Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/25/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
955 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Cloud shield on leading edge of the upper air system advancing
acrs Utah this evening now nearing the Front Range according IR
satellite imagery. Precip associated with this cloud cover still
well back in Utah and mainly in the from of rain. Have adjusted
sky coverage to speed up its arrival east of the mtns in the next
few hours. Latest HRRR and RAP indicate spotty light QPF over and
east of the Front Range between 09-15z/Tue. Amts appear very
light...esply on the plains as the boundary layer should remain
quite dry with downslope flow off the foothills. Should see
gradual clearing through the day as is already indicated in the
fcst grids. Otherwise few changes necessary to the ongoing
forecast for tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Forecast on track with the band of showers now across Utah slated
to move across western Colorado tonight with whatever is left of
it coming over eastern Colorado in the morning. Pretty good chance
of mountain locations getting a little rain and snow as the band
should stay together until it hits the east slopes. Not much cold
advection so the snow level should be around 10 thousand feet, and
at pass elevations roads should be wet for the most part.
Expecting mainly virga east of the Front Range, but enough
organization to keep some low PoPs in the morning. For the
afternoon a shallow layer of moisture with just slight instability
over the mountains. I dropped the PoPs a bit east of the mountains
for the afternoon as the showers trying to move over the mountains
should be weaker. Forecast temps look good with just a little
cooling, as much due to cloud cover as anything else.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Light snow and rain showers in the mountains will linger into the
early hours on Wednesday. Snow levels could get down to 10,000 ft
overnight but amounts will be very light. As the upper trough
moves out some increased winds over the NE corner will be possible
but no showers.
Behind this feature strong ridging will move in bringing continued
dry and above average temperatures to the region. Highs through
Friday will be in the 70s on the plains with Thursday being the
warmest with a possible high temp close to 80. Lows will be in the
40s. Both the GFS and EC have the trough axis over the NW with a
trailing branch over Western portions of the state. This could
bring a slight chance of precipitation to the mountains but with
minimal QG and CAPE confidence is low on little if any
accumulation with no precip expected on the plains. This feature
will make its way out by late Saturday with another ridge settling
in by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 945 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
VFR conditions at Denver area terminals next 24 hours.
Although should see cloud ceilings lowering after midnight to
possibly as low as 8000 ft agl with a weak upper air disturbance
passing over the area. Could see a few light rain showers in and
around the Denver metro area towards morning...but with no
restrictions to visibility as the air near the ground should
remain quite dry. Southerly winds of 7-14 kts across the metro
area at this time should gradually swift clockwise to a west-
southwest component after 09z with isolated showers moving down of
the foothills. After the passage of these showers around 14-15z...
should see winds briefly return to a southerly direction at
6-12kts...before gradually turning to a west-northwest direction
around midday behind the passing weather disturbance. Should also
see a steady reduction in cloud cover through the afternoon.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Baker
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Baker
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1044 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the forecast area tonight with a
reinforcing shot of cool air through Midweek. There is a slight
chance of showers late in the week associated with a fast moving
system forecast to move through the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A dry air mass remains across the forecast area with just some
high thin clouds ahead of the shortwave trough in the southern
stream over east Texas. The cold front in the north part of the
forecast area at 1000 pm will push south of the area around
200 am. The front will move through the region dry. Increased
mixing over the relatively warm lakes will result in breezy
conditions. The HRRR suggested wind close but just below lake
wind advisory criteria especially on Lake Marion. Mixing in the
boundary layer again tonight will limit net radiational cooling.
Expect overnight lows similar to last night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A broad upper ridge will build over the Southeast. High pressure
will ridge into the forecast area from the north at the surface. A
cool and dry air mass will build into the region. Slightly below
normal high temperatures are forecast, in the lower to middle 70s.
Overnight lows in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper-ridge over the center of the country will promote
northwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states through
midweek. Surface high pressure will ridge into the area from the
north Wednesday before shifting offshore Thursday. A surface low
over the Great Lakes region early Thursday morning will shift
northeastward toward New England. This system will bring a weak
cold front across the area Thursday night/early Friday. Moisture
will be limited throughout the period, so continued with a dry
forecast except during the Thursday/Friday time frame maintained a
slight chance. More dry high pressure will build in from the west
late Friday into Saturday, with another dry cold front moving into
the area Saturday night/Sunday. More high pressure will build in
from the north Monday. Seasonable or above normal temperatures are
forecast for much of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Very high confidence for VFR conditions throughout the TAF
period.
A dry cold front has moved into the northern Midlands and will
continue across the forecast from 03z to 06z this evening. Calm
winds will become N/NE with speeds around 5 knots. Observations in
the Upstate and Carolina Piedmont show similar wind speeds. Models
indicate 30 knot NE winds above the surface, around 1000 to 2000
ft. At this time it appears conditions will remain under the 30 kt
LLWS criteria. But LLWS may need to be added to the TAFs if
surface winds go calm later tonight.
Tuesday, mostly clear skies and dry weather will continue. A few
high clouds may continue to stream over the area. Expect NE winds
from 5 to 10 kts throughout the day.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Thursday and
Thursday night as a weak cold front crosses the region.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
523 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Main concern will be extent of fog/dense fog after midnight into
tomorrow morning. High resolution guidance remaining consistent
in developing fog with areas of dense fog appearing more likely.
Since yesterday the area of fog continues to be a little further
west with most of the area east of the Colorado border having a
good chance. So I pulled the fog further west and having it last
through mid morning tomorrow.
Sref probabilities and other high resolution would support a dense
fog advisory having to be issued for later on tonight. 12z and 18z
Nam very consistent and the Nmm, which was capturing the wind
field the best, were showing dense fog east of the Colorado
border. Enough difference in the output that I was not certain
enough as to the area to issue an advisory for with the eastern
half having the best chance. Evening shift has been briefed and
will watch closely.
Overnight temperatures will be a function of how fast the stratus
moves in. Eastern areas will be the warmest. Stratus hangs on in
the east into the afternoon. Kept the blend high temperatures but
possible that it could end up being a little cooler in the east
than what is in there. Any precipitation looks to either be east
of the area or waits to form until early in the evening. So kept
the eastern locations dry for the afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
An upper level ridge continues to be the dominating feature during
the long term period. This results in a mainly dry forecast, besides
a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across the extreme
southeastern portion of the forecast area late Tuesday. Temperatures
look to remain above normal in the 70s and even the low
80s.
Tuesday night: A shortwave briefly breaks down the ridge, bringing
shower and thunderstorm chances to the High Plains Tuesday evening.
Better chances still appear to be east of the forecast area where
moisture increases, but the init still has a slight chance clipping
our southeastern CWA where there is limited instability.
Wednesday through Thursday night: After collaboration with
neighbors, winds were increased on Wednesday to account for higher
speeds behind a cold front. The ridge quickly rebuilds behind
Tuesday`s disturbance and the flow aloft becomes northwesterly. Dry
weather prevails.
Friday through Monday: Another disturbance passes across the
northern Plains on Friday, sending a cold front south and shifting
the flow to westerly. However, there is little moisture in place, so
a dry frontal passage is currently anticipated. Should see somewhat
cooler air move into the High Plains in time for the weekend as the
upper ridge redevelops, with this pattern persisting into next week.
Near zero PoPs continue during this timeframe.
Temperatures: Highs gradually increase through Thursday, with
temperatures in the low 80s across the majority of the area, before
dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s on Saturday behind Friday`s
system. The upper ridge rebuilds, and temperatures in the mid/upper
70s return for Monday. Low temperatures range from the upper 30s to
low 50s during this period. Lows were decreased (particularly Friday
and Saturday nights) considering the dry air mass that will be in
place.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 516 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Main aviation concern will be chance for low clouds and fog
overnight and into Tuesday morning. Old front will lift out this
evening as a warm front, to be replaced by a surface trough near
the Colorado/Kansas border overnight. Moisture pooling along and
east of the trough and moisture advection on southerly winds will
create an environment favorable for low level saturation.
However... a couple of concerns. Mid and high level clouds are
forecast to increase which may inhibit radiational cooling.
Second, low level winds lack an upslope component. HRRR notably
keeps low clouds and fog mainly in Nebraska. Nonetheless, will
carry some visibility and ceiling restrictions around sunrise at
both KGLD and KMCK, improving by mid morning as the trough moves
out and westerly downslope winds develop.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
835 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016
.DISCUSSION...
An upper level shortwave trough was moving over Southeast Texas at
8:30 PM. Radar showed an area of possible sprinkles along and
north of a line from Madisonville to Livingston. The latest HRRR
model showed that this area should exit out of the forecast area
later this evening.
Tweaked the POPS and weather. Otherwise, the latest forecast was
on track.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/
AVIATION.../00Z TAF/
Shortwave trough on water vapor satellite imagery is expected to
move east tonight and shear out. This will allow for high/mid
level clouds to clear out during the day tomorrow. High clouds may
still be enough to limit the fog potential for the area in the
morning. Possible there could be some patchy fog for KCXO/KLBX but
not enough to put in TAF. Low level moisture return is not that
strong so think TAFs will be VFR with any lower CIGS slow to
develop if at all the next couple of days.
Overpeck
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Mid afternoon temperatures across Southeast Texas under partly cloudy
skies range from the lower to mid 80s inland to around 80 at the coast.
Radar continues to show a couple possible eastward moving rain showers,
but most of it continues to likely be virga. Disturbance associated
with these radar echoes will continue moving eastward and out of the
state tonight. Cannot totally rule out a shower or two across parts
of our Gulf waters over the next couple of days, but chances right now
look too low to include in the forecast. Still looking for mainly partly
cloudy skies over the next several days with low temperatures ranging
from the upper 50s to lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the
coast and high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Mid/upper level
ridging then builds across the state from the west and southwest toward
the middle to end of the week and on into the weekend. This feature
will keep a majority of Southeast Texas on the dry side with steadily
warming and unseasonably warm temperatures (lows in the lower to mid
60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s...maybe even around 90 and possibly
close to record highs). 42
MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds are expected
over the next few days, with seas generally in the 1-3 feet range.
Seas are expected to build into the 3-5 feet range across the
offshore waters this weekend as winds increase in response to a
developing surface trough in the Bay of Campeche, but no flags are
anticipated at this time. Isolated showers (and a thunderstorm or
two will be possible by late week as an upper level disturbance
moves into the northwest Gulf from the Southern Plains. Otherwise,
expect tides one half to one foot above normal through the end of
the week.
Huffman
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 82 63 84 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 61 83 62 85 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 82 72 82 72 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1156 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016
With dewpoints still holding around 40 for most locations, looks
like fog will be favored over frost tonight, so have removed any
mention of frost from the forecast and stuck with patchy fog in
the river valleys. Also, tweaked the colder valleys down a few
degrees as we are already seeing some temperatures touching 40 on
the nose. Being we are already approaching cross over
temperatures, we may have to look at the possibility of some
localized dense fog near the river valleys. We`ll continue to
monitor satellite for any indications of some denser fog
developing. With weak dry air advection, any dense fog would be
confined to the more deeper sheltered valleys, where the dry air
may not make it into these locations as easily.
UPDATE Issued at 1054 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016
Continuing to monitor falling temperatures this evening under this
clear and stable regime. Updated the near term forecast to
include the latest observations for temps and dew points to make
sure they are well on track with current conditions once more.
Rest of forecast continues to be in good shape. All changes have
been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new forecast package was
sent out to update to "rest of tonight wording", although content
really didn`t change from previous package.
UPDATE Issued at 747 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016
Forecast seems to be in good shape at this time. Temperatures are
quickly dropping off with the loss of daytime heating this
evening. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near
term forecast for temps and dew points matched up well with the
ongoing conditions. Changes were not significant enough to
warrant any new forecast products. Near term grids have been
published and sent to NDFD/web.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 445 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016
19z sfc analysis shows a dry and mostly cloud free cold front
settling through eastern parts of the state. This boundary is
switching winds more completely to the north at 10 to 15 kts.
Plenty of sunshine on either side of the front has led to near
normal temperatures in the mid to upper 60s north to the mild
lower 70s south while dewpoints were able to mix down into the
upper 30s and lower 40s this afternoon.
The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term as
they all depict a broad trough lifting northeast and out of the
area. This will allow heights to rise for Kentucky through
Wednesday morning while energy and the next developing trough over
the plains stay well north of the area. Accordingly, will favor
the blended model solution with a lean toward the higher
resolution HRRR and NAM12 versions along with the co-op MOS
guidance.
Sensible weather will feature a clear and cool night, especially
after the post frontal winds die off. This will lead to a minor
ridge to valley temperature difference tonight and a more
significant one on Tuesday night as the sfc high shifts off to the
east. This will allow for some patchy frost to develop in isolated
spots of the deepest valleys both nights, though limited by the
dry air expected Tuesday night. As such, the vast majority of the
area of will stay frost free for another week. Additionally, both
nights could see some patchy fog along the rivers towards dawn.
Another pleasant and mostly sunny day can be expected for Tuesday
with highs similar to today - warmest southwest and 5 to 10
degrees cooler northeast.
Started with the CONSShort/ShortBlend for the bulk of the grids
with adjustments to the night-time temps revolving around terrain
differences, as well as knocking dewpoints down in the afternoon
and again Tuesday night. PoPs were again zeroed out through the
period - in line with all guidance.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016
The extended period will feature a series of shortwaves embedded in
the northern stream moving through the Ohio Valley. The first
shortwave will make its way from the central plains across the Great
Lakes late Wednesday night/Thursday, dragging a cold frontal
boundary through Eastern Kentucky. This system will bring our next
chance for precipitation by dawn on Thursday. However, operational
models have continued to back off on the QPF potential with this
frontal passage so most locations will only see a tenth of an inch
or less.
The upper level pattern becomes a bit messy beyond Friday with
several additional impulses dropping through the Ohio Valley in west-
northwest flow. Differences exist between the GFS and ECMWF with how
far south and how strong these impulses become so have remained
close to the CR Superblend solution from Saturday forward. That
being said, there is the potential for a few showers Saturday
afternoon and evening and again late Sunday night. Ridging builds
back into the Tennessee Valley on Monday setting the stage for a few
more days of dry and mild weather.
Temperatures will remain near seasonable values through the period
with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Morning lows will vary a
bit more with potential cloud cover and passing showers. But most
mornings, lows should be near climatology, in the mid and upper
40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016
With high pressure and a dry airmass in full control during the
TAF period, skies should remain clear save a few passing high
clouds during the day tomorrow. Winds will become more NE overnight,
and remain so through the day tomorrow, generally 5 knots or less.
A few gusts up to 10 knots cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon tomorrow.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
804 PM PDT MON OCT 24 2016
.DISCUSSION...Updates were already issued this evening to adjust
pops/weather and lower the wind headlines on the east side. No
further updates are planned.
The cold front has moved east of the area, and winds are
diminishing as gradients relax. Gusty winds are still certainly
occurring, especially over the mountains and open areas on the
east side, but all obs are well below criteria and guidance
suggests this trend continues tonight, so the high wind warnings
and advisories were lowered.
Evening radar shows thunderstorms edging into the coastal waters
off Gold Beach associated with a vigorous shortwave moving through
the area. The global models are too far west with the instability,
but hi-res models such as the HRRR are picking up on this nicely
and show this instability moving right up to the coast and then
gradually shifting north tonight. The area of isolated
thunderstorms was expanded to cover all the waters and just inland
from the coast. Most of these areas will not see lightning tonight,
but it certainly can`t be ruled out.
Widespread showers are occurring from west-central Siskiyou County
into the Oregon Cascades and sliding slowly east. Further west,
showers have become more isolated except in the southwest-facing
upslope areas where showers will likely continue all night. There
will be a general downward trend in shower activity tonight over
most valleys as most of the energy moves north and we find
ourselves in between systems. Pops were adjusted as such. -Wright
&&
.AVIATION...25/00Z TAF CYCLE...Mountains and terrain will be
obscured tonight as cloud base lowers to MVFR with IFR cigs
possible near rivers and streams. While MVFR cigs may not occur at
the terminals themselves at the three inland TAF sites, there will
be widespread MVFR cigs in the vicinity of these terminals. /FB
Note: The ceilometer at FAA site KOTH is out of service, so there
will be no ceiling observations available generally between the
hours of 04Z and 14Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 PM PDT MON OCT 24 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Short Term...Tonight through Thursday Night...Satellite and radar
imagery show the front has passed through most of the West Side, and
now is lies right along the spine of the Cascades. To the West,
winds have diminished and precipitation continues as showers, with
the heaviest precipitation along the southern slopes. To the East,
steadier rain and gusty winds continue. Due to this, the wind
headlines for the Rogue and Shasta valleys have been cancelled, but
the ones for the East Side will continue into this evening, as the
front slowly slides through. For more details on the updated wind
headlines, see the hazardous weather message at PDXNPWMFR.
The upper level low responsible for the wind and rain today will
remain offshore, drifting slowly north tonight through Tuesday. A
second trough will then swing under this one from the south, and
slide north along the coast Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will
bring another round of wind and rain to the area Wednesday morning.
Although pressure gradients with this system are forecast to be
lower and the surface low is not expected to deepen as it slides
through, winds may still reach advisory levels in the Shasta Valley
and over the East Side. Confidence is low, but further model runs
this evening and tonight should tilt the scales in one way or the
other.
Precipitation is another matter. With models showing 6 to 12 hour
differences in the timing of the front, and also depicting the
chance that the front could stall along the coast for a brief time,
there is a wide range of precipitation amounts that could result.
have opted towards the slower solutions, due to the weaker dynamics
and flows associated with the system, and brought the main band of
precipitation onshore along the southern Oregon coast Wednesday
afternoon, then gradually sliding it east through the evening and
into Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts will be heaviest wherever
this band stalls, with heaviest amounts along souther slopes and
east to west trending ridgelines. West Side valleys will most likely
be sheltered, and should only receive light amounts, while the bulk
of the moisture inflow never really makes it east of the Cascades.
Showers are then forecast to continue through Thursday as onshore
flow continues, conditions should dry out a bit Thursday night as
weak upper level ridging nudges into the region, but this break will
be brief as another system approaches from the south, continuing the
unsettled and wet pattern into the long term. -BPN
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...Models start this time frame in
fairly good agreement with a closed 500 mb low at 39 N and 136 W at
the same indicated 544 height. This first system of the extended
period brings rain ahead of a warm front Saturday. The models remain
in good agreement as the upper low moves down to about 100 nm
offshore of Northern CA. This brings the triple point of this system
directly over our forecast area Sunday. From there, models are in
broad agreement with a deep upper level trough over the coastal
waters off of the Pac NW, and the timing of systems will be
impossible this far out and have broad-brushed chance pops through
the remainder of the extended. -Sven
MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, October 24, 2016...Showers
and isolated thunderstorms will continue through tonight. Behind
the front later tonight, a strong low will approach the area but
stay west to northwest of the waters. This strong low will help to
maintain south Gales to the waters through Tuesday morning. Very
high, very steep and chaotic seas will develop late this afternoon
and tonight as a high and very steep west swell combines with very
steep south winds seas. These conditions will continue through
Tuesday morning. Winds will gradually lower Tuesday to small craft
advisory levels, but very steep hazardous seas may continue into
Tuesday afternoon then gradually lower.
Another strong storm may bring additional gales and very steep
hazardous seas to the waters on Wednesday. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday
for PZZ356.
Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for
PZZ350-356-376.
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1032 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move through from the north overnight followed
by high pressure through mid week. A cold front will approach
from the west on Thursday and cross the area Thursday Night and
Friday. High pressure will build over the region Saturday with
another cold front crossing Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM Monday...cold front has pushed through NE half of
area but stronger post-frontal winds with CAA just reaching
northern OBX, but still on track to spread across all areas by
morning. Slack pressure gradient along front allowed temps to drop
into mid 50s inland with radiational cooling and temps there will
initially rise back to near 60 next few hours with increased
mixing, but still expected to drop into mid-upper 40s by morning.
/Previous discussion/
As of 7 PM Mon...Latest sfc analysis shows the dry cold front
south of Albemarle Sound and will continue to push south through
this evening. High pressure will start to build behind the
front...bringing cooler and drier across the area and gusty NNE
winds developing along the beaches. Overnight lows will range from
mid 40s well inland where winds will diminish to mid/upr 50s
beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Mon...Dry high pressure will quickly build in from
the NW keeping skies mainly clear. Thicknesses support forecast
highs mainly in mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 am Mon...Surface ridge along the east coast will move
offshore by midweek. A fast-moving cold front will approach from
the northwest Thursday, passes through eastern NC Thursday night,
then moves off the coast during the day Friday with precip ending
quickly from the west. Bulk of energy and moisture pass by to the
north, so have kept PoPs no higher than chance. Models disagree
next weekend. The GFS brings another cold front w/showers through
Saturday with high pressure building in Sunday. The ECMWF has a
ridge to the south Saturday, then brings a dry front through
Sunday, with the bulk of the moisture passing to the north. HPC
favors the ECMWF solution, so have kept dry pattern going Friday
into Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tue/...
As of 7 PM Mon...High confidence of VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. A dry cold front will cross the area
tonight and keep any clouds to the east of the TAF sites if there
are any. Dry high pressure will build behind the front from the NW
late tonight under a light NNE flow...limiting fog development.
Tuesday...expect mostly clear skies under northerly flow of 5-10
knots.
Long Term /Tue Night through Sat/...
As of 3 am Mon...VFR through Wednesday night. A fast-moving cold
front will bring scattered showers (no thunder) through Thursday
night then off the coast Friday. Bulk of shower activity will be
Thursday night. Surface winds will be from the north around 10
knots Tuesday, northeast around 5 knots Wednesday, southeast
around 5 knots Thursday and west around 5 knots Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tue/...
As of 1000 PM Monday...cold front currently moving across waters
from north and stronger post-frontal north winds just reaching
northern waters which is slightly slower than forecast. Adjusted
winds with latest HRRR but still expecting 15-25 KT all waters 2
AM-5 AM and no change to SCA.
/Previous discussion/
As of 7 PM Mon...Latest buoy obs are showing WSW 10-15 knots and
seas 2-5 ft with the highest over the central waters. Made minor
tweaks to the seas to reflect current trends.
A dry cold front, currently south of the Albemarle will push
south through this evening. A good surge of NNE winds will develop
behind the front late this evening into Tuesday morning. Cont prev
fcst trends with SCA developing most waters overnight with seas
reaching around 6 feet outer waters. High pres quickly builds in
from the NW Tue and expect winds to diminish and seas drop below 6
feet by around mid day.
Long Term /Tue Night through Sat/...
As of 3 am Mon...north winds will decrease Tuesday night into
Wednesday as high pressure builds across the area from the north.
Seas will subside to 3-5 feet Tuesday night as the pressure
gradient loosens and winds diminish. As the high shifts offshore
Wednesday, winds will veer to northeast Wednesday night, then from
east to southwest Thursday as another cold front approaches from
the west. The front will sweep through the marine zones Thursday
night and off the coast Friday with winds veering to northwest.
Winds and seas Tuesday night through Friday will be mostly light,
generally 10-15 knots and 2-4 feet. Only exception will be
Wednesday north of Ocracoke, where seas may temporarily build to
3-5 feet.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ130-131-135.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM/BM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/HSA/BM
MARINE...RF/JBM/HSA/BM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
715 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 404 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated nw mid/upper level flow
through the nrn Great Lakes between a trough from ern Canada into
New England and a ridge from the srn plains into Saskatchewan. At
the surface, a ridge extended from Manitoba into the Upper MS valley
resulting in anticyclonic nw flow into Upper Michigan. Although 850
mb temps around -6C (water temps near 11C) provided enough
instability for isolated lake effect rain showers over the east,
with daytime warming and an influx of drier air, the pcpn has
diminished this afternoon.
Tonight: As high pressure continued to build into the region,
veering winds to the nne and 850 mb temps remaining near -6C will
push the lake effect westward toward n cntrl Upper Michigan.
Inversion heights near 4k-5k ft and continue acyc flow will limit
intensity. Wet-bulb zero heights suggest pcpn will remain mainly as
rain. Otherwise, mostly clear skies inland west will allow temps to
fall into the upper 20s. Temperatures in the lower 30s are expected
over the rest of the cwa.
Tuesday: Confluent mid upper level flow, high pressure building over
the region with low level dry air, and inversion heights lower to
near 3k ft will bring an end to the lake effect pcpn by afternoon.
However, the 925-850 mb thermal trough will remain close enough to
support extensive stratocu development keeping highs in the mid 40s
north and upper 40s south.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 432 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016
Surface ridge will slowly lift northeast away from the Great Lakes,
allowing flow to turn easterly by late Tue night. Guidance continues
to prog a shallow channel of moisture lingering overhead Tue ngt
into Wed, but feel this is likely overdone and could end up with
less shallow cloud cover Tue ngt. Upstream weak diffluent flow
across the upper midwest will slow the arrival of a mid-lvl
shortwave from pushing into the Dakotas until early Wed.
This should all point towards precip not arriving over the Western
Upper Pensinula until after midnight, and that too could be slower
due to a weak downstream mid-lvl ridge over eastern Quebec. Wed
morning the diffluent flow will begin to weaken, allowing the
surface wave to strengthen across Iowa and produce a much tighter
pressure gradient along the lee-side lifting north from Wisconsin
towards Upper Peninsula. But the challenge will be on timing of
cloud cover which could dampen the mixing of higher winds to the
surface Wed. Profile will be moistening more Wed morning, with
thermal profiles showing considerable cool air within the column and
could support light snow mixing with rain. Accumulations should be
difficult given the warm surface conditions; however, could see some
minor slushy mix on grassy surfaces along the eastern forecast area
with temps struggling to warm from the mid/upr 30s to lower 40s.
The shortwave will be slow to push through the forecast area Wed
ngt, and with a downstream weak ridge in place, this could result in
a longer duration of a rain/snow mixture early Thur before the
profile should warm enough to push it over to all liquid p-type.
Current thinking is that temps will be cooler for Thur highs, and
could see the lower 40s trending into the upper 30s away from the
marine environment.
The trough axis will then push east Thur ngt/Fri, with ridging
returning to the upper midwest and eventually the Northern Great
Lakes Fri. This may only be short-lived as operational guidance is
indicating the Pac-NW system will be lifting north through the
Canadian Rockies and arriving over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
late Fri/early Sat. In between the mid-week system and weekend
system, temps could rebound into the lower 50s before turning colder
and into the low/mid 40s. Confidence in the extended periods for
Sat/Sun is low at this time, given the spread amongst ensemble
forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 715 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016
Lake clouds will move back into SAW late tonight as winds shift from
NW to N-NE over Lake Superior and cause conditions to drop to MVFR
there. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 406 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016
Winds will remain below gales through the period. A tightening
gradient between a deep low pressure system moving through Quebec
and a high pressure ridge building into the Plains will lead to NW
winds gusting to 30 knots over eastern Lake Superior into this
evening. High pressure will then build across the area overnight
into Tuesday, keeping winds generally light across Lake Superior.
Southeast winds will increase again to 20 to 30 knots Wednesday into
Wednesday evening as a low pressure system passing just south of the
area. There will be a trough passage on Thursday but winds should
still remain fairly light. Friday will see south winds increase to
20 to 30 knots again over the east half of Lake Superior as another
low pressure system approaches from the Northern Plains.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Beachler
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
842 PM MST MON OCT 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system northwest of the region continues to draw a
considerable amount of subtropical moisture into the Desert
Southwest. This will lead to a threat of isolated showers and
thunderstorms through tonight. Drier and warmer conditions will
return by the middle of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Short wave continued to move northeast and into both far southeast
California and Arizona this evening. Good difluent signature, partly
seen in IR imagery, and jet dynamics with front left quad of an
upper jet moving into the western CWA. Moisture overall has been
confined mainly to mid/upper levels and instability has been rather
low - especially over south central AZ where MLCAPE has been below
200 j/kg per the SPC Mesonanalysis graphics. So, despite pretty good
QG forcing with the short wave, we have not seen overly strong
storms today and most that occurred were located over the far
western AZ deserts and portions of SE California. Still, after the
first wave of storms moved thru the lower CO river valley earlier
this evening, another area of storms pushed into far SE California
and ane VERY impressive storm formed just east of Niland to the
north of the Imperial Valley. SVR issued for this one with
reflectivity over 70dbz in the mid levels, strong mid level meso sig
and reflectivity over 55dbz above to 32k feet. Expect the wave to
move quickly east tonight and will keep a threat of showers or
storms going well past midnight especially over south central AZ.
Forecasts appear to be in decent shape for now, will make additional
edits should time permit/storms decrease out west.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Latest MRMS shows isolated showers and
thunderstorms across northern Arizona struggling to backbuild
southwestward into the deeper moisture (PWATs > 1.0 inch).
Meanwhile, an anomalous jet streak (95th percentile) across the Baja
Peninsula precedes a southern-stream short-wave trough further west
in the Eastern Pacific. Mostly cloudy skies have persisted
throughout the day across much of the Desert Southwest which has
limited diabatic heating and subsequent instability.
Conditions will become more favorable for precipitation to develop
this afternoon and this evening as the low pressure system tracks
eastward. Best chance for showers and even a thunderstorm will be
later this afternoon and this evening across La Paz, northern
Maricopa and southern Gila County where favorable upslope flow from
the approaching jet and vorticity forced ascent ahead of the trough
are maximized. Hi-res WRFs including the latest runs of the HRRR
indicate that any rain that develops will be quite light. Low-
reflectivity depiction in the models also suggests sprinkles are
certainly possible as well. With instability lacking, the chance for
a thunderstorm will be slim, however given the cooler temperatures
aloft, negative LIs suggest the potential for an isolated in-cloud
flash.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Much drier air aloft will overtake the region from west to east
starting late this evening as the jet max shifts into New Mexico.
Low level moisture will remain over most of Arizona into Tuesday
which may give rise to a few showers or maybe a thunderstorm over the
higher terrain of east-central Arizona. Flow aloft turns out of the
northwest as upper level ridging pushes northward out of Mexico.
500mb heights rebound quickly with 585dm heights already over the
area by Tuesday afternoon. This will lead to another warming trend
for the middle of this week. Highs may approach record levels in some
areas with readings likely topping out into the 90-95 degree range
starting Wednesday. This upper level ridge will get displaced
slightly to the east late Thursday into Friday as a strong upper
level low moves east northeastward toward the central California
coast. Much of the moisture with this system will remain over
California with only slight chances of showers over southeast
California. The displaced upper level ridge is forecast to remain
just to our east through the coming weekend keeping temperatures well
above normal with little to no chance of any rain.
&&
.AVIATION...South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday...
High pressure redeveloping over the Desert Southwest will bring dry
conditions and well-above normal temperatures to the region on
Thursday. Another weather system brushes the Desert Southwest from
Friday into early Saturday for an increase in humidities and a
slight chance of showers over SE CA. Warmer and drier weather is
expected to return for next Sunday. Yet another pacific weather
system brushing by to the west and north will bring cooler
temperatures and an increase in winds/humidities from Sunday night
into next Monday. Minimum humidities to remain mainly in the 15 to
25 percent range through the entire period, with overnight
recoveries in the good range.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hirsch/Kuhlman
AVIATION...Percha
FIRE WEATHER...Percha
!--not sent--!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1122 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Tuesday moves away Wednesday. Strong cold
front crosses Thursday, and another Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As 0f 1030 PM Monday...
No changes at this time, although conundrum is how expansive
stratocu might get in and near the northern mountains of WV
overnight, and its implications on the temperature, fog and frost
forecast. If it were to clear / stay clear, then frost would
become an issue farther east than currently advised.
As of 745 PM Monday...
Stratocu has dissipated and, while some may reform over northeast
WV overnight, added valley fog there. May also need to lower
temperatures and introduce frost there. Forecast is otherwise on
track.
As of 130 PM Monday...
Post frontal stratocu in abundance across the area as CAA aloft
commences. It will be a chilly night tonight and with high
pressure trying to nose in from the northwest, frost possibilities
arise. However, as if often the case around these parts, nothing
is never clear cut. There is considerable concern for stratocu to
linger across the northern WV mountains and adjacent lowland
counties overnight in northwest flow. This is backed up by various
model soundings including HRRR low level profile. Experience
warrants this concern and thus frost may be mitigated across
aforementioned locations. Further to the south and west, this
should not be much of a concern so that areas of frost are likely
across portions of southeast OH and central WV with patchy frost
across the cold spots in northeast KY and elsewhere. After
coordination with surrounding offices, elected to hoist a frost
advisory for most of southeast OH and extending east into central
WV, while leaving out the mountains for the above reasoning.
Tuesday is shaping up to be a stellar Autumn day with just some
passing high clouds as temps run a little below normal for this
time of year, mainly across the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM AM Monday...
A high pressure system will give way to a warm front Tuesday night.
Timing of the clouds and winds with this boundary could be critical
in regards to frost occurring. Based on current models, best
chances of frost will be in the northern and eastern WV counties.
Next rain producer arrives as a strong cold front on Thursday.
Models in fairly decent agreement, so expect only minor timing
changes.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 PM Monday...
Good cold air advection behind Thursday`s cold front could provide
some lingering light precipitation or drizzle into Friday.
Yet another front could arrive on Saturday, with precipitation or
drizzle once again possibly lingering into Sunday. Confidence in the
timing of this system is significantly lower compared to Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 745 PM Monday...
High pressure will bring about mainly VFR conditions this period.
Valley fog will form overnight but should remain shallow enough to
not impact the runways. The exception is the Tygart Valley. Added
IFR in fog there toward dawn. Not much if any cumulus is expected
Tuesday, so just cirrus and some high altocumulus will embellish
the sky.
Northwest surface winds quickly subside this evening, yielding
calm to light and variable flow, mainly northwest, veering to
northeast on Tuesday. Moderate northwest flow aloft will subside
somewhat overnight, and be light northwest on Tuesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high overnight, and then high on
Tuesday.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Dense fog is possible at KEKN, and MVFR mist
may form at other sites except BKW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL
INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT
ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH
MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE
MODEL.
Missing.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/25/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible Wednesday morning. Brief IFR possible
in showers Thursday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ008>011-
016>020-027>029.
OH...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ066-067-
075-076-084-085.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
545 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
West to northwest winds will continue to bring unseasonably cool
but dry conditions across the region through midweek. Some of the
coldest air of the season will push across the region Wednesday
into Thursday. Low pressure will track across the region Thu into
early Friday will bring a cold rain...possibly heavy at times and
gusty winds along the coast. A period of snow and sleet is likely
at the onset across the interior. A drying trend develops Fri in
the wake of the low, but blustery northwest winds will develop.
Another round of showers is possible sometime over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure at the surface and aloft continues to spin across the
Maritimes with W-NW flow in place. Strong H85 cold air advection
in place on the NW flow aloft, with temps falling back to -5C to
-8C through midday before leveling off. Also noting an H85 jet of
30-35 kt to pass across the region by mid-late morning. Lapse
rates will increase up to 10C/km through H85, will see low level
mixing increase. This will bring gusts up to 25-30 mph, though
may be higher across the higher inland terrain.
Will still see good downsloping on the NW flow, so expect skies
to be mostly sunny, though clouds may linger across the east
slopes of the Berkshires as well as near the Mass/NH border
through late morning. Some diurnal clouds may develop away from
the coast.
As the low across the Maritimes start to slowly shift E this
afternoon, winds will diminish from W-E, though will remain gusty
across Cape Cod and the islands. The winds will also slowly veer
to a more northerly direction toward sunset, which will allow for
low clouds to form across the warmer ocean waters near and east of
Cape Cod. Some question as to whether some ocean effect showers
may develop toward sunset as well. RAP and 4km NAM Bufkit
soundings signaling some ocean effect precip may develop on the
outer Cape. The big question will be whether the winds shift to a
more northerly direction to allow the ocean effect precip to work
in, or if it remains more NW and keep it offshore.
With the excellent cold air advection in place, will be a very
chilly day today. Expect highs only in the lower-mid 40s across
the higher inland terrain, ranging to around 50 along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight...
N-NW winds will drop off, but not completely diminish except
possibly the low inland valleys tonight. However, with the cold
air in place, temperatures will plummet. Expect temps to fall
below freezing away from the coast, but should hold in the upper
30s to mid 40s along the immediate coast.
Some of our inland areas have not experienced a killing freeze
yet, but should tonight. Have issued freeze warnings for those
areas.
Another question for tonight will be whether frost will form.
Noting relative humidities up to 75 to around 90 percent after
midnight in the areas where the freeze will take place. Can not
rule out some patchy frost, especially where the winds drop off
after midnight.
Will also ocean effect clouds across portions of Cape Cod as well
as Nantucket. There will also be a low chance for some showers
there. Have only carried slight chance POPs mainly for the outer
Cape and Nantucket.
Wednesday...
Any leftover clouds and isolated showers across the outer Cape
should end by mid morning, though clouds will linger there through
most if not the remainder of the day. Otherwise, high pressure
will slowly push into the region, allowing for lighter N-NW winds.
Skies will average out mostly sunny, though high clouds will
filter in from the W during the afternoon. It will remain chilly
though with highs in the 40s to around 50, mildest along the
immediate south coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Updated at 423 am...
Highlights...
* Coldest temperatures of the season possible Wed ngt/Thu morning
* Cold rain and wind Thu/Thu ngt w/snow and sleet likely at the
onset across the interior
* Blustery with a drying trend Fri
Wednesday Night...
1034 mb high over Quebec will nose southward into New England
providing one of the colder nights this season. 850 temp anomalies
are about -2 standard deviations colder than climo by days end Wed.
This cold/dry airmass will combine with light winds and mostly clear
skies to allow temps to plummet with sunset Wed evening. Northerly
flow over Cape Cod and the islands will preclude temps from free
falling given SSTs still in the upper 50s to low 60s. In addition
this air/sea temp difference on northerly flow will likely yield
ocean effect clouds and limit temps from being as cold as across the
interior. Any ocean effect showers on Wed will diminish as
subsidence inversion lowers Wed night with surface high cresting
over New England. Also some uncertainty on exact timing of mid/high
clouds arriving into western portions of CT/MA. This will impact
temp forecast. Otherwise just a cold/dry night with diminishing
winds. As for mins...used a blend of the colder MOS guidance to
derive low temps.
Thursday into Friday...
Interesting setup with cold airmass lingering over the region early
Thu in response to 1035 mb high over Quebec. Meanwhile Robust
northern stream short wave energy diving southeast into the Great
Lakes/OH valley. Differences in deterministic guidance with 00z EC
colder than 00z GFS on the front end with airmass over the region
early Thu. This results in the EC driving the baroclinic zone/storm
track farther southward. In addition EC is stronger with jet energy
diving into the Great Lakes/OH valley and also mergers energy
quicker than GFS...although not as robust as its prior 12z run. This
results in mid level flow digging farther southward to our
latitude...which would delay warming in the mid levels. In addition
this also results in cyclogenesis developing farther south than the
GFS...with EC forming secondary low along the south coast. This
scenario would linger low level cold air longer across the interior.
Both GEFS and EPS ensembles provide support for the deeper/colder
solution of the ECMWF. Thus will blend the stronger/colder ECMWF
solution into this forecast. However not expecting a high impact
event here given system is progressive and doesn/t really intensify
until it moves northeast of the region into coastal ME and Gulf of
ME. So for now expecting a period of snow and sleet Thu at the onset
across northwest CT/MA...possibly as far east as the Worcester Hills
with a risk of a minor accumulation across the higher terrain of the
East slopes of the Berkshires.
Otherwise...with mid level low tracking west-northwest of the region
mid level warming overspreads the entire region with a changeover to
all rain by late in the day. For the remainder of the region a cold
rain is expected and possibly heavy at times given strong jet
dynamics and moisture advection. Could also have a period of brief
strong onshore winds Thu ngt across Coastal eastern MA as secondary
low intensifies over RI/southeast MA before exiting into Gulf of ME.
System is fairly progressive so should see a drying trend Fri along
with brisk northwest winds on the backside of the low.
Weekend... Models differ on next bundle of northern stream energy.
Good agreement that there will be a period of showers sometime this
weekend. GFS is of lower amplitude with progressive system and risk
of showers late Sat into Sat night. ECMWF more dynamic with risk of
showers Sat night thru Sun night.
Early next week...uncertainty on timing of departing system Sun/Mon.
However thereafter both deterministic and ensemble guid suggest
pattern deamplifying next week...suggesting not as cold as this week.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence.
Today...VFR. Mainly FEW-SCT clouds at 5-7kft across NE Mass and
outer Cape Cod through midday. W-NW winds gusting up to 20-25 kts
across higher terrain and coastal terminals.
Tonight and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. May see MVFR CIGS move into
outer Cape Cod and Nantucket with N-NW winds around or after 00Z
through 14Z-15Z. Low risk of isolated showers.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.
Updated 423 am...
Wednesday night...
VFR and diminishing north winds.
Thursday into Friday...
IFR-LIFR likely. Initial SN/IP possible with potential accompanying
LLWS transitioning to -RA/RA with embedded +RA, possible TSRA mostly
S/SE. Blustery S/SE winds. Gusts up to 30 kts along the immediate
shoreline terminals. Improving Friday with winds turning out of the
WNW.
Saturday...
Brief period of VFR before conditions return low-end VFR to MVFR
with another chance of -RA/RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence.
NW winds will continue to gust up to 25-30 kt today, then
gradually diminish tonight. Seas will remain up to 5-8 ft. Small
craft advisories remain in effect.
Winds and seas will diminish below small craft criteria along the
near shore waters tonight, but will linger on the outer waters
into Wednesday.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.
Wednesday night...
North winds diminishing. Vsby may lower in rain and snow showers
offshore.
Thursday into Friday...
Rain on the increase through Thursday, moderate to heavy at times
with the possibility of thunderstorms. S/SE winds strengthening
ahead of a deepening area of low pressure across the region. Seas
building 8 to 10 feet the height of which will be on Friday, slowly
dropping off thereafter as winds turn out of the W behind a cold
front but remain breezy.
Saturday...
Breezy W winds continue as there is a brief lull in the weather.
Seas remain above 5 feet on a good chunk of the waters as winds
increase once again along with wet-weather late Saturday into
Saturday night.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ003.
MA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MAZ006-007-
013-014-018.
RI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001-003-
006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ232.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-
233-234-236.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ231.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ237.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ235.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250-254-
255.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ251.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/EVT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
427 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure northeast of the area will slowly move east toward the
open Atlantic through Wednesday. Canadian high pressure will then
cross the region Thursday. Low Pressure from the midwest will
approach Thursday night...cross the Downeast coast by late Friday...
then exit across the Maritimes Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An area of sn shwrs is slowly movg ESE out of NE ME into N Cntrl
NB prov very erly this morn with a mid lvl vort max. Most near
term models indicate isold to sct sn shwr cvrg for msly Nrn ptns
of the FA for the remainder of the morn before another mid lvl
vort max swinging Swrd from Ern QB potentially brings more
numerous rn/sn shwrs this aftn across the NE, where we increase
PoPs to the likely range. Fcst hrly sim radar ref from latest hrly
HRRR model runs back this scenario.
Despite sig abv fzg temps xpctd this aftn, heavier shwrs could
result in enough cooling for lgt brief accumulation. Otherwise,
sct shwrs will become all sn this eve as sfc-BL temps cool closer
to fzg. Based on projected aftn 925-850mb temps being about a deg
C less than ystdy aftn, fcst aftn hi temps across the FA should
be at least 2 deg F than ystdy, and perhaps even a little cooler
if cld cvr prevents much in the way of any brief sunshine. This
same difference in 925-850 mb temps will likely result in ovrngt
lows of a couple deg F cooler than this current erly AM.
Winds will be brisk again tdy as they turn from the NW, but not
quite as strong as ystdy, with winds diminishing to less than 10
mph tngt.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold upper trough remains in place on Wednesday with snow
showers continuing. An inverted trough will extend over the state
from a low well east of Nova Scotia. An unstable layer up towards
H700 will be in place to enable the snow showers. Boundary layer
temps lead to a northward movement of the rain/snow line during
the day, but the air aloft is sufficiently cold to maintain snow
showers all day in northern zones. Will have to keep a close eye
on whether the inverted trough becomes more focused on a
particular region as such a development could produce heavier snow
showers. The upper trough finally pulls out Wednesday night with
snow showers ending. Cold high pressure builds from northern
Quebec and should set up conditions for the coldest night of the
season. Have gone with widespread readings in the teens for
northern zones and mostly mid 20s for Bangor and the Down East
region. The high will generate sunshine for Thursday with highs
just short of 40F in the Saint John Valley and mid 40s for Bangor
and Ellsworth. Clouds increase late Thursday in advance of the
season`s first winter storm. Low pressure will track from the
Western Great Lakes region and redevelop by late night in the Gulf
of Maine. An upper level trough associated with the low will
develop a negative tilt and the surface low will deepen by late
Friday night. As always with early season winter storms, boundary
layer temperatures and elevation will be key issues. As this
point, it appears that a pretty strong onshore ESE flow will
ensure boundary layer warmth for Bangor and all of the Down East
region. The troubles could start as far south as a line from
Dexter towards southern Aroostook County. It`s conceivable that
2-3 inches of snow could fall towards Dover-Foxcroft, Greenville
and Millinocket by daybreak Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper low will cut off over Maine and the surface low will
continue to deepen Friday as it moves across the Gulf of Maine
towards the Bay of Fundy. The surface track will minimize warm air
advection northward. The upper low will promote instability aloft
and bring good potential for heavier precip rates. This means that
boundary layer issues often associated with these early season
storms could be negated and snow could remain the dominant P-type.
As a result, have made significant adjustments to the previous
forecast in keeping snow in northern zones all day. Elevation will
remain a big factor and the heaviest snows would likely be in the
Katahdin region and higher terrain in Piscataquis County. Warning
level snows are possible. Used ECMWF surface temps in the grids as
other guidance looked too warm. The snow will gradually wind down
Friday night as the upper low moves east of the state and the
heavier precip rates end. This means a transition back towards
rain with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. There will be no
real cold air advection behind this low.
Generally warmer temperatures and cloudy conditions will follow
Saturday into Monday. Temperatures will be in the 30s at night and
in the upper 40s to near 50F during the day...which will melt the
snow. There is another shortwave that will cross the area but
timing is very uncertain with solutions ranging from Saturday
night to Monday. The one certainty is that this system will be
rain.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Msly MVFR clgs and vsbys with intermittent sn and rn
shwrs tdy and msly sn shwrs tngt can be xpctd across Nrn TAF sites
with brief IFR clgs/vsbys possible with heavier sn shwrs.
Otherwise low VFR clgs for Downeast sites, with brief MVFR clgs
possible attms.
SHORT TERM: MVFR cigs with tempo IFR conditions in snow showers
will prevail Wednesday morning. Conditions will lift to VFR in the
afternoon and persist until Thursday night when the trend will be
towards IFR cigs for all sites...and LIFR/VLIFR vis in snow north
of a line from GNR to HUL. This will continue all of Friday and
into Friday night. LLWS is possible. Conditions will improve
Saturday to a prevailing condition of MVFR cigs.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Will cont the SCA ovr our outer MZs tdy and tngt msly
due to winds, but also marginal wv hts with cont`d llvl cold advcn
NW winds. Primary wv pds will be msly in the 5 to 6 sec range,
typical of short fetch off-shore wind directions. Kept close to
WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts for this ptn of the fcst.
SHORT TERM: SCA conditions may still exist early Wednesday
morning, but winds and seas will quickly diminish during the
morning. The next big event will be the potential for the season`s
second gale event beginning Thursday night and going into Friday
night. SCA conditions will follow the gale and last into Saturday
evening.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
346 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance aloft has brought clouds to the Borderland this
morning. A few showers are possible, mainly over the mountains.
The disturbance moves east of the area late this afternoon,
allowing the skies to clear. High pressure aloft then builds into
the area Wednesday and will persist for most of the remainder of
the week. This will allow clear skies and unseasonably warm
temperatures to continue through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
West flow aloft continues over the top of high pressure centered
over the southern Baja Peninsula. A short wave in this flow
continues toward New Mexico this morning and is now over eastern
Arizona. Ample higher level moisture has allowed extensive mid and
high level cloud decks over the CWA. Increasing PVA will produce
lift over the area this morning, so slight chance of showers still
looks reasonable for the Gila Region. By this afternoon the trough
is over the Sacs and combined with some weakly unstable air, a
thunderstorm is possible. NAM is bullish on this idea, and HRRR
hints at the possibility so went ahead and included afternoon POPs
for the Sacs.
Otherwise aforementioned high pressure expands and builds north
over much of the Desert Southwest through Thursday. Back to clear
skies and warm temperatures. Temperatures may be hindered a degree
or two today because of clouds, and a wind shift to the east on
Wednesday, but then highs Thursday into the weekend will approach
records, mainly because the records are lower.
A series of short waves finally nudge the high pressure eastward
some Friday and Saturday. Both GFS and ECMWF show band of higher
clouds drifting over the area Friday/Saturday period, but not much
else.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 25/12Z-26/12Z...
VFR conds expected through the period with widespread P6SM SCT/BKN150
BKN/OVC300. These clouds will mostly move off to the east by late
afternoon. Over the Gila Wilderness this morning slgt chc -SHRA
BKN100 through about 19Z. Over the Sacramento Mts after 18Z slgt
chc -SHRA/TSRA with BKN090CB til 23Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level disturbance will bring a slight chance of showers
or thunderstorms to the area through this afternoon, mainly over
the mountain zones. Otherwise, an upper ridge will start to
rebuild over the region with near record highs continuing into the
weekend. Min RHs will range from about 20-35% each day, highest in
the mountains. No significant winds are expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 86 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 82 53 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 84 52 85 52 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 83 52 85 52 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 66 38 67 36 / 10 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 82 50 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 76 47 77 48 / 10 0 0 0
Deming 84 50 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 83 49 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 85 59 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 87 52 87 49 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 88 57 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 79 54 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 87 56 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 85 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 84 56 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 83 42 84 46 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 83 46 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 85 53 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 84 54 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 74 45 74 43 / 10 0 0 0
Mescalero 74 43 74 41 / 10 0 0 0
Timberon 73 42 71 41 / 10 0 0 0
Winston 76 42 77 43 / 10 0 0 0
Hillsboro 81 43 82 42 / 10 0 0 0
Spaceport 81 44 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 77 39 78 40 / 10 0 0 0
Hurley 77 44 80 45 / 10 0 0 0
Cliff 81 36 82 36 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 78 34 80 35 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 81 43 82 44 / 10 0 0 0
Animas 84 49 87 48 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 83 48 85 47 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 83 49 86 48 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 78 50 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
17 Hefner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
225 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A light wind and a mostly clear sky will result in some patchy fog
across the eastern and southern portions of the forecast area
early this morning. A few spots could see visibilities reduced to
around 1 mile, but wind speeds should stay up just enough to
prevent widespread dense fog from forming. Any fog that does
develop will dissipate by mid morning and give way to a mostly
sunny sky.
Pacific moisture will increase from west to east today as an
upper level low rotates across the West Coast. The main energy
will remain just offshore the next several days but some short
waves will branch off and translate east across the CONUS. The
first wave which is currently across the Desert Southwest will
move into the Central Plains tonight and allow a weak cold front
to move south. The cold front is progged by nearly all models to
remain north of the Red River. However, the GFS does bring some
showers and storms to the northeast quarter of North Texas
Wednesday night. For now we feel this solution is too aggressive
since nearly all large scale forcing for ascent will be displaced
well to the north and meso-scale lift along the front will also
remain north. Therefore, we will not introduce any pops into the
forecast for the Wednesday/Wednesday night time frame.
Upper level high pressure will build in from the west behind the
mid week short wave and remain in place through the weekend.
Another short wave will translate across the Central Plains late
Friday through Saturday but this feature should have little if any
direct influence on the weather across North and Central Texas
with the exception of keeping a constant influx of low level
moisture due to surface lee troughing.
The weather pattern will not change much to start the first week
of November with southwest flow aloft and a persistent feed of
Gulf moisture.
Temperatures through early next week will be fairly consistent
with highs in the lower and middle 80s and lows in the lower and
middle 60s.
79
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1202 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
06 UTC TAF Cycle
Concerns---VFR for the DFW Metroplex. MVFR visibility and ceiling
potential at Waco Tuesday morning.
For the Metroplex TAF sites---VFR is expected to prevail through
a bulk of the 06 UTC TAF cycle. Low level flow appears as if it
will be too weak to support transport of any MVFR stratus this
far northward during the overnight hours. High clouds will invade
from the northwest ahead of a potent longwave trough across the
western portion of the U.S. Diurnal VFR CU along with mid/upper
level clouds will build through the day ahead of this feature.
There appears to be a signal from some model guidance that there
may be the potential for some MVFR stratus at the tail end of the
30 hour DFW TAF. Low confidence in the timing of the MVFR stratus,
however, warrants keeping the TAFs VFR for now.
For the Waco TAF site---A slightly tricker TAF here as there has
been some signal in the model guidance for restricted ceilings
and visibility. A couple of ingredients are already in place that
would facilitate fog development (clear skies though a few thin high
clouds are possible and light winds). The somewhat unknown
ingredient is sufficient low level moisture. Dewpoint depressions
across central McLennan County have also fallen to around 3-6
degrees. More important to Waco Regional will be the slightly
veering winds that are forecast to occur. If this occurs highly
localized moisture advection across the airfield compliments of
Lake Waco will occur, and could result in even poorer ceilings
(IFR) than currently forecast. The latest consensus of high-
resolution model output remains fairly aggressive with low
visibilities per raw output and there appears to be a reflection
of this in both NAM and RAP forecast profiles. Because of the
uncertainty as to how reduced visibilities will fall (should fog
occur), I`ll TEMPO MVFR visibility around 3SM from 11 UTC to 15
UTC. As this layer lifts, it`s likely that there will be some
brief periods of near IFR to MVFR ceilings. Thereafter, diurnal
VFR CU should develop in the afternoon.
24-Bain
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 84 64 85 65 / 5 5 10 0 0
Waco 62 85 61 86 61 / 5 5 5 0 0
Paris 59 82 60 84 61 / 5 10 10 5 0
Denton 62 84 61 84 62 / 5 5 10 0 0
McKinney 62 83 61 84 62 / 5 5 10 0 0
Dallas 65 84 65 85 65 / 5 5 10 0 0
Terrell 62 83 61 84 61 / 5 5 10 0 0
Corsicana 62 84 62 85 61 / 5 5 5 0 0
Temple 61 84 61 85 60 / 5 5 5 0 0
Mineral Wells 61 85 60 85 60 / 5 5 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
90/79
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
246 AM PDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers are possible across far northern Nevada
this afternoon as another disturbance brushes the region. Dry and
mild Wednesday and Thursday then more showers will move into the
region Thursday night and Friday with a chance for significant
rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.
Showers have ended over northeast Nevada early this morning as the
short wave has moved downstream. Southwest flow aloft prevails
today with another Pacific wave brushing northern Nevada. The
higher resolution models do not show any precipitation in the lee
of the Sierra and downstream across northern Nevada. There is
sufficient moisture and low level weak instability for an
isolated shower north of I80, the HRRR model may be too dry.
However if any showers do develop, it will be brief and most
likely miss any populated areas.
Rising heights continue tonight and Wednesday. Once the Pacific
wave brushes northern Nevada this afternoon, clearing skies are
expected late in the day. Mostly sunny conditions are expected on
Wednesday with warmer days. Valleys reaching the upper 60s to
lower 70s will be common.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Tuesday.
With the upper level pattern continuing to be progressive,
several storms are poised to move through the Great Basin and
yield some precipitation. The strength and moisture content is
still hard to determine at this time do to variance from model to
model. There is better agreement however between the models on the
system before Monday so confidence in the long term forecast is
improving. There is still large discrepancy on the storm system
beyond Monday as different model solutions vary largely in timing
and intensity. Another source of uncertainty will be caused by the
the infusion of energy from dying tropical systems later in the
week which the models are not currently handling well.
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. High pressure centered
over Mexico and the Baja Region will provide dry weather.
Temperatures will be relatively mild as 582DM H5 heights expand
northward into Idaho and Wyoming. Lows will generally be in the
40s.
Thursday afternoon. A weak shortwave will move through the
Pacific Northwest and brush Nevada. The passage of this wave will
help pull up some Pacific moisture into Humboldt County primarily,
but could affect parts of Lander and Nye Counties as well. High
temperatures will be in the 60s.
Thursday night to Friday night. A robust shortwave will move
through California and Nevada with some remnant tropical moisture
getting infused into the flow. With a good fetch of moisture,
this system could produce a half-inch of rain for the valleys of
northern Nevada as it crosses and re- develops lee-side of the
Sierras. Low temperatures will be in the 40s. High temperatures
will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s.
Saturday morning to afternoon. A fairly dry period with ample
cloud cover in between storm systems. This period will see the
previous moisture move eastward with a deepening system off the
west coast. The moisture will gradually begin to intrude across
the state. High temperature will be in the 50`s
Saturday night through Sunday. A strong short wave trough is
progged to pass over the state bringing ample moisture for another
round of showers. There is a little model discrepancy on the
exact intensity of this trough which may impact the coverage of
the moisture and showers. High temperatures will range from the
mid 50s to the lower 60s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s.
Monday through Tuesday. A fair amount of model discrepancy is
present after the passage of the strong short wave trough on
Sunday. Both the EC and GFS agree that another short wave trough
will form and move inland but they cannot agree on timing and
intensity. The EC favors a far slower and deeper system while the
GFS favors a weak rapid moving system. This produces great
uncertainty with the moisture profile of the system and the
impacts it will have on the state. High temperatures will be in
the 50s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions with generally light winds for all
terminals for the next 24 hours. There will be the chance for some
fog at KEKO this morning but the confidence is not high due to
intruding drier air which may impede formation.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers will be confined to far northern
NV. Dry all areas Wednesday and Thursday. Mild temperatures will
continue with the warmer locales reaching the lower 70s on
Wednesday and Thursday. Another storm system will bring showers
Thursday night and Friday.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
88/99/99/88
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
320 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.DISCUSSION...
High clouds will continue to increase today ahead of a fast moving
shortwave trough. Being late October this should have some impact
on insolation this afternoon. RAP and NAM soundings indicate the
best opportunity for afternoon storms will be across southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Even this area will likely
remain capped.
This evening and overnight, showers and a few thunderstorms may
develop, especially across north central Oklahoma. Will keep high
chance POPs for this area. An associated front will enter
northwest Oklahoma around sunrise Wednesday, while a few elevated
showers move across north central and central Oklahoma.
By mid to late afternoon, the frontal boundary will become nearly
stationary north and west of Interstate 44. Capping will be an
issue again, but an isolated storm or two may form ahead of front
during peak heating (central and south central OK).
After Wednesday, a mid and upper ridge centered over northern
Mexico will build east into Texas and the Southern Plains. This
will bring yet another period of dry weather with well above
average temperatures. A weak front should push into far northern
Oklahoma Saturday afternoon, but areas ahead of the front will
warm into at least the mid and upper 80s. Near record high
temperature are expected at least Friday and Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 78 62 81 57 / 0 30 30 10
Hobart OK 79 63 83 55 / 0 10 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 80 63 84 58 / 0 10 10 0
Gage OK 80 58 83 48 / 0 20 0 0
Ponca City OK 80 63 80 52 / 0 50 30 0
Durant OK 80 60 82 61 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
11/06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
322 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
A lead upper level trough ahead of a nearly stationary longer wave
length upper trough off the western coast of the US will lift
northeast across the plains Tonight. A lee surface low across
western KS will deepen through the day and move northeast into south
central NE by 00Z WED. A surface cold front will move from eastern
CO, eastward across west central KS through the afternoon hours and
into the western counties of the CWA by 02Z WED.
Point forecast soundings from the 00Z NAM and WRF models show an EML
at around 735MB overspreading the warm sector during the afternoon
hours and through the evening hours as well. There may be enough
ascent ahead of the weak upper trough and lift along the surface
front for scattered thunderstorms to develop southwest along the
surface front from southern NE across the central counties of the
CWA after 3Z. The only model that shows deep moist convection
developing after 00Z is the 00Z GFS model. The WRF solutions keep
the CAP strong enough that only isolated storms develop after 9Z
along the surface front along and southeast of the KS turnpike.
The most favorable environment for strong to severe thunderstorms
would be during the late afternoon and early evening hours where
MLCAPES will increase to 1500-2000 J/KG with 0-6KM shear increasing
to 25 to 30 KTS. However the cap may prevent storms from developing
along the front. If surface based storms manage to break the cap,
they may become severe with the potential for large hail and
damaging wind gusts across north central KS. If the NAM, WRF and RAP
solutions end up verifying then thunderstorms may not develop until
near midnight across the eastern and southern half of the CWA. The
MUCAPE will decrease to 1000-1500 J/KG but the 0-6KM shear will
increase slightly to 30 to 40 KTS. Thus a strong or severe
thunderstorms will still be possible. If deep moist convection does
not develop until around 6Z the primary hazard with any strong to
severe storm would be large hail, since the boundary layer may
decouple enough to prevent severe wind gusts. Rainfall will depend
on thunderstorm coverage and intensity. If storms develop along the
front around 6z and last through the early morning hours, then some
locations across east central KS may pick up a quarter to a half
inch of rainfall.
Highs this afternoon will reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon
as WAA at 850mb increases 850mb temperatures between 14 and 18
degree C. The boundary layer should mix to around 850mb and any
stratus this morning should mix out during the late morning and
early afternoon hours. South winds will increase to 15 to 25 MPH
with higher gusts from the late morning hours through the afternoon
and into the evening hours.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
The mid range and extended forecast will be dominated by an upper
ridge over the southern US resulting in mainly zonal flow over
the region. A series of dry cold fronts will cause up and down
temperatures. The first front passes through the area Friday
night, therefore Friday appears to be the warmest day. High
temperatures are forecasted to reach around 80, but only cool into
the low to mid 70s over the weekend. Another front approaches the
area on Monday so highs slightly increase only to drop into the
60s by Tuesday. A deepening trough over the western US will allow
more shortwaves to track over the central plains, which will bring
chances for showers and storms through mid week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Models show a warm air advection pattern persisting overnight with
decent isentropic upglide and moisture return. Although forecast
soundings maintain some inhibition just above the lift. Because
of this have not included any mention of precip and high res
models suggest areas north of the terminals may be more likely
for elevated showers. Forecast soundings also show a steep
inversion developing, so LLWS is of some concern. Winds at the top
of the inversion are progged to be from the south at 20 to 25 KT
and profiler data have been verifying this. Will continue to
monitor trends to see how strong the low level jet becomes
overnight. Stratus with the low level warm air advection is coming
in around 4 KFT so a VFR forecast looks on track.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
856 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
At 8 am CDT a warm frontal boundary extended from low pressure
across western South Dakota through eastern Nebraska. During the
day today a short wave trough will move from Wyoming through the
northern plains. Deterministic models all show increasing chances
for showers across south central and eastern North Dakota. Latest
HRRR runs focus the accumulating rainfall east of the Missouri
river with best chances in the James river valley as the southerly
low level flow increases in response to the approaching short
wave. current forecast looks good.
UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
First round of very light showers continues to push east through
south central North Dakota into the James River Valley. Expect
this to continue to slide east with the broader are of
precipitation developing later today. Previous forecast reflected
this well so kept changes to a minimum.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Chances of rain showers highlights the short term forecast.
Currently...an upper level ridge was established over the northern
plains with a shortwave impulse over Wyoming moving northeastward. A
southeasterly level jet was also in place from the central plains
northward through the Dakotas and into Saskatchewan.
As the upper level shortwave approaches, we should see increasing
low and mid level cloud layers forming and streaming
north/northwestward across the region. The upper level shortwave is
forecast to move northeast across SD and the southern ND, reaching MN
late tonight. Plenty of moisture expected from the low level jet
should bring some moderate rainfall to the James Valley, where
chances of rain showers are likely - especially this afternoon and
evening. There may be some very light isolated showers in western ND
today, but the better chances are in the central - with the best
chances farther east in the James Valley.
Temperatures today are expected to be in the 50s in the west, but
only reach into the 40s in the James Valley.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
The main feature in the extended period will be a cold front moving
through the state on Friday.
The upper level ridge builds back up Wednesday/Thursday bringing
dry weather and warmer conditions with highs in the 50s and 60s.
Another shortwave riding the ridge will bring a cold front through
the region Friday with gusty northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph and
cooler conditions, with highs Friday in the 50s, but highs only
in the 40s on Saturday. More upper level shortwave impulses
following the cold front will bring a chance of rain or snow to
mainly western ND Friday night and Saturday morning.
Another upper level longwave trough arrives over the west coast
Saturday/Sunday. Shortwave energy from this trough streams
northeastward across the Rockies as the trough expands and begins
moving east. This will bring another chance of rain to our area
Monday, with a chance of rain/snow Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
VFR conditions early this morning will gradually transition to
MVFR after daybreak in stratus across much of western and central
North Dakota. There is some uncertainty regarding whether the
stratus will reach as far west as KISN or KDIK. In central ND
ceilings will continue to lower into the afternoon, with IFR
conditions possible in rain.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
711 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
West to northwest winds will continue to bring unseasonably cool
but dry conditions across the region through midweek. Some of the
coldest air of the season will push across the region Wednesday
into Thursday. Low pressure will track across the region Thu into
early Friday and will be accompanied by a cold rain...possibly
heavy at times and gusty winds along the coast. A period of snow
and sleet is likely at the onset across the interior. A drying
trend develops Fri in the wake of the low, but blustery northwest
winds develop. Another round of showers is possible sometime over
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 am update...
Not much change from previous forecast. Cold but dry NW flow
continues across New England. SPC mesoanalysis indicates 850 temps
currently -5C to -6C across the area at 7 am with -9C upstream
just across the NY/VT Canadian border. Thus robust cold air
advection for late Oct with 850 mb temps anomalies running around
-2 standard deviations colder than climo.
Winds will increase later this morning as solar heating increases
blyr mixing. This will only exacerbate the chilly conditions.
Expect a mix of sun and clouds in this flow regime. Previous
discussion below.
===================================================================
Low pressure at the surface and aloft continues to spin across the
Maritimes with W-NW flow in place. Strong H85 cold air advection
in place on the NW flow aloft, with temps falling back to -5C to
-8C through midday before leveling off. Also noting an H85 jet of
30-35 kt to pass across the region by mid-late morning. Lapse
rates will increase up to 10C/km through H85, will see low level
mixing increase. This will bring gusts up to 25-30 mph, though
may be higher across the higher inland terrain.
Will still see good downsloping on the NW flow, so expect skies
to be mostly sunny, though clouds may linger across the east
slopes of the Berkshires as well as near the Mass/NH border
through late morning. Some diurnal clouds may develop away from
the coast.
As the low across the Maritimes start to slowly shift E this
afternoon, winds will diminish from W-E, though will remain gusty
across Cape Cod and the islands. The winds will also slowly veer
to a more northerly direction toward sunset, which will allow for
low clouds to form across the warmer ocean waters near and east of
Cape Cod. Some question as to whether some ocean effect showers
may develop toward sunset as well. RAP and 4km NAM Bufkit
soundings signaling some ocean effect precip may develop on the
outer Cape. The big question will be whether the winds shift to a
more northerly direction to allow the ocean effect precip to work
in, or if it remains more NW and keep it offshore.
With the excellent cold air advection in place, will be a very
chilly day today. Expect highs only in the lower-mid 40s across
the higher inland terrain, ranging to around 50 along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight...
N-NW winds will drop off, but not completely diminish except
possibly the low inland valleys tonight. However, with the cold
air in place, temperatures will plummet. Expect temps to fall
below freezing away from the coast, but should hold in the upper
30s to mid 40s along the immediate coast.
Some of our inland areas have not experienced a killing freeze
yet, but should tonight. Have issued freeze warnings for those
areas.
Another question for tonight will be whether frost will form.
Noting relative humidities up to 75 to around 90 percent after
midnight in the areas where the freeze will take place. Can not
rule out some patchy frost, especially where the winds drop off
after midnight.
Will also ocean effect clouds across portions of Cape Cod as well
as Nantucket. There will also be a low chance for some showers
there. Have only carried slight chance POPs mainly for the outer
Cape and Nantucket.
Wednesday...
Any leftover clouds and isolated showers across the outer Cape
should end by mid morning, though clouds will linger there through
most if not the remainder of the day. Otherwise, high pressure
will slowly push into the region, allowing for lighter N-NW winds.
Skies will average out mostly sunny, though high clouds will
filter in from the W during the afternoon. It will remain chilly
though with highs in the 40s to around 50, mildest along the
immediate south coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Updated at 423 am...
Highlights...
* Coldest temperatures of the season possible Wed ngt/Thu morning
* Cold rain and wind Thu/Thu ngt w/snow and sleet likely at the
onset across the interior
* Blustery with a drying trend Fri
Wednesday Night...
1034 mb high over Quebec will nose southward into New England
providing one of the colder nights this season. 850 temp anomalies
are about -2 standard deviations colder than climo by days end Wed.
This cold/dry airmass will combine with light winds and mostly clear
skies to allow temps to plummet with sunset Wed evening. Northerly
flow over Cape Cod and the islands will preclude temps from free
falling given SSTs still in the upper 50s to low 60s. In addition
this air/sea temp difference on northerly flow will likely yield
ocean effect clouds and limit temps from being as cold as across the
interior. Any ocean effect showers on Wed will diminish as
subsidence inversion lowers Wed night with surface high cresting
over New England. Also some uncertainty on exact timing of mid/high
clouds arriving into western portions of CT/MA. This will impact
temp forecast. Otherwise just a cold/dry night with diminishing
winds. As for mins...used a blend of the colder MOS guidance to
derive low temps.
Thursday into Friday...
Interesting setup with cold airmass lingering over the region early
Thu in response to 1035 mb high over Quebec. Meanwhile Robust
northern stream short wave energy diving southeast into the Great
Lakes/OH valley. Differences in deterministic guidance with 00z EC
colder than 00z GFS on the front end with airmass over the region
early Thu. This results in the EC driving the baroclinic zone/storm
track farther southward. In addition EC is stronger with jet energy
diving into the Great Lakes/OH valley and also mergers energy
quicker than GFS...although not as robust as its prior 12z run. This
results in mid level flow digging farther southward to our
latitude...which would delay warming in the mid levels. In addition
this also results in cyclogenesis developing farther south than the
GFS...with EC forming secondary low along the south coast. This
scenario would linger low level cold air longer across the interior.
Both GEFS and EPS ensembles provide support for the deeper/colder
solution of the ECMWF. Thus will blend the stronger/colder ECMWF
solution into this forecast. However not expecting a high impact
event here given system is progressive and doesn/t really intensify
until it moves northeast of the region into coastal ME and Gulf of
ME. So for now expecting a period of snow and sleet Thu at the onset
across northwest CT/MA...possibly as far east as the Worcester Hills
with a risk of a minor accumulation across the higher terrain of the
East slopes of the Berkshires.
Otherwise...with mid level low tracking west-northwest of the region
mid level warming overspreads the entire region with a changeover to
all rain by late in the day. For the remainder of the region a cold
rain is expected and possibly heavy at times given strong jet
dynamics and moisture advection. Could also have a period of brief
strong onshore winds Thu ngt across Coastal eastern MA as secondary
low intensifies over RI/southeast MA before exiting into Gulf of ME.
System is fairly progressive so should see a drying trend Fri along
with brisk northwest winds on the backside of the low.
Weekend... Models differ on next bundle of northern stream energy.
Good agreement that there will be a period of showers sometime this
weekend. GFS is of lower amplitude with progressive system and risk
of showers late Sat into Sat night. ECMWF more dynamic with risk of
showers Sat night thru Sun night.
Early next week...uncertainty on timing of departing system Sun/Mon.
However thereafter both deterministic and ensemble guid suggest
pattern deamplifying next week...suggesting not as cold as this week.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Updated 7 am...
Not much change from 06z and 09z TAFs. Any cigs will be in the VFR
range. Main issue today will be gusty WNW winds from late morning
into the afternoon. Earlier discussion below.
=====================================================================
Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence.
Today...VFR. Mainly FEW-SCT clouds at 5-7kft across NE Mass and
outer Cape Cod through midday. W-NW winds gusting up to 20-25 kts
across higher terrain and coastal terminals.
Tonight and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. May see MVFR CIGS move into
outer Cape Cod and Nantucket with N-NW winds around or after 00Z
through 14Z-15Z. Low risk of isolated showers.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.
Updated 423 am...
Wednesday night...
VFR and diminishing north winds.
Thursday into Friday...
IFR-LIFR likely. Initial SN/IP possible with potential accompanying
LLWS transitioning to -RA/RA with embedded +RA, possible TSRA mostly
S/SE. Blustery S/SE winds. Gusts up to 30 kts along the immediate
shoreline terminals. Improving Friday with winds turning out of the
WNW.
Saturday...
Brief period of VFR before conditions return low-end VFR to MVFR
with another chance of -RA/RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Wednesday/...High confidence.
NW winds will continue to gust up to 25-30 kt today, then
gradually diminish tonight. Seas will remain up to 5-8 ft. Small
craft advisories remain in effect.
Winds and seas will diminish below small craft criteria along the
near shore waters tonight, but will linger on the outer waters
into Wednesday.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.
Wednesday night...
North winds diminishing. Vsby may lower in rain and snow showers
offshore.
Thursday into Friday...
Rain on the increase through Thursday, moderate to heavy at times
with the possibility of thunderstorms. S/SE winds strengthening
ahead of a deepening area of low pressure across the region. Seas
building 8 to 10 feet the height of which will be on Friday, slowly
dropping off thereafter as winds turn out of the W behind a cold
front but remain breezy.
Saturday...
Breezy W winds continue as there is a brief lull in the weather.
Seas remain above 5 feet on a good chunk of the waters as winds
increase once again along with wet-weather late Saturday into
Saturday night.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ003.
MA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MAZ006-007-
013-014-018.
RI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001-003-
006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ232.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-
233-234-236.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ231.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ237.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ235.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ250-254-
255.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ251.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/EVT
NEAR TERM...Nocera/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Nocera
AVIATION...Nocera/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/EVT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1123 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure northeast of the area will slowly move east toward the
open Atlantic through Wednesday. Canadian high pressure will then
cross the region Thursday. Low Pressure from the midwest will
approach Thursday night...cross the Downeast coast by late Friday...
then exit across the Maritimes Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:20 AM Update...Increased cloud cover Downeast where clouds have
filled in as moisture circulates south across the area. Also
raised temps a couple degrees Downeast through the midday hours.
Otherwise, no major changes this hour.
Orgnl Disc: An area of sn shwrs is slowly movg ESE out of NE ME
into N Cntrl NB prov very erly this morn with a mid lvl vort max.
Most near term models indicate isold to sct sn shwr cvrg for msly
Nrn ptns of the FA for the remainder of the morn before another
mid lvl vort max swinging Swrd from Ern QB potentially brings more
numerous rn/sn shwrs this aftn across the NE, where we increase
PoPs to the likely range. Fcst hrly sim radar ref from latest hrly
HRRR model runs back this scenario.
Despite sig abv fzg temps xpctd this aftn, heavier shwrs could
result in enough cooling for lgt brief accumulation. Otherwise,
sct shwrs will become all sn this eve as sfc-BL temps cool closer
to fzg. Based on projected aftn 925-850mb temps being about a deg
C less than ystdy aftn, fcst aftn hi temps across the FA should
be at least 2 deg F than ystdy, and perhaps even a little cooler
if cld cvr prevents much in the way of any brief sunshine. This
same difference in 925-850 mb temps will likely result in ovrngt
lows of a couple deg F cooler than this current erly AM.
Winds will be brisk again tdy as they turn from the NW, but not
quite as strong as ystdy, with winds diminishing to less than 10
mph tngt.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold upper trough remains in place on Wednesday with snow
showers continuing. An inverted trough will extend over the state
from a low well east of Nova Scotia. An unstable layer up towards
H700 will be in place to enable the snow showers. Boundary layer
temps lead to a northward movement of the rain/snow line during
the day, but the air aloft is sufficiently cold to maintain snow
showers all day in northern zones. Will have to keep a close eye
on whether the inverted trough becomes more focused on a
particular region as such a development could produce heavier snow
showers. The upper trough finally pulls out Wednesday night with
snow showers ending. Cold high pressure builds from northern
Quebec and should set up conditions for the coldest night of the
season. Have gone with widespread readings in the teens for
northern zones and mostly mid 20s for Bangor and the Down East
region. The high will generate sunshine for Thursday with highs
just short of 40F in the Saint John Valley and mid 40s for Bangor
and Ellsworth. Clouds increase late Thursday in advance of the
season`s first winter storm. Low pressure will track from the
Western Great Lakes region and redevelop by late night in the Gulf
of Maine. An upper level trough associated with the low will
develop a negative tilt and the surface low will deepen by late
Friday night. As always with early season winter storms, boundary
layer temperatures and elevation will be key issues. As this
point, it appears that a pretty strong onshore ESE flow will
ensure boundary layer warmth for Bangor and all of the Down East
region. The troubles could start as far south as a line from
Dexter towards southern Aroostook County. It`s conceivable that
2-3 inches of snow could fall towards Dover-Foxcroft, Greenville
and Millinocket by daybreak Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper low will cut off over Maine and the surface low will
continue to deepen Friday as it moves across the Gulf of Maine
towards the Bay of Fundy. The surface track will minimize warm air
advection northward. The upper low will promote instability aloft
and bring good potential for heavier precip rates. This means that
boundary layer issues often associated with these early season
storms could be negated and snow could remain the dominant P-type.
As a result, have made significant adjustments to the previous
forecast in keeping snow in northern zones all day. Elevation will
remain a big factor and the heaviest snows would likely be in the
Katahdin region and higher terrain in Piscataquis County. Warning
level snows are possible. Used ECMWF surface temps in the grids as
other guidance looked too warm. The snow will gradually wind down
Friday night as the upper low moves east of the state and the
heavier precip rates end. This means a transition back towards
rain with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. There will be no
real cold air advection behind this low.
Generally warmer temperatures and cloudy conditions will follow
Saturday into Monday. Temperatures will be in the 30s at night and
in the upper 40s to near 50F during the day...which will melt the
snow. There is another shortwave that will cross the area but
timing is very uncertain with solutions ranging from Saturday
night to Monday. The one certainty is that this system will be
rain.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Msly MVFR clgs and vsbys with intermittent sn and rn
shwrs tdy and msly sn shwrs tngt can be xpctd across Nrn TAF sites
with brief IFR clgs/vsbys possible with heavier sn shwrs.
Otherwise low VFR clgs for Downeast sites, with brief MVFR clgs
possible attms.
SHORT TERM: MVFR cigs with tempo IFR conditions in snow showers
will prevail Wednesday morning. Conditions will lift to VFR in the
afternoon and persist until Thursday night when the trend will be
towards IFR cigs for all sites...and LIFR/VLIFR vis in snow north
of a line from GNR to HUL. This will continue all of Friday and
into Friday night. LLWS is possible. Conditions will improve
Saturday to a prevailing condition of MVFR cigs.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Will cont the SCA ovr our outer MZs tdy and tngt msly
due to winds, but also marginal wv hts with cont`d llvl cold advcn
NW winds. Primary wv pds will be msly in the 5 to 6 sec range,
typical of short fetch off-shore wind directions. Kept close to
WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts for this ptn of the fcst.
SHORT TERM: SCA conditions may still exist early Wednesday
morning, but winds and seas will quickly diminish during the
morning. The next big event will be the potential for the season`s
second gale event beginning Thursday night and going into Friday
night. SCA conditions will follow the gale and last into Saturday
evening.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...VJN/MCB
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1033 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.UPDATE...
Removed morning fog mention in parts of southern and southeastern
Oklahoma where the fog has dissipated. Increased cloud cover
today. Delayed rain chances tonight a few hours.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Mostly cloudy, warm, and humid conditions will continue for the
rest of today.
High level cloud cover will continue to overspread Oklahoma and
north Texas today, however no rain is expected during the daylight
hours as the mid levels of the atmosphere remain dry. The air
should remain capped. Forecast highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s appear to be on track.
Latest models, particularly the HRRR, keep depicting showers and
storms moving into northern Oklahoma from Kansas after 9 pm this
evening at the earliest, and probably not until after midnight
tonight. Thus, delayed the rain chances tonight. A few strong to
perhaps severe storms are possible in far northern Oklahoma late
tonight where MUCAPE is forecast to be 800-1400 J/kg and 0-6 km
shear will be near 25 kt. Marginal hail up to quarter size and
marginal wind gusts up to 60 mph could occur. Not confident that
severe storms will occur. The greater storm chances and coverage
are expected to stay north of the Oklahoma Kansas state line.
Products will be updated shortly.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
AVIATION...
High clouds will increase this morning from west to east.
Meanwhile, some fog and low clouds have recently formed
across southeast Oklahoma. Low clouds with MVFR ceilings
may develop for a few hours in and around OKC/OUN and perhaps
LAW but confidence is not high. Later this evening and overnight,
widely scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly
across north central Oklahoma after 8z. MVFR conditions are
possible with thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
DISCUSSION...
High clouds will continue to increase today ahead of a fast moving
shortwave trough. Being late October this should have some impact
on insolation this afternoon. RAP and NAM soundings indicate the
best opportunity for afternoon storms will be across southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Even this area will likely
remain capped.
This evening and overnight, showers and a few thunderstorms may
develop, especially across north central Oklahoma. Will keep high
chance POPs for this area. An associated front will enter
northwest Oklahoma around sunrise Wednesday, while a few elevated
showers move across north central and central Oklahoma.
By mid to late afternoon, the frontal boundary will become nearly
stationary north and west of Interstate 44. Capping will be an
issue again, but an isolated storm or two may form ahead of front
during peak heating (central and south central OK).
After Wednesday, a mid and upper ridge centered over northern
Mexico will build east into Texas and the Southern Plains. This
will bring yet another period of dry weather with well above
average temperatures. A weak front should push into far northern
Oklahoma Saturday afternoon, but areas ahead of the front will
warm into at least the mid and upper 80s. Near record high
temperature are expected at least Friday and Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 78 62 81 57 / 0 30 30 10
Hobart OK 79 63 83 55 / 0 10 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 80 63 84 58 / 0 10 10 0
Gage OK 80 58 83 48 / 0 20 0 0
Ponca City OK 80 63 80 52 / 0 50 30 0
Durant OK 80 60 82 61 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
17/23
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
A lead upper level trough ahead of a nearly stationary longer wave
length upper trough off the western coast of the US will lift
northeast across the plains Tonight. A lee surface low across
western KS will deepen through the day and move northeast into south
central NE by 00Z WED. A surface cold front will move from eastern
CO, eastward across west central KS through the afternoon hours and
into the western counties of the CWA by 02Z WED.
Point forecast soundings from the 00Z NAM and WRF models show an EML
at around 735MB overspreading the warm sector during the afternoon
hours and through the evening hours as well. There may be enough
ascent ahead of the weak upper trough and lift along the surface
front for scattered thunderstorms to develop southwest along the
surface front from southern NE across the central counties of the
CWA after 3Z. The only model that shows deep moist convection
developing after 00Z is the 00Z GFS model. The WRF solutions keep
the CAP strong enough that only isolated storms develop after 9Z
along the surface front along and southeast of the KS turnpike.
The most favorable environment for strong to severe thunderstorms
would be during the late afternoon and early evening hours where
MLCAPES will increase to 1500-2000 J/KG with 0-6KM shear increasing
to 25 to 30 KTS. However the cap may prevent storms from developing
along the front. If surface based storms manage to break the cap,
they may become severe with the potential for large hail and
damaging wind gusts across north central KS. If the NAM, WRF and RAP
solutions end up verifying then thunderstorms may not develop until
near midnight across the eastern and southern half of the CWA. The
MUCAPE will decrease to 1000-1500 J/KG but the 0-6KM shear will
increase slightly to 30 to 40 KTS. Thus a strong or severe
thunderstorms will still be possible. If deep moist convection does
not develop until around 6Z the primary hazard with any strong to
severe storm would be large hail, since the boundary layer may
decouple enough to prevent severe wind gusts. Rainfall will depend
on thunderstorm coverage and intensity. If storms develop along the
front around 6z and last through the early morning hours, then some
locations across east central KS may pick up a quarter to a half
inch of rainfall.
Highs this afternoon will reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon
as WAA at 850mb increases 850mb temperatures between 14 and 18
degree C. The boundary layer should mix to around 850mb and any
stratus this morning should mix out during the late morning and
early afternoon hours. South winds will increase to 15 to 25 MPH
with higher gusts from the late morning hours through the afternoon
and into the evening hours.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
The mid range and extended forecast will be dominated by an upper
ridge over the southern US resulting in mainly zonal flow over
the region. A series of dry cold fronts will cause up and down
temperatures. The first front passes through the area Friday
night, therefore Friday appears to be the warmest day. High
temperatures are forecasted to reach around 80, but only cool into
the low to mid 70s over the weekend. Another front approaches the
area on Monday so highs slightly increase only to drop into the
60s by Tuesday. A deepening trough over the western US will allow
more shortwaves to track over the central plains, which will bring
chances for showers and storms through mid week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Southerly winds
will increase near midday with sustained 10-15 knots and gusts
20-25 knots. With a strong pressure gradient in place, the current
expectation is for winds to continue gusting into the overnight
hours. Introduce VCTS for MHK at 05Z and the Topeka terminals at
07Z. Future outlooks may need to introduce a TEMPO group for
TSRA, especially at the Topeka terminals. However, confidence is
too low at this point. Any remaining shower/storm activity will
shift southeast of the terminals near the end of the period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Baerg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
312 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
...Warmer or Much Warmer Than Normal Temps Cont for the Next Week
with Most Locations Remaining Bone Dry...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Aloft: A ridge was over the Plains with a weak shortwave trof
moving thru it. WV imagery showed this trof from WY-CO-NM. This
trof will move thru tonight. The ridge will retrograde to the
Rockies in its wake tomorrow with NW flow over the Plains.
Surface: Cyclogenesis was underway. Low pres will emerge into Neb
this eve and will cross SE Neb tonight on its way into IA. A warm
front will E/SE from this low but there will be no real cool
front. Just a trailing trof/dryline near Hwy 283 at 19Z. This trof
will cross the fcst area tonight. Weak high pres will temporarily
nose into the region tomorrow.
Another very warm day was in progress with breezy SE winds
gusting up to 25 kts at times over the SE 1/2 of the fcst area.
The fog that develop W of Hwy 183 lifted into a stubborn bank of
stratus that has been slow to erode. This has kept temps cooler
with MCK at 55F and LXN at 60 at 19Z.
Until Sunset: P-M/cloudy. Probably dry. As mentioned in the 1259
pm version of this product...an EML/cap has advected over the
region. Temps will peak 75-84F over much of the fcst area with
dwpts 55-61F. With very steep (8C/km) mid-lvl lapse rates above
this...MLCAPE should maximize as high as 1500 J/kg. However...
forcing associated with the trof is weak. Mesoanalysis shows CINH
less than -100 J/kg ...and we are approaching peak heating.
We might see an isolated shwr/tstm E of hwy 281...but don`t bet
on it. The cap will probably prevent/delay convective initiation
long enough for the sfc convergence/trof to be E and S of the fcst
area. Anything that develops will probably be after sunset and
will be over Ern Neb and/or Ern/Cntrl KS. That is exactly what the
HRRR and HRRRX are showing.
W of Hwy 281 over Neb there`s zero chance of rain.
Low temps tonight still way above normal (15-20F).
Wed: Back to very nice wx with high temps still 10F above normal.
NW winds will be a little brisk thru early afternoon (12-16 mph).
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Aloft: A ridge will dominate over the Cntrl USA which means above
to much above normal warmth will cont. A shortwave trof will move
in off the Pac and thru the ridge Fri night into Sat. Another
weaker trof is slated to move thru Mon.
Surface: A cool front will make its way thru the Wrn USA the next
few days. Low pres will form and move E thru the Nrn Plains Fri-
Sat. The cool front will move thru Fri night into Sat morning.
High pres will briefly nose in Sat-Sun with the next low forming
and cool frontal passage occurring Mon.
There is no end in sight to the anomalous warmth. Thu-Fri and Mon
are looking incredibly warm (at least 20F and close to 25F Fri).
Raised temps above fcst initialization Fri in coord with
neighboring offices. Mon we are probably not warm enough yet but
there`s time.
No high-impact/hazardous wx is currently foreseen...but fire wx
could be a concern if winds can coincide with low RH. No obvious
threat are seen yet.
There is no potential for even minor rainfall. This will go down
as one of the driest Oct`s on record at GRI (and likely many other
locations).
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Significant Wx: WSHFT to W 23Z-02Z but with light wind speeds.
This Afternoon: VFR with increasing clouds. SCT CU will form
around 4K ft and lift to 5K ft. Then patchy multi-layered clouds
will increase at or above 10K ft. SE winds 10-15 kts with gusts to
near 20 kts initially will diminish. Expect WSHFT to W at EAR
around 23Z. There could be an isolated shwr or tstm DSNT NE or E
of both terminals. Confidence: High
Tonight: VFR decreasing clouds from W-E. Lgt mainly W winds will
become NW after 06Z. Confidence: High
Wed thru 18Z: VFR. Just a couple shreds of cirrostratus possible
around 25K ft. NW winds increase 12-15 kts. Could see a few gusts
to 20 kts after 14Z. Confidence: High
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
450 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 450 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016
20z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving through the Ohio
Valley. This is providing mostly clear skies, aside from some high
clouds drifting through from the northwest. The cool high to the
north and good sunshine yielded temps ranging from the lower 70s
south to low 60s north this afternoon. Dewpoints, meanwhile, were
able to mix down into the low to mid 30s most places, but many
spots did see some 20s. The winds were generally light and
variable this afternoon.
The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast as they all bring a developing trough into
the Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. This will be accompanied by
a batch of energy passing through the Ohio valley into Thursday
morning. The GFS is slight stronger with this feature than the
ECMWF and Canadian, but actual differences are relatively small.
Accordingly, a general model blend was preferred with a lean
toward the HRRR and NAM12 and significant consideration given to
the dry air aloft (and co-op MOS) that has been resulting in a
larger than forecast diurnal range of late for the area.
Sensible weather will feature another cool and mostly clear night
with light to calm winds. This will set the stage for chilly low
temperatures and likely areas of frost in the deeper valleys.
Patchy dense fog will again be found near the rivers late, as
well, helping keep those spots from seeing much in the way of
frost. The frost is anticipated to be a bit more widespread than
last night so have issued a frost advisory for our eastern 2/3rds
where radiational cooling will be maximized. More sunshine and
winds switching to the southwest will mean a warm day Wednesday
with low to mid 70s anticipated for highs. Attention will then
turn to the, unfortunately drying, cold front inbound for
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Despite the withering of
the model QPF with this, there will be enough elevated instability
and dynamics aloft to yield a stray thunderstorm or two for
mainly northwest parts of the area overnight into Thursday
morning. Have included this in the grids and HWO.
Again started with the CONSShort/ShortBlend for the bulk of the
grids with adjustments to the temps tonight and to a lesser extent
on Wednesday night revolving around terrain differences, as well
as knocking dewpoints down in the afternoon Wednesday. As for PoPs
- did bring them up into the slight chance range Wednesday night -
a bit higher than consensus MOS guidance - as the front starts to
press into the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016
An upper level trough axis will be swinging through the Great Lakes
at the start of the period, as a surface low tracks across the Ohio
Valley. An associated cold frontal boundary will move through the
area Thursday afternoon, bringing scattered showers and a slight
chance of thunder. The remainder of the extended period will likely
remain mild and dry with high pressure parked over the southeastern
CONUS.
High pressure will build into the region by Friday morning, allowing
for valley temps to drop off into the upper 30s/low 40s. However, a
quick return of warm air will take place Friday as the upper ridge
builds into the southeastern US. With the return flow in place,
temperatures should rebound into the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday
afternoon. Well-above normal temperatures are anticipated on
Saturday with most locations reaching the upper 70s, possibly eeking
out 80 degrees in spots. If we hit 80 degrees here at the Jackson
Weather Office, we will tie for the most 80 degree days in October
on record. As high pressure gradually shifts towards the Atlantic
Ocean Sunday through Tuesday, conditions will be dry as high
temperatures reach the mid and upper 70s each day with lows in the
upper 40s/low 50s. Tuesday may be another day that afternoon highs
reach 80 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016
Mainly VFR conditions and light winds will be seen through
Wednesday morning. Some patchy dense valley fog is expected early
this morning along the rivers, but should not impact the TAF
sites. However, as was the case this morning - some of the
helicopter pads - especially the one near Manchester could get
caught up in the dense fog for a time late tonight into dawn
Wednesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ052-060-
069-080-085>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
330 PM CDT TUE OCT 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...
High clouds thinning now just to the east of a weak upper impulse
edging into the high plains. A small cumulus field in eastern New
Mexico has responded to the surface warming in that area, and has
some potential for brief thunder development close to our southwest
corner late this afternoon. Otherwise we are not seeing response
across the border into our Texas counties. An earlier HRRR run was
one of few solutions briefly convecting in this area, but has been
vacant of thunder development in recent hours. The surface based
convectively available energy is significant today, while a small
area of inhibition still was needing removal. Owing to the delayed
surface warming, and lack of solution support, this forecast will
remain void of thunder mention for this evening and overnight.
Clearing skies will follow overnight, while a surface trough with
mild south to southwesterly flow will dominate. Late in the night,
the trough will edge south-southeast with low level flow gradually
veering and drying. A weak cool front will cross our northwest
corner just before sunrise with additional drying and slight
cooling. This front will bisect the area northeast to southwest by
mid morning Wednesday with surface flow turning north to northeast
and perhaps even a few breezier gusts close to 20 mph that might
briefly feel like a real cold front. Minimal thunder chances along
this front in our southeast Wednesday, will leave out for this
forecast with very little solution support. Stout upper level
ridging will build in from the west and clear skies will lead to yet
another above normal temperature day by afternoon. RMcQueen
.LONG TERM...
Fairly benign weather is expected through the extended forecast with
temperatures residing well to the warm side of average. This will
occur as an upper level ridge builds in from the southwest late
week. The ridge will gradually deamplify and shift to the Deep South
next week leaving behind southwesterly flow aloft for West Texas.
Dry conditions will prevail as any embedded disturbances will be
directed up and around the high/region. One shortwave trough
traversing the Midwest Saturday may push a weak cold front toward or
briefly into the CWA late Saturday, but it will quickly retreat back
northward with minimal impacts locally. A similar scenario may
unfold Monday night or Tuesday. Altogether, the extended forecast is
dry and continues to favor the warm side of guidance, as has
generally verified the best as of late.
&&
.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
05/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
308 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Weak surface cyclogenesis taking place in north central Kansas ahead
of a modest wave in the zonal flow aloft. Cirrus has been persistent
but not terribly thick ahead of this wave, and in concert with gusty
south winds, highs have pushed into the mid 80s in some locations.
Despite dewpoints reaching into the lower 60s, an elevated mixed
layer has kept convective inhibition well over 100 J/kg per RAP
analysis.
Concern for convection in/near peak heating continues to wane with
an overall slower trend to the wave and the cap in place. The wave
is still expected to deepen as it passes through Central Plains
tonight into early Wednesday, and with well above normal moisture in
place, should see at least scattered convection develop, with
coverage likely increasing as both moisture and low level jet ramp
up. Lapse rates aloft should be steep enough for around 1000 J/kg of
elevated CAPE along with some shear for minor potential for some
large hail with a few storms. Precip will likely linger in east
central Kansas after sunrise Wednesday, but subsidence behind the
trough quickly builds in by late morning. The modified continental
airmass moving in should only drop highs back into the low to mid
70s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
High pressure gradually drifting eastward from the CWA on Thursday
will allow for one final mild afternoon with highs in the lower to
middle 70s. As the upper ridge amplifies over the central plains by
Friday, the sfc pressure gradient increases southerly winds at 10 to
20 mph sustained throughout the afternoon. In addition, 925 mb temps
are near or above 20 C from all guidance, suggesting lows Friday
morning in the upper 50s with highs in the lower and middle 80s to
be common. Saturday morning lows may also remain pretty mild around
60 degrees, before some high clouds increase and a weak cold front
passes through dry. Areas along and south of I 70 may once again
reach the upper 70s Saturday before the cooler airmass drops highs
back into the lower 70s on Sunday. Extended guidance remains pretty
consistent for Halloween as broad troughing over the northern plains
pushes another cold front through aft 00Z. The cold air lags
somewhat behind the boundary with readings in the upper 70s for
highs Monday and overnight lows into the lower 50s. Shortly
thereafter on Tuesday, GFS becomes the more progressive solution
with a shortwave trough lifting from the southwest Tuesday and
Wednesday. Low end chances for thunderstorms were mentioned since
the ECMWF advertises a dry forecast with the slower progression of
the wave progged to arrive later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Only minor changes to the forecast. Uncertainty on timing of
precipitation remains somewhat high however with a wide range of
possibilities from guidance. Visibilities could reach IFR in the
stronger storms however.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...65