Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/14/16


Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
913 PM MDT Thu Oct 13 2016 .UPDATE... Current forecast has things well in hand and did not make any adjustments. Winds have increased at Livingston with a gust to 50 mph already reported at the airport. Sensor at Nye reported a brief gust to 59 mph around 7 pm. Surface pressure gradient laying perpendicular to the Paradise Valley and this is the correct orientation for strong winds. Surface pressure gradient was steadily increasing from Idaho Falls to Lewistown and this should increase tonight as 700mb winds crank up to nearly 80kts creating a strong critical layer. Would expect criteria winds at Livingston to be reached by morning, if not sooner. 700mb winds of nearly 80kts does make one concerned about mountain wave activity from Fishtail to Red Lodge. Orientation of the wind was not quite perpendicular to the ridge spine and indications are that potential temperature does not descend down the slope enough to drive these strong winds into the foothills. No doubt, it will be windy above 6-7 thousand feet, just not sure high winds will descend below that level. TWH && .SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat... Powerful jet stream heading into the Pacific Northwest will bring a windy pattern to the western half of the forecast area with moisture for the mountains. Temperatures will be above normal through the period and any moisture that reaches the lower elevations will be light. Winds already sustained above 25 mph at KLVM and approaching energy is going to tighten pressure gradients this evening. Pressure gradients between KLWT and KIDA are expected to double overnight and local guidance strongly supports wind gusts in excess of 60 mph later tonight into early Friday along the I90 corridor west of Big Timber including Livingston and also over the Stillwater River. Current advisory looks good and bigger question is whether strong winds will impact other areas. Looking at hi res guidance HRRR ARW and NMM all want to restrict mountain wave activity to higher elevations overnight and early Friday. One concern is 70 to 80 kt winds progged at 700mb but pressure gradients are oriented southerly with this pattern which is supported by the surface low generating the winds later tonight moving north northeastward from northwest Montana into Alberta as opposed to a more easterly track. Will not spread wind highlights to other areas though would expect very strong mountain winds overnight. Heights fall throughout the day on Friday but downslope is a big factor for the lower elevations. Snow will fall in the mountains but snow ratios should be fairly low and expect periods of showers combined with orographics to be the main reason for accumulation but these will be short bursts. Drier conditions begin to dominate the plains Friday night into Saturday with lighter winds for a generally fall day. borsum .LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu... A progressive flow will prevail over the region during the extended period, with moist westerly flow and unsettled pattern moving into the mountains. Strong ascent moves into the mountains on Sunday and spreads over the Plains. Dry air will limit shower development from spreading eastward to the Plains, however likely PoPs over the Beartooths is expected with transition to snow in the high country during the evenings. Pattern remains cool and unsettled with the biggest threat for precip away from the foothills on Monday as a vigorous front moves through the area. Gusty wind potential on Sunday/Monday due to this front as it moves through the Harlowton area. Seasonable temps with foothills pop chances continue through mid- week with westerly/northwesterly flow prevailing. Walsh && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight. Wind shear concerns after sunset at KBIL...KMLS...and KSHR. Southwest winds gusting to 40 knots in KLVM will continue to increase to 50-60 knots by Friday morning. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 049/069 045/064 048/066 046/061 041/056 039/056 038/058 01/B 21/B 12/W 24/W 31/B 22/W 11/B LVM 050/062 042/061 045/060 044/055 038/050 036/053 038/056 04/W 32/W 33/W 35/W 32/W 22/W 11/B HDN 043/072 045/066 045/068 044/063 040/057 037/057 037/060 01/E 21/B 12/W 13/W 32/W 12/W 11/B MLS 042/072 046/067 045/067 045/061 040/057 038/056 037/058 01/E 11/B 11/B 12/W 31/B 12/W 11/B 4BQ 042/075 046/067 045/072 045/066 040/058 037/058 037/060 00/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 21/B 12/W 11/B BHK 040/073 044/064 043/067 042/062 038/054 034/054 034/057 00/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 31/B 11/B 11/B SHR 044/073 043/065 041/067 042/063 037/055 034/056 034/059 00/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 22/W 12/W 10/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT Friday FOR ZONES 65-66. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
934 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 933 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 A few light showers have developed across eastern Kansas the evening ahead of mid level trough currently over the Plains. The RAP is still showing that a few of these showers could move into southeast Missouri towards morning as the trough continues to move east. Otherwise have made a few minor adjustment to temperatures and cloud cover based on current trends. Britt && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Winds will gradually veer overnight in response to the eastward movement of a sfc high pressure center. A weak shortwave will move across the south-central CONUS tonight, but most of the large-scale lift will remain south of the CWA. A few stray SHRA/TSRA might clip the extreme southern CWA after midnight, but widespread rain is not expected tonight. Overnight lows should be similar to yesterday and perhaps a few degrees warmer due to increasing mid/high clouds associated with the shortwave. Kanofsky .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 (Friday through Sunday) Not a lot of change from the prev forecast. Upper trof currently extending over srn Plains continues to approach the area this afternoon. This trof may generate some light showers with a low chance for thunder across the srn portions of the CWA. The remainder of this period is expected to be dry. There is some signal of TSRA building swd into the CWA on Sun with a strong LLJ pointed into the area. Believe any precip will remain north of the area. Temps Fri will be slightly warmer than today, at least over the nrn two-thirds of the CWA. With strong WAA over the area, temps will rise quickly over the weekend. Going forecast may still be too cool. However, have not trended warmer yet as mdls are suggesting not mixing to 850mb. Will hold off another cycle before making too many changes. Regardless, going forecast is warmer than climo and adjustments would only a few degrees. (Monday through Thursday) Unseasonably warm temps are still expected on Mon into Tues. Temps Mon for the entire area and Tues for the sern half may not be warm enuf. Much of the area may be pushing records on Mon. However, as mentioned above, some question remains regarding how deep mixing will be and have kept temps in mid 80s for now. GFS/ECMWF are in fairly good agreement now with the cdfnt along the nwrn edge of the CWA at 12z Tues. This shud keep temps down for nwrn half of the CWA for Tues. With a rather strong cap in place, little if any precip is expected with this fnt. Cooler, more seasonable, temps are expected behind the fnt thru the end of the week. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 High pressure will move off to the east causing winds to shift out of the southeast. Some MVFR ceilings will move into KCOU late on Friday morning. Some light showers will move across southeast Missouri, but are not expected to affect any of the the terminals. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Britt && .CLIMATE... Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 Unseasonably warm conditions are expected to persist through the weekend and into early next week and may approach record territory. The following lists record high temperatures and record high minimum temperatures for St. Louis, Columbia and Quincy from Sunday to Tuesday. St. LouisColumbiaQuincy SundayHigh:89/195086/195088/1950 10/16 High Low:65/196566/196867/1968 MondayHigh:88/195089/189488/1950 10/17High Low:66/199864/196566/1935 Tuesday High:87/195386/195387/1924 10/18High Low:68/198564/197166/1938 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 48 70 59 81 / 5 5 0 5 Quincy 41 68 58 79 / 0 0 5 5 Columbia 46 68 58 81 / 10 10 5 5 Jefferson City 47 70 58 82 / 10 10 5 5 Salem 44 70 57 78 / 0 5 5 5 Farmington 46 67 57 78 / 10 10 5 5 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
938 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Cloud cover looks to be on the increase tonight ahead of another shortwave which will bring precip chances to the area tomorrow. Models are pretty aggressive with bringing in fog overnight, and with dewpoints about 10 degrees higher than this time last night, and dewpoint depressions already between 2 and 5 degrees, went ahead and put in mention of fog across the area tonight. Cloud cover may limit fog a bit, but the added moisture and light winds look to at least have some areas develop fog. Otherwise, just did some minor tweaks to the grids to match current obs trends. Rest of the forecast looks good. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR cigs will continue at BNA/CSV this evening before MVFR cigs/vis develop at all airports overnight ahead of next upper shortwave. Cigs/vis to improve back to VFR Friday morning. Used HRRR model for precip timing with VCSH at CKV/BNA after 12-13Z and CSV after 17Z. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Barnwell AVIATION........Shamburger
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
457 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over Pennsylvania will drift slowly southeast over the next several days, becoming centered near Bermuda by next week. A cold front is likely to work into the region around Wednesday, then stall over the area through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VIIRS low cloud product showing extensive valley fog across the Alleghenies. Latest HRRR and downscaled NAM suggest the fog will burn off by around 14Z. High pressure and associated low PWAT air mass over Pa will supply the area with abundant sunshine and a light N/NE breeze today. Latest guidance and satellite imagery suggest shortwave lifting out of the Mississippi Valley will spread some thin cirrus across the southern counties, where mostly sunny wording should suffice. Max temps may be just a bit below average, but the sun and light wind should make it feel milder. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... The pattern continues to look favorable for patchy frost late tonight into early Saturday morning in east-central PA (including the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley) where the growing season remains active. Have slightly undercut Superblend min temp guidance based on conditions ideal for radiational cooling, but still not certain frost will be widespread enough to warrant a frost advisory. Return southerly flow of milder air develops Saturday, as surface high drifts off the Mid Atlantic coast. Abundant sunshine should push temps into the low to mid 60s over most of Central Pa, with the warmest readings relative to normal over Western Pa based on GEFS 925MB temp anomalies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will slowly sink south and east into early next week. This should allow lead shortwave energy ejecting from the Western U.S. trough to push a weakening frontal system from the Great Lakes into the Northeast by early Monday. Blended model consensus continues to support a >50 percent of rain over northwest PA Sunday night with light QPF amounts <0.25 inches. There are two main weather themes emerging in the latest model and ensemble data for next week: 1) A period of mainly dry and unseasonably warm temperatures into midweek (Mon-Wed) with max/min temp departures +10 to +20 degrees above normal for mid-October. 2) Following the warm spell, a trend toward a cooler and wet weather from the second half of next week into the weekend, as a deepening upper level trof over the Miss Valley interacts with a stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity of Pa. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will build back into the region overnight and Friday, keeping fair weather in place into Saturday night. Could be scattered fog restrictions over portions of the west (KBFD-KJST) around sunrise, but VFR conditions will prevail otherwise for next 48 hrs. Next frontal system will bring a chance of showers later Sunday into Monday (mainly to the north). This could be preceded by a period of cig restrictions late Sat night into Sunday. Outlook... Fri...Sct AM fog possible, mainly west. Sat...No sig wx expected. Sun...PM showers cig reductions possible north. Mon...Showers cig reductions possible, mainly north. Tue...Improving conditions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl AVIATION...RXR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
136 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 ...updated short and long... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 136 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 This morning: Short term guidance like the ARW, HRRR and SREF probabilities shows the concern for dense fog this morning. Temperature/dewpoint depressions are the lowest near Garden City. This is the area that the models are showing fog formation this morning. This area could expand towards Dodge City, but confidence is lower. As a result of the rather consistent signal, have issued a dense fog advisory west of Dodge City. Will continue to monitor the situation and adjust as necessary. Today/Tonight: Today will be much warmer than compared to yesterday. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s out west to mid 70s out east. This is a result of a stronger High Plains lee trough with warm air advection. 850-hPa temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 20s west to upper teens east. RHs do not look low enough for critical fire weather conditions for today. Lows tonight will be warmer too with the southerly winds continuing - 50s to 60s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 136 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 The weekend is shaping up to be rather hot. Highs during the weekend could end up around 20 degrees above normal. There will be increasing fire weather concerns as we go through the weekend and into Monday. Monday looks to be of the most concern as strong downsloping, hot temperatures, and strong winds will develop ahead of an approaching front. Have ramped up the wording the FWF as a result. Mid 90s could be realized for highs on Monday. Beyond that, temps will trend down post-frontal on Tuesday. The forecast looks to remain dry for the rest of the pd. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 A few items of concern for the 06Z TAF issuance. Short term models are still indicating dense fog just west of KDDC by morning. KGCK has the highest probability of seeing LIFR conditions. IFR conditions likely for KDDC, although LIFR could occur as well. The worst flight conditions should remain west of KHYS with MVFR for now in the TAF. Improvement to VFR is expected across the terminals by late morning. Otherwise, winds will be SE/S 10-20 kt. LLWS will be possible through the overnight towards the end of the TAF pd. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 46 80 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 44 83 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 47 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 46 85 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 43 77 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 P28 49 76 62 87 / 10 0 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ043-044- 062-063-075>077-085>087. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Sugden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
429 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016 .SHORT TERM... Axis of a positive tilt trough had cleared all but our far southeast counties before daybreak. Brunt of scattered to numerous storms ahead of this trough have been poised along and just north of I-20 for much of the pre-dawn hours. Trend is for this activity to remain outside of our CWA, but will keep an isolated shower mention in our low Rolling Plains until the trough exits by mid/late morning. Despite subsidence and drying aloft behind the trough axis, a widespread stratus shield will hold strong for most of the morning. The last AMDAR sounding from Lubbock late Thu evening sampled this stratus at just over 4000 feet thick. RAP soundings prog slow but steady top-down erosion of this stratus thanks to a deepening subsidence inversion. However, moist SSW winds below this inversion will serve to counter this drying and consequently delay sunshine to the eastern half of the CWA until after noon. As such, max temps were nudged 2-4 degrees lower particularly in areas that saw heavy rain yesterday. Height rises and breezy SW winds ahead of lee troughing in NM don`t look to offer much additional warming thanks to moist boundary layer winds ahead of the trough. Regarding fog, regional observations have been lackluster thus far as visibilities are holding over 1 mile, except west of the stratus layer in parts of NM. Presence of drizzle at times at LBB and on some webcams is not helping fog development, so have trended fog coverage back to patchy over all but our western zones which is supported by recent runs of the NAM, RAP and HRRR. Repeat of fog tonight does not look to be in the cards as breezy gradient winds thwart radiational cooling. .LONG TERM... We will enter a period of relatively quiet weather starting this weekend and lasting through much of next week. Temperatures will rapidly warm through the weekend as shortwave ridging develops aloft and a persistent lee surface trough brings southwest to westerly surface winds in the afternoon. Expect to see highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the weekend and start of the work week next week. By Monday the ridge starts to flatten and flow aloft becomes more zonal as a series of shortwaves embedded in a broad trough move across the northern half of the U.S. The initial wave on Monday will send a cold front into the area on Tuesday which will mark the start of a cool down that will last through the end of next week. Cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the Central Plains which will keep persistent and cool easterly upslope flow in place Wednesday into Thursday. Another stronger front will arrive as well in the middle to latter part of the week with the models not in good consensus on when the front will arrive. Regardless...temperatures will continue a downward trend through the end of the forecast until we get 3-5 degrees below normal across the forecast area by the end of next week. Lastly, forecast will remain dry as little in the way of elevated moisture levels both at the surface or aloft will be in place. Jordan && .LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 93/14
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
235 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... Cloudy, rain-free conditions at forecast time this morning. However, there has been a change in airmass over the last 24 hours. Dew points have increased 8 to 10 degrees since this time last night, so there is a little more moisture in the air. This increase in moisture is going to facilitate increased rain chances today and tonight. Problem is, not everyone will see rain and those who do are likely going to see less than one half of an inch. The focus area for rain today is likely going to remain along and west of I-65. Those east of I-65 are likely going to see less than a tenth, if any at all. Both instances are unfortunate because we could use the rain. A lingering light shower could persist into the morning hours on Saturday as the upper level low is a little slow to move out of the region, but by Saturday afternoon, all of the mid-state should be rain-free. Starting Sunday, an upper level ridge will begin to creep into the southeast U.S. This ridge will keep us dry through Tuesday and it will bring with it a last ditch effort of summer-like temperatures in Middle Tennessee. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 80s -- a solid 12 to 15 degrees above normal. It looks like rains will finally return to the mid-state late Wednesday and Thursday as our pattern begins to change. Both long- range models are indicating the development of a large scale trough/closed low over the Mississippi Valley by the start of next weekend. The position of said upper low is much different between the GFS and the Euro, but they are both showing the feature. For now, will carry solid chance PoPs Thursday through the end of the forecast as this feature could linger into next weekend. Temperatures will also respond, coming back down towards (if not cooler than) normals for this time of the year. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. Cigs/vis at all airports will continue to deteriorate overnight as upper shortwave trough approaches. Cigs/vis to improve back to MVFR then VFR Friday morning with timing of VCSH at BNA and -SHRA at CKV based on latest HRRR model runs. Winds will shift to easterly Friday morning then southerly/southwesterly at all airports by afternoon but remain light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 77 61 81 62 84 / 40 40 20 10 10 Clarksville 73 59 80 61 84 / 40 40 20 10 10 Crossville 75 57 74 56 77 / 20 30 20 10 0 Columbia 76 60 81 60 83 / 40 40 20 10 0 Lawrenceburg 77 60 80 60 83 / 30 40 20 10 0 Waverly 72 59 79 62 83 / 50 50 10 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Unger AVIATION........Barnwell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1042 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1041 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Main change this update was increased wind speeds and lowered expected afternoon relative humidity - especially west half of the state. Latest iterations of the high res HRRR indicates RH values around 16-18% in the far southwest and in the low 20s% just east of the Missouri River in the south central. Thinking high temperatures in the ongoing forecast are fine - because of the mid-high level cloudiness expected today keeping the solar insolation from really heating things up at the surface layer. UPDATE Issued at 911 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Once again blended hourly weather elements to latest observations. Overall the inherited forecast remains on track for the mid morning product issuance. Warm day today with partly sunny/cloudy conditions. UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Little change for today other than to blend to observed trends through 11 UTC as the forecast remains well on track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 A warm mid October day today highlights the short term forecast. 850 mb temperatures reaching their 97.5 to 99th percentiles are forecast across western and central North Dakota today by the 00 UTC NAEFS ensemble mean. A resultant warm mid October day is expected with highs around 70 across the north and James River Valley, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s possible along and west of the Missouri River. This is above the 00 UTC global and high resolution consensus given the anomalous warm air mass in the warm sector of surface low pressure from the western Dakotas into Saskatchewan. Forecast highs across the southwest and south central could still be a bit too low. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Continued above normal temperatures into Monday highlight the extended forecast. The 00 UTC global suite favors southwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains Saturday through Monday and resulting continued above normal temperatures with highs generally in the 60s. Thereafter, an upper level trough is forecast to deepen Tuesday into mid next week favoring a possible cool down back to near to slightly below normal temperatures. In regards to precipitation, chances for rain showers are expected Sunday into Monday with shortwaves embedded in southwest flow aloft. However, the precipitation signal has weakened over the past 24 hours of model iterations. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North Dakota for the 12 UTC TAF cycle. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JV AVIATION...AYD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 136 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 This morning: Short term guidance like the ARW, HRRR and SREF probabilities shows the concern for dense fog this morning. Temperature/dewpoint depressions are the lowest near Garden City. This is the area that the models are showing fog formation this morning. This area could expand towards Dodge City, but confidence is lower. As a result of the rather consistent signal, have issued a dense fog advisory west of Dodge City. Will continue to monitor the situation and adjust as necessary. Today/Tonight: Today will be much warmer than compared to yesterday. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s out west to mid 70s out east. This is a result of a stronger High Plains lee trough with warm air advection. 850-hPa temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 20s west to upper teens east. RHs do not look low enough for critical fire weather conditions for today. Lows tonight will be warmer too with the southerly winds continuing - 50s to 60s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 136 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 The weekend is shaping up to be rather hot. Highs during the weekend could end up around 20 degrees above normal. There will be increasing fire weather concerns as we go through the weekend and into Monday. Monday looks to be of the most concern as strong downsloping, hot temperatures, and strong winds will develop ahead of an approaching front. Have ramped up the wording the FWF as a result. Mid 90s could be realized for highs on Monday. Beyond that, temps will trend down post-frontal on Tuesday. The forecast looks to remain dry for the rest of the pd. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 IFR to VLIFR cigs and vsbys will persist at the terminals through the early morning hours before increasing sunshine and increasing southerly winds mix the fog and stratus out. VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the period although there is some potential for at least MVFR vsbys after 06z tonight. LLWS will become an issue tonight as well as a 50 knot low level develops. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 80 60 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 83 53 89 50 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 88 54 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 85 57 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 77 59 87 54 / 0 0 0 10 P28 76 62 87 61 / 0 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030- 043>045-062>064-075>078-085>088. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
949 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 949 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Forecast is on track and no updates planned for today/tonight. Breezy and warmer will be the main highlights. Will need to further analyze the potential for very light and isolated showers at some point tonight near the International border with guidance indicating mid-level (700mb) frontogenesis...although saturation is the main negative. Incoming HRRR and RAP guidance starting to indicate QPF...will watch the trends as newer runs come in. At any rate...any showers will be very low impact. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Main challenge today will be temperatures. Mid level zonal flow to continue with main energy remaining north of the border. Respectable warm advection and increased surface mixing will allow temperatures to recover well above average. Only hindrance will be mid/upper level cloud cover to filter solar. A weak cold front will cross the region overnight. Should be a dry fropa with moisture limited to above 650mb. Initially column will be mild with thermal ridge axis over the fa. Even with cold advection mainly after midnight temperatures should remain mild overnight. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Cold advection will continue Saturday as shortwave and associated surface low tracks across the southern canadian prairie provinces. However, with mild start...potential solar and surface westerly flow temperatures should still recover above average. Minimum temperatures Saturday night will remain above average as well. A stronger wave will impact the region Sunday. GFS continues to show a relatively dry column in warm advection zone ahead of wave and associated surface boundary however this solution looks to be the odd model out so will maintain some low end pops. Temperatures will hinge on cloud cover however column will remain warm so above temperatures will continue. Rain chances continue Sunday night with passage of surface boundary. Precipitable H2o values reach an inch across the far south and with sufficient instability and cape thunder chances seem reasonable. Clouds and warm column will keep minimums well above average. Monday through Friday Long wave trough remains over the Gulf of AK through the period but weakens with time. A flat long wave ridge will be over the eastern US. Low amplitude ridge builds over western North America through the period. Also by the end of the period a low amplitude trough develops over eastern North America. The GFS was a slower and farther south solution than the ECMWF by the end of the period. The GFS was trending faster and farther north while the ECMWF was trending farther south and slower from the last couple model runs. Will blend the models. Little change to high temperatures for Tue and Wed. High temperatures increase a degree or two for Thu from yesterdays run. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 VFR conditions through the period. S-SE winds will increase to the 15-25kt range late morning and afternoon mainly from valley east diminishing at sunset. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...Voelker LONG TERM...Hoppes/Voelker AVIATION...Voelker
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
632 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Fog/Reflectivity satellite and obs are showing 500-1000 ft stratus surging N into the fcst area. The 09Z HRRR has a good handle on this and used it to better portray invading clouds this morning (amount and location). Present indications are that clearing will occur this afternoon. Some work on temp curves may be required by the day shift (i.e. - we may have hourly fcst temps warming too quickly where skies become OVC this morning). && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Zonal to southwest flow aloft will lead to warmer temperatures today, while an increase in moisture will bring the potential for fog and drizzle heading into tonight. For the predawn and early morning hours, an area of stratus across southern and eastern Kansas is forecast to advect northeast along our southeast cwa and short term models suggest the potential for fog to develop between the stratus and a surface trough across western Nebraska and Kansas and will monitor observations and trends of this. The low clouds mix out and shift east of our area for the day time hours and southerly winds will be on the increase as the surface gradient tightens. Model forecast soundings indicate winds at the top of the mixed layer around 25kts and expect afternoon wind gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range. The airmass warms roughly 10C from yesterday to today and temperatures will rise above normal into the 70s for highs. The forecast turns more interesting tonight as stratus develops and works west from eastern Nebraska and Kansas into our area, ahead of the surface trough in western Neb/KS. With the increase in low level moisture and low clouds, expect fog to develop tonight but there remains uncertainty on how low visibilities will be due to steady low level winds. In addition, boundary layer mixing may also promote drizzle in the stratus area and in the end have went with a combination of fog/drizzle. As the surface trough works east into our western counties the low clouds will erode along our western zones, but have kept in fog potential on the edge of the stratus where winds will be lighter along the surface trough axis. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Aloft: The next svrl days WSW flow will prevail. Shortwave trofs will avoid the fcst area until Wed...with its passage introducing NW flow Thu. The low amplitude character of the flow will result in fast- moving systems with little or no time to entrain any decent moisture. So rain chances are very very slim. Surface: A dry cool front will pass thru most of the fcst area Sat. Its tail end will stall over KS Sat night and then dissipate Sun. A new warm sector will evolve over the region Sun night into Mon as the next low making its way thru the Wrn USA emerges into the Nrn Plains. As this low tracks across the Dakota`s...the trailing cool front will move thru here Mon eve. Another dry FROPA. The trend the past 3 days is for this FROPA to be sooner. High pres moves overhead Tue-Wed and then drops into the Srn Plains Thu. Not much to add as far as sensible wx details. No high-impact wx is expected. Temps will be way above normal Sat-Mon...then return closer to normal. The main complication Sat-Sun will be stratus and what impact it has on temps. Fcst initialization had unrealistic splotchy pops Wed afternoon and night. Painted slight chance pops across all Neb counties for a brief shwr in a few spots. Left thunder out for now as it should only be a rumble or two...but it may need to be added. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Saturday) Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Significant Wx: IFR stratus moves in from the S 12Z-1330Z. More IFR stratus/fog likely along with LLWS tonight. Today: Satellite imagery shows IFR stratus surging N from KS and it should overtake EAR/GRI in the next 1-2 hrs. Gradual improvement to VFR. However...there is potential for an extensive period of BKN MVFR stratocu this afternoon. For now indicated SCT030...but it could be BKN025. S winds increase and gust 19-24 kts this afternoon. Confidence: Medium Tonight: Probably VFR to start with increasing cirrostratus CIGs around 20K ft. LLWS develops by 02Z. Model consensus is that IFR stratus and fog develop after 08Z with decaying CIGs/VSBYs. S winds 12-17 kts with occasional gusts up to 25 kts possible at times. Confidence: Medium due to uncertainty in timing the arrival of stratus and eventual cloud heights. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Kelley SHORT TERM...Fay LONG TERM...Kelley AVIATION...Kelley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1031 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Stratus at or below 1,000ft has been streaming N across SC KS & far SE KS during the night. The sly lower-deck warm/moist advection has enabled temps to stabilize across Srn KS where lower-mid 50s reside at 3 AM. A small area of showers w/ a few thunderstorms continues to move E from extreme SE KS to extreme SW MO as a weak mid-level trof moves E toward Ern OK. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1028 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Already sent out an update to add some patchy drizzle for most of Southern Ks for the morning hours, as low clouds linger at least till noon. Already seeing some breaks on the wrn edge of the cloud cover across wrn KS at this time, with also some scouring in the low clouds noted across nrn OK, as better mixing from the south pushes into srn KS. Latest RAP shows low clouds/drizzle scouring out to the NE for the afternoon hours as this mixing pushes north, and think this trend looks good. So think most of the drizzle/low clouds will end for the afternoon hours. Will send out more updates as the cloud deck shifts east-northeast by around noontime. Ketcham && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 This Weekend: Highlight: Temperatures to soar to near record levels. Today: With the ewd-moving mid-level shortwave crossing the OK/AR border by around daybreak, the showers/thunderstorms occurring across SE KS will vacate these areas by forecast issuance. Until the short- wave vacates the premises will be watching for fog in extreme SE KS as visibilities across NE OK are 1/2 to 1 mile in many areas. Once this initial shortwave vacates the area skies will clear in a NW-SE manner with S winds increasing to 15-20 mph in most areas. Sat-Sun: Garnering the greatest attention by far is the rapid warmup that`ll occur as a result of a very slow, ewd-moving lwr-deck trof that`ll venture into the Central Plains. Combined with strong, massive high pressure covering the Sern U.S. the deep SW flow will produce high temperatures ~20F above normal across the neighborhood. Records may be in reach on Sun. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Highlight: Record warmth likely on Mon. Mon: With the massive high pressure continuing to cover the Sern U.S. the upstream, strongly sheared, trof will remain situated from Ern Nebraska to SE CO. This would keep KICT Country in an excellent SW lower-deck regime to produce another day of summerlike weather. Wl need to watch for record-setting highs. Tue-Thu: The potential record-setting heat will end on Tue. A stronger mid to upper-deck shortwave is scheduled to eject rapidly e across the nrn & Central Plains late Mon Night & Tue. The sharp, positively tilted wave, though shearing, will push a cold front SE across KS Mon Night with the front likely exiting SE KS Tue Morning. Moisture is lacking. As such no more than a SW-N windshift & obviously the cooling trend would signal the front`s arrival. The remainder of the work-week should be nice as weak high pressure follows in its wake. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Overcast skies and patchy fog is creating MVFR and IFR conditions across the region. These conditions will lift by mid morning giving way to VFR conditions. CNU will likely be the last terminal to come up to VFR conditions. The winds will pick up with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon and well. MVFR conditions will come back overnight with some clouds but winds are expected to be high enough to keep fog from forming. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 71 63 83 64 / 10 10 0 0 Hutchinson 72 62 84 62 / 10 0 0 0 Newton 70 63 82 64 / 10 10 0 0 ElDorado 70 63 82 65 / 10 10 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 72 64 84 66 / 10 10 0 0 Russell 75 60 85 57 / 10 0 0 10 Great Bend 74 61 86 58 / 10 0 0 10 Salina 74 62 85 61 / 10 0 10 0 McPherson 72 62 83 62 / 10 0 0 0 Coffeyville 72 64 84 67 / 10 10 0 0 Chanute 69 63 82 66 / 10 10 10 0 Iola 69 63 82 65 / 10 10 10 0 Parsons-KPPF 71 64 83 66 / 20 10 0 0 && .ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...BDK SYNOPSIS...EPS SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...ELM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
637 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016 .AVIATION... Latest indications are that widespread LIFR CIGs and light fog will be slower to improve at LBB, PVW and CDS than earlier thought. Data from an aircraft descending into LBB at 536am sampled stratus still around 4000 feet thick (or no change since last evening). This gives credence to high-res models delaying VFR until early or mid afternoon at LBB and PVW, and likely late afternoon at CDS. Terminals should rise above airport minimums toward noon. Risk of low CIGs redeveloping tonight is gaining momentum among recent models, but enough spread and uncertainty still remain to keep this mention out for now. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016/ SHORT TERM... Axis of a positive tilt trough had cleared all but our far southeast counties before daybreak. Brunt of scattered to numerous storms ahead of this trough have been poised along and just north of I-20 for much of the pre-dawn hours. Trend is for this activity to remain outside of our CWA, but will keep an isolated shower mention in our low Rolling Plains until the trough exits by mid/late morning. Despite subsidence and drying aloft behind the trough axis, a widespread stratus shield will hold strong for most of the morning. The last AMDAR sounding from Lubbock late Thu evening sampled this stratus at just over 4000 feet thick. RAP soundings prog slow but steady top-down erosion of this stratus thanks to a deepening subsidence inversion. However, moist SSW winds below this inversion will serve to counter this drying and consequently delay sunshine to the eastern half of the CWA until after noon. As such, max temps were nudged 2-4 degrees lower particularly in areas that saw heavy rain yesterday. Height rises and breezy SW winds ahead of lee troughing in NM don`t look to offer much additional warming thanks to moist boundary layer winds ahead of the trough. Regarding fog, regional observations have been lackluster thus far as visibilities are holding over 1 mile, except west of the stratus layer in parts of NM. Presence of drizzle at times at LBB and on some webcams is not helping fog development, so have trended fog coverage back to patchy over all but our western zones which is supported by recent runs of the NAM, RAP and HRRR. Repeat of fog tonight does not look to be in the cards as breezy gradient winds thwart radiational cooling. LONG TERM... We will enter a period of relatively quiet weather starting this weekend and lasting through much of next week. Temperatures will rapidly warm through the weekend as shortwave ridging develops aloft and a persistent lee surface trough brings southwest to westerly surface winds in the afternoon. Expect to see highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the weekend and start of the work week next week. By Monday the ridge starts to flatten and flow aloft becomes more zonal as a series of shortwaves embedded in a broad trough move across the northern half of the U.S. The initial wave on Monday will send a cold front into the area on Tuesday which will mark the start of a cool down that will last through the end of next week. Cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the Central Plains which will keep persistent and cool easterly upslope flow in place Wednesday into Thursday. Another stronger front will arrive as well in the middle to latter part of the week with the models not in good consensus on when the front will arrive. Regardless...temperatures will continue a downward trend through the end of the forecast until we get 3-5 degrees below normal across the forecast area by the end of next week. Lastly, forecast will remain dry as little in the way of elevated moisture levels both at the surface or aloft will be in place. Jordan && .LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 93
Climate section of the Area Forecast Discussion for a sample of the
current record highs around the area for Monday. Not surprisingly,
to transport temperatures that warm into the area this time of year, winds are apt to be quite breezy at times into midweek. As far as precipitation chances are concerned through the period, no significant rainfall threat is evident at this time. A weak frontal boundary pushing into the area from the northwest Saturday night into early Sunday will likely have a few showers/storms associated with it. However, the front will be arriving at a less favorable time day for convection, and moisture along the boundary will be lacking. The front should quickly shift back north of the area later Sunday as short wave ridging builds in aloft. Another front will push into the area later Tuesday or Tuesday night, but this will also be moisture starved and it is not likely to get very active until after it passes south/east of the area. The model disposition of this front once it clears the area is problematic. There is considerable spread, both inter and intra- model, with respect to the departure of the front and upper-level flow in its wake. Most guidance suggests a wave developing along the front, keeping a risk of rainfall on the cool side of the front into Wednesday. Then, some of the guidance clears the front well east of the area behind the secondary wave and keeps the rest of the week dry. However, some guidance, most notably the operational GFS, develops an upper-level low in the Plains, keeping the front nearby and active for the rest of the week. Given the significant model spread, it is prudent to maintain low PoPs for the second half of the week until a better consensus is reached. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High pressure will remain in control of the weather across central Illinois through the evening, providing mostly clear skies. As the high shifts further away, an increasingly southerly flow will bring lower clouds currently poised upstream across Missouri/western Kentucky northward into the area overnight. Main aviation forecast concerns will be timing of lower clouds and whether they will be in the MVFR or IFR category. NAM forecast soundings and HRRR data both suggest ceilings will drop to IFR as the low-level moisture returns northward. This seems reasonable given widespread surface obs showing IFR ceilings across Missouri, Arkansas, and western Kentucky earlier this morning. Based on this, have introduced IFR ceilings at all terminals between 09z and 11z. With the pressure gradient tightening between the departing high and an approaching cold front, gusty southwesterly winds will develop Saturday morning that will eventually scour out the low clouds. Have gone slightly more pessimistic than models would suggest and have only increased ceilings to MVFR by mid to late morning. Think ceilings will rise further and scatter out by Saturday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 High temperatures will climb to near record levels for Monday. Here is a sample of current record highs around the area for Monday, October 17: Peoria - 86, set in 1950 Springfield - 86, set in 1964 Lincoln - 87, set in 1935 Urbana - 87, set in 1950 Normal - 86, set in 1938 Mattoon - 85, set in 1950 Lawrenceville - 85, set in 1963 && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Bak AVIATION...Barnes CLIMATE...Bak
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 249 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016 ...Critical Fire Weather Conditions increase for San Luis Valley Saturday... Been a slow onset to winds in the San Luis Valley today just as high res models suggested. Big Horn raws has been gusting to around 20-28 mph this afternoon and HRRR and local WRF have this axis of winds extending eastward across southern portions of the valley through early evening. Unfortunately this location is rather sparse in surface observations. Given the upper level gradient is still tightening through late afternoon...there is still a 3 hour window of Red Flag criteria to be met across the southern 2/3rds and western fringe of the San Luis Valley before 01z...so will let the Red Flag Warning ride out to expiration. Elsewhere...Walsenburg and the gap flow region south of Colorado City has also been occasionally hitting Red Flag criteria this afternoon...as well as spotty areas along/west of I-25...but most of these areas have been getting only brief hits and conditions still aren`t widespread enough to hoist a Red Flag Warning. Tonight...expect winds to diminish during the evening as atmosphere decouples. I-25 corridor and lower eastern slopes should stay rather warm tonight given some enhanced westerly drainage flows. This will lead to poor humidity recoveries for these areas. More of the same is expected for Saturday...though the upper level gradient looks a little tighter from the start of the day. Winds should mix down across the lower elevations a little sooner and San Luis Valley appears to have a better shot of hitting Red Flag criteria. So will hoist a Red Flag warning for tomorrow. Winds look lighter across the plains on Saturday though humidity levels will still remain low. Therefore plains should stay below criteria. Still getting some pockets of critical conditions along/west of the I-25 corridor...but it isn`t persistent enough or widespread enough to justify a Red Flag warning at this point. -KT .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 249 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Primary longer term meteorological concerns include temperatures, critical fire weather concerns/gusty winds at times into Monday evening as well as precipitation potential by later next week. Recent longer range PV analysis, forecast model soundings and computer simulations indicate that basically dry southwesterly to zonal upper flow will prevail over the forecast district from Saturday night into at least Monday night with models then beginning to diverge into later next week with the 12Z/14th ECMWF keeping the forecast district relatively dry into next Friday as an upper ridge develops over west-central Arizona by 00Z Saturday. On the other side of the equation...the 12Z/14th GFS attempts to develop an closed upper low over the 4-Corners region by 06Z Thursday...before slowly shifting this closed upper low into east-central New Mexico by 06Z Saturday...which would be a much wetter/actove solution(when compared to recent ECMWF) for at least southern Colorado by late week. For sensible weather and based on model results during the past several weeks...at this time am leaning towards the more conservative ECMWF solution and will depict somewhat increasing pops by later next week in combination with cooler temperatures. As always...WFO Pueblo will monitor latest trends closely. In addition...have hoisted a Fire Weather Watch for roughly the eastern 2/3rds of the forecast district from late Sunday morning into Sunday evening due to continued very warm temperatures... projected low minimum relative humidity values and gusty winds. Also...fire weather highlights will most likely be needed again over similar locations from later Monday morning into Monday evening. Gusty winds at times are also expected over many locations from Saturday night into Monday evening. Finally, maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to run above mid-October climatological averages from Saturday evening into Monday night with cooler to colder conditions developing over the forecast district from Tuesday into late next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 249 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016 VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with passing high cloudiness at times. Increasing west to southwest flow aloft will keep windy conditions across the higher peaks at night...which will spread down into the lower elevations along/west of I-25 during the afternoon. KALS will see a window of southwest winds 15-25 kts after 19z Saturday. KPUB and KCOS will also see southwest winds in the afternoon around 10-15 kts in the afternoon. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for COZ221-222-224>237. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224. Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ224. && $$