Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/17/16

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
850 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The very warm and dry conditions of late will come to an end
beginning Sunday as more significant monsoon moisture returns north
from Mexico. Abundant moisture next week will increase the chance of
showers and thunderstorms, mostly in Arizona, along with slightly
cooler temperatures.

.DISCUSSION...

Another down-day for our monsoon today/this evening, perhaps the
last one for a while. Thunderstorm development did get closer to our
cwa, with activity developing over southeast AZ, mainly south and
east of Tucson, and over the white mountains. Although sfc dewpoints
did surge into the 70s over parts of southeast CA and the Lower
Colorado River Valley earlier today, they dropped back into the 30s
and 40s this evening, as drier air was mixed down to the sfc. The
latest HRRR/RAP13 high-res models continues to show the current
activity over southeast AZ dissipating later tonight before it
reaches our cwa, but debris clouds from these storms will likely
move northward over South-Central/SW AZ later tonight, which will
likely keep our overnight lows elevated, with lows aoa 90 degrees
likely for the Phoenix urban core. As far as the forecast for
tomorrow is concerned, the HRRR and RAP13, as well as the NAM12 are
all showing a weak disturbance moving northward into SE/South-
Central AZ on Sunday. This disturbance, combined with a significant
increase in PWATs through the column should be enough to finally
trigger at least isolated thunderstorm activity over the eastern
portions of our cwa, with the best chance for wetting rains being
over the higher terrain east of Phoenix. However, the leftover
debris clouds from tonight`s storms could also delay/inhibit the
development of showers/storms, if these clouds linger much past the
mid-morning hours on Sunday. For the short-term, other than some
minor adjustments to the hourly grids, inherited forecasts are
looking good.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Sunday through Saturday...

The stage is set for significant amounts of monsoon moisture to
finally return north into AZ from Mexico later tonight, Sunday,
Monday, and continue the remainder of the week.

Morning weather balloon soundings and radar VAD wind profiles showed
the northern edge of the monsoon moisture boundary was noted from
Tucson west to Yuma. Last night low level moisture surged north
through the lower Colorado River Valley at Yuma as gusty southerly
winds sent surface dewpoints rocketing to near 70 deg F, including
the adjacent areas of Imperial and Blythe CA. Gusty south winds
through the lower Colorado River Valley were mechanically generated
from northward moving outflows produced by massive overnight
convection in northwest Mexico. Afternoon surface dewpoints along
and adjacent to the lower Colorado River Valley have settled into
the mid 60s with day time heating and mixing.

Otherwise models forecast the flow aloft at all levels to turn more
southerly from Mexico, again importing more moisture to get this
monsoon started again. Additionally, Saturday afternoon water vapor
satellite imagery showed numerous disturbances of various scales,
and deformation zones across all of Mexico and over the offshore
Pacific. Movement of these features are something to watch and
anticipate for next week, all of which have the potential to
generate widespread convective outbreaks. In the short term through
Monday we don`t see any significant disturbances moving into
southwest and south central AZ, portions of our forecast area,
although the GFS has one modeled for Tuesday coming out of the
Mexican state of Chihuahua.

For late tonight and early Sunday, more thunderstorms activity is
expected just south of the Mexican border. Models forecast a
significant amount of convective debris clouds to move north into
AZ, thick enough to develop considerable virga and perhaps light
showers from the Colorado River Valley east to Phoenix. Therefore a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms are forecast late tonight
and Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon and evening will be a mostly
cloudy and relatively cool over southwest and south central AZ, with
a slight chance of showers redeveloping later in the day and evening.

From Monday on, significant monsoon moisture will be in place for
most of next week. We will treat this period as a low grade monsoon
period, meaning a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, with a
better chance in the mountains, until we can target a significant
mid/upper level disturbance for more meaningful storm activity.

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Dry conditions to prevail through at least midday Sunday, with some
mid/high level cigs moving in from the remains of thunderstorms
developing over far southeast AZ, with bases mainly aoa 12k feet.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Sun afternoon/evening
as the monsoon becomes more active over the region, but confidence
is too low to put thunderstorms in the tafs at this time. Winds to
mainly follow typical diurnal trends, with perhaps an early return
of easterly winds on Sun evening as outflows from distant storms
move into the region.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Winds to favor the southeast most of tonight and Sunday at KIPL.
Winds will favor the south next 24 hours at KBLH with off and on
gustiness, especially this afternoon. Peak gusts to reach 25kt at
times. Scattered to broken mainly high level debris clouds to affect
the terminals next 24 hours as well with bases mostly above 15k feet.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...

Higher monsoon moisture values will overall affect much of the area
during the period. This will bring a day to day chance of mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher terrain east and
southeast of Phoenix with slight chances also over portions the
south-central Arizona deserts. Thunderstorms activity will likely
also promote strong outflow winds into the lower deserts.
Temperatures through the period will be near normals as the moisture
levels shouldn`t be high enough to dramatically affect temperatures.
Minimum relative humidities will fall in between a 15 to 25 percent
range, highest from Phoenix east into southern Gila County.
Afternoon southwest winds 10 to 15 mph each day with periodic gusts
to 20 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Percha/Vasquez
AVIATION...Percha/Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Eureka CA

311 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures across the interior will gradually
moderate over the weekend as an upper level trough develops
offshore the Pacific Northwest.

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery showed patchy fog and stratus creeping
northward toward Pt Arena early this morning. A few of the high resolution
models, namely the HRRR and ARW, showed winds becoming southerly nearshore
this morning. Based on satellite imagery and the sparse surface observations,
the HRRR/ARW are most likely correct. Expect at least patchy stratus
and fog along the immediate shoreline of Mendocino county this morning.
The models were incongruent with wind fields this afternoon. The consensus
is for winds to become northerly and northwesterly which should force
the stratus back southward.

Other than the patchy fog and stratus, skies have been clear across
the region overnight. A few high clouds will stream across the area
today, however, sunshine will remain abundant. High tempertures today
will be very similar to yesterday in the interior. 24HR trend
monitor indicated many sites a few degrees warmer than this time
last night. Thus, expect many readings in the 90s with a
handful of sites around 100-105F. Warm weather conditions will
continue over the weekend, but moderate slightly as an upper level
trough develops offshore the Pacific Northwest coast. By Sunday,
max temperatures in the hottest valley locations will most likely
be only in the mid 80s. Quite pleasant for this time of year in
the interior. This trough will likely produce an increase in night
and morning coastal stratus Saturday night into Sunday. It is
unclear at this time if stratus will clear out at all along the
coast. It may take most of the day to burn off the stratus. The
approaching upper trough does not appear to have much in the way
of moist air. The GFS does indicate some potential for isolated
showers over the Trinity mountains. The NAM12 and ECMWF were drier
and not as unstable. For now will lean toward the drier
NAM12/ECMWF.

Long range models maintain a weak trough offshore through much of
next week but have it gradually shifting westward as upper level
ridging over the central portion of the country expands northwestward
each day. Thus, expect interior temperatures to gradually warm to
near or above normal levels mid to late next week. Coastal areas
will most likely remain near normal which means the usual dose of
night and morning stratus overcast.

.AVIATION...MVFR to IFR conditions and light winds to calm conditions will
continue at KCEC through early this morning with the lower conditions
due to reduced ceilings and visibilities. VFR conditions and light winds
to calm conditions will prevail at KACV through the early morning with
MVFR conditions possible before sunrise due to reduced ceilings and/or
visibilities. VFR conditions and moderate and gusty winds will prevail at
KCEC and KACV this afternoon. VFR conditions and light winds to calm
conditions will continue at KUKI the next few days.

.MARINE...An offshore high pressure ridge coupled with an inland thermal
low pressure trough will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the
waters the next few days. Therefore the winds and seas will remain elevated
through this weekend. Winds and seas will be higher across the outer waters.
The winds and short period seas will begin diminishing Saturday. Small craft
advisories will continue across the southern near shore waters through early
Sunday morning. Gale warnings will continue across the outer waters through
early Sunday morning due to gale force wind gusts. A gale warning will
continue across the northern near shore waters through early Saturday morning.
Winds and seas will peak today and tonight.

.EKA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ450.
Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ470-475.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ455.

Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

628 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

At 20Z, WV imagery shows a complex of storms off over the Dakotas
moving east/southeast into the Upper MS Valley. Meanwhile a another
upper level low pressure system and associated shortwave continues
to work into eastern MT. Further south, a plume of mid to upper
level moisture can be seen streaming through the Central Rockies
into Nebraska. Subtle shortwaves continue to work through this
region. At the surface, an area of low pressure is over
northeastern CO vicinity with a warm boundary stretched along and
near the KS/NE border.

Most of the severe activity today should remain north of the outlook
area and be associated with the two northern systems. However, there
is a small chance that storms develop this afternoon and evening
over northeastern CO and southwestern NE before organizing into a
small MCS that could potentially propagate into north central and
northeastern KS mainly along the KS/NE border late tonight into
early Sunday morning. A LLJ is expected to develop late this
evening and veer into the area by early morning. This should help
provide instability and convergence needed to keep at least some
storms going as they move into the area. The likely threat when
they arrive would be some strong gusty winds.

For the day Sunday, clearing should continue over northern areas of
the CWA. As heights continue to rise throughout the day, do expect
that some areas could begin to approach heat advisory levels with
high temps over northeast Kansas pushing into upper 90s and some
100s over southwestern counties into north central Kansas. Headline
may need to be issued by overnight shift but will hold for now.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

Sunday Night through Tuesday...

Frontal boundary is expected to move into north central and
northeast Kansas Sunday night. Low level jet increases through the
evening then veers to near westerly by monday morning. There is not
much in the way of convergence along the front across northeast
Kansas and looks to focus to the northeast of the forecast area.
Therefore will leave small pops across the northern CWA north of
Interstate 70 Sunday night into Monday morning. Have kept small pops
going for areas north of Interstate 70 with the northeast return of
the frontal boundary Monday night into Tuesday morning. Lows Sunday
night will be in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures warm back into the
upper 90s near central Kansas on Monday with lower 90s near the
Nebraska border. Heat indices on Monday look to be in the 98 to 104
degree range. By Tuesday expect temperatures to warm into the mid
and upper 90s once again with afternoon heat indices in the 100 to
103 degree range.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...

Mid-level ridging will be in place across the Central Plains for the
majority of the period. Good agreement amongst the EC and GFS with
the stout ridge overhead through Thursday. High temperatures will
soar into the middle 90s to perhaps 100 degrees Tuesday through
Thursday. Plentiful boundary layer moisture will contribute to upper
60 to lower 70 degree dewpoints. This combination of heat and
humidity will result in heat indicies in the 100 to 110 degree range
Tuesday through Thursday. These very hot and humid conditions may
continue into the weekend, however model agreement diverges for
Friday and Saturday. Both models have a trough across the Northern
Plains, however it`s effects on the forecast area differ. The GFS
shifts the ridge axis across the Rockies and sweeps a weak cold
front through the area. While the EC, keeps the frontal boundary
well north of the area, allowing the heat wave to continue.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Winds will lose
their gusts by 01Z and become sustained near 10 knots. Cannot rule
out an isolated thunderstorm at the terminals overnight, although
the better chances are along the KS/NE border. LLWS is the biggest
concern through the period. Have introduced LLWS at 1500 feet at
all terminals as the LLJ increases to near 40 knots from the SSW.
Winds will increase by 14Z Sunday morning with sustained 10-15
knots and gusts 20-25 knots.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Baerg/53
AVIATION...Baerg

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
624 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Had to make some significant changes to the forecast through this
evening. Added isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the grids
and forecast through about midnight, to account for convection
developing in SE Colorado. Latest HRRR loosely develops these
storms into another complex this evening. Other models, including
the 18z NAM, do not agree with this, keeping most storms north of
SW Kansas tonight. Given the HRRR`s performance last night, went
ahead and added some pops. Forecast evolution this evening is more
uncertain than usual. MLCAPE axis of 2500 J/kg across W/SW Kansas
as of 3 pm would suggest the HRRR is on to something. Lifted index
across the western zones down to -8. Some storms may be marginally
severe with hail to quarters and winds to 60 mph. Widespread
severe weather is not expected...however, models do not appear to
have a handle on the current trends, and confidence is lower than
usual.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Much quieter weather pattern unfolding for SW Kansas. A virtually
clear sky early this afternoon. S/SE winds will become strong and
gusty this afternoon, in response to a 994 mb surface low near
Limon, Colorado and about a 10 mb surface pressure gradient
between Syracuse and Kiowa. Some gusts of 30-35 mph will be noted.
12z NAM and HRRR model runs, which did an excellent job
forecasting last night`s thunderstorms, both keep tonight`s
expected MCS activity mainly north of SW Kansas, across NW Kansas
into Nebraska. Kept a slight chance of convection for northern
Ellis county through tonight, as that zone will be closest to the
Nebraska convection, but am not expecting much. A strong
pronounced low level jet is progged by all models to develop after
sunset, with 850 mb winds as high as 60 kts. As such, south winds
will remain quite elevated all night. This, in turn, will keep
temperatures quite elevated, with most locales only falling to the
lower 70s Sunday morning.

Sunday...Mostly sunny and hot. Strong upper high begins to build
strongly into the plains, with 500 mb heights rising sharply from
590 dm Saturday, to 594 dm Sunday afternoon. Afternoon
temperatures will be hotter in response, but not as hot as some
guidance indicates. Lack of downslope, the upper high organizing
east of SW KS near the Ozarks, and most importantly, lush
vegetation and standing water from recent rainfall...will all slow
down the heating trend. GFS/MAV/MEX guidance in the 100s is too
hot for Sunday. Forecasted upper 90s for most zones, and wouldn`t
be surprised if I am still several degrees too warm. NAM/ECMWF
both suggest perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the far W/NW
zones late Sunday afternoon, but with weak shear and warming
temperatures aloft, am not expecting much.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

An extended stretch of typical summer weather...hot and dry...
will begin on Monday, and persist into next weekend. Little if any
day-to-day variation expected. Hot upper anticyclone establishes
near the Ozarks on Monday, and wallows around the southern plains,
slowly inching westward, ending up as a 598 dm upper high over SW
KS by Saturday. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper
90s for most locales through Wednesday. Starting about Thursday,
the topsoil will have dried enough, and the subsidence from the
upper ridge will have gotten close enough, to allow for widespread
triple digit heat. Morning low temperatures will hold in the low
to mid 70s for all locations. Rain/thunderstorm chances in this
pattern are remote, but not completely zero. Medium range models
suggest an isolated storm may clip the far W/NW zones during the
peak heating hours, farthest from the high pressure ridge`s
influence. Purposely kept all pop grids at slight chance (<25%)
with no significant rainfall expected.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Model soundings late this afternoon indicating what moisture that
will be spreading east across western Kansas overnight will be at
or above the 700mb level. As a result VFR conditions can be
expected. A few isolated thunderstorms may also be possible
between 03z and 09z Sunday as a weak upper level disturbance
crosses the Central Plains. Probability for convection at this
time appears low so will not mention thunderstorms in the 00z
TAFS. HRRR and NAM both were suggesting 45 to 55 knot winds
developing in the 950mb to 850mb level so will insert wind shear
into the TAFs overnight, especially between 06z and 12z Sunday.
Gusty southeast winds are expected to decrease some as the
atmosphere decouples overnight but wind speeds of around 15 knots
overnight can be expected. A cold front will move into western
Kansas on Sunday. By late day this frontal boundary is forecast to
be located near Garden City and Hays. As this cold front passes
the gusty southerly winds will shift to the north northeast. Ahead
of this front gusty south winds at 15 to 20 knots will continue
through late day.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 74 99 70 97 / 30 10 10 10
GCK 71 97 69 97 / 20 10 10 20
EHA 71 100 71 98 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 72 101 71 99 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 72 97 71 96 / 20 10 20 20
P28 75 100 73 99 / 10 0 10 10

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

345 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

At 20Z, Water Vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave continuing to
move through central and eastern Nebraska. The remnants of a
complex of storms from last night has slowly been working into
southeastern Nebraska. With relatively weak forcing associated with
the shortwave and conditional mid level lapse rates. This has kept
an area of showers and some stronger storms over south central
portions of Nebraska as afternoon heating has destabilized the local
environment ahead of storms. Meanwhile, upslope flow near a
stationary boundary over western KS and southeastern Colorado was
helping to support afternoon convection over the region. A weak
cold front remains stretched over south central and into east
central portions of Kansas into Missouri. Additionally, and outflow
boundary from the previously mentioned complex of storms over
Nebraska has finally made its way into northeastern and north
central Kansas and is currently stretched along the I-70 vicinity.

The forecast over the next 24 hours is such that small precip
chances will remain until the afternoon on Saturday. The complex of
remnant activity has struggled to build into the outlook area but
should continue to cause showers and potential thunderstorms over
mainly the northern counties and western counties of the CWA into
early this evening and tonight. SPC mesoanalysis suggests that
surface and MLCAPE is around 2500-3000 J/kg along I-70 but not much
has formed along the outflow boundary. Overnight, expecting that an
MCS will form and probably stay off to the southwest of the area,
but there is some potential that a few storms could work their way
into Central Kansas. But the bigger mechanism for overnight storm
potential seems to be associated with an area of isentropic lift
developing as the next upper low works into the Northern Rockies
into the Northern Plains by early morning helping to develop a warm
boundary stretching into the Central Plains region. Expect if
storms do form that they will generally work from southwest to
northeast through the area by mid to late morning time frame.

Temps have been suppressed a few degrees from the previous forecast
this afternoon across northern counties as the cooler outflow has
worked through the area earlier with a few showers and increased
cloud cover. Clouds should clear tomorrow with temps reaching the
mid to upper 80s over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

Saturday Night through Monday...

MCS exited east central Kansas early this afternoon with outflow
boundary pushing north to near the Nebraska border. Airmass in this
are much more unstable and allowing scattered convection to form,
aided by a strong compact upper jet over Iowa. Other convection
continues to develop in northwest Kansas in apparent mid level
convergence, but where moisture is also rather rich in the low levels
with dewpoints around 60 into northeast Colorado. Final area of note
is in northeast Montana where convection is rather widespread with
an upper wave making ESE progress into the Plains.

Tonight into Friday is again a low confidence forecast. Models
continue to struggle, even rapid update guidance, and this is not
surprising given mesoscale forcing from continued MCS activity.
Latest HRRR and experimental HRRR similar in convection developing
over central portions of the area late this afternoon, but have
doubts given lack of forcing and only slow airmass recovery. Will
continue with small chances into the early evening with northwest
Kansas activity having at least small chances to persist. Most
models keep the bulk of the night dry with little forcing for ascent
and drier air around 850mb behind the old front. Dewpoints down into
the middle 60s for much of the area should help negate fog chances,
but could have clear skies along with light winds again tonight for
redevelopment. Attention for convection should turn to the northwest
with decent agreement in storms persisting southeast with the
Montana wave. This may not arrive until midday Friday at the
earliest, but have kept small pops for late tonight west and on east
during the day. Wind speeds aloft and some directional shear will
help support a marginal severe weather concern.

Monday Night through Friday...

The main headline for the extended period is: HEAT! Upper-level
ridging will continue to build across the Central and Southern
Plains throughout next week. A few thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday morning/early afternoon as a weak wave rides across the
ridge. Tuesday`s high temperatures are bit tricky, as the rate of
cloud cover clearing will greatly impact temperatures. Temperatures
the remainder of the period will remain hot, with high temperatures
in the upper 90s to perhaps low 100s and lows in the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees. These very hot temperatures coupled with dew points
in the upper 60s and lower 70s will make for very uncomfortable
conditions. Heat indicies are expected to be in the 105 to 110+
degree range Wednesday through Friday. Unfortunately, the heat wave
looks to continue into next weekend as well.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

Small chances for thunderstorms to develop near the TAF sites
into this afternoon and early evening. Medium confidence due to
the overall environment and low level lift. So have mentioned VCTS
at all sites. Lower confidence at this point for overnight
development as better chances will be well off to the southwest
and west of the terminals. Low confidence of reduced vis at this
point near the 12Z time frame as increasing clouds are expected so
have left out of the forecast at this time. Winds veer to the SSE
with time but remain fairly light until probably after the period.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Baerg/53
AVIATION...Drake

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1114 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

Initial concern will be if there is any ongoing convection Friday
evening as models differ with MCS timing. The NAM has plenty of
convection at the start of the period, while the other operational
models are dry in the evening and then bring an MCS southeast across
Nebraska and into northern Kansas Late Friday night and early
Saturday. Have gone with a blend of solutions emphasizing later
timing and lingering through Saturday morning. Saturday night a wave
moves out of the Rockies and across the Central Plains.
Thunderstorms look to remain mainly across Nebraska and Iowa with
and may also affect areas north of interstate 70. Upper level ridge
slowly builds northward Sunday and Sunday night. A wave is forecast
to move across the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night which
will bring a frontal boundary into southern Nebraska by Monday
morning. The front begins to light northward Monday night into
Tuesday, then lifts northeast on Tuesday. May see some convection
along the boundary and southeastward moving storms would perhaps
clip the far northeast counties of northeast Kansas through Tuesday
morning. The upper ridge builds across the Central Plains Tuesday
through Thursday with the main westerlies near the Canadian border.
High temperatures in the 80s are expected on Saturday then warming
into the 90s for the rest of the period. Areas of north central
Kansas and Central Kansas will warm to near 100 from Tuesday through
Thursday. Lows in the 70s.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

Light winds should eventually lead to sufficient cooling for some
MVFR VIS conds to develop mainly at TOP overnight. Light or calm
winds should become ENE Friday while a cluster of t-storms is
expected to drop south out of NE and could impact MHK by midday
but confidence in timing and location remain too low to mention
anymore than VCTS.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Omitt

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
302 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will return over the coming week with
the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft is in the process of shifting
to a position over the central United States. Models show the
high center then remaining in place into next weekend. The main
impact of this shift will be the development of southerly flow
with an increase in moisture and monsoon activity.

For Today...A large organized thunderstorms complex failed to
form over northwest Mexico over the past 24 hours with no
significant push of low level moisture anticipated. What northern
Arizona will see is an increase in mid to upper level moisture,
the remnants of weaker storms that have been forming over Mexico.
The moisture aloft and a lack of low level moisture will combine
for a weakly unstable environment. The best chance for showers and
storms will be over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
region where the deepest moisture resides. Elsewhere, only a
slight chance of showers and storms. Cloud bases will be
relatively high so expect gusty winds of 30 to 45 mph in the
vicinity of any storms that do form.

The remainder of the week...Moisture will continue to creep in from
the south but the amount will be dependent on the level of
thunderstorm activity over northwest Mexico. At this time,
the overall pattern does not favor the development of a large
thunderstorm complex over Mexico which is critical for significant
moisture surges. In addition, models are consistently showing mid
to upper level cloudiness day and night early in the week which
normally puts a damper on instability and convective activity.
Later in the week, intrusions of drier low level air from the
west will become an issue. The net result will be generally low
grade monsoon activity with the best chance for wetter storms
extending from the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim to the
Chuska Mountains.

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours for most of the area. Btwn 17z Sun-02z Mon expect Sct-
nmrs showers and thunderstorms in and around the White mtns with
ocnl mvfr conditions. Elsewhere isolated high based storms are
possible with wind gusts to 40kt.

Surface winds SW 15-25 kts this afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture is slowly increasing
from south to north this morning, the leading edge along a line from
Chinle to Valle at 3 am. North of this line the dry southwest flow
experienced by all the past several days is weakening. For this
afternoon, the White mountains area should see scattered
thunderstorms and the best chance for wetting rain amounts.
Elsewhere only isolated high based storm coverage is forecast,
though afternoon cloud cover should be greater than the past several
days. Gusty outflow winds are probable from any storms or showers
this afternoon and evening.

Monday through Thursday...Moisture to slowly increase across
northern Arizona, with shower and thunderstorm chances each day.
Winds may become erratic and gusty near thunderstorms.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
230 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An increase in clouds and humidity can be expected during the next
few days along with a slight chance of thunderstorms...mainly east of
the Lower Colorado River Valley. High temperatures will also be a bit
cooler. Storm chances on the lower deserts will be slight...with
better chances over the higher terrain and over southeast Arizona.
During the latter half of the week, storm chances will dwindle and
temperatures will increase to above normal levels.

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...
A couple of MCVs over southern AZ are producing isolated weak
convective showers early this morning embedded within debris
cloudiness. The debris cloudiness has been slowly tracking northward
and will lead to increasing clouds over our forecast area the rest of
the nighttime hours and linger well into the morning. This will make
for rather warm low temperatures. But the subsequent highs today will
be a bit cooler. Expecting the clouds to thin out during the
afternoon. Meanwhile, anticyclonic flow will become centered further
east leading to deep southerly flow. This will help advect moisture
northward. This in turn leads to CAPE. However, there is model
disagreement on how much moisture there will be and how far west it
will get. Both the GFS and NAM keep it out of the western third of AZ
while the ECMWF is more generous (though that is often the case).
Another key factor will be the amount of storm activity over SE AZ -
especially due to the southerly steering flow. The more active that
area is, then the better potential we will have due to more and
stronger outflows providing a source of lift over our area. If debris
clouds linger throughout the day then activity will be more limited.
Latest hi-res models are not overly enthusiastic about storm
development today/tonight over our area. While we are not looking at
widespread measurable precip, areas of blowing dust will definitely
be possible.

Monday and Tuesday...
The flow pattern over and near North America amplifies on Monday as west
coast troughing deepens and the downstream ridge expands northward
over the Plains. Both the GFS and NAM show declining moisture from
the west on Monday with a further downtrend on Tuesday - despite the
remnants of an inverted trough moving through - while the ECMWF holds
on. PoPs remain modest. With lingering southerly flow, held on to
nocturnal PoPs due to potential for debris showers. Far to the south
and southwest are tropical storm Estelle and Hurricane Darby but it`s
not looking like they will be a factor for our weather.

Wednesday through Saturday...
The "tug of war" between the continental ridge and coastal troughing
continues the rest of the week. There is some model agreement that
the westerlies will flatten the ridge eventually with the ECMWF being
on the slow end but even it depicts some declining moisture late in
the week. Thus the latter half of the week is looking rather low
grade for storm potential. Unfortunately, there doesn`t look to be
any cooling and in fact temps climb (flirting with Excessive Heat
criteria in some portions of southeast CA and southwest AZ).

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...Percha/Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
912 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will provide scattered mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. A slight
decrease in daily coverage of showers and thunderstorms may then
occur Thursday into next weekend.

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continued
across parts of southeast Arizona late this evening. Latest HRRR
solutions still hint at an MCV forming over Sonora Mexico tonight,
and tracking northwest along the International Border tomorrow. This
scenario looked reasonable based on the thunderstorm complex that
managed to develop this afternoon and evening south of the
International Border. The general trend of diminishing showers and
thunderstorms should continue tonight, with plenty of clouds over
the area to start the day tomorrow. Current forecast seemed to
handle the trends well, so only minor adjustments expected on the
evening update. Please refer to the additional sections in this
product for more details.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/06Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA across the area late tonight into Sunday
morning. Expect scattered -TSRA/-SHRA to return Sunday afternoon.
Brief wind gusts to 45 kts and MVFR conditions may occur with
stronger TSRA. Surface wind will generally be variable in direction
less than 12 kts thru the period. However, surface wind east of KTUS
Sunday afternoon will be nwly at 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...Adequate moisture will lead to scattered mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms through at least Wednesday. A
slight decrease in daily coverage may then occur starting Thursday
and continuing into next weekend. Outside of thunderstorm winds,
expect typical diurnal 20-ft wind patterns. However, gusty northwest
winds should occur Sunday and Monday across the Upper Gila River
Valley including Safford.

.PREV DISCUSSION...If a remnant MCV exists early Sunday morning, the
potential exists that Sunday may be the proverbial down-day
regarding precip chances as the system moves north of the area.

However, given a somewhat low confidence in this scenario, have
essentially made only very minor adjustments to the inherited PoPs
Sunday and during much of the upcoming week. Thus, have continued
with scattered showers/tstms across much of the area Sunday
afternoon/evening, and similar coverage of showers/tstms Monday
through Wednesday during the afternoon hours. A slight chance of
showers/tstms exists during the late night/early morning hours.
Thereafter, slightly less daily coverage of showers/tstms should
exist Thursday into Saturday.

Have noted fairly large discrepancies between the operational 16/12Z
GFS/ECMWF during the next 7-day forecast period. For instance and in
general, the ECMWF was markedly wetter versus the GFS during the
afternoon/evening hours, whereas the GFS was markedly wetter versus
the ECMWF during the nighttime/early morning hours. There were
several nighttime periods that the ECMWF depicted precip-free
conditions area-wide, while the GFS suggested isolated to perhaps
scattered coverage of showers/tstms for any given nighttime period.

At any rate, daytime temps Sun-Wed will be quite close to seasonal
normals followed by a gradual warming trend Thur-Sat.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
850 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Sunday through Saturday...

The stage is set for significant amounts of monsoon moisture to
finally return north into AZ from Mexico later tonight, Sunday,
Monday, and continue the remainder of the week.

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Percha/Vasquez
AVIATION...Percha/Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

326 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

A cluster of storms has formed along the KS/NE state line in western
KS, and is currently moving eastward. Ahead of the cluster mucape is
around 1500-2000 j/kg, which spreads into portions of eastern KS.
Also, the low level jet is maximized over this region, and is
beginning to veer, which may allow the storms to maintain strength
the next few hours. The high res model guidance shows these storms
possibly forming into a bowing segment across north central KS. If
strong enough the convective cores may be capable of transporting
higher winds down to the surface. The latest run of the HRRR is
advertising a small area of damaging winds within the bowing
segment. SPC mesoanalysis shows an area of high downdraft cape over
north central KS that would support the possibility of strong winds.
If the storm cluster can reach northeast KS it should weaken as the
low level jet decreases, and becomes more focused on the backside.
The forecast area should clear out later today. Temperatures will
heat up ahead of a cold front moving southward through NE. High
temperatures should range from mid 90s to the lower 100s. Dew points
will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. The combination of
heat and humidity will cause heat indices to reach 105 for several
hours this afternoon across east central KS. The cold front is
forecasted to reach far southeast NE in the early morning hours.
Models are developing showers and storms along this front across
northern KS in the predawn hours. The instability is not forecasted
to be that high during this timeframe therefore the severe threat is
low. The GFS is hinting at some isentropic lift over eastern KS
ahead of the front, and is developing convection around sunrise.
Although the moisture in those layers appears rather limited so have
kept only slight chances.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

Kept some slight chances for thunder in the northern counties into
early Monday as convection may still linger before 18z, although
better chances are north. Could see a repeat of this late Monday
into early Tuesday morning as the LLJ once again interacts with a
shortwave moving over the ridge and across the front just to our
north, generating storms to our north. Beyond these two time
periods, have pulled chances for rain as the strong upper high
moves over the state into the week. Temperatures Monday and
Tuesday are forecast in the 90s, with heat indices just shy of
advisory criteria. If dewpoints rise a few degrees however, would
likely be enough to bump much of the area into heat advisory
numbers.

Mid level temps rise about 2C each day Wednesday into Friday, and
surface temperatures reflect this increase, with many areas in
our western half over the century mark for much of this period.
We may end up with several days of heat advisory criteria between
Wednesday and into the weekend.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

LLWS is expected as the winds in the 1000-2000 ft layer increase
through the night, peaking around 43-48 kts at the 1500 ft level.
VFR conditions are likely through the TAF with a small chance for
showers or TS at MHK 10Z- 14Z and even smaller chance at TOP/FOE
12Z-15Z.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1201 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

Sunday Night through Tuesday...

Tuesday Night through Saturday...

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Baerg/53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...Updated for Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

VFR conditions are expected as warm upper ridging moves into the
Central Plains. An isolated thunderstorm is possible near KHYS
this morning, but not enough confidence to put into forecast. A 50
to 55kt low level jet will continue through 12-15Z.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 99 70 97 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 69 97 69 97 / 10 10 10 20
EHA 71 100 71 98 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 69 101 71 99 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 71 97 71 96 / 20 10 20 20
P28 72 100 73 99 / 10 0 10 10

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Kruse

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
837 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will return over the coming week with
the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day. Erratic
gusty winds will be the main threats today.

.DISCUSSION...Monsoon moisture will continue to surge northward
today as we transition from a dry to wet Monsoon weather pattern.
One of the threats today will be from erratic gusty winds near
thunderstorms and showers. The best chances for shower activity
today will be along and south of the Mogollon Rim region. The
boundary between the dry and moist airmass this morning, as shown
by precipitable water is over Munds Park 10 miles south of
Flagstaff.

.PREV DISCUSSION /302 AM MST/...High pressure aloft is in the
process of shifting to a position over the central United States.
Models show the high center then remaining in place into next
weekend. The main impact of this shift will be the development of
southerly flow with an increase in moisture and monsoon activity.

For Today...A large organized thunderstorms complex failed to form
over northwest Mexico over the past 24 hours with no significant
push of low level moisture anticipated. What northern Arizona will
see is an increase in mid to upper level moisture, the remnants of
weaker storms that have been forming over Mexico. The moisture
aloft and a lack of low level moisture will combine for a weakly
unstable environment. The best chance for showers and storms will
be over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains region where
the deepest moisture resides. Elsewhere, only a slight chance of
showers and storms. Cloud bases will be relatively high so expect
gusty winds of 30 to 45 mph in the vicinity of any storms that do
form.

The remainder of the week...Moisture will continue to creep in
from the south but the amount will be dependent on the level of
thunderstorm activity over northwest Mexico. At this time, the
overall pattern does not favor the development of a large
thunderstorm complex over Mexico which is critical for significant
moisture surges. In addition, models are consistently showing mid
to upper level cloudiness day and night early in the week which
normally puts a damper on instability and convective activity.
Later in the week, intrusions of drier low level air from the west
will become an issue. The net result will be generally low grade
monsoon activity with the best chance for wetter storms extending
from the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim to the Chuska
Mountains.

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours for most of the area. After 17z through the the
afternoon hours scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in
and around the White mtns with brief intrusions into MVFR conditions
near storms. Elsewhere scattered high based storms are possible with
wind gusts to 40kt.

Surface winds SW 15-25 kts this afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

Monday through Thursday...Moisture to slowly increase across
northern Arizona, with shower and thunderstorm chances each day.
Winds may become erratic and gusty near thunderstorms.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...Bohlin/McCollum
AVIATION...Suk
FIRE WEATHER...DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
837 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will return over the coming week with
the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day. Erratic
gusty winds will be the main threats today.

For Today...A large organized thunderstorms complex failed to form
over northwest Mexico over the past 24 hours with no significant
push of low level moisture anticipated. What northern Arizona will
see is an increase in mid to upper level moisture, the remnants of
weaker storms that have been forming over Mexico. The moisture
aloft and a lack of low level moisture will combine for a weakly
unstable environment. The best chance for showers and storms will
be over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains region where
the deepest moisture resides. Elsewhere, only a slight chance of
showers and storms. Cloud bases will be relatively high so expect
gusty winds of 30 to 45 mph in the vicinity of any storms that do
form.

The remainder of the week...Moisture will continue to creep in
from the south but the amount will be dependent on the level of
thunderstorm activity over northwest Mexico. At this time, the
overall pattern does not favor the development of a large
thunderstorm complex over Mexico which is critical for significant
moisture surges. In addition, models are consistently showing mid
to upper level cloudiness day and night early in the week which
normally puts a damper on instability and convective activity.
Later in the week, intrusions of drier low level air from the west
will become an issue. The net result will be generally low grade
monsoon activity with the best chance for wetter storms extending
from the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim to the Chuska
Mountains.

Surface winds SW 15-25 kts this afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

Monday through Thursday...Moisture to slowly increase across
northern Arizona, with shower and thunderstorm chances each day.
Winds may become erratic and gusty near thunderstorms.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...Bohlin/McCollum
AVIATION...Suk
FIRE WEATHER...DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
830 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

Update for discussion below. Tucson sounding was not incomplete.
Local computer mistakingly terminated the Tucson sounding plot at
25k.

.DISCUSSION...

It was a little disappointing this morning to wake up to a southern
AZ airmass that was not up to monsoon moisture standards. Certainly
we thought by 12z the monsoon moisture boundary would have raced
north passed Phoenix, and on to greater points north. Instead the
northern edge of the monsoon moisture boundary had just creeped and
wavered ever so slightly north from its position in far southern AZ
yesterday, to a few miles south of Phoenix and over to Yuma. And,
heavy quantities of mid level moisture that were expected to
have infiltrated a large part of southwest and south central AZ
from Mexico by 12z, including over the cities of Phoenix and Yuma,
have been delayed. Isolated showers and thunderstorms were mainly
noted in southern AZ around 4 am mst just southwest of Gila Bend AZ,
and near Tucson (mainly light showers).

However, the morning Tucson weather balloon sounding did show
saturated conditions between 16 thsd msl to 25 thsd msl (the balloon
sounding was terminated at 25 thsd ft), with moisture profiles
indicative of heavy virga and possibly a few light showers. And,
note the 20 knot southeast wind at 500 mb (H5), 5 knots on the PHX
sounding at H5, telling signs of a minor 500 mb disturbance
associated with the Tucson mid level cloudiness and virga showers.
Dense mid level clouds from Tucson and vicinity are forecast
to spread north toward Phoenix and surrounding areas throughout the
day. Note: a quick glance at the GFS 06z run showed this H5
disturbance near Tucson.

Also, based on the incomplete Tucson sounding it was hard to
determine whether there was any elevated C.A.P.E potential that
could be triggered by the H5 disturbance, or any inbound gravity
waves for today. Therefore the slight chance of shower/thunderstorm
possibilities for today will continue over the south central AZ
deserts and mountains. The only update will be to include PHX in
a slight chance of shower possibilities for this afternoon since
much thicker mid level clouds from Tucson work north.

Additionally, an easterly wave currently seen over west Texas near
Big Bend is modeled to move west into the Mexican state of Chihuahua
later today, then set off more convection in Sonora early
tonight. This will result more moisture flowing north into AZ under
increasing southerly flow. On Monday, in the absence of any well
defined mid/upper level disturbance, the low grade minimum monsoon
will continue, meaning that a slight chance of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will continue, until they don`t. No
updates to Monday`s forecast.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...455 AM MST...

Today and tonight...
A couple of MCVs over southern AZ are producing isolated weak
convective showers early this morning embedded within debris
cloudiness. The debris cloudiness has been slowly tracking northward
and will lead to increasing clouds over our forecast area the rest of
the nighttime hours and linger well into the morning. This will make
for rather warm low temperatures. But the subsequent highs today will
be a bit cooler. Expecting the clouds to thin out during the
afternoon. Meanwhile, anticyclonic flow will become centered further
east leading to deep southerly flow. This will help advect moisture
northward. This in turn leads to CAPE. However, there is model
disagreement on how much moisture there will be and how far west it
will get. Both the GFS and NAM keep it out of the western third of AZ
while the ECMWF is more generous (though that is often the case).
Another key factor will be the amount of storm activity over SE AZ -
especially due to the southerly steering flow. The more active that
area is, then the better potential we will have due to more and
stronger outflows providing a source of lift over our area. If debris
clouds linger throughout the day then activity will be more limited.
Latest hi-res models are not overly enthusiastic about storm
development today/tonight over our area. While we are not looking at
widespread measurable precip, areas of blowing dust will definitely
be possible.

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

A much more monsoonal circulation pattern has become established
with increasing amounts of moisture flowing into the central deserts
from the south/southeast today. Disturbances embedded in the flow
will lead to occasional showers and thunderstorms, beginning later
this morning and continuing into the afternoon. Timing of these
disturbances is difficult and as such no mention of thunder or
showers has been made in the latest TAF package. Will simply go with
persistent scattered to broken mid/upper level cloud decks over the
next 24 hours with bases initially mostly above 15k feet but
lowering to 10-12k by the late afternoon and evening.

It`s possible that clouds and showers this morning may stabilize the
atmosphere a bit and reduce the threat for evening convection and in
any case we are only looking at rain or storm chances around 10-15
percent this evening. Expect continued thick broken mid/hi cloud
decks for most of the nighttime hours tonight. Wind will favor
typical diurnal speeds and directions next 24 hours with southeast
winds becoming southwest/west by mid afternoon or so. May see a few
gusts later this afternoon over 15kt but thick cloud cover would
likely decrease thermals/instability and therefore gust potential.

One additional caveat: should storms develop in the central deserts
this afternoon/evening, stronger and gusty outflow winds could
develop and move into the terminals from variable directions,
although the most likely directions would be south to southeast.
This is something we will keep an eye on and make updates to the
TAFs as needed today.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

A more monsoonal circulation has become established across the
western deserts into southeast California, allowing more mid/upper
level debris cloud decks to spread across the area. Expect
persistent sct-bkn decks mostly at or above 14k feet today and into
the evening hours. There may even be a morning shower, sprinkle or a
weak thunderstorm but threat is too low to mention in the TAFs at
this time. Winds to favor the southeast next 24 hours at KIPL with
elevated and possibly gusty winds this afternoon into the evening.
Winds at KBLH to favor the south today and tonight, gusting over
22kt at times this afternoon.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...

Higher monsoon moisture values will overall affect much of the area
during the period. This will bring a day to day chance of mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher terrain east and
southeast of Phoenix with slight chances also over portions the
south-central Arizona deserts. Thunderstorms activity will likely
also promote strong outflow winds into the lower deserts.
Temperatures through Wednesday will be near normals as the moisture
levels shouldn`t be high enough to dramatically affect temperatures.
Starting Thursday we will see warming over the deserts with most
locations reaching or exceeding 110 by Friday as moisture values
continue to thin. Minimum relative humidities will fall in between a
15 to 25 percent range, highest from Phoenix east into southern Gila
County. Minimum humidities will be lower across southeast California
during the five day period, mostly below 15 percent. Afternoon
southwest winds 10 to 15 mph each day with periodic gusts to 20 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Vasquez/AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/CB

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
815 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...455 AM MST...

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...

Higher monsoon moisture values will overall affect much of the area
during the period. This will bring a day to day chance of mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher terrain east and
southeast of Phoenix with slight chances also over portions the
south-central Arizona deserts. Thunderstorms activity will likely
also promote strong outflow winds into the lower deserts.
Temperatures through Wednesday will be near normals as the moisture
levels shouldn`t be high enough to dramatically affect temperatures.
Starting Thursday we will see warming over the deserts with most
locations reaching or exceeding 110 by Friday as moisture values
continue to thin. Minimum relative humidities will fall in between a
15 to 25 percent range, highest from Phoenix east into southern Gila
County. Minimum humidities will be lower across southeast California
during the five day period, mostly below 15 percent. Afternoon
southwest winds 10 to 15 mph each day with periodic gusts to 20 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Vasquez/AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/CB

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
455 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.UPDATE...Updated aviation and fire weather discussions.

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...

Higher monsoon moisture values will overall affect much of the area
during the period. This will bring a day to day chance of mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher terrain east and
southeast of Phoenix with slight chances also over portions the
south-central Arizona deserts. Thunderstorms activity will likely
also promote strong outflow winds into the lower deserts.
Temperatures through Wednesday will be near normals as the moisture
levels shouldn`t be high enough to dramatically affect temperatures.
Starting Thursday we will see warming over the deserts with most
locations reaching or exceeding 110 by Friday as moisture values
continue to thin. Minimum relative humidities will fall in between a
15 to 25 percent range, highest from Phoenix east into southern Gila
County. Minimum humidities will be lower across southeast California
during the five day period, mostly below 15 percent. Afternoon
southwest winds 10 to 15 mph each day with periodic gusts to 20 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/CB

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
445 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...Several small MCVs were moving WNW across the area
this morning producing isolated areas of very light showers. 00z
UofA WRF NAM has handled this nicely. South of the border there was
a decaying complex across NE Sonora while further south and east of
Hermosillo there was an MCS that was building to the north.
Complicated forecast today with many factors in play. Looking at the
00z UofA WRF runs of the NAM and GFS, have leaned toward the NAM due
to its handling the current situation better than the GFS. With that
said the current light shower/sprinkles activity will continue to
move the WNW this morning before ending. Thunderstorms will be slow
to develop this afternoon as debris cloud cover gradually
dissipates. Currently forecasting mainly isolated afternoon storms
mainly near the higher terrain with scattered showers and
thunderstorms between 5 and 11 pm with a isolated overnight activity
once again. Highs today, thanks to the cloud cover, will run about 2-
6 degrees cooler versus Saturday. Moist atmosphere will remain in
place for continued chance of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Highs both days at or slightly below normal.

Wednesday through Saturday could see a day to day gradual decrease
in areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is low.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/12Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA thru this morning, gradually ending. Debris
cloud cover developing breaks with scattered -TSRA/-SHRA developing
later this afternoon and continuing into this evening. Brief wind
gusts to 45 kts and MVFR conditions may occur with stronger TSRA
later today. Surface wind will generally be variable in direction
less than 12 kts thru the period. However, surface wind east of KTUS
Sunday afternoon will be nwly at 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
445 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

Wednesday through Saturday could see a day to day gradual decrease
in areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is low.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
302 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will return over the coming week with
the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day.

Surface winds SW 15-25 kts this afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

Monday through Thursday...Moisture to slowly increase across
northern Arizona, with shower and thunderstorm chances each day.
Winds may become erratic and gusty near thunderstorms.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
302 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will return over the coming week with
the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day.

Surface winds SW 15-25 kts this afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

Monday through Thursday...Moisture to slowly increase across
northern Arizona, with shower and thunderstorm chances each day.
Winds may become erratic and gusty near thunderstorms.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
230 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...Percha/Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
912 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION...If a remnant MCV exists early Sunday morning, the
potential exists that Sunday may be the proverbial down-day
regarding precip chances as the system moves north of the area.

At any rate, daytime temps Sun-Wed will be quite close to seasonal
normals followed by a gradual warming trend Thur-Sat.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
850 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Sunday through Saturday...

The stage is set for significant amounts of monsoon moisture to
finally return north into AZ from Mexico later tonight, Sunday,
Monday, and continue the remainder of the week.

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Percha/Vasquez
AVIATION...Percha/Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

322 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A trough of low pressure will result in seasonable temperatures
through early next week. High pressure over the central U.S. will
then build and expand westward, bringing a warming trend through
the end of next week. Very hot conditions will be possible for
areas away from the coast by the end of next week or the weekend.

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)

Decent offshore trends from both the north and the east have
limited the stratus intrusion into the vlys this morning. Stratus
will cover most of the coasts this morning. The offshore trends
will allow for complete clearing. Max temps will be similar to
Saturday.

Not much in the way of change for Monday there will be slightly
lower hgts and a little more cyclonic flow aloft which would tend
to increase the marine layer and cool temps some but there will
also be some offshore gradient trends at the sfc which would tend
to decrease the clouds and warm the temps. All in all it should
work out to be a wash and Monday should be similar to today. Mdls
with the biggest offshore trend do show a little more stratus in
the la vlys Monday morning so kept them cloudier that today but
would not be surprised if the skies were clear.

Subtle changes slated for Tuesday as SW flow sets up over SRN
between a humongous CONUS spanning upper high and a PACNW upper
low. The high wins the tug of war ever so slightly and hgts rise
to 591 DM. Offshore trends are forecast to continue and there will
be less clouds. Temps will rise across the board with the biggest
jump in the vlys. Max temps will be at normals for th coasts and
inland areas but the vlys will be above normal.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

A little heat wave is on tap for Wed and Thu. The large upper
high centered over Oklahoma will expand slightly and bump hgts up
to 594 DM. The deserts and the warmest vlys will see triple digit
highs. Max temps at the beaches will be near normal...while the
inland coastal temps will be about 5 degrees above normal. The
Vlys will be about 8 degrees above normal. The marine layer will
be squashed down to the immediate coast.

The high begins to break down starting on Friday. This will kick
off a cooling trend that will continue into Saturday.

.AVIATION...

17/1145Z

AT 00Z AT KLAX...The marine layer depth was around 1400 ft. The
top of the inversion was around 5000 ft with a temperature of 24
degrees Celsius.

KLAX...

KBUR..

.MARINE...

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
AM PDT Monday For zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...Sukup

weather.gov/losangeles

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
245 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The cooling trend that began on Friday will continue
today and cooler than normal temperatures are expected to persist
through Tuesday. A gradual warming trend is then forecast to
begin around the middle of the week.

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 AM PDT Sunday...Early morning water
vapor satellite imagery shows a longwave trough centered along the
West Coast. A shortwave trough dropping south off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest will act to deepen the longwave trough a bit
over northern California the next few days and continue cool the
airmass aloft. Meanwhile...the marine layer depth remains at about
2000 feet and moderate onshore flow persists. Thus...we can expect
continued widespread night and morning low clouds over the next
few days, along with cooler daytime temperatures inland. In fact,
high temperatures across most inland areas are forecast to remain
cooler than normal through Tuesday, and be as much as 10 degrees
below normal.

Temperature trends are expected to reverse course by the middle of
the week. By midweek an upper ridge is forecast to strengthen over
the country`s midsection and expand west across California. This
will lead to a gradual warming trend during the second half of the
work week and into next weekend. Most warming is expected to occur
inland, while coastal areas remain seasonably cool. Temperatures
in most areas are expected to return to near normal by the end of
the week, and perhaps climb a bit above normal next weekend.
Otherwise, no significant weather is forecast over the next 7
days.

.AVIATION...As of 10:49 PM PDT Saturday...The marine layer slopes
from about 2,000 feet in the Bay Area to 2,900 feet over the north
Central Coast. Upper level troughing favors a coastal stratus and
fog intrusion tonight and Sunday morning producing MVFR/IFR cigs.

Plenty of surface based humidity causing additional stratus and
fog is forecast through Sunday night into Monday morning, however
there`ll also be significant low-mid level cooling in particular
Sunday night into Monday morning when a mid level cool front settles
over the forecast area. Forecast at present goes with the idea that
stratus and fog will continue through Sunday with cigs returning
early Sunday evening, but there`s a remote chance that a continuously
deepening marine layer due to cooling weakens the inversion to the
point of allowing mixing of much drier air (RH near 10%) extending
down to the 850 mb level; being at night the effect of mixing should
become minimal nonetheless cig as well as surface wind forecasts
confidence lowers for later Sunday.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR followed by tempo MVFR cig forecast 10z-14z
Sunday morning. Gusty westerly winds to 20-24 knots Sunday afternoon
and early evening. Early stratus return is likely Sunday evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR cigs tonight into Sunday morning. VFR
forecast to return late Sunday morning. SCT-BKN cloud cover late
Sunday afternoon with MVFR cigs likely prevailing Sunday evening.

.MARINE...as of 9:41 PM PDT Saturday...Gusty northwest winds will
continue over the northern and outer waters overnight into Sunday.
Elsewhere over the coastal waters winds will gradually increase
Sunday. Gusty onshore winds are forecast north of the Bay Bridge
Sunday afternoon and evening. Swells will be light through the
weekend and into next week with fresh wind waves being the dominant
wave energy over the inner waters.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 3 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 PM
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
SCA...SF Bay from 2 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: Canepa

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
230 AM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...Percha/Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
229 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue through next week with temperatures
near average for mid July. Gusty afternoon winds are expected today
and Monday afternoon as low pressure approaches the Pacific
Northwest. Dry conditions will continue into the start of next
weekend along with a few degrees of warming.

.SHORT TERM...
Dry and breezy conditions continue today as an upper level trough
over the Pacific Northwest strengthens winds aloft and increases
our surface pressure gradient. Gusty winds are currently occurring
across mountain top locations as the southern fringe of mid-level
jet winds dip south. Gusty conditions will develop late this
afternoon with another round of slightly stronger winds expected
on Monday afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and low
humidity will create fire weather concerns today and Monday. See
the Fire Weather section below for these details.

One update this morning was to hoist a Lake Wind Advisory for Lake
Tahoe and area lakes today and also again on Monday. Monday also
includes lakes through Lassen County and Basin and Range lakes
including Pyramid Lake. Given the current speed of winds aloft do
think mixing should materialize by mid-afternoon to produce a sudden
onset of gusty conditions which may catch some light vessels off
guard. Overall looking for wind gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range with
stronger winds on Monday. A stronger surface and thermal gradient
will be in place Monday afternoon as the mid-level jet drops a bit
farther south. Wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range should become more
widespread by Monday afternoon.

Overall, temperatures will remain seasonable into early next week
with high temperatures across western Nevada remaining near 90 to the
mid 90s. Sierra valleys should stay in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Fuentes

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...
The dry pattern continues through the week as the models are now
backing off on the high building back into Nevada much at all. The
GFS/EC are both flatter with the ridge keeping a light west to
southwest flow across the area into next weekend. In fact, a short
wave is expected to brush the north Friday or Saturday which would
actually keep the winds up and limit temperatures from warming above
average.

The changes were to cool the temperatures a few degrees each day
with low to mid 90s for the desert valleys through the period and 75-
85 for the Sierra valleys. A typical late day southwest wind is
expected each day, strongest Wednesday and Friday with gusts around
25 mph. With this pattern thunderstorms are looking less likely and
have kept with the minimal, non-mentionable chances Mono-Mineral
Counties. It is still possible for the heat to build more next week,
and if winds are light enough a storm or two could pop. Still, any
threat for that looks very low next weekend. Wallmann

.AVIATION...
Winds are the main concern the next 36 hours. Gusty afternoon
southwest winds north of I-80 today with peak gusts 25-30 kts at
those terminals and 20-25 kts south of there. The 700 mb winds at 40
kts will create some mtn wave turbulence overnight tonight and some
LLWS is possible at KTVL, with lesser chances at KTRK, KRNO, KCXP.
Winds increase again Monday and are more widespread with peak gusts
around 30 kt for all terminals except KMMH which will be lighter at
25 kts. High confidence in the wind forecast, but low on any LLWS
overnight tonight into early Monday morning. Wallmann

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning remains in effect today for the 395 corridor
north of Topaz Lake as well as Northern Washoe County. Latest
guidance supports it with peak gusts 30-35 mph and RH dropping to 7-
15% for those areas. Elsewhere, winds won`t be quite as strong as
the gradients are not as supportive. We expect peak gusts around 25
mph in those areas, although extreme western 453 may see localized
critical conditions. The winds should subside for most areas this
evening.

Tonight, winds will remain gusty over the ridges and favored mid
slopes for the Tahoe Basin and Sierra Front. Overnight RH recovery
will also continue to be poor for the mid slopes and ridges. Winds
are expected to be stronger Monday with strong gradients at the
surface and aloft while a 70-80 kt jet crosses just north of I-80.
The winds are also likely to start earlier in the morning due to the
warmer overnight temperatures and gusty winds on ridges overnight.
As a result, critical weather conditions may last several hours or
more in the watch area. The watch looks good for the areas in it.
For 271, RH may come up too much with the SW flow, but it will be
close there. Also, 273 and 459 will have a few areas hit north of
Mono and Walker Lakes, but it is not expected to be widespread
enough to highlight at this time. Wallmann

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this
evening NVZ450-458.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
NVZ450-453-458.

Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this
evening NVZ002.

Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday NVZ002.

Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday NVZ004.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this
evening CAZ270-278.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
CAZ270-278.

Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday CAZ071.

Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this
evening CAZ072.

Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday CAZ072.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
CAZ272.

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
228 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Near to below normal temperatures are expected today through
Tuesday as a disturbance moves north of NorCal. Temperatures will
gradually warm up starting Wednesday. Dry weather will continue
over the next 7 days.

.DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday Night)

Model 500 mb analysis and water vapor imagery showed an upper
level low pressure system positioned over Montana with the
associated upper level trough deepening off the coast in the
eastern Pacific. A surface pressure gradient was driving wind
gusts up to around 30 mph overnight for locations nearest to the
Carquinez Straight.

The deepening trough off the coast will progress eastward and
bring another small shortwave trough base moving through northern
California today. As a result, at or slightly below normal
temperatures will continue across the forecast area. Breezy
conditions are likely in the delta and the valley as the surface
pressure gradient will be present this morning and afternoon to
drive some wind gusts. A stream of moisture aloft ahead of the
lift provided by the trough base could result in a shower or
thunderstorm just west of Mt. Shasta, but otherwise no
precipitation is expected elsewhere this afternoon.

Model soundings hint at some increased lower level saturation in
the delta and near Sacramento Monday morning, so a few lower level
clouds are possible. Confidence is low at this point for
widespread stratus. Near to below normal temperatures will
continue through Tuesday before an upper level ridge builds into
the region from the south central portion of the CONUS that will
bring a slow warm up on Wednesday. However, temperatures on
Wednesday will continue to be near to below average.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Desert Southwest high forecast by the models to extend westward
later this week resulting in a warming trend across interior
NorCal. Overall temperatures are not expected to be too hot,
reaching slightly above the century mark across the northern
Sacramento Valley, as a weak trough lingers along the West Coast.

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions across TAF sites next 24 hours. Expect generally
light winds, except gusty winds to 30 kts near the Delta region
and over higher terrain. Slight chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings in
the Sacramento region 12Z-16Z.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
228 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

.DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday Night)

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

.AVIATION...

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1049 PM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Continued cooling can be expected into Sunday as an
upper level trough deepens along the West Coast. A gradual warming
trend is then forecast to begin by the middle of next week.

.DISCUSSION...As of 8:40 PM PDT Saturday...The cooling trend
continue for inland areas today as the marine layer deepened to
2000 feet and moderate onshore flow continued. High temperatures
for most inland areas were at least a few degrees below normal.

An upper level low is centered near Seattle this evening, with an
associated upper trough extending south along the West Coast and
California. This trough is forecast to retrograde slightly and
deepen a bit further through Sunday. This is expected to result in
at least a few additional degrees of cooling on Sunday, especially
for inland areas. The models agree that temperatures will then
remain relatively cool into the early part of the upcoming work
week. An upper level ridge centered over the southern Great Plains
in then forecast to build across much of the CONUS by the middle
of next week. This will result in gradual warming beginning around
the middle of next week and continuing into next weekend.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR cigs tonight into Sunday morning. VFR
forecast to return late Sunday morning. SCT-BKN cloud cover late
Sunday afternoon with MVFR cigs likely prevailing Sunday evening.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 AM
SCA...SF Bay until 10 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema
AVIATION/MARINE: Canepa

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1030 PM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Near to below normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday as
a disturbance moves north of NorCal. Temperatures will gradually
warm up starting Wednesday. Dry weather will continue over the
next 7 days.

DISCUSSION...Moderate delta breeze this evening providing a
cool evening for srn Sac/nrn San Joaquin valleys with readings
4-8 degrees cooler versus yesterday at this time. Current
forecast is on track no updates needed.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...(Today through Tuesday) A deep marine
layer along the coast along with a trough remaining over the west
coast will help to keep temperatures below normal this weekend and
early next week.

The marine layer is around 2000 feet deep with moderate flow
through the delta. Moderate flow will continue each day and pick
up in strength each evening the next several days. There will be a
chance for some low clouds to advect into the valley the next
couple of mornings with the best chance on Monday. High
temperatures Sunday will end up in the mid 80s to mid 90s for the
valley...the warmest temperatures will be over the north end of
the valley.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

Good model guidance agreement for the development of a high
pressure center over the desert Southwest next week. As such, dry
weather and warmer conditions are expected across interior
northern California late next week. Temperatures are expected to
be a few degrees below normal on Wednesday but trending above
normal by the weekend. Triple digits could return to the valley
by Friday into the weekend.

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions across TAF sites next 24 hours. Expect generally light
winds, except gusty winds to 30 kts near the Delta region and
over higher terrain. Low clouds and fog could make their way
through the Delta into KSAC and KMHR sites early Sunday morning.

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1030 PM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

.AVIATION...

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
850 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Sunday through Saturday...

The stage is set for significant amounts of monsoon moisture to
finally return north into AZ from Mexico later tonight, Sunday,
Monday, and continue the remainder of the week.

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Percha/Vasquez
AVIATION...Percha/Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

619 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

A brief shower or storm could come close to MHK in the next few
hours, but given the isolated coverage did not include in the
taf. Low level wind shear will decrease the next few hours while
the surface wind gusts increase. There is a slight chance for
scattered storms late tonight, but confidence is low at this
point.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ024-026-039-040-055-056-059.

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
358 PM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will return over the coming week with
the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day. Expect good
chances for showers and thunderstorms each day through the week.
Several upper level disturbances will keep storms in the forecast
through the overnight hours into Wednesday. Drier air filters into
the region over the weekend with a return to low grade Monsoon
shower activity.

.DISCUSSION...Monsoon moisture continues to surge northward to the
Utah border today. Showers and thunderstorms were mostly confined
to Navajo and Apache counties through mid afternoon. Thunderstorm
outflows are currently pushing deeper moisture northward and
westward this evening with shower activity spreading across
Coconino, Gila and Yavapai counties through the overnight hours.
An upper level trough at the 200-300MB level will provide enough
dynamics to keep this overnight convection going.

Monday`s convective activity will reach all areas of northern
Arizona with the best chances for precipitation occurring over the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains regions. Another upper level
trough will move across northern Arizona on Monday night with
continued extended overnight convection.

Tuesday through Friday...A wet Monsoon pattern will continue
through Friday with slight day to day mesoscale variations in
precipitation coverage. Typically the mountain areas will have
the best chances for measurable rainfall.

Next Weekend...In the extended forecast another short wave trough
will move into the western states causing drier air to filter into
northwestern Arizona. While Monsoon thunderstorm activity will not
completely shut off we expect low grade Monsoon storms for most
areas except the White Mountains region starting on Saturday.

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours for most of the area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to move northwestward through the
afternoon and evening hours and could briefly impact locations with
reductions in flight categories and gusty erratic winds. Otherwise
expect gusty SW winds this afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER... Monsoon moisture is increasing across the area. For
Sunday and Monday expect increasing showers and thunderstorms with
the potential for wetting rains rising each day. Gusty outflow winds
and lightning will be probable from any storms or showers.

Tuesday through Friday...Moisture remain in the area through the
time period across northern Arizona, with shower and thunderstorm
chances each day. Winds may become erratic and gusty near
thunderstorms.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...Suk
FIRE WEATHER...Suk

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
325 PM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across portions of the Tohono O`odham Nation at this time. These
showers and thunderstorms were occurring in a northwest-to-southeast
oriented axis of greatest instability as per SPC hourly mesoscale
analysis. The showers and thunderstorms were also ahead of an
approaching mid-level cyclonic circulation system over northern
Sonora Mexico. The 17/12Z Univ. of AZ WRF-NAM/GFS handled the
initiation of showers/tstms west of Tucson very well, basically
occurring between 20Z-21Z this afternoon.

Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms were also ongoing
across the White Mountains. Visible satellite imagery and radar
trends indicate that showers/tstms should continue to develop
further south into far southwest New Mexico during the next few
hours. These showers/tstms were developing ahead of an inverted
trough in the vicinity of El Paso. Several HRRR solutions suggest
that showers/tstms will encroach upon far eastern sections by early
this evening, and continue to move west later tonight.

Thus, have increased PoPs to depict scattered coverage of showers/
tstms this evening, then isolated showers/tstms late tonight. The
various mesoscale models suggest at the very least that convective
debris clouds should encompass much of the area late tonight, then
clearing skies may occur earlier Monday versus today. Given this
scenario, have opted for scattered showers/tstms Monday afternoon/
evening mainly from Tucson eastward/southward.

Expect similar coverage of showers/tstms to occur Tuesday afternoon/
evening. The potential for somewhat stronger thunderstorms may exist
Tuesday, as the progged flow may be more favorable for storm motions
from the Mogollon Rim area. Fairly deep moisture will remain over the
area Wednesday as strong high pressure aloft is progged to be over
southern Missouri/northern Arkansas. Thereafter, a gradual drying
trend continues to be depicted via the GFS/ECMWF during the Thursday-
Sunday period. Moisture should remain sufficient for isolated to
scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
Thursday through next Sunday.

High temps Mon-Tue will be quite close to seasonal normals, then a
return of above normal temps is forecast to occur starting Wednesday
and especially Thur-Sun.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/00Z.
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will occur through the period,
with the best chances during the afternoon and evening hours. Brief
wind gusts of 35-40 kts and MVFR conditions may occur with the
stronger TSRA. Outside of thunderstorm outflows, sfc wind will
generally be wly/nwly at 8-12 kts into this evening, weakening to
less than 10 kts and becoming variable in direction overnight into
Monday morning. Sfc wind Monday will be wly/nwly at 8-12 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

.FIRE WEATHER...Plenty of moisture will remain in place this week
for daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. A slight decrease in rain chances may occur late in
the week into next weekend. Outside of gusty thunderstorm/outflow
winds, expect typical diurnal 20-ft wind patterns each day. Stronger
gusts are possible through the Gila River Valley when winds are
northwesterly in direction.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

DISCUSSION...Francis
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...French

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Eureka CA

332 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough offshore will maintain slightly
below normal temperatures across the interior through early this
week. A deepening marine layer will result in continued cloud
cover and drizzle overnight tonight and Monday morning along the
Redwood Coast.

.DISCUSSION...Very few changes were made to the weekly forecast
today as things appear to be unfolding largely as predicted. The
"big" weather story in the near term continues to be the gradual
approach of an upper level trough from the northwest, which is
already resulting in milder temperatures than we`ve seen over the
past few days. High temperatures across interior valleys this
afternoon are running approximately 5 to 12 degrees below where
they were at this time yesterday, which is indicative of both a
deepening marine layer moving farther inland and lowering
1000-500 mb thicknesses as the trough moves closer. The deepening
marine layer also allowed stratus to move much farther into the
interior coastal valleys and lower elevation coastal hills this
morning, and these clouds have struggled to clear out through the
day. This is expected to repeat itself tonight, and clouds may
travel even farther inland as a shortwave moves onshore. Drizzle
and maybe even some light rain showers are expected overnight in
coastal areas as well, mostly in Humboldt and Del Norte counties.

As for the potential for convection/lightning this evening farther
inland, the higher mountains of the Trinity Horn region have
provided just enough of an elevated heat source to generate some
agitated cumulus this afternoon, but thus for no precipitation
has been observed south of approximately Crater Lake in Oregon.
However, satellite imagery reveals a subtle shortwave rounding the
base of its parent trough just offshore, and additional forcing
from this impulse may be enough to trigger more vigorous
convection and showers this evening. Given that these showers are
initiating right along the border of Siskiyou and Trinity counties
currently, and that the steering flow will likely carry these
storms northwest as they develop, it continues to appear that
lightning chances are very low for Trinity county, and much more
likely across central Siskiyou county. Even there, lightning will
likely be somewhat sporadic.

The situation for tomorrow and Tuesday appears to be somewhat
similar as the parent trough is expected to stall just off the
coast, while additional subtle shortwaves move through the area
during the afternoon and evening each day. Expect temperatures to
be another 5 or so degrees cooler, again with slight chances for
showers across the mountains of northeast Trinity county.

By Wednesday, the upper level trough will very slowly drift
northward, and temperatures will incrementally climb through the
end of the week as well. This will also reduce the already low
chances for showers across our mountains, although one final
shortwave passing through the area on Thursday may be enough to
trigger a shower or two.

.AVIATION...MVFR to LIFR conditions can be found along the coast
this afternoon which will continue into the evening and overnight
hours. The question for this forecast period is whether or not the
marine layer and associated stratus will penetrate far enough
inland to reach Ukiah. Current model data suggests VFR conditions,
but satellite imagery from this morning depicted that the stratus
was just out of reach for the area. I think that there is a decent
shot of this happening so the KUKI TAF set has been amended to
hint at some of these lower cloud levels. If it does indeed make
it to KUKI, the terminal will likely see IFR or LIFR conditions
similar to the coast. KAR

.MARINE...Northerly winds will continue to decrease into the
upcoming week as strong high pressure offshore shifts westward and
allows the pressure gradient to weaken across the coastal waters.
The ASCAT pass this afternoon showed the winds north of Cape
Mendocino had fallen below small craft criteria so those advisories
were expired with the 3 PM update today. The southern waters,
however, are still gusting around 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. The
advisories south of the cape should be set to expire tonight as
winds decrease further. The gradient will remain relatively weak
through the early half of the upcoming week bringing mostly light to
moderate north winds. Models suggest that winds will increase again
by next weekend.

Steep seas will gradually subside through the evening with
relatively low sea state around 4 to 6 ft expected for the early
half of the week. Small southerly swells will continue to propagate
the waters this week. /KML

.EKA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455-475.

Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
252 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler than normal temperatures along with overnight
clouds and patch fog are expected to persist through Tuesday. A
gradual warming trend is then forecast to begin around the middle
of the week.

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 PM PDT Sunday...Little surprise in the
weather today as temperatures are running a bit cooler than this
time yesterday due to lower 500 mb heights plus a stronger onshore
push at the surface. Similar to the last few days, clouds quickly
burned off this morning for inland locations and retreated to the
coast. Satellite shows a hodgepodge of sun and clouds at the
coast at this time. Look for clouds to advance back to many inland spots
overnight with patchy fog also likely. Models continue to show the
potential for coastal drizzle as well. Lows will be in the 50s for
most locations.

A few degrees of additional cooling looks likely for Monday as the
longwave trof off the slightly deepens while 925 MB temps drop 3
to 5C from today. This will translate into 70s for most inland
spots while 60s will continue to be common at the coast. Only
southern Monterey and San Benito counties will likely see highs in
the 80s to lower 90s. Tuesday should be a near repeat of Monday.

Starting on Wednesday temperatures will be on the increase as a
ridge of high pressure to our south slowly rebuilds back into our
region. 925 MB values will increase by about 10C by Friday while
500 MB heights advance up to 10 DM. By the weekend inland highs
will be back into the upper 80s to lower 100s with 60s and 70s
still at the coast.

Longer range forecasts to the end of the month favor dry
conditions with warmer than normal temperatures.

.AVIATION...As of 11:00 AM PDT Sunday...Stratus is rapidly retreating
to the coast with most area terminals anticipated to scatter out
within the next hour or so. Monterey Bay terminals will take
longer to scatter out. The marine layer remains around 2000 feet
and anticipated to deepen more as a trough of low pressure deepens
off the west coast. This will allow for further inland intrusion
over the region tonight into Monday as well as possibly earlier
onset time this evening. Moderate west winds will persist through
the day with gusty winds expected this afternoon once the
seabreeze sets up.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions expected to prevail today. The
seabreeze will reach 15 to 20 kt this afternoon with gusts to 25
kt possible. Stratus will make and early return this evening
potentially impacting the terminals by 03z.

Confidence is moderate.

SFO Bridge Approach...Same as KSFO with low cloud expected to fill
back into the bay after 07z tonight.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus will scatter out temporarily over
KMRY today approx. 19z with a return as early as 00z this
afternoon. Winds are expected to 15 kt this afternoon with gusts
to 20 kt possible.

Confidence is moderate.

.MARINE...as of 3:00 PM PDT Sunday...A low pressure system
developing to the north over the Pacific Northwest will maintain
moderate northwesterly flow across the northern coastal waters
through late tonight. Winds will be locally strong off coastal
points where typical coastal jets form...otherwise light winds
expected over the southern half of the forecast area.

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 3 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 PM
SCA...SF Bay from 2 PM

PUBLIC FORECAST: Bell
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: CW

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
215 PM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An increase in clouds and humidity can be expected during the next
few days along with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly east of the Lower Colorado River Valley. High temperatures
will also be a bit cooler. Storm chances on the lower deserts will
be slight, with better chances over the higher terrain and over
southeast Arizona. During the latter half of the week, storm chances
will dwindle and temperatures will increase to above normal levels.

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...

A fairly complicated pattern with regards to precipitation in south
central AZ will develop later this afternoon and evening. It seems
that mid level disturbances are flying off the shelf so to speak,
and into southern AZ. One feature was noted this morning in weather
balloon data and later with sunlight, visible satellite imagery.
This feature was responsible for increased thunderstorm activity
between Gila Bend and the Mexican border at noon. Then there is
another large mid level circulation feature in northwest Mexico (an
MCV from last nights Sonora Mex convection) that is forecast by the
models to move into AZ just west of Tucson by 5 pm MST. The GFS
model is forecasting a couple of Omega field 500-300 mb bullseye
areas from Pinal County just north to Tucson, to portions of south
Central AZ just north of the Mexican Border this evening.

Therefore with increased moisture, and a couple of nearby dynamical
features, it would be best to increase chances for showers and
thunderstorms over our south central AZ zones, with the best chances
southwest and south of Phoenix. Diminishing showers are expected
after midnight partial clearing skies.

Monday...Much higher monsoon moisture will have spread over the
region by Monday afternoon. With the lack of any notable mid/upper
level disturbances, we will go with a standard low grade monsoon
forecast, i.e. slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms
especially mountains east of Phoenix.

Tuesday...The easterly wave moving out of west Texas this evening
(Sunday) and into Chihuahua and Sonora Mexico is progged by the GFS
model to bodily move into southern Arizona by late Tuesday afternoon
and night. We have elevated the threat of precip slightly in south
central AZ Tuesday evening because of this feature.

Wednesday...Monsoon moisture will be still be entrenched over the
region. Again without any mid/upper level disturbances expected,
only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms are forecast for
south central AZ.

Thursday through Sunday...monsoon moisture is forecast to thin a
little as drier air from New Mexico and Colorado mix over the area.
At the same time atmospheric height and thickness values increase
dramatically over the region, and if it weren`t for remnant monsoon
moisture, afternoon temperatures be much higher. The driest areas
Thursday through Sunday will be southeast California where afternoon
temperatures at Imperial, El Centro, and Blythe will flatline at the
114 degree mark. Ouch!

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Only low to moderate confidence with respect to wind shifts and
shower potential through Monday morning under fairly persistent 12K-
15K ft cigs. Virga/sprinkles/isold light showers will pass through
the Phoenix area this afternoon as sfc winds will generally favor a
SSW direction. Some variability in wind direction is likely with
these showers and a 160V240 direction would not be unexpected
through the afternoon/early evening.

Still unsure whether enough instability can be realized in SE AZ to
allow thunderstorms to form yielding northward moving outflow
boundaries. Enough evidence exists in models to keep some semblance
of an outflow boundary and SE sfc winds entering Phoenix terminals
this evening. Timing is very uncertain. Regardless of outflow, an
earlier onset of an easterly wind direction looks more likely. Could
also see residual leftover showers passing through Phoenix later
this evening and tonight, though intensity would most likely be
light and impacts minimal.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Only moderate confidence in terminal forecasts through Monday
morning as thicker 15K-20K cigs spread into SE CA. While
virga/sprinkles may occur briefly, any thunderstorm activity should
remain well east of the area. Sfc winds will favor a southerly
direction (occasionally gusty at KBLH), though a brief period of
evening SW winds at KIPL will be likely; and a remote chance of a
more easterly outflow component (or allowing variable directions)
arriving late tonight.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday...
Moisture and relative humidity values will decrease very slightly
through the latter half of the week as high pressure tends to
strengthen and air temperatures climb back to into an above normal
range. Thunderstorm and wetting rain potential will generally be
limited to higher terrain locations north and east of Phoenix, with
better potential for outflow winds heading downhill into lower
elevations of central Arizona. Minimum relative humidity values in a
15 to 25 percent range during the middle of the week will fall to a
10 to 20 percent range by the end of the week. Overnight recovery
will be fair to good. Outside of winds near thunderstorms,
directions will favor an upslope component in the afternoon with
typical gustiness and light overnight drainage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Vasquez
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
215 PM MST SUN JUL 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Vasquez
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
208 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High fire danger and hazardous boating conditions on
area lakes will continue Monday due to gusty winds and persistent
dry weather. Winds will diminish a bit for Tuesday, followed by
typical summertime weather for the second half of the week.

.SHORT TERM...

Winds and the persistent dry weather are the main forecast
concerns for the next couple days. Gusts over 30 mph and low
humidity have increased the threat for dangerous fire weather
conditions, see the Fire Weather discussion below more details.
Winds are also negatively impacting those heading out on the
lakes, gusty winds and hazardous waves for small boats, kayaks
and paddle boards.

Low pressure that`s been well forecast the last week remains off
the Pacific Northwest coast with the jet stream sitting over
northwest Nevada. The strongest winds aloft are forecast from late
tonight to Monday evening. This may prevent winds from decoupling
tonight in some locations. If the winds do go light tonight, gusty
winds will quickly redevelop in the lower elevations Monday
morning. Peak gusts Monday will climb up to near 40 mph, and may
reach 70-75 mph over mountain tops and ridge lines.

For Tuesday, the low and the jet retreat to the north ever so
slightly and that may be enough to decrease the magnitude and
duration of the peak afternoon winds. However breezy conditions
are likely with continued impacts to boating and fire danger.
Brong

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

No significant changes to the ongoing forecast as dry and hot
conditions are expected to prevail. Temperatures will climb a
little each day, topping out in the mid 80s for Sierra valleys
and 90s to around 100 in lower valleys by the end of the week.
Winds will be thermally driven with zephyr like winds developing
each afternoon along the east slopes of the Sierra and working out
into western NV during the evening.

At the beginning of period, upper trough will be offshore with
jet cutting across northern CA and Pacific Northwest while upper
ridge will be centered over the central part of the country.
Medium range models want to gradually build or retrograde ridge
westward, but this may take some time as shortwave energy works
through the Pacific Northwest. So while there could be some slight
fluctuation in winds and temperatures as we make our way through
the week, they should be minor ones. Hohmann

.AVIATION...

Winds will continue to be gusty through Monday with winds
strongest Monday afternoon as jet develops over area late tonight
and into Monday morning. Gusts this evening will generally be
around 25-30 kts before rising into the 30-35 kt range on Monday.
Winds will remain moderate immediately above valley floors tonight
with weak shallow inversions confined mainly to the lower valley
floors. So KTVL/KTRK will likley remain mixed tonight. Confidence
in LLWS is still low as model soundings indicated a more southerly
component aligning with surface winds. The most likely location
would be KTVL/KTRK 06z-20z Monday. Ridge gusts 50-60 kts will
result in lee side turbulence. Hohmann

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds are increasing early this afternoon as the first Red Flag
Warning takes effect. The Surprise Valley and extreme northwest NV
may have more borderline humidity conditions, as values are
currently near or above 20%, otherwise the humidity is already 15%
or less in the rest of today`s warning area. No changes were made to
today`s warning, although some sites in western Fire Zone 453 may
also reach critical values of wind and humidity for a portion of the
late afternoon.

For tonight, winds will remain gusty over the ridges and favored mid
slopes for the Tahoe basin and Sierra Front. Overnight humidity
recovery will also continue to be poor for the mid slopes and
ridges.

For Monday, all zones in the watch were upgraded to Red Flag
Warnings as most guidance data continues to support a longer
period of gusty winds up to 40 mph at times, with ridge level
gusts above 50 mph. Just outside the warning areas, fire zone 271
may see a few sites have humidity dip below 15%, but most areas
should not be that dry. In fire zones 273 and 459, overall wind
speeds are expected to be lower, although gusts may occasionally
edge above 30 mph in some sites north of Bridgeport-Walker Lake.

By Tuesday, the low begins to lift to the north with the stronger
portion of the upper jet over northwest CA. While we can`t
completely rule out a short period of wind gusts in the 30-35 mph
range, it appears more likely that gusts will generally range from
25-30 mph and resemble a more typical late day zephyr over far
western NV and northeast CA. MJD

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ450-458.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday NVZ458.

Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.

Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday NVZ002.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday NVZ450-453.

Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday NVZ004.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday CAZ270-278.

Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday CAZ071.

Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.

Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday CAZ072.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday CAZ272.

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
153 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

.DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday Night)
A deep marine layer along the coast along with a trough remaining
over the west coast will help to keep temperatures below normal
through Wednesday. The marine layer continues to be at around
2000 feet deep with moderate flow expected to continue through
the delta.

Low clouds look like they will not fully clear from the Bay Area
this afternoon. This should help to increase the chances for some
low clouds to advect into the valley late tonight and Monday
morning. Slight cooling is expected over todays highs with Monday
looking like it will be the coolest day this week. Highs in the
valley will mainly be in the 80s.

A trough will remain along the west coast throughout most of the
week to help keep cooler than normal temperatures each day through
Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms may occur the next couple of
days west and north of Shasta County with all other areas
remaining dry.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

High pressure develops over the desert southwest late this week.
As a result, a warming trend is expected across interior northern
California during the extended period. A trough will linger along
the Pacific Northwest, but model guidance continues to forecast
building heights aloft. Daytime highs could be 5-10 degrees above
normal by Sunday. Many Valley locations might reach the triple
digit mark early next week.

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. South to west winds 10 to
16 kt with gusts up to 25 kt will continue across Valley TAF sites
into Monday, with locally stronger gusts near the Delta and over
higher terrain. IFR ceilings may move through the Delta into the
Sacramento region early Monday morning.

Dang

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
141 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and near normal temperatures will be present across
central California this week.

.DISCUSSION...An upper trough continues to impact the west coast
resulting in a subtle cooling trend across central California.
Temperatures this afternoon were generally 2 to 4 degrees cooler
compared to yesterday, with most San Joaquin Valley locations
forecast to remain below the century mark.

Breezy winds from the west were present along the west side of the
San Joaquin Valley this afternoon with gusts between 20 and 30 mph
and gusts between 30 and 40 mph across the desert and the Kern
County mountains. The HRRR and high res ARW and NMM indicate winds
strengthening into the evening hours.

Dry conditions were also present across the desert and Kern
County mountains where relative humidity values in the single
digits were common. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for these
areas as well as parts of the southern Sierra Nevada through this
evening due to enhanced fire danger.

Otherwise, little change in the upper level weather pattern
through Tuesday, with the upper trough dominating the west coast.
An upper ridge centered over Texas and Oklahoma is forecast to
nudge west into Arizona and southern California mid week resulting
in a subtle warming trend for central California. Monsoonal
moisture is forecast to remain well to the east of the region,
keeping the area dry for at least the next 7 days.

Looking ahead, the Climate Prediction Centers 8 to 14 day outlook
(valid from July 25th through the 31st) calls for a high
probability of above normal temperatures for all of California,
and in fact for all areas west of the Rockies.

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected through central California for at
least the next 24 hours.

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Monday July 18 2016... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in Fresno
and Tulare Counties and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ295-297>299.

public...Riley
avn/fw...BSO
synopsis...Riley

weather.gov/hanford

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

Scattered thunderstorms continue across the counties near the
Nebraska border early this afternoon in a zone of surface-925 mb
convergence along with cold pool interactions and weak isentropic
lift. Expect the storms to last for the next few hours before
gradually lifting to the northeast. With clouds and precipitation
will also adjust high temperatures downward as well.

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period with convection
remaining to the north of the terminals. Winds around 10 to 15 kts
with gusts to 24 kts are expected through 00Z then decrease to 10
kts or less. Low level wind shear is expected tonight with the
increase of the low level jet so included in the forecast from
07Z-14Z Monday.

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ024-026-039-040-
055-056-059.

UPDATE...53
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53