Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/08/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1033 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of high pressure will slide east across the region
tonight. Hot and humid air will then overspread the region
Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some locally
strong, will develop in the afternoon and evening as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Warm but less humid conditions will
return for Friday, before unsettled conditions develop on
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1033 PM EDT...IR satellite and sfc observations continues
to show fairly clear skies over the region. One last batch of
lower clouds continues over Litchfield County Connecticut thanks
to the circulation around a stubbon offshore area of low pressure,
but much of the remaining part of the region is currently clear
with just some thin cirrus.
Meanwhile, convection over Ontario and western New York is heading
eastward. The 3km HRRR suggests the bulk of this activity will
die out before it reaches our area, with perhaps just an isolated
shower or two reaching the western Adirondacks by daybreak.
However, some mid and high level clouds will start to stream in
overnight, especially for areas west of the Hudson Valley. Sky
cover should vary overnight, with the most clear skies in central
and southern parts of the area.
With the mainly clear skies and light winds, patchy fog is
expected to form in spots overnight, mainly for the typical valleys
and near bodies of water.
With the expectation of a period of clear skies and light winds,
have sided with or went slightly below the coolest guidance, with
min temps mainly ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s, except for
some mid 50s possibly across portions of the southern Adirondacks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...Hot and humid conditions Thursday, with the potential for
strong to severe late day thunderstorms mainly north and west of
Albany...
The aforementioned warm front will slowly migrate east during the
morning/early afternoon hours, with isolated showers/thunderstorms
possible along the boundary. Behind the warm front, a hot and
humid air mass is expected to advect into the region. There is
some uncertainty as to how much residual cloud cover remains
during the late morning and afternoon hours, resulting in
uncertainty in high temperatures, and also MU CAPES for the
afternoon/evening hours. Both the 12Z/07 NAM and GFS suggest the
potential for MU CAPES to reach at least 1000-1500 J/kg,
particularly in valley areas from Albany north and west. There are
some pockets both within these models, as well as within some of
the 09Z/07 SREF members with much higher CAPES, exceeding 2000
J/kg, again particularly in valley areas Albany north and west.
Although 0-6 km bulk shear will mainly be in the 25-30 KT range,
there is some directional shear. Of more concern is the rather
strong wind field in the H850-H700 layer of 35-45 KT. If a period
of sustained sunshine can develop Thursday afternoon, then there
is a threat for scattered strong thunderstorms to develop, and
potential organize into a line with possible bowing segments
accompanied by strong/damaging winds. This threat appears to be
greatest for areas near and north of I-90 in the late afternoon
hours through early Thursday night. If any more discrete cells
develop initially, there could be some weak supercellular
development, especially across the Mohawk Valley and within the
Hudson Valley where a slightly backed low level flow may persist.
Otherwise, expect max temps to reach 85-90 in valley areas and
80-85 across higher terrain. Dewpoints are expected to rise into
the upper 60s to lower 70s by mid to late afternoon, which
combined with forecast max temps, should produce heat indices in
the mid to upper 90s within valley areas. Will continue to
highlight this potential for heat in the HWOALY, despite current
forecast heat indices remaining below advisory thresholds, to
increase awareness of the heat with school and school sports
activities underway.
For Thursday night, evening showers/thunderstorms should be most
numerous across northern areas, and again, could be locally
strong/severe. The showers/thunderstorms should decrease in areal
coverage/intensity before midnight, and taper off after midnight,
with just isolated showers/thunderstorms possible with the cold
front after midnight mainly for the SE Catskills/mid Hudson Valley
and NW CT. Lows should mainly be in the 60s to lower 70s.
Friday-Friday night, the cold front will move south and east of
the region as high pressure builds in. Expect mostly sunny skies
Friday and mostly clear Friday evening, before clouds increase
late Friday night. It will still be quite warm Friday, with highs
reaching 85-90 in valleys, and mid 70s to lower 80s across higher
elevations, but humidity levels will be falling through the day.
Friday night lows will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
On Saturday, a low pressure system will strengthen as it tracks
northeast across the Great Lakes. A warm front associated with
this low will track northeastward, and may lead to a round of
showers and embedded thunderstorms sometime between late morning
into the afternoon hours. There is uncertainty regarding timing
and extent of cloud cover and showers. There is a possibility that
clouds and showers become fairly widespread during the day. Will
have to watch trends. Highs are forecast to reach the lower/mid
80s in valley and mainly 70s across higher elevations, but highs
could be much cooler if clouds/showers become more widespread.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The weekend will be initially active as storm wraps up across the
Great Lakes region and tracks across eastern Canada. A warm front
will track across the region to be followed by a rather strong cold
front overnight Saturday. This front is rather well progged by the
12Z global models to quickly be just east of our region Sunday
morning. So we will place high chance to likely PoPs across the
region Saturday night with showers/thunderstorms. At this time, due
to the nocturnal timing of the frontal passage, severe weather
appears minimal at this time. However, with PWATs climbing at or
above 2 inches, periods of heavy rainfall (and needed) may accompany
this convection.
Sunday in the wake of the frontal passage, breezy and drier
conditions filter in from the northwest. As H850 wind magnitudes
around 20-25kts and temperatures drop back into the single digits,
this will result in surface afternoon highs mainly into the 70s and
dropping dewpoints into the 50s.
Then a large area of high pressure should provide nice, pleasant and
calm conditions through Tuesday under clear/mostly clear skies. A
slight rebound in the temperatures are expected, especially on
Tuesday, as upper ridge and thermal column moderates a couple more
degrees to result lower 80s for valley locations and 70s for the
terrain. Overnight lows mainly into the 50s with cooler upper 40s
for the terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are currently in place with mainly clear skies
across the region and very light or calm winds. With the good
radiation cooling in place, some fog may develop late tonight at
KGFL/KPSF, so have gone with a period of IFR fog for both of these
sites. Meanwhile, fog looks somewhat less likely at KALB/KPOU so
will leave out for now, but will continue to watch observations
trends.
Any fog/mist should dissipate by 12z, allowing for VFR conditions
to return to all sites. A light south wind will develop at 5-10
kts with some high clouds starting to pass through for the morning
hours. Some lower cumulus clouds around 4-5 kft will develop by
the late morning or early afternoon hours, as a cold front starts
to approach from the west. These clouds look to become bkn by the
mid to late afternoon hours, with a chance for a shower or
t-storm arriving late in the TAF period as well. Will just address
with a VCSH for now due to uncertainty regarding coverage and
timing, but it`s possible that there could be a brief reduction
due to the passing showers/t-storms for any TAF site late in the
day.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak ridge of high pressure will slide east across the region
tonight. Hot and humid air will then overspread the region
Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some locally
strong, will develop in the afternoon and evening as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Warm but less humid conditions will
return for Friday, before unsettled conditions develop on
Saturday.
RH values will climb to 90-100 percent tonight, with widespread
dew formation likely. RH values will fall to 50-65 percent
Thursday afternoon.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Thursday
afternoon and evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
An approaching cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon/evening. Locally heavy
downpours will be possible, and could lead to ponding of water in
poor drainage/urban areas. However, this rainfall should only have
negligible effects on area rivers.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday into
Saturday night.
Other than the showers and thunderstorms with the frontal
systems, no widespread soaking rainfall is expected through at
least early next week.
Precipitation departures so far this year:
Albany NY: -3.30 inches
Glens Falls NY: -5.82 inches
Poughkeepsie NY: -9.17 inches
Bennington VT: -6.84 inches
Pittsfield MA: -7.03 inches
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
922 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Showers have been expanding over mainly nrn lower over the last
few hours. Much better shortwave and also an MCV running ENE our
way. This is spreading upper divergence jet dynamics and
associated low to mid level warm/moist advection over and ahead of
a frontal zone laid out across nrn lower Michigan along/north of
M-32. Lapse rates stink and CAPE has been rather minimal, so
thunderstorms were almost non-existent. The air mass was
astoundingly moist with a PWAT of 1.84", and in conjunction with
the aforementioned forcing, rainfall has been efficient. GRR 3hr
rainfall of up to 3" (1" per hour) was laid out south of MBL/CAD.
These totals were associated with stronger convective elements,
which were now propagating increasingly eastward and south of
Gladwin/Arenac counties (where we expected would be the greatest
threat for heavy rainfall). Heaviest rains for us will still be in
the far SE CWA, and also where there may be a few rumbles of
thunder heard.
The back edge of the steady rain shield was approaching MBL, with
more spotty showers behind. This tapering off of the rain will run
through all of the region through the overnight. Eastern upper has
been and will really just see some spotty light rain/sprinkles and
much lower QPF. Very warm and humid with lows in the upper 60s and
lower 70s for most.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
High Impact Weather: Possible Heavy rain tonight.
Weak sfc trough is stretched out across the region with a jet
streak of 50 knots moving through the region as well. Rain on the
radar has been continuing to trend downward for most of the
afternoon, with only some small areas of development on KAPX radar
with the last 1/2 hour. Main rain/thunder action has been along
and south of US-10 corridor outside of the forecast area. This has
made the forecast a challenge, as the showers/thunderstorms
downstate have been pushing the cold pool south inhibiting the
triggering of convection along the weak sfc trough/front.
Tonight...as mentioned earlier in an update, the model spread of
where/when the rain will begin to redevelop has been vast. The
GFS/ECMWF ideas of rain widespread across the forecast area late
this afternoon/early this evening with the front/sfc trough then
pushing south and east by 12z. Looking at the NAM12, it does have
some sort of convective feedback area, on it, but generally is in
line with the GFS/ECMWF idea, as is the 18z/RAP13 model. The
HiRes models (ARW and NMM) both have a southern start to the rain
before developing heavy rain in the Straits region overnight.
Although the NMM does have rain spread liberally across the
forecast area somewhat like the GFS/ECMWF idea. The HRRR is along
the lines of the ARW.
So have tried to take some sort of consensus forecast overnight
with the rain developing and moving into the region around 00z and
continuing across the forecast area through 06z. Then the dry air
beginning to move into the region after 06z as the cold front
pushes the rain out of the region by Thursday morning.
Thursday...Large nose of 700-500 mb layer dry air pushes into the
Upper Great Lakes after 12z. The ECMWF is a little more vigorous
with the QPF over the region with light, scattered showers through
the morning while the GFS, actually stops raining. The after is
dry on both models and the NAM as well. So have been scaling back
the pops and drying out the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
High impact weather potential: Another round of heavier rain.
Pool of deeper moisture south of the cold front starts to return
late Friday as upper trough moves into the northern Midwest. Frontal
system strengthens as it moves into the Great Lakes and LLJ develops
out ahead. Surface low forecast to move over northern MI late
Friday/early Saturday. Not much instability forecast this far north
but right entrance region of upper jet and LLJ move overhead Friday
night with PWATs between 1.5" and 2.0". With plenty of moisture and
lift over northern MI expect another descent bout of rainfall. Even
though surface low moves quickly through the region...upper trough
lags so not looking for much improvement during the day Saturday.
Farina
Extended (Saturday night through Wednesday)...
High pressure looks to quickly usher any lingering precip well east
of the area Saturday night. Mostly sunny skies, light winds and
gradually moderating temperatures are expected for the end of the
weekend into the start of next week prior to another cold front
arriving during the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, bringing scattered
showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. Another expansive area
of high pressure settles atop the heart of the country for the tail
end of the next work week.
Gillen
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
...Worsening conditions...
Much better forcing is moving overhead attm with the approach of
low pressure and moderate to strong low to mid level warm/moist
advection. Rains were expanding over the GTV Bay region and will
then spread across all of nrn lower Michigan over the next
several hours. CIGS will fall over this time, with more
significant LIFR conditions likely as the low pressure passes
overhead with light/calm winds in a juicy low level air mass.
Rains end through the overnight hours, with strengthening
westerly flow developing late and into Thursday, which will begin
the process of scouring out the low clouds. Some spotty light
rains are possible Thursday as another disturbance aloft and a
cold front swings through, and will have to watch for maybe a
brief return of IFR/MVFR stratus, but there is low confidence in
that scenario attm.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Tonight through Friday...Winds will start off light and variable
as the low begins to develop in eastern Iowa. However, as the low
moves toward the Upper Great Lakes, the winds will begin to
increase overnight, but looks to remain below small craft
criteria. Thursday, the winds will shift to the west and relax for
a bit as a sfc high begins to move into the Upper Mississippi
Valley. Thursday night, the high will build into the State,
causing the winds to be light and variable again. Friday, the
winds will begin to increase out of the south west again as the
sfc high moves to the Lower Great Lakes and Michigan gets into the
return flow.
&&
.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Dickson
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...Gillen/Farina
AVIATION...Dickson
MARINE...JSL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
743 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016
.UPDATE...Tonight
Issued at 743 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
The threat for heavy rain has ended across northeast Iowa and
southwest Wisconsin...the Flood Watch has been canceled.
Additional rainfall amounts tonight, if storms develop, will be
light and mainly south of areas recently hit by heavy rainfall.
Remain alert for rising water levels if you live near a river or
stream across northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Have also
updated the forecast to reduce precipitation chances through
midnight. The rest of the forecast is on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Flooding threat looks to have taken a step down, certainly
compared to last night. Areas that did not see too much rain last
night look to be the receivers through the evening.
Main focus is really on the next 12 hours across the area with
radar indicating next wave of rain quickly approaching.
Instability for heavier rainfall rates (MUCAPE over 1000 J/Kg)
really confined to the southernmost forecast area per SPC
mesoanalysis at 19z - southern WI and adjacent IA counties on Miss
River. Moisture transport increases into and ahead of the wave
now over eastern IA coming in per RAP forecasts, and into the
evening. Thus, we should see an uptick in showers across the area
overall with this wave, with the strongest storms over that
southernmost area.
The latest RAP guidance suggests that the low-level moisture
transport will quickly veer to the east with even westerly 850 mb
flow occurring over the southern forecast area by 7 pm. This
suggestion is supported in many of the models with a quick drying
after this one-and-done wave of rain through early evening. If
this is the case, and it seems legit with current observations, it
is easy to see why the flooding threat has diminished across at
least the flood watch area. Forecast amounts of closer to 1-2"
look to be the upper estimates by 7 pm, with soils able to handle
that amount.
Will keep the Flood Watch for this far southern area to keep
collaborated with the neighbors and for rain, but the remaining
Watch could probably be expired early this evening (see codes
below for remaining area).
Water vapor showing a strong shortwave trough over the Dakotas at
this time and a quick recovery in CAPE has been occurring in
western MN and eastern SD today. This all ahead of the surface
cold front that will eventually make its way into the area
Saturday (dewpoint relief!). This is upscaling the convection
associated with that strong trough forcing in the Dakotas. Latest
trends in the CAMs bring a convective line through MN tonight
and 30-50 percent small chance of thunderstorms north of I-90
tonight, but CAPE should be waning during the overnight hours and
the QG forcing is lifting strongly northeast.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Thursday night through Friday night...Rapid return flow ahead of a
strong shortwave trough entering the Dakotas Thursday night will
bring the chance for storms to the area again into Friday morning.
Then...the main trough moves in with a cold frontal passage
Friday afternoon. Pretty impressive mid-level lapse rates Friday
above 7C and a straight line supercell shear hodograph means it
could be interesting. The biggest limiting factor /also mentioned
in the spc day 3 outlook/ is clouds and building instability.
Should this instability grow Friday afternoon, severe weather is
likely and another 1" of rain could occur. So, for now it is a
conditional threat, on the condition that instability develops.
Plan to update the Haz Weather Outlook to include a bit more
threat Friday. There could be an isolated severe threat Thursday
night with return flow - mainly large hail - should instability
return be large enough.
Saturday through Wednesday looks to be a cooler and drier period
with northwest flow dominant. However, some differences occur for
next week in the evolution of a large scale trough in the western
U.S. in the model guidance. We are hoping this doesnt turn into a
prolonged southwest flow regime and rainier pattern again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Periods of IFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites tonight in
BR and possibly low stratus at times. Drizzle or light rain
showers are also expected through the late night hours. High
pressure builds in during the day on Thursday with VFR conditions
expected by the afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
The Upper Iowa and Kickapoo river basins were hardest hit of the
bunch overnight and will see mainly minor flooding. However, many
secondary roads are still closed in Richland and Vernon counties with
water over the roads in Richland still. Iowa and Minnesota seem
to be more improved with no water over roads. will reissue the
areal flood warning for the richland/crawford/vernon county area
overnight.
&&
.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1001 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
High pressure continues to build over western and central ND
behind an exiting cold front. This will bring mostly clear skies
to much of the region overnight with cooler temperatures. Lowered
overnight lows a few degrees most areas. With rains today and
residual moisture lingering in the east decided to mention some
patchy fog over the north central into the James River Valley.
Latest HRRR clears things out with drier air moving in from the
west or might have pulled it back farther west. Overnight shift
can adjust as needed. Latest iterations of the short term models
and the latest NAM are a little later bringing precipitation into
the far west Thursday and also farther south. Used a blend of
short term guidance to updated pops for Thursday. This brought
pops farther south into southwest and south central ND from
previous forecast. Limited thunder to late in the morning and
afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Severe threat has ended over western and central ND and Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. Still a few showers
associated with the cold front moving through the Highway 83
corridor at this time but appear to be diminishing with increasing
subsidence. Updated weather and pops based on latest radar and
satellite imagery. Updated text products will be sent shortly.
UPDATE Issued at 451 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Quick update to drop Emmons County from the watch, and to update
weather/pops. Convection across our southeast CWA has really waned
over the past hour. Think there is still some potential over the
far southeast counties for a couple more hours. One stronger cell
remains over southern Dickey county between Forbes and Ellendale.
Still a line of showers with the cold front moving through the
central. This will remain below severe levels. Updated text
products out shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Current surface analysis places low over northwest into north
central South Dakota...with trough/boundary extended north into
western North Dakota. Upper level analysis places trough pushing
through western North Dakota with strong vort max lifting ahead of
the main trough. Storms have quieted down over western North
Dakota, while strong storms remain further to the east.
For the rest of this afternoon into this evening...strong storms
will continue to push to the east. Over the James River Valley
into portions of south central North Dakota instability will
continue to increase to around 1-1.5 KJ/KG in an area of strong
deep layer shear. With strong large scale ascent in place due to
the aforementioned trough, storms will continue to develop and
push east through the afternoon, with possibly a few lingering
into the evening. Main threat at this point appears to be strong
wind gusts as a large bowing line continues to push east into the
James River Valley, though a few large hail reports will not be
out of the question. With some convection ahead of this with
increasing low level shear/helicity, a brief tornado or two cannot
be ruled out. Storms should push quickly to the east with only a
few lingering into the early evening hours.
On Thursday...quiet weather will start out the day before a short
wave sliding through broad cyclonic flow pushes into the area,
bringing shower and thunderstorm chances to much of the area.
Severe weather is not expected, though some small hail will not be
out of the question with weak instability expected to develop in
the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Unsettled weather continues through Friday as parade of short
waves continue to slide through broad cyclonic flow...bringing continued
shower/thunderstorm chances to many parts of the area. Ridge
builds in for Saturday into Sunday bringing dry conditions and
milder temperatures. An unsettled pattern re-develops to start the
upcoming week bringing a few shower chances and cooler
temperatures. Models are hinting at a stronger cool front sagging
into the area Monday into Tuesday, bringing notably cooler
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 953 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
VFR conditions expected at TAF sites through the forecast period.
Showers and thunderstorms have exited central ND. A few showers
from just east of KMOT to KBIS expected to dissipate this evening.
Otherwise mainly clear skies tonight with a westerly flow. Winds
shift southwest Thursday with increasing VFR cloudiness,
especially from KISN to KMOT in the late morning and afternoon.
&&
.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
950 PM MDT WED SEP 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 2016
The persistent east/nely wind this evening has caused some concern
regarding the advection of fog into the urban corridor overnight.
With this in mind...have added patchy fog in the grids for the
Urban Corridor in the 09-15z window late tngt and Thu morning.
UPDATE Issued at 905 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 2016
No changes overnight regarding the mountains and urban corridor
...but have updated to include areas of fog northeast and east of
Denver from around 09z and 15z Thursday. The latest RAP and NAM12
mdls show very high boundary layer rh at that time. Mdls keep this
out of the Denver area but could see the westward extent slip into
eastern portions of Weld County overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 407 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Drier air continues to spread over northern Colorado from the west
at low to mid levels, with high level moisture associated with
the decaying tropical system moving into New Mexico. Main change
with this forecast package will be to increase the high clouds and
hold onto them longer as it looks like the north edge of this will
not move much overnight and then slide east during the day. Don`t
think this will have too much impact on temperatures, we may be a
little too cool tonight if the cloud deck thickens. Mesoscale
models have occasionally hinted at some convection starting at
midnight along the old frontal boundary somewhere in Southeast/East
Central or bordering areas of Kansas. No consistency though.
Threat appears to be mainly east of our area.
Hints of being slightly warmer and drier tomorrow but really not
much of a change. Winds aloft pick up a bit which may translate to
the windier mountain areas being a bit stronger. See fire weather
discussion below.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Next upper level trof will sweep across the region late Thursday
and Friday as associated cold front drops over the plains late
Thursday night and Friday morning. Airmass with this next system
is relatively dry but could be a few showers near the far NE
corner of Colorado Thursday night. Cooler temperatures behind the
front for Friday afternoon with readings back in the 70s across
lower elevations.
There will be a dry West to Northwest flow pattern for this
weekend with a dry day for entire cwa on Saturday. Some return
moisture on Sunday as flow aloft shifts a bit back more from the
Southwest. Could be isolated late day storms for the mountains and
elevated fire danger for the mountains by Sunday afternoon,
especially for the high mountain parks.
By early next week next upper trof will dig into the Great Basin
while cold front drops into Northeast plains on Monday. This will
increase storm chances in the mountains Monday afternoon and
Tuesday. Should see increased chances on the plains for showers as
well but higher stability may keep shower chances on the low side.
will maintain low pops for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 944 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Persistent east/northeasterly winds this evening could allow for
some fog to advect westward into the Denver areas overnight. Not
entirely sold on this since the mdls keep most of the mstr north
and east of Denver. Have added patchy fog in the public zones and
may address adding a sct stratus deck or vcfg in the tafs at the
next issuance. Main area of concern will be in the 09-15z window.
Primarily for KBJC and KDEN. Outside of this window...VFR
conditions will prevail.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 407 PM MDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Overall similar conditions expected on Thursday. It will be a
little warmer and drier in most areas. There may also be a little
more wind across the northern mountains. This will again put the
areas close to the Wyoming border near red flag criteria. Grand
county and areas south of the Poudre River look to have lighter
winds, and fuels are not as dry in those areas either, so most
places look marginal for a warning. We will again defer to the
overnight shift to determine if we need a warning for Thursday.
&&
.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Cooper
FIRE WEATHER...Gimmestad
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
936 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through tonight providing
a dry and unseasonably warm night. Low pressure tracking eastward
across the Great lakes will move into southern Quebec by Thursday
evening. A trailing cold front will interact with prevailing very
warm and humid air Thursday to generate the potential for
scattered afternoon and evening showers across Northern New York
and Vermont. Drier weather returns for Friday with slightly
cooler temperatures. A more vigorous upper low and cold front
approaching from the west will bring widespread showers and
potential thunderstorms Saturday night into early Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 936 PM EDT Wednesday...The forecast generally remains in
good shape as of 930 pm. Some modest upward adjustment to pops,
mainly across St Lawrence County were made to account for current
convective trends through the late evening/overnight hours. Leaned
towards latest HRRR output which appears to be handling current
activity reasonably. Little instability further east and given
mean southwesterly flow aloft feel rain chances east of a Malone
to Saranac Lake line remain negligible overnight. General trends
in temperatures, sky cover and winds remain on track. Only other
minor concern will be eventual coverage of br/fg currently in the
forecast across eastern portions of VT. If thicker/debris clouds
from upstream convection continue to advect east as current trends
indicate, then overall coverage may be less. Time will tell. Have
a great night.
Prior discussion from 354 PM EDT Wednesday...
Synoptic pattern features remnants of Hermine with low-level
circulation quasi- stationary about 120MI south of Block Island.
There remains some low-level clouds extending northward into the
CT River Valley associated with marine modified air mass, which is
keeping the temperatures a bit cooler in ern VT. To the west,
850mb thermal ridge (+15 to +16C) firmly in place across nwrn VT
and nrn NY with afternoon valley temps climbing into the mid-upper
80s (generally 10-15F above climo mean) with weak flow aloft. Band
of faster mid- upper level flow exists across the upper MS river
valley newd across the nrn Great Lakes into nrn Ontario, near a
frontal zone across the nrn Great Lakes. Expectation is for a wave
low to form along the sfc front overnight vcnty of nrn lower MI,
and track enewd rea/ching swrn Quebec by 18Z Thursday. A weak
trailing cold front will push into nrn NY by late afternoon, and
across VT during the evening hours, as upper ridge breaks down and
stronger mid-level flow and height falls impinge on the North
Country.
Tonight: Generally quiet wx and unseasonably mild. Surface low
making its way ewd across the northern Great Lakes region will
maintain light S-SW surface winds, especially in the Champlain and
St. Lawrence Valleys. Given 850mb temps of +16 to +17C and some
continued low-level mixing, will see very mild conditions for early
September away from sheltered valley locations. Looking for lows in
the upper 60s in the Champlain Valley, with low-mid 60s elsewhere
(and isold 50s in the Adirondacks and far nern VT). A few
afternoon/evening showers vcnty of the Ottawa Valley and north of
Lake Ontario at 1930Z will expand in coverage next several hours,
and may drift into the St. Lawrence Valley late evening/overnight
while dissipating due to prevailing ridge and anticyclonic flow
aloft across our region. Mentioned just a slight chance -SHRA for
St. Lawrence County tonight. Otherwise, will see some mid- level
clouds moving ewd across nrn NY. This should preclude much fog
across nrn NY, but anticipate patchy dense fog in the favored
valleys of central and ern VT.
Thursday: Another unseasonably warm day with low-level theta-E
axis across the North Country as sfc low tracks north of
international border. Should see valley highs in the mid-upr 80s.
Will be a bit more breezy as well with S-SW gradient winds 10-20
mph, with gusts to 25 mph. 12Z NAM shows 40-50kt 850-mb low-level
jet across the St. Lawrence valley at 21Z Thursday, and some
higher surface gusts to 35 mph can be expected with valley
channeled flow late in the day across far nrn NY. Convective
potential will increase with sfc trough/weak cold front crossing
the region 20-03Z. Mesoscale models suggest convective
development across nrn NY, tracking ewd into VT around 00Z. Mid-
level lapse rates are weak (6C/km), but hot PBL and dewpoints
rising into the upr 60s (low 70s St. Lawrence Valley) should
contribute to MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg. Likewise, PW values increase
to around 2". High freezing levels should limit hail threat, but
some locally heavy downpours are possible with stronger cores,
along with some gusty winds. Storms should generally be sub-
severe.
Thursday night: Surface trough and lingering convective activity
gradually clears the area from west- east during Thursday night,
with just a slight chance of a shower after 06Z Friday. Lows
Thursday night generally in the low- mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...rather benign weather day expected.
high pressure moves in during the day, and with ridging aloft it
will eventually become mostly sunny. could be some lingering
clouds (a few sprinkles too?) across northern/northeast Vermont in
the morning. Otherwise lower dewpoints and a smidge cooler (but
still nearly 10 degrees above normal) temperatures expected.
Overnight, mostly clear and calm. Should see patchy fog across the
region as temperatures are expected to fall into 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...Primary forecast challenge for the
period is a potent fall-like system that will roll through the
area late Saturday through early Sunday. 12z guidance suite is in
decent agreement with the "big picture" elements, but of course
differ on some of the smaller details. After that system, we`ll
have a couple of quiet days featuring temperatures closer to
normal. We may be dealing with another little front sometime mid
week, however by that point there are significant differences
between the GFS and ECMWF, so confidence is much lower by that
point. Daily details below:
Saturday: GFS and NAM indicate that the day starts of dry with
sunshine, followed by increasing clouds with most of the showers
holding off until late afternoon. 12z ECMWF is about 6 hours quicker
with the clouds and showers. At this point, stayed closer to the
GFS/NAM solution for timing. Periods of showers will push across
Saturday night, and with some elevated instability, isolated
thunderstorms are not out of the question. A narrow ribbon of very
moist air (precipitable water values around 2") will also exist,
suggesting that some downpours are possible. Think overall
rainfall totals will range from 0.5" to 1.0" (with some
orographics playing a role).
The other aspect of this system, and what makes it look more
"fall-like", will be a strong low-level jet. Some differences in
the models, but we should have 850mb winds increasing to 45-50kt
by Saturday evening. Even 40kts at 925mb is possible. As is fairly
common, the strongest winds will come at the time of the
precipitation, so boundary layer stability will minimize how much
of that wind will make it to the surface. That said, channeling up
the Champlain Valley and to an extent the St Lawrence Valley
should result in gusts 20-30mph from late Saturday afternoon to
mid-evening prior. Models struggle with depicting such details, so
I tried my best to incorporate some of that into the gridded
forecast. Later forecasts will have to fine tune those details.
Sunday: surface front will be pushing through the region fairly
quickly during the early morning hours on Sunday. With the front,
winds will shift west/northwest and drier air will start to filter
in. Could be some residual showers during the morning, but
eventually I suspect most of the region will end up with a good
deal of sun by afternoon. Boundary layer becomes well mixed up,
and with still some brisk winds aloft, we`ll see some gusty winds
develop in the afternoon. Could be 20-25mph gusts, perhaps pushing
30 mph along the eastern sides of the `Dacks and Greens. Stuck
with model blend for highs, so most of the region will be in the
70s (and still a few degrees above normal).
Monday/Tuesday: Both days still look dry. GFS appears a little
more agressive in bringing a front to our north near the St
Lawrence Valley late in the day. Expect high pressure to win out.
Still a few degrees above normal both days. Overnight lows mostly
50s and highs in the 70s.
Wednesday: big model differences. GFS swings a front through the
region early in the day with highs only in the 60s. ECMWF keeps
it north of the border the whole time with highs pushing 80.
Let`s just go with a chance of showers and highs in the 70s and
take it with a grain of salt.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z Friday...A ridge of high pressure both aloft and at
the surface continues to provide our taf sites with light winds
and vfr conditions tonight. A weakening area of showers this
evening entering the Saint Lawrence Valley will dissipate from dry
air aloft and limited instability. Maybe a sprinkle at mss.
Thinking clouds and some low level winds will limit fog/br at
slk/mss...but lighter winds and less clouds at mpv should result
in vlifr conditions with fog between 07-11z. Winds and clouds
toward morning will lift fog deck quicker than previous couple of
mornings. Gradient increases ahead of cold front with breezy
southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected at mss/slk/btv on
Thursday...along with increasing chances for showers/storms after
18z. a brief period of mvfr cigs/vis possible in heavier
convective elements.
Outlook 00z Friday through Monday...Showers shift east of taf
sites by 06z...with bl mixing and leftover clouds limited fog/br
potential on friday morning. Vfr with high pres expected on
Friday...before next system arrives on Saturday into Sunday with
showers and embedded storms. Periods of mvfr cigs are likely in
the mountain taf sites over the weekend...along with breezy south
winds on Saturday. Areas of fog with light winds and clear skies
is likely on Monday morning.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...JMG/Banacos
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Taber
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1148 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The strong ridge aloft over the MS/OH valleys will keep us much
warmer than normal through the end of the week. Muggy air will
stick around until a cold front passes this weekend. After a day
or two of seasonable temperatures Sunday and Monday another warm-
up will occur.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A narrow N-S line of showers and thunderstorms extends from the
NY border south to Gettysburg. The convection exists on the
leading edge of the instability gradient in some weak low level
moisture convergence.
The HRRR shows this area of rain continuing to settle south with
renewed convection developing over the west after midnight. Am
still dubious since the model has more convection upstream than
what exists at this hour. Still keeping relatively low pops given
the small confidence, favoring the ARW/NMM solutions for the
overnight.
High dewpoints and light winds favor some overnight fog and haze.
Thicker in areas that got some rain. It will be a very warm
overnight for September.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Potential for lingering convection in morning in south-central PA.
Key signal tomorrow is simple hazy, hot, and humid. The 850 hPa
temperatures peak over 20C over portions of east-central PA with
widespread values of 18C over nearly all of PA.
The larger scale models imply all overnight convection is over
Thursday AM and most of the day is dry. But the GEFS and other
models imply new convection could develop in west/northwestern
areas in the afternoon and early evening. Kept highest POPS in
afternoon in that region.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
In general, heights are forecast to be rising over the Eastern
U.S. early in the period ahead of a mid-scale trof
developing/digging over the northern Plains. This trof is forecast
to swing through the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic regions
over the weekend, with the subtropical ridge rebuilding early next
week.
Within the generally rising heights, multiple shortwaves will move eastward
across the northern tier of the CONUS...bringing an increase in
the chances for showers/thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. The
above mentioned Northern Plains trof and associated surface cold
front is advertised for later Saturday into early Sunday. This
should support the hiest chances of pcpn during the period.
Behind the front, a return to dry weather is in store. It will
be noticeably cooler on Monday, but then turn warm again Tuesday
and Wednesday as the upper ridge rebuilds northward.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The showers and thunderstorms this evening are split up into two
different modes of convection. The line to the east considers to
fade but is associated with a boundary from the low off the east
coast and the ridge of high pressure currently building over the
mid Atlantic. So it is moving very slowly and most if not all
lightning has faded, though SHRA with MVFR cigs and vsbys remain
possible at MDT and LNS through 06Z.
The storms in the Northeast are out ahead of the in coming trough
and moving through some zonal flow with a west northwest
direction. TSRA with MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys will be probable
at BFD between 05Z to 06Z with VCTS from 04Z to 07Z.
Behind these systems and given the rain and the light winds
overnight, expect that MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys are possible
overnight. Expect cigs and vsbys to begin to decrease between 06Z
to 08Z and continue to shortly after sunrise. In some areas,
mainly BFD, MVFR should continue until around midday.
Outlook...
Thu...Patchy AM fog likely. Isold PM tsra impacts possible,
mainly southwest-south central areas.
Fri...AM low cigs possible w mtns.
Sat...Isold PM tsra impacts possible, mainly w mtns.
Sun...AM log cigs possible w mtns.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Records today: IPT=95 and MDT=96.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...La Corte/Gartner
AVIATION...Ceru
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
645 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 406 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
.Tonight...Lingering showers and thunderstorms and the potential for
fog development were the main focus tonight. Surface boundary still
remains across southern Minnesota into northwest Iowa and extends
west through central Nebraska. The 07.18z and 07.19z HRRR have a
good handle on convective trends this afternoon into tonight. The
heavy rain threat still exist over the eastern to southeast portions
of the forecast area tonight where the better moisture convergence
and forcing for ascent is located. Plenty of moisture remains in the
atmosphere ahead of the frontal boundary slated to push through the
CWA between 03-09z tonight. PWATs near 2.0 inches, warm layer cloud
depths approaching 4000-4500 meters, and decent moisture transport
persist over the east-southeast sections of the CWA through at least
03z Thursday. Expanded the flash flood watch a tier of counties
south and kept it going as far north as Waterloo. Further west and
north, not anticipated much additional heavy rain this evening. Fog
looks possible across the north in the location of the heavy rain
last night. Inversion looks to develop by 09z Thursday as the
surface high builds into the state providing enough clearing to
allow for radiational cooling to cause some patchy fog.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Wednesday/
Issued at 406 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Precipitation is expected to move south of the the area by
Thursday morning as much drier air arrives with high pressure
moving in from the west. High temperatures will be in the 70s
north to low to mid 80s south. Thursday evening through Friday
central Iowa will have the potential to be impacted by 2 systems.
The first is the remnants of Hurricane Newton and the other is a
strong short wave trough moving into from the northwest. Return
flow and strong theta-e advection will begin lifting back into
western Iowa Thursday evening and as this occurs moisture
associated with Newton will begin to arrive. The trough
approaching from the west and a cold front at the surface will have
an impact how far northwest the remnants of Newton are able to
get. Thunderstorms are expected over southeast Iowa with the
moisture from the south and additional storms over the northwest
half of the state along the boundary and upper level trough
arrival. The activity to the northwest will spread south/southeast
through the day and evening as the upper wave arrives. A few
severe storms and heavy rainfall will again be possible especially
during the afternoon and evening hours as the strongest forcing
arrives. The primary severe weather threat will be damaging wind
gusts. PWAT values again will be over 2 inches. Storm motions will
be parallel to the boundary again however motions do look more
progressive in the 30 to 40 mph range which may limit rainfall.
Still extreme rainfall rates may occur.
High pressure moves in for Saturday and Sunday and lead to an
outstanding weekend. The next chance for thunderstorms arrives
Monday night through Tuesday with another boundary moving slowly
through Iowa. An another strong short wave trough will move
through Tuesday night into Wednesday and usher cooler weather to
the region.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening/
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through 06Z across
Southern/Eastern TAF locations then expect low cigs and reduced
vsbys in fog overnight. Conditions improve after 08/14z to VFR from
MVFR/IFR conditions.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for Black Hawk-
Boone-Bremer-Butler-Cerro Gordo-Franklin-Grundy-Hamilton-Hardin-
Jasper-Marshall-Polk-Poweshiek-Story-Tama-Worth-Wright.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Podrazik
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...FAB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1053 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Marine
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
A slow moving cold front will trigger several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms across the region through tonight. Locally heavy
rain and a few severe thunderstorms are possible. High pressure
will gradually move in later Thursday into Thursday night leading
to a slightly drier airmass. A strong wave of low pressure arrives
Friday night into Saturday with additional showers and
thunderstorms forecasted.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Based on recent weakening/diminishing trend on radar and latest
short term model guidance have cancelled the flood watch. High
PWATs near 2 inches remain over the region but the core of the
swly Low level jet of 35-45 kt which is currently overhead will be
moving off to the east overnight. Another wave of convection
currently over se IA and wrn IL may impact the I-94 corridor later
tonight. Have adjusted pops to account for the wave currently
departing the nrn cwfa and the next possible wave across the far
srn cwfa late tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 859 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Radar depicts outflow boundary racing ahead of convection now
moving into Kent County. Convection in general is more outflow
dominant and progressive which reduces the severe and flooding
threats. However, at least nuisance flooding will continue to be
likely in spots given very intense rainfall rates.
The back edge of this precipitation is more evident as it crosses
Lake Michigan and a time-lagged ensemble of recent operational
HRRR runs suggests most precipitation will be east of the area
before 2 am, with some residual showers and storms over I-94 into
the early morning hours. Have updated the forecast to reflect
these trends.
UPDATE Issued at 334 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Just updated the AFD to include the beach hazards statement.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Will maintain the current set of headlines with the Flood Watch
for much of the region. Pwat values are extremely high with values
up around 2.25 inches. Lcls are low and the structure of the cape
is mostly thin and deep. All this supports efficient rainfall
production with any cells. One shortwave is moving through MI
right now...with another over IA. Thus multiple lines of
convection are forecasted. A low level jet moves in tonight and
strengthens to around 50 knots. Unidirectional flow is seen above
850 mb tonight...so some training could occur. This will add to
the flood risk. Damaging winds possible in any stronger downdrafts
as the low level jet moves in. With decent 0 to 3 km Cape this
afternoon and evening...and stronger 0 to 1 km shear...there could
be an isolated tornado especially with some boundaries around.
With a stronger mid level wave moving in for Friday night...this
lift should trigger additional showers and thunderstorms...a few
of which could be strong to severe.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
A seasonably strong cold front will move through the state Friday
night. The low pushing the front through the cwa has strong upper
support. The ecmwf and gfs are in good agreement with the position
and strength of the supporting short wave. So, confidence is fairly
high that we`ll see showers and thunderstorms Friday night. Although
instability is not all that high, shear values ramp up from around
20 knots to 50 kts by Saturday morning. A few of the storms could be
strong given the shear values.
We`ll dry out later Saturday and Sunday as cooler and drier air
moves in. Highs will retreat to the mid 70s Saturday through Monday.
Lows Sunday night may fall into the 40s across the northern
cwa.
Another cold front will approach Tuesday. The upper support with it
isn`t as strong as the Friday night system, but could still give us
scattered storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
A round of showers and thunderstorms with impacts is moving into
the TAF sites at this time from the northwest. Another batch will
try to move in later tonight...but it appears that is if the main
impacts will east of a line from KLAN to KAZO. Low level moisture
will be increasing toward daybreak as the wind shifts. We could
see IFR clouds then. A drier west flow develops on Thursday...so
ceilings will gradually improve.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1053 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Since wave heights are currently only 1-3 per buoy obs, and since
the low level jet will be moving away overnight, have decided to
cancel the marine headlines. Did however keep the wave fcst in the
2-4 foot range where the headlines were in effect.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016
With pwat values over 2 inches...low lifted condensation levels
and thin deep cape...rainfall rates will be high in any
thunderstorms. The ground is already saturated from recent
rainfall...so runoff will be efficient. The flow above 850 mb is
mostly unidirectional this afternoon and tonight...so a few hours
of training is possible. As a result...will keep the flood watch
going. As for the larger rivers...it looks like it will take at
least 2 inches of basin average rainfall to trigger impacts. This
could happen so will need to monitor trends closely.
River rises are likely through the end of the week.
&&
.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meade
SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...Meade
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
949 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Hermine will weaken as it remains nearly stationary
south of New England through tonight. This system will dissipate
on Thursday as a cold front sweeps in from the west. The front
will cross the region Thursday night followed by high pressure on
Friday. High pressure will crest over the region Friday night and
will shift offshore on Saturday. Low pressure moving northeast out
of the Great Lakes Saturday night will drive a cold front through
the region on Sunday. High pressure will build in from the west
Sunday night and will shift offshore south of New England on
Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
947 pm Update: Very minor changes to match evening observations.
Fog has been slow to thicken /significantly slower than recent
NARRE-TL and HRRR forecasts/...with VSBYS lowest along the coast
and over the hilltops. At this time...ongoing SPS will be allowed
to continue and will hold off from a dense fog advisory.
734 pm Update: No significant changes to forecast thinking at this
time...with minor changes made to match early evening
observations. NARRE-TL/HRRR very bullish with bringing VSBYS down
this evening with sub one quarter mile values south and east of
the mountains. Statistical guidance is a bit less certain...
particularly away from the coast. Will watch the evolution over
the next 1-2 hours and determine whether if/where a dense fog
advisory is warranted.
506 PM Update: Minor adjustments primarily to sky
cover and PoPs as burst of afternoon shower activity along
northwestern fringe of low level stratus deck is now waning...with
just a few isolated showers left for the next 1-2 hours. Skies
northwest of this have partially cleared and expect this to
continue for a few hours before the stratus deck begins to expand
back north. Matched near term temperatures and dewpoints to late
afternoon observations.
Previous discussion below...
At 18z...a 1009 millibar low...the remnants of tropical cyclone
Hermine...was centered well south of Long Island. Moisture from
this decaying system continues to pinwheel into the forecast area
off the Atlantic. Stubborn low clouds have lingered today near the
coast in onshore flow and we`ll see ceilings lower along with
locally dense fog redeveloping overnight. Elsewhere...we`ve seen
varying amounts of clouds today and a wide range in temperatures.
In addition...the humid airmass has spawned a few instability
showers that should dissipate by early evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Another murky start to the day on Thursday...with fog locally
dense gradually lifting even along the coast. Skies should become
partly sunny and it will be a humid day. The remnants of Hermine
will be centered just south of Cape cod in the morning and should
dissipate as it slides northeastward in advance of a cold front
marching eastward from the Great Lakes. Scattered convection
should breakout across the mountains and Connecticut valley during
the afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower and mid
80s...but in the 70s across much of Maine given the cooler onshore
trajectory. The cold front will sweep east across the area
Thursday night accompanied by a weakening band of convection.
Can`t entirely rule out a few Thunderstorms with gusty winds
across the Connecticut valley Thursday evening. But overall
confidence is low for strong convection at this time. Lows will be
in the 60s with humid airmass and rainfall resulting in some fog
developing once again.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will depart to the east of the the region Friday
morning allowing for deep-layer drying to gradually take place.
Any lingering showers in the mountains will dissipate early.
Elsewhere, sunshine is expected. High pressure builds overhead
Friday night allowing for a fair weather night with areas of
valley fog. The only fly in the ointment could be a little bit
more cloud cover than advertised if a subtle short wave trough
advertised in some model guidance materializes. Either way it will
remain dry.
A warm front will sharpen up to our southwest on Saturday as a
rather vigorous short wave trough moves eastward across the Great
Lakes. Models are differing in the timing of the forcing with the
developing warm air advection pattern, with the 12z ECMWF moving
things along more quickly and subsequently allowing for a rainier
Saturday. This is a departure from its previous run and is faster
than most ensemble guidance. Will therefore go no higher than
slight chance during Saturday daytime at this time. However, will
continue to watch since the atmosphere will be moistening in a
high-height, tropical-like column with PWATS climbing during the
day. It might not take much to generate some showers with onshore
flow in the presence of lowering condensation pressure deficits.
The short wave trough across the lakes will will move quickly
eastward Saturday night as attendant SFC low pressure moves up
into Quebec. Showers will become more numerous overnight. While
the timing of the short wave trough and cold front is not overly
conducive for thunderstorms, the forcing for ascent available
(good jet dynamics) working in tandem with a relatively high
theta-e air mass should allow for a few thunderstorms Saturday
night. Even the low-res version of the ECMWF is progging Showalter
indices between -1 and -4C and K-indices AOA 38 which is a good
indication of potential thunder. Heavy downpours would be likely
as PWAT values spike to AOA 1.8 inches along with impressive warm
cloud depths.
The cold front sweeps offshore Sunday allowing for improving
conditions during the afternoon hours. High pressure then builds
in for Monday. High pressure should build in for Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Thursday night/...
Summary: Low pressure south of New England will promote continued
moist onshore flow /and poor flying conditions/ tonight before
lifting northeast on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front
that will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region
Thursday night.
Restrictions: Variable conditions at the moment...with IFR ongoing
at PWM...but sites to the north and west faring better with VFR in
many spots. This improvement will be brief as expanding stratus/fog
is expected tonight with widespread VLIFR/LIFR conditions expected.
Confidence is a bit higher on very low CIGS vs VSBYS...but both are
likely in most locations. Gradual improvement in flying conditions
is expected on Thursday...with most locations becoming VFR during
the afternoon hours. An arriving front will bring a threat of
showers and embedded thunderstorms Thursday night...with continued
humid low level airmass promoting another round of IFR stratus and
fog.
Winds: Winds will diminish to 5kts or less for the overnight before
becoming southerly 5-10kts for the day on Thursday...and continuing
through Thursday night.
LLWS: Strengthening southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold
front may bring a period of LLWS to the terminals Thursday night.
Thunder: There is some chance for thunderstorms by late Thursday HIE-
LEB...with this threat spreading east through New Hampshire and
western Maine Thursday evening.
Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Friday and Friday night
with high pressure. However, river valley fog with likely cause
lower conditions between 08z and 13z Saturday. Otherwise, expect
lowering conditions late Saturday afternoon and night as a warm
front approaches. Low clouds and showers should allow for several
hours of IFR conditions through perhaps 15z Sunday before things
clear out. LLWS not out of the question Saturday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /through Thursday night/...The persistent onshore flow
should keep seas just below 5 ft tonight outside the bays. Otherwise...the
easterly flow will gradually shift to southerly on Thursday ahead
of a cold front and increase. Based on BUFKIT forecast soundings
we should stay below 25 kt in gusts even outside the bays.
However...wave guidance gradually builds seas to 5 ft outside the
bays...and it`s likely we`ll reach marginal small craft conditions
outside the bays Thursday night just ahead of the cold front.
Long Term...Small craft conditions will be possible Saturday night
and Sunday ahead of and with passage of cold front.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Arnott
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Arnott/Ekster
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
909 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Showers and storms continue across northern portions of the CWA
this evening. As precip moves east, away from the front, it has
become weaker/diminishing in eastern IL. Believe this trend will
continue as satellite trends continue to show coldest tops always
staying back in southeast IA/northeast MO/western IL area. Main
sfc front also remains northwest of the CWA/state, so best
precip/highest pops will remain in northwest parts of CWA
remainder of the night. Will make some minor tweaks to the
grids/forecast tonight, but current forecast looks ok so will not
be sending out an update at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Main concern for this part of the forecast is with the timing of
convection. Latest radar mosaics showing thunderstorms increasing
west of the Mississippi River as they approach the eastern
Iowa/northeast Missouri borders, largely tracking east-northeast.
The storms are moving into an area with CAPE`s around 3000 J/kg and
precipitable waters around 1.9 inches, and should produce some
locally heavy rain as they clip the northwest part of the CWA this
afternoon. Additional storms are starting to increase along the
southern border of Iowa as well, and the HRRR draws the overall line
into a more west-east configuration this evening, gradually settling
southward toward the I-72 corridor. Risk of severe weather is
borderline with bulk shear on the low side (increasing to around 30
knots), but can`t rule out a couple strong wind gusts this afternoon
and evening.
By Thursday, main focus for storms will be along and south of I-72,
as the frontal boundary that has taken up residence to our northwest
finally gets booted our way with the incoming upper wave. Some
variability on how fast the front passes, but most models agree on
drier weather over the northern CWA by mid to late morning.
Precipitable water values increase to around 2.25 inches over the
southern CWA so locally heavy rains still possible with the stronger
storms.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Stagnant pattern begins to break down as we move into the weekend.
Frontal system moving through area Thursday Night will rebound
northward Friday as the main 500 mb trough approaches Illinois.
Although not as high as Thursday as tropical moisture from Newton
moves across the Midwest, precip water values around 2 inches still
expected in the vicinity of the boundary likely producing locally
heavy rainfall. ESRL`s Atmospheric River website indicates strong
consistent integrated vapor transport through Friday. However, best
low-level forcing with the front is parallel with the moisture flow,
so it is unclear how widespread heavy rainfall will be. Will likely
be more coincident with mesoscale convective boundaries than a
widespread event. Still, local amounts of 2-4 inches may be possible
between now and Saturday morning. Although lapse rates will be
poor, moisture loading could lead to some strong winds with more
intense storms.
Models in reasonable agreement clearing the precip from the area
Saturday morning as the main trough energy pushes through the state.
Cold advection enables temps at 850 mb to drop 6-10C during the day
Saturday bringing highs below normal through the weekend.
Energy digs into the western U.S. again early next week leading to a
similar pattern redeveloping with moist southwest flow along a slow
moving frontal boundary moving southeast across the Midwest. A
little more push with this system as the low over the west cuts off
allowing for a more progressive northern stream than is in place
currently. GFS (12z)a bit faster than 00z ECMWF in moving precip
into the forecast area with GFS bringing rainfall to the area again
Tuesday. ECMWF holds off widespread rain until Tuesday Night and
Wednesday. Pretty high solution diversity evident in latest GEFS
runs so will go with a compromise solution on timing.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Line of broken showers and storms continues to move east across
central IL and should effect some of the TAF sites this evening.
Regional radar loop shows more showers and possible storms
advecting into IL later this evening/tonight so will have to keep
some form of VCTS or VCSH at PIA and BMI tonight. As the main
front drops slowly south, more predominate showers and storms will
move through the area effecting all TAFs, which will be mainly
after midnight. More scattered storms will be possible during the
morning, but thinking a break in the chance of pcpn should come
late morning through afternoon with cigs rising into the mid layer
cloud category. At PIA/BMI lower MVFR cigs and some scattered
showers seems possible and is forecasted by some models. Cig
heights throughout the period should be VFR at 4kft or higher.
Winds will be southwest through the period with speeds under
12kts.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Auten
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
920 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Circulation around the stalled Post-tropical storm Hermine will
provide shower chances over the Outer Banks and eastern portions
of the area today and Thursday. High pressure will then move in
providing calm weather through the weekend. A cold front will move
through the area Sunday night into early Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 920 PM Wednesday...Spokes of vorticity rotating around the
offshore remnants of Hermine helped to sustain strong convection
earlier today despite low level NW flow which usually inhibits
convective development. Late tonight another area of vorticity is
forecast to drop southeast across the area. This system appears to
be associated with a weakening area of convection currently over
south central VA with this activity forecast by the HRRR model to
enter Northeast NC around midnight then continue south mainly East
of Highway 17 and will continue to handle this with 20-30% PoPs.
Light W/SW flow will help to maintain mild overnight lows ranging
from around 70 inland to the mid 70s immediate coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...Short wave energy will continue
circulating around Post-tropical storm Hermine located off the
New Jersey coast. This will provide sufficient instability for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to form over the Outer Banks
and coastal waters mostly north of Cape Hatteras. A few showers
may spread farther west towards mainland Hyde and Dare counties.
Places farther west will remain dry.
High temperatures will be similar to Wednesday, in the upper 80s
to low 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wed...Above normal temps with mostly dry weather
expected through the early weekend. A cold front will approach the
region this weekend with isolated to scattered showers/storms
Sunday into Wednesday.
Surface high pressure and upper ridge will continue to be the
dominant features through Saturday...with pred dry weather. Low
level thickness values support above normal temps with highs in
the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the 70s most nights.
A modest cold front will approach from the NW this weekend. Models
now in better agreement pushing the front through Sunday night
into early Monday. High pressure will build in north Monday and
extend into the area through mid-week...as front remains stalled
south of the area. Similar to previous runs, the GFS depicts a
much drier airmass behind the front while the ECMWF keeps more
moisture across the area. Isolated to scattered showers/tstms
possible Sunday into Wednesday...mainly diurnally driven. Will
continue to cap pops at low chance. Temps slightly cooler behind
the front with low level NE/E flow, with highs dropping into the
low/mid 80s Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 700 PM Wednesday...VFR conditions expected through the TAF
period. Expecting some shower activity to develop after midnight
but should occur mainly east of the TAF sites. There will be
enough of a gradient to support a light SW flow overnight which
should inhibit fog formation. High based debris clouds are
expected to continue to stream across the area. Expecting shower
activity threat to remain east of the TAF sites Thursday.
Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 230 PM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Isolated to widely scattered showers expected Sunday and
Monday, with brief period of sub-VFR possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 920 PM Wednesday...Winds will continue out of the SW 10 to
15 KT with some gusts to 20 knots tonight into Thursday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected after midnight over the
northern and central waters. Seas will mainly be 2 to 4 feet with
some 5 foot waves possible over the outer central waters.
Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 230 PM Wed...SW winds 10-20 knots across the waters through
Sat night with seas 2-4 feet, locally up to around 5ft Thu night
on outer central waters. A cold front will approach the waters
Sunday, with models pushing it Sunday night into early Monday. The
GFS continues to show a stronger NE surge behind it, so will
continue to watch that...but will continue flow becoming E/NE 5-15
kt with seas 2-3 feet Monday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SGK
NEAR TERM...JME/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD/SGK
MARINE...JME/CQD/SGK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
614 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Updated to include 00Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Strong shortwave near Bismark this afternoon and its associated PV
boot rotating around the south end of it are the main concern during
the short term. These features are also within the left exit region
of a 120kt jet streak nosing into SW MN, so the forcing is strong to
say the least. Short term CAMs have actually had a decent handle on
this activity today, so followed the HRRR/HopWRF fairly closely for
timing storms in, which look to arrive in our western CWA shortly
after 6 pm. Cloud cover has limited heating, but dewpoints in the
mid/upper 60s and some partial clearing in SW MN has allowed around
1000 j/kg of MLCAPE to develop. Deep layer shear is more than ample
with 50 kts of 0-6km shear to support organized severe convection.
CAMs have been pretty persistent with a linear storm mode for us,
which means the primary threat will be strong winds. Flash flooding
isn`t too much of a concern either as storm motion will be 40+ mph.
Main question still with this potential squall line is its southern
extent. The HRRR basically has it all the way down to I-90, but WSW
to ENE orientation of 850-500 thickness lines along with upper and
llj forcing heading toward northern MN, believe storms will end up
about as far south as the Twin Cities metro. As this line heads for
western WI, it will be in quite the diminishing phase as it gets
farther and farther from the main forcing that will be heading for
the arrowhead. As for the greatest severe risk, the extent of the
marginal risk in the most recent day 1 convective outlook from the
SPC covers where the wind threat will be through tonight.
For Thursday, we get a much needed break from the wet weather and
will see the sun as well as high pressure currently over the
northern Rockies goes from SD toward Chicago. Really only area of
uncertainty with the forecast for tomorrow is with the dewpoints as
boundary layer dewpoints from the GFS and NAM continue to indicate
the potential for mixing dewpoints down into at least the lower 40s
in western MN.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 413 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
By Thursday night, the upper level pattern will consist of a broad
longwave trough from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes
region, with shortwave energy embedded in the flow. A weak surface
low will advance east through the Dakotas Thursday night through
Friday morning. It certainly appears that the main source of
forcing with the surface low and the vorticity advection in
association with the upper trough will advance east across northern
MN. There is still potential for precipitation in central MN but is
trending downward. Farther to the south, warm air advection and low
level moisture convergence is still forecast during this same time
period across parts of the Midwest, and still expect precipitation
to be possible into far southern MN in association with this
activity. Overall, this setup is trending for central MN and
western WI to end up split between two areas of focused
precipitation, although light showers could still move through the
area. The likelihood of significant QPF is diminishing.
The cold front associated with the aforementioned surface low will
pass through the area on Friday with high pressure filling in behind
it form the west and the upper trough becoming compact and centered
over our area by Saturday morning. Cooler temperatures will
spread across the upper midwest under said trough.
As the ridge of high pressure moves off to our east Sunday,
southwesterly winds develop and we`ll see a slight warm up Sunday
and Monday. A stronger cold front looks to move through on Monday
and cool air quickly fills in behind it as highs Tuesday should top
out in the mid 60s. Lows next Tuesday night could drop into the
lower 40s in parts of the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Sep 7 2016
Primary concern through the period will be convection that is
expected to move through the area this evening into the overnight
hours. Individual storms will be moving northeast, but an MCS
should develop and have a more eastward movement. Many of the
CAMs, including the HRRR and HopWRF members, show a decent linear
system with a southern extent which would impact nearly all TAF
sites. However, thus far things have not been able to organize
into an MCS, so will need to see how things evolve over the next
few hours. The best forcing from the upper shortwave will go to
our north, but there is instability in place ahead of the
approaching cold front, along with sufficient deep layer shear for
storm organization. We could have some lower clouds around after
any storms until the front moves through the area late
tonight/tomorrow morning.
KMSP...Main uncertainty is with the occurrence and timing of
convection this evening. Model consensus and trends point toward a
window of 03-05Z, so went with that for now, and will amend as
needed. There is the potential for some MVFR ceilings after any
showers/storms occur, which would then hang around until the front
comes through and scours things out.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thursday Overnight...VFR. South wind 5 to 15 kt.
Friday...MVFR possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Southwest wind 10 to 15 kt becoming west.
Friday night...VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 kt.
Saturday...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 15 kt.
Saturday Night...VFR. West wind less than 10 kt becoming southwest
10 to 15 kt.
Sunday...VFR. Southwest wind increasing to 15 to 25 kt.
&&
.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
946 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening low pressure system still east of the New Jersey coast
will slowly move farther away into Thursday. High pressure then
builds to our south into the weekend, however a weakening front is
anticipated to arrive Thursday night and Friday. A stronger cold
front then arrives Saturday night into Sunday, following by high
pressure Monday into Tuesday. The next cold front approaches later
Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Tonight...Fair. Above normal temps (about 8-10F above normal)
continue and that should be the theme (above normal) for much of
the rest of the month of September in this zonal flow with
occasionally ridging in the northeast USA as short waves pass
through the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms in the building pwat to 2
inches may drift across the southern edge of the Delmarva but have
cut blended pops.
Fcst basis is 50 50 blended 12z/7 gfs/nam mos.
Made some minor adjustments to cloud cover. ALso adjust pops
upward acrs the far west as there are some shwrs that are still
maintaining and HRRR indicates they will linger for at least a few
hours. Beyond that, we had pops already in. Guid is less bullish
but left them for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HOT...and most CLI stations fcst within 2F of record. Mid 90s
in PHl and issued heat advisory for ILG-PHL-TTN metro. NAM and
GFS both have 2m temps 94-95 EC about 90. Think PHL is solid for
95 and possibly 96-97 because of recent dryness. Ditto adding on
another 1-2F to blended max T elsewhere for recent dryness. GFS
seems to have a slight cool bias recently on its dewpoints but
looked good today at 18z. Think we should favor lower 70s dewpoints
which matched last nights ECMWF except down to 70 at PHL.
Also expanded the heat advy west and south of PHL metro. It may be
that we need to expand the heat advy to portions of central and
southern NJ not included now.
Small chance of a thunderstorm in PWAT of 2 inches but overall sounding
in 1000-500 thickness of 580dm appears not be enough (nor much
lift) to permit tstms. However, this needs reconsideration on
future shifts.
FCST basis: 50 50 blended 12z/7 nam/mos guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Summary...Stretch of hot and humid conditions through Saturday (near
record highs in some areas), then cooling with lower humidity Sunday
into early next week. Not many chances for rainfall.
The synoptic setup is comprised of a building ridge across the
southern states Friday, which then shifts eastward some Saturday. A
trough in the Midwest then shifts eastward Saturday before lifting
across the Northeast Sunday as it weakens. The flow aloft then turns
zonal for a brief time before a trough amplifies across the west.
Meanwhile, a ridge starts to build across the southeastern states
during the first half of next week. This overall pattern looks to
not offer much in the way of rain chances, although there are some.
We used a model blend Thursday night into Sunday, then generally
blended the 12z WPC Guidance into continuity thereafter. Some
adjustments were then made following additional collaboration with
our neighboring offices.
For Thursday night through Saturday...A weakening front will settle
into our area Thursday night and then tend to slowly dissipate
during Friday. There does not look to be much in the way of forcing
across our area, therefore upstream convection may tend to weaken as
it enters our area Thursday night. Therefore, kept the highest POPs
(chance across the northwestern zones). While the boundary itself
may dissipate, there may still be a subtle wind shift in the
vicinity. Some of the guidance brings some short wave energy
eastward out of the Ohio Valley later Friday into Saturday morning,
with some convection tied to it. This could potentially be
convectively induced, although there is a wind shift noted in some
of the model guidance at 850 mb with a shot of warm air advection
shifting offshore Thursday night and Friday (possible warm front
developing northward). Our confidence on this feature is not all
that high, therefore just added some slight chance POPs in for now
Friday night. If this feature actually is present, that could add
more clouds to the mix Saturday for a time and possibly slow the
warming. We still think there will be plenty of heating Saturday
with also a warm start, therefore stayed closer to continuity.
Overall though, the flow should start to back to the southwest
during Saturday ahead of a stronger cold front resulting in heat and
humidity. As the weakening boundary is draped across our area
Friday, a bit of cooling aloft along with some lower surface dew
points are anticipated especially from about the I-95 corridor on
north and west. The ground is dry though and may allow temperatures
to be a bit warmer, therefore did go a little above the model blend.
It does look hotter Saturday ahead of a stronger front. Based on
this and the heat indices mainly falling under 100 degrees in many
areas, we opted to hold off on heat related headlines. As of now,
Saturday looks to be the better day for a heat advisory as long as
cloud cover does not disrupt/slow the warming.
For Sunday through Wednesday...An upper-level trough pushes across
the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Sunday, driving a surface cold front
offshore. This will end any showers/thunderstorms in the morning
Sunday with cooler and less humid air moving in. As the trough lifts
out Sunday night, the flow backs to more zonal. This occurs as
surface high pressure builds in and lingers through Monday before
shifting offshore. A return flow then sets up Tuesday and Wednesday,
with the next trough sliding across the Great Lakes to the
Northeast. This will allow for a cold front to arrive later
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...VFR clear or sct clouds above 5000 ft. possible MVFR
conditions in patchy fog late at night. nearly calm wind. Pls see
TAFS for details. Small chc of a thunderstorm during the night
south of KILG.
Thursday...VFR sct clouds aoa 5000 ft. west to southwest wind with
gusts to 15 kt. Small chc of an afternoon thunderstorm in the hot
unstable airmass but not enough confidence to forecast at this
time.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Some showers and
thunderstorms are possible Friday night and then again Saturday
night. Our confidence however with the timing and coverage is low.
Southwest to west winds mainly 10 knots or less into Friday, then
turning southerly for Saturday.
Sunday and Monday...VFR overall as high pressure builds in. West to
northwest winds around 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
sca has been lowered as wind and seas have dropped below criteria,
seas could still hover around 5 ft up north for a few hours.
General north to northwest flow today with most gusts under 18 kt.
Tonight...Winds and seas further subside. No marine related headline.
Thursday...west to southwest wind with gusts under 20 kt and no
marine related headline.
OUTLOOK...
The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory
criteria Thursday night through Monday. A weakening front arrives
Thursday night and Friday with southwesterly winds ahead of it. A
stronger cold front arrives Saturday night into Sunday, and the
southwest flow is forecast to increase some ahead of it with gusts
to around 20 knots. A wind shift to the west and northwest then
occurs Sunday into Monday as high pressure starts to build in.
RIP CURRENTS...
Wave heights have decreased faster than previously forecast.
Therefore, the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
for both the NJ Shore and the Delaware Beaches is expected to be
moderate through the day today. The risk should continue to
decrease on Thursday. The probable risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents on Thursday is low.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Heat (4-6 day heat wave) in progress as we go through this week.
Today: KILG already 2 days. PHL day 1.
Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday through
Saturday...the hottest days in this stretch.
Thursday- 9/8 Friday- 9/9 Saturday 9/10
------------- ----------- -------------
ACY 94-1939 92-1915 95-1983
PHL 96-1939 94-1884 97-1983
ILG 95-1939 94-1939, 1915 98-1983
ABE 97-1939 95-2015 96,1983
TTN 95-1939 93-1959 101,1983
GED 92-2015 92-2015, 1985 93,1985
RDG 96-1939 94-2015, 1959 100,1983
MPO 88-2015 88-1964 89,1983
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ060>062-
070-071-101>106.
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ015-
017>019.
DE...Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for DEZ001>003.
MD...Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Gorse
Near Term...Drag/Nierenberg
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Gorse
Aviation...Drag/Gorse
Marine...Drag/Gorse/Nierenberg
Climate...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
631 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions should prevail at most West Central Texas terminals
through the remainder of the evening and into the overnight hours.
After the earlier models mostly downplayed the possibilities of
MVFR low cloudiness, the latest HRRR is showing more low
cloudiness. Have opted to keep the mention of MVFR cigs in at the
southern terminals for a brief window starting around sunrise
Thursday morning. Otherwise, gusty south winds will prevail during
daylight hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)
The extension of the subtropical ridge into Texas will result in
mainly dry and warm conditions for our area through Thursday. Clear
to partly cloudy skies will prevail across the area overnight, with
lows in the lower and middle 70s. Some low cloud development is
possible across southern counties by daybreak but will scatter
out/dissipate by the mid morning hours. Expect another warm day on
Thursday under partly cloudy skies, with afternoon highs in the
lower and middle 90s. A few showers and thunderstorms may approach
far western counties by late afternoon and will keep slight POPs
intact generally west of a Haskell, Sterling City to Ozona line.
LONG TERM...
(Thursday night-Friday)
The strong polar jet will continue to assert itself across the
northern half of the U.S. through next Wednesday, enabling a
couple of cold fronts to push south into West Central Texas.
These fronts should bring chances of rain to the region this
weekend and again next Wednesday as plenty of tropical moisture
continues to flow into the area from the gulf.
But first, a remnant mid and upper trough associated with post
tropical cyclone Newton will move into Far West Texas Thursday
evening, forcing some monsoonal moisture into West Texas.
Moisture and lift associated with the mid and upper trough could
spark some isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
and evening along and north of a line from Ozona to San Angelo to
Coleman. Have expanded coverage of 20 Pops for Thursday evening
into Friday morning. Friday could be the warmest day of the week
just ahead of the front with highs in the low to mid 90s.
(Saturday-Wednesday)
A stronger shortwave trough, embedded within the strong polar jet
stream, moving east across the Central Plains, will push a cold
front to Interstate 20 by sunrise Saturday, and the I10 Corridor
by early Saturday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should
develop along and behind the front on Saturday into Sunday. A
northerly breeze will bring cooler afternoon highs on Saturday
into the 80s. Temperatures should climb into the upper 80s Sunday
and into the lower 90s by early next week.
Another cold front is progged by both the ECMWF and GFS into the
region by next Tuesday night into Wednesday. ECMWF is much
stronger and wetter compared to the GFS. For now, have introduced
mostly 20 Pops Tuesday night into Wednesday.
26
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 75 95 73 94 / 5 5 20 10
San Angelo 74 95 73 95 / 0 10 20 10
Junction 72 94 71 93 / 0 5 5 5
Brownwood 74 95 72 93 / 0 5 5 10
Sweetwater 74 94 73 93 / 10 20 20 20
Ozona 72 93 71 92 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
07
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
852 PM CDT WED SEP 7 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Latest satellite imagery show remnants of post tropical storm
Newton now near the AZ/NM border and embedded shortwaves within
the southwest flow aloft across the southern plains. Storms
approaching the SW portions of OK appear to be weakening and we
have lowered pops before midnight. Experimental HRRR doesn`t
suggest much if any precipitation overnight but will maintain low
pops just in case. Also have adjusted cloud/wind grids.
It still appears best chance for rain will be late Friday into
early Saturday morning associated with a surface cold front. Some
of the model guidance is indicating at least 1-3 inches of rain
with locally higher amounts through Saturday morning. After the
front clears the area on Saturday...the rest of the weekend looks
cooler and dry.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 76 89 76 91 / 20 50 50 40
FSM 76 92 76 93 / 0 20 30 10
MLC 77 93 76 93 / 0 20 20 10
BVO 75 87 71 88 / 30 60 50 50
FYV 74 85 71 88 / 10 50 40 20
BYV 73 87 72 87 / 0 50 50 20
MKO 74 90 73 91 / 10 50 30 20
MIO 75 86 73 89 / 20 60 60 50
F10 76 92 75 92 / 10 50 30 20
HHW 73 94 74 93 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
AVIATION....30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
545 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach later Thursday, then cross the region
Thursday night with a cold front. High pressure will build across
the region later Friday into Saturday. Another cold front will
cross Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
530 AM Update: Fog has become more dense alg the immediate coasts
of Hancock and Washington counties of Downeast Maine, so we issued
a dense fog adv for this ptn of the region til 9am EDT. Otherwise,
a band of shwrs has formed ovr far NW ME, as per advertised by the
HRRR model into post sunrise hrs. Current fcst is covering these
shwrs for now, so need to update attm. Otherwise, made minor chgs
to fcst hrly temps into the late morn hrs based on obsvd temps
from 2-5am across the region.
Orgnl Disc: Currently, some fog ovr Downeast areas, especially
along the immediate coast, with sct rn shwrs from Cntrl QB
brushing the the St John vly area. Fog should slowly lift ovr
Downeast areas later this morn and midday - last alg the immediate
coast. Meanwhile, we backed the tmg of heavier shwrs and any tstms
across the N til msly late this aftn and spcly to the erly to mid
eve hrs where shwrs should then spread SE into Cntrl and Downeast
areas as well. This based on the output of hrly HRRR model sim
radar ref, which was slower to bring shwrs into far nrn ptns of
the FA this morn and erly aftn. This seems to be supported by
latest real-time radar ref.
Otherwise, we did mention the potential of hvy rnfl with any
tstms. CAPE amounts look to be fairly modest later this aftn into
tngt, with most of this elevated, so any tstms should be low top.
With relatively fast W to E motion of any tstms, heavy downpours
should be brief. Total QPF with this event up to 12z Fri really
varies depending on what model you look at. For now, we took a
blend of many models with WPC 6 hrly QPF suggesting upwards to
nearly an inch ovr the St John vly region, with amounts tapering
downward fairly quickly swrd thru our region. Subsequently max
late eve and ovrngt PoPs with this event range from categorical N
to chc ovr Downeast areas for now. Due to greater cld cvr and more
srly component sfc winds, hi temps tdy will be a few deg cooler
than ystdy.
Shwrs should diminish and move E of the FA late tonight, leaving
in its wake cldy skies and patchy fog til the cold front crosses
durg the erly morn hrs Fri. Ovrngt lows will still be mild, but
not as warm as this past ngt.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, the weak shortwave and surface low will pull out of the
area in the morning. Will reduce pops very quickly early Friday
morning, but will be slow to take out the cloud cover due to
copious low level moisture and a frontal inversion in the north
half of the forecast area. This inversion led to lowering high temps
north to around 70F. Further south, the humidity and warmer temps
will hang on with 80F as the expected high in Bangor and
Ellsworth. The clouds will depart Friday night and radiational
cooling will produce reading in the 40s north and lower to mid 50s
in the southern half of the forecast area. Saturday will be less
humid across the entire area. An upper ridge and the surface ridge
will pass over the area. As the upper ridge crosses, expect higher
clouds to increase in the afternoon ahead of the next cold front.
Going with low to mid 70s for highs, but could go higher if clouds
don`t thicken in the afternoon. Will go up to high likely pops by
later Saturday night with the cold front and have bumped up lows
to around 60F with increasing humidity. There is nominal
instability aloft later in the night and have left isolated
thunderstorms in the forecast. Low clouds and some fog may roll
into the coastal zones during the night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front will cross early Sunday and introduce a more fall
like airmass. Most of the energy will pass well to the north of
the area and do not expect a lot of rainfall with this system.
Drier and less humid air will advect in during Sunday with
northwest winds potentially gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Skies will gradually clear through the day with clearing reaching
NE Aroostook by later in the day. Lows on Sunday night will drop
into the 40s north and low 50s for Bangor and the Down East
region. It could go even lower depending how fast the high builds. Humidity
will be much lower for early next week behind this front.
Temperatures will be in the 70s Monday and Tuesday as a warming SW
wind quickly arrives. The next front will start to affect the area
Tuesday night and will depart the area Wednesday night. Some
guidance is suggesting an anafrontal setup. Have gone with MOS
consensus guidance for Wednesday`s highs, but it could be very much
cooler.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly IFR to LIFR clgs and vsbys in ST/fog til mid
morning, then vsbys and clgs lift to high MVFR or low VFR by erly
aftn. Conditions then lower again to MVFR in shwrs his eve and to
IFR in shwrs/patchy fog late tngt
SHORT TERM: MVFR cigs are possible Friday morning...mostly for
northern sites. Conditions will be VFR for all terminals Friday
afternoon until Saturday evening. On Saturday evening, low clouds
and fog will roll north from the coast and cover the entire area
during the night. The low cigs will continue into Sunday morning
before VFR returns Sunday afternoon. It will be VFR Sunday night
and Monday for all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns anticipated, although wvs tdy thru tngt ovr
our outer MZs will apch 5 ft, mainly with mdt wv pds of 6.5 to 9.0
sec. This will produce a mdt rip current risk to our two main
swimming beaches tdy. Otherwise, marine ST and fog will prevail
tdy and tngt. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts thru
the near term.
SHORT TERM: Will continue with patchy fog over the waters Friday
as the humid air mass remains. Seas may be near SCA criteria on
Friday with 5 ft possible. However, confidence is not high at this
time. The next event is a possibility for thunderstorms later
Saturday night...following by the chance of a marginal SCA on
Sunday due to winds and seas.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
313 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered convection and near to just slightly above normal
temperatures continue again today. Upper disturbances will provide
potential for greater than normal coverage of showers and storms both
this weekend and again next week, with temperatures a few degrees
cooler.
Today...
A few showers are present across the marine zones and the
immediate coast, mostly around Matagorda Bay. Elsewhere, skies are
clear with localized spots of fog emerging. One more day like the
bulk of the week so far. Temperatures should be at or just above
normal again, along with heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.
Convection will be isolated to scattered in nature again, and most
probable nearest the seabreeze boundary. After getting cute with
the short term PoPs and winning a couple days ago, repeating
yesterday brought nothing but ruin as a flood advisory was issued
in a spot where slight chance PoPs were placed. Without any real
significant differences present in the environment in
mesoanalysis, there`s not much more confidence in trying to
specify higher potential locations beyond near the seabreeze. The
GFS, NAM, RAP and SREF suggest better column moisture from about
Harris County and eastward, but CAM guidance says the exact
opposite. It seems the safest course of action will be to be
fairly broadbrushed.
This weekend...
An upper trough working through the Great Lakes will also draw in
the remnants of Newton from the Desert Southwest, allowing for
rain along the cold front to our northwest. In the meantime, an
inverted trough aloft will make its way from the eastern Gulf to
the Texas coast before stalling out more or less on top of us.
The front still looks to wash out before reaching our area, but
the cooling aloft from the upper disturbances should allow for
more instability, and despite temperatures cooling slightly, would
expect more numerous shower and storm development this weekend,
albeit still scattered and showery in nature.
Next week...
The vorticity from the aforementioned trough will still be present
over our area as the work week begins, before slowly drifting down
the coast early next week. As this occurs, a `perky` trough -
energetic and very positive (tilted) - will push on the western
coast, leaving behind a cutoff low over the Sierra/western Great
Basin. As what`s left of the northern stream trough carries on
along the Canadian border, a weak subtropical ridge builds over
the southern US. The major implication for the surface is that the
front, removed from its upper support, grinds to a halt short of
our area, though it appears to come closer than the front this
weekend. Again, we should see scattered showers and storms,
greater in coverage than average, emerge from this. However,
models are notorious for handling these kind of evolutions poorly,
so decided to mostly splatter chance PoPs and near or slightly
below average temperatures across the week. There`s a fair chance
this may verify on its own - but if not, there has been narrowing
spread between the GFS and Euro that at least leaves hope that
more detail may be added to the forecast in the coming days.
Luchs
&&
.MARINE...
A continuation of light to occasionally moderate onshore winds
and low seas can be expected through the end of the week and over
the weekend. A disturbance moving into the region from the east at
the end of the week and lingering near the area over the weekend
and into the start of next week will bring an increase in shower
and thunderstorm chances. Winds and seas could be higher in and
near these storms. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 92 74 90 / 10 10 20 10 40
Houston (IAH) 93 75 90 75 91 / 30 10 40 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 89 80 88 / 20 20 40 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
441 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture and a series of upper level disturbances will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley as
a front move into the region from the north. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will remain in place through Saturday, until
a cold front clears through, bringing drier conditions on Sunday
and into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers and thunderstorms currently on going near the Indiana/
Illinois border this morning will slowly push east and weaken as
they approach the ILN CWA (weakening already observed on IR).
Have increased PoPs across our far northwest counties for this
morning but the rest of the area will likely have to wait until
this afternoon to see rainfall. A shortwave can currently be seen
over Kansas this morning which has started to fire convection and
is forecasted to move over the area later this afternoon. PWATS on
the RAP/ HRRR/ GFS/ and NAM all go over 2.00" by dinner time with
k index values in the mid 30s at times. Have increased PoPs for
this afternoon into evening as confidence is growing.
RAP and HRRR soundings also indicate sfc delta theta-e values
around -25 at times this afternoon. Values on the GFS and NAM are
less. Still though, forecast soundings are completely saturated
at this time (PWATs approaching max values for this time of year)
so can`t rule out isolated strong to severe wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall. SPC also has us in a marginal risk today and given
the above have included a mention in the HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
This evening showers and thunderstorms will be on going thanks to
the shortwave and weak 850 convergence but will likely push
southeast and weaken as they move out of the area late tonight. As
this is happening an upper level shortwave over southern Canada
will swing east bringing a weak front into the area Friday
morning. Models have come into fairly good agreement with this and
stall the front across the northern parts of the CWA. Much drier
PWAT air will then skirt across the northern portions of the CWA.
Exactly how far south the lower PWAT air makes it is still
unclear. The NAM pushes the drier air furthest south while the GFS
and ECMWF hold it just barely across the the northern fringes of
the CWA.
Forecast soundings for our northern sites show a wedge of dry air
around 700 mb which will likely bring a temporary end to the
precip across the north (PWATS around 1.4"). Closer towards
Cincinnati PWATs remain above 2.00". Friday afternoon a strong
shortwave will move into the area allowing the stationary front to
head north as a warm front. 2.0"+ PWATs will again spill north
with strong lift occurring over the area as PVA and WAA work in
tandem. General consensus for greatest chance of heavy rain looks
to be over Indiana late Friday afternoon into early Saturday
morning. The day 3 excessive rainfall outlook from WPC highlights
the general thinking described above with a slight risk for this
time period mainly over Illinois and Indiana with a marginal risk
for our western counties. Either way, rain appears likely across
our western zones Friday evening into early Saturday morning.
Late Saturday morning the area should get a brief break as the
shortwave exits northeast leaving weak subsidence in its wake. A
strong shortwave trough will be pushing into Minnesota Saturday
morning though and will be dragging a surface cold front east with
it. The cold front will cross through the area late Saturday
afternoon into evening. Ahead of the front PWATs will be high but
not as high as in previous days. Forecast soundings on the GFS and
NAM are showing values around 1.8"/1.9" with ML CAPE values around
1500 J/kg. The ILN forecast area will also be under a RRQ from the
upper level jet. Ahead of the front a strong LLJ will also help to
increase 0-1 km bulk shear values to 25 kts in places. Under
closer examination the LLJ max heads northeast towards the New
York/ Canada border as the front approaches. Due to the mentioned
above rain looks likely with the frontal passage with some storms
possible producing strong to severe winds. The front will then
clear the CWA by sunrise Sunday morning ushering in drier and
cooler weather.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Increase in active weather on Saturday/Saturday evening...though
with some timing differences. Pretty good consensus for a strong
and elongated shortwave to push through the area Saturday into
Saturday evening. Main threat appears to be damaging
winds...though with PW values increasing to 2+ inches locally
heavy rain also becomes a threat.
For Sunday through most of the remainder of the period...drier and
more seasonable temperatures drop in being the cold front with a
slow warming trend toward another weaker shortwave and cold front
dropping through the region by Wednesday...bringing the next chance
of precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid and high level debris cloudiness will continue to work its way
east across our area through the morning hours. Most of the models
suggest the area of pcpn currently pushing across northern
Illinois into northwest Indiana will weaken as it pushes east
toward our area through mid morning. A few of the higher res
models, including the hrrr, are allowing it to make it into our
northwest before falling apart. Will therefore allow for a vcsh
and a brief -shra at KDAY later this morning to cover this
possibility.
Otherwise, as we destabilize through the afternoon, the models
are in general agreement developing scattered thunderstorms
somewhere across central portions of Ohio through early afternoon
and then pushing them south toward the Ohio River during the mid
to late afternoon hours. Will cover this threat with a VCTS at
this point. The GFS is trying to linger some pcpn into tonight at
the Southern TAF sites, but will keep the TAFs dry for now as much
of this afternoon`s activity will be diurnally enhanced.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...JGL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
414 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 410 AM EDT thu Sep 8 2016
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be scattered across the area
this morning ahead of a weak cold front. As this front sags south
this afternoon...rain chances should diminish from north to
south. There is a small chance for a strong thunderstorm in the
south this afternoon...mainly near or south of highway 24. Drier
conditions are expected tonight into early Friday morning before
another system brings renewed rain and thunderstorm chances Friday
afternoon into Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
along with a few strong or isolated severe thunderstorms.
Temperatures will continue to trend cooler late this week into the
upcoming weekend with less humid conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Another muggy day expected with dew points lingering in the 70s but
temperatures will be several degrees cooler than previous few days
thanks to clouds and rain.
A large area of showers with embedded thunder will be moving
through the forecast area early this morning in association with
short wave and theta-e advection on nose of modest low level jet.
Given weakly forced environment today...CAMs have usual plethora
of solutions with regards to additional development through the
day. Broad but moist southwest flow coupled with weak sfc
boundaries should be enough to generate scattered convection
through the day until main front passes in the afternoon and early
evening. Have used the experimental HRRR for Pops today given
consistent verification scores over past 60 days and decent
initialization of ongoing convection. Pcpn chances will diminish
this evening into Friday morning but did allow a slight chance pop
to ride in far south with proximity of boundary and possible
convection riding along it overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Focus quickly shifts to Friday afternoon and Friday night
precipitation chances which look to linger into Saturday. Heavy
rainfall and severe weather remain on the table as possible
scenarios...with locally heavy rainfall the most likely concern.
Northern stream trough will drop out of western Canada Thursday
night...into the plains on Friday and into the Great Lakes by
Saturday. Deep moisture flux expected ahead of this wave and infused
by remnants of what was hurricane Newton. While models show these
remnants being quickly sheared...moisture and sheared vorticity will
spread northeast ahead of approaching trough. Precipitable water
values progged to reach 2.5-2.7 inches which is near record value
territory for early September per SPC sounding climatology. Deep
layer ascent coupled with what should be very efficient warm rain
processes should lead to large area of rain and embedded
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible. CIPS Analogs
continue to show good correlations with 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts
for the top 15 analogs. Fortunately the recent week of dry weather
has allowed the region to dry out with streamflows back to
near normal.The approaching system will also be rather
progressive and tropical remnants will be in a very sheared state.
Would expect average rainfall amounts around an inch with locally
heavier bands possibly producing as much as 3 inches.
There is also a low risk for severe weather hinted at by the top
analogs and a few models. If NAM12 were to verify we would be
looking at a scenario involving possible tornadoes and likely low
top supercells similar to what we have seen through August. NAM
generates a couple intense surface lows along warm front late Friday
with backed surface winds and 40-50 knots of deep layer shear.
Instability is modest but local severe weather climatology for our
area in the Fall has shown low CAPE high Shear environments are
favored for severe weather. While models agree on warm front lifting
north Friday afternoon and evening with convection...NAM remains
outlier with these intense lows and increased low level helicity.
Most models do show increasing deep layer shear but limited
instability so will keep an eye on this scenario for Friday
evening. For now will keep mention of low risk in HWO with focus
primarily on heavy rain potential.
Large area of high pressure should build into region for latter half
of weekend and early next week with much cooler and drier early fall
weather. This will be followed by another front and rain chances
Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Convection firing on nose of LLJ and weak/embedded shortwave is
currently pushing into northern Indiana. Lightning activity so far
has been limited and convection remains disorganized due to lack
of strong/coherent forcing. Have therefore just left VCTS mention
for now. MVFR conditions likely once this activity moves into the
area and moistens lower levels. Fuel alternate likely at KSBN and
some brief IFR not out of the question. Less confident in fuel
alternate at KFWA. Main change to previous forecast was to delay
return to VFR during the afternoon. Latest forecast soundings
suggest lower cigs may take most of the day to fully
scatter/lift. A few showers and storms possible at KFWA during the
afternoon but confidence too low for anything more than inherited
VCSH mention. Another round of low stratus possible Friday morning
but appears to remain after this TAF period.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...AGD
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
324 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Not much happening today with a surface ridge working across the
upper MS Valley. Highs right near normal with dewpoints falling back
into the upper 40s to mid 50s still looks like a good bet. We will
still have fast zonal flow overhead today, so mid/upper clouds will
be quickly thickening this afternoon as shortwave currently over
Montana comes racing toward us.
Tonight, the cold front, which will be clearing the MPX CWA around
6/7am this morning will start drifting back north across Iowa as a
warm front in response to height falls associated with the Montana
wave mentioned earlier. 925-700mb moisture transport and theta-e
advection picks up considerably overnight, but it looks to be split
in two parts. Early in the afternoon/evening it initially looks to
build into eastern SD before quickly laying over tonight to across
northern IA into southeast MN. The fist surge looks to do nothing
more than produce some accus, but the Iowa to Minnesota surge should
be strong enough to kick off some thunderstorms. High pressure
moving across the area today will leave us with some work to do with
moistening the low levels to get precip to the ground, so did delay
precip onset until mainly after 6z. With best moisture transport and
theta-e advection looking to go across north central Iowa into
southeast MN, have highest pops/qpf sliding across south central MN
tonight. Forecast sounding for FRM is quite impressive tonight with
50-60 kts of deep layer shear and nearly 2500 j/kg of CAPE for a
parcel lifted from the nose of the inversion (around 875 mb), so
some elevated hailers will be possible, which is what the SPC was
getting at with their marginal risk in the Day 1 outlook.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Overall, the longer term portion of the forecast looks to be
fairly quiet. A few short wave troughs and frontal boundaries will
move through the region, but none appear to have significant deep
layer moisture or instability associated with them, so for now it
looks like they will bring mainly garden variety precipitation.
Temperatures look like they will be near normal overall, with a
few days above and a few below. Some PoPs are needed for Friday
and Friday night as a cold front moves through the area. However,
the best moisture and instability look to remain south of our area
given a limited time of return flow ahead of the cold front and
associated shortwave trough. However, there does appear to be
sufficient forcing from the upper wave to warrant PoPs,
particularly over the southern and eastern portions of the area,
where there looks to be a better combination of moisture and
forcing. High pressure will build into the region for the weekend,
with things looking dry through Sunday night. By early next week
the model guidance is in reasonable agreement on features, but
differs quite a bit on timing of things. The ECMWF and Canadian
are much slower than the GFS with a system expected to impact the
area in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. The slower solutions favor
PoPs over a good portion of the area from Monday through a good
part of Tuesday, while the faster GFS would quickly dry things out
by Monday night. The consensus approach being used at this point
will lead to chance PoPs from Monday through the day on Tuesday,
with some low PoPs still over the far south/east Tuesday night. By
Wednesday all solutions indicate cool Canadian high pressure
building into the region, with dry weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Not anticipating precip at any terminals, with storms remaining
north of RNH/EAU the rest of the night. Front is now pushing through
STC/RWF. There are some IFR/MVFR cigs working down from NW MN behind
the front, but looks like only AXN/STC have a chance at getting into
those cigs in MN. WI terminals have a bit lower confidence on. Do
think better visibilities just west of EAU make it there, with
current FG lifting by 12z. Will it be replaced by low stratus? Well
they will be the last to see the front come through and seeing
stratus expand in the moist environs out ahead of the boundary in
western WI at least lends some support for stratus developing in
western WI in the next couple of hours, but the jury is definitely
out on that happening. No concerns after the morning with dry high
pressure working across the region. Warm front will quickly be
lifting north across Iowa again at the end of the TAF, but any TSRA
activity looks to remain south of MPX terminals until Friday morning.
KMSP...Like the idea of the RAP and LAMP that MSP remains VFR this
period, especially considering we did not get the thunderstorms that
were expected at one point. We may see a brief MVFR cig as the front
passes through around 9z, but other than that, high confidence in
this TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Chc MVFR in SHRA/TSRA. Winds SE 5-10 kts BCMG SW.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind S at 10kt.
&&
.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ016-027-
028.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
240 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak frontal boundary oscillates south then back north Thursday
night and Friday. Stronger front Saturday night brings airmass
change and cooler/drier early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Thursday...
Flow aloft will turn more zonal...finally eroding the dominant
ridge in place over the past several days. Now get into a pattern
of tracking upper level disturbances within the flow...along with
an approaching cold front. The northeastward track of the center
of low pressure towards Atlantic Canada lends to the front getting
hung up just west of the mountains...as does the formation of the
surface low off the lee of the Rockies. Overall...the cold front
is not that potent...but will bring some needed rain.
SPC has the area just north of the Ohio Valley outlooked for
marginal in terms of severe weather potential...where the modest
low level jet resides. In this case...modest is in the 20-30kt
range. However...overall instability is not that great...even
from the often inflated surface based CAPE values from the NAM.
Vertical profiles lend to some fairly healthy precipitation rates
in convection that fully develops.
Overall timing is after 21Z entering the CWA northwestern zones.
Thinking the HRRR and RAP are too early on the timing...trying to
pick up on some prefrontal convection.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...
Models are in descent agreement with a weak cold front dropping south
Thursday night into Friday. The front stalls and then returning
north as a warm front from late Friday into Friday night. This
boundary will serve as a focus for convective initiation as mid
level disturbances pass by. Expect chance for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms.
A stronger cold front crosses from west to east late Saturday into
early Sunday morning. Models show better chances for PCPN with this
front. Adjusted likely PoPs ahead and along the front. This front
will bring cooler and drier air mass to the region.
Despite the cooling showers and abundant cloudiness, temperatures
will run above normal through the short term with hot, humid days
and warm, muggy nights. Used mainly the super blend guidance for
temperatures through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...
Main forecast feature for the long term is a cold front slated to
move through this weekend. Models in fair agreement with the front
crossing late Saturday evening and Saturday night. For Saturday,
there are some differences, with the GFS trying to show some more
diurnal type t-showers across WV in the warm, muggy airmass ahead
of the cold front. SREF also shows this, however NAM and ECMWF are
pretty dry. Did include some low end POPs in the mountains.
The models show much of the precip post frontal. Have some likely
POPs making it into Southeast Ohio Saturday evening, but then
gradually fade into high chance POPs east of the Ohio River as the
cold front progresses through the Central Appalachians during the
less unstable overnight hours. Moisture cuts off pretty quick
behind the frontal band and have any lingering POPs ending across
the far east just after sunrise on Sunday. Cooler high pressure
will bring a dry end to the period.
Combined National Blend of Models and WPC guidance for temps
throughout.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z Wednesday to 06Z Thursday...
As of 130 AM...
Still have questions on fog potential in EKN through 13Z. Keep it
VFR due to clouds in the 4-6kft range that should persist through
the remainder of the overnight.
VFR cumulus formation through the day will increase in coverage
with the approach of a cold front. First showers enter the Ohio
Valley after 22Z...with MVFR visibilities in showers. Possibly
need to add MVFR ceilings once the showers begin at terminals.
While thunder is possible...will keep this out of prevailing for
now.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need MVFR ceilings after showers enter
region.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 09/08/16
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Isolated IFR possible in showers/storms through Saturday. IFR
possible in overnight valley fog for terminals that receive rain.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1115 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach later Thursday, then cross the region
Thursday night with a cold front. High pressure will build across
the region later Friday into Saturday. Another cold front will
cross Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:00 AM Update...Rain continues over the far northwest. Spotty
showers and drizzle are beginning to fill in a bit further south
across central Aroostook county so extended scattered showers
further south through midday and into the afternoon in these
areas. Also brought temperatures down a couple degrees over the
north where rainfall will likely prevent temps from rising much
past the mid 70s.
Orgnl Disc: Currently, some fog ovr Downeast areas, especially
along the immediate coast, with sct rn shwrs from Cntrl QB
brushing the the St John vly area. Fog should slowly lift ovr
Downeast areas later this morn and midday - last alg the immediate
coast. Meanwhile, we backed the tmg of heavier shwrs and any tstms
across the N til msly late this aftn and spcly to the erly to mid
eve hrs where shwrs should then spread SE into Cntrl and Downeast
areas as well. This based on the output of hrly HRRR model sim
radar ref, which was slower to bring shwrs into far nrn ptns of
the FA this morn and erly aftn. This seems to be supported by
latest real-time radar ref.
Otherwise, we did mention the potential of hvy rnfl with any
tstms. CAPE amounts look to be fairly modest later this aftn into
tngt, with most of this elevated, so any tstms should be low top.
With relatively fast W to E motion of any tstms, heavy downpours
should be brief. Total QPF with this event up to 12z Fri really
varies depending on what model you look at. For now, we took a
blend of many models with WPC 6 hrly QPF suggesting upwards to
nearly an inch ovr the St John vly region, with amounts tapering
downward fairly quickly swrd thru our region. Subsequently max
late eve and ovrngt PoPs with this event range from categorical N
to chc ovr Downeast areas for now. Due to greater cld cvr and more
srly component sfc winds, hi temps tdy will be a few deg cooler
than ystdy.
Shwrs should diminish and move E of the FA late tonight, leaving
in its wake cldy skies and patchy fog til the cold front crosses
durg the erly morn hrs Fri. Ovrngt lows will still be mild, but
not as warm as this past ngt.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, the weak shortwave and surface low will pull out of the
area in the morning. Will reduce pops very quickly early Friday
morning, but will be slow to take out the cloud cover due to
copious low level moisture and a frontal inversion in the north
half of the forecast area. This inversion led to lowering high temps
north to around 70F. Further south, the humidity and warmer temps
will hang on with 80F as the expected high in Bangor and
Ellsworth. The clouds will depart Friday night and radiational
cooling will produce reading in the 40s north and lower to mid 50s
in the southern half of the forecast area. Saturday will be less
humid across the entire area. An upper ridge and the surface ridge
will pass over the area. As the upper ridge crosses, expect higher
clouds to increase in the afternoon ahead of the next cold front.
Going with low to mid 70s for highs, but could go higher if clouds
don`t thicken in the afternoon. Will go up to high likely pops by
later Saturday night with the cold front and have bumped up lows
to around 60F with increasing humidity. There is nominal
instability aloft later in the night and have left isolated
thunderstorms in the forecast. Low clouds and some fog may roll
into the coastal zones during the night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front will cross early Sunday and introduce a more fall
like airmass. Most of the energy will pass well to the north of
the area and do not expect a lot of rainfall with this system.
Drier and less humid air will advect in during Sunday with
northwest winds potentially gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Skies will gradually clear through the day with clearing reaching
NE Aroostook by later in the day. Lows on Sunday night will drop
into the 40s north and low 50s for Bangor and the Down East
region. It could go even lower depending how fast the high builds. Humidity
will be much lower for early next week behind this front.
Temperatures will be in the 70s Monday and Tuesday as a warming SW
wind quickly arrives. The next front will start to affect the area
Tuesday night and will depart the area Wednesday night. Some
guidance is suggesting an anafrontal setup. Have gone with MOS
consensus guidance for Wednesday`s highs, but it could be very much
cooler.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly IFR to LIFR clgs and vsbys in ST/fog til mid
morning, then vsbys and clgs lift to high MVFR or low VFR by erly
aftn. Conditions then lower again to MVFR in shwrs his eve and to
IFR in shwrs/patchy fog late tngt
SHORT TERM: MVFR cigs are possible Friday morning...mostly for
northern sites. Conditions will be VFR for all terminals Friday
afternoon until Saturday evening. On Saturday evening, low clouds
and fog will roll north from the coast and cover the entire area
during the night. The low cigs will continue into Sunday morning
before VFR returns Sunday afternoon. It will be VFR Sunday night
and Monday for all terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No hdlns anticipated, although wvs tdy thru tngt ovr
our outer MZs will apch 5 ft, mainly with mdt wv pds of 6.5 to 9.0
sec. This will produce a mdt rip current risk to our two main
swimming beaches tdy. Otherwise, marine ST and fog will prevail
tdy and tngt. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts thru
the near term.
SHORT TERM: Will continue with patchy fog over the waters Friday
as the humid air mass remains. Seas may be near SCA criteria on
Friday with 5 ft possible. However, confidence is not high at this
time. The next event is a possibility for thunderstorms later
Saturday night...following by the chance of a marginal SCA on
Sunday due to winds and seas.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...VJN/MCB
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1156 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front across the Central Great Lakes will move across the
forecast area today and stall south of the area tonight. The
front will lift north as a warm front Friday Night. A low pressure
system will track across the Central Lakes Saturday dragging a
strong cold front across the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Thermal cap in place over the region with the RAP model showing up
to 11-12C in the NW, less in the east. The cap is likely causing
the decay of the upstream convection as it approaches from the
west. Still anticipate afternoon development as the instability
increases across the area. Western counties are more likely to see
rain with limited thunder while eastern counties, where there was
more sun for the first half of the day, could see better chances
for thunderstorms. Have raised temperatures a few degrees in the
south and east due to longer duration of sun. Clouds are
continuing to push east so not expecting much additional heating
once they fill in. Looking upstream the rainfall steering flow is
parallel to the boundary which will result in
backbuilding/training. Should storms strengthen they have the
potential of producing high rainfall rates given very high
moisture content in the area (PW 2 to 3 standard deviations above
normal).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Models continue in good agreement pushing the frontal boundary south
of the forecast area this evening. Models continue to lift boundary
back north as a warm front Friday night with another surge of hot
and humid air. This will be followed quickly by a low pressure
system that will track across the central lakes Saturday...dragging
a strong cold front across the forecast area. Better chance for
convection on Saturday with some diffluence aloft and a good low
level jet.
High pressure builds in quickly on sunday ushering in much cooler
and drier conditions. Temperatures may actually be a little below
normal with highs only in the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term forecast period begins on Monday with good model
agreement on a surface high pressure overhead and zonal flow aloft
allowing for a dry and seasonable Monday. Temperatures will be about
normal in the upper 70s.
For the rest of the extended forecast, the models are still
different with timing of the next system. The GFS is faster with an
upper level trough eroding the zonal pattern by Tuesday afternoon
and extending a cold front across the area. This would bring rain
chances to the area Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon. Today,
the ECMWF is only about half a day slower with this upper trough and
cold front and suggests rain chances for most of Wednesday. For now,
just hedged the precipitation chances with a slight chance to chance
pops from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday night until there is some
better agreement from the extended guidance. Temperatures will be
slightly above average for Tuesday as things will heat up ahead of
this system, but hedged again for Wednesday given the timing
differences and have temperatures about average. Both models then
agree that the cold front will be out of the region by Wednesday
night and will have a dry forecast for Thursday and temperatures
below average for Thursday with cold air advection building in. Low
temperatures could become chilly with lows into the lower 50s to
even upper 40s late next week!
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Clouds and rain have begun to move into NW Ohio at daybreak this
morning and will progress eastward, bringing rain chances and
lowering ceilings, intermittently to 2500 feet, to KTOL and KFDY through
this AM. Some uncertainty remains if these rain showers and
lowered ceilings will hold together for the other five terminals
as we start to warm up today so generally left out of the TAFs
for now except for a vicinity shower mention.
A weak cold front is progged to move across the area this
afternoon bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms at all
terminals, which may have some heavy rainfall. Winds will pick up
from the southwest and occasionally gust to 20 knots or so. Not
extremely confident on the timing or coverage of showers and
storms this afternoon, but given radar trends to the west and
model guidance, felt somewhat comfortable in putting MVFR/IFR
tempo groups in for this afternoon and early evening for when the
front and associated rain begins moving into the area. All
convection should be out of the terminals by midnight tonight and
winds will subside to about 5 knots, remaining from the southwest.
Did not mention any fog for Friday morning yet, but will likely be
needed down the road, depending on which terminals see rain today.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with morning fog on Friday and showers
and thunderstorms on Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
As expected, southwest flow is increasing across Lake Erie ahead of
the cold front and as low pressure deepens, passing north of Lake
Erie. Winds are presently in the 10 to 15 knot range from the
southwest for a majority of the lake and will get up to 20 knots in
the west and up to 25 for the eastern half. With the increase in
winds, waves will also be on the increase reaching 2 to 4 feet in
the west and 3 to 5 feet in the east. Given all of this, a small
craft advisory was issued for the eastern half of the lake for a
portion of Thursday. The cold front will move through and conditions
will improve late Thursday afternoon from west to east, eventually
below small craft advisory criteria with waves 1 to 3 feet.
Winds will diminish to 10 knots or less from the southwest as the
cold front reemerges as a warm front on Friday. Then another and
much stronger cold front will move through the area on Saturday
night. Winds will be on the increase again back to 15 to 25 knots
from the southwest Saturday into Saturday night. Small craft
advisory conditions are likely to develop again with this cold front
on Saturday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
OHZ089.
Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
OHZ012.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ148-
149.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ147.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...Jamison
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1039 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A 12Z upper air analysis showed a 500 mb high pressure ridge over
the northern counties of the forecast area. In addition, an
easterly wave was located over the central and northern Gulf. A
RAP analysis of the PW field shows the best moisture plume over
Louisiana along and east of the easterly wave with a secondary
moisture axis just east of Matagorda Bay. The subsidence area west
of the easterly wave and under the upper high pressure ridge was
helping to keep slightly drier conditions over the remainder of
the forecast area. The 12Z soundings did show a bit of a low-level
cap at CRP. Otherwise, MUCAPE values ranged from 1600 to 2500 at
the nearest upper air sites (SHV, LCH, and CRP).
Made a few tweaks to this afternoon`s rain chances. Do expect the
isolated showers over the southwestern counties to continue for
the remainder of the morning. As the seabreeze develops and moves
inland, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should
affect locations mainly between the coast and the Interstate 10
corridor. As occurred yesterday afternoon, isolated/localized
heavy rainfall will be possible in the event of colliding
seabreeze and outflow boundaries. Any activity that develops this
afternoon will diminish around sunset with the loss of solar
heating.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 92 74 90 / 10 10 20 10 40
Houston (IAH) 93 75 90 75 91 / 30 10 40 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 89 80 88 / 20 20 40 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...47
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
650 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 410 AM EDT thu Sep 8 2016
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be scattered across the area
this morning ahead of a weak cold front. As this front sags south
this afternoon...rain chances should diminish from north to
south. There is a small chance for a strong thunderstorm in the
south this afternoon...mainly near or south of highway 24. Drier
conditions are expected tonight into early Friday morning before
another system brings renewed rain and thunderstorm chances Friday
afternoon into Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
along with a few strong or isolated severe thunderstorms.
Temperatures will continue to trend cooler late this week into the
upcoming weekend with less humid conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Another muggy day expected with dew points lingering in the 70s but
temperatures will be several degrees cooler than previous few days
thanks to clouds and rain.
A large area of showers with embedded thunder will be moving
through the forecast area early this morning in association with
short wave and theta-e advection on nose of modest low level jet.
Given weakly forced environment today...CAMs have usual plethora
of solutions with regards to additional development through the
day. Broad but moist southwest flow coupled with weak sfc
boundaries should be enough to generate scattered convection
through the day until main front passes in the afternoon and early
evening. Have used the experimental HRRR for Pops today given
consistent verification scores over past 60 days and decent
initialization of ongoing convection. Pcpn chances will diminish
this evening into Friday morning but did allow a slight chance pop
to ride in far south with proximity of boundary and possible
convection riding along it overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Focus quickly shifts to Friday afternoon and Friday night
precipitation chances which look to linger into Saturday. Heavy
rainfall and severe weather remain on the table as possible
scenarios...with locally heavy rainfall the most likely concern.
Northern stream trough will drop out of western Canada Thursday
night...into the plains on Friday and into the Great Lakes by
Saturday. Deep moisture flux expected ahead of this wave and infused
by remnants of what was hurricane Newton. While models show these
remnants being quickly sheared...moisture and sheared vorticity will
spread northeast ahead of approaching trough. Precipitable water
values progged to reach 2.5-2.7 inches which is near record value
territory for early September per SPC sounding climatology. Deep
layer ascent coupled with what should be very efficient warm rain
processes should lead to large area of rain and embedded
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible. CIPS Analogs
continue to show good correlations with 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts
for the top 15 analogs. Fortunately the recent week of dry weather
has allowed the region to dry out with streamflows back to
near normal.The approaching system will also be rather
progressive and tropical remnants will be in a very sheared state.
Would expect average rainfall amounts around an inch with locally
heavier bands possibly producing as much as 3 inches.
There is also a low risk for severe weather hinted at by the top
analogs and a few models. If NAM12 were to verify we would be
looking at a scenario involving possible tornadoes and likely low
top supercells similar to what we have seen through August. NAM
generates a couple intense surface lows along warm front late Friday
with backed surface winds and 40-50 knots of deep layer shear.
Instability is modest but local severe weather climatology for our
area in the Fall has shown low CAPE high Shear environments are
favored for severe weather. While models agree on warm front lifting
north Friday afternoon and evening with convection...NAM remains
outlier with these intense lows and increased low level helicity.
Most models do show increasing deep layer shear but limited
instability so will keep an eye on this scenario for Friday
evening. For now will keep mention of low risk in HWO with focus
primarily on heavy rain potential.
Large area of high pressure should build into region for latter half
of weekend and early next week with much cooler and drier early fall
weather. This will be followed by another front and rain chances
Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are currently moving
across northern Indiana on the nose of LLJ with a weak/embedded
shortwave. Just a few lightning strikes currently being reported
so maintained VCTS for a few more hours. Latest hi-res models
generally agree this activity will wane during the late morning
with slowly improving ceilings. However, a secondary round of
showers may develop around KFWA during the late afternoon. Not
confident enough in coverage of thunder to add mention just yet
but will TEMPO some MVFR ceilings. Return to MVFR (or lower)
conditions expected by Friday morning given light winds and
abundant low level moisture.
&&
.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...AGD
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1100 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...Surface analysis late this morning places a weak
cold front from the Upper Midwest back through the Central Plains.
Water Vapor satellite/WSR-88D Vad Wind Profiles indicate a couple
of subtle mid-level shortwave troughs moving along the I-44
corridor. Short term model soundings indicate a potential for
a few rain showers to occur across the Mid South this afternoon.
KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D radars already indicating some returns over
portions of North Mississippi which the HRRR appears to be picking
up on already. Will make adjustments to rain chances and any other
elements to account for short term trends.
Updated grids will be available shortly.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/
DISCUSSION...
Updated for aviation discussion
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016/
Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area early this
morning with temperatures mainly in the 70s. A cold front
currently extends from southeast Minnesota through northern Kansas
and into northeast Colorado. This front will move slowly south
today. Some thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the
front and possibly move across extreme northern sections of the
forecast area. Most area will remain dry today as temperatures
remain on the hot side with highs in the lower 90s.
The cold front will be over extreme northern Missouri tonight with
an isolated thunderstorms could sneak into northern sections of
the forecast area. Temperatures will remain warm with lows Friday
morning in the low to mid 70s. The cold front will not move too
much on Friday so there will only be a small chance of
thunderstorms over extreme northern sections of the forecast area.
Temperatures will remain on the hot side with highs in the lower
90s.
The cold front will start to move closer to the forecast area
Friday night so there will be a better chance of thunderstorms
mainly over portions of northeast Arkansas. By Saturday, the cold
front will be starting to move into the forecast area which will
mean a better chance of thunderstorms across the entire region.
WIth more clouds over the region, temperatures will be a little
cooler with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. The cold
front will move out of the region Saturday night with rain ending
behind the front. Cooler and drier air will start to move into the
region behind the front with lows Sunday morning mainly in the
60s.
Sunday will begin a period of dry weather which will continue
through Monday night. Temperatures will be below normal on Sunday
but will warm some on Monday as winds shift to the south. Some
isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday mainly over north
Mississippi as temperatures warm back into the lower 90s. Another
cold front will approach the region Tuesday night and move into
the forecast area on Wednesday bringing more thunderstorms with
it.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF cycle
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period. Some patchy
fog is possible at KMKL late tonight. Light winds will become
southwest at 7-9 kts by mid morning, diminishing around sunset.
SJM
&&
.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
923 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Current-tonight...Morning KXMR sounding shows slightly warmer (mid-
level) conditions, 700/500mb temps, +10.1C/-5.4C, respectively, and
a more moist deep layer (PWAT: 1.43") when compared to yesterday`s
sounding. But for now, water vapor imagery suggests a fairly tight
moisture gradient continues to exist north of the Treasure
Coast/Okeechobee County. Expect deep layer moisture values to slowly
increase across the area from the south toward the north through the
period.
Cape wind profilers show a deep, albeit weak, light onshore wind
profiler from near the surface through at least 9.0 Kft. An inverted
trough located over the Bahamas will be responsible for backing low-
level winds to out of the ENE. These surface wind speeds will
increase to 10-15 mph in the late morning/afternoon. High pressure
ridging, east-west oriented, will remain north of ECFL but will
settle across north-central FL over the next 24 hours.
WSR-88D MLB shows isolated coastal showers, mainly south from
Sebastian Inlet. This activity will spread inland during the day and
into the interior through the afternoon. The local HRRR keeps
activity mainly south of the Cape thru the afternoon and may be able
to perform a zones update later this morning shrinking lightning
storm chances further southward. This evening/overnight it appears
greatest shower chances will exist from the Cape southward over the
coastal waters and along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts.
...previous discussion...
Some weak isentropic lift will produce more clouds today especially
from Orlando southward. High temps will reach the lower 90s across
the north interior where more solar heating will occur, holding in
the upper 80s elsewhere.
The northeast swell continues to subside but a second (small) east
swell will help to produce a moderate risk of rip currents in the
surf zone.
&&
.AVIATION...Continued mainly VFR. Slow increase in deep layer
moisture from south FL towards the north over the next 24hrs.
Greatest chance for late morning/afternoon convection continues
south of both KMCO and KMLB. Evening/overnight shower chances from
deep, but light onshore flow, should lie from the Cape through the
Treasure Coast. Brief MVFR conds invof convection.
&&
.MARINE...Current-tonight...Low-level ridging to the north and
inverted troughing over the Bahamas will provide for ENE winds
across the local coastal waters of ECFL. Wind speeds generally
around 10 kts, but could increase up to around 15 kts at times this
afternoon and early evening. Isold shower activity mainly south from
the Cape over the next 24hrs. The ENE/E swell component continues to
diminish, though a slightly increased wind chop will be likely with
the small northerly wind component. Seas around 2 ft very near shore
and 3 to 4 ft over the open Atlantic. Small craft boating conditions
slightly less than ideal compared with recent days.
&&
.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Sedlock/Volkmer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
642 AM CDT THU SEP 8 2016
.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Periodic episodes of showers and thunderstorms will occur
throughout the short-term. The activity should remain primarily
along and northwest of the Ohio River through Friday night.
Over the past few days, a rather strong 500 mb ridge has been
oriented from the Gulf coast northward through the Ohio Valley.
This ridge and its associated dry weather will be suppressed
slightly southward today through Friday. As the ridge is
suppressed, a pool of tropical moisture with pwats over 2 inches
will advance southeast across Missouri and Illinois today and
tonight. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level flow and
embedded weak impulses will also sag southeast toward the Lower
Ohio Valley. The net result will be increasing precip chances
today and tonight. Pops will be in the likely category at times in
parts of southern IL and southwest IN. However, the 500 mb ridge
will remain close enough to exert some influence over western
Kentucky. Pops will be no higher than slight chance in the khop
area today through Friday night.
For the past couple of days, the models have been indicating a
weak warm front will develop over the Lower Ohio Valley Friday.
This warm front may be the focus for stronger, more numerous
storms. A few strong or marginally severe storms are possible,
mainly along the Interstate 64 corridor on Friday afternoon. As
the warm front lifts northeast of our region Friday evening, the
models show a brief period of drier weather. This is a very subtle
feature, but it is handled in the grids with a slight decrease in
pops Friday evening.
A cold front will sweep southeast across our region on Saturday.
This front will cross much of our region in the morning, prior to
the full effects of diurnal heating/destabilization. Therefore,
pops are only in the chance category. The highest chances will be
over parts of western Kentucky, where the front may be located
during the potentially more unstable afternoon hours.
As far as temps, overnight lows are fairly straightforward due to
abundant cloudiness, south winds, and high dew points. This
combination will keep lows mainly in the lower 70s. Daytime highs
are complicated by the variations in cloudiness and precip across
the region. Today and Friday, relatively dry conditions in western
KY should allow temps to peak near 90. The cloudier and wetter
areas of southern IL should only reach the mid 80s. Highs Saturday
will range from the upper 70s behind the front to mid 80s over
parts of west KY.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Forecast confidence is high Sunday through Tuesday, but decreases
for Wednesday and Thursday.
A cold front will have passed through the entire region by 00Z
Sunday, and most, if not all, of the 00Z guidance has any associated
precipitation/convection out of the area by then, as well. We will
have a dry forecast from Saturday night through Monday night. Much
drier surface high pressure will build across the region Saturday
night and settle overhead on Sunday and Monday. We will still be
under the influence of weak high pressure aloft.
The bottom line is a nice cool down with lows in the 50s Saturday
night and Sunday night and highs on Sunday ranging from 75-80, or 5-
10 degrees below normal. A warming trend will begin on Monday, and
by Tuesday afternoon much of the area should be back a few degrees
above normal, with southerly winds.
The 00Z GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all bring a northern stream storm system
eastward along the Canadian border and into the Great Lakes at some
point Tuesday or Tuesday night. The 00Z models seem to be converging
on a solution toward the faster end of the guidance envelope from
the 12Z and previous model cycles. This would bring a weakly
convergent cold front into/through the area Tuesday into Tuesday
night.
The four state region will remain on the southern fringe of the
westerlies with high pressure aloft entrenched just to our south.
The weak flow and at best marginal instability expected, may not be
enough to really focus much convective development on or near the
actual cold frontal wind shift. The models are in good agreement in
developing QPF behind the front Wednesday and possibly into
Thursday.
Given the uncertainties in coverage will only have 20-30% PoPs on
Wednesday with slight chances spreading across the region Tuesday
and Tuesday night, and pushing out of the region Wednesday night and
Thursday. With surface high pressure building in and an increase in
clouds, temperatures will drop to normal, if not a bit below for
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Main aviation concern is the timing of possible thunderstorms this
afternoon and tonight. Through the morning hours, expect scattered
cumulus clouds to form above 3k feet. A thunderstorm complex over
Missouri and Illinois this morning may propagate southeast toward
the taf sites this afternoon. The latest 10z HRRR model indicates
this possibility. Therefore, a prob30 group for tsra has been added
to all taf sites for the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Best chance for showers/storms tonight will be from the kevv/kowb
areas north and west, where mvfr conditions should be common.
Mention of precip was excluded from the kpah/kcgi tafs, where
chances are lower.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...MY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1109 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak frontal boundary oscillates south then back north Thursday
night and Friday. Stronger front Saturday night brings airmass
change and cooler/drier early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As 1045 AM Thursday...
Continued to adjust pops this afternoon and early tonight. Latest
guidance and observation trends strongly suggest most of the
convection with approaching front...which is well to the
northwest of our area at time...will be slower to advance into
our area. Have trimmed pops area wide for this afternoon and
evening as model soundings also do not show much diurnal
instability this far in advance of the front.
As of 600 AM Thursday...
Adjusted the front end timing of the POPs late this
afternoon...and bumped up Kanawha Valley temperatures slightly.
As of 240 AM Thursday...
Flow aloft will turn more zonal...finally eroding the dominant
ridge in place over the past several days. Now get into a pattern
of tracking upper level disturbances within the flow...along with
an approaching cold front. The northeastward track of the center
of low pressure towards Atlantic Canada lends to the front getting
hung up just west of the mountains...as does the formation of the
surface low off the lee of the Rockies. Overall...the cold front
is not that potent...but will bring some needed rain.
SPC has the area just north of the Ohio Valley outlooked for
marginal in terms of severe weather potential...where the modest
low level jet resides. In this case...modest is in the 20-30kt
range. However...overall instability is not that great...even
from the often inflated surface based CAPE values from the NAM.
Vertical profiles lend to some fairly healthy precipitation rates
in convection that fully develops.
Overall timing is after 21Z entering the CWA northwestern zones.
Thinking the HRRR and RAP are too early on the timing...trying to
pick up on some prefrontal convection.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...
Models are in descent agreement with a weak cold front dropping south
Thursday night into Friday. The front stalls and then returning
north as a warm front from late Friday into Friday night. This
boundary will serve as a focus for convective initiation as mid
level disturbances pass by. Expect chance for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms.
A stronger cold front crosses from west to east late Saturday into
early Sunday morning. Models show better chances for PCPN with this
front. Adjusted likely PoPs ahead and along the front. This front
will bring cooler and drier air mass to the region.
Despite the cooling showers and abundant cloudiness, temperatures
will run above normal through the short term with hot, humid days
and warm, muggy nights. Used mainly the super blend guidance for
temperatures through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...
Main forecast feature for the long term is a cold front slated to
move through this weekend. Models in fair agreement with the front
crossing late Saturday evening and Saturday night. For Saturday,
there are some differences, with the GFS trying to show some more
diurnal type t-showers across WV in the warm, muggy airmass ahead
of the cold front. SREF also shows this, however NAM and ECMWF are
pretty dry. Did include some low end POPs in the mountains.
The models show much of the precip post frontal. Have some likely
POPs making it into Southeast Ohio Saturday evening, but then
gradually fade into high chance POPs east of the Ohio River as the
cold front progresses through the Central Appalachians during the
less unstable overnight hours. Moisture cuts off pretty quick
behind the frontal band and have any lingering POPs ending across
the far east just after sunrise on Sunday. Cooler high pressure
will bring a dry end to the period.
Combined National Blend of Models and WPC guidance for temps
throughout.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
15Z Thursday to 12Z Friday...
As of 1045 AM...
Latest guidance and observation trends suggest that any
convection today well ahead of an approaching from the northwest
will be limited by lack of upper disturbances and marginal
instability. Have trimmed pops this afternoon and evening area
wide...with the pops mainly limited to southeast Ohio and northern
West Virginia...before advancing farther south and east tonight
into mainly central West Virginia and northeast Kentucky.
As of 600 AM...
Increasing VFR cumulus coverage expected today...especially over
the Ohio Valley with the approach of a cold front slated to bring
SHRA and TSRA after 02Z tonight from HTS to PKB. Going with a
conservative aviation forecast for now with the activity expected
to wave as it moves in to the area. Therefore...not going with IFR
in the prevailing conditions and only SHRA for now in the TAFs.
However...it can be expected that brief IFR is possible at the
onset of showers entering terminals overnight. TEMPOs may be
needed in this case...but that lies beyond the scope of this
forecast.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through 00Z.
Medium through 12Z.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TEMPOs for brief IFR in convective activity
may be needed.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
Isolated IFR possible in showers/storms through Saturday. IFR
possible in overnight valley fog for terminals that receive rain.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV/26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
341 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Some wonderful drying today with glorious sunshine. About time!
The first 30 hours of this forecast are the most interesting. The
frontal zone across southern IA/NEB is not too far away and holds
the tropical moisture pool. The latest 88D winds at 1500 m showing
directions shifting to S-SW to begin the moisture return northward
in the last hour over SD and ern NEB. Water vapor imagery is
showing a big time fall-season trough upstream with mucho energy.
The first wave is over KFSD at this time with some shower
activity. This may bring a few sprinkles to the northwest area
this evening but is coming into a dry environment. The second
shortwave is over northwest WY (arrives later tonight), and the
big daddy of them all is over British Columbia (arrives Friday).
Heights are already falling across the Plains and the southerly
flow is beginning to work on the frontal zone. Good agreement on
about 750 J/Kg of MUCAPE moving in from the southwest for
elevated parcels overnight. Mid-level lapse rates are still
favorable as well, in the 7C/km range or slightly above, before model
convection dilution. The 850 mb moisture push is really
impressive with a strong gradient from -10C to 13C, and the 13C
paralleling the Miss river by sunrise. This would saturate the
bottom of the steep lapse rate layer quickly and initiate parcels
in weak-moderate convergence in swrn MN. Maybe a slight push
aloft from the WY shortwave trough. So, it seems the environment
is conducive for shower and thunderstorm development later
tonight. Very good consensus in the CAMS over the past 8 hours
too on this solution. Timing is roughly 09Z Rochester-Charles
City and the Miss River by sunrise. This area should continue to
shift east in the morning. Have increased storm chances late
tonight into the morning. Severe storm chances are marginal but
there - 800 J/Kg with those steep lapse rates and elevated bulk
shear of 30 kts (depending on storm depth, it could be higher)
favoring a marginal severe hail threat. The shear above 5 km is
awesome, but the storms may not be deep enough to `feel` it.
The big daddy potential vorticity anomaly, with a tropopause fold
in the 08.19Z RAP down to 750mb, deepens into the Plains Friday.
QG forcing is deep and strong Friday, with cold frontal passage in
the afternoon and evening. The question is how much can we
destabilize for storms and a severe weather. Bulk shear in the
linear hodograph varies in the lowest 4 km among the models, with
great shear above that. Dynamic lift is excellent. Storm type
would seem to favor splitting supercells or line forcing quickly
congealing any afternoon storms into bowing segments. MLCAPE still
recovers in the models to near 1500 J/Kg - somewhat surprising.
But concerned it will be cloudy after a morning of rain, and
recovery will suffer. Thus, have taken a strong to severe
approach in the messaging. The severe storm threat and area may
not be known until Friday mornings rain can be solved, but it
appears near and south of I-90 may be the best dynamics and CAPE
union area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Saturday will be a drying day overall with cold advection and
breezy 15-25 mph winds, possibly gusting to 30 mph west of the
Miss river. There is a small shower chance early, and have slowed
the clearing slightly thinking there would be some
cumulus/stratocumulus development until very dry air moves in
later.
Sunday through Thursday...Looks to be a no weather impact period
with mainly below normal temperatures and dry conditions...or
small rain chances /Monday and Tuesday/. The Great Lakes remain
under a zonal to northwest flow pattern in the large scale.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
High pressure will provide vfr conditions into this evening. Warm
air advection ahead of an approaching cold front will push vfr
accas and scattered shra/ts into the area after sunrise. These
are expected to be more numerous west of the Mississippi
River...so will carry vcts at KRST after 14z. Left thunder mention
out at klse for now.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT IN THE FORECAST HOWEVER SOME SITES MAY
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH FRIDAY. THE UPPER IOWA...PINE...AND KICKAPOO
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND.
&&
.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
325 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Forecast challenge will be timing of light showers, sky, and
associated impacts on temps tonight and tomorrow. Overall, prefer
the HRRR this evening transitioning into a model blend for
overnight and tomorrow periods.
An area of light rain showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm over central ND will advect into Devils Lake area
over the next couple of hours and spread west to east across the
CWA. Mid level moisture so do not anticipate much in the way of
rainfall accumulation, generally a couple of hundredths total.
Expect to see a break in activity near morning before a cold front
drops into the northern tier from srn Canada, with more light
rain, very scattered in nature, spreading north to south across
the area tomorrow. Cool temperatures generally in the mid to
upper 60s are expected as a much cooler air mass sinks into ND.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Lingering shower chances into Friday evening. High pressure will
move in late Friday and into Saturday with clearing skies.
Temperatures behind the front will drop a few degrees below normal.
Winds turning south-southwest on Sunday and increasing ahead of next
cold front due to arrive Sunday night. Warm and dry ahead of the
front with temps in the mid 70s to low 80s. Chance of showers
behind the front Sunday night into Monday as cooler air moves in.
Shower chances continue into Monday evening before high pressure
builds into western North Dakota Mon night and bring clearing skies
overnight to eastern ND and the RRV. Temperatures coldest in the far
northwest with some upper 30s possible. Lingering clouds and and/or
late clearing in the Red River valley into Minnesota will keep lows
in the low-mid 40s. A dry stretch for a change Wed-Fri as high
pressure moves slowly east and temperatures moderate back to near
normal. Northern stream jet stream remains in central Canada while
another piece of the jet stream digs over the central Rockies. This
puts our area in a drier airmass and at least for the time being
away from moisture.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
VFR...mid level cigs with virga/light showers in the late aftn to
mid evening hours but cigs expected to continue 8K to 12K range.
&&
.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Speicher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
315 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016
LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Aviation/Hydro/Marine
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016
High pressure will build in and bring fair weather tonight through
Friday afternoon. A strengthening low pressure system will bring
showers and thunderstorms late Friday night and Saturday morning. A
cooler and drier airmass will move in behind that system Sunday into
early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Primary short term fcst concerns involve assessment of convective
potential from Friday night through Saturday morning and to
determine fog potential for tonight.
We have added areas of fog to the forecast for very late tonight
through mid morning Friday. 12z short range guidance consensus
time height rh progs/numerical guidance along with rgnl sat trends
all suggest skies will gradually clear tonight. This in
conjunction with winds becoming light and variable and some
lingering boundary layer moisture will set the stage for areas of fog
to develop overnight. Fog could potentially become dense prior to
daybreak.
Morning fog will dissipate and ample sun and southerly winds will
help to boost max temps into the lower to middle 80`s Friday.
Isolated showers could develop as early as late afternoon or early
evening but the best chance for rain and scattered convection will
hold off until very late Friday night into Saturday morning with the
approach of the strengthening sfc low and cold front.
The severe wx threat late Friday night into Saturday morning is low
given frontal timing and weak instability. However we cannot
completely rule out potential for isolated strong to severe
convection given strong upper level dynamics/pva and strong shear in
conjunction with ample low level moisture and forcing from the
approaching front.
.
It will become breezy Saturday as a significantly cooler and drier
airmass begins to advect in behind that system. Fair wx will return
late Saturday through Saturday night as high pressure builds in.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016
More fall like conditions will prevail through the long term period.
The next system will move through the area in the Tuesday/Wednesday
time frame with showers and thunderstorms. That will be followed by
the coolest air of the season so far. Widespread lows in the 40s are
expected by Thursday morning behind the cold front.
The polar jet will remain near the the Great Lakes through this
coming week. That will allow the next system in the Tuesday night
into Wednesday time frame tap Gulf of Mexico moisture and mix it
with northern stream dynamics. The models area in good agreement
with this system so that helps the confidence.
Once that system moves through shortwave ridging will allow clearing
and cooler temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016
MVFR cigs prevail at most of the TAF sites at 1720z. There is an
area of rain moves west to east just south of the TAF sites early
this afternoon so I kept the VCSH in the I-94 tafs. Once the cold
front gets a little closer the low ceilings should mix out so all
taf sites should be VFR by 21z.
Skies should clear this evening and that should lead to fog toward
morning. Both the RAP model and NAM show extensive fog (less than a
1/4 mile vis) in the 09z to 12z time frame. Given all the rain and
light winds tonight, that totally makes sense to I put it in all of
our taf sites for 09z to 12z. Skies will be mostly clear by mid
morning Friday, once he fog burns off.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Winds and wave heights will remain below small craft criteria
through Friday evening. West to northwest winds will ramp up
considerably on Saturday when a small craft advisory will likely
be needed.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Heavy rainfall over the last 2 days was mostly located near Lake
Michigan and therefore the rivers should quickly fall after a small
rise. Additional showers and storms are expected Friday afternoon
through Saturday. River rises are likely, and some smaller rivers
and streams may rise above bankfull by Sunday.
&&
.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Laurens
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...Laurens
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
257 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Area of showers and a few thunderstorms has become more widely
scattered south of I-72 at mid afternoon. More widespread convection
is east of IL over central IN and sw of CWA over southwest IL and
into central/southeast MO. An outflow boundary has pushed just
southeast of I-70 at mid afternoon and this is the area where
thunderstorms with heavier rains are located east of Terre Haute and
sw of Effingham. Meanwhile northern CWA has dried out and getting
some breaks in the low clouds. HRRR and RAP models show convection
slowly shifting southeast across southeast IL into this evening and
then most areas fairly dry overnight with some fog develop
especially from I-70 north. Have trended forecast drier tonight over
central and northern CWA and added patchy fog overnight into early
Fri morning. Muggy lows overnight in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms to increase from sw to ne
across CWA during Friday morning as frontal boundary gets tugged
back northward as a warm front in response to surface low pressure
lifting northeast into west central/nw IL by sunset Friday. SPC day2
has marginal risk of severe storms across CWA with slight risk of
severe sw of a Canton to Springfield line later Friday afternoon and
Friday evening. Moderate to heavy rains will be possible again on
Friday and especially Friday night as cold front moves into central
IL with precipitable water values as high as 2-2.4 inches southeast
of IL river and in record territory for Sep. Held off on issuing a
flash flood watch since heaviest rains appears to occur Friday
night. Flash Flood guidance values range from 1.5-2.4 per hour, 1.8-
3.4/3 hr and 2.3-3.9/6 hr and highest over southeast IL which has
not seen as much rainfall so far. Highs Fri range from near 80F
northern CWA to mid 80s southeast of I-70. Humid again with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
The forecast period will start out wet as a vigorous short wave and
associated cold front push into the area. Anomalously high
Precipitable Water values near 2" as the system pushes into the area
will still support heavy rainfall with showers/storms, but shear and
instability parameters are not especially conducive to severe
storms. The cold front is progged to push east of the forecast area
by midday Saturday, with the post frontal airmass/weather pattern
supporting quiet and cooler than normal conditions through the
remainder of the weekend.
Neutral/zonal upper-level flow will develop across the eastern U.S.
behind the Friday night/Saturday morning front, lingering into early
next week. Meanwhile, deeper troffing and an upper low will develop
across the western states. The next weather feature of note/concern
locally will be a northern stream wave that will pass mainly to our
north Tuesday into Wednesday. This system should push a cold front
through the area as it passes by, providing our next risk of
showers/storms. The exact timing of this front is still in question
due to the fact that it will become more parallel to the local upper
flow, which will also be much weaker than to the north.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 8 2016
Area of showers and isolated thunderstorms from I-55 southeast
will gradually shift south of I-72 during mid afternoon as frontal
boundary sags slowly into southeast IL late this afternoon and
early evening. Carried rain showers with ceilings from 700-1500 ft
next few hours across central IL TAF sites, except rain showers
should stay se of PIA. Latest models show convection south of TAF
sites from late this afternoon thru tonight and shifts back ne
during mid/late Friday morning. Have reduced vsbys further
overnight to 1-3 miles with fog and could be patchy denser fog
with vsbys under a mile later tonight into mid morning Friday.
Also have MVFR ceilings developing overnight with the fog and
possibly going IFR into Friday morning as rain showers spread in.
TS appears to be too isolated to mention in the TAFs at this time,
as best chance of TS south of I-72 this afternoon and arriving
over central IL Fri afternoon/evening. Winds stay less than 10 kts
next 24 hours.
&&
.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
359 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon WV imagery and RAP 500 hPa height analysis show a broad
upper level ridge continues to extend across the Gulf Coast.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across SW LA
into SC LA in conjunction with diurnal heating. Given the lack of
significant forcing mechanisms across the area, convective
activity should diminish shortly after 0Z and this is supported
by higher resolution model guidance for this evening.
Further to the south, a vort max was noted in WV imagery over the
central Gulf. The vort max is associated with an inverted trough moving
westward that is forecast to move over SC TX on Friday.
Short Term...Friday through Sunday...
The short term period will be fairly active with several weather
features moving across the region. During the day on Friday, the
inverted trough over the central Gulf is forecast to move into TX
north of Corpus Christi. This will result in increased POPs across
SETX Friday. On Saturday and Sunday, another upper level trough
and associated surface boundary will approach the region from the
northwest that will result in even higher POPs/QPF.
Long Term...Monday through Friday...
For the long term period, the GEFS/EPS feature another mean
longwave trough setting up over the west coast with a ridge over
the east coast. This upper level pattern will result in an
increased fetch over the Gulf and increasing precipitable water
across the region. However, the NAEFS/GEFS/EPS mean precipitable
water all remain below two inches, corresponding to the 90th
percentile for September. Therefore, without any highly anomalous
moisture or height fields, expect a return to climatological POPs
and diurnal thunderstorm activity for next week.
&&
.MARINE...
A broad area of high pressure will continue over the southeast
U.S. and northern Gulf through early next week. The approach of
the front will shift the flow more easterly on Sunday and early
next week. At this time...weak onshore flow will continue.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 73 92 72 91 / 10 20 10 30
LCH 76 90 75 90 / 10 30 10 40
LFT 75 91 75 90 / 10 40 10 30
BPT 77 91 76 90 / 20 30 10 40
&&
.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
232 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...
Surface flow across the forecast area has been from a southwesterly
direction much of the day. Winds off the caprock are beginning to
back, however. This is in an area where temperatures in the lower to
middle 90s and dew point temperatures near 70. The backing of the
low level flow may be what it takes to see some isolated showers
develop in this part of the area. Model runs are mostly dry for late
afternoon and evening, but the RAP has consistently been showing
another SW-NE swath of precipitation developing, and what seems to
be setting up might verify that solution. As a result, will run with
a slight chance across roughly the eastern column of counties for
this evening. Will also extend that into the overnight hours. Deep
moisture lingers across the Rolling Plains, although not as rich as
it has been the last several days. Proclivity to see some elevated
nocturnal convection develop in this type of setup cannot be
ignored.
Focus for Friday shifts to afternoon precipitation chances. A
cold front will move into the Panhandle late in the day. South of
this front the overall surface pattern will be similar to today.
Winds will initially be veered toward the southwest but will begin
to back during the afternoon. Aloft, a weak mid level trough
located over New Mexico today will shift overhead for Friday.
Slight cooler temperatures in the mid levels in association with
this feature and slightly warmer temperatures at the surface south
of the front should result in some convective precipitation
developing, areas east of the I-27 corridor favored at this time.
.LONG TERM...
Whats left of Newton will still have some influence on our weather
heading into the weekend. Newtons remnants will graze West Texas
while being absorbed into the polar jet and may even trigger some
convection Friday afternoon across our eastern zones out ahead of
a cold front advancing south from the Texas Panhandle Friday night
into the early hours of Saturday. The window for any severe
tstorms hinted at in earlier model runs seems to be narrowing,
especially for our CWA. Though much of area will see some precip
with the front by early Saturday morning, highest amounts appear
to be in the Rolling Plains and southern South Plains.
We dry quickly behind the cold front Saturday, along with
weakening pressure gradient, winds will be light Saturday night
setting up for one our cooler nights in awhile with most locations
on the Caprock dropping into the 50s, slightly warmer to the east
off the Caprock. High temps rebound to seasonal norms for the
most part on Sunday and Monday while the next system strengthens
across the west. GFS and ECMWF have come into good agreement on an
unsettled pattern for the middle of next week that could bring
another round of impactful precip amounts.
&&
.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
99/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
336 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016
.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016
Mid afternoon objective surface analysis indicated a warm front
from northern Kansas into southern IA. Convective development
along this boundary is the initial concern tonight. Synoptic-scale
forcing for ascent is limited this evening with weak height rises.
In addition the best low-level WAA associated with the developing
nocturnal low-level jet is more focused to our north and west.
This along with a good deal of cloud cover along the boundary
makes CI chances limited. Nevertheless the latest objective
analysis indicates that the MLCIN is weakening along this boundary
with some convergence as the moisture returns north this evening.
Given the thermodynamic and kinematic environment will include a
slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two this evening
over the southern CWA. The more likely scenario is for convection
to increase to the west of our FA after midnight associated with
the the LLJ ahead of the height falls over the Great Basin. This
activity will likely move into the northwest CWA around 08-10Z.
Point forecast soundings indicate around 30 kt of EBWD and 1500
j/KG of MUCAPE and thus a stronger storm overnight is possible in
the northwest CWA.
A strong 80-100 kt H3 jet dives into the northern Plains on Friday
and will drive a strong cold front through the CWA. There remains
some uncertainty to convective evolution during the day due to the
effects from the overnight convection, but with low-level moisture
in place beneath seasonably steep mid-level lapse rates leading
to 1500-2000 j/KG of MLCAPE during the late morning into the
afternoon, along with the strong frontal forcing, we should
generally see an increase in convection from late morning through
the afternoon and we have likely pops going. Although the bulk of
the stronger winds are behind the boundary on Friday, enough cross
boundary from does exists from EBWD of 30-40 kt and likely an
organized linear MCS will develop. Some wind and hail threat will
likely develop as this moves into SE Neb and SW IA.
Once the cold front sweeps through the CWA by Friday evening very
quiet weather is then expected through the weekend with highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016
Longer range models are still in general agreement that a trough
will move into the northern Rockies toward late in the weekend and
move into the high Plains early next week. This will allow for a
cold front to work through the CWA on Monday with a chance of
showers and maybe a few thunderstorms into Monday night before
this shifts to the south for Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT THU SEP 8 2016
MVFR conditions with low clouds are hanging out over southeast
Nebraska and the RAP tries to mix them out as south winds return
deeper moisture northward later this afternoon and tonight,
however patchy MVFR conditions are possible at KLNK and KOMA.
Isolated convection possible, however due to uncertainty will not
include in the TAF. Models vary on convection overnight, however
better consistency with the cold front that moves in Friday
morning. Some MVFR/IFR fog possible ahead of the front and
included tsra/mvfr cigs at all three sites.
&&
.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boustead
LONG TERM...Boustead
AVIATION...Zapotocny