Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/20/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
926 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Broad area of low cloud cover remains over much of western and
central North Dakota and latest HRRR guidance keeps this in for
much of the night. Exception to this will be over the far
southwest where skies look to gradually clear. Concern for that
area may be some patchy fog developing later on, as visibility has
already dropped down some in Baker, Montana. Have addressed each
of these concerns in latest update.
UPDATE Issued at 534 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Light showers continue over the far southwest part of North
Dakota in modest cyclonic flow as a weak short wave passes
through. Expect these showers to taper off early this evening and
shift off to the southeast. Have adjusted precipitation chances to
account for this.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
No forecast highlights in the short term period.
Currently, models have not performed very well at all with low
level stratus today across west and central ND. While an area from
Mountrail County southeast through the southern James River Valley
has scattered out/cleared, all other areas remain overcast. Will
based sky cover forecast for the next several hours on current
satellite and then blend to high res guidance. Models indicate a
bkn sky cover tonight though right now thinking low VFR.
Will keep showers in the forecast southwest this afternoon and
evening with Bowman radar indicating decent returns there at the
moment.
Much warmer Thursday with more sun expected and weak WAA as we
remain in a cyclonic flow pattern until Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
A mid level S/WV trough moving through the Northern Plains will
bring a chance for rain showers to the region Thursday night into
Friday morning. Thereafter a building upper level ridge will
result in a mainly dry weather pattern over the weekend and
through early next week along with a nice moderation in
temperatures, with highs in the 50s & 60s this weekend. Ridge
will then shift east next Monday night transitioning our flow
aloft to southwesterly with increasing chances for precipitation
early to mid week.
Towards the end of next week an increasingly active weather
pattern will eventually bring in cooler temperatures once again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 534 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Areas of MVFR cigs will remain over many parts of western and
central North Dakota through the overnight hours. Improvement to
VFR conditions is expected Thursday morning over all locations.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1022 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm high pressure over the region will weaken Thursday. A cold
front will cross the area Friday morning. An upper-level ridge
over the southeastern states will weaken allowing an upper-level
trough to cross the region Friday through Saturday. Much cooler
and drier air will move in behind the front for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Forecast continues on track with no changes needed.
Evening weather map shows high pressure over the southeastern
states with a frontal boundary extending from Maryland westward
through the Ohio Valley into the Southern Plains. Satellite
imagery shows mostly clear skies across the forecast area
although model time sections do indicate some possible moisture
around 5kft that may result in scattered clouds towards dawn
similar to this morning.
Moisture is a bit more shallow after some strong mixing today
and this may inhibit fog formation over much of the area although
still expect some patchy fog in the river valleys and low lying
areas away from cities. Overnight lows will be around 60 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday: An upper-level ridge over the southeastern states will
begin to weaken Thursday as a trough digs into the Mississippi
Valley. Surface high pressure will also weaken Thursday as a cold
front approaches from the west. With strong insolation and
subsidence...model consensus indicated maximum temperatures well
above normal in the mid to upper 80s.
Thursday night through Friday: Models remain relatively in good
agreement. Two systems will approach the region. One is a potential
tropical low over the eastern Atlantic. The other is a cold front
approaching the area from the west. The cold front will cross the
Midlands and CSRA Friday morning. This front and associated upper
trough digging towards the east coast, will keep the tropical
system well off the Carolina coast. Along the front there may be a
few showers, but moisture will still be limited. Best chance for
rainfall may be across the northern third of the CWA Friday
morning. Do not expect much rainfall across the southern Midlands
and CSRA. Winds associated with the front will become rather gusty
on Friday, with gusts 20 to 25 mph possible.
Friday night through Saturday night: Cooler and even drier air will
make its way back into the region as a deep upper trough moves
through the region. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler as
surface high pressure settles into the region. Lows both Friday
night and Saturday night will fall into the 40s. Afternoon highs on
Saturday will be in the middle 60s north, to around 70 in the
southern CSRA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather, along with more seasonable temperatures are foreseen
through the middle of next week. Another cold front appears to
cross the region Monday into Tuesday. Given limited moisture
associated with the front, little to no rainfall. High
temperatures should warm in to the mid and upper 70s Monday given
warming ahead of the front.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will ridge into the area from the northeast.
Upper ridging over the area will weaken Thursday ahead of the next
upper trough. Nocturnal cooling and light wind may result in fog
or stratus during the early morning hours but believe the chance
is diminished because of shallow moisture and a little mixing
associated with a low-level jet as displayed on model time-height
displays during the 06z to 12z time frame. SREF restriction
probabilities were very low. The HRRR displayed restrictions east
of the forecast area where surface dew point temperatures were
higher. The NAM and GFS MOS have overdone the forecast of fog at
the sites other than AGS and OGB over the past few nights. Expect
similar conditions as last night with IFR fog confined mainly to
the river valley terminals of AGS and OGB. Heating and mixing
should dissipate any fog beginning around 13z. Followed the NAM
and GFS MOS for the wind forecast. Expect wind mainly 5 knots or
less through the period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in scattered
showers Friday. It will be breezy Friday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1032 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold
front moving southeast from Red Wing to Rhinelander early this
afternoon. Temps are in the 60s ahead of the front, and fall back
into the 50s behind it. Some cu has developed along and behind the
boundary, but the widespread overcast conditions reside north of the
U.P. border and farther west into Minnesota. The rest of area is
seeing scattered mid and high clouds overhead, with a more
widespread batch over South Dakota that is struggling to move into
Wisconsin. With no precip expected along or behind the front, sky
and temp trends are the main forecast concerns.
Tonight...The cold front will be exiting eastern WI during the
evening. Little in the way of clouds associated with the front, but
scattered to broken mid and high clouds will continue to pass
overhead before departing overnight. Scattered lake clouds may also
move into far northern WI as 850mb temps fall to -5C over western
Lake Superior. Colder lows with a slight north wind into the low 30s
north to low 40s south.
Thursday...A large scale trough will be moving into the western
Great Lakes above a chilly airmass with brisk northwest winds. With
daytime heating and flow continuing off Lake Superior, should see
plenty of cloud cover develop over northern Wisconsin. Downsloping
should help keep eastern WI partly sunny. As a result, temps will
be cooler over the north, only into the low to mid 40s. Highs over
eastern WI should reach into the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Ridging will become established across the western Great Lakes
region by late this week, bringing a long period of dry weather
that is expected to last through the weekend and into early next
week. The main concern during this period will be temperatures, as
a cold airmass brings overnight lows into the upper 20s to middle
30s Thursday night and Friday night, with daytime highs on Friday
limited to the middle 40s to around 50 degrees. Once this cold
period is overcome, temperatures will slowly rebound during the
weekend and into early next week, with highs on Sunday reaching
the middle to upper 50s.
After the relatively dry, quiet period has passed a powerful low
pressure system will affect the western Great Lakes Tuesday and
next Wednesday. This system will bring the possibility of heavy
rain and some thunderstorms as modest instability advects north
Tuesday night and next Wednesday. There are still significant
model differences regarding the strength, timing and path of this
system so details are uncertain. However it appears more likely
that there will be a period of unsettled weather during this
portion of the extended.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
The main aviation forecast issue continues to be what will happen
to expansive low cloud deck across much of MN and Lake Superior.
It has begun sagging south this evening, and expect that trend to
continue. Weak downslope component into east-central WI will
probably delay low clouds in that area until some convective
cloudiness forms mid-morning tomorrow.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......Skowronski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
906 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
The cold front was over the northwestern part of the state at 9
pm. A ridge of high pressure at the surface stretched across the
northern Gulf of Mexico into SE Texas. The showers and isolated
thunderstorms which affected the area earlier this evening have
almost all dissipated. Only isolated showers were occurring over
Grimes County at this hour.
Latest short range models pretty much agree with the previous
forecast. The major difference was the latest SREF fog
probabilities which were showing the best chances for patchy fog
to be west of the Houston metro area. Otherwise, isolated showers
will begin to affect the marine areas later this evening and the
inland areas overnight tonight.
Tweaked the rain chances and weather for the rest of tonight and
early Thursday morning.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/
AVIATION...
The few remaining showers should end shortly. Generally VFR conds
are expected through 06z with MVFR cigs developing after 06z with
possibly some IFR cigs possible between 08-13z. SREF ensembles
hinting at more fog between 09-12z generally over the western TAF
sites. SREF did not perform well last night so confidence is low.
RAP is hinting at some weak sfc convergence near the coast after
09z so will maintain showers for both KGLS and KLBX. Showers will
persist for much of the morning as the pre-frontal trough moves
across the region with the actual front crossing the region during
the mid afternoon. Winds will shift to the north in the morning
but an increase in speeds will lag until the actual front crosses
the area. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 80 56 77 51 / 10 40 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 74 85 59 78 53 / 20 50 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 84 66 77 64 / 40 50 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...43
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
928 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
.UPDATE...
A mean layer high pressure ridge remains across the Carolinas to
Alabama with relatively moist conditions beneath a subsidence
inversion around 7500 feet per the 00z JAX sounding. Latest IR
imagery shows broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds affecting
parts of northeast FL and extreme SE GA. Radar shows very isolated
shower activity has waned...but a renewed line of mostly light
showers is noted about 25 miles east of Fernandina Beach. For the
update...there is some potential for additional isolated showers
affecting mainly coastal Nassau...Duval and St Johns counties.
Based on current trends and HRRR will keep a 10-20 percent chance
of showers for these areas through Thursday morning. With
stratocumulus probably hanging around and dewpoints
elevated...have adjusted min temps up a few degrees especially
where some coastal clouds are more likely. Still looks like
possible areas of fog but less chance over the eastern zones.
&&
.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR through about 08z...with some chance of MVFR vsby
for TAF inland sites with a better chance of some IFR VSBY at GNV
around 09z-12z. After 13z/14z...sct-bkn cumulus expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Northeast winds around 10-15 kt noted. Current conditions support
latest forecasts so little change in the next CWF update.
RIP CURRENTS: High risk Florida beaches and moderate Georgia
beaches. Elevated risk of rip currents to continue Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Coastal Flood Advisory will remain in place through 5 am Thursday
at this time but may be trimmed back based on latest levels around
Duval county that are just shy of minor flooding.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 60 86 63 81 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 67 82 66 82 / 0 10 0 10
JAX 66 84 64 85 / 10 10 0 10
SGJ 69 83 67 84 / 20 20 10 10
GNV 63 87 62 85 / 0 10 0 10
OCF 63 86 63 84 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Duval-
Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for Clay-Coastal
Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for Waters from
Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60
NM.
&&
$$
Shashy/Peterson/Walker
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
924 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will stall out over the area tonight before
retreating to the north on Thursday. Another, stronger cold front
will cross the area Friday. An upper-level trough will pass
through the area Saturday and high pressure will build into the
region for Sunday. A reinforcing cold front will pass through the
area Monday with high pressure returning for mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few showers have developed over the Shenandoah valley and
northern VA this evening in warm moist advective pattern. Latest
HRRR shows some showers overnight over central and northeast MD.
Will adjust PoPs somewhat based on the latest HRRR. Did raise
temps a few degs tonight especially north where thicker clouds are
likely to keep temps warm.
For Thu...used a 24-hr trend for MaxT with temperatures still
likely to rise into the mid 80s, but 2-4 degs cooler than today.
Still not convinced there will be showers as hi-res ECMWF and
latest HRRR show the area dry through most of the day. Also, cut
down on sky cover grids allowing for more sunshine.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday night will turn out mild with southerly flow as clouds
increase ahead of the approaching low pressure and its attendant
strong cold front. Lows in many spots will stay in the 60s.
Precipitation may reach western locales before dawn but will have
trouble getting further east.
Still some differences between the guidance with the timing of
the cold frontal passage on Friday, but generally its expected
somewhere around dawn west, midday metro, and by late afternoon
far southeast. This will result in a cooler day, with highs likely
in the morning to midday in most of the CWA. Showers look to be
after the front as it takes on more of an `ana-front` structure.
Guidance differs significantly on the amount of rain it drops with
totals of a tenth to more than a half inch depicted, but for now
are leaning low given the rapid movement of the low away from our
region.
This storm will be interacting with some tropical energy and
strengthen significantly as it moves northeast of us, which will
result in some pretty gusty winds late Friday into Saturday. Winds
may approach wind advisory (40 knot) gusts, though odds are not
high on this. Nevertheless, gusts over 30 knots look likely, which
will be blustery. Temps will be much cooler with the cold
advection, with highs Saturday possibly stuck in the 50s across
most of the area, so it will be quite a shock to the system.
Wraparound showers which could even mix with snow in the higher
elevations is a possibility as well across the Allegany Front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build over our region on Saturday
night and into Monday bringing near normal temperatures to the
region. Windy conditions expected Saturday night into Monday due
to the tight gradient between the departing system and the surface
high. Winds should be diminishing on Sunday night, but picking up
slightly with a reinforcing cold front that will push through our
CWA later on Monday with possible showers. Winds will be
decreasing Monday night. Temperatures will be slightly below
normal Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure building behind
front and remaining into Wednesday.
High temperatures during this period will be in the mid 50s to
the 60s, and low temperatures in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR thru this evening, though a stray shower may result in a brief
reduction at MRB/IAD/CHO. Front moving in from the north tonight
may then bring lower cigs/vis across much of the area late tonight
into Thursday, possibly IFR but more likely MVFR. Front lifts
back north by Thursday afternoon with improving conditions.
Conditions drop again Thursday night into Friday as another cold
front crosses the area. MVFR likely with brief IFR possible again.
Returning to VFR by late Friday night but gusty winds from the
northwest may exceed 30 knots Friday night and Saturday.
VFR Conditions expected Saturday night into Monday as high
pressure builds over our region. Windy conditions expected before
a cold front could bring some showers into the region on Monday,
with possible sub-VFR periods. Dry conditions return into Tuesday
behind front with VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA expected thru Thursday night. However, southerly winds
ahead of the approaching cold front may approach SCA levels
Thursday night.
Winds ramp up Friday as a cold front comes through, with SCA
guaranteed and gales looking more likely behind the front. Gales
may continue into Saturday before diminishing a bit by Saturday
night.
Small craft advisory conditions expected Saturday night into
Monday with windy conditions over our region. Winds should be
diminishing Monday night, becoming below 15 kts... therefore no
small craft advisory expected Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding is not likely over the next couple of days.
A potent offshore flow will develop behind a cold front later
Friday through the weekend. Blowout tides are possible during this
time.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Records for today have already been broken at Dulles and BWI
airports. See RER reports for details. Record may be tied again
tomorrow at IAD.
Below is a list of record daily warm temperatures for October
19th and 20th.
Record daily high temperatures
Site 10/19 10/20
DCA 88 (1938) 86 (1969)
BWI 82 (1947)* 87 (1969)
IAD 83 (1991)* 83 (1969)
*also occurred in previous years
Record daily warm low temperatures
Site 10/19 10/20
DCA 65 (1905) 64 (1885)*
BWI 67 (1905) 65 (1910)
IAD 60 (2011) 59 (1993)
*also occurred in previous years
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...IMR/LFR
MARINE...IMR/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR
CLIMATE...DFH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
652 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities through 19.13z.
Lower cigs and visibilities mostly from 19.06z to 19.13z followed by
mostly VFR conditions through 20.00z. Lower MVFR cigs and
visibilities will also be possible in and around isolated showers
and thunderstorms ahead of strong cold front thu afternoon and thu
evening. Winds will be southeast at 4 to 6 knots early this evening
becoming light and variable late this evening through late thu
morning becoming south to southwest at 3 to 6 knots thu afternoon and
early thu evening. A strong northwest wind will develop along and in
the wake of the front late thu night through thu morning. 32/ee
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/
NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...An analysis of upper air features
today show a mid level pressure ridge extending from the Mid-Atlantic
to the northern Gulf. A broad trof axis is bringing lower heights
aloft across the central CONUS. At the surface, forecasters analyze a
surface ridge over the southeast while a quasi-stationary surface
front was draped from off the northeast US mainland, back across the
Ohio River Valley then crossing over into northern Texas.
In the near term, forecast remains governed by the synoptic scale
ridge over the southeast which will maintain a persistence type
forecast. For tonight, with dewpoints well into the 60`s, plenty of
boundary layer moisture coupled with light winds support the
development of overnight fog. Not overly confident we``ll see dense
fog, with advective pre-frontal clouds coming in from the northwest
to mitigate fog coverage but latest high resolution NAM and HRRR
guidance showing a strong signal of potentially widespread dense fog
formation (visibility <= 1/2mile) between midnight and sunrise. Dense
fog advisory may be required on next shift as observational trends
are assessed through the evening. Little change in overnight lows
with lower 60`s interior and 66 to 70 close to the coast.
Heading into the day Thursday, cold front is progged to begin
surging southeast, becoming aligned from across the Appalachians to
off the upper Texas coast by the close of the afternoon. The front,
looking to be knocking on the door-step of the northwest tier of
zones thru the afternoon, brings enough lift for the potential of a
slight chance of storms. Elsewhere, rain chances look very slim to
none. Daytime highs from 84 to 88 for Thursday will be the last day
we see these unseasonably warm temperatures for awhile. :) /10
SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...A major
shortwave trough now pushing east of the Rockies will push a cold
front across the region Thursday night. Lift along this boundary may
be able to develop some isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
early evening hours otherwise only isolated light rainshowers are
expected overnight. Any precipitation will remain light. Cooler,
drier air will follow in the wake of the front along with at times
breezy northerly winds Friday. A big change in temperatures will
follow with afternoon high temperatures remaining in the 70s Friday
and Saturday...closer to normal for this time of year. Temperatures
Friday and Saturday night should range in the 50s along the coast
and 40s inland. /08
LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Deep layer ridging expected
to persist over the region through at least Tuesday so have kept the
forecast dry. The surface high settles in over the southeastern
states so we should at least see a light onshore flow during the
afternoon. Daytime highs will climb into the mid 70s to near 80 on
Sunday then low to mid 80s through Wednesday. An uptick in morning
lows is also anticipated with lows along the coast generally in the
low to mid 50s near the coast and upper 40s to low 50s inland Tuesday
morning and upper 50s to mid 60s near the coast Wednesday morning and
low to mid 50s inland. Models indicate the potential of an upper
level shortwave trough moving through the flow Wednesday but lack of
run to run consistency and agreement between models so will leave
the forecast dry at this time. /08
MARINE...In the wake of a strong cold frontal passage Thursday
night into Friday, a moderate to strong offshore flow develops. Choppy
to rough conditions to develop on area bays and a building trend in
seas is expected over the open Alabama/northwest Florida Gulf
waters. The higher seas are forecast beyond 20 nautical miles out due
to the longer offshore fetch. Small craft advisories will likely be
required Thursday night into Friday. Offshore flow continues into
Saturday, but lessens in strength as axis of a large ridge of high
pressure builds east across the Mid-South. High pressure holds firm
across the southeast and the central Gulf coast Sunday and Monday.
/10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
634 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
The primary surface boundary has lifted northwest of the entire
region this afternoon, which has allowed for plenty of sunshine
over the southern half of the area. Temperatures have climbed into
the upper 80s with dewpoints holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s
over most of the area. Besides breaking a few high temperature
records, this will result in more destabilization than previously
expected.
The bottom line is that a few severe thunderstorms will be
possible mainly over the northern half of our southeast Missouri
counties late this afternoon and into the early evening.
Marginally severe hail and a few damaging wind gusts will be
possible.
Precipitable water values will be near the 99th percentile
climatologically, so heavy rainfall will be a concern tonight and
Thursday. However, the storms should move at a decent clip, so
the primary heavy rainfall/flash flooding concern will be in areas
that experience training late this afternoon and tonight. This
will be most likely along the I-64 corridor in southern Illinois.
The front has pushed farther north than expected today, and
subsequently the 12Z models and later runs of the HRRR are slower
to bring the cold front back through the area. It will not likely
reach KCGI and KEVV until after 06Z tonight. With the primary
convective development tonight expected behind the front, much of
the area may end up dry through the evening. Will rapidly spread
the likely to categorical PoPs southeast through the area late
tonight. Thursday morning should be the wettest period for most
of the forecast area. The models are shifting the precipitation
east of the area by 00Z Friday. The remainder of the short term
forecast is dry.
Temperatures will be rather mild tonight with some cold advection
in the northwest late. However, there will be little recovery
Thursday, so it will feel drastically cooler with highs in the
60s, clouds and gusty northwest winds. Winds will stay up Thursday
night, so lows will be near normal, but the surface high will
settle overhead late Friday and Friday night. Friday will see
below normal temperatures despite full sun, and Friday night will
be see the coolest readings. Most of the area will be near 40,
with some locations dropping into the upper 30s. Dewpoints are
expected to be in the upper 30s throughout the area, so lows may
trend even lower with time. This could be the first potentially
frosty night of the fall.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Above average confidence in the extended period. Recent operational
deterministic and ensemble mean runs are in agreement for the
general synoptic pattern over the weekend and through the beginning
of next week.
An H500 ridge moves in, bringing NW flow early Saturday behind the
deep, departing H500 trough. Daytime temperatures will be a bit
cooler than normal Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. May
see 70 degrees in some locations, depending on how quickly southerly
sfc flow returns.
For Sunday through Tuesday, our forecast area remains in warm
southerly sfc flow and relatively dry northwest flow aloft. With a
clipper passing well to our northeast and high pressure set up in
the Southeast through this period, we will likely see a relatively
breezy Sunday. Overall this pattern means our forecast will stay
mild and dry through this period. Starting in the middle to the end
of next week, we start seeing hints of the next potential rain
chances, but uncertainty is still great as model solutions diverge
significantly regarding a deepening trough along the West Coast.
Temperatures bottom out Saturday morning with lows near 40 degrees.
Temperatures for Sunday through the middle of next week will be
slightly above normal, with highs in the lower to middle 70s, and
lows in the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
With the approach and passage of a cold front, VFR cigs/vsbys are
expected to deteriorate to MVFR in addition to SHRA/TSRA through
the middle part of the period. Conditions are expected to improve from
west to east toward the latter half of the period. Pre-frontal southerly
winds AOB 10 knots will veer around to the northwest/north and
increase to 10-15 knots with gusts just over 20 knots behind the
front.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...BP2
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
923 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move southward through the region today
and tonight, before returning to the north as a warm front on
Thursday. Low pressure developing over the Ohio Valley will pass
to the north on Friday, dragging a strong cold front through the
region. At the same time, another area of low pressure will move
northward in the Atlantic and merge with the front in New England.
High pressure then builds in from the south as low pressure
deepens to our north over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
9:30 pm update:
Cloudcover will be slow to increase overnight ahead of a low
pressure moving northeast along a frontal boundary from the Ohio
Valley eastward across our region. This frontal boundary has led
to a sharp divide between a seasonable and a very humid airmass.
This will make a challenging forecast for dewpoints in the
overnight, dewpoints were raised quite a bit along the Jersey
coast based on the latest position of the front. The HRRR and RAP
are both showing enough moisture overruning the boundary to
develop some scattered showers toward daybreak along the Eastern
Shore that move northward during the morning hours on Thursday.
QPF continues to look very light overall. Temperatures also
started off the evening warmer than modeled but the slow increase
of cloudcover may compensate for the warmer start this evening.
Previous still applies:
Cold front through much of PA and into central NJ. With ridging
along the Mid-Atlantic coast, and high pressure anchored over the
Southeast U.S., it will be hard for that front to make much
southward progression tonight, but it should get through much of NJ
before stalling out across the Delmarva, most likely just north of
MD/DE and extreme S NJ.
Tonight, H5 trough with several strong shortwaves will dig into the
central U.S., and this combination will allow weak surface low
pressure currently over the Midwest to intensify as it lifts into
the OH Valley. As that low lifts to the north and east, the
stationary front over the Delmarva will begin to lift back to the
north as a warm front late tonight.
Latest model QPF fields keep much of the CWA dry, with only some
light precip encroaching into western zones late in the period.
Since there is not much support for precip across the region, will
go ahead and forecast dry conditions, with slight chance PoPs moving
into the Lehigh Valley and Pocono Mountains towards daybreak.
Clouds ahead of the low will spread into the region tonight, and
this should inhibit the development of fog.
Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 50s across far northern
zones to the low 60s across southern zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Deepening H5 trough will continue to dig into the Midwest and then
into the Great Lakes region throughout the day Thursday. Low
pressure continues to intensify over the OH Valley, and will lift
to the north and east throughout the day, mainly lifting into
western NY/PA. This will also continue to lift that warm front north
through the region.
In terms of precip, the heaviest of the rain will remain well to the
west, around the center of the low. But ahead of that low, and along
the warm front, rain will develop over eastern PA and into northern
NJ. Most precip will be light, and there is the possibility that
DE/MD, and most of NJ will be caught in the dry slot and not see
much, if any, precip. The bulk of the rain across the CWA will be
over the Lehigh Valley, Pocono Mountains, and into northern NJ,
where up to 1/4 inch QPF is possible.
With that warm front lifting to the north, southerly winds will
usher a warm airmass into the region. Northern areas will not be
quite as warm as southern areas, mainly due to rainfall, and highs
will top off in the low to mid 60s there. Temps will generally warm
through the 70s through SE PA and most of NJ, and will be around 80
across DE/MD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the start of the extendd pd, a complex wx scenario will be
setting up. A strong cdfnt will be approaching from the w Thu
night and low pres will be movg nwd in the Atlc. Attm, it appears
that the bulk of the precip with the cdfnt will stay to our w, but
the fropa will occur Fri or Fri eve. At the same time, the low
over the Atlc will merge with the front and move nwd and rapidly
intensify over New Eng.
So, it looks like there will be some rain chcs beginning Thu
night, with the best chcs on Fri and then tapering off Fri night,
though its psbl there could be some lingering pops into Sat AM,
especially n.
Then, the next story will be the gusty nw wind Sat into Sat night
before subsiding on Sun. The pgrad between the aforementioned low
and high pres overt the sern states will make for a stiff nw wind
that make it feel even colder than it is and with temps that will
struggle out of the 50s both Sat and Sun it will be a sharp
change, especially with the unseasonably warm wx we have had.
The high pres will then build in for the start of next week and
bring dry wx with temps at or slightly below seasonal values.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Cold front continues to slowly work its way south through the
region, and then will return north as a warm front on Thursday as
low pressure passes to the north and west.
VFR forecast for the rest of the afternoon and through tonight.
Not expecting much, if any, rain until after 12Z Thursday. CIGs
gradually lower to MVFR over KABE/KRDG by 12Z, and then MVFR CIGs
will continue to spread east through 18Z Thursday. Rain will
develop first over western terminals, and will spread east
Thursday morning. Possible that KMIV/KACY/KILG will remain dry
through the TAF period, and conditions at those terminals my
remain VFR through 18Z.
NW winds less than 10 KT, veering to the NE 5 KT or less through
this evening. Winds become E-SE 5-10 KT Thursday morning.
OUTLOOK...
Thu night through Fri night...SHRA developing Thu night, becoming
more widespread into Friday, especially n, then tapering off
Friday night. MVFR conditions likely, with the chance for IFR and
lower. Moderate confidence.
Sat through Sun...Some MVFR psbl erly Sat, especially n, then
mainly VFR. NW winds with 25-35 KT gusts psbl. Moderate to high
confidence.
Mon...VFR. High Confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions on tap through tonight.
A warm front lifts north across the waters on Thursday. Gusts to 20
KT possible on northern ocean waters in the afternoon, but
conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.
OUTLOOK...
Thu night through Fri afternoon...Forecast winds and seas below
SCA criteria. Scattered showers Thu thru Fri.
Fri night through Sun...A strong cdfnt passes across the waters
Friday night and strengthening low pressure moves into ern Canada
with high pres building to the sw. Tight pressure gradient
develops over the weekend with winds gusting to at least 30 KT
with the potential for gale force wind gusts, especially Fri night
thru erly Sat night, then wind subsiding to SCA on Sun.
Sun night and Mon...Winds and seas will drop back below SCA
criteria.
&&
.CLIMATE...
The following sites tied or set daily record high temperatures
today (Wednesday, 10/19)
New RecordOld Record
Allentown, PA 84 82 (1963)
Trenton, NJ 86 83 (1963)
Philadelphia, PA 86 80 (1947)
Atlantic City, NJ 86 80 (1991)
Wilmington, DE 87 81 (1963)* record tied
Georgetown, DE8681 (1953)
Warmth of this magnitude seen yesterday (and potentially again
today) was/is a rare occurrence for this late in the year:
For Allentown, the only other year that recorded a high
temperature of at least 85 degrees this late in the calendar year
was 1947. In 1947, the high was 85 degrees on the 21st and 23rd of
October. Climate records at Allentown go back to 1922.
Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday (10/20).
THU OCT 20
Mount Pocono, PA 75 in 1963
Reading, PA 80 in 1947/1953/1969
Allentown, PA 78 in 1936
Trenton, NJ 80 in 1969
Philadelphia, PA 80 in 1916/1938
Atlantic City, NJ 85 in 1987
Wilmington, DE 82 in 1969
Georgetown, DE 83 in 1953
Monthly average temperatures are projecting 3 degrees or so above
normal, which would rank in the top 15 warmest Octobers at
Philadelphia and Allentown. This is stated with the usual mid
month uncertainty. What we do know is that the warmth of this week
will virtually lock in an above normal month, especially since the
pattern for the last week of October does not indicate any lengthy
period of below normal temperatures.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Gaines/MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Nierenberg/MPS
Marine...Nierenberg/MPS
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Climate...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
821 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A front extended from New England through the Ohio Valley to a low
over the Southern Plains. This low will track across the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys by Friday morning and will push a strong cold
front across much of the eastern United States Thursday night and
Friday. High pressure build in behind the low on Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...
No significant changes needed at this time. Made some minor
adjustments to pops across the north as isolated showers have
developed just across the RNK CWA border in the LWX CWA/Central VA
along the stalled frontal boundary. HRRR indicates that these may
persist for a couple more hours, then dissipate. Not expecting
anything elsewhere overnight and in general rain chances decrease
overnight, not increase.
Temperatures generally on track after a hot day with temperatures
in the 80s to near 90!
As of 325 PM EDT Wednesday...
Little change in the 500MB pattern is expected tonight with the
upper ridge over the southeast United States. Heights begin to fall
on Thursday. Surface front stalled from the Ohio Valley to a low
over the Southern Plains will lift north as warm front late tonight
and on Thursday while the low crosses through the Ohio Valley.
Clouds along the front will cover some of the forecast area north of
a Lewisburg to Lynchburg line tonight...before lifting north out of
the area by Thursday morning. Models were in decent agreement with
the timing of clouds and precipitation for Thursday afternoon, so
have slowed down arrival time of the probability of precipitation in
the west until after 5PM.
Temperatures will be mild overnight. Stayed close to lows from
Wednesday or a couple of degrees warmer. Thursday will be the final
day of above normal temperatures. Enough sun to again have a sharp
rise in temperatures in the morning, but afternoon clouds in the
west will limit much additional heating. Went slightly below
guidance over the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...
Digging short wave energy will sharpen the upper trof considerably as
it approaches the region from the west and push a strong cold front
through the area. With much of the flow parallel to the front and best
dynamics shearing off to our north it will be a slow FROPA west to east
from late Thursday night through Friday morning, respectively. This
will give us gradually deteriorating conditions through early Thursday
night with the best chances for precipitation looking to hold off until
after Midnight for most of the area. Will also include a slight chance
for embedded thunder mainly west as steeper lapse rates aloft may tap
some of the dynamic energy before it shears off to our north to boost
convective elements a bit. As a large area of high pressure over the
Mississippi valley ushers in significantly colder air behind the front,
the low level flow will become energized and make for blustery
conditions for Friday and into the weekend. There will also be the
prospect for the first snowflakes of the season Friday night and
possibly again on Saturday night in upslope flow at the higher
elevations west of the Blue Ridge but nothing of any significance
expected. On a related note, low temperatures at or below freezing may
well end the growing season for some higher elevations west of the Blue
Ridge Friday night.
Expect temperatures west of the Ridge to be falling throughout Friday,
then begin falling across the piedmont by the afternoon. Highs on
Saturday will only be in the upper 40s/lower 50s west to around 60
east, with the blustery wind making it feel even colder.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...
The upper pattern will be trending toward reestablishment of an
upper ridge over the eastern US through the middle of next week.
This will generally keep our weather quiet and dry through the
period.
Return flow around high pressure to our south will push some warmer
temperatures into the region for Sunday and Monday. A fast moving
short wave will zip through the Great Lakes region and drive a low
through New England. This will swing a weak cold front through the
region later on Monday afternoon with any precipitation expected to
remain off to our north. Cooler high pressure will then build in on
Tuesday and take up a wedge position east of the Appalachians by
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...
A stalled frontal boundary was evident from northern WV through
northern/central VA. This front will return north as warm front
Thursday. High pressure aloft will gradually weaken through
Thursday as a deepening upper trough and associated strong cold
front sweep through the region Thursday night into Friday.
Generally VFR conditions are expected to continue through this TAF
valid period. All models suggest that associated frontal
convection/precipitation will not reach the western part of the
CWA until just after 00Z Fri. The air mass in advance of the front
is very stable with unseasonably warm temperatures aloft providing
a strong cap on convection as well as clouds. Precipitation
associated with the front will largely be post-frontal, not pre-
frontal. Thus, will not introduce any precipitation this TAF valid
period.
With respect to clouds, model soundings indicate a strong
inversion around the 850mb-800 mb layer, resulting in continued
SCT cloud development in the 050-070 layer. This should be the
case again Thursday, becoming BKN late in the day western areas as
the frontal system approaches from the west. Cigs are expected to
remain mostly VFR through the TAF valid period.
KBCB was the only TAF site to observe fog Wed morning, so am
reluctant to advertise much more given very warm temperatures and
expected T/Td spreads. However, Td values have also increased into
the 60s throughout much of the CWA, so the potential for a brief
period of MVFR-IFR BR does yet exist for Thu morning in the 08Z-
13Z time frame.
Winds mostly calm or light SSW-SSE overnight, becoming SW 7-10kts
after 14Z Thu, with low end gusts possible KBLF, KBCB, and KROA by
mid to late afternoon.
Medium to high confidence in cigs/vsybs through the TAF valid
period.
Medium to high confidence in wind direction/speed through the TAF
valid period.
Extended aviation discussion...
Showers, perhaps an isolated thunderstorm western areas before
02Z, will arrive in the mountains after 00Z/8PM Thursday and
spread east across the region. The best chance of precipitation
will be from midnight Thursday night through noon on Friday. This
will be the most likely period of MVFR to IFR ceilings and
visibilities.
The strong cold front will move through the region from west to
east, mainly in the 06Z Fri to 15Z Friday time frame. A southwest
to northwest wind shift is expected to occur Thursday night across
the region with gusty winds behind the front continuing into
Friday night and possibly Saturday. Areas of sub-VFR conditions
will likely accompany the front and precipitation.
A return to VFR conditions is expected for most areas Friday
night into Saturday. The exception will be western parts of the
region where a healthy northwest upslope flow, and lingering low
level moisture, will prolong an IFR/MVFR ceiling during this time
period. Even the mountain areas will become VFR again for Sunday
and Monday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 815 PM EDT Wednesday...
Record maximum temperatures...
New record max temperatures were set at Blacksburg and
Danville today with 83 and 86 degrees, respectively.
Record temperatures are possible again one last day, namely
Thursday.
Oct 19
Location Record Max
Bluefield.....81 in 1984
Danville......85 in 1953
Lynchburg.....88 in 1938
Roanoke.......91 in 1938
Blacksburg....80 in 1991
Oct 20
Location Record Max
Bluefield.....79 in 1993
Danville......88 in 1984
Lynchburg.....85 in 1993
Roanoke.......84 in 2005
Blacksburg....82 in 1985
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS/MBS
AVIATION...RAB
CLIMATE...AMS/RAB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
942 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70 appear reasonable,
except far north sections where rain cooled air may lower daybreak
temps. latest HRRR running about an hour faster with onset but
not enough to affect pops. No update attm but zones to be resent
at 1 am to change wording for increasing pops scenario
overnight./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 721 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Have lowered pops overnight across northern portions of the area.
Convection will be mostly concentrated near frontal boundary,
which is progged to enter se ok well after midnight, prompting
the decline in pops to only isold durg the eve, except 30 percent
pops along and north of I-30. Pops for the post midnight period
only required small adjustments./VII/.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 711 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the evening and a good
portion of the overnight hours...although areas of 5-10kft cigs
should persist and actually expand over much of E TX/SW AR/SE OK
after 06Z ahead of a cold front that will begin to approach the
region from the NW. Isolated -SHRA ongoing attm over portions of
Deep E TX near/W of LFK may linger through early evening before
diminishing...but isolated -SHRA redevelopment will be possible
overnight across portions of NW LA/SW AR well ahead of the front.
However...low confidence and coverage precludes mention at this
point in the SHV/TXK terminals. The cold front will begin to shift
SE across NE TX/SW AR between 09-12Z...with sct convection near
and behind the front expected to shift SE with the front through
12Z Thursday. Given the expected instability and extent of frontal
convergence...have inserted VCTS mention for the TYR/GGG terminals
only for a brief time from 11-15Z...with VCSH mention elsewhere as
the convection continues to weaken given the loss of frontal
forcing. May see spotty IFR/low MVFR cigs develop ahead of the
front across the region late...with these cigs developing
near/behind the frontal passage. Should start to see these low
cigs lift/scatter out from NW to SE by late morning/early
afternoon...with the residual AC/cirrus thinning out as well with
the much drier air mass advecting in from the NNW. SSW winds 5kts
or less tonight will become NNW and increase to 10-15kts with
gusts to 25kts behind the fropa Thursday...with the higher gusts
expected over E TX/extreme SW AR/Wrn LA. /15/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Well the last warm day for a while panned out about like yesterday
with another 91 here in Shreveport anyway. Other locales are in
the mid to upper 80 range at present areawide. Rain is a little
early as there is a weak disturbance filtering a bit a lift over
E TX and lo and behold the sea has just emerged on region mosaics
approaching Leesville and Alexandria. We will keep sparse coverage
wise to 20 percent, but even overnight some streamer showers will
likely develop ahead of all the forcing with a half decent push of
moisture out of the Western Gulf over the next several hours. Our
VAD is showing due S up to 4kft now and while shallow it will only
deepen. Sfc wind directions are shifting back to the SE even to
our West so this rich moisture has to go up and out. WPC QPF is
meager, but may improve overnight, panning out for a lot of spots
if the front is early and we can sustain an overrun effect into
the remain heating early tomorrow. Hopefully enough rainfall for
us to keep the burn bans in check. The cold air advection will
make a hard sweep mid to late day and drive the rain (s) until
later in the month. The air mass has held out on GFS nearby with
1027mb and the Euro has come around a bit more with 1025mb
briefly. Weekend is looking fantastic. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 77 54 72 / 40 60 10 0
MLU 69 79 52 72 / 30 60 10 10
DEQ 66 75 47 72 / 60 30 0 0
TXK 67 75 51 71 / 50 50 10 0
ELD 67 74 50 69 / 40 60 10 0
TYR 67 75 53 73 / 50 60 0 0
GGG 69 77 52 72 / 50 60 10 0
LFK 70 79 53 74 / 20 50 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
726 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
A disjointed cold front has begun accelerating south through the
TX caprock and western Oklahoma towards west central Texas. As the
front moves south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
developing along and ahead of the front just north of our area.
These showers and thunderstorms will eventually move south into
our area later tonight. As they move south, they will likely lose
some of their strength becoming more showery as they approach the
southern four sites. Winds will also shift to the north as the
front moves through, initially at speeds near 10 knots, increasing
as the front drives farther south to around 15 knots with gusts to
around 25 knots. MVFR CIGs between 1000 and 2000 feet are likely
for a few hours behind the front as well. Models indicate these
low clouds scattering out by mid to late morning, giving way to
partly cloudy to clear skies for the rest of the day. 20
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)
It has been another warm day across West Central Texas with highs
in the mid and upper 80s, but that still makes it 5-10 degrees
cooler than the record readings from Tuesday for some locations.
All eyes on the cold front now moving through the Panhandle, where
temperatures are in the 60s as of 3 PM. Front should reach the
northern Big Country shortly before midnight, the Abilene and
Sweetwater areas shortly after midnight, and then race south to
along I-10 by sunrise. As we have mentioned in precious days,
forcing for convection looks to come mainly from the front itself,
which is something the models often have some difficulty handling.
The mesoscale HRRR and the TTU-WRF show scattered convection,
mainly across the eastern half of the area, and will use this as a
first guess for convection tonight. Already carrying chance PoPs
and will boost these slightly for the far eastern portions of the
area around Brownwood.
Convection may linger into Thursday morning across the southern
half of the area, but should be gone pretty quickly. Much cooler
with highs in the low to mid 70s. This is based on the idea that
morning stratus behind the front dissipates as drier air works its
way into the area. If this doesn`t happen, then highs may need to
be adjusted down a few degrees.
LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Post-frontal morning lows on Friday will be in the mid to upper
40s as upper high pressure and dry weather builds over the area
from the west. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 70s with
temperatures Saturday through Wednesday warming into the upper 70s
to the lower 80s...normal highs for this time of year are in the
upper 70s. Morning lows will be in mid 50s on Monday with lows in
the lower 60s by Tuesday morning...normal lows being in the lower
50s.
Dry weather will persist through mid-week. The upper level ridge
will broaden over the central states on Monday with the ridge axis
slowly moving over the eastern states by mid-week. Low to mid-
level moisture will begin building back over the forecast area
Sunday through mid-week. Precipitation chances should remain west
of the forecast area through the first half of next week...along
the dryline that will stretch from far West Texas northeast across
southeastern New Mexico and into the northern Panhandle.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 57 72 47 73 / 40 10 0 0
San Angelo 59 74 46 75 / 30 20 0 0
Junction 61 72 46 74 / 30 20 0 0
Brownwood 60 73 46 73 / 50 20 0 0
Sweetwater 57 72 49 73 / 40 5 0 0
Ozona 60 73 46 74 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
407 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Strengthening surface low pressure system has started bringing widespread
rain to the North Country and will continue to do so through
Sunday. Occasionally heavy rainfall expected, especially this
evening into early Friday, especially in the St Lawrence Valley
and Western Adirondacks. As the front pushes east of the area by
early next week a return to seasonably cooler weather is expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 343 PM EDT Thursday...Rain showers are making their way
through the North Country. Expect a short break late this
afternoon before showers resume at a much stronger and widespread
pace as the next band of moisture south of Lake Ontario moves
quickly into the CWA.
The 500mb trough continues to dig south and east over the central
USA. The rain has been slightly more widespread, mainly in the St
Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks but Western VT is also seeing
precip moving through rather quickly from the SW. The main
question remains how far north and east it will spread before the
deepening trough and surface low riding up the frontal boundary
causes area of rain to pivot north and west sometime on Friday.
The HRRR continues to have the best handle on the near term precip
for the St Lawrence Valley, have adjusted the PoPs and QPF
slightly to show the heightened band of precip making it`s way
into VT.
Strong low level deformation associated with front moves into St
Lawrence later this afternoon and into tonight, leading to
heavier rainfall for Nrn NY overnight, before weakening on
Friday. Another consideration for Friday is sub- tropical system
weakening as it heads north far off the Carolina coast, but
moisture looks to get absorbed or wrapped into the low affecting
the Northeast, and could result in resurgence of heavier precip
over eastern VT late Friday into Friday night, per the 00Z ECMWF.
This may be dependent on when the 500mb trough becomes more
neutral or negatively tilted late Friday.
Winds another concern as strong low level jet enters the region
this afternoon. Southerly jet of 40-55kts at 850mb stays over the
North Country through Friday. This will lead to strong winds
across the higher terrain. Best chances for strong winds to mix
into the valleys would be early Friday as the precip shield pivots
slightly NW, allowing for breaks in precip over VT. Have gusts up
to 15-25kts across most of the area on Friday, before the surface
low tracks over the area.
In summary, cloudy and wet pattern expected throughout the near
term with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s today as we
remain in the warm sector. Tonight temperatures remain mild in the
mid 40s to upper 50s. Forecast max temperatures will be very tricky
on Friday as the surface low and associated front traverse across
the North Country. Timing of FROPA will dictate wind shift of NW-N
and colder air filtering in, especially through the valleys and
lower terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 406 PM EDT Thursday...Forecast highlight of the period
continues to be unsettled conditions and our first mixed
precipitation event with the challenge being timing of heaviest
QPF and transition from liquid to frozen form. Deep mid/upper
level trough shifting out of the Great Lakes Friday night becomes
negatively tilted and eventually closes off over the North Country
by Saturday morning. Meanwhile at the surface, weak low pressure
moving northeast along the frontal wave interacts with a broad
area of low pressure currently northeast of the central Bahamas,
developing a robust surface low over VT/NH/ME. The result for
Friday night is that the best low level deformation remains across
northern New York with widespread rains continuing, while points
eastward will be affected by a mid-level dry slot with less QPF
expected.
As the surface low intensifies, the system becomes vertically
stacked as it shifts north to the vicinity of Quebec City by days
end Saturday. Low/mid level flow shifts to the northwest, but
strong low level cold air advection lags a bit compared to
previous model runs. This difference in timing amongst the latest
hi-res CAMs and global models presents some issues in regards to
ptype transition Saturday afternoon as conditions become favorable
for upslope precipitation to develop as the 700mb low sits just
north of the CWA. Currently I`ve offered a blended approach which
brings in colder air Saturday night with the transition from rain
to snow mainly occurring above 1500 feet with several inches of
snow likely at the highest summit peaks. At the surface below 1500
feet, a dusting to perhaps an inch is possible, with basically
nothing in the deeper Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys.
Additionally as a strong low level jet of 30-40kts develops, winds
will be increasingly gusty Saturday afternoon and night, gusting
to 20-30 mph, mainly across northern New York.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...The long term pattern will feature a general
mid/upper level trof across the ne conus supporting below normal
temperatures and terrain focused precip. Upslope parameters still
look very favorable thru 18z Sunday with deep 850 to 500mb
moisture and strong northwest flow of 35 to 50 knots...enhancing
lift along the northern Dacks and western slopes. Additional qpf
amounts will be a tenth to two tenths with highest amounts from Mt
Mansfield to Jay Peak. Based on sounding profiles snow levels
should be near the bases at 12z around 1500 feet...but lifting
above 2000 feet before tapering off by 18z Sunday afternoon.
Expecting only a minor additional snow accumulation. Progged 850
mb temps between -3 to -5c support highs only in the 20s mountains
to mid/upper 40s warmer valleys.
Large scale pattern supports additional free refills of mountain
snow showers on Monday into Weds...as moisture and short wave energy
rotates around mid/upper level trof across eastern Canada. The
cyclonic flow through all levels will promote favorable upslope flow
with terrain focused precip. Have mentioned high chance pops for
mountains and slight chance elsewhere for Sunday Night into Weds.
Progged 850mb temps stay below 0c and actually get colder during the
early part of next week with values between -7c and -9c. Little too
early for detailed snowfall amounts and qpf values...but would
expect the mountains to stay white for through mid week. Eventually
mid/upper level trof lifts and zonal flow aloft develops with temps
returning closer to normal...for Thursday. Next system arrives on
Thursday night into Friday with additional chances for precip.
Overall temps are in the 20s to mid 30s mountains to mid 40s valleys
with lows mainly in the lower 20s mountains to lower 30s valleys.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12z Friday...VFR conditions will give way to MVFR and IFR
for Western stations. Rain is moving into the region and is
overall light with embedded heavier spots. Expect cigs to lower
to MVFR in the next few hours for MSS/SLK and late afternoon for
PBG and BTV. Rain will be heavy at times, with MVFR/brief IFR
possible, especially in the overnight hours. Widespread MVFR
expected after to persist 00Z/Friday and persisting throughout the
overnight.
Light Southeasterly winds will give way to gustier winds after 00Z
at 10-20 knots. There looks to be a lull in the early morning
hours which could open the door for wind shear conditions at all
stations except KRUT/KMSS between 09Z-11Z.
Outlook 18z Friday through Monday...
18z Friday through 00z Monday: A prolonged period of unsettled
conditions is expected with widespread MVFR/IFR in periods of
rain.
00z Monday through 00z Tuesday: A mix of VFR/MVFR...with VFR/IFR
possible in showers.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...A widespread and long duration
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with amounts near 4 inches across the
St Lawrence Valley from tonight through Sunday. There will be
some breaks throughout the event, especially across portions of
Vermont. Given most of the region is in moderate to severe
drought...we are not anticipating any widespread hydro issues.
However...some minor urban and street flooding is possible
associated with the heavier rainfall rates on Friday with leaves
clogging storm drains. Otherwise...some modest rises in local
rivers and streams are likely this weekend...but no widespread
flooding is anticipated. The latest guidance from the NERFC brings
Ausable River near minor flood stage by Saturday Afternoon.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/MV
NEAR TERM...KGM/MV
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...MV
HYDROLOGY...Taber/KGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
539 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Temperatures are the main issue for early Thursday morning. As
usual there is plenty of variance between he NAM/WRF and RAP-
HRRR solutions for early Thursday. Current thinking is a few
locations, especially the lower lying areas may touch freezing
mark briefly with most broad areas remaining in the mid 30s.
South winds should be steady and light and a frost advisory has
been posted across portion of the western forecast area. Much
warmer temperatures in the low to mid 70s are likely Thursday
afternoon with abundant insolation and gusty afternoon winds
nearing 30 knots at times from Liberal to Hays and eastward. The
Syracuse-Johnson areas will remain closer to the surface trough
through the day and the winds will remain light.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Highs will rise into the low 80s for the weekend as a strong
upper ridge develops across the mid section of the country. A
chance for a short wave that affects the central plains exists
around the middle of late part of next week, with large
uncertainty in numerical model placement of forcing mechanisms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
VFR conditions are expected. As surface high pressure moves east,
a trough of low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies.
Light northeast winds become south after midnight, then increase
by mid to late morning to 15-28kt.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 73 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 36 75 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 38 76 42 84 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 36 75 41 83 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 37 72 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
P28 40 70 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
Friday for KSZ043-044-061>063-074-075.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
604 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a large
high pressure system stretching from central Canada southward to the
Great Plains. Upper troughing is moving over the western Great
Lakes, with cold advection continuing off of Lake Superior
contributing to a widespread cu field. Partial clearing is
occurring over western WI, and some of this clearing should push into
parts of central WI later this afternoon. With north flow
continuing tonight into Friday, cloud trends are the main forecast
concern.
Tonight...High pressure will be slowly moving east over the northern
Mississippi Valley. Northerly winds will continue on the eastern
flank of the surface high, and produce clouds off Lake Superior.
Some clouds will likely dissipate over parts of eastern and central
with the loss of daytime heating. But then may see a surge of clouds
southward over central WI late. Low temps should range through
the 30s with a few upper 20s possible in the cold spots of north-
central WI.
Friday...The surface ridge axis will move across the state. As
light winds back to the west through the day, should see early
morning clouds retreat northward some, but think thermal troughing
should still lead to a persistent cu field over northern and
northeast WI. So will go with partly to mostly cloudy skies for the
morning, then increasing sunshine for the afternoon over central WI.
Temps near todays readings.
.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Northwest flow will continue this weekend as a shortwave tracking
through the northern Great Lakes brings a small chance for showers
across the extreme northern cwa on Sunday afternoon. The models
seem to have converged on a solution in targeting this time period
which is coincident with peak heating, which when combined with
some added moisture from the lakes, should lead to better chances
than a nighttime window.
Other than the brief chance for rain across the north Sunday
afternoon, the weather should be relatively quiet through early
next week. The next chance for widespread rain does not arrive
until later next week when a more active pattern emerges for the
middle part of next week. The first chances arrive late Monday
night and into Tuesday as a warm front lifts north across the
western Great Lakes with a surface low tracking to our south on
Wednesday night. Although the models differ on the exact placement
of this low, the timing is in the ballpark. Also this run with the
low to the south the warm air does not seem to intrude as far
north with very little instability to speak of this far north.
Therefore will remove thunder from the forecast next week as the
best instability remains to the south. The main concern this run
is any further southward jog of this system to the south would
push the best rain chances further south, with smaller chances or
a dry forecast across the north in this scenario. At this point
will stay with the superblend and refine further in subsequent
forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Low cloud trends are the main aviation forecast issue. Cloud deck
across the area is rather solid and not all that cellular looking
on satellite, suggesting it won`t dissipate rapidly after sunset.
But there will probably be a slow decrease in clouds, especially
in those portions of east-central/northeast Wisconsin where the
northwest flow will have a weak downslope component. Cloud bases
will also probably lower overnight, probably dropping to MVFR at
RHI by morning.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......Skowronski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
458 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal boundary and a developing low pressure
center will bring wet weather and cool onshore flow to the region
through Friday night. On Saturday...the low will gradually lift
north into Quebec. On the backside of this low...colder air will
arrive on brisk northwest winds for the latter part of the weekend
and early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Update...Have mainly adjusted PoP based on latest observations and
radar trends. Recent HRRR runs seem to have a fair handle on
precip trends tonight...and so I leaned the forecast in this
direction. That would mostly have rnfl coming in waves
tonight...with the first batch moving thru at this hour. The next
wave comes in from the S around midnight as onshore...Sly flow
increases...followed by the heaviest round Fri. The mtns should
see fairly continuous PoP until Fri morning...when warm front
lifts into Canada.
Previous discussion...At 18z...a 1027 millibar high was centered
near the Bay of Fundy. A cold front extended from western Quebec
southward through the eastern Great Lakes. A second boundary
extended from the mid Atlantic southward through the Mississippi
valley with a series of weak waves riding along it. For
tonight...the surface high will quickly exit into the maritimes.
Warm air advection clouds and light precipitation was entering the
forecast area from the west. Expect amounts will be light tonight
with strengthening onshore flow contributing some drizzle and fog
by later tonight. Rather uniform lows with onshore flow and cloud
cover with readings in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday...digging shortwave energy with the upper trough going
negative tilt before closing off over the mid Atlantic states by
Saturday morning. At the surface...slow-moving cold front with strengthening
inflow off the Atlantic and a developing surface low tapping subtropical
moisture. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity as we head
through the day Friday with heaviest occurring late Friday into
Friday night. Highs Friday should be mainly in the lower and mid
60s. Steadier rain should taper to showers by Saturday morning as
the surface low meanders overhead. Lows Friday night will be in
the upper 40s and lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upcoming hazards: Potential for winds gusting into Wind Advisory
thresholds over the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall is possible.
12Z model suite gradually coming into somewhat of a consensus for
the track and evolution of upcoming strengthening storm. This
complex system will involve a hybrid tropical system in some
capacity, however the transfer and evolution of moisture into the
developing Nor`easter is still not totally clear. In any case,
models in good agreement that surface low pressure will begin to
undergo cyclogenesis off the Mid Atlantic coastline tomorrow
before heading northeast. Surface pressures continue to fall
Friday night as a negatively tilted, dynamic upper level trough
digs into the region. The question of the day is how far south can
the upper level low form and how progressive is this feature? This
will affect the outcome for rainfall totals across the region.
QPF: As of now it appears northern areas will be situated in the
best dynamics and for the longest period of time, thereby picking
up the most precipitation. Up to 2.5 inches of rainfall is
expected in the mountains with less to the south as surface low
develops overhead, shutting off the precipitation early with a dry
slot forming. There is an outlier with the Canadian model which
appears to bring a stripe of heavy rainfall to southern areas,
bringing up to 4 inches of rainfall to the Portland area. First
scenario appears more likely with heavy rainfall in the mountains.
Some of this moisture may be enhanced by the terrain with locally
higher amounts. Antecedent conditions are dry so flooding is not
expected at this time.
Very strong wind fields develop, possibly as early as late
Saturday over New Hampshire depending on the exact forecast track.
The strong wind gusts may be mainly diurnally driven and will
likely spread into Maine by Sunday morning. Winds may gust as high
as 45+ mph, leading to the possibility of some power outages. This
may be delayed until Sunday as this is dependent of the passage of
the upper level low in a strong tilted surface to upper level
area of low pressure.
A short wave will move through the fast flow on Sunday night
bringing more scattered showers to the region. Snow showers may
begin to develop in the mountains as boundary layer temperatures
begin to cool. Thereafter, gusty westerly winds and wet bulbing
effects will allow for areas of rain and snow showers in the
mountains with light accumulations of snow possible early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through Friday night/...VFR deteriorates to IFR and
LIFR tonight in rain...drizzle...and fog. We`ll likely see an
extended period of instrument flight rules as slow-moving low
pressure and an associated frontal system traverse the area.
Long Term...
IFR to LIFR conditions expected into early Saturday with the
expected rain. A cold front pushes east through the area Saturday,
allowing for partial clearing conditions to VFR over southern
areas while in the mountains and foothills MVFR conditions in
scattered showers will persist through much of the weekend and
into early next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /through Friday night/...Increasing and persistent
onshore flow will bring small craft conditions to the open waters
and marginal small crafts to the bays tonight through Friday
night.
Long Term...
A strengthening area of low pressure moves through central New
England on Saturday with a trailing cold front in its wake. This
will set the state for a strong west to northwesterly flow behind
it which may gust into gales at times through the rest of the
weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The Friday 4 pm astronomical tide in Portland will be 10.6 feet.
A southeasterly flow ahead of the system may allow for building
storm tides during the day. This will be monitored as we move
through the workweek for possible advisory headlines for some
splash-over.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Legro
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
303 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
A vigorous short-wave trough evident on 19z/2pm water vapor imagery
over southern Iowa/northern Missouri will continue to track eastward
across the area this afternoon and evening. Enough synoptic lift is
being generated by this feature that weak radar returns are showing
up, suggesting the possibility of a few light showers or sprinkles.
Both the NAM and GFS show measurable precip developing across the
E/SE KILX CWA this evening as the wave passes through. Think this
may be a bit too aggressive, but will mention isolated showers
along/east of the I-57 based on current radar trends. Clouds will
hold firm into the early evening hours before gradually clearing
from west to east overnight. HRRR has been handling cloud trends
quite well, so have followed its solution closely. Skies will clear
to the I-55 corridor by midnight, then to the Indiana border by dawn
Friday. With skies clearing and a cool/dry airmass flowing into the
region, overnight lows will dip into the middle to upper 30s across
the western CWA. Think winds will decrease enough to allow the
formation of frost across the Illinois River Valley toward dawn.
Have therefore issued a Frost Advisory for all counties along and
west of the Illinois River. Further east, clouds will hold on long
enough to keep lows in the lower 40s. High pressure will slide
overhead on Friday, resulting in sunny skies and cool high
temperatures in the middle to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
High pressure ridge will sit right over the CWA Friday night, and
with clear skies and light winds, frost will be a concern. Based on
the forecasted ridge axis, believe the best area for frost will be
in the eastern half of the CWA. Will probably need an advisory for
Fri night, but will wait til tomorrow to issue. High pressure will
dominate the area with dry weather through most of the weekend. A
frontal system will slide across northern half of the CWA on Sunday,
but there will be a lack of moisture, so no precip is expected when
this moves through. Behind this weak front, cooler high pressure
will move into the area for the first couple of days of the week.
Dry weather will continue as well. The next real chance of precip
will be beginning Tue night after midnight and then continuing into
Wed night. Earlier model runs differed on timing and location of the
precip; however, now models in better agreement. This system is
expected to move through quickly, so Thursday of next week should be
dry.
Besides the cool temps Fri night, seasonable temps will continue for
Sat and Sat night. Temps will then warm to above normal for Sunday,
before becoming seasonable again after the second high pressure area
moves in for next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
While the main area of rain from earlier this morning has now
shifted east of the terminals, a trailing upper-level wave may
bring a few light showers or sprinkles through the afternoon, so
have included VCSH at all sites. The main aviation forecast
concern will be the approach/timing of MVFR ceilings currently
spilling southward out of northern Illinois. Latest satellite
imagery shows the leading edge of the lower clouds along the I-74
corridor. HRRR seems to have a good handle on the clouds, so have
followed its solution closely. As a result, have initially started
with MVFR ceilings at the I-74 terminals...then have spread them
into KSPI/KDEC by 19-20z. With ridge of high pressure approaching
from the west, skies will gradually clear from west to east across
the area tonight. Based on forecast soundings, have scattered the
ceiling at KPIA by 02z...then further southeast to KCMI and KDEC
by 06z. Winds will initially be gusty from the N/NW this
afternoon, then will decrease to less than 10kt overnight into
Friday morning.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for ILZ027>031-036-
037-040-041-047.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
702 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Low Pressure over kentucky late this afternoon will push northeast
tonight...dragging a cold front along the Ohio River father
southeast. As the low departs the area...rain across Central
Indiana will taper off during the evening hours.
High pressure over the Central Plains states is expected to build
across the region...bringing a blast dry weather and seasonal
fall temperatures.
The dry weather is expected to persist through the weekend and at
least into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows Low pressure in place
across Kentucky. A frontal systems was found stretching from
eastern Pennsylvania to Western Kentucky and then south to the
Lower Mississippi river Valley. High pressure was found across the
central Plains. A shield of precip was found across Central
Indiana streaming Northeast in the flow aloft. Water vapor showed
an approaching upper trough over Illinois and Iowa.
HRRR Continues to suggest lingering precipitation across the
forecast area through the late afternoon. However after 00z best
moisture will be rapidly departing the area. forecast soundings
and time heights do shows lower level moisture lingering through
the evening hours...but lift should be much weaker as best forcing
and dynamics should depart rapidly to the northeast. Best chance
for precip after 00z may be with the tail of the system...seen at
the moment as some light showers across Missouri. None the
less...will taper pops lower as the night progresses.
As the cold front sags southward...strong Cold air advection
continues to stream into central Indiana. 850MB temps show values
falling to near 2c by 12Z Friday. Thus will trend toward the
cooler MAVMOS lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Dry weather is expected this period.
After the departure of the broad trough in place across the area
on Friday...GFS and NAM suggest Strong ridging to build across the
western plains and slowly spill eastward...placing The Ohio
valley in a broad area of lee side subsidence, Forecast soundings
through Sunday show a dry column....with fair weather CU/SC
expected on Friday...and unattainable convective temperatures on
Saturday and again on Sunday. Thus will aim for Partly sunny
Friday and Mostly sunny on Saturday and Sunday. The quick NW flow
aloft should allow a few passing high clouds through the
period...although this should have no impact.
As for temps...the Cool air in place behind the front will linger
across the area before Warm air advection is expected to begin on
Saturday. Furthermore additional sunshine on Saturday an Sunday
should allow a slow modification of the cooler air mass.
Additionally as the surface high passes to our east on Saturday
night and Sunday...Warmer return flow will develop within the
lower levels. Thus look for Friday to be the coolest day...with
daytime high trending higher each day through Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.
A cold front will bring some cooler air early in the week, but
lack of moisture will keep conditions dry. The quiet weather can be
expected until mid week, when a low pressure system could bring some
showers to the area Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday.
Temperatures will be near to above average.
&&
.AVIATION (Discussion for the 210000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 702 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Kept VCSH or showers in the main group through 03z-04z. Moderate
confidence that MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR 08z-10z. Northwest
winds will remain around 10 knots and should keep fog from being an
issue. Finally, Cu development progs suggest diurnal VFR cu Friday
afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
351 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front moves from west to east this evening into tonight with
showers and storms. Precipitation lingers Friday, possibly into
Saturday. Moisture starved cold front Sunday Night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...
Surface boundary beginning to move again after being stalled
across Central Ohio for most of the morning. This is due to a
surface low making its way into Central Kentucky early this
afternoon. West of this front, have dense cloud cover and fairly
widespread rain. East of the front, a cumulus deck has been
developing along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thus,
the main feature to track through the tonight is the boundary as
it slides east.
This afternoon, with most of the CWA ahead of the front, we will
see showers and thunderstorms moving through. Used a blend of near
term, hi-res guidance to formulate POPs...with an area of likely
POPs crossing CWA through this evening. Clouds have limited
instability some, but combined with decent shear we should still
have enough instability to drive some stronger cells capable of
gusty winds. Still not real excited about these reaching severe
limits, but cannot rule out and isolated bowing segment with
damaging winds threat.
Tonight, as the front continues east, we will se more widespread
precipitation and clouds quickly lowering. Have large area of 100
POPs just behind the front, lingering into the early morning
hours. In general, looking at a 1-2" rainfall event providing some
relief to the parched ground.
Expect a slow recovery on Friday, with low stratus and
light rain/drizzle/fog lingering through much of the morning. This
will limit diurnal heating, so have fairly flat temps -- and even
non-diurnal at higher elevations of the northern mountains as
850mb temps continue to fall through the day. Afternoon highs will
be significantly cooler than today, with most locations staying in
the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Thursday...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the area
from the west Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough and
associated surface low/cold front move out. Rain showers also
taper off from west to east Friday night in the low lands, and in
the mountains Saturday morning as drier air works in. Pressure
gradient between the surface low and high pressure will be tight
over our area through Saturday, so the strong cold air advection
and blustery northwest flow will bring temperatures down to well
below normal Friday night through Saturday. Gusty winds Friday
night and Saturday with temperatures in the 50s for highs Saturday
will make it seem much colder, and some wind gusts in the higher
elevations of the northern mountains may exceed 40 mph. Enough
cold air will get into the northern mountains to change rain
showers to snow showers later Friday night and Saturday morning,
but with little accumulation. Sunday will already begin a rebound
under high pressure and plenty of sunshine to boost temperatures
back into the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 PM Thursday...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will be the dominating
feature through Wednesday, except for a weak and moisture starved
front dropping across the area late Sunday night and Monday
morning. Except for a sprinkle in the northern mountains with the
front, dry weather and near normal temperatures can be expected.
Thursday will see another system approaching from the west, but
with warm temperatures preceding it.
Thing
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Thursday...
Messy TAF period ahead as a cold front moves through the forecast
area. Ahead of the cold front, have a VFR cumulus deck forming
with some showers and thunderstorms expected. Did include some
MVFR tempos in thunderstorms, using HRRR for timing. Could even
get brief IFR.
As the cold front passes tonight, more widespread rain is expected
as well as a low stratus deck moving in. This leads to IFR to LIFR
conditions once the front passes...lingering well into Friday
morning. Winds are generally southwesterly this afternoon outside
of any thunderstorms, and will shift to northwesterly behind the
front.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible in thunderstorms into tonight.
Timing of frontal passage and drop into IFR rain/stratus may
very...as well as timing of recovery Friday.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR may linger in low stratus in the mountains into Saturday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
322 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Mid level trough axis continues to translate eastward this afternoon
while a drier airmass upstream filters southward into northeast
Kansas. Most of the stratus deck has dissipated to the south with
some diurnal cumulus noted over north central areas. As the center
of the sfc ridge axis enters northern Kansas within the next few
hours, northerly winds will calm through the evening. Expect to see
clearing skies as temperatures quickly drop back into the 40s by
midnight. Some uncertainty on how well the low levels decouple
overnight as light northerly winds veer towards the south by
sunrise. Short term HRRR and RAP are not as cool with readings near
40 degrees while the MOS guidance is trending towards the middle 30s.
Went closer to MOS, especially with the calm winds and clear skies.
Patchy frost is possible generally east of highway 75 through
sunrise.
On Friday, dry northwest flow builds into the region at 500 mb.
Sfc trough deepens east into the western high plains, enhancing the
southerly winds over north central KS. Speeds between 15 and 20 mph
sustained are expected with gusts in excess of 25 mph possible.
Elsewhere, 10 to 15 mph sustained with gusts around 20 mph is
likely. Slightly better mixing with sunshine throughout the day
should result in highs from the lower 60s east to upper 60s west.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Sfc high pressure will slide off to the east Friday night leading
to warmer and windy conditions through Sat night. A weak cold
front will sag into the region on Sunday however lack of moisture
and large scale forcing will keep conditions dry and the only
impact will be a decrease in winds on Sunday. Return flow with
increasing south winds will establish across the region on Monday
with the next shortwave still forecast to move across the area
next Tues and Weds. Sufficient moisture should return to allow
some precip to develop ahead of the wave and associated sfc front
mainly Tues night into early Weds.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
MVFR stratus dissipating southward as dry air associated with area
of high pressure translates southward. VFR prevails aft 18Z today
with northerly winds becoming light aft 00Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Prieto