Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/16/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
858 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue this evening in parts
of central and south Arkansas. Flash flooding has occured with
some of these storms and at least 3.15 inches has fallen at Little
Rock Adams Field. These storms will likely dissipate late this
evening or around midnight. Mostly cloudy skies will continue
overnight and patchy fog will develop in some locations late.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the area as a short wave moves through the state. Do not
expect them to be as widespread as yesterday...and they should
dissipate by late evening. Patchy fog is expected late tonight
into the morning. MVFR conditions are expected this evening and
tonight then VFR from mid morning on.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
.Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
858 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue this evening in parts
of central and south Arkansas. Flash flooding has occured with
some of these storms and at least 3.15 inches has fallen at Little
Rock Adams Field. These storms will likely dissipate late this
evening or around midnight. Mostly cloudy skies will continue
overnight and patchy fog will develop in some locations late.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the area as a short wave moves through the state. Do not
expect them to be as widespread as yesterday...and they should
dissipate by late evening. Patchy fog is expected late tonight
into the morning. MVFR conditions are expected this evening and
tonight then VFR from mid morning on.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
.Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
643 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the area as a short wave moves through the state. Do not
expect them to be as widespread as yesterday...and they should
dissipate by late evening. Patchy fog is expected late tonight
into the morning. MVFR conditions are expected this evening and
tonight then VFR from mid morning on.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
..Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
...Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 89 74 94 / 30 20 10 10
Camden AR 73 93 77 97 / 30 20 0 10
Harrison AR 68 88 71 92 / 20 20 10 10
Hot Springs AR 72 91 76 95 / 30 20 0 10
Little Rock AR 74 92 76 96 / 30 30 10 10
Monticello AR 75 93 76 96 / 30 30 0 10
Mount Ida AR 71 90 74 94 / 20 20 10 10
Mountain Home AR 69 90 72 94 / 20 20 10 10
Newport AR 71 90 75 95 / 30 30 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 74 91 76 95 / 30 30 0 10
Russellville AR 71 91 74 96 / 20 20 10 10
Searcy AR 72 91 74 95 / 30 30 10 10
Stuttgart AR 73 92 75 96 / 40 30 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.AVIATION...
Forecasts will reflect best chances for diurnally enhanced...late
afternoon convection. Expect scattered MVFR conditions due to fog
overnight.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
UPDATE...
Observational data indicate weakening convection...across
central...through northwest portions of the state.
Some immediate clearing is noted behind this activity...and
should allow for some destabilization to support scattered mid to
late afternoon convection.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Observational data indicate weakening convection...across
central...through northwest portions of the state.
Some immediate clearing is noted behind this activity...and
should allow for some destabilization to support scattered mid to
late afternoon convection.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 89 70 89 74 / 40 30 20 10
Camden AR 95 75 96 77 / 40 30 20 10
Harrison AR 87 68 86 71 / 40 30 40 10
Hot Springs AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 30 10
Little Rock AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 40 30 10
Monticello AR 92 75 94 76 / 40 30 20 10
Mount Ida AR 91 73 92 75 / 50 30 40 10
Mountain Home AR 88 69 87 72 / 40 30 40 10
Newport AR 90 71 90 75 / 40 30 20 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 20 10
Russellville AR 91 72 91 74 / 40 30 40 10
Searcy AR 90 71 91 74 / 40 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 73 92 75 / 40 40 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...62 / Long Term...56
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1203 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Most of the precip has moved out of the state very early this
morning...and will generally see dry conditions overnight.
However...some fog will be possible due to the rainfall seen on
Thu evening. Some SHRA/TSRA currently ongoing over portions of
OK...and may push into SWRN AR overnight into Fri morning...but
potential to see impacts at terminals is low. There will remain
chances for SHRA/TSRA for Fri...with VCTS and PROB30 mentioned.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 73 89 70 90 / 50 40 30 20
Camden AR 77 93 75 95 / 50 30 30 40
Harrison AR 69 86 69 87 / 50 40 30 40
Hot Springs AR 75 92 75 92 / 70 40 30 30
Little Rock AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Monticello AR 77 92 75 93 / 70 40 30 40
Mount Ida AR 73 91 72 91 / 70 50 30 30
Mountain Home AR 70 87 70 87 / 50 40 30 30
Newport AR 73 89 71 90 / 50 40 30 20
Pine Bluff AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Russellville AR 74 91 74 91 / 70 50 30 30
Searcy AR 73 90 72 91 / 50 40 30 30
Stuttgart AR 75 91 73 92 / 50 40 30 30
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.AVIATION...
Forecasts will continue to reflect MCS type development...most
likely to affect the forecast area between 14/22 and 15/03z.
Expect scattered areas of MVFR conditions due to fog between 15/06
and 15/15z.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1058 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
UPDATE...
Near term conditions will depend on a number of mesoscale
features. MCV analyzed over west-central Arkansas at 1530z will
continue eastward this afternoon. A decaying outflow boundary is
now located from near Dumas...to near Hot Springs. Instability
analysis indicates a fair amount of convective overturning has
occurred this morning across northeast sections of the state.
Approaching convection...across northern Oklahoma...to southeast
Kansas...will have a favorable environment to reach western
sections of the forecast area by mid afternoon.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
A cluster of SHRA/TSRA is moving south across NRN sections of the
state this morning...with additional isolated to scattered
activity developing across all but SRN sections of the state. The
NRN terminals are seeing MVFR or lower conditions at this
time...which will be story under the more intense convection. Will
see some improvements for these sites later this morning as this
activity drops south. Elsewhere...will see generally scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning into the early afternoon hrs...then a break
in the precip should be seen by mid to late afternoon. This
evening into the overnight period...additional SHRA/TSRA will be
possible....with MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more
intense convection. However...only mention VCTS at this time after
00Z as timing and location are uncertain.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over
portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much
stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and
portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the
activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the
weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over
portions of AR.
The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding
the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity
to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the
HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems
reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the
next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may
remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR
over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to
briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail.
Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN
counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time.
While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar
imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and
SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this
morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than
the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential
over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN
counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be
seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this
morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this
outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of
the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large
hail.
Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the
precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a
new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late
tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen
with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX
threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this
overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may
vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the
Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be
seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs
of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl
pass acrs the region.
For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story.
Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading
into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized
convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s...
with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl
likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the
FA.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
558 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
MCS exited east central Kansas early this afternoon with outflow
boundary pushing north to near the Nebraska border. Airmass in this
are much more unstable and allowing scattered convection to form,
aided by a strong compact upper jet over Iowa. Other convection
continues to develop in northwest Kansas in apparent mid level
convergence, but where moisture is also rather rich in the low levels
with dewpoints around 60 into northeast Colorado. Final area of note
is in northeast Montana where convection is rather widespread with
an upper wave making ESE progress into the Plains.
Tonight into Friday is again a low confidence forecast. Models
continue to struggle, even rapid update guidance, and this is not
surprising given mesoscale forcing from continued MCS activity.
Latest HRRR and experimental HRRR similar in convection developing
over central portions of the area late this afternoon, but have
doubts given lack of forcing and only slow airmass recovery. Will
continue with small chances into the early evening with northwest
Kansas activity having at least small chances to persist. Most
models keep the bulk of the night dry with little forcing for ascent
and drier air around 850mb behind the old front. Dewpoints down into
the middle 60s for much of the area should help negate fog chances,
but could have clear skies along with light winds again tonight for
redevelopment. Attention for convection should turn to the northwest
with decent agreement in storms persisting southeast with the
Montana wave. This may not arrive until midday Friday at the
earliest, but have kept small pops for late tonight west and on east
during the day. Wind speeds aloft and some directional shear will
help support a marginal severe weather concern.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Initial concern will be if there is any ongoing convection Friday
evening as models differ with MCS timing. The NAM has plenty of
convection at the start of the period, while the other operational
models are dry in the evening and then bring an MCS southeast across
Nebraska and into northern Kansas Late Friday night and early
Saturday. Have gone with a blend of solutions emphasizing later
timing and lingering through Saturday morning. Saturday night a wave
moves out of the Rockies and across the Central Plains.
Thunderstorms look to remain mainly across Nebraska and Iowa with
and may also affect areas north of interstate 70. Upper level ridge
slowly builds northward Sunday and Sunday night. A wave is forecast
to move across the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night which
will bring a frontal boundary into southern Nebraska by Monday
morning. The front begins to light northward Monday night into
Tuesday, then lifts northeast on Tuesday. May see some convection
along the boundary and southeastward moving storms would perhaps
clip the far northeast counties of northeast Kansas through Tuesday
morning. The upper ridge builds across the Central Plains Tuesday
through Thursday with the main westerlies near the Canadian border.
High temperatures in the 80s are expected on Saturday then warming
into the 90s for the rest of the period. Areas of north central
Kansas and Central Kansas will warm to near 100 from Tuesday through
Thursday. Lows in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Expect light winds and mostly clear skies overnight which lead to
areas of dense fog last night however dewpoints are much lower
across the TAF sites tonight. Thus will keep mention of MVFR VIS
conds developing but no lower than that at this point. Any
convective clusters should stay in NE through 15Z with some risk
for t-storms at MHK by 18z Fri.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Omitt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
MCS exited east central Kansas early this afternoon with outflow
boundary pushing north to near the Nebraska border. Airmass in this
are much more unstable and allowing scattered convection to form,
aided by a strong compact upper jet over Iowa. Other convection
continues to develop in northwest Kansas in apparent mid level
convergence, but where moisture is also rather rich in the low levels
with dewpoints around 60 into northeast Colorado. Final area of note
is in northeast Montana where convection is rather widespread with
an upper wave making ESE progress into the Plains.
Tonight into Friday is again a low confidence forecast. Models
continue to struggle, even rapid update guidance, and this is not
surprising given mesoscale forcing from continued MCS activity.
Latest HRRR and experimental HRRR similar in convection developing
over central portions of the area late this afternoon, but have
doubts given lack of forcing and only slow airmass recovery. Will
continue with small chances into the early evening with northwest
Kansas activity having at least small chances to persist. Most
models keep the bulk of the night dry with little forcing for ascent
and drier air around 850mb behind the old front. Dewpoints down into
the middle 60s for much of the area should help negate fog chances,
but could have clear skies along with light winds again tonight for
redevelopment. Attention for convection should turn to the northwest
with decent agreement in storms persisting southeast with the
Montana wave. This may not arrive until midday Friday at the
earliest, but have kept small pops for late tonight west and on east
during the day. Wind speeds aloft and some directional shear will
help support a marginal severe weather concern.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Initial concern will be if there is any ongoing convection Friday
evening as models differ with MCS timing. The NAM has plenty of
convection at the start of the period, while the other operational
models are dry in the evening and then bring an MCS southeast across
Nebraska and into northern Kansas Late Friday night and early
Saturday. Have gone with a blend of solutions emphasizing later
timing and lingering through Saturday morning. Saturday night a wave
moves out of the Rockies and across the Central Plains.
Thunderstorms look to remain mainly across Nebraska and Iowa with
and may also affect areas north of interstate 70. Upper level ridge
slowly builds northward Sunday and Sunday night. A wave is forecast
to move across the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night which
will bring a frontal boundary into southern Nebraska by Monday
morning. The front begins to light northward Monday night into
Tuesday, then lifts northeast on Tuesday. May see some convection
along the boundary and southeastward moving storms would perhaps
clip the far northeast counties of northeast Kansas through Tuesday
morning. The upper ridge builds across the Central Plains Tuesday
through Thursday with the main westerlies near the Canadian border.
High temperatures in the 80s are expected on Saturday then warming
into the 90s for the rest of the period. Areas of north central
Kansas and Central Kansas will warm to near 100 from Tuesday through
Thursday. Lows in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Spotty showers
across South-Central Nebraska will continue to dissipate as much
drier mid-level is in place across Eastern Kansas. As for
thunderstorm chances later this afternoon and evening...Confidence
continues to increase for all terminals remaining dry. The other
concern is the potential for fog Friday morning. At this point,
confidence remains low, as mid-level cloud cover may hinder fog
development.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Baerg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1211 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Another forward propagating MCS is trying to become organized across
northwest KS early this morning. Most model guidance show the MCS
intensifying as it moves east-southeast across west central KS into
central KS. Though the meso scale models show the MCS weakening as
it moves into the southwest counties of the CWA, then it becomes
disorganized through the mid morning hours. We`ll have to watch
trends in the intensity and path of the MCS through the morning
hours. If the MCS can maintain itself as it moves into the western
counties of the CWA it may produce strong to severe wind gusts along
with heavy rainfall. The WRF solutions does show 2,000 to 3,000
MUCAPE across much of the southern counties of the CWA during the
mid morning hours. The experimental HRRR and WRF solutions show that
the outflow may become too dominate as the MCS moves southeast into
central KS with the OFB pushing ahead of the leading convective
line, which may cause the complex to weaken as it moves east-
southeast. The weakening storm complex should move east across the
southern counties of the CWA during the mid and late morning hours.
Most models show another MCS developing across east central CO into
southwest KS by sunrise. This forward propagating MCS is forecasted
to intensify as it digs southeast across south central KS into
northern OK during the mid morning and early afternoon hours. The
only model that is much farther north with this MCS is the GFS which
clips the southwest counties of the CWA during the early afternoon
hours, though all other numerical models keep the southern MCS
southwest and west of the CWA. I`ll put the higher pops Today along
the southern counties of the CWA after 12Z through 21Z with lower
pops farther north to the NE border. I think once the complex of
thunderstorms exit the southeast counties in the early afternoon
hours we will remain dry through the late afternoon and night time
hours. I kept low chance pops Tonight in the southern half of the
CWA since the NAM and GFS forecast QPF through the evening hours. A
cold front will pass southward across the CWA during the afternoon
hours, though it may be difficult to find due the convective
outflow. If we clear out during the late afternoon hours we will see
highs reach the mid to upper 80s.
Tonight the meso-scale model show an MCS developing across western
NE which will track southeast. It will not approach our western
counties until after 12Z FRI.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
On Friday there could be some lingering showers and isolated storms
especially in the morning due to any MCS that moves through southern
KS overnight. The afternoon should be mostly dry as the return flow
develops across the central plains. Friday night the warm advection
pattern and a possible mid level shortwave could support an MCS.
This MCS could develop Friday afternoon in SD or western NE and move
to the southeast, and could very well weaken before it arrives. The
low level jet appears to strengthen with the axis centered over
central KS/NE, before it veers through out the morning. Some
isentropic lift ahead of any convection system could support
isolated showers and storms with the better chances in far northern
KS. There is some model disagreement on where if any subtle mid level
wave will track over the region. On Saturday there is a chance for
linger showers and storms from the overnight MCS, but no obvious
feature to focus any lift later in the day. Due to the morning
timing of storms the chances for strong to severe threats is low at
this time unless it can stay organized. A similar scenario could
unfold Saturday night with a possible MCS in NE and far northern KS.
This convection looks to develop along a cold front sweeping
eastward. This cold front may barely clip northeast KS Sunday night
and Monday before it quickly lifts back northward. This all in
response to the mid level ridge building over the region. This will
send the storm track to the northern states and allow the heat to
expand eastward. Temperatures will be well above normal starting
Sunday reaching the 100s for some locations. Temperatures gradually
warm into late week with a majority of the area in the 100s with dew
points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Spotty showers
across South-Central Nebraska will continue to dissipate as much
drier mid-level is in place across Eastern Kansas. As for
thunderstorm chances later this afternoon and evening...Confidence
continues to increase for all terminals remaining dry. The other
concern is the potential for fog Friday morning. At this point,
confidence remains low, as mid-level cloud cover may hinder fog
development.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Baerg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
638 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Another forward propagating MCS is trying to become organized across
northwest KS early this morning. Most model guidance show the MCS
intensifying as it moves east-southeast across west central KS into
central KS. Though the meso scale models show the MCS weakening as
it moves into the southwest counties of the CWA, then it becomes
disorganized through the mid morning hours. We`ll have to watch
trends in the intensity and path of the MCS through the morning
hours. If the MCS can maintain itself as it moves into the western
counties of the CWA it may produce strong to severe wind gusts along
with heavy rainfall. The WRF solutions does show 2,000 to 3,000
MUCAPE across much of the southern counties of the CWA during the
mid morning hours. The experimental HRRR and WRF solutions show that
the outflow may become too dominate as the MCS moves southeast into
central KS with the OFB pushing ahead of the leading convective
line, which may cause the complex to weaken as it moves east-
southeast. The weakening storm complex should move east across the
southern counties of the CWA during the mid and late morning hours.
Most models show another MCS developing across east central CO into
southwest KS by sunrise. This forward propagating MCS is forecasted
to intensify as it digs southeast across south central KS into
northern OK during the mid morning and early afternoon hours. The
only model that is much farther north with this MCS is the GFS which
clips the southwest counties of the CWA during the early afternoon
hours, though all other numerical models keep the southern MCS
southwest and west of the CWA. I`ll put the higher pops Today along
the southern counties of the CWA after 12Z through 21Z with lower
pops farther north to the NE border. I think once the complex of
thunderstorms exit the southeast counties in the early afternoon
hours we will remain dry through the late afternoon and night time
hours. I kept low chance pops Tonight in the southern half of the
CWA since the NAM and GFS forecast QPF through the evening hours. A
cold front will pass southward across the CWA during the afternoon
hours, though it may be difficult to find due the convective
outflow. If we clear out during the late afternoon hours we will see
highs reach the mid to upper 80s.
Tonight the meso-scale model show an MCS developing across western
NE which will track southeast. It will not approach our western
counties until after 12Z FRI.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
On Friday there could be some lingering showers and isolated storms
especially in the morning due to any MCS that moves through southern
KS overnight. The afternoon should be mostly dry as the return flow
develops across the central plains. Friday night the warm advection
pattern and a possible mid level shortwave could support an MCS.
This MCS could develop Friday afternoon in SD or western NE and move
to the southeast, and could very well weaken before it arrives. The
low level jet appears to strengthen with the axis centered over
central KS/NE, before it veers through out the morning. Some
isentropic lift ahead of any convection system could support
isolated showers and storms with the better chances in far northern
KS. There is some model disagreement on where if any subtle mid level
wave will track over the region. On Saturday there is a chance for
linger showers and storms from the overnight MCS, but no obvious
feature to focus any lift later in the day. Due to the morning
timing of storms the chances for strong to severe threats is low at
this time unless it can stay organized. A similar scenario could
unfold Saturday night with a possible MCS in NE and far northern KS.
This convection looks to develop along a cold front sweeping
eastward. This cold front may barely clip northeast KS Sunday night
and Monday before it quickly lifts back northward. This all in
response to the mid level ridge building over the region. This will
send the storm track to the northern states and allow the heat to
expand eastward. Temperatures will be well above normal starting
Sunday reaching the 100s for some locations. Temperatures gradually
warm into late week with a majority of the area in the 100s with dew
points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
VLIFR visibilities will continue through 13Z at the Topeka
terminals. Visibilities are expected to improve to VFR after 13Z.
An area of showers across north-central KS is expected to move
across MHK between 13Z and 15Z and the Topeka terminals between
15Z and 17Z. There is a possibility for shower and thunderstorm
activity at all terminals late this afternoon and evening, however
confidence is very low due to lack of forcing in the area. Fog is
also possible near dawn tomorrow morning, will defer any mention
to future outlooks.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ012-
022>024-026-036-038>040-055.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Baerg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
321 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Another forward propagating MCS is trying to become organized across
northwest KS early this morning. Most model guidance show the MCS
intensifying as it moves east-southeast across west central KS into
central KS. Though the meso scale models show the MCS weakening as
it moves into the southwest counties of the CWA, then it becomes
disorganized through the mid morning hours. We`ll have to watch
trends in the intensity and path of the MCS through the morning
hours. If the MCS can maintain itself as it moves into the western
counties of the CWA it may produce strong to severe wind gusts along
with heavy rainfall. The WRF solutions does show 2,000 to 3,000
MUCAPE across much of the southern counties of the CWA during the
mid morning hours. The experimental HRRR and WRF solutions show that
the outflow may become too dominate as the MCS moves southeast into
central KS with the OFB pushing ahead of the leading convective
line, which may cause the complex to weaken as it moves east-
southeast. The weakening storm complex should move east across the
southern counties of the CWA during the mid and late morning hours.
Most models show another MCS developing across east central CO into
southwest KS by sunrise. This forward propagating MCS is forecasted
to intensify as it digs southeast across south central KS into
northern OK during the mid morning and early afternoon hours. The
only model that is much farther north with this MCS is the GFS which
clips the southwest counties of the CWA during the early afternoon
hours, though all other numerical models keep the southern MCS
southwest and west of the CWA. I`ll put the higher pops Today along
the southern counties of the CWA after 12Z through 21Z with lower
pops farther north to the NE border. I think once the complex of
thunderstorms exit the southeast counties in the early afternoon
hours we will remain dry through the late afternoon and night time
hours. I kept low chance pops Tonight in the southern half of the
CWA since the NAM and GFS forecast QPF through the evening hours. A
cold front will pass southward across the CWA during the afternoon
hours, though it may be difficult to find due the convective
outflow. If we clear out during the late afternoon hours we will see
highs reach the mid to upper 80s.
Tonight the meso-scale model show an MCS developing across western
NE which will track southeast. It will not approach our western
counties until after 12Z FRI.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
On Friday there could be some lingering showers and isolated storms
especially in the morning due to any MCS that moves through southern
KS overnight. The afternoon should be mostly dry as the return flow
develops across the central plains. Friday night the warm advection
pattern and a possible mid level shortwave could support an MCS.
This MCS could develop Friday afternoon in SD or western NE and move
to the southeast, and could very well weaken before it arrives. The
low level jet appears to strengthen with the axis centered over
central KS/NE, before it veers through out the morning. Some
isentropic lift ahead of any convection system could support
isolated showers and storms with the better chances in far northern
KS. There is some model disagreement on where if any subtle mid level
wave will track over the region. On Saturday there is a chance for
linger showers and storms from the overnight MCS, but no obvious
feature to focus any lift later in the day. Due to the morning
timing of storms the chances for strong to severe threats is low at
this time unless it can stay organized. A similar scenario could
unfold Saturday night with a possible MCS in NE and far northern KS.
This convection looks to develop along a cold front sweeping
eastward. This cold front may barely clip northeast KS Sunday night
and Monday before it quickly lifts back northward. This all in
response to the mid level ridge building over the region. This will
send the storm track to the northern states and allow the heat to
expand eastward. Temperatures will be well above normal starting
Sunday reaching the 100s for some locations. Temperatures gradually
warm into late week with a majority of the area in the 100s with dew
points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
This is a low confidence forecast with fog reducing VIS conds
expected especially at TOP near river bottoms for a time overnight before
an organizing cluster of storms moves ESE into the area after 10z
with CIGS that should diminish any fog but would also introduce
TSRA risks at the TAF sites after 10z. Various model solutions
abound but will play a scenario which brings at least sct
convection around the TAF sites after 10z.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Omitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
253 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Mostly quiet conditions ongoing across the CWA early this morning
after additional isolated/scattered SHRA/TSRA developed during the
evening hrs on Fri. This activity drifted south over time...with
just some light SHRA leftover across far SRN AR. Dry conditions were
observed elsewhere early this morning...with temperatures in the
mid 60s to mid 70s.
Chances for SHRA/TSRA will remain in the forecast through this
evening as additional development is possible during the heating of
the afternoon hrs. The exact location of precip will be somewhat
uncertain...and may be triggered by leftover outflow boundaries from
Fri evening convection. As a result...just mention slight chance
pops for isolated afternoon SHRA/TSRA. The SVR WX potential will
also be low...though cannot completely rule out a strong to SVR
storm. The primary threat with the strongest storms will be damaging
winds...and locally heavy rainfall possible as storms will be slow
moving. Highs this Sat will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s...with
heat index values peaking in the 95 to 103 range this afternoon.
Upper level ridging will increase for Sun...with high pressure
building aloft over the region. As a result...the chances for precip
will become more limited...so have kept only silent pops. Highs will
be a couple deg higher than expected this Sat...with generally upper
80s to upper 90s. Heat index values will also increase...with upper
90s to around 104 during the hottest part of the day. Even hotter
conditions will be seen in the long term period...with heat
advisories possible for next week.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
Not a lot has changed versus this time last night as all medium
range models continue to show upper level ridging building over the
middle of the country early in the period. Feature is expected to
strengthen and then dominant through most of the the period before
beginning to break down late Friday and into Saturday.
Center of the upper ridge will be centered just to the west of the
state keeping the area in southerly flow along with a constant
supply of gulf moisture. As the ridge gets established, high
temperatures will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during
the day and only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture
levels, heat indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will
be needed.
Even diurnally driven, garden variety thunderstorm will be tough,
but not impossible, to get going in this environment. However, only
silent pops seem justified at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 89 74 94 76 / 20 20 10 0
Camden AR 94 75 96 76 / 30 20 10 0
Harrison AR 88 72 93 73 / 30 20 10 0
Hot Springs AR 92 74 95 76 / 20 20 10 0
Little Rock AR 93 75 96 77 / 20 20 10 0
Monticello AR 93 76 95 76 / 20 20 10 0
Mount Ida AR 92 73 94 74 / 20 20 10 0
Mountain Home AR 89 73 94 73 / 20 20 10 0
Newport AR 90 74 94 75 / 20 20 10 0
Pine Bluff AR 92 75 95 76 / 20 20 10 0
Russellville AR 92 74 96 75 / 20 20 10 0
Searcy AR 92 74 95 75 / 20 20 10 0
Stuttgart AR 92 75 95 76 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...62 / Long Term...56
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms...isolated in central and south
sections...will dissipate early in the taf period. Patchy fog is
expected late tonight into the morning. MVFR conditions are
expected early in the period and with any fog that develops toward
morning...and then VFR from mid morning through the end of the
period. Some isolated SHRA/TSRA could be seen for some sites on
Sat afternoon as well.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
UPDATE...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue this evening in parts
of central and south Arkansas. Flash flooding has occurred with
some of these storms and at least 3.15 inches has fallen at Little
Rock Adams Field. These storms will likely dissipate late this
evening or around midnight. Mostly cloudy skies will continue
overnight and patchy fog will develop in some locations late.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
858 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue this evening in parts
of central and south Arkansas. Flash flooding has occured with
some of these storms and at least 3.15 inches has fallen at Little
Rock Adams Field. These storms will likely dissipate late this
evening or around midnight. Mostly cloudy skies will continue
overnight and patchy fog will develop in some locations late.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the area as a short wave moves through the state. Do not
expect them to be as widespread as yesterday...and they should
dissipate by late evening. Patchy fog is expected late tonight
into the morning. MVFR conditions are expected this evening and
tonight then VFR from mid morning on.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
.Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
858 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue this evening in parts
of central and south Arkansas. Flash flooding has occured with
some of these storms and at least 3.15 inches has fallen at Little
Rock Adams Field. These storms will likely dissipate late this
evening or around midnight. Mostly cloudy skies will continue
overnight and patchy fog will develop in some locations late.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the area as a short wave moves through the state. Do not
expect them to be as widespread as yesterday...and they should
dissipate by late evening. Patchy fog is expected late tonight
into the morning. MVFR conditions are expected this evening and
tonight then VFR from mid morning on.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
.Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
643 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the area as a short wave moves through the state. Do not
expect them to be as widespread as yesterday...and they should
dissipate by late evening. Patchy fog is expected late tonight
into the morning. MVFR conditions are expected this evening and
tonight then VFR from mid morning on.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
..Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
...Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 89 74 94 / 30 20 10 10
Camden AR 73 93 77 97 / 30 20 0 10
Harrison AR 68 88 71 92 / 20 20 10 10
Hot Springs AR 72 91 76 95 / 30 20 0 10
Little Rock AR 74 92 76 96 / 30 30 10 10
Monticello AR 75 93 76 96 / 30 30 0 10
Mount Ida AR 71 90 74 94 / 20 20 10 10
Mountain Home AR 69 90 72 94 / 20 20 10 10
Newport AR 71 90 75 95 / 30 30 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 74 91 76 95 / 30 30 0 10
Russellville AR 71 91 74 96 / 20 20 10 10
Searcy AR 72 91 74 95 / 30 30 10 10
Stuttgart AR 73 92 75 96 / 40 30 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.AVIATION...
Forecasts will reflect best chances for diurnally enhanced...late
afternoon convection. Expect scattered MVFR conditions due to fog
overnight.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
UPDATE...
Observational data indicate weakening convection...across
central...through northwest portions of the state.
Some immediate clearing is noted behind this activity...and
should allow for some destabilization to support scattered mid to
late afternoon convection.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Observational data indicate weakening convection...across
central...through northwest portions of the state.
Some immediate clearing is noted behind this activity...and
should allow for some destabilization to support scattered mid to
late afternoon convection.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 89 70 89 74 / 40 30 20 10
Camden AR 95 75 96 77 / 40 30 20 10
Harrison AR 87 68 86 71 / 40 30 40 10
Hot Springs AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 30 10
Little Rock AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 40 30 10
Monticello AR 92 75 94 76 / 40 30 20 10
Mount Ida AR 91 73 92 75 / 50 30 40 10
Mountain Home AR 88 69 87 72 / 40 30 40 10
Newport AR 90 71 90 75 / 40 30 20 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 20 10
Russellville AR 91 72 91 74 / 40 30 40 10
Searcy AR 90 71 91 74 / 40 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 73 92 75 / 40 40 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...62 / Long Term...56
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1203 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Most of the precip has moved out of the state very early this
morning...and will generally see dry conditions overnight.
However...some fog will be possible due to the rainfall seen on
Thu evening. Some SHRA/TSRA currently ongoing over portions of
OK...and may push into SWRN AR overnight into Fri morning...but
potential to see impacts at terminals is low. There will remain
chances for SHRA/TSRA for Fri...with VCTS and PROB30 mentioned.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 73 89 70 90 / 50 40 30 20
Camden AR 77 93 75 95 / 50 30 30 40
Harrison AR 69 86 69 87 / 50 40 30 40
Hot Springs AR 75 92 75 92 / 70 40 30 30
Little Rock AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Monticello AR 77 92 75 93 / 70 40 30 40
Mount Ida AR 73 91 72 91 / 70 50 30 30
Mountain Home AR 70 87 70 87 / 50 40 30 30
Newport AR 73 89 71 90 / 50 40 30 20
Pine Bluff AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Russellville AR 74 91 74 91 / 70 50 30 30
Searcy AR 73 90 72 91 / 50 40 30 30
Stuttgart AR 75 91 73 92 / 50 40 30 30
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.AVIATION...
Forecasts will continue to reflect MCS type development...most
likely to affect the forecast area between 14/22 and 15/03z.
Expect scattered areas of MVFR conditions due to fog between 15/06
and 15/15z.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1058 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
UPDATE...
Near term conditions will depend on a number of mesoscale
features. MCV analyzed over west-central Arkansas at 1530z will
continue eastward this afternoon. A decaying outflow boundary is
now located from near Dumas...to near Hot Springs. Instability
analysis indicates a fair amount of convective overturning has
occurred this morning across northeast sections of the state.
Approaching convection...across northern Oklahoma...to southeast
Kansas...will have a favorable environment to reach western
sections of the forecast area by mid afternoon.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
A cluster of SHRA/TSRA is moving south across NRN sections of the
state this morning...with additional isolated to scattered
activity developing across all but SRN sections of the state. The
NRN terminals are seeing MVFR or lower conditions at this
time...which will be story under the more intense convection. Will
see some improvements for these sites later this morning as this
activity drops south. Elsewhere...will see generally scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning into the early afternoon hrs...then a break
in the precip should be seen by mid to late afternoon. This
evening into the overnight period...additional SHRA/TSRA will be
possible....with MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more
intense convection. However...only mention VCTS at this time after
00Z as timing and location are uncertain.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over
portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much
stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and
portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the
activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the
weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over
portions of AR.
The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding
the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity
to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the
HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems
reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the
next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may
remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR
over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to
briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail.
Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN
counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time.
While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar
imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and
SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this
morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than
the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential
over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN
counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be
seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this
morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this
outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of
the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large
hail.
Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the
precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a
new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late
tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen
with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX
threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this
overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may
vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the
Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be
seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs
of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl
pass acrs the region.
For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story.
Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading
into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized
convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s...
with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl
likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the
FA.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
303 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
Isentropic lift on the 310-320 K surfaces should begin to increase
in the next few hours over central KS. Expect that scattered showers
and storms will develop over central KS and move to the east
northeast through the late morning hours. The NAM is the aggressive
with keeping the lift across the forecast area through the early
afternoon. Consensus is that the instability this morning will be
around 1000-2000 j/kg and given the convection will be elevated the
shear will be limited. Therefore expect that these storms will stay
below severe limits. All of this is in to response of a weak front
stretched across central KS. A surface low pressure will deepen over
northeast CO later today, which will lift the front into southwest
NE. Soundings show that an elevated mix layer builds over the area
this afternoon, which should prevent any surface based convection.
Current water vapor shows an on going MCS in southeast MT supported
by a mid level shortwave. This wave will track over the northern
plains later today, and should initiate convection in SD, while
additional development is possible near the surface low pressure in
western NE. These clusters of storms could develop into several MCSs
that will move east southeastward during the evening hours. The low
level jet is forecasted to increase during this time frame, and may
support an MCS to move into portions of northeast KS, and or may
initiate additional convection over any existing cold pools across
eastern NE. There will be plenty of instability across the forecast
area, and sufficient shear needed to sustain a balanced cold pool
with the environment. As of now the most most likely track for an
MCS will be eastern NE and western IA. Any MCS will pose a risk for
damaging wind especially for areas along and north of I-70 through
the overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
Frontal boundary sagging southward out of the northern plains into
western Kansas by late Sunday afternoon slows to a near stop through
the overnight hours into early Monday. Stronger flow to the north
and overnight LLJ also focus better chances north of the area late
Sunday night into early Monday. Initial impacts on temperatures
will be for a warm boost on Sunday as the mid level thermal ridge
ahead of the front rises into northeast Kansas, and have highs
from the lower 90s far northeast to near 102 out in central
Kansas, with overnight lows holding generally in the low 70s west
to middle 70s east. Could get a break with some cool outflow from
storms to the northeast. Have only kept low PoPs for early Sunday
and again in the overnight hours as think most storms will stay
north and east. Surface high advances farther south and east into
Monday, as upper flow takes a shift to the west northwest. This
could give one last day in the low to middle 90s before
temperatures ramp up for the week. Some models generating very
light QPF for Monday, but outside the boundary to focus on, not
seeing a strong source of lift and have just kept a slight chance
near or north of the front on Monday.
Northeasterly return of the 850mb front brings warm advection over
eastern Kansas Monday night, and have slight to chance for precip
mainly north of I70, pivoting over the eastern counties through
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures rise out west back to upper 90s,
spreading into the eastern counties by Wednesday afternoon. Many
locations expected to see the century mark for Thursday and Friday
as the center of the upper high shifts over southern Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period although some
scattered clouds around 2500 feet are expected to move over TAF
sites between 08Z-13Z. There is a small chance for these to have
greater coverage, and also to be associated with scattered
thunderstorms, so for now have indicated SCT025 and VCTS during
the most likely timing at each site. Small chances for storms
through the day Saturday, but no period with high enough chance to
highlight in TAF.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
For today, upper level ridging and warming move back into the
Central Plains. Light southeast winds becoming southerly and
increase to 20 to 35 mph in the afternoon as a warm front moves back
across western Kansas. There could be some isolated thunderstorms
near the Colorado border and near Medicine Lodge by later afternoon
and evening. The best instability is in parts of south central
Kansas with forecast CAPE around 3000 J/kg. If a storm does go it
could become marginally severe. High today will be much warmer with
the warmer southerly winds with highs in the upper 90s far west to
the lower to mid 90s elsewhere with mostly clear skies.
For tonight, expect mostly clear skies and mild lows in the lower to
middle 70s and south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
For Sunday, a shortwave trough moves across the Northern Plains
pushing a frontal system into western Kansas. Winds are warm and
southerly near Dodge and south and more easterly north of the front.
Highs will be around 100 near Dodge City and south and slightly
cooler north in the mid to upper 90s. Models show little to no
chances for storms with the front at this time.
After Sunday, upper level ridging and warming build deeply into the
Plains with dry conditions and highs in the upper 90s to around 100
each day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
VFR conditions are expected post MCS with light upslope winds. As
a pressure gradient increases, winds will shift to the south and
increase to 18-28kt late this morning and into the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 73 99 70 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 95 71 97 69 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 97 70 100 70 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 98 72 101 70 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 90 72 100 71 / 10 10 10 20
P28 94 74 100 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
For today, upper level ridging and warming move back into the
Central Plains. Light southeast winds becoming southerly and
increase to 20 to 35 mph in the afternoon as a warm front moves back
across western Kansas. There could be some isolated thunderstorms
near the Colorado border and near Medicine Lodge by later afternoon
and evening. The best instability is in parts of south central
Kansas with forecast CAPE around 3000 J/kg. If a storm does go it
could become marginally severe. High today will be much warmer with
the warmer southerly winds with highs in the upper 90s far west to
the lower to mid 90s elsewhere with mostly clear skies.
For tonight, expect mostly clear skies and mild lows in the lower to
middle 70s and south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
For Sunday, a shortwave trough moves across the Northern Plains
pushing a frontal system into western Kansas. Winds are warm and
southerly near Dodge and south and more easterly north of the front.
Highs will be around 100 near Dodge City and south and slightly
cooler north in the mid to upper 90s. Models show little to no
chances for storms with the front at this time.
After Sunday, upper level ridging and warming build deeply into the
Plains with dry conditions and highs in the upper 90s to around 100
each day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
VFR conditions are expected post MCS with light upslope winds. As
a pressure gradient increases, winds will shift to the south and
increase to 18-28kt late this morning and into the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 73 99 70 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 95 71 97 69 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 97 70 100 70 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 98 72 101 70 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 90 72 100 71 / 10 10 10 20
P28 94 74 100 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
...Updated for Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
For today, upper level ridging and warming move back into the
Central Plains. Light southeast winds becoming southerly and
increase to 20 to 35 mph in the afternoon as a warm front moves back
across western Kansas. There could be some isolated thunderstorms
near the Colorado border and near Medicine Lodge by later afternoon
and evening. The best instability is in parts of south central
Kansas with forecast CAPE around 3000 J/kg. If a storm does go it
could become marginally severe. High today will be much warmer with
the warmer southerly winds with highs in the upper 90s far west to
the lower to mid 90s elsewhere with mostly clear skies.
For tonight, expect mostly clear skies and mild lows in the lower to
middle 70s and south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Not much emphasis on the Long Term given quieter weather regime
through much of this period and all the focus on the more
important near term severe weather threat. Looking at the long
term global models, they all still agree on a 600 decameter 500mb
high settling in through much of the week which will result in
persistent daytime highs around 100 each day and lows generally in
the lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
VFR conditions are expected post MCS with light upslope winds. As
a pressure gradient increases, winds will shift to the south and
increase to 18-28kt late this morning and into the afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 73 99 70 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 95 71 97 69 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 97 70 100 70 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 98 72 101 70 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 90 72 100 71 / 10 10 10 20
P28 94 74 100 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Kruse
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1152 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Just completed an update. First was to add pops this evening to
the northeast corner. Weak surface convergence along with a weak
shortwave trough have caused thunderstorms to develop in that
area. Next the newer guidance is supporting a little further west
solution of pops during the overnight hours so moved those slight
chance pops further west.
Lastly, high resolution coming in with more fog, especially in the
western half. So increased to areas in the area with patchy fog
everywhere. Also increased sky cover as well.
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Earlier in the hour completed an update. Gust/cold front have
pushed through the area and have pushed thunderstorms and severe
threat to the south of the area. Mesoscale influences have caused
the front to be further south than most hires/Cams have taken into
account. Overall the HRRR is catching the current situation well
and better than other output in all facets and relied upon it for
this update. Much more stable air mass is now over our area. As a
result have cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch and lowered
pops through the evening.
Does not look to be a lot of lift around this evening except for
upslope/terrain influences. This has caused some thunderstorms to
develop to our west. Not sure how far east they will make it. Have
kept low chance and slight chance pops in the southern and western
areas through the middle of the night.
Mid level warm air advection and shortwave trough push across/closer
to the area after midnight. As a result left the slight chance
pops in over the northeast after midnight. Am a little concerned
now with the front to our south...more overrunning and lift will
occur. Will let newer data come in and assess the need to expand
pops.
Also due to the strong cold/gust front moving through and outflow
from strong outflow from storms to our south...strong upslope
winds are in place over the entire area. Some higher stratus has
already developed and think that will remain and expand through
the night. Increased cloud cover but may need to increase it more.
Also hires output is starting to indicate fog development. That is
reasonable given current conditions and inserted patchy fog
through early tomorrow morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Thunderstorms have already developed in vicinity of meso low near
the Colorado and Kansas border. SB CAPE exceeds 3000 J/KG with
axis extending along and ahead of stalled front (currently near
Goodland)in northeast to southeast orientation. Strong mid level
flow along with veering wind profiles have resulted in effective
helicity values exceeding 300 m2/s2 overlapping this strong region
of CAPE. LCLs are a little high in favorable warm sector, however
tornadic threat exists considering high CAPE/shear environment.
Large hail (baseball size or larger) and strong microbursts will
be threats with the activity this afternoon.
High resolution guidance shows this activity increasing in
coverage and eventually merging into a MCS as shortwave (nose of
which is in central Colorado) moves over this stalled front. This
is then shown to dive south along CAPE axis, which puts the peak
threat for severe weather no through around 00z in our CWA.
Increasing ascent and the possibility that the front begins to
lift back north raises the possibility that additional activity
(likely elevated) could develop across much of our CWA this
afternoon/evening. Some guidance has shown possibility for
elevated convective activity developing later in the evening and
overnight behind the departing MCS, so I lingered slight chances
in our north and east where this weaker signal is shown.
A similar air mass as this morning is indicated overnight and
depending on clearing we should have similar low temps (60-66).
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Saturday and Sunday: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
across far southwest Nebraska will be possible Saturday afternoon
with isolated thunderstorm chances elsewhere as a weak shortwave
traverses the region. A ridge will begin to slowly build into the
central Plains through the day on Sunday with an axis centered in
northern TX and southern OK. Moisture levels will increase in the
western portions of the CWA along the edge of the ridge which could
lead to slight chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms on
Sunday and Monday. There will be modest mid-afternoon
instability on Sunday and good instability on Monday.
Tuesday through Thursday: High pressure ridge at the H5 lvl will
approach 600dam by early Tuesday, remaining locked in over the
region through the forecast period. Afternoon high temperatures
will reach or slightly exceed 100 degrees across much of the CWA
with dew points in the 50 to 55 degree range on Wednesday and
Thursday. PoPs are nearly nil Tuesday through Thursday as the
ridge will prevail and dry, hot, weather will dominate the central
High Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1144 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Continued complicated set of tafs. For Kgld...conditions will
start at mvfr and then become ifr from 12z to 15z. Conditions will
then improve at 15z with mvfr becoming vfr around 18z. During the
morning southerly winds will increase to near 20 knots with gusts
around 30 knots. Near sunset the winds will decrease to 13 knots
gusts to near 19 knots. Thunderstorms for the rest of the night
and tomorrow evening are expected to not affect the site.
For Kmck...by 09z conditions will change from vfr to mvfr. After
that conditions will quickly lower ifr/lifr. Mvfr conditions will
return around 15z and become vfr once again around 18z.
Thunderstorms for the rest of tonight are now expected to not
affect the site. Around 18z southerly winds will increase to
around 16 knots with gusts to around 24 knots. These will decrease
around 02z. It is at that time that a thunderstorm complex should
start affecting the site. Since this is in the last 6 hours of the
forecast, chose to handle with a vcts at this time.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1157 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
At 20Z, Water Vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave continuing to
move through central and eastern Nebraska. The remnants of a
complex of storms from last night has slowly been working into
southeastern Nebraska. With relatively weak forcing associated with
the shortwave and conditional mid level lapse rates. This has kept
an area of showers and some stronger storms over south central
portions of Nebraska as afternoon heating has destabilized the local
environment ahead of storms. Meanwhile, upslope flow near a
stationary boundary over western KS and southeastern Colorado was
helping to support afternoon convection over the region. A weak
cold front remains stretched over south central and into east
central portions of Kansas into Missouri. Additionally, and outflow
boundary from the previously mentioned complex of storms over
Nebraska has finally made its way into northeastern and north
central Kansas and is currently stretched along the I-70 vicinity.
The forecast over the next 24 hours is such that small precip
chances will remain until the afternoon on Saturday. The complex of
remnant activity has struggled to build into the outlook area but
should continue to cause showers and potential thunderstorms over
mainly the northern counties and western counties of the CWA into
early this evening and tonight. SPC mesoanalysis suggests that
surface and MLCAPE is around 2500-3000 J/kg along I-70 but not much
has formed along the outflow boundary. Overnight, expecting that an
MCS will form and probably stay off to the southwest of the area,
but there is some potential that a few storms could work their way
into Central Kansas. But the bigger mechanism for overnight storm
potential seems to be associated with an area of isentropic lift
developing as the next upper low works into the Northern Rockies
into the Northern Plains by early morning helping to develop a warm
boundary stretching into the Central Plains region. Expect if
storms do form that they will generally work from southwest to
northeast through the area by mid to late morning time frame.
Temps have been suppressed a few degrees from the previous forecast
this afternoon across northern counties as the cooler outflow has
worked through the area earlier with a few showers and increased
cloud cover. Clouds should clear tomorrow with temps reaching the
mid to upper 80s over the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
Saturday Night through Monday...
Saturday night a wave will move through the northern Plains and into
the Great Lakes region. Convection is expected to develop across the
Northern and Central Plains and move east southeast across Nebraska
and may move across areas of northern Kansas mainly north of
Interstate 70. This feature will drive a cold front south into
southeast Nebraska and extend southwest into southwest Kansas. The
frontal boundary looks to hang up near the border then move slightly
northward. Storms may develop Sunday evening and overnight across
central and eastern Nebraska and move east southeast across far
northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and Iowa. The storms should
develop within a zone of moisture convergence on the nose of the low
level jet Sunday night. Good moisture transport should help maintain
the convection as it moves east southeast through the Mid Missouri
Valley. Thermal advection will occur Sunday through Monday with the
thermal axis across central into northeast Kansas. Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the upper 90s to around 102 near central Kansas.
Monday Night through Friday...
The main headline for the extended period is: HEAT! Upper-level
ridging will continue to build across the Central and Southern
Plains throughout next week. A few thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday morning/early afternoon as a weak wave rides across the
ridge. Tuesday`s high temperatures are bit tricky, as the rate of
cloud cover clearing will greatly impact temperatures. Temperatures
the remainder of the period will remain hot, with high temperatures
in the upper 90s to perhaps low 100s and lows in the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees. These very hot temperatures coupled with dew points
in the upper 60s and lower 70s will make for very uncomfortable
conditions. Heat indicies are expected to be in the 105 to 110+
degree range Wednesday through Friday. Unfortunately, the heat wave
looks to continue into next weekend as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period although some
scattered clouds around 2500 feet are expected to move over TAF
sites between 08Z-13Z. There is a small chance for these to have
greater coverage, and also to be associated with scattered
thunderstorms, so for now have indicated SCT025 and VCTS during
the most likely timing at each site. Small chances for storms
through the day Saturday, but no period with high enough chance to
highlight in TAF.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Baerg/53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
...Updated for 06z TAF Discussion Toward Bottom...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Organized strong/severe thunderstorm complex over southwest KS
continues to propagate southeast along greatest axis of low-level
theta-e and associated instability. Thinking brunt of this
activity will remain southwest of the forecast area, although
portions of Kingman, Harper and possibly Sumner counties could be
clipped. If this occurs, primary threats would be damaging winds
and possibly dime-quarter size hail, along with heavy rain.
Have updated the Hazardous Weather Outlook to reflect this.
Elsewhere, cannot rule out a few stray showers/thunderstorms
overnight, especially along/west of the Flint Hills, within
persistent zone of modest 700mb warm advection. However not
expecting this activity to be widespread/numerous or severe.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Late this Afternoon and Tonight:
Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible this evening
within a weakly capped airmass over portions of southern KS.
A southward propagating outflow boundary may also provide a focus
for a few storms across portions of central or south central KS.
Any storm that develops will have the potential to become severe
given 1500-2500 j/kg, steep mid lvl lapse rates and 0-6km shear
around 40 kts. The best chance for a severe storm or two should
remain mainly west of I-135 where quarter sized hail and damaging
wind gusts to around 60 mph will be possible. The better signal for
nocturnal storms may remain west of the area tonight but maintained
mid pops over much of south central KS while trimming pops further
east a bit as some of the activity out west may still impact
portions of south central KS late this evening and overnight before
diminishing.
MWM
Isolated elevated storms or accas will be possible over eastern
Kansas Saturday morning, with weak isentropic upglide occurring
within a north-south oriented mid-level baroclinic zone.
A subtropical mid-upper high will build over the south-central CONUS
later Saturday through Monday, with increased southerly flow and
warming low-mid level thicknesses. A weak front may sag southward to
near Interstate 70 late Sunday night into Monday, in association
with developing upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Northeast.
Small chances for storms will likely occur from northeast Colorado
into Nebraska and far northern Kansas, as weak perturbations ride
over top of the upper high just north of the front, however feel
most if not all of this activity would remain just north of
central Kansas. Otherwise, temperatures look to climb slightly
above seasonal averages by Sunday/Monday.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016
ECMWF...GFS and GEFS model data indicates the mid-upper high center
remaining entrenched over the south-central United States during
this extended forecast period, with slight strengthening of the
high by midweek. Difficult to foresee any significant frontal
boundaries making it this far south for rain chances. Therefore,
this should be a hot and dry stretch across Kansas, with above
normal temperatures, as many areas likely reach or exceed the
century mark for afternoon highs.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible
overnight, generally along and west of the Flint Hills, within a
zone of persistent 800-600mb isentropic ascent. The strongest
activity will be capable of small hail, gusty winds and locally
heavy rain. Latest short-term guidance suggests this lift and
associated thunderstorm threat may linger well into Saturday
morning, hence the VCTS at some sites until mid-late morning.
Thinking eventually mostly sunny skies will prevail by afternoon,
with increasingly strong/gusty south winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 69 91 74 98 / 30 20 10 0
Hutchinson 69 90 73 98 / 30 20 10 10
Newton 68 90 73 97 / 40 20 10 0
ElDorado 69 90 73 96 / 40 20 10 0
Winfield-KWLD 69 91 74 96 / 30 20 10 0
Russell 66 92 73 100 / 40 20 10 10
Great Bend 66 92 73 101 / 20 20 10 10
Salina 69 92 74 101 / 50 20 10 10
McPherson 68 90 73 97 / 50 20 10 10
Coffeyville 71 90 74 94 / 20 20 10 0
Chanute 69 90 73 94 / 20 20 10 0
Iola 69 89 73 94 / 20 20 10 10
Parsons-KPPF 70 89 73 93 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ADK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
...Updated for 06z TAF Discussion Toward Bottom...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Organized strong/severe thunderstorm complex over southwest KS
continues to propagate southeast along greatest axis of low-level
theta-e and associated instability. Thinking brunt of this
activity will remain southwest of the forecast area, although
portions of Kingman, Harper and possibly Sumner counties could be
clipped. If this occurs, primary threats would be damaging winds
and possibly dime-quarter size hail, along with heavy rain.
Have updated the Hazardous Weather Outlook to reflect this.
Elsewhere, cannot rule out a few stray showers/thunderstorms
overnight, especially along/west of the Flint Hills, within
persistent zone of modest 700mb warm advection. However not
expecting this activity to be widespread/numerous or severe.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Late this Afternoon and Tonight:
Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible this evening
within a weakly capped airmass over portions of southern KS.
A southward propagating outflow boundary may also provide a focus
for a few storms across portions of central or south central KS.
Any storm that develops will have the potential to become severe
given 1500-2500 j/kg, steep mid lvl lapse rates and 0-6km shear
around 40 kts. The best chance for a severe storm or two should
remain mainly west of I-135 where quarter sized hail and damaging
wind gusts to around 60 mph will be possible. The better signal for
nocturnal storms may remain west of the area tonight but maintained
mid pops over much of south central KS while trimming pops further
east a bit as some of the activity out west may still impact
portions of south central KS late this evening and overnight before
diminishing.
MWM
Isolated elevated storms or accas will be possible over eastern
Kansas Saturday morning, with weak isentropic upglide occurring
within a north-south oriented mid-level baroclinic zone.
A subtropical mid-upper high will build over the south-central CONUS
later Saturday through Monday, with increased southerly flow and
warming low-mid level thicknesses. A weak front may sag southward to
near Interstate 70 late Sunday night into Monday, in association
with developing upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Northeast.
Small chances for storms will likely occur from northeast Colorado
into Nebraska and far northern Kansas, as weak perturbations ride
over top of the upper high just north of the front, however feel
most if not all of this activity would remain just north of
central Kansas. Otherwise, temperatures look to climb slightly
above seasonal averages by Sunday/Monday.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016
ECMWF...GFS and GEFS model data indicates the mid-upper high center
remaining entrenched over the south-central United States during
this extended forecast period, with slight strengthening of the
high by midweek. Difficult to foresee any significant frontal
boundaries making it this far south for rain chances. Therefore,
this should be a hot and dry stretch across Kansas, with above
normal temperatures, as many areas likely reach or exceed the
century mark for afternoon highs.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible
overnight, generally along and west of the Flint Hills, within a
zone of persistent 800-600mb isentropic ascent. The strongest
activity will be capable of small hail, gusty winds and locally
heavy rain. Latest short-term guidance suggests this lift and
associated thunderstorm threat may linger well into Saturday
morning, hence the VCTS at some sites until mid-late morning.
Thinking eventually mostly sunny skies will prevail by afternoon,
with increasingly strong/gusty south winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 69 91 74 98 / 30 20 10 0
Hutchinson 69 90 73 98 / 30 20 10 10
Newton 68 90 73 97 / 40 20 10 0
ElDorado 69 90 73 96 / 40 20 10 0
Winfield-KWLD 69 91 74 96 / 30 20 10 0
Russell 66 92 73 100 / 40 20 10 10
Great Bend 66 92 73 101 / 20 20 10 10
Salina 69 92 74 101 / 50 20 10 10
McPherson 68 90 73 97 / 50 20 10 10
Coffeyville 71 90 74 94 / 20 20 10 0
Chanute 69 90 73 94 / 20 20 10 0
Iola 69 89 73 94 / 20 20 10 10
Parsons-KPPF 70 89 73 93 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ADK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
909 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Just completed an update. First was to add pops this evening to
the northeast corner. Weak surface convergence along with a weak
shortwave trough have caused thunderstorms to develop in that
area. Next the newer guidance is supporting a little further west
solution of pops during the overnight hours so moved those slight
chance pops further west.
Lastly, high resolution coming in with more fog, especially in the
western half. So increased to areas in the area with patchy fog
everywhere. Also increased sky cover as well.
UPDATE Issued at 543 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Earlier in the hour completed an update. Gust/cold front have
pushed through the area and have pushed thunderstorms and severe
threat to the south of the area. Mesoscale influences have caused
the front to be further south than most hires/Cams have taken into
account. Overall the HRRR is catching the current situation well
and better than other output in all facets and relied upon it for
this update. Much more stable air mass is now over our area. As a
result have cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch and lowered
pops through the evening.
Does not look to be a lot of lift around this evening except for
upslope/terrain influences. This has caused some thunderstorms to
develop to our west. Not sure how far east they will make it. Have
kept low chance and slight chance pops in the southern and western
areas through the middle of the night.
Mid level warm air advection and shortwave trough push across/closer
to the area after midnight. As a result left the slight chance
pops in over the northeast after midnight. Am a little concerned
now with the front to our south...more overrunning and lift will
occur. Will let newer data come in and assess the need to expand
pops.
Also due to the strong cold/gust front moving through and outflow
from strong outflow from storms to our south...strong upslope
winds are in place over the entire area. Some higher stratus has
already developed and think that will remain and expand through
the night. Increased cloud cover but may need to increase it more.
Also hires output is starting to indicate fog development. That is
reasonable given current conditions and inserted patchy fog
through early tomorrow morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Thunderstorms have already developed in vicinity of meso low near
the Colorado and Kansas border. SB CAPE exceeds 3000 J/KG with
axis extending along and ahead of stalled front (currently near
Goodland)in northeast to southeast orientation. Strong mid level
flow along with veering wind profiles have resulted in effective
helicity values exceeding 300 m2/s2 overlapping this strong region
of CAPE. LCLs are a little high in favorable warm sector, however
tornadic threat exists considering high CAPE/shear environment.
Large hail (baseball size or larger) and strong microbursts will
be threats with the activity this afternoon.
High resolution guidance shows this activity increasing in
coverage and eventually merging into a MCS as shortwave (nose of
which is in central Colorado) moves over this stalled front. This
is then shown to dive south along CAPE axis, which puts the peak
threat for severe weather no through around 00z in our CWA.
Increasing ascent and the possibility that the front begins to
lift back north raises the possibility that additional activity
(likely elevated) could develop across much of our CWA this
afternoon/evening. Some guidance has shown possibility for
elevated convective activity developing later in the evening and
overnight behind the departing MCS, so I lingered slight chances
in our north and east where this weaker signal is shown.
A similar air mass as this morning is indicated overnight and
depending on clearing we should have similar low temps (60-66).
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Saturday and Sunday: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
across far southwest Nebraska will be possible Saturday afternoon
with isolated thunderstorm chances elsewhere as a weak shortwave
traverses the region. A ridge will begin to slowly build into the
central Plains through the day on Sunday with an axis centered in
northern TX and southern OK. Moisture levels will increase in the
western portions of the CWA along the edge of the ridge which could
lead to slight chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms on
Sunday and Monday. There will be modest mid-afternoon
instability on Sunday and good instability on Monday.
Tuesday through Thursday: High pressure ridge at the H5 lvl will
approach 600dam by early Tuesday, remaining locked in over the
region through the forecast period. Afternoon high temperatures
will reach or slightly exceed 100 degrees across much of the CWA
with dew points in the 50 to 55 degree range on Wednesday and
Thursday. PoPs are nearly nil Tuesday through Thursday as the
ridge will prevail and dry, hot, weather will dominate the central
High Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016
Complicated set of tafs since mesoscale influences have changed
reality from earlier hires/Convective allowing output was
indicating. At this time the HRRR is catching reality the best.
Do not expect any thunderstorms to affect either taf. However...
strong upslope winds will continue to develop stratus and will
eventually cause fog to develop.
For Kgld...easterly surface winds near 20 knots gusting to near 28
knots will end by 03z. Mvfr ceilings are expected to last into
tomorrow morning. Some fog is expected to develop after midnight
but is only expected to be 6sm. However since model output is
still playing catching it is possible that lower visibilities may
need to be introduced...and some hint that may happen. However
chose to not go lower on the visibilities at this time but will
continue to watch.
For Kmck...Gusty easterly winds will end by 03z. Vfr conditions
are expected to last through the evening. Around 07z mvfr
conditions are expected to develop and continue through the
morning hours. As with Kgld do expect 6sm br however this may need
to be lowered as newer/better model data comes in.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BULLER
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
545 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Some isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible through this afternoon
and into the early evening hrs...with some isolated SHRA/TSRA
already ongoing across portions of SRN AR. However...widespread
reduction in flight rules is not expected. Beyond the evening
hrs...expect generally dry weather and VFR conditions continuing.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Mostly quiet conditions ongoing across the CWA early this morning
after additional isolated/scattered SHRA/TSRA developed during the
evening hrs on Fri. This activity drifted south over time...with
just some light SHRA leftover across far SRN AR. Dry conditions were
observed elsewhere early this morning...with temperatures in the
mid 60s to mid 70s.
Chances for SHRA/TSRA will remain in the forecast through this
evening as additional development is possible during the heating of
the afternoon hrs. The exact location of precip will be somewhat
uncertain...and may be triggered by leftover outflow boundaries from
Fri evening convection. As a result...just mention slight chance
pops for isolated afternoon SHRA/TSRA. The SVR WX potential will
also be low...though cannot completely rule out a strong to SVR
storm. The primary threat with the strongest storms will be damaging
winds...and locally heavy rainfall possible as storms will be slow
moving. Highs this Sat will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s...with
heat index values peaking in the 95 to 103 range this afternoon.
Upper level ridging will increase for Sun...with high pressure
building aloft over the region. As a result...the chances for precip
will become more limited...so have kept only silent pops. Highs will
be a couple deg higher than expected this Sat...with generally upper
80s to upper 90s. Heat index values will also increase...with upper
90s to around 104 during the hottest part of the day. Even hotter
conditions will be seen in the long term period...with heat
advisories possible for next week.
LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
Not a lot has changed versus this time last night as all medium
range models continue to show upper level ridging building over the
middle of the country early in the period. Feature is expected to
strengthen and then dominant through most of the the period before
beginning to break down late Friday and into Saturday.
Center of the upper ridge will be centered just to the west of the
state keeping the area in southerly flow along with a constant
supply of gulf moisture. As the ridge gets established, high
temperatures will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during
the day and only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture
levels, heat indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will
be needed.
Even diurnally driven, garden variety thunderstorm will be tough,
but not impossible, to get going in this environment. However, only
silent pops seem justified at this time.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
253 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Mostly quiet conditions ongoing across the CWA early this morning
after additional isolated/scattered SHRA/TSRA developed during the
evening hrs on Fri. This activity drifted south over time...with
just some light SHRA leftover across far SRN AR. Dry conditions were
observed elsewhere early this morning...with temperatures in the
mid 60s to mid 70s.
Chances for SHRA/TSRA will remain in the forecast through this
evening as additional development is possible during the heating of
the afternoon hrs. The exact location of precip will be somewhat
uncertain...and may be triggered by leftover outflow boundaries from
Fri evening convection. As a result...just mention slight chance
pops for isolated afternoon SHRA/TSRA. The SVR WX potential will
also be low...though cannot completely rule out a strong to SVR
storm. The primary threat with the strongest storms will be damaging
winds...and locally heavy rainfall possible as storms will be slow
moving. Highs this Sat will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s...with
heat index values peaking in the 95 to 103 range this afternoon.
Upper level ridging will increase for Sun...with high pressure
building aloft over the region. As a result...the chances for precip
will become more limited...so have kept only silent pops. Highs will
be a couple deg higher than expected this Sat...with generally upper
80s to upper 90s. Heat index values will also increase...with upper
90s to around 104 during the hottest part of the day. Even hotter
conditions will be seen in the long term period...with heat
advisories possible for next week.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday
Not a lot has changed versus this time last night as all medium
range models continue to show upper level ridging building over the
middle of the country early in the period. Feature is expected to
strengthen and then dominant through most of the the period before
beginning to break down late Friday and into Saturday.
Center of the upper ridge will be centered just to the west of the
state keeping the area in southerly flow along with a constant
supply of gulf moisture. As the ridge gets established, high
temperatures will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during
the day and only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture
levels, heat indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will
be needed.
Even diurnally driven, garden variety thunderstorm will be tough,
but not impossible, to get going in this environment. However, only
silent pops seem justified at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 89 74 94 76 / 20 20 10 0
Camden AR 94 75 96 76 / 30 20 10 0
Harrison AR 88 72 93 73 / 30 20 10 0
Hot Springs AR 92 74 95 76 / 20 20 10 0
Little Rock AR 93 75 96 77 / 20 20 10 0
Monticello AR 93 76 95 76 / 20 20 10 0
Mount Ida AR 92 73 94 74 / 20 20 10 0
Mountain Home AR 89 73 94 73 / 20 20 10 0
Newport AR 90 74 94 75 / 20 20 10 0
Pine Bluff AR 92 75 95 76 / 20 20 10 0
Russellville AR 92 74 96 75 / 20 20 10 0
Searcy AR 92 74 95 75 / 20 20 10 0
Stuttgart AR 92 75 95 76 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...62 / Long Term...56
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms...isolated in central and south
sections...will dissipate early in the taf period. Patchy fog is
expected late tonight into the morning. MVFR conditions are
expected early in the period and with any fog that develops toward
morning...and then VFR from mid morning through the end of the
period. Some isolated SHRA/TSRA could be seen for some sites on
Sat afternoon as well.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
UPDATE...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue this evening in parts
of central and south Arkansas. Flash flooding has occurred with
some of these storms and at least 3.15 inches has fallen at Little
Rock Adams Field. These storms will likely dissipate late this
evening or around midnight. Mostly cloudy skies will continue
overnight and patchy fog will develop in some locations late.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
858 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue this evening in parts
of central and south Arkansas. Flash flooding has occured with
some of these storms and at least 3.15 inches has fallen at Little
Rock Adams Field. These storms will likely dissipate late this
evening or around midnight. Mostly cloudy skies will continue
overnight and patchy fog will develop in some locations late.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the area as a short wave moves through the state. Do not
expect them to be as widespread as yesterday...and they should
dissipate by late evening. Patchy fog is expected late tonight
into the morning. MVFR conditions are expected this evening and
tonight then VFR from mid morning on.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
.Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
858 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue this evening in parts
of central and south Arkansas. Flash flooding has occured with
some of these storms and at least 3.15 inches has fallen at Little
Rock Adams Field. These storms will likely dissipate late this
evening or around midnight. Mostly cloudy skies will continue
overnight and patchy fog will develop in some locations late.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the area as a short wave moves through the state. Do not
expect them to be as widespread as yesterday...and they should
dissipate by late evening. Patchy fog is expected late tonight
into the morning. MVFR conditions are expected this evening and
tonight then VFR from mid morning on.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
.Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
643 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the area as a short wave moves through the state. Do not
expect them to be as widespread as yesterday...and they should
dissipate by late evening. Patchy fog is expected late tonight
into the morning. MVFR conditions are expected this evening and
tonight then VFR from mid morning on.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
..Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...51
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
...Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 89 74 94 / 30 20 10 10
Camden AR 73 93 77 97 / 30 20 0 10
Harrison AR 68 88 71 92 / 20 20 10 10
Hot Springs AR 72 91 76 95 / 30 20 0 10
Little Rock AR 74 92 76 96 / 30 30 10 10
Monticello AR 75 93 76 96 / 30 30 0 10
Mount Ida AR 71 90 74 94 / 20 20 10 10
Mountain Home AR 69 90 72 94 / 20 20 10 10
Newport AR 71 90 75 95 / 30 30 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 74 91 76 95 / 30 30 0 10
Russellville AR 71 91 74 96 / 20 20 10 10
Searcy AR 72 91 74 95 / 30 30 10 10
Stuttgart AR 73 92 75 96 / 40 30 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.AVIATION...
Forecasts will reflect best chances for diurnally enhanced...late
afternoon convection. Expect scattered MVFR conditions due to fog
overnight.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
UPDATE...
Observational data indicate weakening convection...across
central...through northwest portions of the state.
Some immediate clearing is noted behind this activity...and
should allow for some destabilization to support scattered mid to
late afternoon convection.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Observational data indicate weakening convection...across
central...through northwest portions of the state.
Some immediate clearing is noted behind this activity...and
should allow for some destabilization to support scattered mid to
late afternoon convection.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 89 70 89 74 / 40 30 20 10
Camden AR 95 75 96 77 / 40 30 20 10
Harrison AR 87 68 86 71 / 40 30 40 10
Hot Springs AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 30 10
Little Rock AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 40 30 10
Monticello AR 92 75 94 76 / 40 30 20 10
Mount Ida AR 91 73 92 75 / 50 30 40 10
Mountain Home AR 88 69 87 72 / 40 30 40 10
Newport AR 90 71 90 75 / 40 30 20 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 20 10
Russellville AR 91 72 91 74 / 40 30 40 10
Searcy AR 90 71 91 74 / 40 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 73 92 75 / 40 40 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...62 / Long Term...56
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1203 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Most of the precip has moved out of the state very early this
morning...and will generally see dry conditions overnight.
However...some fog will be possible due to the rainfall seen on
Thu evening. Some SHRA/TSRA currently ongoing over portions of
OK...and may push into SWRN AR overnight into Fri morning...but
potential to see impacts at terminals is low. There will remain
chances for SHRA/TSRA for Fri...with VCTS and PROB30 mentioned.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 73 89 70 90 / 50 40 30 20
Camden AR 77 93 75 95 / 50 30 30 40
Harrison AR 69 86 69 87 / 50 40 30 40
Hot Springs AR 75 92 75 92 / 70 40 30 30
Little Rock AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Monticello AR 77 92 75 93 / 70 40 30 40
Mount Ida AR 73 91 72 91 / 70 50 30 30
Mountain Home AR 70 87 70 87 / 50 40 30 30
Newport AR 73 89 71 90 / 50 40 30 20
Pine Bluff AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Russellville AR 74 91 74 91 / 70 50 30 30
Searcy AR 73 90 72 91 / 50 40 30 30
Stuttgart AR 75 91 73 92 / 50 40 30 30
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.AVIATION...
Forecasts will continue to reflect MCS type development...most
likely to affect the forecast area between 14/22 and 15/03z.
Expect scattered areas of MVFR conditions due to fog between 15/06
and 15/15z.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1058 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
UPDATE...
Near term conditions will depend on a number of mesoscale
features. MCV analyzed over west-central Arkansas at 1530z will
continue eastward this afternoon. A decaying outflow boundary is
now located from near Dumas...to near Hot Springs. Instability
analysis indicates a fair amount of convective overturning has
occurred this morning across northeast sections of the state.
Approaching convection...across northern Oklahoma...to southeast
Kansas...will have a favorable environment to reach western
sections of the forecast area by mid afternoon.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
A cluster of SHRA/TSRA is moving south across NRN sections of the
state this morning...with additional isolated to scattered
activity developing across all but SRN sections of the state. The
NRN terminals are seeing MVFR or lower conditions at this
time...which will be story under the more intense convection. Will
see some improvements for these sites later this morning as this
activity drops south. Elsewhere...will see generally scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning into the early afternoon hrs...then a break
in the precip should be seen by mid to late afternoon. This
evening into the overnight period...additional SHRA/TSRA will be
possible....with MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more
intense convection. However...only mention VCTS at this time after
00Z as timing and location are uncertain.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over
portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much
stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and
portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the
activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the
weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over
portions of AR.
The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding
the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity
to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the
HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems
reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the
next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may
remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR
over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to
briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail.
Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN
counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time.
While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar
imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and
SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this
morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than
the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential
over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN
counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be
seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this
morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this
outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of
the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large
hail.
Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the
precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a
new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late
tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen
with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX
threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this
overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may
vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the
Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be
seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs
of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl
pass acrs the region.
For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story.
Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading
into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized
convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s...
with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl
likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the
FA.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
632 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
Isentropic lift on the 310-320 K surfaces should begin to increase
in the next few hours over central KS. Expect that scattered showers
and storms will develop over central KS and move to the east
northeast through the late morning hours. The NAM is the aggressive
with keeping the lift across the forecast area through the early
afternoon. Consensus is that the instability this morning will be
around 1000-2000 j/kg and given the convection will be elevated the
shear will be limited. Therefore expect that these storms will stay
below severe limits. All of this is in to response of a weak front
stretched across central KS. A surface low pressure will deepen over
northeast CO later today, which will lift the front into southwest
NE. Soundings show that an elevated mix layer builds over the area
this afternoon, which should prevent any surface based convection.
Current water vapor shows an on going MCS in southeast MT supported
by a mid level shortwave. This wave will track over the northern
plains later today, and should initiate convection in SD, while
additional development is possible near the surface low pressure in
western NE. These clusters of storms could develop into several MCSs
that will move east southeastward during the evening hours. The low
level jet is forecasted to increase during this time frame, and may
support an MCS to move into portions of northeast KS, and or may
initiate additional convection over any existing cold pools across
eastern NE. There will be plenty of instability across the forecast
area, and sufficient shear needed to sustain a balanced cold pool
with the environment. As of now the most most likely track for an
MCS will be eastern NE and western IA. Any MCS will pose a risk for
damaging wind especially for areas along and north of I-70 through
the overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
Frontal boundary sagging southward out of the northern plains into
western Kansas by late Sunday afternoon slows to a near stop through
the overnight hours into early Monday. Stronger flow to the north
and overnight LLJ also focus better chances north of the area late
Sunday night into early Monday. Initial impacts on temperatures
will be for a warm boost on Sunday as the mid level thermal ridge
ahead of the front rises into northeast Kansas, and have highs
from the lower 90s far northeast to near 102 out in central
Kansas, with overnight lows holding generally in the low 70s west
to middle 70s east. Could get a break with some cool outflow from
storms to the northeast. Have only kept low PoPs for early Sunday
and again in the overnight hours as think most storms will stay
north and east. Surface high advances farther south and east into
Monday, as upper flow takes a shift to the west northwest. This
could give one last day in the low to middle 90s before
temperatures ramp up for the week. Some models generating very
light QPF for Monday, but outside the boundary to focus on, not
seeing a strong source of lift and have just kept a slight chance
near or north of the front on Monday.
Northeasterly return of the 850mb front brings warm advection over
eastern Kansas Monday night, and have slight to chance for precip
mainly north of I70, pivoting over the eastern counties through
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures rise out west back to upper 90s,
spreading into the eastern counties by Wednesday afternoon. Many
locations expected to see the century mark for Thursday and Friday
as the center of the upper high shifts over southern Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
VFR conditions expected most of the taf period. There is a slight
chance for isolated showers and storms through the morning and
early afternoon. Due to low confidence and isolated coverage did
not include in the taf. Low level wind shear is likely tonight
across all of the taf sites.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Sanders
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
629 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
A large convective complex continues to push across SW OK at this
time, with most of the low level moisture transport feeding this
complex. Latest RAP does show some weak moisture transport across
nrn OK trying to push into South Central KS by around sunrise. This
could lead to a few hit-or-miss showers/storms for areas over South
Central KS early this morning, with this chance slowly shifting
slowly to the east over the Flint Hills as the morning progresses.
Most of the areas west of I-135 will be characterized by warming mid
level temps, which will effectively cap off any convective chances
for the afternoon/evening hours. Expect this to be the last "cool"
day with seasonal max temps around 90.
The warm advection will continue across the plains into the evening/
overnight hours, with most of the 850-700h moisture transport
expected to push north of the area into Neb. Think some severe
convection will develop along the dryline expected to located over
W/SW Neb and expect this convection will evolve into an eastward
moving complex of storms (MCS) late this evening/overnight, as
moisture transport increases and veers to the NE, keeping most of
the convection well to the north-northeast of the forecast area.
The warm advection looks to continue for Sunday, with warm 850h
temps, with critical 1000-850h thickness values suggesting max temps
rising into the upper 90s for most areas and to near 100 in Central
KS. Expect most locations to remain dry on Sunday as a warm elevated
mixed layer spreads over the area. The only concern will be whether
tonight`s late night MCS can throw out an outflow boundary that may
be located across Central KS (along I-70) for Sun afternoon/evening.
Latest model runs suggest some sort of boundary will be located
across portions of north Central KS, either from an outflow or a
weak surface trough as the mid level ridge builds across the area.
As the temps rise Sun afternoon, could see areas along the boundary
reach their convective temp, but most locations will remain capped.
So could see a diurnally driven isolated storm or two develop along
this boundary for Sunday afternoon/evening.
Ketcham
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
Expect the subtropical ridge to continue to build across
the plains for the beginning of the week. The warming mid level
temps will lead to a strong cap building across the area with dry
conditions with surface temps climbing into the upper 90s for Mon
through Thu, with the warmest days expected to be Thu/Fri. Will also
see humid conditions across the area too, which may lead to heat
advisories being posted across the region for the middle of the work
week. The higher surface dewpoint air will probably keep max temps
in the upper 90s as heating goes to burning off the higher dewpoint
air, but expect heat index values of 100-105 by the Mon-Thu.
Ketcham
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
a few areas of patchy IFR and MVFR ceilings impacted terminals
across central Kansas early this morning. These ceilings are
expected to mix out later this morning and should be quite short
lived. For now only included brief mentions of these low ceilings
at KGBD, where GOES Fog and Low Stratus products show the best
coverage. Later this morning, expect winds to come around to the
south-southeast at all terminals. As we progress through the
morning hours winds will become gusty, especially at terminals in
central and south central Kansas, as the pressure gradient
strengthens across the region and deep mixing develops. Tonight as
the pressure gradient holds strong and the low-level jet develops
across the region, expect the gusty winds to linger through the
overnight hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 91 74 98 75 / 20 10 0 0
Hutchinson 90 73 98 74 / 20 10 10 10
Newton 90 73 97 73 / 20 10 0 10
ElDorado 90 73 96 74 / 20 10 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 91 74 96 75 / 20 10 0 0
Russell 92 73 100 72 / 10 10 10 20
Great Bend 92 73 101 73 / 10 10 10 20
Salina 92 74 101 74 / 20 10 10 20
McPherson 90 73 97 73 / 20 10 10 10
Coffeyville 90 74 94 75 / 20 10 0 0
Chanute 90 73 94 74 / 20 10 0 10
Iola 89 73 94 74 / 20 10 10 10
Parsons-KPPF 89 73 93 74 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...JMR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
352 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will provide scattered mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. A slight
decrease in daily coverage of showers and thunderstorms may then
occur Thursday into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
generally south of a Bowie-Benson-Tubac line at this time. Other
isolated showers/tstms were also ongoing across the White Mountains.
Rain amounts from alert gauges in central/eastern Santa Cruz County
and southwest Cochise County have yielded just a few hundredths of
an inch. Meanwhile, mostly clear skies prevailed elsewhere across
southeast Arizona at mid-afternoon.
The 16/12Z Univ. of AZ WRF-NAM/GFS were fairly similar with
depicting the best chance of measurable rainfall this evening to
occur south-to-southeast of Tucson. These solutions then depicted
what appears to be potentially a remnant MCV to be near the Tucson
metro area (just east of Tucson via the NAM; over Santa Cruz County
south of Tucson via the GFS) around daybreak Sunday. This scenario
definitely seems plausible given the darkening feature as per water
vapor imagery moving westward into east-central Sonora Mexico at
this time.
For this forecast issuance, have leaned toward a scenario for this
evening that suggests the bulk of the ongoing showers/tstms will
gradually decrease in coveage/intensity. Have then opted for
a slight chance of showers across much of the area late tonight. If
a remnant MCV exists early Sunday morning, the potential exists that
Sunday may be the proverbial down-day regarding precip chances as
the system moves north of the area.
However, given a somewhat low confidence in this scenario, have
essentially made only very minor adjustments to the inherited PoPs
Sunday and during much of the upcoming week. Thus, have continued
with scattered showers/tstms across much of the area Sunday
afternoon/evening, and similar coverage of showers/tstms Monday
through Wednesday during the afternoon hours. A slight chance of
showers/tstms exists during the late night/early morning hours.
Thereafter, slightly less daily coverage of showers/tstms should
exist Thursday into Saturday.
Have noted fairly large discrepancies between the operational 16/12Z
GFS/ECMWF during the next 7-day forecast period. For instance and in
general, the ECMWF was markedly wetter versus the GFS during
the afternoon/evening hours, whereas the GFS was markedly wetter
versus the ECMWF during the nighttime/early morning hours. There
were several nighttime periods that the ECMWF depicted precip-free
conditions area-wide, while the GFS suggested isolated to perhaps
scattered coverage of showers/tstms for any given nighttime period.
At any rate, daytime temps Sun-Wed will be quite close to seasonal
normals followed by a gradual warming trend Thur-Sat.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/00Z.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA this evening mainly south-to-southeast of KTUS,
then isolated -SHRA across the area late tonight into Sunday morning.
Expect scattered -TSRA/-SHRA to return Sunday afternoon. Brief wind
gusts to 45 kts and MVFR conditions may occur with stronger TSRA.
Surface wind will generally be variable in direction less than 12
kts thru the period. However, surface wind east of KTUS this evening
and Sunday afternoon will be nwly at 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Adequate moisture will lead to scattered mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms through at least Wednesday. A
slight decrease in daily coverage may then occur starting Thursday
and continuing into next weekend. Outside of thunderstorm winds,
expect typical diurnal 20-ft wind patterns. However, gusty northwest
winds should occur Sunday and Monday across the Upper Gila River
Valley including Safford.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
302 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A dry trough passing through the western states will
bring stronger winds to northern Arizona today. Critical fire
weather conditions are expected across northwestern Coconino
County today. A Monsoon moisture surge continues to move up into
Arizona from Mexico with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms from Sunday into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A dry low pressure trough passing through the
western states will bring stronger winds to northern Arizona.
Stronger winds along with low relative humidity will produce
critical fire weather conditions for northwestern Coconino County.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 8pm MST today for
that area. Elsewhere only isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible over the White Mountains region.
The subtropical high has moved into a good position to bring
additional Monsoon moisture from Mexico northward into Arizona. A
combination of both GOES Satellite precipitable water imagery and
weather model data show a continued northward surge of moisture
into Arizona. By Sunday afternoon 1 inch of precipitable water
will reach the Utah border heralding a return to a wetter Monsoon
weather pattern through the upcoming work week. Expect fair chances
for showers and storms starting on Sunday with the best chances
for precipitation across the mountain areas of the Mogollon Rim
especially over the White Mountains region.
Monday through Wednesday...Continued moisture will produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. An upper level
trough identified in the upper level 200-300mb vorticity pattern
may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity across northern
Arizona during the Tuesday overnight period. Atmospheric
conditions may also favor the potential for Mesoscale Convective
System of thunderstorms developing over Southeastern Arizona on
Monday Night. This feature may help drive higher moisture amounts
further northward.
In the extended forecast outlook from Thursday onward we remain in
a favorable pattern for showers and thunderstorms through Friday.
By Saturday the upper level high moves westward directly over
Arizona and the downward moving air may begin to limit some of
our convective activity by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. Scattered thunderstorms will continue near St. Johns
(KSJN) and Springerville (KJTC) this afternoon, then taper off
during the early evening. Surface winds southwesterly 15-25 knots
through 02z. Chances for thunderstorms will increase along the
Mogollon Rim Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions will continue over
northwestern Coconino county this afternoon. High based
thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon with isolated coverage
along the Mogollon Rim and White mountains. Chances for wetting
precipitation are low for all areas except the White mountains.
Monday through Wednesday...Deeper moisture may slowly increase
across northern Arizona, with showers and thunderstorms chances each
day. Winds may become erratic and gusty near thunderstorms.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ104-106-107.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...TM
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
125 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The very warm and dry conditions of late will come to an end
beginning Sunday as more significant monsoon moisture returns north
from Mexico. Abundant moisture next week will increase the chance of
showers and thunderstorms, mostly in Arizona, along with slightly
cooler temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Saturday...
The stage is set for significant amounts of monsoon moisture to
finally return north into AZ from Mexico later tonight, Sunday,
Monday, and continue the remainder of the week.
Morning weather balloon soundings and radar VAD wind profiles showed
the northern edge of the monsoon moisture boundary was noted from
Tucson west to Yuma. Last night low level moisture surged north
through the lower Colorado River Valley at Yuma as gusty southerly
winds sent surface dewpoints rocketing to near 70 deg F, including
the adjacent areas of Imperial and Blythe CA. Gusty south winds
through the lower Colorado River Valley were mechanically generated
from northward moving outflows produced by massive overnight
convection in northwest Mexico. Afternoon surface dewpoints along
and adjacent to the lower Colorado River Valley have settled into
the mid 60s with day time heating and mixing.
Otherwise models forecast the flow aloft at all levels to turn more
southerly from Mexico, again importing more moisture to get this
monsoon started again. Additionally, Saturday afternoon water vapor
satellite imagery showed numerous disturbances of various scales,
and deformation zones across all of Mexico and over the offshore
Pacific. Movement of these features are something to watch and
anticipate for next week, all of which have the potential to
generate widespread convective outbreaks. In the short term through
Monday we don`t see any significant disturbances moving into
southwest and south central AZ, portions of our forecast area,
although the GFS has one modeled for Tuesday coming out of the
Mexican state of Chihuahua.
For late tonight and early Sunday, more thunderstorms activity is
expected just south of the Mexican border. Models forecast a
significant amount of convective debris clouds to move north into
AZ, thick enough to develop considerable virga and perhaps light
showers from the Colorado River Valley east to Phoenix. Therefore a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms are forecast late tonight
and Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon and evening will be a mostly
cloudy and relatively cool over southwest and south central AZ, with
a slight chance of showers redeveloping later in the day and evening.
From Monday on, significant monsoon moisture will be in place for
most of next week. We will treat this period as a low grade monsoon
period, meaning a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, with a
better chance in the mountains, until we can target a significant
mid/upper level disturbance for more meaningful storm activity.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Generally a quiet day over the lower deserts while expecting some
southeast Arizona high terrain storms. These will likely produce at
least some overnight clouds for the Phoenix area and maybe a dying
outflow or two into the lower deserts this evening. Winds to favor
typical diurnal tendencies with some afternoon/evening gustiness
especially at KPHX. Unless outflows move in from the southeast this
evening expect winds to stay west well past midnight at KPHX.
A more active monsoon storm day is likely on Sunday with even a
slight chance of some lower desert storm activity. There is a better
chance of some outflow winds and possibly some dust affecting the
area terminals Sunday evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds to favor the southeast most of today and tonight at KIPL with
a chance for winds to return to the southwest for a few hours this
evening. Winds will favor the south next 24 hours at KBLH with off
and on gustiness, especially this afternoon. Peak gusts to reach
25kt at times. Scattered to broken mainly high level debris clouds
to affect the terminals next 24 hours as well with bases mostly
above 15k feet.
Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Higher monsoon moisture values will overall affect much of the area
during the period. This will bring a day to day chance of mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher terrain east and
southeast of Phoenix with slight chances also over portions the
south-central Arizona deserts. Thunderstorms activity will likely
also promote strong outflow winds into the lower deserts.
Temperatures through the period will be near normals as the moisture
levels shouldn`t be high enough to dramatically affect temperatures.
Minimum relative humidities will fall in between a 15 to 25 percent
range, highest from Phoenix east into southern Gila County.
Afternoon southwest winds 10 to 15 mph each day with periodic gusts
to 20 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Vasquez
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
125 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
The very warm and dry conditions of late will come to an end
beginning Sunday as more significant monsoon moisture returns north
from Mexico. Abundant moisture next week will increase the chance of
showers and thunderstorms, mostly in Arizona, along with slightly
cooler temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Saturday...
The stage is set for significant amounts of monsoon moisture to
finally return north into AZ from Mexico later tonight, Sunday,
Monday, and continue the remainder of the week.
Morning weather balloon soundings and radar VAD wind profiles showed
the northern edge of the monsoon moisture boundary was noted from
Tucson west to Yuma. Last night low level moisture surged north
through the lower Colorado River Valley at Yuma as gusty southerly
winds sent surface dewpoints rocketing to near 70 deg F, including
the adjacent areas of Imperial and Blythe CA. Gusty south winds
through the lower Colorado River Valley were mechanically generated
from northward moving outflows produced by massive overnight
convection in northwest Mexico. Afternoon surface dewpoints along
and adjacent to the lower Colorado River Valley have settled into
the mid 60s with day time heating and mixing.
Otherwise models forecast the flow aloft at all levels to turn more
southerly from Mexico, again importing more moisture to get this
monsoon started again. Additionally, Saturday afternoon water vapor
satellite imagery showed numerous disturbances of various scales,
and deformation zones across all of Mexico and over the offshore
Pacific. Movement of these features are something to watch and
anticipate for next week, all of which have the potential to
generate widespread convective outbreaks. In the short term through
Monday we don`t see any significant disturbances moving into
southwest and south central AZ, portions of our forecast area,
although the GFS has one modeled for Tuesday coming out of the
Mexican state of Chihuahua.
For late tonight and early Sunday, more thunderstorms activity is
expected just south of the Mexican border. Models forecast a
significant amount of convective debris clouds to move north into
AZ, thick enough to develop considerable virga and perhaps light
showers from the Colorado River Valley east to Phoenix. Therefore a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms are forecast late tonight
and Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon and evening will be a mostly
cloudy and relatively cool over southwest and south central AZ, with
a slight chance of showers redeveloping later in the day and evening.
From Monday on, significant monsoon moisture will be in place for
most of next week. We will treat this period as a low grade monsoon
period, meaning a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, with a
better chance in the mountains, until we can target a significant
mid/upper level disturbance for more meaningful storm activity.
&&
.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona Including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Generally a quiet day over the lower deserts while expecting some
southeast Arizona high terrain storms. These will likely produce at
least some overnight clouds for the Phoenix area and maybe a dying
outflow or two into the lower deserts this evening. Winds to favor
typical diurnal tendencies with some afternoon/evening gustiness
especially at KPHX. Unless outflows move in from the southeast this
evening expect winds to stay west well past midnight at KPHX.
A more active monsoon storm day is likely on Sunday with even a
slight chance of some lower desert storm activity. There is a better
chance of some outflow winds and possibly some dust affecting the
area terminals Sunday evening.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds to favor the southeast most of today and tonight at KIPL with
a chance for winds to return to the southwest for a few hours this
evening. Winds will favor the south next 24 hours at KBLH with off
and on gustiness, especially this afternoon. Peak gusts to reach
25kt at times. Scattered to broken mainly high level debris clouds
to affect the terminals next 24 hours as well with bases mostly
above 15k feet.
Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Higher monsoon moisture values will overall affect much of the area
during the period. This will bring a day to day chance of mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher terrain east and
southeast of Phoenix with slight chances also over portions the
south-central Arizona deserts. Thunderstorms activity will likely
also promote strong outflow winds into the lower deserts.
Temperatures through the period will be near normals as the moisture
levels shouldn`t be high enough to dramatically affect temperatures.
Minimum relative humidities will fall in between a 15 to 25 percent
range, highest from Phoenix east into southern Gila County.
Afternoon southwest winds 10 to 15 mph each day with periodic gusts
to 20 mph.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix
DISCUSSION...Vasquez
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
936 AM MST SAT JUL 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A dry trough passing through the western states will
bring stronger winds to northern Arizona today. Critical fire
weather conditions are expected across northwestern Coconino
County today. A Monsoon moisture surge continues to move up into
Arizona from Mexico with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms from Sunday into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A dry trough passing through the west will bring
stronger winds to northern Arizona today especially across
northwestern Coconino County where critical fire weather
conditions are forecast. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect
until 8pm MST for this area.
We continue to see Monsoon moisture surge northward into Arizona
from Mexico. Satellite precipitable water amounts in southern
Yavapai County are now up to 1 inch. The latest American GFS
weather model forecasts push this deeper moisture all the way to
the Utah border by Sunday afternoon. Higher moisture amounts will
lead to a return of showers and thunderstorms through the week.
The main threats will be lightning caused fire starts and the
potential for localized flash flooding over recent wildfire scars.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /325 AM MST/...
For today...The passing weather disturbance will produce windy
conditions across northwest Arizona. The wind will combine with
hot and dry conditions to produce a heightened fire weather
threat, especially northwest Arizona. As a result, a Red Flag
Warning is in effect today for much of northwest Arizona. Enough
moisture will begin to slip in from the south for a slight chance
of high based thunderstorms over the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains region.
On Sunday...Moisture will continue to increase across all of
Arizona as high pressure shifts eastward and southerly flow
develops. Still not a huge push of moisture on Sunday so mainly
high based thunderstorms with gusty winds and some surprise cloud-
to-ground lightning strikes.
The remainder of the week...A complicated setting develops.
Moisture will continue to creep in from the south but will be very
dependent on the level of thunderstorm activity over northwest
Mexico. At this time conditions do not look favorable for the
development of a large thunderstorm complex over Mexico which is
critical for significant moisture surges. We`ll be keeping a close
eye on this one. Other issues to consider, models are consistently
showing somewhat cloudy conditions day and night which normally
puts a damper on convective activity. Also, models show intrusions
of drier low level air into Arizona from over the eastern Pacific
each afternoon. The net result is generally low grade monsoon
activity with the best chance for wetter storms extending from the
White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim to the Chuska Mountains.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. Isolated high based thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon and evening along and southeast of a line from Flagstaff
to Kayenta. Surface winds southwesterly 15-25 knots between 16z-02z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions will develop in
northwestern Coconino county this afternoon. High based
thunderstorms are expected this weekend with isolated coverage along
the Mogollon rim and White mountains. Chances for wetting
precipitation are low for all areas except the White mountains.
Monday through Wednesday...Deeper moisture may slowly increase
across northern Arizona, with showers and thunderstorms chances each
day. Winds may become erratic and gusty near thunderstorms.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening
FOR AZZ104-106-107.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Bohlin/McCollum
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...DL
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
855 AM MST SAT JUL 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening mainly south of Tucson. Adequate moisture will
then provide periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms across
much of the area during the upcoming week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/visible satellite imagery depicted mostly clear
skies to partly cloudy skies across southeast Arizona at this time.
The bulk of this mainly high-level convective debris cloudiness was
east-to-south of Tucson. Visible satellite imagery also depicted at
least two distinct MCV`s moving westward across central Sonora
Mexico. Occasional lightning strikes were detected over the northern
Gulf of California and northwest Sonora.
Meanwhile, dewpoints at lower elevations across this forecast area
valid 15Z were in the lower-mid 50s, and these temps were generally
unchanged versus 24 hours ago. However, KSAD dewpoint was 12 degs
higher versus this time Friday. Surface temps valid 15Z were 2-5
degs cooler versus 24 hours ago. 16/12Z KTWC sounding total precip
water value of 1.36 inches was one quarter of an inch higher versus
24 hours ago. Modest instability also existed, with MUCAPE of 633
J/kg and Lifted Index of minus 4. 16/12Z upper air plots depicted a
594 dm high centered over west central New Mexico, northwest of KEPZ
and southwest of KABQ. The flow aloft across southeast Arizona was
mostly wly/swly, though easterly flow prevailed south of the area.
16/12Z Univ. of AZ WRF-NAM was quite similar to the 16/06Z version,
and was similar to a couple of HRRR solutions with the initiation
and subsequent development of showers/tstms mainly across Santa Cruz/
southern/eastern Cochise Counties early this afternoon and
continuing into this evening. The favored timing for shower/tstm
development appears to be 18Z-20Z, and the favored locales appear to
be the Patagonia/Huachuca/Chiricahua Mountains.
This scenario seems reasonable as these locales, especially the
Patagonia/Huachuca Mountains, are under the deformation axis aloft
as per the 16/12Z upper air plot analysis. The very light mid-level
steering flow suggests minimal storm motions, and outflows late
this afternoon and evening will be the main impetus for further
shower/thunderstorm development. Isolated showers and perhaps
thunderstorms may very well continue late tonight as suggested via
the 16/09Z SREF.
At any rate, the official forecast handles the above scenario quite
well, with precip-free conditions thru 18Z, then chance-category PoPs
south-to-southeast of Tucson this afternoon. A slight chance of
showers/tstms exists this afternoon further north including Tucson,
Mt. Graham, and the White Mountains. May increase PoPs for this
evening, but will defer this notion to later today after receipt of
additional 16/12Z guidance, and gauging the evolution of showers/
tstms as well.
Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/18Z.
Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA will occur this afternoon and
evening mainly from KTUS vicinity southward and southeastward to the
International border. The KOLS and KDUG terminals will be especially
susceptible to these showers/thunderstorms this afternoon/ evening.
Brief wind gusts to 45 kts and MVFR conditions due to reduced
visibilities may occur with stronger TSRA. Isolated mainly -SHRA
should prevail late tonight into Sunday morning. Surface wind into
early this evening will be variable in direction mainly less than 12
kts. However, surface wind at KSAD will be nwly at 10-20 kts. Surface
wind tonight into Sunday morning will be sely/sly at 10-15 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture will continue to increase across the area
this weekend. The best storm chances will remain south of Tuscon
today, with coverage overspreading much of southeast Arizona Sunday
through Wednesday. A slight downturn in rain chances may occur late
in the week. Outside of thunderstorm winds, expect typical diurnal
20-ft wind patterns into late next week. Stronger gusts are possible
through the Gila River Valley when winds are northwesterly in
direction.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /245 AM MST/...Decaying Sonoran thunderstorm
complexes has pushed debris clouds across mostly the southern half of
the forecast area. At the surface, outflow from these storms has
pushed dewpoints into the mid 50s to near 60 degrees across most of
the area. PW values across the area this morning ranged from 0.75" to
1.25" with higher values south of the border. Areal coverage of
storms should be further north today with best chances along the
international border, especially between Bisbee and San Miguel.
Plenty of debris cloud cover overnight with isolated light showers
possible.
Deeper southeasterly flow aloft Sunday through the first half of
next week will bring an active monsoon pattern to the area. Daily
highs mostly around normal but will show daily fluctuations due to
previous nights convective activity and debris cloudiness.
A reduction in areal coverage of thunderstorms is likely late next
week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
At 20Z, WV imagery shows a complex of storms off over the Dakotas
moving east/southeast into the Upper MS Valley. Meanwhile a another
upper level low pressure system and associated shortwave continues
to work into eastern MT. Further south, a plume of mid to upper
level moisture can be seen streaming through the Central Rockies
into Nebraska. Subtle shortwaves continue to work through this
region. At the surface, an area of low pressure is over
northeastern CO vicinity with a warm boundary stretched along and
near the KS/NE border.
Most of the severe activity today should remain north of the outlook
area and be associated with the two northern systems. However, there
is a small chance that storms develop this afternoon and evening
over northeastern CO and southwestern NE before organizing into a
small MCS that could potentially propagate into north central and
northeastern KS mainly along the KS/NE border late tonight into
early Sunday morning. A LLJ is expected to develop late this
evening and veer into the area by early morning. This should help
provide instability and convergence needed to keep at least some
storms going as they move into the area. The likely threat when
they arrive would be some strong gusty winds.
For the day Sunday, clearing should continue over northern areas of
the CWA. As heights continue to rise throughout the day, do expect
that some areas could begin to approach heat advisory levels with
high temps over northeast Kansas pushing into upper 90s and some
100s over southwestern counties into north central Kansas. Headline
may need to be issued by overnight shift but will hold for now.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
Sunday Night through Tuesday...
Frontal boundary is expected to move into north central and
northeast Kansas Sunday night. Low level jet increases through the
evening then veers to near westerly by monday morning. There is not
much in the way of convergence along the front across northeast
Kansas and looks to focus to the northeast of the forecast area.
Therefore will leave small pops across the northern CWA north of
Interstate 70 Sunday night into Monday morning. Have kept small pops
going for areas north of Interstate 70 with the northeast return of
the frontal boundary Monday night into Tuesday morning. Lows Sunday
night will be in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures warm back into the
upper 90s near central Kansas on Monday with lower 90s near the
Nebraska border. Heat indices on Monday look to be in the 98 to 104
degree range. By Tuesday expect temperatures to warm into the mid
and upper 90s once again with afternoon heat indices in the 100 to
103 degree range.
Tuesday Night through Saturday...
Mid-level ridging will be in place across the Central Plains for the
majority of the period. Good agreement amongst the EC and GFS with
the stout ridge overhead through Thursday. High temperatures will
soar into the middle 90s to perhaps 100 degrees Tuesday through
Thursday. Plentiful boundary layer moisture will contribute to upper
60 to lower 70 degree dewpoints. This combination of heat and
humidity will result in heat indicies in the 100 to 110 degree range
Tuesday through Thursday. These very hot and humid conditions may
continue into the weekend, however model agreement diverges for
Friday and Saturday. Both models have a trough across the Northern
Plains, however it`s effects on the forecast area differ. The GFS
shifts the ridge axis across the Rockies and sweeps a weak cold
front through the area. While the EC, keeps the frontal boundary
well north of the area, allowing the heat wave to continue.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
For the 18Z TAFs, chances of showers or storms making it into the
terminals overnight remains too low to mention. The higher impact
to aviation likely coming in the form of an increasing LLJ between
07-14Z time frame which should veer over the region from the
southwest up to the mid 40kt range. Otherwise, aviation impacts
seem small for the time frame.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Baerg/53
AVIATION...Drake
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
229 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
Energy from a Northern Intermountain region upper trough will
weaken tonight through Sunday, with some of it being absorbed by
an upper trough swinging southeast through Manitoba into the Great
Lakes. A lee trough will strengthen some through this evening. A
weak cold front will then progress southeastward into the Central
Plains Sunday, stalling late Sunday into monday from southern Iowa
southwestward into northwestern Kansas.
Scattered storms should initiate near the lee trough axis by early
this evening from far western Nebraska into northeast Colorado, with
an eastward propagation overnight fed by a southerly 50 knot low-
level jet. This activity should occur mainly just north of the
warmest mid-level temperatures with storm chances mainly north of
Interstate 70 tonight. A low-level thermal ridge axis and mixing
will intensify northeastward across southwest into north-central
portions of Kansas Sunday ahead of the stalled front. This
combined with sunshine will allow highs to climb into the mid 90s
in southeast KS to around 100 degrees in the central part of the
state. Storms may develop over the central High Plains late
Sunday, moving eastward Sunday night to the north of the stalled
front. Once again, most or all of this convection should be
confined to near and north of Interstate 70 in central Kansas.
A mid-upper high will build over the south-central Plains region
Monday into Tuesday, with the stalled front lifting gradually north
of Kansas. This will result in mostly clear skies with hot weather
both days. Peak afternoon heat indices are projected in the 100-105
degree range Sunday through Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
A 597-598 dam upper high center is progged to remain over the south-
central Plains during this extended forecast period. This will make
heat the main forecast concern, with daily highs from the mid 90s to
102 degrees (warmest central/south-central KS). Depending on how
much surface dewpoints can mix out, heat headlines are a
possibility. Do not see any good, consistent model signals to
insert rain chances into the forecast at this juncture.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
VFR conditions will dominate the region this afternoon. Winds
will be out of the South and gusty this afternoon. Wind will die
down some overnight but winds aloft will be a little higher. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will dominate overnight and tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 74 98 75 97 / 10 0 10 10
Hutchinson 73 99 74 97 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 73 97 73 96 / 10 10 10 10
ElDorado 73 96 74 95 / 10 0 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 74 96 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
Russell 73 100 72 96 / 10 10 20 20
Great Bend 73 101 73 98 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 74 101 74 97 / 10 10 10 10
McPherson 73 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
Coffeyville 74 94 75 95 / 10 0 0 0
Chanute 73 94 74 94 / 10 0 10 10
Iola 73 94 74 94 / 10 10 10 10
Parsons-KPPF 73 93 74 94 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ELM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
229 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
Energy from a Northern Intermountain region upper trough will
weaken tonight through Sunday, with some of it being absorbed by
an upper trough swinging southeast through Manitoba into the Great
Lakes. A lee trough will strengthen some through this evening. A
weak cold front will then progress southeastward into the Central
Plains Sunday, stalling late Sunday into monday from southern Iowa
southwestward into northwestern Kansas.
Scattered storms should initiate near the lee trough axis by early
this evening from far western Nebraska into northeast Colorado, with
an eastward propagation overnight fed by a southerly 50 knot low-
level jet. This activity should occur mainly just north of the
warmest mid-level temperatures with storm chances mainly north of
Interstate 70 tonight. A low-level thermal ridge axis and mixing
will intensify northeastward across southwest into north-central
portions of Kansas Sunday ahead of the stalled front. This
combined with sunshine will allow highs to climb into the mid 90s
in southeast KS to around 100 degrees in the central part of the
state. Storms may develop over the central High Plains late
Sunday, moving eastward Sunday night to the north of the stalled
front. Once again, most or all of this convection should be
confined to near and north of Interstate 70 in central Kansas.
A mid-upper high will build over the south-central Plains region
Monday into Tuesday, with the stalled front lifting gradually north
of Kansas. This will result in mostly clear skies with hot weather
both days. Peak afternoon heat indices are projected in the 100-105
degree range Sunday through Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
A 597-598 dam upper high center is progged to remain over the south-
central Plains during this extended forecast period. This will make
heat the main forecast concern, with daily highs from the mid 90s to
102 degrees (warmest central/south-central KS). Depending on how
much surface dewpoints can mix out, heat headlines are a
possibility. Do not see any good, consistent model signals to
insert rain chances into the forecast at this juncture.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
VFR conditions will dominate the region this afternoon. Winds
will be out of the South and gusty this afternoon. Wind will die
down some overnight but winds aloft will be a little higher. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will dominate overnight and tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 74 98 75 97 / 10 0 10 10
Hutchinson 73 99 74 97 / 10 10 10 10
Newton 73 97 73 96 / 10 10 10 10
ElDorado 73 96 74 95 / 10 0 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 74 96 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
Russell 73 100 72 96 / 10 10 20 20
Great Bend 73 101 73 98 / 10 10 10 10
Salina 74 101 74 97 / 10 10 10 10
McPherson 73 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
Coffeyville 74 94 75 95 / 10 0 0 0
Chanute 73 94 74 94 / 10 0 10 10
Iola 73 94 74 94 / 10 10 10 10
Parsons-KPPF 73 93 74 94 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ELM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
215 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
...Updated Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
Much quieter weather pattern unfolding for SW Kansas. A virtually
clear sky early this afternoon. S/SE winds will become strong and
gusty this afternoon, in response to a 994 mb surface low near
Limon, Colorado and about a 10 mb surface pressure gradient
between Syracuse and Kiowa. Some gusts of 30-35 mph will be noted.
12z NAM and HRRR model runs, which did an excellent job
forecasting last night`s thunderstorms, both keep tonight`s
expected MCS activity mainly north of SW Kansas, across NW Kansas
into Nebraska. Kept a slight chance of convection for northern
Ellis county through tonight, as that zone will be closest to the
Nebraska convection, but am not expecting much. A strong
pronounced low level jet is progged by all models to develop after
sunset, with 850 mb winds as high as 60 kts. As such, south winds
will remain quite elevated all night. This, in turn, will keep
temperatures quite elevated, with most locales only falling to the
lower 70s Sunday morning.
Sunday...Mostly sunny and hot. Strong upper high begins to build
strongly into the plains, with 500 mb heights rising sharply from
590 dm Saturday, to 594 dm Sunday afternoon. Afternoon
temperatures will be hotter in response, but not as hot as some
guidance indicates. Lack of downslope, the upper high organizing
east of SW KS near the Ozarks, and most importantly, lush
vegetation and standing water from recent rainfall...will all slow
down the heating trend. GFS/MAV/MEX guidance in the 100s is too
hot for Sunday. Forecasted upper 90s for most zones, and wouldn`t
be surprised if I am still several degrees too warm. NAM/ECMWF
both suggest perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the far W/NW
zones late Sunday afternoon, but with weak shear and warming
temperatures aloft, am not expecting much.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
An extended stretch of typical summer weather...hot and dry...
will begin on Monday, and persist into next weekend. Little if any
day-to-day variation expected. Hot upper anticyclone establishes
near the Ozarks on Monday, and wallows around the southern plains,
slowly inching westward, ending up as a 598 dm upper high over SW
KS by Saturday. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to upper
90s for most locales through Wednesday. Starting about Thursday,
the topsoil will have dried enough, and the subsidence from the
upper ridge will have gotten close enough, to allow for widespread
triple digit heat. Morning low temperatures will hold in the low
to mid 70s for all locations. Rain/thunderstorm chances in this
pattern are remote, but not completely zero. Medium range models
suggest an isolated storm may clip the far W/NW zones during the
peak heating hours, farthest from the high pressure ridge`s
influence. Purposely kept all pop grids at slight chance (<25%)
with no significant rainfall expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
Airports expected to remain free of thunderstorms through this
evening. Perhaps an isolated -TSRA west of GCK this afternoon, and
TSRA appear likely north of HYS tonight, but kept any mention of
convection out of the 18z TAFs. Strong S/SE winds will impact
aviation operations this afternoon, gusting over 30 kts at times,
in response to 994 mb surface low near Limon Colorado. A strong
pronounced low level jet is forecasted tonight, with NAM
forecasting 850 mb winds near 60 kts. Expect southerly winds to
remain elevated overnight, along with widespread low level wind
shear.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 74 98 70 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 95 71 97 69 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 97 71 100 71 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 93 72 101 71 / 10 0 10 10
HYS 91 72 97 71 / 10 20 10 20
P28 95 75 100 73 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
Isentropic lift on the 310-320 K surfaces should begin to increase
in the next few hours over central KS. Expect that scattered showers
and storms will develop over central KS and move to the east
northeast through the late morning hours. The NAM is the aggressive
with keeping the lift across the forecast area through the early
afternoon. Consensus is that the instability this morning will be
around 1000-2000 j/kg and given the convection will be elevated the
shear will be limited. Therefore expect that these storms will stay
below severe limits. All of this is in to response of a weak front
stretched across central KS. A surface low pressure will deepen over
northeast CO later today, which will lift the front into southwest
NE. Soundings show that an elevated mix layer builds over the area
this afternoon, which should prevent any surface based convection.
Current water vapor shows an on going MCS in southeast MT supported
by a mid level shortwave. This wave will track over the northern
plains later today, and should initiate convection in SD, while
additional development is possible near the surface low pressure in
western NE. These clusters of storms could develop into several MCSs
that will move east southeastward during the evening hours. The low
level jet is forecasted to increase during this time frame, and may
support an MCS to move into portions of northeast KS, and or may
initiate additional convection over any existing cold pools across
eastern NE. There will be plenty of instability across the forecast
area, and sufficient shear needed to sustain a balanced cold pool
with the environment. As of now the most most likely track for an
MCS will be eastern NE and western IA. Any MCS will pose a risk for
damaging wind especially for areas along and north of I-70 through
the overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
Frontal boundary sagging southward out of the northern plains into
western Kansas by late Sunday afternoon slows to a near stop through
the overnight hours into early Monday. Stronger flow to the north
and overnight LLJ also focus better chances north of the area late
Sunday night into early Monday. Initial impacts on temperatures
will be for a warm boost on Sunday as the mid level thermal ridge
ahead of the front rises into northeast Kansas, and have highs
from the lower 90s far northeast to near 102 out in central
Kansas, with overnight lows holding generally in the low 70s west
to middle 70s east. Could get a break with some cool outflow from
storms to the northeast. Have only kept low PoPs for early Sunday
and again in the overnight hours as think most storms will stay
north and east. Surface high advances farther south and east into
Monday, as upper flow takes a shift to the west northwest. This
could give one last day in the low to middle 90s before
temperatures ramp up for the week. Some models generating very
light QPF for Monday, but outside the boundary to focus on, not
seeing a strong source of lift and have just kept a slight chance
near or north of the front on Monday.
Northeasterly return of the 850mb front brings warm advection over
eastern Kansas Monday night, and have slight to chance for precip
mainly north of I70, pivoting over the eastern counties through
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures rise out west back to upper 90s,
spreading into the eastern counties by Wednesday afternoon. Many
locations expected to see the century mark for Thursday and Friday
as the center of the upper high shifts over southern Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
For the 18Z TAFs, chances of showers or storms making it into the
terminals overnight remains too low to mention. The higher impact
to aviation likely coming in the form of an increasing LLJ between
07-14Z time frame which should veer over the region from the
southwest up to the mid 40kt range. Otherwise, aviation impacts
seem small for the time frame.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1140 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016
Main weather impact today will be thunderstorm development later
this afternoon. Convection models [HRRR/NMM] as well as NAM/RAP
indicate storms should develop over northeast Colorado after 21Z
and move ENE across extreme northern Kansas and southern Nebraska
this evening. NAM shows a lot of CINH through the day over all
but Colorado, so the scenario of formation there seems plausible.
While convection models keep precip on the scattered side, the NAM
hints at a more organized complex along NE/KS border by 9pm-
midnight which could throw down a decent cold pool and associated
outflow over northern half of the CWA tonight. Have tailored
forecast to keep precip in northern counties this evening, mostly
north of Highway 36.
On Sunday, guidance suggests a weak cold front will move through
the CWA in the morning with moist upslope flow behind it by
afternoon, which should assist in storm development over Colorado
during the afternoon ultimately moving into western Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday Night)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016
Latest upper air analysis shows northwest flow over the plains with
an upper level ridge axis to the west. Multiple small scale short
wave troughs were in the flow around the ridge to the west.
Today through Monday the weather pattern will continue to be active
as numerous upper level short wave troughs move across the Tri-State
Area bringing chances for rain with them.
This morning there may be some lingering thunderstorms east of
Highway 83 ahead of an upper level short wave trough. These storms
will be east of the area by mid morning if they do develop. Any
patchy fog that developed around sunrise will be gone by mid morning
too.
During the afternoon the cold front that moved through the area
yesterday will move back north as a warm front. Meanwhile an upper
level short wave trough will move across the northern part of the
Tri-State Area north of the warm front. With lower CINH ahead of
the warm front and lower dew point depressions at the LCL, am
expecting isolated to scattered storms to develop north of Highway
36. Most of the storm activity will be north of the area. Behind
the front the warmer air mass will allow the breezy low level jet to
mix to the ground, producing winds similar to yesterday or a bit
stronger.
During the afternoon the surface low in East Central Colorado will
push the dry line to the KS/CO border. However the dry line will be
behind the warm front in the drier more stable air so am not
expecting any storm development along the dry line as a result.
Strong to severe storms are expected north of the warm front this
afternoon into the early evening. Large hail up to baseball size
will be possible with the strongest storms. Damaging winds will
also be possible. There may be a threat for tornadoes north of the
warm front. However am not sure if the 0-1km shear will be strong
enough to support tornadic development north of the front.
This evening the upper level short wave trough will continue to move
across the northern part of the area. Meanwhile the front will
continue northward and briefly stall over the northern border of the
area during the overnight hours. By this time the short wave trough
and associated storm activity will be east of the area. Before
sunrise the front will be pushed back south as a cold front.
Sunday morning the cold front will stall along the southeast and the
western border. During the day the upper level flow will be
laminar. Toward evening an upper level short wave trough will move
over East Central Colorado from the west. Am expecting storms to
fire off the dry line along the western border of the Tri-State
Area. The storms should remain over East Central Colorado since the
lift from the upper level short wave trough will not extend very far
across the CO state line if at all.
During the evening the short wave trough will progress across the
Tri-State Area. Soundings show the majority of the low dew point
depressions to be above 600mb, so am not expecting there to be very
much storm coverage as the short wave trough moves across the area.
Monday the warm front will move back north to roughly Highway 24.
Behind the front drier, warmer air will move into the southern half
of the Tri-State Area. A few upper level short wave troughs will
move across the area during the day. However most of the low dew
point depressions will be in the mid and upper levels of the
environment. If any precipitation does occur am thinking it will be
from elevated showers associated with the passage of these short
wave troughs. There may be enough CAPE for a thunderstorm or two to
develop.
Monday evening a stronger upper level short wave trough will move
across the Tri-State Area. The front will move north of the Tri-
State Area by midnight. Meanwhile mid and upper level dew points
will increase as well leading to a better chance for storms to
develop with the trough passage. Storms may train along the front as
the front moves northward. This may lead to training thunderstorms
along the front. The storm activity will end from west to east
across the Tri-State Area during the overnight hours as the short
wave trough exits the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016
Tuesday through Friday shows strong ridging over the central CONUS.
For the most part the GFS and European agree on upper and mid level
patterns in the beginning of the period. Each day has potential
precipitation chances via the GFS, the European is a little drier at
times. Due to the slight differences between the two models slight
PoPs were included the days where a stronger signal was prevalent in
either model. The days precipitation chances are possible (primarily
Thursday and Friday) the moisture will move up into the CWA from
Arizona and the Gulf of California. As the end of the long term
period approaches the models start to differ slightly in upper level
pattern. The GFS has ridging over the western portion of the CONUS
and weak troughing in the east; that pattern is the primary driving
factor for precipitation chances. The European on the other hand has
the ridge more east (more over the central CONUS) and amplified than
the GFS; which explains the drier signal. Overall, this pattern will
limit moisture and PoP chances until the ridge weakens or moves
east. Do to the strength of the ridge, temperatures will be in the
upper 90s to low 100s in the beginning of the period. The latter
half of the period could see slightly cooler temperatures if the GFS
holds true, which is what is currently forecasted.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016
VFR at KGLD through the period. Thunderstorm development this
afternoon is expected to remain well northwest and north of the
terminal. Low level wind shear will develop after 02Z as a strong
low level jet develops around sunset.
At KMCK, VFR this afternoon into early evening. Thunderstorms are
forecast to develop over northeast Colorado late this afternoon
and eventually track across southern Nebraska approaching the
terminal in the 02-06Z time frame with gusty winds and MVFR
ceilings.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DLF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1140 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016
Main weather impact today will be thunderstorm development later
this afternoon. Convection models [HRRR/NMM] as well as NAM/RAP
indicate storms should develop over northeast Colorado after 21Z
and move ENE across extreme northern Kansas and southern Nebraska
this evening. NAM shows a lot of CINH through the day over all
but Colorado, so the scenario of formation there seems plausible.
While convection models keep precip on the scattered side, the NAM
hints at a more organized complex along NE/KS border by 9pm-
midnight which could throw down a decent cold pool and associated
outflow over northern half of the CWA tonight. Have tailored
forecast to keep precip in northern counties this evening, mostly
north of Highway 36.
On Sunday, guidance suggests a weak cold front will move through
the CWA in the morning with moist upslope flow behind it by
afternoon, which should assist in storm development over Colorado
during the afternoon ultimately moving into western Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday Night)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016
Latest upper air analysis shows northwest flow over the plains with
an upper level ridge axis to the west. Multiple small scale short
wave troughs were in the flow around the ridge to the west.
Today through Monday the weather pattern will continue to be active
as numerous upper level short wave troughs move across the Tri-State
Area bringing chances for rain with them.
This morning there may be some lingering thunderstorms east of
Highway 83 ahead of an upper level short wave trough. These storms
will be east of the area by mid morning if they do develop. Any
patchy fog that developed around sunrise will be gone by mid morning
too.
During the afternoon the cold front that moved through the area
yesterday will move back north as a warm front. Meanwhile an upper
level short wave trough will move across the northern part of the
Tri-State Area north of the warm front. With lower CINH ahead of
the warm front and lower dew point depressions at the LCL, am
expecting isolated to scattered storms to develop north of Highway
36. Most of the storm activity will be north of the area. Behind
the front the warmer air mass will allow the breezy low level jet to
mix to the ground, producing winds similar to yesterday or a bit
stronger.
During the afternoon the surface low in East Central Colorado will
push the dry line to the KS/CO border. However the dry line will be
behind the warm front in the drier more stable air so am not
expecting any storm development along the dry line as a result.
Strong to severe storms are expected north of the warm front this
afternoon into the early evening. Large hail up to baseball size
will be possible with the strongest storms. Damaging winds will
also be possible. There may be a threat for tornadoes north of the
warm front. However am not sure if the 0-1km shear will be strong
enough to support tornadic development north of the front.
This evening the upper level short wave trough will continue to move
across the northern part of the area. Meanwhile the front will
continue northward and briefly stall over the northern border of the
area during the overnight hours. By this time the short wave trough
and associated storm activity will be east of the area. Before
sunrise the front will be pushed back south as a cold front.
Sunday morning the cold front will stall along the southeast and the
western border. During the day the upper level flow will be
laminar. Toward evening an upper level short wave trough will move
over East Central Colorado from the west. Am expecting storms to
fire off the dry line along the western border of the Tri-State
Area. The storms should remain over East Central Colorado since the
lift from the upper level short wave trough will not extend very far
across the CO state line if at all.
During the evening the short wave trough will progress across the
Tri-State Area. Soundings show the majority of the low dew point
depressions to be above 600mb, so am not expecting there to be very
much storm coverage as the short wave trough moves across the area.
Monday the warm front will move back north to roughly Highway 24.
Behind the front drier, warmer air will move into the southern half
of the Tri-State Area. A few upper level short wave troughs will
move across the area during the day. However most of the low dew
point depressions will be in the mid and upper levels of the
environment. If any precipitation does occur am thinking it will be
from elevated showers associated with the passage of these short
wave troughs. There may be enough CAPE for a thunderstorm or two to
develop.
Monday evening a stronger upper level short wave trough will move
across the Tri-State Area. The front will move north of the Tri-
State Area by midnight. Meanwhile mid and upper level dew points
will increase as well leading to a better chance for storms to
develop with the trough passage. Storms may train along the front as
the front moves northward. This may lead to training thunderstorms
along the front. The storm activity will end from west to east
across the Tri-State Area during the overnight hours as the short
wave trough exits the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016
Tuesday through Friday shows strong ridging over the central CONUS.
For the most part the GFS and European agree on upper and mid level
patterns in the beginning of the period. Each day has potential
precipitation chances via the GFS, the European is a little drier at
times. Due to the slight differences between the two models slight
PoPs were included the days where a stronger signal was prevalent in
either model. The days precipitation chances are possible (primarily
Thursday and Friday) the moisture will move up into the CWA from
Arizona and the Gulf of California. As the end of the long term
period approaches the models start to differ slightly in upper level
pattern. The GFS has ridging over the western portion of the CONUS
and weak troughing in the east; that pattern is the primary driving
factor for precipitation chances. The European on the other hand has
the ridge more east (more over the central CONUS) and amplified than
the GFS; which explains the drier signal. Overall, this pattern will
limit moisture and PoP chances until the ridge weakens or moves
east. Do to the strength of the ridge, temperatures will be in the
upper 90s to low 100s in the beginning of the period. The latter
half of the period could see slightly cooler temperatures if the GFS
holds true, which is what is currently forecasted.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2016
VFR at KGLD through the period. Thunderstorm development this
afternoon is expected to remain well northwest and north of the
terminal. Low level wind shear will develop after 02Z as a strong
low level jet develops around sunset.
At KMCK, VFR this afternoon into early evening. Thunderstorms are
forecast to develop over northeast Colorado late this afternoon
and eventually track across southern Nebraska approaching the
terminal in the 02-06Z time frame with gusty winds and MVFR
ceilings.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DLF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016
...Updated Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
Much quieter weather pattern unfolding for SW Kansas. A virtually
clear sky early this afternoon. S/SE winds will become strong and
gusty this afternoon, in response to a 994 mb surface low near
Limon, Colorado and about a 10 mb surface pressure gradient
between Syracuse and Kiowa. Some gusts of 30-35 mph will be noted.
12z NAM and HRRR model runs, which did an excellent job
forecasting last night`s thunderstorms, both keep tonight`s
expected MCS activity mainly north of SW Kansas, across NW Kansas
into Nebraska. Kept a slight chance of convection for northern
Ellis county through tonight, as that zone will be closest to the
Nebraska convection, but am not expecting much. A strong
pronounced low level jet is progged by all models to develop after
sunset, with 850 mb winds as high as 60 kts. As such, south winds
will remain quite elevated all night. This, in turn, will keep
temperatures quite elevated, with most locales only falling to the
lower 70s Sunday morning.
Sunday...Mostly sunny and hot. Strong upper high begins to build
strongly into the plains, with 500 mb heights rising sharply from
590 dm Saturday, to 594 dm Sunday afternoon. Afternoon
temperatures will be hotter in response, but not as hot as some
guidance indicates. Lack of downslope, the upper high organizing
east of SW KS near the Ozarks, and most importantly, lush
vegetation and standing water from recent rainfall...will all slow
down the heating trend. GFS/MAV/MEX guidance in the 100s is too
hot for Sunday. Forecasted upper 90s for most zones, and wouldn`t
be surprised if I am still several degrees too warm. NAM/ECMWF
both suggest perhaps an isolated thunderstorm across the far W/NW
zones late Sunday afternoon, but with weak shear and warming
temperatures aloft, am not expecting much.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
For Sunday, a shortwave trough moves across the Northern Plains
pushing a frontal system into western Kansas. Winds are warm and
southerly near Dodge and south and more easterly north of the front.
Highs will be around 100 near Dodge City and south and slightly
cooler north in the mid to upper 90s. Models show little to no
chances for storms with the front at this time.
After Sunday, upper level ridging and warming build deeply into the
Plains with dry conditions and highs in the upper 90s to around 100
each day.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016
Airports expected to remain free of thunderstorms through this
evening. Perhaps an isolated -TSRA west of GCK this afternoon, and
TSRA appear likely north of HYS tonight, but kept any mention of
convection out of the 18z TAFs. Strong S/SE winds will impact
aviation operations this afternoon, gusting over 30 kts at times,
in response to 994 mb surface low near Limon Colorado. A strong
pronounced low level jet is forecasted tonight, with NAM
forecasting 850 mb winds near 60 kts. Expect southerly winds to
remain elevated overnight, along with widespread low level wind
shear.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 94 74 99 70 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 95 71 97 69 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 97 71 100 70 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 98 72 101 70 / 10 0 10 10
HYS 90 72 97 71 / 10 20 10 20
P28 94 75 100 73 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Turner