Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/16/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
949 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Evening Update.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A couple light showers are currently lifting northward over
Tuscaloosa and Bibb counties, while an area of showers and
embedded thunderstorms continues to slowly move west-northwestward
along the Florida/Georgia line. Isentropic lift in southeasterly
low-level flow will result in slight rain chances throughout the
night, mainly across the eastern two-thirds of the area. The
potent but moisture-starved shortwave trough will be in the
process of exiting the area, but 1000-500 mb RH will be increasing
and a cold pool of 500 mb temperatures -10 to -12C will remain
over the area. Some model guidance is indicating potential for
higher rain chances than currently forecast, but this forecaster
remains skeptical, and the HRRR only supports rain chances in the
"slight" category. Any showers should remain light and non-
impactful, with drizzle possible when low stratus develops later
tonight. The only caveat is if the activity along the Florida-
Georgia line can hold together into the far southeastern counties.
With higher dewpoints and cloudcover, overnight lows will remain
mild in the low to mid 60s.
32/Davis
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.
Mixed cig heights across the area this evening, with all heights at
VFR. Isolated showers have dissipated, but cannot rule out an
additional shower overnight as an upper level low crosses the area
but chances are very low.
Southeasterly flow will pull moisture northwestward tonight, and as
low levels saturate with weak lift, expect MVFR cigs to spread
across terminals. Have lowered sct to bkn cigs to 1500-2000ft at all
terminals tonight, with winds generally from the southeast at 5-
6kts. Cigs will improve slowly Sunday morning, with scattered VFR
cigs expected by early afternoon.
14
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values this weekend and into next week will not be
as low as previous days. However, chances of appreciable rainfall
will not return to the forecast until next Thursday. While critical
fire weather conditions are not expected, ground moisture will
continue to remain very low, so conditions will continue to remain
favorable for fires to develop.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 404 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016/
SHORT TERM...
Today through Sunday.
East to southeast flow around the Eastern Conus surface ridge
today. We have had stratus this am and lots of cumulus during the
day as a result of this flow. In the upper levels, an upper
shortwave will progress eastward across the state tonight into
Sunday. Don`t get too excited, we are not expecting any large
amounts, but we may have enough moisture in the column thanks to
this shortwave and the given moisture in the lower levels to
squeeze out a few isolated showers. Have added in some 20 pops to
account for its progression. Due to the increased cloud cover,
expect our overnight low temperatures are a tad milder than last
night.
08
LONG TERM...
Sunday Night through Friday.
An incessant trend of dry weather, above-normal temperatures
headline most of this week; late-week weather maker poised to bring
an opportunity for rain drops and cooler temperatures--
The upper-level pattern for a chunk of the upcoming week is forecast
to consist of an easterly-moving, southern U.S. subtropical ridge
axis, with the system expanding in range. At the surface, downstream
surface ridging and subsequent wind trajectories will keep `dry`
moisture profiles in place; thus, weather will remain tame from day-
to-day, featuring dry conditions and temperatures (both lows and
highs) running above-normal. Even so, nighttime temperatures will
still be pleasantly cool, with daytime temperatures being more
noticeably warm/running around 10 degrees (F) above normal for this
time of year.
Through the week, a mostly zonal jet stream will bypass us well
toward the north thanks to the overhead ridge. An impulse moving
through the Rockies mid-week should result in a sharpening upper
trough, aided by a break in the subtropical ridge spanning the
southern U.S. and Mexico, and continued eastward shift of the
ridge over the southeastern U.S. Unfortunately, due to a
wedge/surface high still extending into Alabama from the east,
moisture/wind streamlines are still not ideal for healthy moisture
transport ahead of an approaching surface front. 12Z models also
continue the theme of differed solutions on the timing of frontal
passage. So, neither adjustments or added detail to the extended
forecast are needed at this time. Precipitation chances will be
maintained around 30%, lining up roughly from late Thursday as a
rough opening window, into Saturday to cover rain potential with
the front and any wrap-around moisture. Post-frontal cooler
temperatures are also expected heading into next weekend.
89/GSatterwhite
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 61 82 57 86 58 / 20 20 0 0 0
Anniston 62 82 59 85 61 / 20 20 0 0 0
Birmingham 66 83 63 87 64 / 20 20 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 64 85 63 88 63 / 20 10 0 0 0
Calera 65 83 63 86 63 / 20 20 0 0 0
Auburn 63 82 61 86 62 / 20 20 0 0 0
Montgomery 66 85 62 88 63 / 20 20 0 0 0
Troy 63 83 60 86 61 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1015 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over New England will drift south over the
next several days. A weak front will dip down from the north late
Sunday, but rebound back to the north on Monday. Near record warm
air will work into the region for mid-week. A cold front is then
expected to move in and stall over the area through the end of
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Wind still up over 5 MPH over much of the area. The lightest
winds will be in the SE where a little fog is probable in the
river valley(s) as temps are already into the 40s. However, temps
may rise a little later tonight - both due to any fog in the east
and the wind in the west as near 60 dewpoints inch closer into wrn
PA. Have adjusted sky a little based on current trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A dying cold front will push across the Eastern Grt Lks Sunday,
perhaps spreading a few showers into the northwest counties toward
evening. Latest guidance continues to indicate best chc shra after
21z over the northwest mountains and west central mountains.
Southwest flow ahead of the front will push 850/925MB temps well
above seasonal norms, supporting max temps in the low to mid 70s.
Model RH time sections indicate most areas will see partly sunny
skies on average Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Not a lot of changes made to the package.
A weakening frontal system from the Great Lakes will stall
near the NY, PA border Sunday Night. Some showers will be
possible, as dewpoints come up into the 50s. Light QPF amounts
<0.25 inches expected.
There are two main weather themes emerging in the latest model
and ensemble data for next week:
1) A period of mainly dry and unseasonably warm temperatures into
midweek (Mon-Wed) with max/min temp departures +10 to +20 degrees
above normal for mid-October.
850 MB temperatures fcst to be plus 20 degrees across NW Ohio
by 00Z Tuesday.
Did edge temperatures up a little in some spots from Monday
into Wednesday.
Potential to get well into the 80s, if we can mix the SW flow
real good.
2) Following the warm spell, a trend toward a cooler and wet
weather from the second half of next week into the weekend, as
a deepening upper level trough over the Miss Valley interacts
with a stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity of PA.
Weighted fcst toward EC a little more than the GFS. Did edge
pops down some on day 7, from what the Superblend was showing.
12Z GFS faster than earlier runs, so will see what happens.
Either way, looking at cooler temperatures later in the week.
Also potential for a period of heavier rain, if system becomes negative
tilt.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR this evening but patchy valley fog again likely especially in
the Susq River Valley toward sunrise Sunday. Have put in some
low scattered cigs but given updated models could increase to BKN.
Latest SREF and HRRR shows moisture pooling in central PA valleys
so main TAF sites affected will be AOO, UNV, MDT and LNS though
possibly BFD. IFR at AOO and UNV should only last for a few hours
but in the case of MDT and LNS could be intermittent between 07Z
to 13Z. Warmer minimum Temperatures tonight with light winds will
only increase the chances for it to occur.
The next frontal system will bring a chance of showers later
Sunday into Monday (mainly to the north). This could be preceded
by a period of cig restrictions late Sat night into Sunday.
Outlook...
Sun...Patchy AM Fog. PM showers cig reductions possible north.
Mon...Showers cig reductions possible, mainly north.
Tue...Improving conditions.
Wed...Chance showers and poss reductions NW half.
Thu...Chance of showers.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner/Martin
AVIATION...DeVoir/Ceru
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
809 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Increased fog coverage across the NE zones to widespread for later
tonight along with WFO Goodland. After coordination with WFO
Goodland and Hastings, will make a decision about whether to issue
a dense fog advisory by 10 pm. Fog is most likely NE of Dodge
City tonight, as moisture advects NW along an old frontal
boundary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Main concern in the short term will be fog potential tonight. All
the short term high res models show rather substantial area of 1/4
mile or less visibility in post-frontal light upslope flow. The
front (although not really much of one, from a temperature
gradient perspective) will stall out with the winds gaining some
upslope component after dark. Lower 60s dewpoints in south central
and central KS will pool along the boundary and even begin to
slowly advect back to the northwest. Mostly clear sky and light
upslope component winds with trapped, high quality low level
moisture should lead to widespread development of fog as models
suggest. The grids will carry "Areas of fog", but widespread dense
fog will certainly be a possibility. The evening shift will need
to monitor observation trends and hourly HRRR for guidance and
further forecast adjustment. A dense fog advisory may be issued
later if confidence increases.
Going into Sunday, remnant fog and low level stratus will hang
around through late morning, per WRF and NAM12 models. This will
slow the warming potential up north, especially near Hays.
SuperBlend guidance has a high of 88 at Hays, and this may be a
bit optimistic, considering the aforementioned reasoning of low
clouds first half of the day. South of the front, forecast still
looks pretty good with widespread lower 90s forecast in classic
downslope scenario.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
The hottest day looks to be Monday in this synoptic pattern. In
fact, 850mb temperature from ECMWF would suggest surface
temperatures reaching 94 to 96F for a good portion of southwest KS
south of the Arkansas River, just ahead of an advancing Pacific
cold front -- which is usually when the low level thermal ridge
extends northeast immediately ahead of it. The mid 90s would
smash daily records across our area. The hottest temperature
recorded at Dodge City in the station history after October 15th
is 94 degrees (October 17, 1926). There is a very real chance at
tying or perhaps breaking that record.
After Monday, it will be back to fall temperatures with a fresh
Canadian airmass in place. The frontal passage will be a dry one,
though as the main polar jet will still be to our north through.
Another disturbance, though, quick on its heels will move in and
this will bring a better chance for precipitation, although even
that will be best farther north where the mid level frontogenetic
zone will reside. Much cooler low level temperatures will come in
behind the Wednesday/Thursday front, leading to increased freeze
potential over portions of southwest and west central KS by
Thursday and Friday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
High confidence in widespread fog formation tonight. Short term
models agree on this scenario, as surface winds gain an upslope
SE component and pool moisture along a residual frontal boundary.
Highest confidence in dense fog is at/near HYS, but there is
enough agreement and confidence to include a TEMPO group for
1/4 sm dense fog at DDC/GCK as well. Fog is most likely during
the 09-13z Sun timeframe. By 15z Sunday, VFR returns quickly.
Expect SW winds of 10-20 kts at DDC/GCK, with lighter winds at
HYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
The Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
along/west of Liberal to Garden City to Scott City for Sunday. The
surface winds will be borderline, but with the relative humidity
forecast to be down to around 10 percent over this area for a few
hours. Mixing will be deep and feel there will at least be some
off and on gusts to 25 mph to justify the Red Flag Warning.
A larger area of Red Flag conditions will probably materialize on
Monday with stronger winds in the 850-700mb layer. The thermal
ridge will extend farther northeast as well, allowing the
afternoon RH to fall down to critical areas as far east as perhaps
a Kinsley to Coldwater line.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 53 91 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 49 94 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 54 94 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 52 96 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 54 85 54 90 / 0 10 0 0
P28 62 89 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ Sunday for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-080-084>089.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
915 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Early evening update addressed delay of precip for tomorrow
morning although it will likely be delayed even further into the
early afternoon period. Recent time lapse over Langdon area shows
dry atmosphere below H700 level and although a few sprinkles may
reach the ground, low confidence measurable precipitation will
occur with early swath of precip being progged for the far NW
zones. CONSSHORT continues to do well on temp curve for the
evening and no changes planned.
UPDATE Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Forecast challenge for tonight will be overnight lows and with
clear skies and winds light by late evening, expect temps to drop
well into the low 40s. Current fcst lows look good and no changes
planned. For tomorrow morning, mid-level cigs around 12K to 15K
expected to enter NW zones by 15Z however will not lower to blo
10K until around 15Z. Will remove the early morning mention of
isolated showers from Devils Lake through Towner County until the
late morning, however even then virga is the more likely scenario
until the column begins to saturate. Afternoon POPs look
reasonable with scattered showers along the intl border.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Minimal weather impacts this evening into Sunday morning as
subsidence behind short in Manitoba and lower Pwats continue to
erode clouds from west to east. Winds will decouple tonight and weak
SFC ridging will slide across the FA. As a result a rather warm
column, especially for mid october, will cool quickly and temps fall
into the 30s north to 40s south under the clear skies. Some possible
ground fog formation is a threat, especially across the north where
HOPWRF members and a few HRRR runs are showing some lowered
visibilities.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Another seasonably mild mid-October day is on tap for Sunday ahead
of a pronounced shortwave trough that will eject northeastward along
the international border Sunday Night. Strong 850 mb warm advection
and increasing moisture transport will aid in the development of a
band of showers across the area through the day Sunday into Sunday
Night. Will maintain the highest chances over northwest Minnesota
Sunday evening where PWATs are expected to rise to around an inch.
Model soundings indicate up to 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE by Sunday
afternoon/evening. The elevated instability combined with strong
low/mid level warm advection and increasing forcing from the
approaching upper wave suggests the potential for some thunder by
Sunday afternoon/evening, especially east of the RRV.
Not much of a cool down is expected behind this system for Monday,
with highs remaining in the 60s over much of the region. A strong
300 mb zonal jet will progress into the central/northern plains
Mon/Tue, with a few upper level impulses cascading through the flow,
keeping some potential for some showers over the region, especially
across the south. Otherwise, more substantial cooling will occur
beginning Tuesday with persistent low-level cold advection as the
upper flow becomes northwesterly. The coolest days will likely be
during the mid-week period under surface high pressure before a
gradual rebound in temps occurs by late week. Generally quiet
weather is expected for much of the mid-late week time period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
VFR although modeled winds are a bit lot this evening and will
increase winds above model guidance through 02Z. Mid level cigs
move in during mid-morning hours while SE winds begin to increase
and become gusty in the afternoon hours.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Makowski
AVIATION...Speicher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
739 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
We are seeing strong indicators of possible dense fog late
tonight through mid morning on Sunday. The HRRR, SREF, and RAP are
all indicating the possibility of dense fog with light east winds
in the hours around dawn. The best bet for fog will be along and
south of hwy 30 but could certainly see some fog north of hwy 30
as well. Confidence is not quite there to issue a dense fog
advisory, but it is getting closer. Have updated the hazardous
weather outlook and the forecast grids to make a greater mention
of fog with lower visibilities possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Clouds are finally moving out of the forecast area this afternoon.
There are a few clouds lingering in the far southeast part of the
area. Satellite and observations show some higher clouds that will
move across, but should be only a few at any given time. A cold
front has moved to the southeast of the forecast area today. Winds
are still fairly light and turning to the north.
The front that moved through today will weaken and drift back to the
north tonight and Sunday. Behind the front there is warm advection
and increasing moisture in the lower levels. Expect another round of
stratus and fog across the area toward morning. The low clouds and
fog will linger much of the morning before moving out similar to
this morning. The lingering clouds will keep the temperatures a
little cooler in the northeast than in the remainder of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Sunday night into Monday a surface low and cold front will move
through the forecast area. The cold front will move through the area
mostly during the afternoon on Monday. That will allow for
temperatures on Monday to be the warmest. Highs will be in the 80s
across the area. Monday night will continue to be mild. Tuesday
there is a weak surface high moving through the area and
temperatures will be cooler.
Tuesday night there is an upper wave approaching the area. The
colder air starts to filter into the area. Temperatures will be a
bit cooler and there is a chance for some showers to move into the
west late that night. As the upper wave moves into the area
Wednesday there is a chance for some showers to spread across parts
of the area during the day on Wednesday and across the remainder of
the area Wednesday night. Cooler air continues to move into the
area. The upper wave moves to the east of the area Thursday and
expect mainly dry conditions with a few showers lingering in the far
southeast. A cool high pressure system settles into the area
Thursday and Thursday night with colder air into the area.
Friday and Saturday will be dry. An upper level ridge builds just to
the west of the area and warmer air slowly returns to the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
The main issue will be fog and low ceilings mainly after midnight
through perhaps mid morning. IFR and even LIFR ceilings and
visibility will be possible. Fog is always a challenge to predict
so keep up to date with the latest TAFs and observations as we go
through the night.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wesely
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Wesely
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
850 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather conditions will persist through the
remainder of the weekend with periods of rain expected from
Saturday Night through Sunday Evening. In addition, locally
strong and gusty winds are expected. Showers may linger into
Monday with dry weather conditions returning by Tuesday. A warming
and drying trend is expected for the remainder of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As of 8:50 PM PDT Saturday...Latest frontal system
spread rain across the North Bay late this afternoon and through
the remainder of the SF Bay Area early this evening. Rain rates
were briefly heavy in some locations, but the rain band moved
through rather quickly and so rain totals were mostly light to
moderate. The most rainfall today was in northwest Sonoma County
at Venado where 1.80 inches was recorded. A few other locations in
the North Bay Mountains reported more than an inch, but for the
most part rain totals today were an inch or less in the hills and
generally less than a half inch at lower elevations.
Radar and satellite show the frontal rain band is currently
moving through southern Santa Cruz and southern Santa Clara
counties. Rain rates are mostly light to moderate, including
across the Loma Fire burn scar in the Santa Cruz Mountains.
This evening`s water vapor satellite imagery shows a subtle wave
moving through the moist flow offshore along 35N...out near 135W.
This shortwave will interact with the frontal boundary later this
evening and cause a surface wave to develop along the front
offshore. This in turn will cause the frontal boundary to stall
slightly south of its current position later this evening and
then perhaps shift back north a bit by early Sunday morning. As
the surface wave approaches early Sunday, low level convergence
will be enhanced and precipitation rates will likely increase once
again. The biggest forecast challenge is determining just where
enhanced precipitation will develop later tonight and into Sunday
morning. The 00Z NAM indicates the frontal boundary stalling over
northern Monterey County overnight and then rainfall redeveloping
across the central and southern SF Bay Area on Sunday morning,
including the Santa Cruz Mountains. The latest WRF and HRRR models
show a similar scenario, although the HRRR maintains higher precip
rates across the Santa Cruz Mountains tonight, including over the
Loma Fire burn scar. A flash flood watch begins for the Loma Burn
area at 11 pm. This looks good considering what the latest HRRR
shows and the fact that area has already seen an additional 0.75"
of rain today. But based on a model consensus, highest rain rates
in that area will occur Sunday morning and early Sunday afternoon
and this appears to be the time period of greatest concern for
debris flows. Farther to the south, at the Soberanes Fire burn
area in Monterey County, expect light to moderate rain overnight
and then heavier rain on Sunday. The Soberanes Fire burn scar is
also under a Flash Flood Watch, beginning at 6 am Sunday.
Southerly winds picked up this afternoon ahead of the frontal rain
band and there were some wind gusts in the North and East Bay
Hills in excess of 40 mph for a few hours. Winds have since begun
to ease and we probably won`t see an increase in winds again until
the frontal wave approaches the coast on Sunday. Therefore, the
wind advisory will be cancelled shortly. There may be a need to
issue a new wind advisory for Sunday afternoon for the southern
portion of our area, but will wait for all 00Z model data to
arrive before making that decision.
Precipitation is expected to taper off Sunday night and we may see
some showers linger into Monday morning. Dry weather will return
to all areas by late Monday. Dry weather is then expected for the
remainder of next week, along with a warming trend, as a high
pressure ridge builds over California.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 7:30 PM PDT Saturday...The band of rain is
moving through the SFO Bay Area very quickly and there is some
clearing behind the back edge. Rain should taper off after 03Z at
SFO and OAK and there could be a brief period of VFR after 04Z.
Southerly winds are dying down and this will allow low cigs to
reform by around 08Z. Another band of showers associated with an
upper level trough will move through Sunday.
Vicinity of KSFO...Mostly MVFR cigs but there could be a brief
period of VFR between 04Z and 08Z. S-SW winds decreasing to 10
kt. Showers expected during the day Sunday as an upper level
trough moves through northern California.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs becoming IFR after midnight. Frontal
system over the North Bay will sag south this evening and is
expected to stall over MRY Bay tonight and Sunday. Thus there will
be periods of light rain beginning around midnight tonight and
continuing through most of Sunday. Strongest winds will occur this
evening with south to southwest winds gusting to 20-25 kt.
&&
.MARINE...as of 8:42 AM PDT Saturday...A potent upper low off the
pacific northwest will shift inland and bring increasing southerly
winds through the weekend. a large long period west to northwest
swell train will move through the coastal waters this weekend as
well...bringing hazardous conditions in the form of steep fresh
swell. conditions gradually improve by early next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...Coastal Flood Advisory...Entire Coast
Flash Flood Watch...Loma Fire Burn Area in Santa Clara
County
SCA...Mry Bay
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar
SCA...SF Bay until 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: BAM
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
323 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off the New England coast, will settle
along or just off the mid Atlantic coast later tonight through
Monday. The High will slide south of the area Monday night through
Wednesday...bringing warm and dry conditions to the local area
through mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest analysis depicts ~1026 mb surface high pressure, centered
over the Gulf of ME, ridging SW across the Delmarva and into NC.
Mainly clear sky, nearly calm wind and modest uptick in low level
dewpoints have allowed for areas of fog this morning. NARRE/Time
Lagged HRRR and Hi-Res models indicating fog could be locally
dense toward sunrise. Will keep an eye on Obs for possible
statements or advisories later this morning. Otherwise, have added
fog mention all zones, centered along the coastal zones.
Once the fog and any low clouds erode, another mostly sunny and
mild day expected. However, sky will average out partly cloudy SE
coast this aftn with some more flat aftn cu indicated by
guidance. Low amplitude northern stream upper trough slides across
eastern Canada today, as ridging aloft centers over the southern
plains and the western Gulf of Mexico. Mixing should be a little
deeper by aftn as low level flow shifts around to the S/SW.
Thickness tools mesh well with MOS guidance depicting maxima well
into the mid 70s, with some upper 70s possible along and west of
I-95 this aftn.
Surface High begins to slide south along the SE coast tonight.
Mainly clear sky and light winds will again favor quick drop off
of temps just after sunset, and areas of fog late centered along
and just inland of the SE coastal zones. Early morning lows
average through the 50s to near 60 along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong upper level ridge builds ENE from the western Gulf across
the deep south and into the Carolinas for the first half of the
week ahead. Meanwhile, Sfc high pressure builds along and just
offshore of the SE coast. Resultant return flow/building heights
aloft will promote continued warming trend Mon-Wed, with high
temperatures running at least 10 degrees above avg. PW values
remain AOB 0.75" throughout this period, w/dry and mostly sunny
conditions expected to prevail. Highs Monday will avg in the upper
70s to lower 80s, with 80-85 F expected Tue and mid 80s Wed/Thu.
Early morning lows Monday morning in the mid 50s to low 60s...and
in the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper high pushes offshore Thursday ahead of a deepening
upper level trough over the central US. Dry conditions expected
Thursday, resulting in another warm day with highs generally in
the mid to upper 70`s. Medium range guidance still struggling with
handling the evolution of the central US trough, with the 15/12Z
guidance now dropping the trough and a closed low into the deep
South into the weekend. Meanwhile, a weakness under the the ridge
offshore of the Southeast coast will lift northward Thursday night
and Friday. Differences in the trough will have an impact on where
the associated surface low lifts. Not buying into the GFS yet due
to drastic swings in the placement of the upper low the past few
runs. Will keep mention of chance POP`s Friday and await better
consensus in future model runs. Highs Friday generally in the
upper 60`s to low 70`s under increasing cloudiness. Cold front
expected to reach the local area in the Friday night to Saturday
time frame. Anomalous upper trough progged to take on a negative
tilt Saturday, with an area of low pressure developing along the
Southeast coast. Will keep mention of chance POP`s Saturday. Highs
in the mid to upper 60`s under a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure and VFR conditions prevail all terminals early this
morning. Winds light/variable to nearly calm everywhere through
sunrise, with High res and time lagged model data all pointing
towards areas of fog developing after 07-08z, possibly dense in
spots and centered along the coastal plain. Have noted a few obs
already this morning indicating some patchy fog at TAF issuance.
PHF has already been bouncing between VFR and LIFR/IFR VSBY, and
expect more in the way of IFR/tempo LIFR fog at PHF. Have added
tempo mention for MVFR VSBY in fog at remainder of terminals
through 13z, with fog likely clearing by 14z. Once fog clears, VFR
conds and mostly clear conditions expected Sun/Sun night. Some
more cumulus possible by midday, again mainly toward the coast.
OUTLOOK...Dry weather/VFR conditions is expected to persist through
Thursday. Only exception will be with patchy fog, which will be
possible early each morning around sunrise, with the best chances
remaining along coastal terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Big Picture...
Sfc high pressure will remain over the waters (especially the
srn waters) through Tue. Meanwhile, a sfc low pushing through
the Upper Great Lakes and across SE Canada Mon night through
Tue night will briefly squash the sfc high sewd...allowing a
tightening sfc pressure gradient to develop Tue night into
Wed morning before weak high pressure rebounds over the srn
waters. A more potent upper trough approaches the region from
the west late in the week and is expected to swing through the
area on Sat. Meanwhile, a possible low pressure approaches
well off the Southeast Coast and deepens as it moves up the
Eastern Seaboard. At this time, the position of the upper
trough should keep the Atlantic low away from the immediate
coast.
Winds/Seas/Waves...
Winds variable 5-10kt today...becoming SW late tonight through
Tue aob 15kt. A brief swly surge is possible Tue aftn into Wed
morning due to a tightening pressure gradient from a sfc low
tracking across SE Canada. Wind speeds will average 10-20kt
Ches Bay/all coastal waters...10-15kt Ern VA Rivers/Sound.
Winds to remain S-SW and diminish Wed morning through Thu
morning to roughly aob 12kt. Winds then become more sely ahead
of the approaching upper trough with speeds aob 10kt Thu
through Fri. A decent shot of cold air advection associated
with the upper trough will allow winds to become NW aob 15kt.
Seas average 2-4ft this week...possibly up to 5ft out near 20NM
north of Parramore Island during the swly surge Tue night into
Wed morning. Waves average 1-2ft on Ches Bay this week...only
building up to 3ft in the mouth of the Bay late in the week
with the cold air surge.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Equipment issue...
Astronomical tide information is not ingesting properly and has
resulted in missing data within the experimental total water level
hydrographs beyond 00Z Tuesday. Estimated return to service is no
later than Monday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
406 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A front will bring scattered rain showers to the area later this
afternoon and tonight. Conditions dry out and warm up late Monday
through Tuesday before cooler and more active weather arrives later
in the week with additional chances for rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
330 AM Update...
Light sprinkles over southern Ontario and will move toward Central
NY this morning. Low chances for rain especially north of the
thruway look good here with the majority of the area remaining
dry. Later today, and especially tonight rain chances increase as
a cold front moves into the area. Latest HRRR soundings show
enough elevated cape (a few hundred j/kg) along with lifted
indices around -2 to support a slight risk for thunder through
early evening in our "steadier" showers. Highest rain chances
through 12Z Monday will remain in NY, with chances going down
sharply toward the Wyoming Valley of PA.
With a good chunk of today dry, strong warm air advection will
push 850 mb temps into the lower teens. The result will be temps
making a run at the lower 70s in all but our coolest locations
(Catskills, higher terrain).
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM Update...
Cold front that sags into the area Sunday night will become
stationary Monday morning, then lift back northward as a warm
front Monday afternoon. This will occur with ridging aloft, and
lack of forcing. Thus shower coverage along the lifting front
will be fairly scant - slight to low chance - and temperatures for
most locations will manage lower to mid 70s.
A wave riding over the ridge Monday evening will cause a brief
slight chance of thunder towards Oneida county, otherwise things
appear dry and very warm Monday night through Tuesday.
Southwesterly flow at all levels, and a good amount of sun, will
help to realize highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This will be
pretty close to daily records.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM Update...
Forecast adjusted towards latest model blend. Moisture-
challenged front will slip through Tuesday night into Wednesday
with small chances for showers mainly Twin Tiers northward. This
will back temperatures down somewhat Wednesday-Thursday yet they
will still be a ways above normal. As mentioned below, the better
rain chances will be later in the week.
Previous discussion...
Deep SW flow aloft will prevail through the forecast. This will
allow multiple waves to move across the region resulting in a
possibly wet pattern through the weekend. Guidance typically has a
hard time grasping this pattern and when it will rain, which is
what is being shown in the forecast. ATTM the best chance for
precip through the period is Thurs night through Sat morning.
Overall low confidence forecast, thus decided to keep low pops in
the forecast.
Wed temps will be above normal, then a cold front is expected to
move through the region on Thurs bringing temps back to average by
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM update...
VFR expected for most of today, with MVFR cigs and vsbys becoming
more likely tonight in steadier rain. Showers possible NY
terminals through 0Z, but again most of the restrictions should
hold off until tonight.
LLWS possible early today with light winds at the surface and an
increasing low level jet.
OUTLOOK...
Sun Night thru Mon Night...Occasional restrictions from showers.
Tue...VFR.
Wed/Thur...Periodic restrictions from rain showers.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Heden
NEAR TERM...Heden
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/KAH
AVIATION...Heden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
410 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
A windy and mild day is expected the with passage of an energetic
shortwave trough and weak cold front. Highs today are forecast to
range from the mid 60s in the north to the low to mid 70s F south.
Overnight GOES-13 moisture channel imagery has been showing rather
significant drying in the wake of a shortwave trough that`s moving
through ID as of 0830 UTC. Although that drying has been becoming
less pronounced in the last few hours, it`s nonetheless indicative
of the strength of the wave and an attendant 120-140 kt 300-mb jet
streak following it onshore. Moreover, several lightning strikes
have occurred overnight ahead of the primary mid-level vorticity
maximum associated with wave, further reflective of its intensity.
The 00 UTC global model guidance is supportive of observational
trends in taking the axis of the 500-mb shortwave trough into
north central ND by 00 UTC. A weak cold frontal boundary will
follow the mid-level wave accordingly.
Winds are the primary forecast challenge with this seasonably-
dynamic wave passage. The KBIS WSR-88D VAD wind profile has been
showing a steady increase in southerly flow aloft since 07 UTC,
with winds near 3000 ft AGL at 30 kt already. All of the 00 UTC
global model guidance expects a core of southerly 850-mb winds of
50-60 kt transiting central ND today in a warm advection regime.
Model-forecast soundings suggest the boundary layer could extend
to a deep enough layer for mean wind speeds to exceed 30 kt with
peak winds at its top near 50 kt, especially along and south of
Interstate 94 from Bismarck to Jamestown between 15 and 20 UTC.
However, low-level vertical motion will co-exist with those peak
wind speeds in the warm advective pattern, which is expected to
inhibit full momentum transfer. It`s also hard to ignore all of
the mid- and high-level cloud cover streaming into the area out
of the west, which may act to slow surface warming and in turn
could result in a more shallow boundary layer than modeled, as
happened on Friday. Given those issues, and the quick eastward
propagation to the strongest low-level pressure/height gradient
and resultant wind speeds, we chose to hold off on the issuance
of a wind advisory at this time. That being said, relying on a
blend of the 00 UTC MAV and MET MOS guidance yielded winds very
near advisory criteria with sustained speeds of 20 to 25 mph, and
gusts around 40 mph today in south central ND. Winds in the wake
of the cold front will also increase with gusts to 30 mph in
southwest ND this afternoon.
Despite the windy conditions, the absence of lower fuel moisture
values and forecast minimum humidity values over 20 percent
precluded the need for a red flag warning.
We are carrying some 20-40 percent chances of showers in the north
today, mainly this morning. There will be a burst of moderate to
strong QG-forcing moving across the area ahead of the shortwave,
and simulated radar images from the HRRR and the 00 UTC WRF-ARW
and WRF-NMM support showers, especially north. However, forecast
soundings show a dry lower atmosphere with most saturation in the
layer above 700 mb, and the same models that have rather wet-
looking radar simulations don`t generate that much actual QPF.
This likely implies that a significant amount of virga will occur,
with only light and perhaps spotty precipitation reaching the
ground. It`s for that reason that we held PoPs a bit lower than
would otherwise be implied.
Finally, steep mid-level lapse rates of 7 C/km will likely be
spreading across the area today, but the 21 UTC SREF calibrated
thunderstorm guidance kept the chance of storms under 10 percent
for all but the James River valley, so we refrained from making
an explicit mention of those in the forecast at this time.
Expect clearing and a quiet night tonight behind the wave.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
A mainly dry and uneventful weather pattern is expected this week.
A powerful 300-mb jet streak on the order of 130 kt is forecast to
reach the central Plains Monday. Vertical motion in the left exit
region of that jet may interact with a mid-level frontal zone over
SD, and given modest baroclinicity and access to relatively steep
mid-level lapse rates to the south of the front, there`s a chance
for a frontogenetically-induced band of rain along the ND and SD
border Monday. The 00 UTC multi-model consensus keyed on that and
thus carries a chance of rain over much of southern ND Monday. As
that jet streak shifts east, a mean 500-mb trough is forecast to
become established over the north central United States by the
middle of the week, with cold advection taking 850-mb temperatures
down to about -5 C over north central ND by Wednesday night. That
will yield a cooldown with highs dropping from near 60 F Monday
to only the mid 40s to lower 50s by Wednesday. Only a few low-
grade opportunities for precipitation will occur in this scenario.
By late in the week, mid-level ridging is forecast by the 00 UTC
GFS and ECMWF to flex eastward again. The multi-model consensus
calls for highs rising back to around 60 F by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Southerly winds
will increase across the state with winds becoming westerly during
the afternoon as a cold front crosses the state. Low level wind
shear is also expected over most locations, especially during the
morning.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JNS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
407 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...
Main forecast concern today is gusty winds. Mid level trof moves
eastward across the area today supported by a 150kt kt jet stream
pushing into Wyoming, and dragging a weak pacific cold front
through the area this morning. Strong pressure falls ahead of the
front around sunrise should be enough to produce 40 to 50 mph wind
gusts over the western foothills...and models hinting at a
moderate mountain wave set up for the eastern Beartooth Foothills
and eastern Bighorn foothills as well. Winds in the mountains
above 6000 feet could reach 70 mph this morning as this mountain
wave develops...with gusts in the 40+ mph range possibly reaching
into the Red Lodge and Sheridan areas before mid day. These
mountain wave features are tough to pin down though so kept wind
speeds below the max potential but well above the normal light
wind conditions common to those areas. Further out into the plains
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph look to be common along and behind the
front as 850mb cold advection and deep subsidence work to mix and
push stronger winds aloft to the surface. HRRR is hinting at a few
gusts in the 50 mph range around noon so will keep a close eye on
wind trends through the day for potentially stronger gusts.
Precipitation today will be mainly in the morning hours as energy
associated with the upper trof and the surface cold front move
through. West facing mountain slopes continue to see the brunt of
the precipitation with the consistent Pacific flow. Snow levels
continue to stay above 8000 feet so Cooke City has seen mainly
rain the past few days and should continue to today. Across the
lower elevations a couple of bands of light shower activity will
move through but any precipitation is expected to be brief and
light in nature. Should see some significant clearing by mid day
as subsidence builds into the area for a mostly sunny afternoon in
most locations. Temperatures will be mainly in the 60s today but
the gusty winds will make it feel cooler.
Tonight and Monday...The aforementioned jet stream, which extends
way out into the northern pacific south of Alaska, will bring a
period of divergence aloft to the area tonight through Monday as
jet streak tries to break off to the north of the main jet. This
energy combined with a couple of vorticity max will produce
significant lift over northern wyoming this evening that shifts
northward into the area overnight into Monday morning. Biggest
impacts will continue to be in the Mountains with this system
given the continued downslope winds into the lower elevations.
However, the broad lift will provide a better chance for
precipitation in the lower elevations and eastern foothills. Snow
levels drop to around 6000 feet in the western mountains, and
around 7000 feet in the Bighorns late tonight. Expect 4 to 8
inches in the western mountains and 2 to 4 inches in the Bighorns
above those elevations. Cooler air aloft along with showers and
cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 50s for most locations
Monday afternoon. Chambers
.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...
Made only a few changes to the extended forecast based
on the latest model trends. The models were not in good agreement
toward the end of the period.
A broad shortwave trough will be over the region on Tuesday and
gradually move through the area through Wednesday. Downslope flow
will accompany the trough, keeping precipitation chances generally
low over the plains. There will be just a few inches of snow over
the mountains. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal.
Upper ridging will become anchored over the region Thursday
through Friday with drier and warmer conditions.
Model disagreement begins on Saturday when the GFS brings
shortwave energy through the region while the ECMWF continues
general ridging. Some moisture will move through the flow on both
models. Since the models kept the area generally dry, have kept
the forecast mainly dry for now. The GFS plunges a cold front
through the area Sat. night with QPF, and has a colder airmass
over the area than the ECMWF for Sunday. Went with slight chance
PoPs for Sat. night and had some Climo QPF over the mountains on
Sunday due to the uncertainty. Went with a model blend for
temperatures on Sunday.
Increased gap flow is possible Thu. through Friday. Arthur
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail over the area today and tonight. LLWS will
affect KBIL and KSHR this morning. There will be isolated showers
around the area, especially near KLVM that may produce MVFR
conditions. Expect widespread obscurations over the Crazy,
Beartooth and Absaroka mountains this morning, that will decrease
this afternoon. Localized obscurations will affect the NE
Bighorns. Expect gusty westerly surface winds this afternoon with
gusts of 35 to 40 kt over much of the area. Obscurations will
increase over the Beartooths and Absarokas tonight. Localized
obscurations will affect the other mountain ranges. Arthur
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064 044/057 040/057 038/056 035/058 042/064 042/061
2/W 04/W 21/B 32/W 11/B 00/B 01/B
LVM 056 038/051 034/051 032/050 032/056 040/061 039/060
2/W 17/W 23/W 32/W 11/N 01/N 01/N
HDN 066 042/058 039/059 037/057 034/060 038/066 039/062
2/W 14/W 21/B 22/W 11/U 00/B 01/B
MLS 068 041/060 039/058 036/055 035/059 040/065 042/062
3/W 03/W 31/B 12/W 11/U 00/B 11/B
4BQ 071 041/061 038/059 036/055 033/061 038/068 040/064
1/N 03/W 21/B 12/W 11/U 00/U 01/B
BHK 069 038/060 038/056 033/053 031/057 036/063 038/060
1/N 03/W 31/B 12/W 11/U 10/N 11/B
SHR 065 039/058 034/056 033/054 030/059 035/067 037/062
1/N 24/W 21/B 22/W 11/U 00/U 01/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
520 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure extending from southern Virginia to off
the Mid Atlantic Coast will drift slowly to the south today and
Monday. A weak cold front will move to near the New
York...Pennsylvania border tonight and Monday, before retreating
back to the north as a warm front later Monday and Tuesday.
Southwest flow aloft will bring much above normal daytime and
nighttime temperatures to the region right into Wednesday. A weak
cold front will push through the Commonwealth Wednesday...followed
by a slight cooling trend for Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Clear skies and a light south to southwest breeze covers the
southeastern two thirds of the state early today. Across the
northwest mountains, increasing and thickening, dual layer of
high-based strato cu and alto cu clouds were occurring.
Weak upper forcing and increasing llvl theta-e adevction beneath
the rather diffuse right-entrance region of an upper level speed
max will result in some isolated to widely scattered light showers
invof Warren County around or shortly after daybreak.
Min temps this morning will be mainly in the mid 40s. a few of the
perennial cold spots will see the mercury dip to near 40F, while
other locations across NW PA and the Laurel Highlands see temps
between 45-50F.
The nearest area of mopre organized showers along and just ahead
of the aforementioned cold front were well to the northwest of the
CWA...back in southern Michigan and the Southern Penninsula of
Ontario.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Latest hi resolution and ensemble guidance continues to indicate
best chc shra after 21z over the northwest mountains and west
central mountains. However...the latest run of the HRRR shows some
isolated showers are possible as early as late this morning across
this same region - within in the deep, warm advection pattern.
The Southeast half of the CWA apprears that it will stay dry
through at least early tonight. The front edges close to the nrn
border of PA with New York State late tonight and will stay threr
into monday before lifting back north was a warm front late
Monday/Monday night.
Southwest flow ahead of the front will push 850/925MB temps well
above seasonal norms, supporting max temps in the low to mid 70s.
Model RH time sections indicate most areas will see partly sunny
skies on average today.
Max temps this afternoon will be near 70F across the north...and
low to mid 70s elsewhere. These high temps will be between 8 and
15 eg f above normal with the greatest departures across the
western mountains.
Highs Monday will warm by a few to several deg F, ranging from the
l-m 70s across Alleghines...to the lower 80s in the southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There are two main weather themes emerging in the latest model
and ensemble data for the upcoming work week:
1) A period of mainly dry and unseasonably warm temperatures into
midweek (Mon-Wed) with max/min temp departures +10 to +20 degrees
above normal for mid-October.
850 MB temperatures are fcst to be plus 20 degrees across NW Ohio
by 00Z Tuesday.
Increased temperatures by a few deg F...especially Tuedsay and
Wednesday.
Potential to get well into the 80s across the Susq Valley and
southern valley of PA
2) Following the warm spell, a gradual trend toward a cooler and
wet weather from the second half of next week into the weekend, as
a deepening upper level trough over the Miss Valley interacts with
a stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity of PA.
Weighted fcst toward EC a little more than the GFS. Did edge
pops down some on day 7, from what the Superblend was showing.
12Z GFS faster than earlier runs, so will see what happens.
Either way, looking at cooler temperatures later in the week.
Also potential for a period of heavier rain, if system becomes negative
tilt.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR this evening but patchy valley fog again likely especially in
the Susq River Valley toward sunrise Sunday. Have put in some
low scattered cigs but given updated models could increase to BKN.
Latest SREF and HRRR shows moisture pooling in central PA valleys
so main TAF sites affected will be AOO, UNV, MDT and LNS though
possibly BFD. IFR at AOO and UNV should only last for a few hours
but in the case of MDT and LNS could be intermittent between 07Z
to 13Z. Warmer minimum Temperatures tonight with light winds will
only increase the chances for it to occur.
The next frontal system will bring a chance of showers later
Sunday into Monday (mainly to the north). This could be preceded
by a period of cig restrictions late Sat night into Sunday.
Outlook...
Sun...Patchy AM Fog. PM showers cig reductions possible north.
Mon...Showers cig reductions possible, mainly north.
Tue...Improving conditions.
Wed...Chance showers and poss reductions NW half.
Thu...Chance of showers.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Ceru
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
339 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
...Updated short term, long term and fire weather discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Fog has started to develop over parts of northern Kansas with visibilities
dropping at Great Bend and Hill City at this time. This is in an area
to the north of a weak frontal boundary that pushed into the area on
Saturday. Short term models such as the HRRR and RAP13 have been indicating
this over the past several runs. HiRes ARW and NMM have also shown this
and actually develop lower visibilities farther south into south central
Kansas. Previous shift issued a dense fog advisory for the area along
and north of a Jetmore- Kinsley- Stafford line which should be sufficient
but will have to watch areas farther south to see if any widespread
development occurs early this morning. Any fog/stratus that develops
should burn off by mid/late morning.
Models indicate the axis of a flat upper level shortwave ridge moving
from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley by this
evening with increasing west southwesterly flow aloft over the central
High Plains. A broad fetch of low level downslope flow will set up
today across the region. This will result in another very warm day
with highs mainly in the 90s across southwest Kansas. Parts of central
Kansas around Hays will be the slowest to warm as the frontal boundary
will take a while to clear that area and this will make temperature
forecasting a little more tricky. Will keep high temperatures in the
mid/upper 80s in that area but they could warm up well into the 90s
if downslope winds push through this afternoon.
Mild temperatures in the 50s will continue overnight as the warm
airmass remains in place.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Monday will continue very warm as downslope flow continues. Highs
will once again rise into the 90s. By Monday evening, a fast moving
shortwave trough passing through the northern Plains will push a
cold front south across western Kansas. This will usher in cooler
temperatures with daytime highs back into the upper 60s and 70s.
By Wednesday, another strong shortwave trough will cross the
northern and central High Plains. The GFS model seems to have
backed off on the idea of a strong closed upper low developing
somewhere east of the High Plains later in the week with both it
and the ECMWF showing a progressive system. Given that this system
will be slightly positively tilted as it moves out, the best
chances for any significant precipitation will likely be east of
south central and southwest Kansas. Will keep some very small pops
up along I-70 where a few showers could develop along and north of
the vorticity max and upper jet.
Warmer temperatures will return to the region late in the week as
upper level ridging builds back over the central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Fog and mist is expected to develop toward Sunday morning with the
greatest impacts (lowest visibilities) at Hays where LIFR cigs and
vsbys are expected. Farther southwest, Dodge City and Garden City
could possibly see MVFR visibilities for a few hours around sunrise.
Look for VFR conditions to return to the terminals by 15z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Will keep the Red Flag Warning intact this afternoon for areas
along and west of Highway 83. Southwesterly downslope flow will
bring drier and warmer air into southwest Kansas today. Winds may
not be overly strong but we should see frequent gusts to 25 mph.
While there is some uncertainty as to the magnitude of the drier
air and how far east it spreads, the models continue to show
breezy and dry conditions continuing on Monday, spreading farther
east than today. Will keep the Fire Weather Watch in place for
Monday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 91 56 92 50 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 94 52 93 47 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 94 55 95 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 96 54 95 49 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 85 53 90 50 / 10 0 0 0
P28 89 61 93 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-080-084>089.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-079.
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
332 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Patchy dense fog is developing in Barton County where KGBD dropped
to 1/4 mile at 2 AM. Remainder of KICT Country is clear but SE 5 to
15 mph winds have managed to hold most temperatures to around 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Highlights:
1) Dense Fog Advisory Issued For Russell, Barton & Lincoln Counties
Until 10 AM CDT.
2) Record Temperatures Possible This Afternoon & Mon Afternoons.
This Morning:
Light Ely winds advecting higher sfc dewpoints into the 3 Nwrn-most
counties coupled with clear skies have induced patchy dense fog to
develop at KGBD. Short-term solutions, more so the RUC & HRRR, are
so far pin-point accurate with their fog depictions for these areas
in spreading the dense fog into Russell & Lincoln Counties. As such
a Dense Fog Advisory is being issued for these 3 counties until 10
AM by which time sly 10-15 mph winds will have asserted themselves
to scour the fog.
This Afternoon:
A strong sfc low centered near the MT/ND border will move slowly E
to induce S winds to increase considerably across Central & Ern KS.
With an 850-mb trof shearing as it pushes E into Central KS to
induce flow just off the deck to become Swly & greatly increase the
setup would be ideal for temperatures to really take off. It`s very
possible that record highs may be reached in several areas, so be
looking for Record Event Reports early this evening.
Tonight-Mon:
With a strong Swly flow just off the deck, prevailing summer-like
weather will continue. A few record warmest mins may be set in SE
KS where lower-deck moisture is more plentiful. Record highs are
once again very possible in all areas as strong Swly lower-deck
flow continues to keep a well-defined thermal ridge positioned from
the Panhandles & Wrn KS thru Central & SC KS.
Mon Night-Tue Night:
The "Heat Wave" will end as a sharp, positively-tilted mid-level
shortwave sprints E. By early Tue Morning the shortwave should
extend from the Great Lakes to Ern Nebraska. This would push a cold
front SE that is still scheduled to arrive Central KS Mon Evening
then SE KS early Tue morning. Moisture is still lacking when the
front arrives so no more than the "customary" S/SW-Nly wind shift
would signal the front`s arrival/passage. With the mid-level short
wave surging E across Quebec Tue Night the front will decellerate
& likely stall from Central/Srn MO, thru SE KS, to NE OK. This
would enable moisture to pool across these areas & set the stage
for thunderstorms to develop late Tue Night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Wed & Wed Night:
With the front lurking from Srn MO to Ern OK showers & isolated
thunderstorms may continue to in SE KS Wed. The rain should end
Wed Night as fairly strong high pressure pushes E/se across the
Nrn Plains.
Thu-Sat:
The remainder of the week will be nice as a fairly strong zonal
regime prevails for most of these periods.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
The greatest threat for IFR or lower conditions late tonight into
early Sunday will be generally west/northwest of Salina-
Hutchinson, as rich low-level moisture interacts with a radiated
out airmass in the vicinity of a stalled front. Could very well
see dense fog at Russell and Great Bend from roughly 4-10AM.
Covered this threat with TEMPO LIFR conditions. Elsewhere,
expecting patchy/scattered IFR to low MVFR between roughly 4-10AM
due to diurnal cooling amidst a moist boundary layer. Stout/gusty
south winds Sunday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Record Temperatures:
Oct 16th:
Chanute: 88 In 1995
Russell: 90 In 1958
Salina: 88 In 1958
Wichita: 89 In 1995
Oct 17th:
Chanute: 87 In 1938
Russell: 90 In 1991
Salina: 89 In 1991
Wichita: 90 In 1991
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 88 66 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 87 63 90 54 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 86 66 88 56 / 0 0 0 0
ElDorado 86 67 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 88 68 90 61 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 88 55 90 49 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 90 56 92 50 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 87 63 91 52 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 86 63 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 88 69 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 86 68 88 63 / 0 0 0 10
Iola 85 68 87 63 / 0 0 0 10
Parsons-KPPF 87 69 89 64 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ032-033-
047.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...ADK
CLIMATE...EPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
415 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 414 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016
00Z raobs/latest wv imagery and RAP analysis show a shrtwv/sfc lo
pres near James Bay exiting to the ene ahead of a shrtwv rdg axis
moving thru the nrn Plains. Cold fnt attendant to the departing
James Bay lo pres and accompanying showers have clrd the ern cwa
ahead of a hi pres rdg moving into MN under the Plains shrtwv rdg/
larger scale subsidence. Although some fog lingers over mainly the
se cwa, the influx of very dry air depicted on the upstream raobs,
where 00Z pwat was as lo as 0.41 inch at INL, in the nw flow ahead
of the approaching hi pres rdg is clearing any leftover clds acrs
the e. Farther upstream, a strong shrtwv is moving newd into the nrn
Rockies out of the base of a trof along the Pac NW coast. Local
raobs show 12hr h5 hgt falls arnd 100m associated with this
disturbance.
Main fcst concerns in the short term wl focus on pops tngt
associated with aprch of vigorous shrtwv now moving into the nrn
Rockies and associated sfc lo pres/warm fnt.
Today...Passing sfc hi pres rdg/very dry airmass ahead of shrtwv rdg
axis that is fcst to reach the wrn Great Lks late today wl result in
mosunny conditions for Upr MI. With h85 temps topping out arnd 10C,
expect max temps to rise well into the 60s away fm the cooling
influence of Lk Sup in the veering n to ne llvl flow. Some mid/hi
clds ahead of upstream waa in advance of the nrn Rockies shrtwv
moving out into the nrn Plains wl arrive over the w by later in the
aftn.
Tngt...Sharpening pres gradient btwn shrtwv/lo pres moving e fm the
nrn Plains toward Upr MI and retreating hi pres rdg wl allow for
axis of vigorous waa powered by h925-85 llj ssw winds up to 40-45
kts/isentropic lift best shown on the 300-305K sfcs/area of deep lyr
qvector cnvgc to pass across the Upr Lks. This forcing will bring a
band of showers arriving fm the sw near the WI border arnd 06Z and
then overspreading the rest of the cwa except for perhaps the far e
by 12Z. Maintained a mention of some elevated TS as many of the
models show SSIs a few degrees blo 0C/mucapes aoa 500 j/kg with h85
temps as hi as 13-14C. Most recent SPC outlook has the WI border
zones on the edge of a marginal elevated svr wx risk in WI for hail
with steep h7-5 lapse rates up to 7C/km. With the waa/steady winds/a
good deal of clds, temps wl run above well above normal, especially
over the w where the thicker clds/stronger waa wl arrive earliest.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016
Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the southern plains and a broad trough
over the western U.S. 12z Mon with a shortwave moving into the upper
Great Lakes. Another shortwave ejects out of the broad trough and
moves into the upper Great Lakes Mon night. GFS and ECMWF show about
the same thing as well and will use a blend of them for this
forecast. Have likely pops in for most of Mon and Mon night for the
cwa. Bumped pops up a bit on Mon for the cold front that moves
through the area. Other than that, did not make too many changes to
the going forecast.
In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500mb broad trough over the
Rockies 12z Wed with a ridge over the sern U.S. with a ridge on the
west coast. A trough moves into the northern plains 12z Thu with
850mb temperatures dropping to -4C. This trough digs into the
central U.S. 12z Fri with 850 mb temperatures still remaining at -4C
over Lake Superior. With Lake Superior temperatures running from 9C
to 12C, this is enough lake-850 mb delta-t for lake effect pcpn. The
trough moves into the ern U.S. 12z Sat with a broad 500 mb ridge in
the western U.S. Temperatures will stay near normal to slightly
below normal for this forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016
A weak surface trough crossing the region will be replaced by a weak
ridge moving in during the day on Sunday. This will produce VFR
conditions across all three TAF sites through the forecast after some
lingering fog/lo clds exit SAW early this morning. This ridge will
quickly slide east late in the forecast allowing a warm front to
begin lifting toward Upper Michigan...increasing sky cover late.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 414 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016
Nw winds up to 20 kts today ahead of an approaching hi pres ridge
will veer to the e by this evening and then to the se late tonight
while increasing up to 25-30 kts under the tightening pres gradient
between the hi pres ridge departing to the e and an approaching lo
pres from the northern plains. Expect the strongest se winds up to a
gale force 35 kts to occur over eastern Lake Superior late tonight
into Mon morning. After coordination with Environment Canada, opted
to issue a gale warning for this area for 09Z-15Z Mon. These strong
winds will diminish thru the day on Mon as the lo pres/weaker
gradient moves over the Upper Lakes. As another lo pres moves ne
near Upper MI late Mon into Tue, a strong NW wind up to 25-30 kts
will develop in its wake before weakening to about 20 kts or less
Tue night thru Thu with the approach of a hi pres ridge/weaker
gradient.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for LSZ266-267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...KC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1044 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather conditions will persist through the
remainder of the weekend with periods of rain expected from
Saturday Night through Sunday Evening. In addition, locally
strong and gusty winds are expected. Showers may linger into
Monday with dry weather conditions returning by Tuesday. A warming
and drying trend is expected for the remainder of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As of 8:50 PM PDT Saturday...Latest frontal system
spread rain across the North Bay late this afternoon and through
the remainder of the SF Bay Area early this evening. Rain rates
were briefly heavy in some locations, but the rain band moved
through rather quickly and so rain totals were mostly light to
moderate. The most rainfall today was in northwest Sonoma County
at Venado where 1.80 inches was recorded. A few other locations in
the North Bay Mountains reported more than an inch, but for the
most part rain totals today were an inch or less in the hills and
generally less than a half inch at lower elevations.
Radar and satellite show the frontal rain band is currently
moving through southern Santa Cruz and southern Santa Clara
counties. Rain rates are mostly light to moderate, including
across the Loma Fire burn scar in the Santa Cruz Mountains.
This evening`s water vapor satellite imagery shows a subtle wave
moving through the moist flow offshore along 35N...out near 135W.
This shortwave will interact with the frontal boundary later this
evening and cause a surface wave to develop along the front
offshore. This in turn will cause the frontal boundary to stall
slightly south of its current position later this evening and
then perhaps shift back north a bit by early Sunday morning. As
the surface wave approaches early Sunday, low level convergence
will be enhanced and precipitation rates will likely increase once
again. The biggest forecast challenge is determining just where
enhanced precipitation will develop later tonight and into Sunday
morning. The 00Z NAM indicates the frontal boundary stalling over
northern Monterey County overnight and then rainfall redeveloping
across the central and southern SF Bay Area on Sunday morning,
including the Santa Cruz Mountains. The latest WRF and HRRR models
show a similar scenario, although the HRRR maintains higher precip
rates across the Santa Cruz Mountains tonight, including over the
Loma Fire burn scar. A flash flood watch begins for the Loma Burn
area at 11 pm. This looks good considering what the latest HRRR
shows and the fact that area has already seen an additional 0.75"
of rain today. But based on a model consensus, highest rain rates
in that area will occur Sunday morning and early Sunday afternoon
and this appears to be the time period of greatest concern for
debris flows. Farther to the south, at the Soberanes Fire burn
area in Monterey County, expect light to moderate rain overnight
and then heavier rain on Sunday. The Soberanes Fire burn scar is
also under a Flash Flood Watch, beginning at 6 am Sunday.
Southerly winds picked up this afternoon ahead of the frontal rain
band and there were some wind gusts in the North and East Bay
Hills in excess of 40 mph for a few hours. Winds have since begun
to ease and we probably won`t see an increase in winds again until
the frontal wave approaches the coast on Sunday. Therefore, the
wind advisory will be cancelled shortly. There may be a need to
issue a new wind advisory for Sunday afternoon for the southern
portion of our area, but will wait for all 00Z model data to
arrive before making that decision.
Precipitation is expected to taper off Sunday night and we may see
some showers linger into Monday morning. Dry weather will return
to all areas by late Monday. Dry weather is then expected for the
remainder of next week, along with a warming trend, as a high
pressure ridge builds over California.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 7:30 PM PDT Saturday...The band of rain is
moving through the SFO Bay Area very quickly and there is some
clearing behind the back edge. Rain should taper off after 03Z at
SFO and OAK and there could be a brief period of VFR after 04Z.
Southerly winds are dying down and this will allow low cigs to
reform by around 08Z. Another band of showers associated with an
upper level trough will move through Sunday.
Vicinity of KSFO...Mostly MVFR cigs but there could be a brief
period of VFR between 04Z and 08Z. S-SW winds decreasing to 10
kt. Showers expected during the day Sunday as an upper level
trough moves through northern California.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs becoming IFR after midnight. Frontal
system over the North Bay will sag south this evening and is
expected to stall over MRY Bay tonight and Sunday. Thus there will
be periods of light rain beginning around midnight tonight and
continuing through most of Sunday. Strongest winds will occur this
evening with south to southwest winds gusting to 20-25 kt.
&&
.MARINE...as of 8:42 AM PDT Saturday...A frontal system is
expected to remain over the central waters through Sunday before
getting pushed east by an upper level trough. Light to moderate
southerly winds will decrease and become southwest Sunday night.
Moderate swells will continue through Monday before subsiding.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...Coastal Flood Advisory...Entire Coast
Flash Flood Watch...Loma Fire Burn Area in Santa Clara
County
SCA...Mry Bay
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar
SCA...SF Bay until 3 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION: W Pi
MARINE: W Pi
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
321 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
The primary forecast concerns are in regards to fog and low clouds,
which may have some impact on high temperatures today.
08z observations and IR fog satellite product show fairly
widespread dense fog in western Iowa and parts of eastern
Nebraska. This should hold most areas into mid morning and may
expand west as suggested by some recent high resolution short
range models (RAP, HRRR, HRRRX). With time, boundary layer and
surface winds should increase from the southeast. HRRR run from
06Z even kept some fog into northeast Nebraska through early
afternoon, so have kept highs coolest there (lower to mid 70s).
Light winds again tonight may lead to fog formation after
midnight. Did not mention dense fog for tonight at this time due
to low confidence on exactly how low visibilities will go. Look
for lows mainly in the 50s, with some lower 60s in southeast
Nebraska and the southern parts of southwest Iowa.
If fog dissipates as expected Monday, it should be a mild day with
southwest low level winds and modest mixing. Guidance suggests high
temperatures mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with some upper 80s
possible near the Kansas border. That scenario seemed reasonable and
was close to the previous forecast.
Cooler air will start to slip in behind a front Monday night,
dropping highs into the upper 60s north and lower 70s south for
Tuesday. Normal highs are in the lower and mid 60s, so Tuesday
would still be considered mild.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
The longer range models are in pretty good agreement with the large
scale pattern in most of this period. A trough will be out in the
Pacific along 160 degrees west longitude Tuesday, which then
moves east to around 140 west by Friday. Also through this period,
a trough will move across the plains (Tuesday through Thursday)
while a ridge develops over the Rockies. The Canadian model
pattern at 500 mb was an outlier, compared to the GFS and ECMWF,
so it was not given any weight. As the ridge expands slightly east
and broadens, our temperatures should moderate slightly toward
next weekend.
Kept some chance of showers going for at least parts of the area
from Wednesday into Thursday, but at this time any amounts are
expected to be very light.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
LIFR conditions developing at KOMA, which will linger until about
16z. MVFR at KLNK, and may temporarily hit LIFR 12-14z, then
improving by 16z. VFR at KOFK, and believe fog may stay southeast
of that location.
&&
.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ034-044-
045-051>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...DeWald
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
335 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the Carolinas through Wednesday,
leading to dry weather and warm temperatures. An approaching cold
front will bring increasing rain chances late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...
A smattering of MVFR/IFR visibilities out there this morning with
the potential for more to develop as the morning goes on, especially
across the northern and northeastern areas. Otherwise low
temperatures so far have come down almost to the dewpoints with both
in the low to mid 50s at this time. As high pressure builds over the
area expect any fog to burn off after sunrise and then light and
variable winds with little cloud cover is expected for the rest of
the day. No precipitation is expected. High temperatures this
afternoon in the mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures later tonight in
the mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...
Surface high pressure begins to slip eastward on Monday and thus a
return flow scenario that will begin to raise temperatures in the
area back into the low 80s for highs which is about five degrees
above normal at KFAY but 8 and 10 degrees above normal for KRDU and
KGSO respectively. Another day of lots of sunshine is expected with
no precipitation. Lows Monday night in the upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...
Tue/Wed: Narrow Bermuda high pressure at the surface extending
westward through the Carolinas will be capped by a mid level
anticyclone, resulting in deep (850-300 mb) warming and subsidence.
Apart from patchy early-morning fog, skies should be generally
sunny, with well above normal temps -- highs in the lower 80s and
lows around 60 -- as thicknesses are expected to be around 25-30 m
above climo.
Thu-Sat: The mid level ridge gives way to a narrow amplifying trough
over the eastern third of the CONUS late in the week. Previous model
runs had brought about some concern regarding the fate of broad weak
low pressure spanning eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and northeastward
toward Bermuda, with some models developing what appears to be a
tropical low east of the Bahamas and taking it northward near
eastern NC within the strengthening SSW steering flow east of the
encroaching trough. But the latest model runs keep such a low far
enough offshore to be of little to no consequence for flood-ravaged
eastern NC. We should still see increasing chances for showers
however starting Thu night, and likely peaking Fri as the cold front
sweeps eastward through the area, followed by dwindling pops Fri
night. It doesn`t appear that there will be much opportunity for
deep moisture return, which would hold down precip amounts for the
event. Expect warm temps again Thu, with highs near 80 with
increased cloud cover. High marginal of error for temps Fri with the
front moving through, and for now will have highs around 70 in the
Triad ranging to the mid-upper 70s in the SE, all with good chances
for showers. Uncertainty grows heading into Fri night/Sat, as the
operational GFS and ECMWF swing an amplified but open mid level
trough to our east Fri night along with the surface front, bringing
in cooler temps starting Fri night, although some model suites
including earlier GEFS ensemble means were much slower with a closed
low in the trough base. Will go with the more progressive solution
of more recent runs, with lows Fri night in the low-mid 50s. Expect
a return of some sunshine Sat with slightly below normal highs in
the 60s to around 70. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...
24 Hour TAF period: A few MVFR ceilings out there across the north
this morning and some potential for some radiation fog as KRWI has
already come in with 1/2 mile and HRRR model runs show that some fog
could continue to develop this morning, mainly across northeastern
areas. After sunrise, fog should clear and light and variable winds
and mostly clear skies should prevail.
Long term: Mostly VFR conditions expected for much of the work week
before some unsettled weather moves in towards the end of the week
into next weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 250 AM Sunday...
Major river flooding continues on the lower reaches of the Neuse and
Tar rivers, although levels are expected to fall to moderate
flooding today. Minor flooding is expected for several days on the
Roanoke River at Roanoke Rapids and Scotland Neck, due to upstream
lake releases. For details, see www.weather.gov/ahps2
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...Ellis
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Ellis
HYDROLOGY...RAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
946 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A front will bring scattered rain showers to the area later this
afternoon and tonight. Conditions dry out and warm up late Monday
through Tuesday before cooler and more active weather arrives later
in the week with additional chances for rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 am update...
Quick update this morning to account for a weak slow moving line
of light showers/sprinkles moving ewd into the Catskills. This
line of rain is producing around 0.02 inch as it passes through.
No other changes made to the forecast.
655 AM Update...
Short term models seem to have a good handle on the showers over
CNY and I increased chances for rain here a bit. Coverage area is
the same (mainly north of the thruway) but % chances now higher. I
also updated cloud forecast for more clouds, otherwise everything
else is in good shape.
330 AM Update... Light sprinkles over southern
Ontario and will move toward Central NY this morning. Low chances
for rain especially north of the thruway look good here with the
majority of the area remaining dry. Later today, and especially
tonight rain chances increase as a cold front moves into the area.
Latest HRRR soundings show enough elevated cape (a few hundred
j/kg) along with lifted indices around -2 to support a slight risk
for thunder through early evening in our "steadier" showers.
Highest rain chances through 12Z Monday will remain in NY, with
chances going down sharply toward the Wyoming Valley of PA.
With a good chunk of today dry, strong warm air advection will
push 850 mb temps into the lower teens. The result will be temps
making a run at the lower 70s in all but our coolest locations
(Catskills, higher terrain).
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
4 AM Update...
Cold front that sags into the area Sunday night will become
stationary Monday morning, then lift back northward as a warm
front Monday afternoon. This will occur with ridging aloft, and
lack of forcing. Thus shower coverage along the lifting front
will be fairly scant - slight to low chance - and temperatures for
most locations will manage lower to mid 70s.
A wave riding over the ridge Monday evening will cause a brief
slight chance of thunder towards Oneida county, otherwise things
appear dry and very warm Monday night through Tuesday.
Southwesterly flow at all levels, and a good amount of sun, will
help to realize highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This will be
pretty close to daily records.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM Update...
Forecast adjusted towards latest model blend. Moisture-
challenged front will slip through Tuesday night into Wednesday
with small chances for showers mainly Twin Tiers northward. This
will back temperatures down somewhat Wednesday-Thursday yet they
will still be a ways above normal. As mentioned below, the better
rain chances will be later in the week.
Previous discussion...
Deep SW flow aloft will prevail through the forecast. This will
allow multiple waves to move across the region resulting in a
possibly wet pattern through the weekend. Guidance typically has a
hard time grasping this pattern and when it will rain, which is
what is being shown in the forecast. ATTM the best chance for
precip through the period is Thurs night through Sat morning.
Overall low confidence forecast, thus decided to keep low pops in
the forecast.
Wed temps will be above normal, then a cold front is expected to
move through the region on Thurs bringing temps back to average by
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
655 AM update...
VFR expected for most of today with gradually lowering cigs but
still mainly in the 5,000 to 10,000 foot range. Showers possible
at KRME and KSYR but restrictions not likely. Thunder possible
late today and tonight NY terminals but not enough to include in
the TAFS at the moment.
Tonight cigs lower to MVFR NY terminals along with MVFR vsbys in
showers. Some IFR possible and most likely at KBGM.
OUTLOOK...
Mon...Occasional restrictions from showers.
Tue...VFR.
Wed/Thur...Periodic restrictions from rain showers.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Heden
NEAR TERM...BJT/Heden
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...Heden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1058 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Wind advisory issued for south central and James Valley.
Winds are the main concern today with latest models indicating
potential widespread area of wind advisory criteria speeds
(sustained at 30 mph and/or gusts to 40 mph). Main area of concern
is south central ND late this morning into early afternoon...then
shifting eastward to the James River Valley early to mid afternoon.
Thus will issue a 3-4 hour duration wind advisory for those areas -
mainly McLean County in the northwest...southward to the South
Dakota border including Grant/Sioux...then east to the
Mandan/Bismarck areas to the Harvey/Carrington/Jamestown/Oakes
areas.
The other issue is that have put a mention of isolated thunderstorms
within the areas of rain showers.
UPDATE
Issued at 900 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Main concern this morning and today will be potential advisory to
near warning criteria wind gusts as noted in previous
discussions. HRRR and RAP Bufkit analysis continue to indicate
40-45kts within the mixed layer beginning already at 15Z over
south central ND and into the James River Valley. I ramped up the
winds and mentioned in the HWO, but will hold off on wind
headlines for now and see what observations come in over the next
couple of hours as there is some uncertainty how high the mixed
layer will actually be. Higher mixed layer will obviously support
stronger winds, though with cloud cover models may be showing
heights too high.
We continue to be void of any precipitation reports this morning
despite radar returns lifting north across west and central ND.
Cloud bases at or above 10-12K Feet AGL with dry air below
preventing moisture from reaching the surface. Better chances for
light rain will materialize over the next few hours north of I-94
as thermal upglide and upper level divergence increases across the
region. Inherited POPs looking good so only made a few tweaks. Did
convert weather to coverage wording (Isolated-Scattered).
UPDATE Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Composite radar reflectivity images show increasing returns from
eastern MT through southwest ND and northern SD as of 1130 UTC, as
a likely response to increasing warm air advection. Thus far no
rain has been reported with these returns, so even through there`s
more on radar from Bowman to Mobridge than expected, it seems that
the going forecast that calls for mainly dry conditions south of
Interstate 94 is not yet in need of any major revision. Thus,
little in the way of change was needed with this update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
A windy and mild day is expected the with passage of an energetic
shortwave trough and weak cold front. Highs today are forecast to
range from the mid 60s in the north to the low to mid 70s F south.
Overnight GOES-13 moisture channel imagery has been showing rather
significant drying in the wake of a shortwave trough that`s moving
through ID as of 0830 UTC. Although that drying has been becoming
less pronounced in the last few hours, it`s nonetheless indicative
of the strength of the wave and an attendant 120-140 kt 300-mb jet
streak following it onshore. Moreover, several lightning strikes
have occurred overnight ahead of the primary mid-level vorticity
maximum associated with wave, further reflective of its intensity.
The 00 UTC global model guidance is supportive of observational
trends in taking the axis of the 500-mb shortwave trough into
north central ND by 00 UTC. A weak cold frontal boundary will
follow the mid-level wave accordingly.
Winds are the primary forecast challenge with this seasonably-
dynamic wave passage. The KBIS WSR-88D VAD wind profile has been
showing a steady increase in southerly flow aloft since 07 UTC,
with winds near 3000 ft AGL at 30 kt already. All of the 00 UTC
global model guidance expects a core of southerly 850-mb winds of
50-60 kt transiting central ND today in a warm advection regime.
Model-forecast soundings suggest the boundary layer could extend
to a deep enough layer for mean wind speeds to exceed 30 kt with
peak winds at its top near 50 kt, especially along and south of
Interstate 94 from Bismarck to Jamestown between 15 and 20 UTC.
However, low-level vertical motion will co-exist with those peak
wind speeds in the warm advective pattern, which is expected to
inhibit full momentum transfer. It`s also hard to ignore all of
the mid- and high-level cloud cover streaming into the area out
of the west, which may act to slow surface warming and in turn
could result in a more shallow boundary layer than modeled, as
happened on Friday. Given those issues, and the quick eastward
propagation to the strongest low-level pressure/height gradient
and resultant wind speeds, we chose to hold off on the issuance
of a wind advisory at this time. That being said, relying on a
blend of the 00 UTC MAV and MET MOS guidance yielded winds very
near advisory criteria with sustained speeds of 20 to 25 mph, and
gusts around 40 mph today in south central ND. Winds in the wake
of the cold front will also increase with gusts to 30 mph in
southwest ND this afternoon.
Despite the windy conditions, the absence of lower fuel moisture
values and forecast minimum humidity values over 20 percent
precluded the need for a red flag warning.
We are carrying some 20-40 percent chances of showers in the north
today, mainly this morning. There will be a burst of moderate to
strong QG-forcing moving across the area ahead of the shortwave,
and simulated radar images from the HRRR and the 00 UTC WRF-ARW
and WRF-NMM support showers, especially north. However, forecast
soundings show a dry lower atmosphere with most saturation in the
layer above 700 mb, and the same models that have rather wet-
looking radar simulations don`t generate that much actual QPF.
This likely implies that a significant amount of virga will occur,
with only light and perhaps spotty precipitation reaching the
ground. It`s for that reason that we held PoPs a bit lower than
would otherwise be implied.
Finally, steep mid-level lapse rates of 7 C/km will likely be
spreading across the area today, but the 21 UTC SREF calibrated
thunderstorm guidance kept the chance of storms under 10 percent
for all but the James River valley, so we refrained from making
an explicit mention of those in the forecast at this time.
Expect clearing and a quiet night tonight behind the wave.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
A mainly dry and uneventful weather pattern is expected this week.
A powerful 300-mb jet streak on the order of 130 kt is forecast to
reach the central Plains Monday. Vertical motion in the left exit
region of that jet may interact with a mid-level frontal zone over
SD, and given modest baroclinicity and access to relatively steep
mid-level lapse rates to the south of the front, there`s a chance
for a frontogenetically-induced band of rain along the ND and SD
border Monday. The 00 UTC multi-model consensus keyed on that and
thus carries a chance of rain over much of southern ND Monday. As
that jet streak shifts east, a mean 500-mb trough is forecast to
become established over the north central United States by the
middle of the week, with cold advection taking 850-mb temperatures
down to about -5 C over north central ND by Wednesday night. That
will yield a cooldown with highs dropping from near 60 F Monday
to only the mid 40s to lower 50s by Wednesday. Only a few low-
grade opportunities for precipitation will occur in this scenario.
By late in the week, mid-level ridging is forecast by the 00 UTC
GFS and ECMWF to flex eastward again. The multi-model consensus
calls for highs rising back to around 60 F by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Southerly winds
will increase across the state with winds becoming westerly during
the afternoon as a cold front crosses the state. Low-level wind
shear is also expected over most locations this morning.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ this afternoon for
NDZ019>022-034-035-042-045-046.
Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ023-036-047-
050.
Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ025-037-048-
051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...JNS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1202 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds and breezy south winds today ahead of a cold
front over the northern Great Lakes. The front will spread showers
across the North Country for the afternoon and early evening.
While briefly dry conditions return on Monday, a warm front later
Monday night and early on Tuesday will support another period of
rain. Temperatures will continue to range above normal through the
next five days with the warmest temperatures on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 719 AM EDT Sunday...Per regional radar mosaic and trend in
HRRR guidance, increased PoPs into the Likely range across the St.
Lawrence Valley a bit earlier than prior indications. Any rain
showers that do occur this morning should mainly be confined to
that general area. Preponderance of convection-permitting model
output continues to show bulk of rainfall occurring later this
afternoon and into the evening. Highs still appear on track,
though the timing of the highs will be somewhat staggered such
that once rain begins, the climb in temperatures should stop.
Previous discussion...
Prevailing south/southwesterly gradient persists across the North
Country early this morning out ahead of a cold front positioned
across the northern Great Lakes region. Despite that southerly
gradient, a large variation in temperatures early this morning
ranging from the 30s in eastern Vermont to 61 degrees at PTD.
Moderate south breeze of 10-15 mph should continue through at
least the first part of the day, along with a west-east
increase/thickening of cloud cover and an uptick in dewpoints. The
front itself, however, is not that impressive and will be slow to
spread its precipitation eastward across our area today as it
moves into deep south-southwest flow aloft. In fact, most CAM
reflectivity guidance doesn`t show any rain into our western NY
counties until around noon, and feel even that may be too soon.
So, feel that rain would hold off until the early-mid afternoon
across the St. Lawrence County and `Dacks area, and not until mid
to late this afternoon in the northern Champlain Valley, with
Likely PoPs indicated. Highs generally in the 60s due to the cloud
covered skies.
For tonight: Rain should be primarily focused across our area
through the late afternoon and into the mid-evening hours as the
front lurches its way east-southeast. BUFKIT soundings reveal a
limited amount of elevated instability/steeper mid-level lapse
rates that advance along the front. While that may be the case,
given the veered low-level winds limiting deeper
convergence/lift, I`m not convinced the lift with the front will
be strong enough to realize that limited instability aloft. For
that reason, I`ve only indicated showers and held off on a mention
of slight chance/isolated thunder at this point. Front will sag
south/southeastward after 04z with winds shifting to north-
northwest and a decrease in PoPs. Overall, QPF through 12z Monday
tops out around two-tenths of an inch. Cold thermal advection
should also take place but indications are that it may be a
shallow cooling (850 mb temps fall a degree or two with a more
stark thermal contrast below that pressure level). It will also
likely be staying at least mostly cloudy through the rest of the
overnight. For that reason, I leaned a little on the warm side of
guidance with lows generally in the lower to mid 50s, with upper
40s confined to the northern border counties and at elevation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 406 AM EDT Sunday...A mainly persistence forecast will be
offered for the Monday/Tuesday time frame with models remaining
consistent with prior solutions. On Monday the weak frontal zone
will sink south of the area with mainly dry weather expected as
high pressure builds south and west into the reigon under light
north/northeasterly flow. Temperatures should remain mild with
highs ranging through the 60s to locally around 70. As low
pressure forms and lifts toward the northern Great Lakes region,
the front will begin to return north and east as a warm front by
late in the day and into Monday night. This will allow clouds to
thicken from the south and west over time with an increasing
threat of showers, especially across the northern half of the
forecast area by the evening and overnight hours. Fairly robust
isentropic lift in the mid-levels combined with a 925-850 mb
southwesterly jet of around 40 kts will foster at least an outside
shot of a few thunderstorms overnight as well, most prevalent
across the northwestern half of the area. QPF output continues to
show highest totals across the far northern tier of counties in
association with best forcing where amounts to near a quarter inch
will be possible. Further south totals should be lighter, though
any isolated storms may drop locally higher totals. With the
background flow trending bodily south/southwesterly, low
temperatures will in general hold on the mild side in southern and
western counties (50s to around 60) with slightly cooler readings
(upper 40s/lower 50s) occurring far north and east in the evening
hours ahead of the warm front before readings there also rise
overnight.
By Tuesday model output continues to support the idea of the warm
front lifting north of the international border by late
morning/early afternoon, with system`s cold front approaching from
the north and west late. If skies can trend partly cloudy, which
seems reasonable at this point, temperatures will respond
significantly with 925 mb temps averaging around +20C. For now have
advertised highs ranging through the 70s in most spots, though it`s
not out of the question that a few spots may touch the 80F mark here
and there. It will also trend quite breezy from the Champlain Valley
west with south/southwesterly gusts into the 20 to 35 mph range
quite plausible given background wind fields and potential for
decent boundary layer mixing.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 406 AM EDT Sunday...By Tuesday night the deepening Great
Lakes low will lift into central Canada dragging its associated
cold front through the area with a renewed threat for scattered
showers. QPF should generally be light and less than a quarter
inch as low temperatures hold mild in the 50s with abundant
clouds.
After a mainly dry and seasonably mild day on Wednesday the overall
forecast picture trends more unclear, and generally unsettled. The
larger theme continues to be the gradual development of a seasonably
deep, and more autumnlike upper trough across the Great Lakes into
the Ohio Valley which will tend to move into the mid-Atlantic and
northeast by next weekend. Problematic in the evolution of sensible
weather highlights will be the orientation of low pressure,
associated frontal boundaries and potential interaction with some
sort of sub-tropical/hybrid low riding up from southerly latitudes
in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. All an all I imagine we`ll trend
more persistently cloudy over time with a better threat of steadier
showers. Uncertainty remains however as to what exact day, or days
will be the most unsettled. What`s somewhat more certain is for
temperatures to trend more seasonable as daytime highs hold mainly
in the 50s to around 60 with overnight lows mainly in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12Z Monday...Conditions generally VFR until around 15z,
which is the earliest time frame for MVFR showers at MSS.
Conditions will then continue to deteriorate to MVFR through the
afternoon and into the evening as showers overspread the rest of
the TAFs. Ceilings should begin to drop as the rain approaches and
intially south winds 10-14 kts begins to wane and become less
gusty. Wind shift to northwest/north-northwest under 10 knots as
the front slips southward through 04-12z, along with a drop in
ceilings to MVFR and even localized IFR.
Outlook 12Z Monday through Thursday...
12z Monday - 00z Tuesday: becoming VFR under weak high pressure.
00z Tuesday - 12z Tuesday: VFR with intervals MVFR showers
associated with a warm front.
12z Tuesday - 00z Wednesday: MVFR improves to VFR. Gusty
south/southwest winds possible at MSS and BTV.
00z Wednesday - 12z Wednesday: VFR deteriorates to MVFR with
showers along a cold front.
12z Wednesday - 00z Thursday: VFR under weak high pressure.
00z Thursday onward: Trending MVFR with rain.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 1200 PM EDT Sunday...Lake Wind Advisory continues. Winds
have been sustained 20-30 knots, with Colchester Reef gusting into
the mid to upper 30s. Low level Jet of 35 to 40 knots channeling
up the Lake Champlain Valley will continue through much of the
afternoon, then slowly ease to 15-25 knots early evening as the
approaching front nears. Forecast includes winds of 20 to 30 knots
today, with gusts of 35 to 40 knots through early afternoon. Winds
will drop below Lake Wind Advisory criteria late this evening,
decreasing to the 10 to 20 knot range. Waves 3 to 5 feet over the
broad lake and in bays or inlets exposed to the south, gradually
abating to around 2 feet as winds subside. The main message is
that those with small craft can still expect hazardous wind and
wave conditions the rest of today.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Loconto
MARINE...Hanson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
637 AM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Mon...
Main forecast concern today is gusty winds. Mid level trof moves
eastward across the area today supported by a 150kt kt jet stream
pushing into Wyoming, and dragging a weak pacific cold front
through the area this morning. Strong pressure falls ahead of the
front around sunrise should be enough to produce 40 to 50 mph wind
gusts over the western foothills...and models hinting at a
moderate mountain wave set up for the eastern Beartooth Foothills
and eastern Bighorn foothills as well. Winds in the mountains
above 6000 feet could reach 70 mph this morning as this mountain
wave develops...with gusts in the 40+ mph range possibly reaching
into the Red Lodge and Sheridan areas before mid day. These
mountain wave features are tough to pin down though so kept wind
speeds below the max potential but well above the normal light
wind conditions common to those areas. Further out into the plains
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph look to be common along and behind the
front as 850mb cold advection and deep subsidence work to mix and
push stronger winds aloft to the surface. HRRR is hinting at a few
gusts in the 50 mph range around noon so will keep a close eye on
wind trends through the day for potentially stronger gusts.
Precipitation today will be mainly in the morning hours as energy
associated with the upper trof and the surface cold front move
through. West facing mountain slopes continue to see the brunt of
the precipitation with the consistent Pacific flow. Snow levels
continue to stay above 8000 feet so Cooke City has seen mainly
rain the past few days and should continue to today. Across the
lower elevations a couple of bands of light shower activity will
move through but any precipitation is expected to be brief and
light in nature. Should see some significant clearing by mid day
as subsidence builds into the area for a mostly sunny afternoon in
most locations. Temperatures will be mainly in the 60s today but
the gusty winds will make it feel cooler.
Tonight and Monday...The aforementioned jet stream, which extends
way out into the northern pacific south of Alaska, will bring a
period of divergence aloft to the area tonight through Monday as
jet streak tries to break off to the north of the main jet. This
energy combined with a couple of vorticity max will produce
significant lift over northern wyoming this evening that shifts
northward into the area overnight into Monday morning. Biggest
impacts will continue to be in the Mountains with this system
given the continued downslope winds into the lower elevations.
However, the broad lift will provide a better chance for
precipitation in the lower elevations and eastern foothills. Snow
levels drop to around 6000 feet in the western mountains, and
around 7000 feet in the Bighorns late tonight. Expect 4 to 8
inches in the western mountains and 2 to 4 inches in the Bighorns
above those elevations. Cooler air aloft along with showers and
cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 50s for most locations
Monday afternoon. Chambers
.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...
Made only a few changes to the extended forecast based
on the latest model trends. The models were not in good agreement
toward the end of the period.
A broad shortwave trough will be over the region on Tuesday and
gradually move through the area through Wednesday. Downslope flow
will accompany the trough, keeping precipitation chances generally
low over the plains. There will be just a few inches of snow over
the mountains. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal.
Upper ridging will become anchored over the region Thursday
through Friday with drier and warmer conditions.
Model disagreement begins on Saturday when the GFS brings
shortwave energy through the region while the ECMWF continues
general ridging. Some moisture will move through the flow on both
models. Since the models kept the area generally dry, have kept
the forecast mainly dry for now. The GFS plunges a cold front
through the area Sat. night with QPF, and has a colder airmass
over the area than the ECMWF for Sunday. Went with slight chance
PoPs for Sat. night and had some Climo QPF over the mountains on
Sunday due to the uncertainty. Went with a model blend for
temperatures on Sunday.
Increased gap flow is possible Thu. through Friday. Arthur
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail over the area today and tonight. LLWS will
affect KBIL and KSHR this morning. There will be isolated showers
around the area, especially near KLVM that may produce MVFR
conditions. Expect widespread obscurations over the Crazy,
Beartooth and Absaroka mountains this morning, that will decrease
this afternoon. Localized obscurations will affect the NE
Bighorns. Expect gusty westerly surface winds this afternoon with
gusts of 35 to 40 kt over much of the area. Obscurations will
increase over the Beartooths and Absarokas tonight. Localized
obscurations will affect the other mountain ranges. Arthur
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064 044/057 040/057 038/056 035/058 042/064 042/061
3/W 04/W 21/B 32/W 11/B 00/B 01/B
LVM 056 038/051 034/051 032/050 032/056 040/061 039/060
3/W 17/W 23/W 32/W 11/N 01/N 01/N
HDN 066 042/058 039/059 037/057 034/060 038/066 039/062
3/W 14/W 21/B 22/W 11/U 00/B 01/B
MLS 068 041/060 039/058 036/055 035/059 040/065 042/062
4/W 03/W 31/B 12/W 11/U 00/B 11/B
4BQ 071 041/061 038/059 036/055 033/061 038/068 040/064
2/W 03/W 21/B 12/W 11/U 00/U 01/B
BHK 069 038/060 038/056 033/053 031/057 036/063 038/060
2/W 03/W 31/B 12/W 11/U 10/N 11/B
SHR 065 039/058 034/056 033/054 030/059 035/067 037/062
2/W 24/W 21/B 22/W 11/U 00/U 01/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1051 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure extending from southern Virginia to off
the Mid Atlantic Coast will drift slowly to the south today and
Monday. A weak cold front will move to near the New
York...Pennsylvania border tonight and Monday, before retreating
back to the north as a warm front later Monday and Tuesday.
Southwest flow aloft will bring much above normal daytime and
nighttime temperatures to the region right into Wednesday. A weak
cold front will push through the Commonwealth Wednesday...followed
by a slight cooling trend for Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds increasing ahead of approaching frontal system. Southwest
flow ahead of the front will push 850/925MB temps well above
seasonal norms, supporting max temps in the low to mid 70s. Model
RH time sections indicate most areas will see partly sunny skies
on average today. HRRR showing showers will develop across NW CWA
this afternoon and evening. The Southeast half of the CWA appearsthat
it will stay dry through at least early tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Frontal system will lift north as a warm front on Monday. As it
does that there is enough instability to bring a chance of showers
or thunderstorms to northern cwa. Highs Monday will warm by a few
to several deg F, ranging from the l-m 70s across Alleghenies...to
the lower 80s in the southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There are two main weather themes emerging in the latest model
and ensemble data for the upcoming work week:
1) A period of mainly dry and unseasonably warm temperatures into
midweek (Mon-Wed) with max/min temp departures +10 to +20 degrees
above normal for mid-October.
850 MB temperatures are fcst to be plus 20 degrees across NW Ohio
by 00Z Tuesday.
Increased temperatures by a few deg F...especially Tuesday and
Wednesday.
Potential to get well into the 80s across the Susq Valley and
southern valley of PA
2) Following the warm spell, a gradual trend toward a cooler and
wet weather from the second half of next week into the weekend, as
a deepening upper level trough over the Miss Valley interacts with
a stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity of PA.
Weighted fcst toward EC a little more than the GFS. Did edge
pops down some on day 7, from what the Superblend was showing.
12Z GFS faster than earlier runs, so will see what happens.
Either way, looking at cooler temperatures later in the week.
Also potential for a period of heavier rain, if system becomes negative
tilt.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure off the Mid Atlantic Coast will drift
slowly south to off the Carolina coast on Monday, as a weak cold
front stalls north of the PA/NY border. The result for central PA
will be scattered valley fog/low clouds early today, especially
over the lower Susq Valley including terminals of KMDT/KLNS. By
mid morning, VFR conditions will prevail areawide with winds
picking up from the SW (and becoming gusty over the west).
The weak cold front get close enough to bring likely cig
restrictions and scattered showers to the NW mountains (including
KBFD) late day and esp tonight. Central areas should remain VFR,
but a low cloud deck will again likely develop in the lower Susq
early Mon morning.
Outlook...
Sun...Patchy AM Fog. PM showers cig reductions possible north.
Mon...Showers cig reductions possible, mainly north.
Tue...Improving conditions.
Wed...Chance showers and poss reductions NW half.
Thu...Chance of showers.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Ross
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...RXR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
556 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
...updated aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Fog has started to develop over parts of northern Kansas with visibilities
dropping at Great Bend and Hill City at this time. This is in an area
to the north of a weak frontal boundary that pushed into the area on
Saturday. Short term models such as the HRRR and RAP13 have been indicating
this over the past several runs. HiRes ARW and NMM have also shown this
and actually develop lower visibilities farther south into south central
Kansas. Previous shift issued a dense fog advisory for the area along
and north of a Jetmore- Kinsley- Stafford line which should be sufficient
but will have to watch areas farther south to see if any widespread
development occurs early this morning. Any fog/stratus that develops
should burn off by mid/late morning.
Models indicate the axis of a flat upper level shortwave ridge moving
from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley by this
evening with increasing west southwesterly flow aloft over the central
High Plains. A broad fetch of low level downslope flow will set up
today across the region. This will result in another very warm day
with highs mainly in the 90s across southwest Kansas. Parts of central
Kansas around Hays will be the slowest to warm as the frontal boundary
will take a while to clear that area and this will make temperature
forecasting a little more tricky. Will keep high temperatures in the
mid/upper 80s in that area but they could warm up well into the 90s
if downslope winds push through this afternoon.
Mild temperatures in the 50s will continue overnight as the warm
airmass remains in place.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Monday will continue very warm as downslope flow continues. Highs
will once again rise into the 90s. By Monday evening, a fast moving
shortwave trough passing through the northern Plains will push a
cold front south across western Kansas. This will usher in cooler
temperatures with daytime highs back into the upper 60s and 70s.
By Wednesday, another strong shortwave trough will cross the
northern and central High Plains. The GFS model seems to have
backed off on the idea of a strong closed upper low developing
somewhere east of the High Plains later in the week with both it
and the ECMWF showing a progressive system. Given that this system
will be slightly positively tilted as it moves out, the best
chances for any significant precipitation will likely be east of
south central and southwest Kansas. Will keep some very small pops
up along I-70 where a few showers could develop along and north of
the vorticity max and upper jet.
Warmer temperatures will return to the region late in the week as
upper level ridging builds back over the central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
LIFR conditions at KHYS will improve by late morning. VFR is expected
for KDDC/KGCK. A trough axis will move east today with southerly winds
becoming southwesterly 5-15 kt. Overnight LLWS possible at KGCK late
tonight through the end of TAF pd.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Will keep the Red Flag Warning intact this afternoon for areas
along and west of Highway 83. Southwesterly downslope flow will
bring drier and warmer air into southwest Kansas today. Winds may
not be overly strong but we should see frequent gusts to 25 mph.
While there is some uncertainty as to the magnitude of the drier
air and how far east it spreads, the models continue to show
breezy and dry conditions continuing on Monday, spreading farther
east than today. Will keep the Fire Weather Watch in place for
Monday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 91 56 92 50 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 94 52 93 47 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 94 55 95 47 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 96 54 95 49 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 85 53 90 50 / 10 0 0 0
P28 89 61 93 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-080-084>089.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-079>081-089-090.
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
718 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Radar returns over the past 30 minutes show weak showers
developing roughly along the highway 30 corridor. Rap shows a
respectable theta e gradient near the area with some weak lift
from a passing upper level disturbance. Rap trends keep the theta
e gradient over the area through mid-morning followed by downward
motion as the disturbance exits the area.
The fog behind the dissipating front has been fairly spotty so far.
Thus will continue to issue statements about the fog. With sunrise
commencing, the fog should slowly begin to lift.
The forecast will be updated shortly to reflect the developing
showers.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
06Z surface data has a cold front from central Lake Superior into
northwest Kansas. Dew points ahead of the front were in the 60s with
40s and 50s behind the front. Dew points in the 30s were across the
northern Plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
The showers and isolated thunderstorms will slowly end west of the
Mississippi before sunrise as the cold front starts moving into the
area. Patchy fog will be possible across much of eastern Iowa.
The cold front will stall out across the area during the morning and
then dissipate during the afternoon. Lingering showers east of the
Mississippi after sunrise are expected to end by mid to late
morning.
Dry and warm conditions are expected during the afternoon with
temperatures above normal.
Tonight, the early evening hours will initially be dry. As forcing
increases during the evening, isolated showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will develop north of highway 30 near a developing
warm front.
The warm front will then slowly move north after midnight and
confine any rain to the highway 20 corridor. Temperatures tonight
will be well above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Looks like a roller coaster ride next week starting Monday.
Monday...bumped temps and wind up and dropped dew points a bit
anticipating we will mix out the very warm temps at 925/850 mb
ahead of the cold front progged to move into Iowa during the day.
In fact if parameters come together, especially lower dew points,
we could approach Red Flag conditions for the potential of crop
harvest fires Monday afternoon with warm temps, low RHs and gusty
winds.
The cold front pushes through the area during the day Tuesday,
but the real cold air holds off for the passage of an upper level
trough in the latter half of the week. That secondary surge of
cold air and trough passage might generate some showers, but
amounts should be generally light if they occur at all. 850mb
temps drop to around 0C Thursday-Friday suggesting low temps in
the 30s, at least in the north which implies a frost/freeze risk.
Though all the way out at day 7 on Saturday, models indicate a
decent warmup with 850mb temps warming ~10 degrees Saturday.
Strength of WAA suggests potential for showers, but model QPFs do
not.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
A dissipating cold front across eastern Iowa and far northern
Illinois has created VLIFR to IFR conditions behind it. Ahead of
the front, MVFR to VFR conditions were found. Conditions behind
the front will slowly improve to LIFR/IFR through 18z/16 with MVFR
conditions after 00z/17. Ahead of the front, MVFR/VFR conditions
will continue that will slowly improve to VFR after 00z/17.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Wolf
AVIATION...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
907 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Based on current HRRR and RAP output, as well as current trends
off of the VIS satellite now that it is getting light enough to
look at it, decided to extend the dense fog advisory into Buena
Vista and Ida counties in northwest Iowa, as well as Yankton
county in southeast SD. There are indications that the dense fog
could drift northward into Hutchinson and Turner counties also.
However did not put them in a headline for now as am a bit
concerned about mixing potential late this morning helping to
scour the worst of the fog out in those areas. But would not rule
out some dense fog in Hutchinson and Turner at least in the
southern areas. Also extended the headline until noon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Complex forecast ahead through the next 24 hours, mainly due to
impact of lower clouds and fog. Frontal boundary which passed
through the area yesterday has slowed/stalled just south of the CWA,
with near-surface moisture pooled near boundary. Fog and low clouds
have spread back into parts of northwest Iowa after 06z across Ida
County and neighboring areas. Light near-surface flow starting to
lose its slight northerly component and thus has shown signs of
pulling a bit more rapidly west and northwest over the last hour or
so. Earlier issued a dense fog advisory through into mid-morning for
areas near/east of Sioux City, but behavior of high-resolution
solutions would suggest will need to expand north/west from this
sooner rather than later, taking severely reduced visibility and
very low ceilings all the way to KMHE and even north of there by mid
morning. Even if fog begins to dissipate, the strong inversion will
mean considerable low clouds which will wedge across much of the CWA
except the far west, and take much of the day to expand to the far
east around KMJQ and KMWM. Some significant concerns that
persistence of fog and lower clouds will have a stronger impact on
high temperatures, but profiles indicate that will have at least
upper 60s to lower 70s even under clouds.
Otherwise, warm advection across the far western CWA producing a few
light echoes on radar west of K9V9. So very dry below deck of mid to
high clouds that have not bothered to add even any sprinkles as weak
lift forcing builds east/northeast toward KBKX through the morning.
Strong surface gradient will increase south to southeast winds,
which could reach gusts to 30 to 35 mph west of I-29 during the
midday and afternoon. With humidity levels somewhat higher, fire
danger will remain restrained, with caveat of harvesting activities
having a heightened risk.
NAM is by far most aggressive with development of some instability
by very late afternoon and especially early evening across parts of
SW MN. Most other solutions indicate that moisture will remain
largely below the strong inversion, and useful only for stratus and
perhaps as moisture deepens toward evening of a couple of sprinkles
as again find a small bit of positive area in profile below the
inversion. Will keep some lower pops mainly parts of SW MN and NW
IA during the evening, but indications are anything more organized
or significant is likely to develop just north/east of our CWA
across Minnesota was wave moves past the area during the early
evening.
Frontal boundary associated with stronger wave north of the area
tonight will drop southeast, and result may be an attempt to do the
fog and low clouds thing all over again. Have included some post-
midnight areas of fog mainly southeast of a KMWM to KYKN line.
Mid-level frontogenesis increases by late tonight along areas toward
KHON, but again appears quite dry below any mid cloud deck to
preclude any mention of precipitation.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Monday will be a warm day as a wave passes and cooler air begins to
work south. Ahead of this front winds will be mainly less than 15 mph
and temperatures will warm into the 70s. Some warmer readings and
slightly breezier conditions will be likely along the Missouri River
into south central SD where readings closer to 80 will be possible.
Monday night into Tuesday some marginal saturation aloft and mid
level thermal band will provide a threat for showers. Will keep the
chances along and north of Interstate 90 with the better chances in
southwest Minnesota. Monday night northwest winds may become a bit
breezy but models have been a bit off on timing of this boundary so
how long the breezier conditions continue into Tuesday is a bit up
in the air. Needless to say winds do not appear as though they will
be as strong as previously thought. Highs Tuesday should top out in
the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday will see a reinforcing shot of cooler air as an upper
level wave passes to the south. Will maintain some lower chances for
rainfall south of Interstate 90 but not anticipating too much in the
way of weather. Otherwise with the cooler air highs Wednesday will
be a bit below normal while highs Thursday will be another 5 degrees
or so cooler.
Made some modifications to temperatures Friday and Saturday. The
inherited temperatures seemed to cool and were likely a remnant from
the deep low that the GFS had on previous runs across eastern Iowa
into Illinois. If the latest EC and GFS verify Friday and Saturday
will likely be another 5 to 10 degrees warmer than forecast,
especially Friday. Far enough out that it is not realistic to go
that much warmer given timing and placement problems in the models.
At this time not anticipating any precipitation potential Friday and
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
VLIFR conditions to persist around KSUX through the morning,
while larger stratus field likely to advect west and northwest
into southeast South Dakota and northeast Nebraksa. Likely that
KFSD will get some IFR to lower MVFR ceilings by later morning
which will continue this afternoon, perhaps with a brief period of
MVFR visibility. Another weak frontal boundary working across
the area tonight could set up KFSD and especially KSUX for another
late night of fog and stratus.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for SDZ069>071.
MN...None.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for IAZ020>022-031-032.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Chapman
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Chapman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Patchy dense fog is developing in Barton County where KGBD dropped
to 1/4 mile at 2 AM. Remainder of KICT Country is clear but SE 5 to
15 mph winds have managed to hold most temperatures to around 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Highlights:
1) Dense Fog Advisory Issued For Russell, Barton & Lincoln Counties
Until 10 AM CDT.
2) Record Temperatures Possible This Afternoon & Mon Afternoons.
This Morning:
Light Ely winds advecting higher sfc dewpoints into the 3 Nwrn-most
counties coupled with clear skies have induced patchy dense fog to
develop at KGBD. Short-term solutions, more so the RUC & HRRR, are
so far pin-point accurate with their fog depictions for these areas
in spreading the dense fog into Russell & Lincoln Counties. As such
a Dense Fog Advisory is being issued for these 3 counties until 10
AM by which time sly 10-15 mph winds will have asserted themselves
to scour the fog.
This Afternoon:
A strong sfc low centered near the MT/ND border will move slowly E
to induce S winds to increase considerably across Central & Ern KS.
With an 850-mb trof shearing as it pushes E into Central KS to
induce flow just off the deck to become Swly & greatly increase the
setup would be ideal for temperatures to really take off. It`s very
possible that record highs may be reached in several areas, so be
looking for Record Event Reports early this evening.
Tonight-Mon:
With a strong Swly flow just off the deck, prevailing summer-like
weather will continue. A few record warmest mins may be set in SE
KS where lower-deck moisture is more plentiful. Record highs are
once again very possible in all areas as strong Swly lower-deck
flow continues to keep a well-defined thermal ridge positioned from
the Panhandles & Wrn KS thru Central & SC KS.
Mon Night-Tue Night:
The "Heat Wave" will end as a sharp, positively-tilted mid-level
shortwave sprints E. By early Tue Morning the shortwave should
extend from the Great Lakes to Ern Nebraska. This would push a cold
front SE that is still scheduled to arrive Central KS Mon Evening
then SE KS early Tue morning. Moisture is still lacking when the
front arrives so no more than the "customary" S/SW-Nly wind shift
would signal the front`s arrival/passage. With the mid-level short
wave surging E across Quebec Tue Night the front will decellerate
& likely stall from Central/Srn MO, thru SE KS, to NE OK. This
would enable moisture to pool across these areas & set the stage
for thunderstorms to develop late Tue Night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Wed & Wed Night:
With the front lurking from Srn MO to Ern OK showers & isolated
thunderstorms may continue to in SE KS Wed. The rain should end
Wed Night as fairly strong high pressure pushes E/se across the
Nrn Plains.
Thu-Sat:
The remainder of the week will be nice as a fairly strong zonal
regime prevails for most of these periods.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
LIFR Stratus/fog will affect the RSL and GBD terminals through
about mid morning, before southerly winds and mixing increase
allowing it to dissipate. Southerly winds will gust to 23-30 knots
across central/eastern Kansas toward midday into this afternoon,
with mostly clear skies expected area-wide this afternoon into
tonight.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Record Temperatures:
Oct 16th:
Chanute: 88 In 1995
Russell: 90 In 1958
Salina: 88 In 1958
Wichita: 89 In 1995
Oct 17th:
Chanute: 87 In 1938
Russell: 90 In 1991
Salina: 89 In 1991
Wichita: 90 In 1991
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 88 66 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 87 63 90 54 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 86 66 88 56 / 0 0 0 0
ElDorado 86 67 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 88 68 90 61 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 88 55 90 49 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 90 56 92 50 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 87 63 91 52 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 86 63 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 88 69 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 86 68 88 63 / 0 0 0 10
Iola 85 68 87 63 / 0 0 0 10
Parsons-KPPF 87 69 89 64 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ032-033-
047.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMC
CLIMATE...EPS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
724 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 414 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016
00Z raobs/latest wv imagery and RAP analysis show a shrtwv/sfc lo
pres near James Bay exiting to the ene ahead of a shrtwv rdg axis
moving thru the nrn Plains. Cold fnt attendant to the departing
James Bay lo pres and accompanying showers have clrd the ern cwa
ahead of a hi pres rdg moving into MN under the Plains shrtwv rdg/
larger scale subsidence. Although some fog lingers over mainly the
se cwa, the influx of very dry air depicted on the upstream raobs,
where 00Z pwat was as lo as 0.41 inch at INL, in the nw flow ahead
of the approaching hi pres rdg is clearing any leftover clds acrs
the e. Farther upstream, a strong shrtwv is moving newd into the nrn
Rockies out of the base of a trof along the Pac NW coast. Local
raobs show 12hr h5 hgt falls arnd 100m associated with this
disturbance.
Main fcst concerns in the short term wl focus on pops tngt
associated with aprch of vigorous shrtwv now moving into the nrn
Rockies and associated sfc lo pres/warm fnt.
Today...Passing sfc hi pres rdg/very dry airmass ahead of shrtwv rdg
axis that is fcst to reach the wrn Great Lks late today wl result in
mosunny conditions for Upr MI. With h85 temps topping out arnd 10C,
expect max temps to rise well into the 60s away fm the cooling
influence of Lk Sup in the veering n to ne llvl flow. Some mid/hi
clds ahead of upstream waa in advance of the nrn Rockies shrtwv
moving out into the nrn Plains wl arrive over the w by later in the
aftn.
Tngt...Sharpening pres gradient btwn shrtwv/lo pres moving e fm the
nrn Plains toward Upr MI and retreating hi pres rdg wl allow for
axis of vigorous waa powered by h925-85 llj ssw winds up to 40-45
kts/isentropic lift best shown on the 300-305K sfcs/area of deep lyr
qvector cnvgc to pass across the Upr Lks. This forcing will bring a
band of showers arriving fm the sw near the WI border arnd 06Z and
then overspreading the rest of the cwa except for perhaps the far e
by 12Z. Maintained a mention of some elevated TS as many of the
models show SSIs a few degrees blo 0C/mucapes aoa 500 j/kg with h85
temps as hi as 13-14C. Most recent SPC outlook has the WI border
zones on the edge of a marginal elevated svr wx risk in WI for hail
with steep h7-5 lapse rates up to 7C/km. With the waa/steady winds/a
good deal of clds, temps wl run above well above normal, especially
over the w where the thicker clds/stronger waa wl arrive earliest.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016
Nam shows a 500 mb ridge over the southern plains and a broad trough
over the western U.S. 12z Mon with a shortwave moving into the upper
Great Lakes. Another shortwave ejects out of the broad trough and
moves into the upper Great Lakes Mon night. GFS and ECMWF show about
the same thing as well and will use a blend of them for this
forecast. Have likely pops in for most of Mon and Mon night for the
cwa. Bumped pops up a bit on Mon for the cold front that moves
through the area. Other than that, did not make too many changes to
the going forecast.
In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500mb broad trough over the
Rockies 12z Wed with a ridge over the sern U.S. with a ridge on the
west coast. A trough moves into the northern plains 12z Thu with
850mb temperatures dropping to -4C. This trough digs into the
central U.S. 12z Fri with 850 mb temperatures still remaining at -4C
over Lake Superior. With Lake Superior temperatures running from 9C
to 12C, this is enough lake-850 mb delta-t for lake effect pcpn. The
trough moves into the ern U.S. 12z Sat with a broad 500 mb ridge in
the western U.S. Temperatures will stay near normal to slightly
below normal for this forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 723 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016
The combination of a hi pres rdg crossing the Upr Great Lks and very
dry airmass shown on the upstream 00Z raobs wl result in light
winds/VFR wx at the TAF sites into this evng. But once the sfc hi
pres exits to the e and a lo pres/warm fnt aprch fm the wsw tngt,
the pres gradient wl sharpen. The incrsg sly llj wl bring a return
of more llvl mstr/MVFR cigs/some showers at the sites overngt. There
could even be a TS, mainly at IWD. Added llws late with the
strengthening llj over the lowering warm frontal invrn.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 414 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016
Nw winds up to 20 kts today ahead of an approaching hi pres ridge
will veer to the e by this evening and then to the se late tonight
while increasing up to 25-30 kts under the tightening pres gradient
between the hi pres ridge departing to the e and an approaching lo
pres from the northern plains. Expect the strongest se winds up to a
gale force 35 kts to occur over eastern Lake Superior late tonight
into Mon morning. After coordination with Environment Canada, opted
to issue a gale warning for this area for 09Z-15Z Mon. These strong
winds will diminish thru the day on Mon as the lo pres/weaker
gradient moves over the Upper Lakes. As another lo pres moves ne
near Upper MI late Mon into Tue, a strong NW wind up to 25-30 kts
will develop in its wake before weakening to about 20 kts or less
Tue night thru Thu with the approach of a hi pres ridge/weaker
gradient.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for LSZ266-267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
811 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Periods of rain will continue today, mainly south of
the Golden Gate. Rain could be locally heavy in the Santa Cruz and
Santa Lucia Mountains. Locally strong and gusty southerly winds
will occur today, mainly across the southern portion of the
forecast area. Showers will continue regionwide through tonight,
with some lingering showers possible into Monday. Dry weather will
return to all areas by Tuesday and persist through the rest of the
week and into next weekend. A robust warming trend is forecast
from Tuesday through Friday as high pressure builds over
California and offshore flow develops.
&&
.DISCUSSION...As of 8:10 AM PDT Sunday...Widespread rainfall will
continue this morning for locations from San Mateo County to the
south. Radar returns have mostly been light to moderate although
based off of various gauges locally heavy precipitation has been
falling at times. Latest run of the HRRR continues to show two
main areas of concern for today -- Santa Cruz Mountains and the
Santa Lucias. Of particular concern are the Loma and Sobranes
areas where heavy rain could lead to debris flows. Based off of
CHP reports and number that are both in and projected, a flood
advisory has now been issued to specifically handle Santa Cruz
Mountains/Loma location. Will keep a close eye on values around
Sobranes and issue a similar product if needed. We will be
providing quite a few updates via social media today with the
latest values and information.
Otherwise, look for rain to remain focused over the southern half
of the CWA through the afternoon. Rain will change over to showers
later in the afternoon through at least midnight. Showers will
taper off after that with dry conditions expected for the work
week.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...The frontal boundary that swept through
the San Francisco Bay Area on Saturday afternoon and evening
stalled over the Monterey Bay Area on Saturday Night. Radar
currently shows a band of showers from Santa Clara and Santa Cruz
counties south into northern Monterey County. Rain rates along the
boundary overnight have mostly been light except moderate at times
in the Santa Cruz Mountains. Little or no rain has fallen
overnight from San Francisco northward. Our region remains in the
warm sector of this weather system with early morning temperatures
ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Expect rainfall along the nearly stationary boundary to become
more widespread and increase in intensity by mid morning as a wave
developing along the front offshore approaches the coast. As this
wave approaches, rainfall will likely shift a bit northward as
well. But the models agree that the bulk of today`s precipitation
will fall south of the Golden Gate and be primarily focused on
areas where rain is currently falling. Of primary concern is the
expected increase in rainfall intensity across the burn scars from
the Loma and Soberanes Fires. As much as 2 inches of rain has
fallen on the Loma burn scar since yesterday afternoon an upwards
of 1.5 inches on western portions of the Soberanes fire scar. The
latest HRRR model forecasts up to an additional four inches of
rain today on the Loma Fire scar and up to three more inches for
Soberanes. And both the WRF and HRRR models forecast rain rates in
these areas in excess of a half inch per hour at times from mid
morning through early afternoon. These rainfall amounts and
intensities could trigger mudslides and/or debris flows over the
burn scars or downstream of the burn areas today. A flash flood
watch is in effect for the burn areas through this evening.
Winds have decreased considerably overnight in most areas, but
remain locally gusty in the hills. Expect winds to increase once
again by midday as the frontal wave approaches the coast. Winds
will be strongest across the southern portion of our area. The WRF
forecasts wind gusts as high as 40 mph from late morning through
mid afternoon, with the strongest winds near Monterey Bay and in
the southern Diablo mountain range as well as the Santa Lucias.
Winds speeds are expected to remain below advisory levels except
at a few exposed coastal locations and locally in the higher
hills.
The frontal boundary will finally move off to the southeast late
this afternoon and evening as the broad upper trough offshore
shifts inland. The upper trough will trigger widespread shower
activity overnight tonight...and this is when the North Bay will
get back into the precipitation action. In fact, the North Bay
will probably see the most widespread shower activity overnight.
Gusty southwest winds will continue overnight as well. Scattered
showers will linger into Monday morning and some model output
keeps a few showers going over the North Bay into Monday afternoon
as a final shortwave trough skirts across far northern California.
All precipitation should end by Monday Night. Dry weather is then
expected for the remainder of the week and on through next
weekend.
A warming trend is forecast from Tuesday through Friday as an
upper level ridge builds over California. In addition, offshore
flow is forecast to develop by midweek and so temperatures will
warm well above normal all the way to the coast by Thursday. Highs
are expected to reach into the 90s across the southern portion of
our forecast area by Thursday and Friday. Friday looks to be the
warmest day with cooling anticipated next weekend as onshore flow
returns.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 5:00 AM PDT Sunday...As of 12z, scattered light
showers continue for the South and East Bay region, while more
widespread, moderate showers continue to impact the Monterey Bay
terminals. A secondary band of moderate showers is expected to
push through the area by mid-morning. Primarily MVFR CIGs this
afternoon, with intermediate VFR conditions. CIGs/VIS could
potentially drop to IFR with heavier pockets of rain that occur.
South/southwest winds will be gusty again today, sustained at
15-20 kt, with gusts around 30 kt possible for some locations.
Low confidence on CIG and rain timing. Moderate confidence on
winds.
Vicinity of KSFO...Mostly MVFR CIGs with brief periods of VFR this
morning. Hi-res models suggesting showers around 15-16Z. VIS may
drop to IFR levels with heavier showers. Southwesterly winds will
be gusty this afternoon, gusting around 30 KT.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Periods of light to moderate rain
currently impacting the Monterey Bay area. MVFR/IFR CIGs and VIS for
the most part today. More widespread rain expected later this
morning that will last through the afternoon. South/southwest
winds 15-20 kt, gusting to around 25 kt this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...as of 04:29 AM PDT Sunday...A frontal system is expected
to remain over the central waters through the day today before
getting pushed east by an upper level trough. Light to moderate
southerly winds will decrease and become southwest Sunday night.
Light to moderate showers will continue through Monday and could
reduce visibilities. Hazardous seas will continue to be a threat
through at least monday morning, perhaps even later.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...Coastal Flood Advisory...Entire Coast from Sonoma
County south to Monterey County
Flash Flood Watch...Loma Fire Burn Scar in the Santa
Cruz Mountains
Flash Flood Watch...Soberanes Fire Burn Scar in the
Santa Lucia Mountains
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar
SCA...Mry Bay
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION: BAM
MARINE: BAM
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
709 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Dense fog continuing to spread northwestward and expect trend to
continue and last into the late morning. Extended the dense fog
advisory to account for this. Parts of southeast Nebraska should
improve from the south after sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
The primary forecast concerns are in regards to fog and low clouds,
which may have some impact on high temperatures today.
08z observations and IR fog satellite product show fairly
widespread dense fog in western Iowa and parts of eastern
Nebraska. This should hold most areas into mid morning and may
expand west as suggested by some recent high resolution short
range models (RAP, HRRR, HRRRX). With time, boundary layer and
surface winds should increase from the southeast. HRRR run from
06Z even kept some fog into northeast Nebraska through early
afternoon, so have kept highs coolest there (lower to mid 70s).
Light winds again tonight may lead to fog formation after
midnight. Did not mention dense fog for tonight at this time due
to low confidence on exactly how low visibilities will go. Look
for lows mainly in the 50s, with some lower 60s in southeast
Nebraska and the southern parts of southwest Iowa.
If fog dissipates as expected Monday, it should be a mild day with
southwest low level winds and modest mixing. Guidance suggests high
temperatures mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with some upper 80s
possible near the Kansas border. That scenario seemed reasonable and
was close to the previous forecast.
Cooler air will start to slip in behind a front Monday night,
dropping highs into the upper 60s north and lower 70s south for
Tuesday. Normal highs are in the lower and mid 60s, so Tuesday
would still be considered mild.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
The longer range models are in pretty good agreement with the large
scale pattern in most of this period. A trough will be out in the
Pacific along 160 degrees west longitude Tuesday, which then
moves east to around 140 west by Friday. Also through this period,
a trough will move across the plains (Tuesday through Thursday)
while a ridge develops over the Rockies. The Canadian model
pattern at 500 mb was an outlier, compared to the GFS and ECMWF,
so it was not given any weight. As the ridge expands slightly east
and broadens, our temperatures should moderate slightly toward
next weekend.
Kept some chance of showers going for at least parts of the area
from Wednesday into Thursday, but at this time any amounts are
expected to be very light.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Dense fog will continue to spread northwest thus mention
VLIFR/LVIFR conditions until the winds begin to pick up 5 to 10kts
then 10 to 20kts early in the afternoon. Improving conditions
forecast from south to north as the warm front lifts north to vfr
this afternoon. Would expect patchy fog to return at all through
sites tonight.
&&
.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ015-018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Zapotocny
SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
210 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Water vapor imagery showing a strong storm system over the Pacific
Northwest/Intermountain West. RAP analysis showing strong 300mb jet
energy of 110-160kt blowing through northern CA into WY. This energy
will have an impact on our weather here tonight into Monday.
For the time being...high pressure was providing the area with a
glorious Mid-October day. Under mostly sunny skies across most of
the area, temperatures as of 2 pm were in the 60s with even a few
lower 70s across far southwest WI.
Rapid changes expected late this evening/overnight as that
aforementioned energy starts to impact us. A warm frontal boundary
will surge northeast into the area this evening as surface
cyclogenesis takes place on the leeside of the Northern Rockies.
Strong 925-850mb moisture transport/isentropic lift over the front
expected to fire convection mainly along/north of I-90. RAP showing
MUCAPE around 1500J/KG and effective bulk shear in the 60-70kt.
This begs the question of whether the shear will be too strong to
sustain a strong core updraft. Believe there will be a few that will
be able to sustain some larger hailstones but remaining sub-severe.
Appears highest hail threat will be along and north of the I-94
corridor. Otherwise...a very mild night on tap in warm air advection
with overnight lows only dropping back into the upper 50s/middle
60s. In fact, new records may be established for highest lows for
the 17th. See climate section below for details.
Monday afternoon into Monday evening is a concern as models show a
deepening surface low moving northeast into the region from the
Central Plains. This wave will be moving along a boundary in place.
This sets up a very dynamic high helicity/strongly curved hodograph
environment across our area. Fly in the ointment will be amount of
stratus and even some patchy drizzle which is forecast to be in
place, which in turn, will limit CAPE. NAM soundings also show a
fairly strong cap in place across the area, centered 700-750mb. This
would limit surface based storms. On the other hand...if cap is not
as strong and more CAPE is realized, we could be looking at an
increased severe potential including the potential for a few
tornadoes. We will continue to watch this environment very closely.
Otherwise, temperatures on Monday will be much above normal, topping
off in the 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Tuesday through Wednesday...
Looks cooler and dry Tuesday through Wednesday as a weak surface
ridge of high pressure drifts across the region. Look for highs in
the upper 50s to the middle 60s, which is still some 3-5 degrees
above normal.
Wednesday night through Sunday...
The GFS and ECMWF continue to slide a longwave trough through the
area, bringing cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s and lows in
the 30s and 40s into the weekend. The models have also come into
better agreement with timing of this trough moving through, though
the 16.12Z GFS continues to cut off a low over the southern US, but
is much less aggressive in doing so and farther east than previous
runs. The region will mostly remain dry through the period, but it`s
difficult to rule out a shortwave or two working through and giving
the area a couple chances for showers.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Good VFR expected thru the afternoon hours as drier E-SE low level
flow prevails. MVFR/IFR cloud decks to then quickly return this
evening. This as shortwave energy comes across the plains and the
lower level flow turns southerly bringing abundant 925-850mb
moisture/clouds northward. These conditions, along with some MVFR
vsbys in BR then expected to persist across the area thru most if
not all of the late night/Mon morning hours as a stronger sfc low
and trough aloft move into the region. One stronger round of lift is
set to spread across the area tonight, producing sct SHRA and a few
TSRA. Given the sct coverage of SHRA and what looks to be more
isolated coverage of TSRA along I-90, for now only carried a VCSH
mention roughly 03z-09z at both KRST/KLSE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Very mild conditions are expected through Monday with overnight lows
tonight in the 60s. These overnight lows will be some 20 to 25
degrees above normal. In fact, there is a chance that both Rochester
and La Crosse will set new record warm low temperature readings for
October 17th. Below is a look at those records as they stand
currently:
Record Warmest Low Year Established Forecast Low
------------------ ---------------- ------------
La Crosse 64 1994 65
Rochester 62 1953 64
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS/Aegerter
AVIATION...RRS
CLIMATE...DAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
503 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Latest HRRR runs have been hinting at a cluster of thunderstorms
developing from north central South Dakota into south central
North Dakota late this afternoon and early evening, along the warm
frontal boundary as it moves east. Convective diagnostics support
thunderstorm growth if the cap breaks with mid level lapse rates
greater than 7.5 and MU capes 500-1000. Last few volume scans
show several cells developing in north central South Dakota per
HRRR. Updated for thunderstorms across teh far southeast CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
A large-scale upper level low/trough extended from the Pacific
Northwest across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains. The first
potent upper level shortwave impulse associated with this
large-scale system was currently moving northeast across
Saskatchewan and North Dakota. The surface expression of this system
is a low over the southern border of Alberta/Saskatchewan...with a
trough extending southeastward to another low over southwestern
ND/northwestern SD. Strong and gusty southeast winds ahead of the
surface system had reached wind advisory criteria (sustained at 30
mph with gusts to 40 mph) over south central ND into the James
Valley. Behind this system westerly winds at 15 to 30 mph are
expected this afternoon into the early evening.
Although some Burleigh and Emmons county stations remain in wind
advisory criteria at 3pm...expect winds to diminish this hour as the
surface trough approaches from the west. Will extend the wind
advisory for the south central Coteau and James Valley counties
until 7 pm cdt.
The surface trough is forecast to move east across the state today,
arriving in the Red River Valley later this evening. Expect the
southeast winds to decrease as the surface trough approaches...then
westerly winds kick in. Thus expect that the wind speeds in the
James Valley should decrease below advisory criteria this evening.
Westerly winds overnight should remain at around 5 to 15
mph...keeping temperatures from dropping too much. Looking at
overnight lows from the upper 30s northwest to upper 40s southeast.
Scattered to isolated showers over the state this afternoon may
linger in northern and central/eastern parts of the state late this
afternoon and early evening...then should end in the James Valley
during the early evening.
Expect clearing and a quiet night most of tonight behind the wave.
Meanwhile the second potent shortwave in the large-scale system digs
south as it crosses the Rockies tonight over Utah/Wyoming...reaching
southern ND before daybreak. An upper level jet streak associated
with the shortwave moves across WY/SD/MN. Instability along this
feature may induce a band of rain showers across southern ND daytime
Monday. Thus have a chance of showers along the
SD border late tonight...then some higher chances across southern ND
daytime Monday. Looking at partly cloudy skies north and mostly
cloudy south...with highs from the 50s south to lower 60s north.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Upper level shortwave energy continues moving across the state
Monday night into Tuesday.
The next upper level trough moves east across the Northern Plains
Wednesday/Thursday...but a split flow in the pattern should shunt
any precipitation away from ND. It will allow some cool air moving
south out of Canada. Looking at highs in the 45 to 55 range by
Wednesday.
After that a building upper level ridge expanding out of the desert
southwest should keep any big precipitation-makers away from ND.
This will also allow for a nice warming trend with highs back into
the 55-65 degree range by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Gust southerly
winds central and gusty westerly winds southwest this afternoon.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ023-025-036-037-
047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
347 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure extending from southern Virginia to off
the Mid Atlantic Coast will drift slowly to the south today and
Monday. A weak cold front will move to near the New
York...Pennsylvania border tonight and Monday, before retreating
back to the north as a warm front later Monday and Tuesday.
Southwest flow aloft will bring much above normal daytime and
nighttime temperatures to the region right into Wednesday. A weak
cold front will push through the Commonwealth Wednesday...followed
by a slight cooling trend for Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Active long line of showers north through west of CWA will inch
closer to area later this afternoon and tonight. Ahead of this
area HRRR consistent in showing showers breaking out...and radar
has shown this north of border in NYS. So will keep pops in the
forecast through tonight with highest chances furthest
north. With warm moist air and cloud cover in place...overnight
lows will be well above average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal system never really makes it through the area and begins
to retreat with ridging and higher heights building in from
south. Will have pops in forecast until front clears area and
there could be enough instability for a few thunderstorms to form
on Monday. Another warm day with temperatures well above average.
Quiet night on Monday night though fog and low clouds likely to
form late with the ample low level moisture and longer nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong southwest flow of air will keep warmer than normal
temperatures across the region into at least Thursday. Trend is
for the cold front not to drop as far south by Tue.
Did up temperatures some, especially on Thursday. Adjusted
temperatures on Thursday by about 5 degrees. Fits in better
with others and model solutions.
Still looks like some rain and cooler temperatures for late
in the week. Would not be surprise if by the time the colder
air moves in, it is less than what the models show.
For now, enjoy the nice weather. 850 mb temperatures support
temperatures at least in the lower 80s by Tuesday. Given the
west to southwest flow, if we get much mixing, most likely it
would be warmer than the lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail areawide with winds picking up from
the SW (and becoming gusty over the west).
A weak cold front get close enough to bring likely cig
restrictions and scattered showers to the NW mountains (including
KBFD) late day and esp tonight. Central areas should remain VFR,
but a low cloud deck will again likely develop in the lower Susq
early Mon morning.
Outlook...
Mon...Showers cig reductions possible, mainly north.
Tue...Improving conditions.
Wed...Chance showers and poss reductions NW half.
Thu...Chance of showers.
Fri...Chance of showers.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...Ross
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Ross/Martin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Record heat will continue Monday. Widespread upper 90s and even
some 100 degree readings were found from far southwest KS into the
northeastern Texas Panhandle. The usually hot-bias RAP and HRRR
models were spot on today. Since this is the case, it should be
the model to follow for Monday. As crazy as it sounds, we could
add a couple degrees tomorrow in a corridor from Liberal to Dodge
City, as the 850mb thermal ridge expands northeast just ahead of
the advancing cold front. This is a classic pattern for very warm
temperatures with the hottest readings immediately ahead of the
front in the downslope, west-southwesterly momentum surge. The
all-time October record high for Dodge City is 98 degrees. It is
not impossible to think that we could flirt with 100 degrees in
Dodge -- a feat never accomplished in this month going back to
1874. It would have to be perfect timing of the front just north
of Dodge by late afternoon with little or no influence from high
clouds, though. The official forecast calls for a high of 97 at
Dodge City (and a good portion of southwest KS for that matter).
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
The longwave pattern through the week will have a fairly high
zonal index and be quite progressive. This will result in dry
frontal passages through the entire period going into late next
weekend. The strongest front of this period appears to be
Wednesday, when a nose of +5 to +7C at 850mb temperatures moves in
from the north. A large, sprawling surface high will encompass the
Central Plains by late in the week, but as the primary synoptic
scale trough passes by to our north, the precipitation chances
will be near-zero with moist trajectories well off to the east of
our region of the world. Another warm period looks to develop by
Friday, if not for sure by Saturday, as another fast-moving polar
jet moves across the far northern CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
VFR through Monday, with at most some scattered cirrus. Included
some westerly LLWS overnight at DDC/GCK overnight as westerly
850 mb winds increase to near 30 kts. After 15z Mon, SW winds
15-25 kts at GCK/DDC, slightly weaker at HYS. Just beyond this
TAF forecast cycle, a strong but dry cold front will bring strong
gusty north winds to all airports around 03z Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 97 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 52 95 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 55 95 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 54 97 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 53 90 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
P28 61 94 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ043-061>063-074>077-084>087.
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ Monday for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-080-084>089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
328 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Stratus and some patchy fog continues to plague the northeast
portion of the forecast area this afternoon. South and western areas
have some sunshine. With the clouds, the temperature has been kept
cooler.
Main concern for the period will be if there will be fog again
tonight. There is a surface low to the north of the forecast area
with light winds expected through the night and into Monday morning.
All of the models have some low level moisture across the area. The
HRRR has lower visibilities for late tonight and the SREF has a
pretty good chance for visibilities lower than a mile. The best
location for this would be in the eastern part of the area and
toward the central part of the forecast area. That area could have
visibility around a mile or less again in the morning. Some of the
models show it starting after 03Z tonight and moving out better than
it did this morning, having it gone by 15Z. If it does move out on
time, the highs tomorrow should be in the 80s, but if the clouds
linger too long will have to watch the temperatures in the
northeast/eastern part of the area.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
The surface low over the area on Monday will sink to the south and
bring a cold front through the area mainly late Monday afternoon and
evening. It will be late enough in the day to have little impact on
temperatures Monday and even Monday night will be similar to lows
tonight. The colder air will finally be felt on Tuesday with
temperatures cooling off. Tuesday and Tuesday night will continue
dry with a weak surface high that moves through the area. An upper
level wave moves into the area Wednesday and there is a chance of
showers mainly across the Nebraska portion of the area during the
day Wednesday and into the evening hours before they move out.
Temperatures cool off Wednesday night and Thursday remains on the
cool side as a surface high moves through the area. An upper level
ridge builds to the west of the area and there will be some warm
advection Thursday night through Saturday. Temperatures will show a
little warming trend through this period. Another cold front moves
through the Sunday and cools temperatures off a bit.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Visibility has been improving across the area, but still needs to
come up a little for VFR. The ceilings have been a little slower
to come up but should give way in a few hours. Expect some fog and
stratus to return tonight. Will start with some MVFR conditions.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
235 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
As noted in earlier, some of the mesoscale models were on the right
track, showing the formation of light showers near the I-65 corridor
(Cullman, Jefferson, St Clair counties) tracking northward. Given
this activity, have added showers for the later afternoon for our
more eastern counties. Despite most areas having more clouds than
direct sun, high temperatures in a few spots have warmed into the
lower 80s.
.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
With a loss of daytime heating, showers affecting the eastern areas
should dissipate. Even though mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are
expected for most areas, could not rule out a brief return of mostly
cloudy skies (as lower level moisture condenses into strata-cumulus)
before daybreak - more likely a possibility over our eastern areas.
To the west, patchy fog formation given more clear skies expected.
Right now, do not have mostly cloudy nor patchy fog in the grids
given low confidence of it occurring.
With more expected direct solar insolation, very warm for mid October
warmth will continue across the Tennessee Valley the first half of
the upcoming workweek. Have highs in the mid/upper 80s across the
area on Monday, and nearing 90 in a few spots on Tuesday. 850 temps
per the NAM Tue afternoon should warm to ~18C over north central
Alabama. As such, area record high temperatures will be given a run
for the money the first half of this week. High temperatures for the
mid week will still be well above normal, but not as warm as Mon/Tue
as the next storm system nears from the west.
Date KHSV KMSL
Mon 17th 89/1938 90/1915
Tue 18th 88/1926 91/1915
Wed 19th 90/1926 89/2005
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Long range synoptic models have come into better agreement over the
last two model runs breaking down the upper ridge much more quickly
on Wednesday night into Thursday. In fact, both ECMWF and GFS
forecast enough moisture/lift to pool ahead of the approaching trough
axis over northwestern Alabama/western Tennessee to produce some
isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms Wednesday night. Some
of these storms could be strong producing gusty winds to around 45
mph and frequent lightning. Especially given the very dry air aloft
will be in place along with a moistening boundary layer, and CAPE
values progged to be between 1000 and 1500 J/KG. DCAPE values are
forecast to climb to around 1000 J/KG late Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Expect lows to be rather warm, only dropping into the 60 to 65 degree
range due to stronger southwesterly flow in the low levels of the
atmosphere.
Coverage of precipitation/cloud cover will increase as the surface
front and upper level trough axis pushes into northwestern Alabama
on Thursday. More abundant cloud cover/precipitation over
northwestern Alabama into southern middle Tennessee as early as
Thursday morning should keep highs cooler in those areas (lower to
upper 70s). The precipitation looks like it will be in the form of a
scattered line of showers and thunderstorms. The models forecast the
500 mb jet with this system to be between 35 and 40 knots. This is
more shear than we have seen in a long time, but should only amount
to some storms along the line producing winds gusts again to around
45 mph and frequent lightning, with CAPE values forecast ~ 1500 J/KG.
Luckily, there is little dry air aloft forecast by models, so
stronger storms look unlikely at this time (unless a stronger low-mid
level jet develops than currently forecast).
Lows will be cooler Thursday night (lower 50s), as some cold air
advection occurs. However, models soundings do hint at some
instability aloft keeping a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast. They will not be nearly as strong though. A few showers
could linger into Friday, as the more amplified trough axis slowly
pushes further into Georgia. Cloud cover and cold air advection will
make for a noticeable change, as temperatures only climb into the 65
to 70 degree range. Northwest winds should also be stout, with
sustained winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 to 25 mph. The only
caveat with the departure timing of the precipitation/clouds is that
GFS continues to further amplify the departing trough axis and form a
cut-off low over Georgia. This could hold in cloud cover a bit longer
if this occurs than current forecast.
High pressure will push in and settle over the area Saturday and
Sunday. This should make for a nice weekend with highs between 66
and 75 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Although shower activity had ended across the Tennessee Valley,
local and regional radar indicated new showers trying to form near
and north of the I-20 corridor. Per latest RAP and HRRR runs, any
activity that forms could affect areas near KHSV and eastward.
Persistent stratus (some with MVFR cloud bases) should slowly erode
during the course of the early afternoon. Given that stratus has
hung on across the central areas (KHSV), am maintaining MVFR CIG
values a few hours longer. Also with low altitude moisture in place,
have a TEMPO for MVFR CIGs late tonight. Fewer clouds out west and
light winds before daybreak could also produce brief MVFR fog at
KMSL. VFR conditions otherwise should return across the region
shortly after sunrise Mon, with SSW winds of 5-10kt expected.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...RSB
For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
352 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT MTNS...RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREAS MONDAY...
A very dry airmass is in place over the region today and winds have
been meeting Red Flag criteria across most of the area. Winds
should lessen on the plains...but persistent westerly flow into the
lee side trof will keep critical fire weather conditions along the
lower east facing slopes and adjacent plains into the evening
hours...so will maintain current Red Flag warning until 9 PM.
Strong jet stream punching through the western U.S will cause mtn
top winds to increase quickly after 00z. Already seeing wind gusts a
little over 70 mph at times across Pikes Peak and MYP this
afternoon. Have upgraded the high wind watch to a high wind warning
for the peaks above 10000 feet starting at 00z given current
conditions. Best mountain wave parameter set up occurs during the
overnight hours...with peak period between 06z and 15z. Profiles
look best across the Wet Mountains and Sangre De Cristo mountains
where best reverse shear will be in place and there will be a chance
for a mtn wave induced critical layer to set up. Inversions appear
a little too low in model soundings to help reflect winds down into
the lower elevations of the I-25 corridor...so think high wind
warnings will be confined to the mountain zones. HRRR is also
hitting the southern I-25 corridor from time to time (mainly
along/west of I-25 from Walsenburg area to the NM line) with some
high winds after 06z. A little less confidence in this
occuring...but parameters look favorable enough to go ahead and
hoist the high wind highlights. Mtn peaks should stay windy through
most of the day tomorrow so extended the high wind warnings through
4 PM. Its likely as the mtn wave decays...lower elevations may be
able to be taken down sooner...but will let later shifts refine this
as needed.
Relative humidity values will remain low tonight with poor humidity
recoveries expected for most areas...but in particular for the
southeast mountains and lower eastern slopes. This should result in
a faster onset of critical fire weather conditions for Monday so
have started the Red Flag warning at 9 AM. It will take a little
longer for winds to spread eastward across the plains...and winds in
model soundings aren`t as strong farther east within the surface
trof axis. However...with deep mixing we should be able to tap
winds in excess of 25 mph and given the very dry conditions it won`t
take much to experience rapid fire spread. So all Fire Weather
Watch areas have been upgraded to a Red Flag warning with the
afternoon package. The lower elevations of Chaffee and Lake counties
may also hit critical fire weather conditions again...but for
now...conditions do not look widespread enough across the zone for
an upgrade.
Given the volatile conditions in place...any activities that could
spark a fire should be curtailed tonight and Monday. Any fire
starts that do occur have the potential for extreme fire behavior
and rapid rates of fire spread. This will be particularly true
along and west of I-25 where winds will be strongest. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
...Continued Very Dry...
Not much hope in the extended for any significant precipitation. In
fact, aside from the late Tue through Wed period, there may not be
any precip at all. The only good news is that beyond Mon night, it
looks like winds will not be terribly strong across our CWA and
cooler, though still above average, temps will prevail.
Cooling will begin on Tuesday, following a diffuse cold frontal
passage. Should see temps generally in the 60s to lower 70s for
highs on Tue. Some light showers could move into the Sawatch Range
by late in the afternoon or early eve.
Main wx system in the extended will be the trough on Wed. This
system once showed some potential for amplification, but the last 24
hours or so of model runs have made it fairly clear that the
progressive wave solution will win out this time. So, instead of the
cutoff low over SE CO or NM, looks like a rather quick-moving trough
across N CO. This system will bring some light snow showers to Lake
County, which could possibly accumulate to an inch or so locally,
and possibly a few snowflakes to Teller County and the Pikes Peak
Region early Wed. But this is the optimistic solution, and the
latest NAM suggests that even the northern zones could remain
dry.
Following this system, a summer-like ridge will strengthen over the
western third of the nation, and a steady warm-up will occur
through the end of the week and into the weekend. POPs during this
time will basically remain near zero. Winds aloft and near surface
will remain generally light during this time. The next chance of any
precip will hold off until early the following week at the earliest.
Rose
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Conditions will remain VFR over the TAF sites. Main challenges will
continue to be with the winds. KCOS and KALS should continue to see
breezy west winds through 01-02z...while it could be more
intermittent at KPUB. There is a chance of LLWS at KCOS after 09z
tonight...though appears that wind shear may stay just above 2kft
for now. There will certainly be pockets of LLWS tonight closer to
the mountains as Mtn top winds increase to around 60 kts by 06z.
West winds will spread down into the lower elevations again on
Monday with gusts to 35 kts possible at all three terminals in the
afternoon. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ221-222-
224>237.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ221-222-
224>237.
High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Monday for
COZ087-088.
High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM MDT Monday for
COZ072-074-079-081.
High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM MDT Monday for
COZ058-060-061-066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
320 PM PDT Sun Oct 16 2016
SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain...heavy at times, gusty winds, and high mountain
snow into Monday. Drier weather expected the rest of the week with
warming temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Wide area of light to moderate precipitation has continued over
southern portions of the CWA today with an embedded line of
moderate to heavy precipitation. This line has maintained its
identity throughout the day and has produced upwards of 3/4 of an
inch per hour. This has resulted in ponding of water on roadways
and sharp rises on small creeks thereby warranting issuance of an
urban and small stream advisory. The line is moving around 15 kts
to the east and approaching several burn scars but weakening
significantly as it does.
Meanwhile upstream front is pushing onshore along NW California
and will spread another round of widespread precip over the
northern half of the CWA this evening. Satellite showing some
clearing over the Northern and Central Sacramento Valley ahead of
front and latest HRRR showing an area of higher CAPE in these
areas to support isolated thunderstorms. Shear profiles continue
to support possible rotating storms.
KRDD-KSAC surface pressure gradient is up to 6 MB and wind
advisory criteria is occurring in the Northern Sacramento.
Strongest winds expected in this area for the Central Valley with
most other areas not likely to reach advisory criteria.
Snow levels presently around 7000 feet in the Shasta mountains to
well above 8000 feet over the Sierra Nevada. Snow expected to
remain above pass levels this evening but gradually lower
overnight to near 6000 feet in the north to 6500-7000 feet over
trans-Sierra passes. Light snow accumulations are possible at
Donner Pass on I80 and Echo Summit on Highway 50 tonight into
Monday. Lassen Park and higher elevations passes such as Carson
Pass, Ebbetts Pass and Sonora Pass could see more significant
amounts of snow impacting travel tonight. Winter Weather Advisory
for early season snow has been issued to address this.
GEFS/GFS showing integrated water vapor transport decreasing over
Interior NorCal Monday with models indicating main threat of
light showers confined to the foothills and mountains and possibly
Northern Sacramento Valley. Heights increase offshore Tuesday and
build inland through midweek resulting in drier weather with
warming temperatures.
PCH
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
A flat ridge will be in place over the west coast bringing dry
weather and slightly above normal temperatures on Thursday.
Systems passing to our north will keep the ridge relatively flat
and unchanged through the early part of the weekend. Both the GFS
and ECMWF show a weak trough approaching Northern California on
Sunday with the majority of the energy passing to our north. The
GFS brings in some high clouds to our area while the ECMWF has a
few sprinkles across the mountains. For now, we have kept the
forecast dry through the extended. Wilson
&&
.AVIATION...
Another frontal band of rain will work its way south and east
this evening bringing MVFR and IFR conditions. Expect it to move
through KRDD around 02Z and KSCK around 06Z. Behind the front,
southerly winds will weaken. Somewhat concerned with the
development of low clouds and reduced visibility behind this front
tonight but not yet confident enough to put it in the TAF. In
general, improving conditions expected for the Southern Sacramento
and Northern San Joaquin Valley on Monday with showers confined
to the mountains and Northern Sacramento Valley. Wilson
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Burney Basin /
Eastern Shasta County-Central Sacramento Valley-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern
Sacramento Valley-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
Areal Flood advisory until 5 PM PDT for eastern portions of the
Southern Sacramento Valley, Motherlode, and West Slopes of the
Northern Sierra Nevada.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada.
&&
$$