Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/09/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1026 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue moving across the region overnight.
This will be accompanied by a few passing showers or sprinkles. A
cooler and more seasonable air mass will then build in for Sunday
and Columbus Day, with dry weather returning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1020 PM EDT, isolated/scattered sprinkles remain across the
region, with more limited coverage across the mid Hudson Valley
and NW CT. The earlier narrow band of moderate showers approaching
the SE corner of Litchfield CO CT has shifted to the south and
east.
The initial wind shift boundary has passed S/E of KALB, stretching
from SW VT into the NE Catskills. This appears to be coincident
with the cold front around H925 based on latest H925 RAP13 and
HRRR analyses. The lower dewpoints/temperatures are still lagging
quite a bit behind this wind shift, across central NYS, where
dewpoints are dropping into the mid 40s to lower 50s, and even
lower further west where deeper cold advection is occurring.
The coverage of showers/sprinkles overnight should remain only
isolated to scattered, given most of the deeper moisture remaining
trapped from SE New England into southern NJ. Still expect a
slight increase in overall coverage of light showers/sprinkles
after midnight across SE areas, with the approach of the front and
perhaps bit of enhanced mid level frontogenesis and moisture as
the shortwave over the Great Lakes gradually approaches from the
west.
Some partial clearing seen in western NY but the clearing line is
very slow to move east. Upper ridging north of the tropical system
may be slowing the progress of northern stream upper energy in
Canada and the progress of the clouds and cold front.
Most areas should be cloudy to mostly cloudy through the night and
once the deeper cold advection begins to spread east later
tonight, north to northwest winds will pick up. So, low
temperatures will depend on how much deeper cold advection
spreads east late tonight toward daybreak. Lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s, but lower to mid 40s northern and western areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any lingering isolated showers in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT
should end Sunday morning and clearing will spread east through
the day. North to northwest winds and deep cold advection will
limit high temperatures in the afternoon. Highs Sunday in the
upper 50s to lower 60s but cooler in mountains.
High pressure gradually builds into the region from Canada and the
Great Lakes through Monday, then begins to build east Monday night
and Tuesday. Some light steady winds Sunday night could prevent
temperatures from cooling as much as they could but some areas
where the growing season has not quite ended could see frost or a
freeze right near daybreak Monday. Lows in the mid to upper 30s
but colder in northern areas.
High pressure overhead Monday with light winds but lots of sun.
Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and cooler in mountains. Calm
winds and a clear sky Monday night may result in widespread
frosts and freezes, depending on how quickly high pressure builds
east. If boundary layer temperatures warm steadily through the
night and some light southerly winds begin toward daybreak, maybe
less widespread frosts and freezes. We have time to watch this.
Lows potentially around freezing in many areas to mid 30s southern
areas and mid to upper 20s colder areas.
High pressure slowly builds east Tuesday with warm advection
slowly increasing. Still, light winds and lots of sun. Highs
Tuesday in the lower to mid 60s but around 60 in the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended forecast features predominately dry weather with a cold
frontal passage bringing very little precipitation on Thursday.
Temperatures will average out to near seasonable.
A strong ridge of high pressure down the Appalachians begins the
period, resulting in dry conditions and low relative humidities.
This feature will weaken beginning Wednesday as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. The front will pass through on our
forecast area on Thursday without much time for moisture to gather
ahead of it. Thus...rainfall amounts in the showers that pop up on
Thursday will be light...and targeted mainly to the northern and
western zones as the front weakens with high pressure broadening
quickly from the Great Lakes to the east coast. For the end of the
work week and the start of the weekend...conditions will be dry.
High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will range from the mid 50s
in the high peaks of the Adirondacks and Greens...to around 70
degrees down the mid-Hudson Valley. This will cool about 10 degrees
for Friday...and bounce back a few degrees for Saturday. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s range...in the 40s
Wednesday night...and then will fall back down to lows by Friday
night from the mid 30s to near 40 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front approaching from western/central NY will move across
the area this evening. Isolated to scattered showers or sprinkles will
accompany the cold front, with the best chances for some light
showers from KALB to KGFL. Showers expected to decrease in
coverage south and east of KALB. Cigs will gradually lower from
VFR to MVFR levels at times into the evening as the front
approaches. Clouds will be slow to erode late tonight into Sunday
morning, although cigs should gradually improve to VFR levels
between 12Z-15Z.
There is a small chance at KGFL that if mid level clouds break up
enough later this evening, that some patchy ground fog and IFR
conditions could develop, especially between 07Z-11Z/Sun. The
overall probability that this will occur is rather low, so will
not include any direct mention in TAFS at this time.
Winds will initially be southerly around 5-10 kt into the early
evening. Winds will then shift to the northwest to north behind
the cold front overnight at 5-10 kt. On Sunday, expect mainly
north to northwest winds at 8-12 KT, with some gusts possibly
reaching 15-20 KT at times.
Outlook...
Sunday Night through Wednesday night: No Operational Impact. NO
SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move across the region this evening. This will
be accompanied by some periods of wet weather. A cooler and more
seasonable air mass will then build in for Sunday and Columbus
Day, with dry weather returning.
Nighttime RH values tonight and Sunday night will range between
70-100 percent, with scattered showers tonight. Relative Humidity
values will drop to 45 to 60 percent Sunday and 30 to 50 percent
Monday.
Winds will be light from the south to southwest at less than 15
mph ahead of the cold front this evening, shifting to north to
northwest at 15 mph or less behind the cold front tonight. North
to northwest winds Sunday around 15 mph will possibly gust over
20 mph Sunday afternoon. North to northwest winds at 15 mph or
less Sunday night will hold around 15 mph Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts with the cold front tonight are expected to be
mainly light, two tenths of an inch or less across most of the
area. The rainfall will not have any significant impact on rivers
and streams. Dry weather returns for Sunday into Columbus Day.
The latest US Drought Monitor continues to show drought conditions
across much of the region. Precipitation departures this calendar
year have been 3 to 12 inches below normal, with the greatest
departures across southeastern parts of the HSA. As a result,
streamflow and ground water levels have been running below normal.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 8 2016
.UPDATE...
No updates to forecast. Similar to last night showers are
weakening and HRRR is decreasing coverage and intensity. No need
to update current forecast. dlb
&&
.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...
...Tonight through Tuesday...
Big changes on the way for the end of the Columbus day weekend.
But first a very nice though breezy Sunday on tap as westerly
flow regime is entrenched over the area. Downslope winds will
bring dry and warm conditions with mostly sunny skies helping
temperatures well into the 70s. Foothills locations will get windy
tonight with gusts of 40 to 50 mph developing late tonight and
persisting through the day Sunday. Watch for gusty crosswinds on
I-90 around Livingston. A breezy night expected Sunday night
especially in the foothills, including the east slopes of the
Bighorn mountains. These winds will keep temperatures above
seasonal levels.
Changes begin Monday morning as a cold front drops into the area
from the north. This front is pulling in a good chunk of Canadian
air with it and as advertised would be the coldest air of the
season so far. Expect the front to push through early in the day
Monday with temperatures falling in the afternoon. Models are
coming together on precipitation chances, advertising a swath of a
quarter to half an inch of precipitation with the axis along a Nye
to Billings to Ekalaka line. Precipitation forcing is a
combination of upslope, low level isentropic ascent
(frontogenesis), and favorable jet dynamics associated with a jet
streak moving through early Tuesday morning.
Snow potential...Models suggesting a quick turnover to snow across
the area late Monday afternoon into Monday evening as 850mb
temperatures quickly fall below 0C. While its still a bit early to
pinpoint snow totals it looks like some light snow accumulations
on grassy surfaces will be possible across the lower elevations
with this system Monday night through the day Tuesday. Foothills
and Mountain locations look to see a bit heavier accumulations,
though the Sheridan foothills may come to the party a bit late in
the day on Tuesday to see much accumulation due to snow falling
during the daylight hours. Ground and road temperatures are in the
50s right now and should only drop into the 40s at most with this
system through Tuesday...so not anticipating much in the way of
travel impacts from this event outside of wet roads and poor
visibilities...although bridges and overpasses will get slick.
Tuesday afternoon highs will be in the 30s and with some clearing
Tuesday night...as the storm system exits...expect low to mid 20s
for lows. Depending on snow cover could be colder in some areas.
Those needing to complete winterization activities should take the
next couple of days to make those preparations. Chambers
.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...
Little in the way of changes for the extended forecast period
beginning Wednesday.
Upper level ridging will develop over the region Wednesday...but
cold air will remain in place on Wednesday following passage of
clipper type system earlier in the work week. Wednesday temps will
warm up significantly from Tuesday...but remain below
normal...struggling to reach 50 degrees in most areas. Conditions
will remain dry and temps will continue upward trend through
Friday...with mid to upper 60s expected for Friday...ahead of the
next Pacific disturbance.
Southwest flow returns to the region by Friday afternoon. Models
generally keep best chances for precip in the high terrain through
Saturday...but weak energy moving across the region should support
at least some isolated showers across the plains on Saturday. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight into Sunday.
A few showers will move through the Crazy mountains and Harlowton
area through 06Z creating mountain obscurations. SW winds will be
gusty near KLVM tonight into Sunday. Expect LLWS over KMLS
overnight. Arthur
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/075 048/056 029/036 026/048 037/060 046/066 048/064
00/U 13/W 76/S 20/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
LVM 048/074 047/058 030/036 026/054 036/061 044/067 045/062
10/N 16/W 65/S 10/U 00/B 11/N 32/W
HDN 044/078 045/058 031/037 024/045 033/057 041/067 046/066
00/U 02/W 77/S 20/U 00/U 00/B 12/W
MLS 043/077 046/056 032/038 025/047 033/060 041/068 047/065
10/U 02/W 54/O 10/U 00/U 00/B 12/W
4BQ 043/079 044/070 032/037 025/048 034/062 041/070 046/069
00/U 01/N 46/S 20/U 00/U 00/B 11/B
BHK 041/074 043/062 030/037 023/045 030/059 039/067 044/064
10/U 01/N 34/S 10/U 00/U 00/B 12/W
SHR 042/077 044/069 033/036 026/050 032/061 040/069 044/067
00/U 01/N 46/S 40/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1045 PM CDT SAT OCT 8 2016
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2016
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show cyclonic
flow over the western Great Lakes, between high pressure centered
over central Canada, and low pressure over James Bay. Weak
shortwave in the northwest flow is sending a band of mid-clouds from
North Dakota to western Wisconsin, and should move across central WI
into east-central WI later this afternoon. Additional enhanced cu
is passing over the Lake Superior region, just north of the U.P.
border. As high pressure builds into area late tonight, cloud cover
trends and temps are the main forecast concerns.
Tonight...Weak shortwave energy will be passing across the region
during the evening. Scattered to broken cloud cover resides
upstream, but models do show this moisture thinning out during the
evening hours, as the clouds move across central and east-central
WI. Will increase sky cover through midnight as a result. High
pressure will build into the area overnight, promoting good
radiational cooling conditions with the clearing skies outside of
Vilas county. Low temps should be falling into the upper 20s in the
cold spots over N-C WI, and through the 30s elsewhere. With
coordination from other offices, will issue frost/freeze headlines
for areas north and west of the Fox Valley.
Sunday...High pressure will be centered over the area. After a
frosty start, should see plenty of sunshine, with scattered clouds
over eastern WI developing with the heat of the day. Low level
temps will be moderating a few degrees, which put highs into the mid
and upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2016
Temperatures will begin to recover Monday on the back side of a
departing high pressure system with temperatures rising to 5 to
10 degrees above normal for this time of year. A mid level
shortwave and 850 mb theta-e advection will bring the chance for
showers to the area Monday night and Tuesday. Despite the forcing
there will be a low layer of dry air, therefore rain chances will
be fairly small during this period.
A cold front with better dynamics and meaningful moisture will
arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing a better chance for
showers to the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected behind
the front as temperatures fall to around 5 degrees below normal.
High pressure will bring clearing skies and light winds to the
western Great Lakes, bringing favorable conditions for another
round of frost development across central and north-central
Wisconsin Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Return flow on
the backside of the high will bring a return to near normal
temperatures on Friday, with temperatures a few degrees above
normal on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Oct 8 2016
A batch of mid level clouds will continue to slowly move across
the southern TAF sites tonight, with clearing skies anticipated
late tonight and into Sunday morning. Later on Sunday, some
diurnal cumulus clouds are expected over eastern Wisconsin.
Otherwise VFR conditions and good flying weather will prevail
through the TAF period with light winds.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>021-030-031-035>037-045-073-074.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1039 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The center of Hurricane Matthew east of Cape Fear this evening,
will track east northeast, reaching the vicinity of Cape Lookout
around midnight. Weakening Matthew will finally track offshore,
away from the NC Mainland, Sunday thru early next week. Continued
life threatening flash flooding and damaging winds and storm surge
flooding north of Cape Fear are expected this evening. In the wake
of Matthew, Strong, cool and dry Canadian high pressure will
infiltrate the region for much of the upcoming work week, bringing
the coolest air of this early Fall season.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 910 PM Saturday...The Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled.
Excessive rainfall is no longer expected with Matthew now on the
move, tracking finally but slowly away from the FA. POPs have been
adjusted and tweaked lower, PCPN intensity has been adjusted lower
to light to moderate and QPF has also been adjusted lower. Based
on the latest HRRR and RAP models, pcpn will end from SW to NE
overnight thru the pre-dawn Sun hours. There still could be patchy
light rain across the extreme NE portions of the FA at daybreak.
Other concern this evening is the gusty NNW-NW tropical storm and
even hurricane force wind gusts immediately in the wake of
Matthews path. The overnight winds have been adjusted to
accommodate these hier and temporary wind gusts...with an overall
diminishing trend after midnight for all areas.
Hourly temps/dewpoints have been tweaked due to latest obs and
trends via HRRR model.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...With Matthew pulling off to the east and
the coolest airmass of this Fall season building in, we should
have two days of crisp, breezy and dry weather with dewpoints
plunging into the 40s. Temperatures will gradually decrease
through the period as cooler air filters across the eastern
Carolinas and expect highs on Monday to only reach the upper 60s,
with low possibly dropping into the upper 40s well inland. The
period may actually start out with a few showers dropping south
across the area as Matthew moves off to the east, but expect dry
weather to otherwise dominate the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Benign, dry and seasonal weather will
persist through the Long Term as a cool NE flow persists with high
pressure dominating eastern CONUS. A re-enforcing cold front
arriving early on Friday will come through dry and may allow for a
further cool-down to keep us at seasonal temperature levels.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 00Z...Hurricane Matthew is SE of KILM at TAF time. High
confidence MVFR flight restrictions will improve to VFR and rain end
from W-E this evening, with KILM the last to improve around midnight
Z. Winds speeds will be strongest at the coastal terminals early
this evening. In general wind speeds will decrease as from W-E as
Matthew pulls away, but still remain 25-35 kt and gusty overnight.
VFR Sunday with NW-N winds 20-25 kt and gusty through the day.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 915 PM Saturday...Latest OMR, coastal obs and buoy reports
indicate winds and resulting seas are running hier in the wake of
Matthew then what originally was fcst to occur. Sustained tropical
storm force with hurricane force wind gusts are common across the
local waters especially north of Murrells Inlet. As a result, the
winds and significant seas have been adjusted initially higher.
Followed by a diminishing/subsiding trend to both winds and seas
during the pre-dawn Sun hours. This lowering trend will work its
way across the area waters from SW to NE as Matthew pulls away
from the NC coastline. Refer to the CWF for specific winds and
significant seas speeds and heights respectively.
Victory at Sea Conditions will continue well into the overnight
period with seas exhibiting dominating periods only in the 7 to 9
second range. With these periods occurring with 10 to 16 foot
seas. By morning, seas nearshore or along the immediate coast will
have cleaned up some.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Very dangerous boating conditions will
continue through the short term as Matthew pulls off to the east
of the waters. Although the official NHC forecast has Matthew as a
tropical storm by 8 AM Sunday and becoming post-tropical shortly
thereafter, the tight gradient between Matthew and a strong high
pressure to the west will keep winds and seas elevated. Expect the
period to start off with tropical storm-force winds in place, with
conditions remaining unfavorable for marine interests through
Monday night.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Expect gradual improvement through the
period with high pressure extending south from New England and the
remnants of Matthew pushing further away from the waters as it
gets absorbed by a frontal system. The period may start off rocky
for boating interests and it is possible that an advisory may be
in place at the beginning of the period. Seas will decrease to 3
to 5 ft later on Tuesday or on Wednesday.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Hurricane Warning for SCZ053>056.
Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039.
High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ054-056.
NC...Hurricane Warning for NCZ105>110.
Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ087-096-099.
High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...Hurricane Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...MRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
824 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016
.AVIATION...
VFR prevails over all TAF sites with weak westerly flow continuing
into the overnight hours. VFR should also prevail on Sunday at all
terminals.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 748 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016/
UPDATE...
With dry and stable air in place over the region, not expecting
any shower or storm activity to develop overnight. On Sunday,
as a frontal boundary sags over our region, drier air will
continue to be advected in from the north. Limited shower
activity is expected with partly cloudy skies and temperatures
near normal for this time of year. Thoughts on the forecast have
remained the same since the last package issuance, so no
adjustments were needed.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 451 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016/
SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will continue to filter into Florida this evening, as
Matthew pushes further up the North Carolina coastline. There will
be a slight chance of showers over the southern tip of Florida
through this evening, otherwise expect only a few passing high
clouds. Conditions should stay dry into Monday with high
temperatures decreasing slightly each day. A more moist
northeasterly flow may return by mid next week, brining another
chance for shower and storm activity.
DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery this afternoon showed what is now a low end
category 1 Hurricane Matthew traversing northeast up the North
Carolina Coast. A frontal boundary, behind this tropical feature,
could be seen filtering in dry air over northern and central
Florida. A rather stable atmosphere was observed on the 12Z MFL
morning sounding in the lower and mid levels. Latest runs of the
short term models, such as the HRRR and WRF indicate that a
couple of light showers may develop over the Southern tip of
Florida through this evening, so maintained slight chances in the
forecast package. Maximum temperatures across the region should
top out in the lower 90s, a few degrees above the norm for this
time of year. The 12Z GFS continues the southward push of the
aforementioned front towards south Florida tonight. Mostly dry
conditions are forecast for Sunday with PW values lowering to
below 1.50". By Monday, cooler weather will be advected into the
region along with lower dewpoints in the mid 60s, a short relief
from the typical muggy conditions.
Tuesday through Friday...NHC has squashed the possibly of Matthew
revisiting South Florida. According to the latest forecast track,
the storm becomes post tropical and diminishes out at sea. Long
range models build high pressure over the northeast Gulf by mid
week. This feature would act to develop northeast flow over South
Florida and bring a return to the lower and mid level moisture.
There will be a chance of showers and storms each afternoon over
the entire region, then limit the activity back to the east coast
at night.
MARINE...
Winds turn more northerly behind the front on Sunday into Monday,
with seas building once again, particularly in the Gulfstream.
A small craft advisory is effect from 2 pm Sunday to 8 pm
Wednesday for rough seas and gusty northeast winds across the
Atlantic waters. Conditions will begin to improve by Wednesday
night.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 147 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016/
AVIATION...
Not much change in the forecast. A weak front is moving through
South Florida. This will help to clear out the cloud cover, and
turn the wind to the northwest tonight, and northeast in the
morning. VFR conditions will prevail. TAFs show VRB for the wind
tonight, as it becomes 5 kts or less, and may not have a steady
direction, as it shifts. However, in the morning, it is forecast
to pick up to 10 to 12 kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 74 88 73 83 / 0 0 10 20
Fort Lauderdale 75 88 75 84 / 0 10 10 20
Miami 76 89 75 85 / 0 10 20 20
Naples 74 91 68 85 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...17/AR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
934 PM EDT Sat Oct 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east through the Mid Atlantic region
overnight as Matthew moves northeast along and off the Carolina
coast. High pressure will build in Sunday and remain over the much
of the eastern United States through Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 910 PM EDT Saturday...
Analysis showing very dry air invading the west attm with the
surface cold front pressing toward the Blue Ridge. However still
have lingering light to moderate rain over the southeast as bands
continue to rotate westward on the back of Mathew. Latest HRRR
again has slowed down the exodus of the rain with some lingering
bands until after midnight across the far east. Therefore have
upped pops again over the next hour or two across Southside while
keeping some low chances going into the early morning hours.
Otherwise expecting slow clearing from west to east as the front
crosses but with little added rainfall given dry advection. Other
main concern will be with increasing north/northwest winds behind
the front per a quick surge of subsidence once Mathew heads
farther east. Think could be close to advisory levels higher
ridges per 30-40 kt jet aloft but may take until tomorrow when
heating aids mixing to get higher speeds to the surface. Still may
include in the HWO overnight as given cold advection could see the
NC mountains reach briefly into advisory levels during the late
night nocturnal hours. Also with the wet ground, downed trees
could become an issue as well. Otherwise cool advection likely to
really punch in after midnight even out east so lowered temps
closer to the latest Lav values which brings 40s toward the Blue
Ridge and low 50s southeast.
Previous discussion as of 319 PM EDT Saturday...
At 2 pm this afternoon, Hurricane Matthew was near Myrtle
Beach,South Carolina and moving northeast around 12 mph. The center
of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of South
Carolina this afternoon, and be near the coast of southern North
Carolina by this evening into tonight. The NHC track still has the
hurricane turning right tonight into Sunday morning. The track is
close to 00z UKMET through 00z Monday. The other main feature in our
forecast is the cold front near in the western mountains this
afternoon. The cold front will move east across our region tonight
into Sunday.
The northwest area of moderate to heavy rain associated with
Hurricane Matthew continue to push northward into the foothills and
Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina. In general, slowed down the
eastern progression of Precipitation tonight. Adjusted pops with
a slower arrival of drier air tonight. Increased qpf for
this afternoon into tonight, especially in the southeast corner. Warm
rain processes will produce locally heavy rains in this tropical
airmass. At this time it appears any flooding coverage will not be
enough for any flood watch with matthew pushes east tonight.
850MB winds increase from the north into the 40 to 50 knot range
tonight. Expecting the gusty winds to become more common at higher
elevations behind the front late tonight. Wind gusts rise close to
advisory criteria at the highest elevations along the southern Blue
Ridge. Low temperatures tonight will range from near 40 degrees in
the northwest mountains to the mid 50s in the Piedmont. Matthew
will moving away from the region on Sunday as low amplitude ridging
builds over the East. There will be a very tight pressure gradient
between departing Matthew and the large high moving in from the
west. This will generate very windy conditions, especially at the
higher elevations from the mountains of NC into the southern Blue
Ridge Sunday. High temperatures Sunday will vary from the mid 50s
in the northwest mountains to the lower 70s in the Piedmont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 319 PM EDT Saturday...
No precipitation is expected this period as high pressure builds
in behind Matthew Sunday night into Monday. Some limited wind
gusts Sunday night between the departing Matthew and the high over
the Ohio Valley. Monday the high is expected to head over New
England wedging southwest to our area. Airmass looks dry so this
wedge will favor sunny skies with a Northeast flow. A warm front
lifts northward across the Ohio Valley Tuesday and may see some
clouds infiltrate WV/VA mountains but overall still mostly sunny.
Given weakening winds and cool high over the north, temperatures
at night should drop into the 40s, especially the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...
Building upper ridge early in the week gets shifted east and upper
flow turns more progressive mid-late week. A front is expected to
push across Thursday but is lacking moisture in a westerly flow, so
little threat of rain showers, but cannot rule out an stray shower
in the mountains Thursday. High pressure works in behind this front
Friday into Saturday, with temperatures close to seasonal norms or
just above for lows in the west.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Saturday...
Poor flying conditions early this evening will gradually improve
as deeper moisture on the back of Mathew and ahead of a cold front
starts to shift east. However widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings
will remain in place until Mathew moves farther east and the cold
front in the Ohio Valley crosses the Mid- Atlantic region this
evening. Decent agreement in the models that ceilings would begin
to lift tonight, generally from west to east with conditions
improving to VFR after 02Z/10PM.
Winds will remain gusty especially east of the mountains this
evening but quickly increase across the region overnight in the
wake of Mathew and behind the passing cold front especially after
06Z/2AM. At this time, believe that there is too much wind to
entertain any fog in the western valleys tonight so leaving out
mention. Boundary layer winds will be from the northwest at 15 to
30 knots.
On Sunday, VFR conditions return to all taf sites. Northerly winds
will be quite gusty especially across the higher terrain with
gusts to 25-30 knots for much of the day.
Medium confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds during the
taf period.
Extended aviation discussion...
For Sunday night through Wednesday, models are keeping the area
mainly dry so expecting overall VFR outside of early morning
patchy valley fog. Another weak cold front may bring a period of
sub-VFR cigs to the mountains on Thursday, otherwise VFR elsewhere.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH/KK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
346 AM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave of low pressure aloft will slowly cross the area
today before exiting to the east after midnight. This system will
interact with plentiful moisture in place and result in another
active day of showers and thunderstorms. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible mainly for central and southern
areas south of Interstate 40 this afternoon and evening. A drier
and warmer pattern will dominate Columbus Day although isolated
build-ups and possibly an afternoon shower or thunderstorm will
remain possible over the higher terrain. Even warmer and drier
condtions will dominate Tuesday before the next cold front pushes
southward on Wednesday. After a warming trend early in the week,
cooler than average temperatures and an increasing chance of
precipitation can be expected by Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Small MCS slowly tracking eastward toward the Socorro/Lower RGV region
early this morning while another distinct area of convection showing
signs of upscale organization across the southern portion of the
east- central plains. Both areas appear to be largely tied to
region of enhanced upper level difluence ahead of low amplitude
wave centered over northeast AZ. Indeed, a closer inspection of
water vapor imagery suggests a mesocale low pressure center or MCV
associated with the above-mentioned MCS as it rolled out of
eastern Catron County. With assistance from the latest HRRR,
attempted to value- add morning PoP grid to account for this on-
going convection as it does appear that SC to EC zones will be
favored in the 12Z-18Z window. Elsewhere, both the NAM12 and HRRR
show increased shower activity from central to northwest New
Mexico through the remainder of the morning. But PoP placement
especially challenging in this pattern characterized by modest
large- scale forcing. Will show overall coverage ramping up after
midday, especially across the north and along/east of the central
mountain chain.
Daytime temperatures should warm several degrees over Saturday for
all but the far north. As a result, beneath a broad and relatively
cool cyclonic flow aloft, convective parameters will become even
more favorable for central/southern areas than they were on
Saturday with surface based CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kj
indicated in the presence of moderately strong westerlies aloft.
Could see a few strong to briefly severe storms south of I-40.
Otherwise, focus for the greatest coverage of NMRS/WDSPRD PoPs
across the north and especially the higher terrain aided by
orographics.
Mid-level trough axis to slide east of the area shortly after
midnight tonight with drier/more stable conditions to follow for
Monday. Included a mention of patchy fog for the western valleys
and this may need to be expanded. Light snow accums for the peaks
of the northern mountains still on target but generally above
11kft. Residual moisture and daytime heating may touch off very
isolated mountain convection Monday PM but coverage too low to
mention most areas. Main message Columbus Day into Tuesday will
be warming temperatures under an increasing zonal flow aloft. Good
downslope warming signal on the plains for Tuesday PM. Stronger
nighttime inversions and drier air mass will result in a
significant widening of diurnal ranges.
Next backdoor front still on track to plunge into the northeast
plains early Wednesday, with cooler upslope conditions spreading
southward Wednesday night. As another weak wave approaches late
Wednesday into Thursday, areas of convective precipitation likely
to develop mainly focused across EC-SE New Mexico with clearing
Thursday night. Dry with warmer than average daytime temps
Friday- Sunday. kj
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant moisture is present over northern and central New Mexico,
and this should preclude any fire weather concerns today. The
original Pacific trough has shed one disturbance northeast of NM
while a secondary one in northern AZ is still staged to shift into
northern NM. Thus north central to northwestern NM will be a focal
area for shower and storm initiation today while a secondary area
potentially persists farther south where a weak jet aloft is
assisting. Overall, an active and wet day is forecast with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over a large section of the
forecast area today.
Despite an abundance of moisture, clouds, showers and storms,
today`s high temperatures are still forecast to nudge slightly above
yesterday`s readings in most locales, running near to just slightly
below mid October averages. Humidity values will remain elevated
into the late afternoon, generally ranging from 40 to 60 percent
with a few isolated spots staying even higher. Today`s ventilation
forecast includes a remnant patch or two of poor dispersion, mainly
in the northern mountains, but breezy conditions will develop in the
northeastern plains this afternoon. Precipitation is expected to
wane from west to east this evening and overnight.
A clearing trend is expected Monday as drier conditions gradually
work in from the west. Temperatures will rebound some, meeting or
just slightly exceeding seasonal averages. This will support rising
mixing heights, and consequently ventilation grids are indicating
fair to good rates by Monday afternoon. Minimum humidity will start
to decline some with the warmer temperatures, but nothing critical
is expected at this time. Some breezy conditions will ensue in the
afternoon along the Interstate 40 corridor, but elsewhere breezes
will be light to moderate, predominantly from the west.
A trough moving into the northern Rockies on Tuesday will drag some
scant moisture into WY and CO, but should stay mostly north of NM.
Temperatures will warm a couple degrees more, and humidity will fall
a bit more to the 15 to 25 percent range for most zones. As winds
aloft strengthen in response to the trough passing farther north,
sufficient vertical mixing should transport breezy west winds down
to many zones Tuesday afternoon.
By Wednesday forecast models are coming into better agreement
regarding the arrival of a cold front that is expected to invade the
northeast corner of NM early in the day, spilling through the
remainder of the plains through the daytime. Some gusts could
accelerate through central canyons, leading to windy conditions in
localized areas within the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday night.
Otherwise conditions appear dry Wednesday and Wednesday night, but
another weak disturbance aloft could bring the next round of
precipitation to east central NM on Thursday. The forecast for the
remainder of the week remains dry and fairly tranquil with an
absence of any significant large scale perturbations.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Most changes in the 06Z TAF package were with timing of TSRA/SHRA
in and out of TAF locations over the next few hours. SHRA will
clear out of KSAF in the next hour or so while SHRA should be
starting to impact KTCC and KROW by 08Z and tapering off by 10Z or
so. Ceilings will continue to drop overnight at these two
locations with MVFR likely and possibly down to IFR at KROW. IFR
conditions will prevail at KLVS through about 11-12Z when ceilings
should begin to lift.
A second round of showers and some thunderstorms will start to
move through the area starting about 15Z to 18Z. At this time,
confidence is not high enough to narrow down which sites may see
TSRA, thus kept VCSH in most locations.
54/Fontenot
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 69 43 74 45 / 50 10 5 5
Dulce........................... 61 31 69 34 / 80 30 10 5
Cuba............................ 61 39 67 40 / 70 30 10 5
Gallup.......................... 69 37 73 35 / 40 20 5 5
El Morro........................ 65 36 70 34 / 40 20 5 0
Grants.......................... 66 39 73 39 / 60 20 5 0
Quemado......................... 68 43 73 43 / 60 20 10 0
Glenwood........................ 76 52 80 51 / 40 10 5 0
Chama........................... 58 33 64 35 / 80 30 10 5
Los Alamos...................... 62 44 68 46 / 60 40 10 0
Pecos........................... 63 43 68 45 / 70 30 5 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 63 38 68 38 / 60 30 10 0
Red River....................... 53 36 58 32 / 70 40 10 5
Angel Fire...................... 59 30 64 31 / 60 40 10 0
Taos............................ 64 36 69 38 / 50 40 5 0
Mora............................ 62 42 68 44 / 60 30 5 0
Espanola........................ 67 45 73 47 / 50 30 5 0
Santa Fe........................ 62 44 67 45 / 70 30 5 5
Santa Fe Airport................ 66 43 72 43 / 50 30 5 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 51 73 50 / 70 30 5 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 69 51 75 52 / 50 30 5 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 72 50 76 47 / 50 20 5 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 71 49 77 50 / 50 30 5 0
Los Lunas....................... 72 47 77 48 / 50 30 5 0
Rio Rancho...................... 71 49 77 50 / 50 30 5 0
Socorro......................... 74 53 80 52 / 60 30 5 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 46 69 46 / 80 40 5 0
Tijeras......................... 68 48 73 48 / 80 30 5 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 66 42 71 41 / 60 30 5 0
Clines Corners.................. 64 44 70 44 / 50 50 5 0
Gran Quivira.................... 67 48 72 48 / 50 40 10 0
Carrizozo....................... 71 50 76 51 / 40 30 10 0
Ruidoso......................... 66 46 71 46 / 60 30 10 0
Capulin......................... 66 42 73 44 / 40 20 5 0
Raton........................... 70 40 77 42 / 30 20 5 0
Springer........................ 70 41 77 43 / 40 20 5 0
Las Vegas....................... 67 42 74 44 / 40 20 5 0
Clayton......................... 72 49 81 51 / 30 30 5 0
Roy............................. 68 43 77 47 / 30 30 5 0
Conchas......................... 73 53 83 54 / 40 40 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 73 52 82 53 / 50 50 5 0
Tucumcari....................... 74 53 86 52 / 50 30 0 0
Clovis.......................... 69 52 80 53 / 60 40 5 0
Portales........................ 69 53 80 54 / 60 40 5 0
Fort Sumner..................... 70 53 81 52 / 50 50 0 0
Roswell......................... 74 54 83 54 / 50 30 0 0
Picacho......................... 70 51 78 52 / 60 30 5 0
Elk............................. 67 49 74 49 / 60 30 10 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
41
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
320 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Skies will be clearing through the day as high pressure begins to
build into the region in the wake of a cold frontal passage. A
cooler and more seasonable air mass will then build in for the
remainder of the holiday weekend into early next week with dry
weather expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT...Local radar reveals little in the way of
shower activity across the region with the bulk of rainfall well
to the south and east of our local area. Surface analysis shows
surface cold front was just to the southeast of Litchfield County.
However, mid level frontal zone and short wave trough was lagging
behind a bit that is assisting with some of that light shower
activity. Satellite imagery shows was appears to be gravity waves
from `Matthew` advancing north and east of the center of the
circulation with cloud top enhancements tracking across the
region. Latest HRRR suggests a few more showers are possible for
the eastern half of the region as we will keep slight chance PoPs
through the mid-morning hours. Otherwise, backedge of the cloud
shield was near KBUF as skies should gradually improve from west
to east as the surface high begins to build in from the Great
Lakes region. Rather tight pressure gradient should keep wind
conditions a bit brisk today. H850 temps drop back to an average
of 0C by days end as highs today should be mainly into the 50s
with some lower 60s for immediate Capital District through the mid
Hudson River Valley.
That aforementioned gradient is expected to remain in place
tonight. While temperatures will dip back into the 30s for many
locations, per coordination from neighboring offices, it was
decided due to the winds that this should limit frost formation.
Later shifts could reevaluate as we will leave the potential into
the HWO at this time. Otherwise, a mostly clear sky should prevail
as 1030MB surface high builds closer to the local region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Big bubble, little trouble through the short term. While
conditions will be seasonable under mainly clear skies through the
short term, the concern will be the increase frost/freeze
potential for Monday night. Seems like ideal radiational cooling
conditions for the entire region as per latest MOS numbers, seems
the growing season may be ending for many locations Monday night.
We will continue to highlight in the HWO.
A rebound in the temperatures is expected for Tuesday as surface
and mid level ridge increases under a great deal of sunshine.
H850 temps climb back to around +10C with an increasing
southwesterly flow. Some high and mid level clouds may approach
toward days end Tuesday as upstream mid level impulse tracks from
the southern plains into the Ohio Valley by 00Z Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
he extended forecast continues to feature predominately fair and
dry early autumn weather with a cold frontal passage bringing very
little rain showers on Thursday into early Thursday evening.
High pressure remains anchored near the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
Coast Tuesday night through Wednesday. The mid and upper level flow
becomes southwesterly with H850 temps rising to near normal to
slightly above normal readings according to the 00Z GEFS. The
latest GFS has H850 temps rising to +8C to +10C by WED. After a
cool start to the morning with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s
across the region with some patchy to scattered frost...high temps
will rebound about 5 degrees above normal with lower to mid 60s
readings in the valley areas...and mid 50s to lower 60s over the
hills and mtns.
Wednesday night through Thursday night...A cold front makes steady
progress from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest Wed night. The
front does not make a good connection to the Gulf of Mexico and is
moisture starved as it arrives Thursday. The stronger upper level
dynamics race well north/northeast into west-central Quebec. The
best moisture convergence is north and west of the Great Capital
Region/Berkshires. High chc pops were used across the Adirondacks
THU with slight to lower chc pops further south and east. After
lows in the 40s with some increasing mid and high clouds...max temps
should be 5-10 degrees above normal head of the front. Highs in the
mid and upper 60s will be common from the Upper Hudson Valley...and
Capital Region south and east...with mid 50s to lower 60s north and
west. Decent low to mid level cold advection will occur in the wake
of the front with mid and upper 30s north and west of the Capital
Region...and and upper 40s to mid 40s south and east. The
isolated to scattered showers should end early.
Friday into Saturday...Canadian high pressure builds back in to
close the week...and dominate into next weekend. The sfc high will
move over southern Quebec and New England by Saturday. Temps will
trend cooler and closer to normal for the middle of OCT with highs
in the mid 50s to around 60F in the lower elevations...and mid 40s
to mid 50s over the hills and mountains. Lows Fri night will be in
the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front continues to move across eastern NY and western New
England this morning. Some isolated showers or light sprinkles
will linger south and east of Albany this morning. High pressure
will gradually build in late this afternoon into tonight.
Plenty of low-level moisture remains in place this morning for
CIGS to be in the MVFR range at KPOU and KPSF...and VFR range for
KALB/KGFL. Moisture moving north of Matthew and the boundary will
keep the ceilings in the MVFR range...1.5-3.0 kft AGL at
KPSF/KPOU with the chance of some light rain or showers prior to
12Z. Expect VFR CIGS to persist in the VFR range /4-5 kft AGL/ at
KALB/KGFL.
The CIGS will start to become SCT-BKN at all the TAF sites in the
late morning into the afternoon at 3.5-5 kft AGL. Some upper
level cloudiness will continue into the late afternoon for
KPOU/KPSF.
The winds will be variable in direction initially at 7 kts or
less at KALB/KGFL...but will shift to the north to northwest at
8-12 kts during the late morning into the afternoon with some
gusts close to 20 kts at KALB. The winds will increase initially
at 10-15 kts at KPOU/KPSF early this morning with some gusts close
to 20-25 kts with the frontal passage...but then they will be 5-10
kts in the late morning into the afternoon with some gusts in the
15-20 kt range.
Outlook...
Sunday Night through Wednesday night: No Operational Impact. NO
SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Outside of a few light showers this morning, a cooler and more
seasonable air mass will then build in for Sunday and Columbus
Day, with dry weather returning.
Relative Humidity values will drop to 45 to 60 percent today, 70
to 90 percent tonight and 30 to 50 percent Monday.
Winds will be north to northwest at 15 mph or less behind the
cold front this morning. North to northwest winds around 15 mph
will possibly gust over 20 mph Sunday afternoon. North to
northwest winds at 15 mph or less Sunday night will hold around 15
mph Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts be generally less than one tenth of an inch
across most of the area. The rainfall will not have any
significant impact on rivers and streams. Dry weather returns for
later today into Columbus Day.
The latest US Drought Monitor continues to show drought conditions
across much of the region. Precipitation departures this calendar
year have been 3 to 12 inches below normal, with the greatest
departures across southeastern parts of the HSA. As a result,
streamflow and ground water levels have been running below normal.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS
www.weather.gov/albany
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
327 AM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...
Unsettled southwesterly flow aloft will prevail today. This will
provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms along with plenty of
cloud cover as weak but relatively moist isentropic upglide persists
downstream of a complex southwestern CONUS trough. The primary
trough is still across Arizona early this morning, but water vapor
shows several areas of enhanced lift/moisture ahead of the final
wave over New Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Regional
radar backs this up with one area of showers over the eastern
Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma, another batch of showers
and a few storms over eastern-central New Mexico, and a small
cluster of convection over southwest New Mexico as of 08Z. A
recent uptick into radar echoes has also been noted over southeast
New Mexico into Far West Texas. In general the current NWP is
struggling to pick up on all the intricacies of this complex
pattern. Given this confidence in the details is relatively low.
That said, would expect at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms to affect the region through the day today, likely
favoring the western half or so of the CWA where lift and moisture
is expected to be best coincide. If the latest RAP and HRRR
solutions are correct, the best precipitation chances may be from
mid-morning through late afternoon, but confidence in this isn`t
very high and chose to maintain 12-hour PoP/Wx grids. Deep layer
moisture will begin to thin tonight, but the approach of the
primary trough and favorable position in the left exit region of
an upper jet could help maintain convection as it translates out
of New Mexico into at least the northwestern zones this evening
before it gradually weakens/fades early Monday morning.
Considerable cloud cover will make temperature forecasting a tricky
endeavor today. Highs may struggle to make it out of the 60s over
much of the Caprock today where clouds will be thickest and rain
chances highest. Off the Caprock thinner clouds and more limited
rain chances should allow highs to peak in the middle 70s. A
seasonably cool night will follow tonight with lows mostly in the
lower to middle 50s.
.LONG TERM...
No large adjustments are needed to the extended forecast this
morning. A drying and warming trend begins Monday as the weakening
upper trough exits to the northeast and is replaced by nearly
zonal aloft and southwesterly low-level flow. High temperatures will
be back in the lower 80s Monday, followed by mostly upper 80s on
Tuesday. A shortwave passing through the central and northern
plains is still expected to send a cold front south into the area
on Wednesday. The timing of the front is fairly consistent
between the GFS and ECMWF, with both models showing it moving
through our forecast area during the day. This timing could lead
to a pretty steep north-south gradient in temperatures, however further
adjustments in the temperature forecast are possible as the models
hone in on the front`s progression. After a cool start on Thursday
morning, we should see increasing cloud cover as the next
shortwave approaches from the west. Guidance suggests that low-
level moisture will not get shunted very far as the front stalls
out in the vicinity of the Permian Basin, and the moisture should
readily return as the winds above the surface pivot to the south
in advance of the approaching trough. Medium-range guidance
continues to produce a decent qpf signal for our area as the
trough moves over the region fairly swiftly as an open wave late
Thursday and early Friday. This should allow the cool temperatures
on Thursday to begin to recover Friday. A warm and dry weekend
look to be in the offing as a upper-level ridge over northwest MX
and the desert southwest builds eastward.
&&
.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
23/33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
507 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 506 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from
nrn Quebec to the ern Great Lakes and an upstream ridge from the nrn
plains into Saskatchewan/Manitoba resulting in nw flow through the
nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a ridge from nw Ontario into MN was
building toward the wrn Great Lakes resulting in nrly flow across
Lake superior. Instability with 850 mb temps around -4C and water
temps in the 12C-14C range supported sct lake effect rain showers
into n cntrl Upper Michigan. However, the marginal instability and
inversion heights around 4k-5k ft limited the coverage/intensity of
the pcpn.
Today, although 850 mb temp remain near -4c, expect the sct -shra to
diminish as the winds decrease with the high building into the area
with more anticyclonic flow developing. The most favorable low level
conv with the veering winds will keep the remaining pcpn into n
cntrl Upper Michigan before it ends early this afternoon. Otherwise,
partly sunny skies by afternoon will allow temps to climb into the
lower 50s.
Tonight, even with mostly clear skies, increasing srly winds as the
high slides off to the east will limit radiational cooling and keep
min temps to around 40 inland and the mid 40s near the Great Lakes.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016
Breezy SW winds and warmer than normal conditions from Mon to the
passage of a SFC trough/cold front Tue night and Wed morning. Mon
and early Mon night look dry, but isolated to scattered showers will
be possible from late Mon night to the approach of the front due to
weak shortwaves and WAA. More widespread showers are expected along
the front.
Behind the cold front, 850mb temps drop to -2C to -4C by 00Z (GFS is
colder faster than the ECMWF, then dropping further to -5C to -7C
Wed night into Thu afternoon. A SFC ridge will move over the area
Thu afternoon, which will be a limiting factor to lake effect, but
lake effect should develop Wed evening and persist (probably while
diminishing) into Thu afternoon. SW flow and warmer airmass will
result in lake effect coming to an end/moving out late Thu. Modified
grids from the initialization for the Wed night through Fri time
frame. Re-ran ForecastBuilder to generate/use MaxWbAloft grids for
type and also loaded consall max/min temps. Also increased PoPs Wed
night through Thu.
Ahead of the next shortwave/sfc reflection, warmer air (850mb temps
above 10C) moves back in for Sat and Sun until the associated cold
front moves through on Sun. For the most part, looks dry until the
cold front moves through, if that does indeed happen.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 142 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016
Although there wl be some lk effect clds flowing onshore thru this
mrng in the slowly veering nw-ne flow ahead of aprchg hi pres,
latest obs indicate the near sfc lyr is sufficiently dry to support
predominant vfr cigs. The exceptions wl be at IWD during the early
mrng hrs and SAW later this mrng into the aftn when the n to ne flow
wl present a sharper upslope wind component. Once the hi pres passes
to the e and winds shift to the s, vfr conditions wl persist.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 506 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016
SW winds will increase to 30 kts late tonight into Mon ahead of
another low pressure system then shift to the northwest to 20-30 kts
behind the system on Wed/Thu.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
602 AM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Unsettled weather will continue over northern and central New
Mexico over the next 24 hours as abundant moisture and
disturbances aloft feed scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA into area.
Downpours could produce some brief-lived MVFR conditions along
with gusty downburst winds and small hail. Some low clouds and
patchy fog will also be a concern both this morning and likely
again tonight. Overall precipitation should start to diminish from
west to east this evening into the overnight.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave of low pressure aloft will slowly cross the area
today before exiting to the east after midnight. This system will
interact with plentiful moisture in place and result in another
active day of showers and thunderstorms. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible mainly for central and southern
areas south of Interstate 40 this afternoon and evening. A drier
and warmer pattern will dominate Columbus Day although isolated
build-ups and possibly an afternoon shower or thunderstorm will
remain possible over the higher terrain. Even warmer and drier
condtions will dominate Tuesday before the next cold front pushes
southward on Wednesday. After a warming trend early in the week,
cooler than average temperatures and an increasing chance of
precipitation can be expected by Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Small MCS slowly tracking eastward toward the Socorro/Lower RGV region
early this morning while another distinct area of convection showing
signs of upscale organization across the southern portion of the
east- central plains. Both areas appear to be largely tied to
region of enhanced upper level difluence ahead of low amplitude
wave centered over northeast AZ. Indeed, a closer inspection of
water vapor imagery suggests a mesocale low pressure center or MCV
associated with the above-mentioned MCS as it rolled out of
eastern Catron County. With assistance from the latest HRRR,
attempted to value- add morning PoP grid to account for this on-
going convection as it does appear that SC to EC zones will be
favored in the 12Z-18Z window. Elsewhere, both the NAM12 and HRRR
show increased shower activity from central to northwest New
Mexico through the remainder of the morning. But PoP placement
especially challenging in this pattern characterized by modest
large- scale forcing. Will show overall coverage ramping up after
midday, especially across the north and along/east of the central
mountain chain.
Daytime temperatures should warm several degrees over Saturday for
all but the far north. As a result, beneath a broad and relatively
cool cyclonic flow aloft, convective parameters will become even
more favorable for central/southern areas than they were on
Saturday with surface based CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kj
indicated in the presence of moderately strong westerlies aloft.
Could see a few strong to briefly severe storms south of I-40.
Otherwise, focus for the greatest coverage of NMRS/WDSPRD PoPs
across the north and especially the higher terrain aided by
orographics.
Mid-level trough axis to slide east of the area shortly after
midnight tonight with drier/more stable conditions to follow for
Monday. Included a mention of patchy fog for the western valleys
and this may need to be expanded. Light snow accums for the peaks
of the northern mountains still on target but generally above
11kft. Residual moisture and daytime heating may touch off very
isolated mountain convection Monday PM but coverage too low to
mention most areas. Main message Columbus Day into Tuesday will
be warming temperatures under an increasing zonal flow aloft. Good
downslope warming signal on the plains for Tuesday PM. Stronger
nighttime inversions and drier air mass will result in a
significant widening of diurnal ranges.
Next backdoor front still on track to plunge into the northeast
plains early Wednesday, with cooler upslope conditions spreading
southward Wednesday night. As another weak wave approaches late
Wednesday into Thursday, areas of convective precipitation likely
to develop mainly focused across EC-SE New Mexico with clearing
Thursday night. Dry with warmer than average daytime temps
Friday- Sunday. kj
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant moisture is present over northern and central New Mexico,
and this should preclude any fire weather concerns today. The
original Pacific trough has shed one disturbance northeast of NM
while a secondary one in northern AZ is still staged to shift into
northern NM. Thus north central to northwestern NM will be a focal
area for shower and storm initiation today while a secondary area
potentially persists farther south where a weak jet aloft is
assisting. Overall, an active and wet day is forecast with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over a large section of the
forecast area today.
Despite an abundance of moisture, clouds, showers and storms,
today`s high temperatures are still forecast to nudge slightly above
yesterday`s readings in most locales, running near to just slightly
below mid October averages. Humidity values will remain elevated
into the late afternoon, generally ranging from 40 to 60 percent
with a few isolated spots staying even higher. Today`s ventilation
forecast includes a remnant patch or two of poor dispersion, mainly
in the northern mountains, but breezy conditions will develop in the
northeastern plains this afternoon. Precipitation is expected to
wane from west to east this evening and overnight.
A clearing trend is expected Monday as drier conditions gradually
work in from the west. Temperatures will rebound some, meeting or
just slightly exceeding seasonal averages. This will support rising
mixing heights, and consequently ventilation grids are indicating
fair to good rates by Monday afternoon. Minimum humidity will start
to decline some with the warmer temperatures, but nothing critical
is expected at this time. Some breezy conditions will ensue in the
afternoon along the Interstate 40 corridor, but elsewhere breezes
will be light to moderate, predominantly from the west.
A trough moving into the northern Rockies on Tuesday will drag some
scant moisture into WY and CO, but should stay mostly north of NM.
Temperatures will warm a couple degrees more, and humidity will fall
a bit more to the 15 to 25 percent range for most zones. As winds
aloft strengthen in response to the trough passing farther north,
sufficient vertical mixing should transport breezy west winds down
to many zones Tuesday afternoon.
By Wednesday forecast models are coming into better agreement
regarding the arrival of a cold front that is expected to invade the
northeast corner of NM early in the day, spilling through the
remainder of the plains through the daytime. Some gusts could
accelerate through central canyons, leading to windy conditions in
localized areas within the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday night.
Otherwise conditions appear dry Wednesday and Wednesday night, but
another weak disturbance aloft could bring the next round of
precipitation to east central NM on Thursday. The forecast for the
remainder of the week remains dry and fairly tranquil with an
absence of any significant large scale perturbations.
52
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
703 AM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016
.AVIATION...
MVFR cigs have recently moved over KLBB and KPVW while KCDS
remains VFR. This theme will likely hold through the morning,
though there is a slim chance of brief IFR conditions on the
Caprock. Ceilings should eventually lift to VFR at all the sites
by mid-afternoon. In addition, scattered showers and isolated
storms will will be possible through the day, with the best
chances being at KLBB and KPVW, though even KCDS could see a
shower. Did carry a light shower mention for the western TAF
sites through mid-afternoon, but confidence in thunder
development/coverage/timing is too low for inclusion ATTM, with
the heaviest early morning showers likely to pass just northwest
of KPVW. A few showers may linger in the region tonight. Sub-VFR
cigs could also redevelop, though this is not clear and has been
omitted from the forecast for now. Winds will be on the light side
through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016/
SHORT TERM...
Unsettled southwesterly flow aloft will prevail today. This will
provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms along with plenty of
cloud cover as weak but relatively moist isentropic upglide persists
downstream of a complex southwestern CONUS trough. The primary
trough is still across Arizona early this morning, but water vapor
shows several areas of enhanced lift/moisture ahead of the final
wave over New Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Regional
radar backs this up with one area of showers over the eastern
Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma, another batch of showers
and a few storms over eastern-central New Mexico, and a small
cluster of convection over southwest New Mexico as of 08Z. A
recent uptick into radar echoes has also been noted over southeast
New Mexico into Far West Texas. In general the current NWP is
struggling to pick up on all the intricacies of this complex
pattern. Given this confidence in the details is relatively low.
That said, would expect at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms to affect the region through the day today, likely
favoring the western half or so of the CWA where lift and moisture
is expected to be best coincide. If the latest RAP and HRRR
solutions are correct, the best precipitation chances may be from
mid-morning through late afternoon, but confidence in this isn`t
very high and chose to maintain 12-hour PoP/Wx grids. Deep layer
moisture will begin to thin tonight, but the approach of the
primary trough and favorable position in the left exit region of
an upper jet could help maintain convection as it translates out
of New Mexico into at least the northwestern zones this evening
before it gradually weakens/fades early Monday morning.
Considerable cloud cover will make temperature forecasting a tricky
endeavor today. Highs may struggle to make it out of the 60s over
much of the Caprock today where clouds will be thickest and rain
chances highest. Off the Caprock thinner clouds and more limited
rain chances should allow highs to peak in the middle 70s. A
seasonably cool night will follow tonight with lows mostly in the
lower to middle 50s.
LONG TERM...
No large adjustments are needed to the extended forecast this
morning. A drying and warming trend begins Monday as the weakening
upper trough exits to the northeast and is replaced by nearly
zonal aloft and southwesterly low-level flow. High temperatures will
be back in the lower 80s Monday, followed by mostly upper 80s on
Tuesday. A shortwave passing through the central and northern
plains is still expected to send a cold front south into the area
on Wednesday. The timing of the front is fairly consistent
between the GFS and ECMWF, with both models showing it moving
through our forecast area during the day. This timing could lead
to a pretty steep north-south gradient in temperatures, however further
adjustments in the temperature forecast are possible as the models
hone in on the front`s progression. After a cool start on Thursday
morning, we should see increasing cloud cover as the next
shortwave approaches from the west. Guidance suggests that low-
level moisture will not get shunted very far as the front stalls
out in the vicinity of the Permian Basin, and the moisture should
readily return as the winds above the surface pivot to the south
in advance of the approaching trough. Medium-range guidance
continues to produce a decent qpf signal for our area as the
trough moves over the region fairly swiftly as an open wave late
Thursday and early Friday. This should allow the cool temperatures
on Thursday to begin to recover Friday. A warm and dry weekend
look to be in the offing as a upper-level ridge over northwest MX
and the desert southwest builds eastward.
&&
.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
23/33/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
752 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 506 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough from
nrn Quebec to the ern Great Lakes and an upstream ridge from the nrn
plains into Saskatchewan/Manitoba resulting in nw flow through the
nrn Great Lakes. At the surface, a ridge from nw Ontario into MN was
building toward the wrn Great Lakes resulting in nrly flow across
Lake superior. Instability with 850 mb temps around -4C and water
temps in the 12C-14C range supported sct lake effect rain showers
into n cntrl Upper Michigan. However, the marginal instability and
inversion heights around 4k-5k ft limited the coverage/intensity of
the pcpn.
Today, although 850 mb temp remain near -4c, expect the sct -shra to
diminish as the winds decrease with the high building into the area
with more anticyclonic flow developing. The most favorable low level
conv with the veering winds will keep the remaining pcpn into n
cntrl Upper Michigan before it ends early this afternoon. Otherwise,
partly sunny skies by afternoon will allow temps to climb into the
lower 50s.
Tonight, even with mostly clear skies, increasing srly winds as the
high slides off to the east will limit radiational cooling and keep
min temps to around 40 inland and the mid 40s near the Great Lakes.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016
Breezy SW winds and warmer than normal conditions from Mon to the
passage of a SFC trough/cold front Tue night and Wed morning. Mon
and early Mon night look dry, but isolated to scattered showers will
be possible from late Mon night to the approach of the front due to
weak shortwaves and WAA. More widespread showers are expected along
the front.
Behind the cold front, 850mb temps drop to -2C to -4C by 00Z (GFS is
colder faster than the ECMWF, then dropping further to -5C to -7C
Wed night into Thu afternoon. A SFC ridge will move over the area
Thu afternoon, which will be a limiting factor to lake effect, but
lake effect should develop Wed evening and persist (probably while
diminishing) into Thu afternoon. SW flow and warmer airmass will
result in lake effect coming to an end/moving out late Thu. Modified
grids from the initialization for the Wed night through Fri time
frame. Re-ran ForecastBuilder to generate/use MaxWbAloft grids for
type and also loaded consall max/min temps. Also increased PoPs Wed
night through Thu.
Ahead of the next shortwave/sfc reflection, warmer air (850mb temps
above 10C) moves back in for Sat and Sun until the associated cold
front moves through on Sun. For the most part, looks dry until the
cold front moves through, if that does indeed happen.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 752 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016
Although there will be some lake effect clouds moving onshore
through this morning in the slowly veering nw-ne flow ahead of
approaching high pressure, the near sfc layer is sufficiently dry to
support predominant vfr cigs. The exceptions will be at SAW this
morning into the afternoon when the n to ne flow will result in a
stronger upslope wind component. Once the high pres passes to the e
and winds shift to the s, vfr conditions will persist.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 506 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2016
SW winds will increase to 30 kts late tonight into Mon ahead of
another low pressure system then shift to the northwest to 20-30 kts
behind the system on Wed/Thu.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
859 AM PDT Sun Oct 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A moist frontal system will stall over southern Washington today.
The Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington will likely
experience a chilly, all-day rain. Scattered rain showers will
linger over north Idaho Monday and Tuesday as dry and chilly
Canadian air pushes in from the north. Widespread freezing
temperatures will be likely Wednesday morning. Another wet and
unsettled period is expected Thursday through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Overall forecast for today appears on track with just a few minor
changes. A west-east mid level frontal boundary stalled from near
Astoria through the Tri-Cities, Palouse, and Central Panhandle
Mountains is expected to move little through the day. This will
keep the focus of the most persistent rain south of Interstate 90
to the Oregon border. However the last couple HRRR runs (13z and
14z) show the boundary lifting north late this afternoon with rain
reaching Wenatchee and all of the Upper Columbia Basin. However
with no evident yet of this boundary lifting north and with the
12z GFS and NAM not in support of this...opted to stick with the
little movement of this boundary today. Rain will limit
temperature rises today on the Palouse and Lewiston area and highs
were cooled slightly. Meanwhile...north winds channeling down the
Okanogan Valley this morning are a bit stronger than previously
thought. With Oroville RAWS gusting up to 40 mph, and Omak around
25 mph winds were increased here for this morning. Models show the
gradient decreasing in the afternoon so the strongest winds are
expected this morning. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A persistent light to moderate rain will occur over
southeast Washington and the central/southern Idaho Panhandle
today into tonight. Of our TAF sites, the Pullman airport will
receive the most rain over the next 24 hours and should experience
periods of stratus below 1000 feet this afternoon through the
night. Coeur d`Alene and Spokane will also have the potential for
periods of light rain which could contribute to ceilings below
2000 feet. /GKoch
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 61 42 55 33 53 32 / 40 90 10 10 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 59 42 54 32 53 30 / 50 100 20 10 10 0
Pullman 58 44 56 32 54 33 / 100 100 20 0 10 0
Lewiston 64 50 62 39 60 37 / 70 100 20 0 10 0
Colville 63 39 59 31 56 28 / 20 30 20 0 0 0
Sandpoint 56 40 51 33 50 29 / 50 90 50 20 10 10
Kellogg 55 41 50 31 49 30 / 100 100 50 20 10 10
Moses Lake 66 40 63 31 61 33 / 60 70 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 66 44 62 38 59 36 / 20 20 0 0 10 0
Omak 66 38 61 32 59 32 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016
Warmer the next couple days, then some rain and turning cooler mid-
week.
Highly amplified flow over the eastern Pacific will result in
strong downstream amplfication over North America the next several
days. Then during the latter half of the forecast period, a strong
Pacific jet will undercut the sharp ridge along the West Coast,
and spread eastward across the CONUS.
Temperatures will return to above normal tomorrow, briefly drop
back close to seasonal normals mid-week, then warm again for the
latter part of the period. The main opportunity for precipitation
will be with a frontal system crossing the area mid-week. Somewhat
lower chances exist with a weaker shortwave arriving prior to the
main system, and possibly with a second frontal system late in
the period. Normal precipitation for a week at this time of year
is a little over 1/2 inch, and the pattern seems as though it will
support near-normal amounts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a large
high pressure system centered across the area early this afternoon.
Light onshore flow off of Green Bay and Lake Superior/Michigan have
contributed to cu popping with daytime heating earlier this morning.
Otherwise, conditions are relatively quiet. Looking upstream,
widespread mid and high clouds are pushing east over the far
northern Plains and southern Canada, but the northern Mississippi
Valley remains mostly clear. As high pressure slides east tonight,
cloud trends and temps remain the primary forecast concerns.
Tonight...High pressure will be sliding east of the area, causing
winds to shift to the southeast and then south in response. Ample
dry air will keep most of the region clear, except for possibly the
lakeshore, where lake clouds could shift onshore as winds shift.
Still some possibility for winds to decouple over sandy soil areas
in the route 141 corridor and have lowered temps here into the upper
30s. Though think temps will be too warm for widespread frost, did
add patchy frost to this area. Otherwise, low temps should range
from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
Monday...The region will be located between high pressure centered
over the eastern Great Lakes and a cold front positioned over the
northern Plains. While a southern stream shortwave will be moving
across the central Plains, very dry air will reside over the western
Great Lakes region, providing ample sunshine. Southerly flow will
bring in warmer air, with max temps rising into the mid and upper
60s.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016
Lead shortwave crossing the area late Monday night and Tuesday may
generate some light precipitation. Then there will be a lull in
the rain chances before the main shortwave and a strong frontal
system arrive in the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Models
really don`t show it yet, but it appears the upper shortwave may
eventually result in some slowing of the main frontal system with
a secondary wave riding up the front. If that occurs, it could
result in rain chances lingering a little longer than what we
currently have in the forecast. A brief return to cooler weather
is expected as a Canadian air mass sweeps into the area in the
wake of the front. But flattening of the upper flow will cause the
cool air to quickly shift off to the east, with milder
temperatures returning by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016
High pressure will be moving across the region through the end of
the taf period, resulting in good flying weather for most locations.
Some clouds will build over northern and eastern WI with the
heating of the day today, but with mainly vfr conditions. Patchy
ground fog will again be possible late tonight into Monday morning
over northern WI.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......MPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
259 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016
Long wave trough within the northern stream located across western
Canada early this afternoon with downstream ridging occurring across
the upper midwest and southern Canada as seen in water vapor
imagery. Height rises associated with the building downstream ridge
fairly significant, in the 50-100m range at H5. Some cooling of
cloud tops across the northern Rockies in somewhat disorganized warm
advection zone. Further south, weak upper low within broad southwest
flow now moving into southern CO with scattered showers in warm
advection across KS and wrn TX, and over the southern Rockies.
Coverage of precip with this feature is not great despite PW values
in excess of 150 percent. Otherwise full sunshine across NE this
afternoon and temps 5-10 degrees above ave for this time of year.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(through Tonight)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016
Main forecast challenge through tonight will be potential for fog
after about 3 AM or so. With low level moisture increasing through
this afternoon, a crossover temp would be in the 50-52 range for
much of southwest NE. Since low temps are forecast in the upper 40s
in the southwestern portion of the state, this would approximate a
favorable hydrolapse to support fog formation given primarily clear
skies overnight. This is further supported by vertical specific
humidity profiles in BUFR soundings from NAM and to some extent RAP
in the southwest. In addition, MOS guidance from NAM also in favor
of a fog situation. The only detraction to this setup would be
development of mid level clouds which would inhibit potential for
radiative cooling. For now thinking is the development of mid clouds
would favor areas east of the previously mentioned areas.
So have added patchy and areas of fog in portions of southwest NE
overnight. This would generally be east of the lee trough axis and
mainly west of Highway 83. This would also likely include the I80
corridor so impacts and extent of visiblity will be monitored
carefully through the night.
Going back to the development of mid level cloudiness...the
development of a low level jet tonight, associated with the
aforementioned weak low to the south, paired with isentropic
downglide associated with northern stream will lead to mid level
frontogenesis in a region of elevated instability. This will occur
primarily east of the area but may affect the resulting cloud
cover across the southern portion of the forecast area. Should
development occur earlier, this would limit radiational cooling
affecting low temps and also fog potential. Again this will be
monitored for updates.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016
A well-defined dry line punching in from the west will determine how
low temperatures start in the morning. The GFS at 12z Mon for
example has a dewpoint of 52 degrees F in eastern Cherry county
while western Cherry county will be around 26 degrees F. Luckily
this dry air is not supposed to move in until we get closer to
sunrise so temperatures will not have much time to react. In
addition, there will be some fog forming along the dry line as
well that will help insulate but could create low visibilities for
the morning drive between Highways 61 and 83.
Southwest winds in advance of a cold front will help warm and dry
the boundary layer on Monday afternoon. High temperatures are still
expected to be 10-15 degrees above normal as high temperatures are
forecast to be around 80 degrees.
Given the aforementioned dry line and the above average high
temperatures, relative humidities will naturally be on the low side,
especially across the northwest. Model guidance continues to hold
wind speeds below Red Flag Warning criteria, at around 15 to 20kts,
with some gusts briefly exceeding criteria but again, this is
expected to be too brief to warrant a warning but at the same
time, it will definitely not be a great day to do any outdoor
burning.
The ridge continues to break down on Tuesday as a trough continues
to march southeast out of Canada. Winds will shift to be out of the
North on Tuesday with much cooler temperatures expected behind a
front, especially across the Sandhills where highs will struggle to
meet 50 degrees. The front itself is pretty dry but there will be a
chance for some precipitation later in the night as some stronger QG
forcing arrives along with the trough. It is certainly cold enough
aloft for some snowfall but given the mild surface temperatures, it
will have a tough time sticking but it can stick to elevated
surfaces and grasses, like we saw with the last system. However, we
don`t have the nearly stationary frontogenesis band that we had with
the last system, most of the precipitation will move in and out
fairly fast...that will also limit any snow that does have the
chance to accumulate. There will be rapid clearing behind the mid
level front as downward forcing behind the trough takes over. Frost
will be a concern Wednesday morning with highs only rebounding into
the upper 40s to lower 50s by afternoon.
After Wednesday, heights again rise into the weekend with a return
to 70 and even 80 degree temperatures by Friday and Saturday. The
forecast also remains dry after Tuesday Night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016
Mainly VFR conditions through the period. However, based on fcst
sounding profiles it would appear some fog formation, and possible
stratus, is possible along and east of sfc trough axis along the
High Plains. Gridded fcst shows this area to be just west of KLBF
as well west of KVTN, where vsby less than 1SM would be possible.
Have included a tempo group with vsby reduced to 3SM in BR for
KLBF since fog formation in the river valley in close proximity
would be a concern. This may be lowered with subsequent forecasts.
The other concern for this period would be LLWS however confidence
on extent of criteria is low with this forecast. This potential
will also be monitored for possible addition into the TAF
especially for KLBF with later fcsts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016
...Outdoor burning not recommended on Monday in Sheridan...
Cherry...Garden...Grant...Arthur...Keith...and Deuel Counties...
Unseasonably warm temperatures and the advancement of a dry line
early on Monday will drop Relative Humidity values into the upper
teens on Monday afternoon. In addition, winds will pick up in the
afternoon to around 20 mph with occasional higher gusts possible
across northwestern Nebraska. Areas east of a line from about
Valentine to Imperial will have significantly higher RH. A dry
cold front is forecast to drop into the area from the north after
midnight, shifting wind directions to the north with a period of
gusty wind but ushering in cooler temperatures and higher
relative humidities for Tuesday at the same time. There will be a
chance of wetting rain and/or snow on late Tuesday night and
Wednesday followed by high temperatures about 15 degrees below
normal.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Stoppkotte
SHORT TERM...Stoppkotte
LONG TERM...Allen
AVIATION...Stoppkotte
FIRE WEATHER...Allen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
357 PM CDT SUN OCT 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016
Forecast concerns in the short term will be shower and
thunderstorm chances late tonight through Monday evening and how
much the clouds will hold back temperatures...then precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday and if it be cold enough for
a mix of precipitation for parts of northeast Nebraska by
Wednesday morning.
Latest water vapor satellite imagery/h5 heights show a shortwave
trough over Colorado with a more expansive area of low
pressure/h5 trough from the Northwest Territories toward Vancouver
Island and the Pacific Ocean.
The visible satellite shows a disturbed area of clouds with the
shortwave over Colorado and Kansas. With the warmer air returning
and gusty south winds with the warmer air lifting
north...temperatures returned to the 70s today.
The short term forecast progs are in good agreement that the
shortwave trough over Colorado will move into the Plains. A
strengthening low level jet of 35 to 40kts and increasing h85
dewpoints to 10 to 12 deg C with theta-e advection will result in
the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. A few echoes were
noted across Kansas. The SPC HRRR and the RAP/ESRL HRRR have the
echoes near the Kansas/Nebraska border mainly aloft...with
coverage increasing from isolated then scattered showers between
06-12z spreading into southeast Nebraska Monday morning then
shifting into Iowa. Precipitation should be generally along and
south of I80 in Nebraska then into western Iowa. CAPE appears
limited...however there is some elevated instability. pwat values
increase to around 1 to 1.25 inches. A few showers are expected to
linger in far southeast Nebraska and our southern Iowa counties
during the evening. Temperatures will be held down in southeast
Nebraska and western Iowa (upper 60s to lower 70s), however
farther north in northeast Nebraska highs should top out in the
mid and upper 70s.
The longwave trough from the Pacific Northwest and Canada
approaches from the north and by Tuesday...A cold front is moving
across the forecast area. There is instability ahead of the front,
however the precipitation appears limited. Isolated precipitation
appears post- frontal in northeast Nebraska Tuesday near the South
Dakota border. Tuesday night rain chances increase as the upper
level support strengthens. By Wednesday morning...h85 temperatures
drop to zero or cooler, however the bulk of the precipitation appears
to end before it can turn to a mix.
Tuesday should be in the 60s and 70s, however much cooler highs in
the upper 40s and 50s are forecast for Wednesday.
Brisk southwest winds are expected Monday and brisk northwest
winds are forecast behind the front Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016
...After a cold start, the rest of the extended shows a
warming trend...
Surface high pressure is over the area at the start of the extended
with h85 temperatures around +4 deg C. Current forecasts have lows
30 to 35 across the forecast area and these will be highly dependent
on where the surface ridge is along with cloudcover and winds.
A weak shortwave moves across the southern Plains, clipping
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa...thus the shower chances
there Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. The models differ on
the timing and strength of the next front. The GFS tends to be a
little stronger with is and has the front through Saturday night,
while the EC is weaker and stalls the front Sunday. For now there
is a rain mention Saturday night and Sunday night, however northeast
Nebraska remains dry through the period.
Highs start out in the 50s Thursday...rise to the 60s Friday with
70s forecast for Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Oct 9 2016
Look for VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Mid level
clouds should increase overnight. Low level wind shear is also
likely at KOFK and KLNK after 06Z as a decent low level jet
develops. The chance of thunderstorms is too low to mention in the
TAFs at this time.
&&
.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Zapotocny
LONG TERM...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
332 PM MDT Sun Oct 9 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Sun Oct 9 2016
...An Upper Level Disturbance will Drift Slowly East Across the Area
this Evening...
An upper level disturbance near the Four Corners Region will drift
slowly eastward through the remainder of the afternoon into the
evening. The disturbance has been dropping some precipitation over
the San Juan mountains this afternoon, including 0.48 inches so far
at Durango. Webcams around Cumbres and La Manga passes also show
the rain coming down with likely some wet snow above 11 thousand
feet or so. Radar is also starting to show some showers popping
over the southern San Luis Valley and southern Sangre De Cristos
now. A few showers will likely continue to develop and spread
eastward across the plains through the evening as the upper
disturbance comes across. There is enough instability for a few
thunderstorms with primary threats of lightning, wind gusts to
around 40 mph and spotty heavy rainfall. It continues to look like
most of the action will be south of Highway 50...near the upper low
center as it moves across. The HRRR develops the most intense
activity near the low center over the far southeast plains between
about 4 and 8 PM. We will see how that goes. The Storm Prediction
Center currently has Baca County, the southeastern half of Prowers
County and a small portion of far eastern Las Animas County under a
marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Primary
threats in those areas would be wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up
to 1 inch in diameter. Not a big threat this evening but something
to keep an eye on.
Westerly flow aloft will bring a warmer and drier day to most of the
area Monday. However, some mid and upper level moisture entrained
in the flow will bring just a slight chance for an afternoon or
evening shower or thunderstorm to the mountains. The primary
threats from any thunderstorms would again be lightning and gusty
winds. But this time around, the threat will be mainly north of
Highway 50 instead of south of it.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Sun Oct 9 2016
Not many adjustments required from previous meteorological
reasoning with primary longer term issues continuing to be
temperatures as well as generally low-grade to nil pops and
locally gusty winds at times.
Recent longer term computer simulations...forecast model
soundings and PV analysis continue to suggest that basically
zonal to southwesterly upper flow will continue over the forecast
district into next weekend with three relatively weak/fast moving
upper disturbances(per PV analysis...etc.) to contend with during
the longer term.
At the surface...eastern Colorado lee-side troughing is
anticipated from Monday evening into Tuesday with healthy
north-northeasterly to easterly surface surge impacting primarily
eastern portions of the forecast district Wednesday. Eastern
Colorado lee-side surface troughing then returns to eastern
Colorado from later Thursday into at least Saturday.
The highest potential of precipiation(including some higher
elevation light snow at times) should be noted from Tuesday into
Thursday and then again Saturday night with passing relatively
weak/quick moving upper level disturbances. Also...the highest
potential of gusty gradient winds is anticipated from Tuesday into
Tuesday night...Wednesday night and then again from Friday night
into Saturday.
It still appears that above seasonal mid-October minimum and
maximum temperatures should continue over the CWFA from Monday evening
into Wednesday morning with near to below seasonal temperatures
still expected from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday in advance
of warmer conditions returning from Friday into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Sun Oct 9 2016
Upper disturbance near Four Corners Region will drift slowly east
across flight area this evening. System is currently bringing
precipitation to the San Juan Mountains. KDRO picked up at least
0.48 inches of rain today and has seen MVFR CIGS and VSBYS at times.
Webcams indicate rain and higher elevation snow has been falling
over the Cumbres and La Manga Pass areas at times, with the
surrounding peaks obscured in clouds and precipitation. Areas of
MVFR,IFR and LIFR flight conditions can be expected in precipitation
as this activity drifts eastward this evening. Could also be a few
thunderstorms this evening with primary threats of lightning, winds
gusting to around 40 mph and spotty heavy rainfall. Otherwise,
generally VFR across the flight area next 24 hours, including the
KCOS, KPUB and KALS TAF sites.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW