Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/15/16
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 73 89 70 90 / 50 40 30 20
Camden AR 77 93 75 95 / 50 30 30 40
Harrison AR 69 86 69 87 / 50 40 30 40
Hot Springs AR 75 92 75 92 / 70 40 30 30
Little Rock AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Monticello AR 77 92 75 93 / 70 40 30 40
Mount Ida AR 73 91 72 91 / 70 50 30 30
Mountain Home AR 70 87 70 87 / 50 40 30 30
Newport AR 73 89 71 90 / 50 40 30 20
Pine Bluff AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Russellville AR 74 91 74 91 / 70 50 30 30
Searcy AR 73 90 72 91 / 50 40 30 30
Stuttgart AR 75 91 73 92 / 50 40 30 30
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.AVIATION...
Forecasts will continue to reflect MCS type development...most
likely to affect the forecast area between 14/22 and 15/03z.
Expect scattered areas of MVFR conditions due to fog between 15/06
and 15/15z.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1058 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
UPDATE...
Near term conditions will depend on a number of mesoscale
features. MCV analyzed over west-central Arkansas at 1530z will
continue eastward this afternoon. A decaying outflow boundary is
now located from near Dumas...to near Hot Springs. Instability
analysis indicates a fair amount of convective overturning has
occurred this morning across northeast sections of the state.
Approaching convection...across northern Oklahoma...to southeast
Kansas...will have a favorable environment to reach western
sections of the forecast area by mid afternoon.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
A cluster of SHRA/TSRA is moving south across NRN sections of the
state this morning...with additional isolated to scattered
activity developing across all but SRN sections of the state. The
NRN terminals are seeing MVFR or lower conditions at this
time...which will be story under the more intense convection. Will
see some improvements for these sites later this morning as this
activity drops south. Elsewhere...will see generally scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning into the early afternoon hrs...then a break
in the precip should be seen by mid to late afternoon. This
evening into the overnight period...additional SHRA/TSRA will be
possible....with MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more
intense convection. However...only mention VCTS at this time after
00Z as timing and location are uncertain.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over
portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much
stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and
portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the
activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the
weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over
portions of AR.
The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding
the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity
to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the
HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems
reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the
next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may
remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR
over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to
briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail.
Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN
counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time.
While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar
imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and
SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this
morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than
the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential
over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN
counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be
seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this
morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this
outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of
the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large
hail.
Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the
precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a
new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late
tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen
with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX
threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this
overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may
vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the
Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be
seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs
of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl
pass acrs the region.
For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story.
Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading
into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized
convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s...
with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl
likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the
FA.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
642 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
A complex of storms was located across northeast CO and northwest
KS early this morning. This complex of thunderstorms will begin to
forward propagate to the east and southeast along a deeper moisture
and instability axis that extends from south central KS and northwest
OK, northwest into northeast CO. If this complex of storms becomes
severe with damaging wind gusts as it moves southeast across west
central KS it may move into the southwest and southern counties of
the CWA after 12Z with the potential for severe wind gusts and heavy
rainfall generally south of I-70. The 00Z Nam model keeps the
complex southwest and south of the CWA during the morning hours. The
WRF solutions move the complex of storms across the southwest
counties after 12Z, then across the southern counties of the CWA
through the mid and late morning hours. The GFS moves the complex
due east across southern NE which clips the northern counties of the
CWA. The experimental HRRR moves the complex of storms east along
and just south of I-70 from 12Z through 17Z. The best chance for
strong to severe winds from this complex of thunderstorms will be
along and south of the nearly stationary outflow boundary which
extends along I-35 from south of KC, west-southwest to north of
Emporia, then due west. south of Salina, to north of Great Bend. If
this boundary drifts northward then there may be more of chance for
stronger winds up to I-70. Also, during the mid morning hours across
east central KS the boundary layer may mix deep enough with steep
lapse rates from 850mb to the surface for stronger winds aloft to be
entrained to the surface, if the complex of storms maintains it
intensity as it shifts east-southeast across the southern counties
of the CWA.
Wednesday afternoon through Tonight, the complex of storms will move
east-southeast across western MO. The outflow boundary may push
south of the CWA but should wash out across southeast KS. A weak
front will push southeast across the CWA and thunderstorms may
redevelop along and south of the weak surface front. The WRF and
experimental HRRR solutions show the surface outflow boundary
maintaining itself through the afternoon hours along and southeast
of I-35 where a line of storms or a complex of storms will develop
and push southeast of the CWA during the early to mid evening hours.
The NAM and GFS develop thunderstorms farther north across northeast
KS along the front during the afternoon hours, then forms a complex
of thunderstorms that tracks southward across east central KS during
the evening hours. At this time, I`m leaning more towards the meso
scale models. Any complex of thunderstorms may produce severe wind
gusts and heavy rainfall. Initial isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development may produce large hail. The NAM model
increases MLCAPE to over 5,000 J/KG this afternoon, which may be a
bit over done but if we see insolation this afternoon with dewpoints
in the mid 70s, we could see MLCAPES in the 3,000 to 4,000 J/KG
range. It will depends on where the storms develop to which areas
will have the best chances for severe thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours.
Highs Today will depend on the track and timing of the mid and late
morning thunderstorm complex and if the cloud cover will scatter out
during the afternoon hours. If we see insolation this afternoon most
areas could see lower to mid 90s. If the thunderstorm complex moves
across the southern counties a few hours slower then east central KS
may keep cloud cover through the afternoon hours and highs may only
reach the mid and upper 80s. I think we will see break in the cloud
cover later this afternoon and have went with highs in the lower 90s
across the eastern and northern counties with mid 90s across the
southeast counties of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
Tomorrow the lingering frontal boundary should be located somewhere
in east central or southeast KS. The consensus is that it may be
located just south of the forecast area especially with storm
outflows pushing southward and reinforcing the boundary near the
OK/KS state line. The 12 km NAM is aggressive with developing an MCS
within the upslope flow over the high plains, and moving that MCS
along this boundary during the day Thursday. The WRF solutions
develop diurnal storms along the boundary in southeast KS. The other
larger scale models do not support this MC, and instead show
isolated to scattered storms developing late afternoon due to peak
heating and low level convergence similar to the WRF. There is a
chance this activity remains further south depending on the boundary
location. Given the uncertainty with morning showers and storms it
is difficult to determine if the environment will become favorable
for strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon. Instability if
realized should support a damaging wind threat and possibly hail. An
MCS during the afternoon would pose a wind threat as well.
A shortwave may also move across KS in the late evening into the
overnight and possibly support an MCS that could clip the far
southern forecast area. The track of this wave keeps gradually
shifting southward. Northwest flow aloft continues with subtle waves
moving over the region. Return flow will develop across the area
bringing moisture back northward. This pattern will favor possible
MCSs especially during the overnight with the strengthening of the
low level jet. This scenario may occur Friday night, but is too far
out to nail down exact timing and location. Mid level ridge begins
to build over KS, which pushes the storm track further north. One
more cold front may try to reach northern KS Sunday night and
Monday, but may only bring a small chances for storms to the area.
Beyond that looks rather dry and hot as the ridge centers overhead
into late week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
A complex of thunderstorms across portions of central KS will
continue moving east down the I-70 corridor throughout the
morning hours. Introduce VCTS at 13Z and TSRA at 14Z for the
Manhattan terminal. TSRA activity is expected to arrive at the
Topeka terminals near 15Z with VCTS possible after 14Z. Winds are
expected to shift to a northerly direction during the thunderstorm
activity with gusts 35+ knots. Thunderstorm activity should exit
MHK by 17Z and by 18Z at the Topeka terminals. Another round of
thunderstorm are possible this evening into the overnight. Will
continue to refine timing on those thunderstorms in future
outlooks.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Baerg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
302 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
A complex of storms was located across northeast CO and northwest
KS early this morning. This complex of thunderstorms will begin to
forward propagate to the east and southeast along a deeper moisture
and instability axis that extends from south central KS and northwest
OK, northwest into northeast CO. If this complex of storms becomes
severe with damaging wind gusts as it moves southeast across west
central KS it may move into the southwest and southern counties of
the CWA after 12Z with the potential for severe wind gusts and heavy
rainfall generally south of I-70. The 00Z Nam model keeps the
complex southwest and south of the CWA during the morning hours. The
WRF solutions move the complex of storms across the southwest
counties after 12Z, then across the southern counties of the CWA
through the mid and late morning hours. The GFS moves the complex
due east across southern NE which clips the northern counties of the
CWA. The experimental HRRR moves the complex of storms east along
and just south of I-70 from 12Z through 17Z. The best chance for
strong to severe winds from this complex of thunderstorms will be
along and south of the nearly stationary outflow boundary which
extends along I-35 from south of KC, west-southwest to north of
Emporia, then due west. south of Salina, to north of Great Bend. If
this boundary drifts northward then there may be more of chance for
stronger winds up to I-70. Also, during the mid morning hours across
east central KS the boundary layer may mix deep enough with steep
lapse rates from 850mb to the surface for stronger winds aloft to be
entrained to the surface, if the complex of storms maintains it
intensity as it shifts east-southeast across the southern counties
of the CWA.
Wednesday afternoon through Tonight, the complex of storms will move
east-southeast across western MO. The outflow boundary may push
south of the CWA but should wash out across southeast KS. A weak
front will push southeast across the CWA and thunderstorms may
redevelop along and south of the weak surface front. The WRF and
experimental HRRR solutions show the surface outflow boundary
maintaining itself through the afternoon hours along and southeast
of I-35 where a line of storms or a complex of storms will develop
and push southeast of the CWA during the early to mid evening hours.
The NAM and GFS develop thunderstorms farther north across northeast
KS along the front during the afternoon hours, then forms a complex
of thunderstorms that tracks southward across east central KS during
the evening hours. At this time, I`m leaning more towards the meso
scale models. Any complex of thunderstorms may produce severe wind
gusts and heavy rainfall. Initial isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development may produce large hail. The NAM model
increases MLCAPE to over 5,000 J/KG this afternoon, which may be a
bit over done but if we see insolation this afternoon with dewpoints
in the mid 70s, we could see MLCAPES in the 3,000 to 4,000 J/KG
range. It will depends on where the storms develop to which areas
will have the best chances for severe thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours.
Highs Today will depend on the track and timing of the mid and late
morning thunderstorm complex and if the cloud cover will scatter out
during the afternoon hours. If we see insolation this afternoon most
areas could see lower to mid 90s. If the thunderstorm complex moves
across the southern counties a few hours slower then east central KS
may keep cloud cover through the afternoon hours and highs may only
reach the mid and upper 80s. I think we will see break in the cloud
cover later this afternoon and have went with highs in the lower 90s
across the eastern and northern counties with mid 90s across the
southeast counties of the CWA.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
Tomorrow the lingering frontal boundary should be located somewhere
in east central or southeast KS. The consensus is that it may be
located just south of the forecast area especially with storm
outflows pushing southward and reinforcing the boundary near the
OK/KS state line. The 12 km NAM is aggressive with developing an MCS
within the upslope flow over the high plains, and moving that MCS
along this boundary during the day Thursday. The WRF solutions
develop diurnal storms along the boundary in southeast KS. The other
larger scale models do not support this MC, and instead show
isolated to scattered storms developing late afternoon due to peak
heating and low level convergence similar to the WRF. There is a
chance this activity remains further south depending on the boundary
location. Given the uncertainty with morning showers and storms it
is difficult to determine if the environment will become favorable
for strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon. Instability if
realized should support a damaging wind threat and possibly hail. An
MCS during the afternoon would pose a wind threat as well.
A shortwave may also move across KS in the late evening into the
overnight and possibly support an MCS that could clip the far
southern forecast area. The track of this wave keeps gradually
shifting southward. Northwest flow aloft continues with subtle waves
moving over the region. Return flow will develop across the area
bringing moisture back northward. This pattern will favor possible
MCSs especially during the overnight with the strengthening of the
low level jet. This scenario may occur Friday night, but is too far
out to nail down exact timing and location. Mid level ridge begins
to build over KS, which pushes the storm track further north. One
more cold front may try to reach northern KS Sunday night and
Monday, but may only bring a small chances for storms to the area.
Beyond that looks rather dry and hot as the ridge centers overhead
into late week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016
For the 06z TAFs, the main focus is on the potential for scattered
storms near the TAF sites. The initial scattered storms should be
focused predominantly across east central Kansas overnight,
potentially impacting KTOP/KFOE so have a tempo group for TSRA.
Short-range models have been suggesting that storms across far
northwest KS may sustain themselves and advance into north central
KS by Wednesday morning, so added a tempo group for KMHK. A break
from thunderstorms is expected during the day before another round
of storms is expected to impact the TAF sites sometime during the
late afternoon through evening hours on Wednesday.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1200 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016
Water vapor imagery showing upper wave rotating north into central
Canada around an upper low over southern Saskatchewan, with another
wave forming to its west. Overnight convective complex had
dissipated over southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri with
southeast winds returning early in the day. This has allowed rather
moist air to return and status to be prevalent for most areas early
this afternoon. Weak surface trough remains over the area from
southwest to northeast.
Precipitation chances remain the main challenge through Wednesday
afternoon. Surface-based convection looking more and more unlikely
this afternoon and evening with destabilization retarded by the
stratus. A weak mid-level wave appears to have initiated a few
elevated showers in central portions of the area and isolated
activity seems possible into the late afternoon as this moves off.
The more active period should come in the late evening to overnight
hours as the low level jet increases resulting in decent convergence
and isentropic lift around 850mb. With little other focusing/forcing
mechanism and little model agreement, have kept pops in chance
range, highest in east where the best moisture/upglide is suggested.
Elevated shear and CAPE values could support some severe wind and
hail. Thickness and Corfidi vectors suggest activity propagating
southeast with time and have followed along in the overnight and
early morning hours. Next front still looking to enter the area
from the northwest in the late afternoon. Expect better insolation
ahead of this front for more potential for storms with it though
mid level capping aloft does look to increase somewhat. Will keep
chance pops mainly in the north. Severe weather potential exists
here too with wind and hail the main issues in steep mid and low
level lapse rates.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016
Wednesday Night through Friday...
Speed and position of the incoming front for Wednesday evening into
the overnight hours has some timing differences both in synoptic
models and mesoscale propagation, but for the most part sweeps the
front and associated convection across the area in this time period.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible but difficult to pinpoint
depending on the speed of the boundary, but should be noted as a
hazard. Atmosphere looks to have a chance to heat up and destabilize
before the boundary comes in, and as such these storms may bring
damaging winds or hail as a hazard as well.
Could likely see a break between overnight storms and
redevelopment on Thursday late, before once again being reignited
along and to our south as the low level jet increases. Both
Wednesday night and Thursday night models also indicate shortwave
trofs moving over the frontal boundary and aiding in convective
development. Think the front will be shifted southward into Friday
as high pressure moves into the Central Plains from the northeast,
and have diminished and shifted chances to the south as a result.
Highs Thursday are forecast near 90, and a few degrees cooler on
Friday behind the front in the middle 80s.
Friday Night through Tuesday...
Shortwaves in the synoptic flow leave the weekend in another
unsettled pattern. Chances for storms are seen Friday night through
Sunday night, although Sunday looks like dry periods will be
possible during the afternoon and evening. Monday and Tuesday look
to be dry as an upper level high pressure system moves over the
Central Plains. As for temperatures through the period, highs will
range from the mid-80s to lower 90s, with seasonable low
temperatures near the lower 70s forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016
For the 06z TAFs, the main focus is on the potential for scattered
storms near the TAF sites. The initial scattered storms should be
focused predominantly across east central Kansas overnight,
potentially impacting KTOP/KFOE so have a tempo group for TSRA.
Short-range models have been suggesting that storms across far
northwest KS may sustain themselves and advance into north central
KS by Wednesday morning, so added a tempo group for KMHK. A break
from thunderstorms is expected during the day before another round
of storms is expected to impact the TAF sites sometime during the
late afternoon through evening hours on Wednesday.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67/Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016
An area of low pressure will slide westward along the KS/OK
border this evening reaching far southwestern Kansas by sunrise
tomorrow. Meanwhile, an associated warm front will shift from
central Kansas tonight into western Kansas by sunrise tomorrow.
Partly cloudy skies and dry conditions are expected with the
exception of across northern Kansas where a slight chance of
thunderstorms will be possible after midnight. The frontal
boundary slides back east tomorrow do to an upper level
disturbance moves into the area. A few thunderstorms may form
along this boundary late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening,
mainly across central Kansas. Winds will generally be from the
southeast tonight shifting to more of a northerly direction
tomorrow as the frontal boundary moves through the CWA. As for
temperatures, lows tonight look to range from the mid 60s across
eastern Colorado to mid 70s across south central Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are expected to reach into the upper 90s with some areas
along the KS/OK border reaching around 100 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2016
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday into Friday as
upper level disturbances moves through the area with an upslope
easterly component of the wind at the surface. A few storms
Thursday afternoon may become severe with large hail and damaging
winds being the main concern. Moisture will be abundant in the
lower levels of the atmosphere creating an increase of cloudiness
across western Kansas. Thunderstorms chances look to be confined
across central Kansas Saturday morning with decreasing cloudiness
as the day progresses. Models then suggest the upper level high
across the Southern United States to build and shift northward
into the remainder of the Plains. This will bring a drier weather
pattern to western Kansas into at least the first part of next
week. As for temperatures, highs look to be in the 90s Thursday
then upper 80s to lower 90s Friday. A warming trend is expected
this weekend into the first part of next week reaching into the
upper 90s to around 100 degrees by Sunday. Lows look to dip into
the 60s through Friday night then increase into the upper 60s to
lower 70s this weekend into the early part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016
VFR/SKC expected to prevail through the TAF forecast period.
Thunderstorms over NE Colorado at midnight are forecasted by
NAM/HRRR models to organize into a complex and track SE toward
HYS toward the 09-12z time frame. Have enough confidence in these
solutions to add a convective TEMPO group for HYS starting at 09z.
Otherwise, surface winds through Wednesday will trend NWly and
then NEly behind another weak frontal boundary. Convection
Wednesday afternoon/evening will be isolated at best, with
confidence on aviation impacts low.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 98 69 94 / 10 10 10 40
GCK 68 97 68 92 / 10 10 10 30
EHA 68 100 67 95 / 10 10 10 30
LBL 69 101 69 97 / 10 10 10 30
HYS 69 97 69 89 / 30 20 20 30
P28 75 103 72 97 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1030 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016
Dry conditions will prevail this afternoon with increasing
cloudiness this afternoon and evening in advance of a fast moving
short wave followed by a warm front. Short term guidance has come
into better agreement at midday as the HRRR and RAP have
increasingly moved toward the NAM12 and SREF solutions. The ARW and
NMM models however, have backed off on precip chances. Overall, I
increased PoPs across the CWA in response to the model guidance
coming into better agreement. The environment will become
increasingly favorable for thunderstorms around or after 00Z in
eastern Colorado, spreading eastward into northwest Kansas as we
head through the evening and overnight. CAPE values will increase
through the afternoon to near 2100 J/Kg as the warm front approaches
with bulk shear at 30kt to 50kt (RAP), and DCAPE in the 400 J/Kg to
1000 J/Kg range. There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms
that could include large hail and damaging wind gusts.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016
Low chances for thunderstorms will continue Wednesday night and
Thursday morning in the wake of an earlier cold frontal passage.
Favorable low level upslope combined with weak shortwave trough
aloft will result in limited coverage during those time
periods...but increasing Thursday afternoon and evening with
destabilization. Moderate to strong instability is forecast with
deep layer shear of 40-50kts...an environment conducive to
supercells. Only negative is lack of well-defined synoptic scale
forcing which may limit overall coverage of storms. The wet
pattern continues into Friday with the upper flow becoming more
northwest and possible embedded shortwave trough providing lift.
Afternoon instability not as impressive as Thursday...only
moderate values are forecast...although deep layer shear remains
around 40kts. Severe storms will be possible once again.
Temperatures will be above normal on Wednesday...then below normal
on Thursday and Friday.
Upper ridge will begin to strengthen over the weekend. Other than
some isolated storms Saturday afternoon developing on the higher
terrain of eastern Colorado a hot and dry period will begin for
the region. This will continue through at least Tuesday.
Temperatures will return to the upper 90s/lower 100s by the
beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2016
KGLD...mvfr/ifr conditions possible from taf issuance through
about 09z-10z with winds from the east-southeast/southeast under
10kts. Short range models insisting that convection currently a
row of counties north of the terminal will move east-southeast or
southeast into axis of elevated instability and possibly producing
near severe/severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds
and locally heavy rainfall to the terminal. They also suggest that
stratus will develop immediately behind the convection for a few
hours producing scattered to broken low cloudiness. After 10z
winds start to veer to the west, north, northeast and east through
the rest of the taf period with some gusts near 20kts possible.
Strato cumulus/cumulus clouds possible during the morning hours
with perhaps some mid clouds during the afternoon and evening.
KMCK...vfr conditions expected through the period. May have
thunderstorms in the vicinity or on top of the terminal in the
08z-10z timeframe with winds light from the southeast. After 10z
winds are similar to KGLD with west then northwest, north,
northeast and east through the rest of the taf period. A few gusts
near 20kts possible. Fair weather cumulus clouds possible during
the daylight and early evening hours.
&&
.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 89 70 89 74 / 40 30 20 10
Camden AR 95 75 96 77 / 40 30 20 10
Harrison AR 87 68 86 71 / 40 30 40 10
Hot Springs AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 30 10
Little Rock AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 40 30 10
Monticello AR 92 75 94 76 / 40 30 20 10
Mount Ida AR 91 73 92 75 / 50 30 40 10
Mountain Home AR 88 69 87 72 / 40 30 40 10
Newport AR 90 71 90 75 / 40 30 20 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 20 10
Russellville AR 91 72 91 74 / 40 30 40 10
Searcy AR 90 71 91 74 / 40 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 73 92 75 / 40 40 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...62 / Long Term...56
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1203 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Most of the precip has moved out of the state very early this
morning...and will generally see dry conditions overnight.
However...some fog will be possible due to the rainfall seen on
Thu evening. Some SHRA/TSRA currently ongoing over portions of
OK...and may push into SWRN AR overnight into Fri morning...but
potential to see impacts at terminals is low. There will remain
chances for SHRA/TSRA for Fri...with VCTS and PROB30 mentioned.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 73 89 70 90 / 50 40 30 20
Camden AR 77 93 75 95 / 50 30 30 40
Harrison AR 69 86 69 87 / 50 40 30 40
Hot Springs AR 75 92 75 92 / 70 40 30 30
Little Rock AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Monticello AR 77 92 75 93 / 70 40 30 40
Mount Ida AR 73 91 72 91 / 70 50 30 30
Mountain Home AR 70 87 70 87 / 50 40 30 30
Newport AR 73 89 71 90 / 50 40 30 20
Pine Bluff AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Russellville AR 74 91 74 91 / 70 50 30 30
Searcy AR 73 90 72 91 / 50 40 30 30
Stuttgart AR 75 91 73 92 / 50 40 30 30
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.AVIATION...
Forecasts will continue to reflect MCS type development...most
likely to affect the forecast area between 14/22 and 15/03z.
Expect scattered areas of MVFR conditions due to fog between 15/06
and 15/15z.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1058 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
UPDATE...
Near term conditions will depend on a number of mesoscale
features. MCV analyzed over west-central Arkansas at 1530z will
continue eastward this afternoon. A decaying outflow boundary is
now located from near Dumas...to near Hot Springs. Instability
analysis indicates a fair amount of convective overturning has
occurred this morning across northeast sections of the state.
Approaching convection...across northern Oklahoma...to southeast
Kansas...will have a favorable environment to reach western
sections of the forecast area by mid afternoon.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
A cluster of SHRA/TSRA is moving south across NRN sections of the
state this morning...with additional isolated to scattered
activity developing across all but SRN sections of the state. The
NRN terminals are seeing MVFR or lower conditions at this
time...which will be story under the more intense convection. Will
see some improvements for these sites later this morning as this
activity drops south. Elsewhere...will see generally scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning into the early afternoon hrs...then a break
in the precip should be seen by mid to late afternoon. This
evening into the overnight period...additional SHRA/TSRA will be
possible....with MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more
intense convection. However...only mention VCTS at this time after
00Z as timing and location are uncertain.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over
portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much
stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and
portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the
activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the
weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over
portions of AR.
The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding
the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity
to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the
HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems
reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the
next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may
remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR
over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to
briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail.
Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN
counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time.
While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar
imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and
SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this
morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than
the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential
over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN
counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be
seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this
morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this
outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of
the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large
hail.
Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the
precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a
new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late
tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen
with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX
threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this
overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may
vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the
Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be
seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs
of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl
pass acrs the region.
For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story.
Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading
into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized
convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s...
with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl
likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the
FA.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1114 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
MCS exited east central Kansas early this afternoon with outflow
boundary pushing north to near the Nebraska border. Airmass in this
are much more unstable and allowing scattered convection to form,
aided by a strong compact upper jet over Iowa. Other convection
continues to develop in northwest Kansas in apparent mid level
convergence, but where moisture is also rather rich in the low levels
with dewpoints around 60 into northeast Colorado. Final area of note
is in northeast Montana where convection is rather widespread with
an upper wave making ESE progress into the Plains.
Tonight into Friday is again a low confidence forecast. Models
continue to struggle, even rapid update guidance, and this is not
surprising given mesoscale forcing from continued MCS activity.
Latest HRRR and experimental HRRR similar in convection developing
over central portions of the area late this afternoon, but have
doubts given lack of forcing and only slow airmass recovery. Will
continue with small chances into the early evening with northwest
Kansas activity having at least small chances to persist. Most
models keep the bulk of the night dry with little forcing for ascent
and drier air around 850mb behind the old front. Dewpoints down into
the middle 60s for much of the area should help negate fog chances,
but could have clear skies along with light winds again tonight for
redevelopment. Attention for convection should turn to the northwest
with decent agreement in storms persisting southeast with the
Montana wave. This may not arrive until midday Friday at the
earliest, but have kept small pops for late tonight west and on east
during the day. Wind speeds aloft and some directional shear will
help support a marginal severe weather concern.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Initial concern will be if there is any ongoing convection Friday
evening as models differ with MCS timing. The NAM has plenty of
convection at the start of the period, while the other operational
models are dry in the evening and then bring an MCS southeast across
Nebraska and into northern Kansas Late Friday night and early
Saturday. Have gone with a blend of solutions emphasizing later
timing and lingering through Saturday morning. Saturday night a wave
moves out of the Rockies and across the Central Plains.
Thunderstorms look to remain mainly across Nebraska and Iowa with
and may also affect areas north of interstate 70. Upper level ridge
slowly builds northward Sunday and Sunday night. A wave is forecast
to move across the Northern and Central Plains Sunday night which
will bring a frontal boundary into southern Nebraska by Monday
morning. The front begins to light northward Monday night into
Tuesday, then lifts northeast on Tuesday. May see some convection
along the boundary and southeastward moving storms would perhaps
clip the far northeast counties of northeast Kansas through Tuesday
morning. The upper ridge builds across the Central Plains Tuesday
through Thursday with the main westerlies near the Canadian border.
High temperatures in the 80s are expected on Saturday then warming
into the 90s for the rest of the period. Areas of north central
Kansas and Central Kansas will warm to near 100 from Tuesday through
Thursday. Lows in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
Light winds should eventually lead to sufficient cooling for some
MVFR VIS conds to develop mainly at TOP overnight. Light or calm
winds should become ENE Friday while a cluster of t-storms is
expected to drop south out of NE and could impact MHK by midday
but confidence in timing and location remain too low to mention
anymore than VCTS.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Omitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Observational data indicate weakening convection...across
central...through northwest portions of the state.
Some immediate clearing is noted behind this activity...and
should allow for some destabilization to support scattered mid to
late afternoon convection.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 89 70 89 74 / 40 30 20 10
Camden AR 95 75 96 77 / 40 30 20 10
Harrison AR 87 68 86 71 / 40 30 40 10
Hot Springs AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 30 10
Little Rock AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 40 30 10
Monticello AR 92 75 94 76 / 40 30 20 10
Mount Ida AR 91 73 92 75 / 50 30 40 10
Mountain Home AR 88 69 87 72 / 40 30 40 10
Newport AR 90 71 90 75 / 40 30 20 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 20 10
Russellville AR 91 72 91 74 / 40 30 40 10
Searcy AR 90 71 91 74 / 40 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 73 92 75 / 40 40 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...62 / Long Term...56
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1203 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Most of the precip has moved out of the state very early this
morning...and will generally see dry conditions overnight.
However...some fog will be possible due to the rainfall seen on
Thu evening. Some SHRA/TSRA currently ongoing over portions of
OK...and may push into SWRN AR overnight into Fri morning...but
potential to see impacts at terminals is low. There will remain
chances for SHRA/TSRA for Fri...with VCTS and PROB30 mentioned.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 73 89 70 90 / 50 40 30 20
Camden AR 77 93 75 95 / 50 30 30 40
Harrison AR 69 86 69 87 / 50 40 30 40
Hot Springs AR 75 92 75 92 / 70 40 30 30
Little Rock AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Monticello AR 77 92 75 93 / 70 40 30 40
Mount Ida AR 73 91 72 91 / 70 50 30 30
Mountain Home AR 70 87 70 87 / 50 40 30 30
Newport AR 73 89 71 90 / 50 40 30 20
Pine Bluff AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Russellville AR 74 91 74 91 / 70 50 30 30
Searcy AR 73 90 72 91 / 50 40 30 30
Stuttgart AR 75 91 73 92 / 50 40 30 30
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.AVIATION...
Forecasts will continue to reflect MCS type development...most
likely to affect the forecast area between 14/22 and 15/03z.
Expect scattered areas of MVFR conditions due to fog between 15/06
and 15/15z.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1058 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
UPDATE...
Near term conditions will depend on a number of mesoscale
features. MCV analyzed over west-central Arkansas at 1530z will
continue eastward this afternoon. A decaying outflow boundary is
now located from near Dumas...to near Hot Springs. Instability
analysis indicates a fair amount of convective overturning has
occurred this morning across northeast sections of the state.
Approaching convection...across northern Oklahoma...to southeast
Kansas...will have a favorable environment to reach western
sections of the forecast area by mid afternoon.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
A cluster of SHRA/TSRA is moving south across NRN sections of the
state this morning...with additional isolated to scattered
activity developing across all but SRN sections of the state. The
NRN terminals are seeing MVFR or lower conditions at this
time...which will be story under the more intense convection. Will
see some improvements for these sites later this morning as this
activity drops south. Elsewhere...will see generally scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning into the early afternoon hrs...then a break
in the precip should be seen by mid to late afternoon. This
evening into the overnight period...additional SHRA/TSRA will be
possible....with MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more
intense convection. However...only mention VCTS at this time after
00Z as timing and location are uncertain.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over
portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much
stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and
portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the
activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the
weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over
portions of AR.
The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding
the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity
to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the
HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems
reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the
next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may
remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR
over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to
briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail.
Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN
counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time.
While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar
imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and
SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this
morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than
the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential
over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN
counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be
seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this
morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this
outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of
the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large
hail.
Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the
precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a
new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late
tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen
with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX
threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this
overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may
vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the
Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be
seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs
of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl
pass acrs the region.
For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story.
Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading
into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized
convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s...
with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl
likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the
FA.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
311 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures across the interior will gradually
moderate over the weekend as an upper level trough develops
offshore the Pacific Northwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery showed patchy fog and stratus creeping
northward toward Pt Arena early this morning. A few of the high resolution
models, namely the HRRR and ARW, showed winds becoming southerly nearshore
this morning. Based on satellite imagery and the sparse surface observations,
the HRRR/ARW are most likely correct. Expect at least patchy stratus
and fog along the immediate shoreline of Mendocino county this morning.
The models were incongruent with wind fields this afternoon. The consensus
is for winds to become northerly and northwesterly which should force
the stratus back southward.
Other than the patchy fog and stratus, skies have been clear across
the region overnight. A few high clouds will stream across the area
today, however, sunshine will remain abundant. High tempertures today
will be very similar to yesterday in the interior. 24HR trend
monitor indicated many sites a few degrees warmer than this time
last night. Thus, expect many readings in the 90s with a
handful of sites around 100-105F. Warm weather conditions will
continue over the weekend, but moderate slightly as an upper level
trough develops offshore the Pacific Northwest coast. By Sunday,
max temperatures in the hottest valley locations will most likely
be only in the mid 80s. Quite pleasant for this time of year in
the interior. This trough will likely produce an increase in night
and morning coastal stratus Saturday night into Sunday. It is
unclear at this time if stratus will clear out at all along the
coast. It may take most of the day to burn off the stratus. The
approaching upper trough does not appear to have much in the way
of moist air. The GFS does indicate some potential for isolated
showers over the Trinity mountains. The NAM12 and ECMWF were drier
and not as unstable. For now will lean toward the drier
NAM12/ECMWF.
Long range models maintain a weak trough offshore through much of
next week but have it gradually shifting westward as upper level
ridging over the central portion of the country expands northwestward
each day. Thus, expect interior temperatures to gradually warm to
near or above normal levels mid to late next week. Coastal areas
will most likely remain near normal which means the usual dose of
night and morning stratus overcast.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR to IFR conditions and light winds to calm conditions will
continue at KCEC through early this morning with the lower conditions
due to reduced ceilings and visibilities. VFR conditions and light winds
to calm conditions will prevail at KACV through the early morning with
MVFR conditions possible before sunrise due to reduced ceilings and/or
visibilities. VFR conditions and moderate and gusty winds will prevail at
KCEC and KACV this afternoon. VFR conditions and light winds to calm
conditions will continue at KUKI the next few days.
&&
.MARINE...An offshore high pressure ridge coupled with an inland thermal
low pressure trough will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the
waters the next few days. Therefore the winds and seas will remain elevated
through this weekend. Winds and seas will be higher across the outer waters.
The winds and short period seas will begin diminishing Saturday. Small craft
advisories will continue across the southern near shore waters through early
Sunday morning. Gale warnings will continue across the outer waters through
early Sunday morning due to gale force wind gusts. A gale warning will
continue across the northern near shore waters through early Saturday morning.
Winds and seas will peak today and tonight.
&&
.EKA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ450.
Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ470-475.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ455.
&&
$$
Visit us at http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
Follow us on facebook and twitter at:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
258 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday
Data from local radars indicate widely scattered...weak returns
across the forecast area...moving eastward. Available instability
is not particularly strong this afternoon...and expect only a
small increase in coverage through the early evening.
Similar conditions are expected for Saturday...before a pronounced
upper level ridge starts to build over the southern plains and
mid south...
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
...Upper level ridging is expected to amplify over the Central
and South Plains from Sunday through early next week. This will
place large scale forcing for subsidence in place over the
region... generally favoring a dry forecast from Sunday through
next week. Subsidence will lead to sinking air over the region
which will favor mostly sunny skies allowing the high summer sun
angle to help build up the heat throughout the week as well. This
strong heating will only serve to reinforce the strength of the
upper level ridge which makes this hot and dry weather pattern
very likely to remain in place for several days. The current
forecast calls for heat index values ranging from 105 to 110
degrees across much of Arkansas each afternoon from Monday through
Friday. This will likely necessitate a heat advisory for most of
the state for next week which will be issued on Sunday if the
forecast remains on track.
Because the center of the upper level ridge is expected to remain
anchored over the Great Plains versus directly over Arkansas...
there is a chance that thunderstorms will become more likely in
later forecasts. With Arkansas sitting on the outer periphery of the
upper ridge...small scale upper level disturbances may be able to
get close enough to provide some lift and cause isolated to
scattered storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both advertise this...although in an
inconsistent manner. Instead of advertising a 20 percent chance of
storms each day which seems misleading...kept precipitation chances
at 5 to 10 percent each day without mentioning storms in the
forecast. Adding storms into the forecast for very weak forcing or
due to the influence of upstream convection is a short term forecast
consideration. The primary message for next week should be: Prepare
for the heat! Five days of heat index values above 105 degrees may
require some planning to mitigate the persistence of the heat for
next week. Any small rain chances will only provide a brief respite
from the persistent heat.
This hot and dry pattern looks to persist into next weekend for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 70 89 74 94 / 30 20 10 10
Camden AR 73 93 77 97 / 30 20 0 10
Harrison AR 68 88 71 92 / 20 20 10 10
Hot Springs AR 72 91 76 95 / 30 20 0 10
Little Rock AR 74 92 76 96 / 30 30 10 10
Monticello AR 75 93 76 96 / 30 30 0 10
Mount Ida AR 71 90 74 94 / 20 20 10 10
Mountain Home AR 69 90 72 94 / 20 20 10 10
Newport AR 71 90 75 95 / 30 30 10 10
Pine Bluff AR 74 91 76 95 / 30 30 0 10
Russellville AR 71 91 74 96 / 20 20 10 10
Searcy AR 72 91 74 95 / 30 30 10 10
Stuttgart AR 73 92 75 96 / 40 30 0 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...66
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.AVIATION...
Forecasts will reflect best chances for diurnally enhanced...late
afternoon convection. Expect scattered MVFR conditions due to fog
overnight.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
UPDATE...
Observational data indicate weakening convection...across
central...through northwest portions of the state.
Some immediate clearing is noted behind this activity...and
should allow for some destabilization to support scattered mid to
late afternoon convection.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.UPDATE...
Observational data indicate weakening convection...across
central...through northwest portions of the state.
Some immediate clearing is noted behind this activity...and
should allow for some destabilization to support scattered mid to
late afternoon convection.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
611 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Some SHRA/TSRA will remain possible through this TAF period...with
some MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more intense
activity. Coverage of this convection should be less widespread
than seen on Thu afternoon/evening however. Winds will be mainly
variable in direction...especially in and around any outflow
boundaries.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
302 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
After an active afternoon and evening on Thu...much quieter
conditions are ongoing across the CWA early this morning. Even
though quieter conditions are ongoing...some scattered SHRA have
developed over the past hr or two from NWRN AR...SE into central
sections of the state. This activity is slowly drifting east...and
keep best pops early this morning in this region of the CWA along
an area of elevated convergence. Elsewhere...should only see some
isolated SHRA or TSRA...and the current POPs reflect this scenario.
By near sunrise...the convection over portions of OK will drift SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...with increasing POPs
across this region of the state through just after sunrise.
As for the rest of this Fri...depending on what residual outflow
boundaries develop and where they end up...expect some additional
convective activity to develop late this morning and through the
afternoon hrs. NW flow aloft will remain through this period...and
any upper disturbances passing overhead will aide in triggering new
convective activity...especially along these outflow boundaries. As a
result...have chance POPs mentioned for scattered convection. Temps
will warm into the 80s and 90s...and should see temps in many
locations a few deg cooler than on Thu.
Expect some precip chances to remain in the forecast through Sat
afternoon...with nearly similar conditions expected tomorrow as
expected this Fri. However...the upper flow will be a bit
weaker...with any upper level disturbance being slightly weaker.
Even so...some scattered SHRA/TSRA could develop during the peak
heating of the day. Chances for precip then decrease Sat night with
the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this morning
as all medium range models continue to show upper level ridging
building over the middle of the country.
Ridge will be broad initially but as upper troughs get established on
both coasts, pattern amplifies over the nations mid section with a
strong ridge and upper high getting established in the middle of the
country. Upper ridge/high will then dominate through the remainder of
the period.
Center of the upper ridge/high will be centered just to the west of
the state keeping the area in southerly flow and a constant supply of
gulf moisture. As the ridge/high gets established, high temperatures
will rise into the 90s to near the century mark during the day and
only drop into the 70s at night. With elevated moisture levels, heat
indices will likely exceed criteria and headlines will be needed.
The only real chance of precipitation other than the diurnal, garden
variety thunderstorm will be Tuesday as a weak disturbance traverses
the eastern periphery of the ridge. Even so, precipitation chances
will be be minimal and restricted to the east and northeast.&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 89 70 89 74 / 40 30 20 10
Camden AR 95 75 96 77 / 40 30 20 10
Harrison AR 87 68 86 71 / 40 30 40 10
Hot Springs AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 30 10
Little Rock AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 40 30 10
Monticello AR 92 75 94 76 / 40 30 20 10
Mount Ida AR 91 73 92 75 / 50 30 40 10
Mountain Home AR 88 69 87 72 / 40 30 40 10
Newport AR 90 71 90 75 / 40 30 20 10
Pine Bluff AR 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 20 10
Russellville AR 91 72 91 74 / 40 30 40 10
Searcy AR 90 71 91 74 / 40 40 20 10
Stuttgart AR 91 73 92 75 / 40 40 20 10
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...62 / Long Term...56
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1203 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...
&&
.AVIATION...
Most of the precip has moved out of the state very early this
morning...and will generally see dry conditions overnight.
However...some fog will be possible due to the rainfall seen on
Thu evening. Some SHRA/TSRA currently ongoing over portions of
OK...and may push into SWRN AR overnight into Fri morning...but
potential to see impacts at terminals is low. There will remain
chances for SHRA/TSRA for Fri...with VCTS and PROB30 mentioned.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...62
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
229 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday
Immediate forecast concern is the MCS approaching the forecast
area from eastern Oklahoma. This convective system is expected to
continue to slide to the southeast...along a well defined
instability gradient...exiting the forecast area by 15/04z.
Recent output of CAM type models have converged towards this
solution. Near term forecasts account for the expected movement
of this system.
An additional complex is expected to form overnight to the west
of the initial system...and again move to the
southeast...affecting at least western sections after 15/06z.
Mid level lapse rates...and forcing along smaller scale boundaries will
provide support for convection during the rest of this period.
Conditions supporting organized convective complexes...as of those
supporting today`s activity...are not expected. Any severe
thunderstorm activity will be limited to diurnally
enhanced...pulse type single cells.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
If I could sum up the extended forecast in two words it would be
"ridge" and "hot". An upper level ridge will dominate through the
entire period and above normal temperatures will be the rule.
Afternoon max values could top out over 100 in some areas.
There will be some low precipitation chances toward the latter half
of the period as the center of the ridge settles in over the
mid plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 73 89 70 90 / 50 40 30 20
Camden AR 77 93 75 95 / 50 30 30 40
Harrison AR 69 86 69 87 / 50 40 30 40
Hot Springs AR 75 92 75 92 / 70 40 30 30
Little Rock AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Monticello AR 77 92 75 93 / 70 40 30 40
Mount Ida AR 73 91 72 91 / 70 50 30 30
Mountain Home AR 70 87 70 87 / 50 40 30 30
Newport AR 73 89 71 90 / 50 40 30 20
Pine Bluff AR 76 92 74 92 / 60 40 30 30
Russellville AR 74 91 74 91 / 70 50 30 30
Searcy AR 73 90 72 91 / 50 40 30 30
Stuttgart AR 75 91 73 92 / 50 40 30 30
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term...55 / Long Term...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
.AVIATION...
Forecasts will continue to reflect MCS type development...most
likely to affect the forecast area between 14/22 and 15/03z.
Expect scattered areas of MVFR conditions due to fog between 15/06
and 15/15z.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 1058 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
UPDATE...
Near term conditions will depend on a number of mesoscale
features. MCV analyzed over west-central Arkansas at 1530z will
continue eastward this afternoon. A decaying outflow boundary is
now located from near Dumas...to near Hot Springs. Instability
analysis indicates a fair amount of convective overturning has
occurred this morning across northeast sections of the state.
Approaching convection...across northern Oklahoma...to southeast
Kansas...will have a favorable environment to reach western
sections of the forecast area by mid afternoon.
55
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016
DISCUSSION...
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
AVIATION...
A cluster of SHRA/TSRA is moving south across NRN sections of the
state this morning...with additional isolated to scattered
activity developing across all but SRN sections of the state. The
NRN terminals are seeing MVFR or lower conditions at this
time...which will be story under the more intense convection. Will
see some improvements for these sites later this morning as this
activity drops south. Elsewhere...will see generally scattered
SHRA/TSRA this morning into the early afternoon hrs...then a break
in the precip should be seen by mid to late afternoon. This
evening into the overnight period...additional SHRA/TSRA will be
possible....with MVFR or lower conditions expected under the more
intense convection. However...only mention VCTS at this time after
00Z as timing and location are uncertain.
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA have been moving SE over
portions of the central and ERN CWA early this morning...with much
stronger and organized SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing across SRN MO and
portions of central and NERN OK. Will have to keep an eye on the
activity north and west of the CWA this morning as it may impact the
weather through late this morning and into early this afternoon over
portions of AR.
The past few runs of the HRRR have been doing fairly well regarding
the overall location and timing of the ongoing convective activity
to the north and west of the CWA. Over the next several hrs...the
HRRR does show the convective activity in OK continue to drop SE
towards the WRN and SWRN counties of the CWA...which seems
reasonable given the current trends. Have increased pops through the
next few hrs across the WRN and SWRN counties as a result. There may
remain some SVR WX potential with this activity as it remains SVR
over ERN OK at this 3 am hr. So...may continue to see some strong to
briefly SVR level winds...and maybe some large hail.
Have also increased pops this morning across the NRN and NERN
counties as the convective activity across MO drops south over time.
While this ongoing activity may weaken over time...recent radar
imagery showing an outflow boundary starting to dive south and
SW...which should trigger additional SHRA/TSRA through later this
morning as it progresses south. This activity remains weaker than
the ERN OK convection...and will probably see less SVR WX potential
over the next few hrs as there is less MU CAPE in the NRN and NERN
counties. Even so...some strong to briefly SVR level winds may be
seen as this activity drops south. As temps warm later this
morning...may see better potential for some isolated SVR WX as this
outflow continues south through central and even SERN sections of
the state. The main threats will be damaging winds...and some large
hail.
Late this afternoon into the evening hrs...will see a break in the
precip potential...but additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible as a
new upper disturbance moves ESE into NRN sections of the state late
tonight into Fri morning. Some strong to SVR storms could be seen
with this new disturbance...with damaging winds the primary SVR WX
threat. Some large hail may also be seen. Depending on how this
overnight and early Fri morning system evolves...the forecast may
vary as a result. At this time....keep slight to chance pops for the
Fri into Fri night time frame as new convection may be
seen...especially along any residual outflow boundaries.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Fntl bndry wl be lingering ovr the FA on Sat...with lingering chcs
of SHRA/TSRA. Activity wl be aided by a weak upr impulse that wl
pass acrs the region.
For the rest of the pd...hot and humid conds wl be the main story.
Upr rdg is still fcst to expand EWD acrs the Plains States heading
into next week. The rdg wl basically put a lid on any organized
convection...although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out
durg the aftn/early evening hrs. Highs wl be mainly in the 90s...
with a few locations apchg the century mark. Aftn heat indices wl
likely reach or exceed the 105 degree mark over a large part of the
FA.
&&
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
Aviation...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
At 20Z, Water Vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave continuing to
move through central and eastern Nebraska. The remnants of a
complex of storms from last night has slowly been working into
southeastern Nebraska. With relatively weak forcing associated with
the shortwave and conditional mid level lapse rates. This has kept
an area of showers and some stronger storms over south central
portions of Nebraska as afternoon heating has destabilized the local
environment ahead of storms. Meanwhile, upslope flow near a
stationary boundary over western KS and southeastern Colorado was
helping to support afternoon convection over the region. A weak
cold front remains stretched over south central and into east
central portions of Kansas into Missouri. Additionally, and outflow
boundary from the previously mentioned complex of storms over
Nebraska has finally made its way into northeastern and north
central Kansas and is currently stretched along the I-70 vicinity.
The forecast over the next 24 hours is such that small precip
chances will remain until the afternoon on Saturday. The complex of
remnant activity has struggled to build into the outlook area but
should continue to cause showers and potential thunderstorms over
mainly the northern counties and western counties of the CWA into
early this evening and tonight. SPC mesoanalysis suggests that
surface and MLCAPE is around 2500-3000 J/kg along I-70 but not much
has formed along the outflow boundary. Overnight, expecting that an
MCS will form and probably stay off to the southwest of the area,
but there is some potential that a few storms could work their way
into Central Kansas. But the bigger mechanism for overnight storm
potential seems to be associated with an area of isentropic lift
developing as the next upper low works into the Northern Rockies
into the Northern Plains by early morning helping to develop a warm
boundary stretching into the Central Plains region. Expect if
storms do form that they will generally work from southwest to
northeast through the area by mid to late morning time frame.
Temps have been suppressed a few degrees from the previous forecast
this afternoon across northern counties as the cooler outflow has
worked through the area earlier with a few showers and increased
cloud cover. Clouds should clear tomorrow with temps reaching the
mid to upper 80s over the area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
Saturday Night through Monday...
MCS exited east central Kansas early this afternoon with outflow
boundary pushing north to near the Nebraska border. Airmass in this
are much more unstable and allowing scattered convection to form,
aided by a strong compact upper jet over Iowa. Other convection
continues to develop in northwest Kansas in apparent mid level
convergence, but where moisture is also rather rich in the low levels
with dewpoints around 60 into northeast Colorado. Final area of note
is in northeast Montana where convection is rather widespread with
an upper wave making ESE progress into the Plains.
Tonight into Friday is again a low confidence forecast. Models
continue to struggle, even rapid update guidance, and this is not
surprising given mesoscale forcing from continued MCS activity.
Latest HRRR and experimental HRRR similar in convection developing
over central portions of the area late this afternoon, but have
doubts given lack of forcing and only slow airmass recovery. Will
continue with small chances into the early evening with northwest
Kansas activity having at least small chances to persist. Most
models keep the bulk of the night dry with little forcing for ascent
and drier air around 850mb behind the old front. Dewpoints down into
the middle 60s for much of the area should help negate fog chances,
but could have clear skies along with light winds again tonight for
redevelopment. Attention for convection should turn to the northwest
with decent agreement in storms persisting southeast with the
Montana wave. This may not arrive until midday Friday at the
earliest, but have kept small pops for late tonight west and on east
during the day. Wind speeds aloft and some directional shear will
help support a marginal severe weather concern.
Monday Night through Friday...
The main headline for the extended period is: HEAT! Upper-level
ridging will continue to build across the Central and Southern
Plains throughout next week. A few thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday morning/early afternoon as a weak wave rides across the
ridge. Tuesday`s high temperatures are bit tricky, as the rate of
cloud cover clearing will greatly impact temperatures. Temperatures
the remainder of the period will remain hot, with high temperatures
in the upper 90s to perhaps low 100s and lows in the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees. These very hot temperatures coupled with dew points
in the upper 60s and lower 70s will make for very uncomfortable
conditions. Heat indicies are expected to be in the 105 to 110+
degree range Wednesday through Friday. Unfortunately, the heat wave
looks to continue into next weekend as well.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
Small chances for thunderstorms to develop near the TAF sites
into this afternoon and early evening. Medium confidence due to
the overall environment and low level lift. So have mentioned VCTS
at all sites. Lower confidence at this point for overnight
development as better chances will be well off to the southwest
and west of the terminals. Low confidence of reduced vis at this
point near the 12Z time frame as increasing clouds are expected so
have left out of the forecast at this time. Winds veer to the SSE
with time but remain fairly light until probably after the period.
&&
.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Baerg/53
AVIATION...Drake