Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/15/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1020 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control of the region through the middle
of next week. Expect a warming trend with above normal
temperatures. Moisture and a chance for precipitation will return
to the area late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A flattened upper ridge over the forecast area downstream of an
upper trough over the lower Mississippi Valley is resulting in
continued high level cloudiness moving west to east across the
region. A surface ridge centered over New England ridging down the
east coast is providing an east to southeasterly low level onshore
flow also resulting in some patchy stratocumulus clouds. There is
some uncertainty as to how extensive the lower stratocumulus
clouds may become as HRRR indicates low level stratus developing
near the CSRA later tonight and shifting westward into central
Georgia where the better isentropic lift is located. Will continue
with partly cloudy skies overnight and adjust hourly sky grids to
account for current trends.
Moisture is quite shallow and limited so no threat for measurable
rainfall so dry forecast continues. A weak low level jet around
15-20 knots will help keep the boundary layer mixed a bit and with
variable cloud cover, temperatures could be impacted especially in
the CSRA and southern Midlands. Expect lows in the lower 50s
north to upper 50s south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level short wave will continue to weaken as it moves over
the Southeast this weekend. At the surface, high pressure will ridge
in to the forecast area with winds out of the NE. A relatively dry
air column will likely rule out precip as the upper disturbance
moves overhead late Saturday/early Sunday.
Areas of low stratus will be possible Saturday morning. The NAM
suggests more easterly low level flow then the GFS, which would
advect more moisture into the area overnight. Inconsistencies
between models give low confidence at this point. High
temperatures will generally be in the middle to upper 70s in the
Midlands and around 80 in the CSRA. Expect overnight lows in the
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level ridging builds back in to the region through mid-week as
surface high pressure remains over the area. Dry weather is expected
through Wednesday with a warming trend.
As the surface high and upper ridge shift eastward late next week,
moisture will return to the area. Models show an upper level trough
digging in to the central US next week but become divergent near the
end of the week. The models were showing the trough moving in to the
eastern US but the most recent GFS run suggests a cut off low may
remain in the south-central US with ridging across the SE. There is
a chance for precipitation near the end of the forecast period but
uncertainty is high.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected outside of morning stratus around sunrise.
Weak diffuse frontal boundary south of Midlands sites, but close
to CSRA sites. Weak northeasterly low-level flow will continue
near and just north of the front. High level clouds will continue
to stream across the region through the period. Models indicating
the potential development of low stratus around sunrise. Bufkit
shows a good low-level jet through the night, so tend to lean more
towards the mvfr stratus solution. Still, can not completely rule
out some ifr visibilities at ags/ogb around sunrise also. Expect
any stratus to gradually improve by late Saturday morning. Dry
forecast through the period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR or IFR stratus and fog is
possible during the early morning hours Sunday associated with
low-level moisture in a northeast flow and nocturnal cooling.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
951 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016
.UPDATE...
Main updates to the forecast revolve around sky and wx grids with
minor adjustments to hourly temperatures. The remainder of the
forecast remains unchanged.
Water vapor imagery this evening shows that the shortwave trough
that was responsible for this morning`s rain continues to push
eastward. In its wake---subsidence and dry mid-level air continue
to overspread the region. Further upstream, however, high level
cloudiness was starting to nudge further to the south into the OK
and TX panhandles. This may have some minor bearing on the overall
fog potential tonight. The latest model guidance continues to ramp
up 925-850mb flow across the area, with the strongest speeds out
across western/northwestern zones. This is confirmed by latest
DYX WSR-88D VWP with 20-25 knot flow being sampled across the Big
Country. With the relatively increasing flow at the top of the
boundary layer, I`ve trimmed back the areal coverage of fog and
have confined its mention to areas east of the Highway 281
corridor, despite some of the heavier rainfall across the west.
If low level flow is being over forecast out west, it`s possible
that fog, some dense may form. There may be a chance for some
dense fog out east, but there remains a little too much
uncertainty to carry in the worded forecast at this time.
Increasing upper level cloudiness may also hinder the amount of
radiational cooling somewhat across far northwestern sections of
North TX further limiting the fog potential. The increasing low
level flow should help to transport moisture northward and result
in a blanket of clouds across much of North and Central TX.
Morning cloud cover should slowly erode with heating on Saturday.
The remainder of the forecast looks to be in good shape and
updated products have been transmitted.
24-Bain
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 651 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016/
00Z TAFS
Concerns through Saturday will be the potential for brief MVFR
VSBYs, along with spotty low MVFR/IFR cigs around sunrise. Otherwise,
south flow will continue to increase overnight into Saturday, as
lee-side surface cyclogenesis continues deepening across
southeast Colorado.
Metroplex TAFs...
VFR conditions with occasional high cigs through 11Z Saturday, at
which time increasing southerly low level flow in the lowest 5 kft
enhances some spotty stratus. Per the RUC Ops/Bak40 soundings,
this stratus will occur either side of 1 kft and for now, flow not
strong enough to prevail, so will only TEMPO such occurrence
happening. By 15Z...warming low level temps and increasing south
winds 10-15 kts will allow for the return of VFR conditions.
Waco TAFs...
Similar trends to Metroplex TAF locations, though with weaker low
level south-southeast flow, chances may be better for some brief
IFR conditions around daybreak Saturday. Otherwise, VFR returns
after 15Z with increasing south winds 10-15 kts and warming low
level temps.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016/
Upper level high pressure will build in from the west tonight behind
an exiting shortwave. This will bring increasing dry air aloft
and large scale subsidence. However, moisture will remain in the
lowest levels of the atmosphere. The combination of this lingering
moisture, a damp ground and light wind will result in a chance for
fog overnight. There is a potential for some dense fog depending
on how fast the clouds clear. For now we will just mention
widespread patchy fog and let the evening shift assess the cloud
trends. Any fog that does develop tonight will linger through
sunrise and lift by mid morning Saturday. Saturday afternoon will
be partly cloudy, warm and on the humid side with highs in the
middle and upper 80s.
Low level moisture will remain in place across the region through
the weekend as a surface lee trough develops across the Central
High Plains. This lee trough will develop in response to a low
pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest. The increase in
low level moisture coupled with the upper ridge aloft will result
in hot/humid days and warm nights for mid October. Highs Sunday
through Tuesday will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s with lows
in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
The Pacific Northwest system will move east across the Rockies
Tuesday night while a cold front moves south across the Central
High Plains. The models begin to diverge on solutions beyond
Tuesday night with the GFS deepening the trough across the 4
Corners region while the ECMWF keeps the system progressive and
moves the upper trough to the Central Plains on Wednesday. For now
we will side closer to the ECMWF solution which has been more
consistent with this system over the past few runs. Therefore, we
expect a cold front to move across the region Wednesday/Wednesday
night with some accompanying rain/storm chances through Thursday.
The front will also bring much cooler temperatures for the second
half of next week.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 88 71 89 70 / 5 5 0 0 0
Waco 68 89 69 90 69 / 5 5 0 0 5
Paris 64 86 67 87 68 / 5 5 0 5 5
Denton 66 86 68 87 68 / 5 5 0 0 0
McKinney 67 86 68 87 68 / 5 5 0 0 0
Dallas 70 88 71 88 71 / 5 5 0 0 0
Terrell 67 87 68 88 68 / 5 5 0 0 5
Corsicana 67 88 69 89 69 / 5 5 0 5 5
Temple 68 88 68 89 68 / 5 5 5 0 5
Mineral Wells 65 87 66 89 66 / 5 5 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
05/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
916 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016
.NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 915 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016
Axis of upper trof now extends from ern AR thru wrn TN/KY. Radar
trends are showing that the light shra activity across the area is
continuing to decrease in coverage and intensity. HRRR and the new
NAM data are also showing this trend. As a result will lower pops to
20 percent mainly along the TN and AL border until arnd 08z. Will end
the chc of shra after 08z. BHM 00z u/a sounding was showing a lot of
dry air while the 00z u/a sounding from OHX was much more saturated,
hence the reason to keep the low pops in our zones that border OHX`s
srn zones. The upper trof will slowly move east overnight and
Saturday but with limited moisture not expecting much if any pcpn on
Saturday attm.
.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016
As the mid-level trough axis moves across MS on Saturday,
anticipating that moisture advection will transition from a south to
southeast orientation with moisture originating from the Atlantic to
an orientation where moisture originates from the Gulf of Mexico.
Though lift is present for showers, there still looks to be a dry air
layer in the low-levels that may preclude shower activity.
Nevertheless, will stay with isolated showers during the early
morning hours and transition `higher` POPs to the eastern half of the
CWA (northeast AL/southern Middle TN) for the afternoon and evening.
Clouds should gradually decrease from west to east as the trough
moves east across the TN Valley. As a result of the clouds
decreasing, daytime heating should result in lower 80s highs for most
of the region. The cooler daytime high temperatures would be over
northeast AL.
Despite the rainfall and some slight wind direction change, not
anticipating much in the way of temperature change for Saturday
night. However, overnight lows may dip down into the mid 50s over
northeast Alabama.
Then, a broad anticyclone will rapidly shift northeast from
TX/Northern Mexico with the prevailing northwesterly flow over the TN
Valley on Sunday with dry and warm weather expected. Daytime highs
will still rise into the low 80s with dewpoint temperatures holding
in the upper 50s to low 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016
The long term period starts off dry with a strong surface high
pressure area centered over the southeastern states and weak ridging
aloft. This pattern will remain in place through at least Tuesday
night. The strong ridging coupled with the return of southerly flow
will allow high temps to rise to well above normal values, in the
middle to upper 80s, under sunny skies. Normal highs for this time of
year are in the middle 70s. A similar story exists for overnight lows
both Monday and Tuesday night which will be in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Normal lows are in the lower 50s.
The pattern begins to shift on Wednesday as a trough amplifies over
the Intermountain West as the ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.
starts to break down. Highs on Wednesday will still be warm, in the
middle 80s with lows still in the upper 50s.
This is when things start to get interesting between the GFS and
ECMWF. The GFS holds strong with the ridge over the SE Atlantic which
creates a cut off low over western Texas on Thursday. This interacts
with a plume of moisture from the gulf creating cloudy, wet and mild
conditions basically Thursday through the weekend. The ECMWF (12z/14)
however, is the opposite. It deepens the trough and sweeps the cold
front through overnight Thursday night. This solution would bring
just a line of showers and a few storms (possibly) through the
overnight and dry the rest of the period. 850 temps also would drop
from 14-15C to 2-4C by Friday, which is almost 10 degrees colder than
the GFS.
For now, will keep the POPs from the blend which is just a chance of
showers Thursday through Friday night. Removed some of the previous
mention of thunder and just left slight chance for Thursday and
Friday which would be the best chance of instability, if any
(entirely dependent on which solution verifies). In terms of temps,
it looks like the GFS is the outlier as the blends are on the cool
side similar to the ECMWF solution. This puts highs on Thursday in
the middle to upper 70s and highs Friday in the upper 60s. Lows
Thu/Fri nights also drop into the lower 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at the KMSL and
KHSV terminals. Light rain to the west is expected to diminish
prior to reaching the terminals. Winds will shift to the southeast
overnight and will generally remain in the 5 to 10 kt range through
Saturday afternoon.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...007
SHORT TERM...SL.77
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...73
For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1053 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 06 UTC TAFs is below.
&&
AVIATION...
For the most part, VFR conditions are expected.
MVFR conditions are most likely across northwestern Oklahoma near
KWWR and KGAG. Confidence is moderate that these conditions will
occur and continue before 15 UTC. Not sure exactly when the MVFR
conditions will end at these sites.
There is a chance for patchy MVFR/IFR/VLIFR conditions with BR/FG
nearly anytime and anywhere before 19 UTC, but will not mention
due to low confidence of occurrence. KCSM, KWWR, and KGAG appear
to have the greatest chance for IFR/VLIFR conditions.
Will add convective low level wind shear at KPNC through 15 UTC
where confidence of occurrence is moderate. Otherwise, will not
mention due to low confidence of occurrence.
South to southwesterly surface winds will increase and become
gusty at all sites 13-17 UTC. These winds will diminish 22-24 UTC.
Have high confidence all locations will be VFR after 19 UTC.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1024 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016/
UPDATE...
Only minor updates, mainly to dewpoints, temperatures/mins and
clouds tonight.
DISCUSSION...
There are really mixed signals on what to expect with cloud cover
tonight. NAM/GFS MOS suggest cloudy skies, while HRRR and current
trends suggest quite a bit of clearing except in the southeast
where clouds increase again. Have kind of split the difference as
expect some cloud redevelopment with the ongoing moisture
advection, but have kept more of a gradient with highest cloud
cover northeast and lowest southwest. Temperatures at a few
locations in west central Oklahoma have already dropped to the
forecast mins, so adjusted min temperatures down a degree or two
in some areas. But there will be a floor to how far temperatures
drop with the current dewpoints.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast focus is placed on the unseasonably warm
temperatures this weekend into early next week, along with
increasing fire weather concerns in west and northwestern Oklahoma.
Currently, noticable on water vapor, our 500mb low amplitude short
wave from yesterday continues to make its exit eastward across the
Ozark Plateau. In its wake, low level stratus clouds continue to
linger across portions of the southern plains. Clearing in the far
northwest has resulted in a diurnal response, with temperatures
pushing the upper 70s to 80. Elsewhere, cloud cover will keep temps
low, but subtle breaks in the deck may result in a quick few degree
burst, but mostly, afternoon highs will top out in the mid 70s.
Tonight into tomorrow: already apparent across the western
Panhandles into eastern New Mexico, south and southwesterly flow
will increase as a stout ridge axis sets up from the Trans Pecos
into the central plains. This decent fetch of boundary layer
downslope flow will result in a warming of the boundary layer. Short
range guidance remains in decent agreement through the weekend, with
afternoon 850mb temperatures approaching 20 to 25 C. If these
temperatures are realized, they will place well above the 90th
percentile for OUN off the SPC sounding climatology. This period of
warmth will extend from the weekend through Monday. Highs tomorrow
will be in the mid 80s across much of the region, to around 90 in
western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Record highs are possible
in some locations across western Oklahoma on Sunday where highs will
push into the lower 90s. Monday will be the warmest day, as a
surface front approaches off the western high plains, several
records may be reached, as highs push into the upper 80s in central
Oklahoma to the low to mid 90s in western Oklahoma and western north
Texas.
Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm, but cooler, on Tuesday,
as the surface trough pushes southward, nearly stalling in southern
Oklahoma by the afternoon. Tuesday into Wednesday, long range
guidance begins to diverge significantly. The GFS remains almost
excessively bullish compared to the ECMWF and GEM with the
progression of a deepening 500mb trough over the Intermountain West.
With little confidence from the GFS ensemble, will continue to lean
toward the ECMWF`s nearly dry solution for Thursday, with slight
chances for showers on Wednesday.
Kurtz
FIRE WEATHER...
A shift in the 500mb ridge to the east and the approach of a
deepening lee trough and surface front will result in elevated
fire weather concerns early next week. Strong southwesterly flow
and unseasonably warm temperatures will result in critical
relative humidities Monday afternoon. Additionally, continued
drying of vegetation/fuels will occur, especially over
northwestern and western Oklahoma.
Kurtz
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 65 84 66 87 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 65 85 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 67 87 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 65 91 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 66 84 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 66 85 67 88 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
26/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
253 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Early morning radar mosaic shows a few showers still moving across
parts of central North Dakota. Short term models including the
HRRR and RAP are in agreement that these should end in the next
couple hours. Will watch latest trends and try to limit pops as
much as possible this morning.
The remainder of the day should have decreasing clouds with
seasonably warm temperatures. Have gone with highs generally in
the 60s to near 70. It should be relatively quiet tonight with
lows in the lower to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
The models have been relatively consistent in bringing an H5
trough across the Northern Plains on Sunday, but they have
differed in regards to how much moisture this system will have
with it. The strongest forcing appears to be across northern parts
of the state so will continue to carry the best chance of showers
in that area. An isolated shower could linger into Sunday evening
towards the James River Valley, but most of the forecast area
should be dry.
Small chances of showers continue early next week as successive H5
waves move across the region. There will also be a trend towards
cooler temperatures as a strong upper trough moves through the
central United States towards mid week. It appears temperatures
may bottom out around Wednesday...then slowly begin warming late
in the week as heights again build across the Northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. An
isolated shower or sprinkle can not be ruled out for another hour
or two, but those chances are small enough to omit from the
forecast.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
425 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper level trough will continue moving northwest of the
area today spreading clouds across the area. High pressure will be
in control of the region Sunday through Thursday with an upper
level ridge building over the eastern US. This will result in dry
weather with a warming trend through the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak short wave trough aloft will move northwest of the area today
with some cloudiness crossing the area through the day. At the
surface high pressure centered over the New England states will
ridge into the forecast area keeping easterly winds in place.
Although the short wave will interact with the western Midlands
through the afternoon...with a dry air mass in place do not expect
any chance of rain today. High pressure will continue building
into the forecast area tonight as the high pressure slides
southeastward keeping partly cloudy skies over the region.
Temperatures this afternoon will range from the lower 70s in the
northern Midlands to near 80 in the CSRA with lower to middle 50s
tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue sliding southward along the coast as
an upper level ridge builds over the MS River Valley Sunday and
into the forecast area Monday. This will keep the dry air mass in
place with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies over the region
through Monday night. With the upper level ridge building over
the region temperature will slowly warm a few degrees each day
with no chance of rain. Temperatures Sunday will be in the middle
70s to around 80 with upper 70s to lower 80s for
Monday...overnight lows will be in the middle to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models are in good agreement through much of next week with
increasing differences for Thursday onward. High pressure and the
upper level ridge will remain in place across the region through
Wednesday with an upper level trough digging into the MS River
Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. This will result in low
pressure developing over the region and open the area to Gulf
moisture. Models differ with the handling of the scenario with the
GFS begin more amplified and wetter with the features than the
ECMWF...while the ECMWF has been more consistent over the past
several model runs. As such have made few changes to the forecast
for Wednesday night and beyond as confidence is low...however
change made have been toward the ECMWF due to consistency.
Temperatures through the long term will be above normal through
Wednesday...then near normal as clouds and showers move back into
the region.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected outside of morning stratus around sunrise.
High pressure across the area. Weak northeast to east low-level
flow will advect shallow moisture into the area overnight. Patchy
MVFR strato-cu has been reported in the area during the past
couple of hours. Models indicating the potential development of
low stratus around sunrise and Mos suggesting a brief IFR
threat...mainly at AGS/OGB Terminals. Moderately strong low-level
jet should limit fog development.The latest HRRR supports stratus
over fog. Expect any stratus to gradually improve by mid morning.
Dry forecast through the period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR or IFR stratus and fog is
possible during the early morning hours Sunday associated with
low-level moisture in a northeast flow and nocturnal cooling.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
529 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over New England will drift slowly
southeast over the next several days, becoming centered near
Bermuda by next week. A cold front is likely to work into the
region around Wednesday, then stall over the area through the end
of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9u satellite imagery showing patchy valley fog across Central
Pa early this morning. Based on 09Z sfc obs, it looks like only
patchy frost will be observed across the Susq Valley, where temps
should bottom out in the mid to upper 30s at most spots. HRRR
suggests the fog will burn off between 14Z-15Z.
A return southerly flow of milder air develops today, as surface
high drifts off the Mid Atlantic coast. Abundant sunshine should
push temps into the mid 60s over most of Central Pa, with the
warmest readings relative to normal over Western Pa based on GEFS
925MB temp anomalies.
Low level moisture advection will kick in across Western Pa,
helping to form and push the leading edge of a sct-bkn shield of
high based strato cu...and alto cu across the Alleghenies during
the afternoon hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Low level moisture advection will lead to variable amounts of
cloudiness tonight, leading to milder overnight mins of 45-50F
over much of the region. Model soundings indicate skies will
remain mclear long enough to promote patchy valley fog across the
Susq Valley late tonight.
A dying cold front will push across the Eastern Grt Lks Sunday,
perhaps spreading a few showers into the northwest counties toward evening.
Southwest flow ahead of the front will push 850/925MB temps well
above seasonal norms, supporting max temps in the low to mid 70s.
Model RH time sections indicate most areas will see partly sunny
skies on average Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will slowly sink south and east into early next
week. This should allow lead shortwave energy ejecting from the
Western U.S. trough to push a weakening frontal system from the
Great Lakes into the Northeast by early Monday. Blended model
consensus continues to support a >50 percent of rain over
northwest PA Sunday night with light QPF amounts <0.25 inches.
There are two main weather themes emerging in the latest model
and ensemble data for next week:
1) A period of mainly dry and unseasonably warm temperatures into
midweek (Mon-Wed) with max/min temp departures +10 to +20 degrees
above normal for mid-October.
2) Following the warm spell, a trend toward a cooler and wet
weather from the second half of next week into the weekend, as
a deepening upper level trof over the Miss Valley interacts with
a stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity of Pa.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered restrictions are possible again late tonight. The main
threat will be a few hours of MVFR to IFR at BFD and AOO between
10Z to 13Z. Temperatures get low where VSBYS could drop to 1SM or
less with generally MVFR stratocu through IFR stratocu at BFD
could form briefly. Best chances are between 11Z to 12Z. Another
VFR day on Sat. Winds will be light through the entire period with
a gradual shift from the N/NW around to the SE.
The next frontal system will bring a chance of showers later
Sunday into Monday (mainly to the north). This could be preceded
by a period of cig restrictions late Sat night into Sunday.
Outlook...
Sat...No sig wx expected.
Sun...PM showers cig reductions possible north.
Mon...Showers cig reductions possible, mainly north.
Tue...Improving conditions.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ026>028-035-
036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner
AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
412 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Clouds will increase across much of the area today. High pressure
will still maintain dry conditions through this evening with
seasonably warm temperatures. A frontal system will bring chances
of showers and a few thunderstorms by late tonight into Sunday.
Very warm and dry weather will return on Monday. High temperatures
will reach into the 80s Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Low level moisture trapped below strengthening inversion leading to
stratus development over southern IL and IN early this morning. GOES
Fog product showing rapid northward advancement of clouds and low
level wind field suggest this area should continue to expand
northeast and cover most of forecast area early this morning. Eastern
half of the area may remain mostly clear to start day but expect
eastward progression and at least partly cloudy by mid morning with
mixing and some erosion.
HRRR has had a good handle on the cloud cover and primarily used
today. Strong inversion remains in place most of day and it may be
tough to mix where cloud cover is thickest in the west. This
should also keep temps several degrees cooler today than previous
forecast and blends despite strong warm air advection which is
above inversion. Overnight low temps radiated rather well and with
clouds along with cool start afraid max temps in the mid 70s will
be unattainable in the west unless stratus mixes early. Have
lowered max temps several degrees after collaboration with
neighboring offices.
Northern stream short wave to approach tonight. Expect dry
conditions in the evening with increasing chances for showers and a
few thunderstorms across the northwest primarily after midnight as
thetaE ridge moves in
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Energetic north Pacific jet wreaking havoc with individual
deterministic model runs for much of the long term period. Quite a
bit of run to run and model to model differences yielding a
plethora of solutions for mid to late week.
Precipitation associated with weak short wave on Sunday will be
ending from west to east during the day. Again with cloud cover and
pcpn have lowered temps slightly. Models in fairly good agreement
with clearing skies later Sunday night and strong mixing Monday with
nearly full sunshine. If this indeed plays out we will be looking at
a very warm day with near record highs in the lower to middle 80s
over the entire area. Have raised temps over Superblend given strong
mixing and warm low levels.
Mid to late week forecast remains very uncertain. GFS continues to
develop a strong low pressure system but is flipping from 4 corners
region of southwest CONUS to the Midwest and Great Lakes region from
run to run. ECMWF has remained more consistent with a more
progressive sharp trough moving east and subsequent development of
strong low pressure off of the east coast next weekend. Our area
remains caught between these highly variable solutions. So in these
cases we simply stick with the blends and wait until more certainty
develops in the models. Will likely see more inconsistencies given
amount of jet energy over the sparsely sampled north Pacific. It is
not really a question of if a strong system develops, but when and
where. Expect additional changes to forecast between Wednesday and
next weekend. If ECMWF verifies...higher pops will be needed in the
Wednesday to Thursday period while latest GFS would suggest higher
pops for Friday into Saturday. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
VAD wind profiler sampling 30 kts at 2kft at 05Z as eastern
periphery of low level jet infiltrates northern Indiana. With
surface flow less than 5 kts, opted for LLWS mention through 12Z.
Monitoring MVFR/IFR stratus deck across southern IL and IN quickly
advecting northward toward terminals. For now, kept ceilings at
low end MVFR for KSBN and KFWA after 12Z and 15Z respectively.
Wouldn`t be surprised to see a brief period of IFR cigs at KSBN
around 15Z, however will opt to monitor trends and ammend TAF and
needed. Cigs may be slow to lift/scatter out with MVFR conditions
possible through 18Z.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lashley
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...NG
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
355 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016
07z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the east of Kentucky
with a broad area of low pressure found well to the northwest.
This is resulting in a flow of increasingly warm and relatively
moist air into eastern Kentucky. In conjunction with a building mid
level wave to the west some light showers, but mainly just
sprinkles, have been moving through western portions of the area
early this morning. With not much of a focusing mechanism for this
moisture - expect that to be the case into the daylight hours.
Currently, under mostly cloudy conditions, the latest patch of
these light showers are developing over far western parts of the
CWA and drifting northeast. The prevalence of mid and high clouds
through the region will keep fog at bay for most places through
dawn while the winds continue to be light to calm. Temperatures
across East Kentucky early this morning generally vary from the
mid 50s in the deeper valleys to the lower 60s on the ridges while
dewpoints are mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast as they all depict a wave developing in the
fast and nearly zonal flow streaming across the CONUS. This wave
takes shape later this morning over the Tennessee Valley and Deep
South and slowly moves east. However, it will be overwhelmed by a
burgeoning ridge from Texas later in the weekend and settle off
shore of the southeast states by 00z Monday. Accordingly, there is
a narrow window for when this feature will have an opportunity to
impact the weather over eastern Kentucky. Given the good model
agreement have favored a general blend with a lean toward the
higher resolution guidance from the HRRR and NAM12.
Sensible weather will feature a small chance for measurable rain
this morning and into the afternoon for mainly the western and
northern parts of the CWA as that upper wave takes shape just to
our west. The variable clouds and today`s minor threat of light
rain/sprinkles will not hinder temperatures much as the climb into
the low to mid 70s by afternoon. Likewise, looking for a mild
night in the continued broad southwest flow with a bit less in the
way of clouds and near zero PoPs into Sunday morning. Sunday
proper then brings warmer conditions with more in the way of
sunshine. For most places, despite the increase in dewpoints, the
dry conditions will continue well through the weekend as the main
wx makers stay too far north or south of the area to have much
impact for East Kentucky.
Started off with the CONSShort and ShortBlend for most weather
elements with some adjustments in the near term to bump up PoPs
for at least some sprinkles around this morning. Also tweaked the
spot forecast for temperatures this morning and tonight to account
for some limited terrain distinctions.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016
The first part of the period upper level wise we will see increasing
heights as upper level high progresses east across the SE US. While
this will breakdown, as a trough digs into the Central Plains states
and eventually east through the end of next week. Surface feature
wise we will see a high pressure setup to our east along the Eastern
Seaboard and this feature will be the controlling feature for us. A
cold front approaches the region by the time we get to late
Wednesday into Thursday. The question that remains is what happens
with this feature. Model wise we remain is good agreement overall
through Wednesday and then after this the divergence of the models
becomes more apparent. The issue that becomes apparent in the longer
range is do we see a deep closed low as the GFS advertises or do we
see a open wave as the ECMWF advertises. Overall at this stage WPC
is going with a more compromised approach which seems reasonable,
but given that approach this keeps the upper level feature an open
wave. This open wave thought is also being supported by the
ensembles of both the GFS/ECMWF. In terms of the latter portion of
the period will keep POP grids closer to the model blend given so
much uncertainty.
Impact wise confidence continues to increase that well above average
temps will spread across the region Monday through Wednesday. This
will be brought on by strong WAA pattern and mostly sunny skies.
While sun angles will play a role in the warmth going forward the
antecedent dry conditions will aid in the warmer airmass. That said
leaned closer to the MOS Guide for these periods and temps will warm
into the mid and even upper 80s by Tuesday. This will compromise the
current record high temps of lower 80s both days. Wednesday more
aforementioned uncertainties leading to less confidence on seeing
the warmer temps. The cold front that approaches will bring a chance
of rain mainly to the north on late Wednesday into Thursday, but
given the uncertainties will remain close to the blend which keeps
this slight to chance of rain showers at best through the remainder
of the long term.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, despite the
approach and eventual passage of a mid level wave. Scattered to
broken stratocu at 5 to 8k feet agl will squeeze out a few very
light showers/sprinkles from time to time through this morning.
Winds will remain light and variable until mid morning, before
picking up out of the south/southwest at 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF/GEOGERIAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
256 AM PDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A series of very moist Pacific waves will move across
the region through Monday. Gusty winds will occur once again this
afternoon and evening, with gusts reaching 55 mph across over
northwest Nevada. Periodic showers are expected tonight and
Sunday, but may become widespread on Sunday night with snow in the
mountains. Drier and warmer weather return for the latter part of
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday evening.
A brief respite today from the showers for nrn Nevada as the
region will be in between Pacific waves. The next wave arrives
this evening, but gradient flow tightens today as a powerful
Pacific storm with an anomalously surface low moves toward the
Pacific Northwest coastline. The HRRR model shows strong gusty
winds will develop around midday across Humboldt county with gusts
exceeding wind advisory criteria. The winds will continue until
the next surface front sweeps across northwest Nevada later this
evening. Winds will not be as strong farther east as gradient
flow will be slightly weaker.
Front stalls out on a line from Austin to Wendover Utah, providing
the focus mechanism for showers on Sunday and the next surge of
deep Pacific moisture that crosses the Sierras. The GFS and NAM do
show some convective potential along the front late Sunday
afternoon and evening. CAPE values are below 500 J/kg, but given
strong flow and mid level cold advection, isolated storms are a
possibility.
The strongest short wave crosses nrn Nevada Sunday night. The
amount of moisture transport is a rare occurrence for mid October.
With the stalled front providing a focus mechanism with broad
scale dynamical lift, showers should become widespread with a
possibility this evolves into steady rainfall. The highest
rainfall totals will be concentrated from eastern Humboldt county
through Elko county where valleys could receive 0.25 to 0.50 of
rain, with mountain areas exceeding 1.00. Northern Nye and White
Pine counties will be considerably drier since this is the
southern extent of the surface front. Snow levels will lower with
some accumulations above 8K-9K feet.
.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday.
The period begins with large broad upper trough over the western
United States. Short wave embedded within the mean trough will
race across northern NV Sunday night and Monday bringing showers
to all but the central and southern portion of northern Nye
county. Brief break in activity Monday night except for a few
showers possible along the northern border. Next short wave to
move across northern NV on Tuesday but showers will mainly be
confined to areas north of Interstate 80. Strong upper ridge then
builds into the region Wednesday through Friday for dry weather
along with a warming trend.
&&
.AVIATION...Showers moving out of northeast NV early this morning
with VFR conditions today. Cold front will move across northern
NV tonight bringing showers with local areas of MVFR conditions.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 11 PM PDT this evening for
Humboldt County.
&&
$$
88/91/91
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
309 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A weak LLJ is strengthening and expanding as it shifts out of
North Mississippi into Middle Tennessee. A few light rain showers
are developing in its wake East of I-55. The HRRR seems to be
doing a nice job picking up on these showers...and has them
dissipating by mid morning. Will follow that trend keeping a few
showers around during the morning hours.
Temperatures across the Midsouth are currently in the low to
middle 60s with dew points only a degree or two cooler on average.
As a result...fog has developed across the region and is only
expected to get worse prior to sunrise. We have issued a Dense Fog
Advisory for the entire Midsouth through 9 am.
A moderately strong, positively tilted shortwave is centered over
West Tennessee and North Central Mississippi...shifting slowly to
the East. As is shifts across the Alabama state line and into
Middle Tennessee, any light rain should come to an end. Any
rainfall totals should be minimal.
Southerly flow will strengthen today. Temperatures will rebound
into the low 80s across most of the region...perhaps into the
Middle 80s in North Mississippi. However...early morning cloud
cover may limit daytime warming. We should begin to see
significant clearing by Midday...especially across the southern
half of the Midsouth.
A Ridge will build over the Southern Plains...extending into the
Midsouth today and tomorrow. Temperatures will trend warmer.
Expect afternoon highs back into the middle 80s across most of the
region by Sunday under clear skies.
Zonal flow early next week will gradually transition to weak
Southwest flow by midweek. Temperatures will increase slightly
warmer than the weekend. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the
middle to upper 80s.
A longwave trough will shift East of the Rockies Wednesday. A cold
front will approach the region after midweek...however due to weak
steering flow aloft, there is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding
its timing and how far South it will actually move. This feature
has slowed a bit as expected. Warm temperatures now look to linger
through Wednesday. Guidance varies significantly after midweek.
The GFS features a deep cutoff low over the Midsouth...and the
ECMWF is much more progressive taking an open wave East of the
Midsouth. For now will advertise a cooldown after midweek as well
as enhanced rain chances...but exact details are sketchy. Fairly
confident in the cooldown with far less confidence in the
precipitation coverage as well as nature(deep convection versus
rain) of the precipitation.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs
Back edge of midlevel alto-cu deck had cleared JBR and was
approaching MEM at 0445Z. CIGs and VSBY had decreased over AR, as
the lower levels were more able to cool and saturate. MEM had gone
VFR at 0220Z, while UTA had been LIFR for a good part of the
evening. Expect MEM to gradually fall to IFR once the back edge of
the elevated deck clears the area.
VFR to prevail areawide Saturday, once the morning stratus
dissipates.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
304 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Broad southwesterly flow aloft per water vapor this morning as an
upper wave deepens as it enters Manitoba. In turn the sfc trough
axis over eastern Colorado shifts into western Kansas by morning,
increasing winds in excess of 50 kts at 900 mb. At the sfc,
sustained speeds between 15 and 25 mph are likely through late
afternoon with gusts in excess of 30 mph. Within the moist airmass
upstream of the sfc trough in northeast Kansas, low level stratus
and fog will once again pose a challenge for todays temp forecast.
Several runs of the NAM, GFS, HRRR, and RAP guidance is showing
decent isentropic ascent below the capping inversion at 850 mb.
With near saturation towards the sfc, patchy drizzle is expected
to develop around sunrise and continue through late afternoon
until the upper trough clears eastward and lower dewpoints enter
north central Kansas. As a result of the drizzle and the
persistent stratus lingering through late afternoon, have lowered
highs today a few degrees from the lower 70s over far northeast
Kansas, to near 80 degrees for north central areas.
For tonight, sfc trough holds over western Kansas with the warm
front centered towards the KS and NE border. Southerly winds weaken
to near 10 mph while low levels once again saturate allowing the
stratus to build back in. Still some uncertainty on the possibility
for widespread fog and/or drizzle with no strong signal of
isentropic lift and low level winds staying up. As the drier air
intrudes on north central areas, lows will fall a bit further into
the upper 50s, with low to middle 60s anticipated elsewhere.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Sunday and Monday continue to look dry and well above normal for
temps. Models show the low level warm air advection pattern
continuing with a pretty strong elevated mixed layer (EML) capping
the boundary layer. Models show mid level flow gradually becoming
more southwesterly but prog the better dynamics to remain mainly
north of the forecast area. Since forcing does not appear to be
strong enough to overcome the EML, will maintain a dry forecast
through Monday. Highs will be dependent on how much sun there is
since models continue to show low level moisture trapped near the
surface under the EML. Think there should once again be a decent
stratus deck to start the day Sunday. Although models are not as
eager to saturate the low levels for Monday morning. So the
warmest temps are still expected to be on Monday where there
should be more insolation and slightly more mixing of the boundary
layer. Prev forecast temps look reasonable and have only made some
minor tweaks. See the climate discussion below for the
temperatures records at TOP and CNK.
By Tuesday the initial cold front passes through the forecast area
dry due to limited forcing and the decent EML capping the warm
sector. Unfortunately the uncertainty in the forecast increases
for the last couple days of the work week with the GFS cutting off
an upper low and the ECMWF maintaining a more progressive open
wave through the central plains. The GFS has not shown much
consistency in locating the closed low and the spaghetti plot of
its ensemble members show quite a spread in solutions with the
upper wave anywhere from the AZ/NM region to the Great Lakes at
12Z Friday. The model consensus has kept a chance for precip in
the forecast from late Wednesday through Friday because of the
operational GFS. While confidence in the GFS is low, the bulk of
the ensemble solutions depict some form of an upper low over the
central U.S. through the end of the forecast period so it is hard
to completely rule out the operational solution. Because of the
lack of confidence have opted to keep precip chances in the 20 to
30 percent range. Forecast soundings and progs of mid level lapse
rates from the GFS suggest there should not be much if any
instability by the middle of next week. With this in mind, only
have rain showers mentioned in the forecast. Temps should trend
cooler for Wednesday and Thursday as some Canadian air gets pulled
south with the amplifying pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016
Kept LLWS and MVFR to IFR cigs for the overnight hours, adjusted
timing slightly. Also added VCSH for afternoon hours as steep low
level lapse rates below the inversion look to generate showers
more so in the afternoon. May need these sooner.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Temps are forecast to be near records for Sunday and Monday. The
following are the record high temperatures as well as the warmest
lows for Topeka and Concordia.
Record HighRecord Warmest Low
Topeka
Sunday 8866
Monday9066
Concordia
Sunday8867
Monday9065
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67
CLIMATE...Wolters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
842 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Tweaked sky cover to better reflect current satellite imagery,
otherwise edits to the forecast were minor for this update. Expect
clouds to decrease today as a mid level S/WV trough pushes off to
our east.
UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
No changes other than to blend to observed trends through 11 UTC.
Cloud cover is expected to decrease through the morning as the
90-100kt upper level jet propagates east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Early morning radar mosaic shows a few showers still moving across
parts of central North Dakota. Short term models including the
HRRR and RAP are in agreement that these should end in the next
couple hours. Will watch latest trends and try to limit pops as
much as possible this morning.
The remainder of the day should have decreasing clouds with
seasonably warm temperatures. Have gone with highs generally in
the 60s to near 70. It should be relatively quiet tonight with
lows in the lower to mid 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
The models have been relatively consistent in bringing an H5
trough across the Northern Plains on Sunday, but they have
differed in regards to how much moisture this system will have
with it. The strongest forcing appears to be across northern parts
of the state so will continue to carry the best chance of showers
in that area. An isolated shower could linger into Sunday evening
towards the James River Valley, but most of the forecast area
should be dry.
Small chances of showers continue early next week as successive H5
waves move across the region. There will also be a trend towards
cooler temperatures as a strong upper trough moves through the
central United States towards mid week. It appears temperatures
may bottom out around Wednesday...then slowly begin warming late
in the week as heights again build across the Northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota for the 12 UTC TAF cycle as weak high pressure builds
across the area.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1059 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Low clouds continue to blanket central Illinois late this
morning: however, visible satellite imagery is showing an area of
clearing developing upstream across central/eastern Missouri. As
southwesterly winds increase and better mixing occurs, this
clearing will gradually work its way eastward across mainly the
southern half of the KILX CWA later today. Based on satellite
timing tools and most recent HRRR guidance, it appears the
clearing will hold off until after 19z/2pm. By the end of the
afternoon, most areas south of the I-74 corridor will become
partly to mostly sunny. Afternoon highs will top out in the lower
to middle 70s, but could approach the 80 degree mark across the
far S/SW if clearing occurs sooner.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Low clouds were a bit quicker in arriving across central Illinois
than previously thought as the leading edge has shifted north of our
forecast area with a large area of stratus observed well to the
south early this morning. As the lower layers of the atmosphere
continue to moisten, we should see some patchy fog form along with
some drizzle in a few areas as models continue to suggest some very
weak lift in the moist boundary layer thru mid-morning.
Persistent southerly flow transporting moisture north will continue
today with most forecast soundings showing only a gradual
improvement in sky condition late this morning and into this
afternoon. This will provide a challenge with forecast high
temperatures, which may have a tough time getting into the mid 70s
over parts of our area due to the extensive cloud cover. Some
locations well to our southwest yesterday, where the low clouds
persisted for much of the day, saw afternoon highs only in the upper
60s to middle 70s. Some of the short term guidance suggests our
western counties may see enough breaks in the cloud cover this
afternoon which should help push temperatures well into the 70s in
that area.
A cold front is forecast to approach the Mississippi River late
tonight and bring about the threat for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to our northwest late tonight with a gradual east and
southeast shift in the precipitation towards Sunday morning. The NAM
model showing a 50 kt low level jet to our southwest with the most
pronounced 850 mb theta-e advection and moisture convergence noted
along the nose of the jet which will be focused into north central
through northeast Illinois late tonight into Sunday morning. As a
result, likely POPs will be roughly along and north of the
Interstate 74 corridor for after midnight tonight with progressively
lower POPs to the south. South winds and cloud cover tonight should
keep our temperatures quite mild for the middle of October with most
areas only dropping off into the 60 to 65 degree range by morning.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Threat of showers and storms will continue into Sunday morning
across most of the forecast area, before 500 mb heights build in
response to the boundary lifting northward. This will mark the start
of a short period of unseasonably warm weather. NAM and ECMWF models
project 850 mb temperatures as high as 22C by Monday afternoon,
which would be record territory for this late in the year per SPC
sounding climatology. With skies nearly clear, ample mixing would
suggest highs in the mid to upper 80s. Breezy south winds will mix
down nicely as well, with NAM Bufkit soundings suggesting 35 mph
gusts in the afternoon and the GFS closer to 40-45. Will stay on the
lower end of that range for now, but these may need to be adjusted
upward in later forecasts.
Main forecast uncertainties come in the middle and latter part of
the time range. Nice upper trough will dig south across the Rockies
Tuesday night, as a second trough drops down from central Canada.
There remains some considerable spread in the model guidance for mid
to late week, as the GFS cuts off a large upper low over the central
Plains on Friday, while the the ECMWF phases the two troughs and
eventually forms an upper low just north of the Great Lakes during
that time. This latter scenario would be rather dry but
significantly cooler by late week, while the GFS and Canadian models
feature an extended period of milder but rainy conditions that would
persist into the first part of the weekend. While blended guidance
indicates periods of light rain from Wednesday night through the
rest of the week, considerable spread in the GFS ensembles late in
the week suggest a low confidence event this far out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
IFR to LIFR cigs and vsbys expected to gradually improve to low
VFR cigs after 18z today. Southerly winds have brought quite a bit
of stratus north into our area overnight and should hold thru the
morning hours. Forecast soundings continue to indicate the cigs
will lift and vsbys improve as the morning wears on with sct-bkn
cigs (VFR) this afternoon. A cold front will then begin to slowly
approach our area from the northwest late tonight bringing the
threat for scattered TSRA to mainly our northern TAF sites after
05z. Another concern will be with the strong southerly flow just
off the surface later this evening with the potential for non-
convective low level wind shear, especially along and south of
the I-72 corridor.
Surface winds today will be southerly at 12 to 17 kts with gusts
to around 23 kts at times. Look for south to southwest winds
tonight with speeds in the 7 to 12 kt range.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Record highs for Monday:
Charleston....... 88 (1950)
Effingham........ 85 (1965)
Galesburg........ 87 (1950)
Jacksonville..... 89 (1964)
Lawrenceville.... 85 (1963)
Lincoln.......... 87 (1935)
Normal........... 86 (1938)
Peoria........... 86 (1950)
Springfield...... 86 (1964)
Urbana........... 87 (1950)
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith
CLIMATE...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
647 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Clouds will increase across much of the area today. High pressure
will still maintain dry conditions through this evening with
seasonably warm temperatures. A frontal system will bring chances
of showers and a few thunderstorms by late tonight into Sunday.
Very warm and dry weather will return on Monday. High temperatures
will reach into the 80s Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Low level moisture trapped below strengthening inversion leading to
stratus development over southern IL and IN early this morning. GOES
Fog product showing rapid northward advancement of clouds and low
level wind field suggest this area should continue to expand
northeast and cover most of forecast area early this morning. Eastern
half of the area may remain mostly clear to start day but expect
eastward progression and at least partly cloudy by mid morning with
mixing and some erosion.
HRRR has had a good handle on the cloud cover and primarily used
today. Strong inversion remains in place most of day and it may be
tough to mix where cloud cover is thickest in the west. This
should also keep temps several degrees cooler today than previous
forecast and blends despite strong warm air advection which is
above inversion. Overnight low temps radiated rather well and with
clouds along with cool start afraid max temps in the mid 70s will
be unattainable in the west unless stratus mixes early. Have
lowered max temps several degrees after collaboration with
neighboring offices.
Northern stream short wave to approach tonight. Expect dry
conditions in the evening with increasing chances for showers and a
few thunderstorms across the northwest primarily after midnight as
thetaE ridge moves in
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Energetic north Pacific jet wreaking havoc with individual
deterministic model runs for much of the long term period. Quite a
bit of run to run and model to model differences yielding a
plethora of solutions for mid to late week.
Precipitation associated with weak short wave on Sunday will be
ending from west to east during the day. Again with cloud cover and
pcpn have lowered temps slightly. Models in fairly good agreement
with clearing skies later Sunday night and strong mixing Monday with
nearly full sunshine. If this indeed plays out we will be looking at
a very warm day with near record highs in the lower to middle 80s
over the entire area. Have raised temps over Superblend given strong
mixing and warm low levels.
Mid to late week forecast remains very uncertain. GFS continues to
develop a strong low pressure system but is flipping from 4 corners
region of southwest CONUS to the Midwest and Great Lakes region from
run to run. ECMWF has remained more consistent with a more
progressive sharp trough moving east and subsequent development of
strong low pressure off of the east coast next weekend. Our area
remains caught between these highly variable solutions. So in these
cases we simply stick with the blends and wait until more certainty
develops in the models. Will likely see more inconsistencies given
amount of jet energy over the sparsely sampled north Pacific. It is
not really a question of if a strong system develops, but when and
where. Expect additional changes to forecast between Wednesday and
next weekend. If ECMWF verifies...higher pops will be needed in the
Wednesday to Thursday period while latest GFS would suggest higher
pops for Friday into Saturday. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Confidence increasing in a period IFR ceilings at terminals early
in the TAF. Stratus deck has quickly advected into terminals
early this morning. Surface and satellite obs show a solid area of
IFR cigs in IL and western IN extending northward through KSBN.
Expect mainly IFR cigs for a few hours, with a few jumps to MVFR
per upstream trends. Slightly less confident in IFR cigs at KFWA,
on the eastern periphery of stratus deck. Guidance and upstream
obs support at least sporadic ceiling reduction to IFR, so will
handle this with a TEMPO for the 12Z TAF. Scattering/lifting to
MVFR or better conditions will likely hold off until 18Z or after.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lashley
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...NG
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
635 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016
Updated the PoP and Wx grids to cover the light showers/sprinkles
moving through the western Cumberland Valley ATTM. Also, touched
up the T/Td ones per the latest obs and trends. These have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016
07z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the east of Kentucky
with a broad area of low pressure found well to the northwest.
This is resulting in a flow of increasingly warm and relatively
moist air into eastern Kentucky. In conjunction with a building mid
level wave to the west some light showers, but mainly just
sprinkles, have been moving through western portions of the area
early this morning. With not much of a focusing mechanism for this
moisture - expect that to be the case into the daylight hours.
Currently, under mostly cloudy conditions, the latest patch of
these light showers are developing over far western parts of the
CWA and drifting northeast. The prevalence of mid and high clouds
through the region will keep fog at bay for most places through
dawn while the winds continue to be light to calm. Temperatures
across East Kentucky early this morning generally vary from the
mid 50s in the deeper valleys to the lower 60s on the ridges while
dewpoints are mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast as they all depict a wave developing in the
fast and nearly zonal flow streaming across the CONUS. This wave
takes shape later this morning over the Tennessee Valley and Deep
South and slowly moves east. However, it will be overwhelmed by a
burgeoning ridge from Texas later in the weekend and settle off
shore of the southeast states by 00z Monday. Accordingly, there is
a narrow window for when this feature will have an opportunity to
impact the weather over eastern Kentucky. Given the good model
agreement have favored a general blend with a lean toward the
higher resolution guidance from the HRRR and NAM12.
Sensible weather will feature a small chance for measurable rain
this morning and into the afternoon for mainly the western and
northern parts of the CWA as that upper wave takes shape just to
our west. The variable clouds and today`s minor threat of light
rain/sprinkles will not hinder temperatures much as the climb into
the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. Likewise, looking for a mild
night in the continued broad southwest flow with a bit less in the
way of clouds and near zero PoPs into Sunday morning. Am
anticipating a bit more in the way of late night fog as
radiational cooling looks to be better tonight. Sunday proper then
brings warmer conditions with more in the way of sunshine. For
most places, despite the increase in dewpoints, the dry conditions
will continue well through the weekend as the main wx makers stay
too far north or south of the area to have much impact for East
Kentucky.
Started off with the CONSShort and ShortBlend for most weather
elements with some adjustments in the near term to bump up PoPs
for at least some sprinkles around this morning. Also tweaked the
spot forecast for temperatures this morning and tonight to account
for some limited terrain distinctions.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016
The first part of the period upper level wise we will see increasing
heights as upper level high progresses east across the SE US. While
this will breakdown, as a trough digs into the Central Plains states
and eventually east through the end of next week. Surface feature
wise we will see a high pressure setup to our east along the Eastern
Seaboard and this feature will be the controlling feature for us. A
cold front approaches the region by the time we get to late
Wednesday into Thursday. The question that remains is what happens
with this feature. Model wise we remain is good agreement overall
through Wednesday and then after this the divergence of the models
becomes more apparent. The issue that becomes apparent in the longer
range is do we see a deep closed low as the GFS advertises or do we
see a open wave as the ECMWF advertises. Overall at this stage WPC
is going with a more compromised approach which seems reasonable,
but given that approach this keeps the upper level feature an open
wave. This open wave thought is also being supported by the
ensembles of both the GFS/ECMWF. In terms of the latter portion of
the period will keep POP grids closer to the model blend given so
much uncertainty.
Impact wise confidence continues to increase that well above average
temps will spread across the region Monday through Wednesday. This
will be brought on by strong WAA pattern and mostly sunny skies.
While sun angles will play a role in the warmth going forward the
antecedent dry conditions will aid in the warmer airmass. That said
leaned closer to the MOS Guide for these periods and temps will warm
into the mid and even upper 80s by Tuesday. This will compromise the
current record high temps of lower 80s both days. Wednesday more
aforementioned uncertainties leading to less confidence on seeing
the warmer temps. The cold front that approaches will bring a chance
of rain mainly to the north on late Wednesday into Thursday, but
given the uncertainties will remain close to the blend which keeps
this slight to chance of rain showers at best through the remainder
of the long term.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, despite the
approach and eventual passage of a mid level wave today.
Scattered to broken stratocu at 5 to 8k feet agl will squeeze out
a few very light showers/sprinkles from time to time this
morning and into the early afternoon. More clear patches tonight
may yield better fog conditions toward dawn Sunday, but the TAF
sites are likely to stay unrestricted. Winds will remain light and
variable until mid morning, before picking up out of the
south/southwest at 5 to 10 kts - look for them to drop off again
after sunset.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1031 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.UPDATE...
At 10 AM around the Mid-South a few showers are still ongoing
across eastern portions of the region. Slightly adjusted POPs to
account for latest radar trends, but this activity should come to
an end by this afternoon. Current visible satellite imagery
depicts clearing skies across the region, with temperatures
currently in the mid to upper 60s areawide. No adjustments
necessary at this time for temperatures, as sunshine should allow
highs to warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon.
ZDM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A weak LLJ is strengthening and expanding as it shifts out of
North Mississippi into Middle Tennessee. A few light rain showers
are developing in its wake East of I-55. The HRRR seems to be
doing a nice job picking up on these showers...and has them
dissipating by mid morning. Will follow that trend keeping a few
showers around during the morning hours.
Temperatures across the Midsouth are currently in the low to
middle 60s with dew points only a degree or two cooler on average.
As a result...fog has developed across the region and is only
expected to get worse prior to sunrise. We have issued a Dense Fog
Advisory for the entire Midsouth through 9 am.
A moderately strong, positively tilted shortwave is centered over
West Tennessee and North Central Mississippi...shifting slowly to
the East. As is shifts across the Alabama state line and into
Middle Tennessee, any light rain should come to an end. Any
rainfall totals should be minimal.
Southerly flow will strengthen today. Temperatures will rebound
into the low 80s across most of the region...perhaps into the
Middle 80s in North Mississippi. However...early morning cloud
cover may limit daytime warming. We should begin to see
significant clearing by Midday...especially across the southern
half of the Midsouth.
A Ridge will build over the Southern Plains...extending into the
Midsouth today and tomorrow. Temperatures will trend warmer.
Expect afternoon highs back into the middle 80s across most of the
region by Sunday under clear skies.
Zonal flow early next week will gradually transition to weak
Southwest flow by midweek. Temperatures will increase slightly
warmer than the weekend. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the
middle to upper 80s.
A longwave trough will shift East of the Rockies Wednesday. A cold
front will approach the region after midweek...however due to weak
steering flow aloft, there is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding
its timing and how far South it will actually move. This feature
has slowed a bit as expected. Warm temperatures now look to linger
through Wednesday. Guidance varies significantly after midweek.
The GFS features a deep cutoff low over the Midsouth...and the
ECMWF is much more progressive taking an open wave East of the
Midsouth. For now will advertise a cooldown after midweek as well
as enhanced rain chances...but exact details are sketchy. Fairly
confident in the cooldown with far less confidence in the
precipitation coverage as well as nature(deep convection versus
rain) of the precipitation.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs
Low stratus and fog causing LIFR/IFR conditions at MEM...MKL and
JBR this morning...with strong confidence they rise to VFR before
noon. Expecting TUP to remain VFR. Light winds will become south
at 7-8 kts. Clearing skies and light winds later in the period.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Broad southwesterly flow aloft per water vapor this morning as an
upper wave deepens as it enters Manitoba. In turn the sfc trough
axis over eastern Colorado shifts into western Kansas by morning,
increasing winds in excess of 50 kts at 900 mb. At the sfc,
sustained speeds between 15 and 25 mph are likely through late
afternoon with gusts in excess of 30 mph. Within the moist airmass
upstream of the sfc trough in northeast Kansas, low level stratus
and fog will once again pose a challenge for todays temp forecast.
Several runs of the NAM, GFS, HRRR, and RAP guidance is showing
decent isentropic ascent below the capping inversion at 850 mb.
With near saturation towards the sfc, patchy drizzle is expected
to develop around sunrise and continue through late afternoon
until the upper trough clears eastward and lower dewpoints enter
north central Kansas. As a result of the drizzle and the
persistent stratus lingering through late afternoon, have lowered
highs today a few degrees from the lower 70s over far northeast
Kansas, to near 80 degrees for north central areas.
For tonight, sfc trough holds over western Kansas with the warm
front centered towards the KS and NE border. Southerly winds weaken
to near 10 mph while low levels once again saturate allowing the
stratus to build back in. Still some uncertainty on the possibility
for widespread fog and/or drizzle with no strong signal of
isentropic lift and low level winds staying up. As the drier air
intrudes on north central areas, lows will fall a bit further into
the upper 50s, with low to middle 60s anticipated elsewhere.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Sunday and Monday continue to look dry and well above normal for
temps. Models show the low level warm air advection pattern
continuing with a pretty strong elevated mixed layer (EML) capping
the boundary layer. Models show mid level flow gradually becoming
more southwesterly but prog the better dynamics to remain mainly
north of the forecast area. Since forcing does not appear to be
strong enough to overcome the EML, will maintain a dry forecast
through Monday. Highs will be dependent on how much sun there is
since models continue to show low level moisture trapped near the
surface under the EML. Think there should once again be a decent
stratus deck to start the day Sunday. Although models are not as
eager to saturate the low levels for Monday morning. So the
warmest temps are still expected to be on Monday where there
should be more insolation and slightly more mixing of the boundary
layer. Prev forecast temps look reasonable and have only made some
minor tweaks. See the climate discussion below for the
temperatures records at TOP and CNK.
By Tuesday the initial cold front passes through the forecast area
dry due to limited forcing and the decent EML capping the warm
sector. Unfortunately the uncertainty in the forecast increases
for the last couple days of the work week with the GFS cutting off
an upper low and the ECMWF maintaining a more progressive open
wave through the central plains. The GFS has not shown much
consistency in locating the closed low and the spaghetti plot of
its ensemble members show quite a spread in solutions with the
upper wave anywhere from the AZ/NM region to the Great Lakes at
12Z Friday. The model consensus has kept a chance for precip in
the forecast from late Wednesday through Friday because of the
operational GFS. While confidence in the GFS is low, the bulk of
the ensemble solutions depict some form of an upper low over the
central U.S. through the end of the forecast period so it is hard
to completely rule out the operational solution. Because of the
lack of confidence have opted to keep precip chances in the 20 to
30 percent range. Forecast soundings and progs of mid level lapse
rates from the GFS suggest there should not be much if any
instability by the middle of next week. With this in mind, only
have rain showers mentioned in the forecast. Temps should trend
cooler for Wednesday and Thursday as some Canadian air gets pulled
south with the amplifying pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Tricky forecast this morning with respect to stratus cloud bases.
Majority of obs show MVFR with a gap of drier air between KMHK and
KTOP where deck lifts to VFR temporarily. All short term guidance
points to moisture advection filling in the gap between 13Z and
15Z with high end IFR to low end MVFR stratus holding at all
terminals through 18Z at KMHK and 20Z at KTOP/KFOE. Light, patchy
drizzle is likely under the low stratus during this time frame.
Some uncertainty for tonight in terms of fog potential.
Currently, KMHK sees the highest probability with clearing skies
and calm winds at the sfc. Started off with a mention of MVFR,
but could easily be adjusted as today`s forecast plays out.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Temps are forecast to be near records for Sunday and Monday. The
following are the record high temperatures as well as the warmest
lows for Topeka and Concordia.
Record HighRecord Warmest Low
Topeka
Sunday 8866
Monday9066
Concordia
Sunday8867
Monday9065
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Prieto
CLIMATE...Wolters
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
449 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure shifts south of New England, warmer air will
move into our region starting Sunday. A weak cold front will
bring a round of scattered showers to the region Sunday night, but
a washout is not expected. Unseasonably warm weather follows
through mid week with the potential for near record high
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Unsettled weather with a few
chances for significant rain by Friday and Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Rather tranquil weather through this afternoon. Light northeast to
east winds towards the coasts gradually veer to light south winds
toward late evening. Expecting this south wind to be a bit
stronger than the light north winds we had last night. That,
combined with a few more high clouds, should limit the potential
for frost tonight.
15/12Z NAM continues to be the only guidance source which pushes a
shallow stratus layer over portions of the MA and RI coastal
plains. This layer has a base near 950 mb, and is forecast by the
NAM to arrive toward daybreak. Low confidence in this outcome at
this time with this outlier solution. Will need to monitor later
runs of the HRRR and RAP before gaining enough confidence to go
with a nearly overcast sky. Synoptically, the setup is favorable
enough where the possibility cannot be dismissed out of hand.
Guidance temperatures look reasonable, as it should not be an
ideal radiational cooling night. Temperatures toward the south
coast of MA and RI may be in error if the aforementioned stratus
does indeed develop. Something to monitor overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...
Low clouds mix out as warm air advection is ongoing. H925 warming to
+14-16C as the boundary layer mixes, expect the mix down of faster
momentum to the surface along with drier air. Winds likely gusting
out of the W/SW around 20 to 25 mph. Given the W flow and abundant
sunshine, thinking highs into the upper 60s to low 70s expanding E.
Increasing clouds late with a chance of showers by evening over
far W New England parent with falling heights and mid-level energy
sweeping along with a surface cold front across the NE CONUS.
Sunday night...
A shortwave moves across the region in westerly flow aloft Sunday
night. Decent elevated instability burst associated with the
shortwave, as showalter indices drop to near or just below zero.
Therefore, fairly confident that will see a period of scattered
showers Sunday night, although areal coverage remains uncertain
and activity may be more hit and miss. Given marginal elevated
instability very low risk for an isolated t-storm or two, but
potential appears too low to insert into the forecast at this
time. Increasing low level moisture and clouds should hold
overnight low temps mainly in the middle to upper 50s. Some patchy
fog is also possible, especially near daybreak.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...
* Unseasonably warm with near record high temps Tue/Wed
* High uncertainty Fri/Sat...but a couple of chances for
significant rain from a low forming in the western Atlantic and
from a deepening upper level trough over the eastern states.
Details...
Monday...
Skies should become partly sunny after any patchy fog burns off
by mid morning. 850T around +11C coupled with a mild start should
allow high temps to reach into the mid 70s in many locations. It
may end up a bit cooler along portions of the immediate coast, as
weak wind fields may allow localized sea breezes to develop.
Can`t rule out an isolated shower...best chances in northern MA
but depends on orientation of weak warm front that will be
bisecting the area.
Tuesday and Wednesday...
* Potential for record high temperatures both Tue and Wed *
Anomalous upper level ridge across the southeast U.S. extends
into the Carolinas and pumps unseasonably warm air into southern
New England. With a good amount of sunshine Tue, southwest to
west flow, and 925 mb temperatures near +20C, surface temperatures
are forecast to soar to the lower 80s across the interior and 70s
along the immediate south coast as well as the tip of Cape Ann.
Still expecting upper 70s to near 80 on Wednesday.
Winds could become a bit gusty on Tuesday afternoon...to around 20
mph...as 30-35 kt southwest winds are forecast to be overhead at
850 mb. However minimum humidites are not expected to be low
enough to produce fire weather concerns.
On Wednesday...a mainly dry cold front is expected to move through
the area from north to south, but there remains some uncertainty
as to how far south it actually will go. The 12Z ECMWF halts the
southward progress before it gets to our south coast due to
strong ridging aloft over the southeast states. Have forecast a
slight chance of showers near the front, mainly north of the Mass
Pike on Wednesday. If the front does progress quickly
southward...then temperatures could be cooler than forecast,
especially in northeast MA.
Thursday...A lot depends on the whereabouts of the quasi-stalled
front. The ECMWF has it over southern New England while the GFS
has more high pressure over us. In general...more cloudiness is
expected with highs mainly 65 to 70...cooler at the coast with a
likely northeast wind.
Friday and Saturday... Forecast becomes very interesting but also
very low confidence. There are two main issues and each has the
potential to impact our region.
The first issue is the development of an anomalously deep upper
level trough over the eastern U.S., aided by a 130-140 kt jet at
250 mb diving southeastward on the west side of the digging
trough. Several models are now cutting off an upper low over the
southeastern states in the southern part of that trough.
The second feature is the potential for a low pressure area to
form somewhere in the subtropics, in the vicinity of the Bahamas
or just northeast of there around midweek. All models have this.
However, there are two model camps with this system. The UKMET and
ECMWF are farthest to the east, with the UKMET closer to Bermuda
and the ECMWF now shifting far enough west to give some rain to
Nantucket. The GFS and Canadian models take the system westward
into eastern North Carolina then northeastward across southern New
England, producing heavy rain in the Friday/Friday night time
frame.
The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian now all agree that this western
Atlantic system approaches prior to any impacts from the dynamic
upper level trough, which might be later Saturday or Saturday
night. The possibility exists that this western Atlantic system,
if it develops, could miss us to the southeast and the possibility
also exists that the upper low over the southeast states could
swing out to sea to our south with neither providing us any rain.
However...current Canadian and GFS solutions are prolific with
rain amounts for us.
As you can see, there is very high uncertainty and model
solutions are still several hundred miles apart. For now, have
have opted to increase PoPs to likely in the Friday
afternoon/night period and high chance PoPs for Saturday.
Both days will be cooler with highs only in the upper 50s to mid
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...
Tonight and Sunday...High confidence VFR for most locations. Low
confidence in possibility of low-end MVFR cigs developing mainly
along and south of a line from KWST-KOQU-KEWB-KHYA-KCQX between
16/06Z to 16/18Z. Low risk for patchy MVFR in fog and low clouds
also possible in the CT River valley late tonight.
Winds gradually veer south across all of southern New England this
evening. Will see increasing S flow as we go into Sunday ahead of
a cold front. Increasing clouds, with the possibility of showers
towards Sunday evening at W New England terminals. Gusts 20 to 25
kts possible Sunday.
Sunday night...Low confidence. A period of MVFR-IFR conditions
possible in a round of scattered showers and perhaps some low
clouds/patchy fog.
KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR.
KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday through Thursday...Moderate confidence in mainly VFR
conditions. Isolated showers possible at times. Local MVFR in
patchy late night fog, especially Monday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence.
Will allow the Small Craft Advisory for the outer coastal waters
from east of Cape Cod to southeast of Nantucket to expire at 4 PM.
Expecting seas to continue to diminish overnight.
A cold front approaching the waters late Sunday will result in an
increasing southwest flow. Expecting wind gusts up to 20 KT in
the morning, to increase to around 25 KT during the afternoon. WSW
wind gusts up to around 25 KT anticipated across portions of the
open waters Sunday night until a cold front passes by.
Thinking another round of Small Craft Advisories is in order. will
start them toward mid morning across the eastern outer coastal
water, with start times increasing to mid to late afternoon moving
south and west along the coast.
Dry weather and good visibility prevail through Sunday. Isolated
to scattered showers possible Sunday night.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday...Moderate to high confidence. Winds diminish by early
Monday morning although marginal 5 foot seas may linger southeast
of Nantucket into Monday afternoon.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence. Increasing SW flow
with gusts to 25 kt at times along with building seas on the open
waters, in part due to lingering swell from Nicole. Small craft
advisories will likely be needed for most of our open waters.
A frontal boundary is likely to pass south of the waters Wednesday
or Wednesday night but may meander in the vicinity...so there
could be variable wind conditions with north to northeast winds
to the north of the front.
Thursday...Moderate confidence. Winds and seas below small craft
advisory levels. Most likely a light northeasterly wind, but could
depend on the movement of the aforementioned frontal boundary.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
Tuesday: October 18th Wednesday: October 19th
Boston 82 in 1947 Boston 84 in 1945
Worcester 85 in 1908 Worcester 81 in 1963
Providence 85 in 1908 Providence 81 in 1945
Hartford 80 in 1968 Hartford 82 in 1963
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ232.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ233-235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ231.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 9 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 9 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Field
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Field
AVIATION...Belk/Field
MARINE...Belk/Field
CLIMATE...Frank
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Main concern in the short term will be fog potential tonight. All
the short term high res models show rather substantial area of 1/4
mile or less visibility in post-frontal light upslope flow. The
front (although not really much of one, from a temperature
gradient perspective) will stall out with the winds gaining some
upslope component after dark. Lower 60s dewpoints in south central
and central KS will pool along the boundary and even begin to
slowly advect back to the northwest. Mostly clear sky and light
upslope component winds with trapped, high quality low level
moisture should lead to widespread development of fog as models
suggest. The grids will carry "Areas of fog", but widespread dense
fog will certainly be a possibility. The evening shift will need
to monitor observation trends and hourly HRRR for guidance and
further forecast adjustment. A dense fog advisory may be issued
later if confidence increases.
Going into Sunday, remnant fog and low level stratus will hang
around through late morning, per WRF and NAM12 models. This will
slow the warming potential up north, especially near Hays.
SuperBlend guidance has a high of 88 at Hays, and this may be a
bit optimistic, considering the aforementioned reasoning of low
clouds first half of the day. South of the front, forecast still
looks pretty good with widespread lower 90s forecast in classic
downslope scenario.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
The hottest day looks to be Monday in this synoptic pattern. In
fact, 850mb temperature from ECMWF would suggest surface
temperatures reaching 94 to 96F for a good portion of southwest KS
south of the Arkansas River, just ahead of an advancing Pacific
cold front -- which is usually when the low level thermal ridge
extends northeast immediately ahead of it. The mid 90s would
smash daily records across our area. The hottest temperature
recorded at Dodge City in the station history after October 15th
is 94 degrees (October 17, 1926). There is a very real chance at
tying or perhaps breaking that record.
After Monday, it will be back to fall temperatures with a fresh
Canadian airmass in place. The frontal passage will be a dry one,
though as the main polar jet will still be to our north through.
Another disturbance, though, quick on its heels will move in and
this will bring a better chance for precipitation, although even
that will be best farther north where the mid level frontogenetic
zone will reside. Much cooler low level temperatures will come in
behind the Wednesday/Thursday front, leading to increased freeze
potential over portions of southwest and west central KS by
Thursday and Friday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
High confidence in widespread fog formation tonight. Short term
models agree on this scenario, as surface winds gain an upslope
SE component and pool moisture along a residual frontal boundary.
Highest confidence in dense fog is at/near HYS, but there is
enough agreement and confidence to include a TEMPO group for
1/4 sm dense fog at DDC/GCK as well. Fog is most likely during
the 09-13z Sun timeframe. By 15z Sunday, VFR returns quickly.
Expect SW winds of 10-20 kts at DDC/GCK, with lighter winds at
HYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
The Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
along/west of Liberal to Garden City to Scott City for Sunday. The
surface winds will be borderline, but with the relative humidity
forecast to be down to around 10 percent over this area for a few
hours. Mixing will be deep and feel there will at least be some
off and on gusts to 25 mph to justify the Red Flag Warning.
A larger area of Red Flag conditions will probably materialize on
Monday with stronger winds in the 850-700mb layer. The thermal
ridge will extend farther northeast as well, allowing the
afternoon RH to fall down to critical areas as far east as perhaps
a Kinsley to Coldwater line.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 90 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 48 93 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 52 94 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 49 95 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 54 83 54 90 / 0 10 0 0
P28 61 89 62 93 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ Sunday for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-080-084>089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
241 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Minimal weather impacts this evening into Sunday morning as
subsidence behind short in Manitoba and lower Pwats continue to
erode clouds from west to east. Winds will decouple tonight and weak
SFC ridging will slide across the FA. As a result a rather warm
column, especially for mid october, will cool quickly and temps fall
into the 30s north to 40s south under the clear skies. Some possible
ground fog formation is a threat, especially across the north where
HOPWRF members and a few HRRR runs are showing some lowered
visibilities.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Another seasonably mild mid-October day is on tap for Sunday ahead
of a pronounced shortwave trough that will eject northeastward along
the international border Sunday Night. Strong 850 mb warm advection
and increasing moisture transport will aid in the development of a
band of showers across the area through the day Sunday into Sunday
Night. Will maintain the highest chances over northwest Minnesota
Sunday evening where PWATs are expected to rise to around an inch.
Model soundings indicate up to 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE by Sunday
afternoon/evening. The elevated instability combined with strong
low/mid level warm advection and increasing forcing from the
approaching upper wave suggests the potential for some thunder by
Sunday afternoon/evening, especially east of the RRV.
Not much of a cool down is expected behind this system for Monday,
with highs remaining in the 60s over much of the region. A strong
300 mb zonal jet will progress into the central/northern plains
Mon/Tue, with a few upper level impulses cascading through the flow,
keeping some potential for some showers over the region, especially
across the south. Otherwise, more substantial cooling will occur
beginning Tuesday with persistent low-level cold advection as the
upper flow becomes northwesterly. The coolest days will likely be
during the mid-week period under surface high pressure before a
gradual rebound in temps occurs by late week. Generally quiet
weather is expected for much of the mid-late week time period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
VFR with west winds becoming light overnight and then turning to
the southeast Sunday morning. Possibility of fog in the north with
HRRR/HOPWRF members showing some lower visibilities after
midnight. No mention of fog at TAF sites for now.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Makowski
AVIATION...JK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland Oregon
340 PM PDT Sat Oct 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A complex low pres system off the washington coast will
move toward the NW tip of the Olympic peninsula this evening.
Unstable air behind the low will result in scattered thunderstorms.
A couple of weaker troughs of low pressure Sunday through Monday
night will keep the weather active into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)...Much more complex surface
low along the coast than models had forecast. 18Z ASCAT satellite
derived winds showed a dual low structure with a surface low off
Astoria and another weaker low off newport. This was also seen in the
water vapor imagery as 2 or 3 distinct areas of stratospheric
intrusion in the dry slot of the system. This structure has
stretched out the energy available to drive the system and has made
the forecast even more difficult. As a result the main low is
probably not as deep as expected. The southern low, or trough has
weakens and the northern surface low will again become consolidated
as it moves toward the north Washington coast late this afternoon.
Buoy 29 surface pressure is rising now as the low moves north of
Oregon and is off of Hoquiam at 2 PM. The winds will be decreasing
along the central coast and central coast and the high wind warning
has been cancelled. Also will cancel the wind advisory for the south
Willamette valley. Along the north coast, the occlusion may wrap
back around over the north Oregon and South Washington waters and in
increase in winds late this afternoon but it is more likely that the
winds will be on the decrease. We should be able to lower most
warnings late this afternoon or early this evening.
Some convection is beginning to develop over the waters behind the
main low. The Langley Hill radar has shown the low level jet of 95 KT
has dissipated and the winds are more mixed with height at around 65
KT. Some of these winds could mix down to the surface late this
afternoon and evening in these convective showers. As the shear
environment increases into the evening we could see some stronger
convection develop. The HRRR shows convection developing along the
North Oregon coast during the evening and moving inland. Conditions
will probably not be quite as unstable as on Friday. While there will
remain a possibility of waterspouts or even a low level coastal
tornado during the evening the treat of this for any one
location will remain very small. Stronger thunderstorm wind gusts
will
be more of a possibility as the storms mix the higher momentum air to
the surface.
Showers activity will continue tonight over most of the area and some
of these showers will be heavy. A weak upper ridge will moved
quickly across the early Sunday morning and then another trough
will pass over the area Sunday afternoon and night. Another
disturbance is forecast to approach the coast Monday morning. The
result will be that our area will continue to remain in
a wet pattern through the early part of the week.
Schneider
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)...
Looks like we will get a brief break on Wed as a weak ridge of high
pressure transits the region. Another front moves into western WA
Thurs, then weakens as it slips southward across northwest Oregon
Thurs night and Fri. GFS and ECMWF fairly similar with Saturday
looking fairly dry . tw
&&
.AVIATION...Primarily VFR conditions across the area this
afternoon with strong, gusty south winds. Had a few reports
earlier today of low-level wind shear from pilots landing at
KHIO. Expect strong gusty south winds through 02z-03z with gusts
in the 35 to 40 kt range inland and 50 kt along the coast.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect mainly VFR conditions through the
remainder of afternoon and evening. Strong south wind gusts of 35
to 40 kts expected through 00z-02z, then decrease to around 25 kts.
tw
&&
.MARINE...A strong low pressure system is moving quickly up the
coast today. The low center appears to be just west of Grays
Harbor as of 2 PM, with a central pressure of around 975 mb. The
low may strengthen a bit more as it lifts further north, but will
weaken quickly as it moves onshore near Cape Flattery this
evening. This system is bringing very gusty southerly winds to the
coastal waters. A Hurricane Force Wind Warning remains in effect
for PZZ250/PZZ270, and current observations seem to be supporting
this warning at least over the nearshore waters where a coastal
jet is enhancing wind speeds. The winds have dropped off somewhat
over the central OR waters as the low has lifted north, and based
on the latest observations have decided to downgrade to a Gale
Warning through the 8 PM this evening. The northern waters will
drop to gale force winds later this evening as well.
Seas have increased quickly this afternoon in response to the
strong winds. Buoys 46029 and 46050 both sit above 20 ft as of 2
PM. Expect that seas will eventually peak at 23 to 26 ft over the
central waters later this afternoon, and 26 to 30 ft over the
northern waters by early evening. Will hold on to the high surf
warning through this evening. Most of the wave energy is short-
period out of the SSW, so the most impacts can be expected on the
more south-facing beaches. Given that seas are primarily wind wave
and fresh swell driven, they will drop off reasonably quickly
tonight after the stronger winds have subsided. Think that we will
drop below 20 ft over the central waters early this evening, the
by late evening over the northern waters.
Winds and seas will gradually subside overnight. However, a
trailing surface trough is fcst to move into the waters Sun
morning. This may bring another round of low-end gale force
southerly winds for a period. This may also keep seas in the mid
teens during the morning as well. Then expect small craft advisory
winds Sun afternoon and evening, with seas dropping into the low
teens. Conditions become notably more quiet next week as higher
pressure builds over the waters. Pyle
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Central
Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Northern
Oregon Cascade Foothills.
High Wind Warning until midnight PDT tonight for Coast Range of
Northwest Oregon-Lower Columbia-North Oregon Coast.
High Surf Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central
Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.
WA...High Wind Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Greater
Vancouver Area.
High Wind Warning until midnight PDT tonight for I-5 Corridor
in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South
Washington Coast-Willapa Hills.
High Surf Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for South
Washington Coast.
PZ...Hurricane Force Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for
Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR
out 60 nm.
Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters
from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar until 5 AM
PDT Sunday.
&&
$$
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
330 PM PDT Sat Oct 15 2016
SYNOPSIS...
Additional Pacific storms will move through over the weekend into
Monday bringing periods of rain...heavy at times, gusty wind, and
high mountain snow. Drier weather expected midweek with warming
temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Next Pacific frontal system is pushing inland across northwestern
portions of Interior Northern California this afternoon. 88D
showing widespread precipitation extending from Shasta to Lake
county. Front is moving around 30 to 40 kts and should push
through the CWA fairly quickly this evening with precip turning
showery behind it. Some instability showers showing up ahead of
main baroclinic zone over the Motherlode extending into the West
Slopes. This in the general area where HRRR is showing increased
afternoon CAPE. Precipitation amounts with front look somewhat
limited in the Central Valley due to rain shadowing off the
Coastal mountains in cross barrier flow. Main bulk of
precipitation is expected over the foothills and mountains. Low
level strong southerly flow will provide orographic enhancement
into the Shasta mountains and moist mid level orographic flow will
increase precipitation amounts over the Western Plumas mountains
and Sierra Nevada. Precipitation amounts in these areas could
range from 1 to 3 inches through Sunday morning. Snow levels are
expected to remain above pass levels through early Sunday.
Pressure gradients are continuing to tighten ahead of the front
and wind speeds have reached or are nearing advisory criteria in
the Sacramento Valley. Have expanded the advisory to include the
Southern Sacramento Valley, Delta, and Northern San Joaquin
Valleys. Strongest winds expected ahead and along the front with
winds decreasing with fropa later this evening.
Additional waves are forecast to track across Interior NorCal
Sunday into Sunday night keeping showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the forecast. Best instability depicted Sunday
afternoon into early evening. Highest CAPE values depicted over
the Northern and Central Sacramento Valley in the afternoon,
shifting southward into the Southern Sacramento Valley and
Motherlode by early evening. Bufkit hodographs continue to show
significant 0-1 KM and 0-6 KM shear values tomorrow afternoon to
support rotating updrafts and mesocyclones.
Snow levels will generally remain above pass levels during the
day tomorrow but could drop to around 7000-7500 feet in heavier
showers. Snow levels then lower Sunday night into Monday. Light
snow accumulations are possible at the major pass levels,
including Donner Pass on I80 and Echo Summit on Highway 50 Sunday
night into Monday. Lassen Park and higher elevations passes such
as Carson Pass, Ebbetts Pass and Sonora Pass could receive more
significant amounts of snow impacting travel, especially later
Sunday. If significant precipitation continues Sunday night into
early Monday, dropping snow levels (~6500 feet) could bring the
possibility of travel impacts to the major passes. Will continue
to monitor to see if a Winter Weather Advisory for early season
snow is warranted.
GEFS/GFS showing integrated water vapor transport decreasing over
Interior NorCal Monday with models indicating main threat of
light showers confined to the foothills and mountains. Heights
increase offshore Tuesday and build inland decreasing threat of
precip to just a slight chance over the Shasta mountains. AMS
begins to warm Tuesday under increasing subsidence.
PCH
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
High pressure will build over the west coast on Wednesday pushing
valley temperatures into the mid 70s which is just a couple of
degree below average for this time of year. During this
transition to a warmer airmass, surface pressure gradients will
tighten on Wednesday which could create some breezy north winds on
the west side of the valley. A few more degrees of warming are
expected Thursday/Friday with valley temperatures nearing 80 by
the end of the week. Over the weekend, the ridge axis shifts to
our east although any precipitation will still be well to our
north. Wilson
&&
.AVIATION...
Periods of MVFR/IRF ceilings are expected as rain moves across
the valley this afternoon/evening. The strong southerly winds
currently associated with this system will weaken behind the front
this evening. MVFR and isolated IFR conditions can be expected
tonight with the abundant amount of moisture lingering in the
valley. South winds will once again pick up Sunday
morning/afternoon as another wave moves through. Isolated
thunderstorms possible in the northern and eastern sides of the
valley tomorrow. Wilson &&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Burney Basin /
Eastern Shasta County-Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central
Sacramento Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains
Southwestern Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern
San Joaquin Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-
Southern Sacramento Valley-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.
&&
$$