Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/17/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
843 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.UPDATE...Tonight
Issued at 843 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
We are finally starting to see some ACCAS (elevated showers/storms)
develop west of Mankato,MN moving east northeast. This activity is
occurring in the axis of 1000 MUCAPE and is being driven by a
weak shortwave lifting northeast across southern
Minnesota/northern Iowa. 850mb moisture transport will really ramp
up and focus into the Forecast Area over the next 1-3 hours.
Showers and thunderstorms should become more widespread north of
Interstate 90 in response to this increasing 850 mb moisture
transport. We continue to see the potential for a strong storm or
two capable of producing hail, given the elevated CAPE and strong
effective shear.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Water vapor imagery showing a strong storm system over the Pacific
Northwest/Intermountain West. RAP analysis showing strong 300mb jet
energy of 110-160kt blowing through northern CA into WY. This energy
will have an impact on our weather here tonight into Monday.
For the time being...high pressure was providing the area with a
glorious Mid-October day. Under mostly sunny skies across most of
the area, temperatures as of 2 pm were in the 60s with even a few
lower 70s across far southwest WI.
Rapid changes expected late this evening/overnight as that
aforementioned energy starts to impact us. A warm frontal boundary
will surge northeast into the area this evening as surface
cyclogenesis takes place on the leeside of the Northern Rockies.
Strong 925-850mb moisture transport/isentropic lift over the front
expected to fire convection mainly along/north of I-90. RAP showing
MUCAPE around 1500J/KG and effective bulk shear in the 60-70kt.
This begs the question of whether the shear will be too strong to
sustain a strong core updraft. Believe there will be a few that will
be able to sustain some larger hailstones but remaining sub-severe.
Appears highest hail threat will be along and north of the I-94
corridor. Otherwise...a very mild night on tap in warm air advection
with overnight lows only dropping back into the upper 50s/middle
60s. In fact, new records may be established for highest lows for
the 17th. See climate section below for details.
Monday afternoon into Monday evening is a concern as models show a
deepening surface low moving northeast into the region from the
Central Plains. This wave will be moving along a boundary in place.
This sets up a very dynamic high helicity/strongly curved hodograph
environment across our area. Fly in the ointment will be amount of
stratus and even some patchy drizzle which is forecast to be in
place, which in turn, will limit CAPE. NAM soundings also show a
fairly strong cap in place across the area, centered 700-750mb. This
would limit surface based storms. On the other hand...if cap is not
as strong and more CAPE is realized, we could be looking at an
increased severe potential including the potential for a few
tornadoes. We will continue to watch this environment very closely.
Otherwise, temperatures on Monday will be much above normal, topping
off in the 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Tuesday through Wednesday...
Looks cooler and dry Tuesday through Wednesday as a weak surface
ridge of high pressure drifts across the region. Look for highs in
the upper 50s to the middle 60s, which is still some 3-5 degrees
above normal.
Wednesday night through Sunday...
The GFS and ECMWF continue to slide a longwave trough through the
area, bringing cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s and lows in
the 30s and 40s into the weekend. The models have also come into
better agreement with timing of this trough moving through, though
the 16.12Z GFS continues to cut off a low over the southern US, but
is much less aggressive in doing so and farther east than previous
runs. The region will mostly remain dry through the period, but it`s
difficult to rule out a shortwave or two working through and giving
the area a couple chances for showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
MVFR stratus will move into the TAF sites this evening with
conditions possibly falling to IFR by late evening into the
overnight. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight
but the bulk of this activity looks to develop north of the TAF
sites. LIFR conditions in dense fog is possible at KRST by
Monday morning as a moist airmass settles in. Otherwise conditions look
to improve to MVFR by mid morning Monday and remain there through
much of the day.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Very mild conditions are expected through Monday with overnight lows
tonight in the 60s. These overnight lows will be some 20 to 25
degrees above normal. In fact, there is a chance that both Rochester
and La Crosse will set new record warm low temperature readings for
October 17th. Below is a look at those records as they stand
currently:
Record Warmest Low Year Established Forecast Low
------------------ ---------------- ------------
La Crosse 64 1994 65
Rochester 62 1953 64
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS/Aegerter
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
CLIMATE...DAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
947 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
The showers have nearly cleared the region and should finally do
so across the north central by 10 PM. Then clearing skies will
continue except for the far southwest and south central. Will
continue the slight chance to chance for showers there after
midnight.
UPDATE Issued at 802 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Area of thunderstorms benefiting from shear, strong lapse rates
and just enough cape beneath the upper impulse. Extended the
chance for thunderstorms across the north central through 10 pm
CDT.
UPDATE Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
After a fairly active convective period over the few hours things
should quiet down quite a bit after 8 pm cdt. One or two
thunderstorms will persist through 8 or 9 pm, then end. Wind
advisory has expired.
UPDATE Issued at 456 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Latest HRRR runs have been hinting at a cluster of thunderstorms
developing from north central South Dakota into south central
North Dakota late this afternoon and early evening, along the warm
frontal boundary as it moves east. Convective diagnostics support
thunderstorm growth if the cap breaks with mid level lapse rates
greater than 7.5 and MU capes 500-1000. Last few volume scans
show several cells developing in north central South Dakota per
HRRR. Updated for thunderstorms across teh far southeast CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
A large-scale upper level low/trough extended from the Pacific
Northwest across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains. The first
potent upper level shortwave impulse associated with this
large-scale system was currently moving northeast across
Saskatchewan and North Dakota. The surface expression of this system
is a low over the southern border of Alberta/Saskatchewan...with a
trough extending southeastward to another low over southwestern
ND/northwestern SD. Strong and gusty southeast winds ahead of the
surface system had reached wind advisory criteria (sustained at 30
mph with gusts to 40 mph) over south central ND into the James
Valley. Behind this system westerly winds at 15 to 30 mph are
expected this afternoon into the early evening.
Although some Burleigh and Emmons county stations remain in wind
advisory criteria at 3pm...expect winds to diminish this hour as the
surface trough approaches from the west. Will extend the wind
advisory for the south central Coteau and James Valley counties
until 7 pm cdt.
The surface trough is forecast to move east across the state today,
arriving in the Red River Valley later this evening. Expect the
southeast winds to decrease as the surface trough approaches...then
westerly winds kick in. Thus expect that the wind speeds in the
James Valley should decrease below advisory criteria this evening.
Westerly winds overnight should remain at around 5 to 15
mph...keeping temperatures from dropping too much. Looking at
overnight lows from the upper 30s northwest to upper 40s southeast.
Scattered to isolated showers over the state this afternoon may
linger in northern and central/eastern parts of the state late this
afternoon and early evening...then should end in the James Valley
during the early evening.
Expect clearing and a quiet night most of tonight behind the wave.
Meanwhile the second potent shortwave in the large-scale system digs
south as it crosses the Rockies tonight over Utah/Wyoming...reaching
southern ND before daybreak. An upper level jet streak associated
with the shortwave moves across WY/SD/MN. Instability along this
feature may induce a band of rain showers across southern ND daytime
Monday. Thus have a chance of showers along the
SD border late tonight...then some higher chances across southern ND
daytime Monday. Looking at partly cloudy skies north and mostly
cloudy south...with highs from the 50s south to lower 60s north.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Upper level shortwave energy continues moving across the state
Monday night into Tuesday.
The next upper level trough moves east across the Northern Plains
Wednesday/Thursday...but a split flow in the pattern should shunt
any precipitation away from ND. It will allow some cool air moving
south out of Canada. Looking at highs in the 45 to 55 range by
Wednesday.
After that a building upper level ridge expanding out of the desert
southwest should keep any big precipitation-makers away from ND.
This will also allow for a nice warming trend with highs back into
the 55-65 degree range by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
VFR conditions are expected across the region. Isolated
thunderstorms wil end across the region by 9 PM CDT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1202 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move to near the New York - Pennsylvania
border tonight and Monday, before retreating back to the north as
a warm front later Monday and Tuesday. Southwest flow aloft will
bring much above normal daytime and nighttime temperatures to the
region right into Wednesday. A weak cold front will push through
the Commonwealth on Wednesday, followed by a slight cooling trend
for Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Convection surprisingly strong but very short at this hour.
Despite sunset and only meager warmth to work with there are a
few mini bow echoes and associated bookend vorticies rolling
through the northern tier. KELZ had a G33KT, and similar gusts are
likely occurring north of Route 6. The activity seems to be
weakening slightly as expected - and is also not making progress
all that far to the south. Forecast rolling along and tweaks made
were only slight at best.
Prev...
Active long line of showers north through west of CWA will inch
closer to area later this afternoon and tonight. Ahead of this
area HRRR consistent in showing showers breaking out...and radar
has shown this north of border in NYS. So will keep pops in the
forecast through tonight with highest chances furthest
north. With warm moist air and cloud cover in place...overnight
lows will be well above average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal system never really makes it through the area and begins
to retreat with ridging and higher heights building in from
south. Will have pops in forecast until front clears area and
there could be enough instability for a few thunderstorms to form
on Monday. Another warm day with temperatures well above average.
Quiet night on Monday night though fog and low clouds likely to
form late with the ample low level moisture and longer nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong southwest flow of air will keep warmer than normal
temperatures across the region into at least Thursday. Trend is
for the cold front not to drop as far south by Tue.
Did up temperatures some, especially on Thursday. Adjusted
temperatures on Thursday by about 5 degrees. Fits in better
with others and model solutions.
Still looks like some rain and cooler temperatures for late
in the week. Would not be surprise if by the time the colder
air moves in, it is less than what the models show.
For now, enjoy the nice weather. 850 mb temperatures support
temperatures at least in the lower 80s by Tuesday. Given the
west to southwest flow, if we get much mixing, most likely it
would be warmer than the lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cluster of showers is moving into eastern PA. So far the only
restrictions are BFD which is seeing IFR vsbys due to the excess
moisture from the showers and MVFR cigs and vsbys at IPT due to
the same. Expect IPT to go IFR between 06z to 08Z. With this
moisture and instability MVFR cigs are possible at all TAF sites mainly
after 09Z. BFD and IPT should see IFR cigs and vsbys through the
early morning hours. Improving after 12Z and lifting by 16Z. MDT
and LNS should see MVFR cigs overnight but will be VFR by morning.
Outlook...
Mon...Showers cig reductions possible, mainly north.
Tue...Improving conditions.
Wed...Chance showers and poss reductions NW half.
Thu...Chance of showers.
Fri...Chance of showers.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Ceru
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
654 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
...Updated Fire Weather...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Record heat will continue Monday. Widespread upper 90s and even
some 100 degree readings were found from far southwest KS into the
northeastern Texas Panhandle. The usually hot-bias RAP and HRRR
models were spot on today. Since this is the case, it should be
the model to follow for Monday. As crazy as it sounds, we could
add a couple degrees tomorrow in a corridor from Liberal to Dodge
City, as the 850mb thermal ridge expands northeast just ahead of
the advancing cold front. This is a classic pattern for very warm
temperatures with the hottest readings immediately ahead of the
front in the downslope, west-southwesterly momentum surge. The
all-time October record high for Dodge City is 98 degrees. It is
not impossible to think that we could flirt with 100 degrees in
Dodge -- a feat never accomplished in this month going back to
1874. It would have to be perfect timing of the front just north
of Dodge by late afternoon with little or no influence from high
clouds, though. The official forecast calls for a high of 97 at
Dodge City (and a good portion of southwest KS for that matter).
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
The longwave pattern through the week will have a fairly high
zonal index and be quite progressive. This will result in dry
frontal passages through the entire period going into late next
weekend. The strongest front of this period appears to be
Wednesday, when a nose of +5 to +7C at 850mb temperatures moves in
from the north. A large, sprawling surface high will encompass the
Central Plains by late in the week, but as the primary synoptic
scale trough passes by to our north, the precipitation chances
will be near-zero with moist trajectories well off to the east of
our region of the world. Another warm period looks to develop by
Friday, if not for sure by Saturday, as another fast-moving polar
jet moves across the far northern CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
VFR through Monday, with at most some scattered cirrus. Included
some westerly LLWS overnight at DDC/GCK overnight as westerly
850 mb winds increase to near 30 kts. After 15z Mon, SW winds
15-25 kts at GCK/DDC, slightly weaker at HYS. Just beyond this
TAF forecast cycle, a strong but dry cold front will bring strong
gusty north winds to all airports around 03z Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Cancelled the red flag warning for the western zones this evening.
Winds have slackened quickly, and temperatures are falling/RH
rising quickly in the very dry air. Red flag warnings remain in
effect for most of SW Kansas Monday afternoon. Record breaking hot
temperatures, MIN RH as low as 6%, gusty SW winds near 30 mph, and
cured grasses will make for dangerous fire weather conditions
Monday afternoon, particularly south and west of Dodge City.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 54 97 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 51 95 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 51 95 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 44 97 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 52 90 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
P28 60 94 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ Monday for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-080-084>089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
653 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Stratus and some patchy fog continues to plague the northeast
portion of the forecast area this afternoon. South and western areas
have some sunshine. With the clouds, the temperature has been kept
cooler.
Main concern for the period will be if there will be fog again
tonight. There is a surface low to the north of the forecast area
with light winds expected through the night and into Monday morning.
All of the models have some low level moisture across the area. The
HRRR has lower visibilities for late tonight and the SREF has a
pretty good chance for visibilities lower than a mile. The best
location for this would be in the eastern part of the area and
toward the central part of the forecast area. That area could have
visibility around a mile or less again in the morning. Some of the
models show it starting after 03Z tonight and moving out better than
it did this morning, having it gone by 15Z. If it does move out on
time, the highs tomorrow should be in the 80s, but if the clouds
linger too long will have to watch the temperatures in the
northeast/eastern part of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
The surface low over the area on Monday will sink to the south and
bring a cold front through the area mainly late Monday afternoon and
evening. It will be late enough in the day to have little impact on
temperatures Monday and even Monday night will be similar to lows
tonight. The colder air will finally be felt on Tuesday with
temperatures cooling off. Tuesday and Tuesday night will continue
dry with a weak surface high that moves through the area. An upper
level wave moves into the area Wednesday and there is a chance of
showers mainly across the Nebraska portion of the area during the
day Wednesday and into the evening hours before they move out.
Temperatures cool off Wednesday night and Thursday remains on the
cool side as a surface high moves through the area. An upper level
ridge builds to the west of the area and there will be some warm
advection Thursday night through Saturday. Temperatures will show a
little warming trend through this period. Another cold front moves
through the Sunday and cools temperatures off a bit.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
The primary concern will once again be the possibility of fog and
low stratus clouds a few hours either side of dawn. Based on
forecast models it seems that fog will cover less area than it did
last night, but could still be rather dense in areas where we do
see fog. At this time the best bet for fog is to the southeast of
KGRI and KEAR. It will be a closer call in KGRI and will go with
lower visibility in the TAF along with a scattered low stratus
deck that could possibly even take KGRI to IFR at times. Any
visibility and ceiling reductions will improve by late morning and
be a non-issue as we head into Monday afternoon.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Wesely
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1159 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Rain has become more spotty this afternoon, but will increase some
tonight as the front that is currently going through will return
north as a warm front tonight and early Monday. Showers and storms
tonight will shift to the north on Monday, with warmer temperatures
expected. The associated cold front will move through on Tuesday,
keeping chances of rain in through then.
More rain will become possible on Wednesday and Thursday, especially
across southern areas as another system approaches the area. Cooler
air will follow for the end of the week and next weekend, with
smaller chances of rain remaining possible.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
I made no major changes to the ongoing forecast. There is light
fog across the area (1 to 3 miles visibilities) with some locally
dense fog near the Lake Michigan Shore. The RAP model has done a
great job of showing where the lowest visibilities are and it
shows the lowest visibilities are near the front over the Lake
shore area. As the front becomes a warm front overnight it lifts
the fog to the north out of our CWA. Given how the winds are
forecast to increase in the boundary layer overnight that totally
makes sense to me so I do not believe we will see widespread dense
fog overnight.
The other issue the developing low level jet. There is a segment
of the jet that is aimed at our southwest CWA between midnight and
3 am. After that it is aimed at southeast Michigan and northern
Ohio. This is shown by the 1000/850 moisture transport vectors
too. Thus as we have forecast there is a good chance we will see
at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the
early morning hours of Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Our main focus for the short term portion of the forecast is mainly
rain trends through Tue with the frontal system remaining in the
region through then. Some thunder will be possible tonight through
Mon night, however we are not expecting anything organized that
would be strong at this time.
We are seeing low clouds/drizzle/fog being the prevailing condition
across the area this afternoon. Latest sfc analysis shows the front
has sank south to just north of I-96 as of 19z. It is slowing its
progress south as expected as the upper wave supporting this is
moving NE of the area. Plenty of low level moisture lingering, and
it will only linger through this evening.
We will see rain chances increase some overnight from south to
north. The moisture transport will ramp up as the llj increase to
over 30 knots ahead of the next wave that will be moving in. The
progression of the rain to the north will occur as the llj helps the
sfc front to move back north as a warm front. All of this
shower/storm activity will be of the elevated variety, so severe wx
is not likely.
The showers and storms should shift almost entirely out of the area
for Mon and Mon night. The warm front should lift to near and north
of the Straits area, taking with it the nose of the llj and best
moisture transport. we will be left with windier conditions and
warmth. We expect that many area will see a good deal of sun on Mon,
which should help lift temps well into the 70s and approach 80.
The chance of rain will come back, mainly Tue morning as the cold
front will push through the area. The cold front will be lacking
good deep moisture ahead of it, and will be coming through before
much heating can take place. It looks to be most of the way through
the area by 18z Tue. The rain chances will end at that time, and we
will cool down back to near seasonable levels.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
An upper trough amplifies across the eastern CONUS during the period
resulting in cool and possibly wet weather much of the time. Low
pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley will spread its northern
precip shield into Lower Michigan with the highest chances being
across the southern zones Wednesday and Thursday.
Colder air on the backside of the low arrives later Thursday and
Friday with the synoptic rain showers replaced with a few lake
enhanced showers. These should end by Friday night but a clipper
arrives Saturday or Sunday in fast northwest flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1106 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
A mix of ifr/lifr conditions will continue due to areas of fog
and low cigs. However conditions will gradually improve somewhat
overnight to predominantly mvfr later this morning as fog
gradually dissipates as southerly winds increase. Scattered rain
showers will likely develop during the early morning hours Monday
and linger through mid morning before dissipating.
Conditions will gradually improve further to mainly vfr with some
lingering mvfr toward midday when southerly winds will also ramp
up to around 15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts through the afternoon
and evening. Some showers may redevelop later Monday but there is
not enough potential for that to occur to warrant inclusion in the
terminal forecasts at this time as the vast majority of showers
later today should stay north of all the terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1015 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
As it has turned out the fog is not lifting as quickly as I
through it may so I extended the time of the fog advisory until 4
am.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
A widespread half inch of rain fell this morning. Over an inch was
common in the lower Muskegon basin and the lower Grand basin. Over
two inches was reported in northern Kent County and northern
Muskegon County. Fortunately, the smaller river basins that received
the most rain have enough room to handle the runoff. Many rivers
will continue running much higher than seasonal normals this week.
The flood threat is limited by a rather low chance of widespread
heavy rain events this week, though Thursday bears watching for the
upper Grand basin if the expected axis of heavy rain shifts
northwest.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LMZ845>849.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...Ostuno
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1138 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure over the area will move offshore
during the early part of this week bringing a warming trend, with
well above normal temperatures expected through mid week. A cold
front will approach the area by the end of the week and will bring
an increased chance of rain then.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1115 PM Sunday...Small upper air disturbance or vort over
the offshore waters off the SE U.S. Coast will persist in throwing
back clouds toward and partially onshore mainly from Little River
Inlet and north. The isolated showers earlier over the adjacent
Atl waters have dissipated. This upper vort continues to progress
slowly southward...further away from the NC mainland. The HRRR
and the RAP models, both continue to show this occurring. The
clouds we see will be upper level clouds moving onshore. Models
try to progress the upper level clouds farther inland but given
how dry the air is over the Carolinas, and now the latest
Sat Imagery trends are for these clouds to scour out as they
track further inland into the drier air. The cirrus will mainly
be thin anyway, and shouldn`t be enough to break down the sfc
based inversion. Look for winds to decouple due to this inversion
along with patchy to areas of fog to develop after midnight, with
plenty of moisture avbl in the lower levels. Low temps will range
between 55 to 60 with a few lower 60s along the immediate coast
given ssts are still in the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Elongated surface high east of the
Carolinas will maintain southerly flow through the period.
Gradient will be on the weak side through and return flow is not
expected to be very strong. Return flow will lead to a gradual
increase in low level moisture and contribute to temperatures
above normal. Subsidence aloft, a result of 5h ridge over TX
gradually shifting over the southeast, will keep the mid levels
dry and skies relatively cloud free. Cannot rule out some flat
diurnal cumulus from time to time but no rain will fall. Sinking
motion will also contribute to temperatures above normal with
highs in the lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. &&
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure will continue to extend back
over the Carolinas as it slips farther E-NE into the Atlantic
through Thursday. Plenty of dry air and subsidence through the mid
levels will produce warm and sunny weather on Wed and Thurs but
quite a bit of uncertainty still follows for Fri into next
weekend.
Models are continuing to show a broad mid to upper trough over the
central CONUS on Wed progressing east toward the coast by next
weekend with Atlantic ridge weakening and then building eastward.There
remains uncertainty about the possibility of this upper low
cutting off over the southeast and about the timing of trough
reaching the east coast. This upper trough will drive a cold front
east most likely moving across the Carolinas Fri into Sat but out
ahead of the front, the models continue to show low pressure tracking
up from the Bahamas. Latest model runs keep this low riding up
far enough off the southeast coast keeping best tropical moisture
off the coast late Thurs into early Fri. This will be followed by
the cold front and upper trough/low heading in from the west. The
latest ECMWF and GFS keeps sfc low 200 to 400 miles off shore as
cold front approaches Fri aftn. The ECMWF brings cold front
through much drier than GFS. Therefore potentially any higher end
QPF could be spotty to non-existent on Fri/Sat as of today`s
forecast.
The cold front should sweep through on Fri with mid to upper
trough/low kicking off shore by Sat leaving a deep NW-N cooler and
drier flow. A total change from a more tropical like air mass to
more fall like weather will come by Sat with temps knocked back
down to normal or below through the remainder half of the weekend
into early next week. Therefore max temps running in the 80s mid
week may be closer 70 or below on Sat and Sun. Best chance of pcp
will come of
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 00Z...Anticipate fog development late overnight into the early
morning hours across the forecast area, allowing for areas of
MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect VFR.
With surface high pressure building into the region tonight, light
winds and nearly clear skies will allow for ideal radiational
cooling conditions overnight. As a result, anticipate areas of
MVFR/IFR ground fog to develop into the early morning hours.
After sunrise, conditions will improve to VFR. Light north-
northeast winds will becoming east-southeasterly in the
afternoon, increasing to 5 to 10 kts.
Extended Outlook...Reduced visibilities due to areas of fog in the
early morning hours. Otherwise expect VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1130 PM Sunday...Elongated center of high pressure is
resting across both Carolinas. This leaves a relaxed sfc pg across
the local waters that will yield wind speeds in the 5 to 10 kt
range...except 10-15 kt just beyond the 20 nm line. Significant
seas will continue the subsiding trend with 2 to 3 ft covering all
locations. Dominating periods will be a battle between 5 to 6
second wind waves or 8 to 10 seconds from leftover ground swell.
What`s interesting is that WaveWatch3 model illustrates Extra
Tropical Nicole throwing back a 12 to 14 second period NE swell,
that will reach Cape Hatteras Mon afternoon and Cape Fear Monday
Evening. And it`s progged to further work it`s way down the SE
U.S. coast. Swell height does increase-some mainly further
offshore after the initial leader swells push across. But the
coastal waters unfortunately with a NE swell direction will not
fully see that increase in the swell due to refraction/reflection
going on north of the ILM Waters off Cape Lookout and Cape
Hatteras. And eventually off Cape Fear which will further
refract/reflect this swell before reaching the ILM coastal waters
south of Cape Fear.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Bermuda high will extend west toward the
Carolinas through the period. Weak gradient will keep wind speeds
under 10 kt through the period. Ridge axis is north of the waters at
the start of the period but retreats east during Mon. Winds will
veer from northeast Mon AM to southeast in the afternoon with south
to southwest winds expected Mon night and Tue. Weak gradient and
cooler temps inland could result in development of land breeze each
morning, leading to light offshore flow. Seas around 2 ft through
the period with occasional 3 ft in the vicinity of 20 nm.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure across the area waters on
Wed will move slowly east and weaken. Winds will remain light to
variable less than 10 kts on Wed with a decent on shore component
to the flow. Models continue to show a low moving up the offshore
waters Thurs night into Fri as a cold front tracks through the
Carolinas from the west, most likely moving through the waters by
late Fri. Overall expect an on shore flow to become more northerly
and eventually increase by late Fri into Sat. Light winds Wed into
Thurs will maintain seas 3 ft or less but should rise late Thurs
into Fri as gradient tightens.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Coastal Flood Warning continues for the
Lower Cape Fear River near Wilmington. Water levels along the
river this morning rose to 7.26 ft MLLW with significant amounts
of water reported on Water and Dock streets in downtown
Wilmington. There was also a significant amount of water reported
on US 74 near the Battleship. This evening`s high tide will be a
few tenths lower than the tide this morning however significant
tidal impacts are once again expected along both sides of the
Lower Cape Fear River.
Water levels at the beaches this evening will be lower than this
morning with current predictions falling short of advisory
thresholds. However, the latest tide forecast for Mon morning
would warrant the issuance of a coastal flood advisory for
coastal New Hanover and Brunswick counties overnight.
For the tide gauge located on the Lower Cape Fear River at downtown
Wilmington,
Minor coastal flood thresholds......5.5 ft MLLW.
Moderate coastal flood thresholds...6.7 ft MLLW.
Major coastal flood thresholds......8.0 ft MLLW.
Here are the next 4 consecutive high tides for the Lower Cape Fear
River...
High Tide 1034 PM on Sun...Projected gage reading 7.1 ft MLLW.
High tide 1101 AM on Mon...Projected gage reading 7.5 ft MLLW.
High tide 1126 PM on Mon...Projected gage reading 7.0 ft MLLW.
High tide 1155 AM on Tue...Projected gage reading 7.5 ft MLLW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...rgz
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...iii
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
614 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
No changes to ongoing forecast, other than minor tweaks to very
short term temps and clouds. Most recent model guidance from
HRRR/RAP/LAV/MAV is suggesting that fog may not be as dense or as
widespread as last night. Experimental HRRR an 18z Nam still
support widespread dense fog, as does the 15z SREF. Thus not as
confident in the placement of the dense fog overnight, and whether
it will be as widespread as the previous night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Large scale pattern will be relatively progressing over the next
several days starting off with a deep longwave trof currently
situated off the west coast evolving into a potent
shortwave/vort max eventually entering the cntrl plains sometime
late Tuesday night. Synoptic forcing increases substantially with
the approach of this system via combination of DPVA/strong
700-500MB ageostrophic lift.
For the most part...models agree pcpn development possible Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning just west of the CWA where steep mid lyr
lapse rates will be most prevalent. However...limiting factor will
be no appreciable isentropic moisture advection to tap into. Going
fcst already has low-end chance POPs in place which still look like
the best fit.
Conditions will be somewhat favorable for record or near record
max temps at OMA/84 and LNK/85 Monday aftn as the region will
fall under the influence of waa sector associated with sfc low
lifting from the cntrl high plains into the Dakotas. Otherwise...a
relatively weak Canadian air mass invading the region will
translate to near normal temps Tuesday and Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
With both the GFS and ECM not showing any major systems rolling
through the central plains or significant thermal advection heading
into next weekend...expect dry conditions to prevail along with near
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
VFR conditions at all TAF sites initially. Fog is expected to
redevelop through the night, but we are seeing significant
conflicting model sources on how low it may go. 00Z TAFs will be
mainly be a continuation of previous 18Z TAF trends, which takes
conditions back to LIFR at KOFK/KOMA, and IFR and KLNK. All fog
should dissipate by 16-18z with conditions back to VFR. Given wide
model forecasts, overall confidence is low at this time.
&&
.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for NEZ015-018-
031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DeWald
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DeWald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
919 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Adjust near/short term grids and also allowed the Red Flag Warning
to expire at 9 PM MDT this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT MTNS...RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS MONDAY...
A very dry airmass is in place over the region today and winds have
been meeting Red Flag criteria across most of the area. Winds
should lessen on the plains...but persistent westerly flow into the
lee side trof will keep critical fire weather conditions along the
lower east facing slopes and adjacent plains into the evening
hours...so will maintain current Red Flag warning until 9 PM.
Strong jet stream punching through the western U.S will cause mtn
top winds to increase quickly after 00z. Already seeing wind gusts a
little over 70 mph at times across Pikes Peak and MYP this
afternoon. Have upgraded the high wind watch to a high wind warning
for the peaks above 10000 feet starting at 00z given current
conditions. Best mountain wave parameter set up occurs during the
overnight hours...with peak period between 06z and 15z. Profiles
look best across the Wet Mountains and Sangre De Cristo mountains
where best reverse shear will be in place and there will be a chance
for a mtn wave induced critical layer to set up. Inversions appear
a little too low in model soundings to help reflect winds down into
the lower elevations of the I-25 corridor...so think high wind
warnings will be confined to the mountain zones. HRRR is also
hitting the southern I-25 corridor from time to time (mainly
along/west of I-25 from Walsenburg area to the NM line) with some
high winds after 06z. A little less confidence in this
occuring...but parameters look favorable enough to go ahead and
hoist the high wind highlights. Mtn peaks should stay windy through
most of the day tomorrow so extended the high wind warnings through
4 PM. Its likely as the mtn wave decays...lower elevations may be
able to be taken down sooner...but will let later shifts refine this
as needed.
Relative humidity values will remain low tonight with poor humidity
recoveries expected for most areas...but in particular for the
southeast mountains and lower eastern slopes. This should result in
a faster onset of critical fire weather conditions for Monday so
have started the Red Flag warning at 9 AM. It will take a little
longer for winds to spread eastward across the plains...and winds in
model soundings aren`t as strong farther east within the surface
trof axis. However...with deep mixing we should be able to tap
winds in excess of 25 mph and given the very dry conditions it won`t
take much to experience rapid fire spread. So all Fire Weather
Watch areas have been upgraded to a Red Flag warning with the
afternoon package. The lower elevations of Chaffee and Lake counties
may also hit critical fire weather conditions again...but for
now...conditions do not look widespread enough across the zone for
an upgrade.
Given the volatile conditions in place...any activities that could
spark a fire should be curtailed tonight and Monday. Any fire
starts that do occur have the potential for extreme fire behavior
and rapid rates of fire spread. This will be particularly true
along and west of I-25 where winds will be strongest. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
...Continued Very Dry...
Not much hope in the extended for any significant precipitation. In
fact, aside from the late Tue through Wed period, there may not be
any precip at all. The only good news is that beyond Mon night, it
looks like winds will not be terribly strong across our CWA and
cooler, though still above average, temps will prevail.
Cooling will begin on Tuesday, following a diffuse cold frontal
passage. Should see temps generally in the 60s to lower 70s for
highs on Tue. Some light showers could move into the Sawatch Range
by late in the afternoon or early eve.
Main wx system in the extended will be the trough on Wed. This
system once showed some potential for amplification, but the last 24
hours or so of model runs have made it fairly clear that the
progressive wave solution will win out this time. So, instead of the
cutoff low over SE CO or NM, looks like a rather quick-moving trough
across N CO. This system will bring some light snow showers to Lake
County, which could possibly accumulate to an inch or so locally,
and possibly a few snowflakes to Teller County and the Pikes Peak
Region early Wed. But this is the optimistic solution, and the
latest NAM suggests that even the northern zones could remain
dry.
Following this system, a summer-like ridge will strengthen over the
western third of the nation, and a steady warm-up will occur
through the end of the week and into the weekend. POPs during this
time will basically remain near zero. Winds aloft and near surface
will remain generally light during this time. The next chance of any
precip will hold off until early the following week at the earliest.
Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Conditions will remain VFR over the TAF sites. Main challenges will
continue to be with the winds. KCOS and KALS should continue to see
breezy west winds through 01-02z...while it could be more
intermittent at KPUB. There is a chance of LLWS at KCOS after 09z
tonight...though appears that wind shear may stay just above 2kft
for now. There will certainly be pockets of LLWS tonight closer to
the mountains as Mtn top winds increase to around 60 kts by 06z.
West winds will spread down into the lower elevations again on
Monday with gusts to 35 kts possible at all three terminals in the
afternoon. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ221-222-
224>237.
High Wind Warning until noon MDT Monday for COZ087-088.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM MDT Monday for COZ058-060-061-066-
068-072>075-079>082.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
353 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
...Updated short term, long term and fire weather discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Early morning analysis shows an area of low pressure extending
from around Hays and Russell back toward Garden City. Winds have
become light and variable to the north of the axis with
temperatures dropping accordingly. Farther south, southwesterly
winds have stayed up which is keeping temperatures in the lower to
mid 60s at 3 am. Today will see the last round of very warm to
hot, possibly record breaking, temperatures. A band of strong mid
level winds extends from central California into the central and
northern Plains. A fast moving shortwave trough will move from the
central Rockies this morning into the Midwest by this evening. As
daytime heating progresses, we should see some of these winds
mixing toward the surface which will enhance downslope warming.
Most model guidance yesterday was way underdone in the amount of
heating that occurred. The HRRR and RAP models slowly caught on
during the day yesterday and have been showing run to run consistency
in a plume of upper 90s to low 100s max temperatures across the
southern part of southwest Kansas this afternoon. Have bumped up
high temperatures at least a few degrees across the area this
afternoon.
A strong cold front will push south across central and southwest
Kansas during the evening hours. Winds will switch to the north
and we could see fairly strong gusts for a few hours through mid
to late evening before weakening later tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
The models continue to show another strong positively tilted shortwave
trough moving out over the Plains states around Wednesday night. This
configuration is not favorable for precipitation in the High Plains
as the better moisture will be shunted off to the east. The models are
showing less and less potential for rainfall over western and central
Kansas with each run which makes sense. The biggest impact this will
have is another shot of cooler temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday as another cold front pushes through. Temperatures on
Thursday may struggle to get out of the 50s. Frost could again be
a problem especially around Thursday morning. Upper level ridging
builds back into the central part of the country by the upcoming
weekend. Temperatures should be warming back into the 70s to
around 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
VFR conditions will persist through this period. Light south to
southwest winds will increase from the southwest as the lower
levels of the atmosphere mix out through the day. A strong cold
front will push south across central and southwest Kansas after
00z. North winds will increase behind the front with gusts to
25-30 knots at times.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Another day of deep atmospheric mixing coupled with downslope flow
will result in hot and dry conditions. Relative humidity levels
should drop into the single digits to around 10 percent. A little
more uncertainty as to the strength of the winds but think we should
see at least frequent gusts to 25 mph to reach Red Flag criteria.
Given the warmer temperatures, think that sufficiently low relative
humidity levels should reach the Highway 183 corridor. Have added
the area from Edwards and Pawnee counties up to Trego and Ellis
counties into the warning for this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 48 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 98 45 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 95 46 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 99 47 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 93 48 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 97 53 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-
084>089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
451 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 432 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
00Z raobs/latest wv imagery and RAP analysis show a potent shrtwv
lifting newd thru the nrn plains toward Lk Winnipeg, accompanied by
12hr h5 hgt falls aprchg 100m. Strong llj with h85 s winds up to
50kts over MN and vigorous theta-e advctn/isentropic ascent/steep
mid lvl lapse rates shown on the 00Z MPX raob in advance of this
feature and warm fnt moving thru the Upr Midwest is causing an area
of showers/TS over the wrn Great Lks into wrn Upr MI. A few of the
storms turned strong, producing marginally svr hail at Rockland in
Ontonagon County. There is a break in the pcpn over the nrn Plains
under the influence of drier mid lvl air depicted at h7, but another
shrtwv lifting into the nrn Rockies is causing an area of colder cld
tops/pcpn to aprch the nw Plains.
Main fcst concerns in the short term focus on pop/convective trends
tday associated with vigorous waa ahead of shrtwv lifting into
scentral Canada. As the shrtwv now aprchg the nrn Rockies aprchs
tngt, focus wl shift to pops/convection associated with that feature.
Today...Band of showers/TS under llj/axis of deep lyr qvector cnvgc/
mucapes up to about 1000-1200 j/kg wl move e acrs the area this mrng
with this dynamic forcing before arrival of mid lvl drying/
stabilization in the wake of the sharper forcing results in
diminishing pops w-e thru the day. Considering the instability and
effective lyr shear within the elevated convection, not out of the
question some of the storms this mrng could cause some svr hail. The
best chc for some lingering showers/TS thru the day wl be over the
scentral, where the aprchg warm fnt is fcst to stall out. H85 temps
are fcst to peak arnd 15C over the far scentral, but plenty of
lingering lo clds wl hold down max temps. Still, max temps arnd 70
with dewpts over 60 wl make the day feel warm and humid.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 451 AM EDT MON OCT
17 2016
Busy morning watching convection and shuffling of duties, so will be
brief and hit the highlights. Nam shows a broad 500 mb trough over
the western U.S. 12z Tue with a shortwave over the upper Great
Lakes. The broad trough in the western U.S. heads east and carves
out a deep trough in the upper Great Lakes by 12z Thu. GFS and ECMWF
show about the same thing as well. Overall, did not make too many
changes to the going forecast for temperatures. As for pops, have
categorical in for tonight in the evening with second wave moving
through and then clear it out pretty rapidly with drying Tue
morning. Dry weather continues then into Wed night.
In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough over the
central U.S. 12z Thu with 850 mb temperatures over Lake Superior
around -3C. This upper trough continues to dig into the ern U.S. 12z
Fri with 850 mb temperatures across Lake Superior remaining around
-3C. A 500 mb ridge then starts to build into the desert sw 12z Sat
with a shortwave that moves to the north of the upper Great Lakes.
Broad troughing then continues over the upper Great Lakes into Sun.
Temperatures look to stay near normal for this forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 124 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
A warm front will lift northward toward the area bringing showers
and a few thunderstorms to IWD first and then to the rest of the TAF
sites overnight. Ceilings will drop to IFR overnight tonight at each
TAF site with some visibility restrictions due to rainfall. A low
level jet will also develop overnight which will introduce LLWS to
all of the TAF sites with shear values approaching 40 kts. IFR/LIFR
conditions will then persist through most of Monday with some
improvement possible late. Additional rainfall with a low pressure
system moving in Monday evening along with abundant low level
moisture will support IFR vsby.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 451 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
Two gale events for this forecast period. First one is happening now
early this morning with easterly gales out ahead of a warm front and
winds rapidly came up early this morning across the west. These
winds come down fairly quickly. A low pressure system will move
northeast near into Upper MI tonight. This will allow strong
northwest winds to gust up to 30 kts to develop in its wake, mainly
over eastern Lake Superior, before weakening to about 20 kts or less
Tuesday night thru Thursday as high pressure approaches. This will
have to be watched though as there could be a very brief period of
some gale force gusts behind this low as a tight pressure gradient
occurs and would not be surprised to have a second event gale for a
short period of time across the eastern lake tonight.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ266-267.
Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning for
LSZ162.
Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ264.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LSZ263.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
307 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will begin to move offshore today with
southerly return flow bringing warm and dry conditions to the area
for the next couple of days.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Monday...
Fog will be the forecast problem of the day going into the rest of
the morning hours as some locations are starting to register MVFR
and even some IFR visibilities. It has not been as quick to develop
as yesterday so we will see how prevalent it actually is but models
suggest at least the eastern half of the area could see some LIFR
visibilities with MVFR likely to be the lowest in the west. Warming
trend begins in earnest today as the surface high pressure slips
offshore and southerly return flow overtakes the area. This will
drive high temperatures up to near 80 degrees for the first time in
a while which is 5-10 degrees above normal depending upon location.
Mostly clear skies and light winds for much of the day. Low
temperatures tonight warmer as well, in the upper 50s to near 60
degrees. A chance for fog/low stratus will be possible during the
early morning hours on Tuesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Monday...
Increased return flow around the back side of the surface high will
bring thickness values up to around 1400 meters and this is
suggestive of high temperatures in the low to mid 80s for Thursday
afternoon. Another dry day is expected with partly cloudy to mostly
clear skies. Low temperatures once again near 60 degrees on Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. A chance for fog/low stratus will once
again be possible on early Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 300 AM Monday...
Wed/Wed night: Bermuda high pressure at the surface extending
westward into the Carolinas will be capped by a mid level
anticyclone, resulting in deep (850-300 mb) warming and subsidence.
Apart from patchy early-morning fog, skies should be generally
sunny, with well above normal temps -- highs in the low to mid 80s
and lows in the lower 60s -- as thicknesses are expected to be
around 30-35 m above climo.
Thu-Sun: The mid level ridge gives way to a narrow amplifying trough
over the eastern third of the CONUS late in the week. The
strengthening SSW steering flow east of the approaching trough will
help draw broad low pressure over/east of Cuba/Bahamas northward,
potentially as a tropical or subtropical feature, but in general the
latest model solutions keep this offshore with little to no impact
on NC`s weather. Regarding the approaching longwave trough, the
12z/16 ECMWF ensemble mean is a bit slower than the corresponding
operational EC, which is more progressive and a bit less amplified
than the GFS/GEFS. The operational GFS, which is very slow and deep
and closes off a low over the FL panhandle Sat, is slower and deeper
than the GEFS mean. With the EC ensemble and GEFS mean solutions
fairly close, it seems prudent to go with these to time the
corresponding surface frontal passage. Thicknesses remain warm ahead
of the front Thu, so despite increased cloud cover, expect highs to
still be in the lower 80s, with perhaps some mid 80s, and lows in
the lower 60s again Thu night. Thicknesses dip down to just slightly
above normal Fri, favoring highs in the 70-77 range west to east,
then the more substantially cooler air arrives Sat with highs around
70, followed by a degree or two warmer Sun as modified high pressure
builds in post-front from the SW. Rainfall amounts appear to be
quite small with this front, given a limited opportunity for deep
moisture return as higher PW values hold down over FL or near the
offshore low track. Will keep a chance of showers Fri, just barely
above climatology, falling off to slight chances Fri night/Sat to
account for unsettled weather with the mid level trough passage.
Clearing Sun with dry weather. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...
24 Hour TAF period: Fog will most likely be the forecast problem of
the day with the latest run of the HRRR model favoring fog at
eastern terminals and possibly at KRDU as well. For now have
included TEMPO fog in the TAFs until we see how this develops over
the next couple of hours. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail
once fog burns off later this morning.
Long term: VFR conditions are largely expected through Friday or so
when the next frontal system will approach from the west and bring a
chance for sub-VFR aviation conditions.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 300 AM Monday...
Moderate river flooding continues on the lower reaches of the Neuse
and Tar rivers, with levels continuing to fall today. Minor flooding
is expected for several days on the Roanoke River at Roanoke Rapids
and Scotland Neck, due to upstream lake releases. For details, see
www.weather.gov/ahps2
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$ SYNOPSIS...Ellis
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...Ellis
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Ellis
HYDROLOGY...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
306 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Water vapor imagery this morning depicts a shortwave trough
lifting northeast into the western portions of North Dakota. In
response, the sfc trough axis currently over central Kansas
gradually lifts and deepens northeast into Nebraska this
afternoon, tightening the pressure gradient and wind speeds as a
result. Sustained speeds this morning are already between 15 and
20 mph, likely to increase from 20 to 25 mph generally along and
south of Interstate 70. Vicinity to the trough axis center over
north central Kansas will temper southwest winds slightly to
around 15 mph sustained. As temperatures start off a few degrees
warmer than anticipated in the middle to upper 60s, warm air
surging northward through the day is forecast to raise high temps
to near record readings. Still some uncertainty as to how well we
mix out the inversion layer at 850 mb. Recent runs of the HRRR and
RAP completely mix out the boundary layer, bringing 23 to 25C
temps down towards the sfc. The NAM has a stronger inversion layer
and even stratus this morning at TOP which is not appearing to pan
out by observational trends. Because of this, believe that the 00Z
NAM may be underestimating the mixing aspect. For this reason, I
went a few degrees warmer than the NAM, closer to the MET and MAV
guidance with highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s. There is a
slight concern for fire weather given the strong winds and lower
dewpoints forecast for today. See the fire weather discussion
below for more details.
For tonight, skies remain mostly clear. All models are trending the
cold front a bit faster through the CWA overnight as winds calm below
10 mph. Not expecting any precipitation, however could see some low
clouds develop ahead of the boundary across southeast Kansas by 12Z.
Dewpoints will quickly drop off into the 30s while lows fall to the
50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Cooler weather is anticipated for the Tuesday through Sunday
period as a couple pushes of cold air move through the plains.
The initial cold front should be all but through the forecast
area by sunrise Tuesday. This modified pacific airmass should
cool temps off into the 70s for highs Tuesday. The stronger surge
of cold air looks to come in Wednesday night and Thursday with a
little more Canadian influence to the surface ridge. Because of
this highs should fall back into the 60s Thursday. By the end of
the week and over the weekend, mid level heights are progged to
increase as an upper ridge builds in over the southern plains.
This should allow temps to moderate and gradually trend back into
the 70s.
Precip chances do not look all that impressive through the period.
The best forcing appears to move through Wednesday and Wednesday
night as a shortwave moves out of the Rockies and amplifies over
the plains. However the deeper moisture is expected to be just
southeast of the forecast area thanks to the initial cold front,
and there does not appear to be a whole lot of saturation with the
shortwave. There may be an isolated shower Wednesday or Wednesday
night, but given the limited moisture and a general lack of
instability based on the GFS forecast soundings have trended more
towards a dry forecast.
The one thing for later shifts to watch is the potential for some
weak moisture advection into east central KS Tuesday night that
may lead to some elevated showers. The GFS and ECMWF do not push
the front very far southeast of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Some pressure falls along the boundary try to swing 850MB winds
back to the south and develop some moisture advection. If the
front stalls out a little further northwest, elevated precip may
have a better chance of developing over eastern KS Tuesday night.
By Thursday, dry air with little or no large scale forcing is
expected thanks to the developing upper ridge to the south.
Therefore a dry forecast is expected to persist through the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Despite some gusty winds over the last hour or so, still
anticipate a strong enough inversion overnight for LLWS until the
stronger wind gusts pick back up tomorrow morning. Front
approaches the area very late in the forecast period and will let
next issuance handle that wind shift.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
As the sfc trough lifts northeast this afternoon, much drier air
moves into north central Kansas, dropping minimum humidity values
between 22 and 27 percent in the late afternoon. Southerly winds
remain gusty this morning through sunset at 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. Main uncertainty is the status of the fuels
in the area. In the past few weeks, low lying areas may have
reached a hard freeze while most locations remained in the lower
30s. For this reason, plan on not issuing headlines for today, but
it is a good idea to be mindful if a controlled burn is planned.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Record High Record Warmest Low
Topeka
Today 90 66
Concordia
Today 90 65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67
FIRE WEATHER...Prieto
CLIMATE...Prieto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
918 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Fine tuned POPs a bit based on latest radar and latest RAP/HRRR
trend. Otherwise the forecast remains in good shape with no major
deviations for the mid morning update.
UPDATE Issued at 651 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
The going forecast is on track and was only blended to observed
trends and recent RAP/HRRR guidance through 18 UTC. RAP output
suggests mid-level frontogensis is starting to intensity across
northern SD and southern ND, and will likely become most focused
and intense near midday when the precipitation shield simulated
by rapid-refresh guidance is still expected to be established in
southern ND. The northern edge of the shower activity could end
up near Interstate 94, with drier conditions to the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Water vapor imagery early this morning shows deep upper low
circulation near the Pacific Northwest with models initializing
very strong jet stream moving well inland. Max 250 mb winds of 165
kts per GFS moving into northern NV and as strong as 120 kts
approaching the Northern Plains. Both global models and high
resolution models are in pretty good agreement in bringing
shortwave trough and associated narrow east-west oriented band of
precipitation into southern ND today. Overall solutions appear
reasonable given strong jet dynamics, strong mid-afternoon
850-700mb frontogenesis and coincident band of isentropic lift
indicated by models, focused across southern ND. Radars in SD
beginning to show some increasing reflectivities as well as of
09Z. The ECMWF appears to be the slowest of the members and keeps
precip closer the SD border, while the NAM is farther north with
higher QPF. CONSShort guidance appeared reasonable, resulting in
increasing pops in today`s forecast to likely category across much
of south central ND. The shortwave trough should move rapidly east
tonight, with showers quickly ending from west to east.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
The Northern Plains will initially be under the influence of upper
level cyclonic flow, between upper level low over eastern Canada
and a strengthening ridge over western CONUS. We`ll continue to
carry a slight chance of showers on Tuesday, mainly north, as a
weak wave moves across the region. The upper level ridge axis
reaches ND by Thursday evening resulting in an overall dry pattern
with warming temps. High temps initially near normal in the 40s
and 50s through Thursday will warm to the 50s and 60s Friday,
continuing into the weekend. Right now, Friday looks to be the
warmest day with upper 50s across the north to low/mid 60s south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail today and tonight, but an
area of showers is forecast to occur roughly along and south of
the Interstate 94 corridor today. Brief MVFR conditions are not
out of the question, especially near the ND-SD state line. That
shower activity will shift east and diminish after 00 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...CJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1004 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Showers associated with passage of the upper level jet already
slipping into the foothills of Larimer County so have sped up the
timing for showers in that area today. Latest HRRR starts the
cold front into the Denver area by 21z. Should see gusty
west/southwest winds ahead of the front with north/northwest winds
following fropa. Strongest wind gusts in the mountains today
appear to be this morning. No changes to the current highlights at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 440 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Usually strong Pacific jet stream for this time of year currently
draped across the central Great Basin is projected to rapidly
extend eastward acrs wyoming and extreme northern Colorado through
the day. At the core of this jet are 140+ kt wly winds. Strong
subsidence and especially dry air along the south side of this jet
were largely responsible for the nearly cloud free skies over the
state at the present time. As this jet core nears the area should
see a fairly dramatic increase in winds esply over higher
elevations of the Front range Mtns. A high wind warning has
already been issued for this area. Next the very dry conditions
coupled with steadily increasing westerly winds have prompted a
red flag warning for the foothills and plains. Have gone ahead and
added the mtn valley zone 213 (Middle Park) to the warning since
current RH and wind readings already nearly red flag criteria at
this early hour. I was considering adding fire weather zone 211
(North Park) but models continue to generate cloud cover...higher
RH and at least a slight chance to wetting rainfall this afternoon
with passage of a weak mid-level disturbance which models show racing
along the jet. East of the mtns...models continue to show a cold
front dropping out of Wyoming and across northeast Colorado mid
to late afternoon. Possible we could see a shift to north-
northeast winds before it arrives which would explain the cooler
guidance temperatures today. With frontal passage could see north-
northwest winds gusting in the 30-45 mph range for a few hours on
the plains. Strongest speeds appear to stay east of the I-25
corridor...expect up near the Wyoming border where even stronger
may occur. Highs today roughly 10 to 15 degs f lower than those
yesterday. No records broken today. Tonight...should see winds
letting up through the evening as cooler air filters down from
Wyoming. Showers chances in the high country should fall below 10
percent not long after sunset with drier air moving in. Should
also see wind speeds dying down everywhere as the core of the jet
weakens and shifts northward away from the forecast area.
Overnight lows as much as 10-12 deg f lower...about where they
should be this time of year.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 440 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
An upper level trough will approach the area Tue aftn and then move
across Tue night into early Wed. Moisture will gradually increase
in the mtns by Tue aftn and become deeper Tue Night with orographics
becoming more favorable. In addition with some mid lvl QG ascent
and position of upper level jet will see a good chc of snow in the
mtns especially along and north of I-70.
Over nern CO it will be dry thru Tue aftn with cooler temps as highs
will be in the 60s. By Tue evening a cdfnt will move across the
plains with nly low lvl flow. As main part of upper level trough
moves across Tue night and associated mid lvl ascent would think
there would still be a chc of showers fm the nrn Foothills across
portions of nern CO mainly north of a Denver to Fort Morgan to Akron
line. Further south pcpn chances look lower fm the srn Foothills
across the ecntrl plains. Temps may become cold for a rain...snow
mix nr the WY border late Tue night.
On Wed the upper level trough will quickly move eastward with
decreasing moisture thru the morning hours. Thus pcpn chances
should diminish across the area. Highs on Wed will range from 55 to
60 degrees across nern CO. By Thu dry nwly flow aloft will be over
the area with seasonal temps.
For Fri thru next Weekend an upper level ridge will be in place with
dry conditions and a warming trend as highs reach the 70s across
nern CO.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 949 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
south/southwest winds this morning should start to transition to
westerly by 18z. The cold front is still expected to move into the
Denver area around 21z...so no changes to the current tafs.
Otherwise VFR with no restrictions. Lower levels will remain dry
so no showers expected with the passage of the cold front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 440 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Red flag warning remains in effect for the plains...foothills and
South park fireweather zones. Have added the mountain valley zone
213 (Middle Park) to the warning because near red flag warning
conditions already exist up there at this hour. These conditions
should improve first in the mtns and then on the plains this
evening as colder and more humid air filtering in from the north
behind a cold front which is expected to drop south through the
area mid to late afternoon.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ213>216-
238>251.
High Wind Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ033-034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Cooper
FIRE WEATHER...Baker
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
...updated aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Early morning analysis shows an area of low pressure extending
from around Hays and Russell back toward Garden City. Winds have
become light and variable to the north of the axis with
temperatures dropping accordingly. Farther south, southwesterly
winds have stayed up which is keeping temperatures in the lower to
mid 60s at 3 am. Today will see the last round of very warm to
hot, possibly record breaking, temperatures. A band of strong mid
level winds extends from central California into the central and
northern Plains. A fast moving shortwave trough will move from the
central Rockies this morning into the Midwest by this evening. As
daytime heating progresses, we should see some of these winds
mixing toward the surface which will enhance downslope warming.
Most model guidance yesterday was way underdone in the amount of
heating that occurred. The HRRR and RAP models slowly caught on
during the day yesterday and have been showing run to run consistency
in a plume of upper 90s to low 100s max temperatures across the
southern part of southwest Kansas this afternoon. Have bumped up
high temperatures at least a few degrees across the area this
afternoon.
A strong cold front will push south across central and southwest
Kansas during the evening hours. Winds will switch to the north
and we could see fairly strong gusts for a few hours through mid
to late evening before weakening later tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
The models continue to show another strong positively tilted shortwave
trough moving out over the Plains states around Wednesday night. This
configuration is not favorable for precipitation in the High Plains
as the better moisture will be shunted off to the east. The models are
showing less and less potential for rainfall over western and central
Kansas with each run which makes sense. The biggest impact this will
have is another shot of cooler temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday as another cold front pushes through. Temperatures on
Thursday may struggle to get out of the 50s. Frost could again be
a problem especially around Thursday morning. Upper level ridging
builds back into the central part of the country by the upcoming
weekend. Temperatures should be warming back into the 70s to
around 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
VFR expected through TAF pd. SW winds 12-25 kt bcmg N tgnt w fropa.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Another day of deep atmospheric mixing coupled with downslope flow
will result in hot and dry conditions. Relative humidity levels
should drop into the single digits to around 10 percent. A little
more uncertainty as to the strength of the winds but think we should
see at least frequent gusts to 25 mph to reach Red Flag criteria.
Given the warmer temperatures, think that sufficiently low relative
humidity levels should reach the Highway 183 corridor. Have added
the area from Edwards and Pawnee counties up to Trego and Ellis
counties into the warning for this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 48 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 98 45 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 95 46 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 99 47 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 93 48 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 97 53 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-
084>089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
734 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 432 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
00Z raobs/latest wv imagery and RAP analysis show a potent shrtwv
lifting newd thru the nrn plains toward Lk Winnipeg, accompanied by
12hr h5 hgt falls aprchg 100m. Strong llj with h85 s winds up to
50kts over MN and vigorous theta-e advctn/isentropic ascent/steep
mid lvl lapse rates shown on the 00Z MPX raob in advance of this
feature and warm fnt moving thru the Upr Midwest is causing an area
of showers/TS over the wrn Great Lks into wrn Upr MI. A few of the
storms turned strong, producing marginally svr hail at Rockland in
Ontonagon County. There is a break in the pcpn over the nrn Plains
under the influence of drier mid lvl air depicted at h7, but another
shrtwv lifting into the nrn Rockies is causing an area of colder cld
tops/pcpn to aprch the nw Plains.
Main fcst concerns in the short term focus on pop/convective trends
tday associated with vigorous waa ahead of shrtwv lifting into
scentral Canada. As the shrtwv now aprchg the nrn Rockies aprchs
tngt, focus wl shift to pops/convection associated with that feature.
Today...Band of showers/TS under llj/axis of deep lyr qvector cnvgc/
mucapes up to about 1000-1200 j/kg wl move e acrs the area this mrng
with this dynamic forcing before arrival of mid lvl drying/
stabilization in the wake of the sharper forcing results in
diminishing pops w-e thru the day. Considering the instability and
effective lyr shear within the elevated convection, not out of the
question some of the storms this mrng could cause some svr hail. The
best chc for some lingering showers/TS thru the day wl be over the
scentral, where the aprchg warm fnt is fcst to stall out. H85 temps
are fcst to peak arnd 15C over the far scentral, but plenty of
lingering lo clds wl hold down max temps. Still, max temps arnd 70
with dewpts over 60 wl make the day feel warm and humid.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 451 AM EDT MON OCT
17 2016
Busy morning watching convection and shuffling of duties, so will be
brief and hit the highlights. Nam shows a broad 500 mb trough over
the western U.S. 12z Tue with a shortwave over the upper Great
Lakes. The broad trough in the western U.S. heads east and carves
out a deep trough in the upper Great Lakes by 12z Thu. GFS and ECMWF
show about the same thing as well. Overall, did not make too many
changes to the going forecast for temperatures. As for pops, have
categorical in for tonight in the evening with second wave moving
through and then clear it out pretty rapidly with drying Tue
morning. Dry weather continues then into Wed night.
In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough over the
central U.S. 12z Thu with 850 mb temperatures over Lake Superior
around -3C. This upper trough continues to dig into the ern U.S. 12z
Fri with 850 mb temperatures across Lake Superior remaining around
-3C. A 500 mb ridge then starts to build into the desert sw 12z Sat
with a shortwave that moves to the north of the upper Great Lakes.
Broad troughing then continues over the upper Great Lakes into Sun.
Temperatures look to stay near normal for this forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 733 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
Although the larger area of showers and TS have moved off to the e
of the TAF sites, lingering llvl mstr to the n of an aprchg warm fnt
wl allow plenty of lo clds to linger. The best chc for persistent
IFR cigs wl be at SAW, where the llvl sse wind wl upslope. Enuf dry
air may reach the w to allow for at least marginal VFR conditions at
IWD and CMX this aftn. As another disturbance aprchs late today/
tngt, another area of showers wl overspread the area. A TS wl be
psbl, mainly at SAW and IWD closer to a stnry fnt over srn Upr MI.
Conditions wl deteriorate into the LIFR range at all the TAF sites.
A wshft to the wnw in the wake of this disturbance wl draw some dry
air into the area and allow for an improvement to MVFR by late tngt.
The one exception wl be at CMX, where the llvl flow wl present a
sharper upslope wind component and allow IFR cigs to linger thru 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 451 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016
Two gale events for this forecast period. First one is happening now
early this morning with easterly gales out ahead of a warm front and
winds rapidly came up early this morning across the west. These
winds come down fairly quickly. A low pressure system will move
northeast near into Upper MI tonight. This will allow strong
northwest winds to gust up to 30 kts to develop in its wake, mainly
over eastern Lake Superior, before weakening to about 20 kts or less
Tuesday night thru Thursday as high pressure approaches. This will
have to be watched though as there could be a very brief period of
some gale force gusts behind this low as a tight pressure gradient
occurs and would not be surprised to have a second event gale for a
short period of time across the eastern lake tonight.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ264-266-267.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LSZ263.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Water vapor imagery this morning depicts a shortwave trough
lifting northeast into the western portions of North Dakota. In
response, the sfc trough axis currently over central Kansas
gradually lifts and deepens northeast into Nebraska this
afternoon, tightening the pressure gradient and wind speeds as a
result. Sustained speeds this morning are already between 15 and
20 mph, likely to increase from 20 to 25 mph generally along and
south of Interstate 70. Vicinity to the trough axis center over
north central Kansas will temper southwest winds slightly to
around 15 mph sustained. As temperatures start off a few degrees
warmer than anticipated in the middle to upper 60s, warm air
surging northward through the day is forecast to raise high temps
to near record readings. Still some uncertainty as to how well we
mix out the inversion layer at 850 mb. Recent runs of the HRRR and
RAP completely mix out the boundary layer, bringing 23 to 25C
temps down towards the sfc. The NAM has a stronger inversion layer
and even stratus this morning at TOP which is not appearing to pan
out by observational trends. Because of this, believe that the 00Z
NAM may be underestimating the mixing aspect. For this reason, I
went a few degrees warmer than the NAM, closer to the MET and MAV
guidance with highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s. There is a
slight concern for fire weather given the strong winds and lower
dewpoints forecast for today. See the fire weather discussion
below for more details.
For tonight, skies remain mostly clear. All models are trending the
cold front a bit faster through the CWA overnight as winds calm below
10 mph. Not expecting any precipitation, however could see some low
clouds develop ahead of the boundary across southeast Kansas by 12Z.
Dewpoints will quickly drop off into the 30s while lows fall to the
50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Cooler weather is anticipated for the Tuesday through Sunday
period as a couple pushes of cold air move through the plains.
The initial cold front should be all but through the forecast
area by sunrise Tuesday. This modified pacific airmass should
cool temps off into the 70s for highs Tuesday. The stronger surge
of cold air looks to come in Wednesday night and Thursday with a
little more Canadian influence to the surface ridge. Because of
this highs should fall back into the 60s Thursday. By the end of
the week and over the weekend, mid level heights are progged to
increase as an upper ridge builds in over the southern plains.
This should allow temps to moderate and gradually trend back into
the 70s.
Precip chances do not look all that impressive through the period.
The best forcing appears to move through Wednesday and Wednesday
night as a shortwave moves out of the Rockies and amplifies over
the plains. However the deeper moisture is expected to be just
southeast of the forecast area thanks to the initial cold front,
and there does not appear to be a whole lot of saturation with the
shortwave. There may be an isolated shower Wednesday or Wednesday
night, but given the limited moisture and a general lack of
instability based on the GFS forecast soundings have trended more
towards a dry forecast.
The one thing for later shifts to watch is the potential for some
weak moisture advection into east central KS Tuesday night that
may lead to some elevated showers. The GFS and ECMWF do not push
the front very far southeast of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Some pressure falls along the boundary try to swing 850MB winds
back to the south and develop some moisture advection. If the
front stalls out a little further northwest, elevated precip may
have a better chance of developing over eastern KS Tuesday night.
By Thursday, dry air with little or no large scale forcing is
expected thanks to the developing upper ridge to the south.
Therefore a dry forecast is expected to persist through the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
VFR prevails at terminals through forecast period with main
concern being winds. Strong southerly winds persist through 23Z
from 17 to 22 kts sustained with gusts in excess of 30 kts at
times. Winds calm below 10 kts as they veer to the northwest
overnight with the frontal passage.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
As the sfc trough lifts northeast this afternoon, much drier air
moves into north central Kansas, dropping minimum humidity values
between 22 and 27 percent in the late afternoon. Southerly winds
remain gusty this morning through sunset at 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. Main uncertainty is the status of the fuels
in the area. In the past few weeks, low lying areas may have
reached a hard freeze while most locations remained in the lower
30s. For this reason, plan on not issuing headlines for today, but
it is a good idea to be mindful if a controlled burn is planned.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Record High Record Warmest Low
Topeka
Today 90 66
Concordia
Today 90 65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Prieto
FIRE WEATHER...Prieto
CLIMATE...Prieto
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
343 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles just off the southeast coast through
tonight. The high slides southeast of the area through
midweek...bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area
through the work week. A cold front crosses the region Friday,
bringing near seasonable temperatures back to the region for the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Warm afternoon across the region, with temperatures generally in
the low 80`s (8-10 degrees above normal). Warm temperatures are
the result of return flow on the backside of surface high pressure
centered along the North Carolina coast and building heights
aloft. Per latest RAP analysis, 850mb temperatures have warmed to
around 13-14C. A surface trough over the Piedmont and a weak
disturbance aloft has resulted in scattered to broken mid level
clouds across the Piedmont into southern Virginia. Bumped sky
cover up to partly sunny in those areas. Sunny to mostly sunny
elsewhere. Warm temperatures aloft and limited moisture will keep
the area dry.
For tonight, high pressure slides offshore as low pressure lifts
into the Great Lakes region. The combination of a drier boundary
layer than last night and a southwest wind around 5 mph will limit
fog/stratus tonight. Although, patchy fog still possible over the
Piedmont and southern Virginia late tonight. Lows generally in the
low 60`s, or 10-15 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Heights build over the local area as the strong/anomalous upper
ridge builds into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday. Surface high pressure
slides offshore. 850Mb temps warm to +15-17C (+1 standard
deviation). Warm temperatures aloft combined with deep layer west
to southwest flow will push daytime temps toward record territory.
Highs Tuesday generally in the low to mid 80`s under a clear to
mostly clear sky. Cooler along the coast. Mild Tuesday night with
lows in the low to mid 60`s under a clear sky. The upper high
centers over the Southeast Wednesday, resulting in the warmest day
of the period. Record temperatures appear possible with highs
solidly in the mid 80`s inland. Low to mid 80`s southeast and
cooler along the coast. Forecast highs are generally 12-16 degrees
above normal. However, low-level thickness regressions and ECMWF
MOS guidance indicate temps could warm into the upper 80`s. A
frontal boundary drops into the northern Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday afternoon. Higher dewpoints pool along the boundary,
resulting in some marginal instability into the Maryland Eastern
Shore. However, with the upper ridge over the region, warm
temperatures aloft expected to suppress any convection Wednesday
afternoon across the northeast forecast area. Will keep the
forecast dry. Mild again Wednesday night with lows generally in
the mid 60`s. Heights and 850mb temperatures begin to decrease
Thursday ahead of a deepening, upstream trough and associated cold
front. A disturbance near the Bahamas also progged to lift
northward Thursday. The local area will be in the middle of these
two features, with subsidence and limited moisture keeping the
forecast dry through late Thursday. Daytime temperatures still
several degrees above normal, with highs generally in the upper
70`s to low 80`s. Sky averages mostly sunny.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mild/warm wx continues into Fri then a return to more seasonable
conditions from the weekend into early next week. High pres sfc-
aloft hangs on invof fa Thu night into Fri morning then breaks down.
Sharp trough aloft to track through the OH/TN valleys Thu night into
Fri...then continue E to off the E coast on Sat. 12Z/16 GFS has come
more in line w/ 00Z/16 ECMWF wrt timing arrival of that system
across the FA. Will have gradual increase in clouds and PoPs from W-
E Fri...w/ high chc-likely PoPs Fri night then decreasing Sat as
drying WNW flow takes over. Cooler and dry wx Sat afternoon through
Mon.
Lows Thu night from the u50s-l60s. Highs Fri mainly 70-75F. Low Fri
night from the l50s W to u50s at the coast. Highs Sat from the l60s
W to u60s E. Lows Sat and Sun nights from the m40s (well) inland to
the l50s at the coast. Highs Sun/Mon mainly in the m-u60s.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 17z...Surface high resides over the Southeast States with
upper level ridging from the Southern Great Plains to the Tennessee
Valley. Little change is expected in the overall pattern through
Wednesday with the upper level ridging strengthening from the Lower
Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas.
A mainly clear sky is expected with just a few cumulus this
afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible in a few areas Tuesday
morning especially in the Piedmont but did not include at the TAF
sites mainly due to a steady light wind.
Outlook: Dry weather/VFR conditions are expected to persist through
Thursday. No significant fog is expected. The next chance for
showers arrives Friday as a cold front crosses the area. Dry weather
returns for Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Sfc hi pres will reside over the Carolinas through Tue...resulting
in SSW winds aob 10 kt and seas 2-4 ft/waves 1-2 ft. Meanwhile, a
sfc low pushing through the Upper Great Lakes Mon night and across
SE Canada Tue/Tue night will briefly tighten the sfc pressure
gradient over the waters Tue aftn/night. SSW winds will average 10-
20 kt all waters during that timeframe. Hi pres briefly rebounds
over the Carolinas Wed through Thu as an upper trough/sfc cold front
begins to sharpen invof MS valley into OH/TN valleys. Winds will be
mainly S aob 10kt with seas 2-3 ft/waves 1-2 ft.
The cold front will be approaching the waters on Friday while low
pres deepens well ESE of Cape Hatteras. The cold front (crossing the
mid Atlantic) should keep the low well out to sea Fri night/early
Sat. Expecting lo lvl CAA and increased WNW winds (for period of
SCAs) post cold front Sat...waning by Sun (afternoon).
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The experimental total water level hydrographs are unavailable at
this time. We hope to have the information back available soon. In
the meantime, please refer to VIMS or MDL tidal data.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Very warm conditions this week with the possibility of challenging
some records listed below:
* Record Highs
* Today (10/17) Tue (10/18) Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20)
* RIC 86 (1925) 88 (1938) 87 (1938) 89 (1984)
* ORF 87 (1925) 86 (2011) 87 (2007) 87 (1984)
* SBY 87 (1908) 86 (1908) 84 (1938) 84 (1984)
* Record high Mins:
* Tue (10/18) Wed (10/19) Thu (10/20)
* RIC 67 (1980) 73 (2007) 68 (1916)
* ORF 68 (1980) 73 (2007) 70 (1916)
* SBY 70 (1975) 71 (2007) 68 (1916)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/SAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
442 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift northward across the region tonight into
early Tuesday morning. Record to near record warmth is likely on
Tuesday. A cold front will slowly settle southeast across the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing isolated to scattered
showers. Above normal temperatures will continue Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 430 PM EDT...A warm front remains positioned south of
Albany in the mid Hudson Valley late this afternoon. Mostly cloudy
skies encompassing much of the region north of the warm front,
with some noted breaks in the clouds across portions of Ulster,
Dutchess, and southern Litchfield counties south of the warm
front. Temperatures were in the 60s north of the boundary, with
70s south.
This warm front will gradually lift northward across the region
tonight into early Tuesday morning. Convergence along the front
along with an upper level disturbance moving through should result
in progression of an MCS moving eastward across extreme SE Ontario.
Latest hi-res model guidance including the HRRR and the NSSL WRF
indicate the MCS will move across areas mainly just north of our
forecast area this evening. However, it will be close enough to
mention chance pops for showers/thunder across the western/central
Adirondacks, as this area may get brushed by some of the convective
activity. Instability is elevated, so main threats are some possible
brief downpours/lightning. Much of the area should remain dry
though, with just an isolated shower or two possible.
Trends will be for drying conditions overnight into early Tuesday
morning as the warm front pushes northward. Minimum temperatures
will be very mild tonight, ranging from mid 50s to lower 60s across
the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Record to near-record warm temperatures will be the main story on
Tuesday. Once remaining cloud cover scours out during the morning,
ample sunshine and an anomalously warm air mass with decent mixing
will lead to temperatures soaring into the upper 70s to lower 80s
across most of the area. Some mid 80s are possible in the mid Hudson
Valley, where some downsloping off the Catskills may occur with a
borderline S/SW low level flow. It will be an increasingly breezy
day as well, due to a deepening low pressure system tracking near
the south end of Hudson`s Bay and resulting strong pressure
gradient. Winds of 10 to 20 mph will be common, with gusts of 30+
mph possible in favored S-N oriented valleys and the higher terrain.
Here are the current Record highs for Tuesday, October 18th:
Albany NY: 82 degrees set back in 1968
Glens Falls NY: 76 degrees set back in 1968
Poughkeepsie NY: 82 degrees set back in 1963
While it is unusual to have such pronounced warmth so late in the
season, it is not unprecedented. The latest date the tempertures has
reached 80+ degrees in Albany occurred on November 2 in both 1982
(81 degrees) and 1950 (82 degrees).
A weak cold front approaching from the Great Lakes, will be
positioned just west of the area by late in the day. A few showers
will be possible across ahead of the front in the western
Adirondacks. The cold front will gradually cross the entire region
Tuesday night, bringing mainly isolated to scattered light showers.
Not much of a temperature contrast behind the cold front for
Wednesday, with the only discernible change being lower dewpoints.
So, another day of well above normal temperatures is expected with
highs ranging from the mid 60s across the western Adirondacks to
lower 80s in the mid Hudson Valley.
Dry conditions should persist through Wednesday evening with high
pressure moving overhead, but the high will rapidly retreat into
northern New England as a low pressure system starts to approach from
the Ohio Valley region late Wednesday night. There are some model
differences with timing of rain arriving, so will just mention low
chance pops overnight for now.
A better chance of rain should arrive on Thursday, as an inverted
surface trough associated with the aforementioned low spreads
rainfall into our area. As of now, it appears the best likelihood
for widespread rainfall would be for areas north of I-90, closer to
where the trough sets up. Temps will be cooler along and north of
the trough, with warmer readings across southern portions of the
area.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term will be marked by a long wave trough taking up
residence over the eastern U.S. This will bring about cooler
temperatures and better chances for precipitation.
Some differences in the models to start the period off with the Euro
tracking a deep low west of the region and the GFS pushing a series
of weaker lows across the area. Both scenarios bring some
precipitation to the region with another day with temperatures above
normal. Model trends are for the heaviest rain to fall to the west
of the forecast area across western NY.
For Saturday through Monday a decided cool down is in store for the
region. The Euro is more aggressive in keeping colder air across the
area than the GFS. Look for temperatures to slide back to near or
possibly slightly below normal levels. Precipitation looks to be on
the lighter side during this period. Some of the higher elevations
could see some light snow or a mix of rain and snow during this time.
A tropical system currently over the southeast Bahamas is being
monitored by the National Hurricane Center. The NHC gives this
system a 60 percent of development over the next 5 days. Please
refer to the NHC for information on development potential.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The stalled boundary across the mid Hudson Valley will lift
northward as a warm front tonight. MVFR-VFR ceilings are
occurring in the vicinity of the boundary especially to the north.
Showers and thunderstorms are moving along the warm front across
the Great lakes region this afternoon and guidance indicates
these storms should move across northern New York State and may
graze KGFL tonight. Have indicate the threat at KGFL with a VCSH
in the TAF. Otherwise precipitation is not expected at the other
TAFs. As the warm front lifts northward the cloud cover will
decrease to the south of boundary. This along with light/variable
to calm winds and low level moisture fog is expected to develop
overnight with MVFR-IFR conditions expected. Once in the warm
sector a southerly flow will develop Tuesday morning and the
atmosphere will mix lifting and dissipating the fog. The southerly
winds are expected to increase to 8 to 10 knots with gusts into
the teens at KALB and KGFL by late morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A warm front will lift northward across the region tonight into
early Tuesday morning. Record to near record warmth is likely on
Tuesday. A cold front will slowly settle southeast across the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing isolated to scattered
showers. Above normal temperatures will continue Wednesday.
Relative humidity values will increase to around 90 to 100 percent
tonight, then drop to minimum values of between 40 and 50 percent
Tuesday afternoon. RH values will increase to around 80 to 100
percent Tuesday night.
Winds tonight will be southerly around 5 to 10 mph, increasing to 10
to 15 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph. Winds will shift to the
southwest Tuesday night around 5 to 15 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A few showers and even some thunderstorms will be possible across
mainly northern portions of the area through this evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions and record to near record warmth is
expected for Tuesday.
A cold front will slowly settle southeast across the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday, with isolated to scattered showers possible.
Overall, rainfall amounts through Wednesday should remain light,
generally under one tenth of an inch.
The weather is then expected to turn unsettled, possibly bringing
needed rainfall to the region for the latter part of the work week.
There is possibility for a widespread, soaking rainfall for at least
portions of the region, especially north of I-90.
The latest US Drought Monitor continues to show drought conditions
have worsen across portion of the area. Precipitation departures
this calendar year are 5 to 15 inches below normal, with the
greatest departures across southeastern parts of the HSA.
As a result, streamflow and ground water levels have been running
well below normal.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...KL/JPV
LONG TERM...OKeefe
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
215 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
The main concern in this period is with the rain chances tonight.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows a short wave trough
coming across Wyoming into Nebraska. This wave will continue to
move east/northeast tonight and should reach northeast Wisconsin
into the eastern part of the U.P. of Michigan by early Tuesday
morning. The wave does come through with a bit of a positive tilt
which will keep the best pv advection on the poleward side with
just some weak pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer coming across
the northern sections of the forecast area. A strong upper level
jet will come through with the short wave trough, but both the
17.12Z NAM and several runs of the RAP today indicate that most of
the area will be under the right exit region of this jet and the
subsidence associated with it.
At the surface, a low was over the Missouri River Valley near
KSUX. A cold front extended northeast from the low into northern
Wisconsin. This surface low will continue to deepen through the
day and move rapidly northeast along the cold front reaching Lake
Superior by 06Z. Visible satellite is showing an extensive low
cloud shield out ahead of the surface low in the warm sector and
even if this does start to break up at this point, there will not
be enough hours of heating to significantly add to the CAPE.
Despite this, with the unusually warm and moist airmass already in
place, ML CAPES values are in the 1000-1500 J/kg range ahead of
the cold front. Looking at the latest RAP soundings for KEAU and
KRCX, the cap in place gets weakened but may not get totally
eliminated. If this is the case, then the threat for getting
surface based storms appears to be slim, pretty much ruling out a
tornado threat. The MU CAPE does extend farther back to the
northwest into the cool sector which could still be enough to
support a large hail and damaging wind threat. The timing of any
severe threat still looks to be from late this afternoon into
early this evening before the surface low moves into the area and
pushes the CAPE out of the area. The latest sets of hi- res meso
scale models all seem to have a good handle on how things should
develop through the afternoon into the evening with the best
chances for storms generally remaining just to the northwest of
the forecast area into Clark and Taylor Counties. Plan to show a
60 to 80 percent rain chance for Clark and Taylor and then quickly
drop this down to less than a 15 percent south of Interstate 90.
This should then lift out to the northeast through the night with
the entire area expected to be rain free by late tonight.
The rest of the period looks to be dry, although another positive
tilt short wave trough looks to come across the region Wednesday
night. This wave should go south of the local area which with the
positive tilt, could bring some lift to the southern sections of
the forecast area. The front that goes through the region tonight
will be over the Ohio River Valley and there is concern whether
there will be enough moisture behind this front for the short wave
trough to work with. The 17.12Z NAM and GFS keep the area dry
while the ECMWF and GEM do show some light rain. For now, will
maintain forecast continuity and stay with a dry forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Not many changes in this period as the GFS and ECMWF are still in
agreement with a longwave trough moving through the area and bringing
seasonable temperatures. Much of the period also looks dry, though
the ECMWF has consistently hinted that a shortwave may move through
Friday night into Saturday morning and bring a bit of precipitation.
While the GFS does show a similar feature, it has it farther north
and not nearly as amplified, therefore keeping all of the
precipitation north. Beyond Saturday, northwest flow will dominate
and temperatures will remain near normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Copious VFR/MVFR stratocumulus in place across the area in muggy
southerly flow ahead of deepening low pressure over eastern NEB.
There is a severe storm potential, but this is looking to be north
of a line from Lake City MN to Black River Falls WI. This being
said, KRST/KLSE look to be void of shra/ts potential for now and
just mainly impacted with the stratocumulus. As the low pressure
system moves through northern WI by late this evening, look for
south/southwest winds to shift to the west/northwest. after
05-06z. By 14z...stratocumulus looks to be pushed southeast of the
area with VFR conditions then expected from 14-18z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...DAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
605 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift northeast through the region tonight.
Temperatures will be very warm south of the warm front on Tuesday,
but north of the front it will be cooler with showers expected. As
low pressure moves through Quebec, it will drag a cold front into
New England Tuesday night. This front will linger offshore before
lifting back north as a warm front Thursday into Thursday night
with more showers possible. Low pressure tracking through the
Great Lakes will bring another cold front toward the area Friday
into Friday night, more showers possible ahead of it.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM Update...Very minor adjustments to the going forecast based
on latest trends in radar/satellite and other observational data.
The pleasant evening will continue for most...with showers
expected to arrive in the western zones around midnight. MCS over
Lake Ontario as of 22z will most likely weaken significantly and
perhaps fall apart before making it as far east as the CT river
valley. A few showers may survive and if they do would affect
western NH around midnight give or take an hour.
Previously...
For tonight will see increasing warm air advection bring mid to
high clouds into the region this evening, with potential lower
stratus developing closer to the coast as Tds and temps come
together. Watching cluster of convection currently moving across
Ontario, which is associated with 850mb speed max and tightening
thermal gradient. Nam12 keeps bulk of precip N of the CWA, while
18Z HRRR is pushing convection further S into NH and ME, but
weakening /although previous runs kept it stronger as it moved
into NH. This will be the rain maker as it moves along the front
late tonight into early Tuesday...if it holds together northern
and western zones could see a quarter to half inch, and some
possible thunder, if not, most areas will be limited to a quarter
of an inch or less. lows should drop off enough early to bring the
mountains down into the mid to upper 40s, and everywhere else into
the 50s, but the temp fall will slow a great deal after midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Models have been fairly persistent with keeping the cooler in
place in all but srn NH and Ct vly as pseudo cold air damming
situation with SE flow holding back the warm air in all but York
county ME through most of the day. So highs will vary quite a bit,
reaching well into the 70s in the souther tier of NH counties and
into the low to mid 70s in the CT valley, perhaps as far north as
KHIE. These areas will break into partly to mostly skies in the
afternoon. The question is how far on the coastal plain can the
warm air make make it before sunset. Will hold the areas to highs
around 60, with interior foothill and mountain areas in western
ME limited to the mid-upper 50s. Any morning showers should end
across all but FRanklin and somerset counties, where some
dynamics could persist into the afternoon.
Cold front will approach from the west Tue evening and will
increase the chance of showers in the N and W, but will likely
weaken as they head toward the coast, and should the htreat of any
SHRA diminish after midnight. Lows will be balmy for the third
week of October, generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds into the area from the west on Wednesday with
another day of warm temperatures expected. Highs for most of the
area will be in the 70s, with a few 80s possible in southern New
Hampshire. Increased moisture will also keep nighttime lows much
above normal.
A large upper level trough sharpens over the western Great Lakes
and Mississippi Valley on Thursday which will drive cyclogenesis
over the eastern Great Lakes. Expect an onshore easterly flow over
northern New England on Thursday and an increasing chance of
showers as a warm front sharpens to our south. This warm front
will lift north into Canada Thursday night into Friday morning
while the surface low tracks through the Saint Lawrence Valley or
upstate New York. Models disagree on how sharp the upper trough
will be and as a result disagree on the resulting track of the
surface low, but there is broad agreement that there will be a
period of rain beginning on Thursday and lasting through at least
Friday night. Both the GFS and ECMWF pull in moisture from a weak
tropical low off the east coast as well, which could help produce
heavy rain somewhere, but where that may be will depend on the
track.
The core of the upper trough moves into the Northeast on Saturday
and lingers through the weekend. This will bring cooler
temperatures and a good deal of cloud cover through the weekend.
The GFS maintains a threat of showers through the whole weekend as
its upper low drags through while the ECMWF is drier and colder.
It is possible that the remaining areas which haven`t frozen yet
could see their first freeze late this weekend or early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will hold through sunset with low clouds
developing around or after midnight, and IFR conditions expected
toward daybreak and lingering through most of Tue morning.
KMHT/KLEB/KHIE should improve to VFR in the afternoon, with MVFR
lingering elsewhere through the evening. Could see improvement to
VFR late Tuesday night after cold front passes.
Long Term...Should see mostly VFR conditions Wednesday, but
conditions deteriorate Thursday in an onshore flow with increasing
clouds and showers. IFR or LIFR conditions are possible Thursday
through Friday night. Could see an improvement to VFR this
weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA issued for increasing SW flow ahead of a cold
front Tuesday afternoon through Tue evening. Winds seas will
diminish late Tue night.
Long Term...A frontal boundary which moves into the Gulf of Maine
late Tuesday night will linger just outside the Gulf of Maine
before pushing back north as a warm front Thursday into Thursday
night. It is possible that southerly flow behind the warm front
and ahead of the advancing cold front could bring wind gusts to 25
KT over the waters on Friday. Winds behind the cold front may be a
bit stronger Friday night into Saturday though the timing is still
uncertain.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
We`re currently in the period of high astronomical tides.
High tides of note are referenced to the Portland Harbor tide gage
where flood stage is 12 ft mllw. It won`t take much onshore wind
or wave action to cause issues along the coast and the situation will
be watched closely through late this week.
In particular...in the strengthening southeasterly flow on
Tuesday could bring Portland to just above the 12 ft flood
stage...so worth watching as some uncertainty exists with the
wind forecast.
1251 AM Tue 11.0 ft mllw
108 PM Tue 11.7 ft mllw
200 PM Wed 11.5 ft mllw
256 PM Thu 11.1 ft mllw
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
for ANZ150>152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
...Critical Fire Weather conditions continuing into this evening...
Strong winds and critical fire weather conditions will continue
across the district this evening until winds decouple and/or the
arrival of a cold front brings slightly higher humidity levels into
eastern portions of the area. The cold front is evident in latest
radar loops across northeast El Paso county extending eastward
across northern Kiowa county. HRRR seems to be a little slow with
its progression westward and southward. Front should move through
most of the southeast plains by 04z. This will shift winds out of
the northeast to east across the plains with the front banking up
along the east slopes of the southeast mountains overnight.
Meanwhile...winds across the mountains have already started to
decrease below high wind criteria as the mountain wave has broken
down. Its will remain windy through 6 PM due to deep mixing though
think the gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range will stay confined to the
highest peaks. Gusts in the 40 to 50 mph will continue for the lower
eastern slope regions until 6 PM...but should gradually decrease
after that. Have taken down the high wind warning as damaging wind
gusts in excess of 75 mph are no longer expected. Will leave the Red
Flag warning up until 9 PM...though suspect that eastern portions of
the area may be able to be cancelled earlier as humidities come up
behind the front.
For tomorrow...temperatures will be quite a bit cooler across the
area...with readings down around climatological normals. Winds
across the southeast plains and lower eastern slopes of the
southeast mountains will be lighter tomorrow...though gusty winds
will likely resurface across the mountains and interior valleys once
again. However with the cooler temperatures expected...humidity
levels should stay above the 15 percent critical threshold for Fire
Weather concerns. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
...Very dry conditions continue...
Extended forecast looks pretty quiet. Cooler conditions through mid
week, followed by gradual warming as high pressure builds strongly
over the W US.
Any chance of precip for our area will come Tue night, as a trough
moves through N CO. Precip will be confined to Mts of Lake and
Chaffee County. Could see an inch or so over the Dvd by Wed morning
before things rapidly clear out behind the system Wed morning.
Cannot rule out some snowflakes over the Pikes Peak region, but
probability is low so will keep POPs silent outside the Central Mts.
Main impact will be continued cooling, with highs Wed closer to
average, or in the 60s over the Plains and 50s high valleys.
Beyond Wed, a broad ridge will strengthen and build from the west,
resulting in decreasing winds and increasing temps across our
area. Could see highs once again around 80 degrees for the Plains
by the weekend, and this warm spell will persist through Monday.
next chance of any precip for our area will not come until the day 8-
10 period, as a new W Coast trough begins to move into the Rockies.
Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016
Gusty southwest winds will continue at the terminals through the
evening...with KPUB in a lull region due to its position in the wake
of the Wet mountains and possibly due to the smoke plume overhead.
As the upper flow shifts a bit more northwesterly...think winds will
finally increase at KPUB before the arrival of the front...which
should push into the KCOS area around 23z...and into the KPUB area
around 00Z. This will shift winds out of the ENE at 15-25kts.
Meanwhile...KALS will stay gusty from the southwest until 02z when
winds are anticipated to decouple. Light easterly to southeast winds
will persist for KPUB and KCOS overnight. There is the potential
for a VFR layer around 050 to develop along the east slopes of the
southeast mountains Tuesday morning. Confidence is low as to how
widespread this will be so have a SCT layer in for KCOS for now.
Winds will increase out of the south to southeast at around 10-15
kts for both KCOS and KPUB Tuesday afternoon. Winds at KALS will
increase by late morning with gusts to around 30 kts possible in the
afternoon. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ221-222-
224>237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
315 PM PDT Mon Oct 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather returns to NorCal this week as the storm track
shifts north of the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Short wave energy from the latest wx system has moved well east of
the area diminishing precip over Norcal especially in the valley.
Scattered upslope/orographic showers continue over the Sierra mainly
N of Tahoe due to strong westerly flow from the 130 kt jet stream
lifting slowly Nwd over Norcal. Dual Pol suggests snow levels around
6-6.5 kft...but Hiway cameras indicate mainly wet roads.
The Nrn portion of the forecast area will experience another round
of showers tonite and Tue morning as incoming energy from the
short-wave currently nearing 40N/130W-140W increases large scale
ascent over the region. IR imagery shows the next wave along the
Pac NW/Nrn CA Coast looking quite convective with a mass of open
cellular cumulus N of the jet. This energy will be moving inland
in our area mainly after dark and into Tue morning limiting the
potential for thunder in our CWA. Persistent cloud cover up N and
redeveloping cloud cover from the approaching wave has limited
surface heating and chances for thunder there. Meanwhile, cumulus
has developed in the Srn half of the valley, but weakening dynamics
this afternoon and a slight Nwd shift of the jet has generally
hampered convection there. But, the HRRR REF and current radar
trends suggest an isolated shower/brief sprinkle could develop
over the Central/Srn Sac Vly in the late afternoon or early
evening hours.
Snow levels should drop slightly overnite and Tue morning
as the offshore wave moves inland. We have lowered snow levels to
5000 ft up N to around 6000 ft over the 80/50 corridor. Precip
expected to diminish Tue afternoon over Norcal the fast moving
short-wave moves across the Great Basin and NWly flow aloft
prevails as ridging begins to build into the region.
Ridging will continue to build inland this week, eventually becoming
centered over the Desert SW. Increased subsidence will lead to
warming/drying with winds turning Nly by midweek. Nly winds should
preclude fog over most of the Valley now that the first good rain of
the season has occurred. As cumuliform cloudiness dissipates in the
Valley after dark, and before the onset of more cloudiness from the
approaching short wave up N, can`t rule out some low clouds and fog
forming from the Central Sac Vly Swd into the Nrn SJ Valley Tue
morning. JHM
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
A ridge of high pressure over the west coast will begin shifting
east on Friday. This may provide a degree or two of cooling from
Thursday with perhaps a couple of more degrees of cooling on
Saturday. On Sunday, both the GFS and ECMWF show a trough just off
the west coast which, at the very least, should bring in some high
level clouds to our area. The ECMWF rotates a wave through our
area Sunday night into Monday while the GFS keeps us dry. For now,
we have kept a slight chance of rain for our area on Monday.
Beyond this, the main trough (a cutoff low for the GFS) remains
offshore, between 130-140W for both the GFS and ECMWF. Depending
on its exact position, this could put us in a unsettled weather
pattern. Wilson
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers are expected to continue for the Northern Sacramento
Valley and mountains through this evening. Heavier showers may
contain MVFR conditions for the northern valley. Fog and low
clouds are certainly possible around Sacramento and KSCK tonight
given the light winds and abundant moisture. This is currently
not in the TAF but may have to introduce this next issuance. Winds
switch to the north tomorrow morning with VFR conditions expected
for the valley. Wilson
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$