahoma in Kansas and points
north and east. Most model and sounding data indicate enough
cooling will occur over the next 3 to 4 hours that at least
widely scattered showers and storms will form across north
central Oklahoma. After sunrise, elevated showers and storms
may also form across central Oklahoma including the OKC area.
It appears that instability will remain rather weak, but a few
storms may produce gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.
A cold front will move across part of Oklahoma today before
stalling along or near Interstate 44. By mid afternoon to early
evening, better storm chances will be across south central and
southeast Oklahoma.
After tonight/early Thursday, another period of very warm and dry
weather will return to the Southern Plains. On Friday, a very
breezy south wind and very warm temperatures will combine to
increase the risk of grass fires, especially across western
Oklahoma. A similar setup is possible Monday afternoon of next
week.
A weak frontal boundary will move into northern Oklahoma on
Saturday, otherwise no real cold air intrusions are expected
through at least the middle of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 78 59 81 60 / 40 10 0 0
Hobart OK 78 58 83 59 / 10 10 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 83 62 84 61 / 10 10 0 0
Gage OK 79 48 84 56 / 10 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 78 51 79 60 / 70 0 0 0
Durant OK 82 63 84 61 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
343 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
At 3 pm CDT, a cold front extended from surface low pressure in
eastern Saskatchewan, through northwest North Dakota. A warm
front extended across central North Dakota. Low clouds and fog
that formed along and east of the warm front earlier Wednesday
have been slowly eroding east at 5 to 10 mph through the day.
This pattern will continue this evening with the low clouds
retreating east across east central North Dakota with the warm
front. Meanwhile the cold front across the northwest will move
through the region after midnight. The HRRR model runs show
shallow cool northwest flow behind the cold front that will
likely support stratus and some possible fog back into the north.
Finally some fog is also possible south central where diurnal
cooling in the moist boundary layer will set up a fog scenario.
On Thursday with a complete airmass exchange in the wake of the
cold front expect partly to mostly sunny skies that will allow
good mixing. As a result mild temperatures are forecast well into
the low to mid 70s southwest to the 60s central.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
A generally progressive flow will continue through the extended
with several shortwave troughs flattening the broad h500 ridge
across the central and northern plains. This will bring several
chances for rain with a cooling trend from this weekend into next
week. The best chances for precipitation will be Saturday, and
again sunday night and monday. The flow aloft remains progressive
and the latest ECMWf, which earlier exhibited a closed low over
the northern plains Monday, now looks closer to the more open wave
and progressive GFS early next week. This may reduce the chances
for widespread rainfall on Monday.
The remainder of the forecast, Tuesday and Wednesday, looks dry
with seasonable temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
A combination of lifr/ifr cigs/vsbys at KMOT/KBIS/KJMS will improve
to vfr by 19z Wednesday at KMOT/KBIS. KJMS cigs look to slowly
improve to mvfr and remain there through 00z Thursday. An area of
ifr cigs/vsbys stretching from Swift Current to Moose Jaw and
Weyburn behind a subtle cold front in southern Saskatchewan, will
shift southeast into KMOT by 03z Thursday and continue through 14z
Thursday. It appears that this area of stratus will also move into
KJMS between 09z-16z Thursday. Elsewhere, vfr cigs/vsbys will
continue at KISN/KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
357 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Partial clearing and light winds are expected tonight as high
pressure briefly settles over North Country. This will lead to
chilly temperatures tonight, with lows generally in the 20s. The
next low pressure system will approach from the Great Lakes later
Thursday, with the primary low tracking into the St. Lawrence
Valley before a secondary low takes over closer to the New England
coast during Thursday night. After increasing cloudiness Thursday
morning, looking for precipitation to develop Thursday afternoon
and continue through Thursday night into Friday morning. After a
brief rain/snow mix, precipitation will be predominantly rain at
elevations below 2000 feet. Several inches of wet snow
accumulation is possible at the higher summits. Total rainfall
amounts generally a half inch to one inch, highest along the
eastern slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 138 PM EDT Wednesday...Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions
persist in NW flow, with lingering inversion near 5kft (per RAP
soundings) helping to trap moisture and stratocu layer. Sfc ridge
axis across sern Ontario will gradually shift ewd this evening
into tonight. Effect will be for winds to become light and
variable, and should see some partial clearing during after
sunset. Depending on amount of clearing and radiational cooling,
should be a chilly night. Certainly lows in the 20s for most
sections. If skies can become mostly clear, may see a few readings
in the teens for the nrn Adirondacks. Other than a lingering
flurry across n-central into nern VT late this aftn, expecting dry
conditions overnight.
Dry conditions will be short-lived as next wave of low pressure
approaches from the Great Lakes region on Thursday. Surface low
will shift across Lake Erie/nwrn PA late Thursday morning, with
increasing mid-upr clouds across our area. Leading surge of
850-700mb warm advection and associated precipitation arrives
around 18Z across s-central VT and into the Adirondacks of NY.
Precipitation will overspread the remainder of the North Country
late in the afternoon...early evening for far nern VT. In terms of
precipitation type, PBL will have a chance to warm out ahead of
the arriving precipitation, generally into the low 40s.
Anticipate some wet-bulb cooling with precip onset as column
saturates, allowing for wet snowflakes as low as 500ft elevation
mid- afternoon Thursday, but thereafter, looking at mainly a rain
event below 1500ft with continued WAA and strengthening S-SE
flow. Generally no snow accumulation at all below 1500 ft. May see
a slushy coating to an inch 1500-2500ft. Above 2500ft, temps will
hold on below freezing longer, and could see 4-8" across the
highest summits of nrn NY and central/nrn VT through Thursday
night. With a 50-kt sly low-level jet, there is a warm (above
freezing) layer that comes in above summit level, so may see some
periods of sleet as well into Thursday night. So, not expecting
any impact for population/roadways, but the highest summits could
see a moderate accumulation of wet snow based on current trends.
Highs on Thursday generally in the low-mid 40s, and near freezing
across the highest summits of VT and nrn NY.
One other issue will be moderate winds on the western slopes of
the Green Mtns, and across all of the higher terrain. SE winds
peak during Thursday evening, and should see 15-25 mph with a few
gusts 30-35mph possible along the immediate western slopes, as
primary surface low tracks into the St. Lawrence Valley. Later
Thursday night, gradient slackens as secondary low development
takes place across sern new England...and should see sfc winds
weaken. Stable low-level conditions will limit areal coverage of
gusty winds to the immediate wrn slopes. Winds at summit level
could reach 50mph consistent with model soundings closer to
4-5kft.
In terms of total QPF, looking for some precipitation enhancement
along the ern slopes of the Greens and into the ern slopes of the
Adirondacks given low-level sely (upslope) conditions. Total
rainfall amts ranging from 0.6" across the St. Lawrence and
Champlain Valleys, but locally around 1" in aforementioned upslope
flow areas, from Ludlow up to Bethel, and across portions of
Essex/Clinton Counties in NY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EDT Wednesday...The potential low pressure system
will be losing energy Friday morning as a shortwave vorticity
maxima pushed the center of the low south and east from the Saint
Lawrence to off the coast of New Hampshire. As this happens the
warm air will continue to surge north and generally rain will be
falling over the North Country except for a few higher elevation
sites over the Adirondacks and northern edge of the spine of the
Greens.
By mid day northwest flow develops and there will still be some
low level moisture at 925mb rh still exceeds 98% however moisture
in the snow growth zone will be minimal so any snow/flurries will
be confined to the areas with orographic lift. Friday should only
see 0.10-0.20" of qpf across the eastern Vermont zones mainly
falling as rain with a couple of hundredths of qpf across the rest
of the north country. Snow totals will really be continued to
elevations 2500-3000 feet and above and should only amount to an
inch or two of additional accumulation of heavy wet on Friday
adding to the 4-8 already from Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 357 PM EDT Wednesday...To start the weekend we will be
under marginal warm air advection on Saturday. A ridge of high
pressure will be slowly moving east in and 850 temps warm to +6C -
+8C. Clouds will be increasing and thickening as a weak northern
stream low tracks well to the north of the forecast area. With
boundary layer temps warm and little cold air to speak of it will
be just a typical late October rain event. QPF totals will be on
the lower side but most of the area should see some light rain
showers.
Behind that low, a eastern conus ridge builds in and leads to dry
air through the mid week before another low pressure system tracks
just north of the Great Lakes and brings an additional chance for
showers to start November.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 18z Thursday...Localized MVFR ceilings at SLK this
afternoon, but otherwise VFR at the TAF sites with cigs generally
3.5-5kft. HIR TRRN will remain obscd into tonight with prevailing
stratus/stratocu. Anticipate partial clearing and light winds
overnight, with VFR conditions. Approaching low pressure from the
Great Lakes will bring increasing clouds above 10kft Thursday
morning, lowering to near 8kft SLK/RUT toward 18Z Thursday. Most
of the precipitation should hold off until after 18Z Thursday, but
did include VCSH at RUT/SLK in line with 30-50percent chance of
toward the end of the TAF period.
Outlook 18z Thursday through Monday...An active pattern with
changeable flight conditions expected during this time period.
Mainly a rain event beginning Thursday aftn. However, initial
precipitation will be a rain/snow mix, especially at MPV/SLK, and
snowfall could result in some IFR conditions for several hours
Thursday aftn. A slushy accumulation possible at SLK (coating to
0.6"), but no snow accumulation expected at the other TAF
locations. Rain continues at the TAF sites Thursday night with
widespread MVFR, and intervals of IFR. SE wind gusts in excess of
25kts possible at KRUT 22Z Thu thru 04Z Fri. In addition...strong
low level jet of 50 knots around 5000 feet will produce areas of
turbulence and wind shear during this time period areawide. Low
pressure departs across the Gulf of Maine during the day Friday,
with winds shifting into the NW. Will see diminishing
precipitation chances from west to east through the day. Next
system with breezy southwest winds arrives late Saturday into
Sunday with additional precip and potential impacts to aviation.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Banacos/Taber
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
548 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and warm conditions will be the rule through early next week.
A weak front, with limited moisture, will traverse the forecast
area late Thursday/early Friday, with fair and warming conditions
expected Friday afternoon into the weekend. A weak dry front
moving through late Sunday/early Monday will reinforce continued
dry and warm conditions early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from the northeast
through tonight. The models suggest increasing high clouds
overnight. Satellite trends support high thin cloudiness. As the
ridge shifts eastward low-level flow will become southeasterly
into the forecast area overnight. The moisture combined with
nocturnal cooling may result in stratus or fog during the early
morning hours. However, based on crossover temperatures and upper-
level moisture limiting net radiational cooling plus low sref
probabilities expect fog will be limited. We forecasted just
patchy fog for now. Mos guidance accepted so expect warmer
readings than last night with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower
50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge over the Rockies, with upper troughiness over the E
CONUS. Surface high axis over the area weakens and pulls east
tonight into early Thursday ahead of an approaching weak surface
boundary. A weak surface boundary is expected to slowly move
through the forecast area late Thursday into Friday. Best upper
dynamics to remain to our north, with limited moisture for the
system to work with. Latest model guidance confirming limited
moisture. A blend of model guidance suggests slight chance POPS
at best, favored towards the N/NE forecast area mainly late
Thu/Thu night. High pressure will build in from the west later on
Friday into Friday night. Temperatures will be several degrees
above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Behind the weak front/trough, surface high pressure will shift
into the region late Friday into the weekend. Upper trough over
the E CONUS will lift to the north some Fri thru Sun, with upper
ridge center shifting east along the Gulf coast, providing a
continued dry WNW to NW flow aloft for our area. Models continue
to indicate a dry front moving through the area late Sunday/early
Monday. High pressure center to build into the eastern seaboard,
and also indicate a building upper ridge over the SE CONUS
Mon/Tue, appearing to ensure dry conditions, with above normal
temperatures, through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Patchy areas of stratus and fog are possible early Thursday
morning.
Surface high pressure ridging into the Carolinas has created a
tight dewpoint gradient across the forecast area. Dewpoints are in
the mid to upper 30s in the northern Midlands to 50 degrees in
the CSRA. Tonight, models indicate shallow moisture advection in
SE flow, particularly in the southern portion of SC and into the
CSRA. Here, low stratus is most likely to cause MVFR/IFR restrictions.
However guidance has been somewhat consistent that fog will be a
greater threat than low clouds.
High clouds will move into the region overnight from the SW,
helping to insulate the area. With crossover temperatures around
40 degrees at CAE/CUB, it may be too dry for fog in the northern
portion of the forecast area. AGS and OGB are more likely to have
visibility restrictions with crossover temperatures in the upper
40s. However the HRRR has suggested patchy areas of fog in
inconsistent locations. MVFR/IFR fog is more likely at AGS and
OGB but cannot rule out fog at other TAF sites with present
uncertainty.
Thursday morning, patchy areas of fog/stratus will dissipate by
15z with light southerly wind picking up. Winds will become
southwesterly near the end of the period as the cold front
approaches from the north.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Thursday and
Thursday night as a weak cold front crosses the region.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
611 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching weather system will bring a cold rain later
tonight into Thursday with a wet snow accumulation possible from
the Northern Alleghenies into the Poconos. Chilly air will hold
its ground through the end of the work week with some moderation
in temperatures expected for Saturday before a cool down again on
Sunday with overcast skies and a chance of showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Visible and obs showing cloud deck over western PA moving rapidly
eastward with rain not too far behind. HRRR runs consistently shows
precipitation spreading into NW zones just before sunset. Precip
initially starts as cold rain but wet bulb and boundary soundings
show a quick transition to a mix or even period of snow for
northern half of state this evening and overnight. Any snow
accumulations expected to be light with surface temperatures a
couple degrees above freezing and precipitation rates slow enough
to prevent significant accumulations...but an inch or so of snow
accumulation closest to nys border is likely. Precipitation will
spread across rest of CWA overnight. South of I-80 temperatures
will be warm enough to remain all rain but it will be close around
I-80 where some mixing is possible for a time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Milder air will change any wintry precip to plain rain early on
Thursday for the northern tier. Elsewhere look for a cold rain in
the morning with precipitation decreasing west to east in the
early afternoon. Temperatures will not rise much with most
locations seeing highs in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Downstream blocking should allow northern stream energy to phase
with the lead trough and eventually result in a negatively tilted
trough over the Northeast U.S. by Friday morning. Models show the
formation of a triple point low deepening along the coast into the
Canadian Maritimes by Saturday morning.
A brisk northwest flow may afford some lake enhancement to shower
activity Thursday night and temps are cold enough to mention
rain/snow showers especially in the orographically favored areas
downwind of Lake Erie. Overall the trend should be toward drier
conditions into Friday. The wind gusts may end up being a little
stronger than forecast on the backside of the intensifying low.
High pressure briefly returns later Friday afternoon/evening
before shifting southeast Friday night into Saturday morning as
low pressure tracks across the Upper Great Lakes.
Models and ensembles generally agree in bringing a weakening cold
front through the area on Saturday and stalling it out near the
PA/MD border. POPs are in the chance range mainly over the NW 1/2
with little in the way of moisture/QPF. The EC/GFS seem to be
trending toward the idea of a wave of low pressure developing to
the west along the wavy boundary and possibly bringing a better
chance for appreciable rainfall /0.25-0.50 inch/ to southern PA on
Sunday. Beyond Sunday, high pressure dominates the pattern
favoring dry weather.
A noticeable rebound in temperatures appears likely on Saturday
with an ensemble blend yielding highs 10-15 degrees warmer than
Friday. Temperatures may fall back on Sunday before moderating
again into early next week as southerly flow develops ahead of low
pressure in the Upper Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue into the evening before ceilings
lower ahead of an approaching warm front and storm system.
Expect reduced conditions at BFD to begin around 06Z Thursday
spreading east to IPT by around 09Z. UNV, JST and AOO will see
lowering conditions between about 09-12Z with MDT and LNS
deteriorating around or shortly after sunrise.
Precipitation and sub VFR conditions will should continue along
the boundary through tomorrow into Friday.
Outlook...
Fri...AM shrasn/low cigs possible W Mtns.
Sat...SHRA w/IFR CIGs possible N PM. Otherwise no sig wx.
Sun...SHRA w/MVFR cigs N and W. Breezy NW wind.
Mon...No Sig Wx
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...Gartner/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Ross/La Corte
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
The forecast area was between systems at 19Z. Low pressure over
Saskatchewan, high pressure over Ontario, and low pressure over
Iowa. This resulted in the easterly flow persisting along with
plenty of cloud cover. The rain that had been affecting the western
and southern edges of the region this morning and early afternoon,
has diminished. Additional rain is falling farther north and covers
the Twin Ports, along the south shore of Lake Superior, and is now
beginning to affect the north shore. This rain was being helped
along by differential vorticity advection in the 700-400mb layer,
the passing of an upper level trof and a coupled jet structure.
The upper trof slowly moves eastward tonight and the coupled jet
structure diminishes. The aforementioned surface systems move
gradually eastward as well. Another upper level short wave trof/
vorticity maxima, moves into Ontario late tonight. Just enough
upward vertical motion clips the Arrowhead to generate a chance of
showers. Forecast soundings from short term hires models and
deterministic models, no longer indicate the potential for snow and
have removed.
The upper level short wave/vorticity max are shoved eastward on
Thursday, replaced by upper level ridging. Weak high pressure drifts
over the area in the late morning and is east of the area by late
afternoon. A warm air advection pattern arrives in the late morning
and pushes eastward through the day. Unfortunately, there will be
plenty of clouds around preventing a good warmup.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Main concerns for the long term are precipitation chances Friday
through Saturday morning and again Sunday night through early
Tuesday morning.
A longwave ridge in place over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
at the start of the period will flatten into a quasi-zonal pattern
by sunrise Friday morning. A shortwave trough will eject east across
the Rockies Thursday night and across the region Friday. A surface
low will push eastward out of North Dakota and the southern Canadian
Prairies ahead of the upper trough. With a brief period of return
flow ahead of the system, moisture will be limited. Cloud cover will
increase ahead and north of the low track bringing a chance of rain
across my north. All deterministic guidance has taken a more
northern track with this system than this time yesterday, so
confidence is increasing with the placement of POPs along my
northern zones. With relatively warm temperatures, think rain will
be the main p-type.
The trough and surface low will shift east of the area Saturday
morning. With cyclonic flow behind the departing shortwave and
modest cold air advection, think showers will linger over my eastern
zones until early Saturday. Winds will back northwesterly over
western Lake Superior as well, which should support a slight chance
of lake effect showers over favored areas of Bayfield, Ashland, and
Iron Counties. Quasi-zonal flow returns in response to the departing
trough, while another subtle ripple in the flow pushes east across
the Central Plains and into southern Minnesota during the day.
Like the consensus keeping POPs with that feature south of my CWA
and lowered POPs Saturday night and Sunday.
Longwave trough over the western CONUS is expected to kick eastward
Sunday night and Monday. While deterministic solutions differ in
strength and trajectory of surface reflection, the fact that the
medium-range guidance continues to move this trough into the area
early next week increases confidence. GFS is much stronger with the
evolution of the trough and produces a strong surface low over
northern Ontario Monday night. ECMWF and GEM are weaker with the
upper trough and surface low, partially due to phasing issues with a
second trough farther upstream over the Canadian Rockies. At this
point, prefer the non-GFS consensus which does bring a prolonged
precip event into the Northland Sunday night continuing through late
Monday night. Confidence in temperature at that time range is merely
average, especially given diverse model solutions. Have a rain/snow
mix for a few locales at the beginning of the precipitation and
again Monday night. There is certainly a potential for accumulating
snow with this system, but low confidence in p-type warrants leaning
toward all rain with occasional rain/snow.
Northwest flow returns Tuesday into early Wednesday with temperatures
likely cooling heading into the midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Surface low pressure over eastern Iowa was supporting light rain
across much of Wisconsin and portions of northeast Minnesota this
afternoon. Expect the rain to gradually shift eastward and
diminish as the low moves toward southern Lake Michigan by early
evening. Mainly MVFR ceilings can be expected for the afternoon,
except over far northern Minnesota where VFR ceilings should
continue for several more hours. Ceilings will gradually lower
tonight with all sites seeing a period of IFR ceilings overnight.
Model output statistics and vertical profiles from the NAM and RAP
hint at the possibility of LIFR ceilings developing overnight, but
elected to keep SCT group for the lower ceiling potential for now.
A second area of low pressure will drop southeast out of
Saskatchewan overnight, which could result in another round of
showers overnight. Added VCSH mentions overnight with this
package, as confidence and timing with additional precipitation is
lower than average. Ceilings will gradually raise back into low-
end MVFR Thursday morning. Confidence in this forecast is above
average through 26.02Z and average thereafter.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 37 47 41 58 / 10 0 10 10
INL 38 49 42 54 / 10 10 10 30
BRD 37 51 44 62 / 10 10 0 0
HYR 34 48 41 62 / 20 0 0 10
ASX 37 48 41 60 / 30 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ142>147.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140-141.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-
148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
333 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SHORT TERM.../This evening through Thursday/
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
The main forecast concern is the low stratus deck hanging
around through tomorrow morning. Inversion continues to strengthen
this evening into the overnight hours trapping the low stratus deck.
Little evidence suggests the cloud deck to erode this evening and
have increased cloud cover through 12z Thursday for the majority of
the forecast area. The inversion is probably the weakest in the
southwest, but then the this area likely see fog develop with the
light winds and low RH values. Have patchy fog past 08z Thursday
over the western portions of CWA in the event there are some breaks
in the cloud deck. The HRRR as well as a the majority of the other
hires models continue the stratus through at least 09-12z Thursday
before they suggest some holes develop in the stratus. This makes
temperatures another concern tonight. If any clearing occurs,
especially over the west in Nish Valley and across the north,
minimum temperatures likely will be off by several degrees. However,
even if breaks do occur, it`s likely to fill back in fairly quickly
and thus the potential exist for fluctuating temperatures throughout
the night.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Wednesday/
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
High pressure ridge will be stretched over central Iowa mid
Thursday morning then will move slowly east during the day. Warm
advection will be ongoing to the west of the high pressure however
a steep inversion setting up between 900-850 mb and will limit
temperature recovery. Also the steep inversion combined with the
light flow directly under the high pressure may slow the
erosion/departure of stratus over the east to northeast portion of
the area. Warm advection will increase Thursday night into Friday
as the pressure gradient increases with low pressure moving into
the Northern Plains.
The thermal ridge will pass over Iowa on Friday. A big inversion
remains aloft to start the day though should be able to mix
through a good portion of it for highs to reach the mid to upper
70s at most locations. Model profiles look too bullish on
potential high level cloudiness during the afternoon therefore
should have an abundance of sun throughout the day. A boundary
will sag into Iowa Friday night then move very slowly south during
the day Saturday as it becomes nearly parallel to the upper zonal
flow. Moisture will be quite limited along the boundary with no
precipitation expected central and south Saturday. Low chances for
precipitation north though profiles will remain dry below 700 mb
with anything that occurs remaining light. Another strong short
wave trough moving the the flow will arrive late Monday into
Monday night with the ECMWF remaining around 9 hrs slower than the
deterministic GFS and ensembles. The primary impact of the timing
will be high temperatures on Monday with the thermal ridge
becoming reestablished and potential remaining over Iowa much of
the day. Precipitation chances should be mainly relegated north of
Iowa and generally along and north of sfc low pressure that will
pass north of the state as well. High pressure will follow for
Tuesday. Precipitation chances will increase Tuesday night into
Wednesday as warm advection develops in the wake of the departing
high.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon/
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
LIFR/IFR ceilings look to continue throughout the afternoon into
tonight. Confidence is high that this low stratus deck will
linger into Thursday morning, but low confidence with the flight
category. Likely to remain b/t 500-1000 feet at MCW/FOD/ALO for
much of the TAF period with DSM/OTM on the southern fringe of this
IFR stratus. Kept MVFR stratus through tomorrow morning as much of
the low level RH remains trapped under the inversion tonight.
Visibility has improved with the drizzle dissipating and only
looks to impact OTM through the early afternoon.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Podrazik
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...Podrazik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
340 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Near and short term convective trends are the biggest challenge
with regards to the forecast. Thereafter, dry and unseasonably
warm conditions are expected through the remainder of the current
work week and into the weekend. Low rain chances return to the
region next week with a continuation of above average
temperatures.
Regional radar imagery shows convection across East Central
Oklahoma this afternoon. The convection is associated with lift
along a slow moving cold front and a shortwave trough that were
both sliding towards the south and east. Hi-resolution model
guidance has waffled a bit with the 19 UTC HRRR less aggressive
than previous runs. The latest TTU WRF has also shown a lower
areal coverage of convection. That being said, mesoanalysis
indicates that the airmass ahead of the cluster of storms
remains unstable and it`s possible that a few more clusters of
storms could develop across southeast OK and adjacent portions of
North TX. As a result, I`ll maintain highest PoPs across far
northeastern zones and I have tapered them downward towards the
south and west. I went ahead and pulled PoPs from Central TX for
tonight as it appears that the threat for nocturnal convection
should be largely diminished as the shortwave trough exits to the
east and southeast and the cold front remains to the north in
Oklahoma. Overall, the threat for widespread severe weather across
North TX appears LOW at this time as deep layer shear and
instability are marginal. There will be a threat for some strong
wind gusts and/or near-severe hail, but this threat should be
largely mitigated as the best shear and cooler air aloft (thus
instability) remain further to the north and east. Most activity
should diminish later tonight.
The next concern will be during the overnight and early Thursday
morning time periods where a potential for patchy fog exists. The
two main areas for patchy fog will be along the Red River and
across Central TX. The threat for patchy fog along the Red River
is a bit more conditional and dependent on the coverage of storms.
Right now, I`ll mention patchy fog along our northern tier of
counties where the best rain chances are forecast. Assuming rain
falls and skies clear, the light winds should support a threat for
patchy fog. If the coverage of storms is much smaller, the threat
for patchy fog may be a little overstated in the current forecast.
Farther to the south and east, clear skies and light winds should
foster a greater potential for the development of some patchy fog.
A warming trend can be expected through the weekend as an H5
ridge centers itself across the Big Country and eventually towards the
Red River. Friday appears breezy and warm as southwest winds
should help temperatures to rise well above normal values. Most
areas should experience afternoon high temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s. A similar story is expected from Saturday through
Monday. There may be some passing high clouds as a weak shortwave
trough travels around the northern periphery of the H5 ridge as
well as the diurnal build up of afternoon cumulus.
Rain chances return to the forecast next week as low level
moisture streams northward in response to lee-side cyclogenesis.
I`ve not made too many drastic changes to the long term portion of
the forecast, but low rain chances for a majority of North and
Central TX appear reasonable. With most of the strong synoptic
forcing to the north, it`s likely that this convection will be
diurnal in nature.
24-Bain
&&
.AVIATION...
The main concern with the 18Z TAF package is the potential for
thunderstorms this evening. As a shortwave moves across the
Central Plains, thunderstorms across the Northern Oklahoma are
expected to build southward toward North Texas. At this time, it
looks like this activity should approach the Red River 22-23z and
affect the Metroplex between 01z and 04Z. Thus have placed a VCTS
in the Metroplex TAFs for the time period. There may be a few
hours of northerly winds if this thunderstorm complex moves
through, but given the uncertainty, have not indicated this
wind shift in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail.
At Waco: Any activity that moves into North Texas should weaken
as it moves south of the I-20 corridor. Although we cannot
completely rule out the possibility of a TSRA, have only
indicated VCSH in Waco TAF for the 05-09z period. Expect south
winds around 10 knots to generally prevail.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 86 64 87 65 / 30 5 5 0 0
Waco 62 86 58 87 60 / 10 5 5 0 0
Paris 58 83 60 85 61 / 50 5 5 0 5
Denton 61 84 60 86 62 / 30 5 5 0 0
McKinney 60 84 61 85 63 / 40 5 5 0 0
Dallas 63 86 64 87 65 / 30 5 5 0 0
Terrell 62 84 60 87 62 / 30 5 5 0 0
Corsicana 62 85 60 87 62 / 10 5 5 0 0
Temple 62 85 59 87 60 / 10 5 5 0 0
Mineral Wells 61 86 60 87 60 / 20 5 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
58/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
703 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
Winds have died down more than was expected this evening, and
have lowered the forecast values a bit. We should see an increase
late tonight (especially outside of deep valleys) as a cold front
approaches and the pressure gradient tightens.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 445 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
19z sfc analysis shows a low pressure system moving into the upper
midwest with a cold front approaching Kentucky. A warm front has
developed and lifted northeast of the CWA placing eastern
Kentucky in the warm sector of this approaching low. Plenty of
sunshine ahead of this front today sent temperatures into the mid
and upper 70s while dewpoints stayed up better than past
afternoons - only into the mid and upper 40s. Winds, meanwhile,
picked up from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph over the western
parts of the area with some gusts to 20 mph or so while they
remained a notch lighter over the eastern parts of the area.
The models are in pretty good agreement aloft through the short
term portion of the forecast as they all depict a weakening
trough moving through the Great Lakes. A band of energy will
extend south from this and traipse into and across eastern
Kentucky overnight and into Thursday morning. Low heights will
stick around through Thursday night but the southwest ridge looks
to build over southwest Texas and northeast into our area by the
end of the week. Given the general model agreement with this
pattern through Friday morning have favored the blended solution
with special attention to the higher resolution HRRR and NAM12
guidance.
Sensible weather will feature a mostly dry cold front pressing
through central and eastern Kentucky Thursday morning with at best
some scattered showers. Still cannot rule out a stray
thunderstorm with this, but for consistency sake have left them
out of the forecast - especially given the low PoPs for this
desiccating frontal passage into our dry area of late. The
shower/sprinkle chances pass by early afternoon as the front moves
on east Thursday with a change in the wind direction, a few gusts
to 25 mph from the west and cooler/drier air inbound. Accordingly,
expect temperatures to bottom out in the low to mid 40s most
places Friday morning along with some patchy valley fog. Given
that this is likely another front that will not bring significant
rain to the area we are looking to get even drier through the
weekend and into next week raising fire weather concerns as
antecedent conditions only get drier going forward.
Started with the CONSShort/ShortBlend for the bulk of the grids
with adjustments to the temps tonight and to a lesser extent on
Thursday night based on terrain distinctions. As for PoPs - did
drop them down a bit on Thursday - more toward the previous
forecast given the drying front - ending up a notch below MOS
guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
A upper level wave will be exiting to the east on Friday, as a
surface high progresses east into the region. In the wake of this
wave strong upper level ridging will build into the region. At the
surface high pressure will build into the Carolinas and warm air
advection will kick in on the backside. This ridging remains in
place until we move toward Sunday, as a northern stream shortwave
briefly suppresses the ridge. Then ridging quickly builds east
with strong heights building all the way into the Great Lakes.
Another northern stream wave will pass into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes by Monday night. A cold front will also progress east,
but will become weak by the time it makes it east.
Impacts for the period will be the above normal temps and dry
weather for most of the period. The upper level wave on Sunday
afternoon could bring a slight chance of a showers in the far
east. However would be hesitant to go much more than slight given
the dry antecedent conditions, lack of jet support, and lack of
multiple model support. Before this ahead of this wave on Saturday
will be a gusty day wind wise and could be something that needs to
be watched fire weather wise. Otherwise the period will be met
with well above normal temps, as we see highs in the mid 70s to
even around 80 for most of the period. This will put several days
especially Saturday and Tuesday into near to record highs. Matter
of fact the record high for the month of November is only 82
degrees at Jackson and London and these could also be in jeopardy.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
VFR conditions will be experienced through the period. Southwest
winds of between 5 and 10 knots will continue into early evening.
Look for high and mid level clouds to begin to thicken late in
the period. Some low level wind shear may develop ahead of an
approaching cold front late this evening as winds die off at the
TAF sites have included that in the TAFs. For Thursday, a mostly
dry cold front will pass through with winds picking up to near 15
kts by early afternoon along with gusts to 20-25 kts. Do not
foresee cigs below VFR during this or any real impact from
convection.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF/KAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
253 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...
A very stout upper level high pressure ridge jutting northward into
the southwest deserts and southern Rockies this afternoon will
become our dominant weather feature by Thursday as it leans a little
to the east. This ridge in the h500 to h200 millibar layer is
unusually strong for this time of year with return rates approaching
30 years. In the short term overnight, a weak surface ridge will
dominate with modest low level moisture and light winds. Foreseeable
for patchy fog early Thursday favoring our southern and western
areas, as supported by both RAP and to some extent NAM12 and HRRR
short term solutions. Not clear if this will have potential for hard
visibility drops, as indicated by the RAP13, so may need some
clarification later. Tonight will generally be a little cooler;
drier air in the northwest should allow decent cooling below
guidance numbers that area especially. But by late Thursday morning
and for the remainder of the day, we will see considerable sun,
light winds, and warming at least 5 degrees and approaching 10
degrees above normal for some locations. RMcQueen
.LONG TERM...
No big changes to the extended this iteration with warm and dry
conditions the main theme through at least early next week. The
culprit supplying the late October warmth (and dry conditions) is an
impressive upper ridge that will build squarely over the region
late week before flattening this weekend and then shifting over
the Deep South next week. Temperatures are expected to peak this
weekend when highs will be in the middle to upper 80s at most
locales. Gradually lowering heights/thicknesses should allow
temperatures to edge downward early next week, though they will
likely still reside on the warm side of average. Eventually
increasing low-level moisture and some form of an upper level
disturbance approaching from the west may supply a chance of rain
to the region by next Wednesday or Thursday, though details remain
sketchy at this point.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
05/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
221 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of rain with the
current upper system and cold front affecting the region. Any risk
of strong or severe storms. Finally a temperature forecast before
and then after the front moves into Ar.
Did see early morning fog over parts of AR, especially central
locations, which dissipated an hour or two after sunset. Not
expecting much tonight with more mixing in the atmosphere. The
upper shortwave system is currently moving into the region, and
developing isolated to scattered convection. The cold front is
located in eastern OK to western MO, while the upper system has
made progress to western AR to central MO. Overall trend has be
weakening as the convection moves southeast. The convection will
gradually move southeast later this afternoon to more in the
evening. Only a marginal risk of strong to severe storms remains
in the forecast, mainly over OK. Temperatures were running in the
70s in most locals, while some around 80 were seen in the south.
Late morning update will again fine tune convection chances and
temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday Night
Will start the forecast with clouds and a low chance of convection
over northwest to northern AR. This gradually transitions to
central AR as the upper system moves through the region tonight.
Models as consistent with this trend, while HRRR holds some
weakening convection moving through the state tonight, then ending
by Thursday morning. As mentioned, the strong storm risk remains
low, and mainly in far western AR to OK. Moisture is limited over
AR and rain amounts are forecast to be only a few hundreds to a
few tenths. Thursday to Friday, surface and upper high pressure
systems again build in over the region, and bring dry weather and
warming temperatures. Lows will be in the 50s to 60s. While highs
in the 70s to mainly 80s. A few record temperatures will be seen
to the end of the week, with highs running 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, especially over central to southern AR.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday Night
Overall the sensible weather looks to be rather benign through
the extended period with virtually no chance of rain until the
very end. While there are some discrepancies between the models,
especially later in the period, these differences would not have a
meaningful impact on the overall pattern. As such, a blend of
solutions will be used this afternoon.
The period initiates with a fairly active northern branch but over
the southern plains and southeast conus, upper level ridging will
largely dominate. A weak system passing to the north of the state
will knock the ridging down briefly Saturday night and early Sunday
before reestablishing itself.
Another boundary ties to drop down on Tuesday with little impact
expected with a more significant system possible as the period
concludes. Will leave the forecast dry for now and take a wait and
see approach for next week.
Southerly flow will keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal
into early next week. Temperatures cool off somewhat after but will
still remain above normal through the entire period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 57 78 55 81 / 20 0 0 0
Camden AR 55 82 56 84 / 10 0 0 0
Harrison AR 55 75 56 79 / 30 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 57 81 57 81 / 20 10 0 0
Little Rock AR 57 81 57 82 / 20 0 0 0
Monticello AR 56 83 58 84 / 10 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 57 80 56 80 / 30 10 0 0
Mountain Home AR 55 76 55 80 / 30 0 10 0
Newport AR 57 79 55 82 / 20 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 56 81 57 83 / 10 0 0 0
Russellville AR 56 81 57 82 / 30 0 0 0
Searcy AR 56 80 56 82 / 20 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 56 81 57 83 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...59 / Long Term...56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
408 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 407 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level shortwave
over the wrn Great Lakes. The heaviest pcpn associated strong 800-
600 mb fgen was sliding to the south from ne WI into cntrl lower MI.
An area of rain with 700-300 qvector conv associated with the shrtwv
had spread across wrn and srn Upper Michigan but was slow in moving
into the drier airmass to the north and east. Over the southeast,
bands of lake effect rain have moved off of Lake Michigan
northwestard from ESC into sw Marquette county.
Tonight, although the models have trended slower and weaker with the
pcpn advancing into the region, expect at least some light pcpn over
most of the cwa with the highest pops/amounts remaining over the
south and only chance pops over the Keweenaw. NAM/GFS wet-bulb zero
heights suggest that the pcpn will change to or mix with snow over
the inland/higher terrain over the west half through the interior
east. Minor snow accumulations of less than a half inch may be
possible but with the relatively warm ground, would mainly be on
grassy surfaces.
Thursday, With the mid-level trough axis beginning to moving off to
the east, any lingering light rain/snow showers over the east half
in the morning will end by afternoon as ridging and q-vector
div/subsidence build in from the west. Additional light lake effect
rain may also linger from near ESC-MNM with ENE flow and 850 mb
temps near -3C. Clouds may linger through day though due to a lack
of good mixing and persistent low-level moisture trapped beneath the
strengthening subsidence inversion.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
Made no significant changes to blended initialization as blends
handled low impact weather satisfactorily and accounted for
uncertainty in the extended. Only hazards of interest (with any
level of confidence) are potential for breezy southerly winds Fri
and gusty southerly winds on Monday, both of which the blends
represent well given the uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 133 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
VFR cigs at CMX and SAW will become MVFR this afternoon as rain with
a low pressure system gradually arrives from Wisconsin. Overall,
expect MVFR conditions to continue into tonight mainly from cigs.
However, IFR conditions are also expected /in both cigs and vsby/ at
times tonight at SAW where the greatest chance of precipitation will
prevail. Any IFR conditions should improve to MVFR Thursday morning
as weak upslope flow diminishes.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 407 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016
SE winds to 30 knots will diminish late tonight into Thu as a trough
crosses the area. An approaching low pressure system on Fri will
allow south winds to increase to 20-30 kts, strongest on eastern Lk
Superior where gale gusts could be possible late on Fri. The low is
expected to cross over or near Lake Superior Fri night, shifting the
winds to NW to 20-30 knots late Fri night into Saturday. Gale gusts
could again occur over north central and eastern sections through
Sat morning. Winds will gradually diminish to under 20 knots through
the day Sunday. Winds may increase to 30 knots again Monday ahead of
the next low.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
350 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.DISCUSSION...
We are sporting a decent cu field over the I-30 corridor and some
cirrus and a weak diffuse boundary lies just North of the Red
river across Mc Curtain co. Thunderstorms a bit farther N stretch
across SE OK and will be affecting our cwa into the evening.
Mainly along I-30 corridor both N and S and possibly toward I-20
before diminishing. Just really tough to see this far out. The
HRRR caught this approach scenario early and has been more or less
consist since. And now with some light QPF into S AR after
midnight and before daybreak along the outflow. We may also see
some light fog over our southern tier of counties and parishes.
The SPC marginal has been shifted Westward and out of our area.
Otherwise nothing much to write home about under the big warm dry ridge
into next week. The is still QPF in the Superblend out of the Euro
about the middle of next week. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 58 83 59 85 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 57 84 58 86 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 56 82 54 83 / 30 10 0 0
TXK 58 82 58 84 / 30 10 0 0
ELD 54 81 55 84 / 20 10 0 0
TYR 60 83 61 85 / 30 10 0 0
GGG 58 83 59 85 / 30 10 0 0
LFK 57 84 60 86 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
24